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the future of Futurist Tools
Increasing complexity, uncertainty and disruptive change is provoking a surge of interest in longer-term thinking, better tools and early and broader warning systems.
Review: The Future of Software Architecture
The discussion after the speakers covered a wide scope of views. The heart of the discussion wasn’t really about software architecture, but more along the lines of people’s and society’s relationship with business.
How now wit! Whither wander you?
On november 30th the Club of Amsterdam organized its ‘Future of Software Architecture’ conference.
Club of Amsterdam Journal, January 2006, Issue 60
Content The Future Belongs to Those Who…Club of Amsterdam blogNews about the future of HealthcareNews about the Future Next Event Health And Wellness Healthcare Products in The Netherlands Summit for the Future blog Recommended Book The micro compact home AgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe The Future Belongs to Those Who… The Future Belongs to Those Who…A guide for thinking about the futureby Institute for Alternative Futures WHY THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE? The future is fundamentally uncertain, yet there are discernable directions, even if signs point to conflicting and multiple outcomes. For some, uncertainty justifies not thinking about the future, while for others the uncertainty is a source of opportunity. Without a concerted effort to be future-focused, organizations run grave risks of diminished importance or even oblivion in the fluctuating world of the early 21st century. Thinking about the future increases the likelihood of success in the long run. All of our experience is with the past, but all of our decisions are about the future. Many people have assumed that their past experience is a fairly reliable guide to the future—the future will simply be a bigger and better version of the world with which they are familiar. However, the pace of change now makes it clear to thoughtful people that continuity can no longer be taken for granted. In area after area today, we are confronted by true uncertainty: we really do not know what will happen, but we know it is going to happen more quickly. The future cannot be predicted. The word “futures” in futures studies is plural because there is no one preordained future that is fated to occur. Rather, there are many different possible alternative futures. Instead of predicting what the future will be, futurists use a wide range of methodologies to engage in structured and thoughtful speculation about future possibilities. This helps people prepare for whatever future comes, and positions them to be more able to create the future they prefer. Some of the methods futurists use to help organizations think about the future follow. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog January 04: How now wit! Whither wander you?January 04: Review: The future of Software ArchitectureJanuary 02: the future of Futurist ToolsDecember 02: Summit for the Future 2006 on Risk News about the future of Healthcare Drug Firms Make More Study Results PublicBy The Associated Press Drug companies are making public more information about medical studies they are conducting, but some still withhold key details, a new analysis of a federal registry finds. Merck & Co., stung by allegations that it hid information on Vioxx’s dangers, gets somewhat better marks in the new analysis than it did in an earlier one. However, Pfizer Inc., GlaxoSmithKline PLC and Novartis are lagging, according to the report in the New England Journal of Medicine. The registry was created in 2000 as part of an overhaul of the US Food and Drug Administration monitoring. It requires certain types of studies to be listed, such as late-stage experiments involving life-threatening illnesses like cancer. But it didn’t get wide participation from industry or many voluntary listings until September 2004, when editors of leading medical journals said they would no longer publish results of any studies that were not first listed in a public registry. Thinking the pain away?A University of Michigan study brain-scan study shows the body’s own painkillers may cause the “placebo effect”. The study provides the first direct evidence that the brain’s own pain-fighting chemicals, called endorphins, play a role in the phenomenon known as the placebo effect – and that this response corresponds with a reduction in feelings of pain. Previous studies at U-M and elsewhere have shown that the brain reacts physically when a person is given a sham pain treatment, which they believe will help them. But the new study is the first to pinpoint a specific brain chemistry mechanism for a pain-related placebo effect. It may help explain why so many people say they get relief from therapies and remedies with no actual physical benefit. And, it may lead to better use of cognitive, or psychological, therapy for people with chronic pain. News about the future IQ test Each year 10,000 people take the MENSA IQ test – 2,500 pass to become members. Over the last century, the UK’s average IQ has risen about 3 points every decade NASA’s Aerospace Technology Enterprise Goals for General Aviation “NASA isn’t just involved with space exploration. NASA also is involved with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in programs to develop a range of new technologies to protect America’s leadership role in aviation, including General Aviation (GA).” Invigorate the general aviation industry, delivering 10,000 aircraft annually within 10 years, and 20,000 aircraft annually within 25 years. Next Event: Wednesday, January 25, 16:30-19:15 the future of Futurist Tools how to improve your strategy and planning processes Wednesday, January 25, 2006Registration: 16:00-16:30, Conference: 16:30-19:15Where: PricewaterhouseCoopers, De Entree 201, 1101 HG Amsterdam Zuidoost, [next to the football stadium Arena] WithMichael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow:Business Futures in a Digital Age Patrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates, Director, Club of Amsterdam:The Death of A Strategist George Pór, Founder, CommunityIntelligence Ltd.:The New Wave of Futuring: Co-Sensing –> Co-Presencing –> Co-Creating and our Moderator Bert van Lamoen, Dean, EBBS International Business School Health And Wellness Healthcare Products in The Netherlands Health And Wellness Healthcare Products in The Netherlandsby Euromonitor Executive Summary Few specific legal requirements for health and wellness medicinesNormal registration procedures apply for health and wellness medicines, although products may not be classed as medicines if they make no specific medical claims. During 2005, the EU directive on food supplements will come into effect in the Netherlands and there is also discussion about the possibility of imposing new regulations on products formulated for children within the Dutch government. Market being driven by growing interest in self-medicationGrowth in the Dutch OTC health and wellness market is being driven by interest in self-medication and preventative therapies, with these changes being driven primarily by the soaring costs of health care in the Netherlands. This is particularly evident in vitamins and dietary supplements. One sector that is being driven by trends other than these is slimming products, where growth is resulting from increased awareness of health problems associated with excessive weight. Specific diet programmes are not popular in the Netherlands, with dieters preferring to make up their own programmes, which include meal replacement products. Vitamins and dietary supplements most important sectorVitamins and dietary supplements is the most important sector for both the OTC health and wellness market in the Netherlands and the overall OTC market as a whole, and these products are also showing the highest levels of growth. Growth for vitamins has been driven by expansions to the range of multivitamins and single vitamins offered by manufacturers, especially in products formulated for specific target groups or for treating specific ailments. Child-specific formulations have shown good growth levels, albeit from a low level of sales. However, volume has grown faster than value owing to heavy discounting in the Netherlands as a result of price wars in the retail sector that began in 2004. Dietary supplements are growing in importance, driven by increased sales of products for warding off seasonal ailments and those formulated for ailments associated with age. Dietary supplements will continue to show strong growth in the future. Interest in herbal and traditional products lowThe continued importance of homeopathic remedies in preference to herbal products means that sales of herbal products form a relatively minor share of OTC healthcare sales. Only within dietary supplements do herbal products dominate, constituting around 65% of sales in 2004. However, interest is growing in herbal medicines, with sales in cough, cold and allergy remedies in particular showing good levels of growth. This growth is being driven by increased interest in preventative medicine owing to rapidly rising costs of health care in the Netherlands. Within dietary supplements, interest in products for warding off seasonal ailments is driving sales growth, as well as rising levels of interest in products formulated for conditions generally affecting the elderly. Meal replacement products drive growth in slimming productsMeal replacement slimming products performed strongly over the review period, although few meal replacement products make any kind of medicinal claims. Sales benefited from the move