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Club of Amsterdam Journal, July 2011, Issue 140
Content The Indian Rupee-USD Exchange Rate – Will the Rupee Depreciate? New Video The Blue Brain Project Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Fast fashion meets luxury labels Recommended Book Zeitgeist: Moving Forward Futurist Portrait: Syd Mead Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal.The Club of Amsterdam wishes you a great summer break!Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief The Indian Rupee – U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate. Will the Rupee depreciate? May 2011 – A White Paper by Evalueserve Special issue provided for the Club of Amsterdam. Authors: Ashutosh Gupta is the Vice President of Investment Research and Chief Transition Officer at Evalueserve. Surbhee Sirohi is a Manager in the Investment Research group at Evalueserve. Executive SummaryDuring the last decade, among major economies, India has achieved consistently impressive growth, second only to China. In the first half of fiscal 2010-11, the Indian economy grew at a healthy rate of 8.9%, and the majority of global growth going forward is expected to be driven by developing countries, specifically India and China. India is home to a vibrant services economy and a hotbed of outsourcing. Its economy has become increasingly interlinked with global markets as trade has flourished. The USD-INR exchange rate is an important indicator of investor sentiment and can significantly impact not only the fortunes of individual firms and sectors but also the government. While this exchange rate has been very stable overall for the last five years (44.86 on April 24th, 2006 and 44.34 on April 15th, 2011), there have been periods of significant volatility. For example, USD-INR moved from 40 to 51.50 from March 2008 to March 2009. During the past 12 months, it has traded in a relatively narrow range, between 47.33 and 43.99. We believe there is a significant downside risk to USD-INR exchange rate and this paper will explore some of the risk factors behind this: Inflation is at an all-time high; the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 10.88% in 2009 and by 13.19% in 2010. The monetary policy changes undertaken by the government to control inflation have been ineffective. We believe this is because inflation is being driven primarily by structural supply side challenges such as lack of agricultural infrastructure, low crop yields, and the absence of organized retail. India is one of the fastest growing economies and is considered a favored destination for investment. Nevertheless, it witnessed a decline in Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in 2010, making it the only BRIC country where this happened. This is troubling as FDI is an important indicator of investors’ faith in a country’s long-term prospects. Foreign Institutional Investment (FII), which provides short-term portfolio investment money inflows, has been buoyant, but these funds are volatile by nature and are prone to “flight risk” at the first signs of trouble, something that happened during the financial crisis. Recent widespread corruption scandals have reinforced the negative perception of governance deficit in India and raised doubts about the availability of a level playing field for businesses. This, combined with regulatory and tax uncertainty, will deter many foreign investors. For example, several global firms who invested in India’s telecom sector have had to write off billions of dollars of their investments. Another major source of foreign currency inflows to India is remittances; India received USD 55 billion in remittances during 2010. This money limits the country’s current account deficit. The Middle East accounts for a major share of this inflow and the current turmoil in the region may negatively influence it as Indians abroad leave the region due to security concerns. Remittances from countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE, where the strife has not spread, could also experience a decline as unemployment in these nation rises. The government finances are in a bad shape and the combined central and state government deficit has stubbornly stayed around 10% of GDP. Experts believe that oil prices will remain high in the near future. This is a major concern for India as it imports about 70% of its oil and efforts to increase the production capacity of petroleum and natural gas domestically have not been very successful. India’s current deficit is about 3%, the level it reached during the crisis of the 1990s. A current account deficit is not bad by itself for a growing economy if it helps build important long-term productive assets. However, in India’s case it is due to insufficient savings, especially by the government. This does not bode well for the economy. Moreover, given India’s rising import bill and threat to remittances, the deficit will remain high in the near future, creating pressure on the Indian Rupee. The United States (US) economy seems to be on the path to recovery. It is very likely that the improving US economy will draw more funds at the expense of emerging countries. This can already be seen in the FDI inflows, which increased by 43% in 2010. [ … ]ConclusionAfter studying the various demand and supply factors, we have arrived at three likely scenarios: First Scenario – Rupee DepreciationThis scenario is likely to occur if oil prices continue to rise or if FII money “exits” because of a crisis of confidence. Based on past evidence, even a relatively orderly outflow of USD 15 billion of FII money over a year could result in the INR depreciating by 22-30%. This would imply an exchange rate in the range of INR 55-60 to USD 1. It could get even worse if the flight of capital were to take place over a shorter period, which would cause massive concern among businesses and the government, since it would imply a higher cost of petrol, diesel, and petroleum products in India, leading to even higher food prices and Consumer Price Index. The current account deficit would balloon and the rising inflation could create a vicious cycle. Second Scenario – Rupee AppreciationThis scenario is likely to occur if the FII money continues to flow in and FDI levels improve. The stock markets will climb and there will be a rise in demand for INR. An appreciating Rupee will make imports cheaper and lead to better managed deficits and inflation. It must be pointed out that Rupee appreciation would erode India’s cost advantage in the export sector and negatively affect the booming ITES sector as well as the textile sector and this in turn would invite government intervention. This is what happened just before the onset of the 2008 financial crisis when the USD-INR touched 39 and the Indian government repeatedly intervened in the currency markets to halt the appreciation of the Rupee. Third Scenario – Status QuoThis is the most benign scenario. The exchange rate continues to move in its current range and appreciates over the long term as the economy continues to develop and India strengthens its position in the global markets. The government’s efforts to improve agricultural infrastructure bear fruit in the longer term and inflation declines. The rate fluctuations do not cause any major disruption in the trade environment. According to our analysis, during the next two years the probability of the first scenario (depreciation of Indian Rupee by 20%) is the highest (about 50%) while the other two scenarios have an equal probability of approximately 25% each. In other words, there will be pressure on the Rupee unless steps are taken to fix structural issues described in this article. The Indian government and RBI are well aware of this risk and are definitely hoping for the third scenario, in which India essentially grows its way out of trouble over a couple of decades and where they only have to intervene occasionally to smoothen out excess volatility. As Subir Gokarn, a deputy governor of RBI recently said, “Intervention is not costless, it simply transfers the cost from one constituency of the economy to another.” You can download the White Paper click here About EvalueserveEvalueserve is a global specialist for knowledge processes with a global team of over 2,200 professionals. As a trusted partner, Evalueserve analyzes, improves and executes knowledge-intensive processes and leverages its proprietary technology to enhance efficiency and effectiveness. Evalueserve has dedicated on-site teams and scalable global knowledge centers in Chile, China, India and Romania, which provide multi-time zone and multi-lingual services. Evalueserve’s knowledge solutions include customized research and analytics services for leading-edge companies worldwide. By working with Evalueserve, clients benefit from higher productivity, improved quality, freed-up management time, better access to knowledge and information across all parts of the company, and adding new capabilities to their organization. New Video the future of European Democracy Thursday, June 23, 2011 Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting GroupDemocracy is dead, as we know it! The Blue Brain Project Reconstructing the brain piece by piece and building a virtual brain in a supercomputer — these are some of the goals of the Blue Brain Project. The virtual brain will be an exceptional tool giving neuroscientists a new understanding of the brain and a better understanding of neurological diseases. The Blue Brain project began in 2005 with an agreement between the EPFL and IBM, which supplied the BlueGene/L supercomputer acquired by EPFL to build the virtual brain. The computing power needed is considerable. Each simulated neuron requires the equivalent of a laptop computer. A model of the whole brain would have billions. Supercomputing technology is rapidly approaching a level where simulating the whole brain becomes a concrete possibility. As a first step, the project succeeded in simulating a rat cortical column. This neuronal network, the size of a pinhead, recurs repeatedly in the cortex. A rat’s brain has about 100,000 columns of in the order of 10,000 neurons each. In humans, the numbers are dizzying — a human cortex may have as many as two million columns, each having in the order of 100,000 neurons each. Blue Brain is a resounding success. In five years of work, Henry Markram’s team has perfected a facility that can create realistic models of one of the brain’s essential building blocks. This process is entirely data driven and essentially automatically executed on the supercomputer. Meanwhile the generated models show a behavior already observed in years of neuroscientific experiments. These models will be basic building blocks for larger scale models leading towards a complete virtual brain. [ … ] ModelingThe Builder ConceptAll mathematical models used in Blue Brain virtual experiments are created by a Builder.This isa software application that generates a computer model of a particular brain structure. Models are based on the experimental data collected and organized in the first two steps of the Blue Brain workflow and on the mathematical abstractions created in the third step. The Blue Brain modeling strategy requires the construction of models representing different levels of brain organization. Each of these models requires its own builder. Below we describe the goals, characteristics and status of individual builders. Cell BuilderThe purpose of the Cell Builder is to build models of individual nerve cells.The nerve cells of the mammalian brain display great diversity in their morphology and electrical behavior. Later in this report, we suggest that this diversity makes a crucial contribution to the robust principles governing the construction and dynamic behavior of neural circuits.The design of the Cell Builder is based on a strategy of incorporating the maximum possible number of biophysical constraints from experimental data and from the results of Predictive Reverse Engineering. The remaining parameters are optimized under these constraints. Microcircuit BuilderThe purpose of the Microcircuit Builder is to build models of neural microcircuits in any part of the brain.The integration and processing of information by the mammalian brain depends in an essential way on structured interconnectivity among nerve cells. At the microcircuit level, circuits appear to be determined primarily by the composition of a given area of the brain in terms of different types of cell, by the positions of these cells, and by their respective morphologies. The Microcircuit Builder uses this data to faithfully model neuronal microcircuitry. Mesocircuit BuilderThe purpose of the Mesocircuit Builder is to model mesoscale neural circuitry i.e. circuits spanning several neocortical columns, modules or microcircuits.Every region of the neocortex contains multiple replicas of neuromicrocircuits, which are basically similar but variable in their details, allowing diversification and specialization. These microcircuits are highly interconnected.The Mesocircuit Builder, currently in the exploration phase, will make it possible to build models of the connections among microcircuits. The planned models will include experimental data on projections formed by neurons within a brain area (e.g. S1 of the somatosensory cortex), models of mid-range fiber growth, models of the ways fibers penetrate a microcircuit, and the detection of touches between incoming fibers and the rest of the circuit. Experiment BuilderThe primary purpose of the Experiment Builder is to create explicit descriptions of experimental environments and protocols allowing their replication in silico.The Experiment Builder will include features sup¬porting the automated extraction of conditions and protocols from literature, the design of new protocols, and the use of these protocols in experiments based on Blue Brain models. In brief, the Experiment Builder will become a primary control interface for the Blue Brain Facility. What’s next?The ultimate goals of brain simulation are to answer age-old questions about how we think, remember, learn and feel, to discover new treatments for the scourge of brain disease and to build new computer technologies that exploit what we have learned about the brain. Blue Brain is a first step in this direction. But we need to go further. This is why Blue Brain recently joined with other 12 partners to propose the Human Brain Project – a very large 10 year project that will pursue precisely these aims. The new grouping has just been awarded a Euro 1.4 million European grant to formulate a detailed proposal. The EU decision to launch the project is expected in 2012.text & images ©BBP/EPFL Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 13: No more tool, no more processes, no more ruling, no more treaties.March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Driving a robot from Space StationMeet Justin, an android who will soon be controlled remotely by the astronauts in ESA’s Columbus laboratory on the International Space Station.To help turn robotics and telepresence into a standard tool for space missions, ESA is linking the Space Station and Earth for remotely controlling terrestrial robotic experiments from the orbital outpost.This Meteron (Multi-purpose End-To-End Robotic Operations Network) initiative is a testbed for future missions to the Moon, Mars and other celestial bodies. In the first Meteron tests, the Station astronauts will operate ESA’s Eurobot prototype from a computer equipped with special screens and a joystick.This prototype is a four-wheel rover with two arms, an advanced navigation system, cameras and sensors that has been under testing since 2008 at the Agency’s ESTEC space research and technology centre in the Netherlands.In the next phase, the engineers will allow astronauts to control a robot with the sense of force and ‘touch’. It can be connected to robots like Justin, developed by the DLR German Aerospace Center.“With these senses, the astronauts will have a real feeling of the forces that the arms of the robots are experiencing in their environment,” explains André Schiele, in charge of ESA’s Telerobotics & Haptics Laboratory. Kite PowerCurrent wind power generation relies on rigid supporting structures and is limited to altitudes up to 200 m. Wind at higher altitudes is significantly stronger and more persistent. To access this major potential of renewable energy, the Kite Power research group is developing a technology based on inflatable membrane wings which are tethered to a motor/generator unit on the ground. The present kite power demonstrator system operates a 25 or 50 m2 kite in periodic pumping mode to generate 20 kW mechanical reel-out power. Systematic testing and improvement has resulted in more than 100 completed pumping cycles since January 2010, indicating a continuous increase in cycle efficiency. Fast fashion meets luxury labels Take a stroll down London’s Old Bond Street or Milan’s Via Montenapoleone and you will see the latest offerings of Chanel and Gucci. Hop over to Oxford Street or Corso Vittorio Emanuele, and you will discover the window displays of H&M and Zara are exhibiting pretty much the same designs. Guess which is flush with cash? INSEAD Assistant Professor, Frederic Godart, has some surprising predictions as to which way this lucrative market is heading. Recommended Book Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking By Malcolm Gladwell Blink is about the first two seconds of looking–the decisive glance that knows in an instant. Gladwell, the best-selling author of The Tipping Point, campaigns for snap judgments and mind reading with a gift for translating research into splendid storytelling. Building his case with scenes from a marriage, heart attack triage, speed dating, choking on the golf course, selling cars, and military maneuvers, he persuades readers to think small and focus on the meaning of “thin slices” of behavior. The key is to rely on our “adaptive unconscious” – a 24/7 mental valet – that provides us with instant and sophisticated information to warn of danger, read a stranger, or react to a new idea. Gladwell includes caveats about leaping to conclusions: marketers can manipulate our first impressions, high arousal moments make us “mind blind,” focusing on the wrong cue leaves us vulnerable to “the Warren Harding Effect” (i.e., voting for a handsome but hapless president). In a provocative chapter that exposes the “dark side of blink,” he illuminates the failure of rapid cognition in the tragic stakeout and murder of Amadou Diallo in the Bronx. He underlines studies about autism, facial reading and cardio uptick to urge training that enhances high-stakes decision-making. In this brilliant, cage-rattling book, one can only wish for a thicker slice of Gladwell’s ideas about what Blink Camp might look like. – Barbara Mackoff Zeitgeist: Moving Forward Zeitgeist: Moving Forward, by director Peter Joseph, is a feature length documentary work which will present a case for a needed transition out of the current socioeconomic monetary paradigm which governs the entire world society. This subject matter will transcend the issues of cultural relativism and traditional ideology and move to relate the core, empirical “life ground” attributes of human and social survival, extrapolating those immutable natural laws into a new sustainable social paradigm called a “Resource-Based Economy”. Michio Kaku and Carl Sagan are not affiliated with the Zeitgeist Movement. This is the Official Online (Youtube) Release of “Zeitgeist: Moving Forward” by Peter Joseph. 2 hr and 42 min On Jan. 15th, 2011, “Zeitgeist: Moving Forward” was released theatrically to sold out crowds in 60 countries; 31 languages; 295 cities and 341 Venues. It has been noted as the largest non-profit independent film release in history. Futurist Portrait: Syd Mead “There are more people in the world who make things than there are people who think of things to make.” – Syd Mead Sydney Jay Mead was born in St. Paul Minnesota, July 18th, 1933 but spent only a few years there before moving to what would be the second of many homes throughout the western United States prior to graduating from High School in Colorado Springs, Colorado in 1951. After serving a three year enlistment in the U.S. Army, Syd Mead continued on to the Art Center School in Los Angeles, (now the Art Center College of Design, Pasadena) where he graduated with great distinction in June of 1959. He was immediately recruited by the Ford Motor Company’s Advanced Styling Studio under the management of Elwood Engle which he left after 2 years in order to accept a variety of assignments to illustrate books and catalogues for large corporate entities such as United State Steel, Celanese, Allis Chalmers and Atlas Cement. In 1970, he launched Syd Mead Inc. in Detroit, Michigan to accommodate the high caliber of offers he received, most notably the PHILIPS ELECTRONICS. As the principal of his newly formed corporation in the 1970’s, Syd Mead spent about a third of his time in Europe primarily to provide designs and illustrations for Philips of Holland. Together with his roster of major American clients, he continues to make his creative mark, internationally. Throughout the 1970’s and 1980’s, Syd Mead, Inc. provided architectural renderings both interior and exterior, for such clients as Intercontinental Hotels, 3D International, Harwood Taylor & Associates, Don Ghia, and Gresham & Smith, to mention a few. His architectural clients have recently expanded to include the New York firm of Philip Koether Architects for which he designed the interior of a Manhattan eatery. Design activity accelerated after the corporate and personal move to California in 1975. In 1979, projects began to include work with most major studios, on such feature films as Star Trek: The Motion Picture, followed by, Bladerunner, TRON, 2010, Short Circuit, Aliens, Time Cop, Johnny Mnemonic, and most recently, “Mission Impossible-3” starring Tom Cruise for director J.J. Abrams. Beginning in 1983, Syd began to develop close working relationships with a number of major Japanese corporate clients, including; Sony, Minolta, Dentsu, Dyflex, Tiger, Seibu, Mitsukoshi, Bandai, NHK and Honda as well as contributing to two Japanese film projects, The New Yamato and Crises 2050. In the 1990s’, Syd supplied designs for two Japanese toy icons, “The New Yamato” and all eight robot characters in the new Turn-A Gundam mobile suite series which were also seen as characters in Television shows. With transportation design as his first love, Syd Mead seldom misses an opportunity to provide his unique blend of futurism and believability to those projects consisting of a vehicle that travels from “A” to ‘B”. Whether it be designing solar powered unicycles, show cars, luxury yachts, cruise ships, or the interiors of private 747’s, each receives the same attention to detail within a perfectly designed scenario. This combination has become a Syd Mead trademark and has been seen in everything from concept cars for Ford Motor Company to futuristic “Hypervans” which have been the subject of his latest full color illustrations. Syd Mead continues an active schedule of one man shows, which started with an invitation to exhibit at Documenta 6, Kassel, West Germany in 1973. His work has since been exhibited in Japan, Italy, California, and Spain. In 1983 in response to an in invitation from Chrysler Corporation to be a guest speaker to their design staff, Syd Mead assembled a selection of slides to visually enhance his lecture. The resulting presentation was a resounding success and has since been expanded and enhanced with computer generated imagery specifically assembled at the requests of such clients as Disney, Carnegie Mellon University, Purdue, Pratt University, the Society of Illustrators., and many others both academic and corporate around the world. In March of 2010, Syd completed a four city tour in Australia to capacity audiences at each venue. Always an advocate of new technologies, Syd Mead has expanded his horizons to include computer illustrations and graphics by mastering a variety of Softwares. Beginning with the official poster of the 1991 Concours d’Elegance “Eyes on the Classics” in Detroit, Michigan, Mr. Mead has attempted to utilize the latest in available techniques to their best advantage. In 1993, a digital gallery comprised of 50 examples of his art with interface screens designed by Syd Mead became one of the first CD ROM’s released in Japan in 1992 and in 2004 in response to many requests, cooperated with the Gnomon School of Visual Effects to produce a 4 volume, “How To” DVD series titled, “TECHNIQUES OF SYD MEAD” which continues to be sought after by designers around the world. His one man show, “Cavalcade to the Crimson Castle” consisting of 114 original paintings and illustrations, enjoyed a three month showing at the Center for the Arts in San Francisco in the Fall of 1996. The highlight of the show turned out to be Syd’s presentation and lecture attracted an audience that exceeded the available capacity of the auditorium. Subsequent personal appearances at schools across the country have attracted record numbers. A touring exhibition of his work is now in the planning stage to mark the 40th anniversary of Syd Mead Inc. In February 1998, Syd Mead relocated his studio to Pasadena, California, where he continues to be involved in a variety of design projects. He recently completed work on a documentary of his career with director Joaquin Montalvan, “VISUAL FUTURIST”, was released in May of 2007 on DVD and is available through the virtual Oblagon bookstore on the Syd Mead official webpage WWW.SYDMEAD.COM . Mead attributes success in an astonishing range of creative activities to the premise that imagination…the idea, supersedes technique. “There are more people in the world who make things than there are people who think of things to make.” 2019: A Future Imagined HD by Jim HunterVisual Futurist Syd Mead reflects upon the nature of creativity and how it drives the future in 1920×1080 progressive high definition. Agenda Past Season Events 2010/2011 Oct 14, 2010: the future of HackingNov 25, 2010: the future of HappinessJan 20, 2011: the future of Financial InfrastructureFeb 17, 2011: the future of ServicesMarch 17, 2011: the future of ShellApril 14, 2011: the future of the Human MindMay 19, 2011: the future of SingularityJune 23, 2011: the future of European Democracy
