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- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, April 2011, Issue 137

Content Human mind Next Event Brazil Automotive Forecast to 2013 Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future The State of the World’s Children 2011 Recommended book SOCAP Europe Futurist Portrait: Michael Anissimov Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. Ever since humans became aware of their mind, they have been questioning its origin. Is the mind part of the physical body, or does it exists by it’s own? New developments within the neurosciences address this matter in a way that will very likely change our view on ourselves and the world for good. The discovery of mirror neurons provides a neurological basis for social behaviour and it might even give an explanation for the explosive evolution of culture amongst human beings. Will these developments lead to the conclusion that we are all nothing but very complicated computers in the end, which can be replaced by robots? And where does this leave philosophical concepts as consciousness, free will, morality and art for instance? …. interested in knowing more …. join us at the event about the future of the Human Mind – Thursday, 14 April! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Human Mind Brain Anatomy and Function. This 3D animation shows the anatomy and function of the brain using color coded areas. Consciousness, Creativity & the Brain In this University of Washington program, award-winning writer, director, and producer David Lynch discusses his films and his 30-year relationship with Transcendental Meditation, and its role in his creative process. He is joined by physicist John Hagelin, who was featured in the documentary ‘What The Bleep Do We Know?’ and neuroscientist Dr. Fred Travis, Director of the Center for Brain, Consciousness, and Cognition at Maharishi University of Management. The program is sponsored in joint partnership by the College of Arts and Sciences and the University of Washington Alumni Association. Brain Development UCSD Cognitive scientist Joan Stiles reveals the latest understandings about the intricate relationship between biology and external influences in the development of the brain. Consciousness, Qualia, and Self Dr. V.S. Ramachandran, Director of the Center for Brain and Cognition at UCSD, discusses consciousness, qualia, and self. Next Event  the future of the Human Mind Thursday, April 14, 2011Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Location: HTIB, 1e Weteringplantsoen 2c, 1017 SJ Amsterdam The speakers and topics are Luc SalaPersonality types and your brain Humberto Schwab, Philosopher Human mind is more body Maurizio Zollo, Bocconi Dean’s Chaired Professor in Strategy and Corporate Responsibility, Bocconi University; Program Director, Neuroscientific Foundations of Strategic DecisionsStrategic management and neuro-sciences Moderated by Adda van Zanden, Actress Exhibition by Maartje van Buuren Brazil Automobile Forecast to 2013 Brazil is one of the fastest growing automobile manufacturing markets in the world. Driven by the strong domestic demand and tax reforms implemented proactively by the government, the country’s automobile sector has been reporting positive growth rates, despite a slowdown in the overall automobile industry across the world. Moreover, the country is far ahead of its regional counterparts, i.e. Argentina and Mexico, and produced around 3.64 Million automobiles (excluding motorcycles) during 2010. However, the industry was dominated by the passenger cars segment. According to the research report “Brazil Automobile Forecast to 2013”, despite the recent economic crisis, sales of passenger cars and LCVs in Brazil are anticipated to post a CAGR of over 10% and 20% respectively during 2011-2014. The passenger car segment will continue dominating the overall market sales by the end of the forecast period, owing to the relatively low penetration rate of this segment in the country. Flex-fuel vehicles remain the most accepted vehicle segment among Brazilians due to their multi-choice of refueling system. With supportive government regulations on biofuel usage, sales of flex-fuel vehicles have been registering blistering growth rates for the past few years. This segment accounted for nearly 81% of the total automobile sales in 2010, and the share is anticipated to rise further in future. Although Brazilian automobile industry faced decline in exports due to the appreciation of the Brazilian currency in 2008, it boosted the automobile imports. The research indicates that the industry has been feeling marginal effects of the worldwide economic crisis, however the future remains bright in the long term. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Brain – the ‘task machine’ The portion of the brain responsible for visual reading doesn’t require vision at all, according to new research presented in the journal Current Biology. Scientists came to this conclusion after brain imaging studies of blind people as they read words in Braille showed activity in precisely the same part of the brain that lights up when sighted readers read. They said their findings challenged the textbook notion that the brain is divided up into regions that are specialised for processing information coming in via one sense or another. ‘The brain is not a sensory machine, although it often looks like one; it is a task machine,’ says Dr Amir Amedi, senior lecturer at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Brussels wants no oil-fuelled cars in cities by 2050 The European Commission plans to step up its battle against oil-fuelled cars, and is drawing up strict targets to halve their urban usage by 2030 and “phase them out by 2050,” according to an EU road map on transport to be published on Monday (28 March) and seen by EurActiv. These objectives will play an instrumental role in achieving the more comprehensive target of cutting CO2 emissions from transport by 60% by 2050. Currently, a quarter of EU greenhouse gas emissions come from transport. The Commission is therefore proposing an ambitious plan which eyes significant reductions of emissions especially in road transport, while it intends to increase rail traffic, on the grounds that is by far cleaner and more environment-friendly. The Commission plan targets mainly urban and road freight transport. The objective of car-free cities by mid-century is to be pursued through fiscal measures, promotion of alternative transport systems, and building of the necessary infrastructure to move to a widespread use of electric and clean cars. The State of the World’s Children 2011 by UNICEF The State of the World’s Children 2011: Adolescence – An Age of Opportunity examines the global state of adolescents; outlines the challenges they face in health, education, protection and participation; and explores the risks and vulnerabilities of this pivotal stage. The report highlights the singular opportunities that adolescence offers, both for adolescents themselves and for the societies they live in. The full report can be downloaded click hereToday’s youth faces an increasingly uncertain world where climate change, rapid urbanization, the economic recession and rising unemployment pose unprecedented challenges. There are 1.2 billion adolescents across the world, nine out of ten of these young people live in developing countries. Millions are denied their basic rights to quality education, health care, protection and exposed to abuse and exploitation. Recognizing the need to turn this vulnerable age into an age of opportunity, UNICEF has dedicated it flagship publication State of the World’s Children 2011 to adolescents. This video highlights the importance of investing in adolescents for breaking the cycles of poverty and inequity. Recommended Book Emerging Mindby Vilaynur Ramachandran This is a scintillating introduction to the latest thinking on the brain and the mind by the world’s leading expert. Neuroscience can now begin to unlock the key to the self. Our knowledge of the brain has progressed so rapidly that it will change the way we think of ourselves as human beings. It will change our notion of understanding. This is a revolution which will have impact on all our lives. Neuroscientists are gathering new empirical evidence about consciousness and human nature; they are picking up where the great earlier thinkers like Freud, Darwin, Charcot and others began. This evidence begins to give substance to some of the grand statements and intuitive leaps made in the nineteenth and early twentieth century about the nature of the self. SOCAP Europe Europe’s first impact investing conference comes to Amsterdam May 30th – June 1st, join Europe’s key social impact innovators in Amsterdam at SOCAP/Europe, Europe’s first impact investing conference at the intersection of money and meaning. SOCAP/Europe will kick off with an opening night reception followed by two days of deep-dive sessions into the social enterprise space. Convening at the historic site of the first stock exchange, Beurs van Berlage, SOCAP/Europe gathers leading investors, entrepreneurs, philanthropists, government funders, and innovators for a dynamic conversation. Together we will explore models, form partnerships and fund innovative solutions to the world’s great challenges. Speakers include Marilou van Golstein Brouwers (Triodos Bank), Jean-Phillipe de Schrevel (Blue Orchard), HRH Prince Carlos de Bourbon de Parme (INSID), Matt Flannery (Kiva). Futurist Portrait: Richard Florida Richard Florida is author of the global best-seller The Rise of the Creative Class and Who’s Your City? a national and international best seller and amazon.com book of the month. His new book, The Great Reset explains how new ways of living and working will drive post-crash prosperity. He is author of The Flight of the Creative Class and Cities and the Creative Class. His previous books, especially The Breakthrough Illusion and Beyond Mass Production, paved the way for his provocative looks at how creativity is revolutionizing the global economy. Florida is a regular correspondent for The Atlantic and a regular columnist for The Globe and Mail. He has written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, The Economist, and The Harvard Business Review. He has been featured as an expert on MSNBC, CNN, BBC, NPR and CBS, to name just a few. Richard has also been appointed to the Business Innovation Factory’s Research Advisory Council and recently named European Ambassador for Creativity and Innovation. Florida’s ideas on the “creative class,” commercial innovation, and regional development have been featured in major ad campaigns from BMW and Apple, and are being used globally to change the way regions and nations do business and transform their economies. Florida is one of the world’s leading public intellectuals on economic competitiveness, demographic trends, and cultural and technological innovation. International diplomats, government leaders, filmmakers, economic development organizations and leading Fortune 100 businesses have benefited from his global approach to problem-solving and strategy development. He is one of the world’s most sought after speakers on global trends, economics, prosperity, competitiveness and growth. Combining in-depth analysis, cutting-edge trends, a fascinating personal story, and just a touch of self-deprecating humor, it’s no wonder Florida was recently named one of Esquire Magazine’s Best and Brightest, alongside luminaries such as Bill Clinton and Jeffrey Sachs. Richard Florida’s Who’s Your City? Agenda Our Season Program 2010/2011 April 14, 201118:30-21:15 May 19, 201118:30-21:15 June 23, 201118:30-21:15   the future of the Human MindLocation: HTIB, 1e Weteringplantsoen 2c, 1017 SJ Amsterdam the future of SingularityLocation: HTIB, 1e Weteringplantsoen 2c, 1017 SJ Amsterdam the future of European DemocracyLocation: Nautiek.com, Veemkade 267, 1019 CZ Amsterdam (Ship SALVE) Past Season Events 2010/2011     Oct 14, 2010: the future of HackingNov 25, 2010: the future of HappinessJan 20, 2011: the future of Financial InfrastructureFeb 17, 2011: the future of ServicesMarch 17, 2011: the future of Shell  