to self-selection of these products in outlets from mid-2002 onwards. With regards to other types of slimming products such as slimming tablets, consumers do not generally feel that these products are effective and many will just buy them once. Going forward, growth will be strong for slimming products as awareness of overweight and obesity problems grows, but growth will be lower than in 2003 and 2004 as consumers increasingly choose healthier diets, rather than resorting to expensive, quick fixes. Summit for the Future 2006 on Risk May 3-5 Knowledge Stream:HealthcareThe most important thing for the future of healthcare is health and how medical practice fulfill the need of the core resource for the future: the self-perceived increasing quality of life. Health has gone from ‘not being ill’ to a quality, a potential. People will invest in this asset, not only in financial terms. The extent to which healthcare transformation is taking place varies from countries to countries and regions in parallel with their economic status. Integration of evidence-based preventional and complimentary strategies into mainstream practice will be required to save the healthcare system in an aging society. As countries strengthen their economies they will also have the possibility to adapt their healthcare systems to meet the needs of the people. More and more people will be looking for services that will help understanding one’s individual health profile and how this impacts personalised anti-aging and wellness strategies. There will be an increasing demand for affordable approaches for high-risk identification, early detection and effective risk factor allocation. Healthcare is becoming detached from the purely physical, from purely functional disorders. It will be focusing more and more on the whole person, on putting physical, mental and spiritual fragments back together. Healthcare policy makers need to be aware of these new developments and decisions need to made what healthcare research and what policies need to be implemented as a priority. The keynote speakers areChris De Bruijn, Chairman, Foundation, International Molecular Medicine Forum – IMMF: “My Genes, My Health” Coenraad K. van Kalken, General Director, NDDO, Director, National Institute for Prevention and Early Diagnostics (NIPED): NIPED Prevention Passport Gustav Dobos, Chair for Complementary and Integrative Medicine, University Duisburg-Essen, Germany: Integrating evidence based complimentary medicine into mainstream medicine Mercedes Lassus, Founder, Director, M Lassus Consulting Srl: Oncology prevention and early detection strategies Summit for the Future blog Summit for the Future bloghttp://summitforthefuture.blogspot.comJanuary 05: Asian Leadership in Trade and Associated RisksDecember 04: Strategic Leadership: Achieving Your Preferred FutureDecember 04: Finding Spiritual CourageDecember 04: Thinkers 50December 04: Risk: The Human AdventureDecember 04: Summit for the Future 2006 on Risk Recommended Book The Wisdom of Crowdsby James Surowiecki In this endlessly fascinating book, New Yorker columnist James Surowiecki explores a deceptively simple idea that has profound implications: large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant – better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, even predicting the future. This seemingly counterintuitive notion has endless and major ramifications for how businesses operate, how knowledge is advanced, how economies are (or should be) organized and how we live our daily lives. With seemingly boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, economic behaviorism, artificial intelligence, military history and political theory to show just how this principle operates in the real world. Despite the sophistication of his arguments, Surowiecki presents them in a wonderfully entertaining manner. The examples he uses are all down-to-earth, surprising, and fun to ponder. Why is the line in which you’re standing always the longest? Why is it that you can buy a screw anywhere in the world and it will fit a bolt bought ten-thousand miles away? Why is network television so awful? If you had to meet someone in Paris on a specific day but had no way of contacting them, when and where would you meet? Why are there traffic jams? What’s the best way to win money on a game show? Why, when you walk into a convenience store at 2:00 A.M. to buy a quart of orange juice, is it there waiting for you? What do Hollywood mafia movies have to teach us about why corporations exist? The Wisdom of Crowds is a brilliant but accessible biography of an idea, one with important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, conduct our business, and think about our world. The micro compact home The micro compact homeThe micro compact home [m-ch] is a lightweight, modular and mobile minimal dwelling for one or two people. Its compact dimensions of 2.6m cube adapt it to a variety of sites and circumstances, and its functioning spaces of sleeping, working – dining, cooking, and hygiene make it suitable for everyday use. Informed by aviation and automotive design and manufactured at the micro compact home production centre in Austria, the m-ch can be delivered throughout Europe with project individual graphics and interior finishes. The design of the micro compact home has been informed by the classic scale and order of a Japanese tea house, combined with advanced concepts and technologies in Europe. The tiny cube provides a double bed on an upper level and working table and dining space for four or five people on a lower level. The kitchen bar is accordingly arranged to serve these two levels. The entrance lobby has triple use and functions as a bathroom and drying space for clothing. Storage is provided off each of these four functioning spaces. O2 student village Club of Amsterdam Agenda NEW: Our Season Events are Wednesdays 16:30! 16:00-16:30 Registration16:30-17:45 Part I: Presentations17:45-18:15 Break: Drinks and evtl. live music18:15-19:15 Part II: Discussion Club of Amsterdam Season Events 2005/2006 .Jan 25 the future of Futurist Tools .Mar 1 the future of Electronic Identity .Mar 29 the future of Governance .Apr 26 the future of Drugs & Pharma .May 31 the future of Reputation Management .Jun 28 the future of Journalism / Ethics in Journalism Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …
Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2005, Issue 59
Content Asian Leadership in Trade and Associated RisksNews about the future of Trade in Asia News about the Future Next Event The convergence of gaming and broadcastRecommended BookSocial Cognitive Neuroscience Lab AgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Asian Leadership in Trade and Associated Risks Asian Leadership in Trade and Associated Risksby Evalueserve A Special Summit for the Future Report. World Trade: Emergence of Asia Asia’s journey from the 1997-98 financial crisis to being one of the world’s most dynamic regions in terms of trade, development and investment activity, can best be termed as a ‘Renaissance’. The world’s centre of economic gravity is shifting towards Asia, as it currently accounts for 27 percent of international trade. This growth is mainly driven by the exemplary performance of the emerging Asian countries, including China, India, Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam. The share of these emerging Asian countries in world trade increased from 13 percent in 1990 to 20 percent in 2004. The Asian region is gaining significance in merchandise as well as commercial services trade. Asia’s share in world merchandise exports and imports stands at 26.8 percent and 24 percent, respectively. The value of Asia’s merchandise exports and imports shot up by 25 percent and 27 percent, respectively, in 2004. The growth in exports from the region can be attributed to strong demand from the US, and intra-Asian trade, stoked by a recovery in electronics trade. Exports of commercial services increased at a fast rate of 27 percent in 2004, while imports were up 25 percent during the same period. Asian countries, such as India, China and the Philippines, are the most preferred destination today for outsourcing of business services, such as transaction processing, customer care centers, medical transcription, IT services and application development, high-end analytical services, R&D services, etc. Other commercial services, such as transportation services were strong in 2004, while travel receipts recovered by 31 percent during the year from exceptionally low levels in 2003 (due to the spread of SARS). Intra-regional trade as a share of total trade went up sharply to 41 percent in 2004, primarily due to intra-industry trade as a result of greater vertical specialisation and relocation of production processes. This is evident in the electronics sector, where capital intensive processes (like production of microchips) are carried out in high-income economies like Singapore and Korea, and labour intensive processes (like assembly of personal computers) are located in low income countries, such as China. Asia has integrated into a global production chain with some cities like Hong Kong and Singapore becoming the hub of manufacturing and trade. The dynamics of growth and development in Asia is a perfect illustration of how countries have used trade as a means of achieving greater degree of integration with the international economy. Region-specific factors have provided the stimulus for this growth.