Club of Amsterdam Journal, September 2011, Issue 141
Content Trend Report for Luxury Interiors 2011 and 2012 Next Event Anisotropia Club of Amsterdam blogNews about the Future Yacht Islands Recommended Book The Indus EquationEnduring Legacies: Slavery, Serfdom and Prison in America, Europe and Russia Futurist Portrait: Dave Evans Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Our living room may be one of our most important surroundings. It is were we relax and feel at home. Yet many of us let chance, coincidence and gifts from others decide how it looks. Others follow strict rules or theories. How important is your living room? How do you shape it? How will this change in the near future? …. interested in knowing more and sharing thoughts and ideas …. join us at the event about the future of the Living Room – Thursday, 13 October! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Trend Report for Luxury Interiors 2011 and 2012 Trend Report for Luxury Interiors 2011 and 2012By Laura K Pollard Interior Trends for 2011 and beyond: A consumer report and 4 Themes for inspiration: Sober Luxury Mixed Up Homelife Utility Revival Next Event the future of the Living RoomExperience interior design Thursday, October 13, 2011Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Location: Museum Geelvinck, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS AmsterdamThe conference language is English. In collaboration with Museum Geelvinck The speakers and topics are Kees Spanjers, Past-President, European Council of Interior Architects‘Venustas, Solacia, Durabilitas’, a house is not a home Desiree Kerklaan, BDes Spatial designerFurniture based on biomimicry ideas Rogier van der Heide, Vice President and Chief Design Officer, Philips LightingFeel what Light can Do Moderated by Job Romijn, bedenker, brainstormer, problem solver, artist. Anisotropia By Christoph Klemmt, Orproject Anisotropia, a proposal for Busan Opera House by Orproject Orproject is a London based architecture and design practice set up in 2006 by Francesco Brenta, Christoph Klemmt, Laura Micalizzi and Rajat Sodhi. Our work explores advanced geometries with an ecologic agenda, the integration of natural elements into the design results in an eco-narrative unfolding into the three dimensional space. Our projects range from experimental small scale installations to large real estate developments. We produce high end luxury design, covering all aspects of a project from design and planning to practical completion. Our work has been published and exhibited widely, amongst others for the London Architecture Festival, the Furniture Fair in Milan and at Palais de Tokyo in Paris. A FROZEN PIECE OF MUSIC Anisotropia, the design for the new Busan Opera House, is based on Klavierstück I, a composition for piano by Orproject director Christoph Klemmt. It is based on a twelve tone row which is repeated and altered by the different voices, in order to create complex rhythmic patterns. Anisotropia becomes the physical manifestation of Klavierstück I, a frozen piece of music. The design for the Busan Opera House is based on a simple strip morphology instead of a twelve tone row, which creates the facade, structure and rhythm within itself, its repetition happening in space instead of time. Layers of the strips form the façade structure, and the shifting and alteration of these patterns results in the formation of complex architectural rhythms which are used to control the light, view and shading properties of the façade. STRUCTURE AND LIGHT The proposed façade structure becomes the physical manifestation of Klavierstück I. Instead of on a twelve tone row, it is based on a strip morphology made from curved steel sections that creates the facade, structure and rhythm within itself. The repetition of the lamella happens in space, instead of the repetition in time of the twelve tone row. Parallel layers of the strips form the façade structure, and the alteration of its patterns results in architectural rhythms which are used to control the light, view and shading properties of the façade.The façade structure starts to flow from the sea, where its different layers are aligned and appear to be one. Then slowly the layers start to repeat at different intervals, resulting in a shift between them, the alignment breaks up, and a varied field of the façade rhythms begins to emerge. The façade structure is altered in the length of its repetition, but also the orientation and the depth of the extrusions are manipulated in order to control the view and light, depending on the programmatic requirements on the inside of the building. The flow of the façade layers is influenced by the programs which they enclose. As an effect of this the layers split up at certain points, and after forming a coherent system with the overlay of its rhythms, the individual layers separate and their individual patterns become visible. FLOW The positioning of the façade walls has been developed according to a custom written flow simulation. The algorithm describes a flow that is influenced and altered by a set of deflectors, which each act according to the magnitude of their attraction and the area of their influence. The distribution of the programmatic elements on the site is used as the deflector set that guides the flow of the rhythm lines which originate from the sea. On their way towards the city, the lines flow around the building elements such as the theatre and auditoriums, splitting up and being diverted by the deflectors.In the musical composition the different voices converge again. For the building, the separate façade layers spread out towards the city, form the structure for a bridge, and then slowly fade out and disappear back into the ground. PROJECT CREDITS Title: AnisotropiaArchitects: OrprojectDesign Team: Ho-Ping Hsia, Christoph Klemmt, Rolando Rodriguez-Leal, Rajat Sodhi, Natalia Wrzask, Christine WuStructural Engineers: Arups Structural Engineering, LondonTheatre Consultants: Arups Theatre Consulting, Hong KongAll images copyright Orproject 2011 Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 13: No more tool, no more processes, no more ruling, no more treaties.March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Danish report on nanomaterials concludes no current risk The Danish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has conducted a literature review examining current knowledge on the environmental and health risks of exposure to the most widely used nanomaterials, concluding that to date no significant risks have been linked to the use of these substances. The report evaluates seven nanomaterials used in consumer products, selected on the basis of their application volumes, potential human and environmental exposure and expected persistence or bioaccumulation. These are: Titanium dioxide, Cerium dioxide, Fullerenes, Silver, Iron, Silicon dioxide and Nanoclay It concludes that, based on current uses, nano-iron and nanoclay do not carry any health or environmental risk. For the other five materials, gaps in current knowledge mean there are areas that require further research before the risk potential can be fully evaluated, according to the Danish EPA. The report was written by researchers from the consultant group COWI and Technical University of Denmark (DTU). The Future of News “The Future of News” is a groundbreaking 10-part series for public television where the best minds in traditional and new media meet to discuss the role of a free press in an ever-changing digital democracy.Host Frank Sesno guides the weekly conversations that help audiences navigate the maze of digital information and explain the future of news in the 21st century and beyond. Correspondent Sonya Gavankar uses a state-of-the-art touch-screen monitor to explore specific Web sites that look at the different ways news is presented.Google, YouTube and Twitter weren’t around 15 years ago when 24-hour cable news reached more households than daily newspapers. Today the digital giants — along with the World Wide Web and the Internet — have permanently altered the news media landscape, challenging traditional news models and constantly redefining what news is and how it is delivered. The dramatic decline of newspapers and mainstream media gives this program special relevance for today’s news consumers. “The Future of News” is produced by the Newseum for American Public Television and supported by a generous grant from the Ford Foundation. Yacht Islands “At Yacht Island Design we like to do things differently: Our approach is to consider the design in a holistic manner. We like to ensure that a common theme runs throughout the yacht, from the overall exterior shape down to the smallest interior detail. The most important thing for us is to ensure the original client-driven concept is achieved in a flowing and seamless manner.” Tropical Island ParadiseThe guest cabanas are nestled around the pool and highlights the two deck owners’ suites carved out of the front of the volcano and looking out across the bow. The interior features an owners suite located inside the volcano and spread over two decks. The living room balcony affords views out over the front of the yacht from behind the waterfall. Located behind the bedroom is the owners private spa. ‘The Streets of Monaco’‘The Streets of Monaco’ is our first design proposal. The theme is based around the Mediterranean principality with the primary focus being the famous grand prix circuit. The idea was to recreate the circuit as a fully functional kart track able to accommodate three karts side by side to allow for plenty of overtaking. By sizing the track in this way it has driven the overall dimensions of the yacht and the placement of the famous landmarks. Recommended Book The Fundamentals of Interior ArchitectureBy John Coles, Naomi House This book offers an introduction to the key elements involved in the creation of aesthetically appealing and practically appropriate interior architecture. Each element, or fundamental, uses theory and contemporary and historical references to illustrate the richness and diversity of design practice. Using examples taken from work created by contemporary practitioners, The Fundamentals of Interior Architecture offers a unique insight into the principles and processes that underpin the work of the professional interior designer. The book contains five sections which together encapsulate the principle ideas, skills and knowledge that are employed in the creation of spatial solutions that support the needs of the client and which recognise the qualities of the building and its situation. Using illustrations and photographs these elements are identified and described in a way that makes them accessible to the reader. The Indus Equation By Strategic Foresight Group, Mumbai, India IntroductionLike most rivers in the world, the Indus River in South Asia does not recognize political boundaries. It crosses over Tibet, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan before finally emptying into the Arabian Sea at the foot of the Sindh province in Pakistan. The two main benefactors of the Indus River waters are India and Pakistan. After partition in 1947 these waters formed a major cause of tension between the two countries. The headwaters of the river were situated in India while the body formed Pakistan’s main source of freshwater. In 1948 an Inter-Dominion Accord was set up wherein India was obligated to release sufficient amounts of water to Pakistan for a nominal fee in order to meet the country’s immediate requirements. However, a more permanent solution was needed when tensions over water arose once again in 1951. While Kashmir – one of the more intractable issues between India and Pakistan – seemed far from a resolution, water provided a stepping stone upon which India and Pakistan could start a process of reconciliation. Nonetheless, reaching an understanding over the most optimum distribution of the Indus River Waters was no easy task. It took nine years of negotiations before India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in partnership with the World Bank and with financial assistance from the U.S. and U.K. The IWT provides a mechanism for amicable water sharing between India and Pakistan, a luxury uncommon to many countries that have Transboundary Rivers. Since its ratification in 1960, India and Pakistan have not engaged in any water wars. Disagreements, disputes and the need for arbitration have arisen however they have been settled via legal procedures – provided for within the framework of the IWT – and not via armed conflict. The treaty is considered to be one of the most successful watersharing endeavours in the world today even though analysts acknowledge the need to update certain technical specifications and expand the scope of the document to include climate change. As India and Pakistan stand at the threshold of yet another attempt to further cooperation, ‘water’ – as was the case in 1951 – can provide an impetus to tackle larger issues like Kashmir. There has been a lot of controversy and debate about the IWT, however, the core problems are minor in many cases and can be addressed with care through a process of negotiation. The first section of this paper provides a comprehensive overview of Pakistan’s water situation; the second part discusses points of contention between India and Pakistan regarding the shared Western Rivers of the Indus and the conclusion provides the final analysis and recommendations that will assist water cooperation between these two nations in the future. Overview of Pakistan’s Water ResourcesPakistan receives its water from 3 river basins – The Indus, Karan and Makran River Basins. Of these three, Pakistan is most dependent on the Indus River Basin as it covers 71% of its territory – comprising the whole of Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, PoK and the eastern parts of Balochistan – and provides water for 77% of the population. The Karan and the Makran originate along the plains of Balochistan and they cover only 15% and 14% of Pakistan’s territory respectively. The Indus Basin has a large groundwater aquifer that covers 16.2 million ha (hectare). Groundwater is pumped with the help of tubewells, currently numbered at 0.9 million and 87% of these are run on diesel, making groundwater pumping impossible during Pakistan’s frequent periods of load shedding. Most urban and rural water is supplied from groundwater sources. Salt-water intrusion is a problem in Pakistan with about 36% of the groundwater classified as highly saline. Average Annual Freshwater Availability, which accounts mainly for the Indus River Basin flow is pegged at 130MAF (million acre feet) but can reach as low as 116MAF per year. In 2008, total water withdrawal was estimated at 148.68MAF (183.4km3) creating a deficit of roughly 18MAF. Surface water withdrawal accounted for 98.74MAF (121.8km3) and groundwater withdrawal accounted for 49.94MAF (61.6km3). [It should be noted that withdrawal here refers mainly to the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) as withdrawal outside of this is negligible.] Annual precipitation in Pakistan is roughly 500mm although this varies with less than 100mm in certain parts of Balochistan and Sindh and 1,500mm in the foothills and mountains of Punjab and NWFP. There is also an extreme variability in rainfall between the seasons. There are 2 main rainfall seasons in Pakistan – Rabi season (October-March) and Kharif Season (April-September). 60% of the annual rainfall is received during the peak of the Kharif season from July-September. Similar to the rainfall periods, 85% of the flow of the Indus is received during the Kharif Season (April to September) and the remaining 15% is received during the Rabi season (October to March). In addition, 80% of the water in the Kharif season is received from melt water. […] Issues of Contentment[…]Need for a Comprehensive Water Agreement The issue of the 12 dams is less about India’s development assistance program in Afghanistan and more about a joint-agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the Kabul River. The two countries attempted to draft a water treaty in 2003 and then again in 2006 however the attempts failed on both occasions due to a number of reasons. As a result no institutionalized framework for cooperation on the Kabul River currently exists. A comprehensive water treaty between Afghanistan and Pakistan can help tremendously to address disagreements between the two countries about storage capacity and dam building. Moreover, the IWT can be used as a model to inform the Af-Pak water treaty. Even though the IWT does not stand independent of limitations it is considered one of the most successful water treaties in the world, let alone the region, and it offers a better solution to water-sharing than the absence of any treaty at all. Due to Pakistan’s unique rights over the Kabul River, the IWT’s specifications concerning run-of-the-river dams as opposed to conventional dams can be used to a certain extent. It is also important for India to be involved in Af-Pak water dialogues. Pakistan’s dissatisfaction over the interpretation of the IWT with regard to dam construction is often stated as an impediment to a subsequent Af-Pak agreement on the Kabul River. It may therefore be conducive to discuss Pakistan’s issues regarding dam-building with both countries present. As the lower riparian for all intensive purposes, Pakistan stands to gain a lot from a treaty. ConclusionsThe concluding remarks will summarize a few salient points from this report regarding Pakistan’s water situation as a whole, its approach to the IWT, water relations between India and Pakistan and lastly possible measures to improve these relations. Pakistan’s water situation is not simply predicated on water flows from India. The low supply of water in Pakistan is largely due to water conveyance losses, poor infrastructure, increasing desalination, water pollution and climate change. Increased silting in the country’s dams has led to a decrease in Pakistan’s overall storage and hydel generation capacity. Certain biases at the centre, have led to inter-provincial disparities in water distribution. The lack of demand management measures has led to water wastage in the agricultural and domestic sectors. Even climate change and the retreating Himalayan glaciers have contributed to the water crisis in Pakistan. Often times India is blamed for all of these factors. It is true that the majority of Pakistan’s water resources flow from India, however, India has no control over Pakistan’s internal mismanagement of water resources or climatic conditions. Pakistan’s fears about Indian manipulation of water resources are based less on facts and more on a “lower riparian anxiety complex”. Pakistan has recently been deemed a water scarce country (1,000m3/capita/year), it is struggling to cope with increasing water demand and in the midst of all this it does not want to deal with a further reduction in its water resources. As a result, Pakistan pushes the panic button every time India constructs a water development project in J&K. Its objections are purely emotive with no technical foundation. India has adhered to the IWT stipulations on water works in J&K for the past 50 years, constructing strictly run-of-the-river projects on the Chenab, Jhelum and the Indus Rivers, which it is permitted to do. India is well under the storage capacities set aside by the IWT for agricultural, power and incidental usage. India has also been open to design changes, across the board, for all of its projects thus far. In the case of