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, May 2011, Issue 138

Content A Measure of Machine Intelligence Next Event Aquarius – undersea research laboratory Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future EU Strategy for equality between women and men 2010-2015 Recommended book Creative Company Conference Futurist Portrait: Michael Anissimov Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. According to the Singularity Institute, (technological) singularity is the technological creation of smarter-than-human intelligence. So simple the definition may look like, it signals the end of 5 million year human evolution with the emergence of super intelligence as a result of exponential technological development. Although different technologies are also suggested, artificial intelligence and brain interfaces are thought to be the likely ones that would first match the level of acceleration necessary to provide such an enormous change. With approximately 100 billion neurons, human brain easily surpasses today’s computer forces. However, this does not change the fact that human brain has only tripled its capacity during the entire evolution while the computing benchmarks increase exponentially, doubling every one or two years. This information hypothetically provides us necessary variables to create a timetable for closing the distance of capacity between the human brain and the foreseen technologies. The arrival to such a threshold will create a loop, or an explosion like the big bang some would say (Ray Kurzweil), which, in turn, will make it possible for instance artificial intelligence to improve its own source code, automatically capsizing the superiority of human intelligence as we have known. …. interested in knowing more and sharing thoughts and ideas…. join us at the event about the future of the Singularity – Thursday, 19 May! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief A Measure of Machine Intelligence By Peter Cochrane, Cochrane Associates UK PROLOGUE In 1997 Gary Kasparov and the world of chess was outraged when he was defeated by Deep Blue (IBM). This was a long awaited epoch; the time when man would be outclassed by machine in a game seen as intellectually superior and beyond the reach of a mere ‘clockwork’ mind. At the time sound-bites included: ‘something strange is going on; it didn’t play a regular game of chess; it didn’t play like a human; it didn’t play fair’ etc. [1]Interestingly, no one asked the most important question; how did Deep Blue win – what was the magic here? [2] The key was a new intelligence – a powerful computer that didn’t, or couldn’t, think like us. It brought something new – a new dimension, a new way of thinking and problem solving – and one devoid of emotion. That was the prime value – a new approach – and it is also the key contribution on offer from all Artificial Intelligence(s) (AI).AI was mired by controversy from the outset. [3] Unreasonable expectations, exaggerated claims, broken promises, and delayed deliverables are but a few damaging manifestations of a singular problem; a lack of understanding of complexity coupled with an inability to define and quantify intelligence. [4] To a large degree expectations were set by the depictions of Hollywood with humanoid intelligences comparable or exceeding ours. [5][6] Futurists have also been guilty of using questionable assumptions that led to graphs of the following form: Fig 1: Typical prediction curve for machine intelligence REALITY CHECKIndustry and commerce now depend upon AI for the control of engines, elevators, logistics, finance, banking, production robotics, and networks. [6] Surprisingly then, we still lack a complete understanding of what intelligence is, and how to quantify it, [7] and that HAL9000 (2001) conversation with a machine still seems a distant dream. [5]However we are constantly surprised by AI systems and the answers they contrive. On many occasions we lack the facility to fully understand, but that does not preclude us using the results! [8] Moreover, we have gradually realised that the solution of industrial, scientific and governmental problems will continue to defy human abilities, whilst AI will continue to improve as it evolves to embrace larger data sets and sensor networks. On the creativity front we have seen many of our key electronic and system inventions enhanced (or bettered) by AI, and in some quarters machine based contributions outweigh that of humans. [8] In fact the machine I am typing this article on has chips that owe more to machine design than any human contributor, and we might expect this disparity to expand further. [9][10]Our system of mathematics is a key limiter as it constrains our analysis and design of systems with large numbers of feedback/forward loops. [11] Machines know no such constraints and utilise designed and parasitic loops to advantage in a way we do not fully understand. It should come as no surprise then that we cannot fully describe and understand many key electronic elements, or indeed the non-laminar flow of fluids and gasses have to be modelled by machine. FACILE DEBATESo far the march of AI has transited several hotly contested stages, with a few more to go:1) Machines can’t think!2) Machines will never be intelligent and creative!3) Machines will never be self-aware!4) Machines will never have imagination!5) Machines will never hypothesise or conceptualise!6) Machines will never be more intelligent than us!Such arguments seem to be born out of ignorance, fear, religious belief, limited imagination and vision, but not of scientific thinking. For sure (1 & 2) above have been surpassed, [9][10] whilst (3) is currently being contested and challenged by combinations of AI and sensors. To some extent (4 – 6) remain the ‘Holy Grail’ and seem to be prospects that upset far more people than (1 – 3). They also remain some way off, but are more likely to happen than they did 20 years ago! [12]An obvious question is; why should intelligence be sacrosanct and exclusive to carbon based life systems, and why should we and other animals be so special that only we can develop self-awareness and problem solving abilities including the creation of tools? A dispassionate analysis would seem likely to come down on the side of AI! This situation almost mirrors medieval times when clerics and scholars (may have) debated [13] the number of angels on a pinhead! The fundamental problem is that we cannot describe, define, or quantify any of the fundamental aspects of the argument. [14][15] In short we have no meaningful measure of intelligence! So, a more pragmatic approach is to ignore all debate and get on with developing systems, observing their actions, and trying to understand the fundamentals – whilst periodically addressing the core question; what is intelligence, and can it be quantified? THINKING DIFFERENTThere are two ‘wisdoms’ from my student days I periodically recall. The first came from an engineering academic with a long and distinguished industrial career. His words still ring in my ears: “Mr Cochrane, whilst it is acceptable for the mathematicians, physicists and theorists to declare that there is no solution, we in engineering enjoy no such luxury. We always have to find a solution”! The second came from a mathematician with years of industrial experience. Prophetically he said: “Before you even start a problem it is worth thinking what form the answer might be, and what would be reasonable”.For me the past 40 years has seen these maxims go from strength to strength as ‘simple-minded’ linear assumptions have given way to an increasingly complex and connected world where non-linearity dominates and chaotic behaviours are the norm. [16] THE CHALLENGEIt was pure serendipity that a customer problem coincided with my efforts to establish some means of quantifying intelligence. The dilemma came in the form of an engineering challenge to compare AI systems contesting for deployment in an industrial application. Just how do you judge the efficacy of complex, and very large, AI systems?Fortunately, previous work on a similar problem had prompted the question; what would be involved in the quantification and comparison of ‘intelligent systems’ and what form might the answer take? So, I had also established that I was alone, without books or published papers offering any depth or glimmer of a solution. I was in new territory – with plenty of opinion and few facts or tried and tested methods offering any real value.At a modest estimate there are over 120 published definitions of intelligence penned by philosophers and theorists. [14][15] Unfortunately, none provide any real understanding or an iota of quantification. And the long established IQ measure by Alfred Binet (1904) is both a flawed and a singularly unhelpful idea in this instance. [17] The limitations of the approach were detailed by Binet, but ignored by those eager to apply the IQ concept in its full simplicity and meaningless authority! [18]A commonly used engineering comparison involves counting the number of processors and interconnections, and using the product as a single figure of merit. This is often combined with Moore’s Law projections to justify claims of exponential growth. [19] But this ‘product method’ seems far too simplistic to be meaningful and certainly does not reflect any notion of intelligence. In fact, machine intelligence estimates on this basis would suggest HAL9000 (2001) should be alive and well, but clearly he is not! [5] A SUBSET OF WHAT DO WE KNOW FOR SURELike a lot of simple organisms our machines focus on limited sub-sets of problems and unlike us are not ‘general purpose’ survivalists. We (homo sapiens) appear fairly unique in the combination of our mental and physical abilities – bipedal with binocular vision, apposing digits, and very broad mental powers that facilitate language, communication, conceptualisation and imagination. Whilst other carbon species have far bigger brains, better sight and hearing (and other senses), they lack the critical combinations we posses, and so do all machines to date. [20]From an engineering and theoretical basis it seemed reasonable to start at a very simple level, to try and build a model that would be both applicable, give useful results, and might then expand to the general case. Leveraging the thoughts of others on ‘thinking, intelligence, and behaviour’ we can glean interesting pointers by considering:1) Slime moulds and jellyfish (et al) [21][22] exhibit intelligent behaviour without distinct memory or processor units. They have ‘directly wired’ input sensors and output actuators – ie they chemically sense, physically propagate and devour food. Of course a proviso is that we neglect the delay between sensing and reacting as a distinct memory function, and the sensor-actuator as a one-bit-processor on the basis of being so minimal as to be insignificant. This turns out to be a good engineering approximation based on the processing and memory capabilities of far more complex machines and organic systems. Reproduced with the kind permission of Mike Johnston and Paul MorrisFig 2: Slime mould & jellyfish exhibit intelligence without a brain2) In the main our machines have memory and processing maintained as distinct, entities – FLASH, RAM, HD, but this is seldom so in organic systems where there tend to be distributed and share functionality. [23] But again this assumption of separation suffices for the class of machines being considered. Reproduced with the kind permission of Richard Greenhill and Hugo EliasFig 3: A modern robotic hand with separate sensors and actuator functions3) It turns out that whilst intelligent behaviour is possible without memory or processor, this is not true of simple sensors and actuators combined. This was recently writ large by a series of experiments on human subjects. Place a fully able human in an MRI scanner, ask then to close their eyes and imagine they are playing tennis, and their brain lights up. Now repeat that experiment with comatosed patients of many years and the same result is often evident! [24][25]So these poor victims have an input mechanism that is functional, but no means of communicating with the outside world. To the casual observer, and until very recently to the medical profession, they have appeared brain dead, mere inanimate entities, living and breathing, but non-functional!4) Colonies of relatively incapable entities such as ants, termites, bees and wasps poses a ‘hive/swarm intelligence’ that is extremely adaptive, and capable of complex behaviours. [25] Moreover, whilst the ‘rules of engagement’ of the individuals might be easy to define, the collective outcome is not! Another key feature is the part played by evolution over millennia, and the honing to become fit for purpose. Unlike us, Mother Nature optimises nothing and concentrates on fit for purpose solutions. This makes her systems extremely resilient with a high percentage of survivability overall as she is also impartial to the loss of a colony or indeed a complete species no longer suited to a changing environment. [26] Reproduced with the kind permission of HumanroboFig 4: Designed and optimised for a single purpose5) Our final observation is that all forms of intelligence encountered to date invoke state changes in their environment. A comparison of such change can be an expansion or compression of the quantity of the information or state. For example; the answer to the question ‘why is the sky blue?’ would contain a far more words and perhaps some diagrams, whilst the reply to ‘do we know why the sky is blue’ would be a simple yes! KEY ASSUMPTION & DEFINITIONSBased upon we actually know it seems entirely reasonable to assume an entropic measure to account for the reduction or increase in the system state, before and after, the application of intelligence. [27] We therefore define a measure of comparative intelligence as: (1)Applied Intelligence = The Change in Entropy = Ia = MOD{Ei -Eo} WhereEi = The input or starting entropyEo = The output or completion entropyWe take the Modulus value here as we are using the ‘state change’ as our measureEntropy = E = The amount of information to exactly define systems state And for the purpose of an efficacy measure we include the ‘time to complete’ component in the form of machine cycles (N) or FLOPs (Floating Operations): (2) For the purpose of modelling we adopt a simple system representative of engineering reality, and Fig 5 shows the relationship between Sensor (S ), Actuator (A ), Processor (P ) & Memory (M). Here it is assumed that sound, light, vibration/movement or chemicals activate the sensor and the signal si is fed to the actuator, processor and memory. The processed output of each is then fed to the actuator. We note that in many biological systems other loops feed signals back to the sensor – typically to adjust the sensitivity, or in anticipation of the actuator response, or indeed a memorized event sequence – in our case the eyes are a prime example where we continually adjust their sensitivity. However, for our immediate purpose, and the sake of clarity, it is easier to leave this aspect out of the analysis. The sum of all the processed signals results in an output from the actuator (sound, light, movement or chemicals) that influences/changes the environment. And so the ‘looped process’ continues. To help visualize this consider a robot picking up and disposing of a plastic cup or playing a game of chess by physically moving the pieces. All movement would be iterative and determined by the perceived incremental scene – a moment and movement at a time. At this point it is worth noting than numerous configurations of simpler and more complex kinds are possible. Many of these have been modelled, including multiple sensors and actuators, distributed processing and memory, with far more feedback and feed-forward loops. All have resulted in very similar outcomes. Fig 5: Assumed System Configuration(3)We can now derive a transfer function of the form: h = a(1 + m + p1 p2 + p2 m p1 ) s(4)By consolidating the weighted memory and processing elements as opposed to their complex operators, this further reduces to: h = SA(1 + M[ 1+ P ] + P )(5)Now, taking (by orders of magnitude) the dominant terms: ENGINEERING LICENCEIn the general case it is impossible to define the complex nature of the operations performed by S, A, P, M. All we can say is that they change the state of information and action according to the complex operators s(t), a(t), p(t), m(t) in sympathy with the clock cycle of the machine. In very specific situations these states can be described, but in general they cannot. For the purpose of creating a comparative intelligence measure we thus skirt this limitation by applying ‘weighting values’ denoted as: S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory. ENTROPY RULES!Using entropic change (1-2) as the defining property of intelligence, and the dominant terms, a reasonably general formula results from our analysis: (6) (7)Whilst the relative intelligence is given as:From (7) we can now confirm two essential properties by inspection:6) With zero processor and/or memory power intelligence is still possible7) With zero sensor and/or actuator power intelligence is impossibleThis is entirely consistent with our (organic) experience and experimental findings [24][25]. And further, it flies in the face of the conventional wisdom of those that worry about ‘The Singularity’ – the point at which machines take over because they outsmart us. [19][28] They assume that intelligence is growing exponentially by way of the product PM and Moore’s Law, [29][30] whilst (7) shows it is logarithmic.Fig 6: A spread of published (P.M ) based predictions v our logarithmic modelSo, if we see 1,000-fold increase in the product of Processing and Memory (P.M product) intelligence increases by a factor of only 10. Hence a full 1,000,000 increase sees intelligence grow by a just 20-fold. This is far slower than previously assumed and goes some way to explain the widening gap between prediction and reality!A further important observation is that sensors and actuators have largely been neglected as components of intelligence to date, but it is seems (7) they play a key part in the fundamental intelligence of anything! Without them there can be no ‘evident’ intelligence. MORE THAN A LEAP OF FAITHIf we make a couple of ‘big’ assumptions to further approximate the intelligence formula we can make some further interesting observations. We start by assuming that:PM >> 1 and AS PM >> 1(8)Equation (7) then becomes: If we now observe that the progress of Actuators, Sensors, Processing Power and Memory technology is exponential with time ~ eat, est, ept and emt, then the growth in intelligence derived from equation (8) looks like this: (9) Intelligence Rate of Growth ~ k.a.s.p.t This (9) implies that machine intelligence is growing linearly with time. So the obvious question is; what happens when a large number of intelligent machines are networked? If there are sufficient, and their numbers grow exponentially, then, and only then, will we see an exponential growth in intelligence. FINAL THOUGHTS What does all this mean? With the arrival of low cost sensors and their rapid deployment on the periphery of networks, and robotics, we are really much closer to achieving truly intelligent entities than ever before. Couple this with the creation of addressable databases and learning systems, then the opportunity for ‘intelligent outcomes’ is racing ahead. But for singular machines, it is a ‘logarithmic or linear race’ and not exponential! Only if we network vast and exponentially growing numbers of machines will we see the previously assumed (and feared) exponential intelligence outcome.Biological hardware and software is adaptable and evolves by mutation, and our machines can now do that too! But, biological systems are ‘born’ into a supporting ecology and the process has very definitely been from the simplest to the most complex over millennia. Our machines on the other hand are being born into an ecology that is being built top down in a few decades! Will this work as a complete support system? We don’t know – yet!We see ‘life’ exhibiting emergent and adaptable behaviours ‘fitting into a mature world’ and competing for survival. Our systems are mostly designed to be task specific with an assured place in the pecking order. At this time we do not fully understand the implications for machine intelligence, but it is clear that it is important, and we are beyond the ‘genesis point’ with machines designing (in part and in full) other machines. In the next phase they will also be interacting with their biological counterparts and learning from them.So far professionals have argued about what is and is not intelligent, and the analysis presented goes some way to provide a reasonably quantified judgement. Leaving aside all other issues and arguments it would appear that the arrival of a more general purpose intelligence is only a matter of when, and not what if. And there is only one questions left to ask; will we be smart enough to recognise a new intelligence when it spontaneously erupts on the internet or within some complex system? Next Event the future of the Singularity Thursday, May 19 , 2011Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Location: HTIB, 1e Weteringplantsoen 2c, 1017 SJ Amsterdam The speakers and topics are Frank Theys, philosopher, filmmaker and visual artistChanged attitudes on ‘human enhancement’ since the turn of the millennium. Yuri van Geest, Head of Emerging Technologies, THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership.Singularity – The Biggest Tech Wave is Here Arjen Kamphuis, Co-founder, CTO, GendoThe Singularity – Fantasy, threat or opportunity? Moderated by Peter van Gorsel, Educational Business Developer, University of Amsterdam / UvA/HvA Aquarius – undersea research laboratory (Credit: NOAA) Aquarius is an underwater ocean laboratory located in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. The laboratory is deployed three and half miles offshore, at a depth of 60 feet, next to spectacular coral reefs. Scientists live in Aquarius during ten–day missions using saturation diving to study and explore our coastal ocean. Aquarius is the world’s only operating undersea research laboratory. Aquarius is owned by NOAA and is operated by the University of North Carolina Wilmington. Since 1993, the Aquarius undersea lab has supported over 90 missions, producing some 300 peer-reviewed scientific publications along with numerous popular science articles, educational programs, and television spots. The Aquarius Reef Base is also supporting one of the longest running and detailed coral reef monitoring programs in the world, an ocean observing platform, and surface-based research in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. In Science Started in 1994, scientists have established a coral reef and fish monitoring and assessment program to investigate change in the Florida Keys Marine Sanctuary and better understand the impacts of climate change, human influences, natural variability, and the effectiveness of marine reserves. Early results show the better condition of deep reefs as compared to those in shallow water. Continued studies will provide managers vital information in their efforts to protect Florida’s valuable reefs through ecosystem-based management and restoration strategies. Discovery of internal waves regularly impinging on reefs, bringing a 10 to 40-fold increase in natural nutrients, which is much greater than previously published estimates from nearshore pollution sources. The first descriptions and identification of a disease pathogen that devastated large hard corals in the Florida Keys, including important information about the distribution, abundance and potential causes of black-band disease. In another study a conclusive link to terrestrial runoff was discovered in a disease that killed large numbers of an ecologically important coral species throughout the Keys and Caribbean. New understanding of the magnitude and importance of sponge filtering on a coral reef; findings show it to be 10 times greater than measured in a laboratory setting and having an important influence on water quality. Used undersea drilling techniques to improve our understanding of the history of reef growth in Florida. Discovered the importance of water flow in coral feeding and have provided surface support for long-term coral spawning studies. Improved our understanding of herbivore interaction and influence on the coral reef ecosystem, this is important as fish and algae populations change on reefs worldwide. Testing of a new underwater spectrophotometer and some of the first underwater measurements made of UV light. Creation of a linked ocean observing system consisting of buoy, seafloor, and water column sensors providing real-time data (temperature, salinity, waves, currents, fluorescence and more) to scientists and the public via the Internet. In Safety and Technology Excellent safety record; regarded as a model for standards and training by Navy saturation diving program. Since Aquarius operations began in Florida in 1993, technology has continually been upgraded and remains state-of-the art in saturation diving for ocean science. Barge tending the habitat was replaced with high-tech Life Support Buoy (LSB) and mission control relocated to shore base. Communications system upgraded to allow broadcast quality video and audio feed from Aquarius and nearby work sites to shore, winning a national business award. Internet access and video conferencing made available to Aquarius. Addition of umbilical diving capabilities with communications and helmet cameras. Robotic undersea vehicle piloting capabilities from inside the habitat. Upgraded to diver-controlled tank fills at waystations positioned up to 1000 feet away from Aquarius. Ocean observing platform established with connection to shore and Internet, sensors powered by wind generator and solar panels; only ocean observing site with adjacent seafloor lab and in situ service for over 280 days per year. Partnership with NASA to train astronauts and develop technology for lunar exploration, communications, and base construction. Partnership with Navy to train divers and develop technology for future saturation systems. In Education and Outreach Hundreds of graduate and undergraduate students have assisted in research during Aquarius Reef Base missions and surface diving operations. Web site established and upgraded, including live web cams, new design underway, receives about 50,000 visits per mission. Two Jason Project missions, reaching over 1,000,000 students in the U.S. and across the world with live broadcasts, specially designed curriculum, and enabling student aquanauts to visit the undersea lab. Television programming on National Geographic, Discovery, ABC News 20/20, NBC Today Show, CNN, Learning Channel. Public-oriented articles in Scientific American, Weekly Reader, National Geographic, Smithsonian, Geotimes and more. Numerous presentations done at national events, aquariums, schools, science centers and museums; some with live links to aquanauts living underwater. Student writing contest, scouting programs, summer internships In Partnerships100s of partnering institutions since 1993 including: NOAA: Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, National Marine Sanctuary Program, and NOAA Southeast Fisheries Other federal programs: NASA, Navy, USGS Academic institutions: In Florida (UM Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, NOVA Southeast U., FAU FSU, FIO, FIT, HBOI, University of Tampa, USF), North Carolina (UNC Chapel Hill), and nationally (Virginia Institute of Marine Science, Stanford University,, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Georgia Institute of Technology, SUNY-Buffalo, CSU, University of South Carolina, WHOI, UC – Berkley) Private foundations – Living Oceans Foundation, Emerson Foundation, National Marine Sanctuary Foundation, The Nature Conservancy Industry – Harris Corporation, Motorola, United Space Alliance Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Projekt Zukunft (Project Future) — a Berlin Senate Initiative Projekt Zukunft is an initiative for structural change in Berlin as an information and knowledge society. The goal is to develop the city into an internationally recognized, competitve and attractive location. Projekt Zukunft supports the up-and-coming branches of the media, IT and creative industries, interlinking them with scientific, political and management structures. Through strategies, initiatives and projects, public-private-partnerships, events, information campaigns and publications, Projekt Zukunft supports technological, economic and societal innovations, and enhances the general conditions of the city’s growth areas. Projekt Zukunft’s broad service portfolio makes it the city’s largest communications and support network.The initiative is financed through funding from the state of Berlin and the EC (European Regional Development Fund) as well as from contributions from the network partners, such as other administrative departments, institutions and enterprises. Earth Plastic Earth Plastic is a breakthrough material that is biodegradable, recyclable and made from 100% post-consumer recycled plastic. Unlike traditional plastics which never biodegrade, Earth Plastic contains a proprietary blend of additives that enables microorganisms to break down the molecular structure of the plastic into humus-like material that is not harmful to the environment. Products made with Earth Plastic material have the identical look, durability, shelf-life and function that you’d expect from a traditional plastic product, but are also earth-friendly since they are biodegradable and recyclable. EU Strategy for equality between women and men 2010-2015 The Strategy for equality between women and men (2010-2015) was adopted on 21 September 2010. Inequalities between women and men violate basic Human Rights. They also impose a heavy toll on the economy and represent an underutilisation of talent. Economic and business benefits can be gained from enhancing gender equality. The Strategy for the period 2010-2015 builds on the experience of the Roadmap for equality between women and men (2006-2010). It is a comprehensive framework committing the Commission to promote gender equality into all its policies. The strategy highlights the contribution of gender equality to economic growth and sustainable development, and support the implementation of the gender equality dimension in the Europe 2020 Strategy. The thematic priorities are based around the “Women’s Charter”: equal economic independence for women and men; equal pay for work of equal value; equality in decision-making; dignity, integrity and ending gender violence; promoting gender equality beyond the EU horizontal issues (gender roles, legislation and governance tools). It follows the dual approach of gender mainstreaming and specific measures. For each priority area, key actions and detailed proposals for change and progress are described in an annex to the communication. The new Strategy will aim at strengthening cooperation between the various actors and improving governance. It will lay the ground for future cooperation on gender equality with Member States, as well as with the European Parliament and other institutions and bodies, including the European Institute for Gender Equality. Eurobarometer survey: Gender equality in the EU in 2009 .A survey on perceptions and experiences of Europeans with regard to gender equality was conducted between September and October 2009. The results were published in March 2010. 62 % of the respondents believe that gender inequality is a widespread phenomenon. However, their perception of the extent of gender inequality increases with age: the young generation (15-24) tends to regard gender inequality as less widespread than the older age group (55+). Violence against women and the gender pay gap are considered as the two top priorities for action selected by Europeans from a list of options: 62 % for violence against women and 50 % for the gender pay gap, and a large majority of Europeans think these issues should be addressed urgently (92 % for violence against women and 82 % for the gender pay gap). Most of the respondents think that decisions about gender equality should be made jointly within the European Union, 64 % believe there has been progress in the past decade and over half are aware of the EU’s activities to combat gender inequalities. Recommended Book Human Enhancement By Julian Savulescu, Nick Bostrom To what extent should we use technology to try to make better human beings? Because of the remarkable advances in biomedical science, we must now find an answer to this question.Human enhancement aims to increase human capacities above normal levels. Many forms of human enhancement are already in use. Many students and academics take cognition enhancing drugs to get a competitive edge. Some top athletes boost their performance with legal and illegal substances. Many an office worker begins each day with a dose of caffeine. This is only the beginning. As science and technology advance further, it will become increasingly possible to enhance basic human capacities to increase or modulate cognition, mood, personality, and physical performance, and to control the biological processes underlying normal aging. Some have suggested that such advances would take us beyond the bounds of human nature.These trends, and these dramatic prospects, raise profound ethical questions. They have generated intense public debate and have become a central topic of discussion within practical ethics. Should we side with bioconservatives, and forgo the use of any biomedical interventions aimed at enhancing human capacities? Should we side with transhumanists and embrace the new opportunities? Or should we perhaps plot some middle course?Human Enhancement presents the latest moves in this crucial debate: original contributions from many of the world’s leading ethicists and moral thinkers, representing a wide range of perspectives, advocates and sceptics, enthusiasts and moderates. These are the arguments that will determine how humanity develops in the near future. Creative Company Conference A chance to show how much you really like the future Creative Company Conference near Amsterdam invites you to spend a day surrounded by leading US, European, and Dutch creatives. We really mean ‘surrounded’: On our CCC Experience Floor top speakers will give workshops, trainings and meet you and your business challenges in person. Highlights include Silicon Valley expert and best-selling author Sara Lacy (Tech Crunch), Stanford University, Beijing Design, Van den Ende & Deitmers Venture Capital, Local Intelligence Berlin and Lost Boys. What’s your name? Add it to CCC 2011! Futurist Portrait: Michael Anissimov “Hello and welcome. I’m Michael Anissimov, a science/technology writer and consultant living in San Francisco. I have a deep interest in the future of science and technology, and see technology as creating as the board on which social and political games are played. There are two particular technologies which will have a radical destabilizing effect on the globe once they pass certain progress thresholds – molecular nanotechnology (MNT) and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). These technologies are likely to be deployed sometime between 2020 and 2040, and if we don’t handle them with the utmost caution, they could cause disaster. Accordingly, much of the material you will find on this site is devoted to presenting evidence in favor of this view, and encouraging the reader to get involved in the ongoing ethics dialogue or even active support of research. I’m interested in many other topics, like arms control and foreign policy, but my focus on MNT and AGI is what distinguishes me from most people you’ll run across. Like so many other techie hipsters nowadays, my personal philosophy is transhumanist. My background: in 2002, when I was a senior in High School, I co-founded the Immortality Institute, a life extension organization that today includes hundreds of paying members and an active online community. In 2006 I founded the Accelerating Future blog, which gets over 70,000 unique visitors per month and has been featured on G4TV, SciFi.com, and the front page of Digg and Reddit. I’m currently Media Director for the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, Fundraising Director, North America for the Lifeboat Foundation, and am involved in the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology. I’ve given talks on futurist issues at seminars and conferences in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Palo Alto, and at Yale University.” Technological Singularity The Singularity and its Importance Agenda Our Season Program 2010/2011 May 19, 201118:30 – 21:15 June 23, 201118:30 – 21:15   the future of SingularityLocation: HTIB, 1e Weteringplantsoen 2c, 1017 SJ Amsterdam the future of European DemocracyLocation: Nautiek.com, Veemkade 267, 1019 CZ Amsterdam (Ship SALVE)Past Season Events 2010/2011     Oct 14, 2010:the future of HackingNov 25, 2010:the future of HappinessJan 20, 2011: the future of Financial InfrastructureFeb 17, 2011: the future of ServicesMarch 17, 2011: the future of ShellApril 14, 2011: the future of the Human Mind

