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Club of Amsterdam Journal, November 2018, Issue 210
Content Organic farming with gene editing: An oxymoron or a tool for sustainable agriculture? by Rebecca Mackelprang Modern bioenergy leads the growth of all renewables to 2023, according to latest IEA market forecast The Future Now Show : CHANGE is led by Disabled People with Philipa Bragman hosted by Annie Moon Village tests Future News about the Future: AI systems shed light on root cause of religious conflict / Elements of success: Urban transportation systems of 24 global cities The Sustainable City in Dubai Recommended Book: Silicon States by Lucie Greene Cycling Industries Europe by Patrick Crehan Radical Cities Futurist Portrait: Amy Webb Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show featuring Be the Difference with Philipa Bragman hosted by Annie Moon“Most people with learning disabilities live in a world where decisions that affect them are made by non-learning disabled people. We believe people with learning disabilities are the experts on the changes they need to lead a good quality of life and to get equal access to employment, healthcare, housing, community involvement and information they can understand. CHANGE is built on this belief. The majority of our Board of Trustees are Disabled People, including people with learning disabilities.” Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman Organic farming with gene editing: An oxymoron or a tool for sustainable agriculture? Many farmers cultivating organic crops believe that genetically modified crops pose threats to human health. mythja/Shutterstock.com By Rebecca Mackelprang, Postdoctoral Scholar, University of California, Berkeley, USA A University of California, Berkeley professor stands at the front of the room, delivering her invited talk about the potential of genetic engineering. Her audience, full of organic farming advocates, listens uneasily. She notices a man get up from his seat and move toward the front of the room. Confused, the speaker pauses mid-sentence as she watches him bend over, reach for the power cord, and unplug the projector. The room darkens and silence falls. So much for listening to the ideas of others. Many organic advocates claim that genetically engineered crops are harmful to human health, the environment, and the farmers who work with them. Biotechnology advocates fire back that genetically engineered crops are safe, reduce insecticide use, and allow farmers in developing countries to produce enough food to feed themselves and their families. Now, sides are being chosen about whether the new gene editing technology, CRISPR, is really just “GMO 2.0” or a helpful new tool to speed up the plant breeding process. In July, the European Union’s Court of Justice ruled that crops made with CRISPR will be classified as genetically engineered. In the United States, meanwhile, the regulatory system is drawing distinctions between genetic engineering and specific uses of genome editing. For many, perception of genetically modified foods has changed little from those of this protester dressed as a genetically altered ‘Killer Tomato’ marching through downtown San Diego, June 24, 2001. Joe Cavaretta/AP Photo I am a plant molecular biologist and appreciate the awesome potential of both CRISPR and genetic engineering technologies. But I don’t believe that pits me against the goals of organic agriculture. In fact, biotechnology can help meet these goals. And while rehashing the arguments about genetic engineering seems counterproductive, genome editing may draw both sides to the table for a healthy conversation. To understand why, it’s worth digging into the differences between genome editing with CRISPR and genetic engineering. What’s the difference between genetic engineering, CRISPR and mutation breeding? Opponents argue that CRISPR is a sneaky way to trick the public into eating genetically engineered foods. It is tempting to toss CRISPR and genetic engineering into the same bucket. But even “genetic engineering” and “CRISPR” are too broad to convey what is happening on the genetic level, so let’s look closer. In one type of genetic engineering, a gene from an unrelated organism can be introduced into a plant’s genome. For example, much of the eggplant grown in Bangladesh incorporates a gene from a common bacterium. This gene makes a protein called Bt that is harmful to insects. By putting that gene inside the eggplant’s DNA, the plant itself becomes lethal to eggplant-eating insects and decreases the need for insecticides. Bt is safe for humans. It’s like how chocolate makes dogs sick, but doesn’t affect us. Another type of genetic engineering can move a gene from one variety of a plant species into another variety of that same species. For example, researchers identified a gene in wild apple trees that makes them resistant to fire blight.They moved that gene into the “Gala Galaxy” apple to make it resistant to disease. However, this new apple variety has not been commercialized. Scientists are unable to direct where in the genome a gene is inserted with traditional genetic engineering, although they use DNA sequencing to identify the location after the fact. In contrast, CRISPR is a tool of precision. Just like using the “find” function in a word processor to quickly jump to a word or phrase, the CRISPR molecular machinery finds a specific spot in the genome. It cuts both strands of DNA at that location. Because cut DNA is problematic for the cell, it quickly deploys a repair team to mend the break. There are two pathways for repairing the DNA. In one, which I call “CRISPR for modification,” a new gene can be inserted to link the cut ends together, like pasting a new sentence into a word processor. In “CRISPR for mutation,” the cell’s repair team tries to glue the cut DNA strands back together again. Scientists can direct this repair team to change a few DNA units, or base pairs (A’s, T’s, C’s and G’s), at the site that was cut, creating a small DNA change called a mutation. This technique can be used to tweak the gene’s behavior inside the plant. It can also be used to silence genes inside the plant that, for example, are detrimental to plant survival, like a gene that increases susceptibility to fungal infections. In genetic engineering, a new gene is added to a random location in a plant’s genome. CRISPR for modification also allows a new gene to be added to a plant, but targets the new gene to a specific location. CRISPR for mutation does not add new DNA. Rather, it makes a small DNA change at a precise location. Mutation breeding uses chemicals or radiation (lightning bolts) to induce several small mutations in the genomes of seeds. Resulting plants are screened for beneficial mutations resulting in desirable traits. Rebecca Mackelprang, CC BY-SA Mutation breeding, which in my opinion is also a type of biotechnology, is already used in organic food production. In mutation breeding, radiation or chemicals are used to randomly make mutations in the DNA of hundreds or thousands of seeds which are then grown in the field. Breeders scan fields for plants with a desired trait such as disease resistance or increased yield. Thousands of new crop varieties have been created and commercialized through this process, including everything from varieties of quinoa to varieties of grapefruit. Mutation breeding is considered a traditional breeding technique, and thus is not an “excluded method” for organic farming in the United States. CRISPR for mutation is more similar to mutation breeding than it is to genetic engineering. It creates similar end products as mutation breeding, but removes the randomness. It does not introduce new DNA. It is a controlled and predictable technique for generating helpful new plant varieties capable of resisting disease or weathering adverse environmental conditions. Opportunity lost – learning from genetic engineering Most commercialized genetically engineered traits confer herbicide tolerance or insect resistance in corn, soybean or cotton. Yet many other engineered crops exist. While a few are grown in the field, most sit all but forgotten in dark corners of research labs because of the prohibitive expense of passing regulatory hurdles. If the regulatory climate and public perception allow it, crops with valuable traits like these could be produced by CRISPR and become common in our soils and on our tables. Dr. Peggy Lemaux, holding seeds from the hypoallergenic wheat she helped develop with genetic engineering. James Block, CC BY-SA For example, my adviser at UC Berkeley developed, with colleagues, a hypoallergenic variety of wheat. Seeds for this wheat are held captive in envelopes in the basement of our building, untouched for years. A tomato that uses a sweet pepper gene to defend against a bacterial disease, eliminating the need for copper-based pesticide application, has struggled to secure funding to move forward. Carrot, cassava, lettuce, potato and more have been engineered for increased nutritional value. These varieties demonstrate the creativity and expertise of researchers in bringing beneficial new traits to life. Why, then, can’t I buy bread made with hypoallergenic wheat at the grocery store? Loosening the grip of Big Agriculture Research and development of a new genetically engineered crop costs around US$100 million at large seed companies. Clearing the regulatory hurdles laid out by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, EPA and/or FDA (depending on the engineered trait) takes between five and seven years and an additional $35 million. Regulation is important and genetically engineered products should be carefully evaluated. But, the expense allows only large corporations with extensive capital to compete in this arena. The price shuts small companies, academic researchers and NGOs out of the equation. To recoup their $135 million investment in crop commercialization, companies develop products to satisfy the biggest markets of seed buyers – growers of corn, soybean, sugar beet and cotton. The costs of research and development are far lower with CRISPR due to its precision and predictability. And early indications suggest that using CRISPR for mutation will not be subject to the same regulatory hurdles and costs in the U.S. A press release on March 28, 2018 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture says that “under its biotechnology regulations, USDA does not regulate or have any plans to regulate plants that could otherwise have been developed through traditional breeding techniques” if they are developed with approved laboratory procedures. If the EPA and FDA follow suit with reasonable, less costly regulations, CRISPR may escape the dominant financial grasp of large seed companies. Academics, small companies and NGO researchers may see hard work and intellectual capital yield beneficial genome-edited products that are not forever relegated to the basements of research buildings. Common ground: CRISPR for sustainability In the six years since the genome editing capabilities of CRISPR were unlocked, academics, startups and established corporations have announced new agricultural products in the pipeline that use this technology. Some of these focus on traits for consumer health, such as low-gluten or gluten-free wheat for people with celiac disease. Others, such as non-browning mushrooms, can decrease food waste. The lingering California drought demonstrated the importance of crop varieties that use water efficiently. Corn with greater yield under drought stress has already been made using CRISPR, and it is only a matter of time before CRISPR is used to increase drought tolerance in other crops. Powdery mildew-resistant tomatoes could save billions of dollars and eliminate spraying of fungicides. A tomato plant that flowers and makes fruit early could be used in northern latitudes with long days and shorter growing seasons, which will become more important as climate changes. The rules are made, but is the decision final? Dave Chapman, owner of Long Wind Farm, checks for insects on organic tomato plant leaves in his greenhouse in Thetford, Vt. Chapman is a leader of a farmer-driven effort to create an additional organic label that would exclude hydroponic farming and concentrated animal feeding operations. Lisa Rathke/AP Photo In 2016 and 2017, the U.S.National Organic Standards Board (NOSB) voted to exclude all genome-edited crops from organic certification. But in my view, they should reconsider. Some organic growers I interviewed agree. “I see circumstances under which it could be useful for short-cutting a process that for traditional breeding might take many plant generations,” says Tom Willey, an organic farmer emeritus from California. The disruption of natural ecosystems is a major challenge to agriculture, Willey told me, and while the problem cannot be wholly addressed by genome editing, it could lend an opportunity to “reach back into genomes of the wild ancestors of crop species to recapture genetic material” that has been lost through millennia of breeding for high yields. Breeders have successfully used traditional breeding to reintroduce such diversity, but “in the light of the urgency posed by climate change, we might wisely employ CRISPR to accelerate such work,” Willey concludes. Bill Tracy, an organic corn breeder and professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, says, “Many CRISPR-induced changes that could happen in nature could have benefits to all kinds of farmers.” But, the NOSB has already voted on the issue and the rules are unlikely to change without significant pressure. “It’s a question of what social activity could move the needle on that,” Tracy concludes. People on all sides of biotechnology debates want to maximize human and environmental outcomes. Collaborative problem-solving by organic (and conventional) growers, specialists in sustainable agriculture, biotechnologists and policymakers will yield greater progress than individual groups acting alone and dismissing each other. The barriers to this may seem large, but they are of our own making. Hopefully, more people will gain the courage to plug the projector back in and let the conversation continue. Modern bioenergy leads the growth of all renewables to 2023, according to latest IEA market forecast Bioenergy remains the largest source of renewable energy because of its widespread use in heat and transport,sectors in which other renewables currently play a much smaller role (Photograph: Shutterstock) Half of all renewable energy consumption in 2017 came from modern bioenergy Modern bioenergy will have the biggest growth in renewable resources between 2018 and 2023, underscoring its critical role in building a robust renewable portfolio and ensuring a more secure and sustainable energy system, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest market forecast. Renewables will continue their expansion in the next five years, covering 40% of global energy consumption growth, according to the IEA’s Renewables 2018 market analysis and forecast report. Their use continues to increase most rapidly in the electricity sector, and will account for almost a third of total world electricity generation in 2023. Because of weaker policy support and additional barriers to deployment, renewables use expands far more slowly in the transport and heat sectors. While the growth in solar PV and wind is set to continue in the electricity sector, bioenergy remains the largest source of renewable energy because of its widespread use in heat and transport, sectors in which other renewables currently play a much smaller role. “Modern bioenergy is the overlooked giant of the renewable energy field,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. “Its share in the world’s total renewables consumption is about 50% today, in other words as much as hydro, wind, solar and all other renewables combined. We expect modern bioenergy will continue to lead the field, and has huge prospects for further growth. But the right policies and rigorous sustainability regulations will be essential to meet its full potential.” The focus on bioenergy is part of the IEA’s analysis of “blind spots” of the energy system – issues that are critical to the evolution of the energy sector but that receive less attention than they deserve – such as the impact of air conditioners on electricity demand, or the growing impact of petrochemicals on global oil demand. Assuming strong sustainability measures are in force, the report identifies additional untapped potential for bioenergy to “green” and diversify energy usage in the industry and transport sectors. China leads global growth in renewable energy as a result of policies to decarbonise all sectors and reduce harmful local air pollution, and becomes the largest consumer of renewable energy, surpassing the European Union by 2023. Of the world’s largest energy consumers, Brazil has the highest share of renewables by far – almost 45% of total final energy consumption in 2023, driven by significant contribution of bioenergy and hydropower. Meanwhile, solar PV dominates renewable electricity capacity expansion. Renewable capacity additions of 178 gigawatts (GW) in 2017 broke another record, accounting for more than two-thirds of global net electricity capacity growth for the first time. Solar PV capacity expanded the most (97 GW), over half of which was in China. Meanwhile, onshore wind additions globally declined for the second year in a row, and hydropower growth continued to decelerate. Solar PV capacity is forecast to expand by almost 600 GW – more than all other renewable power technologies combined, or as much as twice Japan’s total capacity, reaching 1 terawatt (TW) by the end of the forecast period. Despite recent policy changes, China remains the absolute solar PV leader by far, holding almost 40% of global installed PV capacity in 2023. The United States remains the second-largest growth market for solar PV, followed by India, whose capacity quadruples. Wind remains the second-largest contributor to renewable capacity growth, while hydropower remains the largest renewable electricity source by 2023. Similar to last year’s forecast, wind capacity is expected to expand by 60%. Meanwhile, spurred by technological progress and significant cost reductions, offshore wind capacity triples, with growth moving beyond Europe to Asia and North America. Even with renewable energy technologies becoming increasingly competitive, appropriate policies and market design are critical. Under an accelerated case, which assumes greater supportive government measures, the expansion of renewables in electricity and in transport could be 25% higher. Untapped potential of bioenergy in cement, sugar and ethanol industries is also significant. Bioenergy growth in the industry, transport and electricity sectors combined could be as considerable as that of other renewables in the electricity sector. A significant proportion of this potential relies on wastes and residues that offer low lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigate concerns over land-use change. In addition, using these resources can improve waste management and air quality. About the IEA: The International Energy Agency, the global energy authority, was founded in 1974 to help its member countries co-ordinate a collective response to major oil supply disruptions. Its mission has evolved and rests today on three main pillars: working to ensure global energy security; expanding energy cooperation and dialogue around the world; and promoting an environmentally sustainable energy future. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. November 2018 CHANGE is led by Disabled People withPhilipa Bragman hosted byAnnie Moon Most people with learning disabilities live in a world where decisions that affect them are made by non-learning disabled people. We believe people with learning disabilities are the experts on the changes they need to lead a good quality of life and to get equal access to employment, healthcare, housing, community involvement and information they can understand. CHANGE is built on this belief. The majority of our Board of Trustees are Disabled People, including people with learning disabilities The Future Now Show Village tests Future Rheinau as a Village “The local council is of the opinion that the idea of the Unconditional Basic Income deserves to be tested. The council also takes into account that 25% of the population in Rheinau voted yes when Switzerland could vote for the UBI in 2016. In addition, the local council strongly believes that the planned experiment will not cause any financial disadvantage for Rheinau and its inhabitants. Therefore the council has decided to encourage the population to participate in the experiment in 2019.” A majority of the inhabitants of Rheinau want to test the Unconditional Basic Income with us. We want to carry out this experiment independently from the government or any political party. That’s why we need your help to make the experiment happen in 2019! We need 6.2 million Swiss Francs! It’s an enormous amount of money. Why so much? The sum is based on a projection of the required basic income for the 770 participants for one year. Furthermore we want to pay the basic income at the beginning of the month – as it would be the case in reality. That’s the reason why the amount is so high. By the way: The work done by the project team is voluntary and thus not budget-relevant. At the end of the trial we’ll most likely have money left. We plan to make suggestions to all investors, what should happen to that sum. In the end the majority decides where the money will go. The level of basic income is graded by age in our attempt. On our website you will find exact information on who receives how much, and who has to return how much. Important: Half of the inhabitants of Rheinau earn more then 2500 Swiss Francs. they will therefore return their basic income at the end of the month. Who benefits financially from the experiment? These are mainly families, children, adolescents and retired people. The basic income is unconditional in our trial. The participants can do whatever they want with it. Let us find answers as to how we want to live together in the future. Together. By the way: Donations to the project «Village tests Future» are tax-deductible as donations. What’s special about our project? Our focus is on how the Unconditional Basic Income affects an existing community and the people in it. It is a private, voluntary initiative of citizens: from citizens – for citizens. We are designing the project in close collaboration with the local council and the villagers. All scientific findings during the experiment will contribute to the worldwide debate about the Unconditional Basic Income. The project will be recorded in detail by a film team. «Village tests future» is a pioneering project, which we hope will inspire others. The inhabitants of Rheinau and the team behind the project «Village tests future» are on a pioneering journey. Would you like to come along with us? In this project, everyone can contribute and actively change our reality! Through this project, we are setting a milestone in the worldwide discussion about the basic income. News about the Future AI systems shed light on root cause of religious conflict Artificial intelligence can help us to better understand the causes of religious violence and to potentially control it, according to a new Oxford University collaboration. The study is one of the first to be published that uses psychologically realistic AI – as opposed to machine learning. (…) Justin Lane, a DPhil student in the Institute of Cognitive & Evolutionary Anthropology, who is a co-author on the work, and led the design of the model used and data collection, said: ‘Religious violence is not our default behaviour – in fact it is pretty rare in our history.’ (…) Justin said: ‘Ultimately, to use AI to study religion or culture, we have to look at modelling human psychology because our psychology is the foundation for religion and culture, so the root causes of things like religious violence rest in how our minds process the information that our world presents it.’ (…) To represent everyday society and how people of different faiths interact in the real world, they created a simulated environment and populated it with hundreds – or thousands (or millions), of the human model agents. The only difference being that these ‘people’ all have slightly different variables – age, ethnicity etc. The simulated environments themselves have a basic design. Individuals have a space that they exist in, but within this space there is a certain probability that they will interact with environmental hazards, such as natural disasters and disease etc and at some point, each other. The findings revealed that the most common conditions that enable long periods of mutually escalating xenophobic tension occur when social hazards, such as outgroup members who deny the group’s core beliefs or sacred values, overwhelm people to the point that they can no longer deal with them. It is only when people’s core belief systems are challenged, or they feel that their commitment to their own beliefs is questioned, that anxiety and agitations occur. However, this anxiety only led to violence in 20% of the scenarios created – all of which were triggered by people from either outside of the group, or within, going against the group’s core beliefs and identity. Elements of success: Urban transportation systems of 24 global citiesby McKinsey & CompanyThis report provides a comprehensive view of transportation systems in 24 major cities around the world and compares these cities on five metrics—availability of ransportation, affordability, efficiency, convenience, and sustainability—that directly affect the lives of billions of people. This data is then synthesized to identify the world’s top ten cities by how well they serve the mobility needs of their residents. To accomplish this, the report relies on a combination of extensive quantitative analyses, the opinions of experts, and the perceptions of urban residents. The philosophy behind this approach is that the specifics of how city transportation systems function is important, as is the satisfaction their users have with them. This information is broken down into four parts: a description of the methodology used to compare transportation systems; the benchmarking results; the details of the most important aspects of mobility; and profiles of the top ten performers. Further, the report details global trends in transportation systems. The resulting report reflects a deep understanding of where the problems are, what is working, and what people are thinking. Our hope is that these insights can help city mayors, transport authorities, and carriers define priorities and improve their decision making. The Sustainable City in Dubai The Sustainable City is a working model of what the future could look like. It is a modern application of social, economic and environmental sustainability in the built environment achieved through innovative design, stakeholder engagement, and future monitoring to sustain itself. As the first operational Net Zero Energy city in Dubai, The Sustainable City is modelled to become an international showcase for sustainable living, work, education, and recreation. The Sustainable City is a 46 hectare property development in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Situated on the Al Qudra road, it is the first net zero energy development in the Emirate of Dubai. The development includes 500 villas, 89 apartments and a mixed use area consisting of offices, retail, healthcare facilities, a nursery and food and beverage outlets. Phase 2 of the development will include a hotel, school and innovation centre. The City was developed by Dubai-based Diamond Developers, whose Chief Executive Officer, Faris Saeed, has stated that much of his inspiration for the development came from UC Davis West Village. Key elements of the City include: a residential area of 500 townhouses and courtyard villas inspired by Dubai’s old Bastakiya district 11 natural ‘biodome’ greenhouses, organic farm and individual garden farms for local food production that use a passive cooling method with fans and pads. 10 MW peak solar production waste water recycling, with segregated drainage for greywater and blackwater using papyrus as a biofilter biking and shaded jogging trails charging stations for electric cars an equestrian centre Apart from periphery roads and car parking areas, the development is a car-free site. The parking areas are topped by solar shading featuring solar panels that are connected to an electrical grid to supply energy into different sections of the city. Panels are also placed on the roofs of all of the houses. The construction waste is reused to furniture the public spaces. The townhouses have UV reflective paint to reduce the thermal heat gain inside the houses. Recommended Book Silicon States: The Power and Politics of Big Tech and What It Means for Our Futureby Lucie Greene In Silicon States, renowned futurist and celebrated international think-tank leader Lucie Greene offers an unparalleled look at the