Baglihar, India engaged in consultations with Pakistan from 1999-2004 in order to address Pakistani concerns. In the case of the Wullar Barrage, India made major design changes in its 1991 draft and ultimately suspended construction, losing several crores of rupees, due to Pakistani objections. In the case of Kishanganga India is once again in the midst of finding a compromise in design and process that would be acceptable to both sides. All of these actions indicate that India is making an effort to address Pakistan’s concerns. However, these concerns should be valid otherwise they could seriously harm trust relations between the two countries and affect the integrity of the IWT. Pakistani objections on small projects like Nimoo Bazgo, which are designed to generate an infinitesimal amount of power – 45MW as compared to the 969MW Neelam-Jhelum power plant – will not only erode trust and waste manpower and resources on both sides of the border, but this policy of blanket objections to all water projects will hinder development in J&K and PoK. In the case of the Tulbul project, Pakistan’s consent could assist development in both J&K as well as PoK and this would be in the true spirit of the future cooperation clause of the IWT, however Pakistan continues to take an alarmist view with regard to water. Conspiracy theories on water, propagated by the Pakistani media, militant groups and even the political and military leadership on Indian “water aggression” will only encourage India to be more guarded in the dissemination of water related information. There is a clear agenda on the part of these establishments to propound a theory that the only way to gain complete control over Pakistan’s water resources is to gain a foothold over J&K. As long as this theory remains primary to the Pakistani agenda, India can never trust that Pakistan wants to use the IWT as a tool for cooperation rather than a tool to stall Indian water development in J&K. Certain issues between India and Pakistan regarding dam filling and spillway gates must be addressed once and for all so that they do not arise again and again with each subsequent project. In addition, some of the basic principles of the IWT and even the current disagreements regarding its interpretation can be used to inform potential water agreements for other Transboundary Rivers in South Asia, case in point being the Kabul River in Afghanistan. The Indus Water Treaty ranks as one of the most successful international treaties on water cooperation. However, because the treaty was designed in 1960 it does not provide for changes in water availability, increasing demands, environmental factors and technological advancements. These have all changed considerably since 1960 and there is a need to strengthen and extend the IWT, particularly its sections on future cooperation. The expansion of the IWT could focus on an integrated development plan for the conservation of the Indus Basin. India and Pakistan can jointly set up an organization, with representatives from both countries, whose functions would entail identifying short term and long term supply capacity of the basin and its integrated development, creating techniques to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change and setting up infrastructure and coordinating the different technical agencies in both governments. Development of such a plan would require a vast amount of technical and financial resources, perhaps with the World Bank agencies playing a lead role. This plan would involve a creative solution to engage in issues concerning Jammu and Kashmir. Cooperation on water will start the wheels turning on a larger Indo-Pak peace process without burdening it with an overtly political dimension. In the end, an integrated water development plan may appear to be utopian as it will require a physical and psychological paradigm shift which can be accomplished in the form of a complete end to hostilities and a change in the way we approach the issue of water sharing. However, there is no alternative to such bold thinking if India and Pakistan want to build a future based on trust, cooperation and a genuine commitment to the social and economic development of the millions of poor in both countries. You can download the full report lick here Enduring Legacies: Slavery, Serfdom and Prison in America, Europe and Russia By Dimitri Devyatkin Dimitri Devyatkin, a video-filmmaker and writer, grew up in New York. He studied documentary film directing in Russia, produced prize winning documentaries that were broadcast in the US and Europe, also worked for CBS News, ABC and others. Summary: The US, Europe and Russia are deeply affected by the legacies of coerced labor – slavery and serfdom, incarceration and concentration camps, not boding well for the future. Who benefits?A giant arc starts from the earliest days in Europe with the Renaissance, the Enlightenment and the Reformation. Great shifts occurred as large groups left their own land and went to work for others. Previously, people in pre-industrial, medieval times worked slower without technology but provided for themselves in fewer hours than today, leaving more time for arts, dancing, religion and socializing. As new geographic areas opened for possible exploitation, the great need for manual workers could only be filled using coercive means and earned great profits. These forms of coercion — slavery, serfdom, prison and bonded labor — are precursors of the concentration camp, the Gulag, today’s prison-industrial-police complex, the modern ghetto and mind control through the media. Under slavery, the slave owner beats the slave to make him work. The employer cannot beat a free laborer, but instead waits for the worker to be hungry, so he accepts working for low pay — earning profit for the employer. These “Enduring Legacies” of coerced labor are raw, unhealed scars, still rampant in our world today. In the US, the system of chattel slavery was the ugliest manifestation. In Russia, peasant serfdom ran almost parallel, with long-term effects to this day. Europe benefited greatly from slavery – the slave trade was the basis of the Industrial Revolution. Today, Europe offers different solutions and experiences. For example, prisons in Norway are more humane than in either Russia or the US, while Germany offers convicted violators systems of punishment negotiation with the victims of their crimes. The future is frightening in regard to coming ways of coercion or Big Brother social control. In prisons of the future, high technology may tip the advantage to the jailer in imposing inhuman conditions, such as surgically implanted zappers and electronic disabling armbands. Will these technological fixes make a difference in maintaining the obscene imbalance of wealth vs poverty? In the last 20 years, the growth of income for the top .01% of America, the top 400 families, has been stupendous in the many trillions of dollars. The top 1% of Americans own 40% of the country’s wealth. The system perpetuates an inequality that is even greater than the days of the Pharaoh or any previous empire. How long do people accept working so much more than necessary for the sake of a rich boss or investor? The work provided is worth more than is paid for it – maybe 25% more – “surplus value” – the source of profits for the wealthy. If workers benefit from the system themselves, they accept it. A small parasite is tolerated if it does not eat too much. But if the parasite gets big and demands more, it becomes a problem. As long as there is injustice and high unemployment, unfair distribution of essential resources in the face of conspicuous consumption, there will be struggle. It cannot be suppressed but must be ameliorated. Looters and rioters are ugly symptoms bred by inhuman social conditions. Instead of police and military suppression, people need jobs to feed their families. Only a program of widespread government employment can solve the financial mess. Work has to be dignified, respectful and humane. A person who works every day at an enterprise becomes just as invested in that enterprise, as a Mercedes-driving executive who comes in once a week to collect the earnings. The bank used to be a normal community service, like the post office, the doctor and the grocery store. Now they’re all Big Box mammoth enterprises. Small businesses are driven out and the banks are all labeled Chase. On nearly every block of downtown Manhattan, you see former small banks changed to Chase, and the brash young bankers, their loafers up on their desks, relaxing. Somebody seems to have benefited from the 2008 financial collapse: “Big fish eat the little fish.” A little rebellion now and then is a good thing, as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical, medicine for sound health of government. … The aristocracy of our moneyed corporations already dares to challenge our government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country. Thomas Jefferson We still accept mind sets of the old social structure based on slavery. We are the United States of slave owners and moneylenders. The same struggle for which so many fought and died in the American, the French and the Russian Revolutions, is still in effect today – the struggle for liberty and justice, for rights of men and women, to work for fair pay, for representation in their government. Why are the rights of bankers and investors supreme over everyone else? Why can’t we all have free medical care, free public transportation, free telephone, TV, media, free education, free childcare, low priced housing, healthy food, social services? Are we not good enough? Can have a just society in the future? Because our society today is so corrupt and so deeply controlled by criminal parasites, before we can attempt any serious change, we must be ready for a virulent counter attack. We cannot beat them with bullets against bullets. We can have contact with people’s minds and souls. There are surely more good people than monsters and killers. I – History/Roots A. Rise of Slavery and Serfdom as systems: Slavery before 1492 was not based on race. White-skinned blue-eyed Slavs were enslaved by the Romans. Some former slaves reached greatness, e.g. Aesop, a few could acquire their own freedom, and the status of being a slave was not necessarily inherited. The rise of chattel slavery in America and serfdom in Russia were stages in the growth of capitalism in both countries – forms of super exploitation. Africans had visited the Western Hemisphere long before Columbus, riding strong transatlantic currents between Mali and Brazil. Large stone heads with African features are testimony to pre-Colombian Africans having visited Brazil. Africa had highly developed societies, where centuries’ old cultures and rich universities stood, astronomy and surgery were practiced. They had not developed metal weaponry, so when confronted by Europeans, they collapsed. Chattel slavery of Africans in America began under Columbus. He was convinced that he had discovered a new route to India. When the so-called “Indians” – Native Americans his men had enslaved ran away or died, Columbus returned to Europe determined to bring enslaved Africans skilled at producing sugar and rice and mining gold, work which Europeans could not perform in such brutal conditions. “Slav” means slave in Latin; Slavs from Eastern Europe were slaves to the Romans. Slavs were ethnically native to Russia, as were the noblemen who owned them. In old Russia, serfs “came with the land,” so they were not usually bought and sold separately. Land had originally been distributed by the Tsar to the nobles, whose only obligation in return was military service, the serfs as foot soldiers, the nobles as officers. This efficient system has led to Russia occupying one sixth the land surface of the globe. Estates in Russia held far more slaves than the American plantations held enslaved Africans. Whole societies of Africans were uprooted by the Atlantic slave trade, as if they were livestock, and transplanted violently in the genocidal “Middle Passage,” triangular sea trade. After selling their sugar in Europe, slave traders bought enslaved Africans, which were transported to be sold in the Americas. The high mortality on board the slave ships richly nourished the sharks of the Atlantic Ocean, a furious process of selection by which only the strong survived. This may have favored people with the sickle cell trait in their blood, as a survival mechanism in horrific conditions, but which led to increased sickle cell anemia in generations of the blacks who survived. Which European countries especially benefited from the slave trade? For example, what was the basis of the Netherlands’ “Special Relationship” with the United States? In the gigantic open land empires of America and Russia, labor was sorely needed. Free laborers were not reliable, and forced labor was seen as an acceptable way to assure a sufficient supply of workers especially in the highly profitable agricultural enterprises of the American South and the Russian breadbasket heartland. B. Slavery in the American RevolutionBesides the famous declarations in Boston of “No Taxation without Representation,” the American Revolution was largely controlled by Southern slave owners, who were concerned about preserving their “property,” which meant slaves. England seemed ready to ban slavery in 1772. In a case reported widely on both sides of the Atlantic, James Somerset, a slave who’d been brought to England by his master, was declared free by a British judge, effective upon having set foot on British soil. Was continuation of the “abominable practice” possibly a stimulus for Revolution among America’s slave owning elite? John Adams of Massachusetts and Thomas Jefferson of Virginia made compromises with the Southern slave owners. New York and Brooklyn in particular were heavily dependent on slavery. Virginia’s British Governor Lord Dunmore declared slaves free if they could reach British lines. More blacks died during the war than whites, mostly of smallpox and starvation. Thousands left the plantations, but most were either re-enslaved or died. C. In the new USA, enslaved Africans, about 20% of the population, could not vote, but they were counted for taxation purposes in the Constitution as 3/5ths of a person, a boon when counted as a constituent for the purpose of Congressional representation. US federal power served to guarantee and perpetuate slavery. James Madison, principal writer of the Constitution, was particularly concerned with slave revolts, having lost his grandparents in such a rebellion. Several states joined the Union for reasons directly associated with slavery – e.g. Florida was admitted as a slave state so owners could chase after their runaway slaves, called “Maroons,” from Georgia. D. In Russia, with over 80% of the population serfs, the entire economy was structured on the system of forced labor. In Russia, military service of the serfs was provided to the State free of charge by their owners, creating a stable, long-lasting, hierarchical social order. Slaves were never more than one fifth of the total American population, and only exceeded the population of whites in a few Southern states, like South Carolina and Virginia. Most slaves in America lived on smaller plantations, with between 20-100 individuals. Russian serfs lived on vast estates with hundreds or thousands of inhabitants. Some estates had tens of thousands of serfs, and absentee owners were the norm.E. Building Empires on the backs of slaves and serfsThe expansion Westward in North America – the second “Middle Passage,” and the Russian move to the Far Eastern Siberia were both built on captive labor. Serf and slave rebellions were brutally suppressed and the historical evidence is still missing in the histories of both countries. Slavery and serfdom represented tremendous profit sources for the owners, in both America and Russia. Slave and serf-owning classes controlled their societies, and imposed their ways on the governments. Profits earned from the slave trade provided the starting capital that built Manchester, Bristol and Liverpool, and launched the industrial revolution in Britain in the 17th and 18th centuries. Decisions made at certain possible turning points led to huge differences, such as Jefferson and Adams accepting the onerous terms of the slave owners. Slavery in the Protestant United States differed from slavery in Catholic Latin and South America, where there was more intermarriage and actual integration of Black, native American and whites. Latin American culture accepts more integration than North American, where black music, life-style, humor, even language, is markedly divided from white. There were more slave rebellions in Latin America than in the North. The tremendous power and wealth generated by slavery in America and serfdom in Russia explains why the owners insisted for so long on maintaining the “Peculiar Institution” – of owning other human beings. II — Abolitionism, Emancipation, Integration, Jim Crow, Civil Rights, Ghettos A. Tsar Alexander freed the serfs in 1861, but the act was not enforced, so there was little change in society. After the serfs were “freed,” there was little immediate change but many peasants lost their farm workplaces, and migrated to cities and industrial areas. Russia became an industrial giant in the 1880s with a steady flow of cheap wage labor. B. The North’s Civil War victory was due, in part, to more effective social management, the advantages of wage-earning workers in place of a chattel system that enabled a fast-growing early-industrial society in the North, compared to the South. Lincoln was the only president until Kennedy (tried) to use the government’s Constitutional power to print actual “Greenback” US Dollars issued by the US Treasury. No other President has done so since. He openly chose to pursue the war for monetary reasons, not for the principle of freeing the slaves. (The Emancipation Proclamation of 1863 only applied to slaves held in rebel territories, so slaves in other states had to wait until the 13th Amendment to the Constitution to be freed.) Lincoln’s assassination was fomented by agents, who it seems, were hired by European banking interests. The Union Army enforced the Emancipation of slaves in the South, making it a reality. However, the brief period of progress in the Reconstruction period was soon rescinded and the harsh Jim Crow post-slavery variant set in. Lynching became more common in former slave states after Emancipation. Slave owners before 1863 were reluctant to destroy their slaves for financial reasons. Capital punishment is a direct extension of lynching; both forms of revenge rationalized as a “deterrent” or an example for other possible felons.Albert Einstein and Paul Robeson were good friends in Princeton, NJ, and they worked together publicly against lynching, which was especially rampant in the South after World War II. Lynching became more prevalent as some Blacks returning triumphantly after fighting the Nazis were considered uppity and “had to be taught a lesson.” In 1947 Einstein and Robeson wrote a piece on lynching for the New York Times Op Ed page but it was refused for publication. C.Prison became an extension of slavery in America and serfdom in Russia. The same overseers and the exact same methods from former plantations morphed into the South’s criminal justice system.Professor Loïc Wacquant, UC Berkeley: “Several ‘peculiar institutions’ have operated to define, confine, and control African-Americans… slavery, Jim Crow racism, the ghetto.” We now have “the novel institutional complex formed by the remnant of the dark ghetto and the carceral apparatus – the super ghetto, the prison system.” US – lead incarcerator in the world: The US has 1/20th of the world’s population, and 1/4 of the world’s prisoners. For black males, 1 in 15 is behind bars. With 2.4 million people in prison, the US now surpasses Russia with the world’s highest percentage of population behind bars: one in 99 Americans. The US is currently world leader in prisons. But until the collapse of Soviet power, the world leadership in incarceration was the USSR. In the 20th century millions of Soviet citizens were imprisoned and millions died in the Gulag. Alexander Solzhenitsyn in “Gulag Archipelago” wrote that Stalin’s advisors recommended a dual-purpose policy:1) Round up masses of outspoken peasants on accusations they are “anti-Soviet”,2) Use them as free labor to build the new societyGiant construction projects, the Moscow and White Sea Canals, vast apartment complexes and factories still in use today were built by slave prison laborers – “zeks” – in the 1930s. III – Long term effects We are descendants of slave/serf societies and it shows in our mind-sets, our ways of life and forms of employment. We’ve inherited a high rate of violence in society, and we use incarceration and police violence to settle socially caused deviations. We keep trying to solve problems by locking people up. Future trends may be frightening. Dr. Joy DeGruy Lear, Portland State University, Post-Traumatic Slave Syndrome, has pioneered a theory – Enslaved people suffered trauma from the horrors of slavery; a disorder passed down from one generation to the next. The trauma is now exhibited in slave descendants as “adaptive behaviors” – obstacles to progress in the African American community.Did the natural selection of the brutal “Middle Passage” and the daily horrors of outright slavery, make Black people even more survival oriented? Until the breakdown of the Black church and matriarchal society, Blacks had a much lower suicide rate than the general population – but now it has risen to the society norm. Black America, were it a nation by itself, would be the 10th largest economy in the world. Blacks are 12% of the U.S. population and they spend over $100 billion a year as consumers and taxpayers. The Future: New technological means of coercion – “Cattle-prod” internal zapper chips have recently been patented that can be implanted surgically, even without a recipient’s assent, and can be triggered from a distance to punish the person. The chips can be inlaid in such a way that scar tissue grows over them, making them removable only through deep surgery. Another variant patented uses an arm-band with a needle turned in against the wearer. Tampering with the arm-band sets off a zapper with a knock-out drug injected to the person. Professor Nils Christie, Professor of Criminology at the University of Oslo, Norway, has done comparisons of different countries’ rates of incarceration, length of prison terms sentenced for the same crimes, length of actual time served, demands for parole and release, and rates of recidivism. The US and Russia rank among the world’s highest in all categories. The Scandinavian countries are some of the lowest. Why?What factors make societies like ours so concerned with dealing out harsh punishments to citizens who disobey the rules? CIA torture techniques, black sites, detention prisons and extraordinary renditions are the new forms of these same forces. Until just over a hundred years ago, there were despicable exhibitions of live human beings – Human Zoos. As late as 1899, Zurich, Basel, many other European and American cities had places where throngs of people would be entertained by viewing caged human beings from Africa perform all life functions under the glare of spectators. Several Eskimos were brought back to New York by Robert Perry in the early 1900s. They were housed in the top floor of the American Museum of Natural History. When an elderly Eskimo gentleman died, his son was consoled with a funeral and fake burial in New York, but later the son was horrified to see his own father’s body stuffed and mounted in an exhibit in the museum. Are we going backwards as a society? Will we return to these horrible times of slavery and coercion or are today’s versions – wage slavery, prisons and unemployed masses – more enforceable, higher profit and more efficient? Futurist Portrait: Dave Evans Dave Evans, Chief Futurist, Cisco Innovations Practice Internet Business Solutions Group A Cisco veteran of more than 21 years, Evans joined IBSG from IT, where he most recently managed the global architecture innovations team, focusing on IP telephony, unified messaging, wireless, networked home, and Internet-related technologies. Evans has a passion for applying technology innovation to real business needs. He is also respected outside Cisco as an expert in emerging technologies and has numerous relationships with thought leaders, including those in the venture capital community. Evans has garnered numerous awards and recognitions throughout his Cisco career, including the CEO’s “Unsung Hero” award, which he has received twice, and numerous other awards for technology innovation and teaming. Prior to Cisco, Evans held varied IT positions at both AMD and MMI. Evans has pursued computer science and computer engineering at San Jose University in San Jose, California. Agenda NEW Season Events 2011/2012 October 13, 2011the future of the Living RoomExperience interior designLocation: Museum Geelvinck, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS Amsterdam November 3, 2011the future of the FutureUtopia versus The End Of The World As We Know ItLocation: VKG, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam January 2012the future of Film February 2012the future of Social Biomimicry March 29, 2012the future of LanguagesLocation: Amsterdam April 2012the future of Germany May 2012the future of Taxes June 2012the future of Urban Energy The Breakfast Club will soon announce the next events! Credentials Felix Bopp, Editor-in-ChiefRaphaelle Beguinel, Assistant Editor
Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2011, Issue 142
Content Limits to Knowing Next Events 3D Food Printer Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Aquarius Yields NASA’s First Global Map of Ocean Salinity Recommended Book Domestic slavery: An invisible modern tragedy? China-Africa Partnership Futurist Portrait: David Brian Johnson Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Our next two Season Events are about the future of the Living Room – Thursday, 13 October! Experience interior design and about the future of the Future – Thursday, 3 November! The future of the Future is an examination of the various future vision as portrayed by futurists, academics and scenario thinkers. Most futurists who try to earn a living telling stories about the future quickly learn that a happy end sells much better than a tale oftroubles. Because of this the scenario’s futurists tend to publicly talk about tend to be wondrous tales of the Startrek/Jetsons world were our problems have been solved by technology and sensible policies based on rational thinking. Telling these tales, and support them with a lot of research data is a genuinely good way to help non specialists think beyond the usual limitation of their profession. But there is a danger in the fact that many futurists need to ‘sell’ their stories is influencing their objectivity. Just as is it easy to tell a very positive story about the future it is easy to spin a vision were thing end very badly for humanity. But mostpeople don’t like bad news let alone pay for it. Can we find a better method for forecasting? And will we want to listen to those forecasts? This is a serious challenge and we need more brains involved in solving it. May we count on you brain? Concept: Arjen Kamphuis…. interested in knowing more and sharing thoughts and ideas …. join us! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Limits to Knowing By Patrick Crehan, Director, Club of Amsterdam, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates The way we think about the future has immense influence and impact on both our professional and personal lives. This is especially true for those who work in positions of responsibility for organizations and the people in them. They are the ones who decide on a regular if not continuous basis what time and money, human and material resources should be allocated to which activities so as to ensure optimal outcomes for themselves and their families, for their organizations and society as a whole. The tools we employ to think about the future are constantly evolving. Our ability to gather store and process information about the past and the present state of the world is expanding at an extraordinary rate. Several pas Club of Amsterdam events have looked at the extraordinary pace of progress in sensing, connecting and computing. These have helped our members explore the consequences of how our ability to sense the present, combine it with knowledge of the past and simulate the future, has expanded at an extraordinary rate. But it is worth while taking a look at the limits of our knowing about the future to see if we really understand how to use these powerful tools and ask if we really are on the right track, if we really are mastering the tools required to help us design and build the better worlds we want to create. Swept up in the euphoria of technological progress, there is a risk of “irrational exuberance”, that we might overlook small issues of great consequence. For this reason it is useful occasionally to go back to basics and take stock of where we are and try to filter what is real from what is mere illusion. The first reality check concerns the nature of our ability to model the world, simulate it and make predictions. Despite the extraordinary progress we have already made, and the very reasonable expectation that by the end of this decade we will have succeeded in feats as complex as simulating the workings of an entire human brain, there are real limits to what we can simulate and what we can predict. So far I am aware of at least 3 hard barriers to success in modeling and simulation, and there may be many more. The first is a demonstration by the philosopher Carl Popper, about the impossibility of predicting the future. His argument is very elegant and relies on special relativity. Effectively he provides a proof that if the world is governed by the principles of relativity, then even if we have perfect theories, and infinitely fast computing capabilities, we will still never have enough information available to always make accurate predictions even arbitrarily small times into the future. Of course we will get away with ‘good enough’ most of the time, but he explains that there is a hard barrier between that and being able to guarantee getting it right every-time. The second barrier has to do with the discovery of quantum mechanics and has to do with the ‘knowability’ of nature. The initial insights came from the work of Heisenberg and have been debated ever since. The general consensus is that it is impossible to simultaneously possess knowledge of arbitrary accuracy about the state of the physical world. In physical terms it means that we may know the position of a particle with arbitrary accuracy at a given time, but only by sacrificing accuracy in our knowledge of its state of motion. This is a hard limit on what we can know about the world and seems to be no way around it. Once again we can get by pretty well for most intents and purposes but bear in mind that many modern engineered products rely on relativity and quantum physics for their operation. Both relativity and quantum physics have left the realm of science and entered the realm of engineering many years ago. So these limits we refer to are real, impact our work and are faced by engineers every day. The third major barrier is one which only really emerged or became clear in the 1970s with the discovery of what is called ‘deterministic chaos’. This has to do with a form of ‘unknowability’ that afflicts even old fashioned Newtonian systems. It does not rely on artifacts of relativity of quantum mechanics. It would exist even if quantum mechanics or relativity were not true. This insight into the limits of ‘knowability’ go back to the discovery of dynamical systems that can be modeled perfectly, for which solutions can be shown to always exist, but which can never be calculated by any algorithm with any degree of accuracy. These systems often appear random or chaotic, when they are absolutely deterministic. Even though we know everything about what drives these systems, we also know that we cannot simulate them in any reliable way. In practice what happens is that arbitrarily small errors in the measurement of the parameters of the system lead to arbitrarily large errors in the results of a simulation. These are three hard barriers to what we can know from measuring modeling and simulating the world. There are others. Despite these limits we do pretty well and simulation can be a very useful tool when used in the right way. The spectacular collapse of Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) run by Nobel Prize wining economists is the text-book case of what can happen when the models are applied outside of their domain of applicability. We could move on from discussion about errors in simulations based on models to the impact of errors in the model itself, but that is a subject for another day. Instead it is interesting to look at issues relating not so much to our ability to predict the future, but to our ability to control it. The future is highly subjective. No one creates it alone. Chance requires the cooperation or complicity of a great number of actors. It is an iron rule of change and it is true whether we are talking about change on the level of the global economy, a business unit or our personal circle of family and friends. To affect change it is not enough for one person to know about the future, they need to bring along everyone else by forming change-coalitions for want of a better word. The starting point is creating and sharing relevant knowledge. This touches upon the philosophy and mission of the Club of Amsterdam, and there are many techniques for doing this. But even this is not enough. Given all the knowledge and understanding in the world, people may then need to act. This is the real barrier to making change happen, especially when we are looking at long-terms issues that do require an immediate solution. Such issues tend to get put off until it is too late. Making change happen requires not so much progress in simulation but progress in understanding factors such as motivation, confidence, courage, the will to act in ones own interest. This was why it took about 50 years before clear and overwhelming evidence linking smoking to lung cancer became generally accepted. It is why even today people do things like smoking that they know will shorten their lives and limit the time they have to enjoy the good things of this life. Arguable it is also one of the reasons why progress is so difficult on issues such as climate change. Despite the incredible progress we have made in out ability to collect and analyze data, model and simulate the world, make predictions about the future, we are still very poor in moving from knowledge to action. Next Events the future of the Living RoomExperience interior designThursday, October 13, 2011Location: Museum Geelvinck, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS AmsterdamThe conference language is English. In collaboration with Museum Geelvinck The speakers and topics are Kees Spanjers, Past-President, European Council ofInterior Architects‘Venustas, Solacia, Durabilitas’, a house is nota home Desiree Kerklaan, BDes Spatial designerFurniture based on biomimicry ideas Rogier van der Heide, Vice President and Chief DesignOfficer, Philips LightingFeel what Light can Do Moderated by Job Romijn, bedenker, brainstormer, problem solver, artist. the future of the FutureUtopia versus The End Of The World As We Know ItThursday, November 3, 2011Location: Volkskrantgebouw, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam The conference language is English.In collaboration with Gendo The speakers and topics are Nick Bostrom, Director, Future of Humanity Institute,Oxford UniversityThe work futurists do, humanities great potential. Arjen Kamphuis, Co-founder, CTO, GendoThe Cassandra Syndrome, nobody likes a party pooper. Anders Sandberg, James Martin Research Fellow,Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford UniversityCognitive biases and what to do about them.The art of usable foresight. Moderated by Kwela Sabine Hermanns 3D Food Printer The 3D mania is constantly growing and appearing in domains we would not have thought of. After the 3D movies and video games we will soon be able to choose to print edible creations out of a 3D Food Printer. A real existing version of such printers can be found at the French Culinary Institute in Manhattan and hopefully, within five years, amateur chefs will be able to make such an acquisition and print out their culinary creations at home. The first 3D food printer was built as part of a research project at Cornell University associating scientists and students. The group, having started the project in 2005, started experimenting food fabrication in 2007 and delivered a machine more similar to an industrial fabrication machine then a more traditional printer. With a computer acting as “the brain” attached to it the printer just needs its user to fill in its syringes with raw food; and functioning with blue print it will be able to give way to our inspiration and food desires. Investigating the possible applications of 3D printing, the 3D food printer seems to be like one of the most promising one. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 13: No more tool, no more processes, no more ruling, no more treaties.March 24: Socratic InnovationJanuary 1: On the meaning of wordsNovember 30: The happy organisation – a deontological theory of happinessNovember 26: Utilitarianism for a broken future. News about the Future Foxconn replaces workers by robots Foxconn, world leader manufacturer in electronics, revealed late July a plan for replacing hundreds thousands of its workers with up to one million robots within three years. The Taiwanese owned company is China’s first private employer with 1.2 million people and one million present on Chinese soil. The public statement issued early August by the company explains its decision with wanting to move its workers up the supply chain. Unofficial reasons can be found to better justify such an announcement. Foxconn has been facing rising labor costs, high-profile strikes and, for two years now, a series of suicides by young male workers on the company’s work sites. Moving from ten thousands robots now to one million by 2013 is an alternative for the company facing labor crisis. Rising salaries and strikes are indeed the key element for Foxconn’s motivation for an increased automation of its labor force. Sandia and UNM lead effort to destroy cancers Melding nanotechnology and medical research, Sandia National Laboratories, the University of New Mexico, and the UNM Cancer Research and Treatment Center have produced an effective strategy that uses nanoparticles to blast cancerous cells with a mélange of killer drugs. “The enormous capacity of the nanoporous core, with its high surface area, combined with the improved targeting of an encapsulating lipid bilayer [called a liposome], permit a single ‘protocell’ loaded with a drug cocktail to kill a drug-resistant cancer cell,” says Sandia researcher and UNM professor Jeff Brinker, the principal investigator. “That’s a millionfold increase in efficiency over comparable methods employing liposomes alone — without nanoparticles — as drug carriers.” Aquarius Yields NASA’s First Global Map of Ocean Salinity NASA’s new Aquarius instrument has produced its first global map of the salinity of the ocean surface, providing an early glimpse of the mission’s anticipated discoveries. Aquarius, which is aboard the Aquarius/SAC-D (Satélite de Aplicaciones Científicas) observatory, is making NASA’s first space observations of ocean surface salinity variations — a key component of Earth’s climate. Salinity changes are linked to the cycling of freshwater around the planet and influence ocean circulation. “Aquarius’ salinity data are showing much higher quality than we expected to see this early in the mission,” said Aquarius Principal Investigator Gary Lagerloef of Earth & Space Research in Seattle. “Aquarius soon will allow scientists to explore the connections between global rainfall, ocean currents and climate variations.” The new map, which shows a tapestry of salinity patterns, demonstrates Aquarius’ ability to detect large-scale salinity distribution features clearly and with sharp contrast. The map is a composite of the data since Aquarius became operational on Aug. 25. The mission was launched June 10 from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. Aquarius/SAC-D is a collaboration between NASA and Argentina’s space agency, Comisión Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE). “Aquarius/SAC-D already is advancing our understanding of ocean surface salinity and Earth’s water cycle,” said Michael Freilich, director of NASA’s Earth Science Division at agency headquarters in Washington. “Aquarius is making continuous, consistent, global measurements of ocean salinity, including measurements from places we have never sampled before.” To produce the map, Aquarius scientists compared the early data with ocean surface salinity reference data. Although the early data contain some uncertainties, and months of additional calibration and validation work remain, scientists are impressed by the data’s quality. “Aquarius has exposed a pattern of ocean surface salinity that is rich in variability across a wide range of scales,” said Aquarius science team member Arnold Gordon, professor of oceanography at Columbia University in Palisades, N.Y., and at the university’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “This is a great moment in the history of oceanography. The first image raises many questions that oceanographers will be challenged to explain.” The map shows several well-known ocean salinity features such as higher salinity in the subtropics; higher average salinity in the Atlantic Ocean compared to the Pacific and Indian oceans; and lower salinity in rainy belts near the equator, in the northernmost Pacific Ocean and elsewhere. These features are related to large-scale patterns of rainfall and evaporation over the ocean, river outflow and ocean circulation. Aquarius will monitor how these features change and study their link to climate and weather variations. Other important regional features are evident, including a sharp contrast between the arid, high-salinity Arabian Sea west of the Indian subcontinent, and the low-salinity Bay of Bengal to the east, which is dominated by the Ganges River and south Asia monsoon rains. The data also show important smaller details, such as a larger-than-expected extent of low-salinity water associated with outflow from the Amazon River. Aquarius was built by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., and the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., for NASA’s Earth Systems Science Pathfinder Program. JPL is managing Aquarius through its commissioning phase and will archive mission data. Goddard will manage Aquarius mission operations and process science data. CONAE provided the SAC-D spacecraft and the mission operations center. Recommended Book Global Catastrophic RisksBy Nick Bostrom, Milan M. Cirkovic In Global Catastrophic Risks, twenty-six leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse.The book also addresses over-arching issues – policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. The book is intended for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields. The introductory chapter of the book, which gives an overview of the chapters and of some of the over-arching issues relating to Global Catastrophic Risks. Domestic slavery: An invisible modern tragedy? Human trafficking is a plague for our globalized world and has been taking modern forms in the recent decades that still go unheard of. Domestic slavery is a branch of modern slavery existing in western countries, global cities all over the world but also in poor countries in Africa within elite households of rich families. A lot of young women and young girls immigrate from the countryside to the city or from their country to, most often, western countries or westernized cities with better job opportunities and economic perspectives. A number of these young women having left home to find a job and money to send back to their relatives, often for their young kids left behind, find themselves trapped within houses and under their employers’ domination, will and cruelty. Their passports, when they have any, are taken away from them, and consequently these girls and women become household prisoners-workers constrained, threatened and in most cases beaten. Often having to work around eighteen hours a day they sleep on the kitchen or bathroom floors, receive no salaries, sweep, cook, wash without any break or the possibility to even sit and have to make do with the leftovers of the employers’ meals to eat. For a lot of these ignored modern slaves the situation still worsens for some of them, their employers going to the extent of threatening them, beating them and even torturing them. Their situation remains in most cases unknown of for years until a helpful neighbor eventually decides to contact the police and have the victim finally freed from this nightmare. But Women and young women are not the only domestic slaves. Children, most often girls, are also victims of this branch of human trafficking and modern slavery. While in Western countries and cities such as London and Paris, in the city and suburbs, they are mostly young immigrated women; in African countries particularly they often are very young country girls sent to the city and rich families for them to become another money provider for the family stayed home. These invisible tragedies, still remaining in the Pandora box of most concerned societies, happen in the United Kingdom, in France, but also in major cities like Hong Kong which detains the highest number of these household slaves, according to estimations from specialized non-governmental organizations. Organisms such as Anti-Slavery International, Children Unite, the French Comity Against Modern Slavery (CCEM, Comité Contre l’Esclavage Moderne) are voicing out the anger, anguish and suffering of all these children and young women victim of their employers’ violence, domination and cruelties. Multiple initiatives and actions such as short movies and artistic projects have been and are being made, presented and posted on the Internet for more people to become aware of this worrying situation. Still it has not been a real topic for official or other usual media in the concerned societies and makes this issue a taboo in most of these cities and countries. To enter the intimacy of household that our similar to ours and discover that such horrible things can happen in them is source of anguish and uneasiness but one has to face it. These children and women come to work and earn money to have a better life and help their families. Some send out money to their children, some hope to be able to continue their studies after, some are grateful to have escaped a dangerous village our country but they all deserve as workers to be treated with respect. No human being should be imprisoned, forced in slavery and beaten. This is a plague but like all plagues it can be fought if only more and more people becoming aware of these multiple and almost invisible victims and help them fight for their rights and dignity. China-Africa Partnership China’s trade with Africa has increased dramatically over recent years. By 2008, it surpassed the USD 100 billion mark to reach USD 114 billion. Despite the 2008 global financial crisis, China-Africa trade nevertheless totalled USD 93 billion in 2009. A new book from the African Development Bank (AfDB) analyses and details this rapid and continuing growth of trade between China and Africa. “China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development?” is a collection of studies by AfDB experts and others, which details and comments on this recent phenomenon from various aspects. The collection looks at the future of this emerging partnership; views the relationship from a post-financial crisis viewpoint; details both China’s trade with Africa and its foreign direct investment into the continent; reviews China’s manufacturing and industrialization policy in Africa; looks at China’s aid and assistance program in Africa; discusses Chinese infrastructure investments and their implications for African regional integration; and analyzes the China-Africa relationship in the context of international aid architecture. The following are summaries of each of the studies contained in “China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development?” 