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, June 2011, Issue 139

Content DemocracyNext EventAbout Wilderness: The Idea and the SpaceClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureWorld Ocean Review Recommended BookOrganic architectureFuturist Portrait: Prabhu GuptaraAgenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. As the beauty is in the eye of the beholder democracy has many possible definitions. One may say it was a result of a process of reconciliation between the aristocratic ruling class and its subjects from the beginning of the industrial revolution. Clearly, recognizing the rights of people’s decision making instead of oppressing them proved to be a more efficient tool of governance. To keep the safety of the mass production at the industries’ factories and the necessity of a consistent environment for “the free flow of goods”, monetary stability and exchange ability became more important than imposing the direct power of the ruling class. However, democracy has not only failed to prevent big wars and general justice it has become insufficient as a rule of principle at the age of information as systems became rather complicated for having a deep knowledge in many different fields. The vote for the late 300 page EU constitution draft was too much a demanding task to go through, let alone studying and understanding the details of the text. The same applies to numerous other issues awaiting ruling from our democracies. The technical difficulty of getting people’s attention and asking them to focus on many issues than one can handle at a life time while the world is already an increasingly challenging place for earning one’s living and even survival, is it reasonable to expect a fair judgement from the majority to make the best decisions for the future? Are European Democracies fit for dealing with the challenges ahead? Do we need new tools? New decision making processes? Or do we need to radically renew our approach? …. interested in knowing more and sharing thoughts and ideas …. join us at the event about the future of European Democracy – Thursday, 23 June! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Democracy Social networks impact on democracy, dictatorships and freedom of informationBy Patrick Dixon, Chairman of Global Change Ltd. DemocracyBy Jacque Fresco, The Venus Project Democracy as a Condition for Philosophy. 2006By Alain Badiou, French Philosopher Democracy: Rhetoric and RealityBy Noam Chomsky, American Philosopher Participatory Democracy: What prospects in Europe? Next Event the future of European Democracy Thursday, June 23, 2011Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Location: Nautiek.com, Veemkade 267, 1019 CZ Amsterdam (Ship SALVE)The conference language is English. The speakers and topics are Ben Crum, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science. Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, The essence of democracy and the challenge of internationalizationMaurice de Hond, Dutch pollster and entrepreneur Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group, Democracy is dead, as we know it! Moderated by Kwela Sabine Hermanns About Wilderness: The Idea and the Space By Arnab B. Chowdhury, Prarthana Kalaskar, Rémi Boutinet Arnab is founder of Ninād – an Integrality-centered network that ideates Knowledge Management strategies to help entrepreneurs and organisations to become nimble and dynamic. Prarthana and Rémi are core members of IndiaThinks – Ninad’s research arm, which focuses on strategies that unite Knowledge-Business-Consciousness in harmony. Historically, the word Wilderness has derived from the notion of wildness or that which is not controlled by humans. The word’s etymology is from the Old English wildeornes, which derives from wildeor or wild beast (from wild + deor beast, DEER). In European culture, the word first appears in medieval Bibles, in reference to arid, uninhabited lands that were often a sign of God’s displeasure. The traditional Judaeo-Christian view has been that it is right and proper, in the eyes of God, to transform the wilderness and make it bloom. At the same time, wilderness was seen as a place to cleanse the soul. Hermits retired to the wilderness to become closer to God. Eastern cultures had an even stronger tradition of contemplation and meditation in natural places.1 In America, wilderness areas are defined as a place “where man himself is a visitor who does not remain”. 2 Wilderness is also considered to be a human construct. It is a recovery of a memory of spaces in nature before humans changed it to suit their needs; a pristine, sacred nature, undisturbed by any human activity. Late 20th century saw changes in this vision of Wilderness and humans seemed to have found their place in nature in a peaceful co-existence. The World Wilderness Congress is the longest-running and one of the most prestigious international environmental forums in the world. The World Wilderness Congress of 1998 held in Bangalore, India, introduced the concept of wilderness areas in Asia, where before no such wilderness protected areas existed. Reintroduction of the Cheetah in India and a discussion of marine wilderness protected areas was a result of this meeting that had 700 delegates from 30 nations voicing their concerns.3 Wilderness then is an idea, a feeling experienced by humans as being with nature and not disturbing it; and geographical spaces that are specially set aside for nature and which humans merely visit but neither occupy or use for personal benefit. Locating Wetlands in Laws and PoliciesIndia’s National Environment Policy (2006) states that apart from forests, India’s freshwater resources comprise the single most important class of natural endowments enabling its economy and its human settlement patterns. The fresh water resources comprise the river systems, groundwater and wetlands. Each of these has a unique role, and characteristic linkages to other environmental entities —- Wetlands, natural and manmade, freshwater or brackish, provide numerous ecological services. They provide habitat to aquatic flora and fauna, as well as numerous species of birds, including migratory species’ —- A holistic view of Wetlands is necessary which looks at each identified Wetlands in terms of its causal linkages with other natural entities, human needs, and its own attributes. The Report of the National Forest Commission (2006) recommends that a National Wetland Conservation Act should be framed with the following: Inclusion of all types of wetlands (freshwater, coastal, marshes, swamps, mangroves, waterlogged areas) in the land use classification in the country should be done.A National Wetland Biodiversity Register should be started.An inventory of ‘user groups’ also should be prepared while collecting information for the biodiversity register. It should also list out the priorities of the communities on particular wetland resources.To establish a National Wetland Inventory and Monitoring Programme and a National Wetland Information System and therefore, to develop a sustained and serious programme for monitoring wetlands.The economic evaluation of wetlands must be computed and it must be integrated with National Resource Accounting.Wetland productivity studies on a long-term basis by identified organizations from different parts of the country need to be undertaken.This would bring out indisputable data on wetland productivity, which is many times more than that of other ecosystems. Moreover, it would be an excellent tool to check the wetland ecosystem health.At the policy level in India there is the Wild Life Protection Act 1972, Forest Conservation Act 1980 and National Forest Policy of 1988 and a host of rules formulated under these acts are implemented by the Forest Department. The states in India have their own State Forest Policies. There is an independent Ministry of Environment and Forests with its minister holding a cabinet rank at the Union Government level. The call is now for a Wetland Conservation Act from lawyers, environmentalists, activists, Green organisations and people dependent on wetlands Conservation of water bodies. The scheme on conservation and management of wetlands was initiated in 1987 India is also a signatory to the Ramsar Convention. The ‘Convention on Wetlands’, signed in Ramsar, Iran, in 1971, is an intergovernmental treaty which provides the framework for national action and international cooperation for the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources. There are presently 158 Contracting Parties to the Convention, with 1758 wetland sites, totaling 161 million hectares, designated for inclusion in the Ramsar List of Wetlands of International Importance. Ramsar Convention is the only global environment treaty dealing with a particular ecosystem. The Ramsar Convention on Wetlands was developed as a means to call international attention to the rate at which wetland habitats were disappearing, in part due to a lack of understanding of their important functions, values, goods and services. Governments that join the Convention are expressing their willingness to make a commitment to helping to reverse that history of wetland loss and degradation. Ground Reality — The case of recreating wilderness in an urban wetland So many laws, rules, recommendations and for all these years … what is the ground reality? “I have worked like there is no tomorrow!” says Mr. Joss Brooks the chief “knowledge architect” of the Tholkappia wetlands, in the south Indian city of Chennai. These wetlands were recovered from the filth laden dumping grounds of what was once the Adyar River that flowed across Chennai and emptied into the Bay of Bengal. A serene 58 acres of land now present an occasion to recover a not-so-distant memory of a forest along the banks of the river. For this project, Joss is a government contractor, but sees himself ‘a gardener from in the international township of Auroville’, who created in 1973 the Pitchandikulam Forest a bio-resource centre in the bioregion of Auroville. The beauty of the Tholkappiar Eco Park project has been a revelation to one and all: as one retraces the steps taken to address causes one ends up finding more inclusive and holistic solutions. At a cost of 22 million USD, the government of Tamil Nadu has committed to work backwards and clean the entire Adyar River, about 358 acres of area, which means resolving a lot of issues of all those who in one way or another use the river for domestic or commercial purposes. In Joss’s own words, “This goes to show that if there is a political will and community support and good budgetary provisions, it is possible; it is not easy but it is possible and that is a good sign. The word ‘Innovation’ interests all and a change of mindset, to understand that things can be done and therefore be done, is new level of being on a collective level”. According to India’s National Forest Policy (1988), all urban areas should have 33% of their land under forest cover by 2012. The best efforts of the forest department notwithstanding, Chennai the capital of Tamil Nadu, south India, remains the least green metro in the country, with a green cover extending to just 9.5% of its geographical area in the city limits. In this backdrop the creation of the Tholkappiar Eco Park has a special significance, it is already fulfilling the role of an urban forest area in not just providing a beautiful aerial view of the city but by playing a key role in maintaining the environmental balance and supplying good quality oxygen to a polluted city. Human trails are light footprints by students who come to study nature or simply “be” in nature. The Department of Environment (Tamil Nadu) holds interactive training programme for school students. Joss’s involvement in this project began in 2004 as the founder of Pitchandikulam Forest — a Conservation site within the Auroville International Township. Auroville was invited to come to the middle of Chennai to help restore the estuary, starting with the Adyar Creek (Adyar Poonga). Joss grew up in the Australian state of Tasmania, a place full of wild natural beauty and wide open empty spaces. After living in Europe and Africa he came to Auroville in 1970 to participate in the early pioneering work of the newborn community. In 1973 he established the community of Pitchandikulam dedicated to restoring the eroded 60 acres of Auroville Green Belt land to its former green cover. Now it is a vibrant forest with more than 600 species of plants, many with medicinal value. In 1993, associating with the Foundation for Revitalization of Local Health Traditions (FRLHT) he developed the medicinal plant conservation Park at Pitchandikulam. In 2002, the Nadukuppam Environment Education Center was founded in a village 30 km north of Auroville in order to spread the restoration ecology message into the Auroville bioregion. In 2004, Pitchandikulam Forest Consultants was created to implement restoration work in other areas of Tamil Nadu including the city of Chennai. The actual work on the Adyar Creek began in 2008 and Joss brought with him his rich experience of “recreating” natural ecosystems, and an aspiration for deep harmony between man and nature. Wilderness and Sacredness – Nature in the City Joss has revived the cultural sanctity of Nature with modern, rigorous scientific studies and innovative practices through all his initiatives at Auroville and it is this experience that he brought with him as he set to restore the wetlands in the urban area of Chennai. For Joss, the transition between Auroville to Adyar Poonga is like integrating the rural into the urban and it is here that his uniqueness is best expressed. Revival of Sacred Groves: Stretches or fragments of forests protected by the local or the visiting community with reverence and respect which is traditionally accorded to the Divine. One of the most important functions of the sacred groves was that it was a repository for various medicinal plants. The groves supplied humans with replenishable resources like fruits, honey and dry fallen wood. The groves also had natural ponds and streams, and when embanked met the water needs of the communities in the neighbourhood. Contemporary sacred groves serve as biodiversity hotspots, often house plants and animals that have become extinct in neighboring areas. They can help with genetic diversity and ensure flourishing of such species. Sacred groves in urban areas act as “lungs” of the city. Wilderness is about letting Nature heal herself. Scientific study and field experiments in regeneration of indigenous plant species native to a particular geography: Pitchandikulam is a peaceful sanctuary of a self-generating forest where over 800 species of plants can be found in the sanctuary forest, grasslands and ethno medicinal gardens. With 60 other in situ and ex situ conservation areas, Pitchandikulam Forest is part of the Medicinal Plant Conservation Network. This network implements detailed programs of botanical and social documentation as well as conservation and planting initiatives. There is a stress on reviving traditional health systems. Pitchandikulam Forest planted more than a 100 thousand native species of plants and trees in the Adyar Poonga. Thanks to a bountiful monsoon, the Poonga resembled a wild scrub forest in less than two years. Creating a Knowledge base that includes the local community, its belief systems and practices, and village elders as an important resource of information, insight and wisdom and disseminating this knowledge. Since the tsunami, Auroville has been monitoring the survival of some of its coastal plantations where many Tropical Dry Evergreen Forest (TDEF) species have been tried. It has been observed five months after the wave that some 90%, 120 species, have survived. This information is invaluable in the planning process for future plantations. The Tholkappiar Eco Park has several elements to sensitize visitors to the environment. It has four primary zones. The first is the Arrival and Orientation Zone, which will provide safe arrival areas for visitors and at the same time ensure minimal disturbance to the rest of the park. The second is the Interactive Learning Zone with interpretive education gardens, learning areas and an Environmental Education Centre. The third zone is the Nature Interpretation Zone, which has a natural trail with occasional viewing points for people to experience the various ecosystems of the Coromandel Coast. The largest zone is the Silent Zone, which is not accessible to the public. Sustainable technologies: Where possible, the use of sustainable technology is embedded in all activities. Examples of such technology can be found at Nadukuppam Environment Education Centre where an integrated water sanitation system has been developed, solar technology and organic agricultural activities are demonstrated. By providing working examples of sustainable technologies the task of encouraging communities to implement them becomes a lot easier. The Tholkappiar Eco Park is a green and plastic free zone where solar panels light up the street lights. The small canteen at the entrance serves organic food. An important aspect of conservation is the water management plan — Water from collection tanks spread out in the park will be pumped using solar pumps. The park will generate its own water from storm water collection and treatment of sewage and grey water from surrounding urban areas using innovative engineering technology, effective micro organisms and special fountains that aerate and energize tired and polluted water. The purification and reactivating of this essential element of life will be a key principle of the park. Nature will be allowed to work herself out in decontaminating ground water and soil. With vigorously growing health plants, the air has been rid of foul smells that existed earlier. Training the young generation of students and volunteers: The vision is to set up an environmental education centre with the aim of restoring biodiversity in the Poonga through student and community participation. The Environmental Education Centre then becomes a point for community involvement in integrated training. Teaching the necessary skills to bring biodiversity back to the land are researched and taught involving the community, particularly school children. The aim is to show visitors the wonder and importance of ecological diversity; communicate scientific studies and research into indigenous fauna and flora; raise awareness of local environment issues; and inspire people to engage in the process of restoration and preservation of the environment. It will introduce visitors to the basic principles of ecology with an emphasis on coastal ecology and watershed rehabilitation. These programmes will help to nurture a deeper appreciation and reverence for living things and natural systems. Visitors will become familiar with plants and animals native to Chennai and learn about their interrelationships and how human activities affect them. A profound level of Collaboration from the polity, economy and society: In case of Auroville, collective responsibility and community living are at its foundations. Adyar Poonga Ecological Restoration Project, Chennai – Part 1 & 2 With the granting of a two-year maintenance contract Pitchandikulam Forest Consultants is looking forward to a similar model and spirit of governance to take shape for the Tholkappiar Eco Park. Urban forests and wetlands can become an ‘essential infrastructure’ in city planning and budgetary allocations. The notion of urban forests is not new in India nor is the idea of Wilderness; India has had its ‘Aranyas’ (forests and wilderness where man could contemplate on his essence and of that of the universe). Transcending piecemeal environmental remedial measures as well as deep ecology, “if this project works then it is a reminder that wilderness can be … even inside the city; it brings back a memory, a collective memory and a conviction. It shows how urban wetland could be cleaned up. The park is not about entertainment or making a profit. It is about pulling out something different, about making a big shift and a place to dream, to imagine. People have forgotten to imagine … to imagine … so important to imagine, not to be scared of imagining”. As we celebrate the World Environment Day on 5th June, the news that Bolivia has enshrined natural world’s rights with equal status for Mother Earth has clearly turned the spotlight again4 on “Wilderness” as a global issue that needs to be addressed sensitively and urgently; followed by Ecuador, which changed its constitution to give nature “the right to exist, persist, maintain and regenerate its vital cycles, structure, functions and its processes in evolution”. 5 “Ley de Derechos de La Madre Tierra” in Spanish (Law of Mother Earth)The legislation in Bolivia creates 11 distinguished rights for the environment:They include: the right to life and to exist; the right to continue vital cycles and processes free from human alteration; the right to pure water and clean air; the right to balance; the right not to be polluted; and the right to not have cellular structure modified or genetically altered. Equador:“It establishes a new relationship between man and nature, the harmony of which must be preserved as a guarantee of its regeneration.” Still some way to transit from Human Rights to Rights of Nature and essentially to a harmony, goodwill and collaboration between all! 1 http://www.taiga.net/yourYukon/col077.html2 http://www.wilderness.net/NWPS/documents//publiclaws/PDF/16_USC_1131-1136.pdf3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Wilderness_Congress4 http://therightsofnature.org/trees-could-sue/5 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/apr/10/bolivia-enshrines-natural-worlds-rights and http://www.rightsofmotherearth.com/rights-nature/ecuador-rights/ and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/13/bolivias-law-of-mother-earth_n_848966.html Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com March 23: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Toyota FriendToyota Friend is a private social network for Toyota customers and their cars. Toyota Friend will be powered by Salesforce Chatter, a private social network used by businesses, and will be offered, first in Japan, initially with Toyota’s electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles due in 2012. Salesforce.com CEO Marc Benioff said: “Toyota and salesforce.com share a vision to take the auto industry into the future. Social and mobile technologies will transform the car ownership experience, and we are excited to be Toyota’s partner in this transformation.” NeuroheadsetBased on the latest developments in neuro-technology, Emotiv has developed a revolutionary new personal interface for human computer interaction. The Emotiv EPOC is a high resolution, neuro-signal acquisition and processing wireless neuroheadset. It uses a set of sensors to tune into electric signals produced by the brain to detect player thoughts, feelings and expressions and connects wirelessly to most PCs. World Ocean Review In this first “World Ocean Review”, we present a report on the state of the oceans which will be followed by periodic updates in the future. Our aim is to reveal the consequences of intense human intervention for the ocean realm, including the impacts of climate change. We already understand some of the effects, but many unanswered questions remain. What is certain, however, is that human society must change its behaviour with the goal of achieving sustainable interaction with the environment and the oceans in particular. The ChaptersThe world oceans, global climate driversThe oceans cover around 70 per cent of the Earth’s surface. They thus play an important role in the Earth’s climate and in global warming. One important function of the oceans is to transport heat from the tropics to higher latitudes. They respond very slowly to changes in the atmosphere. Beside heat, they take up large amounts of the carbon dioxide emitted by humankind. How climate change alters ocean chemistryMassive emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere have an impact on the chemical and biological processes in the ocean. The warming of ocean water could lead to a destabilization of solid methane deposits on the sea floor. Because of the excess CO2, the oceans are becoming more acidic. Scientists are making extensive measurements to determine how much of the humanmade CO2 is being absorbed by the oceans. Important clues are provided by looking at oxygen. The uncertain future of the coastsIt is now accepted that global warming will result in a significant sea-level rise in future, with many low-lying coastal areas around the world being lost to the sea over the coming centuries. The wealthy industrialized countries will be able to defend themselves from the encroaching waters for a time, albeit with massive technological effort. In the long term, however, they too will have to withdraw back from the areas under threat or, alternatively, adapt to rising water levels. Last stop: The ocean – polluting the seasHuman society inevitably generates immense amounts of waste arising from the production and utilization of food as well as industrial and consumer goods. A considerable amount of this waste eventually ends up in the oceans. Fortunately, the pollution from oil has been decreasing in recent years. But the increasing load of nutrients and pollutants and general littering of the oceans are a growing cause for concern. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystemsThere can be no doubt that climate change will alter marine life. Changes in ecosystems usually have multiple natural causes, but increasing carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere and global warming are now playing a critical role. The extent of the coming disruption to biotic communities is unknown. Exploiting a living resource: FisheriesFor decades, the catch from the world’s fisheries steadily increased – with the result that many fish stocks are now classified as overexploited or depleted. Failed fisheries policies and poor fisheries management are to blame for this situation. Short-term profits appear to take priority over the development of a low-impact, sustainable fisheries sector that will remain economically viable in the long term. Marine minerals and energyOur appetite for energy and mineral resources seems insatiable. As landbased resources become increasingly scarce, those in the oceans are attracting greater interest. The fuels and ores in the deep sea are particularly tempting. But wind and wave power could also meet a proportion of our energy needs. Maritime highways of global tradeThe volume of maritime traffic increased significantly over recent decades, but the global economic crisis brought the industry to its knees. Now there are promising signals for a recovery, however, nobody knows what the future holds for the process of globalization, the global imbalances still linger on and the world of finance continues to be in a fragile state. The growing threats of piracy and terrorism could also compromise shipping. Medical knowledge from the seaMarine organisms such as bacteria, corals and sea sponges contain thousands of interesting substances that could provide us with the medications of the future. Some of these agents have already been approved as drugs. Research on primordial organisms can reveal both how diseases occur and how they can be treated. Before the treasure trove beneath the sea can be claimed, however, some legal issues must be resolved.The law of the sea: A powerful instrumentToday, a raft of international treaties determines which state has jurisdiction over coastal waters and the seabed and where a country’s fishing fleet may legally operate. However, the extraction of mineral resources from the ocean floor and climate change are confronting the international law of the sea with new challenges. Balancing the protection of the marine environment with intensive use of the oceans is also a difficult task. Recommended Book Democracy: Crisis and Renewal (Big Ideas) By Paul Ginsborg Despite the global expansion of democracy, a looming threat has appeared in the countries that claim to love it most: declining electoral turnout, diminishing faith in political institutions and the growing gap between the political class and those who elect them? Historian and commentator Paul Ginsborg goes back to first principles and examines anew a concept that we once fought for in this brilliant and bold new diagnosis of our political system. Political parties have lost swathes of members and effective power is ever more concentrated in the hands of their leaders. Behind these trends lie changing relationships between economics, the media and politics. Electoral spending has spiralled out of all control, with powerful economic interests exercising undue influence. The ‘level playing field’, on which democracy’s contests have supposedly been fought, has become ever more sloping and uneven. In many democratic”countries media coverage, especially that of television, is heavily biased. Electors become viewers and active participation gives way to mass passivity. Can things change? By going back to the roots of democracy and examining the relationship between representative and participatory democracy, political historian Paul Ginsborg shows that they can and must. Organic architecture Organic architecture is a philosophy of architecture which promotes harmony between human habitation and the natural world through design approaches so sympathetic and well integrated with its site that buildings, furnishings, and surroundings become part of a unified, interrelated composition. The term organic architecture was coined by Frank Lloyd Wright (1867–1959). Falling water by Frank Lloyd Wright History Project Organic Architecture S3238821 Futurist Portrait: Prabhu Guptara Professor Prabhu Guptara (born 1949 in Delhi, India) is an authority on the impact of technology on globalization, on strategy, on knowledge management, on corporate social responsibility, on comparative and cross-cultural ethics, and on management and leadership issues. Professor Prabhu Guptara is Executive Director, Organisational Development, Wolfsberg (a subsidiary of UBS – one of the largest banks in the world). He is also Freeman of the City of London and of the Worshipful Company of Information Technologists, and Chartered Fellow of the of the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development; he is also Fellow: of the Institute of Directors, of the Royal Commonwealth Society, and of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of the Arts Commerce and Manufactures; and has supervised PhD research at the University of Fribourg (Switzerland) as well as to be Visiting Professor at various Universities and Business Schools around the world. Earlier roles include: a Governor of the Polytechnic of Central London, Member of the Council of the British Institute of Management, of the International Federation of Training & Development Organisations (IFTDO), of the Association for Management Education and Development (UK), of the South East Regional Council of the Confederation of British Industry. Judge, 1988 National Training Awards, 1980 Commonwealth Poetry Prize, 1990 & 1991 Deo Gloria Prize for Fiction; Chair of the Panel of Judges, Deo Gloria Prize 1992 & 1993. Experience with an enormous range of organisations including: Akzo Nobel (Netherlands), the Associated Banks Institute (Germany), Barclays Bank (UK), British Petroleum (UK), the Council of Europe, Cultor (Finland), Deutsche Bank (Germany), Groupe Bull (France), Federation of Finnish Engineers (Finland), the International Management Association of Japan, Kemira (Finland), Kraft Jakob Suchard (Switzerland), Leadership Academy (Finland), Nokia Telecommunications (Finland), Novo Nordisk (Denmark), Sedgwick International Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers (UK), Singapore Institute of Management, Sonatrach (Algeria), Sun Alliance (UK), UNCTAD, Valeo (France), and so on. Why are loans bad for the poor? Agenda Our Season Program 2010/2011 June 23, 201118:30 – 21:15   the future of European DemocracyLocation: Nautiek.com, Veemkade 267, 1019 CZ Amsterdam (Ship SALVE) Past Season Events 2010/2011     Oct 14, 2010:the future of HackingNov 25, 2010:the future of HappinessJan 20, 2011: the future of Financial InfrastructureFeb 17, 2011: the future of ServicesMarch 17, 2011: the future of ShellApril 14, 2011: the future of the Human MindMay 19, 2011: the future of Singularity  

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Club of Amsterdam Journal, July 2011, Issue 140