players, promises, and potential problems of Big Tech. Through interviews with corporate leaders, influential venture capitalists, scholars, journalists, activists, and more, Greene explores the tension inherent in Silicon Valley’s global influence. If these companies can invent a social network, how might they soon transform our political and health-care systems? If they can revolutionize the cell phone, what might they do for space travel, education, or the housing market? As Silicon Valley faces increased scrutiny over its mistreatment of women, cultural shortcomings, and its role in widespread Russian election interference, we are learning where its interests truly lie, and about the great power these companies wield over an unsuspecting citizenry. While the promise of technology is seductive, it is important to understand these corporations’ possible impacts on our political and socioeconomic institutions. Greene emphasizes that before we hand our future over to a rarefied group of companies, we should examine the world they might build and confront its benefits, prejudices, and inherent flaws. Silicon States pushes us to ask if, ultimately, this is the future we really want. Cycling Industries Europe By Patrick Crehan, Founder and Director at Crehan, Kusano & Associates On October 11 the European Cycling Federation hosted an important meeting in Brussels to launch the creation of a new trade association, the CIE or Cycling Industries Europe. This organisation will represent cycling industry makers and other businesses dependent on cycling, at European level to ensure that the needs of the industry in terms of research, innovation and support for new legislation are adequately catered for at the level of the European Union. Members of the CIE include” Manufacturers of bikes and parts and accessories,” Bike-based service providers including bike-sharing and delivery service providers,” Others are interested in big-data, which looks set to emerge as an important topic in the research agenda.The meeting was a full day affair with high level speakers from the Brussels Government, the European Parliament, the European Commission, the Deputy Mayor of Paris, the Governor of Andalucía and CEOs of various companies from the EU and the USA, including SRAM, the second biggest maker of bike parts in the world.One of the participants was Boréal Bikes a maker of high end connected e-bikes that has created innovative new features such as ‘smart grips’ whereby the handle bars vibrate to communicate with the rider. Another called Reelight makes battery-free lighting systems for bikes. In Scandinavia it is obligatory for bikes to have lights and for the lights to be used during daylight and this measure has so far had a measurable effect on road-safety for cyclists. Next-bike which has been a member of the ECF, and is a founding member and board member of the new CIE trade association, claims to have created the first dock-less bike-share system, which has been copied by other companies many times since. They have 50,000 bikes deployed in 25 countries and 200 cities. The main message from the public sector was one of encouragement emphasising that EU member states, the European Commission and the European Parliament, would like to see cycling attain equal status with the automobile industry within the EU transport and mobility agenda. Although industry has made a lot of progress improving its environmental footprint, transport however has gotten worse and essentially negating the gains made by industry. Cycling is now seen as essential to delivering on sustainable development goals, cutting CO2 to acceptable levels and helping cities in particular achieve other policy objectives related to better health, better quality of life and the creation of new jobs. The vision for the future is one where cycling and walking, also known as active mobility, must increasingly become an integral part of city transport. Clearly as the flow of bikes increases, this will have to be manged as well as flow of automobiles. In cities such as Copenhagen, where the number of bikes on the street now exceeds the number of automobiles, this is already the case. For those who have not been paying attention, it is interesting to note that cargo bikes are capable of carrying loads of up to 250kg up to 60km in a day. The introduction of e-bikes is expanding bike-use and the consumer base while opening up new business possibilities. According to studies carried out by the ECF and its members such as the ECLF or European Cycle Logistics Federation, up to 50% of city freight traffic could be replaced by bikes, which are more efficient for local delivery than vans. A lot is already being done:” Cities are being redesigned to better accommodate bikes and pedestrians with bike-lanes and parking space for bikes, metro and train areas re-designed to accommodate bikes, more pedestrian areas (bike access only) in cities. Already 2,800 cities now take part with initiatives in the annual European mobility week, doing things like organising car-free days or cycle-the-city, cycle-to-work and shop-by-bike campaigns.” EU level bike-friendly legislation is being passed dealing with issues such as VAT on bikes, de-taxing the cost of bikes, encouraging lending to help people buy bikes in particular e-bikes for work and business, establishing and enforcing the right to carry bikes on trains, safety legislation such as the use of day-lights, bike-beacons and sensors on lorries for detecting bikes in blind-spots.” Transport policies are being updated to include biking, walking and “active mobility,” to be integrated with automobiles, traditional public and private modes of transport, intra- and inter-urban systems, including development of regional, national and pan-EU cycle routes.” Bike-based businesses are being encouraged for transport, logistics, mobile-shops, tourism.But much more is needed especially in the area of research and innovation. Research is needed on new bike technology and ITS (Integrated Transport Systems) to facilitate multi-modal transport and logistics in the city and integrate with automobile oriented systems.Compared to the automobile industry, cycling has received very little support. The point of the meeting in Brussels was to emphasise that this needs to change. Cycling also has legitimate research needs in relation to performance, road-safety and the development of bike-based new business models. The newly formed CIE will represent the industry at EU level to ensure that these needs will be metFor the time being the three main issues to be addressed by dedicated research programs include” Congestion (which costs the EU 1% of GDP a year),” Road safety and” Health including air-quality. The EC also wants to see this evolve and at the meeting in Brussels, it invited the bike industry to come forward with its own ideas or a bike-related research agenda. The EC, the EP and the member states all support a plan to introduce new transport funding which integrates bikes. They are aiming at €1.5B for bike related research and innovation for the period 2016-2020, increased to €3B for the period 2021-2027 and €6B for 2028-2035, at which stage it will have achieved parity with the automobile sector in terms of participation in mobility related research. Radical Cities Yale School of Architecture: “Radical Cities: Across Latin America in Search of a New Architecture” What makes the city of the future? How do you heal a divided city? In Radical Cities, Justin McGuirk shares his travels across Latin America in search of the activist architects, maverick politicians and alternative communities answering these questions. From Brazil to Venezuela, and from Mexico to Argentina, McGuirk discovers the people and ideas shaping the way cities are evolving. Futurist Portrait: Amy Webb . Amy Webb is a quantitative futurist and is an Adjunct Assistant Professor at the New York University Stern School of Business. Professor Webb’s research focuses on strategic foresight and using data to model probable, plausible and possible scenarios for the future. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led and won the prestigious 2017 Thinkers50 RADAR Award for her research and work in strategic foresight. Professor Webb is the author of three books and consults on movie and television shows that are set in the near and far future. Her most recent book, The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, explains how to predict and manage technological change. It was selected as one of Fast Company’s Best Books of 2016, was an Amazon’s best book of December 2016, won the Gold Axiom Award for the best book about technology and was a Washington Post Bestseller. Her bestselling memoir Data, A Love Story (Dutton/ Penguin 2013) is about finding love via algorithms. Her TED talk about Data has been viewed more than 6 million times and has been translated into 32 languages. Data is being adapted as a feature film, which is currently in production. She is a 2017-18 Delegate in the United States-Japan Leadership Program and was a 2014-15 Visiting Nieman Fellow at Harvard University, where her research was commended with a national Sigma Delta Chi award. Webb was also a Delegate on the former U.S.-Russia Bilateral Presidential Commission, where she worked with her Russian counterparts on the future of technology, media and international diplomacy. Every year, she lectures about the future of media and technology at Harvard University as well as a number of universities worldwide, which have included Institut d’études politiques de Paris, Tokyo University and National University of Kyiv. Professor Webb is the founder of the Future Today Institute, a leading strategic foresight and future forecasting firm that researches emerging technology on behalf of Fortune 500 and Global 1000 companies, government agencies and financial institutions around the world. She has advised three-star generals, senior government administrators and executive leadership of the world’s largest companies on the future of artificial intelligence. Her future forecasting work has been featured in the New York Times, Harvard Business Review, MIT Sloan Management Review, Wall Street Journal, Fortune, Wired, Fast Company, CNN, NPR and more. Her research has also been cited in several academic papers. She is the tech columnist and a contributing editor at Inc. Magazine, where she writes about the future of technology and business. She has given hundreds of keynotes and invited talks at international forums, which have included the World Economic Forum’s Industry Strategy Meeting, South By Southwest, and the National Academies of Science. Professor Webb’s areas of expertise include Strategic Foresight and Artificial Intelligence. Strategic Foresight entails researching weak signals identification, pattern recognition, emerging tech trends, and scenario mapping. Her work on Artificial Intelligence involves researching generative algorithms, conversational agents, commercial applications, regulatory & compliance issues, bias, and future of ethics. Professor Webb teaches MBA students how to use the tools of futurists for strategic foresight, weak signal observation, emerging trend identification and scenario planning. Amy Webb | 2018 Emerging Tech Trends Report | SXSW 2018 printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2018 & January 2019, Issue 211
Content We’re not prepared for the genetic revolution that’s coming by Robert Chapman Arm-a-Dine The Future Now Show : We Make Change with James Sancton hosted by Annie Moon Repair Café Reimagining Civilization with Floating Cities Recommended Book: The European Union – What is is and what is does A new visualization of Drive Sweden’s long-term vision UN Alliance aims to put fashion on path to sustainability Futurist Portrait: Matthew Griffin Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show featuring We Make Change with James Sancton hosted by Annie Moon“James Sancto and his team at We Make Change are rewriting the way in which volunteering and social change takes place. We Make Change, is not just a platform, it’s a movement. Millennials, the generation of digital natives, with access to connectivity and immense technological innovation, are the first generation with the potential to address global poverty and the last with the opportunity to stop climate change.” Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman We’re not prepared for the genetic revolution that’s coming By Robert Chapman, PhD Candidate,Goldsmiths, University of London When humans’ genetic information (known as the genome) was mapped 15 years ago, it promised to change the world. Optimists anticipated an era in which all genetic diseases would be eradicated. Pessimists feared widespread genetic discrimination. Neither of these hopes and fears have been realised. The reason for this is simple: our genome is complex. Being able to locate specific differences in the genome is only a very small part of understanding how these genetic variants actually work to produce the traits we see. Unfortunately, few people understand just how complex genetic s really is. And as more and more products and services start to use genetic data, there’s a danger that this lack of understanding could lead people to make some very bad decisions. At school we are taught that there is a dominant gene for brown eyes and a recessive one for blue. In reality, there are almost no human traits that are passed from generation to generation in such a straightforward way. Most traits, eye colour included, develop under the influence of several genes, each with its own small effect. What’s more, each gene contributes to many different traits, a concept called pleiotropy. For example, genetic variants associated with autism have also been linked with schizophrenia. When a gene relates to one trait in a positive way (producing a healthy heart, say) but another in a negative way (perhaps increasing the risk of macular degeneration in the eye), it is known as antagonistic pleiotropy. Shutterstock As computing power has increased, scientists have been able to link many individual molecular differences in DNA with specific human characteristics, including behavioural traits such as educational attainment and psychopathy. Each of these genetic variants only explains a tiny amount of variation in a population. But when all these variants are summed together (giving what’s known as a characteristic’s polygenic score) they begin to explain more and more of the differences we see in the people around us. And with a lack of genetic knowledge, that’s where things start to be misunderstood. For example, we could sequence the DNA of a newborn child, calculate their polygenic score for academic achievement and use it to predict, with some degree of accuracy, how well they will do in school. Genetic information may be the strongest and most precise predictor of a child’s strengths and weaknesses. Using genetic data could allow us to more effectively personalise education and target resources to those children most in need. But this would only work if parents, teachers and policymakers have enough understanding of genetics to correctly use the information. Genetic effects can be prevented or enhanced by changing a person’s environment, including by providing educational opportunity and choice. The misplaced view that genetic influences are fixed could lead to a system in which children are permanently separated into grades based on their DNA and not given the right support for their actual abilities. Better medical knowledge In a medical context, people are likely to be given advice and guidance about genetics by a doctor or other professional. But even with such help, people who have better genetic knowledge will benefit more and will be able to make more informed decisions about their own health, family planning, and health of their relatives. People are already confronted with offers to undergo costly genetic testing and gene-based treatments for cancer. Understanding genetics could help them avoid pursuing treatments that aren’t actually suitable in their case. It is now possible to edit the human genome directly using a technique called CRISPR. Even though such genetic modification techniques are regulated, the relative simplicity of CRISPR means that biohackers are already using it to edit their own genomes, for example, to enhance muscle tissue or treat HIV. Such biohacking services are very likely to be made available to buy (even if illegally). But as we know from our explanation of pleiotropy, changing one gene in a positive way could also have catastrophic unintended consequences. Even a broad understanding of this could save would-be biohackers from making a very costly and even potentially fatal mistake. Shutterstock When we don’t have medical professionals to guide us, we become even more vulnerable to potential genetic misinformation. For example, Marmite recently ran an ad campaign offering a genetic test to see if you either love or hate Marmite, at a cost of £89.99. While witty and whimsical, this campaign also has several problems. First, Marmite preference, just like any complex trait, is influenced by complex interactions between genes and environments and is far from determined at birth. At best, a test like this can only say that you are more likely to like Marmite, and it will have a great deal of error in that prediction. Second, the ad campaign shows a young man seemingly “coming out” to his father as a Marmite lover. This apparent analogy to sexual orientation could arguably perpetuate the outdated and dangerous notion of “the gay gene”, or indeed the idea that there is any single gene for complex traits. Having a good level of genetic knowledge will enable people to better question advertising and media campaigns, and potentially save them from wasting their money. My own research has shown that even the well-educated amongst us have poor genetic knowledge. People are not empowered to make informed decisions or to engage in fair and productive public discussions and to make their voices heard. Accurate information about genetics needs to be widely available and more routinely taught. In particular, it needs to be incorporated into the training of teachers, lawyers and health care professionals who will very soon be faced with genetic information in their day-to-day work. To test your genetic knowledge and see how ready you are to make informed decisions in the genomic era visit The International Genetics Literacy and Attitudes Survey and contribute to our ongoing research. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license Arm-a-Dine exercion games lab developed Arm-a-Dine, a social eating system that uses an on-body third arm to explore augmented eating experiences. Arm-a-Dine is a novel interactive multiplayer experience where a third (robotic) arm attached to the stomach of the person supports his/her eating, in particular, we sense facial expressions of other co-eaters to guide the actions of the third arm, fuelling the interlink between eating and facial expressions. With our work, we aim to explore the potential of embodied systems to support the social eating experience. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. December 2018 / January 2019 We Make Change withJames Sancton hosted byAnnie Moon “James Sancto and his team at We Make Change are rewriting the way in which volunteering and social change takes place. We Make Change, is not just a platform, it’s a movement. Millennials, the generation of digital natives, with access to connectivity and immense technological innovation, are the first generation with the potential to address global poverty and the last with the opportunity to stop climate change.” The Future Now ShowCredits James Sancto, Co-Founder & CEO, lWe Make ChangeAnnie Moon, Host, Be the Difference, When good stuff happens, virtual conferencewww.bethedifferenceva.com Repair Café Repair Cafés are free meeting places and they’re all about repairing things (together). In the place where a Repair Café is located, you’ll find tools and materials to help you make any repairs you need. On clothes, furniture, electrical appliances, bicycles, crockery, appliances, toys, et cetera. You’ll also find expert volunteers, with repair skills in all kinds of fields. Visitors bring their broken items from home. Together with the specialists they start making their repairs in the Repair Café. It’s an ongoing learning process. If you have nothing to repair, you can enjoy a cup of tea or coffee. Or you can lend a hand with someone else’s repair job. You can also get inspired at the reading table – by leafing through books on repairs and DIY. There are over 1.500 Repair Cafés worldwide. Visit one in your area or start one yourself! We throw away vast amounts of stuff. Even things with almost nothing wrong, and which could get a new lease on life after a simple repair. The trouble is, lots of people have forgotten that they can repair things themselves or they no longer know how. Knowing how to make repairs is a skill quickly lost. Society doesn’t always show much appreciation for the people who still have this practical knowledge, and against their will they are often left standing on the sidelines. Their experience is never used, or hardly ever.The Repair Café changes all that! People who might otherwise be sidelined are getting involved again. Valuable practical knowledge is getting passed on. Things are being used for longer and don’t have to be thrown away. This reduces the volume of raw materials and energy needed to make new products. It cuts CO2 emissions, for example, because manufacturing new products and recycling old ones causes CO2 to be released.The Repair Café teaches people to see their possessions in a new light. And, once again, to appreciate their value. The Repair Café helps change people’s mindset. This is essential to kindle people’s enthusiasm for a sustainable society.But most of all, the Repair Café just wants to show how much fun repairing things can be, and how easy it often is. Why don’t you give it a go? News about the Future Putting food-safety detection in the hands of consumers MIT Media Lab researchers have developed a wireless system that leverages the cheap RFID tags already on hundreds of billions of products to sense potential food contamination.Food safety incidents have made headlines around the globe for causing illness and death nearly every year for the past two decades. Back in 2008, for instance, 50,000 babies in China were hospitalized after eating infant formula adulterated with melamine, an organic compound used to make plastics, which is toxic in high concentrations. And this April, more than 100 people in Indonesia died from drinking alcohol contaminated, in part, with methanol, a toxic alcohol commonly used to dilute liquor for sale in black markets around the world.The researchers’ system, called RFIQ, includes a reader that senses minute changes in wireless signals emitted from RFID tags when the signals interact with food. For this study they focused on baby formula and alcohol, but in the future, consumers might have their own reader and software to conduct food-safety sensing before buying virtually any product. Systems could also be implemented in supermarket back rooms or in smart fridges to continuously ping an RFID tag to automatically detect food spoilage, the researchers say. Climeworks captures CO2 from air with the world’s first commercial carbon removal technology. Our direct air capture plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere to supply to customers and to unlock a negative emissions future.Our plants capture atmospheric carbon with a filter. Air is drawn into the plant and the CO2 within the air is chemically bound to the filter.Once the filter is saturated with CO2 it is heated (using mainly low-grade heat as an energy source) to around 100 °C (212 °F). The CO2 is then released from the filter and collected as concentrated CO2 gas to supply to customers or for negative emissions technologies.CO2-free air is released back into the atmosphere. This continuous cycle is then ready to start again. The filter is reused many times and lasts for several thousand cycles. Reimagining Civilization with Floating Cities At The Seasteading Institute, we believe that experiments are the source of all progress: to find something better, you have to try something new. But right now, there is no open space for experimenting with new societies. That’s why we work to enable seasteading communities — floating cities — which will allow the next generation of pioneers to peacefully test new ideas for how to live together. Our planet is suffering from serious environmental problems: coastal flooding due to severe storms caused in part by atmospheric pollution and diminishing natural resources among them. But the seas can be home to a new breed of pioneers, seasteaders, who are willing to homestead the Blue Frontier. Oil platforms and cruise ships already inhabit the waters; now it’s time to take the next step to full-fledged ocean civilizations. Joe Quirk and Patri Friedman show us how cities built on floating platforms in the ocean will work, and they profile some of the visionaries who are implementing basic concepts of seasteading today. Seasteading may be visionary, but it already has begun proving the adage that yesterday’s science fiction is tomorrow’s science fact. Recommended Book The European Union – What it is and what it does This publication is a guide to the European Union (EU) and what it does. The first section explains in brief what the European Union is. The second section, ‘What the European Union does’, describes what the EU is doing in 35 different areas to improve the lives of people in Europe and further afield. The third section, ‘How the European Union makes decisions and takes action’, describes the institutions at the heart of the EU’s decision-making process and how their decisions are translated into actions. A new visualization of Drive Sweden’s long-term vision This video animation was originally created by the Drive Me project in order to build awareness among the general public about what the future will bring in terms of automated cars. It was recently updated and has now been approved by Drive Sweden’s board as a visualization of our common vision for Drive Sweden. Drive Sweden is a Strategic Innovation Program launched by the Swedish government. Drive Sweden Outlook Drive Sweden has developed an outlook that shows what we want to jointly achieve within our partnership until 2030. In order to reach our vision for a connected, autonomous, and shared mobility; a number of intermediary steps are necessary. Efforts in vehicle, mobility services and transport system research will be undertaken in an integrated manner that guarantees that Sweden’s mobility of the future will be sustainable, safe, efficient, while also being attractive. In the coming years, this plan will be updated regularly as we follow up on our achievements. UN Alliance aims to put fashion on path to sustainability The fashion industry has seen a spectacular growth in the early 21st century. It is now valued at more than 2.5 trillion dollars and employs over 75 million people worldwide. Between 2000 and 2014, clothing production doubled with the average consumer buying 60 percent more pieces of garment compared to 15 years ago. Yet, each clothing item is now kept half as long. The industry has truly entered the era of “fast fashion”. Despite an increase in jobs, this development comes at a price. The general current states of the fashion industry can be described as an environmental and social emergency. Nearly 20 percent of global waste water is produced by the fashion industry, which also emits about ten percent of global carbon emissions. In addition, the textiles industry has been identified in recent years as a major contributor to plastic entering the ocean, which is a growing concern because of the associated negative environmental and health implications. Fast fashion is also linked to dangerous working conditions due to unsafe processes and hazardous substances used in production. Costs reductions and time pressures are often imposed on all parts of the supply chain, leading to workers suffering from long working hours and low pay.The fashion industry is a $2.5 trillion-dollar industry that employs over 75 million people worldwide, most of them women. Fashion is therefore a key economic sector, which has an essential role to play in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). At the same time, fashion is an environmental and social emergency. Nearly 20 percent of global waste water is produced by the fashion industry (SDG 6), which also emits about ten percent of global carbon emissions – more than the emissions of all international flights and maritime shipping combined (SDG 13). Cotton farming is responsible for 24 percent of insecticides and 11 percent of pesticides despite using only 3 percent of the world’s arable land (SDG 3). In addition, the textiles industry has been identified in recent years as a major contributor to plastic entering the ocean (SDG 14), which is a growing concernbecause of the associated negative environmental and health