1. China and Africa: An Emerging Partnership for Development? This introductory paper summarises the dual purpose of this new publication as to “analyze the economic exchange between China and Africa, and to outline policy recommendations to improve the benefits to both parties”. It notes that trade between China and Africa reached USD 100 billion for the first time in 2008, and that foreign direct investment (FDI) from China into Africa was USD 5.4 billion. By that same year, almost 10 percent of Africa’s trade was with China. China’s involvement with Africa goes beyond trade and investment and includes development assistance. At the 2009 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China pledged USD 10 billion in concessional loans to Africa. China’s trade with the African continent is currently imbalanced, concentrating on a small number of countries, given the emphasis on oil and minerals. About 70 percent of Africa’s exports to China come from Angola, South Africa, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and are heavily dominated by raw materials (e.g. oil, copper, cobalt and cotton). Some 60 percent of imports from China, largely manufactures, go to South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria and Morocco. However, despite the rapid growth in trade with China, the European Union (EU) and the United States at the moment remain the largest trade and investment partners for many African economies. The EU accounts for 30 percent of Africa’s exports. The paper notes that China’s intense competition in manufacturing and its rising demand for oil highlights the risk that Africa may remain specialized in raw materials in remain vulnerable to volatile commodity prices. Chinese competition could threaten African countries that export manufactures, such as tobacco products from Benin, refined oil products from Egypt, Algeria and Kenya, wood products from Cameroon and processed food from Mauritius. On the other hand, China is supporting export diversification in Africa through the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) located in Zambia and Mauritius, with future sites being considered in North and East Africa. The paper notes China’s commitment to large infrastructure projects in Africa, but points out that the investments could be more supportive of African regional integration. The bilateral nature of China’s infrastructure investments limits such support for regional integration across countries, which is considered important for African growth and development. As in other papers in the publication, it also notes that unlike western donors, China has a different perspective on the encouragement of good governance in Africa. It states: “China considers intervention in aid recipients’ domestic politics as an infringement of sovereignty, while traditional donors emphasize that aid is more effective in countries with good governance”. However, it goes on to say “recently it appears that Chinese companies are becoming more sensitive to corporate social responsibility and are starting to focus on the ‘triple bottom line’ (profit, social, environmental)”. It brings up the possibility that China could create jobs in Africa. “Africa is not only a source of…commodities…but also a future investment destination for labour intensive manufacturing” because wages are rising faster in China than in Africa. 2. Post-crisis prospects for China-Africa relations This paper focuses on the impact of the recent global financial crisis on China and Africa, and also explores the relationship between the two regarding development challenges. The 2008 crisis had a severe impact on Africa, and by the first quarter of 2009 it was clear that economic activity would be severely depressed due to lower remittances from the African diaspora and reduced demand from rich countries. China was also affected. Chinese officials in December 2008 reported the 670,000 closures of small firms with the loss of 6.7 million jobs, for instance. However, the paper notes, “China’s substantial current account surplus, large international reserves and strong fiscal position provided ample scope for measures to compensate for the fall in external demand”, and clear signs of recovery were evident by 2009. China’s economy grew by 8.9 percent in 2009, retail sales rose by 16.9 percent and FDI grew by 30 percent. This recovery was a boon to global markets, particularly to Africa. The global crisis did not appear to dent China’s enthusiasm for investing in Africa. The authors note that “surveys undertaken in early 2009 in Beijing indicate that entrepreneurs would continue to invest in, and trade more, with Africa”. In fact, their study found that “Chinese companies exporting to Europe and America have adjusted rapidly to the slowdown in these markets by finding new markets, such as in Africa”. On development, the paper notes that “China is sometimes referred to as an emerging development partner, although the country has had an aid program since the 1950s”. China’s assistance is mainly allocated, it says, to “all weather friends”, such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Mali and Tanzania. Due to different definitions of aid, it is hard to quantify China’s development assistance, say the authors. Credit and aid data are fragmented over more than 20 line ministries, public banks and other agencies, and it includes a wide range of activities, including grants, scholarships and infrastructure projects. 3. China’s trade and FDI in Africa The author of this paper notes that despite recent dramatic growth “Africa remains a marginal trading partner compared to China’s trade with other regions”. China-Africa trade has grown rapidly because “the growth of foreign trade and investment over the past decade has been guided by the desire to secure energy resources, leading to increased relations with Australia, Latin America and Africa”. Even so, “Africa’s share of China’s total exports and imports – despite recent increases – remains less than 4 percent, and is even smaller for manufactured goods. Trade with China is somewhat more important for Africa, representing almost 10 per cent of exports and imports” China’s outward FDI to Africa is dominated by a few resource-rich countries, plus South Africa. Between 2003 and 2007, more than half of Chinese FDI into Africa was absorbed by just three countries – Nigeria (20.2 percent), South Africa (19.8 percent) and Sudan (12.3 percent). In fact, the state-owned China National Petroleum Corp is the leading foreign investor in Sudan.Nigeria’s share is set to rise significantly. China is negotiating the acquisition of 16.7 percent of Nigeria’s oil reserves. China’s interest in African oil stems from its wish to diversify supply away from Middle Eastern countries to more stable African countries. Also, among sub-Saharan countries, only Nigeria is a member of OPEC. However, the author points out the future FDI will diversify and focus more on the private sector and the development of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in sectors such as telecommunications, business services and manufactured goods. China is also using some African countries as a platform for re-exports. 4. China’s manufacturing and industrialization in AfricaThe authors of this paper note that Africa’s economic growth has been predicated on higher commodity prices while diversification into manufactured production has been limited. They look into why this is so, what sort of manufactured goods that African countries should be producing for successful export, and China’s role in that process. A key question is whether “China’s rapid growth in manufacturing combined with Africa’s exports of natural resources is effectively blocking off Africa’s ability to follow a manufacturing-led growth path”.The production of manufactures (value added as a share of GDP) in Africa remained constant between 1995 and 2004, and is far below the average of developing countries elsewhere. Manufactures accounted for only 10.9 percent of the GDP of the 20 largest African economies in 2006 – 9.6 percent if South Africa is excluded. In 2004, a study found that manufactured exports equalled only six percent of sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP – not much more than half of the 11 percent average for all low income countries. In order to improve this situation, one study suggests that Africa should follow a “land-abundant development path similar to the United States rather than the land-scarce Asian economies”, pointing the way to adding value to the continent’s natural resources through manufacturing. The authors particularly highlight apparel as an opportunity. “It can be expected that the labour-intensive apparel sector would play an important role in Africa’s manufactured exports, given the continent’s abundant low-skilled labour and preferential access to the United States and the European Union”. They note that “production of wearing apparel is being transferred rapidly to developing countries”. They accounted for only 28.2 percent of global production in 1995, but 57.5 percent in 2006. Two-thirds of that change took place between 2002 and 2006. They observe that “.the clothing sector is the only manufacturing sector in Africa that displays international competitiveness” However, African countries need to keep an eye on costs. For instance, “total cost of a pair of pants made in China is about $1 while a similar product produced in South Africa costs ten times as much”. On trade with China, the authors note that while Africa ranked only 7th as an export destination and 8th as a source of imports in 2008, “China’s trade with Africa is expanding more rapidly than with most other trade partners”. Between 1995 and 2008, China’s exports to Africa rose by 23 percent per year, faster than exports to Europe, the United States or ASEAN countries. The authors note the lack of African success in manufacturing compared to Asia. “One problem is that Africa’s economic policies, governance and institutions have been far weaker than in many of the successful Asian economies”. They go on to make recommendations for the future. “Africa needs to strengthen “the policy umbrella”, through more stable macroeconomic policies, more dependable provision of government services, and expanded infrastructure investments, including support for regional trade (e.g. improved roads and border post management)”. 5. China’s engagement and aid effectiveness in AfricaIn this paper, the author acknowledges that traditionally China has focussed its assistance on countries with which it has good political relations and countries with oil and mineral resources. However, he notes that “recent trends have seen some broadening of Chinese assistance”. He also reports that there has been some expansion of investment outside primary industries. One study notes that there has been “significant investments in non-primary industries such as clothing, the food industry, transport, building, tourism, power plants and telecommunications”. In recent years, the author concludes, “China’s engagement with Africa has expanded to cover most countries on the continent and beyond natural resources to light manufacturing and services”.It also finds that “Chinese enterprises have played a positive role through transferring technology”. As a result, “trade with China could contribute to the product and geographical diversification of African exports”. On FDI, the author points out, as other papers in the publication do, that Chinese FDI is relatively insignificant. It was 1.1 percent of all FDI into Africa in 2007. However, that compares to only 0.2 percent in 2003, and “China’s FDI to Africa is growing much more rapidly than FDI from other countries”. On the level of development assistance from China to Africa, once again because of definitions, it is hard to estimate. However, the paper quotes a study suggesting that Chinas aid flows substantially exceeded the USD 731 million reported by official sources. It may have reached USD 8.1 billion. Another study estimates that China’s overseas development assistance to sub-Saharan Africa averaged between USD 1 billion and USD 1.5 billion annually during 2004 and 2005. The estimates suggest that “Chinese aid to Africa is growing rapidly, but remains small compared to assistance from OECD/DAC members” Chinese aid differs from western aid in that it is usually tied. “Development assistance is usually granted in kind, while financial assistance is given to finance contracts that are implemented by Chinese companies”. 6. China’s Infrastructure Investments and African IntegrationIn this paper, the authors emphasize the importance of regional, integration if Africa is to reap the benefits of economies of scale, access to globalized markets and to strengthen its position in international negotiations. It also discusses the establishment of a core group of African countries with FOCAC to promote regional integration. Such a group could pursue initiatives such as improving access to the Chinese market and advancing regional infrastructure projects. In the longer term, it could establish a coordinated approach to debt relief and the untying of development assistance. It emphasizes the importance of improved transport infrastructure and integration, particularly for Africa’s land-locked countries. Transport costs impede trade growth for those countries. For instance, transporting a container between Japan and Abidjan costs USD 1,500, but the cost to a land-locked country is double. It also underlines the importance of China trading and dealing with Africa’s various regional trading and economic groupings such as ECOWAS, COMESA and SADC, and notes that such regional trade has been growing over recent years. Chinese investment in infrastructure in Africa has remained stable at about USD 5 billion a year. Recent examples of projects include roads and bridges in the DRC, railways in Angola, and power stations in Zambia. Also, China is building high-voltage power transmission lines to interconnect countries in southern Africa, strengthening regional integration. In the rail sector, China’s largest deals include the construction of mass transit systems in Nigeria, and the construction of new lines linked to mining developments in Gabon and Mauritania. The largest ICT project with Chinese involvement is the rollout of a national communications network in Ethiopia. China has also made moves into the African financial sector. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has acquired 20 percent of South Africa’s Standard Bank for USD 5.6 billion, and the China Construction Bank has entered into a strategic partnership with FirstRand of South Africa. 7. China, Africa and the International Aid ArchitectureThis paper looks into the implications of China’s rising prominence in aid and assistance for the practices that govern the international aid architecture. As in other papers, it notes that while China is often called an “emerging donor”, it has had an aid program since the 1950s. Egypt was the first recipient of Chinese aid in 1956. Now, every country in Africa, apart from Swaziland, has received some aid from China. During the mid-1970s, China had aid programmes in more African countries than the United States did. The paper concludes that China will continue in its aid and assistance program. “The evidence suggests that Chinese finance will be a significant, continuing source of capital for African countries. In 2009, the Chinese pledged to commit USD 10 billion in new preferential loans (a mix of export credits and concessional aid loans) to Africa by 2012. Futurist Portrait: David Brian Johnson David Brian Johnson, futurist at Intel Corporation: “What we do at Intel is that we literally make the future.” and “Futurism isn’t really about prediction but about creating concepts for the future.” Graduate student of the New School University (NY), David Brian Johnson first worked as an executive producer on interactive television projects for a number of companies such as British Airways and the Discovery Channel, in Europe and the United States. Now chief engineer and Consumer Experience Architect at Intel Corporation his activity is centered on future casting for the development of future Intel products. He himself defines future casting as a “process for developing a vision for the future” which involves various inputs such as technology, global trends study, social sciences research and even science fiction. Within Intel, his late focus has more specifically been on the research and development of smart TVs. David exercises numerous other activities outside his important position at Intel. Author of multiple scientific papers and more popular literature about technology, he has written several science-fiction books such as Fake Plastic Love and the forthcoming This is Planet Earth. His last book Screen Future: The Future of Entertainment, Computing and Devices we Love, published in 2010, has had an important impact on the public, accurate mirror and analysis on how to view the technology surrounding us in everyday life.3 Intel’s Futurist Brian David Johnson: Don’t Let The Future Happen To You! Agenda November 3, 2011the future of the FutureUtopia versus The End Of The World As We Know ItLocation: Volkskrantgebouw, Wibautstraat 150, 1091 GR Amsterdam January, 2012 February 23, 2012the future of Social BiomimicryWhat we can learn from natureLocation: Amsterdam March 29, 2012the future of LanguagesLocation: Amsterdam April 2012the future of Germany May 2012the future of Taxes June 2012the future of Urban Energy The Breakfast Club will soon announce the next events! Credentials Felix Bopp, Editor-in-ChiefRaphaelle Beguinel, Assistant Editor
Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2004, Issue 37
