Author: admin

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, June 2008, Issue 107

Content Technology and Rural Development, a case in perspective, “Computers on Wheels”Next EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FuturePakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030Recommended BookAn Indispensable Guide to Equity Investment in IndiaFuturist Portrait: James CantonAgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. India faces challenge in all these three fronts. It may appear we have plenty of water but the extreme nature of spread and distribution make it uneven in terms of availability and accessibility. In addition, more than 70% of al health related issues in India are water borne. Hence delivery of right quantity of right type of water is the utmost priority in any developmental activity. Due to pressure on land and natural resources, the external environment faces rather various degree of endanger related to air, water and soil. Urbanisation is growing fast and development of civic facility needs equally a fast action. While the general feeling of sustainability of development keeping in mind the totality of environment has been a governmental and social policy, there are several instances of mismatch leading to conflict – social, legal as well as political. The latest thinking on development is not just sustainability but that aspects and approach that will leave a very low carbon footprint. Responsible industrial investment will need to recognize this aspect while taking decisions so that only what is locally sustainable in the long run at the same time leave negligible carbon foot print should be attempted. While globalization has brought the world closer almost like borderless Western Europe this has also thrown open responsibility on each one to keep the environment clean for future generations as well. To quote Mahatma Gandhi, we have enough for everyone’s needs but not for everybody’s greed!– V. Subramanian, Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India, Senior central government advisor on technology development and assessment Professor V. Subramanian is a speaker at our next Season Event about Taste of Diversity – the future of INDIAThursday, July 3, 2008 Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Technology and Rural Development, a case in perspective, Arnab B. Chowdhury is founder and CEO of Ninad ~ an e-Learning consulting firm centered on Integrality. Clad in a traditional south Indian cotton sari, 48 year old Rajeswari Rao Pingali looks hardly the regular perseverant social development practitioner, who had taken on herself to make a difference in the villages of the Mahbubnagar District in the state of Andhra Pradesh, India. The challenges at hand are enormous. All rural areas in India face problems; whether they are specific challenges like disasters or more generic in nature like a lack of information and knowledge on global developments and their impact on their daily lives. Initially, Rajeswari started her not-for-profit organisation “Villages in Development and Learning Foundation” (ViDAL, www.vidal.org.in) in 2004 to look at the issues of knowledge and plug in information deficiencies for arresting farmer suicides, having worked in suicide prevention for over a decade by then. However, as the years passed by, her sense of rural needs changed and now she thinks the problem of rural development and self-reliance is in the inadequate number of people who have development as their personal goal at the village level. She has keen interest in latest technologies and gadgets and knows these are necessary for hastening the pace of development. At a personal level her engagement with the people is much deeper and not centred around any specific need especially where she is engaged in streamlining the thought process of people in the village communities. Currently ViDAL is working with technology and youth who are keen on developing themselves as well as their communities. The focus is to enhance their learning ability, critical capacity and help them become the torchbearers of positive change. This way Rajeswari believes we can avoid “intrusion”. In her words, “no matter what, we are alien and don’t belong in the villages. Their culture, traditions and above all the social norms are so different from ours. They accept us because they are generous, that does not automatically make us one of them”. Incidentally, COW began as an ICT project that Rajeswari found in Stanford Reuters Digital Vision Program, Stanford University, as an inaugural fellow. COW’s unique position is in its last-mile-reach-out with electronic and telecommunication ability that is also applicable in isolated rural and tribal habitations. This is achieved with the unique integration of software and hardware at its rugged best in the form of a hybrid motorbike. It has a platform fitted at the rear of the motorbike on which is mounted a weather and shock-proof, solar powered equipment case which carries and recharges a laptop, a printer, a wireless phone and a camera. It also has a portable tent for impromptu meetings in open fields. In addition, the laptop has an Open Source-based software suite that offers varied information depending on the needs of people in the villages (like hygiene and healthcare, agricultural credit, weather, rainfall, pest control, soil testing, availability of seeds at subsidised prices, and crop prices in local markets etc.). Its ‘drivers’ are the Information Providers (IPs) – village youth who are carefully selected to be service entrepreneurs. The project started in Andhra Pradesh, a southern state and moved to Uttar Pradesh, a northern state in the country, with unique lessons to offer from a private sector perspective and from developmental perspectives. COW won the World Bank Development Market Place award for the year 2003, was a finalist for Stockholm Challenge Global Award for the year 2006 and for Computerworld honors for the year 2002. Currently COW functions as a platform to engage village folk with academia and technologists for ideating appropriate innovations for rural development. ViDAL aims to be a “centre of excellence” that has knowledge and ability to guide rural development for the bottom 15% people on the economic ladder. In this role ViDAL is going to be a place of innovation, incubation and mainstreaming of ideas, technologies and innovative approaches. Rajeswari’s small effort found feet with several other like-minded people who collaborate with her, virtually as well as in person, at the field level, which is opening up new dimensions in addressing immediate and urgent as well as long-term issues for rural development. Impact in Numbers Following are the details of services provided in a one year period by two COW information providers. The total number of people who approached COW was about 4727 in one year, out of which about 2466 used COW services and about 1669 paid for the services. Economic: Wage dispersal information about 2300 daily labourers was collected from 21 villages, which indicated discrepancies in the dispersals and led to changes in the processes by the government department. Photographic services were accessed for agriculture-related needs Governmental: Cropping information about 1589 land records is being compiled to assess the cropping pattern in the region to divert farmers from cultivating water-intensive crops. Government entitlements were accessed by 56 poor households on a single day after submitting their credentials through COW. Photographic services were accessed for governance related requirements (for making civilian photo identity cards by the departments) Health: Approximately 440 people accessed remote health services for myalgia, knee pains, skin problems and reproductive health problems in 7 villages. HIV Aids preventing audiovisual shows were effectively shown to specific target groups in 11 tribal habitations including women without causing embarrassment by the culturally sensitive information provider. In livestock, about 760 sheep were saved out of a total 9000 sheep that were there in about 7 villages. Photographic services were accessed for health-related needs Education: In a span of 5 months close to 800 children accessed computer-aided education while 300 children paid a nominal amount for the service in village schools. 5 young adults learned computer literacy from the information providers from 2 villages. Photographic services were accessed a large number of times for family functions. 