Content Innovation & Sports Next Event N Building Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Recommended book Uranium price, supplies and the megatons to megawatts agreement The world needs a new taxation paradigm Futurist Portrait: Marina Gorbis Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Issues addressed during our next event about the future of Sports:In many regards The Netherlands can be considered a country of sport, not only on account of its large sporting population but also because of a fair number of companies in the sports and leisure industry. Still, the potential for innovation in this industry are not always fully realised as athletes, businessmen and scientists are not maximizing their cooperating during the development stage of innovation in sport.Stressing the importance of sustainability during the design and development of a sports venue contributes no only to our environment but ensures that the venue is positive contribution so the surrounding community.100 years after they were held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands have indicated a desire to host the Summer Olympic games in 2028. Both Amsterdam and Rotterdam are now looking at the feasibility of a bid. For Amsterdam, the challenge will be tremendous. Join our next event – share your thoughts – March 25 the future of Sports Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Innovation & Sports A visionary football by AGENT ‘CTRUS’ functional principle is based on the mechanical properties of its materials. it is composed by an inner structure (skelle-core) and an outer net-embedded shell, made out of reinforced elastomers. these pieces have different durometer according to its structural location. the flexibility provided by its materials, emulates the bounce of an inflated pneumatic soccer ball, but offers the advantage of not loosing air. CTRUS doesn’t need air in order to perform.’ CTRUS provides added functionality controlled by the electronic components in its nucleus which communicate wirelessly with control stations at the stadium: inner light, color changes at critical game situations (goal, offside and out of bounds). recording of kick force and travel speed. location of the ball relative to the court (interactive detection system via GPS / RFID). P.O.V. camera footage (software stabilized image). Innovative new skateboard controller . Put on your helmet and prepare to be introduced to Tony Hawk: Ride Personalised sports videosAutonomous Production of Images based on Distributed and Intelligent Sensing (APIDIS). The software allows cameras to track both the ball and the players simultaneously, estimating which camera captures a more detailed picture. One interesting thing about this invention is that it can be adjusted according to viewers’ demands. For instance, the APIDIS can track certain players. Next Event the future of SportsThursday, March 25, 2010Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15 Location: Hogeschool van Amsterdam – School of Sports and Nutrition, Auditorium, Dr. Meurerlaan 8, 1067 SM Amsterdam The speakers areGeorge de Jong, Director, InnosportNLTechnology & Innovation Jan Tilmans, Director, Sportstil AgencySport Facilities & Sustainability Marco Kooiman, Program Advisor, Olympic Ambitions, Topstad AmsterdamAmsterdam’s Olympic bid in 2028 moderated by John Mahnen, Business Development Manager, Heg Consult N Building The digital production company qosmo teamed up terada design architects to create N Building. N Building is a commercial structure located near Tachikawa station amidst a shopping district. Being a commercial building signs or billboards are typically attached to its facade which we feel undermines the structures’ identity. As a solution they use a QR Code as the facade itself. QR Code is a matrix code (or two-dimensional bar code). QR Codes are common in Japan. By reading the QR Code with your mobile device you will be taken to a site which includes up to date shop information. In this manner a cityscape is unhindered by ubiquitous signage and is also an improvement to the quality and accuracy of the information itself. The building is detected in real time by its shape (for an example, see video). Characters are then superimposed over the live video. Twitter feed comments are located via GPS tagging. Store information, reservations and other infrastructure is part of the iPhone application. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com March 6: The world needs a new taxation paradigmMarch 3: Transformative ThinkingJanuary 8: Mobile Trends 2020October 6: … Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the ReceiverSeptember 21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community DevelopmentAugust 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media past News about the Future Collective predictionsGalaxyadvisor’s Condor dynamic social network analysis tool puts the full power of collective prediction at your fingertips. Condor permits you to run highly customized queries, zooming in on precisely the data sources at the time intervals that make most sense and are most valuable for you. Condor permits to zoom in on e-Mail archives, online mailing lists, and various Internet sources and to only analyze the Web sites, blogs, and online forums that matter for you. As output, Condor generates movies of social networks, many different social network metrics (betweenness, degree, density, contribution index, etc.) and also permits to export data to Excel and other statistics packages such as Matlab, SPSS, or SAS. The economic impact of noise pollution on human healthIncreased traffic noise and the wider spread of a 24 hour society have contributed to rising complaints about disturbance and annoyance caused by noise. In addition, there is growing evidence of a link between noise pollution and ill health. However, in the UK, as an example, there is no agreed method for assessing and valuing the impact of noise on human health. There is therefore a need for statistically reliable information which robustly links noise exposure to a specific health problem to enable policy makers to assess the economic impact of higher environmental noise levels on health when developing noise management plans. This study investigated the current state of evidence for potential health effects caused by exposure to noise. The health impacts considered were annoyance, mental health effects, cardiovascular (heart and blood vessels) effects, sleep disturbances, delayed language and reading skills in children and hearing impairment. With the exception of mental health, the study found that there was sufficient evidence to link noise exposure with adverse health effects. Recommended Book Strategic Sports Event Management, Second Edition: Olympic Edition (Hospitality, Leisure and Tourism)By Guy Masterman The hosting of sports events – whether large international events, or smaller niche interest events – has huge and long-lasting impacts on the local environment, economy and industry.Strategic Sports Event Management: Olympic edition provides students and event managers with an insight into the strategic management of sports events of all scales and nature. The framework offers a planning process that can be used to understand the importance of a strategic approach, and shows how to implement strategies that can achieve successful sports events over the short and long-term.The text uses new international case studies throughout to offer real-world insight in both larger and smaller events. Plus, in this new Olympic edition, we see the introduction of a Beijing Olympiad case study in each chapter. Through this topical and timely addition to the text, we can understand the lessons to be learned by events mangers of events of all sizes. Written by an experienced author and using first-hand research the text looks at:The organisations involved such as the IOC, FIFA and IAAF, and their interactions with charities, the media and promoters.The short-term and long-term benefits of the planning processEvaluating the event, its impacts and legaciesOperational strategies including finance, ticketing, transport, venues, IT, communications, equipment and personnelThe bidding process and what is required for a successful bid Uranium price, supplies and the megatons to megawatts agreement by Michael Akerib, Rusconsult, Adjunct Professor at the University of Geneva Nuclear energy has increasingly been proposed as the solution to the expected mounting energy shortfall due to population and economic growth, particularly in Asia. Nuclear energy has also been vaunted as a low carbon emitter compared to fossil fuels although construction of a power plant is a non-negligible carbon emitter as well as a major capital investment although Russia has developed smaller, less expensive, nuclear power plants. Further, nuclear fuel can be recycled, although ultimately there is a problem with the disposal of radioactive waste. While today nuclear energy represents approximately 17% of the energy produced worldwide, it is expected to increase, due to the reasons outline above. In France, three quarters of the energy produced is derived from nuclear energy. While 53 nuclear power plants are presently under construction, the US Energy Department forecasts that 1 000 plants will be in operation worldwide by 2050. Various incentive schemes have been set up, including loan guarantees from the government for US utilities and the introduction of cap-and-trade systems that would increase the cost of energy production from hydrocarbons. While uranium is by no means a rare element, it is often insufficiently concentrated to warrant mining. Thus, uranium production remains concentrated, with eight countries accounting for 93% of the production. In descending order of importance, these are Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia, Russia, Niger, Namibia, Uzbekistan and the USA. Eight mining companies account for 80% of the extraction. The five main ones are Cameco, Rio Tinto, Areva, KazAtomProm and ARMZ-TVEL. Reserves are not known with great precision since the lack of interest in nuclear power as a source of energy during a couple of decades thwarted any effort to look for new deposits. The element being abundant, and market prices rather low, only large economic deposits have been surveyed. Low, and highly volatile, uranium prices, red tape or even total mining ban as was the case in Australia, and high operational costs due to safety requirements, have discouraged investments in new mines. Commercially mining a deposit takes 8 to 10 years from the end of the geological survey and the raising of the required capital. Prices have seesawed from a low of US$ 10 to reach $ 95 in March 2007 as nuclear plant operators started a storage cycle in an industry used to ‘buy-and-hold’ strategies particularly in periods of low interest rates. Spot prices even reach $ 138 in June 2007 as speculators become net buyers. However, as credit tightens, they liquidate positions and prices plunge to US$ 40 in April 2009. Prices have started climbing again since May 2009. While the nuclear lobby has minimized the importance of these price fluctuations, insisting that the price of uranium only represents 8% of the operational costs of a nuclear power plant, they miss the point that there is a major imbalance in the demand – supply relationship of the fissile material and that even in the bullish phase, world production hardly increased. With demand outpacing supply, and the gap forecast to increase as annual demand is expected to escalate from slightly over 13 000 to over 27 000 tons. With mining output unable to ramp up in such a short period, additional quantities have had a diverse origin, and more particularly, recycling of spent fuel, enrichment of spent tails and decommissioning of nuclear weapons. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) is extracted from the warheads. It contains 20 to 90% uranium-235 (U-235). It is blended with uranium containing low level of U-235 thus produced low-enriched uranium (LEU) containing less than 5% U-235. It is then blended with depleted uranium, partially enriched uranium or natural uranium. The blending-down of 500 tons of Russian HEU leads to 15 000 tons of LEU, representing two years of demand. The situation is likely to worsen if the various nuclear plant projects are commissioned and particularly if the availability of HEU is put into question as the Megaton to Megawatts (MtM) agreement, signed in 1993, expires in 2013. Russia has indicated it is reluctant to renew the agreement, at least under its present terms, since it wishes to keep some of the HEU for its own use and sell the exported material directly to utilities. Negotiations, which are directly linked to the amount of missiles to be decommissioned in the new SALT treaty presently being discussed, revolve around allowing Russia to provide directly up to 20% of the requirements from US utilities – approximately 50% of quantities shipped – of enriched uranium from 2014 to 2020 with a free access at the end of that period. Any sales from Russia for initial cores in the period 2014 to 2020 would be exempted from the quota. Also exempted from the quota would be quantities processed in the US for re-export. The world stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium (a substitute product to uranium) is estimated to be around 260 tons which, when diluted, would be the equivalent of one year of primary uranium production. Plutonium is blended with uranium oxide to form so-called Mixed Oxide Fuel (MOX). MOX fuels 50% of the nuclear power plant capacity in the US, thus representing 10% of electricity production. The MtM agreement originated in 1987 when the USA and the USSR agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenal by 80%, but it really only came into effect in 1993. Under this agreement, 500 tons of HEU are to be diluted by Tenex and delivered to USEC, a US corporation. USEC, in turn, dilutes it to LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) for resale to nuclear power plants. Over the life of the contract, 15 000 tons of LEU will have been delivered, the equivalent of 152 000 tons of natural uranium, slightly over two years of demand. Russia, however, has also become a major user of this fuel and a large number of nuclear power plant projects are under study and therefore the country’s needs are set to increase considerably. The START negotiations presently underway in Geneva will determine if further, and how many, missiles are to be dismantled, and therefore how much plutonium is likely to find its way in the nuclear fuel cycle. While the negotiations have been advancing at a snail’s pace, a compromise is expected. Russia, in association with Kazakhstan, created in 2007 the International Uranium Enrichment Center (IUEC) located at the Angarsk Electrolytic Chemical Combine. It is also expected to become the basis of the World Bank for Uranium, which counts Mr Warren Buffet as an investor, and which would be run as a for-profit venture. The Bank would enrich uranium and supply it to those customers meeting specified requirements. It has recently proposed to enrich the Iranian low enriched material to upgrade it to civilian use as fuel. The project fits well with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plan to globalize the nuclear fuel cycle as Russia has indicated that the capital of the IUEC would be open to all interested parties but that it would remain the majority shareholder with 51% of the shares. The other shareholders at present are Kazakhstan and Armenia with 10% of the shares each, with the Ukraine having signed a letter of intent to subscribe to 10% of the shares. In spite of its promotional efforts, it has been unable to interest other countries. Other countries have expressed interest in creating IUEC-type organizations on their territory. In 2006, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a US institution, pledged US$ 50 million for the creation of a low-enriched uranium bank to be owned and managed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The US Congress, as well as other countries, have pledged a total of US$ 100 million to that purpose. However, major decisions such as location, pricing and type of fuel stored, have not yet been taken. Without the slightest doubt, Russia and Kazakhstan are positioning themselves to play a major role in determining the price of uranium in the years to come. The world needs a new taxation paradigm by Leif Thomas Olsen, Associate Professor, International Relations, Rushmore University As taxation is both an administrative and a political issue of prime importance to all societies and their power-structures, are changes in modes of taxation both rare and slow. Income taxes, profit taxes and VAT dominate, and are so heavily entrenched in our societies so we hardly even notice how outdated this combination has become. All societies are burdened by tax problems. This problem is two-fold: 1. It is a major administrative problem for the State (etc) to collect all the taxes needed, and even harder to show that funds are used in a justifiable manner. 