[…] Risks to Trade in AsiaIncluding Chapters about: Asian economies being net importers of energy, will be hard hit by a rise in global oil prices Infrastructure gaps exist in growing nations in Asia Inflation and interest rate rise would aggravate debt servicing burden and discourage investments Exchange Rates volatility hinders private capital inflows Outsourcing business prone to information security risk Logistics bottleneck might inhibit outsourcing of manufacturing to Asia Epidemics can curtail the GDP growth of the region Ageing population in China, Japan and Singapore is a source of concern Cultural differences can prove to be detrimental to growth Terrorism can lead to decreased FDI, decline in tourism, fiscal imbalances and unemployment Asia is prone to various kinds of natural disasters However, despite the risks and challenges faced by the region, trade in Asia is yet to reach its full potential. The emerging Asian region is expected to grow 6.6% in 2006 according to ADB estimates. The recent acceleration in growth promises to propagate further restructuring and reforms, which would create rich opportunities for stimulating faster trade growth within the region. In order to boost the growth momentum, Asia has to ensure that appropriate measures are taken to eradicate the risks prevailing in the region through economic cooperation amongst the Asian countries and continued structural reforms within individual economies. Evalueserve is a Knowledge Partner of the Summit for the Future 2006 on Risk – May 3-5, 2006. News about the future of Trade in Asia Vietnam Goes Globalby YaleGlobal The government embraces capitalism, but so far only for small businessesAlthough Vietnam had hoped to join the WTO before that body’s December ministerial meeting, an accession deal is not likely to finalized before mid-2006. Still, Vietnam’s eagerness to join the global trading system marks a noteworthy ideological shift for the ruling Communist Party, writes Jordan Ryan, the United Nations Development Program Representative in Hanoi. Vietnam’s Communist leaders once rejected capitalism, fearing that it would allow imperialist powers to maintain their hold over the country. Now the party has made trade and foreign investment a central part of its economic strategy. Vietnam’s re-integration into the world economy has proceeded at a breakneck pace, with exports of almost US$30 billion last year. Yet in its rush towards prosperity, concludes Ryan, the country must take care not to neglect its poorest citizens. Japanese investment in Indonesia to double The Indonesian government expects Japan’s investment and the value of export by Japanese companies in Indonesia to double in the coming five years. “Up to 2009 Japan’s investment in Indonesia is expected to grow to US$22 billion or double its present investment,” Aburizal, Minister of the Economy said at a component market exhibition with participants including 44 Japanese businessmen. He expressed optimism that the target of Japan’s investment will be met as the first-round negotiation between the Indonesian and Japanese governments on the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) has run smoothly. There are some 900 Japanese companies operating in Indonesia today with total investment of US$11 billion, and job opportunities for about 282,000 people. Their export value is expected to double in the coming five years. Their export and import value now account for 19.06% and 13.07% of the total value of Indonesia’s export and import, respectively. News about the future Numenta Numenta is developing a new type of computer memory system modeled after the human neocortex. The applications of this technology are broad and can be applied to solve problems in computer vision, artificial intelligence, robotics and machine learning.The Numenta technology, called Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM), is based on a theory of the neocortex described in Jeff Hawkins’ book entitled On Intelligence. The flimsiest clock in the world The Japanese watchmaker Citizen Watch Co. Ltd. created a flexible digital clock which is as thin as camera film and can be bent around the curve of a wall. The clock, measuring 53 by 130 centimeters (21.2 by 52 inches), displays time in black numbers using technology developed by E Ink of the United States. Next Event: Wednesday, January 25, 16:30-19:15 the future of Futurist Tools Wednesday, January 25, 2006Registration: 16:00-16:30, Conference: 16:30-19:15Where: PricewaterhouseCoopers, De Entree 201, 1101 HG Amsterdam Zuidoost, [next to the football stadium Arena] WithMichael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow:Business Futures in a Digital Age Patrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates, Director, Clubof Amsterdam: George Pór, Founder, CommunityIntelligence Ltd.:The New Wave of Futuring: Co-Sensing –> Co-Presencing –> Co-Creating and our Moderator Buddy R. Kluin, Co-founder and lead strategist, Y-now The convergence of gaming and broadcast The convergence of gaming and broadcast “Simply too beautiful”. This is how China’s usually conservative Internet Network Information Centre describes the numbers underpinning China’s online games market – and with good reason, even if the language is a little too sugary. With 2003 growth of at least 45 per cent and MMOGs (massive multiplayer online games) regularly attracting over 500,000 simultaneous players (numbers of over 1m are not uncommon), industry expectations indicate that China may become the world’s leading driver of online games before too long. China’s sports agencies have recognised online games as an official competitive sport, and market leading games publishers have recently listed on international stock markets. The surge of energy and investment presently characterising China’s games industry is extending to other sectors of the country’s digital creative industries. In a climate of liberalisation with a sharpening focus on building commercial fundamentals across the board, China’s digital industries – TV, publishing, film, radio – are helping boost GDP growth as well as helping promote what one might call the ‘China brand’. As the industries expand, they are likely to be shaped by growing domestic interest in positioning China – Chinese design and creative talent and inspiration, Chinese content, Chinese language, Chinese technology, Chinese brands – both at home and abroad. Just consider some more startling statistics: 2,000-plus TV channels, 400m TV homes and 100m cable homes; 31 film studios, 7,000 cinemas (54 digital – soon to be 100; I-Max describes China as its fastest growing market) and an expanding number of movie channels; 2,000 radio channels with rising advertising values driven by an upsurge in private car ownership (estimated 12m in 2003); close to 10,000 magazine titles and expanding book imports; and 13.8m online gamers, a figure which some say could rise to more than 40m by 2007.[Source: China-Britain Business Council] 2000 2005 2010 Console Hardware 4,791 3,894 5,771 Console Software 9,451 13,055 17,164 Handheld Hardware 1,945 3,855 1,715 Handheld Software 2,872 4,829 3,113 PC Software 5,077 4,313 2,955 Broadband 70 1,944 6,352 Interactive TV 81 786 3,037 Mobile 65 2,572 11,186 Total 24,352 35,248 51,292 Source: Informa Telecoms & Media Adam Thomas, media research manager at Informa Telecoms & Media: “We are now talking about the games sector as a near-$60 billion business, which is an impressive number. But there are still some issues to be tackled. Broadband games are doing well, but will gain at the expense of the PC market which is in irreversible decline. The Interactive TV sector is still looking for a business model and there is also the issue of piracy to consider. We have calculated that the industry will lose $6.6 billion to piracy in 2005 and, if unchecked, that could rise to more than $9 billion in 2010.” “In the United States, wireless games will experience the fastest growth rate, increasing from $281 million in 2004 to $2.1 billion in 2009, a 49.3 percent compount annual increase.”“In EMEA, as in most other regions, the market for PC games will continue to deteriorate as a result of the migration to newer technologies. PC game sales are projected to decline from $771 million in 2004 to $655 million in 2009.”“The video game market in Asia/Pacific, the largest market, at $10.1 billion in 2004, is projected to maintain it’s leadership, growing by 18.0 percent on a componund annual rate through 2009, reaching $23.1 billion.”“Latin America is the only region to exhibit growth in the PC game market because of limited competition from the new technologies of online and wireless games.”“Canada has one of the highest broadband penetration rates in the world, spurring growth in the online game segment.”[Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers] By 2010, worldwide games download revenues will have reached almost €7bn and there will be more than 2bn games enabled mobile handsets in the marketplace. More recently, Japan and Korea, traditionally the powerhouses of the mobile games industry, have now been overtaken by Europe and America in terms of mobile games revenues. This year, Europe and America will account for more than 50% of global revenues. [Source: Screen Digest] Digital broadcast TV (DTV) combines the two best-selling consumer products in history – TVs and mobile phones. TV will be an ingredient that drives demand for the next generation of wireless mobile phones because consumers want both communications and entertainment – all in one place and in one device. It is currently assumed that users will “snack” on 15-20 minutes of TV programming at a time to catch up on news, sports, weather, major events such as the World Cup or Olympics, and more in real-time using their mobile phone at speeds comparable to watching their TV at home. At every level of the mobile DTV value-chain carriers, handset providers, infrastructure owners, content providers, broadcasters and semiconductor suppliers are putting increased efforts behind their mobile DTV plans. And for good reason — according to Vision Gain, the mobile DTV handset market is expected to grow to over 105 million units by 2009 from the expected five million units in 2005. [Source: Texas Instruments] Summit for the Future 2006 on RiskMedia & Entertainmentthe future of Virtual Lifestyle Much of today’s media is dominated by sports – including football, athletics, cricket, volleyball, motocross, horse-racing, snooker and golf. Entire broadcasting, advertising, media and gaming industries rely on it. They feed off the passion it arouses within ordinary people. Players are traded as commodities as part of multi-million deals, while their intimate moments are the subject of popular envy and public press scrutiny. Perhaps, one day, all this and more will feed off the virtual gaming industry too. In the meantime, some musicians are composing songs for first release in computer games and video producers are using gaming technology to design real-world TV sets, interaction scenarios for mobile phones and prepare shotlists before shooting a movie. Are we at risk if these virtual and real-world lifestyles are interacting so closely? Where do social media like blogs fit in? Ultimately, the convergence of gaming and broadcast is not just a new medium but a whole new world. Recommended Book Global Future : The Next Challenge for Asian Businessby Arnoud DeMeyer, Peter Williamson, Frank-Jürgen Richter, Pamela C. M. Mar Provides a descriptive analysis of the globalization challenge for East Asian Firms and a prescriptive framework of how Asian firms can manage the internationalisation process. The book will contain: – An introduction on the internationalisation challenges specific to the Asian firm and the outline of a model on internationalisation in Asia– A series of 8 case studies written by CEOs, illustrating different aspects of internationalisation in Asia. Social Cognitive Neuroscience Lab Social Cognitive Neuroscience LabSocial cognitive neuroscience (SCN) focuses on how the human brain carries out social information processing. SCN is an interdisciplinary field that asks questions about topics traditionally of interest to social psychologists (such as emotion regulation, attitude change, or stereotyping) using methods traditionally employed by cognitive neuroscientists (such as functional brain imaging and neuropsychological patient analysis). By integrating the theories and methods of its parent disciplines, SCN seeks to understand socioemotional phenomena in terms of interactions between the social (socioemotional cues, contexts, experiences, and behaviors), cognitive (information processing mechanisms), and neural (brain bases) levels of analysis. Research Projects How Are Our Emotions Generated? The Nature of Emotional Appraisal For centuries, theorists have posited that emotions are generated by appraisals, or interpretations, of the significance of events to one’s current goals, wants, or needs. The precise nature of these appraisal processes, and the extent to which they can generate emotions quickly and automatically as compared slowly and deliberately, is not clear. This research project uses fMRI to examine the role of automatic and controlled processes in interpreting or appraising emotional events. How Do We Regulate Our Emotions? The Mechanisms of Cognitive Reappraisal If thinking can generate feelings, it surely can alter them as well. Indeed, the ability to cognitively reappraisal meaning of events is one of our most powerful means of regulating emotional responses. Until recently, no research and addressed the fundamental psychological and neural processes that enable us to reappraise. This project examines the way in which reappraisal stems from interactions between neural systems supporting cognitive control processes on the one hand, and neural systems supporting emotional appraisal processes on the other. Understanding What We’re Thinking, Feeling, and Intending One of the key component processes of both appraisal and reappraisal is the ability to draw inferences, or make attributions, about the nature of our own feelings, desires, and intentions as well as the feelings, desires, and intentions experienced by others. This ability is often discussed in the context of theory of mind, but the relationship between theory of mind processes and those used for emotional appraisal has only just begun to be investigated. This project asks whether there are central mechanisms enabling us to draw inferences about mental states, and what role they play in emotion and social cognition. Understanding Who We Are An ability closely related to understanding momentary mental states is the ability to draw inferences about enduring aspects of our personality, traits, and dispositions, as well as the same attributes possessed by other people. This project examines the way in which we understand ourselves to possess traits and abilities (e.g. outgoing, trustworthy, etc.), and whether we think about the traits possessed by others in the same way we think about our own traits. Empathy The ability to empathically connect with another person and understand what they are thinking and feeling is so essential to human social interaction that empathic impairments may profoundly disrupt one’s ability to function normally in the world (as is the case in autism). Empathy may depend importantly on the appraisal and social cognitive processes used to generate emotions and understand their interpersonal implications. This project seeks to understand many aspects of empathy, including the nature of the mental representations that underlie it, and the extent to which empathic ability is automatic as compared to deliberate and controlled. Club of Amsterdam Agenda NEW: Our Season Events are Wednesdays 16:30! 16:00-16:30 Registration16:30-17:45 Part I: Presentations17:45-18:15 Break: Drinks and evtl. live music18:15-19:15 Part II: Discussion Club of Amsterdam Season Events 2005/2006 .Jan 25 the future of Futurist Tools .Mar 1 the future of Electronic Identity .Mar 29 the future of Governance .Apr 26 the future of Drugs & Pharma .May 31 the future of Reputation Management .Jun 28 the future of Journalism / Ethics in Journalism Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Are you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform – and it’s for free …
Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2005, Issue 58
Content Corporate Longitude: What You Need to Know to Navigate the Knowledge EconomyNews about the future of Life Sciences News about the Future Next Event The European Approach to Corporate Governance: A Model for Japan?Recommended Book FLY Pentop Computer Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Corporate Longitude: What You Need to Know to Navigate the Knowledge Economy Leif EdvinssonCEO, Universal Networking Intellectual Capital Corporate Longitude: What You Need to Know to Navigate the Knowledge EconomyBy Leif Edvinsson Leif Edvinsson is a keynote speaker at our Summit for the Future on Risk [May 3-5, 2006] in the Life Science Knowledge Stream. He is considered the world’s leading intellectual capital ‘guru’. It is wise to have some idea of where you are going. In the knowledge economy it’s equally important to be prepared to change direction at a moment’s notice. In business, we too often know all about our latest financial position without having any idea of our real or potential position. Do you know where you’re going in the knowledge economomy? Where do we register the resignation of a key person? Where do we register the loss of a key customer? or the success of a key project? The measures by which we all manage only give us half an understanding of where we are or where we’re going. In 1675, King Charles II of England set up the Royal Observatory, tasked with finding a method of accurately determining longitude at sea. A similar challenge currently faces the business world.Modern corporations habitually calibrate along a single measure: a financial one. This is corporate latitude. The trouble is that it only gives part of the picture, only half of the co-ordinates required to know their precise location and to map out the route to their destination. Without a practicable method for measuring corporate longitude – a measurement for intellectual capital – companies are unable to locate their true position or chart a meaningful course. Intellectual capital is a combination of human capital – the brains, skills, insights and potential of those in an organization – and structured capital – wrapped up in customers, processes, databases, brands and systems. It is the only meaningful way to gauge the potential energy of a company. Corporate Longitude provides a way to measure these intangibles as well as the financial facts, and to navigate accurately through the turbulent waters of business. With the rise of the knowldge economy, the search for corporate longitude is on. The the founding guru of intellectual capital knows where to find it, and here provdes a compass for the entrepreneurial knowledge leader. Find out how intelligent enterprising will set apart the new navigators of knowldge markets.