75 students accessed results of secondary grade exams via Internet from 7 villages. Socio-cultural: Photographs were taken during 21 marriages by the information provider in a span of two months during the marriage season. Next Event Taste of Diversity – the future of INDIAThursday, July 3, 2008Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15, Buffet: 21:15-23:30 Tickets also include Indian dishes and some drinks!Where: Cultuurhuis Diamantslijperij, Tolstraat 129, 1074 VJ Amsterdamformer Royal Asscher Diamond Factory. The speakers and topics are:Ram L. Lakhina, Founder and Executive President of the Netherlands India Chamber of Commerce and Trade (NICCT)India’s Unity in Diversity: Relevance for The NetherlandsRajindre Tewari, Managing Director, Cordares Capital (APG Group)Can the Indian Elephant Dance? Highlights and Opportunities of the Indian Economy V. Subramanian, Professor, School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, IndiaSenior central government advisor on technology development and assessmentWater, Environment, Technology and Development Moderated by Hedda Pahlson-Moller, Managing Director, Evalueserve Benelux and Omnisource InternationalSupported by Qualit Datamatics andEmbassy of India, Global Food Funatics, The Netherlands-India Chamber of Commerce and Trade (NICCT), Evalueserve, Sichuan Foods, Innergy Creations, Kadarka and India Tourism Amsterdam Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog June 9 : Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030May 24: Beyond InnovationMay 24: What future coal?April 9: The Fall of the US Empire News about the Future UV sun protection swimwear for boys and girls Offered for the first time this summer, madeforsundays is a boutique Australian brand of fashionable, high quality UV sun protection swimwear for boys and girls up to the age of 4 years. Inspired by motherhood, our outdoor lifestyle and the need to protect young children’s delicate skin from the harsh Australian sun, madeforsundays has created a collection of rash shirts, shorts and reversible bucket hats that provide high quality protection, design and comfort in bold hibiscus prints and bright coordinated colours. Underwater communication: Robofish In the world of underwater robots, this is a team of pioneers. While most ocean robots require periodic communication with scientist or satellite intermediaries to share information, these can work cooperatively communicating only with each other. But while other research groups have developed fishlike robots, what’s novel with this system is that the robotic fish can communicate wirelessly underwater. Kristi Morgansen, a UW assistant professor of aeronautics and astronautics, looked to natural systems for inspiration. The engineers worked with collaborator Julia Parrish, an associate professor in the UW’s School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, to record patterns of fish schools’ behavior.“In schooling and herding animals, you can get much more efficient maneuvers and smoother behaviors than what we can do in engineering right now,” Morgansen explained. “The idea of these experiments [with schools of live fish] is to ask, ‘How are they doing it?’ and see if we can come up with some ideas.” Westergasfabriek Amsterdam If you’re looking for an adventurous place in Amsterdam, then the Westergasfabriek Culture Park is worth a visit. Art and culture form the basis of this down-to-earth industrial complex close to the centre of Amsterdam. The new energy is tangible for everyone who visits for work, play, exercise, entertainment or events. Just about anything goes in these historic buildings; from a photo shoot to major audience events, from weddings to exclusive product presentations. The venues available for a temporary hire are: the magnificent circular Gasometer (2500 m2), the Transformer House with its sacred mood (700 m2), the impressive Purification Hall (1200 m2), the intimate Machine Building with chapel (340 m2) and the small Eastern Meter House (60 m2), furnished as a meeting room. The outdoor spaces such as the quayside, the larger meadow or the gardens of the park can also be used for events. The Westergasfabriek is freely accessible all day. From early in the morning, there’s fresh bread and fine coffee at the Baker’s Shop (open every day) and the Espresso Factory (open tue – sun). There are various galleries and shops, Pacific Parc cafe/restaurant/dancing (open everyday) and the food-design studio Proef (open: fri-sun). The Ketelhuis Cinema (open everyday) shows the latest films and in the Flex Bar (open thu – sun) you can dance late in the night. Opening soon: The WestergasTerras for drinks, dinner, parties & salsa near the wetlands. The modern park surrounding the site offers plenty of space, peace and nature; for a picknick, to throw a frisby or a pleasant walk. You are most welcome. Westergasfabriek / Pazzanistraat 41 / 1041 DB Amsterdam /T: + 31 (0) 20 5860710 / F: + 31 (0) 20 6813062 /E info@westergasfabriek.nl I www.westergasfabriek.com Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030 By Shaukat Hameed Khan, Project Director, Vision 2030, Fellow, Pakistani Academy of Sciences Introduction A nation must know where it wants to go and what its vision for itself might be, only then can it prepare strategies and policies to reach there. The effort and set of rules needed to achieve such a vision would therefore depend strongly upon the height of one’s gaze. Pakistan, too, has to spell out a vision for itself, and then define its preferred future in an increasingly uncertain world. The Medium Term Development Framework, 2005-10 (MTDF) emphatically states that Pakistan must become a developed, industrialized, just and prosperous nation within one generation. It must do so in a manner that sustains its development paradigm of a good quality of life and opportunity for all its citizens to reach their true potential. The MTDF also states, that in spite of resource constraints, Pakistan can reach the development levels which it needs and deserves, by deploying knowledge inputs and human capital. This is our Vision for Pakistan in the year 2030. The time until 2030 represents the period of one generation, during which we have not only to place Pakistan firmly along proper alignments, but actually cross some critical milestones. Within these operating parameters, the Vision 2030 exercise examines future possibilities and subsequent strategic directions in order to manage and take advantage of ongoing global and societal transformations, and even to create new opportunities. This is the basic theme of Vision 2030. Vision 2030 is ultimately about changing the mindset of a people so that the preferred future can be grasped from among the several futures that will be possible. It is a journey of exploration, which attempts to convert potential and dreams into reality. Given the nature, diversity and enormity of the challenges, this Vision Document outlines only the beginning of a comprehensive analytical process to determine the appropriate responses in order to provide authority, legitimacy and credibility to this foresight exercise. The year 2030 is important for Pakistan in several respects. It is the year when a child entering the educational stream today will have become an important productive member of the society. It is the period when most analysts predict the beginning of an irreversible decline in oil production, which will allow only a few years for humanity to find alternative and sustainable sources of energy. It is the year when most of mankind is likely to be severely stressed between water scarcity and melting glaciers and polar caps. It is also the year when all demographic trends suggest that we in Pakistan too will start ageing as a society – with all the social and economic consequences of a fragmented family unit. We will face the additional danger, however, that unlike the countries of the richer West, we could start aging before we have grown rich as a nation. Where Pakistan can and should, be placed in the middle of such major transformations is the focus of Vision 2030. In order to manage these global forces of change to Pakistan’s advantage, we must first understand their form and intensity, and then complement this knowledge with a vision for ourselves; the stance chosen, however, must be our own. Growing at a rate of around 7-8 percent per annum Pakistan expects to join the ranks of middle-income countries, with a GDP of around USD 12,000 – 13,000 (in current PPP terms) by 2030. This high growth rate would be sustained through developing its human resources, and by developing the necessary physical and technological infrastructure. The growth trajectory will gain momentum by the latent capacities of a sizable middle class emerging in the development process. Besides sustaining high growth rates, benefits of growth are planned to be equitably distributed, and poverty largely eliminated, through pro-poor policies. Predicting where a nation might be a generation hence is an uncertain exercise. A vision, however, represents more than mere predictive numbers and statistics. It spells out the dreams, hopes, and aspirations of a nation and the desire to lead a better and fuller life. It is completed when our hopes for well-being for our own selves are realised at the same time as the world is freed from conflict, disease and hunger. The Vision 2030 document has been prepared, after a consultative process spread over two years with some of our best minds and hearts in the country. The Consensus The future is essentially unpredictable, with a range of possible futures for Pakistan, influenced by internal and external factors and path-breaking events or innovations. The future is, however, predictable to the extent that economic globalisation and dispersion of information and technology will have occurred to such a massive extent, that it will change the scale and nature of human enterprise. Based on changes that have already taken place in recent decades, we can safely assume that by 2030, the way we live, work and educate ourselves, or compete and trade, and the manner in which we grow old and become sick, would have been completely transformed. In spite of often divergent and always passionate views and opinions, there is a remarkable consensus among all national stakeholders about the possible state of affairs for Pakistan. Everyone agrees the country is neither too small nor too poor to be irrelevant, nor is its population too large to pull it down. It has, however, reached a certain ‘tipping point’, when the right choices and their intelligent calibration can help Pakistan attain its historical promise, while the wrong choices will revert it to a state of ‘muddling through’ at best. Alternatively, it could benchmark itself against the best of the world with felicity and confidence and attain its true potential. This transformation therefore offers vast opportunities as well as challenges for Pakistan. All strategies and action matrices to be drawn up for Pakistan reaching