Content Helen Shaw: Regulating broadcasting – for citizens or consumers?News about the FutureSummit HighlightsSummit for the FutureRecommended BookThe European Services ForumToyota i-unit Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Helen Shaw: Regulating broadcasting – for citizens or consumers? Helen Shaw, Managing Director, Athena Media Ltd Regulating broadcasting – for citizens or consumers? The way the two words run together, citizens and consumers, one can often think they are the same people . OFCOM, the new integrated regulator in the UK defines itself as serving the interests of the ‘citizen-consumer’ – a new Anglo-Saxon kenning literally fusing the two together. But the interests of citizens and consumers are not the same and can often be in conflict – not just in broadcasting and communications regulation – but in other parts of civic life. Here in Ireland, for example, we introduced a tax on plastic bags some years ago, a tax both consumers and shopping centres resisted, in their interests, but which has served the interests of citizens and civic society by rapidly removing plastic litter and reducing our consumption of plastic, non-recyclable bags. In the broadcasting sphere the Irish regulator, the Broadcasting Commission of Ireland (BCI), which has responsibility for the regulation of broadcasting advertisement code, has spent much of the year in detailed consultation on a new children’s advertisement code which will control advertisement aimed at children under 18 years. While the code has raised the conflicting issues of children as consumers and citizens it has also flagged the difficulties for all of us in Europe attempting to creating content regulation in an individual state. Ireland has one of the highest European trans-national TV penetration rate with over 80% of consumers able to view a wide range of Irish, UK and international channels and nearly half the TV audience has digital satellite or cable television. Yet content regulation, whether for programmes or advertisement, is nationally based and affects only the terrestrial offerings. The Irish TV case highlights the need for greater pan-European regulation codes which create minimum standards across Europe and which provides a European context for the debate for short term consumer demands and long term citizen interests and rights. For small European nations like Ireland, with a population of just 4 million in the Republic, the sea of global choices is welcome but can equally wash out the national cultural needs and interests of the place and people. Ireland has two languages, Irish and English, and an increasing challenge for broadcasting regulation here is not just to serve the lowest common denominator but to take a long term view of how regulation can encourage quality home produced programming which reflects national heritage, culture and language and which provides a contemporary debate for a modern thriving economic and political state. In Ireland a new integrated regulator, the Broadcasting Authority of Ireland, is about to be created merging the regulatory role of the BCI and the RTE Authority which governs the public broadcasting company, RTE. This is ironically a stage beyond OFCOM, which has only minor regulatory powers relating to the BBC which is still regulated by the Board of Governors. The proposed BAI in Ireland is an opportunity to develop a new template for broadcasting regulation but it needs debate and time and most importantly of all it needs consolidating legislation creating an adequate legal and regulatory framework for the future. One of the key issues may be that two years down the road since it was proposed it is already out of dated. A body called the Broadcasting Authority of anywhere is missing the point that Broadcasting is now only an aspect of the future of both content production and delivery. The new body needs to be a Media Authority which as in Australia combines both broadcasting and the internet reflecting that now and in the future television is as likely to be delivered over mobile new media platforms as through a TV box in the living room and reflecting that a debate over citizens and consumers needs to see the holistic nature of content whether programming or advertisement across all platforms Helen Shaw, Managing Director, Athena Media Ltd, Irelandspeaks at our Summit for the Future 2005 about the future of Media & Entertainment News about the Future Solar hydrogen – energy of the future A team of Australian scientists predicts that a revolutionary new way to harness the power of the sun to extract clean and almost unlimited energy supplies from water will be a reality within seven years. Using special titanium oxide ceramics that harvest sunlight and split water to produce hydrogen fuel, the researchers say it will then be a simple engineering exercise to make an energy-harvesting device with no moving parts and emitting no greenhouse gases or pollutants. It would be the cheapest, cleanest and most abundant energy source ever developed: the main by-products would be oxygen and water. Rooftop panels placed on 1.6 million houses, for example, could supply Australia’s entire energy needs. “This is potentially huge, with a market the size of all the existing markets for coal, oil and gas combined,” says Professor Janusz Nowotny, who with Professor Chris Sorrell is leading a solar hydrogen research project at the University of NSW Centre for Materials and Energy Conversion. The team is thought to be the most advanced in developing the cheap, light-sensitive materials that will be the basis of the technology. “Based on our research results, we know we are on the right track and with the right support we now estimate that we can deliver a new material within seven years,” says Nowotny. 1.6 million individual households equipped with 10m x 10m solar hydrogen panels would meet all of Australia’s energy needs. Hydrogen generated from water using solar energy constitutes a clean source of energy as neither its production nor its combustion process produces greenhouse or pollutant gases. Hydrogen produced by existing conventional methods emits carbon dioxide at the production stage. When this technology matures it would allow Australia to be a leader in solar technology, becoming part of an OPEC of the future. Australia is ideally placed to commercialise this technology as it has abundant sunlight. This technology ultimately will reduce Australia’s total reliance on coal, gasoline and natural gas, providing energy security. Titanium dioxide is plentiful and cheap. Titania ceramics also have many other applications, including water purification, anti-viral and bacteriacidal coatings on hospital clothing and surfaces, self-cleaning glasses, and anti-pollution surfaces on buildings and roads. As sources of fossil fuels disappear, the race is on to be the world’s leading provider of hydrogen. The US Government recently committed an extra US$1.2 billion to hydrogen research. Japan has launched a 20-year research program that is sending satellites into space in the hope that it can harvest solar energy and send it back to the earth by laser onto cells of titania (TiO2). The European Commission has instituted an intense R&D program in pursuit of solar hydrogen. Iceland aims to be the world’s first hydrogen economy. Telecom in the Trillions: Forecasting for 2007 High-speed access will be the principal driver of international equipment spending in the next four years, aided by an improved economic environment and rising profits, according to the Telecommunications Industry Association’s (TIA) 2004 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast. TIA expects spending on telecommunications equipment to increase by 5.4% in 2004 and then to grow at high single-digit rates through 2007. Equipment spending in Canada and Mexico, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Asia/Pacific will expand an estimated 7.4% CAGR, rising from $260.1 billion in 2004 to $328.1 billion in 2007. Overall spending on telecom in the five regions will rise to more than $2.0 trillion in 2007, fueled by the growth in wireless services and support services. “We expect the profile of international broadband growth over the next four years to match that of wireless subscribers achieved over the 1998-2002 period. As the worldwide broadband market expands, we will see an increased need for infrastructure to support the added traffic that will in turn revitalize the network infrastructure equipment market,” said TIA President Matthew J. Flanagan. The introduction of third-generation services over the next four years will keep the wireless market growing at double-digit rates even as penetration slows. By 2007, wireless will comprise 54% of total transport services. The landline market will continue to grow at single-digit rates as the migration from wireline to wireless continues. The market will increase from $440.6 billion in 2004 to $484.2 billion in 2007. The transport services market as a whole will expand from $828.0 billion in 2004 to $1.1 trillion, an 8.8% CAGR increase. The emergence of Wireless Fidelity (Wi-Fi) using the 802.11 family of standards will also stimulate the equipment market. There were 8,600 hot spots outside the U.S. in 2003, up from 3,600 in 2002. The study predicts the international hot spot count to increase to 23,000 in 2004 and to grow to 145,000 by 2007. The demand for equipment generates a demand for services to support that equipment. Spending on basic service and support, professional services, and depot repair and logistics for both enterprise and network equipment in Europe, Latin American and Asia/Pacific totaled $421.8 billion in 2004. Europe is expected to be the largest region in support services spending, reaching $316.3 billion in 2007. Summit Highlights Glen Hiemstra and Tom Lambert are two of our outstanding keynote speakers:Opening Event. You can attent the Opening Event of the Summit for the Future without participating throughout the whole Summit. Glen HiemstraFuturist.com, USALeading Futurist from Seattle, Washington Lessons from the Future: Creating the Knowledge Society “Change the form of information, the speed of information transmission, and the level of access to both creating and consuming information, and you will change society. In his keynote to the Summit for the Future 2005, Glen Hiemstra, Founder of Futurist.com and professional futurist from Seattle, Washington, will examine the dynamics creating a new kind of society. This will be an insightful exploration of the powerful and sometimes surprising dynamics taking us through a techno-social-economic revolution. The most potent technology developments underlying this revolution go beyond information technologies and encompass nanotechnology and the coming energy transformation. The techno-social-economic revolution, underway for perhaps thirty years and now more than half-way finished, is changing the basic pillars by which we organize life, including the job, the home, retirement, government, and education. Along the way old orders die and new orders emerge, and through this process old Europe may emerge renewed while the new world, America, may struggle to maintain leadership. At the same time, resistance to the future emerges and plays out on the global stage. The entire presentation is framed in the context of three questions about the future, what is probable, what is possible, and what is preferred.” Tom LambertChief Executive, Centre for Consulting Excellence,Professor of Consultancy, Rushmore University, Member of the Club of Amsterdam Advisory BoardUK/USARecently a list of “The Obvious Experts” in the field of consulting, training and conference speaking was published in the United States. Tom Lambert was the sole European listed. This speaks volumes for his global reputation. Winning the Future “Asia is making massive strides and cannot be ignored – let me concentrate on the tiger rather than the cubs. The questions, risks and challenges that we face are very real. Perhaps we should return to the attitudes and courage of our not too distant ancestors that understood that nothing worth doing is without risk and, knowing the risks, opened the known and newly discovered world to trade. The countries of Europe have an entrepreneurial past second to none. With the clearest understanding that we can develop in a volatile situation perhaps we can regain some of the spirit of our forebears. Given that we must start somewhere – let us look at the challenges that may face us in China and determine if we have the sheer guts that it will take to deal with them.” Summit for the Future 2005 Club of Amsterdam Summit for the Future 2005 Date: January 26-28, 2005Location: HES Amsterdam School for Business, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsRegistration: If you like thinking “out of the box”, this Club of Amsterdam Summit may prove to be the best conference of 2005. Trade / Service Industry Energy Healthcare Media & Entertainment Science & Technology Summit for the Future 2005 Recommended Book Bioethics in a European Perspectiveby H. Ten Have, Bert Gordijn In this book, developed by a group of collaborating scholars in bioethics from different European countries, an overview is given of the most salient themes in present-day bioethics. The themes are discussed in order to enable the reader to have an in-depth overview of the state of the art in bioethics. Introductory chapters will guide the reader through the relevant dimensions of a particular area, while subsequent case discussions will help the reader to apply the ethical theories to specific clinical problems and health policy queries. The book focuses on perspectives typical for the European context. This highlights not only particular bioethical themes such as social justice, choices in health care, and health policy (e.g., in post-communist countries), it also emphasizes specific approaches in ethical theory, in relation to Continental philosophies such as phenomenology and hermeneutics. Because of its articulation of what is typical for the European health care setting as well as for bioethical debate, this book is unique in comparison to existing textbooks in bioethics. The book is an introductory textbook acquainting the reader with the major issues in present-day health care as well as the various theoretical and practical approaches to clarify these issues. Bert Gordijn, Secretary of the European Society for Philosophy of Medicine and HealthcareClinical Ethicist, Assistant Professor of Medical Ethics, University Medical Centre Nijmegen, Department of Ethics, Philosophy and History of Medicine Philosopher Healthcare Summit for the Future The European Services Forum The European Services Forum The European Services Forum is an organisation representing service industries across the European Community. The membership comprises more than thirty European trade federations and more than forty international companies based in countries which are members of the European Community. World trade in commercial services accounts for 20% of world exports, but services account for 60% of annual flows of foreign direct investment. Domestically, the service sector dominates most developed economies in the world and is the largest sector in the economies of the developing world. The European Services Forum, therefore, strongly supports and encourages the movement to liberalise service markets throughout the world and to remove both trade and investment barriers. The ESF recognises that there is strong evidence to support the view that liberalising service industries such as telecommunications, financial services and power distribution brings benefits to both the developed and developing world. However, the ESF also believes that liberalisation needs to be accompanied by a regulatory infrastructure which encourages transparency, competition and fairness. The liberalisation process should be a managed process, which takes into account the social and cultural background of the liberalising country. The European Union is the world’s largest exporter of commercial services accounting for 26% of total global services transactions and for more than 40% in terms of balance of payments. The European Union is also the world’s largest importer of commercial services. European service industries therefore have a key interest in playing a major part in the new round of multilateral negotiations. The ESF supports a comprehensive round of negotiations because it believes that countries have different priorities in the WTO negotiations and therefore there will not be a wide agreement without a comprehensive round. Pascal Kerneis, Managing Director, European Services Forum speaks at the Summit for the Future 2005 about the future of Trade / Service Industry Toyota i-unit Toyota i-unit The “i-unit” creates a seamless transformation between vehicle and human movement, minimizing occupied space and energy consumption with its lightweight and ultra compact size. The i-unit has a compact size enabling the passenger to move among other people in an upright position in low speed mode, and a low center of gravity that ensures stable handling when the vehicles reclines in high speed mode. Drive Controller: Drive-by-wire technology and intuitive handling enable the passenger to maneuver on-the-spot turns and drive at high speed at will. IT Controller: A driver support information system uses sound, light and vibration to facilitate interactive communication. The driver support system features Intelligent Transport System (ITS) technology, which Toyota hopes to utilize for an accident-free society. The system permits efficient and safe autopilot driving in specially equipped lanes. A personalized recognition system can provide information and music, and body color can be customized, according to the individual’s preferences and emotions. The body is built using environmentally friendly plant-based materials such as kenaf. Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events January 26-28, 2005 Summit for the Future 2005 .Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 October 27, 2004 the future of ICT .November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries .February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry .March 30, 2005 the future of Water .April 27, 2005 the future of Branding .June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics .June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy . Partners of the Summit for the Future
Club of Amsterdam Journal November 2004, Issue 36
Content Jacques van der Gaag about the future of Developing CountriesNews about the Futureabout the future of Developing Countries Summit for the Future Recommended Book Global Development Learning Network Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Jacques van der Gaag about the future of Developing Countries Prof.dr. Jacques van der GaagDean, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam The Millennium Development Goals Who’s kidding who?The global development community, big international players like UNDP and the World bank, but also bi-lateral donor agencies, large NGO’s and others, have reached agreement about a set of development goals that should be reached by the year 2015. The first, and best known, of these goals is the reduction of world poverty by 50%. To state this more precisely, the international head count ratio, i.e. the percentage of people living on $ 1,- per day or less, is supposed to be cut in half by 2015. In 1981, the global headcount ration was 40.4%. This was reduced to 27.9% by 1990, and to 21.1% in 2001. A steady and impressive decline in poverty. If this trend continues, the best available prognoses show that then, by 2015, the poverty rate will be down to 15.0%. At first sight, this is a development success story. But a closer look may lead to another view: Virtually all the progress is due to the impressive growth performance, during the past two decades, of China. More recently, another populous country, India, has also registered impressive growth. Add these two countries together, and take into account their huge populations, and most of the downward trend is explained. For Latin America and the Middle East, current projections show hardly any poverty decline, and for Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, the trend is upwards! Still, strictly speaking, and ignoring interregional variation, the first Millennium Development goal will be reached in 2015, if current trends continue. Unfortunately, this cannot be said of the other seven MDG’s. The situation for MDG #6 is especially dramatic. This goal calls for “combating HIV/AIDS and malaria”. While not very specific, the current situation already makes it possible that, most likely, the HIV/AIDS situation in the world will be worse in 2015, rather than better. And the same is likely to be true for malaria. For HIV/AIDS the picture is currently as follows: almost 40 million people are infected, three million people died in 2003 alone and five million additional people get infected every year. Still, according to their own website, the Global Fund hopes that within five years, 1.6 million people will be treated for AIDS. But in five years time 25 million more people will be infected! Similarly, the WHO’s so-called 3×5 initiative, which calls for three million people to be treated in 2005, is failing: the current count is 450,000 (June 2004). Clearly, the gap between what needs to be done and what is being achieved is growing rapidly. For malaria, the picture is different, but the conclusion is more or less the same: progress is hard to find and much too slow for what is needed. A new problem there is that the standard drug, chloroquine is no longer effective. The new drug of choice, artemisinin, is, unfortunately too expensive for most of the poor who suffer from malaria, if it is available at all. What is needed is a global effort to massively produce the new drug and put it on the market at highly subsidized prices. A new study estimates that, annually, the cost of such a subsidy would amount to between 300 and 500 million US $. Just a fraction of the costs of HIV/AIDS treatment, but still a substantial amount. However, the old drugs were cheap, preventive measures such as bed nets are relatively cheap, and all are very cost effective. Still, every two minutes, two children die in Africa alone, from malaria. It is hard to believe that, even if the change to the new drug can, with a global effort, be achieved, that alone will be enough to make progress in the fight against the major killer. The other MDG’s are in the area of education, maternal health, child health and some broader area’s (such as the environment). True, regional progress can be expected for some of those, but in general the expectation is that none of the goals will be reached as stated. That is a sad state of affairs. The first goal will be reached, but only if China and India continue on their aggressive economic growth paths, and all the other targets will be missed. One may wonder what the point is of setting goals for the world, and then failing to reach them. One would expect, given these bleak projections, that there would be a global outcry and a massive effort to improve the situation. But a few years after declaring these MDG’s, the world has moved on the other things, like the war on terror. The war effort in Iraq, thus far, costs US $ 300 billion, and the Paris Club just took US$ 30 billion of Iraqy debts of the books (an amount that can increase to 90 billion). Finding money for goals that the global powers do believe in, does not seem to be the problem. But if we, collectively, do believe so little in those MDG’s that we seem to be unable to generate the necessary resources to reach them, who are we kidding but ourselves? Prof.dr. Jacques van der GaagDean, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam is our moderator at the Club of Amsterdam evening about the future of Developing Countries, Tuesday, November 30, 2004 News about the Future Stem Cells and Regenerative Medicineby National Academy of Sciences Scientists hope that by growing stem cells in laboratories they can generate specific tissues, such as heart, lung, or kidney tissue, which could then help repair damaged and diseased organs or provide alternatives to organ transplants. Many of the illnesses cited as potential targets of stem cell therapy – such as diabetes, heart disease, spinal cord injury, and Parkinson’s disease – have few or no treatment options, so millions of Americans are looking for cures. The ability to take tissue derived from stem cells and transplant it into the human body to restore lost function may be a long way off, but some studies involving animals have been encouraging. For example, transplanted embryonic stem cells from mice have restored some insulin regulation ability in mice with diabetes, relieved symptoms of Parkinson’s disease in rodents, and partially restored neural function in animals with spinal cord injuries. Landmark report could influence the future of medicines in Europe and the worldPriority Medicines for Europe and the World, commissioned by the Dutch Government as current president of the European Union (EU), identifies a priority list of medicines for Europe and the rest of the world, taking into account Europe’s ageing population, the increasing burden of non-communicable illnesses in developing countries and diseases which persist