“Our journey in Corporate Longitude has a number of important markers. The first is that I believe there is a new commercial reality — knowledge economics — which transforms the concept of value and of value creation. Intangibles, such as intelligence, brands, trust and networks, are the driving force of knowledge economics.” “The rise of knowledge economics highlights a mismatch between current financial reporting systems and intellectual assets – these I see as akin to corporate latitude and corporate longitude. One without the other gets us nowhere.” Leif Edvinsson has been elected as one of the Thinkers 50 – the 2005 global ranking of business thinkers. News about the future of Life Sciences Simile Life SciencesLife science is, at root, a collaborative discipline. Each scientist draws upon the canon of knowledge, established through experimentation and verified through peer review and publication. But modern technological approaches to managing data and papers in the life sciences in many cases can make the discovery process harder. Data is stored in different formats, exposed in different interfaces, and knowledge is locked up in document formats that don’t bring the full power of computation to bear on behalf of the individual scientist. In many ways, the researcher is forced to play a complex strategy without a map. The Simile project seeks to enhance inter-operability among digital assets, schemata/vocabularies/ontologies, metadata, and services by using Semantic Web technologies. A key challenge is that the collections which must inter-operate are often distributed across individual, community, and institutional stores. While the domain focus of the Simile project is in Digitial Libraries, the problem is a very similar one to many other domains. Export as you would be exported to…by NewScientist.comHaving spent 10 years insisting it should be free to export GM crops and food, the US is realising other countries may ask them to return the favour The genetically modified chickens are coming home to roost. Having spent the past decade insisting that it should be free to export GM crops and foods derived from them, the US is waking up to the possibility that it may soon be asked to accept imports of similar GM material from other countries, such as China and Argentina, which are now producing more than they consume. News about the future eNergency manifesto Inspired by Jeremy Rifkin’s vision of the Hydrogen Economy, the ENERGENCY Manifesto joins a selected number of Regional Governments wanting to engage in the battle to preserve our biosphere according to the Kyoto Protocol and beyond it.You can download the manifesto as a *.pdf Astronomy Picture of the Day Discover the cosmos! Each day a different image or photograph of our fascinating universe is featured, along with a brief explanation written by a professional astronomer. Next Event: Wednesday, January 25, 16:30-19:15 the future of Futurist Tools Wednesday, January 25, 2006Registration: 16:00-16:30, Conference: 16:30-19:15Where: PricewaterhouseCoopers, De Entree 201, 1101 HG Amsterdam Zuidoost, [next to the football stadium Arena]Please download the route description With Michael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow:Business Futures in a Digital Age Patrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates, Director, Clubof Amsterdam: George Pór, Founder, CommunityIntelligence Ltd.:The New Wave of Futuring: Co-Sensing –> Co-Presencing –> Co-Creating and our Moderator Buddy R. Kluin, Co-founder and lead strategist, Y-now The European Approach to Corporate Governance: A Model for Japan? The European Approach to Corporate Governance: A Model for Japan?Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)Interview with Professor MayerProfessor Mayer is Peter Moores Professor of Management Studies at the Saïd Business School and director of the Oxford Financial Research Centre, University of Oxford. Professor Mayer has written widely on corporate finance, taxation and corporate governance, and on the regulation of financial markets. […]RIETI: In the last couple of years, the EU and many European countries have developed new corporate governance codes such as the Combined Code in the UK and the Cromme Code in Germany. Why did European reformers opt for code-writing instead of imposing strict rules like the Sarbanes-Oxley Act? Mayer: The importance of codes in Europe stems from two factors. The first is that, while in the U.S., shareholders’ rights are typically upheld through the courts, this is less prevalent in Europe. Instead, there is a greater reliance on companies abiding by codes of conduct that, if they fail to adhere to, may result in their exclusion from capital markets in the future. Second, there is a greater diversity in ownership structures in Europe that makes the imposition of common legal rules difficult. An example of this is the problem that the European Commission encountered in introducing a takeover directive that imposed common rules for conducting takeovers in Europe. Governance codes, particularly those of the “comply or explain” form, permit of a greater degree of variety of conduct than laws.RIETI: In your paper, “The Origins of the German Corporation – Finance, Ownership and Control,” you analyze the financing and ownership of German corporations. Given the similarities in ownership structure between German and Japanese corporations, what measures Japan can take to strengthen investor protection? Mayer: While there are some similarities in the structure of German and Japanese corporate sectors, and while they have common origins, the similarities should not be overstated. The ownership and financing of firms is quite different. The size of shareholdings, the nature of shareholdings, and in particular the role of families is very different between the two countries. And while both Germany and Japan are described as bank-oriented financial systems, their differences are as pronounced as their similarities. For example, German banks have played a much more important role in the functioning of stock markets than in the direct financing of firms, which has been an important feature of Japan. Care should therefore be taken in trying to draw conclusions about the relevance of policies to protect investors in Germany for those in Japan. A critical question that Japan needs to address as it moves away from its traditional system of bank monitoring is who will play the main monitoring role of companies in the future that banks have played in the past. Will it, as it has been in the UK and U.S., other financial institutions such as pension funds and life insurance firms? If so, is it envisaged that a takeover market will emerge, as exists in the UK and U.S., to discipline bad management and restructure poorly performing firms. Or are large blocks expected to accumulate in the hands of individual and family investors as they have done in many Continental European and Far Eastern countries? Or is it the case that banks will be expected to play the type of custodianship function that they perform in Germany? Identifying who will be performing active corporate governance is the critical issue that Japan will need to address going forward. Recommended Book Rights And Liberties In The Biotech Ageby Bill McKibben (Foreword), Paul R. Billings (Afterword), Sheldon Krimsky (Editor), Peter Shorett Rights and Liberties in the Biotech Age is the first book reaching broadly into biotechnology that imbeds the issues into a rights framework for the social management of technology. The contributors to the volume comprise prominent university scientists, civil rights lawyers, and public interest activists who bring their perspectives to issues where science and civil liberties meet head on. This book explores the impact of new genetic technologies on how people define their “personhood” and their basic civil liberties. It questions the thesis of “scientism” where “rights” must adapt and conform to technological changes. Instead, the authors explore the expansion of human rights in the face of new biomedical and bio-agricultural advances so that “rights” and not “technologies” are at the forefront of discussion. FLY pentop computer FLY Pentop Computer Computer power on paper! FLY pentop computer’s power comes from an optical scanner that sees everything you scan and write on special dot-matrix FLY paper. It’s got a brain (a built-in computer processor) and it’s got a voice. It’s even got its own language. If you’ve got a math problem, FLY pentop computer can solve it. You can schedule anything and FLY pentop computer will remind you. You can draw drums and keyboards and record your own tunes. Play games with your friends – anywhere, any time! What it Teaches MathChildren learn important mathematical concepts and processes in the areas of numbers and operations (e.g., addition, division), algebra, geometry, measurement, data analysis and probability, and math reasoning (e.g., recognizing and describing connections between problems). Children begin to develop math skills as infants and expand upon their understanding as they get older. Reading & LanguageLanguage arts refers to the elements of language use – typically oral language (speech); listening; reading; and writing, including spelling and vocabulary. Reading refers to the process of understanding a written, linguistic message; the process of obtaining meaning from printed language; or the process of orally expressing printed language in a meaningful way. ScienceEach branch of science (earth, life and physical) deals with the structure and behavior of the physical world, and includes the systematic observation, identification, experimentation and investigation used to determine general laws about the physical world. Children begin to develop science skills as infants and expand upon their understanding as they get older. Club of Amsterdam Agenda NEW: Our Season Events are Wednesdays 16:30! 16:00-16:30 Registration16:30-17:45 Part I: Presentations17:45-18:15 Break: Drinks and evtl. live music18:15-19:15 Part II: Discussion Club of Amsterdam Season Events 2005/2006 .Jan 25 the future of Futurist Tools .Mar 1 the future of Electronic Identity .Mar 29 the future of Governance .Apr 26 the future of Drugs & Pharma .May 31 the future of Reputation Management .Jun 28 the future of Journalism / Ethics in Journalism Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Are you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform – and it’s for free …