the desired state under the Vision 2030 must be subservient to the overarching objective of becoming a vibrant knowledge economy. The economics of knowledge must therefore underpin policies for growth. Since many other nations are also embarking on the path of either enhancing their existing knowledge drivers or becoming similar knowledge driven societies, Vision 2030 is as much about Pakistan and Pakistanis competing with other nations, as it is about internal transformation. Vision 2030 is all about managing such a transition. It calls for a quest for excellence, so that Pakistan can redefine and transform its institutions and structures of the state, as well as national policies, strategic priorities and long-term benchmarks, within the overarching Vision for Pakistan in 2030. There is consensus on the following: Build a nation whose development is measured not through mere statistics of economic growth but by the quality of life of all its people, especially the vulnerable and dispossessed, who must be placed at the centre of national development. Evolve into a mature, tolerant, and democratic society, which is developed economically and socially, and is at peace with itself and with the rest of the world, within a framework of assured sovereignty and security. Establish a social, economic and political system based on rule of law which alone will assure justice and equity. It will be reflected in a shared destiny and prosperity, brought about by a series of ‘public goods’, and participation and equal opportunities for all, irrespective of geographical and ethnic origin, creed, gender, or age. Sustain an average growth of at least 6 -7 per cent until 2030 to meet the development goals. Without high growth, there will be no poverty reduction, or improvement in the quality of life. Make employment and employability the central theme in economic and social policies. This requires major social reforms to draw in women, since labour markets are always socially embedded. Re-assume greater responsibility for the delivery and provision of certain basic services and facilities of acceptably high quality to all citizens. These would cover 10 years of schooling, healthcare, food, water, shelter, and energy, apart from security under law. Re-design the structures of state and instruments of government, so that these are responsive to an educated and demanding population in terms of participation, delivery of services, and good governance. Pakistan has reached the ‘tipping point’ which stipulates that we cannot afford any longer not to have good institutions. Attain rapid and sustainable growth, through the use of knowledge and technology inputs, to create opportunities for increased productivity and competitiveness, within the constraints imposed by depleting resources. Become an intelligent and efficient exploiter of globalisation through enhanced competitiveness, whether it relates to commerce, manufacturing, or services, or increased diversity and technology content. A necessary corollary is the emergence of “Brand Pakistan”, with several large conglomerates becoming global players, and many more regional hubs and centres established in Pakistan. Generate knowledge and manage it in all its forms. This would focus on science and technology because science and technology not only makes change possible, but also provides tools for managing this transition; there must be equal focus on the social sciences, the humanities, and the arts, which provide the human face to science and technology . Prepare for the demographic transition towards an increasingly aging population by ensuring that its dividends should be exploited, and the threat of a low skills population is avoided. Manage the current and looming intense competition for access and ownership of depleting resources and energy, which will increase Pakistan’s vulnerabilities in its transition towards a high level of sustained growth over the long term. Prepare for climate changes, and its accompanying uncertainties. Minimise wastage as an important tool for preserving inter-generational equity while exploiting current resources. Prepare for and manage the very predictable state of future societies which will be reflected in the growth of large cities, urban concentrations and considerable internal and intra-national migrations. These will have dynamics and imperatives of their own in all spheres of human activities. If this transition is brought about successfully, we can aspire to become an influential nation of the 21st century. It will be a nation that has achieved competence in technology, and a nation which draws upon its rich past to become modern, developed, just and affluent, while remaining uniquely Pakistani in character. Pakistan in 2030In 2030, Pakistan will be the world’s fifth most populous country with an estimated 230 to 260 million people. It will emerge as a major economic power, and will be ranked among the top twenty countries on the basis of a 7-8 percent sustained growth. Its GDP is expected to be $1000 billion, with per capita incomes of around USD 13,000 in current PPP terms. Pakistanis will enjoy a high quality of life in both rural and urban areas. Absolute poverty will be largely eliminated, and social protection will be available to every citizen. Its people in the under-25 age group will have an average of 10 years of education, while tertiary enrolments will grow to 20 percent of the 17-23 years age cohort.Pakistan will be transformed into a knowledge-based economy, harnessing technology to its advantage. The innovation, productivity, and enterprise of its people, in the context of appropriate economic and social environment, will make Pakistan a major regional hub for industry, education, services and the arts. Pakistan will have taken its first steps in space, having earlier launched its own communication and resource mapping satellites, and manned space modules.Pakistan will be an active player in regional and international cooperation, with a competitive enabling environment for innovation and investment.Pakistan will be a just and prosperous society,at peace with itself and the rest of the world. Read the Executive Summary click here Recommended Book The Rise of India: Its Transformation from Poverty to Prosperityby Niranjan Rajadhyaksha (Author) The Risk of India: Its Transformation from Poverty to Prosperity is an extremely interesting read. The book speaks not only to the mind and intellect but also to the heart as it clearly demonstrates that economic development is above all a question of people. It also shows that the Indian society, and particularly its youth, is much more open to changes than its political and bureaucratic class, and would welcome a third wave of reforms that would help the poor to benefit from economic progress. I stronglyrecommend this book. It offers a very unique and rich description of today’s India from the author’s perspective and many well chosen anecdotes. – Colette Mathur, Director World Economic ForumThis fascinating work weaves together a set of seemingly diverse events into an intricate tapestry capturing the essence and purpose of emerging India. It is also an inspiration to people in “Challenged” economies that the power of honest entrepreneurship can bring about a greater transformation than the best intentions of any government. Well-researched and well-written, this book is a good guide for developing countries to leverage the potential of people and its inherent strengths. It also brings out the challenge for India that more reforms are necessary, not less. – Nandan M Nilekani, CEO & Managing Director Infosys Technologies LimitedThe Rise of India is an insightful and engaging story of India before and after the 1991 reforms. There are many academic tomes on India’s reforms but none is as comprehensive, lucid, and earthy. Practicing “soft hearts, hard heads” Philosophy with anecdotes and personal experiences, the author builds a compelling case for further liberalization and reforms. This book is a must read for all policy makers, students of economics, and activists of all stripes. read, understand, and become part of the revolution-a continued rise of India! – Parth J. Shah, President, Centre for Civil Society An Indispensable Guide to Equity Investment in India Over the past several years, investors have earned massive profits in the Indian market. However, beyond the tech-heavy activity that has driven much of these profits, there are many new and interesting areas that private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms are now aggressively looking to take advantage of. The Indian market is certainly unique. Therefore, investment players, who are new to India, are required to have an in-depth understanding of this market and make some behavioural adjustments in order to maximise their returns. In addition to the required capital, proper research in a challenging market, subtle and savvy managerial skills and a healthy dose of patience must also be invested to ensure success. In this article, Evalueserve’s analysis shows that those who manage the fundamentals and persevere stand to make significant gains in the years ahead. And, their impact will be felt not only in India, but also on the global economy. IntroductionRecent research conducted by the global research and analytics firm, Evalueserve, shows that if current trends continue, India is expected to receive USD 13.5 billion in PE funding during 2007, thereby becoming one of the top 7 PE investment destinations in the world. Furthermore, this funding could rise to almost USD 20 billion in 2010. Our research also shows that there are over 366 PE firms currently operating in India and another 69 have raised – or are in the process of raising – funds and are planning to start