Content The Indian Rupee-USD Exchange Rate – Will the Rupee Depreciate? New Video The Blue Brain Project Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Fast fashion meets luxury labels Recommended Book Zeitgeist: Moving Forward Futurist Portrait: Syd Mead Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.The Club of Amsterdam wishes you a great summer break!Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief The Indian Rupee – U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate. Will the Rupee depreciate? May 2011 – A White Paper by Evalueserve Special issue provided for the Club of Amsterdam. Authors: Ashutosh Gupta is the Vice President of Investment Research and Chief Transition Officer at Evalueserve. Surbhee Sirohi is a Manager in the Investment Research group at Evalueserve. Executive SummaryDuring the last decade, among major economies, India has achieved consistently impressive growth, second only to China. In the first half of fiscal 2010-11, the Indian economy grew at a healthy rate of 8.9%, and the majority of global growth going forward is expected to be driven by developing countries, specifically India and China. India is home to a vibrant services economy and a hotbed of outsourcing. Its economy has become increasingly interlinked with global markets as trade has flourished. The USD-INR exchange rate is an important indicator of investor sentiment and can significantly impact not only the fortunes of individual firms and sectors but also the government. While this exchange rate has been very stable overall for the last five years (44.86 on April 24th, 2006 and 44.34 on April 15th, 2011), there have been periods of significant volatility. For example, USD-INR moved from 40 to 51.50 from March 2008 to March 2009. During the past 12 months, it has traded in a relatively narrow range, between 47.33 and 43.99. We believe there is a significant downside risk to USD-INR exchange rate and this paper will explore some of the risk factors behind this: Inflation is at an all-time high; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 10.88% in 2009 and by 13.19% in 2010. The monetary policy changes undertaken by the government to control inflation have been ineffective. We believe this is because inflation is being driven primarily by structural supply side challenges such as lack of agricultural infrastructure, low crop yields, and the absence of organized retail. India is one of the fastest growing economies and is considered a favored destination for investment. Nevertheless, it witnessed a decline in Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in 2010, making it the only BRIC country where this happened. This is troubling as FDI is an important indicator of investors’ faith in a country’s long-term prospects. Foreign Institutional Investment (FII), which provides short-term portfolio investment money inflows, has been buoyant, but these funds are volatile by nature and are prone to “flight risk” at the first signs of trouble, something that happened during the financial crisis. Recent widespread corruption scandals have reinforced the negative perception of governance deficit in India and raised doubts about the availability of a level playing field for businesses. This, combined with regulatory and tax uncertainty, will deter many foreign investors. For example, several global firms who invested in India’s telecom sector have had to write off billions of dollars of their investments. Another major source of foreign currency inflows to India is remittances; India received USD 55 billion in remittances during 2010. This money limits the country’s current account deficit. The Middle East accounts for a major share of this inflow and the current turmoil in the region may negatively influence it as Indians abroad leave the region due to security concerns. Remittances from countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, where the strife has not spread, could also experience a decline as unemployment in these nation rises. The government finances are in a bad shape and the combined central and state government deficit has stubbornly stayed around 10% of GDP. Experts believe that oil prices will remain high in the near future. This is a major concern for India as it imports about 70% of its oil and efforts to increase the production capacity of petroleum and natural gas domestically have not been very successful. India’s current deficit is about 3%, the level it reached during the crisis of the 1990s. A current account deficit is not bad by itself for a growing economy if it helps build important long-term productive assets. However, in India’s case it is due to insufficient savings, especially by the government. This does not bode well for the economy. Moreover, given India’s rising import bill and threat to remittances, the deficit will remain high in the near future, creating pressure on the Indian Rupee. The United States (US) economy seems to be on the path to recovery. It is very likely that the improving US economy will draw more funds at the expense of emerging countries. This can already be seen in the FDI inflows, which increased by 43% in 2010. [ … ]ConclusionAfter studying the various demand and supply factors, we have arrived at three likely scenarios: First Scenario – Rupee DepreciationThis scenario is likely to occur if oil prices continue to rise or if FII money “exits” because of a crisis of confidence. Based on past evidence, even a relatively orderly outflow of USD 15 billion of FII money over a year could result in the INR depreciating by 22-30%. This would imply an exchange rate in the range of INR 55-60 to USD 1. It could get even worse if the flight of capital were to take place over a shorter period, which would cause massive concern among businesses and the government, since it would imply a higher cost of petrol, diesel, and petroleum products in India, leading to even higher food prices and Consumer Price Index. The current account deficit would balloon and the rising inflation could create a vicious cycle. Second Scenario – Rupee AppreciationThis scenario is likely to occur if the FII money continues to flow in and FDI levels improve. The stock markets will climb and there will be a rise in demand for INR. An appreciating Rupee will make imports cheaper and lead to better managed deficits and inflation. It must be pointed out that Rupee appreciation would erode India’s cost advantage in the export sector and negatively affect the booming ITES sector as well as the textile sector and this in turn would invite government intervention. This is what happened just before the onset of the 2008 financial crisis when the USD-INR touched 39 and the Indian government repeatedly intervened in the currency markets to halt the appreciation of the Rupee. Third Scenario – Status QuoThis is the most benign scenario. The exchange rate continues to move in its current range and appreciates over the long term as the economy continues to develop and India strengthens its position in the global markets. The government’s efforts to improve agricultural infrastructure bear fruit in the longer term and inflation declines. The rate fluctuations do not cause any major disruption in the trade environment. According to our analysis, during the next two years the probability of the first scenario (depreciation of Indian Rupee by 20%) is the highest (about 50%) while the other two scenarios have an equal probability of approximately 25% each. In other words, there will be pressure on the Rupee unless steps are taken to fix structural issues described in this article. The Indian government and RBI are well aware of this risk and are definitely hoping for the third scenario, in which India essentially grows its way out of trouble over a couple of decades and where they only have to intervene occasionally to smoothen out excess volatility. As Subir Gokarn, a deputy governor of RBI recently said, “Intervention is not costless, it simply transfers the cost from one constituency of the economy to another.” You can download the White Paper click here About EvalueserveEvalueserve is a global specialist for knowledge processes with a global team of over 2,200 professionals. As a trusted partner, Evalueserve analyzes, improves and executes knowledge-intensive processes and leverages its proprietary technology to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. Evalueserve has dedicated on-site teams and scalable global knowledge centers in Chile, China, India and Romania, which provide multi-time zone and multi-lingual services. Evalueserve’s knowledge solutions include customized research and analytics services for leading-edge companies worldwide. By working with Evalueserve, clients benefit from higher productivity, improved quality, freed-up management time, better access to knowledge and information across all parts of the company, and adding new capabilities to their organization. New Video the future of European Democracy Thursday, June 23, 2011 Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting GroupDemocracy is dead, as we know it! The Blue Brain Project Reconstructing the brain piece by piece and building a virtual brain in a supercomputer — these are some of the goals of the Blue Brain Project. The virtual brain will be an exceptional tool giving neuroscientists a new understanding of the brain and a better understanding of neurological diseases. The Blue Brain project began in 2005 with an agreement between the EPFL and IBM, which supplied the BlueGene/L supercomputer acquired by EPFL to build the virtual brain. The computing power needed is considerable. Each simulated neuron requires the equivalent of a laptop computer. A model of the whole brain would have billions. Supercomputing technology is rapidly approaching a level where simulating the whole brain becomes a concrete possibility. As a first step, the project succeeded in simulating a rat cortical column. This neuronal network, the size of a pinhead, recurs repeatedly in the cortex. A rat’s brain has about 100,000 columns of in the order of 10,000 neurons each. In humans, the numbers are dizzying — a human cortex may have as many as two million columns, each having in the order of 100,000 neurons each. Blue Brain is a resounding success. In five years of work, Henry Markram’s team has perfected a facility that can create realistic models of one of the brain’s essential building blocks. This process is entirely data driven and essentially automatically executed on the supercomputer. Meanwhile the generated models show a behavior already observed in years of neuroscientific experiments. These models will be basic building blocks for larger scale models leading towards a complete virtual brain. [ … ] ModelingThe Builder ConceptAll mathematical models used in Blue Brain virtual experiments are created by a Builder.This isa software application that generates a computer model of a particular brain structure. Models are based on the experimental data collected and organized in the first two steps of the Blue Brain workflow and on the mathematical abstractions created in the third step. The Blue Brain modeling strategy requires the construction of models representing different levels of brain organization. Each of these models requires its own builder. Below we describe the goals, characteristics and status of individual builders. Cell BuilderThe purpose of the Cell Builder is to build models of individual nerve cells.The nerve cells of the mammalian brain display great diversity in their morphology and electrical behavior. Later in this report, we suggest that this diversity makes a crucial contribution to the robust principles governing the construction and dynamic behavior of neural circuits.The design of the Cell Builder is based on a strategy of incorporating the maximum possible number of biophysical constraints from experimental data and from the results of Predictive Reverse Engineering. The remaining parameters are optimized under these constraints. Microcircuit BuilderThe purpose of the Microcircuit Builder is to build models of neural microcircuits in any part of the brain.The integration and processing of information by the mammalian brain depends in an essential way on structured interconnectivity among nerve cells. At the microcircuit level, circuits appear to be determined primarily by the composition of a given area of the brain in terms of different types of cell, by the positions of these cells, and by their respective morphologies. The Microcircuit Builder uses this data to faithfully model neuronal microcircuitry. Mesocircuit BuilderThe purpose of the Mesocircuit Builder is to model mesoscale neural circuitry i.e. circuits spanning several neocortical columns, modules or microcircuits.Every region of the neocortex contains multiple replicas of neuromicrocircuits, which are basically similar but variable in their details, allowing diversification and specialization. These microcircuits are highly interconnected.The Mesocircuit Builder, currently in the exploration phase, will make it possible to build models of the connections among microcircuits. The planned models will include experimental data on projections formed by neurons within a brain area (e.g. S1 of the somatosensory cortex), models of mid-range fiber growth, models of the ways fibers penetrate a microcircuit, and the detection of touches between incoming fibers and the rest of the circuit. Experiment BuilderThe primary purpose of the Experiment Builder is to create explicit descriptions of experimental environments and protocols allowing their replication in silico.The Experiment Builder will include features sup¬porting the automated extraction of conditions and protocols from literature, the design of new protocols, and the use of these protocols in experiments based on Blue Brain models. In brief, the Experiment Builder will become a primary control interface for the Blue Brain Facility. What’s next?The ultimate goals of brain simulation are to answer age-old questions about how we think, remember, learn and feel, to discover new treatments for the scourge of brain disease and to build new computer technologies that exploit what we have learned about the brain. Blue Brain is a first step in this direction. But we need to go further. This is why Blue Brain recently joined with other 12 partners to propose the Human Brain Project – a very large 10 year project that will pursue precisely these aims. The new grouping has just been awarded a Euro 1.4 million European grant to formulate a detailed proposal. The EU decision to launch the project is expected in 2012.text & images ©BBP/EPFL Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 13: No more tool, no more processes, no more ruling, no more treaties.March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Driving a robot from Space StationMeet Justin, an android who will soon be controlled remotely by the astronauts in ESA’s Columbus laboratory on the International Space Station.To help turn robotics and telepresence into a standard tool for space missions, ESA is linking the Space Station and Earth for remotely controlling terrestrial robotic experiments from the orbital outpost.This Meteron (Multi-purpose End-To-End Robotic Operations Network) initiative is a testbed for future missions to the Moon, Mars and other celestial bodies. In the first Meteron tests, the Station astronauts will operate ESA’s Eurobot prototype from a computer equipped with special screens and a joystick.This prototype is a four-wheel rover with two arms, an advanced navigation system, cameras and sensors that has been under testing since 2008 at the Agency’s ESTEC space research and technology centre in the Netherlands.In the next phase, the engineers will allow astronauts to control a robot with the sense of force and ‘touch’. It can be connected to robots like Justin, developed by the DLR German Aerospace Center.“With these senses, the astronauts will have a real feeling of the forces that the arms of the robots are experiencing in their environment,” explains André Schiele, in charge of ESA’s Telerobotics & Haptics Laboratory. Kite PowerCurrent wind power generation relies on rigid supporting structures and is limited to altitudes up to 200 m. Wind at higher altitudes is significantly stronger and more persistent. To access this major potential of renewable energy, the Kite Power research group is developing a technology based on inflatable membrane wings which are tethered to a motor/generator unit on the ground. The present kite power demonstrator system operates a 25 or 50 m2 kite in periodic pumping mode to generate 20 kW mechanical reel-out power. Systematic testing and improvement has resulted in more than 100 completed pumping cycles since January 2010, indicating a continuous increase in cycle efficiency. Fast fashion meets luxury labels Take a stroll down London’s Old Bond Street or Milan’s Via Montenapoleone and you will see the latest offerings of Chanel and Gucci. Hop over to Oxford Street or Corso Vittorio Emanuele, and you will discover the window displays of H&M and Zara are exhibiting pretty much the same designs. Guess which is flush with cash? INSEAD Assistant Professor, Frederic Godart, has some surprising predictions as to which way this lucrative market is heading. Recommended Book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking By Malcolm Gladwell Blink is about the first two seconds of looking–the decisive glance that knows in an instant. Gladwell, the best-selling author of The Tipping Point, campaigns for snap judgments and mind reading with a gift for translating research into splendid storytelling. Building his case with scenes from a marriage, heart attack triage, speed dating, choking on the golf course, selling cars, and military maneuvers, he persuades readers to think small and focus on the meaning of “thin slices” of behavior. The key is to rely on our “adaptive unconscious” – a 24/7 mental valet – that provides us with instant and sophisticated information to warn of danger, read a stranger, or react to a new idea. Gladwell includes caveats about leaping to conclusions: marketers can manipulate our first impressions, high arousal moments make us “mind blind,” focusing on the wrong cue leaves us vulnerable to “the Warren Harding Effect” (i.e., voting for a handsome but hapless president). In a provocative chapter that exposes the “dark side of blink,” he illuminates the failure of rapid cognition in the tragic stakeout and murder of Amadou Diallo in the Bronx. He underlines studies about autism, facial reading and cardio uptick to urge training that enhances high-stakes decision-making. In this brilliant, cage-rattling book, one can only wish for a thicker slice of Gladwell’s ideas about what Blink Camp might look like. – Barbara Mackoff Zeitgeist: Moving Forward Zeitgeist: Moving Forward, by director Peter Joseph, is a feature length documentary work which will present a case for a needed transition out of the current socioeconomic monetary paradigm which governs the entire world society. This subject matter will transcend the issues of cultural relativism and traditional ideology and move to relate the core, empirical “life ground” attributes of human and social survival, extrapolating those immutable natural laws into a new sustainable social paradigm called a “Resource-Based Economy”. Michio Kaku and Carl Sagan are not affiliated with the Zeitgeist Movement. This is the Official Online (Youtube) Release of “Zeitgeist: Moving Forward” by Peter Joseph. 2 hr and 42 min On Jan. 15th, 2011, “Zeitgeist: Moving Forward” was released theatrically to sold out crowds in 60 countries; 31 languages; 295 cities and 341 Venues. It has been noted as the largest non-profit independent film release in history. Futurist Portrait: Syd Mead “There are more people in the world who make things than there are people who think of things to make.” – Syd Mead Sydney Jay Mead was born in St. Paul Minnesota, July 18th, 1933 but spent only a few years there before moving to what would be the second of many homes throughout the western United States prior to graduating from High School in Colorado Springs, Colorado in 1951. After serving a three year enlistment in the U.S. Army, Syd Mead continued on to the Art Center School in Los Angeles, (now the Art Center College of Design, Pasadena) where he graduated with great distinction in June of 1959. He was immediately recruited by the Ford Motor Company’s Advanced Styling Studio under the management of Elwood Engle which he left after 2 years in order to accept a variety of assignments to illustrate books and catalogues for large corporate entities such as United State Steel, Celanese, Allis Chalmers and Atlas Cement. In 1970, he launched Syd Mead Inc. in Detroit, Michigan to accommodate the high caliber of offers he received, most notably the PHILIPS ELECTRONICS. As the principal of his newly formed corporation in the 1970’s, Syd Mead spent about a third of his time in Europe primarily to provide designs and illustrations for Philips of Holland. Together with his roster of major American clients, he continues to make his creative mark, internationally. Throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s, Syd Mead, Inc. provided architectural renderings both interior and exterior, for such clients as Intercontinental Hotels, 3D International, Harwood Taylor & Associates, Don Ghia, and Gresham & Smith, to mention a few. His architectural clients have recently expanded to include the New York firm of Philip Koether Architects for which he designed the interior of a Manhattan eatery. Design activity accelerated after the corporate and personal move to California in 1975. In 1979, projects began to include work with most major studios, on such feature films as Star Trek: The Motion Picture, followed by, Bladerunner, TRON, 2010, Short Circuit, Aliens, Time Cop, Johnny Mnemonic, and most recently, “Mission Impossible-3” starring Tom Cruise for director J.J. Abrams. Beginning in 1983, Syd began to develop close working relationships with a number of major Japanese corporate clients, including; Sony, Minolta, Dentsu, Dyflex, Tiger, Seibu, Mitsukoshi, Bandai, NHK and Honda as well as contributing to two Japanese film projects, The New Yamato and Crises 2050. In the 1990s’, Syd supplied designs for two Japanese toy icons, “The New Yamato” and all eight robot characters in the new Turn-A Gundam mobile suite series which were also seen as characters in Television shows. With transportation design as his first love, Syd Mead seldom misses an opportunity to provide his unique blend of futurism and believability to those projects consisting of a vehicle that travels from “A” to ‘B”. Whether it be designing solar powered unicycles, show cars, luxury yachts, cruise ships, or the interiors of private 747’s, each receives the same attention to detail within a perfectly designed scenario. This combination has become a Syd Mead trademark and has been seen in everything from concept cars for Ford Motor Company to futuristic “Hypervans” which have been the subject of his latest full color illustrations. Syd Mead continues an active schedule of one man shows, which started with an invitation to exhibit at Documenta 6, Kassel, West Germany in 1973. His work has since been exhibited in Japan, Italy, California, and Spain. In 1983 in response to an in invitation from Chrysler Corporation to be a guest speaker to their design staff, Syd Mead assembled a selection of slides to visually enhance his lecture. The resulting presentation was a resounding success and has since been expanded and enhanced with computer generated imagery specifically assembled at the requests of such clients as Disney, Carnegie Mellon University, Purdue, Pratt University, the Society of Illustrators., and many others both academic and corporate around the world. In March of 2010, Syd completed a four city tour in Australia to capacity audiences at each venue. Always an advocate of new technologies, Syd Mead has expanded his horizons to include computer illustrations and graphics by mastering a variety of Softwares. Beginning with the official poster of the 1991 Concours d’Elegance “Eyes on the Classics” in Detroit, Michigan, Mr. Mead has attempted to utilize the latest in available techniques to their best advantage. In 1993, a digital gallery comprised of 50 examples of his art with interface screens designed by Syd Mead became one of the first CD ROM’s released in Japan in 1992 and in 2004 in response to many requests, cooperated with the Gnomon School of Visual Effects to produce a 4 volume, “How To” DVD series titled, “TECHNIQUES OF SYD MEAD” which continues to be sought after by designers around the world. His one man show, “Cavalcade to the Crimson Castle” consisting of 114 original paintings and illustrations, enjoyed a three month showing at the Center for the Arts in San Francisco in the Fall of 1996. The highlight of the show turned out to be Syd’s presentation and lecture attracted an audience that exceeded the available capacity of the auditorium. Subsequent personal appearances at schools across the country have attracted record numbers. A touring exhibition of his work is now in the planning stage to mark the 40th anniversary of Syd Mead Inc. In February 1998, Syd Mead relocated his studio to Pasadena, California, where he continues to be involved in a variety of design projects. He recently completed work on a documentary of his career with director Joaquin Montalvan, “VISUAL FUTURIST”, was released in May of 2007 on DVD and is available through the virtual Oblagon bookstore on the Syd Mead official webpage WWW.SYDMEAD.COM . Mead attributes success in an astonishing range of creative activities to the premise that imagination…the idea, supersedes technique. “There are more people in the world who make things than there are people who think of things to make.” 2019: A Future Imagined HD by Jim HunterVisual Futurist Syd Mead reflects upon the nature of creativity and how it drives the future in 1920×1080 progressive high definition. Agenda Past Season Events 2010/2011   Oct 14, 2010: the future of HackingNov 25, 2010: the future of HappinessJan 20, 2011: the future of Financial InfrastructureFeb 17, 2011: the future of ServicesMarch 17, 2011: the future of ShellApril 14, 2011: the future of the Human MindMay 19, 2011: the future of SingularityJune 23, 2011: the future of European Democracy      

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Club of Amsterdam Journal, September 2011, Issue 141