2. Taxes indirectly drive the socio-economic behaviour of all tax subjects – turning them into ‘social’ slaves of whatever economic model that prevails. As tax fatigue spreads throughout the world, and tax evasion has become an art (tax planning), and therefore hardly raises eyebrows anymore, are tax bureaucrats ever busy inventing new taxes – along traditional lines – in order to finance the constantly increasing administration of their respective societies. That the State’s cost side increases is not strange. Technical infrastructure, administrative systems, collection activities and fraud detection also costs money, at the same time as all the traditional undertakings of the State gets more expensive in the light of higher salaries and (consequently) higher tax burdens for people working the systems. In addition to all this will challenges of more recent date – environmental and humanitarian problems caused by globalisation in particular – also require colossal investments. The problem is that the human incentive system works against more taxation, at the same time as corporate as well as individual greed has proved – beyond doubt – that communal needs must be communally financed. To anyone willing to examine the evidence it is clear that ‘the market’ cannot solve the problem of (e.g.) low cost education, low cost housing and low cost medical care. Nor can ‘the market’ ensure that resources are fairly distributed within reasonable time-frames (e.g. food and medicine before those starving dies, security before those threatened must flee, peace of mind before those exposed to stress drops out of the system, etc. Many more examples could be listed, but I trust the point is already made. A serious divide is also building between tax payers and authorities in terms of trust. This is critical to a post-modern world, since the tax payers are supposed to be the Masters of any system based on free and fair elections of ‘representatives’ – who in turn appoint the bureaucrats assigned to implement their political decisions. In my upcoming book Good Governance in the New Millennium I discuss the general problem facing the West’s current democratic model, where governments’ legitimacy based on election results must be questioned. Too many inaccuracies are displayed when election campaigns are compared to implemented policies, too few people care to vote, and too many governments rule simply because they are the largest party, not because they have a majority vote to support them. The nowadays endemic influence of corporate capital in many countries’ politics is also a reason for this lack of legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary citizens. Evidence of this lack of trust, so often displayed in discussions between ordinary citizens but withheld when the system’s representatives are present (as the general public often feel they lack hard evidence or can be accused of speaking their private concern only), is now piling up on the Internet – the only place where people from across vast geographical distances can pool their views. Although few people seem to disagree to the concept of taxes as such, do most feel some kind of despair over the way their society’s tax burden is distributed and the collected funds allocated. A new taxation paradigm must take … click here to read full article Futurist Portrait: Marina Gorbis Marina Gorbis, Futurist, Executive Director, Institute for the Future A native of Odessa, Ukraine, Marina is particularly suited to see things from a global perspective. She has directed international programs and led international development projects for SRI (formerly Stanford Research Institute) in China, Japan, Vietnam, India, and Eastern Europe. Marina has also authored publications on international business and economics, with an emphasis on regional innovation and competitiveness. In addition to serving as IFTF’s Executive Director, Marina led the Technology Horizons Program for several years, focusing on the innovation at the intersection of new technologies and social organization. She has initiated a Global Ethnographic Network (GEN), a multi-year ethnographic research program which tries to develop an understanding of daily lives of people in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Silicon Valley, in an attempt to integrate their voices into IFTF’s forecasts. She has also led several major private client engagements at IFTF, the most recent being a global Science & Technology Forecast for the UK Government’s Department of Science & Technology. She holds an M.P.P. from the University of California, Berkeley, a certificate in international business from the University of London, and a B.A. in industrial psychology, also from the University of California, Berkeley. California, Berkeley. Agenda Our Season Program 2009 / 2010: March 25, 201018:30-21:15 the future of SportsLocation: Hogeschool van Amsterdam – School of Sports and Nutrition, Auditorium, Dr. Meurerlaan 8, 1067 SM Amsterdam April 29, 201018:30-21:15 the future of MusicLocation: Hogeschool van Amsterdam, Auditorium, Singelgrachtgebouw, Rhijnspoorplein 1, 1091 GC Amsterdam [corner Wibautstraat and Mauritskade] June 3, 201018:30-21:15 the future of CERNLocation: WTC – World Trade Center, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam
Content Digital Music Report 2010 Next Event Regenerative Medicine Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Recommended book Graffiti in South Africa Futurist Portrait: Gerd Leonhard Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal.Oliver Sacks, physician, author and professor of neurology and psychiatry: “Music can move us to the heights or depths of emotion. It can persuade us to buy something, or remind us of our first date. It can lift us out of depression when nothing else can. It can get us dancing to its beat. But the power of music goes much, much further. Indeed, music occupies more areas of our brain than language does – humans are a musical species.”At our upcoming event on April 29 about the future of Music we are having a dialogue about Music & the Brain, Music & Creative Projects – online and wireless and Music in Games Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Digital Music Report 2010 by IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry) “New licensing deals help push digital music sales to 27% of global revenues – but piracy is damaging investment in artists” Global digital music trade revenues reach US$4.2 billion, up 12% in 2009 400 services licensed worldwide by music companies with ISPs, mobile and other partners New figures show local music collapsing in major markets as piracy bites into releases, sales and investment in France, Spain and Brazil IFPI Digital Music Report highlights urgent need for legislation to curb digital piracy on ISP networks More than a quarter of all recorded music industry revenues worldwide are now coming from digital channels, as music companies license music in partnership with ISPs and mobile operators, subscription services, streaming sites and hundreds of download stores. However, despite the continuing growth of the digital music business – with trade revenues up 12% to an estimated US$4.2 billion in 2009 – illegal file-sharing and other forms of online piracy are eroding investment and sales of local music in major markets. In particular, three countries known for the historic vibrancy and influence of their music and musicians – Spain, France, Brazil – are suffering acutely, with local artist album sales or the number of releases plummeting. Governments are gradually moving towards legislation requiring ISPs to curb digital piracy. But progress needs to be much quicker. In 2009, France, South Korea and Taiwan adopted new laws to address the crisis. Other governments, including the UK and New Zealand, have proposed new laws for adoption in 2010. These are key highlights of the IFPI Digital Music Report, published today. The Report provides an overview of the music industry’s changing business models, outlines the impact of digital piracy internationally, and reviews the efforts of governments to address it. New models are increasing consumer choice The Report outlines how music companies are diversifying their revenue streams, offering new ways for consumers to buy and access music. These include: subscription services; music services bundled with devices and broadband subscriptions; streaming services with applications for mobile devices; advertising-supported services that offer premium services; and online music video services. In the last year, music companies have partnered with advertising-supported services such as Spotify, Deezer, MySpace Music and We7; ISPs such as TDC in Denmark, Terra in Brazil and Sky in the UK; mobile operators such as Vodafone; handset makers such as Nokia and Sony Ericsson; and online video channels such as Hulu and VEVO. Sales of music downloads, the dominant revenue stream in digital music, are seeing steady growth. Single track download sales increased by an estimated 10%, while digital albums rose an estimated 20% in 2009. Recent innovations in this sector include the introduction of variable pricing, which has increased the conversion of track purchases to album sales, as well as the launch of the iTunes LP and the rollout of DRM-free downloads internationally. New figures show piracy is harming investment in local talent Despite this progress, piracy is the major barrier to growth of the legitimate digital music sector and is causing severe damage to local music industries around the world. Providing new evidence of this, three of the world’s biggest music markets, all heavily dependent on local repertoire – France, Spain and Brazil – have seen a sharp slump in the fortunes of their local music industries: In Spain, which has one of the highest rates of illegal file-sharing in Europe, sales by local artists in the top 50 have fallen by an estimated 65% between 2004 and 2009; France, where a quarter of the internet population downloads illegally, has seen local artist album releases fall by 60% between 2003 and 2009; In Brazil, full priced major label local album releases from the five largest music companies in 2008 were down 80% from their 2005 level. The report shows that, while the music industry has increased its digital revenues by 940% since 2004, piracy has been the major factor behind the overall global market decline of around 30% in the same period. Overall, global music sales in the first half of 2009 were down by 12% (physical and digital sales) and full year figures are likely to see a similar trend. Third party studies overwhelmingly conclude that the net impact of illegal file-sharing is to depress sales of music. Two surveys confirmed this in 2009 – by Jupiter Research, covering five European countries, and Harris Interactive, covering the UK. According to Jupiter, around one in five internet users in Europe (21%) shares unauthorised music. “Climate change” for creative industries The Report also shows how digital piracy is causing “climate change” across the creative industries. In 2009 the issue rose to the top of the agenda for film and TV producers as well as book publishers. TV programme piracy is estimated to be growing faster than in music, according to research firm Big Champagne. Meanwhile, the film industry estimates illegal film streams and downloads account for 40% of its piracy problem by volume (MPAA). The Report calls for the urgent adoption of laws to curb P2P and other forms of online piracy – including the “graduated response” by which ISPs would cooperate with right holders in deterring illegal file-sharing on their networks. Introducing the Report, IFPI chairman and CEO John Kennedy, said: “Music fans today can acquire tracks and albums in ways not conceivable a few years ago – from download stores, streaming sites, subscription services, free-to-user sites, bundled with their broadband or a mobile phone handset. “It would be great to report that these innovations have been rewarded by market growth, more investment in artists, more jobs. Sadly that is not the case. Digital piracy remains a huge barrier to market growth and is causing a steady erosion of investment in local music. The collapse in sales and investment in France, Spain and Brazil, countries with traditionally vibrant music cultures, testify to this and are a warning to the rest of the world. “In 2009 the mood has crucially changed. It is now accepted that this is about the future of a broad base of creative industries that have huge economic importance and employ vast numbers of people. Governments, led by France, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK and New Zealand led the way in 2009 by adopting or proposing legislation to tackle piracy. It is vital these efforts are seen through to their conclusion and followed by other governments in 2010.” IFPI (International Federation of the Phonographic Industry) represents the recording industry worldwide with some 1400 members in 66 countries and affiliated industry associations in 45 countries. Next Event the future of MusicThursday, April 29, 2010Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15 Location: Hogeschool van Amsterdam, Auditorium, Singelgrachtgebouw, Rhijnspoorplein 1, 1091 GC Amsterdam The speakers areTom Pearce, internationally renowned producer, Owner, Practical Music Music in GamesMaking our own future – Gaming as a promotion and distribution system Theo Ploeg, lecturer at HvA, journalist, sociologistMusic & Creative Projects – online and wirelessCreativity, music & new media Aaltje Van Zweden-van Buuren, Founder, The Papageno Foundation & Ria Veldhuizen, Music Therapist, The Papageno FoundationMusic & the BrainMoments of Musical Meeting, playing with time and expectation. moderated by GUsta Lebbink, Lebbink Consult Regenerative Medicine Regenerative Medicine is the process of creating living, functional tissues to repair or replace tissue or organ function lost due to age, disease, damage, or congenital defects. This field holds the promise of regenerating damaged tissues and organs in the body by stimulating previously irreparable organs to heal themselves. Regenerative medicine also empowers scientists to grow tissues and organs in the laboratory and safely implant them when the body cannot heal itself. Importantly, regenerative medicine has the potential to solve the problem of the shortage of organs available for donation compared to the number of patients that require life-saving organ transplantation, as well as solve the problem of organ transplant rejection, since the organ’s cells will match that of the patient. Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative MedicineWhat may seem like science fiction is happening right here at the Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine. From bladder and trachea, to cartilage and heart – we’ve successfully grown more than 20 types of cells in the laboratory. We are an international leader in translating scientific discovery into clinical therapies. Our scientists were the first in the world to successfully implant a laboratory-grown organ into humans and have achieved other world firsts. In 2006, we reported long-term success implanting bladders that were engineering in the laboratory into young patients with spina bifida Today, as the bladder technology is being evaluated in patients with spinal cord injuries and in women with severe cases of overactive bladder, we’re working to grow more than 22 other tissues and organs. More than 100 projects are currently underway. National Taiwan University Hospital, Department of PediatricsBeyond liver transplants: Acutely damaged livers may be repaired via transplanted hepatocytes A research team from the National Taiwan University Hospital has evaluated the efficiency of transplanted hepatocyte (liver) cells in animal models severely damaged by two kinds of chemical toxicity to see whether and how transplanted hepatocytes were able to efficiently repopulate the toxin-induced, severely damaged livers. The study was carried out in the on-going effort to evaluate hepatocyte transplantation as an alternative to liver transplantation, not only because of the current shortage of liver donors for transplantation, but also because successful cell transplantation is simpler, less invasive and less expensive than organ (i.e., liver) transplantation. The researchers found that animal model of livers with damage induced from combined retrosine-plus-D-galactosamine (as opposed to animals infused with single toxins) were subject to “massive repopulation of the liver by transplanted hepatocyte cells and hepatocyte growth factor genes.” “This is an interesting model where massive liver cell death is imposed over a background where the native liver fails to regenerate,” said section editor Dr. Stephen Strom, professor in the Division of Cellular and Molecular Pathology at the University of Pittsburgh. “These are important pre-clinical studies because of the similarities of this model to Acute Liver Failure (ALF) in human patients. The enhanced proliferation of donor cells following transplantation helps to explain why the transplantation of even relatively small numbers of hepatocytes can reverse liver failure.” CARMAT SASIn France, there is a new regenerative medicine medical device, the CARMAT heart. The company has been spun out of a collaboration between the renowned surgeon Professor Carpentier and EADS on implementation of biomaterials and cutting-edge technologies in the construction of an artificial heart. CARMAT intends to market a fully implantable artificial heart that will be able to provide renewed hope and quality of life to the hundreds of thousands of patients suffering in the aftermath of a massive heart attack or with late-stage heart failure and for whom standard drug therapy, ventricular assistance and/or a heart transplant have failed or are not possible. The new design uses cutting-edge biopolymer materials that promise to reduce the formation of dangerous blood clots – a persistent problem with early artificial hearts – and may even spare patients from needing to use nettlesome anticoagulant drugs. And feedback sensors and software can adjust the heart’s speed and pressure depending on the exertion level of the wearer, permitting a vastly greater range of physical activity. The preliminary animal trials and lab tests performed with the CARMAT artificial heart have generated interest from the medical community in France and worldwide, as well as from the health authorities. At present, CARMAT’s prototype artificial heart has been patented and is undergoing preclinical testing. It meets the human body’s biocompatibility criteria. It is functionally similar to the human heart in both anatomic and functional terms – notably via automatic regulation of heart rate and blood flow according to the patient’s physiological needs. Following approval by the French Agency for Healthcare Product Safety, CARMAT’s prototype will be evaluated first in life-threatened patients with no other available treatment options and then (depending on the results of the initial clinical trials) in patients with a better prognosis. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com March 6: The world needs a new taxation paradigmMarch 3: Transformative ThinkingJanuary 8: Mobile Trends 2020October 6: … Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the ReceiverSeptember 21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community DevelopmentAugust 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media past News about the Future Strata Tower in London generates 8% of its energy needs Strata SE1 is the first development in the world where wind turbines have been integrated within the fabric of the building. The three five bladed nine metre diameter wind turbines are anticipated to produce 50MWh of electricity per year for the landlords supply, approximately 8% of Strata SE1’s estimated total energy consumption. Strata SE1’s sustainable design will reduce carbon emissions for the development and enable Strata SE1’s residents to benefit from lower domestic operating costs, lower service charges, healthier internal environmental conditions and general improvement in their wellbeing. Asia Pacific economic outlook by Deloitte China – In the short-term, China’s outlook is quite good. The lagged effects of aggressive policy in 2009 will render strong growth in 2010. However, China’s success in offsetting the negative impact of the global economic crisis now sets the stage for possible troubles down the road, including risk of inflation, asset price bubbles, excess industrial capacity, and troublesome relations with trading partners. Japan – Following a deep recession in 2009, Japan is now experiencing very slow economic growth combined with deflation. The government’s reaction to the crisis, a combination of monetary and fiscal stimulus, was successful in restoring growth, yet progress remains quite slow compared to other developed economies. Australia – While the overall outlook for Australia is for moderate growth, there are some risks to the forecast, such as the country’s high dependency on global commodity markets and its increasing dependency on China’s economic health. India – India is recovering nicely from a very modest slowdown. This reflects strengthening demand for Indian’s exports as the global economy recovers. In addition, domestic demand is strengthening as business investment accelerates in line with a high level of confidence. Consumer spending is accelerating as well. The result is that the economy is recovering faster than expected. Recommended Book Musicophilia: Tales of Music and the Brainby Oliver Sacks Legendary R&B icon Ray Charles claimed that he was “born with music inside me,” and neurologist Oliver Sacks believes Ray may have been right. Musicophilia: Tales of Music and the Brain examines the extreme effects of music on the human brain and how lives can be utterly transformed by the simplest of harmonies. With clinical studies covering the tragic (individuals afflicted by an inability to connect with any melody) and triumphant (Alzheimer’s patients who find order and comfort through music), Sacks provides an erudite look at the notion that humans are truly a “musical species.” — Dave Callanan Graffiti in South Africa Drive around Cape Town and you’re bound to spot Faith47’s exceptionally visual and engaging graffiti on a wall somewhere. Faith47: “I’m from South Africa. [The country] has raised me and given me hidings and heartaches. I’m rooted here but I’m no believer in patriotism. Lines drawn on a map with a pencil are not in sync with nature. Therefore I belong to this world at large. I breathe, in the knowledge that death is certain [and] I am trying to fully catch each breath.” “Shot over three days in Cape Town while Faith47 put up her work. Quite a heavy place so the video tried to convey what was felt as well as the spirit of the work itself.” Futurist Portrait: Gerd Leonhard Gerd Leonhard, Media FuturistAuthor & Blogger, Keynote Speaker & StrategistThe Wall Street Journal calls Gerd ‘one of the leading Media Futurists in the World’. He is the co-author of the influential book ‘The Future of Music’ (2005, Berklee Press), as well as the author of ‘Music2.0’ (2008) and the blog-book ‘The End of Control’. Gerd’s background is in music; in 1985 he won the Quincy Jones Award and subsequently graduated from Boston’s Berklee College of Music (1987). Since 2002, following a decade as digital media entrepreneur and start-up CEO, Gerd travels around the globe and speaks at conferences, events and think-tanks on the Future of Media, Content, Technology, Business, Marketing & Advertising, Branding, Telecom, Communications and Culture. Gerd is considered a leading expert on topics such as social media, mobile content and mcommerce, innovation and entrepreneurship, UGC and peer production, copyright, licensing and IPR issues, next-generation advertising, marketing and branding, digital content strategies and the development of next-generation business models in the content, communications & technology industries. Gerd’s keynotes, speeches, presentations and think-tank appearances are renowned for his hard-hitting and provocative yet inspiring and motivational style. With over 300 engagements in 29 countries during the past 7 years, Gerd has addressed over 25.000 executives and professionals, and is considered a key influencer. His diverse client list includes Nokia, Google, Sony-BMG, Telkom Indonesia, Siemens, Kuoni, RTL, ITV, the BBC, France Telecom / Orange, Deutsche Telekom, The Financial Times, TribalDDB, DDB, Omnicom, the European Commission, Nokia Siemens Networks and many others. Gerd is a member of the Club of Amsterdam Expert group.. Agenda Our Season Program 2009 / 2010: April 29, 201018:30-21:15 the future of MusicLocation: Hogeschool van Amsterdam, Auditorium, Singelgrachtgebouw, Rhijnspoorplein 1, 1091 GC Amsterdam [corner Wibautstraat and Mauritskade] June 3, 201018:30-21:15 the future of CERNLocation: WTC – World Trade Center, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam
Content What is the future of natural gas in Europe? Next Event Restaurant of the Future Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Recommended book The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet IDEO – a global design and innovation firm Futurist Portrait: John R Grizz Deal Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. CERN is the European Organization for Nuclear Research near Geneva, Switzerland, and famous for its particle accelerators, such as the Large Hadron Collider.CERN is the real global scientific endeavour of all times. It has so many aspects and dimensions that it is hard to grasp its ubiquitous impact on human lives. The Einstein heritage also contains the deep drive to push up the boundaries of our knowledge. As a young kid Einstein dreamed of surfing on a light wave. This dream is – now transformed – still the drive of a lot of scientists from the CERN community. But also the relation between our daily environment and the fundamental level of particles is a seducing one, and fascinating.Join us at the event about the future of CERN – June 3 Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief What is the future of natural gas in Europe? by Michael Akerib, Rusconsult Gas consumption has seen a major increase in its use for the production of electricity in both Europe and the US as it is a less polluting fuel than coal while having a higher efficiency. The International Energy Agency forecasts an annual increase in demand of 1.5% in the next ten to twenty years. This increased use may, however, well put consuming countries, and the European Union in particular, into a higher dependency ratio – of up to 80% – with regards to its suppliers, since gas extraction is geographically concentrated in a limited number of countries some of which have dwindling resources or require considerable investments to maintain their present production levels, or both. Russia’s estimate is that investments of the order of 300 billion dollars will be required over the next 20 years to meet demand. In the case of Russia, large investments to maintain an archaic pipeline system are also required. Should these large investments not be made, supplies will be reduced and Russia would most likely increase prices to maintain its revenue flow. Europe’s natural gas suppliers are Norway, Russia, Central Asia and North Africa. Supplies from Iran are out of the question for the moment. Europe’s dependency might induce its suppliers to select its clients on the basis of a political agenda. The world’s leading gas producers are Russia, the United States, Canada, Iran and Norway. Several European countries are now proceeding with exploratory drillings but results are so far unavailable. Europe’s environmental concerns will no doubt lead to a reduced demand, of up to one-third by 2030 according to some forecasts, while the opposite will be true for Asia. Competition between the two continents for adequate supply will increasingly weigh on suppliers’ decisions with regard to the building of transport routes from Russia, Central Asia or the Gulf. These routes are significantly longer and therefore more expensive to reach the Asian markets than Europe. However, China’s massive foreign exchange reserves enable it to finance the building of gas pipelines over large distances and difficult terrain but the availability of Australian gas may not require them to make this outlay. China has also struck deals with foreign companies that will be drilling in China for shale gas. The government has set a target of producing 50% of its gas requirements. Another issue that is a cause of worry is the possibility of the creation of a gas producer’s cartel but that is unlikely as long as the market is dominated by long-term contracts and that producers and consumers have little flexibility in view of their link through the fixed structure