their operations soon.1 In total, these PE firms seem to have amassed USD 48 billion earmarked for investment in India between July 2007 and December 2010. Several firms that we talked to also mentioned that they would be willing to invest even more if they saw good investment opportunities. This situation stands in stark contrast to 1996, when Indian companies received only a total of USD 20 million. Indeed, if Indian companies do receive USD 20 billion in funding during 2010, this would represent a stunning 1,000-fold increase over a period of only 14 years. However, the future is hard – if not impossible – to predict because private equity investments are based on a complex combination of macroeconomic, microeconomic and financial policy-related factors that always affect the rational and emotional sentiments of the investor community. Indeed, a slow-down in the growth of the Indian economy and a tightening of liquidity around the world are only two of the many potential changes that could lead to substantially lower PE investment in India than those forecasted above. From a demand-side perspective, assuming a real annual GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth of 8%, an annual inflation of 5% and a constant exchange rate of 40 Indian Rupees to one US Dollar2, our analysis shows that the Indian economy will grow in nominal terms from approximately USD 1,030 billion in 2007 to approximately USD 5,040 billion in 2020. Therefore, it can easily absorb USD 60 billion between 2007 and 2010, and as much as USD 490 billion between 2007 and 2020. However, for such investment to be useful and wealth creating, it has to be invested in diverse sectors and not be limited only to Information Technology (IT) and IT Enabled Services (ITES) sectors. Note:This article is largely focussed on private equity investment, i.e., investments in companies already generating revenue and perhaps profit. A related article dated 21 August 21 2006, and titled, ¨DIs the Indian VC Market Getting Overheated?¡¬ can be downloaded from www.evalueserve.com and another article titled, ¨DInvestments by Hedge Funds and Related Institutions in India¡¬ is scheduled to be published in December 2007. […] India is neither the United States nor ChinaAlthough it is fashionable these days to compare India and China, actually the two countries are quite different. A lot of progress in China has been possible due to the government, whereas in India, it is despite the government. For example, the communist government in China can easily plan projects in a very structured and systematic manner without worrying about the courts or public opinion, whereas most projects in India get delayed because of Indian courts and a strong public opinion. Similarly, although India and the US share democracy as one of their fundamental tenets, India is a poor country with a severely underdeveloped infrastructure, whereas the US is one of the wealthiest countries with a very well-developed infrastructure. Because of these reasons, it behoves VC and PE firms to consider investing in Indian companies ¢win their own right¡ü rather than pursuing the following strategy: ¢wif it has worked in the US or China, it will work in India too.¡ü Given below are examples of three companies that are likely to cater only to countries such as India: Because of the unreliable supply of electricity throughout India and the Indian government clamping down on the use of diesel generators in many large- and medium-size cities (due to immense pollution), a set of universal power supplies called “inverters” have already become quite popular and are expected to become more so during the next few years. According to Evalueserve, the market size of these inverters (and the associated batteries) is expected to grow from approximately USD 1.2 billion in 2007 to USD 3 billion in 2010. Therefore, it is quite likely that by 2010, there would be at least 2 or 3 companies with combined annual revenue of USD 1 billion and these companies are likely to have unique Intellectual Property with respect to products, processes and sales networks. Furthermore, given their unique Intellectual Property, these companies are also likely to export to other countries in Africa and South East Asia. Because of poverty, low education and the tropical climate, diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue (which are spread by mosquitoes), are quite common in India (and also in parts of Africa and South East Asia). As a result, the market size of mosquito repellents in India was already USD 400 million in 2006 and is likely to grow to USD 1 billion by 2010. Again, it is quite likely that at least one company would emerge with USD 250 million or more in revenue and will begin exporting in a big way to other regions in Africa and South East Asia. Castrol India produces different kinds of engine oils and lubricants in India (e.g., those for motorcycles, two-wheeler scooters, cars, trucks, tractors and pumps). The company is likely to have revenues of USD 500 million in 2007. Since the requirements of consumers in large cities are quite different from those in villages, Castrol India has designed unique products for each market segment, e.g., engine oil pouches for 10 cents each that can be sold in villages and small towns. One of its unique features is its distribution network that consists of almost 100,000 outlets throughout India. According to Evalueserve¡¦s estimates, there are at least 20 companies in a variety of sectors that could become as big as Castrol India, if they could receive proper advice and operational consulting, especially with respect to building a similar distribution network. […] Qualit DatamaticsQD is a private owned organisation dedicated to technology transfer, in various countries where inbalances in development between urban and rural areas exist. Such imbalances hamper the national development due to the wastage of human and natural resources. By the acceptance and use of innovative technologies, this situation may be redressed. This assumption is based on the observation that human behavior changes, when new technologies are accepted and absorbed. In other words: once accepted, innovative technologies can cause social innovation.It is QD’s goal to select technologies which are innovative, attractive, maintenance free, modularized (with local construction components), solving immediate problems, and that can be operated in a decentralized way (= effective management).The technology sectors QD has choosen are water, biogas, wind energy systems, dairy, light, automotive and innovative decision support systems on urban planning for rural and urban areas.www.jagbandhan.com Futurist Portrait: James Canton James Canton, Futurist, Author and Keynote Presenter, Institute for Global Futures, a San Francisco based think tank that forecasts innovations and trends. IGF provides keynote presentations, futures research services, and strategy consulting to the Fortune 1000, associations and governments. For over 30 years, James Canton has been insightfully predicting the key trends that have shaped our world. He is a leading authority on future trends in innovation. He is the author of The Extreme Future: The Top Trends That Will Reshape the World in the 21st Century, Dutton 2006, and Technofutures: How Leading-Edge Innovations WillTransform Business in the 21st Century, Next Millennium Press, 2004. Dr. Canton is CEO and Chairman of the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank he founded in 1990 that advises business and government on future trends. He advises the Global Fortune 1000 on trends in innovation, financial services, health care, population, life sciences, energy, security, workforce, climate change and globalization. From a broad range of industries, clients include: IBM, BP, Intel, Philips, General Electric, Hewlett Packard, Boeing, FedEx, and Proctor & Gamble. He is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Research in Innovation at the Kellogg School of Management and serves on Motorola’s Visionary Advisory Board. He has advised three White House Administrations, the National Science Foundation and MIT’s MediaLab, Europe. Recognized as “one of the top presenters in the 21st century” by Successful Meetings Magazine, Dr. Canton is a highly sought-after keynote presenter. . A frequent guest of the media, Dr. Canton is a commentator on CNN. He was named “the Digital Guru” by CNN and “Dr. Future” by Yahoo. Dr. Canton’s media coverage has included CNBC, Fox, PBS, ABC, Fortune, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg Report, The New York Times, US News and World Report, CEO, CIO and CFO Magazines. His Global Futurist blog is followed by a world-wide audience. Part 1 Agenda The next Season Event is on Thursday, July 3Taste of Diversity – the future of INDIARegistration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15, Buffet: 21:15-23:30Tickets also include Indian dishes and some drinks!Location: Cultuurhuis Diamantslijperij, Tolstraat 129, 1074 VJ Amsterdamformer Royal Asscher Diamond Factory Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join ouronline platform …

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, August 2008, Issue 108