implications. Moreover, fast fashion is also linked to dangerous working conditions (SDG 8) due to unsafe processes and hazardous substances used in production (SDG 3). Costs reduction and time pressures are often imposed on all parts of the supply chain, leading to employees suffering from long working hours and low pay, with evidence, in some instances, of a lack of respect for fundamental principles and rights at work. Changing consumption patterns towards sustainable behaviours and attitudes requires a shift in how we think about and value garments (SDG 12), with the goal to integrate the true costs of all the resources required for the production process and account for all environmental and social impacts. Despite several organisations’ initiatives, there is yet no coherent, coordinated approach taken by the United Nations to address issues related to the fashion industry. In order to change this, stakeholders from different UN organisations, civil society and industry gathered at the panel event “Fashion and the SDGs: what role for the UN?”, which was organized in March 2018 in the context of the Regional Forum on Sustainable Development in the UNECE region. The panel discussed how the UN could reach a more comprehensive approach towards the development of a sustainable fashion industry in order to contribute to the achievement of the SDGs. The event was successful in establishing a clear link between the fashion industry and the SDGs, many of which will be reviewed at the UN High Level Political Forum, in particular through SDG 6 on clean water and sanitation, SDG 12 on sustainable consumption and production and SDG 15 on life on land. Recommendations discussed prior and during the event included the importance of exploring the establishment of a UN Partnership on Sustainable Fashion. Indeed, it is recognized by SDG 17 that the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development will require different actors working together. UN Environment took a bold step in agreeing to host the Alliance during its first year, and formally launch it at their next Environment Assembly in March 2019. Futurist Portrait: Matthew Griffin “We’re optimists who believe that technology can be used for the good of all humanity. That’s why we want to educate and inspire people, and put them in a position to understand and use exponential technologies,” says Matthew Griffin, Founder and CEO of the 311 Institute, referring to technologies such as artificial intelligence, gene editing, nanotechnology, semiconductors, and beyond, whose power virtually doubles every year. In Griffin’s view, for example, society has a lot of catching up to do if we are to be ready for a ubiquitously connected future in which virtually any question, even a complicated medical diagnosis, can be answered with a dense network of sensors and intelligent devices. “As soon as students graduate from a university, their knowledge is often already outdated. It would be naive to ascribe magic powers to new technologies, but they can unlock new opportunities for tackling humanity’s great unsolved challenges, from poverty and hunger to education to health. We believe,” adds Griffin, “in a future of abundance, of energy, of food, of and of resources of all kinds, not of deprivation. And we should all help build this future for the benefit of all of us, not just one country, or the elites.” Matthew Griffin, award winning Futurist and Founder of the 311 Institute is described as “The Adviser behind the Advisers.” Recognised for the past five years as one of the world’s foremost futurists, innovation and strategy experts Matthew is an author, entrepreneur international speaker who helps investors, multi-nationals, regulators and sovereign governments around the world envision, build and lead the future. Today, asides from being a member of Centrica’s prestigious Technology and Innovation Committee and mentoring XPrize teams, Matthew’s accomplishments, among others, include playing the lead role in helping the world’s largest smartphone manufacturers ideate the next five generations of mobile devices, and what comes beyond, and helping the world’s largest high tech semiconductor manufacturers envision the next twenty years of intelligent machines. Matthew’s clients include Accenture, Bain & Co, Bank of America, Blackrock, Bloomberg, Booz Allen Hamilton, Boston Consulting Group, Dell EMC, Dentons, Deloitte, Deutsche Bank, Du Pont, E&Y, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, HPE, Huawei, JP Morgan Chase, KPMG, Lloyds Banking Group, McKinsey & Co, Monsanto, PWC, Qualcomm, Rolls Royce, SAP, Samsung, Schroeder’s, Sequoia Capital, Sopra Steria, UBS, the UK’s HM Treasury, the USAF and many others. Futurist Keynote Speaker Matthew Griffin: Investing in the Future, Infosys Finacle, Antwerp printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, February 2019, Issue 212
the future ofNANOTECHNOLOGY, ECONOMY, ICT, PHILOSOPHY, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, EDUCATION, MEDICINE, FOOD, MOBILITY, MUSIC, INTERNET, ENERGY, MEDIA, RELIGION, BIOTECH, POLITICS, TECHNOLOGY, ENTERTAINMENT, KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY, ARCHITECTURE, LEARNING, SENIOR CITIZENS, DEMOCRACY, SCIENCE, CULTURE Content Hydrogen Mobility Oppenheim Architecture The Future Now Show : Change withHumberto Schwab Orquesta de Instrumentos Reciclados de Cateura News about the Future: The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) / Orkney – an island with sustainable energy How we’re designing musical instruments with the help of disabled musicians and VR by Franziska Schroeder and Matilde Meireles Recommended Book: Limitless Biohacking: Gain An Unfair Advantage by Conrad Smith Brain-Computer Interface David Suzuki Foundation Futurist Portrait: Richard Buckminster Fuller Club of Amsterdam Search Submit your article Contact Suscribe/Unsuscribe Welcome to the ClubofAmsterdam Journal. A mobile version of the Club of Amsterdam Journal can be downloaded here mobile & printable versions The Future Now Show about Change with Humberto Schwab“What coding is for the digital world is Socratic Design for the real world, we analyze and change our ecology of mind.” Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman Hydrogen Mobility Introduction to Hydrogen Mobility (November 2018) The H2ME initiative is a flagship European project, deploying hundreds of fuel cell hydrogen cars, vans and trucks and the associated refuelling infrastructure, across 8 countries in Europe.It will create the first truly pan-European network, and the world’s largest network of hydrogen refuelling stations. The project is being supported by the European Union through the Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH 2 JU) but is driven by the continuous engagement of the industry. This documents provides a summary of the project status,highlights key achievements and also suggests some of the emerging issues which need to be tackled by the fuel cell vehicle sector as it moves towards a commercially viable mass market proposition. This is a living document that will be updated as the project progresses. It is intended to:• Give first hand information to stakeholders, policy-makers etc.;• Align H2ME partners on the common themes emerging from the early demonstration results;• Serve as a basis for additional dissemination materials. Please find the document here: H2ME_Emerging Conclusions _introduction H2 mobility Hydrogen Europerepresents the European industry, national associations and research centers active in the hydrogen and fuel cell sector. The association partners with the European Commission in the innovation programme Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU). We are promoting hydrogen as the enabler of a zero emission society. Resources The Linde Group – Hydrogen – industrial gas and energy carrier Hydrogen (H 2) has been deployed as an industrial gas for over one hundred years and large volumes are used across the widest range of applications every day. Hydrogen is also set to play a defining role in the much-publicised third, ‘green’ industrial revolution. It is the most commonly occurring element in nature and – unlike fossil fuels such as crude oil or natural gas – will never run out. Like electricity, hydrogen is an energy carrier – not a source of energy. It must therefore be produced. Yet hydrogen offers several key benefits that increase its potential to replace fossil fuels. Stored hydrogen, for example, can be used directly as a fuel or to generate electricity. Hydrogen will open up regenerative, sustainable mobility choices in our everyday lives. Hydrogen-powered vehicles have a long-distance range and can be rapidly fuelled. Decades of research, development and testing have shown that hydrogen technology is a workable, economically viable alternative suited to mass deployment. Nedstack – Fuel Cells Nedstack is one of the leading PEM fuel cell producers in the world. Having well over a decade of stack manufacturing experience, our extensive track-record includes over 500 systems based on Nedstack fuel cells in commercial operation world-wide, several even dating back to 2006. Also, the world’s largest PEM fuel cell system is based on Nedstack fuel cell stacks. Our Fuel Cell stacks have proven a long lifetime capability and high energy efficiency in the field. McPhy “Supporting new ways of thinking about the production and consumption of energy, developing a mix based on renewable energies, more sustainable and anchored in the territories: this is the conviction that we share.At the heart of this project, the hydrogen carrier plays a central role: for the storage of energy of course, but also to decarbonize transportation as well as deploy new industrial uses. As a multi-applications energy carrier, hydrogen plays a key role in the world energy mutation.It can be turned into clean fuel to charge the hydrogen vehicles, injected into the gas networks, used as a raw material for the industry, or as an energy storage solution to give the flexibility requested for the smart grids monitoring. Pragma Industries Pragma Industries has designed of a new fuel cell architecture suitable for high-throughput production. Additionally, the technology created and developed allows a two-fold manufacturing cost reduction and a 50% weight decrease. Created in 2004 and located in Bidart (64), Pragma Industries offers efficient and competitive solutions for two target markets: Research/Education and Industry for portable and e-mobility applications. All these solutions are produced in France, in the company’s manufacturing facilities. Pragma Industries has designed the first commercial-grade fuel cell Pedelec, alpha, integrating the OCS fuel celltechnology. alpha has been developed as a response of today’s energy demand and eco-mobility issues. Hydrogen vs Electric : The Future of Automobiles Oppemheim Architecture Oppenheim Architecture has coated a water treatment plant in Muttenz, Switzerland, in a mixture of stone and clay, to create a building reminiscent of a natural rock form eroded by flowing water. The architecture studio designed the building to elevate what would usually be a private building into a landmark for the nearby town that would draw visitors into educational gallery spaces. US- and Switzerland-based Oppenheim Architecture created the treatment facility for the Muttenz municipality to blend demanding technological needs with a sense of openness, all while respecting the protected woodland next to the site.Source: Dezeen Swiss water-treatment plant to resemble a natural rock The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. February 2019 Change withHumberto Schwab moderated by Marleen Stikker What coding is for the digital world is Socratic Design for the real world, we analyze and change our ecology of mind. The Future Now ShowCredits Humberto Schwab, Socratic Design Academysocraticdesignacademy.com Club of Amsterdamwww.clubofamsterdam.com Orquesta de Instrumentos Reciclados de Cateura The Recycled Orchestra of Cateura(Spanish: Orquesta de Instrumentos Reciclados de Cateura), also known as the Recycled Orchestra, is an orchestra composed of children from Asunción, Paraguay who play musical instruments made from scrap materials collected from Asunción’s Cateura landfill. Formed in 2012, the orchestra has performed internationally with Stevie Wonder and the American heavy-metal bands Metallica and Megadeth. News about the Future The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) is an independent scientific analysis produced by three research organisations tracking climate action since 2009. We track progress towards the globally agreed aim of holding warming well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C. CAT quantifies and evaluates climate change mitigation commitments, and assesses, whether countries are on track to meeting those. It then aggregates country action to the global level, determining likely temperature increase by the end of the century. CAT also develops sectoral analysis to illustrate required pathways for meeting the global temperature goals. Orkney – an island with sustainable energy “A secure, sustainable low carbon island economy driven uniquely by innovation and collaboration, enabling the community to achieve ambitious carbon reduction targets, address fuel poverty and provide energy systems solutions to the world.” In 2013, Orkney produced 103% of its total electricity needs through renewable energy sources upping this figure to 104% in 2014. At first glance, it might seem remarkable that a small group of islands lies at the cutting edge of renewable energy development and implementation in the UK. Perhaps the clue that explains why Orkney is playing a world leading role in the adoption and development of renewables lies in the word “islands”. Standing between the Atlantic and the North Sea, Orkney is home to some of the most energy-rich waters in Europe, some of the strongest winds, and a community that have embraced the potential of the islands with open arms. How we’re designing musical instruments with the help of disabled musicians and VR by Franziska Schroeder, Senior lecturer, School of Creative Arts, Queen’s University Belfast andMatilde Meireles, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Sonic Arts Research Centre, School of Arts, Queen’s University Belfast Virtual Reality technology opens up new experiences and possibilities in music for people with disabilities. Performance Without Barriers, Author provided Most new digital technologies tend to be designed with an able-bodied user in mind. The first desktop computers required fine motor skills to navigate software menus using a mouse, and mobile phones need users to press buttons, swipe screens, and so on. To use such technology a person needs to be fairly dexterous. In our Performance without Barriers research group, we design digital musical interfaces with disabled musicians in mind. This work engages disabled performers from the start of a new technology and looks at the specific abilities they have. In this way, technologies develop in tandem with them, taking into account their mobility, needs and creative interests. Current VR technology is designed for the able bodied, but more importantly it often allows only for passive interactions – listening to music performances, such as Elton John’s 360 concert, for example, or “riding” a rollercoaster. We were more interested in how disabled musicians can use VR technologies in an active and performative way. Working together Our research team consists of a diverse group, including electronic engineers, computer scientists, sonic arts researchers, immersive content designers, a soloist ensemble and a local group that helps disabled musicians perform and compose their own music independently. Together with these musicians, we teamed up with a US software developer, who was designing a VR musical instrument called the “Infinite Instrument”, running on a 360° VR headset called HTC VIVE. The instrument was developed with able-bodied musicians in mind, so we designed it to take into account different types of mobilities. This led to one of our musicians with cerebral palsy playing a new VR instrument that was specifically designed to take into account her expressive upper body movements. It did not require her to use fine motor precision in her arms or fingers, which she does not possess. Drake Music NI, a charity that helps people with disability perform their own music. Drake Music, Author provided (No reuse)VR headsets are necessarily about what you see. However, we found that the tactile feedback from the hand-held controllers – through which a user accesses a menu and press commands to reach content – allowed this particular musician to play the instrument by feeling and hearing it, rather than seeing it through the headset. Not having to rely on the headset also meant she could maintain visual contact with other musicians during the performance. Another example of our collaborative VR design was working with a blind performer. Key to this musician were his virtuosic skills on the clarinet. The idea was to build on his expertise and adapt and enhance his musical performance skills using VR technologies. VR experiences are so concentrated on the visual experience that often they disregard the inherently immersive nature of sound, but it’s all around us, a proper 360° experience. Clearly, a visual headset was not relevant or helpful to this blind musician. We needed to focus on how we could use the other immersive qualities of a space for a music performance. Our team is based at the Sonic LAB in Queen’s, an immersive and fully customisable 3D sound space – often referred to as the iMAX for the ears – we decided to adapt the VIVE technology to this existing context. For our clarinettist we focused on the VIVE controllers, as they are more tactile than visual. They can also track physical positions in a space, which meant the clarinettist was able to position sounds in the 3D Sonic LAB by having the VIVE controller strapped to his instrument.Inclusive thinking and design These bespoke VR instrument designs featured in a showcase concert in November 2018, where disabled musicians performed alongside musicians from the Hard Rain Soloist Ensemble. Showcase performance that brought together musicians of different abilities. PwB, Author provided The audience was positioned in a circle closely surrounding the musicians in order to enhance the immersive experience of the performance space. The disability equipment market worldwide is estimated to increase to more than US$8 billion by 2020, and sales of disabled equipment in the UK have increased over 93% over the last ten years. All technologies, including VR, can be inclusive if the perspective of disabled people is part of their design. Our approach reveals how new technologies can be developed, that actively engage disabled musicians in music making and demonstrate a commitment to quality of life for disabled musicians. We will continue to design instruments that can be used in VR, but we will now focus on using more affordable systems, with a view to creating a virtual reality ensemble of disabled and able-bodied musicians. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Recommended Book Limitless Biohacking: Gain An Unfair Advantage by Conrad SmithLimitless Biohacking is the second half of a journey you have already started. If you’re reading this sentence, something in your life has compelled you to want to become more. You’re researching books to read, looking for the one with the answer… But as most people in your position soon find out, no matter how many books you read, there will be a point where you can no longer progress. The only way to continue to grow is by supplementing your very biology. Yes, true growth comes from without – not within. The biohacks in this book have the ability to actually change your life. The impact that the right supplement can have at the right time in your life is immeasurable. It could help to you gain the advantage in your school, workplace, sport, relationships… But only if you know which supplements to take. Limitless Biohacking will help you find the perfect supplement stack for your individual needs… Limitless Biohacking will show you the science behind nootropics that Big Pharma doesn’t want you to see… Limitless Biohacking will teach you how to make healthy supplementation part of your life, long term… As J.P Morgan once said: “The first step towards getting somewhere is to decide that you are not going to stay where you are.” You’re going places, and this book is your first step. Brain-Computer Interface By Columbia, Zuckerman Institute Columbia Engineers Translate Brain Signals Directly into Speech – Advance marks critical step toward brain-computer interfaces that hold immense promise for those with limited or no ability to speak. Nima Mesgarani, PhD, Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering; Principal Investigator at Columbia’s Zuckerman InstituteCredit: John Abbott In a scientific first, Columbia neuroengineers have created a system that translates thought into intelligible, recognizable speech. By monitoring someone’s brain activity, the technology can reconstruct the words a person hears with unprecedented clarity. This breakthrough, which harnesses the power of speech synthesizers and artificial intelligence, could lead to new ways for computers to communicate directly with the brain. It also lays the groundwork for helping people who cannot speak, such as those living with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) or recovering from stroke, regain their ability to communicate with the outside world. “Our voices help connect us to our friends, family and the world around us, which is why losing the power of one’s voice due to injury or disease is so devastating,” said Nima Mesgarani, PhD, the paper’s senior author and a principal investigator at Columbia University’s Mortimer B. Zuckerman Mind Brain Behavior Institute. “With today’s study, we have a potential way to restore that power. We’ve shown that, with the right technology, these people’s thoughts could be decoded and understood by any listener.” “This would be a game changer. It would give anyone who has lost their ability to speak, whether through injury or disease, the renewed chance to connect to the world around them.” Decades of research has shown that when people speak — or even imagine speaking — telltale patterns of activity appear in their brain. Distinct (but recognizable) pattern of signals also emerge when we listen to someone speak, or imagine listening. Experts, trying to record and decode these patterns, see a future in which thoughts need not remain hidden inside the brain — but instead could be translated into verbal speech at will. But accomplishing this feat has proven challenging. Early efforts to decode brain signals by Dr. Mesgarani and others focused on simple computer models that analyzed spectrograms, which are visual representations of sound frequencies. But because this approach has failed to produce anything resembling intelligible speech, Dr. Mesgarani and his team, including the paper’s first author Hassan Akbari, turned instead to a vocoder, a computer algorithm that can synthesize speech after being trained on recordings of people talking. “This is the same technology used by Amazon Echo and Apple Siri to give verbal responses to our questions,” said Dr. Mesgarani, who is also an associate professor of electrical engineering at Columbia Engineering. To teach the vocoder to interpret to brain activity, Dr. Mesgarani teamed up with Ashesh Dinesh Mehta, MD, PhD, a neurosurgeon at Northwell Health Physician Partners Neuroscience Institute and co-author of today’s paper. Dr. Mehta treats epilepsy patients, some of whom must undergo regular surgeries. “Working with Dr. Mehta, we asked epilepsy patients already undergoing brain surgery to listen to sentences spoken by different people, while we measured patterns of brain activity,” said Dr. Mesgarani. “These neural patterns trained the vocoder.” Next, the researchers asked those same patients to listen to speakers reciting digits between 0 to 9, while recording brain signals that could then be run through the vocoder. The sound produced by the vocoder in response to those signals was analyzed and cleaned up by neural networks, a type of artificial intelligence that mimics the structure of neurons in the biological brain. The end result was a robotic-sounding voice reciting a sequence of numbers. To test the accuracy of the recording, Dr. Mesgarani and his team tasked individuals to listen to the recording and report what they heard. “We found that people could understand and repeat the sounds about 75% of the time, which is well above and beyond any previous attempts,” said Dr. Mesgarani. The improvement in intelligibility was especially evident when comparing the new recordings to the earlier, spectrogram-based attempts. “The sensitive vocoder and powerful neural networks represented the sounds the patients had originally listened to with surprising accuracy.” Dr. Mesgarani and his team plan to test more complicated words and sentences next, and they want to run the same tests on brain signals emitted when a person speaks or imagines speaking. Ultimately, they hope their system could be part of an implant, similar to those worn by some epilepsy patients, that translates the wearer’s thoughts directly into words. “In this scenario, if the wearer thinks ‘I need a glass of water,’ our system could take the brain signals generated by that thought, and turn them into synthesized, verbal speech,” said Dr. Mesgarani. “This would be a game changer. It would give anyone who has lost their ability to speak, whether through injury or disease, the renewed chance to connect to the world around them.” David Suzuki Foundation David Takayoshi Suzuki CC OBC FRSC (born March 24, 1936) is a Canadian academic, science broadcaster and environmental activist. Suzuki earned a Ph.D. in zoology from the University of Chicago in 1961, and was a professor in the genetics department at the University of British Columbia from 1963 until his retirement in 2001. Since the mid-1970s, Suzuki has been known for his television and radio series, documentaries and books about nature and the environment. A longtime activist to reverse global climate change, Suzuki co-founded the David Suzuki Foundation in 1990, to work “to find ways for society to live in balance with the natural world that does sustain us”. The Foundation’s priorities are: oceans and sustainable fishing, climate change and clean energy, sustainability, and Suzuki’s Nature Challenge. The Foundation also works on ways to help protect the oceans from large oil spills such as the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Suzuki has also served as a director of the Canadian Civil Liberties Association from 1982 to 1987. – Wikipedia “We are interconnected with nature, and with each other. What we do to the planet and its living creatures, we do to ourselves. This is the fundamental truth guiding our work at the David Suzuki Foundation. Founded in 1990, the David Suzuki Foundation is a national, bilingual non-profit organization headquartered in Vancouver, with offices in Toronto and Montreal. Through evidence-based research, education and policy analysis, we work to conserve and protect the natural environment, and help create a sustainable Canada. We regularly collaborate with non-profit and community organizations, all levels of government, businesses and individuals.” David Suzuki Foundation: One Nature Futurist Portrait: Richard Buckminster Fuller Richard Buckminster Fuller ( July 12, 1895 – July 1, 1983) was an American architect, systems theorist, author, designer, inventor and futurist. Fuller published more than 30 books, coining or popularizing terms such as “Spaceship Earth”, “Dymaxion” house/car, ephemeralization, synergetic, and “tensegrity”. He also developed numerous inventions, mainly architectural designs, and popularized the widely known geodesic dome. Carbon molecules known as fullerenes were later named by scientists for their structural and mathematical resemblance to geodesic spheres. Fuller was the second World President of Mensa from 1974 to 1983. “You never change things by fighting the existing reality.To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete.” “There will come a time when the proper education of children, by a glorified system of spontaneous education of choice, similar to the Montessori System, will be made possible. Children, as well as grown-ups, in their individual, glorified, drudgery-proof homes of Labrador, the tropics, the Orient, or where you will, to which they can pass with pleasure and expedition by means of ever-improving transportation, will be able to tune in their television and radio to the moving picture lecture of, let us say, President Lowell of Harvard; the professor of Mathematics of Oxford; of the doctor of Indian antiquities of Delhi, etc. Education by choice, with its marvelous motivating psychology of desire for truth, will make life ever cleaner and happier, more rhythmical and artistic.” “Nature never “fails.” Nature complies with its own laws. Nature is the law. When Man lacks understanding of Nature’s laws and a Man-contrived structure buckles unexpectedly, it does not fail. It only demonstrates that Man did not understand Nature’s laws and behaviors. Nothing failed. Man’s knowledge or estimating was inadequate.” “The youth of humanity all around our planet are intuitively revolting from all sovereignties and political ideologies. The youth of Earth are moving intuitively toward an utterly classless, raceless, omnicooperative, omniworld humanity. Children freed of the ignorantly founded educational traditions and exposed only to their spontaneously summoned, computer-stored and -distributed outflow of reliable-opinion-purged, experimentally verified data, shall indeed lead society to its happy egress from all misinformedly conceived, fearfully and legally imposed, and physically enforced customs of yesterday. They can lead all humanity into omnisuccessful survival as well as entrance into an utterly new era of human experience in an as-yet and ever-will-be fundamentally mysterious Universe.” In 3 minutes Thinking Out Loud (documentary 1996) Contact Your comments, ideas are welcome!Please write to us