in spite of the availability of effective treatments. The report looks at the gaps in research and innovation for these medicines and provides specific policy recommendations on creating incentives and closing those gaps. “This report identifies health gaps and potential solutions. It is particularly timely for a continent where an ageing population faces increasing health problems, and for a world where old and new threats no longer respect national borders,” said Dr. Lee Jong-wook, Director-General of WHO. about the future of Developing Countries It Works: Rural Health-Care Techby Wired With degrees in medicine and engineering, Vikram Kumar could have plenty of lucrative opportunities. Instead, he’s opted for a venture with dicey moneymaking prospects. The chief customers of Dimagi, his two-year-old startup, are nonprofit health agencies in developing countries. With software co-developed by Dimagi, nurses in India manage information collected in the field on more than 70,000 patients. And in rural South Africa, outreach workers use software that Dimagi helped develop to distribute HIV test results in remote settings while ensuring confidentiality. World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work For Poor People Broad improvements in human welfare will not occur unless poor people receive wider access to affordable, better quality services in health, education, water, sanitation, and electricity. Without such improvements in services, freedom from illness and freedom from illiteracy – two of the most important ways poor people can escape poverty – will remain elusive to many. The World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People says that too often, key services fail poor people – in access, in quantity, in quality. This imperils a set of development targets known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which call for a halving of the global incidence of poverty, and broad improvements in human development by 2015. Summit for the Future 2005: Healthcare Club of Amsterdam Summit for the Future – Visions & Strategies for 2020 Date: January 26-28, 2005Location: HES Amsterdam School for Business, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Is Globalisation the single biggest factor affecting all our visions and strategies for 2020? Is it a threat to the fabric of society – or are those who do not join the people we should be keeping an eye on? Are all innovation and production gradually shifting to the BRICK countries by 2020 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Korea)? Will Europe simply turn into the world’s retirement home? Or will the current knowledge centres in UK and The Netherlands switch to Ireland, Sweden, Finland and Australia? How can we change Brain Drain into Brain Gain – or perhaps Brain Circulation is a better phrase? At the end of January 2005, we’re putting the pick of the strategic thinkers together for our international “Summit of the Future”. It will be a creative clash of inspiration. We will debate the significance of global trends in the open plenary sessions – followed by workshops in five key knowledge streams. Trade / Service Industry Energy Healthcare Media & Entertainment Science & Technology Summit for the Future 2005 –see: https://clubofamsterdam.com/2020/10/27/summit-for-the-future-2005/ Recommended Book The World Ahead: Our Future in the Makingby Federico Mayor, Jerome Binde This book looks at the major challenges of the future. Packed with the latest information and scientific understanding, it traverses a rich tapestry of crucial issues, threats and choices confronting humanity and proposes a new start based on four broad contracts: social natural, cultural and ethical. In a world where problems are taking on increasingly global dimensions, we must come up with global solutions. We need to turn a culture of violence into a culture of peace. The choice is stark: either a 21st century with a human face or the grimacing mask of a ‘Brave New World’. Global Development Learning Network Global Development Learning Network The Global Development Learning Network uses distance learning technologies and methods to facilitate interactive, cost-effective learning and knowledge-sharing for sustainable development and poverty reduction. GDLN Centers around the world offer a unique set of services to development practitioners. The Global Development Learning Network (GDLN) is a worldwide partnership of distance learning centers (GDLN Centers) and other public, private, and non-governmental organizations committed to development learning and development dialogue for lasting poverty reduction. Offering a unique combination of distance learning technologies and methods, GDLN facilitates timely and cost-effective knowledge sharing, consultation, coordination, and training. Through GDLN, individuals, groups, and organizations design and deliver courses, seminars, and other activities that cover the full range of development issues. GDLN Centers around the world have facilities for videoconferencing, web-based learning, and face-to-face interaction and also offer logistical support and facilitation services. These provide cost-effective, fast, and high-impact alternatives to traditional meetings and courses, enabling people around the world to connect with each other without having to travel. Activities do not need to be delivered in a concentrated period of time because people can continue working even as they participate in events. This gives them time and flexibility to read background materials; prepare real assignments related to their actual work; and interact with local peers for an enhanced learning experience. Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events January 26-28, 2005 Summit for the Future 2005 Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 October 27, 2004 the future of ICT November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry March 30, 2005 the future of Water April 27, 2005 the future of Branding June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy . Partners of the Summit for the Future
Club of Amsterdam Journal, November 2004, Issue 35
Content Ton Dietz about the future of Developing Countries about the future of Developing Countries News about the Future Summit for the Future: HealthcareRecommended Book Arche Noah Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Ton Dietz about the future of Developing Countries Ton Dietz, Professor of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam, Scientific Director, Netherlands Research School for Resource Studies for Development, CERES Development: an obsolete illusion or obvious challenges for the new century? The UN community, the OECD and the Bretton Woods Institutes have all joined to boost the so-called Millennium Development Goals to be attained in the year 2015. Many of the world’s bilateral donor countries have also joined these pledges to confront poverty, illiteracy, bad health, unsustainable environmental practices, and bad governance practices worldwide. The Netherlands is among them, focusing on priority themes (education, reproductive health, hiv/aids, and water & environment) and on a limited number of target countries. After the ‘lost development decade of the 1990s’, the global development industry succeeded to get a new momentum, although current global levels of development aid stagnate around 30 billion US$ per annum (global remittances of international migrants alone are more than 100 billion US$ now), and the debt levels of many poor countries remain very high. It is evident that the concrete Millennium Development Goals will not be reached by 2015 and one can wonder if this current ‘momentum’ is only the last breath of a dying age of obsolete illusions of ‘progress’, ‘modernity’, and ‘global responsibility’. Words are important here. The words ‘development’, and ‘developing countries’ suggest a world-wide process of steady improvement of living standards, fuelled by technological improvements, and by economic, political, and maybe even cultural globalisation, with global corporations as key players in this process of ‘positive change’. However, if we look at the evidence of the last two decades, there has been no single category of developing countries. And its political expression ‘the Third World’ does not have any reality anymore either. Part of the former “Third World’ is in decay, struggling with governance crises, and economic and environmental deterioration, and this is certainly true for most of Africa. Other parts of the former “Third World” (and China and India in particular) are rapidly becoming threats to US-dominated Empire, and to the European Union’s claims to become the world centre of innovation. The same can be said for the much-coined word ‘globalisation’. An empirical study of trade as a percentage of GDP, one of the sure signs of globalisation, shows a majority of the world’s population indeed living in countries which experienced more market openness together with GDP growth per capita during the last two decades. However a considerable minority of the world’s population experienced decreasing market openness, sometimes together with improved GDP/capita levels, sometimes with deteriorating GDP/capita levels. And in addition quite a number of people (in the former Soviet Union in particular) had to endure a situation of strongly increased openness of markets with very deteriorating standards of living. Globalisation has at best been fragmented, and economic results are mixed, and sometimes disastrous. So what can be expected in the currently very diverse parts of the former ‘developing countries’ during the next century? A few predictions can be made without much risk. Longer-term developments on a global scale will have to face further population growth, a rising demand for scarce resources on a world scale, further technological breakthroughs and global diffusion of communication possibilities, major impacts of climate change and a growth of vulnerability-increasing shocks related to man-made environmental mismanagement. It is much less clear what the governance answers will be on a world scale, and how new governance arrangements will succeed to manage life-threatening risks for vulnerable people, or even for mankind as a whole. The economic and political tensions of the next century will be dominated by the question: can the world develop a new governance regime for a globalised economy? Or will the world be confronted with regionalised block formation, in which hitherto ‘developing countries’ will become integrated in an American, a Eurafrican, a South-Asian and a Chinese block? What will be the position of obvious tension zones (Middle East, Indonesia)? It can be predicted that both regionalisation and globalisation will result in the gradual equalization of rewards for labour, first for educated labour, later for all forms of labour. A major mixing of labour streams, at global or regional levels can be expected, putting strong pressure on wage and salary levels in the hitherto ‘developed’ countries, and causing major social unrest. It is unclear though in how far this social unrest will translate in politically motivated de-globalisation, or in counter-globalisation around competing blocks, with competing cultural specificities (e.g. around religion, or language, or styles of governance) as ‘markers of identity’. It is unclear how competition for resources, and for (related?) identity hegemony, will translate into violence, or even mass extinction of human life, if violence results in nuclear warfare and terrorist acts of mass destruction. It can be predicted that innovation capability will shift to high-tech, low-reward economies, but probably leaving large parts of the globe out, which will add governance and international migration problems to increased instability and fluidity. Areas of opportunities and areas of threats will exist, side-by-side, and will shift rapidly, undermining the profitability of long-term investments, and favouring short-term gains, and irresponsible business practices. New global governance is dramatically needed to prevent ‘cow-boy capitalism’ (not only of Americans), with cut-throat competition for scarce resources, and to manage the global equalisation processes of rewards for labour and for innovative capability. A sustainable global corporate sector demands global governance structures, and a ‘Marshall Plan’ for more equal opportunities. I am not confident that the world will get the global leadership needed for this task. Maybe then European political and corporate leadership will (or should) take initiatives, which global leadership can’t provide. Ton Dietz, Professor of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam, Scientific Director, Netherlands Research School for Resource Studies for Development, CERES speaks at the Club of Amsterdam evening about the future of Developing Countries, Tuesday, November 30, 2004 About the future of Developing Countries The Internet Diffusion in Sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-country Analysisby Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, Kaushalesh Lal, United Nations University, Institute for New Technologies “In this paper, we employ the notions of digital inequality and digital divide to describe two levels of access to Information and Communications Technologies (ICTs). On the one hand there is the inequality of access to the cluster of technology measured by Internet use intensity and on the other are the confluence of skills and other resources that differentiate countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using cross-country data, we test hypotheses developed from a review of the literature from which we draw preliminary conclusions on the nature and pattern of digital access in the region. The variables are analyzed through a simultaneous equation system because the high correlations ruled out the use of a single econometric model. The paper confirms the vital importance of telecommunications infrastructure – represented by the high correlation of telephone density – with Internet use, no matter the per capita income level of a country.” Financing agricultural marketing: The Asian experienceby A. W. Shepherd, FAO Reporting an exploratory study, this paper looks at how traders and processors of grains and horticultural produce in Asia finance their marketing activities and how they use that finance. The paper concludes that lack of working capital is probably not a major constraint to the functioning of agricultural marketing systems in Asia. Nevertheless, millers, in particular, do appear to experience problems in accessing investment capital. A feature of most agricultural marketing systems is the existence of many vertical financial linkages, pivoting around millers in the case of grains and wholesale market traders in the case of horticultural produce. The paper concludes that such linkages seem to be generally non-exploitative and serve mainly to secure supply, guarantee markets and reduce transaction costs. Bank lending to the trading sector is constrained by lack of collateral and by the fact that traders often face immediate needs for cash that are incompatible with slow bank procedures. The paper considers ways in which banks could make their products more attractive to traders and proposes further research to increase our understanding of the financial needs of those involved in agricultural marketing and primary processing. News about the Future Energy conservation in focusA dozen Chinese city mayors and their representatives came together to explore ways of tackling the traffic congestion and excessive energy consumption suffocating city development. Xu Kuangdi, head of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, urged city mayors to improve energy efficiency in buildings. They consume 30 per cent of the total energy in China, a percentage in keeping with its increased urban acceleration. The average energy consumption of buildings in China is up to three times that of those in developed countries. Should the current situation continue, China will not be able meet energy demands, he said. “The buildings, compared to the industrial and transportation sectors, have greater potential to save energy at lower costs,” said Xu. Even by replacing existing lights with energy-saving bulbs, China can save the equivalent amount of electricity generated annually by the Three Gorges Dam Project, the world’s largest hydropower project. FeliCai-mode FeliCa is a new service made possible by the synergy of two platform technologies: NTT DoCoMo’s mobile Internet service, i-mode, and Sony’s contactless IC chip technology, FeliCa. FeliCa’s speedy and secure data transmission technology was combined with i-mode, which enables communication wherever the user may be. As a result, a handset becomes a mobile tool for convenient new uses, serving as e-money, credit card, ticket, or even house or office key. Summit for the Future 2005: Healthcare Gain critical insights and a deeper understanding of the issues that will shape the Knowledge Society. The Summit for the Future 2005 is a European conference that brings together experts, thought leaders, policy makers and knowledge workers.Together with top experts, this conference tackles key issues in five knowledge streams: Trade / Service Industry Energy Healthcare Media & Entertainment Science & TechnologyClub of AmsterdamSummit for the Future: Healthcare Healthcare Knowledge Stream Major Trends: Economic: imbalance of smaller budgets vs. higher costs & demands (aging population); Medical consumers: empowered patients; rising expectations and demands; ‘value for money’-sense; Professionals: medical knowledge-Bang – strain on intellectual capacities of medical professionals; patient safety at risk; Innovations: rising potentials of healthcare IT-solutions (eHealth); slow adoption/business redesign; Genomics: steep increase diagnostic & therapeutic possibilities. Globally, healthcare is under major strain, economically and technically. The last 2 decades, innovative use of information technology has catalyzed enormous international knowledge exchange among medical professionals and researchers. For that matter, the Internet has been the major driving force for an aging population of medical consumers to become demanding, informed patients who are increasingly faced with higher healthcare (insurance) costs, while governmental support for healthcare is diminishing in several countries. In a new era of information society, rising demands and swift adoption to new technologies are competing for a new balance. In the next decades goals as patient safety, healthcare outcomes, e-health, business intelligence and redesign will lead in a rapidly changing healthcare environment towards a new equilibrium in costs, care and cure. Why should you attend?The Healthcare Stream at Summit for the Future 2005 is a unique opportunity for to change ideas and learn from profound experts on healthcare innovation and e-health opportunities. Within a European context the most relevant trends and strategic issues concerning healthcare reform will be presented and discussed within a top-notch group of experts, all with field knowledge and expertise. Goals: understand key drivers of change tackling key barriers for health care innovation learn from long term visions with short term goals network with thought leaders, policy makers and experts. Who should attend?The main objective is to bring together thought leaders, policy makers and knowledge workers to gain a deeper understanding and more insights regarding critical elements in their industries and how they relate to a European Knowledge Society. Especially for the Health Care Stream the following groups should attend: healthcare policy makers, e.g. governmental leaders business healthcare strategists medical associations, e.g. board members corporate executives, e.g. CEOs pharmaceutical industry, IT-industryThe attendees should be primarily from Europe. We have exciting speakers like: Tom Lambert, Chief Executive, Centre for Consulting Excellence, Vladimir Petrovsky, former Director-General of the UN in Geneva, Glen Hiemstra, Futurist, Futurist.com, Wendy L. Schultz, Futurist, Infinite Futures andthe speakers about the future of Healthcare:Joerg-Peter Schroeder, Healthcare Solution Manager EMEA, Microsoft, Geoff Royston, Head of Operational Research, Department of Health, England, Tamsin Rose, General Secretary, European Public Health Alliance (EPHA), Gio Tettero, Managing Director, Siemens Medical Solutions, Director, Siemens Netherlands, Petra Wilson, Associate Director for EU Affairs, European Health Management Association, Kevin Dean, Director, Public Sector Healthcare, Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco, Bert Gordijn, PhD, Secretary of the European Society for Philosophy of Medicine and Healthcare, Clinical Ethicist, Assistant Professor of Medical Ethics, University Medical Centre Nijmegen, Department of Ethics, Philosophy and History of Medicine, and the Knowledge Stream Leader Wouter Keijser, e-health specialist, Wacomed. Recommended Book Development As Freedomby Amartya Sen By the winner of the 1988 Nobel Prize in Economics, an essential and paradigm-altering framework for understanding economic development – for both rich and poor – in the twenty-first century. Freedom, Sen argues, is both the end and most efficient means of sustaining economic life and the key to securing the general welfare of the world’s entire population. Releasing the idea of individual freedom from association with any particular historical, intellectual, political, or religious tradition, Sen clearly demonstrates its current applicability and possibilities. In the new global economy, where, despite unprecedented increases in overall opulence, the contemporary world denies elementary freedoms to vast numbers – perhaps even the majority of people – he concludes, it is still possible to practically and optimistically restain a sense of social accountability. Development as Freedom is essential reading. Arche Noah Arche Noah Founded in 1989 by heirloom gardeners and biological farmers. 2004: 6.000 members. Their common goals: preservation, distribution and utilisation of heirloom varieties and old local varieties of vegetables, field crops and fruit. 1989: First catalogue of seeds, a cooperation of 30 members of Arche Noah. 2004: Sortenhandbuch (handbook of heirloom varieties), containing over 2.000 varieties, perserved by 150 members. 1992 start of collection – 2004: 6.500 accessions. Noah 1995 public Arche Noah Garden opens in Schiltern / NÖ [Austria]. Today: 16.000- 20.000 visitors / year. Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events January 26-28, 2005 Summit for the Future 2005 Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 October 27, 2004 the future of ICT November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry March 30, 2005 the future of Water April 27, 2005 the future of Branding June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy .
Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2004, Issue 34
Content Erik L.J. Klein Nagelvoort about ICT-breakthroughs about the future of ICT News about the FutureSummit for the Future 2005 – January 26-28, 2005Recommended Book Offshore Operations in India Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Erik L.J. Klein Nagelvoort about ICT-breakthroughs Erik L.J. Klein Nagelvoort, Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Co-author of the EU report Ten ICT-breakthroughs for reaching Lisbon goalsEurope has set itself the highest target, it wants to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy, to have sustained and accelerated economic growth with full employment and a modernised social protection system. […] ICT has a direct and substantial impact on productivity growthThe impact of ICT on productivity is undisputed. This impact goes beyond a direct return on investment. Scientific research in the USA demonstrates that computers are often the catalyst for bigger changes. Information and communication technology (ICT) is not only the technological basis for a fast growing industry sector but also an indispensable enabler and driver for an inclusive, dynamic and knowledge based economy and a modern social society. […] ICT has turned into a key technology for pursuing sustained economic growth, in various ways:• Investments in ICT infrastructure, networks, productive equipment and software (capital deepening) creates economic growth. OECD estimated that in the last decade ICT investments have typically produced an annual GDP growth of between 0.3% and 0.8%. This was a significant contribution to overall economic growth viewing an average European GDP growth of approximately 2%.• The growth of the ICT sector itself produces economic growth. After the burst of the Internet bubble, the ICT sector experienced a few difficult years, but at present it outperforms many other sectors. Some countries have very strong ICT sectors that contribute significantly to the GDP growth (annual contribution in Korea, Ireland and Finland: approximately 1%).• Firms that increase their efficiency by using ICT (multifactor productivity) create economic growth. The USA for example has obtained an annual average productivity growth rate of 1.4% (1996-2001). As a ‘general purpose technology’ ICT has a strong impact on a wide range of industries and it often is an enabler for major innovations in non-ICT sectors. The communications sector itself has been the largest contributor to labour productivity and is a key asset. The sectors that heavily depend on ICT, such as financial services, have also benefited a lot from such investment. The Lisbon Agenda includes the following key political objectives to realise this ambition:• to establish an inclusive, dynamic and knowledge based economy;• to produce accelerated and sustained economic growth;• to restore full employment as the key objective of economic and social policy, and reduce unemployment to the levels already achieved by the best performing countries;• to modernize our social protection systems. Erik L.J. Klein Nagelvoort, Partner, PricewaterhouseCoopers, Co-author of the EU report speaks at the Club of Amsterdam about the future of ICT on Wednesday, October 27 About the future of ICT Why minds are not computersby Raymond Tallis “The once revolutionary and counter-intuitive notion that “the mind is to the brain as software is to hardware” now seems to be hardwired into the thinking of most people who have views on the nature of consciousness. In arguing against the conventional unwisdom, one has not only to demonstrate that minds are not computers but also to explain why such a daft idea should have seemed half-way plausible. Arguments against the Computer Theory of Mind, therefore, should include an explanation of the aetiology and persistence of a delusion.” My case has four strands. The first is the unremarkable claim that computers are not conscious. The second is the equally unremarkable claim that consciousness is not computational. The third will boldly assert that minds are conscious, so that if consciousness is not computational, neither are minds. (Many people pretend to believe that minds are not conscious or importantly so.) Finally, I will examine the language by which those who believe the Computer Theory are self-deceived.”See: The Philosophers’ Magazine W3C Celebrates Ten Years Leading the Web“This special anniversary brings the opportunity to acknowledge the impact of the Web and the W3C’s stewardship role. I hope it will also inspire ever more collaboration, creativity, and understanding across the globe.” – Tim Berners-Lee In 1994, the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) was created to “Lead the Web to Its Full Potential.” This year, W3C celebrates its tenth anniversary. The Consortium is organizing a one-day symposium on 1 December for Members and invited guests to reflect on the progress of the Web, W3C’s central role in its growth, and risks and opportunities facing the Web during W3C’s second decade. News about the Future HY-LIGHTThe fuel cell car HY-LIGHT is the result of a partnership between the research centre of Michelin Group, based near Fribourg, Switzerland, and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) in Villigen, in the Canton of Aargau, Switzerland. PSI developed the fuel cell system, and contributed its long-term experience of basic electrochemical research. By using the new cells and improved supercaps, the scientists, engineers and designers achieved a technological leap forward in the efficiency of energy conversion. Michelin created the whole power train, the electric motors and the chassis management system, based on an active electric suspension. This gives the vehicle stability on bends and when it brakes, providing a safe, comfortable ride. Hydrogen and oxygen are stored in special vessels fitted into the structure of the vehicle and well protected against shocks. Both gases can be produced by electrolysis. A prototype installation was studied and realised with the support of the Electrical Power Company of Fribourg. Within barely 20 months, this enthusiastic team from the worlds of science and industry have constructed and tested their prototype. The HY-LIGHT can now demonstrate its performance in Shanghai at the Challenge Bibendum, the largest competition in the world for environmentally-friendly motor vehicles. The fuel cell car will be presented in public for the first time in Switzerland before the end of November 2004. Connected HealthThought LeadersEssays from health innovatorsEdited by Kevin Dean […] There are formidable forces driving healthcare, and in particular the way information is used to support its management and delivery up the world’s agenda: • Ageing populations in the developed world, whose expectations of service and quality of life are ever rising through developments in other industries, be they banking, media, retailing, or leisure• Massive leaps forward in the tools, techniques and treatments used to prevent and cure diseases, ever adding to the demand and cost of care• An explosion of public access to information, rapidly accessed through the internet, changing the relationship between patients and the organisations that care for them throughout their illness• Finite resources, even in the richest nations, that can be devoted to public services• Increasing mobility of citizens, both inside their own regions or countries, and between countries• Huge potential for both health-disasters and life-changing improvements in the quality of life, in developing nations, through often simple changes in public and personal health practice• Rapid adoption of web-based technologies in many industries, and in many countries rich and poor, driving up the productivity and quality of almost all products and services[…] Summit for the Future 2005 – January 26-28, 2005 Club of AmsterdamSummit for the Future 2005 – Visions & Strategies for 2020Date: January 26-28, 2005Location: HES Amsterdam School for Business, Amsterdam, The NetherlandsGain critical insights and a deeper understanding of the issues that will shape the Knowledge Society. The Summit for the Future 2005 is a European conference that brings together experts, thought leaders, policy makers and knowledge workers. Each Knowledge Stream can be attended by 25-30 participants. Please make your registration as soon as possible! Please promote the Summit for the Future to your friends, collegues, your network! KeynotesTom Lambert, Chief Executive, Centre for Consulting Excellence, Professor of Consultancy, Rushmore University, UK/USA; Vladimir Petrovsky, former Director-General of the UN in Geneva, Russia/France; Glen Hiemstra, Owner, Futurist.com, USA; Wendy L. Schultz, Futurist, Infinite Futures, UK Knowledge Streams the future of Trade / Service IndustryCatherine Distler, Deputy Director and Co-Founder, Promethee, France; Pascal Kerneis, Managing Director, European Services Forum, Belgium; Stefan Schneider, Head of Macro Trends, Deutsche Bank Research, Germany; Frank D Shaw, Director General, Centre for Future Studies, UK; Julian Baggini, Editor and Co-Founder, The Philosophers’ Magazine, UK; HES Amsterdam School of Business, The Netherlands; Wanda van Kerkvoorden, SOLV new business advocaten, The Netherlands the future of EnergyGerd Eisenbeiss, Member of the Board of Directors, Research Centre Jülich, Germany; Michiel Jak, Senior Consultant Sustainability & Hydrogen, Altran Technologies Netherlands BV, Netherlands; Tim Harper, CEO, Cientifica, Executive Director, European NanoBusiness Association Spain; Arnulf Grübler, IIASA – International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria; Katie Begg, Principal Lecturer, Institute of Energy & Sustainable Development, De Montfort University, UK; Rob van Hattum, Head of Science Programmes, VPRO television, Content Director, Dutch Science Centre NEMO, The Netherlands the future of HealthcareJoerg-Peter Schroeder, Healthcare Solution Manager EMEA, Microsoft, Germany; Geoff Royston, Head of operational research, Economics and Operational Research, NHS – United Kingdom National Health Service, UK; Tamsin Rose, General Secretary, European Public Health Alliance (EPHA), Belgium; Gio Tettero, Managing Director, Siemens Medical Solutions, Director, Siemens Netherlands, The Netherlands; Petra Wilson, Associate Director for EU Affairs, European Health Management Association, Belgium; Kevin Dean, Director, Public Sector Healthcare, Internet Business Solutions Group, Cisco, UK; Bert Gordijn, PhD, Secretary of the European Society for Philosophy of Medicine and Healthcare, Clinical Ethicist, Assistant Professor of Medical Ethics, University Medical Centre Nijmegen, Department of Ethics, Philosophy and History of Medicine, The Netherlands; Wouter Keijser, e-health specialist, Wacomed, The Netherlands the future of Media & EntertainmentPaul Kafno, Managing Director, HD Thames, UK; Wim van de Donk, President of the Netherlands Scientific Council for Government Policy. Professor, Faculty of Law, Tilburg University, The Netherlands; Helen Shaw, Managing Director, Athena Media Ltd, Ireland; Gerd Leonhard, Music Futurist, Switzerland/USA; René Gude, Managing Director, The International School for Philosophy – Internationale School voor Wijsbegeerte, The Netherlands; Jonathan Marks, Director, Critical Distance BV, The Netherlands the future of Science & TechnologySimon Jones, PhD, DSc, CEng, Managing Director, MIT Media Lab Europe, Ireland; Bror Salmelin, Head of Unit Information Society DG, European Commission, Belgium/Finland; Valeri Souchkov, InBITween Consulting Group, The Netherlands; Andreas Neef, Executive Manager, Z_punkt, The Foresight Company, Information Scientist, Futurist, Germany; Mathijs van Zutphen, The Netherlands; Patrick Crehan, CEO & Owner, Crehan, Kusano & Associates sprl, Belgium Recommended Book Big Book of E-Commerce Answers: How to Turn Your Website into a Money Machineby Tom Lambert Managers need to manage. In e-commerce the “techies” far too easily pull the wool over their eyes. The alternative to building knowledge is to have the technical people, advertising agencies or marketing departments making the business decisions that would normally be the sole responsibility of the front-line manager. This book puts the control back where it belongs. No commercial enterprise can be without an effective web presence but to be effective as a business activity, business managers need to be able to produce a robust and viable e-commerce strategy. This book helps the reader plan and operate a well-founded e-commerce operation, whilst suggesting ways in which to make the best use of technology to improve productivity and reduce costs. This book provides a clear understanding of how the Internet, investment in technology and e-commerce work. In plain, it is a book aimed at those more interested in web profits, than web prophets. Offshore Operations in India Choosing a location for offshore operations in IndiaA NASSCOM – KPMG Study 2004 India’s success with off-shoring is expected to continue over the next few years with expected growth of 30 – 40 per cent and an increase in the share of off-shored services from 25 per cent currently to 40 per cent. What is lost in this evolution is where this growth is going to come from. While it could partially come from existing activities moving to the higher end of the value chain, it will also require expansion or entry of new players. Most new entrants and existing players are faced with the lack of information or a framework to guide on the choice of location for their off-shoring operations. Should it be in the currently attractive locations that are encountering salary increases of 10 – 20 per cent and attrition jump to 30 – 40 per cent? Or, should it be in locations where costs could be 30 – 50 per cent lower in comparison but availability of necessary infrastructure / people skills may be an issue? How would the positioning of these locations change in the future (two – three years)? The NASSCOM- KPMG study is aimed to address this gap and to guide the systematic evaluation of location choice for companies’ ITeS requirements. The study indirectly addresses the needs of three broad categories. – Firstly, potential investors who have no clear understanding of operating out of India or even about specific location choices and are looking at an overall assessment as well as the experience of other players.– Secondly, players with off-shoring operations in India that are evaluating expansion or relocation options driven by customer or competitive pressures and cannot keep track of changes across different locations.– Thirdly, local or state government and regulatory authorities that are often very intent on attracting ITeS investments and generating employment but lack an understanding of how companies choose locations. The report covers 13 city clusters across ten states that account for over 85 per cent of the country’s IT / IT- enabled Services (ITeS) exports. Other states too are now attracting interest for ITeS but these were not considered for the current study at this stage, either due to lack of significant ITeS activity or information available within the resource constraints. A typical approach to choice of location by companies for ITeS could involve multiple stages of information gathering and analyses or negotiations. The evaluation during the process is based on a changing set of parameters, from ‘a buzz about the location’ to ‘quantitative aspects of key factors like salary costs, bandwidth availability etc. ‘ to ‘qualitative and experiential aspects of flexibility and special concessions’. Blast Radius is a world-class team of experts focused on making technology work for businesses, transforming customer experience into reality. We’ve been at it since 1996, offering a unique integration of strategy, technology, and design to help industry-leading companies deliver superior experiences to their customers.http://www.blastradius.com Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events January 26-28, 2005 Summit for the Future 2005 Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 October 27, 2004 the future of ICT November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry March 30, 2005 the future of Water April 27, 2005 the future of Branding June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy .
Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2004, Issue 33
Content Peter R. Luiks: True Globalization hitting the Netherlands about the future of ICT News about the FutureHealth Evidence Network (HEN)Recommended Book Artificial Intelligence Applications Institute Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe True Globalization hitting the Netherlands Peter R. Luiks, CEO/COO, International Business Liaisons, Advisory Board, International Centre for Consulting Excellence The reasoning behind the Dutch Government’s current, random looking cost reductions, which have not been adequately communicated, is that the future will require an improved integration in and between the agricultural, industrial and the automation age, adapting and improving upon our current knowledge base in order to stay abreast with global competition which will only intensify in the next coming decades. For many cultures, globalization is perceived as “the West over the rest”. Ideas, politics, and technology are seen and viewed as following in the footsteps of explorers, missionaries, and soldiers. These gaps in a shared and common set of values and respect must be bridged in order to build the atmosphere for a sustained and stable expansion in the world economy. Thus the human rights norms and values that are the prerequisite of globalization must be promoted with both a sense of urgency and with an improved understanding and respect for cultural diversity. On a global scale it remains to be seen what values will be shared and which individuals and communities will shape them. Who will participate in these decisions and who will decide them? Will free trade be tied to workers’ rights, hurting Third World companies and benefiting comparatively rich Western workers? Will Third World economies be forced to adopt First World intellectual property protection, harming their infant industries? Will the new concentration of information content and conduits restrict access to fundamental enlightenment? In short, how will 21st-century humanity divide and hopefully narrow the gap between those who will prosper and those who are left trailing behind in their standard of life? In addition to the above Western, and indeed the advanced Asian, economies also have to face … Peter R. Luiks, CEO/COO, International Business Liaisons, Advisory Board, International Centre for Consulting Excellence speaks at the Club of Amsterdam about the future of ICT on Wednesday, October 27 about the future of ICT The 500 most powerful computer systemsThe TOP500 project was started in 1993 to provide a reliable basis for tracking and detecting trends in high-performance computing. Twice a year, a list of the sites operating the 500 most powerful computer systems is assembled and released. The best performance on the Linpack benchmark is used as performance measure for ranking the computer systems. The list contains a variety of information including the system specifications and its major application areas. Rethinking The European ICT Agendaby PricewaterhouseCoopers Europe has set itself the highest target, it wants to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy, to have sustained and accelerated economic growth with full employment and a modernised social protection system. But everyone agrees that the Lisbon targets are still far away. Structurally, the economic growth rate and worker productivity are lower than in many comparable countries such as the USA. The key technology to stimulate growth in Europe is ICT. Although the ICT developments in the last decade have been spectacular, the potential contribution of ICT to economic growth and the quality of life is still enormous. However, it is necessary to take account of the ICT paradigm of today and proven best practices in an international setting to achieve the best results in the future. News about the Future Jetcar 2.5Efficient cars have been gaining great importance over the last few years. Many people are upset about increasing gas prizes. This, however, is not likely to change in the near future. As fossil fuels become rarer gas prizes are bound to surge. Jetcar Zukunfts GmbH tries to develop a car that is both good for your budget and good for nature! EU producing most science resultsThe European Union has overtaken the United States in terms of published scientific output, but EU scientists are still behind their US counterparts when it comes to getting their work seen, a new study has found. This raises hopes that the Union will be able to close the transatlantic innovation gap. A wide-ranging analysis by David A King of the UK’s prestigious Office of Science and Technology has provided an interesting new perspective on the scientific output of the world’s main science powerhouses. One of the more remarkable findings of his study – which was published in Nature – is that, in the space of a decade, the EU-15 not only narrowed the transatlantic gap in terms of published scientific output but it actually pulled ahead of the United States. Between 1993 and 1997, the USA produced nearly 1.25 million papers, whereas the EU produced less than 1.2 million. From 1997 to 2001, however, the Union overtook the States, producing 1.35 million against 1.27 million. Health Evidence Network (HEN) The Health Evidence Network (HEN) is a new project initiated and coordinated by the WHO Regional Office for Europe. HEN works with several agencies and organizations to provide evidence for decision-makers. There is a growing need to get timely information for decision-making. The huge quantity of information and evidence available in the field of public health is dispersed among numerous databases and other sources. HEN makes it easier for decision-makers and other interested parties to get rapid access to all of this in one place. It comprises two services: answers to questions to support the decision-making process;HEN welcomes questions on health policy issues from all interested parties. With the assistance of its international Editorial Board, HEN selects questions from those submitted and commissions experts to do systematic reviews of available findings from research and other information, and to write the responses, which are peer reviewed and periodically updated. and easy access to sources of evidence such as databases, documents and networks of experts.Provides access to a number of online databases, reports and documents and networks of experts in the field of evidence for public health and health care. The list is not complete and new information is continuously added. Evidence and information from each organization are selected for relevance to health policy decision-making in the WHO European Region. Recommended Book The Global Information Technology Report 2003-2004: Towards an Equitable Information Society (Global Information Technology Report, 2003-2004)by Soumitra Dutta, Bruno Lanvin, Fiona Paua Since it was first launched in 2001, the Global Information Technology Report has become a valuable and unique benchmarking tool to determine national ICT strengths and weaknesses, and to evaluate progress. It also highlights the continuing importance of ICT application and development for economic growth. The Report uses the Networked Readiness Index (NRI), covering a total of 102 economies in 2003-2004, to measure “the degree of preparation of a nation or community to participate in and benefit from ICT developments”. Artificial Intelligence Applications Institute Artificial Intelligence Applications InstituteAIAI is a technology transfer organisation that promotes the application of Artificial Intelligence research for the benefit of commercial, industrial, and government clients. AIAI has considerable experience of working with small innovative companies, and with research groups in larger corporations. The key research areas of AIAI are:Planning and Activity Management: AIAI continues to be a world-leading center for planning and workflow; Knowledge Systems and Knowledge Modelling: the formal side of intelligent systems, concerned with models, ontologies and the methods for acquiring knowledge. AIAI is at the forefront of activity in knowledge representation and is active in the Semantic Web; Adaptive Systems: genetic algorithms, ant colony optimisation, evolving intelligent agents and robotic controllers, artificial life and applications to scheduling, and timetabling are active research areas; Bioinformatics: an important new application area for ontology and adaptive systems techniques. Some projects:Optimum-AIV: Planning and Scheduling of Spacecraft Assembly, Integration and TestOptimum-AIV is now being operationally applied to the strategic planning of the production of ARIANE IV equipment bays. This activity frequently requires the plans to be updated due to non-availability of equipment, and test failures. A consortium consisting of Computer Resources International A/S, Matra Marconi Space, Progespace and AIAI was responsible for the development of the European Space Agency (ESA) knowledge based system for the planning and scheduling of activities for spacecraft assembly, integration and verification (AIV). The system supports the entire AIV life cycle, i.e. not only scheduling of the activities but also monitoring of plan execution and the plan repair phases. State of the art knowledge based techniques have been applied in the planning/scheduling process: preconditions and effects on the spacecraft configuration of individual activities can be stated and used for verification of the plan logic. The system allows scheduling of activities to be performed either manually or automatically using resource levelling. Fraud Detection for FinanceAt the request of one of the UK’s most successful fraud detection system software providers, AIAI undertook an investigation into methods of applying new AI technologies to increase the accuracy of the already highly advanced systems presently in use. While the firm’s software presently reduces the number of necessary fraud investigations by several orders of magnitude, our investigation showed that utilising adaptive algorithms and fuzzy logic results in significant diagnostic improvement on the most difficult sub-section of cases. The goal of the work was to reduce the number of applications referred for costly manual investigation after the existing detection systems had been utilised. It was decided to use Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) for this end, a technique based on the intuition that new problems are often similar to previously encountered problems, and therefore, that past solutions may be of use in the current situation. The developed CBR system was able to prioritise the referred applications from the most to the least suspicious, aiding the decision process of the fraud investigator. Text AnalysisThe retrieval and analysis of scientific texts is an important service. Current keyword-based approaches are limited, and new techniques are needed to generate mark-up in a machine interpretable form (in RDF, for example). In recent research, Inductive Logic Programming has been applied to learn information extraction rules which locate instances of ontology relations in texts. Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events Special Events .January 26-28, 2005 .Summit for the Future 2005 .Club of Amsterdam Season 2004/2005 .October 27, 2004 the future of ICT .November 30, 2004 the future of Developing Countries .February 23, 2005 the future of the Service Industry .March 30, 2005 the future of Water .April 27, 2005 the future of Branding .June 1, 2005 the future of Robotics .June 29, 2005 the future of Philosophy .