Content User-generated content and weblogs – a new challengeNext EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureStudio Monte RosaRecommended Book‘Major discovery’ from MITFuturist Portrait: Jane McGonigalAgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. Today is the Opening Day of the Olympic Games in Beijing. Some thoughts by Confucius:“Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated.”“A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step.”“He who will not economize will have to agonize.”“Success has many fathers, failure is an orphan.”“It does not matter how slowly you go so long as you do not stop.” Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief User-generated content and weblogs – a new challenge By EU – Information Society As weblogs represent an important new contribution to media pluralism, there is a need to clarify their status, and to create legal safeguards for use in the event of lawsuits as well as to establish a right to reply, says a recent own initiative report drafted by Estonian Socialist Marianne Mikko. Own initiative reports are drafted by individual MEPs and are not proposals for EU laws. The report was later adopted by Parliament’s Culture Committee This article has been corrected to reflect amendments by Parliament’s Culture Committee, which affected some of the positions in the draft report that we had previously reported. The report – adopted by MEPs on the Culture Committee on 3 June – also says there is “considerable risk” that the private media’s pursuit of profit could compromise its ability to act as a watchdog for democracy. It goes on to suggest “implies a need to establish legal safeguards providing for the assignment of liability in the event of lawsuits, and establishing the right to reply”. “The cases of unrestricted ownership concentration or of scarce content pluralism in the media are endangering cultural diversity and freedom of expression not only within national markets but also at European level. We need therefore strong European commitment to overcome those challenges especially in view of the new technologies and services in the media sector”, said Committee chair Greek Socialist Katarina Batzeli (PES). Weblogs and other new on-line media pose new challenges, say MEPs. The growth of commercial media outlets for user-generated content, such as photos and videos, used without paying a fee, raises problems of ethics and privacy, and puts journalists and other media professionals under pressure, they say. The report “on concentration and pluralism in the media in the European Union” – drafted by Estonian Socialist Marianne Mikko – also warns against the concentration of the media in the hands of a few companies because the media is vital to safeguarding democracy. “The media remains a powerful tool, which should not be treated solely in economic terms,” she said. The report calls for social and legal guarantees to journalists and editors. It will be put to the vote in the full plenary in the future. Ms Mikko told us “the blogosphere has so far been a haven of good intentions and relatively honest dealing. However, with blogs becoming commonplace, less principled people will want to use them”. Asked if she considered bloggers to be “a threat”, she said “we do not see bloggers as a threat. They are in position, however, to considerably pollute cyberspace. We already have too much spam, misinformation and malicious intent in cyberspace”. She added, “I think the public is still very trusting towards blogs, it is still seen as sincere. And it should remain sincere. For that we need a quality mark, a disclosure of who is really writing and why. “ Belgian MEP Ivo Belet (who acted as an advisor on the report for the Industry committee) said “weblogs and user generated content contribute in a lively and fresh way to a colourful and many-sided media landscape. They should not be restrained”. The centre right EPP-ED member did concede however that some legal issues such as privacy and the right of reply need to be addressed. German Liberal Jorgo Chatzimarkakis acted as advisor for the Economic and Monetary committee. He told us that “bloggers cannot automatically be considered a threat, but imagine pressure groups, professional interests or any other groups using blogs to pass on their message. Blogs are powerful tools, they can represent an advance form of lobbyism, which in turn can be seen as a threat”. He said “any blogger representing or expressing more than their personal view should be affected by this report.” Next Event Organised by Final Cut Pro User Group Los Angeles Sunday, September 14, 2008Registration: 17:00-19:00Presentations: 19:00-22:00After Party: 22:00-01:00 This event is open to the public. Seating is first come first serve. Where: Westergasfabriek – Gashouder, Klönneplein 3, Amsterdam Event Management & Catering by SONARIS:Mediterranean food, beer, wine, champagne, non-alcoholic and tropical drinks. The event is supported byApple, Adobe, Blackmagicdesign, Thomson, the Westergasfabriek and many more .. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com September 10: EFMN correspondents’ day 2008: Weak Signals in ForesightSeptember 10: IBC FCPUG SuperMeetJune 9 : Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030May 24: Beyond InnovationMay 24:What future coal? News about the Future Cars that talk EU Commission earmarks single radio frequency for road safety and traffic management As part of its overall fight against road accidents and traffic jams, the Commission decided today to reserve, across Europe, part of the radio spectrum for smart vehicle communications systems (so called co-operative systems). They are based on wireless communication technology and allow cars to ‘talk’ to other cars and to the road infrastructure providers. They can, for example, warn other drivers of slippery roads or of a crash which just happened. Smart vehicle communication systems have the potential to make safer and ease the lives of Europe’s drivers: in 2006, more than 42,000 people died in road accidents in the European Union and more than 1.6 million were injured while every day there are some 7,500 km of traffic jams on the EU’s roads. The Commission Decision also intends to foster investment in smart vehicle communication systems by the automotive industry, at the same time spurring public funding in essential roadside infrastructure. Top Six Trends in Communications and Media Technologies, Applications and Services – Possible Implications The Top Six Trends report was developed by ACMA – Australian Communications and Media Authority – to provide a concise overview of technology, applications and services trends over the next five to 10 years. 1. An accelerating pace of change driven by overlapping developments in technology, and connections between people, databases and objects.2. Diversity in the development of physical infrastructure including broadband, digital broadcasting, smart radio systems, sensor networks, mesh networks, efficiency techniques in multimedia transmission, location sensing and context-aware technologies, intelligent transport systems and satellite services.3. Continuing spread of connectivity through the integration of information processing beyond the desktop into everyday objects and activities.4. Enhanced content and network management capabilities driven by developments in deep packet inspection and content filtering technologies, coupled with the need to improve e-security, identity management, intellectual property protection and energy efficiency.5. The emerging social web acting both as platform and database, enabling innovation and creativity by users and service providers.6. Continuing scientific and technological innovation, which in combination are driving advances in computing power, display technologies, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology. Westergasfabriek Amsterdam If you’re looking for an adventurous place in Amsterdam, then the Westergasfabriek Culture Park is worth a visit. Art and culture form the basis of this down-to-earth industrial complex close to the centre of Amsterdam. The new energy is tangible for everyone who visits for work, play, exercise, entertainment or events. Just about anything goes in these historic buildings; from a photo shoot to major audience events, from weddings to exclusive product presentations. The venues available for a temporary hire are: the magnificent circular Gasometer (2500 m2), the Transformer House with its sacred mood (700 m2), the impressive Purification Hall (1200 m2), the intimate Machine Building with chapel (340 m2) and the small Eastern Meter House (60 m2), furnished as a meeting room. The outdoor spaces such as the quayside, the larger meadow or the gardens of the park can also be used for events. The Westergasfabriek is freely accessible all day. From early in the morning, there’s fresh bread and fine coffee at the Baker’s Shop (open every day) and the Espresso Factory (open tue – sun). There are various galleries and shops, Pacific Parc cafe/restaurant/dancing (open everyday) and the food-design studio Proef (open: fri-sun). The Ketelhuis Cinema (open everyday) shows the latest films and in the Flex Bar (open thu – sun) you can dance late in the night. Opening soon: The WestergasTerras for drinks, dinner, parties & salsa near the wetlands. The modern park surrounding the site offers plenty of space, peace and nature; for a picknick, to throw a frisby or a pleasant walk. You are most welcome. Westergasfabriek / Pazzanistraat 41 / 1041 DB Amsterdam /T: + 31 (0) 20 5860710 / F: + 31 (0) 20 6813062 /E info@westergasfabriek.nl I www.westergasfabriek.com Studio Monte Rosa Studio Monte Rosa is a special mountain hut, which has been planned for the Swiss Alpine Club (SAC) by the Department of Architecture. The project covers from the conception to the final execution all the phases and technological blocks needed for the realization of this unique building. In fact, the new Studio Monte Rosa is in the middle of a natural reserve with extreme alpine conditions, yet energeticaly to 90% self-contained and self-sufficient (90% autarchy). n splendid isolation, on the edge of a glacier in pristine wilderness, the hut will be able to host 125 guests in the restaurant and hotel with very little environmental impact. The four floors will