the future of Futurist Tools, January 2006
Club of Amsterdam pdf version Supporter PricewaterhouseCoopers Michael Jackson Business Futures in a Digital Age Increasing complexity, uncertainty and disruptive change is provoking a surge of interest in longer-term thinking, better tools and early and broader warning systems. Dr. Mike Jackson will share his extensive knowledge of the changes being made to strategy and planning systems by forward-thinking organisations and how leading edge suppliers are delivering new capabilities to make the processes quicker, all-encompassing and collaborative. Patrick Crehan The Death of A Strategist A context of complexity, uncertainty and rapid change for both private enterprise and public life will lead to a steady increase in the delegation of responsibility for decision-making away from traditional centers of control. This will create the need for organisations to continuously re-visit, re-vise and re-envision their plans and strategic positions. Decisions large and small will be made using participatory approaches. They will incorporate the latest information available. This will create a burden of work for which existing tools are inadequate. It will lead to a re-distribution of responsibilities for which most organisations are ill-prepared. Patrick Crehan looks at how the nature of decision-making is changing and how it will continue to change in the future. He looks at associated changes in the burden of work, shifts in the location of responsibility that this implies and the challenges that decision support systems of the future will need to address. He provides a vision of the future of decision-making in both private enterprise and public life. Related Reading: ‘The Wisdom of Crowds’ by James Surowiecki. The subtitle of this book is ‘Why the Many are Smarter than the Few’ and ‘How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations’. The final chapter is especially interesting in that it considers the future of democracy as a form of collaborative decision-making. George Pór The New Wave of Futuring: Co-Sensing –> Co-Presencing –> Co-Creating This will be an experiential introduction to the “U model” featured in Presence: Human Purpose and the Field of the Future, co-authored by Peter Senge, C. Otto Scharmer, Joseph Jaworski and Betty Sue Flowers. Suggested Reading: Introduction to THEORY U: Leading from the Emerging Future Presencing as Social Technology of Freedom by C. Otto Scharmer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology www.ottoscharmer.com 16:30 Welcome by our Moderator Bert van Lamoen, Dean, EBBS International Business School 16:45 Part I: Michael Jackson, Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow: Business Futures in a Digital Age Patrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates, Director, Club of Amsterdam: The Death of A Strategist George Pór, Founder, CommunityIntelligence Ltd.: The New Wave of Futuring: Co-Sensing –> Co-Presencing –> Co-Creating 17:45 Coffee break with drinks and snacks. 18:15 Part II: Panel with the Speakers and our Moderator Bert van Lamoen The panel is followed by an open discussion. Michael Jackson Chairman, Shaping Tomorrow Mike is a Founder Member and Chairman of Shaping Tomorrow a unique web based futures, strategy and change management portal for corporate innovation and risk management. His specific area of research is sustainable business futures. He is known on conference platforms speaking on business subjects including futures, sustainability, customer loyalty and retention, business process re-engineering, change management, building strategic visions and values and people motivation and communications, ethics, alliances and corporate governance: he has many published articles and book contributions on these subjects. With over 30 years’ experience in Business Management in the UK, North America and Europe, he has significant exposure to corporate banking and consumer finance and, latterly, futuring. Mike was Chief Executive of Birmingham Midshires Building Society between 1990 and 1998, then the UK’s 4th largest. As Chief Executive of Birmingham Midshires he achieved a dramatic change for the better in the Society’s fortunes moving from near oblivion to a highly profitable, customer led and multiple-award winning business in just eight years. He was previously a Senior Vice President with Bank of America who he joined in 1986. He held several positions at the Bank which included Head of Europe, Middle East and Africa operations, based in London, Head of Consumer Loans Services and Chief Financial Officer for consumer markets, based in North America (San Francisco). After spells with Hawker Siddeley, the Electricity Boards and the Post Office he began his financial services career in 1973 with Citibank NA as its first overseas process engineer, based in London. He then transferred to Italy, with subsidiary Citifin Finanziara as Chief Financial Officer and Vice President, later moving back to the UK with Citibank Savings as Vice President and Customer Services Director, and subsequently Consumer Banking Director. He studied at Salford University, Manchester, and holds a Bachelor of Science in Electronics and a U.S. accredited MBA in Operations Research. He was conferred an Honorary Doctorate in Business Administration by the University of Wolverhampton in 1997. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, the Chartered Institutes of Bankers and Marketing and the Institutes of Directors and Management Services, as well as a Companion of the Institute of Management. He is a full member of the Strategic Planning Society, the Association of Professional Futurists and the World Future Society. Mike’s interests include being Managing Director of a Legal Financial Services Processing Business for an International Firm of Lawyers and a strategic board member of the Customer Service Network. He is a member of the advisory board of European Futurists and sits on the Board of the Society of Genealogists in the UK. www.shapingtomorrow.com Patrick Crehan CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & Associates Director, Club of Amsterdam In 1996, after a career as a mathematical physicist in Europe and Japan, Patrick Crehan left academia to work at the European Commission Directorate General for Industry. Working in international collaboration on research in Information and Communication Technologies, he traveled extensively in countries of the Mediterranean basin, Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe using international research collaboration as a policy tool for industrial and economic development. In 1998 he left the Commission to work as an independent consultant in international RTD, industrial and economic development policy. In 1999 he founded CKA – Crehan, Kusano & Associates. CKA is inspired by the conviction that the most important source of competitive advantage today is an ability to organize and manage knowledge-intensive activities such as research, innovation, learning & communication. CKA designs and manages processes that support complex-creative tasks in industry, society and government administration. It develops and adapts technologies to support these processes. It conducts research on management-as-work, on technologies to support organization-and-management tasks, as well as on the nature and organization of work in an age of constant change. George Pór Founder, CommunityIntelligence Ltd. Former Senior Research Fellow at INSEAD George is an executive coach/mentor and facilitator of transformation in human and organisational capabilities to evolve. A sociologist by education and master learner by passion, he has been designing and guiding virtual communities in business for more than 20 years. During that time, he has been discovering and inventing many ways to accelerate the emergence of collective intelligence in groups and organizations. He is a learning partner to leaders in business and government in matters of innovation, change management and value-creation with communities of practice and knowledge networks. George’s signature projects include: the launch of the first online course on communities of practice, co-taught with Etienne Wenger in 1998; the web-based Knowledge Ecology Fair where 400 knowledge managers from around the world participated in virtual workshops and online café conversations exploring organic and grassroots alternatives to KM. After serving as Senior Research Fellow at INSEAD (2001-2002), he moved to the Complexity Research Group at London School of Economics. George is Chairman and Founder of CommunityIntelligence Ltd. He is the author of “Liberating the Innovation Value of Communities of Practice” in the forthcoming textbook on “Knowledge Economics: Emerging Principles, Practices and Policies.” His past clients include: Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, EDS, European Foundation for Management Development, Gulf Canada, Hewlett Packard, INSEAD, Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Sun Microsystems, Swiss Re, and Unilever. www.community-intelligence.com Bert van Lamoen Dean, EBBS International Business School Expert, Club of Amsterdam Bert studied science of communication (Utrecht) and comparative culture in Switzerland (Zurich/Lugano) with specialization : corporate culture. He