that is a pipeline. Further, the interests of the gas producers are far from being homogeneous. The readiness of some consumers to invest in the necessary re-gasification terminals – and the assumption that corresponding liquefaction investments in developing countries will follow in uncertain markets where a five-year lead time maybe perceived as too long – to receive LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) reduces the dependence on the closest supplier which is Russia. It has, as an added advantage, the fact that LNG prices are not automatically indexed on oil prices. Price-wise, the indexation of the price of natural gas to that of oil, which is the case at present, has its limits as in case of a strong increase in the price of oil, which every pundit has been forecasting for the last half a dozen years, nuclear energy could become an even more attractive alternative than at present. More particularly, the cost of energy produced by a nuclear power station remains essentially unchanged over long periods of time, the risks being at a different level – safety and availability of uranium. An increase in Europe’s reliance on nuclear power would lessen its dependence on Russian gas. Investments in renewable energies remain small and therefore any impact these sources can have in a period of gas shortage remains marginal. Improvements in energy productivity would obviously have a major impact in gas imports in consuming countries. So would the discovery of major gas fields on the Old Continent, although production may be delayed by ecological fears of contamination of the aquifers. Russia would be the country most negatively affected as it is proceeding to develop fields that are difficult, and thus costly, to operate. Thus, the Shtokman project, in the Arctic, for instance, has been postponed. An incitement for consuming countries to obtain a stability of supplies consists in allowing suppliers to acquire local companies and thus integrate downstream in what is sometimes the most profitable end of the industry. However, he European Energy Charter regulates sales of infrastructure to non-EU companies. This has not stopped Russia’s Gazprom from acquiring a portfolio of companies and planning a major expansion downstream even though Russia, just like Venezuela, restricts foreign investment in their own infrastructure. Whether this will continue if demand drops remains to be seen. Political uncertainty is one more parameter to be taken into account in a developing market in which decisions on very large investments have to be made in situations of great uncertainty. Next Event the future of CERNCERN is the European Organization for Nuclear Research near Geneva, Switzerland, and famous for its particle accelerators, such as the Large Hadron Collider. Thursday, June 3, 2010Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15 Location: WTC – World Trade Center, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam Socratic conversation withDr. Sergio Bertolucci, Director for Research and Computing, CERN moderated by Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Physicist At the press event at CERN for Angels&Demons, left to right: Sergio Bertolucci (CERN Director for Research and Scientific Computing), Tara Shears (Liverpool University and the LHCb experiment), Tom Hanks, Ayelet Zurer, Rolf Landua (CERN) and Ron Howard. Restaurant of the Future The Restaurant of the Future is a cooperation between scientists of Wageningen UR, catering company Sodexho, Noldus software developers, and professional kitchen supplier Kampri Group. The Restaurant of the Future is a unique blend of research and practice aimed at something as common as eating and drinking. It is a place to experiment with new food products, preparation methods and self-service systems, and also a facility allowing close observation of consumer eating and drinking behaviour. Everything involving the Restaurant of the Future is unique. An environment only in its kind where scientists can observe restaurant frequenters in conditioned situations over a prolonged period of time. This research may include behaviour, food choice, design and layout, the influence of lighting, presentation, traffic flow, taste, packing, preparation and countless other aspects involving out of home eating and drinking.The Restaurant of the Future comprises two parts: A company restaurantopen to visitors who declared they have no objection being under close observation by cameras. Environmental aspects such as colour and lighting can be manipulated in the restaurant for research purposes A sensory consumer research labcan be used for businesses to assess their products – under various circumstances – for smell, colour and taste. A “living lab” for consumer studies Sensory laboratory with 16 cabins, incl. physiological measurements and face recognition Physiological laboratory (e.g. Taste/smell & EEG measurements) Multifunctional room: 8 extra sensory booths, training sessions, brainstorm sessions (concepts, flop analysis) Mood rooms to study the effects of situational factors on eating behaviour, on well-being, on performance Kitchens (4 in total) (Kampri Group) to study convenience of preparation, usage and cooking behaviour; to develop and test new preparationtechniques; direct link between product development and consumertesting Restaurant with flexible interiour (Sodexo) All rooms equipped with video cameras (total 35 cameras; Noldus) Imaging and data synchronisation & integration software Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com March 6: The world needs a new taxation paradigmMarch 3: Transformative ThinkingJanuary 8: Mobile Trends 2020October 6: … Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the ReceiverSeptember 21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community DevelopmentAugust 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media past News about the Future Australia plan will divert textiles from landfillThe Technical Textiles & Nonwoven Association (TTNA) released an engagement proposal for its bid to develop the Australian Fibre & Textile Environmental and Recycling Cooperative Research Centre (AFTER-CRC). Responding to intensified interest in the reuse, reclamation and regeneration of fibrousma terial, the TTNA is seeking engagement from manufactures, retailers and research and education institutions. Kerryn Caulfield, Executive Manager of the TTNA says: “While fibrous inputs are the TCF industry’s greatest overhead, (approx) one million tonnes of fibrous waste are buried in Australian landfills every year. Fibrous waste is an unrealised source of valuable raw materials that can be reclaimed for further use by developing frontier technology.” Ms Caulfield believes that the proposed CRC will provide interested companies with head start access to a new industry and an opportunity to exploit the commercial opportunities resulting from the centres’ activities. “Who would have thought thirty years ago that fortunes would be made from recycling goods such as paper and tyres? “ Inuit knowledge helps science learn something new about Arctic weather Inuit forecasters equipped with generations of environmental knowledge are helping scientists learn something new about Arctic weather. A study published this month in the journal Global Environmental Change brings together two worlds, combining indigenous environmental knowledge with the practice of statistical weather analysis. The study, a collaboration between researchers at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the University of Colorado at Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), shows that including the observations and stories of the Inuit into climate research can not only provide valuable insights into asking the right scientific questions, but help researchers find new ways of answering them. “It’s interesting how the western approach in my mind is often trying to understand things without necessarily experiencing them,” said Elizabeth Weatherhead, a research scientist with University of Colorado at Boulder’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. “With the Inuit, it’s much more of an experiential issue, and I think that fundamental difference brings a completely different emphasis both in defining what the important scientific questions are, and discerning how to address them.” Recommended Book Collider: The Search for the World’s Smallest Particles (Kindle Edition)by Paul Halpern An accessible look at the hottest topic in physics and the experiments that will transform our understanding of the universe The biggest news in science today is the Large Hadron Collider, the world’s largest and most powerful particle-smasher, and the anticipation of finally discovering the Higgs boson particle. But what is the Higgs boson and why is it often referred to as the God Particle? Why are the Higgs and the LHC so important? Getting a handle on the science behind the LHC can be difficult for anyone without an advanced degree in particle physics, but you don’t need to go back to school to learn about it. In Collider, award-winning physicist Paul Halpern provides you with the tools you need to understand what the LHC is and what it hopes to discover. The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet Ladies and Gentlemen, good morning First of all, I’d like to thank the organizers of this event, for inviting me to speak to you this morning. Today, I’d like to share with you some fundamental observations that should lead to a better understanding of how the future of technology must, and will likely, unfold, so that our planet can evolve in a more positive way. My talk today carries the title: The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet We can draw from this title three implications: Something important is about to begin It involves the concept of Intelligence, and It doesn’t concern only the future of our local world, but also that of our entire planet! Today I’d like to talk to you about the next important evolutionary step of humankind, which, I believe, will be known in the history books of the future as the period of transition from “Human Intelligence” to “Human-Machine Intelligence”! We are all here to participate in this amazing experience that will hopefully change the future of humankind in a radically new, positive way. Now, let me make a rather provoking statement: The only way of ensuring a safe and healthy evolution for our planet is by handing over all of our vital decisions and planning tasks to intelligent machines. Full Stop! Now, some of you may immediately begin envisioning large packs of dangerously out-of-control, “gone crazy” robots that will roam the planet, enslave the world, and end the freedom of humankind as we know it. As a former clinical psychologist, however, I can tell you that if these fearful thoughts do cross your mind, you are clearly “projecting.” That is, you’re projecting your own predatory human nature onto machines… But let me allay your fears at this point: No machine, no matter how intelligent, will ever be as unpredictable and dangerous as humans are today. Computer intelligence, as it will develop in this new era of human-machine intelligence, will be much safer, reasonable, and predictable than we, humans have ever been, at any time in our history. Just consider this: You can take a hammer, and smash a notebook computer in front of 50 other computers, and they will not even care, much less attack you for it… If you are not convinced yet, consider, for a brief moment, the collective human behavior of the past few millennia! I believe the record speaks for itself: Humans still are as they have always been: lethal predators, eager to kill, tireless seekers of opportunities to expand their power and possessions, regardless of the endless misery they inflict on themselves and others. Man has not changed! Not since the very early dark ages of humanity, some millions of years ago, when it all began. He is still the most dangerous and rapacious of all the creatures on the planet. Along these lines, man has built social, political and economic systems, which he has named ‘civilization’ and ‘civilized behavior’, but which are nothing more than very clever ways of practicing his ancient instincts of hunting and killing. To give a modern example, ‘man’ has invented financial markets: a zero-sum game, where one can gain only at the expense of another, with no regard to the collective detriment or the high cost that one’s gains may inflict on everyone else. And yet, man also has the most amazing and generous creative abilities, having produced, over the centuries, unequaled artistic and technological masterpieces that have indeed the potential of changing, for the better, his life and that of all the other creatures on this planet. Man has also invented machines. But like men, these machines can do nearly everything and more. They can build or destroy; communicate or hide in opaque secrecy; they can calculate, predict, make a space vehicle land on Mars with the precision of a square-meter, or deliver a deadly missile across 1000 miles into the bedroom window of an enemy… Now, the question we must ask ourselves is this: with more than six billion humans on the planet, equipped with these powerful technologies that can destroy or built up the Earth’s valuable infrastructures, how do we manage the ever accelerating evolution of more and more effective machines, given man’s unquenchable thirst for domination? How do we manage man’s willingness to engage in conflict, even if it takes his own life, or that of millions of others? Can we trust man in this more and more complex world to make local decisions that have global effects? Human management of this planet is truly in question! Something is really wrong here, because the human condition is not improving, in spite of all our wonderful abilities and beautiful innovations. On a global level, hunger and poverty are vastly increasing; economic distributions on a global scale are dangerously unequal, and even in the best of societies we have lost the sense of what is truly valuable in life. We are increasingly the slaves of communication devices, overwhelming information systems, and technology structures that have not adapted to human needs but, rather, forced humans to adopt their lifestyle to the intrusive technological infrastructures of this planet. Only a few months ago, I attended a public debate on the question if it were possible to live a week without any communication devices: for one week simply go back to the life we lived in the 19th century, with no phone, no TV, no Internet; spending time with the family in the evening, sitting together around the dinner table, and perhaps, reading from an interesting book to the family, by way of collective evening entertainment. During this debate, a lady in her late 80’s, a former professor of history, explained in great detail how it all was in her childhood. Things happened very slowly then. People still had time to think. People lived in some ways a harder life, but they were happier. The mental illness of depression was much rarer in those days. By the end of the debate, most agreed that a perfect vacation would be one without any technology… going back to basics… being “off”, rather then being “on” all the time. For me as a dedicated futurist and technologist, this was a clear sign that we are