Club of Amsterdam Journal, March 2019, Issue 213
Content Should we engineer the climate? A social scientist and natural scientist discuss by Rob Bellamy and Matt Watson In Conversation with the Mystic – Jonathan Coslet with Sadhguru | Capitalism and Spirituality The Future Now Show : the future of Europe with Humberto Schwab and Marleen Stikker Bruce Schneier – a “security guru” News about the Future: Bio BAsed Battery / Predicting cancer Bionic limbs Recommended Book: The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Getting entrepreneurial spirit into our schools How drones will change cities Futurist Portrait: Madeline Ashby Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about the future of Europe with Humberto Schwab“With the European elections coming up, the Socratic Design Academy is initiating a video series to contribute to creating a good narrative for Europe.” Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman Should we engineer the climate? A social scientist and natural scientist discuss Rob Bellamy, University of Manchester and Matthew Watson, University of Bristol This is an article from Head to Head, a series in which academics from different disciplines chew over current debates. Let us know what else you’d like covered – all questions welcome. Details of how to contact us are at the end of the article. Rob Bellamy: 2018 has been a year of unprecedented weather extremes around the world. From the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Japan to the largest wildfire in the history of California, the frequency and intensity of such events have been made much more likely by human-induced climate change. They form part of a longer-term trend – observed in the past and projected into the future – that may soon make nations desperate enough to consider engineering the world’s climate deliberately in order to counteract the risks of climate change. Indeed, the spectre of climate engineering hung heavily over the recent United Nations climate conference in Katowice, COP24, having featured in several side events as negotiators agreed on how to implement the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, but left many worried that it does not go far enough. Matt Watson: Climate engineering – or geoengineering – is the purposeful intervention into the climate system to reduce the worst side effects of climate change. There are two broad types of engineering, greenhouse gas removal (GGR) and solar radiation management (or SRM). GGR focuses on removing anthropogenically emitted gases from the atmosphere, directly reducing the greenhouse effect. SRM, meanwhile, is the label given to a diverse mix of large-scale technology ideas for reflecting sunlight away from the Earth, thereby cooling it. An engineered future? RB: It’s increasingly looking like we may have to rely on a combination of such technologies in facing climate change. The authors of the recent IPCC report concluded that it is possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C, but every single one of the pathways they envisaged that are consistent with this goal require the use of greenhouse gas removal, often on a vast scale. While these technologies vary in their levels of maturity, none are ready to be deployed yet – either for technical or social reasons or both. If efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by transitioning away from fossil fuels fail, or greenhouse gas removal technologies are not researched and deployed quickly enough, faster-acting SRM ideas may be needed to avoid so-called “climate emergencies”. SRM ideas include installing mirrors in Earth’s orbit, growing crops that have been genetically modified to make them lighter, painting urban areas white, spraying clouds with salt to make them brighter, and paving mirrors over desert areas – all to reflect sunlight away. But by far the best known idea – and that which has, rightly or wrongly, received the most attention by natural and social scientists alike – is injecting reflective particles, such as sulphate aerosols, into the stratosphere, otherwise known as “stratospheric aerosol injection” or SAI. MW: Despite researching it, I do not feel particularly positive about SRM (very few people do). But our direction of travel is towards a world where climate change will have significant impacts, particularly on those most vulnerable. If you accept the scientific evidence, it’s hard to argue against options that might reduce those impacts, no matter how extreme they appear. Do you remember the film 127 Hours? It tells the (true) story of a young climber who, pinned under a boulder in the middle of nowhere, eventually ends up amputating his arm, without anaesthetic, with a pen knife. In the end, he had little choice. Circumstances dictate decisions. So if you believe climate change is going to be severe, you have no option but to research the options (I am not advocating deployment) as broadly as possible. Because there may well come a point in the future where it would be immoral not to intervene. SRM using stratospheric aerosols has many potential issues but does have a comparison in nature – active volcanism – which can partially inform us about the scientific challenges, such as the dynamic response of the stratosphere. Very little research is currently being conducted, due to a challenging funding landscape. What is being done is at small scale (financially), is linked to other, more benign ideas, or is privately funded. This is hardly ideal. A controversial idea RB: But SAI is a particularly divisive idea for a reason. For example, as well as threatening to disrupt regional weather patterns, it, and the related idea of brightening clouds at sea, would require regular “top-ups” to maintain cooling effects. Because of this, both methods would suffer from the risk of a “termination effect”: where any cessation of cooling would result in a sudden rise in global temperature in line with the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If we hadn’t been reducing our greenhouse gas emissions in the background, this could be a very sharp rise indeed. Such ideas also raise concerns about governance. What if one powerful actor – be it a nation or a wealthy individual – could change the global climate at a whim? And even if there were an international programme, how could meaningful consent be obtained from those who would be affected by the technology? That’s everybody on Earth. What if some nations were harmed by the aerosol injections of others? Attributing liability would be greatly contentious in a world where you can no longer disentangle natural from artificial. And who could be trusted to deliver such a programme? Your experience with the SPICE (Stratospheric Particle Injection for Climate Engineering) project shows that people are wary of private interests. There, it was concerns about a patent application that in part led to the scientists calling off a test of delivery hardware for SAI that would have seen the injection of water 1km above the ground via a pipe and tethered balloon. MW: The technological risks, while vitally important, are not insurmountable. While non-trivial, there are existing technologies that could deliver material to the stratosphere. Most researchers agree that the socio-political risks, such as you outline, outweigh the technological risks. One researcher remarked at a Royal Society meeting, in 2010: “We know that governments have failed to combat climate change, what are the chances of them safely implementing a less-optimal solution?”. This is a hard question to answer well. But in my experience, opponents to research never consider the risk of not researching these ideas. The SPICE project is an example where scientists and engineers took the decision to call off part of an experiment. Despite what was reported, we did this of our own volition. It annoyed me greatly when others, including those who purported to provide oversight, claimed victory for the experiment not going ahead. This belies the amount of soul searching we undertook. I’m proud of the decisions we made, essentially unsupported, and in most people’s eyes it has added to scientists’ credibility. Moral hazard RB: Some people are also worried that the promise of large-scale climate engineering technologies might delay or distract us from reducing greenhouse gas emissions – a “moral hazard”. But this remains to be seen. There are good reasons to think that the promise (or threat) of SRM might even galvanise efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. MW: Yes, I think it’s at least as likely that the threat of SAI would prompt “positive” behaviour, towards a sustainable, greener future, than a “negative” behaviour pattern where we assume technology, currently imaginary, will solve our problems (in fact our grandchildren’s problems, in 50 years time). RB: That said, the risks of a moral hazard may not be the same for all climate engineering ideas, or even all SRM ideas. It’s a shame that the specific idea of stratospheric aerosol injection is so frequently conflated with its parent category of SRM and climate engineering more generally. This leads people to tar all climate engineering ideas with the same brush, which is to the detriment of many other ideas that have so far raised relatively fewer societal concerns, such as more reflective settlements or grasslands on the SRM side of things, or virtually the entire category of greenhouse gas removal ideas. So we risk throwing the baby out with the bathwater. MW: I agree with this – somewhat. It’s certainly true all techniques should be given the same amount of scrutiny based on evidence. Some techniques, however, often look benign but aren’t. Modifying crops to make them more reflective, brightening clouds, even planting trees all have potentially profound impacts at scale. I disagree a little in as much as we simply don’t know enough yet to say which technologies have the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change safely. This means we do need to be thinking about all of these ideas, but objectively. Anyone that passionately backs a particular technology concerns me. If it could be conclusively proven that SAI did more harm than good, then we should stop researching it. All serious researchers in SAI would accept that outcome, and many are actively looking for showstoppers. RB: I agree. But at present there is very little demand for research into SRM from governments and wider society. This needs to be addressed. And we need broad societal involvement in defining the tools – and terms – of such research, and indeed in tackling climate change more broadly. The question of governance MW: Some people think that we should just be getting on with engineering the climate, whereas others feel even the idea of it should not even be discussed or researched. Most academics value governance, as a mechanism that allows freedom to explore ideas safely and there are very few serious researchers, if any, who push back against this. A challenge, of course, is who governs the governors. There are strong feelings on both sides – scientists either must, or cannot, govern their own research, depending on your viewpoint. Personally, I’d like to see a broad, international body set up with the power to govern climate engineering research, especially when conducting outdoor experiments. And I think the hurdles to conducting these experiments should consider both the environmental and social impact, but should not be an impediment to safe, thoughtful research. RB: There are more proposed frameworks for governance than you can shake a stick at. But there are two major problems with them. The first is that most of those frameworks treat all SRM ideas as though they were stratospheric aerosol injection, and call for international regulation. That might be fine for those technologies with risks that cross national boundaries, but for ideas like reflective settlements and grasslands, such heavy handed governance might not make sense. Such governance is also at odds with the bottom-up architecture of the Paris Agreement, which states that countries will make nationally determined efforts to tackle climate change. Which leads us to the second problem: these frameworks have almost exclusively arisen from a very narrow set of viewpoints – either those of natural or social scientists. What we really need now is broad societal participation in defining what governance itself should look like. MW: Yes. There are so many questions that need to be addressed. Who pays for delivery and development and, critically, any consequences? How is the global south enfranchised – they are least responsible, most vulnerable and, given current geopolitical frameworks, unlikely to have a strong say. What does climate engineering mean for our relationship with nature: will anything ever be “natural” again (whatever that is)? All these questions must be considered against the situation where we continue to emit CO2 and extant risks from climate change increase. That climate engineering is sub-optimal to a pristine, sustainably managed planet is hard to argue against. But we don’t live in such a world. And when considered against a +3°C world, I’d suggest the opposite is highly likely to be true. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. In Conversation with the Mystic – Jonathan Coslet with Sadhguru | Capitalism and Spirituality Jaggi Vasudev, Sadhguru and Founder, Isha Foundation, India, captured in the snow at the Annual Meeting 2007 of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Can a capitalist and a yogi find common ground? Sadhguru and Jonathan Coslet, CIO of TPG Holdings, discuss intelligence, the future of the market economy, leadership and finding one’s purpose.Yogi, mystic and visionary, Sadhguru is a spiritual master with a difference. An arresting blend of profundity and pragmatism, his life and work serves as a reminder that yoga is a contemporary science, vitally relevant to our times. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. March 2019 the future of EuropewithHumberto Schwab moderated byMarleen Stikker With the European elections coming up, the Socratic Design Academy is initiating a video series to contribute to creating a good narrative for Europe. The Future Now ShowCredits Humberto Schwab, Socratic Design Academysocraticdesignacademy.com Marleen Stikker, founder, Waagwaag.org The Future Now Show Bruce Schneier – a “security guru” Bruce Schneier: “I am a public-interest technologist, working at the intersection of security, technology, and people. I’ve been writing about security issues on my blog since 2004, and in my monthly newsletter since 1998. I’m a Special Advisor to IBM Security, a fellow and lecturer at Harvard’s Kennedy School, and a board member of EFF -.Electronic Frontier Foundation,” News about the Future Bio Based Battery The worldwide demand for Battery / Accu systems all using Li-ion technology or technology based on the same resources, we foresee issues to mine for these resources. We move from oil and gas to lithium mining. These systems are not completely circular and sustainable. Therefore we developed the Bio Based Battery and the CO2 2Energy system for stationary applications. Energy BufferingThe rapidly increasing amount of solar panels, wind turbines and other form off sustainable electricity generation is increasing. The current electricity infrastructure is not capable of handling all these different inputs on various times. The electricity networks are stressed to the limits and some times over the limit with black outs as a result.Local electricity buffering and storage is needed to level out fluctuations on the network. But also there is a huge demand for local electricity storage at houses, factories, sportclubs, etc.Everywhere where local electricity is generated local electricity storage is useful.It is now the time to make the next step for the energy buffering and the circular economy without abusing the earth.The revolutionary SuWoTec Non Corrosive Electrodes play a vital role in the Efficient Energy Buffering Proces. That’s why we are developing the Bio Based Battery. Predicting cancer Scientists have used artificial intelligence to predict how cancers will progress and evolve – so that doctors can design the most effective treatment for each patientThey developed a new technique called REVOLVER (Repeated evolution of cancer), which picks out patterns in DNA mutation within cancers and uses the information to forecast future genetic changes. The ever-changing nature of tumours is one of the biggest challenges in treating cancer – with cancers often evolving to a drug-resistant form. But a team led by scientists at The Institute of Cancer Research, London, and the University of Edinburgh were able to use their analysis of genetic changes to predict cancer’s next move – allowing doctors to stay one step ahead. Bionic limbs Open Bionics is a Private, Limited UK company.Open Bionics are 3D printing super awesome low-cost robotic prosthetics that are open source. Turning disabilities into superpowers We’re a bionics company developing affordable, assistive devices that enhance the human body. We’ve started by introducing the Hero Arm, a stylish multi-grip bionic hand. Current upper limb prostheses exist as hooks, grippers, or expensive bionic hands. We’re on a mission to make beautiful bionic limbs more accessible. Hero Arm is the world’s first medically certified 3D-printed bionic arm. Recommended Book The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment Editors: Wester, P., Mishra, A., Mukherji, A., Shrestha, A.B. (Eds.) Constitutes the first comprehensive assessment of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, providing an authoritative overview of the region.Assembles the collective knowledge of over 300 leading researchers, practitioners, experts, and policymakersCombines the current state of knowledge of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region in one volume.Offers Open Access to a set of evidence-based and actionable policy solutions and recommendations and nine mountain priorities consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals Getting entrepreneurial spirit into our schools The most important places for learning – including learning about business – are our schools. They are educating tomorrow’s entrepreneurs. The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy therefore encourages schools to create space and attention for business themes in classroom teaching. The aim is to lead school students towards business life as early as possible. The website “Entrepreneurial Spirit in Schools” wishes to provide examples and encourage people to venture into business. It is still rare to find business studies taught at German schools. But it is important for school students to learn how to think and act like an entrepreneur, no matter whether they go into business or not in later life. To help teachers integrate business theory and practice into their classes in a stimulating way, the website offers information on projects and contact points, materials, and online training courses. Also, the Economic Affairs Ministry has developed practical teaching aids. The information and materials provide ideas for classroom teaching and entrepreneurship projects. For example, the website sets up contacts with business people, e.g. in business plan games like business@school or school bankers. Another practical classroom project could be to have school students set up companies and develop business ideas.Information, games and projects for school students School students themselves can use the “Entrepreneurial Spirit in Schools” platform to work on business topics. The site has a dedicated section for young people. It offers specially prepared information as well as, for example, the online entrepreneurship game “Be Boss” and business projects for school students to help them approach business topics in an entertaining way. A special highlight here is the Schüler-Business-Award, in which prizes go to the best business projects by school students in Germany, Austria, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. The group of initiatives A large number of initiatives have been brought together under the umbrella of the Economic Affairs Ministry. The group of initiatives entitled “Entrepreneurial Spirit in Schools” consists of a number of projects and initiatives: JUNIOR, business@school an initiative of The Boston Consulting Group, Jugend gründet, Deutscher Gründerpreis für Schüler, Schul/Banker, TheoPrax, Deutsche Kinder- und Jugendstiftung (Fachnetzwerk Schülerfirmen der DKJS, Lab2Venture), NEBS, Ifex, Ideen machen Schule, Achievers International, NFTE, Bildungswerk der Bayerischen Wirtschaft e. V., Wissensfabrik, cooperatives of school students. The members of this group of initiatives aim to strengthen the culture of entrepreneurship in Germany and safeguard it for the future. To this end, they foster and develop entrepreneurial thinking and acting. Young people are particularly receptive to new ideas, and want to make their ideas happen. “Entrepreneurial Spirit in Schools” provides a platform for this. The initiatives help teachers by organising and managing competitions between school students, companies set up by school students and other business-related projects,setting up contacts with the business community,providing extra classroom materials,organising talks and excursions. The school students are encouraged to be bold and creative, to learn about their own interests and abilities,to develop and build social skills,to assume responsibility in companies of school students,to discover how business works in an exciting way,to try out their own business ideas. The “Entrepreneurial Spirit in Schools” initiative does not aim to make as many school students as possible feel that they ought to set up their own company in later life. Rather, the aim is to foster creativity, responsibility and social skills. Learning by doing. How drones will change cities Elevation is a short documentary by online magazine Dezeen about how drones will transform cities – revolutionising how people travel, how goods are delivered and how buildings look and are constructed. “Aerial highways” will relieve pressure on roads as deliveries and human transportation take to the skies in unmanned electric vehicles. Architecture will change dramatically as the ground floor entrance is replaced by rooftop landing, parking and recharging zones and deliveries arrive via specially constructed portals on the sides of buildings. This vision of the future is set out in the 18-minute film, which features interviews with architects and industry experts including Norman Foster, Paul Priestman, Liam Young and Anab Jain. Yet as well as painting a picture of a utopian drone-filled future, Elevation also hints at more sinister uses of the technology, exploring potential threats to our privacy and safety. Elevation documentary: how drones will change cities Futurist Portrait: Madeline Ashby Madeline Ashby is a futurist and science fiction writer based in Toronto, Canada. Alongside supporting Changeist projects. She has worked with organizations like the Institute for the Future, SciFutures, Nesta, Data & Society, the Atlantic Council, Strategic Innovation Lab, and others. She has conducted workshops with groups like Engineers Without Borders Canada, United Way Canada, and the Ontario Media Development Corporation. She also lectures on science fiction and design thinking at OCAD University in Toronto, where she graduated with a Masters of Design from the Strategic Foresight & Innovation programme, and in creativity and collaboration at Ryerson University. Madeline is also a guest lecturer in the Designing the Future programme at the Dubai Future Academy. She is also the author of the Machine Dynasty series, and the novel Company Town from Tor Books, which was runner up for the Canada Reads prize in 2017. Her fiction has been translated into Japanese and German. Her essays have appeared at BoingBoing, io9, WorldChanging, Creators Project, Arcfinity, MISC Magazine, and FutureNow. Her fiction has appeared in Slate, MIT Tech Review, and elsewhere. She is the author of the Machine Dynasty novels. Her novel Company Town was a Canada Reads finalist. You can buy her books here. Much of what I do is develop what Brian David Johnson at Intel calls “science fiction prototypes.” Often, someone gets in touch with me because they want to talk in a creative but structured way about the future of a given area. It might be intelligent systems, or smart cities, or immigration, or a world without antibiotics. (I’ve written stories about all of those, for my clients.)The end goal might be a story that accompanies an internal communication, or an immersive way to pitch a new idea, or a story that can create a conversation at a workshop or other event. Sometimes I’m asked to write something optimistic. Sometimes I’m asked to describe the worst possible outcome. Sometimes people love my stories. Other times, they leave the room in disgust. (This actually happened, once. It’s my proudest moment.) Either way, I usually meet great people, and I go cool places, and I see technologies in development long before they hit the mainstream. I do this in between writing science fiction novels. Strategic Foresight | Madeline Ashby printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, April 2019, Issue 214