holds a Master Degree (M.A. summa cum laude). Post graduate studies: futurology (Prof. Polak, Galtung), psychology prof. R. Hauben (Menninger Foundation, USA), P. Vroon (Utrecht), pedagogy/education prof. M.Langeveld (Utrecht), economics (prof. A. Heertje, Uni. Amsterdam). Comparative culture: prof. M. Buber, D. Flusser , S. Safrai (Uni.Jerusalem), prof. E. Levinas, prof. Ranganathananda (Delhi), Prof. A. Takizawi (Japan), Prof. Liu (Beijng), On dialogue: prof. M. Buber, E. Levinas, D. Bohm (U.K). And studied/worked with paradigm changers such as H. van Praag, I. Prigogine, F.A. Popp and E. Jantsch. He is a born generalist with some specialization in creating/facilitating network organizations, the Knowledge Economy and CSR (Corporate Social Accountability). For 20 years he has been teaching at universities and business schools all over the world, he was e.g. visiting professor at: IIB (Institute of International Business) Stockholm School of Economics (Sweden), University of Basel (Switzerland), Free University Brussels (Belgium), University Delhi (India), Nijenrode Business School (the Netherlands), IBS (International Business School) Nanjing University (China), IBS (International Business School), ESAMI (East and South Africa Management Institute), MsM (Maastricht School of Management), University of Amsterdam, Business School. He worked for organizations like the Shell (scenario planning and futurology), Pandata/Gap Gemini, the Dutch Ministery of Health (WVC), the European Commission (Brussels), Interbrew, Homeoropa/Steigerwald, MSD, Byk, Dolisos, Biotics, TS products, Boehringer, PTT Telecom, Serono-the Ares Group, Green Foods Corporation, Reisemus & de Frel, the ING Bank and the Ordina Institute for Research and Innovation (ICT). He (co-) authored 6 books and 40 articles and was editor in chief for Ankh Hermes (NL) and Haug Verlag (D). And was/is actively part of think-and-do-tanks like the European Edge (Denmark). As entrepreneur he managed three companies of his own – most successfully a publishing firm. He sees himself first and foremost as an entrepreneur, innovator, teacher and personal coach. Bert is married and has a son and a daughter; his favourite sport: snowboarding. His latest endeavour: dean of EBBS International Business School – one of the first change agent business schools in the world and a global entrepreneurial and educational network with focus on modern, value based entrepreneurship. www.ebbs.eu
Club of Amsterdam Journal, November 2005, Issue 57
Content The Top 10 Elements of Good Software DesignNews about the future of Software Architecture News about the Future Next Event Cockpit in a acoustic wallRecommended Book GlobalSourcingNOW Finding Spiritual Courage: Risking the Unfamiliar to Have the Future We Want AgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe The Top 10 Elements of Good Software Design Much is spoken of “good design” in the software world. It is what we all aim for when we start a project, and what we hope we still have when we walk away from the project. But how do we assess the “goodness” of a given design? Can we agree on what constitutes a good design, and if we can neither assess nor agree on the desirable qualities of a design, what hope have we of producing such a design? You know you’ve achieved perfection in design, not when you have nothing more to add, but when you have nothing more to take awayAntoine de Saint-Exupery Much is spoken of “good design” in the software world. It is what we all aim for when we start a project, and what we hope we still have when we walk away from the project. But how do we assess the “goodness” of a given design? Can we agree on what constitutes a good design, and if we can neither assess nor agree on the desirable qualities of a design, what hope have we of producing such a design? It seems that many software developers feel that they can recognize a good design when they see or produce one, but have difficulty articulating the characteristics that design will have when completed. I asked three former colleagues – Tedious Soporific, Sparky and WillaWonga – for their “Top 10 Elements of Good Software Design”. I combined these with my own ideas, then filtered and sorted them based upon personal preference and the prevailing wind direction, to produce the list you see below. A big thanks to the guys for taking the time to write up their ideas. Below, for your edification and discussion, is our collective notion of theTop 10 Elements of Good Software Design, from least to most significant. That is, we believe that a good software design … 10. Considers the Sophistication of the Team that Will Implement It 9. Uniformly Distributes Responsibility and Intelligence 8. Is Expressed in a Precise Design Language 7. Selects Appropriate Implementation Mechanisms 6. Is Robustly Documented 5. Eliminates Duplication 4. Is Internally Consistent and Unsurprising 3. Exhibits Maximum Cohesion and Minimum Coupling 2. Is as Simple as Current and Foreseeable Constraints will Allow 1. Provides the Necessary Functionality full article News about the future of Software Architecture Architecting Industry Standards for Service Orientationby Josh Lee, Microsoft Corporation Many messages that flow among businesses are formatted to specific industry standards. As we move toward Web services and service orientation the payloads can add value to the messaging infrastructure in a flexible, interoperable, composable way. “If we can assume that service orientation is going to be a core part of our architectural palette for years to come, then we have to find a way to build and incorporate industry standards into that architecture. Granular construction of service messaging and tight correlation among service signature, metadata, and schema instance provide instant benefits when constructing a flexible and high-performance, standards-based Web service. The key to interoperability is in the ability to process the incoming and outgoing messages effectively. Clear type definition and composition from a comprehensive data dictionary gives architects the ability to compose nearly any message in their service-oriented architecture. Since they are based in the industry standards, those messages will be compliant. Standards purists will harangue me with epithets, but the fact remains that in order to remove application silos through messaging interoperability you must use fast and flexible standards-based payloads in a service-oriented environment. This can only happen as service providers and schema architects are able to assemble multipurpose standards-based schemas. You can accomplish this through more flexible schema composition and importation methods. With these methods, the future of industry standard messaging and Web service architecture become closely aligned.” Developing Secure Softwareby Noopur Davis, Software Engineering Institute Most security vulnerabilities result from defects that are unintentionally introduced in the software during design and development. Therefore, to significantly reduce software vulnerabilities, the overall defect content of software must be reduced. Defect reduction is a pre-requisite for secure software development, but it is not enough. Security must also be deeply integrated into the full software development life cycle (SDLC). ConclusionSince common software defects are a leading cause of vulnerabilities, the overall defect content of software must be reduced. Next, security must be systematically addressed throughout the software development life cycle. There must be a shift in attitude from “bolting security on” after the fact, to “building security in” as the product is being developed. This requires that good software engineering practices are followed while the software is being developed, including multiple defect removal activities. News about the future ArtcousticDanish Loudspeaker company Artcoustic is recognized worldwide for high performance and aesthetic beauty. The majority of speakers in the product line are thin- as slim as 67mm – and hang on the wall like picture frames. They have effectively erased the distinction between a loudspeaker and furnishing, yet remain true to their intended purpose: MoCo Loco MoCo Loco is a web magazine featuring modern contempo- rary design news and views. Currently reporting from 100% Design Tokyo. Next Event: Wednesday, November 30, 16:30-19:15 the future of Software Architecture Wednesday, November 30, 2005Registration: 16:00-16:30, Conference: 16:30-19:15Where: Syntens, De Ruyterkade 5, 1013 AA Amsterdam WithMaarten Boasson, Professor, Chair, Industrial Complex Computer Systems, University of Amsterdam: Do we want to keep software architecture alive? Maarten Visser, Performance, Productivity and Integration Evangelist, BPMi Business Systems: The future of web communities Bert Oosterhof, Corporate Senior Architect and Director of Technology EMEA, Informatica Europe: Software architecture adjustments for a changing business and our Moderator Karel van der Poel, CEO & Co-founder, Mirror42 Cockpit in an acoustic wall Cockpit in an acoustic wallby Kas Oosterhuisthe brief was to combine an acoustic barrier with an industrial building · we decided to design with a speed of 120 km/h to streamline the concept by looking at our design in a telescopic perspective · we have studied the splines of cars, powerboats and jetplanes which are streamlined to diminish drag · along the A2 highway the acoustic barrier and the industrial buildings themselves do not move but they are placed aside a continuous stream of cars passing by · the stream of cars flows at a speed of 120 km/h along the acoustic barrier · as a consequence we decided that the proportions of the built volumes