still missing a very essential ingredient, before technology becomes a true and positive catalyst in human development. In other words, we need to develop the next step in the evolution of humankind, the Human-Machine Intelligence. What is at stake here is no less than a process of co-evolution, in which humans and machines will become partners in creating a new mentality and better forms of life for everyone concerned. Let us remember that the development of technology is in fact a leading component of global human development. We MUST become aware of and live up to the exigencies of this new form of symbiosis and co-evolution. In this room, we all are closely related to technological development and its innovation. We are the people that are accountable for the very important transitions of humanity in the future. We must live up to this responsibility, today and in the future! So let me summarize my argument up to this point: if we are to usher in the dawn of Planetary Intelligence, we need to attend to the co-evolution of humans and machines. I’ll now look, first, at the machine part of the equation. One of the fundamental problems of today’s technology is that it still requires the participation of humans to function. In fact, we are occupied more than ever to interact with all of these devices and machines that we have build, rather than let them just do their work automatically. Technology is absorbing us, rather then helping us. Machines can do things very fast, but humans are very slow in evaluating the results of their performance. Again, the financial industry is a good example here, where computer-based, algorithmic trading becomes more and more a decision-processor in the millisecond space, where billions of dollars are being exposed to transactions that can no longer be followed by humans in real time. On the one hand, machines have evolved to a point where they can do substantial tasks, and act and react at speed levels that are highly uncomfortable or even intractable for humans. On the other hand, the machines of today still lack true intelligence, and therefore, they can cause substantial disasters, usually at high speeds that can substantially magnify the negative results. But we must also recognize that computing machines are beginning to close the gap between learning and acting. To refer, again, to the financial industry, computers now begin to read all global news automatically, analyze its content in milliseconds, and deploy trades instantaneously. But, of course, there is a disastrously weak link in this technology: the logic of executing trades is hard-coded by the so-called Quantitative Analysts. Herein lies the whole problem: should there be a change in the nature of data input, then the interpretation of these news feeds must change as well. But the current generation of machines can’t react, they are not allowed to deviate from their hard-coded instructions! Therefore, these machines are only half-smart. And that’s the point! What is needed is intelligent machines– not hard-coded rules, but true machine intelligence. Current artificial-intelligence systems are, as a rule, one of two types: logic-based or probability-based. But researchers, including myself, have developed lately new technologies and computer languages such as MIT’s Church, or my own Quantum Relation Technology Language called for short QRT, that combine the best aspects of each type, and make AI smarter, more humanlike. It started with AI researchers, back in the 1950s, who thought of the human mind as a set of rules to be programmed. Thus, they developed systems based on logical inferences: “if you know that birds can fly and are told that the Eagle is a bird, you can infer that Eagles can fly.” But with rule-based AI, every exception had to be accounted for. And we learned the systems couldn’t figure out that there were types of birds that couldn’t fly; they had to be told so explicitly, by coding these exceptions into the program. Later AI models gave up these extensive rule sets and turned to probabilities: “a computer is fed lots of examples of something – like pictures of birds – and is left to infer on its own what those examples have in common.” Church and QRT are both “grand unified theories of AI” with both systems creating probability-based rules that are constantly revised as the system encounters new situations. For example, a Church or QRT program that has never encountered a flightless bird might, initially, set the probability that any bird can fly at 99 percent. But as it learns more about the Ostrich or the Penguins, and caged and broken-winged birds – it revises its probabilities continuously. Eventually, the probabilities represent most of the conceptual distinctions that early AI researchers would have had to code by hand. But the system learns those distinctions itself over time – much the way humans learn new concepts and revise old ones. In the early years of my research in defining new models of AI, I also called this approach “Human-Emulated Artificial Intelligence.” Today we know that these new approaches surpass already current AI models. Newly developed applications in which, for example, a QRT system was deployed to make predictions based on a set of observations, did a “significantly better job of modeling intelligent returns, than traditional artificial-intelligence algorithms did in the past.” Of course, these new technologies still need further improvements and specific operations are extremely “computationally intensive” when they tackle broader-based problems. I am sure that the Hardware division of IBM is delighted about this fact, because it insures the prolific sales of supercomputers well into the future. Nevertheless, this is only the beginning! New systems must begin to model global problems, and must have the ability to understand and process interdisciplinary problems in parallel, internally and continuously. Such global systems must have the ability to contain all local problems within; they must be globally connected and must fully account for the “butterfly effect.” And this, ladies and gentlemen, requires the building of a fully interconnected and intelligent planet! This, of course, also brings me back to the beginning of my talk and to the other term in our co-evolutionary equation: the human factor. I’d like to say this once again: Intelligent machines should not only solve systematic local problems, more importantly, they must become an important and responsible part of global human development. As one of my close friends and collaborators, Prof. Mihai I. Spariosu from the University of Georgia, in the US, has argued, global intelligence is the ability to understand, respond to, and work toward what will benefit all human beings and will support and enrich all life on this planet. Global intelligence is based on the collective awareness of the interdependence of all localities within a global frame of reference and the enhanced individual responsibilities that result from this inter-dependence. As no national or supra-national authority can predefine or predetermine it, global intelligence involves long-term, collective learning processes and can emerge only from continuing intercultural connectivity, open dialogue, and peaceful cooperation of all members of the planet. The phrase “what will benefit all human beings” in this context, however, should not be understood in the utilitarian, restricted sense that implies the excessive, materialistic focus over the wellbeing of humanity in general. The new models of global intelligence will sooner or later give humans back their freedom to no longer be overly concerned with the management, or even the productivities of this planet, but with the responsible enhancement, stewardship, and enjoyment of its beautiful gifts. The science fictions of the 60s and the 70s in the last century always envisioned the year 2000 as a futuristic society where computers did all the management, and the robots did all the productivity. But the year 2000 came and went… and there is still no trace of such a society. What is still missing is this “unified theory of intelligence” that would enable us to build our societies, based on global intelligence, which is in turn based on the co-evolution and symbiosis between man and machine. We are now working towards such goals. But we must not stop developing the tools needed to get there. So, let me highlight some of the basic technologies and infrastructures that need to be developed to bring about the “Intelligent Planet” in the foreseeable future: We need to develop massive, supercomputer-driven, global knowledge centers that manage all of the Earth’s open-source data globally, and analyze its content in an interdisciplinary and intercultural form. We must connect all these global knowledge centers, so that they can become a globally connected mash of knowledge depositories We must also develop a global mash of networked sensory devices and data extraction technologies that collect information of any kind 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and transport such information in real time into the knowledge depositories We must develop the best AI solutions possible, to continually search our knowledge depositories for deep-rooted patterns and understandings that point to globally responsible opportunities and common planetary risks We must build access technologies that allow anyone at any time to access these analytical knowledge depositories and use its information at no cost, to allow human development independent from economical power We must build broadcast technologies that use a world-standard format, and continuously broadcasting streams of data and information, which include any type of risk or corrective information that may be vital to human development We must develop these solutions as global utility that remains free of charge, and free of all political and dogmatic influences All vital human services, such as global commerce, healthcare, education or even governance must become a global solution with local subsets All local machine intelligence must have full access to these automated global knowledge networks All global information must remain open-source knowledge, available to all members of this planet Implementing these 10 points will be the vital base for the Intelligent Planet.And finally, we must realize this: Today, there is only one serious technology player left on this planet that can take us to this future, that is, the future of the Intelligent Planet. The player I am talking about is IBM. It will take astronomical amounts of investment into newer and faster hardware technologies, comprehensive commitments to develop new global middleware and interconnecting mash technologies, as well as other similar systems, to work toward this Intelligent Planet But one thing is clear: We must make the Intelligent Planet our most important goal. Given the complexity of modern society and the desideratum of continuous, peaceful human development we MUST work toward its successful accomplishment, and not be stuck in debates about its necessity. So, I encourage everybody in this room, to be part of one of the most challenging, but also most rewarding frontiers of our millennium: The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet. Thank You! See also The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet IDEO – a global design and innovation firm IDEO‘s focus lies at the intersection of insight and inspiration, and is informed by business, technology, and culture. “Design thinking is an approach that uses the designer’s sensibility and methods for problem solving to meet people’s needs in a technologically feasible and commercially viable way. In other words, design thinking is human-centered innovation.” – Tim Brown, CEO, IDEO … just a few projects As part of Living Climate Change, IDEO New York imagines Manhattan in 2030 as a city without trash. When most people consider the environmental impact of trash, steamy landfills and smoky incinerators come to mind. The reality, however, is that these are merely endpoints of a much larger system. Come take a look or view more scenarios at Living Climate Change, a place to discuss the most defining design challenge of our time. Improving the long-haul flight experience for international travelers Air New Zealand provides passenger and cargo services within the country and to and from Australia, the South Pacific, Asia, North America, and the United Kingdom. Over the past decade, the airline has recovered from near bankruptcy and become a strong regional competitor. In 2009, Air New Zealand served more than 12 million passengers, and Condé Nast Traveller ranked it as the No. 2 long-haul leisure carrier worldwide and also recently won the Air Transport World Airline of the Year Award. Air New Zealand is slated to be the first customer for Boeing’s long-awaited Dreamliner 787-9, due in 2013. To prepare for the launch of its new Boeing 777-300 aircraft in November 2010, Air New Zealand scrutinized its current long-haul offering. The company asked IDEO to rethink the entire experience – from the cabin’s layout and equipment, such as the seating in economy and business class, to the in-flight service and entertainment and even their customers’ experience inside and beyond the terminal. Drawing on its human-centered design expertise, IDEO quickly understood that any service provided by a national carrier should reflect the culture of the country it represents. This proved especially true for New Zealand, a country very proud of its airline and of what it has to offer the world. The creative team immersed itself in the culture, making a half-dozen trips abroad, and spending an intensive month in the North and South Islands. The team gained a deep understanding of the New Zealanders’ way and through this understood that New Zealand-style customer service should be generous, humble, and thoroughly democratic. This research and its findings, a series of collaborative workshops, the construction of full-scale seating prototypes, and the creation of a video outlining new service scenarios and opportunities, inspired and empowered Air New Zealand to share the unique aspects of its culture with future travelers in a pioneering way. Together, Air New Zealand and IDEO revamped the airline’s equipment, service, and technology strategy. Innovative seats will allow travelers one of two desired experiences: connection and socialization or solitude and retreat. Their reconfigurable design permits each passenger a level of interaction with (or privacy from) others that was previously reserved only for those in first class. In addition to best-in-class video and gaming, in-flight entertainment will allow travelers, Kiwi and foreigner alike, to share their experiences, photos and recommendations with each other, making plans and preserving memories for the life that follows disembarkation. The airline’s service strategy, both onboard and on the ground, will shift to celebrate the people, rather than the landscape, of New Zealand – giving crew and passenger alike opportunities to interact and form meaningful connections. Policies and procedures were crafted to give travelers more control of their space, of their time, of meeting their demands and ultimately over having an enjoyable and memorable flight. Creating their own technology platform was essential