Content We talk about artistic inspiration all the time – but scientific inspiration is a thing too by Tom McLeish The EU in 2018 The Future Now Show : AI and Business with Maarten Stol A Technology to Reverse Climate Change News about the Future: The Animal-AI Olympics / The Future of Urban Living A Better Path to Prosperity by Umair Haque Recommended Book: The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff Illuminate a flower Urban Resilience Futurist Portrait: Judith L. Hand Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about AI and Business with Maarten Stol“Artificial Intelligence hype and showcases the real business value that’s already emerging from AI applications across sectors. Maarten shares real life insights.” Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman We talk about artistic inspiration all the time – but scientific inspiration is a thing too By Tom McLeish, Professor of Natural Philosophy in the Department of Physics, University of York IR Stone/Shutterstock.com I don’t know why it took so long to dawn on me – after 20 years of a scientific career – that what we call the “scientific method” really only refers the second half of any scientific story. It describes how we test and refine the ideas and hypotheses we have about nature through the engagement of experiment or observation and theoretical ideas and models. But something must happen before this. All of this process rests upon the vital, essential, precious ability to conceive of those ideas in the first place. And, sadly, we talk very little about this creative core of science: the imagining of what the unseen structures in the world might be like. We need to be more open about it. I have been repeatedly saddened by hearing from school students that they were put off science “because there seemed no room there for my own creativity”. What on earth have we done to leave this formulaic impression of how science works? Science and poetry The 20th century biologist Peter Medawar was one of the few recent writers to discuss the role of creativity in science at all. He claimed that we are quietly embarrassed about it, because the imaginative phase of science possesses no “method” at all. In his 1982 book Pluto’s Republic he points out: The weakness of the hypothetico-deductive system, in so far as it might profess to cover a complete account of the scientific process, lies in its disclaiming any power to explain how hypotheses come into being. Medawar is equally critical of glib comparisons of scientific creativity to the sources of artistic inspiration. Because whereas the sources of artistic inspiration are often communicated – they “travel” – scientific creativity is very much private. Scientists, he claims, unlike artists, do not share their tentative imaginings or inspired moments, but only the polished results of complete investigations. The romantic poet William Wordsworth, on the other hand, two centuries ago, foresaw a future in which: The remotest discoveries of the Chemist, the Botanist, or Mineralogist, will be as proper objects of the Poet’s art as any upon which it can be employed, if the time should ever come when these things shall be familiar to us. Here is the need for ideas to “travel” again – which, if Medawar is correct, they have still failed to do. By and large poets still don’t write about science (with some notable exceptions such as R S Thomas). Nor is science “an object of contemplation”, as the historian Jacques Barzun put it. Yet the few scientists who have vocalised their experience of formulating new ideas are in no doubt about its contemplative and creative essence. Einstein, in his book with the physicist Leopold Infeld, The Evolution of Physics, wrote: I am enough of an artist to draw freely upon my imagination. Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world. You don’t need to be a great scientist to know this. In my own experience I have seen mathematical solutions in dreams (one dream of a mathematical solution even coming to me and independently and identically to a collaborator on the same night), and imagined a specific structure of protein dynamics while sitting on a hillside. There is a large literature on “creativity” in science, but I have found nothing that really speaks to the lack of discussion of scientific inspiration today or to the pain of lingering experiences in education that set sciences and the arts and humanities in conflicting and opposed camps. Stories of creativity So I set off to ask scientists I knew to narrate, not just their research findings, but the pathways by which they got there. As a sort of “control experiment”, I did the same with poets, composers and artists. I read past accounts of creation in mathematics (Poincaré is very good), novel-writing (Henry James wrote a book about it), art (from Picasso to my Yorkshire friend, the artist late Graeme Willson), and participated in a two day workshop in Cambridge on creativity with physicists and cosmologists. Philosophy, from medieval to 20th century phenomenology, has quite a lot to add. From all these tales emerged a different way to think about what science achieves and where it lies in our long human story – as not only a route to knowledge, but also as a contemplative practice that meets a human need, in ways complementary to art or music. Above all I could not deny the extraordinary way that personal stories of creating the new mapped closely onto each other, whether these sprung from an attempt to create a series of mixed-media artworks reflecting the sufferings of war, or the desire to know what astronomical event had unleashed unprecedented X-ray and radio signals. A common narrative contour of a glimpsed and desired end, a struggle to achieve it, the experience of constraint and dead-end, and even the mysterious “aha” moments that speak of hidden and sub-conscious processes of thought choosing their moments to communicate into our consciousness – all this is a story shared among scientists and artists alike. In my resulting book – The Poetry and Music of Science – I try to make sense of why science’s imaginative and creative core is so hidden, and how to bring it into the light. It’s not the book I first imagined – it just wouldn’t permit a structure of separate accounts of scientific and artistic creativity. Their entanglements run too deep for that. Instead there emerged three “modes” of imagination that both science and art engage: the visual, the textual and the abstract. We think in pictures, in words, and in the abstract forms that we call mathematics and music. It has become increasingly obvious to me that the “two cultures” division between the humanities and sciences is an artificial invention of the late 19th century. Perhaps the best way to address this is simply to ignore it, and start talking to one another more. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. The EU in 2018 Find out everything you need to know about the European Union’s achievements in 2018. The General Report on the Activities of the European Union brings you up to date on how the EU is delivering on its 10 priorities, including actions to boost jobs and the economy. Learn too about how the EU is creating a Digital Single Market to benefit citizens, is leading the fight against climate change, and agreeing new trade deals with major partners like Japan.You can find information on these and many more issues in “The EU in 2018” The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. April 2019 AI and Business withMaarten Stol Artificial Intelligence hype and showcases the real business value that’s already emerging from AI applications across sectors. Maarten shares real life insights The Future Now ShowCreditsMaarten Stol, Principal Scientific Adviser, BrainCreators, the Netherlands www.braincreators.com The Future Now Show A Technology to Reverse Climate Change Climeworks captures CO2 from air with the world’s first commercial carbon removal technology. Our direct air capture plants remove CO2 from the atmosphere to supply to customers and to unlock a negative emissions future. WHAT IS CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL AND WHY IS IT IMPORTANT? Climate change is driven by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, which release carbon dioxide into the air, causing global warming. The 2016 Paris Agreement aims to keep the increase in the global average temperature to “well below” 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, in order to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change on the planet. Although significant strides have been made in renewable energy and energy efficiency, these are not enough to meet the critical 2 °C target. Additional CO2 removal from the atmosphere will be required. Climate change mitigation therefore urgently needs carbon removal technologies. Eighty seven per cent of all IPCC climate scenarios make it clear that negative emissions are absolutely necessary in order to keep global warming below 2 °C. Importantly CO2 removal is not only needed to enable negative emissions but also to achieve zero CO2 emissions globally. Sectors such as shipping and aviation do not yet have viable alternatives to fossil fuels. Traditional mitigation measures such as renewable energies can – even in the optimum scenario – only reduce CO2 by around 80 per cent. The rest must come from removing carbon from the air. Climeworks has developed the first commercial carbon removal technology on the market today, allowing us to physically remove any organisation’s or individual’s past, present and future CO2 emissions. Our plants capture atmospheric carbon with a filter. Air is drawn into the plant and the CO2 within the air is chemically bound to the filter. Once the filter is saturated with CO2 it is heated (using mainly low-grade heat as an energy source) to around 100 °C (212 °F). The CO2 is then released from the filter and collected as concentrated CO2 gas to supply to customers or for negative emissions technologies. CO2-free air is released back into the atmosphere. This continuous cycle is then ready to start again. The filter is reused many times and lasts for several thousand cycles. A Technology to Reverse Climate Change News about the Future The Animal-AI OlympicsWe are proposing a new kind of AI competition. Instead of providing a specific task, we will provide a well-defined arena and a list of cognitive abilities that we will test for in that arena. Many elements will be fixed and known in advance. The tests will all use the same agent with the same inputs and actions. The goal will always be to retrieve the same food items by interacting with previously seen objects. However, the exact layout and variations of the tests will not be released until after the competition. We expect this to be hard challenge. Winning this competition will require an AI system that can behave robustly and generalise to unseen cases. A perfect score will require a breakthrough in AI, well beyond current capabilities. However, even small successes will show that it is possible, not just to find useful patterns in data, but to extrapolate from these to an understanding of how the world works. The Future of Urban LivingForesight Research paper produced from a Think-Tank consultation held at St George’s House, Windsor Castle in December 2018. This foresight research paper was produced from a Think-Tank consultation that explored the ‘Future of Urban Living’ in 2040. The consultation was organised by Future iQ, in conjunction with St George’s House at Windsor Castle, United Kingdom. It was held on 13-14 December 2018. People from various backgrounds and professions participated and developed the topics and scenarios presented in this report. The consultation focussed its discussions on the future of urban living, primarily in the context of cities in the more developed countries of the world. It is recognised that significant portions of the global urban population will reside in cities in developing counties, and that in some cases, those cities will have different challenges and outcomes. A Better Path to Prosperity Umair Haque, author of “The New Capitalist Manifesto“, explains how companies can create real, lasting value. Recommended Book The Age of Surveillance Capitalism by Shoshana Zuboff by Shoshana Zuboff The challenges to humanity posed by the digital future, the first detailed examination of the unprecedented form of power called “surveillance capitalism,” and the quest by powerful corporations to predict and control our behavior. In this masterwork of original thinking and research, Shoshana Zuboff provides startling insights into the phenomenon that she has named surveillance capitalism. The stakes could not be higher: a global architecture of behavior modification threatens human nature in the twenty-first century just as industrial capitalism disfigured the natural world in the twentieth. Zuboff vividly brings to life the consequences as surveillance capitalism advances from Silicon Valley into every economic sector. Vast wealth and power are accumulated in ominous new “behavioral futures markets,” where predictions about our behavior are bought and sold, and the production of goods and services is subordinated to a new “means of behavioral modification.”The threat has shifted from a totalitarian Big Brother state to a ubiquitous digital architecture: a “Big Other” operating in the interests of surveillance capital. Here is the crucible of an unprecedented form of power marked by extreme concentrations of knowledge and free from democratic oversight. Zuboff’s comprehensive and moving analysis lays bare the threats to twenty-first century society: a controlled “hive” of total connection that seduces with promises of total certainty for maximum profit – at the expense of democracy, freedom, and our human future. With little resistance from law or society, surveillance capitalism is on the verge of dominating the social order and shaping the digital future – if we let it. Illuminate a flower It all starts in 2016 with an idea : how to illuminate a flower ? After several months of tests and experimentations, the serum allowing any cutflowers to glow was created together with the company Design Aglaé, the first luminescent vegetal design agency. Our next goal, which will be realized by the end of the year, is flower stabilization : which allows them to everlast (at least several years) and emit light without any maintenance. These products will be used sustainably for different spaces such as hotels, company places and restaurant chains. Our ambition for 2020 ? Currently, we are working on a specific type of light which doesn’t need any electrical source : it is called vegetal phosphorescence. Its involves storing the daylight and release it at night. Our ambition is to design soft plant light solutions, in order to replace some electrical lighting sources Our commitment is to favor the lighting and greening of the cities and to allow the rural areas less enlightened for economic reasons to use this technology. Roadside, parks and gardens, landscaping … and even some remote areas of the Third World, who do not have access to electricity.. Brightened plants without outside light sources, in order to illuminate cities… thanks to the glow of trees ! LuminescenceThanks to a unique serum, your flowers will wear a magical luminescent effect so you may enjoy them by night !The effect is visible on petals and leaves. ConservationNo more flowers that fade too quickly. The Aglaé biodegradable nutrient prolongs the life of your flowers and allows you to enjoy them longer ! DesignThe sleek and elegant design of our black light soliflore is an original object that will dress your interior poetically. Urban Resilience 100 Resilient Cities helps cities around the world become more resilient to social, economic, and physical challenges that are a growing part of the 21stcentury. 100RC provides this assistance through: funding for a Chief Resilience Officer in each of our cities who will lead the resilience efforts; resources for drafting a resilience strategy; access to private sector, public sector, academic, and NGO resilience tools; and membership in a global network of peer cities to share best practices and challenges.What is Urban Resilience? Futurist Portrait: Judith L. Hand Judith L. Hand is an evolutionary biologist, animal behaviorist, novelist, futurist and pioneer in the emerging field of peace ethology. She writes on a variety of topics related to ethology, including the biological and evolutionary roots of war, gender differences in conflict resolution, empowering women, and abolishing war. Her lectures include recent developments in peace research, which may help us prevent war. Her book, Women, Power, and the Biology of Peace is an in-depth exploration of human gender differences with regard to aggression. “Because of genetic inclinations that are as deeply rooted as the bonding-for-aggression inclinations of men, most women would prefer to make or keep the peace, the sooner the better.” In Women, Power, and the Biology of Peace. “If women around the world in the twenty-first century would get their act together they could, partnered with men of like mind, shift the direction of world history to create a future without war.” In A Future Without War: the Strategy of a Warfare Transition. Why Can’t a Woman be More Like a Man? printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, May 2019, Issue 215
Content For the love of technology! Sex robots and virtual reality by Neil McArthur and Markie Twist teamLab Planets TOKYO The Future Now Show : Breaking the laws of thought with Mathijs van Zutphen Basic Income News about the Future: Social Biking challenge / Targeted seeding featuring swarm technology A Tale of Cells and Cities – Our Human Evolutionary Agenda by Elisabet Sahtouris Recommended Book: Who really feeds the world? The failures of Agribusiness and the Promise of agroecology by Vandana Shiva Biosphere 2 Understanding The Science Of Climate Change | Earth’s Survival Futurist Portrait: Ian Goldin Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about Breaking the laws of thought with Mathijs van ZutphenThe world is changing fast, but is it getting better? We all want the same things… Mathijs van Zutphen argues that the obstacle to the real breakthroughs we need is our loyalty to outdated ways of thinking. Some of our deepest assumptions are standing in the way. He argues for a bit of ‘illegal’ philosophy by breaking some of these ancient ‘laws of thought’… and show how that becomes a position of innovation prowess. Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman For the love of technology! Sex robots and virtual reality Neil McArthur, Director, Centre for Professional and Applied Ethics, University of Manitoba Markie Twist, Professor, University of Wisconsin Colleges and the University of Wisconsin-Extension Sex with robots will increase, as technological developments produce new love interests. Shutterstock Neil McArthur, and Markie Twist. Sex as we know it is about to change. We are already living through a new sexual revolution, thanks to technologies that have transformed the way we relate to each other in our intimate relationships. But we believe that a second wave of sexual technologies is now starting to appear, and that these are transforming how some people view their very sexual identity. People we refer to as “digisexuals” are turning to advanced technologies, such as robots, virtual reality (VR) environments and feedback devices known as teledildonics, to take the place of human partners. Neil McArthur is the co-editor of Robot Sex: Social and Ethical Implications, published in 2017 by MIT Press. Defining digisexuality In our research, we use the term digisexuality in two senses. The first, broader sense is to describe the use of advanced technologies in sex and relationships. People are already familiar with what we call first-wave sexual technologies, which are the many things that we use to connect us with our current or prospective partners. We text each other, we use Snapchat and Skype, and we go on social apps like Tinder and Bumble to meet new people. These technologies have been adopted so widely, so quickly, that it is easy to miss what a profound effect they have had on our intimate lives. It is fascinating to study how people use technology in their relationships. Not surprisingly, in our research we can already see people displaying different attachment styles in their use of technology. As with their human relationships, people relate to their technology in ways that may be secure, anxious, avoidant or some (often disorganized) combination of the three. There is a second, narrower sense, in which we use the term digisexuals for people whose sexual identity is shaped by what we call second-wave sexual technologies. These technologies are defined by their ability to offer sexual experiences that are intense, immersive and do not depend on a human partner. Sex robots are the second-wave technology people are most familiar with. They don’t exist yet, not really, but they have been widely discussed in the media and often appear in movies and on television. Some companies have previewed sex robot prototypes, but these are nothing close to what most people would consider a proper sexbot. They are also incredibly creepy. Refining sexbots There are several companies, such as the Real Doll company, working on developing realistic sexbots. But there are a few technical hurdles they have yet to overcome. Truly interactive artificial intelligence is developing slowly, for instance, and it is proving difficult to teach a robot to walk. More interestingly, some inventors have begun experimenting with innovative, non-anthropomorphic designs for sexbots. Meanwhile, VR is progressing rapidly. And in the sex industry, VR is already being used in ways that go beyond the passive viewing of pornography. Immersive virtual worlds and multi-player environments, often coupled with haptic feedback devices, are already being created that offer people intense sexual experiences that the real world possibly never could. Investigative journalist Emily Witt has written about her experience with some of these technologies in her 2016 book, Future Sex: A New Kind of Free Love There is compelling evidence that second-wave technologies have an effect on our brains that is qualitatively different from what came before. MIT professor Sherry Turkle and others have done studies on the intensity of the bond people tend to form with what she calls “relational artifacts” such as robots. Turkle defines relational artifacts as “non-living objects that are, or at least appear to be, sufficiently responsive that people naturally conceive themselves to be in a mutual relationship with them.” Immersive VR experiences also offer a level of intensity that is qualitatively different from other sorts of media. Immersive experiences In a lecture at the Virtual Futures Forum in 2016, VR researcher Sylvia Xueni Pan explained the immersive nature of VR technology. It creates what she describes as a placement and plausibility illusion within the human brain. As a result of its real-time positioning, 3D stereo display and its total field of view, the user’s brain comes to believe that the user is really present. As she says: “If situations and events that happen in VR actually correlates to your actions and relates personally to you, then you react towards these events as if they were real.” As these technologies develop, they will enable sexual experiences that many people will find just as satisfying as those with human partners, or in some cases more so. We believe that in the coming decades, as these technologies become more sophisticated and more widespread, there will be an increasing number of people who will choose to find sex and partnership entirely from artificial agents or in virtual environments. And as they do, we will also see the emergence of this new sexual identity we call digisexuality. Sexuality and stigma A digisexual is someone who sees immersive technologies such as sex robots and virtual reality pornography as integral to their sexual experience, and who feels no need to search for physical intimacy with human partners. Marginal sexual identities almost invariably face stigma, and it is already apparent that digisexuals will be no exception. The idea of digisexuality as an identity has already received strong negative reactions from many commentators in the media and online. We should learn from the mistakes of the past. Society has stigmatized gays and lesbians, bisexuals, pansexuals, asexuals, consensually non-mongamous people and practitioners of bondange/discipline-dominance/submission-sadomasochism (BDSM). Then, as time goes on, we have gradually learned to be more accepting of all these diverse sexual identities. We should bring that same openness to digisexuals. As immersive sexual technologies become more widespread, we should approach them, and their users, with an open mind. We don’t know where technology is going, and there are definitely concerns that need to be discussed — such as the ways in which our interactions with technology could shape our attitudes towards consent with our human partners. Our research addresses one specific piece of the puzzle: the question of how technology impacts sexual-identity formation, and how people with technologically based sexual identities may face stigma and prejudice. Yes, there are dangers. But whips and paddles can hurt too. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. teamLab Planets TOKYO teamLab is an art collective, interdisciplinary group of ultratechnologists whose collaborative practice seeks to navigate the confluence of art, science, technology, design and the natural world. Various specialists such as artists, programmers, engineers, CG animators, mathematicians and architects form teamLab. teamLab aims to explore a new relationship between humans and nature, and between oneself and the world through art. Digital technology has allowed art to liberate itself from the physical and transcend boundaries. teamLab sees no boundary between humans and nature, and between oneself and the world; one is in the other and the other in one. Everything exists in a long, fragile yet miraculous, borderless continuity of life. teamLab’s works are in the permanent collection of the Art Gallery of New South Wales, Sydney; Art Gallery of South Australia, Adelaide; Asian Art Museum, San Francisco; Asia Society Museum, New York; Borusan Contemporary Art Collection, Istanbul; National Gallery of Victoria, Melbourne; and Amos Rex of Helsinki, Finland. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. May 2019 Breaking the laws of thought withMathijs van Zutphen The world is changing fast, but is it getting better? We all want the same things… Mathijs van Zutphen argues that the obstacle to the real breakthroughs we need is our loyalty to outdated ways of thinking. Some of our deepest assumptions are standing in the way. He argues for a bit of ‘illegal’ philosophy by breaking some of these ancient ‘laws of thought’… and show how that becomes a position of innovation prowess. The Future Now ShowCredits Mathijs van Zuphen, Owner at AdValorum, the NetherlandsClub of Amsterdam The Future Now Show Basic Income Duphin, Canada Mincome was an experimental Canadian guaranteed annual income project that was held in Manitoba, during the 1970s. The project was funded jointly by the Manitoba provincial government and the Canadian federal government under Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. It was launched with a news release on February 22, 1974, under the New Democratic Party government of Edward Schreyer, and was closed down in 1979 under the Progressive Conservative government of Sterling Lyon the Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income (GAI), known as Mincome, took place in Dauphin, Manitoba between 1974 and 1979. According to a research into the effects of Mincome on population health, conducted by a University of Manitoba researcher Evelyn Forget in 2011, the experiment has resulted in significant reduction in hospitalization, specifically in case of mental health diagnoses. Among all the people, only two key groups were found to be discouraged from working by the Mincome project – new mothers and teenaged boys, who, instead of entering the workforce at an early age, decided to study until grade 12, increasing the proportion of students who graduate high school. Mincome in Canada (Past, Present & Future) News about the Future Social Biking challenge16-22 September 2019 The European Commission is launching its Social Biking challenge across Europe this year from 16 September (start of EUROPEANMOBILITYWEEK) for three weeks. The Social Biking challenge aims to encourage cycling as a social habit. The challenge promotes physical activity, the use of a sustainable transport mode (the bicycle!), and also aims to increase the modal share of cycling by creating a network of cyclists. Targeted seeding featuring swarm technology They are mobile. They are cloud-controlled. And they are many. They are the field robots of the future from Fendt. As a team, they collaborate in a completely autonomous and efficient way and with high precision. The basic idea is simplification. Each robot has its own integrated planting unit and is driven electrically. Communication with the Logistic Unit is done via the Cloud. How? Fewer sensors, robust control units and a clear hardware structure make each individual Xaver robot extremely reliable and productive. At the same time, the use of a large number of small, identical robots operating in a swarm enables smooth running of the job, even in the event of the failure of a single unit. A Tale of Cells and Cities – Our Human Evolutionary Agenda by Elisabet Sahtouris, PhD dedicated to the Rockefeller Foundation’s100 Resilient Cities initiative An evolution biologist and futurist, noting the visual similarities of naturally evolved biological cells and cities with long histories, makes an actual comparison of the two as complex adaptive living entities in evolution and concludes that cities have greater evolutionary potential for leading us into a mature and peacefully cooperative future than either nations or transnational corporations. The RC100 initative thus has enormous potential for leading the way.IntroductionLooking down on Earth’s surface from an airplane, whether by day or night, our cities look remarkably like cells-nucleated cells, with their obvious nuclear ‘downtown’ hubs, scattered smaller concentrations of buildings like cell organelles, flowing transport systems, extensions into the surround like the pseudopods of amoebae. This has struck me again and again in flying around Earth as an evolution biologist and futurist seeking answers to our big questions on whence we came and where we are headed, all the while teaching my evolving take on them. Eventually I realized that cities were indeed living entities in their own right, and now undergoing a rapid evolution comparable to the origins of the nucleated cells they so resemble. I became an evolution biologist, seeing myself as a deep ‘pastist’ fascinated by how our evolutionary trajectory could help inform my work as a futurist, working to envision the best possibilities for co-creating a future that works for all. The ancient Greeks had defined science as the study of nature for the purpose of seeking guidance in human affairs and had thus named it philos sophias – lover of wisdom, later renamed sciencia by the Romans. That suited me perfectly. In my university training, however, I was only taught a scientific understanding of biological evolution within the framework of the Darwinian concept of competition among individuals in situations of scarcity. That cooperation within and among groups produced abundance, thereby trumping