immersed in the acoustic dike should be boldly stretched along the length of the dike · the building, as a body fused with the solid mass of earth of the dike, is experienced as a streamlined cockpit · animation studies indicate that a cockpit described by one powerful spline on top of the acoustic barrier provokes the strongest impact · the cockpit functions as a 3d logo for other industrial facilities hidden behind the acoustic barrier · the most striking design principle is the use of long continuous lines · supple splines which do not have an explicit beginning and not an abrupt end · reaching the actual volume of the cockpit the lines divide into a top and a bottom line · between these smoothly curved lines the cockpit building is inserted with the precision of a plastic surgeon · the overall impact must be confirmed by a strong detail: an extra barrier at the top of the body of the acoustic barrier – shaped as a standard guard-rail – cuts into the top of the cockpit and sinks gradually into a deep gutter · the main design rule determines that the length of the cockpit has to measure at least 10 times its height · this rule guarantees that the cockpit keeps its smooth appearance when passed by at a speed of 120 km/h Recommended Book Patterns of Enterprise Application Architectureby Martin Fowler Noted software engineering expert, Martin Fowler, turns his attention to enterprise application development. He helps professionals understand the complex–yet critical–aspects of architecture. Enables the reader to make proper choices when faced with a difficult design decision. GlobalSourcingNOW GlobalSourcingNOW is a FREE daily and weekly newsletter providing the latest updates on the global offshoring and outsourcing industry. GlobalSourcingNOW is hosted by Evalueserve, a leading provider of expert knowledge services. Industries such as Information Technology, Human Resource Management, Finance & Insurance, Knowledge Management, Customer Relationship Management, Biotechnology, Engineering, and Research & Development are extensively researched and covered by GlobalSourcingNOW. GlobalSourcingNOW newsletters reach over 22,000 subscribers across 40 countries. For further details on this, please refer to this link:http://www.globalsourcingnow.com Finding Spiritual Courage: Risking the Unfamiliar to Have the Future We Want Finding Spiritual Courage: Risking the Unfamiliar to Have the Future We Wantby John Renesch In life we have seen dramatic rescues and individual acts of heroism, people risking physical harm or even their lives in the face of terrible threats. Courage is required when there is fear of harmful consequences that are likely to result from one’s action, be it charging an enemy machine gun in wartime or cliff climbing without safety lines in civilian life. Risking one’s personal safety for the welfare of the platoon or jumping into ice cold water to save a drowning flight attendant are definitely courageous acts with real physical danger facing the hero. Trust is a huge component in taking courageous action. If one is risking real danger, one trusts they will be successful despite the fear they are feeling. In some cases, the action comes instinctively, seemingly without forethought, but fear is there as soon as they think about the situation, even if it is after the event! The world will always require people to put themselves at physical risk for the sake of their fellow citizens, like firefighters and police officers. Another kind of courage is being called for in these times of exponential rates of change and the enormous impact which technology adds to the changes we experience. This kind of courage is not necessarily physical, although it could have longer-term physical implications. The kind of courage we are presently lacking is to risk embarrassment, lost social status or peer approval. Thoreau said it long ago: “Dissent without action is consent.” Like the teenager who hesitates to go against the group even though he or she knows they are doing something wrong or members of a mob who get caught up in mass hysteria and turn their backs on normal civilized constraints, too many of us are simply “going along” with the crowd. Not enough of us are questioning the wisdom of our silent condoning, the legitimacy we are lending to the way things are going. Breaking the silence, ending the “going along,” requires spiritual courage, the courage to stand tall for your conscience, your sense of right and wrong, the wisdom you may possess that others appear to be lacking. This kind of courage allows one to risk the unfamiliar, the unknown and the untried when there’s an implied promise of a better future for others once the stand is taken. Systems remain dysfunctional because the people in them refuse to challenge the status quo, refuse to take the risk, preferring the familiar even if it is uncomfortable or painful. The dysfunction is maintained because people prefer the known and familiar to the unknown or unfamiliar, even when it holds promise for a better alternative! This is crazy! It shows how attached we can become to the familiar, the known, the reality in which we’ve learned to survive. You’ve heard it said that people hate to change. This is a very commonly-held belief. Yet we persist in trying to change others – whether it is our spouses, a relative, partners or co-workers. Eventually, wiser more mature people learn the only person they can change is themselves. Wiser souls focus inward. They work to change their own beliefs, to think and act differently, thereby changing the systems in which they work and live. When they change, their systems change. This commitment to change oneself, to think and act differently, requires a rare brand of mature courage that is sorely needed today. Technology has accelerated both the speed at which change is occurring as well as the degree of impact these changes have on the world. We no longer live in a cause-effect world where we can remain isolated in our actions and misdeeds, only affecting a few people around us. We have made our world into a massive array of complex and interacting systems, adding our own complexity to what Mother Nature had already given us. There are no simple solutions to society’s challenges any more. Those days are past. Like Einstein told us almost a century ago, our consciousness must evolve to match the complexity of our world. The way we think has to grow exponentially to keep pace with what we think about. Pairing outmoded thinking with exponentially increasing technology eventually will lead us to disaster. Like the toaster repairmen trying to repair satellites in outer space, or children driving 300 mph racing cars or cooks overseeing nuclear reactors, we’re over our heads and lagging far behind in our abilities to resolve our challenges. Perhaps it is time to take a stand for our evolving humanity, like the Roman slave Spartacus, and declare that we are more than machines, more than “naked apes” and more than digitized humanoids. Let us openly embrace our human spirit and allow ourselves to transcend the conditions we have created rather than remain subject to them, to claim mastery over the systems we’ve created rather than remaining slaves to them. Like Spartacus, let us emancipate ourselves and proclaim our full humanity. Einstein also told us that we are still an infantile society. We human beings are hardly fully-evolved. Let us call for more spiritual courage, an increased willingness to break out of our skin of familiarity or the petty limitations of what we expect from our consciousness and allow ourselves to dream bigger about how we think, what we do and what we expect for our future. Let us break out of the mold of guesswork or prediction about how things may be in the future and, instead, take a wiser more mature stand for what we want. Then, let us do everything in our power to bring about that future. John Renesch is a veteran businessman-turned-futurist and an international keynote speaker. He has created over a dozen books, including his most recent, Getting to the Better Future: A Matter of Conscious Choosing. He publishes a free monthly Internet periodical available from his website, www.Renesch.com. John will be speak at the Summit for the Future 2006 in the “Values and Spirituality” session. Club of Amsterdam Agenda NEW: Our Season Events are Wednesdays 16:30! 16:00-16:30 Registration16:30-17:45 Part I: Presentations17:45-18:15 Break: Drinks and evtl. live music18:15-19:15 Part II: Discussion Club of Amsterdam Season Events 2005/2006 .Nov 30 the future of Software ArchitectureWhere: Syntens, De Ruyterkade 5, 1013 AA Amsterdam [Building of the Chamber of Commerce] .Jan 25 the future of Futurist Tools .Mar 1 the future of Electronic Identity .Mar 29 the future of Governance .Apr 26 the future of Drugs & Pharma .May 31 the future of Reputation Management .Jun 28 the future of Journalism / Ethics in Journalism Seminar ‘New Dimensions’ The 12th of December Media Plaza will organize the seminar ‘New dimensions’, the future of software engineering. During this free seminar several breakthrough projects will be presented that will have huge impact on the software engineering scene over the next few years. Open standards and open source software will impact business models, at the seminar we will present a project called Unlock Closed Software. Also agents based decision making processes will be presented, and the vision of Professor van Vliet on the future of software engineering. New Dimensions of software engineering, where will we go the next few years? Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Are you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform – and it’s for free …