Content Trend Report for Luxury Interiors 2011 and 2012 Next Event Anisotropia Club of Amsterdam blogNews about the Future Yacht Islands Recommended Book The Indus EquationEnduring Legacies: Slavery, Serfdom and Prison in America, Europe and Russia Futurist Portrait: Dave Evans Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. Our living room may be one of our most important surroundings. It is were we relax and feel at home. Yet many of us let chance, coincidence and gifts from others decide how it looks. Others follow strict rules or theories. How important is your living room? How do you shape it? How will this change in the near future? …. interested in knowing more and sharing thoughts and ideas …. join us at the event about the future of the Living Room – Thursday, 13 October! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Trend Report for Luxury Interiors 2011 and 2012 Trend Report for Luxury Interiors 2011 and 2012By Laura K Pollard Interior Trends for 2011 and beyond: A consumer report and 4 Themes for inspiration: Sober Luxury Mixed Up Homelife Utility Revival Next Event the future of the Living RoomExperience interior design Thursday, October 13, 2011Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Location: Museum Geelvinck, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS AmsterdamThe conference language is English. In collaboration with Museum Geelvinck The speakers and topics are Kees Spanjers, Past-President, European Council of Interior Architects‘Venustas, Solacia, Durabilitas’, a house is not a home Desiree Kerklaan, BDes Spatial designerFurniture based on biomimicry ideas Rogier van der Heide, Vice President and Chief Design Officer, Philips LightingFeel what Light can Do Moderated by Job Romijn, bedenker, brainstormer, problem solver, artist. Anisotropia By Christoph Klemmt, Orproject Anisotropia, a proposal for Busan Opera House by Orproject Orproject is a London based architecture and design practice set up in 2006 by Francesco Brenta, Christoph Klemmt, Laura Micalizzi and Rajat Sodhi. Our work explores advanced geometries with an ecologic agenda, the integration of natural elements into the design results in an eco-narrative unfolding into the three dimensional space. Our projects range from experimental small scale installations to large real estate developments. We produce high end luxury design, covering all aspects of a project from design and planning to practical completion. Our work has been published and exhibited widely, amongst others for the London Architecture Festival, the Furniture Fair in Milan and at Palais de Tokyo in Paris. A FROZEN PIECE OF MUSIC Anisotropia, the design for the new Busan Opera House, is based on Klavierstück I, a composition for piano by Orproject director Christoph Klemmt. It is based on a twelve tone row which is repeated and altered by the different voices, in order to create complex rhythmic patterns. Anisotropia becomes the physical manifestation of Klavierstück I, a frozen piece of music. The design for the Busan Opera House is based on a simple strip morphology instead of a twelve tone row, which creates the facade, structure and rhythm within itself, its repetition happening in space instead of time. Layers of the strips form the façade structure, and the shifting and alteration of these patterns results in the formation of complex architectural rhythms which are used to control the light, view and shading properties of the façade. STRUCTURE AND LIGHT The proposed façade structure becomes the physical manifestation of Klavierstück I. Instead of on a twelve tone row, it is based on a strip morphology made from curved steel sections that creates the facade, structure and rhythm within itself. The repetition of the lamella happens in space, instead of the repetition in time of the twelve tone row. Parallel layers of the strips form the façade structure, and the alteration of its patterns results in architectural rhythms which are used to control the light, view and shading properties of the façade.The façade structure starts to flow from the sea, where its different layers are aligned and appear to be one. Then slowly the layers start to repeat at different intervals, resulting in a shift between them, the alignment breaks up, and a varied field of the façade rhythms begins to emerge. The façade structure is altered in the length of its repetition, but also the orientation and the depth of the extrusions are manipulated in order to control the view and light, depending on the programmatic requirements on the inside of the building. The flow of the façade layers is influenced by the programs which they enclose. As an effect of this the layers split up at certain points, and after forming a coherent system with the overlay of its rhythms, the individual layers separate and their individual patterns become visible. FLOW The positioning of the façade walls has been developed according to a custom written flow simulation. The algorithm describes a flow that is influenced and altered by a set of deflectors, which each act according to the magnitude of their attraction and the area of their influence. The distribution of the programmatic elements on the site is used as the deflector set that guides the flow of the rhythm lines which originate from the sea. On their way towards the city, the lines flow around the building elements such as the theatre and auditoriums, splitting up and being diverted by the deflectors.In the musical composition the different voices converge again. For the building, the separate façade layers spread out towards the city, form the structure for a bridge, and then slowly fade out and disappear back into the ground. PROJECT CREDITS Title: AnisotropiaArchitects: OrprojectDesign Team: Ho-Ping Hsia, Christoph Klemmt, Rolando Rodriguez-Leal, Rajat Sodhi, Natalia Wrzask, Christine WuStructural Engineers: Arups Structural Engineering, LondonTheatre Consultants: Arups Theatre Consulting, Hong KongAll images copyright Orproject 2011 Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 13: No more tool, no more processes, no more ruling, no more treaties.March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Danish report on nanomaterials concludes no current risk The Danish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has conducted a literature review examining current knowledge on the environmental and health risks of exposure to the most widely used nanomaterials, concluding that to date no significant risks have been linked to the use of these substances. The report evaluates seven nanomaterials used in consumer products, selected on the basis of their application volumes, potential human and environmental exposure and expected persistence or bioaccumulation. These are: Titanium dioxide, Cerium dioxide, Fullerenes, Silver, Iron, Silicon dioxide and Nanoclay It concludes that, based on current uses, nano-iron and nanoclay do not carry any health or environmental risk. For the other five materials, gaps in current knowledge mean there are areas that require further research before the risk potential can be fully evaluated, according to the Danish EPA. The report was written by researchers from the consultant group COWI and Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The Future of News “The Future of News” is a groundbreaking 10-part series for public television where the best minds in traditional and new media meet to discuss the role of a free press in an ever-changing digital democracy.Host Frank Sesno guides the weekly conversations that help audiences navigate the maze of digital information and explain the future of news in the 21st century and beyond. Correspondent Sonya Gavankar uses a state-of-the-art touch-screen monitor to explore specific Web sites that look at the different ways news is presented.Google, YouTube and Twitter weren’t around 15 years ago when 24-hour cable news reached more households than daily newspapers. Today the digital giants — along with the World Wide Web and the Internet — have permanently altered the news media landscape, challenging traditional news models and constantly redefining what news is and how it is delivered. The dramatic decline of newspapers and mainstream media gives this program special relevance for today’s news consumers. “The Future of News” is produced by the Newseum for American Public Television and supported by a generous grant from the Ford Foundation. Yacht Islands “At Yacht Island Design we like to do things differently: Our approach is to consider the design in a holistic manner. We like to ensure that a common theme runs throughout the yacht, from the overall exterior shape down to the smallest interior detail. The most important thing for us is to ensure the original client-driven concept is achieved in a flowing and seamless manner.” Tropical Island ParadiseThe guest cabanas are nestled around the pool and highlights the two deck owners’ suites carved out of the front of the volcano and looking out across the bow. The interior features an owners suite located inside the volcano and spread over two decks. The living room balcony affords views out over the front of the yacht from behind the waterfall. Located behind the bedroom is the owners private spa. ‘The Streets of Monaco’‘The Streets of Monaco’ is our first design proposal. The theme is based around the Mediterranean principality with the primary focus being the famous grand prix circuit. The idea was to recreate the circuit as a fully functional kart track able to accommodate three karts side by side to allow for plenty of overtaking. By sizing the track in this way it has driven the overall dimensions of the yacht and the placement of the famous landmarks. Recommended Book The Fundamentals of Interior ArchitectureBy John Coles, Naomi House This book offers an introduction to the key elements involved in the creation of aesthetically appealing and practically appropriate interior architecture. Each element, or fundamental, uses theory and contemporary and historical references to illustrate the richness and diversity of design practice. Using examples taken from work created by contemporary practitioners, The Fundamentals of Interior Architecture offers a unique insight into the principles and processes that underpin the work of the professional interior designer. The book contains five sections which together encapsulate the principle ideas, skills and knowledge that are employed in the creation of spatial solutions that support the needs of the client and which recognise the qualities of the building and its situation. Using illustrations and photographs these elements are identified and described in a way that makes them accessible to the reader. The Indus Equation By Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, India IntroductionLike most rivers in the world, the Indus River in South Asia does not recognize political boundaries. It crosses over Tibet, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan before finally emptying into the Arabian Sea at the foot of the Sindh province in Pakistan. The two main benefactors of the Indus River waters are India and Pakistan. After partition in 1947 these waters formed a major cause of tension between the two countries. The headwaters of the river were situated in India while the body formed Pakistan’s main source of freshwater. In 1948 an Inter-Dominion Accord was set up wherein India was obligated to release sufficient amounts of water to Pakistan for a nominal fee in order to meet the country’s immediate requirements. However, a more permanent solution was needed when tensions over water arose once again in 1951. While Kashmir – one of the more intractable issues between India and Pakistan – seemed far from a resolution, water provided a stepping stone upon which India and Pakistan could start a process of reconciliation. Nonetheless, reaching an understanding over the most optimum distribution of the Indus River Waters was no easy task. It took nine years of negotiations before India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in partnership with the World Bank and with financial assistance from the U.S. and U.K. The IWT provides a mechanism for amicable water sharing between India and Pakistan, a luxury uncommon to many countries that have Transboundary Rivers. Since its ratification in 1960, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars. Disagreements, disputes and the need for arbitration have arisen however they have been settled via legal procedures – provided for within the framework of the IWT – and not via armed conflict. The treaty is considered to be one of the most successful watersharing endeavours in the world today even though analysts acknowledge the need to update certain technical specifications and expand the scope of the document to include climate change. As India and Pakistan stand at the threshold of yet another attempt to further cooperation, ‘water’ – as was the case in 1951 – can provide an impetus to tackle larger issues like Kashmir. There has been a lot of controversy and debate about the IWT, however, the core problems are minor in many cases and can be addressed with care through a process of negotiation. The first section of this paper provides a comprehensive overview of Pakistan’s water situation; the second part discusses points of contention between India and Pakistan regarding the shared Western Rivers of the Indus and the conclusion provides the final analysis and recommendations that will assist water cooperation between these two nations in the future. Overview of Pakistan’s Water ResourcesPakistan receives its water from 3 river basins – The Indus, Karan and Makran River Basins. Of these three, Pakistan is most dependent on the Indus River Basin as it covers 71% of its territory – comprising the whole of Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, PoK and the eastern parts of Balochistan – and provides water for 77% of the population. The Karan and the Makran originate along the plains of Balochistan and they cover only 15% and 14% of Pakistan’s territory respectively. The Indus Basin has a large groundwater aquifer that covers 16.2 million ha (hectare). Groundwater is pumped with the help of tubewells, currently numbered at 0.9 million and 87% of these are run on diesel, making groundwater pumping impossible during Pakistan’s frequent periods of load shedding. Most urban and rural water is supplied from groundwater sources. Salt-water intrusion is a problem in Pakistan with about 36% of the groundwater classified as highly saline. Average Annual Freshwater Availability, which accounts mainly for the Indus River Basin flow is pegged at 130MAF (million acre feet) but can reach as low as 116MAF per year. In 2008, total water withdrawal was estimated at 148.68MAF (183.4km3) creating a deficit of roughly 18MAF. Surface water withdrawal accounted for 98.74MAF (121.8km3) and groundwater withdrawal accounted for 49.94MAF (61.6km3). [It should be noted that withdrawal here refers mainly to the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) as withdrawal outside of this is negligible.] Annual precipitation in Pakistan is roughly 500mm although this varies with less than 100mm in certain parts of Balochistan and Sindh and 1,500mm in the foothills and mountains of Punjab and NWFP. There is also an extreme variability in rainfall between the seasons. There are 2 main rainfall seasons in Pakistan – Rabi season (October-March) and Kharif Season (April-September). 60% of the annual rainfall is received during the peak of the Kharif season from July-September. Similar to the rainfall periods, 85% of the flow of the Indus is received during the Kharif Season (April to September) and the remaining 15% is received during the Rabi season (October to March). In addition, 80% of the water in the Kharif season is received from melt water. […] Issues of Contentment[…]Need for a Comprehensive Water Agreement The issue of the 12 dams is less about India’s development assistance program in Afghanistan and more about a joint-agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Kabul River. The two countries attempted to draft a water treaty in 2003 and then again in 2006 however the attempts failed on both occasions due to a number of reasons. As a result no institutionalized framework for cooperation on the Kabul River currently exists. A comprehensive water treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan can help tremendously to address disagreements between the two countries about storage capacity and dam building. Moreover, the IWT can be used as a model to inform the Af-Pak water treaty. Even though the IWT does not stand independent of limitations it is considered one of the most successful water treaties in the world, let alone the region, and it offers a better solution to water-sharing than the absence of any treaty at all. Due to Pakistan’s unique rights over the Kabul River, the IWT’s specifications concerning run-of-the-river dams as opposed to conventional dams can be used to a certain extent. It is also important for India to be involved in Af-Pak water dialogues. Pakistan’s dissatisfaction over the interpretation of the IWT with regard to dam construction is often stated as an impediment to a subsequent Af-Pak agreement on the Kabul River. It may therefore be conducive to discuss Pakistan’s issues regarding dam-building with both countries present. As the lower riparian for all intensive purposes, Pakistan stands to gain a lot from a treaty. ConclusionsThe concluding remarks will summarize a few salient points from this report regarding Pakistan’s water situation as a whole, its approach to the IWT, water relations between India and Pakistan and lastly possible measures to improve these relations. Pakistan’s water situation is not simply predicated on water flows from India. The low supply of water in Pakistan is largely due to water conveyance losses, poor infrastructure, increasing desalination, water pollution and climate change. Increased silting in the country’s dams has led to a decrease in Pakistan’s overall storage and hydel generation capacity. Certain biases at the centre, have led to inter-provincial disparities in water distribution. The lack of demand management measures has led to water wastage in the agricultural and domestic sectors. Even climate change and the retreating Himalayan glaciers have contributed to the water crisis in Pakistan. Often times India is blamed for all of these factors. It is true that the majority of Pakistan’s water resources flow from India, however, India has no control over Pakistan’s internal mismanagement of water resources or climatic conditions. Pakistan’s fears about Indian manipulation of water resources are based less on facts and more on a “lower riparian anxiety complex”. Pakistan has recently been deemed a water scarce country (1,000m3/capita/year), it is struggling to cope with increasing water demand and in the midst of all this it does not want to deal with a further reduction in its water resources. As a result, Pakistan pushes the panic button every time India constructs a water development project in J&K. Its objections are purely emotive with no technical foundation. India has adhered to the IWT stipulations on water works in J&K for the past 50 years, constructing strictly run-of-the-river projects on the Chenab, Jhelum and the Indus Rivers, which it is permitted to do. India is well under the storage capacities set aside by the IWT for agricultural, power and incidental usage. India has also been open to design changes, across the board, for all of its projects thus far. In the case of Baglihar, India engaged in consultations with Pakistan from 1999-2004 in order to address Pakistani concerns. In the case of the Wullar Barrage, India made major design changes in its 1991 draft and ultimately suspended construction, losing several crores of rupees, due to Pakistani objections. In the case of Kishanganga India is once again in the midst of finding a compromise in design and process that would be acceptable to both sides. All of these actions indicate that India is making an effort to address Pakistan’s concerns. However, these concerns should be valid otherwise they could seriously harm trust relations between the two countries and affect the integrity of the IWT. Pakistani objections on small projects like Nimoo Bazgo, which are designed to generate an infinitesimal amount of power – 45MW as compared to the 969MW Neelam-Jhelum power plant – will not only erode trust and waste manpower and resources on both sides of the border, but this policy of blanket objections to all water projects will hinder development in J&K and PoK. In the case of the Tulbul project, Pakistan’s consent could assist development in both J&K as well as PoK and this would be in the true spirit of the future cooperation clause of the IWT, however Pakistan continues to take an alarmist view with regard to water. Conspiracy theories on water, propagated by the Pakistani media, militant groups and even the political and military leadership on Indian “water aggression” will only encourage India to be more guarded in the dissemination of water related information. There is a clear agenda on the part of these establishments to propound a theory that the only way to gain complete control over Pakistan’s water resources is to gain a foothold over J&K. As long as this theory remains primary to the Pakistani agenda, India can never trust that Pakistan wants to use the IWT as a tool for cooperation rather than a tool to stall Indian water development in J&K. Certain issues between India and Pakistan regarding dam filling and spillway gates must be addressed once and for all so that they do not arise again and again with each subsequent project. In addition, some of the basic principles of the IWT and even the current disagreements regarding its interpretation can be used to inform potential water agreements for other Transboundary Rivers in South Asia, case in point being the Kabul River in Afghanistan. The Indus Water Treaty ranks as one of the most successful international treaties on water cooperation. However, because the treaty was designed in 1960 it does not provide for changes in water availability, increasing demands, environmental factors and technological advancements. These have all changed considerably since 1960 and there is a need to strengthen and extend the IWT, particularly its sections on future cooperation. The expansion of the IWT could focus on an integrated development plan for the conservation of the Indus Basin. India and Pakistan can jointly set up an organization, with representatives from both countries, whose functions would entail