competitive rivalries in scarcity, seemed obvious to me, but that is only now, well over half a century since my post-doctoral fellowship at the American Museum of Natural History in New York, coming seriously into our scientific purvue (See for example David Sloan Wilson’s Does Altruism Exist? Yale University Press 2015.). Darwin acknowledged that the theory best fitting the findings of his extensive researches came from his economist friend Malthus (Thomas Malthus, head of Hailybury College, founded by the first multinational corporation, the East India Company, became famous for his conclusion, after surveying the world, that humans always outstrip their food supplies. Charles Darwin wrote about his own theory in his Origin of Species: “This is the doctrine of Malthus applied to every aspect of nature.” This agreement between the ecomomist and the biologist rationalized colonial exploitation and ). This theory of fierce competition in scarcity was widely adopted and came to inform our very concept of human nature, as well as virtually all our prevailing economic (business and financial) theory and practice. However obvious cooperation in nature has been to countless people all along, it took the gradual adoption of cellular synthesis and evolutionary group selection, along with the discovery of our wonderfully cooperative gut bacteria-all within science-to publicly acknowledge cooperation as the critical aspect of evolution it always has been. Cities, unlike nation states whose artificial boundaries have been drawn and then redrawn by conquests or other shifting political decisions, have, unless built all at once by plan, grown naturally from beginnings as small cooperative villages, and their histories have surprising parallels deep in biological evolution. The first cells of Earth, called archea – ancients – were our most remote biological ancestors. They were the only creatures of Earth for two billion years, fully half of biological evolution. Creating themselves from available molecules (This language is in keeping the definition of life as autopoiesis, the self-creation of living entities, given to biology by Francisco Varela and Humberto Maturana, first publishing it in Autopoiesis and Cognition:the Realization of the Living (1st edition 1973, 2nd 1980)), they also invented new ones, and their original WorldWideWeb of DNA information exchange enabled them to trade genes with enthusiasm as they multiplied wildly. Thus they morphed into new configurations and lifestyles as they gradually occupied every niche from the depths of oceans to the benign interface between land and sea, onto the land and even floating to the heights of an atmosphere they co-created through their own excretion of gases. As atmospheric scientist James Lovelock showed us, life created its own conditions for survival and thrival (This is the Gaia Hypothesis of James Lovelock (with Lynn Margulis), that life creates its own conditions for flourishing, as expounded in Gaia: A New Look at Life on Earth, Oxford Univesity Press, 1979 as well as a plethora of subsequent books on this subject, including my own.). These invisibly tiny pioneering ancestors, having divided themselves prolifically for billions of years without break, are with us even now, far more numerous than any of the other life forms they gave rise to, even coating our human guts and skins, living in concert with our much larger cells to protect our inner and outer surfaces from the dangers we bring on ourselves. But let me not get ahead of my story, for there are further developments in my tale of cells and cities between their pioneering of cellular life on a possibly cellular Earth and the human existence we owe them (Lewis Thomas, author of Lives of a Cell, saw Earth itself as a huge living cell and quippeed that ancient bacteria may have invented us as giant taxis to get around in safely, a friendly thought that looks ever more plausible as we discover more about them.). My work in evolution biology revealed a repeating maturation cycle in which a unity diversifies into individuals, which then go through a creative, competitive youth, eventually negotiating their differences, and in the best case scenarios forming large new internally cooperative living entities which start the cycle anew on a larger scale. The tipping point from youthful competition to mature cooperation apparently is reached when the energy expenditure of hostilities escalates to life threatening magnitude and gives way to the energy saving survival and thrival brought about by the greater efficiency of cooperation. The wonders of scientific research permit us to see how the archea play out the first instance of this cycle, beginning when the early Earth’s crust is packaged into bacterial individuals, which then go through their very long creative, youthful phase. In the course of their lengthy youth, they create several global crises: the first a crisis of hunger when they had consumed all the sugars and acids that were their free food, solved by making their own food through the invention of photosynthesis; the second when oxygen, the output of the hugely successful photosynthesizers, proves to be a highly toxic atmospheric pollutant, solved by evolving a new lifestyle in which oxygen can be consumed as an energy source. How fascinating that our ancestral archea are the only creatures to cause global crises of hunger and pollution until we humans come along billions of years later, and that they solved both crises without benefit of brain! It would seem that our own big brains are an experiment for which the results are not yet in, and so it behooves us to look deeper into this question of maturation, which is leading us to the origin and capabilities of cities. Back to our story, we find that having solved their global crises, the archea are still in their competitive youth, practicing a form of bacterial colonialism in which the orignal type of archea that make their living as fermenters, which I call ‘bubblers’, are now invaded by the new ‘breathers’, the hi-tech consumers of oxygen that have invented electric motors (Nanotechnologists are fascinated by these bacterial motors, made of over 40 kinds of proteins, configured as rotors, stators, cam shafts, ball bearings, etc, in an amazing parallel with motors we humans build, though far more efficient!) permitting them literally to drill their way into the bubblers and occupy them, living off their rich molecules, eating them away from within. This proves, however, to be a poor long-range strategy as the entire ‘colony’ of reproducing breathers within the bloated bubblers proves to be unsustainable. Crises of unsustainability appear to push the archea to new strategies for survival, this time the colonialists taking on board (all this happening in liquid environments) some photosynthesizing ‘bluegreens’ to make food for the beleaguered colony. Lo, the first big leap in evolution since bacteria formed from crustal materials comes about as the archea, having reached energy crises via their exploitative ways, experience the energy efficiency of cooperation. The most successful of these archaic colonial enterprises become nucleated cells as their now cooperative participants engage in friendly divisions of labor, with the motorized breathers attached to the outside, pushing the host bubblers into areas with enough light for the on-board bluegreens to produce food for the whole colony. All of them streamline by stashing most of their DNA collectively into a central library of information persisting to this day as the amazing nucleus. (My story of bacterial evolution is based on Lynn Margulis’ brilliant work on the evolution of nucleated cells. She thoroughly approved my way of telling what is really her story, as told in her popular book Early Life, Science Books International, 1982 as well as more academic texts.) Although the fruit of mature cooperation, the nucleated cells are now new living entities in their own right, and so have to begin their own cycle of maturation in the competitive, creative mode natural to evolving biological youth. Just like their bacterial forbears-which continue to flourish as individuals side by side with their cousins inside the huge new nucleated cooperatives-these big new cells now begin to diversify, evolving countless new forms and lifestyles of their own. After a billion years-half the time it took for them to evolve – nucleated cells make the next big leap in evolution by maturing to form their own cooperatives as multi-celled creatures. Thus they bring into play the whole evolutionary story of fungi, plants and animals that spells out the last quarter of Earthlife’s evolution, the part with which we are most familiar, so we can now fast-forward to the dawn of humanity. Humanity, Cities and the Age of EmpireWhere, then, are we humans in our own evolutionary trajectory within a world of bacteria, nucleated cells and other multi-celled creatures sharing the same Earth? Perhaps we have seen ourselves a bit simplistically as advanced civilized beings who bootstrapped ourselves from primitive, ignorant and nasty club-wielding cavemen to cultured creators of our hi-tech world of awesome artifacts. ‘Original’ or ‘indigenous’ peoples among us remind our hi-tech culture of pre-industrial ways of life. They have survived the predations of humans with the most advanced weapons and most devastating diseases, who claimed more and more of Earth’s surface as their property. (See Jared Diamond’s Guns, Germs and Steel, Norton 1999.) We struggle to see them as our equals, even though many of them, through their peoples’ historic experience with hostilities, both internal and external, eventually evolved cooperative values and practices that, upon respectful attention, are often acknowledged as more mature, more respectful of Earth, wiser, more caring and sharing, than the most evident values and practices of our globally dominant, yet now endangered, civilization. We know from centralized city architecture and artifacts that some ancient peoples built impressive civilizations, to wit the ancient cities of the Aztecs and Incas in the Americas, the ancient cities of China, Asia, the MidEast and Africa. They are known for their spectacular palaces and temples, the most prominent artifacts of empire.Empire building fits the competitive youthful mode of species in evolution. Whether ruled by actual emperors or by nations or corporations, as they have been in turn, they all fit the model. Thus the now long-standing human habit of empire-building seems to suggest, from a biological evolution perspective, that our civilization as a whole is still in youthful competitive mode. Empire building is only 6 to 8 thousand years old, however, while complex social life artifacts go back a hundred thousand years and human tools as long as 2.5 million years. The World Atlas lists the oldest continually occupied cities, most in the MidEast, telling how they all began as small villages that “mostly flourished as centers of trade being strategically placed as meeting points of various trade routes.” Byblos, Lebanon, for example, was “consistently inhabited since 5000 BC. The city started out as a fishing village named Gubal. It grew in strides to become a major commercial establishment especially because of its busy port.” In short, it was trade among people meeting at crossroads-the original version of truly free trade-that inspired and grew cities from small villages. The city of Catal Huyuk in Turkey is at least 9,000 years old and tells a story of peaceful cooperation, its artifacts reveal the strong governance roles of women though men and women had equal social status, and excavations have shown a complete lack of walls or weapons. Thus cities with long histories almost invariably grew as naturally adaptive living entities from small cooperative trade centers. This suggests that humanity completed the evolutionary maturation cycle in countless locations around the world long before empire evolved. If the formation of cities indeed repeats the maturation cycle leading to nucleated cells, and that leading to multi-celled creatures, then we can see why some of the cities beginning as cooperatives went on to begin their own cycle by forming competitive empires. It is interesting to note another parallel with archaic evolution in the Eurasian nomadic peoples that did not settle down to build cities, but armed themselves against each other for territorial battle and used their weapons to invade peaceful early cities, taking them over (As described by Riane Eisler in The Chalice and the Blade, Harper 1987, based on the earlier work of archeologist Marija Gimbutas at UCLA.) much as the hostile breather archea drilled into the sluggish bubblers. In some the invaders merged into city cooperatives; in others they took over to begin competitive empire building. Like the great majority of single nucleated cells, most cities continued to evolve independently as sustainable cooperative entities in their own right. As empire builders drew boundaries around territories, many cities found themselves included whether or not they had actually been invaded. The Incas of the Andes offered villages and small cities throughout their empire guaranteed livelihoods for all and freedom of worship, providing the state SunGod religion was also practiced. Thus they built a largely peaceful internal empire on what might be called paternalistic socialism, and were able to develop highly scientific agriculture that gave rise to half the food eaten in the world today according to the World Bank (Heard in a lecture given at the World Bank headquarters in Washington DC in the early 1990’s.). In other cases of empire building considerable coercion was involved. The human practice of drawing and redrawing artificial boundaries has persisted for thousands of years, throughout the first two waves of empire building and has roots in the territoriality of many natural creatures including fishes, birds and mammals, albeit their skirmishes are almost entirely ritual and bloodless. National empires, however, were based on the uniquely human conquest of disconnected foreign acquisitions with a ruling ‘homeland’. Nation states, born of empire, were created along arbitrary boundaries that have little or no relationship to natural ecosystems except where they are coast or rivers, often cutting up previously settled human communities and creating new conflicts thereby. In the development of corporate empires, the break from a natural evolutionary process becomes more obvious. Their ‘turf’ is even more scattered and shifts with their profits and losses, while their governance and financial transactions are increasingly virtual. Finance, run by increasingly complex and highly intervoven businesses, is mostly virtual now, its inner workings invisible to most people in the physical economy. MBA programs for the mostpart leave it out of business training altogether, settling for teaching within-business accounting. Nevertheless, transnational corporations (TNCs) exert strong influences over national governments, not to mention institutions of higher learning. While their interest is limited to their resources, labor and markets, and so primarily in the laws that constrain or liberate them and the finances that tax or subsidize them, these interests lead to investing considerably in politicians friendly to their interests, as well as to putting their own people into government positions. As of 2014, ranking the biggest economies in the world by the GDPs of nations and revenues of TNCs, 37 of the 100 largest economies in the world were corporate rather than national. For a while, it had looked as if nations would come together in friendly cooperation at a global scale. That was the stated intention in creating the United Nations, for example, with its mission of world peace. But as nations give way to TNCs through trade agreements that explicitly undercut national sovereignty and environmental policies, the wealth gap between rich and poor continues grows to unmanageable proportions, while our ecosystems continue to be degraded with species disappearing at the rate of past great extinctions. Now, evident climate change brought on by burning fossil fuels threatens to throw the entire Earth into a Hot Age that will last for millennia. Unfortunately, continued warfare and fear thereof keeps fossil fuels burning as military expenditures create some of the greatest financial successes of corporate empire. We have not acted on the fact that it is cheaper to feed your enemies than to destroy them, because TNCs, by their charters, must look to lucrative projects such as war, in addition to cheap resources and labor, to maximize profits. The Evolutionary Mandate for Cities:In this scenario it is increasingly clear that naturally evolved and internally cooperative cities are our best hope for bringing humanity into its mature, peaceful and sustainable future. (New cities that are designed, built and occupied as wholes, as in the MidEast and China, are not living entities like those naturally evolved. Whether their living occupants can turn them into living entities as cities remains to be seen.) Cities were the fruit of our first wave of cooperation as humans and have the clear potential for completing their own maturation cycle now. Just as their nucleated cell forbears matured to form multi-cellular creatures, cities can home their internal cooperation and come together with each other in a distributed global multi-citied network that shares their best practices and divides global tasks appropriately. In 1800 only 3% of the human population lived in cities; their exponential rate of growth shows well over half of us are now in urban areas, and predictions for 2050 have 70% of us living in cities worldwide-a percentage that holds already, and is even higher, in some developed countries. The overall trend is clear (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/11/world/more-than-half-the-global-population-growth-is-urban-united-nations-report-finds.html) and if nation states fail under the burden of our perfect storm of crises, cities will have to play ever more important roles in all aspects of human civilization. The internal problems cities face now are the same glaring ones facing their nations and their world-joblessness, homelessness, health crises, unequal educational and other opportunities, racial tensions, environmental degradation, energy grid failures, traffic congestion, political corruption and so on. Thirteen of our twenty largest cities globally, as well as far more smaller ones, are coastal. Their sealevel airports, piers and sewage systems, as well as other infrastructure and populations, are directly threatened by climate change, as is already evident. Our hope lies in the resilence of humanity itself-in the vast array of opportunities for engaging the citizenry of cities in peaceful means of solving their problems and developing resilience in the face of oncoming disasters. (Marilyn Hamilton’s Integral City, New Society, 2008, is a great handbook of solutions. See also the website at http://integralcity.com for lots of available supporting materials and consulting) Inspiring and building internal cooperation through truly democratic citizen engagement, each city can solve problems and become a healthy partner and role model for other cities. The Rockefeller Foundation has recognized and is supporting this process of solutions and resilence in its 100 Resilient Cities project (RC100). Its stated mission is: Helping cities around the world become more resilient to the physical, social, and economic challenges that are a growing part of the 21st century. My city, Honolulu, was appointed in the 3rd cohort of RC100, and we are fortunate that cities such as Oakland, California, two years ahead of us in the first cohort (http://www.100resilientcities.org/strategies/city/oakland#/-_Yz47OTk0OCdpPTEocz5j/), can help us design our own mission as we clearly share many of the same problems from homelessness to rising seas. Oakland, in its two-year report, says: “A key action of the Resilient Oakland playbook is to devleop principles for community engagement in Oakland…The ‘secret sauce’ of Oakland is rooted in our people and the 75 neighborhoods they shape…Diversity is a source of economic vitality for many Oakland businesses. Small businesses represent the foundation of Oakland’s local economy, with 90 percent of businesses in Oakland employing less than 20 people. These businesses face challenges, such as rising commercial rents, increasing gentrification, and recent overall economic stagnation. Given that many of the City’s small businesses are also located in low-income, minority-based neighborhoods, protecting the viability of these businesses is also a matter of equity and social justice.” To restate my case, cities are the most promising human-created living entities able not only to solve their internal problems, but to lead the way in evolving humanity to its second and this time global wave of maturity. Oakland’s report demonstrates the language of mature cooperative problem solving and Oakland is clearly drawing on its creative diversity as it works hard to rehabilitate its neighborhoods, support local economy and improve its self-governance. That is exactly what is now demanded of us all as we must navigate this perfect storm of crises we humans have created. Increasingly severe natural disasters due to climate change, the growing refugee crisis due to both climate change and the persisting horrors of competitive warfare, the many problems resulting from an extreme wealth gap, are all inescapable now. We are caught in these stormy waters, like it or not, and have no choice but to navigate our way through them. Living in Hawaii, I have become acutely aware of its marvelous ancient tradition of Wayfinding-of sailing oceans without compass by knowing the ways of Nature so well, so intimately, that one simply does not get lost. Wayfinding is exemplified by Honolulu’s global ambassador, the traditional double-hulled canoe Hokule’a, in its Malama Aina (Care of the Earth) circumnavigation of Earth, stopping at one coastal city after another on all continents to spread its deep Polynesian values of caring for each other as we care for and share our beloved Earth. (http://www.hokulea.com/worldwide-voyage/) Only mature evolutionary mode, scientifically and spiritually inspired, physically expressed, will work toward a better future now. Hostilites must give way to harmonies and cities as natural living economic polities can lead the way. City by city we can learn and teach each other as role models in evolving beyond old top-down models of our youthful competitive mode that disempowered too many people by holding them down or leaving them out. Truly cooperative citizen participation can solve chronic problems creatively and build inclusive cooperative economies that are resilient in growing climate crises. The greater purpose of building self-sufficiency and cooperation within cities is to prepare them for voluntary union with each other-the globally distributed networking alliance that replaces the old idea of centralized global governance. As multicelled creatures our bodies are an alliance of equally important organs in collaboration and mutual support. The brain is not a dictatorship or any other kind of centralized government; it is largely an information clearing house that passes on its knowledge 24/7 to all other organs, which in turn feed back their information. The RC100 project is a vital step in such information sharing as its cities work on their solutions. Next time you look down on cities from high enough to see them in their entirety, see them in your mind as living cells on a cooperative human scale and send them love! When you come down, engage within your own city, or one near you, follow the RC100 cities for inspiration, and thus become a Wayfinder through crises. Just make sure you find a way to do that which makes your heart sing with passionate joy in the ecstacy of co-creating vibrant community and weaving that into a truly mature human family at last!________________________________ About the author:Elisabet Sahtouris, PhD is an internationally known evolution biologist, futurist, speaker, author and sustainability consultant to businesses, government agencies and other organizations. She is a US and Greek citizen who has lived in the USA, Canada, Greece, Peru and Spain while lecturing, doing workshops and media appearances on all continents. She did her postdoctoral research at the American Museum of Natural History in New York City, taught at \MIT and UMass, was a science writer for the NOVA-HORIZON TV science series, a UN Consultant on indigenous peoples, was invited to China by the Chinese National Science Organization, is an advisor to Ethical Markets and holds the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies at the World Business Academy. Dr. Sahtouris a member of the Evolutionary Leaders , a founding member of Rising Women; Rising World, and has co-convened two international symposia on the foundations of science in Hokkaido and Kuala Lumpur. She is currently Professor in Residence at Chaminade University, teaching in the School of Business & Communication MBA Program and helping redesign it for entrepreneurship in Island economies. Recommended Book Who Really Feeds the World?: The Failures of Agribusiness and the Promise of Agroecology by Vandana ShivaIn Who Really Feeds the World?, author and activist Vandana Shiva debunks the notion that our current food crisis is inevitable and must be addressed through industrial agriculture and genetic modification. In fact, Shiva argues, those forces are the ones responsible for the hunger problem in the first place. As an alternative, Shiva emphasizes agroecology, the knowledge and science of the complex interactions that produce our food. She succinctly and eloquently lays out the networks of people and processes that feed the world, exploring issues of diversity, the needs of small famers, the importance of seed saving, the movement toward localization, and the role of women in producing the world’s food. Refuting widely held beliefs about the global food crisis, Shiva delivers a powerful manifesto calling for agricultural justice and sustainability, drawing upon her thirty years of research and accomplishments in the field Biosphere 2 What Is Biosphere 2?The Biosphere 2 facility serves as a laboratory for controlled scientific studies, an arena for scientific discovery and discussion, and a far-reaching provider of public education. Its mission is to serve as a center for research, outreach, teaching and life-long learning about Earth, its living systems, and its place in the universe; to catalyze interdisciplinary thinking and understanding about Earth and its future; to be an adaptive tool for Earth education and outreach to industry, government, and the public; and to distill issues related to Earth systems planning and management for use by policymakers, students and the public. Biosphere 2 consists of a unique large-scale experimental apparatus housing seven model ecosystems, a team of multidisciplinary scientists, a broad science education and public outreach program, and a modern conference center. The seven model ecosystems are: a mature rain forest with over 90 tropical tree species, a 2600 m3 ocean, forested swamps dominated by mangrove trees, a tropical savanna grassland, a 1400 m2 coastal fog desert, three desert hillslope grass-shrubland landscapes, and Biosphere 2, its campus, and associated buildings and facilities serve as a 162,000 m2 model city and urban ecosystem. The Biosphere 2 Science Program addresses societal grand challenges related to water, environmental and energy management through design of large-scale experimentation in each of these model ecosystems. These experiments support the development of computer models that simulate the biological, physical and chemical processes to predict ecosystem response to environmental change. In return, these coupled-systems model simulations inform scientists about the next level of experimentation needed to advance understanding of these complex systems’ responses that can be tested against observations in natural systems. Inside Biosphere 2: The World’s Largest Earth Science Experiment Understanding The Science Of Climate Change | Earth’s Survival Made in consultation with the IPCC and world-leading climate scientists, this groundbreaking documentary explains the headlines that are addressed in the Fifth Assessment Report in 2015, and how we may be in the middle of the most crucial moment of Earth’s history. It decodes thousands of pages of scientific data into digestible, easy to understand science, punctuated in places by clever, creative CGI. Futurist Portrait: Ian Goldin Professor Ian Goldin was the founding Director of the Oxford Martin School from September 2006 to September 2016. He is currently Oxford University Professor of Globalisation and Development and the Director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Technological and Economic Change. He is a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin School and a Professorial Fellow at the University’s Balliol College. During his decade as Director the School established 45 programmes of research, bringing together more than 500 academics from across Oxford, from over 100 disciplines, and becoming the world’s leading centre for interdisciplinary research into critical global challenges. Professor Goldin initiated and was Vice-Chair of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations, which brought together 19 international leaders from government, business, academia, media and civil society to address the growing short-term preoccupations of modern politics and business, and identify ways of overcoming today’s gridlock in key international negotiations. The Commission’s report, Now for the Long Term, was published in October 2013. From 2003 to 2006 he was Vice President of the World Bank, and prior to that the Bank’s Director of Development Policy (2001-2003). He served on the Bank’s senior management team and led the Bank’s collaboration with the United Nations and other partners as well as with key countries. As Director of Development Policy, he played a pivotal role in the research and strategy agenda of the Bank. From 1996 to 2001 he was Chief Executive and Managing Director of the Development Bank of Southern Africa and served as an advisor to President Nelson Mandela. He succeeded in transforming the Bank to become the leading agent of development in the 14 countries of Southern Africa. During this period, Goldin served on several Government committees and Boards, and was Finance Director for South Africa’s Olympic Bid. Previously, Goldin was Principal Economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in London, and Program Director at the OECD Development Centre in Paris, where he directed the Programs on Trade, Environment and Sustainable Development. Navigating Our Global Future – Ian Goldin printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, June 2019, Issue 216