to delivering on this promise of improved and individualized in-flight experiences at scale. IDEO worked with Air New Zealand to understand what they could do – build, buy, or partner – with a view towards near-term implementation. “[IDEO] reminded us that with the world’s longest hauls, we had a greater obligation than any other airline to give passengers more,” Ed Sims, Air New Zealand’s GM of International Airline said. “We wanted a creative agency to really challenge our own creative talent [and] IDEO was a standout. [With their help] we’ve reinvented everything we do and given choice and control back to the passenger.” Ethical consumerism concepts for Oxfam GBIn 2007 and 2008, Oxfam partnered with IDEO to increase awareness of ethical consumption as a means of alleviating social and environmental problems. To better understand consumer behaviors, IDEO and Oxfam sought opinions from shoppers, finding that most are loyal to trusted brands, that aesthetics trump virtue, and that consumers ideally want brands to act ethically. The resulting design principles reinforced sexiness over sacrifice and included such concepts as a guerrilla marketing campaign and an environmental impact evaluation program. Futurist Portrait: John R Grizz Deal John R Grizz Deal is CEO of Hyperion Power Generation. Grizz has over twenty years of experience in technology commercialization and fast growing ventures, in both product development and chief executive roles. Grizz was previously the managing director at Purple Mountain Ventures (PMV), serving a dozen international firms on product development, capital expansion, and marketing. Grizz also serves as a director of the U.S. National Lab Seed Fund, a venture capital fund focused on innovations developed by the U.S. Department of Energy laboratory complex. Grizz is the former TVC entrepreneur in residence with the U.S. Department of Energy/NNSA, visiting entrepreneur at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), chief marketing officer for Space Imaging, the founder and former CEO of LizardTech, and a consulting scientist at LANL. Grizz is a frequent speaker and writer on energy technology and policy, starting and growing advanced technology-based ventures, and issues in raising capital for such ventures. He is a member of the board of directors for the International Clean Energy Alliance, and serves on the boards of several PMV portfolio firms. Grizz has raised over $200 million in risk capital for his ventures and holds graduate and undergraduate degrees in geography from Texas A&M University. “The Hyperion Power Module was originally conceived to provide clean, affordable power for remote industrial applications such as oil sands operations,” said Deal. “Yet, the initial enthusiasm has been from those needing reliable electricity for communities. The big question for the 21st century is, ‘how do we provide safe energy to those who need it, indeed those developing nations who demand it, without contributing to climate change?’ Today’s safer, proliferation-resistant nuclear power technology is the answer, but it’s not feasible for every community to be tied to a large nuclear power plant. Some communities, those that need power for just the most basic humanitarian infrastructure, such as clean water production for household use and irrigation, are too remote for conventional nuclear power. This is where the Hyperion Power Module, a safe, secure, transportable power generator can help.” Agenda Season Program 2009 / 2010 June 3, 201018:30-21:15 the future of CERNLocation: WTC – World Trade Center, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam
Friday, May 14, 2010 Dwindling resources and lack of mechanisms to exploit technology present opportunities as well as risks
Content Sustainable Technologies for the Next Decade Videos: the future of CERN Future Retail Center Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Recommended book Photo voltaic panels When Zero means All Futurist Portrait: Michio Kaku Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. You now can find the videos of ‘the future of CERN’ with Dr. Sergio Bertolucci, Director for Research and Computing, CERN – a fantastic evening ! This was the closing event of the season 2009/2010. We will after the summer break announce the events of the next season.Enjoy your holidays! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Sustainable Technologies for the Next Decade Cientifica White Paper, May 2010By Tim Harper, CEO, Dexter Johnson, Strategy Director, Hailing Yu, Research Director, CientficaTim is an Expert of the Club of Amsterdam Sustainable Investment Strategies for the 21st CenturyDwindling resources and lack of mechanisms to exploit technology present opportunities as well as risks Prophets, priests, scientists and environmentalists have been gleefully predicting the end of the world for several millennia but it won’t happen. One of the reasons that the human species has been so successful has been our ability to adapt to changing environments, enabling us, like viruses, to colonise almost every part of the planet and make use of every available resource. But there is a problem – we have made use of every available resource, and while some, like silicon make up 25.7% of the Earth’s crust by weight and are to all intents and purposes inexhaustible, many others such as indium are not. The problem is compounded by many of the scarcer elements being a small cog in a large wheel, so while materials such as aluminium, steel and many plastics can be and are recycled, recovering the small amounts of indium from broken touch screens is neither feasible nor cost effective. So what can we do with increasingly scarce resources? The problems with elements, as opposed to compounds, is that as fundamental building blocks we cannot create more material, nor is there an abundant source of material containing the elements in question. If we need hydrogen or oxygen they can be simply made from water, but there are few abundant compounds containing rare earths. As a result we need to find a new solution, and quickly. Which brings us to the question of investment in emerging technologies. The first decade of the 21st Century was characterised by unfocussed hype, with investors piling in and then out of ill defined areas such as nanotechnology and cleantech, leaving few of them richer or any the wiser. The problem was that, seduced by visions of a technological utopia (or perhaps too much Star Trek), bets were placed on technologies not products, but faced with being left behind in a Gold Rush, many investors were quite happy to toss their investing rule book out of the window, again and again, and again. However, the same decade was also characterised by an unprecedented level of global scientific investment in areas from nanotechnology to synthetic biology, and while the investment community was either wrestling with pushing technologies onto a tech-agnostic world, or reliving the dot.com days, this has led to somewhat of a technological overhang (i.e. while the markets may not have needed some of the recent technological developments, they are there and waiting to be exploited). Over the coming decade we expect this glacier of emerging but rapidly maturing science to calve a number of world changing technologies. With this technological overhang waiting to be exploited, and in order to prevent the waste of yet more billions by venture capital, local and regional development agencies, and companies, here’s our view of where the hot new growth areas of the second decade of the century will be and why we need to focus on the applications, not the technology. We see the opportunities falling into two broad categories, ‘Doing More With Less’ and ‘ReplacingScarce Resources.’ Taking both areas together we have the basis of a real 21st Century sustainable technology investment model, one that fills the gap between the grimy present reality and the sunlit sustainable future. Doing More With LessMost of the focus of ‘Clean Tech’ has been on producing new sources of sustainable energy, wind, solar, and new forms of electric propulsion being the poster children. However, the attention showered on these areas has led to an intensely competitive situation, with both the amounts of investment required to become a ‘player’ and the deal valuations climbing into the billions of dollars. Konarka Technologies, one of the earliest players in the thin film photovoltaics area, has burned through over $100 million in VC funding without seeing much in the way of revenues, while Nanosolar has raised $295 million to date. While we are confident that the problem of producing cheap, high-output, photovoltaics using a roll-to-roll process will be solved one day, it will take several hundreds of millions of dollars to become a major player, and that’s not something many investors can stomach. It is a similar story with battery technologies, huge amounts of investment, a large number of players, an uncertain market and an end result of two or three dominant technologies. This looks like shark-infested waters from an investment point of view. With much of the silly money already committed to the more obvious clean-tech projects such as solar, where then should we look for value? While the chase steps up for new energy sources (remembering that fusion has been twenty years a way for the last forty years) a quicker and cheaper solution is to make better use of existing resources. Assuming that It will take ten to twenty years for new sources for renewables to become competitive with existing sources and Market forces will drive up the cost of dwindling resources in the meantime Current investment levels in renewables have priced many investors out of the market then many of the real opportunities lie in mitigating the economic impact of dwindling resources, i.e. making better use of what is currently available as discussed in our March 2007 white paper ‘Nanotech:Cleantech.’ Typical examples are better insulated buildings using aero gels which can help reduce 30% of carbon emissions generated from households, while lighter, stronger materials based on nanotechnology are being used in cars, buses and aeroplanes to dramatically improve fuel efficiency. Simultaneously, advances in fuelcells and hybrid electric powered vehicles are enabling the world’s largest automotive manufacturers to produce low- or zero-emission vehicles that combine energy efficiency with the kind of performance with which consumers have grown accustomed. Nanomaterials such as graphene and carbon nanotubes are crucial in these applications. In the meantime, the use of fuel-borne catalysts based on nanomaterials are being used to improve diesel fuel efficiency by as much as 10%. Replacing scarce resourcesThe last twenty thousand years of human society has been characterised by an increasing sophistication in our use of materials sourced from the natural environment. As a species we have moved from early tools fashioned from ‘found’ materials such as bone and flint to increasingly sophisticated and engineered materials. However, despite our technological sophistication, many of these materials, steel and aluminium for example are still based on ore extraction, many polymers are still based on oil, and even highly sophisticated devices such as semiconductors are based on the energy intensive modification of naturally occurring materials. Even commonly used drugs are based on natural resources whose supply can be affected by global trade and climatic variations.The limiting factor in the manufacture of the antiviral drug Tamiflu (oseltamivir), for example, is the availability of shikimic acid, which is obtained industrially from the spice star anise. Roche already buys some 90% of the harvest, with thirteen grams of star anise making 1.3 grams of shikimic acid, which can be made into 10 oseltamivir 75 mg capsules. With a rapidly increasing global population, the demand for resources of all kinds is increasing, from steel to electricity, from food to medicine.The Global Footprint Network estimates that “It would now take nearly one and a half Earths to generate all the resources humanity consumes and absorb all our CO2 emissions, according to the latest Ecological Footprint and biocapacity calculations” Our Ecological Footprint (Source Global Footprint Network) This leads to a number of major problems, both economic and political. The issues of oil supply and energy independence are well documented, but an article published in New Scientist in April 2007 paints a rather pessimistic picture of the state of many natural resources indicating that some crucial materials such as Indium have only fifteen years supply left. A global recession has changed the picture somewhat, with resource prices tumbling from their 2008 peak, and market forces will, of course, put a brake on the use of some materials as scarcity drives up prices, but it is an inescapable fact that we are approaching the end of the line in some areas, if not in fifteen years, then in twenty or thirty. Of perhaps more concern is the reliance on extractive industries for the supply of a number of highly important rare earths that are relatively concentrated in a few locations. The situation is exacerbated by the lack of rare earth processing available outside China. As a result China now controls 97% of the global supply of 17 rare earths. Global demand for rare earths has tripled from 40,000 tonnes to 120,000 tonnes over the past 10 years, during which time China has steadily cut annual exports from 48,500 tonnes to 31,310 tonnes. The old way of doing things Avalon Rare Metals, a Toronto-listed mining company, estimates that about 25% of new green technologies rely on minor metals and rare earths. A typical example is Neodymium, one of the most common rare earths, which is a key part of neodymiumiron-boron magnets used in hyper-efficient motors and generators. Around two tonnes of neodymium are needed for each wind turbine. Lanthanum, another REE, is a major ingredient for hybrid car batteries (each Prius uses up to 15kg), while terbium is vital for low-energy light bulbs and cerium is used in catalytic converters. Each electric Prius motor requires 1 kilogram (2.2 lb) of neodymium, and each battery uses 10 to 15 kg (22-33 lb) of lanthanum. That number is expected to nearly double under plans to boost the fuel economy. While the supply of petrochemicals and rare earths is grabbing headlines, a similar situation exists across many commodities, with limited supplies and political independence threatening the feedstock of industries ranging from semiconductors to construction. While some may recoil in horror at the apocalyptic scenarios being suggested, others may view this as an opportunity. Previous attempts at predicting the relationship between population growth and resources have always failed to take technological advance into account, and there is no reason to believe that the 21st century doomsday scenarios will be any more valid than Thomas Malthus’ 18th century ones. Why? Because just as improvements in agriculture ensured that the growing population would not be limited by food production, improvements in areas such as nanotechnology, industrial biotechnology and synthetic biology are all showing the potential to alleviate a raw materials crisis. Nanotechnology is engineering on the scale of atoms and small molecules. What