identifying short term and long term supply capacity of the basin and its integrated development, creating techniques to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change and setting up infrastructure and coordinating the different technical agencies in both governments. Development of such a plan would require a vast amount of technical and financial resources, perhaps with the World Bank agencies playing a lead role. This plan would involve a creative solution to engage in issues concerning Jammu and Kashmir. Cooperation on water will start the wheels turning on a larger Indo-Pak peace process without burdening it with an overtly political dimension. In the end, an integrated water development plan may appear to be utopian as it will require a physical and psychological paradigm shift which can be accomplished in the form of a complete end to hostilities and a change in the way we approach the issue of water sharing. However, there is no alternative to such bold thinking if India and Pakistan want to build a future based on trust, cooperation and a genuine commitment to the social and economic development of the millions of poor in both countries. You can download the full report lick here Enduring Legacies: Slavery, Serfdom and Prison in America, Europe and Russia By Dimitri Devyatkin Dimitri Devyatkin, a video-filmmaker and writer, grew up in New York. He studied documentary film directing in Russia, produced prize winning documentaries that were broadcast in the US and Europe, also worked for CBS News, ABC and others. Summary: The US, Europe and Russia are deeply affected by the legacies of coerced labor – slavery and serfdom, incarceration and concentration camps, not boding well for the future. Who benefits?A giant arc starts from the earliest days in Europe with the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Reformation. Great shifts occurred as large groups left their own land and went to work for others. Previously, people in pre-industrial, medieval times worked slower without technology but provided for themselves in fewer hours than today, leaving more time for arts, dancing, religion and socializing. As new geographic areas opened for possible exploitation, the great need for manual workers could only be filled using coercive means and earned great profits. These forms of coercion — slavery, serfdom, prison and bonded labor — are precursors of the concentration camp, the Gulag, today’s prison-industrial-police complex, the modern ghetto and mind control through the media. Under slavery, the slave owner beats the slave to make him work. The employer cannot beat a free laborer, but instead waits for the worker to be hungry, so he accepts working for low pay — earning profit for the employer. These “Enduring Legacies” of coerced labor are raw, unhealed scars, still rampant in our world today. In the US, the system of chattel slavery was the ugliest manifestation. In Russia, peasant serfdom ran almost parallel, with long-term effects to this day. Europe benefited greatly from slavery – the slave trade was the basis of the Industrial Revolution. Today, Europe offers different solutions and experiences. For example, prisons in Norway are more humane than in either Russia or the US, while Germany offers convicted violators systems of punishment negotiation with the victims of their crimes. The future is frightening in regard to coming ways of coercion or Big Brother social control. In prisons of the future, high technology may tip the advantage to the jailer in imposing inhuman conditions, such as surgically implanted zappers and electronic disabling armbands. Will these technological fixes make a difference in maintaining the obscene imbalance of wealth vs poverty? In the last 20 years, the growth of income for the top .01% of America, the top 400 families, has been stupendous in the many trillions of dollars. The top 1% of Americans own 40% of the country’s wealth. The system perpetuates an inequality that is even greater than the days of the Pharaoh or any previous empire. How long do people accept working so much more than necessary for the sake of a rich boss or investor? The work provided is worth more than is paid for it – maybe 25% more – “surplus value” – the source of profits for the wealthy. If workers benefit from the system themselves, they accept it. A small parasite is tolerated if it does not eat too much. But if the parasite gets big and demands more, it becomes a problem. As long as there is injustice and high unemployment, unfair distribution of essential resources in the face of conspicuous consumption, there will be struggle. It cannot be suppressed but must be ameliorated. Looters and rioters are ugly symptoms bred by inhuman social conditions. Instead of police and military suppression, people need jobs to feed their families. Only a program of widespread government employment can solve the financial mess. Work has to be dignified, respectful and humane. A person who works every day at an enterprise becomes just as invested in that enterprise, as a Mercedes-driving executive who comes in once a week to collect the earnings. The bank used to be a normal community service, like the post office, the doctor and the grocery store. Now they’re all Big Box mammoth enterprises. Small businesses are driven out and the banks are all labeled Chase. On nearly every block of downtown Manhattan, you see former small banks changed to Chase, and the brash young bankers, their loafers up on their desks, relaxing. Somebody seems to have benefited from the 2008 financial collapse: “Big fish eat the little fish.” A little rebellion now and then is a good thing, as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical, medicine for sound health of government. … The aristocracy of our moneyed corporations already dares to challenge our government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country. Thomas Jefferson We still accept mind sets of the old social structure based on slavery. We are the United States of slave owners and moneylenders. The same struggle for which so many fought and died in the American, the French and the Russian Revolutions, is still in effect today – the struggle for liberty and justice, for rights of men and women, to work for fair pay, for representation in their government. Why are the rights of bankers and investors supreme over everyone else? Why can’t we all have free medical care, free public transportation, free telephone, TV, media, free education, free childcare, low priced housing, healthy food, social services? Are we not good enough? Can have a just society in the future? Because our society today is so corrupt and so deeply controlled by criminal parasites, before we can attempt any serious change, we must be ready for a virulent counter attack. We cannot beat them with bullets against bullets. We can have contact with people’s minds and souls. There are surely more good people than monsters and killers. I – History/Roots A. Rise of Slavery and Serfdom as systems: Slavery before 1492 was not based on race. White-skinned blue-eyed Slavs were enslaved by the Romans. Some former slaves reached greatness, e.g. Aesop, a few could acquire their own freedom, and the status of being a slave was not necessarily inherited. The rise of chattel slavery in America and serfdom in Russia were stages in the growth of capitalism in both countries – forms of super exploitation. Africans had visited the Western Hemisphere long before Columbus, riding strong transatlantic currents between Mali and Brazil. Large stone heads with African features are testimony to pre-Colombian Africans having visited Brazil. Africa had highly developed societies, where centuries’ old cultures and rich universities stood, astronomy and surgery were practiced. They had not developed metal weaponry, so when confronted by Europeans, they collapsed. Chattel slavery of Africans in America began under Columbus. He was convinced that he had discovered a new route to India. When the so-called “Indians” – Native Americans his men had enslaved ran away or died, Columbus returned to Europe determined to bring enslaved Africans skilled at producing sugar and rice and mining gold, work which Europeans could not perform in such brutal conditions. “Slav” means slave in Latin; Slavs from Eastern Europe were slaves to the Romans. Slavs were ethnically native to Russia, as were the noblemen who owned them. In old Russia, serfs “came with the land,” so they were not usually bought and sold separately. Land had originally been distributed by the Tsar to the nobles, whose only obligation in return was military service, the serfs as foot soldiers, the nobles as officers. This efficient system has led to Russia occupying one sixth the land surface of the globe. Estates in Russia held far more slaves than the American plantations held enslaved Africans. Whole societies of Africans were uprooted by the Atlantic slave trade, as if they were livestock, and transplanted violently in the genocidal “Middle Passage,” triangular sea trade. After selling their sugar in Europe, slave traders bought enslaved Africans, which were transported to be sold in the Americas. The high mortality on board the slave ships richly nourished the sharks of the Atlantic Ocean, a furious process of selection by which only the strong survived. This may have favored people with the sickle cell trait in their blood, as a survival mechanism in horrific conditions, but which led to increased sickle cell anemia in generations of the blacks who survived. Which European countries especially benefited from the slave trade? For example, what was the basis of the Netherlands’ “Special Relationship” with the United States? In the gigantic open land empires of America and Russia, labor was sorely needed. Free laborers were not reliable, and forced labor was seen as an acceptable way to assure a sufficient supply of workers especially in the highly profitable agricultural enterprises of the American South and the Russian breadbasket heartland. B. Slavery in the American RevolutionBesides the famous declarations in Boston of “No Taxation without Representation,” the American Revolution was largely controlled by Southern slave owners, who were concerned about preserving their “property,” which meant slaves. England seemed ready to ban slavery in 1772. In a case reported widely on both sides of the Atlantic, James Somerset, a slave who’d been brought to England by his master, was declared free by a British judge, effective upon having set foot on British soil. Was continuation of the “abominable practice” possibly a stimulus for Revolution among America’s slave owning elite? John Adams of Massachusetts and Thomas Jefferson of Virginia made compromises with the Southern slave owners. New York and Brooklyn in particular were heavily dependent on slavery. Virginia’s British Governor Lord Dunmore declared slaves free if they could reach British lines. More blacks died during the war than whites, mostly of smallpox and starvation. Thousands left the plantations, but most were either re-enslaved or died. C. In the new USA, enslaved Africans, about 20% of the population, could not vote, but they were counted for taxation purposes in the Constitution as 3/5ths of a person, a boon when counted as a constituent for the purpose of Congressional representation. US federal power served to guarantee and perpetuate slavery. James Madison, principal writer of the Constitution, was particularly concerned with slave revolts, having lost his grandparents in such a rebellion. Several states joined the Union for reasons directly associated with slavery – e.g. Florida was admitted as a slave state so owners could chase after their runaway slaves, called “Maroons,” from Georgia. D. In Russia, with over 80% of the population serfs, the entire economy was structured on the system of forced labor. In Russia, military service of the serfs was provided to the State free of charge by their owners, creating a stable, long-lasting, hierarchical social order. Slaves were never more than one fifth of the total American population, and only exceeded the population of whites in a few Southern states, like South Carolina and Virginia. Most slaves in America lived on smaller plantations, with between 20-100 individuals. Russian serfs lived on vast estates with hundreds or thousands of inhabitants. Some estates had tens of thousands of serfs, and absentee owners were the norm.E. Building Empires on the backs of slaves and serfsThe expansion Westward in North America – the second “Middle Passage,” and the Russian move to the Far Eastern Siberia were both built on captive labor. Serf and slave rebellions were brutally suppressed and the historical evidence is still missing in the histories of both countries. Slavery and serfdom represented tremendous profit sources for the owners, in both America and Russia. Slave and serf-owning classes controlled their societies, and imposed their ways on the governments. Profits earned from the slave trade provided the starting capital that built Manchester, Bristol and Liverpool, and launched the industrial revolution in Britain in the 17th and 18th centuries. Decisions made at certain possible turning points led to huge differences, such as Jefferson and Adams accepting the onerous terms of the slave owners. Slavery in the Protestant United States differed from slavery in Catholic Latin and South America, where there was more intermarriage and actual integration of Black, native American and whites. Latin American culture accepts more integration than North American, where black music, life-style, humor, even language, is markedly divided from white. There were more slave rebellions in Latin America than in the North. The tremendous power and wealth generated by slavery in America and serfdom in Russia explains why the owners insisted for so long on maintaining the “Peculiar Institution” – of owning other human beings. II — Abolitionism, Emancipation, Integration, Jim Crow, Civil Rights, Ghettos A. Tsar Alexander freed the serfs in 1861, but the act was not enforced, so there was little change in society. After the serfs were “freed,” there was little immediate change but many peasants lost their farm workplaces, and migrated to cities and industrial areas. Russia became an industrial giant in the 1880s with a steady flow of cheap wage labor. B. The North’s Civil War victory was due, in part, to more effective social management, the advantages of wage-earning workers in place of a chattel system that enabled a fast-growing early-industrial society in the North, compared to the South. Lincoln was the only president until Kennedy (tried) to use the government’s Constitutional power to print actual “Greenback” US Dollars issued by the US Treasury. No other President has done so since. He openly chose to pursue the war for monetary reasons, not for the principle of freeing the slaves. (The Emancipation Proclamation of 1863 only applied to slaves held in rebel territories, so slaves in other states had to wait until the 13th Amendment to the Constitution to be freed.) Lincoln’s assassination was fomented by agents, who it seems, were hired by European banking interests. The Union Army enforced the Emancipation of slaves in the South, making it a reality. However, the brief period of progress in the Reconstruction period was soon rescinded and the harsh Jim Crow post-slavery variant set in. Lynching became more common in former slave states after Emancipation. Slave owners before 1863 were reluctant to destroy their slaves for financial reasons. Capital punishment is a direct extension of lynching; both forms of revenge rationalized as a “deterrent” or an example for other possible felons.Albert Einstein and Paul Robeson were good friends in Princeton, NJ, and they worked together publicly against lynching, which was especially rampant in the South after World War II. Lynching became more prevalent as some Blacks returning triumphantly after fighting the Nazis were considered uppity and “had to be taught a lesson.” In 1947 Einstein and Robeson wrote a piece on lynching for the New York Times Op Ed page but it was refused for publication. C.Prison became an extension of slavery in America and serfdom in Russia. The same overseers and the exact same methods from former plantations morphed into the South’s criminal justice system.Professor Loïc Wacquant, UC Berkeley: “Several ‘peculiar institutions’ have operated to define, confine, and control African-Americans… slavery, Jim Crow racism, the ghetto.” We now have “the novel institutional complex formed by the remnant of the dark ghetto and the carceral apparatus – the super ghetto, the prison system.” US – lead incarcerator in the world: The US has 1/20th of the world’s population, and 1/4 of the world’s prisoners. For black males, 1 in 15 is behind bars. With 2.4 million people in prison, the US now surpasses Russia with the world’s highest percentage of population behind bars: one in 99 Americans. The US is currently world leader in prisons. But until the collapse of Soviet power, the world leadership in incarceration was the USSR. In the 20th century millions of Soviet citizens were imprisoned and millions died in the Gulag. Alexander Solzhenitsyn in “Gulag Archipelago” wrote that Stalin’s advisors recommended a dual-purpose policy:1) Round up masses of outspoken peasants on accusations they are “anti-Soviet”,2) Use them as free labor to build the new societyGiant construction projects, the Moscow and White Sea Canals, vast apartment complexes and factories still in use today were built by slave prison laborers – “zeks” – in the 1930s. III – Long term effects We are descendants of slave/serf societies and it shows in our mind-sets, our ways of life and forms of employment. We’ve inherited a high rate of violence in society, and we use incarceration and police violence to settle socially caused deviations. We keep trying to solve problems by locking people up. Future trends may be frightening. Dr. Joy DeGruy Lear, Portland State University, Post-Traumatic Slave Syndrome, has pioneered a theory – Enslaved people suffered trauma from the horrors of slavery; a disorder passed down from one generation to the next. The trauma is now exhibited in slave descendants as “adaptive behaviors” – obstacles to progress in the African American community.Did the natural selection of the brutal “Middle Passage” and the daily horrors of outright slavery, make Black people even more survival oriented? Until the breakdown of the Black church and matriarchal society, Blacks had a much lower suicide rate than the general population – but now it has risen to the society norm. Black America, were it a nation by itself, would be the 10th largest economy in the world. Blacks are 12% of the U.S. population and they spend over $100 billion a year as consumers and taxpayers. The Future: New technological means of coercion – “Cattle-prod” internal zapper chips have recently been patented that can be implanted surgically, even without a recipient’s assent, and can be triggered from a distance to punish the person. The chips can be inlaid in such a way that scar tissue grows over them, making them removable only through deep surgery. Another variant patented uses an arm-band with a needle turned in against the wearer. Tampering with the arm-band sets off a zapper with a knock-out drug injected to the person. Professor Nils Christie, Professor of Criminology at the University of Oslo, Norway, has done comparisons of different countries’ rates of incarceration, length of prison terms sentenced for the same crimes, length of actual time served, demands for parole and release, and rates of recidivism. The US and Russia rank among the world’s highest in all categories. The Scandinavian countries are some of the lowest. Why?What factors make societies like ours so concerned with dealing out harsh punishments to citizens who disobey the rules? CIA torture techniques, black sites, detention prisons and extraordinary renditions are the new forms of these same forces. Until just over a hundred years ago, there were despicable exhibitions of live human beings – Human Zoos. As late as 1899, Zurich, Basel, many other European and American cities had places where throngs of people would be entertained by viewing caged human beings from Africa perform all life functions under the glare of spectators. Several Eskimos were brought back to New York by Robert Perry in the early 1900s. They were housed in the top floor of the American Museum of Natural History. When an elderly Eskimo gentleman died, his son was consoled with a funeral and fake burial in New York, but later the son was horrified to see his own father’s body stuffed and mounted in an exhibit in the museum. Are we going backwards as a society? Will we return to these horrible times of slavery and coercion or are today’s versions – wage slavery, prisons and unemployed masses – more enforceable, higher profit and more efficient? Futurist Portrait: Dave Evans Dave Evans, Chief Futurist, Cisco Innovations Practice Internet Business Solutions Group A Cisco veteran of more than 21 years, Evans joined IBSG from IT, where he most recently managed the global architecture innovations team, focusing on IP telephony, unified messaging, wireless, networked home, and Internet-related technologies. Evans has a passion for applying technology innovation to real business needs. He is also respected outside Cisco as an expert in emerging technologies and has numerous relationships with thought leaders, including those in the venture capital community. Evans has garnered numerous awards and recognitions throughout his Cisco career, including the CEO’s “Unsung Hero” award, which he has received twice, and numerous other awards for technology innovation and teaming. Prior to Cisco, Evans held varied IT positions at both AMD and MMI. Evans has pursued computer science and computer engineering at San Jose University in San Jose, California. Agenda NEW Season Events 2011/2012 October 13, 2011the future of the Living RoomExperience interior designLocation: Museum Geelvinck, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS Amsterdam November 3, 2011the future of the FutureUtopia versus The End Of The World As We Know ItLocation: VKG, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam January 2012the future of Film February 2012the future of Social Biomimicry March 29, 2012the future of LanguagesLocation: Amsterdam April 2012the future of Germany May 2012the future of Taxes June 2012the future of Urban Energy The Breakfast Club will soon announce the next events! Credentials Felix Bopp, Editor-in-ChiefRaphaelle Beguinel, Assistant Editor