Content The Matrix 20 years on: how a sci-fi film tackled big philosophical question by Richard Colledge The Liquid Metal Battery: Innovation in stationary electricity storage by Donald Sadoway The Future Now Show : The Truth Engine with Peter Cochrane FutureHotel Innovation Network News about the Future: Future Economy – Singapore / Storing renewable energy in molten salt Deep Space 8K Recommended Book: Clean Meat by Paul Shapiro ANYmal Nature’s Bounty: What You Need To Know About Harvesting Rainwater by Anna Kucirkova Futurist Portrait: Eric Haseltine Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about The Truth Engine with Peter Cochrane“All civilisations live or die by the quality of their fundamental truths. Governments, legal systems, commerce, industry, engineering, science and education are built on verifiable and hard won knowledge that is tested and continually honed by new discoveries and revelations based on evidence and accumulated experience. However, truth, facts, knowledge and expertise are now under attack and suffering in accelerating rates of distortion and corruption. In an age of information wars, establishing ‘the truth’ and/or applying verifiable facts and knowledge are no longer easy or straightforward. Modern media, the internet, social networks, has given everyone a voice, and an assumed right to express their opinion even if they may be totally ignorant. So, plagiarism, errors, and deliberate falsifications have become a new tool for some political and commercial operations, and a new form of information warfare! Truth is expensive and hard to comprehend, and it is far easier to unthinkingly accept simple (and often crude) misrepresentations and lies from anonymous sources, bogus media and pernicious sources including criminals, rogue states and corrupt political groups. At the click of a key they can distribute the falsehoods to millions of screens where quantity and not quality define a new truth!” – Peter Cochrane Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman The Matrix 20 years on: how a sci-fi film tackled big philosophical questions by Richard Colledge, Senior Lecturer & Head of School of Philosophy, Australian Catholic University Incredible as it may seem, the end of March marks 20 years since the release of the first film in the Matrix franchise directed by The Wachowski siblings. This “cyberpunk” sci-fi movie was a box office hit with its dystopian futuristic vision, distinctive fashion sense, and slick, innovative action sequences. But it was also a catalyst for popular discussion around some very big philosophical themes. The film centres on a computer hacker, “Neo” (played by Keanu Reeves), who learns that his whole life has been lived within an elaborate, simulated reality. This computer-generated dream world was designed by an artificial intelligence of human creation, which industrially farms human bodies for energy while distracting them via a relatively pleasant parallel reality called the “matrix”. This scenario recalls one of western philosophy’s most enduring thought experiments. In a famous passage from Plato’s Republic (ca 380 BCE), Plato has us imagine the human condition as being like a group of prisoners who have lived their lives underground and shackled, so that their experience of reality is limited to shadows projected onto their cave wall. A freed prisoner, Plato suggests, would be startled to discover the truth about reality, and blinded by the brilliance of the sun. Should he return below, his companions would have no means to understand what he has experienced and surely think him mad. Leaving the captivity of ignorance is difficult. In The Matrix, Neo is freed by rebel leader Morpheus (ironically, the name of the Greek God of sleep) by being awoken to real life for the first time. But unlike Plato’s prisoner, who discovers the “higher” reality beyond his cave, the world that awaits Neo is both desolate and horrifying. Our fallible senses The Matrix also trades on more recent philosophical questions famously posed by the 17th century Frenchman René Descartes, concerning our inability to be certain about the evidence of our senses, and our capacity to know anything definite about the world as it really is. Descartes even noted the difficulty of being certain that human experience is not the result of either a dream or a malevolent systematic deception. The latter scenario was updated in philosopher Hilary Putnam’s 1981 “brain in a vat” thought experiment, which imagines a scientist electrically manipulating a brain to induce sensations of normal life. So ultimately, then, what is reality? The late 20th century French thinker Jean Baudrillard, whose book appears briefly (with an ironic touch) early in the film, wrote extensively on the ways in which contemporary mass society generates sophisticated imitations of reality that become so realistic they are mistaken for reality itself (like mistaking the map for the landscape, or the portrait for the person). Of course, there is no need for a matrix-like AI conspiracy to achieve this. We see it now, perhaps even more intensely than 20 years ago, in the dominance of “reality TV” and curated identities of social media. In some respects, the film appears to be reaching for a view close to that of the 18th century German philosopher, Immanuel Kant, who insisted that our senses do not simply copy the world; rather, reality conforms to the terms of our perception. We only ever experience the world as it is available through the partial spectrum of our senses. The ethics of freedom Ultimately, the Matrix trilogy proclaims that free individuals can change the future. But how should that freedom be exercised? This dilemma is unfolded in the first film’s increasingly notorious red/blue pill scene, which raises the ethics of belief. Neo’s choice is to embrace either the “really real” (as exemplified by the red pill he is offered by Morpheus) or to return to his more normal “reality” (via the blue one).https://www.youtube.com/embed/_ManqKgHTGE?wmode=transparent&start=0 This quandary was captured in a 1974 thought experiment by American philosopher, Robert Nozick. Given an “experience machine” capable of providing whatever experiences we desire, in a way indistinguishable from “real” ones, should we stubbornly prefer the truth of reality? Or can we feel free to reside within comfortable illusion? In The Matrix we see the rebels resolutely rejecting the comforts of the matrix, preferring grim reality. But we also see the rebel traitor Cypher (Joe Pantoliano) desperately seeking reinsertion into pleasant simulated reality. “Ignorance is bliss,” he affirms. The film’s chief villain, Agent Smith (Hugo Weaving), darkly notes that unlike other mammals, (western) humanity insatiably consumes natural resources. The matrix, he suggests, is a “cure” for this human “contagion”. We have heard much about the potential perils of AI, but perhaps there is something in Agent Smith’s accusation. In raising this tension, The Matrix still strikes a nerve – especially after 20 further years of insatiable consumption. Richard Colledge, Senior Lecturer & Head of School of Philosophy, Australian Catholic University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. The Liquid Metal Battery: Innovation in stationary electricity storage By Donald Sadoway Massive-scale electricity storage would offer huge benefits to today’s grid, reducing price volatility, improving stability against loss of power, increasing utilization of generation assets by enabling us to design towards average demand instead of peak demand, and deferring the costs of upgrading existing transmission lines. When it comes to tomorrow’s grid, storage is key to widespread integration of renewables, i.e., solar and wind, which due to their inherent intermittency present challenges for contribution to base load. Comprising two liquid metal electrodes and a molten salt electrolyte, the liquid metal battery offers colossal current capability and long service lifetime at very low cost, i.e., the price point of the electricity market. The round-trip efficiency of these batteries is greater than 80% under daily 4 h discharge (C/4). Fade rates of 0.00009%/cycle have been measured which means retention of of more tahn 99% of initial capacity after 10 years of daily cycling at full depth of discharge. There is much to be learned from the innovative process that led to the discovery of disruptive battery technology. Biography Donald R. Sadoway is the John F. Elliott Professor of Materials Chemistry in the Department of Materials Science and Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His B.A.Sc. in Engineering Science, M.A.Sc. in Chemical Metallurgy, and Ph.D. in Chemical Metallurgy are all from the University of Toronto. He joined the MIT faculty in 1978. The author of over 170 scientific papers and holder of 28 U.S. patents, his research is directed towards the development of rechargeable batteries as well as environmentally sound technologies for metals extraction. He is the founder of two companies, Ambri and Boston Metal. Online videos of his chemistry lectures hosted by MIT OpenCourseWare extend his impact on engineering education far beyond the lecture hall. Viewed 1,800,000 times, his TED talk is as much about inventing inventors as it is about inventing technology. In 2012 he was named by Time magazine as one of the 100 Most Influential People in the World. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. June 2019 The Truth Engine withPeter Cochrane All civilisations live or die by the quality of their fundamental truths. Governments, legal systems, commerce, industry, engineering, science and education are built on verifiable and hard won knowledge that is tested and continually honed by new discoveries and revelations based on evidence and accumulated experience. However, truth, facts, knowledge and expertise are now under attack and suffering in accelerating rates of distortion and corruption. In an age of information wars, establishing ‘the truth’ and/or applying verifiable facts and knowledge are no longer easy or straightforward. Modern media, the internet, social networks, has given everyone a voice, and an assumed right to express their opinion even if they may be totally ignorant. So, plagiarism, errors, and deliberate falsifications have become a new tool for some political and commercial operations, and a new form of information warfare! Truth is expensive and hard to comprehend, and it is far easier to unthinkingly accept simple (and often crude) misrepresentations and lies from anonymous sources, bogus media and pernicious sources including criminals, rogue states and corrupt political groups. At the click of a key they can distribute the falsehoods to millions of screens where quantity and not quality define a new truth! The Future Now ShowCredits Professor Peter Cochrane OBE, Cochrane Associates Co-Founder, Sentient Systems University of Suffolk UKhttps://petercochrane.com ResourcesFact Checkers: There are now over 160 organisations world-wide with the biggest and most mature contributors including Snopes, The Washington Post, BBC et al https://medium.com/positive-returns/creating-a-global-fact-checking-community-9157a96c3f83 https://fullfact.org/blog/2018/jul/full-fact-says-ciao-global-fact-2018/ A Library of Lies: Still at a very early stage, but a vast ecology currently dominated by a focus on a single personality. So, topic wise, a bit ‘thin’ but a good start including; The New York Times, Politifact, Vox Ukraine, et al https://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/statements/byruling/false/ https://voxukraine.org/longreads/lie-theory/index-en.html The Future Now Show FutureHotel Innovation Network The »FutureHotel« project is dedicated to central questions regarding the hotel of the future. Toghether with partners from the hospitality sector, the Fraunhofer IAO is researching key developements and their influence on the hospitality sector. Different types of guests and their specific demands are analysed along with the potential for optimisation in hospitality management and operations. New, forward-looking solutions for the various facilities of a hotel, such as guest rooms, reception, conference areas etc. will be researched. Technological innovations as well as economic, ecological and social viewpoints will be taken into account. In addition, laboratories like the Showcase »FutureHotel«, located in the inHaus Innovation Center in Duisburg as well as the »Urban Living Lab« in Stuttgart, offer a unique opportunity to combine theoretical research with a real testing field. FutureHotel Building 2052 (English E-Book)Visions and Solutions for Hotel Buildings of the Future; a Study of the Joint Research Project FutureHotel The study »FutureHotel Building 2052« presents sustainable possibilities for developing the hotel oft he future. Areas of innovation will be discussed from the planning process up to building automation, and a FutureHotel Building vision for the year 2052 will be presented. The study covers the following topics:– Summary of current visions and scenarios for the year 2052– Identification of relevant trends and developments– Presentation of various areas of innovation and the resulting potential for the hotel industry– FutureHotel vision for the year 2052 and subsequent implications for hotel projects in practice. The study provides investors and hoteliers, as well as their planners and consultants, concrete aids to ease decision-making processes and ensure long-term competitiveness. The individual strategy should always be adjusted to the specific situation and requirements of the respective hotel’s operations, as each hotel is unique and must find its own niche to be competitive. News about the Future Future Economy – Singapore The Future Economy Council (FEC) drives the growth and transformation of Singapore’s economy for the future. Chaired by Minister for Finance Mr. Heng Swee Keat, the Council comprises members from government, industry, unions, and educational and training institutions. Storing renewable energy in molten salt Wind and solar power are abundant, clean, and increasingly inexpensive energy sources. However, they’re not always available when the demand for power is greatest. If wind and solar farms are producing more energy than the electric grid needs, the energy goes to waste. In California, up to 30% of solar energy cannot be used when it’s produced. Worse, if electricity demand spikes during periods when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing, utilities will often fire up “peaker plants” to bring extra power online quickly. These are usually powered by fossil fuels and emit large amounts of CO2 relative to ordinary power plants.Up to 30% of solar energy in California is wasted because it cannot be used when it’s produced. Malta is building a grid-scale energy storage technology that stores electricity from renewable energy sources as heat inside large tanks of high temperature molten salt and as cold in large tanks of chilled liquid. The system can discharge electricity back to the grid when energy demand is high – effectively “time shifting” energy from when it’s produced to when it’s most needed. Deep Space 8K The Ars Electronica Center offers its visitors something that can not be found anywhere else in the world: 16 x 9 meters of wall and another 16 x 9 meters of floor projection, laser tracking and 3D animations make the Deep Space 8K something very special indeed. Here, image worlds are projected in 8K resolution and raised to a completely new, unprecedented level. A visit to the Deep Space 8K is unique, mesmerizing, impressive and overwhelming! Recommended Book Clean Meat by Paul Shapiro The next great scientific revolution is underway: discovering new ways to create enough food for the world’s ever-growing, ever-hungry population. In the Washington Post bestseller, Clean Meat (2018), Paul Shapiro chronicles the entrepreneurs and investors racing to commercialize the world’s first real animal products grown without animals. Whereas our ancestors domesticated wild animals into livestock, today we’re beginning to domesticate their cells, leaving the animals out of the equation. And the story Paul Shapiro tells of this Second Domestication is anything but tame. Shapiro gives you a front-row seat for the wild story of the race to create and commercialize cleaner, safer, sustainable meat — real meat — without the animals. From the entrepreneurial visionaries to the scientists’ workshops to the big business boardrooms, Shapiro details the quest for clean meat and other animal products and examines the debate raging around it. ANYmal ANYmal is a quadrupedal robot designed for autonomous operation in challenging environments. Driven by special compliant and precisely torque controllable actuators, the system is capable of dynamic running and high-mobile climbing. Thanks to incorporated laser sensors and cameras, the robot can perceive its environment to continuously create maps and accurately localize. Based on this information, it can autonomously plan its navigation path and carefully select footholds while walking. Driven by our first real-world application, namely industrial inspection of oil and gas sites, ANYmal carries batteries for more than 2h autonomy and different sensory equipment such as optical and thermal cameras, microphones, gas-detection sensors and active lighting. With this payload, the machine weighs less than 30kg and can hence be easily transported and deployed by a single operator.Robot ANYmal Dancing to Live Music Inspektor ANYmal Nature’s Bounty: What You Need To Know About Harvesting Rainwater by Anna Kucirkova Connect For Water At one time, no one could have imagined arguments over who owns the rains that soak the earth. But that’s part of what’s been happening with the universal, natural resource of rainwater. Rainwater is free and eco-friendly. Utilizing it helps owners cut the cost of utility bills. It’s hard to imagine anything worth arguing about. What is rainwater “harvesting”? Harvesting is simply another name for capturing and collecting rainwater so the water ends up in some type of storage container, either large or small. Most commonly, rain is collected from the rooftop of a building or other surface runoff. The area from which water is collected is called the “catchment.” Rain then moves downward through gutters or pipes to a holding area. The water is used for specific objectives, rather than allowing rain to just slip away, evaporate, or seep into the ground. What are the advantages of rainwater harvesting? There are many advantages to harvesting rainwater! Since it’s eco-friendly, environmentalists advocate for responsible methods in collecting rainwater to lessen the impact humans take on the natural world. Water conservation efficiencies such as recently improved low-flow toilets, faucets, and showerheads have helped, but have probably reached their limits. The practice of rainwater harvesting conserves groundwater, cuts down on the amount of stormwater runoff which contributes to water pollution, reduces soil erosion, and can help decrease flooding in low-lying areas. Better control gained over the natural water supply can be especially helpful where water is restricted. Finding ways to use rainwater in California, for example, would greatly help the predicaments of that drought-prone area. One climatologist estimates that more than 80% of the region’s rainfall ends up literally going down the drain from urban areas in Southern California into the Pacific. Trillions of gallons of fresh rainwater end up in the ocean. Unfortunately, a great deal of time and a lot of money are needed to save significant amounts of rainwater on that scale. But, for average homeowners and homesteaders, rainwater collection is generally economical. Just one inch of rainfall on a 2,000 square foot area yields about 1200 gallons of water. Most home rainwater collection systems are simple, easy to maintain, and the upfront expense involved pays for itself over time. Because using rainwater cuts down on utility bills, homeowners find rainwater to be of particular benefit. The uses of rainwater vary, but it’s especially well-suited to applications other than drinking. For example, water used to wash clothes and vehicles, operate toilets, or water gardens needs no filtering or disinfecting. Harnessing rainwater is a perfect solution! Water collected from rain is actually healthier for landscape plant life than water you get from a faucet because there’s no chlorine in it. Rainwater is often less “hard” than publicly treated water, so less soap or detergent is needed, and there’s no need for a water softener. Some people do opt to use rainwater for human or animal consumption. When that’s the case, the safety of rainwater for drinking requires more careful preparation and monitoring. Extra filtering and regular testing are necessary to ensure there’s nothing harmful in the water. Are there disadvantages to harvesting rainwater? It requires some effort and routine maintenance. There are initial costs involved to set up a system that’s effective. Costs will be significantly higher if the water is going to be used for drinking since filtering and disinfecting after collection is crucial. Anyone with immune issues should be especially careful. Contamination and pathogens can be ongoing concerns. The water needs to be stored in appropriate opaque containers using methods that prevent algae. Rodents could find their way into storage areas. Insects, particularly mosquitoes, could potentially use the stored water as a breeding ground. There are possible issues with using a roof to collect rainwater. Asbestos roofs and lead flashing shouldn’t be used for harvesting water. Some roofing materials seep chemicals, or may have had chemical treatments to prevent moss from growing. Bird droppings, insects, and leaves can also potentially wash along with the rain into the containment system. There are ways to minimize these problems with careful research done ahead of time. It’s not quite as important if the water is never going to be consumed by humans or animals, but all aspects should be considered ahead of time in case stored water might ever be needed as a backup for drinking. Having a low-cost home filtration system like this one that quickly connects to a tap and removes all bacteria from water is an easy way to have peace of mind when you plan on drinking harvested rainwater. Unpredictable rainfall can be a disadvantage, too. Some areas simply don’t get enough rain to make installing a system practical. Areas that experience sudden high amounts of rainfall will only benefit if adequate storage space is provided. If containment is small and lots of rain appears all at once, storage runs out quickly and the opportunity is missed. What are the methods of collecting rain? Harvesting systems for rainwater are plentiful. It can be as simple as installing a rain barrel at the bottom of a downspout or as complicated as installation of underground tanks with high-efficiency filters and pumps. All types of rainwater harvesting system design have certain components in common. One group of engineers (Enduraplas.com) lists the 5 “must have” components this way: Collection Area – Your roof is an obvious component as you can’t harvest rainwater without a roof. This is the first point of contact for rainfall. The volume of water you harvest will depend on the surface area of your roof. Conveyance System – A Conveyance system is a fancy word for downspouts and gutters. The right piping and gutters means the water will run off the roof and into your tank without collecting unneeded debris. Other necessary components include mount hardware, brackets, and straps to fasten the gutters and downspout to the fascia and the wall. First Flush Diverter – When the first lot of rain hits your roof and runs into your gutters, the water often contains a lot of pollutants from the air and debris on the roof. The first flush diverter is a popular system that includes a valve that ensures the runoff from the first spell of rain is flushed out and doesn’t enter the system. Leaf Screens – Having the right filtration system in place is critical, especially if you are harvesting potable water that you’ll be drinking or using for your laundry. A sophisticated filtering system ensures harmful contaminants are removed. Leaf screens are installed along the gutter, in the downspouts and at the entrance of the water storage tank. Water Storage Tank – This is a key component. Your storage system may be above ground or below ground and include more than one tank. Some of the common materials used for rain harvesting tanks are poly, galvanized steel, and concrete. Can I build a home rainwater harvesting system for myself? Yes! Loads of ideas are available online. You can choose whatever method suits your budget and your needs. Take a look at 23 awesome ideas one self-sufficiency group has put together. They share all kinds of details about harvesting rain, including the types and composition of barrels for rainwater collection – ranging from very basic (and cheap) to very sophisticated, larger systems. Does legislation make it illegal to collect rainwater in some places? In a few locations, the government has begun to question ownership rights over rainwater. Although individual states can impose regulations, the Federal government doesn’t restrict rainwater harvesting. Most US citizens are able to collect rainwater without problems. Some states even offer incentives for doing it! Rainwater harvesting restrictions have been implemented in places like Colorado. Citizens there who harvest rain must use it on the property where it is collected, and then only for outdoor purposes such as lawn irrigation and gardening. State by state regulations are essential to research prior to implementing a system, so make sure to read up beforehand. For one Oregon man, rainwater became a legal issue in 2012. He was sentenced to 30 days in jail and fined, due to three reservoirs on his property where he collected and used rainwater. State water managers referred to “three illegal reservoirs” on his property that he would fill with rainwater and snow runoff. Oregon water laws state that all water is publicly owned. If someone wants to store any type of water on their property, they have to first get a permit from state water managers. In this man’s case, he claims he had the appropriate rainwater collection permit, but an Oregon administrative official maintains this landowner was actually diverting water (that should have ended up in streams) by building dams to make the ponds. What’s the future of rain harvesting? Populations continue to grow, and incidents of drought and low water levels are on the increase. It’s natural to contemplate offsetting those dilemmas by utilizing our resource from the sky. As more people recognize how much water can be easily captured and consider the savings involved, we’re likely to see the practice increase. Demands for clean water will keep increasing. Aquifers and groundwater are precious and need to be preserved whenever possible. Hopefully, state officials and individuals can come to an agreement on the highest priorities, and work together toward partnerships that benefit everyone. Futurist Portrait: Eric Haseltine Dr. Eric Haseltine is a neuroscientist and futurist who has applied a brain-centered approach to help organizations in aerospace, entertainment, healthcare, consumer products and national security transform and innovate. He is the author of Long Fuse, Big Bang: Achieving Long-Term Success Through Daily Victories. For five years, he wrote a monthly column on the brain for Discover magazine and is a frequent contributor to Psychology Today’s web site, where his popular blog on the brain has garnered over 800,000 views. Haseltine received the Distinguished Psychologist in Management Award from the Society of Psychologists in Management and has published 41 patents and patent applications in optics, media and entertainment technology. In 1992 he joined Walt Disney Imagineering to help found the Virtual Reality Studio, which he ultimately ran until his departure from Disney in 2002. When he left Disney, Haseltine was executive vice president of Imagineering and head of R&D for the entire Disney Corporation, including film, television, theme parks, Internet and consumer products. In the aftermath of 9/11, Eric joined the National Security Agency to run its Research Directorate. Three years later, he was promoted to associate of director of National Intelligence, where he oversaw all science and technology efforts within the United States Intelligence Community as well as fostering development innovative new technologies for countering cyber threats and terrorism. For his work on counter-terrorism technologies, he received the National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal in 2007. With a Ph.D. in physiological psychology, Haseltine specializes in applying neuroscience to business methodologies and new technologies, using the manner in which the human brain interacts with situations to improve and enhance organizational performance. Haseltine serves on numerous boards, and is an active consultant, speaker and writer. Over the past three years, he has focused heavily on developing innovation strategies and consumer applications for the Internet of Things, virtual reality and augmented reality. Haseltine continues to do basic research in neuroscience, with his most recent publications focusing on the mind-body health connection and exploitation of big-data to uncover subtle, but important trends in mental and physical health. He currently consults both for Hollywood studios and Intelligence agencies, helping organizations in both fields identify and capture big bang opportunities. The Nose in Front of You printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, July / August 2019, Issue 217