be realised in a wooden pre-fabricated structure. The realisation of bio-gas generation for human waste recycling is also being considered. Recommended Book Media & Development in Asia – A regional perspectiveBy Indrajit Banerjee; Madanmohan Rao This book brings together some of the most outstanding and novel papers on media and development presented at the 2004 AMIC Annual Conferences. It provides a wealth of fresh case studies as well as breaking new ground in highlighting emerging frontiers of media development discourse in Asia, comparing regional development along multiple dimensions and frameworks, and pointing the direction towards further media initiatives at a national level. The papers selected are grouped into three key themes: media and development; new narratives and political discourse; and media impacts and capacity building. The contributors to this book have highlighted not just an interesting range of media and development issues in Asia, but have also introduced a good variety of media research methods. These include quantitative assessments of media impacts in society, comparative and longitudinal frameworks for evaluating regional ICT competitiveness, structural analyses of political and activist communication systems, in-depth case studies of individual organisations, and broad-based surveys of stakeholders in ICT4D. ‘Major discovery’ from MIT ‘Major discovery’ from MIT primed to unleash solar revolution Scientists mimic essence of plants’ energy storage system By Anne Trafton, News Office In a revolutionary leap that could transform solar power from a marginal, boutique alternative into a mainstream energy source, MIT researchers have overcome a major barrier to large-scale solar power: storing energy for use when the sun doesn’t shine. Until now, solar power has been a daytime-only energy source, because storing extra solar energy for later use is prohibitively expensive and grossly inefficient. With today’s announcement, MIT researchers have hit upon a simple, inexpensive, highly efficient process for storing solar energy. Requiring nothing but abundant, non-toxic natural materials, this discovery could unlock the most potent, carbon-free energy source of all: the sun. “This is the nirvana of what we’ve been talking about for years,” said MIT’s Daniel Nocera, the Henry Dreyfus Professor of Energy at MIT and senior author of a paper describing the work in the July 31 issue of Science. “Solar power has always been a limited, far-off solution. Now we can seriously think about solar power as unlimited and soon.” Inspired by the photosynthesis performed by plants, Nocera and Matthew Kanan, a postdoctoral fellow in Nocera’s lab, have developed an unprecedented process that will allow the sun’s energy to be used to split water into hydrogen and oxygen gases. Later, the oxygen and hydrogen may be recombined inside a fuel cell, creating carbon-free electricity to power your house or your electric car, day or night. The key component in Nocera and Kanan’s new process is a new catalyst that produces oxygen gas from water; another catalyst produces valuable hydrogen gas. The new catalyst consists of cobalt metal, phosphate and an electrode, placed in water. When electricity — whether from a photovoltaic cell, a wind turbine or any other source — runs through the electrode, the cobalt and phosphate form a thin film on the electrode, and oxygen gas is produced. Combined with another catalyst, such as platinum, that can produce hydrogen gas from water, the system can duplicate the water splitting reaction that occurs during photosynthesis. The new catalyst works at room temperature, in neutral pH water, and it’s easy to set up, Nocera said. “That’s why I know this is going to work. It’s so easy to implement,” he said. Giant leap’ for clean energySunlight has the greatest potential of any power source to solve the world’s energy problems, said Nocera. In one hour, enough sunlight strikes the Earth to provide the entire planet’s energy needs for one year. James Barber, a leader in the study of photosynthesis who was not involved in this research, called the discovery by Nocera and Kanan a “giant leap” toward generating clean, carbon-free energy on a massive scale. “This is a major discovery with enormous implications for the future prosperity of humankind,” said Barber, the Ernst Chain Professor of Biochemistry at Imperial College London. “The importance of their discovery cannot be overstated since it opens up the door for developing new technologies for energy production thus reducing our dependence for fossil fuels and addressing the global climate change problem.” ‘Just the beginning’Currently available electrolyzers, which split water with electricity and are often used industrially, are not suited for artificial photosynthesis because they are very expensive and require a highly basic (non-benign) environment that has little to do with the conditions under which photosynthesis operates. More engineering work needs to be done to integrate the new scientific discovery into existing photovoltaic systems, but Nocera said he is confident that such systems will become a reality. “This is just the beginning,” said Nocera, principal investigator for the Solar Revolution Project funded by the Chesonis Family Foundation and co-director of the Eni-MIT Solar Frontiers Center. “The scientific community is really going to run with this.” Nocera hopes that within 10 years, homeowners will be able to power their homes in daylight through photovoltaic cells, while using excess solar energy to produce hydrogen and oxygen to power their own household fuel cell. Electricity-by-wire from a central source could be a thing of the past. The project is part of the MIT Energy Initiative, a program designed to help transform the global energy system to meet the needs of the future and to help build a bridge to that future by improving today’s energy systems. MITEI Director Ernest Moniz, Cecil and Ida Green Professor of Physics and Engineering Systems, noted that “this discovery in the Nocera lab demonstrates that moving up the transformation of our energy supply system to one based on renewables will depend heavily on frontier basic science.” The success of the Nocera lab shows the impact of a mixture of funding sources – governments, philanthropy, and industry. This project was funded by the National Science Foundation and by the Chesonis Family Foundation, which gave MIT $10 million this spring to launch the Solar Revolution Project, with a goal to make the large scale deployment of solar energy within 10 years. Sichuan FoodReguliersdwarsstraat 35, 1017BK Amsterdamtel. +31 (0)20 626 9327, fax +31 (0)20 627 7281Open daily from 17.30 to 23.00http://sichuan-food.orientalrestaurants.nl “First Michelin star Chinese restaurant in Europe. Top Chinese kitchen and quality service. The Peking duck is amazing. The restaurant owner is a member of the Order of Oranje.” – Six Star Society “Considered one of the area’s top Chinese restaurants, this small venue entertains a host of adherents. Although it boasts a somewhat formal atmosphere, it isn’t in the least bit off-putting. The cuisine is of good quality too, judiciously spiced and rife with fresh ingredients. Peking duck is excellent, and an array of chicken, beef, pork, and seafood dishes also please local palates. Set menus take care of those who desire the full dining experience, and the value is generally quite satisfying.” – 10Best Restaurant Reviews “Not far from Rembrandtplein, this restaurant (honored several times over by restaurant guides) prepares authentic Chinese food, most notably Szechuan specialties as its name indicates. Inside, the Chinese decor is sombre, drawing attention to a mysteriously blue-lit aquarium of exotic fish.” – Thalys Futurist Portrait: Jane McGonigal Jane McGonigal is a game designer, a games researcher, a future forecaster, and a very playful human being. “I make games that give a damn. I study how games change lives. I spend a lot of my time figuring out how the games we play today shape our real-world future. And so I’m trying to make sure that a game developer wins a Nobel Prize by the year 2032.” As an “alternate reality” designer, she specializes in projects that connect game worlds with the real world. Her games are usually physically active, massively multi-player and highly collaborative. Her primary goal as a designer is to create large-scale collaborative communities, to improve players’ real quality of life, and to solve real-world problems, by overlaying game systems and game content on top of everyday reality. Her best known projects include The Lost Ring (with AKQA, 2008) and The Lost Sport (2008), World Without Oil (with Ken Eklund and ITVS, 2007), a collaborative simulation of a global oil shortage; Cruel 2 B Kind (with Ian Bogost, 2006), a real-world assassination game that replaced weapons with random acts of kindness; Tombstone Hold ‘Em (with 42 Entertainment and Activision, 2005), which infused historic cemeteries with live adventure; and I Love Bees (with 42 Entertainment and Microsoft, 2004), the groundbreaking alternate reality game that turned 1000 payphones worldwide into a platform for collective intelligence. Previously, she was a lead designer at 42 Entertainment, the company that invented the genre of alternate reality games. RESEARCH As a games researcher, she focuses on how games can save the real world. Most recently, her research has focused on how to teach collaboration strategies and collective intelligence skills through alternate reality games, and was supported by the MacArthur Foundation’s initiative on digital media and youth. She has a PhD in performance studies from UC Berkeley. Her dissertation, “This Might Be a Game”, which she completed in 2006, focuses on the ways that alternate reality games influence and change the real world. Her dissertation received the international Leonardo Art + Technology Award for the most significant new media research filed in Fall 2006. While at UC Berkeley, she was a member of UC Berkeley’s Alpha Lab in the Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research and a resident game designer for the Berkeley Institute of Design. Her most widely cited research games include PlaceStormers (2005), Tele-Twister (2003), and Organum (2004). THE FUTURE As a future forecaster, she explores how games are changing the way we conduct and influence real business, real health care, real scientific research, and our real social lives. She focuses on ways that alternate reality games in particular could lead to a higher quality of life in both Western and developing nations, and how they could produce more engaging and thriving democracies worldwide. She has been a researcher with the Institute for the Future since January 2007, where she also develops massively multiplayer forecasting games. Part 1 Part 2 Agenda Our next Season Program will be announced soon!September 1417:00 – 01:o0 The First Annual IBC FCPUG SuperMeetLocation: Westergasfabriek – Gashouder, Klönneplein 3, Amsterdam Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …

the future of Developing Countries, November 2004

Club of Amsterdam pdf version SupporterPricewaterhouseCoopersSATORI Illustration by Job Romijn “Developing countries are no longer. Part of the former “Third World’ is in decay, struggling with governance crises, and economic deterioration. Other parts are rapidly becoming threats to US-dominated Empire, and to the European Union’s claims to become the world centre of innovation. Longer-term developments on a global scale will have to face further population growth, a rising demand for scarce resources on a world scale, the impact of climate change and vulnerability-increasing shocks. The economic and political tensions of the next fifty years will be dominated by the question: can the world develop a new governance regime for a globalised economy? Or will the world be confronted with regionalised block formation, in which hitherto ‘developing countries’ will become integrated in an American, a Eurafrican, a South-Asian and a Chinese block? What will be the position of obvious tension zones (Middle East, Indonesia)? Both regionalisation and globalisation will result in the gradual equalization of rewards for labour, first for educated labour, later for all forms of labour. A major mixing of labour streams, at global or regional levels can be expected, putting strong pressure on wage and salary levels in the hitherto ‘developed’ countries, and causing major social unrest. Innovation capability will shift to high-tech, low-reward economies, but leaving large parts of the globe out, which will add governance problems to increased instability and fluidity. Areas of opportunities and areas of threats will exist side-by-side, and shift rapidly, undermining the necessity of long-term investments. New global governance is dramatically needed.” [ Prof. Dr. Ton Dietz] “Far from being disadvantaged sectors, traditional sectors such as textiles, food and fishing are being revolutionized by new technologies and have been transformed into dynamic activities. These so-called low-tech sectors now provide sources of comparative advantage for developing countries. Kenya’s export of cut flower makes up to 20% of its export revenue; and Uganda is a major exporter of fish and fish products to the European Union. Much of the dynamism has its source in technical and organizational innovations. In my short presentation, I will argue that innovation will be increasingly central to the competitiveness of African countries. However, explicit investment is required in reforming formal institutions as well as the norms, habits and practices of the key actors in Africa’s system of production and innovation including policy makers and political actors.” [ Prof. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka] “The competitive winds are shifting from the west (Europe, USA) to the east and the south. China and India will be new economic superpowers in ten to twenty years. Outsource of bust.” [ Ton Lansink] 19:30 Welcome by our Moderator Prof.dr. Jacques van der Gaag, Dean, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam Part I: Prof. Dr. Ton Dietz, Professor of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam, Scientific Director, Netherlands Research School for Resource Studies for Development, CERES Prof. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka, United Nations University-Institute for New Technologies (UNU-INTECH) Ton Lansink, Managing Director, Centre for The Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries 21:15 Part II: Panel with the Speakers and our Moderator Prof.dr. Jacques van der Gaag The panel is followed by an open discussion. Prof. Dr. Ton Dietz Professor of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam Scientific Director, Netherlands Research School for Resource Studies for Development, CERES 1974-1976: Junior Teaching Assistant, Dept. of Human Geography (1974-75) and Third World Centre (1976), Catholic University Nijmegen 1976-1982: Lecturer Dept. of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam (half time), 1976-1979 member of the editorial board of Zone, Dutch Radical Journal of Geography and Planning, 1976-1981 member of the board of the Indonesia Commitee 1982-1988: (Senior) Lecturer Dept. of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam (1982-83 full time, half of it paid by DGIS; 1983-85 half time; 1985-88 full time as senior lecturer) 1988-1995: Associate Professor (UHD) Dept. of Human Geography, University of Amsterdam1995-1998: Professor in Rural Environmental Geography of Tropics and Subtropics 1998-present: Professor in Human Geography, Dept. of Geography and Planning, University of Amsterdam 1993-present: Member of the directorate of the Research School for Resource Studies for Development, CERES 1997-2002: Director of the Amsterdam Research Institute for Global Issues and Development Studies Scientific coordinator MHO NUFFIC project University of Amsterdam – Moi University School of Environmental Studies (1991-2003) Scientific Coordinator, NOP Impact of Climate Change in Drylands (ICCD) research programme (1997-2002) Chairman of International Geographical Union, section Netherlands (since 1999) Member of the Board of ETC International (Ecology and Technology Consultants) Leusden (since 1995) Member of the Board of the Netherlands Harambee Foundation for Health to support health care in West Pokot District, Kenya (since 1983) AMIDSt is a major international centre for research in the areas of human geography, international development studies, and planning and spatial policies and belongs to the Faculty of Social and Behavioural Sciences of the Universiteit van Amsterdam. http://www.fmg.uva.nl/amidst/home.cfm http://ceres.fss.uu.nl/start.html Prof. Banji Oyelaran-Oyeyinka United Nations University-Institute for New Technologies (UNU-INTECH) Prof. Oyeyinka joined UNU-INTECH in March 2001. Prior to that he worked as a Senior Economic Affairs officer at UNCTAD and Professor of Technology Management at the Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, NISER in Ibadan, Nigeria. Prof. Oyeyinka’s university training is in chemical engineering and he has a Ph.D. in Technology, Management and Industrialisation Policy from SPRU, University of Sussex, UK in 1988. His research specialisation is information and communication technologies (ICTs), and small and medium enterprise (SME) clusters within innovation systems. He has published widely in the area of engineering, information technology and technological innovation and has also undertaken consultancies for a number of UN organisations including the UNECA, ILO, UNIDO, UNDP and UNCTAD. Prof. Oyeyinka is a founding member of the African Technology Policy Studies Network (ATPS) and he has coordinated a number of national projects in Nigeria, including the Industry and Technology Study Groups that developed Nigeria’s Vision 2010. Prof. Oyeyinka has recently completed work on Africa’s Small and Medium Enterprises (and) Clusters and the New Competition. He is currently editing a manuscript (with Prof. Dorothy McCormick) on Innovation Systems and Innovative Clusters in Africa. http://www.intech.unu.edu Ton Lansink Managing Director, Centre for The Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries Born on September 11th, 1955 at Lichtenvoorde, The Netherlands. I’m married and have two sons. Obtained a Dutch University degree (drs, cum laude) in social and economic history and a teaching degree in economics in 1980. Joined the Dutch Foreign Service and was posted to Egypt (1982), Iraq (1982-1984), India (1984-1987), the United States (1987-1989) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in The Netherlands (1989 onwards). Postings included political (Washington DC), commercial (Baghdad) and development related (New Delhi) functions. Was Head of the Training Division of the Ministry (1993-1996) and Head of the South Asia Department (1997-2002) dealing with the Dutch bilateral relations with the South Asian countries, including Afghanistan. Managing Director of the Centre for The Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries (CBI). Joined CBI in the fall of 2002. Advisor on Trade and Development of Development Gateway (http://home.developmentgateway.org). Member of the Board of ASiA (Asia Studies in Amsterdam, http://go.to/asianstudies) http://www.cbi.nl Prof.dr. Jacques van der Gaag Dean, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam http://www.fee.uva.nl Adriaan Wagenaar solo guitar Founder, Satori Have You Met Miss Jones? Jazz standards and a fine blend of latin, on solo guitar by Adriaan Wagenaar. While having a drink, meeting people and reflecting on great ideas you can enjoy the guitar arrangements of ‘classics’ like Autumn Leaves, Caravan and My Romance and some Cuban folk songs. Background Adriaan’s roots are in the music of Bach, Piazolla, Sor and Villa Lobos. He followed masterclasses in baroque guitar and in Cuban jazz music. His approach of jazz standards is based upon the rich fingerstyle tradition of masters like Joe Pass and Charlie Byrd. Reflective, playful and with a sense of humour. Adriaan is founder of Satori, a consultancy network for brand innovations. It encompasses , activities in the areas of developing innovative business cultures, futurology, brand positioning customer relationship marketing and organization strategy. He is a speaker and writer on subjects like: Children On Management, Future Scenarios For Sustainable Development, The Corporate Jazz Band. http://www.satoristrategy.nl