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Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2011, Issue 142

Content Limits to Knowing Next Events 3D Food Printer Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Aquarius Yields NASA’s First Global Map of Ocean Salinity Recommended Book Domestic slavery: An invisible modern tragedy? China-Africa Partnership Futurist Portrait: David Brian Johnson Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. Our next two Season Events are about the future of the Living Room – Thursday, 13 October! Experience interior design and about the future of the Future – Thursday, 3 November! The future of the Future is an examination of the various future vision as portrayed by futurists, academics and scenario thinkers. Most futurists who try to earn a living telling stories about the future quickly learn that a happy end sells much better than a tale oftroubles. Because of this the scenario’s futurists tend to publicly talk about tend to be wondrous tales of the Startrek/Jetsons world were our problems have been solved by technology and sensible policies based on rational thinking. Telling these tales, and support them with a lot of research data is a genuinely good way to help non specialists think beyond the usual limitation of their profession. But there is a danger in the fact that many futurists need to ‘sell’ their stories is influencing their objectivity. Just as is it easy to tell a very positive story about the future it is easy to spin a vision were thing end very badly for humanity. But mostpeople don’t like bad news let alone pay for it. Can we find a better method for forecasting? And will we want to listen to those forecasts? This is a serious challenge and we need more brains involved in solving it. May we count on you brain? Concept: Arjen Kamphuis…. interested in knowing more and sharing thoughts and ideas …. join us! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Limits to Knowing By Patrick Crehan, Director, Club of Amsterdam, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates The way we think about the future has immense influence and impact on both our professional and personal lives. This is especially true for those who work in positions of responsibility for organizations and the people in them. They are the ones who decide on a regular if not continuous basis what time and money, human and material resources should be allocated to which activities so as to ensure optimal outcomes for themselves and their families, for their organizations and society as a whole. The tools we employ to think about the future are constantly evolving. Our ability to gather store and process information about the past and the present state of the world is expanding at an extraordinary rate. Several pas Club of Amsterdam events have looked at the extraordinary pace of progress in sensing, connecting and computing. These have helped our members explore the consequences of how our ability to sense the present, combine it with knowledge of the past and simulate the future, has expanded at an extraordinary rate. But it is worth while taking a look at the limits of our knowing about the future to see if we really understand how to use these powerful tools and ask if we really are on the right track, if we really are mastering the tools required to help us design and build the better worlds we want to create. Swept up in the euphoria of technological progress, there is a risk of “irrational exuberance”, that we might overlook small issues of great consequence. For this reason it is useful occasionally to go back to basics and take stock of where we are and try to filter what is real from what is mere illusion. The first reality check concerns the nature of our ability to model the world, simulate it and make predictions. Despite the extraordinary progress we have already made, and the very reasonable expectation that by the end of this decade we will have succeeded in feats as complex as simulating the workings of an entire human brain, there are real limits to what we can simulate and what we can predict. So far I am aware of at least 3 hard barriers to success in modeling and simulation, and there may be many more. The first is a demonstration by the philosopher Carl Popper, about the impossibility of predicting the future. His argument is very elegant and relies on special relativity. Effectively he provides a proof that if the world is governed by the principles of relativity, then even if we have perfect theories, and infinitely fast computing capabilities, we will still never have enough information available to always make accurate predictions even arbitrarily small times into the future. Of course we will get away with ‘good enough’ most of the time, but he explains that there is a hard barrier between that and being able to guarantee getting it right every-time. The second barrier has to do with the discovery of quantum mechanics and has to do with the ‘knowability’ of nature. The initial insights came from the work of Heisenberg and have been debated ever since. The general consensus is that it is impossible to simultaneously possess knowledge of arbitrary accuracy about the state of the physical world. In physical terms it means that we may know the position of a particle with arbitrary accuracy at a given time, but only by sacrificing accuracy in our knowledge of its state of motion. This is a hard limit on what we can know about the world and seems to be no way around it. Once again we can get by pretty well for most intents and purposes but bear in mind that many modern engineered products rely on relativity and quantum physics for their operation. Both relativity and quantum physics have left the realm of science and entered the realm of engineering many years ago. So these limits we refer to are real, impact our work and are faced by engineers every day. The third major barrier is one which only really emerged or became clear in the 1970s with the discovery of what is called ‘deterministic chaos’. This has to do with a form of ‘unknowability’ that afflicts even old fashioned Newtonian systems. It does not rely on artifacts of relativity of quantum mechanics. It would exist even if quantum mechanics or relativity were not true. This insight into the limits of ‘knowability’ go back to the discovery of dynamical systems that can be modeled perfectly, for which solutions can be shown to always exist, but which can never be calculated by any algorithm with any degree of accuracy. These systems often appear random or chaotic, when they are absolutely deterministic. Even though we know everything about what drives these systems, we also know that we cannot simulate them in any reliable way. In practice what happens is that arbitrarily small errors in the measurement of the parameters of the system lead to arbitrarily large errors in the results of a simulation. These are three hard barriers to what we can know from measuring modeling and simulating the world. There are others. Despite these limits we do pretty well and simulation can be a very useful tool when used in the right way. The spectacular collapse of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) run by Nobel Prize wining economists is the text-book case of what can happen when the models are applied outside of their domain of applicability. We could move on from discussion about errors in simulations based on models to the impact of errors in the model itself, but that is a subject for another day. Instead it is interesting to look at issues relating not so much to our ability to predict the future, but to our ability to control it. The future is highly subjective. No one creates it alone. Chance requires the cooperation or complicity of a great number of actors. It is an iron rule of change and it is true whether we are talking about change on the level of the global economy, a business unit or our personal circle of family and friends. To affect change it is not enough for one person to know about the future, they need to bring along everyone else by forming change-coalitions for want of a better word. The starting point is creating and sharing relevant knowledge. This touches upon the philosophy and mission of the Club of Amsterdam, and there are many techniques for doing this. But even this is not enough. Given all the knowledge and understanding in the world, people may then need to act. This is the real barrier to making change happen, especially when we are looking at long-terms issues that do require an immediate solution. Such issues tend to get put off until it is too late. Making change happen requires not so much progress in simulation but progress in understanding factors such as motivation, confidence, courage, the will to act in ones own interest. This was why it took about 50 years before clear and overwhelming evidence linking smoking to lung cancer became generally accepted. It is why even today people do things like smoking that they know will shorten their lives and limit the time they have to enjoy the good things of this life. Arguable it is also one of the reasons why progress is so difficult on issues such as climate change. Despite the incredible progress we have made in out ability to collect and analyze data, model and simulate the world, make predictions about the future, we are still very poor in moving from knowledge to action. Next Events the future of the Living RoomExperience interior designThursday, October 13, 2011Location: Museum Geelvinck, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS AmsterdamThe conference language is English. In collaboration with Museum Geelvinck The speakers and topics are Kees Spanjers, Past-President, European Council ofInterior Architects‘Venustas, Solacia, Durabilitas’, a house is nota home Desiree Kerklaan, BDes Spatial designerFurniture based on biomimicry ideas Rogier van der Heide, Vice President and Chief DesignOfficer, Philips LightingFeel what Light can Do Moderated by Job Romijn, bedenker, brainstormer, problem solver, artist. the future of the FutureUtopia versus The End Of The World As We Know ItThursday, November 3, 2011Location: Volkskrantgebouw, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam The conference language is English.In collaboration with Gendo The speakers and topics are Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute,Oxford UniversityThe work futurists do, humanities great potential. Arjen Kamphuis, Co-founder, CTO, GendoThe Cassandra Syndrome, nobody likes a party pooper. Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow,Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford UniversityCognitive biases and what to do about them.The art of usable foresight. Moderated by Kwela Sabine Hermanns 3D Food Printer The 3D mania is constantly growing and appearing in domains we would not have thought of. After the 3D movies and video games we will soon be able to choose to print edible creations out of a 3D Food Printer. A real existing version of such printers can be found at the French Culinary Institute in Manhattan and hopefully, within five years, amateur chefs will be able to make such an acquisition and print out their culinary creations at home. The first 3D food printer was built as part of a research project at Cornell University associating scientists and students. The group, having started the project in 2005, started experimenting food fabrication in 2007 and delivered a machine more similar to an industrial fabrication machine then a more traditional printer. With a computer acting as “the brain” attached to it the printer just needs its user to fill in its syringes with raw food; and functioning with blue print it will be able to give way to our inspiration and food desires. Investigating the possible applications of 3D printing, the 3D food printer seems to be like one of the most promising one. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 13: No more tool, no more processes, no more ruling, no more treaties.March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Foxconn replaces workers by robots Foxconn, world leader manufacturer in electronics, revealed late July a plan for replacing hundreds thousands of its workers with up to one million robots within three years. The Taiwanese owned company is China’s first private employer with 1.2 million people and one million present on Chinese soil. The public statement issued early August by the company explains its decision with wanting to move its workers up the supply chain. Unofficial reasons can be found to better justify such an announcement. Foxconn has been facing rising labor costs, high-profile strikes and, for two years now, a series of suicides by young male workers on the company’s work sites. Moving from ten thousands robots now to one million by 2013 is an alternative for the company facing labor crisis. Rising salaries and strikes are indeed the key element for Foxconn’s motivation for an increased automation of its labor force. Sandia and UNM lead effort to destroy cancers Melding nanotechnology and medical research, Sandia National Laboratories, the University of New Mexico, and the UNM Cancer Research and Treatment Center have produced an effective strategy that uses nanoparticles to blast cancerous cells with a mélange of killer drugs. “The enormous capacity of the nanoporous core, with its high surface area, combined with the improved targeting of an encapsulating lipid bilayer [called a liposome], permit a single ‘protocell’ loaded with a drug cocktail to kill a drug-resistant cancer cell,” says Sandia researcher and UNM professor Jeff Brinker, the principal investigator. “That’s a millionfold increase in efficiency over comparable methods employing liposomes alone — without nanoparticles — as drug carriers.” Aquarius Yields NASA’s First Global Map of Ocean Salinity NASA’s new Aquarius instrument has produced its first global map of the salinity of the ocean surface, providing an early glimpse of the mission’s anticipated discoveries. Aquarius, which is aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D (Satélite de Aplicaciones Científicas) observatory, is making NASA’s first space observations of ocean surface salinity variations — a key component of Earth’s climate. Salinity changes are linked to the cycling of freshwater around the planet and influence ocean circulation. “Aquarius’ salinity data are showing much higher quality than we expected to see this early in the mission,” said Aquarius Principal Investigator Gary Lagerloef of Earth & Space Research in Seattle. “Aquarius soon will allow scientists to explore the connections between global rainfall, ocean currents and climate variations.” The new map, which shows a tapestry of salinity patterns, demonstrates Aquarius’ ability to detect large-scale salinity distribution features clearly and with sharp contrast. The map is a composite of the data since Aquarius became operational on Aug. 25. The mission was launched June 10 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Aquarius/SAC-D is a collaboration between NASA and Argentina’s space agency, Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE). “Aquarius/SAC-D already is advancing our understanding of ocean surface salinity and Earth’s water cycle,” said Michael Freilich, director of NASA’s Earth Science Division at agency headquarters in Washington. “Aquarius is making continuous, consistent, global measurements of ocean salinity, including measurements from places we have never sampled before.” To produce the map, Aquarius scientists compared the early data with ocean surface salinity reference data. Although the early data contain some uncertainties, and months of additional calibration and validation work remain, scientists are impressed by the data’s quality. “Aquarius has exposed a pattern of ocean surface salinity that is rich in variability across a wide range of scales,” said Aquarius science team member Arnold Gordon, professor of oceanography at Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y., and at the university’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “This is a great moment in the history of oceanography. The first image raises many questions that oceanographers will be challenged to explain.” The map shows several well-known ocean salinity features such as higher salinity in the subtropics; higher average salinity in the Atlantic Ocean compared to the Pacific and Indian oceans; and lower salinity in rainy belts near the equator, in the northernmost Pacific Ocean and elsewhere. These features are related to large-scale patterns of rainfall and evaporation over the ocean, river outflow and ocean circulation. Aquarius will monitor how these features change and study their link to climate and weather variations. Other important regional features are evident, including a sharp contrast between the arid, high-salinity Arabian Sea west of the Indian subcontinent, and the low-salinity Bay of Bengal to the east, which is dominated by the Ganges River and south Asia monsoon rains. The data also show important smaller details, such as a larger-than-expected extent of low-salinity water associated with outflow from the Amazon River. Aquarius was built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., for NASA’s Earth Systems Science Pathfinder Program. JPL is managing Aquarius through its commissioning phase and will archive mission data. Goddard will manage Aquarius mission operations and process science data. CONAE provided the SAC-D spacecraft and the mission operations center. Recommended Book Global Catastrophic RisksBy Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Cirkovic In Global Catastrophic Risks, twenty-six leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.The book also addresses over-arching issues – policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. The book is intended for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields. The introductory chapter of the book, which gives an overview of the chapters and of some of the over-arching issues relating to Global Catastrophic Risks. Domestic slavery: An invisible modern tragedy? Human trafficking is a plague for our globalized world and has been taking modern forms in the recent decades that still go unheard of. Domestic slavery is a branch of modern slavery existing in western countries, global cities all over the world but also in poor countries in Africa within elite households of rich families. A lot of young women and young girls immigrate from the countryside to the city or from their country to, most often, western countries or westernized cities with better job opportunities and economic perspectives. A number of these young women having left home to find a job and money to send back to their relatives, often for their young kids left behind, find themselves trapped within houses and under their employers’ domination, will and cruelty. Their passports, when they have any, are taken away from them, and consequently these girls and women become household prisoners-workers constrained, threatened and in most cases beaten. Often having to work around eighteen hours a day they sleep on the kitchen or bathroom floors, receive no salaries, sweep, cook, wash without any break or the possibility to even sit and have to make do with the leftovers of the employers’ meals to eat. For a lot of these ignored modern slaves the situation still worsens for some of them, their employers going to the extent of threatening them, beating them and even torturing them. Their situation remains in most cases unknown of for years until a helpful neighbor eventually decides to contact the police and have the victim finally freed from this nightmare. But Women and young women are not the only domestic slaves. Children, most often girls, are also victims of this branch of human trafficking and modern slavery. While in Western countries and cities such as London and Paris, in the city and suburbs, they are mostly young immigrated women; in African countries particularly they often are very young country girls sent to the city and rich families for them to become another money provider for the family stayed home. These invisible tragedies, still remaining in the Pandora box of most concerned societies, happen in the United Kingdom, in France, but also in major cities like Hong Kong which detains the highest number of these household slaves, according to estimations from specialized non-governmental organizations. Organisms such as Anti-Slavery International, Children Unite, the French Comity Against Modern Slavery (CCEM, Comité Contre l’Esclavage Moderne) are voicing out the anger, anguish and suffering of all these children and young women victim of their employers’ violence, domination and cruelties. Multiple initiatives and actions such as short movies and artistic projects have been and are being made, presented and posted on the Internet for more people to become aware of this worrying situation. Still it has not been a real topic for official or other usual media in the concerned societies and makes this issue a taboo in most of these cities and countries. To enter the intimacy of household that our similar to ours and discover that such horrible things can happen in them is source of anguish and uneasiness but one has to face it. These children and women come to work and earn money to have a better life and help their families. Some send out money to their children, some hope to be able to continue their studies after, some are grateful to have escaped a dangerous village our country but they all deserve as workers to be treated with respect. No human being should be imprisoned, forced in slavery and beaten. This is a plague but like all plagues it can be fought if only more and more people becoming aware of these multiple and almost invisible victims and help them fight for their rights and dignity. China-Africa Partnership China’s trade with Africa has increased dramatically over recent years. By 2008, it surpassed the USD 100 billion mark to reach USD 114 billion. Despite the 2008 global financial crisis, China-Africa trade nevertheless totalled USD 93 billion in 2009. A new book from the African Development Bank (AfDB) analyses and details this rapid and continuing growth of trade between China and Africa. “China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development?” is a collection of studies by AfDB experts and others, which details and comments on this recent phenomenon from various aspects. The collection looks at the future of this emerging partnership; views the relationship from a post-financial crisis viewpoint; details both China’s trade with Africa and its foreign direct investment into the continent; reviews China’s manufacturing and industrialization policy in Africa; looks at China’s aid and assistance program in Africa; discusses Chinese infrastructure investments and their implications for African regional integration; and analyzes the China-Africa relationship in the context of international aid architecture. The following are summaries of each of the studies contained in “China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development?” 1. China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development? This introductory paper summarises the dual purpose of this new publication as to “analyze the economic exchange between China and Africa, and to outline policy recommendations to improve the benefits to both parties”. It notes that trade between China and Africa reached USD 100 billion for the first time in 2008, and that foreign direct investment (FDI) from China into Africa was USD 5.4 billion. By that same year, almost 10 percent of Africa’s trade was with China. China’s involvement with Africa goes beyond trade and investment and includes development assistance. At the 2009 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China pledged USD 10 billion in concessional loans to Africa. China’s trade with the African continent is currently imbalanced, concentrating on a small number of countries, given the emphasis on oil and minerals. About 70 percent of Africa’s exports to China come from Angola, South Africa, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and are heavily dominated by raw materials (e.g. oil, copper, cobalt and cotton). Some 60 percent of imports from China, largely manufactures, go to South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco. However, despite the rapid growth in trade with China, the European Union (EU) and the United States at the moment remain the largest trade and investment partners for many African economies. The EU accounts for 30 percent of Africa’s exports. The paper notes that China’s intense competition in manufacturing and its rising demand for oil highlights the risk that Africa may remain specialized in raw materials in remain vulnerable to volatile commodity prices. Chinese competition could threaten African countries that export manufactures, such as tobacco products from Benin, refined oil products from Egypt, Algeria and Kenya, wood products from Cameroon and processed food from Mauritius. On the other hand, China is supporting export diversification in Africa through the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) located in Zambia and Mauritius, with future sites being considered in North and East Africa. The paper notes China’s commitment to large infrastructure projects in Africa, but points out that the investments could be more supportive of African regional integration. The bilateral nature of China’s infrastructure investments limits such support for regional integration across countries, which is considered important for African growth and development. As in other papers in the publication, it also notes that unlike western donors, China has a different perspective on the encouragement of good governance in Africa. It states: “China considers intervention in aid recipients’ domestic politics as an infringement of sovereignty, while traditional donors emphasize that aid is more effective in countries with good governance”. However, it goes on to say “recently it appears that Chinese companies are becoming more sensitive to corporate social responsibility and are starting to focus on the ‘triple bottom line’ (profit, social, environmental)”. It brings up the possibility that China could create jobs in Africa. “Africa is not only a source of…commodities…but also a future investment destination for labour intensive manufacturing” because wages are rising faster in China than in Africa. 2. Post-crisis prospects for China-Africa relations This paper focuses on the impact of the recent global financial crisis on China and Africa, and also explores the relationship between the two regarding development challenges. The 2008 crisis had a severe impact on Africa, and by the first quarter of 2009 it was clear that economic activity would be severely depressed due to lower remittances from the African diaspora and reduced demand from rich countries. China was also affected. Chinese officials in December 2008 reported the 670,000 closures of small firms with the loss of 6.7 million jobs, for instance. However, the paper notes, “China’s substantial current account surplus, large international reserves and strong fiscal position provided ample scope for measures to compensate for the fall in external demand”, and clear signs of recovery were evident by 2009. China’s economy grew by 8.9 percent in 2009, retail sales rose by 16.9 percent and FDI grew by 30 percent. This recovery was a boon to global markets, particularly to Africa. The global crisis did not appear to dent China’s enthusiasm for investing in Africa. The authors note that “surveys undertaken in early 2009 in Beijing indicate that entrepreneurs would continue to invest in, and trade more, with Africa”. In fact, their study found that “Chinese companies exporting to Europe and America have adjusted rapidly to the slowdown in these markets by finding new markets, such as in Africa”. On development, the paper notes that “China is sometimes referred to as an emerging development partner, although the country has had an aid program since the 1950s”. China’s assistance is mainly allocated, it says, to “all weather friends”, such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Mali and Tanzania. Due to different definitions of aid, it is hard to quantify China’s development assistance, say the authors. Credit and aid data are fragmented over more than 20 line ministries, public banks and other agencies, and it includes a wide range of activities, including grants, scholarships and infrastructure projects. 3. China’s trade and FDI in Africa The author of this paper notes that despite recent dramatic growth “Africa remains a marginal trading partner compared to China’s trade with other regions”. China-Africa trade has grown rapidly because “the growth of foreign trade and investment over the past decade has been guided by the desire to secure energy resources, leading to increased relations with Australia, Latin America and Africa”. Even so, “Africa’s share of China’s total exports and imports – despite recent increases – remains less than 4 percent, and is even smaller for manufactured goods. Trade with China is somewhat more important for Africa, representing almost 10 per cent of exports and imports” China’s outward FDI to Africa is dominated by a few resource-rich countries, plus South Africa. Between 2003 and 2007, more than half of Chinese FDI into Africa was absorbed by just three countries – Nigeria (20.2 percent), South Africa (19.8 percent) and Sudan (12.3 percent). In fact, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp is the leading foreign investor in Sudan.Nigeria’s share is set to rise significantly. China is negotiating the acquisition of 16.7 percent of Nigeria’s oil reserves. China’s interest in African oil stems from its wish to diversify supply away from Middle Eastern countries to more stable African countries. Also, among sub-Saharan countries, only Nigeria is a member of OPEC. However, the author points out the future FDI will diversify and focus more on the private sector and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in sectors such as telecommunications, business services and manufactured goods. China is also using some African countries as a platform for re-exports. 4. China’s manufacturing and industrialization in AfricaThe authors of this paper note that Africa’s economic growth has been predicated on higher commodity prices while diversification into manufactured production has been limited. They look into why this is so, what sort of manufactured goods that African countries should be producing for successful export, and China’s role in that process. A key question is whether “China’s rapid growth in manufacturing combined with Africa’s exports of natural resources is effectively blocking off Africa’s ability to follow a manufacturing-led growth path”.The production of manufactures (value added as a share of GDP) in Africa remained constant between 1995 and 2004, and is far below the average of developing countries elsewhere. Manufactures accounted for only 10.9 percent of the GDP of the 20 largest African economies in 2006 – 9.6 percent if South Africa is excluded. In 2004, a study found that manufactured exports equalled only six percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP – not much more than half of the 11 percent average for all low income countries. In order to improve this situation, one study suggests that Africa should follow a “land-abundant development path similar to the United States rather than the land-scarce Asian economies”, pointing the way to adding value to the continent’s natural resources through manufacturing. The authors particularly highlight apparel as an opportunity. “It can be expected that the labour-intensive apparel sector would play an important role in Africa’s manufactured exports, given the continent’s abundant low-skilled labour and preferential access to the United States and the European Union”. They note that “production of wearing apparel is being transferred rapidly to developing countries”. They accounted for only 28.2 percent of global production in 1995, but 57.5 percent in 2006. Two-thirds of that change took place between 2002 and 2006. They observe that “.the clothing sector is the only manufacturing sector in Africa that displays international competitiveness” However, African countries need to keep an eye on costs. For instance, “total cost of a pair of pants made in China is about $1 while a similar product produced in South Africa costs ten times as much”. On trade with China, the authors note that while Africa ranked only 7th as an export destination and 8th as a source of imports in 2008, “China’s trade with Africa is expanding more rapidly than with most other trade partners”. Between 1995 and 2008, China’s exports to Africa rose by 23 percent per year, faster than exports to Europe, the United States or ASEAN countries. The authors note the lack of African success in manufacturing compared to Asia. “One problem is that Africa’s economic policies, governance and institutions have been far weaker than in many of the successful Asian economies”. They go on to make recommendations for the future. “Africa needs to strengthen “the policy umbrella”, through more stable macroeconomic policies, more dependable provision of government services, and expanded infrastructure investments, including support for regional trade (e.g. improved roads and border post management)”. 5. China’s engagement and aid effectiveness in AfricaIn this paper, the author acknowledges that traditionally China has focussed its assistance on countries with which it has good political relations and countries with oil and mineral resources. However, he notes that “recent trends have seen some broadening of Chinese assistance”. He also reports that there has been some expansion of investment outside primary industries. One study notes that there has been “significant investments in non-primary industries such as clothing, the food industry, transport, building, tourism, power plants and telecommunications”. In recent years, the author concludes, “China’s engagement with Africa has expanded to cover most countries on the continent and beyond natural resources to light manufacturing and services”.It also finds that “Chinese enterprises have played a positive role through transferring technology”. As a result, “trade with China could contribute to the product and geographical diversification of African exports”. On FDI, the author points out, as other papers in the publication do, that Chinese FDI is relatively insignificant. It was 1.1 percent of all FDI into Africa in 2007. However, that compares to only 0.2 percent in 2003, and “China’s FDI to Africa is growing much more rapidly than FDI from other countries”. On the level of development assistance from China to Africa, once again because of definitions, it is hard to estimate. However, the paper quotes a study suggesting that Chinas aid flows substantially exceeded the USD 731 million reported by official sources. It may have reached USD 8.1 billion. Another study estimates that China’s overseas development assistance to sub-Saharan Africa averaged between USD 1 billion and USD 1.5 billion annually during 2004 and 2005. The estimates suggest that “Chinese aid to Africa is growing rapidly, but remains small compared to assistance from OECD/DAC members” Chinese aid differs from western aid in that it is usually tied. “Development assistance is usually granted in kind, while financial assistance is given to finance contracts that are implemented by Chinese companies”. 6. China’s Infrastructure Investments and African IntegrationIn this paper, the authors emphasize the importance of regional, integration if Africa is to reap the benefits of economies of scale, access to globalized markets and to strengthen its position in international negotiations. It also discusses the establishment of a core group of African countries with FOCAC to promote regional integration. Such a group could pursue initiatives such as improving access to the Chinese market and advancing regional infrastructure projects. In the longer term, it could establish a coordinated approach to debt relief and the untying of development assistance. It emphasizes the importance of improved transport infrastructure and integration, particularly for Africa’s land-locked countries. Transport costs impede trade growth for those countries. For instance, transporting a container between Japan and Abidjan costs USD 1,500, but the cost to a land-locked country is double. It also underlines the importance of China trading and dealing with Africa’s various regional trading and economic groupings such as ECOWAS, COMESA and SADC, and notes that such regional trade has been growing over recent years. Chinese investment in infrastructure in Africa has remained stable at about USD 5 billion a year. Recent examples of projects include roads and bridges in the DRC, railways in Angola, and power stations in Zambia. Also, China is building high-voltage power transmission lines to interconnect countries in southern Africa, strengthening regional integration. In the rail sector, China’s largest deals include the construction of mass transit systems in Nigeria, and the construction of new lines linked to mining developments in Gabon and Mauritania. The largest ICT project with Chinese involvement is the rollout of a national communications network in Ethiopia. China has also made moves into the African financial sector. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has acquired 20 percent of South Africa’s Standard Bank for USD 5.6 billion, and the China Construction Bank has entered into a strategic partnership with FirstRand of South Africa. 7. China, Africa and the International Aid ArchitectureThis paper looks into the implications of China’s rising prominence in aid and assistance for the practices that govern the international aid architecture. As in other papers, it notes that while China is often called an “emerging donor”, it has had an aid program since the 1950s. Egypt was the first recipient of Chinese aid in 1956. Now, every country in Africa, apart from Swaziland, has received some aid from China. During the mid-1970s, China had aid programmes in more African countries than the United States did. The paper concludes that China will continue in its aid and assistance program. “The evidence suggests that Chinese finance will be a significant, continuing source of capital for African countries. In 2009, the Chinese pledged to commit USD 10 billion in new preferential loans (a mix of export credits and concessional aid loans) to Africa by 2012. Futurist Portrait: David Brian Johnson David Brian Johnson, futurist at Intel Corporation: “What we do at Intel is that we literally make the future.” and “Futurism isn’t really about prediction but about creating concepts for the future.” Graduate student of the New School University (NY), David Brian Johnson first worked as an executive producer on interactive television projects for a number of companies such as British Airways and the Discovery Channel, in Europe and the United States. Now chief engineer and Consumer Experience Architect at Intel Corporation his activity is centered on future casting for the development of future Intel products. He himself defines future casting as a “process for developing a vision for the future” which involves various inputs such as technology, global trends study, social sciences research and even science fiction. Within Intel, his late focus has more specifically been on the research and development of smart TVs. David exercises numerous other activities outside his important position at Intel. Author of multiple scientific papers and more popular literature about technology, he has written several science-fiction books such as Fake Plastic Love and the forthcoming This is Planet Earth. His last book Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computing and Devices we Love, published in 2010, has had an important impact on the public, accurate mirror and analysis on how to view the technology surrounding us in everyday life.3 Intel’s Futurist Brian David Johnson: Don’t Let The Future Happen To You! Agenda November 3, 2011the future of the FutureUtopia versus The End Of The World As We Know ItLocation: Volkskrantgebouw, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam January, 2012 February 23, 2012the future of Social BiomimicryWhat we can learn from natureLocation: Amsterdam March 29, 2012the future of LanguagesLocation: Amsterdam April 2012the future of Germany May 2012the future of Taxes June 2012the future of Urban Energy The Breakfast Club will soon announce the next events! Credentials Felix Bopp, Editor-in-ChiefRaphaelle Beguinel, Assistant Editor

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Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2004, Issue 37