Content Ethics of AI: how should we treat rational, sentient robots – if they existed? by Hugh McLachlan Permaculture 101 The Future Now Show : Preferred Future with Glen Hiemstra Holographic circus News about the Future: Kernza® Grain: Future Carbon-neutral fuel made from sunlight and air / Solar Methanol Islands All-electric aircraft Alice Recommended Book: Mars: Our Future on the Red Planet by Leonard David, Ron Howard (Foreword) 200 kilometers in 8 minutes: ABB’s fast chargers power the e-mobility revolution Climate Change Success Story: Nutri2Cycle Futurist Portrait: Jamie Metzl Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about Peferred Future with Glen Hiemstra“At Futurist.com our primary emphasis has always been on creating the “preferred future.” Thus, we have developed methods to push alternative future scenarios toward a preferred scenario for the organization, the community, or whatever enterprise is planning for its future. This approach has been applied to community futures, to transportation, to future libraries, and to information technology organizations.” – Glen Hiemstra Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman Ethics of AI: how should we treat rational, sentient robots – if they existed? By Hugh McLachlan, Professor Emeritus of Applied Philosophy, Glasgow Caledonian University Imagine a world where humans co-existed with beings who, like us, had minds, thoughts, feelings, self-conscious awareness and the capacity to perform purposeful actions – but, unlike us, these beings had artificial mechanical bodies that could be switched on and off. That brave new world would throw up many issues as we came to terms with our robot counterparts as part and parcel of everyday life. How should we behave towards them? What moral duties would we have? What moral rights would such non-human persons have? Would it be morally permissible to try to thwart their emergence? Or would we have a duty to promote and foster their existence? Intriguing ethical questions such as these are raised in Ian McEwan’s recent novel, Machines Like Me, in which Alan Turing lives a long successful life and explosively propels the development of artificial intelligence (AI) that leads to the creation of “a manufactured human with plausible intelligence and looks, believable motion and shifts of expression”. As intellectual speculation, to consider the ethics of the treatment of rational, sentient machines is interesting. But two common arguments might suggest that the matter has no practical relevance and any ethical questions need not be taken seriously. The first is that such artificial people could not possibly exist. The second, often raised in the abortion debate, is that only persons who have living and independently viable human bodies are due moral respect and are worthy of moral consideration. As we shall see, these arguments are debatable. Mind, matter and emergent properties We might suppose that mental phenomena – consciousness, thoughts, feelings and so on, are somehow different from the stuff that constitutes computers and other machines manufactured by humans. And we might suppose that material brains and material machines are fundamentally different from conscious minds. But whether or not such suppositions are true – and I think that they are – it does not follow that sentient, consciously aware, artificially produced people are not possible. The French sociologist Emile Durkheim has argued very convincingly that we should beware of simplistic arguments in social science. Social phenomena, such as language, could not exist without the interaction of individual human beings with their particular psychological and biological features. But it does not follow that the resultant social phenomena – or “emergent properties” – can be completely and correctly explained solely in terms of these features. The same point about the possibility of emergent properties applies to all sciences. There could not be, for instance, computers of the sort I am now working at without the pieces of plastic, wires, silicon chips and so forth that make up the machine. Still, the operations of a computer cannot be explained solely in terms of the features of these individual components. Once these components are combined and interact in particular ways with electricity, a phenomenon of a new sort emerges: a computer. Similarly, once computers are combined and interact in particular ways, the internet is created. But clearly, the internet is a different sort of phenomenon from a tangible, physical computer. In a similar way, we need not suppose that minds are reducible to brains, molecules, atoms or any other physical elements that are required for them to function. They might be entities of a different sort that emerge from particular interactions and combinations of them. There’s no obvious logical reason why conscious awareness of the sort that human beings possess – the capacity to think and make decisions – could not appear in a human machine some day. Whether it is physically possible and, therefore likely to actually happen, is open to debate. Do machines deserve our consideration? It doesn’t seem controversial to say that we shouldn’t slander dead people or want only destroy the planet so that future generations of unborn people are unable to enjoy it as we have. Both groups are due moral respect and consideration. They should be regarded as potential objects of our moral duties and potential recipients of our benevolence. But the dead and the yet to be born do not have viable bodies of any sort – whether natural or artificial. To deny conscious persons moral respect and consideration on the grounds that they had artificial rather than natural bodies would seem to be arbitrary and whimsical. It would require a justification, and it is not obvious what that might be. One day, maybe sooner than we think, a consideration of the ethics of the treatment of rational, sentient machines might turn out to be more than an abstract academic exercise. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Permaculture 101 Geoff Lawton is a world renowned permaculture consultant, designer and teacher. He first took his Permaculture Design Certificate (PDC) Course in 1983 with Bill Mollison, widely considered the “father of permaculture.” Geoff has undertaken thousands of jobs teaching, consulting, designing, administering and implementing, in 6 continents and over 50 countries around the world. Clients have included private individuals, groups, communities, governments, aid organizations, non-government organisations and multinational companies, including: consultancy in the environmentally green, Masdar City in the United Arab Emirates development work from the Greening the Desert projects in Jordan rehydration strategies in the deserts of Hadramaut, Yemen housing projects for the Kurds in Iraq after the war, rebuilding an entire village with 53 straw bale houses In 1996 he was accredited with the Permaculture Community Services Award by the permaculture movement for services in Australia and around the world. He has currently educated over 15,000 students in Permaculture worldwide. These include graduates of the Permaculture Design Certificate (PDC) Course and courses focused on the practical design of sustainable soil, water, plant, animal, energy, structures, legal and economic systems. Geoff has established permaculture demonstration sites that function as education centres in all the world’s major climates — information on the success of these systems is networked through www.permacultureglobal.org. Geoff established the Permaculture Research Institute and the www.permaculturenews.org website to network mainframe information worldwide. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. July / August 2019 Preferred Future withGlen Hiemstra At Futurist.com our primary emphasis has always been on creating the “preferred future.” Thus, we have developed methods to push alternative future scenarios toward a preferred scenario for the organization, the community, or whatever enterprise is planning for its future. This approach has been applied to community futures, to transportation, to future libraries, and to information technology organizations.” – Glen Hiemstra The Future Now ShowCredits The Future Now Show Holographic circus The Challenge The Roncalli circus, founded in Germany in 1976 wanted to develop the traditional circus experience in an imaginative, creative way. Roncalli wanted to create 3D holographic images from bright, reliable, long-lasting projectors to fill the circus arena measuring 32 meters wide and 5 meters deep with 360° visibility for the entire audience. The Solution Roncalli’s agency TAG/TRAUM in cooperation with Bluebox selected Optoma as the best solution for this project and installed 11 ZU850 laser projectors for a mesmerizing holographic experience. Birger Wunderlich at Bluebox stated: “We have been using Optoma projectors for 6 years and have consistently had a very positive experience in price, performance and reliability. We needed a high contrast projector with great colors for the 3D effect and the ZU850’s 2,000,000:1 contrast is perfect for this project.” Boasting superior color performance and 360° projection capability, Optoma’s ZU850 model with innovative MultiColor laser technology has assisted in creating a phenomenal experience for Roncalli circus visitors. Thousands of visitors now enjoy a modern, entertaining twist on the circus experience. With 360° projection of horses galloping around the arena and elephants doing head stands, the Roncalli circus experience is not one to miss. The installation was completed using 11 BX-CTA03 long throw lenses allowing the ZU850 projectors to be positioned further away for ultimate flexibility. The Results Optoma’s ZU850 projectors bring the Roncalli circus to life, thrilling audiences all over Germany and Austria with entertaining holographic footage. Birger Wunderlich at Bluebox said: “We chose to install the Optoma ZU850 projectors because we needed a consistent light output over the duration of the installation and Optoma has delivered us this on an exceptional level.” Janine Kunze, an actress from Germany stated: “I thought the hologram at the beginning was really great. You actually remember the circus, especially Roncalli, with horses and dogs, they always used to be part of it, and I think they really included it well. Also, in the beginning when they told the story in a new kind of way.” Visitors of the Roncalli circus are left mesmerized and inspired by the effects produced by the Optoma projectors. Katja Burkard, a TV Presenter from Germany stated: “I find the hologram very contemporary – especially the fact that there are no animals involved is very good.” News about the Future Carbon-neutral fuel made from sunlight and air Carbon-neutral fuels are crucial for making aviation and maritime transport sustainable. ETH researchers have developed a solar plant to produce synthetic liquid fuels that release as much CO2 during their combustion as previously extracted from the air for their production. CO2 and water are extracted directly from ambient air and split using solar energy. This process yields syngas, a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is subsequently processed into kerosene, methanol or other hydrocarbons. These drop-in fuels are ready for use in the existing global transport infrastructure. Aldo Steinfeld, Professor of Renewable Energy Carriers at ETH Zurich, and his research group developed the technology. “This plant proves that carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels can be made from sunlight and air under real field conditions,” he explained. “The thermochemical process utilises the entire solar spectrum and proceeds at high temperatures, enabling fast reactions and high efficiency.” The research plant at the heart of Zurich advances ETH’s research towards sustainable fuels. Artificial Heart Solar Methanol Islands A team of researchers from Norway and Switzerland has put forward a proposal for ‘Solar Methanol Islands’ that convert atmospheric carbon dioxide to fuel. The islands would have to be clustered together to create large-scale facilities. If enough of these facilities were built, they could eventually offset the total global emissions from fossil fuels and thus help protect our climate from global warming. Large-scale, marine-based artificial islands of these solar farms could eventually yield zero net CO2 emissions – if enough of them are built. The so-called solar methanol islands would need to be placed in ocean areas where wave heights are less than seven meters tall and there is a low risk of hurricanes. Further, water depths must be less than 600 meters to properly moor the islands. Therefore, the most suitable locations are shorelines along the equator with plenty of sunshine and relatively small waves, for instance, Indonesia, northern Australia, and Brazil. They calculate that a cluster of 70 islands could potentially produce up to 1.75 tonnes of methanol per hour – which means 170,000 clusters need to be constructed to offset the emissions from long-haul transport. Moreover, they suggest using a mere 1.5 per cent of the world’s oceans for solar methanol farms could offset global fossil fuel emissions altogether. All-electric aircraft Alice The Eviation Alice is an electric aircraft under development by Eviation Aircraft of Israel. Designed to take 9 passengers up to 540–650 nmi (1,000–1,200 km) at a cruise speed of 240 kn (440 km/h). Alice will redefine regional transportation as an all-electric aircraft. Alice uses distributed propulsion with one main pusher propeller at the tail and two pusher propellers at the wingtips to reduce drag, create redundancy, and improve efficiency. Two versions of the Alice are planned. The initial model will be intended for air taxi operations, with energy stored in a lithium-ion battery, Eviation is building a prototype scheduled to fly in early 2019 and aims to certify it under the FAR Part 23 for IFR and known icing conditions. The second model will be an extended-range ER executive aircraft available by 2023 for $2.9 million, with a more powerful aluminum-air battery with a lithium-polymer buffer, a cabin pressurised to 1,200 m (4,000 ft) at FL 280, G5000 avionics, a 444 km/h (240 kn) cruise and 1,367 km (738 nmi) range. With 260 Wh/kg cells, the 900 kWh battery capacity (3,460 kg, 7,630 lb) gives the design a range of 540–650 nmi (1,000–1,200 km) at 240 knots and 10,000 ft (3,048 m). This is anticipated to increase as battery technology improves. The batteries have been tested to more than 1,000 cycles, equivalent to 3,000 flight hours, and will then require replacement at a cost of $250,000 – half of the direct operating cost, similar to a piston engine overhaul. Based on U.S. industrial electricity prices, the direct operating cost with nine passengers and two crew, flying at 240 kn (440 km/h), will be $200 per hour, which compares to $600–1,000 per hour for existing aircraft of similar purchase price, for operations on routes under 500 nmi (930 km). This includes piston- and turboprop-powered Cessna 402s, Pilatus PC-12 and Beechcraft King Airs. Eviation notes 45% of air routes fall within its 565 nm (1,050 km) range at 260 kt (482 km/h), or 55% of airline flights according to Flightglobal’s Cirium data. The electric drivetrain will have a higher voltage than current electrical systems. The 300-kW and 400-kW chargers will recharge after one hour of flight time in half an hour. Three 260 kW (350 hp) motors drive propellers mounted on the wingtips, located in the vortices to improve efficiency, and mounted on the tail. The unpressurized aircraft will have a flat lower fuselage. The Italian company Magnaghi Aeronautica will supply the landing gear and has already produced the gear for the similarly sized Piaggio P.180 Avanti. It will be built with existing technology, including a composite airframe, distributed propulsion with Siemens electric engines and Honeywell flight control systems, including automatic landing. Mobile charging stations will give one hour of flight per half-hour of charge. At 3,700kg (8,200lb), the battery accounts for 60% of the aircraft take-off weight. The first all-electric zero-emission regional airplane.The future is electric! Eviation will debut the Alice at the Paris Air Show in June 2019. Recommended Book Mars: Our Future on the Red Planetby Leonard David, Ron Howard (Foreword) An inspiring exploration of the establishment of humans on Mars — tying into the National Geographic television documentary series Mars. The next frontier in space exploration is Mars, the Red Planet — and human habitation of Mars isn’t much farther off. In October 2015, NASA declared Mars “an achievable goal”; that same season, Ridley Scott and Matt Damon’s The Martian drew crowds into theaters, grossing over $200 million. Now the National Geographic Channel fast forwards years ahead with Mars, a six-part series documenting and dramatizing the next twenty-five years as humans land on and learn to live on Mars. Following on the visionary success of Buzz Aldrin’s Mission to Mars and the visual glory of Marc Kaufman’s Mars Up Close, this companion book to the Nat Geo series shows the science behind the mission and the challenges awaiting those brave individuals. The book combines science, technology, and storytelling, offering what only National Geographic can create. Clear scientific explanations make the Mars experience real and provide amazing visuals to savor and return to again and again. 200 kilometers in 8 minutes: ABB’s fast chargers power the e-mobility revolution World’s fastest e-vehicle charger strengthens ABB’s leadership in sustainable mobility Zurich, Switzerland | 2018-06-08 What started as a small start-up in one of ABB’s business units almost a decade ago is now an integral part of the company’s innovative push for sustainable mobility. One innovation after another is coming from ABB developments in electric-vehicle (EV) chargers. Today, ABB’s breakthrough e-mobility technologies are front-page news. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto visited the ABB exhibit at the Hanover Fair to see the newly launched Terra High Power fast-charging station and hear about its impact on sustainable transport from ABB CEO Ulrich Spiesshofer. The Terra HP is the world’s fastest EV-charger, adding up to 200 kilometers of range to an electric vehicle in just eight minutes. With the number of electric vehicles on the road rising, the global demand for powerful and energy efficient vehicle charging stations is ever increasing. ABB EV-chargers, like the Terra High Power charger, are the driving force behind the efforts of nations to reach sustainability targets and charges have become a critical part of sustainability policies. With more than 7,000 DC fast charging stations installed in 60 countries, ABB is a global leader in that segment. The technology behind e-mobility is truly coming of age, which is also shown in ABB’s partnership with the ABB FIA Formula E Championship. ABB is bringing its name, innovation and technology leadership to the first fully electric motor sport series. The ABB FIA Formula E Championship perfectly supports ABB’s belief that we can run the world without consuming the earth. The series’ next race will be in Zurich on June 10. ABB FIA Formula E Championship race driver Sébastien Buemi drives through Zurich The ascendance of sustainable mobility and the charging infrastructure required to keep electric vehicles moving is evident by the increasing number of ABB EV charging projects around the world. German energy supplier EnBW alone has 185 EV fast chargers on German motorways and in April, ABB was selected to supply its Terra HP charging stations as part of the biggest electric vehicle infrastructure project to date in the United States. The chargers were selected for deployment by Electrify America, which plans to place hundreds of charging stations within and around 17 metropolitan areas and along multiple nationwide highway corridors. The chargers are an important element, for example, in Iceland’s ambitious plan to increase the adoption of renewable energy. While fossil fuels still account for 20 percent of overall energy usage, the Icelandic government has put in place a state-financed incentive program to increase the use of electric vehicles. It is already having an impact — today there are more than 6,000 e-cars, compared to a scant 90 in 2014. To power these e-cars, more than 20 ABB fast charging stations have been installed along Iceland’s famous Route 1, the 1,300+ kilometer road that’s the country’s main highway and its logistical backbone. ABB has also delivered six 350kW fast chargers in Switzerland, the first with liquid-cooled cables in Europe, as part of the IONITY initiative to open highway “fuel” stations of the future at 400 sites across Europe by mid-2019. IONITY is a company joint venture of BMW Group, Daimler AG, Ford Motor Company and VW Group, with Audi and Porsche. This first site in Switzerland was planned, engineered and built by Alpiq, a leading energy company in Switzerland and the largest energy service provider with focus on European markets. ABB Ability™ technology guarantees that the chargers are operational 24/7. Remote digital connectivity enables continuous monitoring of the device from any location. This gives access to data in real time for the remote monitoring and proactive control of the operational and technical status of the charging stations. ABB’s charging technologies for electric cars, buses and trucks, as well as solutions for the electrification of ships, railways and cableways, firmly establishes it as a global champion in e-mobility and sustainable transportation. It is playing a crucial role in the fight against climate change as e-mobility begins to replace fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, which contribute to global warming. ABB’s fast-chargers help to pave the way for a quick adoption of electric vehicles, which are increasingly becoming more attractive and less expensive to buy and maintain. As policy makers across the world promote sustainable transport solutions ABB will continue to be at the forefront to develop a greener future for all. Climate Change Success Story: Nutri2Cycle Smarter farming to cut pollution and improve efficiency The NUTRI2CYCLE project recognizes Europe’s need to tackle the current nutrient flow gaps in European agro-ecosystems in order to decrease environmental pollution, safeguard the quality of life and improve EU independence for energy and nutrients. A genuine approach to close nutrient loops Nutri2Cycle will help closing nutrient loops with a genuine approach that will consist of: Identifying the most efficient types of farm systems in Europe using a common methodology. Defining indicators to monitor and demonstrate the environmental advantages of more efficient, closed nutrient loops in a comprehensive way. Establishing innovative business cases at pilot scale (12-16 pilots) that will act as a light-house example for effective out-scaling. ObjectivesFrom farmers to end-users: targeting the whole value chain Nutri2Cycle will interact with all actors influencing nutrient cycles to: Create more efficient and sustainable farm business models for nutrient recovery and recycling. Spread the results at regional, national and European level throughout a comprehensive network of regional operational groups, National Task Forces and European stakeholders. Assess how the products obtained through the identified business models can aim for labelling and reach end-users. Provide scientific support on effective regulatory frameworks to reduce emissions and increase self-reliance of Europe for food, energy and nutrients in the next century. FocusThe research of Nutri2Cycle will focus on three pillars: agro-processing animal husbandry plant processing The recovery of nitrogen and phosphorus in farms can be significantly improved by creating better synergies between animal breeding and crop production. These improvements will facilitate the return of carbon to soil and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which could be combined with the production of energy for self-consumption on-farm. Futurist Portrait: Jamie Metzl Jamie Metzl is a technology futurist and geopolitical expert, novelist, entrepreneur, media commentator, and Senior Fellow of the Atlantic Council. In February 2019, he was appointed to the World Health Organization expert advisory committee on developing global standards for the governance and oversight of human genome editing. Jamie previously served in the U.S. National Security Council, State Department, Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a Human Rights Officer for the United Nations in Cambodia. He is a former Partner of a New York-based global investment firm, serves on the Advisory Council to Walmart’s Future of Retail Policy Lab, is a faculty member for Singularity University’s Exponential Medicine conference, was Chief Strategy Officer for a biotechnology company, and ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House of Representatives from Missouri’s Fifth Congressional District in Kansas City in 2004. Jamie has served as an election monitor in Afghanistan and the Philippines, advised the government of North Korea on the establishment of Special Economic Zones, and is the Honorary Ambassador to North America of the Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy. Jamie appears regularly on national and international media discussing Asian economic and political issues and his syndicated columns and other writing on Asian affairs, genetics, virtual reality, and other topics are featured regularly in publications around the world. He is the author of a history of the Cambodian genocide, the historical novel The Depths of the Sea, and the genetics thrillers Genesis Code and Eternal Sonata. His non-fiction book Hacking Darwin: Genetic Revolution and the Future of Humanity, published by Sourcebooks, can be purchased here. A founder and Co-Chair of the national security organization Partnership for a Secure America, Jamie is a board member of the International Center for Transitional Justice and the American University in Mongolia, and a member of the Advisory Board of the Brandeis International Center for Ethics, Justice, and Public Life. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations is a former White House Fellow and Aspen Institute Crown Fellow. Jamie holds a Ph.D. in Asian history from Oxford, a JD from Harvard Law School, and is a magna cum laude, Phi Beta Kappa printable version