that means to natural resources is that instead of extracting and purifying ores we can now start to think about what properties an ideal material for a specific application might be and begin to design one. If that sounds far fetched then we only have to look at how nature has designed almost perfect materials for structures (bone, that is rigid without being brittle and to some extent self healing), data processing (neurons) and data storage (DNA contains all the instructions needed to build a complex structure like a human being, and fits all of this into less space than Microsoft Office would take up). The Toyota Prius – Clean, green but highly dependent on rare earths Through the use of nanotechnologies we can now start to develop processes that do not use rare resources, for example using carbon nanotubes and metallic nanoparticles in polymers to make them conducting rather than applying thin layers of indium tin oxide. As resource prices climb, engineering alternative materials becomes increasingly viable, both from a scientific and a financial viewpoint. We should be clear here that the holy grail of ‘materials by design’ is some way outside the investment horizon for most institutions, but there is a half way house already available, by combining new and old materials, nanotubes and polymers for example, to create something more suitable than traditional materials. Typical examples include conducting polymers for applications from electronics to the automotive industry, and nanomaterials reinforced composite materials designed to replace heavier materials such as steel or costly ones such as aluminium or titanium. While it is unlikely that these new materials will ever completely replace existing ones, in the same way that new electronic materials will never fully replace silicon, the increased range of options allows us to reduce the rate at which natural resources are being depleted. Industrial, or White Biotechnology has acquired something of a bad name recently due to its use in the production of biofuels from, or at the expense of, food crops but the potential for sustainability runs much deeper. By engineering organisms to convert a basic feedstock into a higher value product, applications, industrial biotechnology allows a more sustainable chemistry to be developed, both reducing the chemical industry’s dependence on petrochemical products and allowing smaller scale, more local production to take place. By concentrating on using byproducts as feedstock rather than as a primary product, the technology has the potential to create high-value fine chemicals and pharmaceuticals from what would otherwise be classed as waste materials. As with nanotechnology, industrial biotechnology will never replace existing production methods, but once again gives us a wider range of more sustainable options to choose from. In the end, it will be resource prices and market demand that drive the industry. Deng Xiaoping – Resource Visionary? ConclusionsThe world is going through what some have described as a ‘Golden Age of Science,’ but more importantly the combination of scientific advances plus computing power plus Internet communication is allowing science to proceed at an ever faster rate, while the communications via the Internet, twitter and mobile devices such as iPads have increased scientists awareness of other disciplines. The age of microfiches and ordering reprints of journal articles is long gone, which has vastly increased scientific productivity. New materials and production methods are emerging, some of which have the potential to initially supplement, and possibly replace existing materials and production methods. While that means that business opportunities based on science and engineering are increasing dramatically, these must be carefully mapped to the addressable markets. We believe that ‘Doing More With Less’ and ‘Replacing Scarce Resources’ represent an irresistible market pull, and something that smart investors will use to channel the fruits of the new scientific renaissance.See also the Club of Amsterdam blog Sustainable Technologies for the Next Decade Videos: the future of CERN Videos: the future of CERN Future Retail Center The Future Retail Center, located in Regensdorf, Switzerland, and managed by SAP Research CEC Zurich, is a joint effort between SAP Research and industrial and academic partner organizations to foster research and development in retail, trade, and logistics. One major goal of the Future Retail Center is to improve the customer experience while optimizing in-store processes with intelligent deployment of IT and SAP systems. RFID, sensor-based systems, and other information and communications technologies enable the complete visibility and traceability of handling units along the supply chain. These systems and technologies can be used to automate and optimize end-to-end processes – generating a tremendous benefit for businesses and customers. As a result, visualization of in-store stock and automatic replenishment processes may be realized in the near future. The Future Retail Center is divided into three scenarios with unique goals: Retail Enable customers to navigate stores using mobile devices Automate stores with automatic stock and replenishment processes Retail Management Manage stores, warehouses, and plants with Smart Vending Machines, controlled remotely or from plants or retail stores, over a digital map Logistics Optimize processes, from the production stage to the store floor, with different solutions along the supply chain Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com June 16: Deep DivingJune 16: LeadershipMay 14: Sustainable Technologies for the Next DecadeMay 10: What is the future of natural gas in Europe?April 8: The Dawn of the Intelligent Planet News about the Future Energy Outlook The Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific () aims to estimate, for each of the regional members of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the future demand for energy, supply options to 2030 for a business-as-usual scenario, investment requirements for meeting this demand, and the resulting CO2 emissions potential associated with increasing energy demand. The Energy Outlook also attempts to identify key issues that need to be considered to mitigate the adverse impacts of the increasing energy demand in the region. Japanese firm wants to transform the Moon into a giant solar power plant The Shimizu Corporation, a Japanese construction firm, has recently proposed a plan to harness solar energy on a larger scale than almost any previously proposed concept. Their ambitious plan involves building a belt of solar cells around the Moon’s 6,800-mile (11,000-kilometer) equator, converting the electricity to powerful microwaves and lasers to be beamed at Earth, and finally converting the beams back to electricity at terrestrial power stations. The Luna Ring concept, the company says, could meet the entire world’s energy needs. Recommended Book You Are Not a Gadgetby Jaron Lanier For the most part, Web 2.0 – Internet technologies that encourage interactivity, customization, and participation – is hailed as an emerging Golden Age of information sharing and collaborative achievement, the strength of democratized wisdom. Jaron Lanier isn’t buying it. In You Are Not a Gadget, the longtime tech guru/visionary/dreadlocked genius (and progenitor of virtual reality) argues the opposite: that unfettered – and anonymous – ability to comment results in cynical mob behavior, the shouting-down of reasoned argument, and the devaluation of individual accomplishment. Lanier traces the roots of today’s Web 2.0 philosophies and architectures (e.g. he posits that Web anonymity is the result of ’60s paranoia), persuasively documents their shortcomings, and provides alternate paths to “locked-in” paradigms. Though its strongly-stated opinions run against the bias of popular assumptions, You Are Not a Gadget is a manifesto, not a screed; Lanier seeks a useful, respectful dialogue about how we can shape technology to fit culture’s needs, rather than the way technology currently shapes us. University of Illinois Scientists Demonstrate Us Little Known Solutions to Create More Effective Photo voltaic panels by Shannon Combs Even if silicon is actually the market normal semiconductor in most electronic products, which includes the solar cells that photo voltaic panels use to convert sunshine into power, it is not really the most cost-efficient material on the market. For instance, the semiconductor gallium arsenide and similar compound semiconductors offer nearly two times the performance as silicon in photo voltaic products, however they are rarely employed in utility-scale applications mainly because of their excessive production price. University of Illinois professors J. Rogers and X. Li investigated lower-cost methods to create thin films of gallium arsenide which also granted adaptability in the sorts of products they might be integrated into. If you may lower significantly the expense of gallium arsenide and other compound semiconductors, then you can expand their own range of applications. Generally, gallium arsenide is placed in a single thin layer on a smaller wafer. Either the wanted device is created directly on the wafer, or the semiconductor-coated wafer is cut up into chips of the ideal dimension. The Illinois team considered to put in multiple levels of the material on a one wafer, producing a layered, “pancake” stack of gallium arsenide thin films. If you grow ten levels in one growth, you only have to fill the wafer 1 time. If you do this in ten growths, loading and unloading with temperature ramp-up as well as ramp-down get a lot of time. If you consider exactly what is necessary for every growth – the machine, the preparation, the time, the people – the overhead saving this approach presents is a important price decrease. Following the researchers separately peel off the layers and transport them. To complete this, the stacks swap layers of aluminum arsenide with the gallium arsenide. Bathing the stacks in a formula of acid and an oxidizing agent dissolves the levels of aluminum arsenide, freeing the single small sheets of gallium arsenide. A soft stamp-like device picks up the layers, 1 at a time from the top down, for move to another substrate – glass, plastic or silicon, depending on the application. Next the wafer could be used again for one more growth. By executing this it’s possible to produce much more material a lot more quickly and more price efficiently. This process could produce mass amounts of material, as compared to just the thin single-layer way in which it is usually grown. Freeing the material from the wafer additionally starts the possibility of flexible, thin-film electronics produced with gallium arsenide or other high-speed semiconductors. To make units that may conform but still keep higher efficiency, which is significant. In a document written and published online May twenty in the academic journal Nature, the team details its techniques and shows 3 kinds of units making use of gallium arsenide chips made in multilayer stacks: light devices, high-speed transistors and photo voltaic cells. The authors additionally supply a comprehensive cost comparability. One more benefit associated with the multilayer technique is the release from area constraints, especially essential for photo voltaic cells. As the layers are removed from the stack, they can be laid out side-by-side on an additional substrate in order to generate a much bigger surface area, whereas the typical single-layer procedure limits area to the size of the wafer. For photovoltaics, you need large area coverage to catch as much sunshine as achievable. In an extreme situation we might grow enough layers to have 10 times the area of the standard. Up coming, the team programs to investigate more potential item applications and other semiconductor resources which could adapt to multilayer growth. Shannon Combs publishes articles for the residential solar power systems web site, her personal hobby blog centered on guidelines to help home owners to save energy with solar power. When Zero means All Arnab B Chowdhury,Expert of the Club of Amsterdam Authors: Rémi Boutinet, Prarthana Kalaskar, Arnab B Chowdhury – Core members, IndiaThinksIndiaThinks is Ninād’s research arm, which focuses on Strategies that unite Knowledge-Business-Consciousness in harmony. www.ninad.in “ma 27 ta 54116”, says Gomathi, “is the treatment for this child” and performs it successfully. Success is measured by the width of the smile on the child’s face that reaches the eyes and his/her willingness to come back happily in case some other problem arises. Gomathi, a housewife, is one of the few health hygienists from rural India who have been trained for dental health care. An important element of the small dental care ripple that is revolutionizing life, she works in the villages neighbouring Auroville, Tamil Nadu, (south India). The focus of this programme is training women and primarily treating children: treat the children and train them well in dental care while young and they will have fewer problems when they grow up. The treatment “ma 27 ta 54116” meant filing a cavity of “the second left upper molar filling in occlusal surface with composite”, indeed a unique way of communicating a diagnosis. The treatment and its delivery are unique too! Knowledge owners and stakeholdersThis human-centric dental care programme holds enormous potential to be replicated, scaled, sustained and co-opted along with other health care initiatives, globally. What we have here is a perfect integration of: experiential knowledge open access for all individuals to this knowledge-practice a learning that can be implemented without any discrimination or cultural barriers creation of a sense of service to one’s community a respectable remuneration with minimal investment All one needs is a flat surface for the patient to lie upon, a stool for the dental health worker and minimal necessary instruments and materials to perform the basic treatments. In practice, basic treatments can be carried out on the field: in schools, village halls or in health centres with minimum equipment and resources. The dental health worker is trained by dentists in Atraumatic Restoration Treatment (ART). ART for dental care developed in Tanzania in the mid-80s. The World Health Organisation (WHO) started to actively promote it in the early 90s as the first line of dental treatment in developing countries. ART is an approach for both prevention and treatment of dental caries in children and grown ups. ART equips dental health workers to spot caries early and treat them immediately with minimal tools and infrastructure. For this particular dental health care programme, the “ART” technique is associated with Zero Concept and Proprioception. Pedagogy-driven design and practice Zero Concept and Proprioception“Backaches and neck pains were the bane of my life” said Dr. Jacques Verré, the founder of the Auroville Dental Care Centre and this programme; “most dentists suffer from them; it is a like a professional hazard. But ever since I learned and started to use Concept Zero and PD during my practice, I have been a happy man. I also taught it to my colleagues. Now my patients, my assistants, fellow doctors and I are free from pains that occur during treatment” (Dr. Verré