Content Helen Shaw: Regulating broadcasting – for citizens or consumers?News about the FutureSummit HighlightsSummit for the FutureRecommended BookThe European Services ForumToyota i-unit Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Helen Shaw: Regulating broadcasting – for citizens or consumers? Helen Shaw, Managing Director, Athena Media Ltd Regulating broadcasting – for citizens or consumers? The way the two words run together, citizens and consumers, one can often think they are the same people . OFCOM, the new integrated regulator in the UK defines itself as serving the interests of the ‘citizen-consumer’ – a new Anglo-Saxon kenning literally fusing the two together. But the interests of citizens and consumers are not the same and can often be in conflict – not just in broadcasting and communications regulation – but in other parts of civic life. Here in Ireland, for example, we introduced a tax on plastic bags some years ago, a tax both consumers and shopping centres resisted, in their interests, but which has served the interests of citizens and civic society by rapidly removing plastic litter and reducing our consumption of plastic, non-recyclable bags. In the broadcasting sphere the Irish regulator, the Broadcasting Commission of Ireland (BCI), which has responsibility for the regulation of broadcasting advertisement code, has spent much of the year in detailed consultation on a new children’s advertisement code which will control advertisement aimed at children under 18 years. While the code has raised the conflicting issues of children as consumers and citizens it has also flagged the difficulties for all of us in Europe attempting to creating content regulation in an individual state. Ireland has one of the highest European trans-national TV penetration rate with over 80% of consumers able to view a wide range of Irish, UK and international channels and nearly half the TV audience has digital satellite or cable television. Yet content regulation, whether for programmes or advertisement, is nationally based and affects only the terrestrial offerings. The Irish TV case highlights the need for greater pan-European regulation codes which create minimum standards across Europe and which provides a European context for the debate for short term consumer demands and long term citizen interests and rights. For small European nations like Ireland, with a population of just 4 million in the Republic, the sea of global choices is welcome but can equally wash out the national cultural needs and interests of the place and people. Ireland has two languages, Irish and English, and an increasing challenge for broadcasting regulation here is not just to serve the lowest common denominator but to take a long term view of how regulation can encourage quality home produced programming which reflects national heritage, culture and language and which provides a contemporary debate for a modern thriving economic and political state. In Ireland a new integrated regulator, the Broadcasting Authority of Ireland, is about to be created merging the regulatory role of the BCI and the RTE Authority which governs the public broadcasting company, RTE. This is ironically a stage beyond OFCOM, which has only minor regulatory powers relating to the BBC which is still regulated by the Board of Governors. The proposed BAI in Ireland is an opportunity to develop a new template for broadcasting regulation but it needs debate and time and most importantly of all it needs consolidating legislation creating an adequate legal and regulatory framework for the future. One of the key issues may be that two years down the road since it was proposed it is already out of dated. A body called the Broadcasting Authority of anywhere is missing the point that Broadcasting is now only an aspect of the future of both content production and delivery.  The new body needs to be a Media Authority which as in Australia combines both broadcasting and the internet reflecting that now and in the future television is as likely to be delivered over mobile new media platforms as through a TV box in the living room and reflecting that a debate over citizens and consumers needs to see the holistic nature of content whether programming or advertisement across all platforms  Helen Shaw, Managing Director, Athena Media Ltd, Irelandspeaks at our Summit for the Future 2005 about the future of Media & Entertainment News about the Future Solar hydrogen – energy of the future A team of Australian scientists predicts that a revolutionary new way to harness the power of the sun to extract clean and almost unlimited energy supplies from water will be a reality within seven years. Using special titanium oxide ceramics that harvest sunlight and split water to produce hydrogen fuel, the researchers say it will then be a simple engineering exercise to make an energy-harvesting device with no moving parts and emitting no greenhouse gases or pollutants. It would be the cheapest, cleanest and most abundant energy source ever developed: the main by-products would be oxygen and water. Rooftop panels placed on 1.6 million houses, for example, could supply Australia’s entire energy needs. “This is potentially huge, with a market the size of all the existing markets for coal, oil and gas combined,” says Professor Janusz Nowotny, who with Professor Chris Sorrell is leading a solar hydrogen research project at the University of NSW Centre for Materials and Energy Conversion. The team is thought to be the most advanced in developing the cheap, light-sensitive materials that will be the basis of the technology. “Based on our research results, we know we are on the right track and with the right support we now estimate that we can deliver a new material within seven years,” says Nowotny. 1.6 million individual households equipped with 10m x 10m solar hydrogen panels would meet all of Australia’s energy needs. Hydrogen generated from water using solar energy constitutes a clean source of energy as neither its production nor its combustion process produces greenhouse or pollutant gases. Hydrogen produced by existing conventional methods emits carbon dioxide at the production stage. When this technology matures it would allow Australia to be a leader in solar technology, becoming part of an OPEC of the future. Australia is ideally placed to commercialise this technology as it has abundant sunlight. This technology ultimately will reduce Australia’s total reliance on coal, gasoline and natural gas, providing energy security. Titanium dioxide is plentiful and cheap. Titania ceramics also have many other applications, including water purification, anti-viral and bacteriacidal coatings on hospital clothing and surfaces, self-cleaning glasses, and anti-pollution surfaces on buildings and roads. As sources of fossil fuels disappear, the race is on to be the world’s leading provider of hydrogen. The US Government recently committed an extra US$1.2 billion to hydrogen research. Japan has launched a 20-year research program that is sending satellites into space in the hope that it can harvest solar energy and send it back to the earth by laser onto cells of titania (TiO2). The European Commission has instituted an intense R&D program in pursuit of solar hydrogen. Iceland aims to be the world’s first hydrogen economy. Telecom in the Trillions: Forecasting for 2007 High-speed access will be the principal driver of international equipment spending in the next four years, aided by an improved economic environment and rising profits, according to the Telecommunications Industry Association’s (TIA) 2004 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. TIA expects spending on telecommunications equipment to increase by 5.4% in 2004 and then to grow at high single-digit rates through 2007. Equipment spending in Canada and Mexico, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia/Pacific will expand an estimated 7.4% CAGR, rising from $260.1 billion in 2004 to $328.1 billion in 2007. Overall spending on telecom in the five regions will rise to more than $2.0 trillion in 2007, fueled by the growth in wireless services and support services. “We expect the profile of international broadband growth over the next four years to match that of wireless subscribers achieved over the 1998-2002 period. As the worldwide broadband market expands, we will see an increased need for infrastructure to support the added traffic that will in turn revitalize the network infrastructure equipment market,” said TIA President Matthew J. Flanagan. The introduction of third-generation services over the next four years will keep the wireless market growing at double-digit rates even as penetration slows. By 2007, wireless will comprise 54% of total transport services. The landline market will continue to grow at single-digit rates as the migration from wireline to wireless continues. The market will increase from $440.6 billion in 2004 to $484.2 billion in 2007. The transport services market as a whole will expand from $828.0 billion in 2004 to $1.1 trillion, an 8.8% CAGR increase. The emergence of Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) using the 802.11 family of standards will also stimulate the equipment market. There were 8,600 hot spots outside the U.S. in 2003, up from 3,600 in 2002. The study predicts the international hot spot count to increase to 23,000 in 2004 and to grow to 145,000 by 2007. The demand for equipment generates a demand for services to support that equipment. Spending on basic service and support, professional services, and depot repair and logistics for both enterprise and network equipment in Europe, Latin American and Asia/Pacific totaled $421.8 billion in 2004. Europe is expected to be the largest region in support services spending, reaching $316.3 billion in 2007. Summit Highlights Glen Hiemstra and Tom Lambert are two of our outstanding keynote speakers:Opening Event. You can attent the Opening Event of the Summit for the Future without participating throughout the whole Summit.  Glen HiemstraFuturist.com, USALeading Futurist from Seattle, Washington Lessons from the Future: Creating the Knowledge Society “Change the form of information, the speed of information transmission, and the level of access to both creating and consuming information, and you will change society. In his keynote to the Summit for the Future 2005, Glen Hiemstra, Founder of Futurist.com and professional futurist from Seattle, Washington, will examine the dynamics creating a new kind of society. This will be an insightful exploration of the powerful and sometimes surprising dynamics taking us through a techno-social-economic revolution. The most potent technology developments underlying this revolution go beyond information technologies and encompass nanotechnology and the coming energy transformation. The techno-social-economic revolution, underway for perhaps thirty years and now more than half-way finished, is changing the basic pillars by which we organize life, including the job, the home, retirement, government, and education. Along the way old orders die and new orders emerge, and through this process old Europe may emerge renewed while the new world, America, may struggle to maintain leadership. At the same time, resistance to the future emerges and plays out on the global stage. The entire presentation is framed in the context of three questions about the future, what is probable, what is possible, and what is preferred.”  Tom LambertChief Executive, Centre for Consulting Excellence,Professor of Consultancy, Rushmore University, Member of the Club of Amsterdam Advisory BoardUK/USARecently a list of “The Obvious Experts” in the field of consulting, training and conference speaking was published in the United States. Tom Lambert was the sole European listed. This speaks volumes for his global reputation. Winning the Future “Asia is making massive strides and cannot be ignored – let me concentrate on the tiger rather than the cubs. The questions, risks and challenges that we face are very real. Perhaps we should return to the attitudes and courage of our not too distant ancestors that understood that nothing worth doing is without risk and, knowing the risks, opened the known and newly discovered world to trade. The countries of Europe have an entrepreneurial past second to none. With the clearest understanding that we can develop in a volatile situation perhaps we can regain some of the spirit of our forebears. Given that we must start somewhere – let us look at the challenges that may face us in China and determine if we have the sheer guts that it will take to deal with them.” Summit for the Future 2005 Club of Amsterdam Summit for the Future 2005 Date: January 26-28, 2005Location: HES Amsterdam School for Business, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsRegistration: If you like thinking “out of the box”, this Club of Amsterdam Summit may prove to be the best conference of 2005.  Trade / Service Industry Energy Healthcare Media & Entertainment Science & Technology Summit for the Future 2005 Recommended Book Bioethics in a European Perspectiveby H. Ten Have,  Bert Gordijn In this book, developed by a group of collaborating scholars in bioethics from different European countries, an overview is given of the most salient themes in present-day bioethics. The themes are discussed in order to enable the reader to have an in-depth overview of the state of the art in bioethics. Introductory chapters will guide the reader through the relevant dimensions of a particular area, while subsequent case discussions will help the reader to apply the ethical theories to specific clinical problems and health policy queries. The book focuses on perspectives typical for the European context. This highlights not only particular bioethical themes such as social justice, choices in health care, and health policy (e.g., in post-communist countries), it also emphasizes specific approaches in ethical theory, in relation to Continental philosophies such as phenomenology and hermeneutics. Because of its articulation of what is typical for the European health care setting as well as for bioethical debate, this book is unique in comparison to existing textbooks in bioethics. The book is an introductory textbook acquainting the reader with the major issues in present-day health care as well as the various theoretical and practical approaches to clarify these issues.  Bert Gordijn, Secretary of the European Society for Philosophy of Medicine and HealthcareClinical Ethicist, Assistant Professor of Medical Ethics, University Medical Centre Nijmegen, Department of Ethics, Philosophy and History of Medicine Philosopher Healthcare Summit for the Future The European Services Forum The European Services Forum The European Services Forum is an organisation representing service industries across the European Community. The membership comprises more than thirty European trade federations and more than forty international companies based in countries which are members of the European Community. World trade in commercial services accounts for 20% of world exports, but services account for 60% of annual flows of foreign direct investment. Domestically, the service sector dominates most developed economies in the world and is the largest sector in the economies of the developing world. The European Services Forum, therefore, strongly supports and encourages the movement to liberalise service markets throughout the world and to remove both trade and investment barriers. The ESF recognises that there is strong evidence to support the view that liberalising service industries such as telecommunications, financial services and power distribution brings benefits to both the developed and developing world. However, the ESF also believes that liberalisation needs to be accompanied by a regulatory infrastructure which encourages transparency, competition and fairness. The liberalisation process should be a managed process, which takes into account the social and cultural background of the liberalising country. The European Union is the world’s largest exporter of commercial services accounting for 26% of total global services transactions and for more than 40% in terms of balance of payments. The European Union is also the world’s largest importer of commercial services. European service industries therefore have a key interest in playing a major part in the new round of multilateral negotiations. The ESF supports a comprehensive round of negotiations because it believes that countries have different priorities in the WTO negotiations and therefore there will not be a wide agreement without a comprehensive round.  Pascal Kerneis, Managing Director, European Services Forum speaks at the Summit for the Future 2005  about the future of Trade / Service Industry Toyota i-unit Toyota i-unit The “i-unit” creates a seamless transformation between vehicle and human movement, minimizing occupied space and energy consumption with its lightweight and ultra compact size. The i-unit has a compact size enabling the passenger to move among other people in an upright position in low speed mode, and a low center of gravity that ensures stable handling when the vehicles reclines in high speed mode. Drive Controller: Drive-by-wire technology and intuitive handling enable the passenger to maneuver on-the-spot turns and drive at high speed at will. IT Controller: A driver support information system uses sound, light and vibration to facilitate interactive communication. The driver support system features Intelligent Transport System (ITS) technology, which Toyota hopes to utilize for an accident-free society. The system permits efficient and safe autopilot driving in specially equipped lanes. A personalized recognition system can provide information and music, and body color can be customized, according to the individual’s preferences and emotions. The body is built using environmentally friendly plant-based materials such as kenaf. Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events January 26-28, 2005 Summit for the Future 2005 .Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 October 27, 2004 the future of ICT .November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries .February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry .March 30, 2005 the future of Water .April 27, 2005 the future of Branding .June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics .June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy  . Partners of the Summit for the Future

Club of Amsterdam Journal November 2004, Issue 36

Content Jacques van der Gaag about the future of Developing CountriesNews about the Futureabout the future of Developing Countries Summit for the Future Recommended Book Global Development Learning Network Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Jacques van der Gaag about the future of Developing Countries Prof.dr. Jacques van der GaagDean, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam The Millennium Development Goals Who’s kidding who?The global development community, big international players like UNDP and the World bank, but also bi-lateral donor agencies, large NGO’s and others, have reached agreement about a set of development goals that should be reached by the year 2015. The first, and best known, of these goals is the reduction of world poverty by 50%. To state this more precisely, the international head count ratio, i.e. the percentage of people living on $ 1,- per day or less, is supposed to be cut in half by 2015. In 1981, the global headcount ration was 40.4%. This was reduced to 27.9% by 1990, and to 21.1% in 2001. A steady and impressive decline in poverty. If this trend continues, the best available prognoses show that then, by 2015, the poverty rate will be down to 15.0%. At first sight, this is a development success story. But a closer look may lead to another view: Virtually all the progress is due to the impressive growth performance, during the past two decades, of China. More recently, another populous country, India, has also registered impressive growth. Add these two countries together, and take into account their huge populations, and most of the downward trend is explained. For Latin America and the Middle East, current projections show hardly any poverty decline, and for Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, the trend is upwards! Still, strictly speaking, and ignoring interregional variation, the first Millennium Development goal will be reached in 2015, if current trends continue. Unfortunately, this cannot be said of the other seven MDG’s. The situation for MDG #6 is especially dramatic. This goal calls for “combating HIV/AIDS and malaria”. While not very specific, the current situation already makes it possible that, most likely, the HIV/AIDS situation in the world will be worse in 2015, rather than better. And the same is likely to be true for malaria. For HIV/AIDS the picture is currently as follows: almost 40 million people are infected, three million people died in 2003 alone and five million additional people get infected every year. Still, according to their own website, the Global Fund hopes that within five years, 1.6 million people will be treated for AIDS. But in five years time 25 million more people will be infected! Similarly, the WHO’s so-called 3×5 initiative, which calls for three million people to be treated in 2005, is failing: the current count is 450,000 (June 2004). Clearly, the gap between what needs to be done and what is being achieved is growing rapidly. For malaria, the picture is different, but the conclusion is more or less the same: progress is hard to find and much too slow for what is needed. A new problem there is that the standard drug, chloroquine is no longer effective. The new drug of choice, artemisinin, is, unfortunately too expensive for most of the poor who suffer from malaria, if it is available at all. What is needed is a global effort to massively produce the new drug and put it on the market at highly subsidized prices. A new study estimates that, annually, the cost of such a subsidy would amount to between 300 and 500 million US $. Just a fraction of the costs of HIV/AIDS treatment, but still a substantial amount. However, the old drugs were cheap, preventive measures such as bed nets are relatively cheap, and all are very cost effective. Still, every two minutes, two children die in Africa alone, from malaria. It is hard to believe that, even if the change to the new drug can, with a global effort, be achieved, that alone will be enough to make progress in the fight against the major killer. The other MDG’s are in the area of education, maternal health, child health and some broader area’s (such as the environment). True, regional progress can be expected for some of those, but in general the expectation is that none of the goals will be reached as stated. That is a sad state of affairs. The first goal will be reached, but only if China and India continue on their aggressive economic growth paths, and all the other targets will be missed. One may wonder what the point is of setting goals for the world, and then failing to reach them. One would expect, given these bleak projections, that there would be a global outcry and a massive effort to improve the situation. But a few years after declaring these MDG’s, the world has moved on the other things, like the war on terror. The war effort in Iraq, thus far, costs US $ 300 billion, and the Paris Club just took US$ 30 billion of Iraqy debts of the books (an amount that can increase to 90 billion). Finding money for goals that the global powers do believe in, does not seem to be the problem. But if we, collectively, do believe so little in those MDG’s that we seem to be unable to generate the necessary resources to reach them, who are we kidding but ourselves? Prof.dr. Jacques van der GaagDean, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam is our moderator at the Club of Amsterdam evening about the future of Developing Countries, Tuesday, November 30, 2004 News about the Future Stem Cells and Regenerative Medicineby National Academy of Sciences Scientists hope that by growing stem cells in laboratories they can generate specific tissues, such as heart, lung, or kidney tissue, which could then help repair damaged and diseased organs or provide alternatives to organ transplants. Many of the illnesses cited as potential targets of stem cell therapy – such as diabetes, heart disease, spinal cord injury, and Parkinson’s disease – have few or no treatment options, so millions of Americans are looking for cures. The ability to take tissue derived from stem cells and transplant it into the human body to restore lost function may be a long way off, but some studies involving animals have been encouraging. For example, transplanted embryonic stem cells from mice have restored some insulin regulation ability in mice with diabetes, relieved symptoms of Parkinson’s disease in rodents, and partially restored neural function in animals with spinal cord injuries. Landmark report could influence the future of medicines in Europe and the worldPriority Medicines for Europe and the World, commissioned by the Dutch Government as current president of the European Union (EU), identifies a priority list of medicines for Europe and the rest of the world, taking into account Europe’s ageing population, the increasing burden of non-communicable illnesses in developing countries and diseases which persist in spite of the availability of effective treatments. The report looks at the gaps in research and innovation for these medicines and provides specific policy recommendations on creating incentives and closing those gaps. “This report identifies health gaps and potential solutions. It is particularly timely for a continent where an ageing population faces increasing health problems, and for a world where old and new threats no longer respect national borders,” said Dr. Lee Jong-wook, Director-General of WHO. about the future of Developing Countries It Works: Rural Health-Care Techby Wired With degrees in medicine and engineering, Vikram Kumar could have plenty of lucrative opportunities. Instead, he’s opted for a venture with dicey moneymaking prospects. The chief customers of Dimagi, his two-year-old startup, are nonprofit health agencies in developing countries. With software co-developed by Dimagi, nurses in India manage information collected in the field on more than 70,000 patients. And in rural South Africa, outreach workers use software that Dimagi helped develop to distribute HIV test results in remote settings while ensuring confidentiality. World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work For Poor People Broad improvements in human welfare will not occur unless poor people receive wider access to affordable, better quality services in health, education, water, sanitation, and electricity. Without such improvements in services, freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy – two of the most important ways poor people can escape poverty – will remain elusive to many. The World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People says that too often, key services fail poor people – in access, in quantity, in quality. This imperils a set of development targets known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which call for a halving of the global incidence of poverty, and broad improvements in human development by 2015. Summit for the Future 2005: Healthcare Club of Amsterdam Summit for the Future – Visions & Strategies for 2020 Date: January 26-28, 2005Location: HES Amsterdam School for Business, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Is Globalisation the single biggest factor affecting all our visions and strategies for 2020? Is it a threat to the fabric of society – or are those who do not join the people we should be keeping an eye on? Are all innovation and production gradually shifting to the BRICK countries by 2020 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Korea)? Will Europe simply turn into the world’s retirement home? Or will the current knowledge centres in UK and The Netherlands switch to Ireland, Sweden, Finland and Australia? How can we change Brain Drain into Brain Gain – or perhaps Brain Circulation is a better phrase? At the end of January 2005, we’re putting the pick of the strategic thinkers together for our international “Summit of the Future”. It will be a creative clash of inspiration. We will debate the significance of global trends in the open plenary sessions – followed by workshops in five key knowledge streams.  Trade / Service Industry Energy Healthcare Media & Entertainment Science & Technology  Summit for the Future 2005 –see: https://clubofamsterdam.com/2020/10/27/summit-for-the-future-2005/ Recommended Book The World Ahead: Our Future in the Makingby Federico Mayor, Jerome Binde This book looks at the major challenges of the future. Packed with the latest information and scientific understanding, it traverses a rich tapestry of crucial issues, threats and choices confronting humanity and proposes a new start based on four broad contracts: social natural, cultural and ethical. In a world where problems are taking on increasingly global dimensions, we must come up with global solutions. We need to turn a culture of violence into a culture of peace. The choice is stark: either a 21st century with a human face or the grimacing mask of a ‘Brave New World’. Global Development Learning Network Global Development Learning Network The Global Development Learning Network uses distance learning technologies and methods to facilitate interactive, cost-effective learning and knowledge-sharing for sustainable development and poverty reduction. GDLN Centers around the world offer a unique set of services to development practitioners. The Global Development Learning Network (GDLN) is a worldwide partnership of distance learning centers (GDLN Centers) and other public, private, and non-governmental organizations committed to development learning and development dialogue for lasting poverty reduction. Offering a unique combination of distance learning technologies and methods, GDLN facilitates timely and cost-effective knowledge sharing, consultation, coordination, and training. Through GDLN, individuals, groups, and organizations design and deliver courses, seminars, and other activities that cover the full range of development issues. GDLN Centers around the world have facilities for videoconferencing, web-based learning, and face-to-face interaction and also offer logistical support and facilitation services. These provide cost-effective, fast, and high-impact alternatives to traditional meetings and courses, enabling people around the world to connect with each other without having to travel. Activities do not need to be delivered in a concentrated period of time because people can continue working even as they participate in events. This gives them time and flexibility to read background materials; prepare real assignments related to their actual work; and interact with local peers for an enhanced learning experience. Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events January 26-28, 2005 Summit for the Future 2005 Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 October 27, 2004 the future of ICT November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry March 30, 2005 the future of Water April 27, 2005 the future of Branding June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy  .  Partners of the Summit for the Future