is a Frenchman settled in Auroville, India). Dr. Amar Raja his colleague at the main Centre, Ms Suryagandhi who heads the rural dental care programme and looks after the main Centre agree with him wholeheartedly. Dr. Verré’s clinic looks like a Zen temple equipped with some state-of-art gadgets for analysis. Zero, an ancient Indian concept, starts with ‘nothing’ (not a thing) — absence of preconceptions or biases. The general idea of Zero Concept is that, for a given condition, there is an elemental or basic condition to which it can be compared to and from which other conditions can be inferred. When applied to health care, health or the absence of need for care is the goal, and is represented by the numeric 0. Proprioception (‘self-perception’ from Latin) is the self-awareness of the position and movements within our own body. There is an instinctive logical response of our body to perform a precise task for its optimal use. Only a state of body balance (Ø condition) in free space allowing free movements can enhance our manual skills with more accuracy and less tension. This inborn physical perception called “Proprioceptive Derivation” (PD) is not a question of culture but is characteristic of all human beings, a common heritage. Consciousness approach Human-centered designThis form of dentistry is the result of a life-long pursuit of a better way to practice dentistry by American dentist, Dr. Daryl Beach, residing in Osaka, Japan. He redesigned the dentistry equipment through Proprioceptive Derivation (PD) to let the body of the performer move freely in open space – avoid stressful positions and useless waste of energy. The best position of the operator’s head, body, and fingers is determined by masked-eye tests using the proprioceptive senses of the body. The proprioceptive senses of the body are used to derive the most ergonomic design of dental equipment and instruments. Typically, one needs about 20 forceps to address ailments of 32 different types of teeth. With this method the need is only for 2! The result is a new way of performing dentistry! The relationship of operator to patient is stabilized and consistently keeps the dentist in a full upright alert seated posture behind the head of the patient. The dentist’s upright posture allows the best control of the fine stabilized finger movements required when operating in the mouth and on the teeth positioned at the “zero” point. The patient is offered a lying or full rest position for treatment on a stable horizontal support. The traditional tilting dental chair is of no use as it even jeopardizes the balance of the operator, the operator does not bend over the patient anymore in a stressful posture causing life-long back pain. Zero Concept of Health is based on “Experience” or “a Sensing” — Proprioception. The concept centers on “knowing” the positions, movements, contacts and discomfort that we sense within our bodies as both providers and receivers of care. The scope of concerns includes derivation of all acts, space and human interface with technology in clinics, hospitals or field care for achieving desired outcomes. Thus Zero Concept and Proprioceptive Derivation (PD) can be applied to the entire range of health care pursuit and Life in general. However, there is still a long way to go for this concept to reach out and be accepted in the conservative world of dentistry. Knowledge-based sustainability approach for Health Care Positive health is in extending the knowing to doing Knowledge (expressed and latent) is an asset Shared knowledge and collaborative action foster “health equities” Equities “hold and carry” value – emotional and tangible Losses are to be seized as occasions for learning in real time Profits are to be measured in terms of larger, intense and long-term impacts measured over a generation of population Language for Outreach:Although innovative and universal, this concept disrupts the traditional habits and thoughts and perhaps the present business model and profit-seeking motivation of the equipment manufacturers. Resistance to Zero Concept and Proprioceptive Derivation (PD) also stems from a lack of knowledge about the technique and the acceptance of the concept of minimal intervention. This way of doing dentistry is being practiced by very few dentists and these dentists are scattered throughout the world. Dr. Beach developed a syllabo-numeric language for easy and precise communication. The global terms, which can be both written and spoken, use the most common syllables in the world (ma, me, mi, mu, mo, ta, te, to…) in combination with digits. The numeric 0 is the basic reference for easy codification and classification of information. Example: the lingo “ma li le”, also written “ma 21”, designates the upper left incisor. In this case, “ma” means the mouth in its xyz coordinates, li or 2 means the first quarter (upper left) and, le or 1 means the first teeth of the quarter. The jaws are indeed numbered clockwise into four intuitive quarters. More advanced example sited earlier is for a treatment: “ma 27 ta 54116” means “the second left upper molar filling in occlusal surface with composite”. This means, all dentists (no matter which country they belong to or the dental courses they have studied) and even a hygienist who has no scientific background, can record her work and can communicate without misunderstanding. The Global Terms are learnt together with the PD exercises. Gains without Pains: A win-win for all! Gain from the care provider’s perspective: The programme is based on the universal ‘Zero(Ø) Concept’, a reasoning applied to Proprioceptive Derivation (PD) and is easy to learn Recognised as para-medical training programme, the Atraumatic Restoration Treatment (ART) is promoted by the WHO for developing countries where local population is trained to deliver basic dental care The health workers are trained in the Zero Concept reasoning, which consists of a series of self-awareness exercises aimed at finding out one’s preferred body conditions. A syllabo-numeric terminology to describe various dental conditions and their treatment help the dental health workers to overcome language barriers Thus equipped, the health workers can perform basic treatments in the most efficient way Gain from the care receiver’s perspective: Location for treatment can be a school verandah, temple hall or even under a tree. Simple natural settings drives away fears of visiting a dentist/dental worker Prevention is key: simple and early cares prevents tooth extraction, pain, painful treatment, expenses The care provider belongs to the same community and is easily accessible, this induces a willingness to get the treatment Timely treatment is almost pain free and encourages the young and old to seek it, besides it reduces further deterioration of dental problems Costs for basic treatment are minimal and therefore affordable. Knowledge Practioners as Outreach Agents Simplicity of technique arouses curiosity among children who then become potential care-providers, confirming the sustainability loop from the human resource point of view. As of now about 20 women dental health workers across 10 sub-centres cater to a population of 25,000 individuals of varying ages and at various stages of tooth problems. Complex cases are attended to by dental surgeons at the main Centre. This is in stark contrast to the picture that one finds in India where some 700 million people have poor or no access to dental care and most of this population resides in the country’s rural areas. Good dental care is expensive, besides a dentist can hardly make a living as a dentist in rural areas. Health needs to be seen as Wealth. This can become possible when explicit knowledge is translated into strategy and action, creating value that leverages tacit knowledge especially when stakeholders consciously choose to be collaborative, as is the case with this programme. Women, intrinsically, are holistic care-providers. By training them as dental health workers their intrinsic nature finds a happy expression making them dynamic, confident and innovative while delivering health care. Their status as professional heath care workers raises their self-esteem in the family, their community and among local governance bodies. They are accepted for what they are; sparkling toothy smiles are the new measure of success! Smaller but conscious organizations like self-help groups and entrepreneurs need to base their sustainability by managing knowledge and knowledge resources (in this case-women) even more, because they lack the market leverage and resources of their larger counterparts. They have to be more nimble, responsive than reactive, take timely and more “right” decisions and use appropriate communication strategies- for, their survival depends on it. “You are what you eat;” says Suriyagandhi, “if you cannot chew your food properly you will have poor digestion and therefore poor health. Poor health will affect your whole life and your family will suffer too!” The logic is quite simple. Futurist Portrait: Michio Kaku Dr. Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist, professor, futurist, best-selling author, and popularizer of science. He’s the co-founder of string field theory (a branch of string theory), and continues Einstein’s search to unite the four fundamental forces of nature into one unified theory. He has appeared on television (Discovery, BBC, ABC, Science Channel, and CNN to name a few), written for popular science publications like Discover, Wired, and New Scientist, been featured in documentaries like Me & Isaac Newton, and hosted many of his own including BBC’s recent series on Time. Theoretical Physicist – Dr. Michio Kaku is the co-creator of string field theory, a branch of string theory. He received a B.S. (summa cum laude) from Harvard University in 1968 where he came first in his physics class. He went on to the Berkeley Radiation Laboratory at the University of California, Berkeley and received a Ph.D. in 1972. In 1973, he held a lectureship at Princeton University. Michio continues Einstein’s search for a “Theory of Everything,” seeking to unify the four fundamental forces of the universe – the strong force, the weak force, gravity and electromagnetism. He is the author of several scholarly, Ph.D. level textbooks and has had more than 70 articles published in physics journals, covering topics such as superstring theory, supergravity, supersymmetry, and hadronic physics. Professor of Physics – He holds the Henry Semat Chair and Professorship in theoretical physics at the City College of New York, where he has taught for over 25 years. He has also been a visiting professor at the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, as well as New York University (NYU). Kaku believes that the very future of the human race is on the line. “We’re at a precipice; we are experiencing the birth pangs of a ‘Type 1 Civilisation’. And there’s no guarantee we’ll make it.”Kaku defines a Type 1 civilization as one that is truly a planetary society, who has mastered all forms of terrestrial energy. Their energy output is much greater than ours. “Black holes distort this fabric of space-time maximally, and you can show that black holes can be time machines,” Kaku said. “If you go through a black hole, in principle, you can go to another point in space-time, just like [the fictional] Alice’s looking-glass.”“We want to push the laws of physics until they break,” explained Kaku. “Because that’s where you make new discoveries, by looking at where the old theory breaks down.” “Some people think, ‘Well, maybe a backyard inventor may invent a time machine,’ ” said Kaku. “I don’t think so – I don’t think a backyard inventor’s going to find a time machine anytime soon.” “I’d actually prefer to go to the future. You know, nature gives you a finite life span, but all the good stuff – antimatter drives and parallel universes – takes place beyond your lifetime. So, I want to see beyond my years.” Agenda Enjoy the summer!
The Future Now Show October 2016 Music, AI, the future of Multimedia featuring Phyllis Josefine aka DADA, future multimedia artist, musician, Germany Zak Field, CEO of BodAi, UK The Future Now ShowCredits Phyllis Josefine aka DADA, future multimedia artist, musician, GermanyandZak Field, CEO of BodAi, UK Intro voiceJack Gallagher, Repetitor/Coach at de Stilte, theNetherlands
The Future Now Show December 2016 Hardy comments KeywordsTrans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) / Asian Pacific trading space / US Dollar as a world currency /Donald Trump / Petrodollar / Energy / Electric cars Hardy F Schloer reflects on the impact that president-elect Trump’s antipathy towards the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could have for the Asian-Pacific trading space, and considers the future prospects of the US dollar as a world reserve currency. Central to the latter is the historical connection with oil (as in the petrodollar) and the inevitable loss of primacy that oil faces as an energy source with the rise of electric cars and alternative (non-fossil) sources of energy to power them. – Paul Holister The Future Now ShowCredits Hardy F. Schloer, CEO, Schloer Consulting Group Intro voiceJack Gallagher, Repetitor/Coach at de Stilte, theNetherlands
The Future Now Show February 2016 Special2016 & 2017achievements, challenges & strategies. May you live in interesting times, goes the old Chinese curse. So let’s pause to consider the changes 2016 brought and what 2017 portends. As AIs flex their mental muscles by beating our best gamers, answer questions spoken into our phones and square up to drive our cars, the machines around us proliferate. From the tiny chattering chips in our homes and offices to drones large and small, benign and deadly. They’re here to help us, but they’re taking our jobs. They can face danger in our place, but they can be danger too. How will this all pan out – are humans going to deal with this sensibly, given that we react to the consequences of increasing inequality and strife by blaming the victims and voting for billionaires? Cancer may finally be on the retreat and 3D-printed replacement organs are on the horizon yet reckless use of antibiotics threatens incurable superbug infections and research into ageing has produced the bizarre phenomenon of billionaires looking to find youth, vampire-like, by transfusing the blood (plasma) of young people. Genetic engineering is becoming a precise technology (CRISPR), bringing great promise but maybe great dangers (bioterrorism). Climate change looks increasingly apocalyptic, but the president of the most powerful country on the planet thinks it is a hoax. Yet solar and wind power promise to start to displace fossil fuels on economics alone, electric cars look set to accelerate the transition, and these technologies could at the same time bring electricity (and the internet and all that entails) to the poorest on the planet for the first time. Interesting times indeed. The Future Now Show has invited some people with a particular stake in the future to share their thoughts. – Paul Holister The Future Now ShowCredits Simon Jones, Professor DSc FIET CEng SMIEEE, Pro-Vice-Chancellor of Cranfield University at Shrivenham, UKAnnegien Blokpoel, Founder & CEO, PerspeXo, the NetherlandsHuib Wursten, Senior Cunsultant, Itim International, the Netherlands Paul Holister, Editor, Summary Text