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, September 2008, Issue 109

Content DNA can predict European region of originNext EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureStanford’s ‘autonomous’ helicopters teach themselves to flyRecommended BookEFMN correspondents’ day 2008: Weak Signals in ForesightFuturist Portrait: James LovelockAgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe “We¹ve got a great agenda lined up for this SuperMeet,” said Daniel Berube, co-producer and head of the Boston Final Cut Pro User Group. “Europe deserves the best and we think we have delivered. We will have the latest on Final Cut Studio delivered by Apple¹s Paul Saccone. We are bringing a little of Hollywood too, with Director Jeffrey Nachmanoff (screenwriter of The Day After Tomorrow) and Film Editor, Billy Fox (Hustle and Flow, Black Snake Moan) who will discuss how Final Cut Studio helped bring the recently released film, “Traitor” starring Don Cheadle to life. We will also have Miguel de Olaso from Spain showing off Red Camera footage and workflow, the new Infinity Camera from Grass Valley/Thomson, the Sundance Audience Award winning documentary “Fields of Fuel,” Production Premium from Adobe and Final Cut Pro tips and tricks. It¹s going to be a great show.”“We¹ve produced these events as part of Macworld in San Francisco and NAB in Las Vegas for the last seven years,” says Michael Horton, co-producer of the SuperMeet and head of the Los Angeles Final Cut Pro User Group. “And for seven years we¹ve wanted to bring the SuperMeet to Europe. Now we will.” The First Annual IBC FCPUG SuperMeet, Sunday, September 14, 2008.Where: Westergasfabriek – Gashouder, Klönneplein 3, AmsterdamFelix Bopp, editor-in-chief DNA can predict European region of origin DNA now also makes it possible to predict from which region in Europe a person originates. Researchers from Erasmus MC, in an international collaborative study, have found the link between genetic diversity and geographic origin of Europeans. The study, partly financed by the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI), provides an important new basis for forensic applications. The scientific journal Current Biology published the research results on 7 August. Researchers from the Department of Forensic Molecular Biology of the Erasmus MC, in an international collaborative study under the leadership of Prof. Dr. Manfred Kayser, have discovered that autosomal (non-sex-specific) DNA characteristics can predict from which region in Europe a man or woman originates. Previously it was only possible to distinguish people according to their continental origin on the basis of DNA markers and sometimes additionally, only for men, the region within continents, using DNA characteristics found on the Y-chromosome. Disadvantage of this Y-chromosome test is that it can only be carried out on men and that any possible mixing of ancestors from different continents or regions is not traceable. The latter can result in misleading conclusions on the region of origin in forensic applications. According to Prof. Dr. Manfred Kayser: “The new method is at present based on a large number of autosomal DNA markers. These can only be determined from relatively large amounts of undamaged DNA material, for example, in forensic cases in which an unknown person is to be identified on the basis of DNA from a body or parts of a body. The next step is to determine the minimum number of autosomal DNA markers necessary to predict the European region of origin. This should in the future allow making a reliable decision also when only DNA of limited quantity and quality is available.” Prof. Dr. Ate Kloosterman , senior forensic researcher at the NFI says: “The results of this study offer interesting opportunities for obtaining in the future more information from traces of biological material that have, for example, been obtained from a criminal offender. This is not only of importance in recent cases but also in ‘cold cases’ where the information on geographic origin can be significant. Prior to this, the method will have to be made suitable for forensic practice as often little DNA or sometimes partially broken DNA is available. Genetically speaking, Finns and Italians are the most atypical Europeans. There is a large degree of overlap between other European ethnicities, but not up to the point where they would be indistinguishable from each other. Which means that forensic scientists now can use DNA to predict the region of origin of otherwise unknown persons (provided they are of European heritage) The discovery that autosomal (i.e. non-gender-related) aspects of DNA may be used to predict regional European provenance of unkown individuals was made by prof. dr. Manfred Kayser’s team of forensic molecular biologists. In a press release, the Erasmus UMC stated that this might potentially be helpful in resolving so-called ‘cold cases’. The genetic map of Europe was compiled by comparing DNA samples from 23 populations in Europe (picture B). Those populations were then placed on the ‘genetic’ map according to their similarity, with the vertical axis denoting differences from south to north, and the horizontal one from west to east. The larger the area assigned to a population, the larger the genetic variation within that population. When compared to the actual map, the populations kinda sorta maintain their relative position to each other. Two observations spring to mind immediately: the fact that most populations overlap so intimately with their neighbours. And that Finland doesn’t. Some other observations: The extent of genetic variation is greater north to south than east to west. This may be a result of the way Europe was colonized by modern humans, i.e. from the south, in three successive waves of migration (45,000 years ago, where before there had only been Neanderthals; 17,000 years ago, after the last Ice Age; and 10,000 years ago, with the advent of farming techniques from the Middle East). The isolation of Finnish genetics can be explained by the fact that they were at one time a very small population, preserving its genetic idiosyncrasies as it expanded. The relative isolation of Italian genetics is probably due to the Alps, providing a geographic barrier to the free and unhindered flow of population to and from Italy… Although Hannibal, the Celtic and Germanic influence in Italy’s north and of course the expansion of the Roman Empire would seem to contradict this. Yugoslav genetic variation is quite large (hence the big pink blob), and overlaps with the Greek, Romanian, Hungarian, Czech and even the Italian ones. There is surprisingly little overlap between the northern and southern German populations, each of which has more in common with their other neighbours (Danish/Dutch/Swedish in the northern case, Austrian/Swiss/French in the other one). The Polish population is quite eccentric as well, only significantly overlapping with the Czech one (and only minimally with the northern German one). The Swiss population is entirely subsumed by the French one, similarly, the Irish population almost doesn’t show any characteristics that would distinguish it from the British one. British and Irish insularity probably explains why so much of their genetic area is not shared with their closest European cousins, i.c. the Norwegian / Danish / Dutch cluster. Next Event Organised by Final Cut Pro User Group Los Angeles Sunday, September 14, 2008Registration: 17:00-19:00Presentations: 19:00-22:00After Party: 22:00-01:00 This event is open to the public. Seating is first come first serve. Where: Westergasfabriek – Gashouder, Klönneplein 3, Amsterdam Event Management & Catering by SONARIS:Mediterranean food, beer, wine, champagne, non-alcoholic and tropical drinks. The event is supported byApple, Adobe, Blackmagicdesign, Thomson, the Westergasfabriek and many more .. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com September 10: EFMN correspondents’ day 2008: Weak Signals in ForesightSeptember 10: IBC FCPUG SuperMeetJune 9 : Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030May 24: Beyond InnovationMay 24: What future coal? News about the Future Exoskeleton for granpaFinding ways to assist and care for the growing elderly population in many developed countries is a growing problem. One challenge is to work out how to improve the strength and utility of ageing limbs.Yoshiyuki Sankai at the University of Tsukuba near Tokyo, has developed an exoskeleton for a single arm that can do just that.The device consists of a tabard worn over the shoulders with a motorised exoskeleton for one arm attached. The exoskeleton senses the angle, torque and nerve impulses in the arm and then assists the user to move his or her shoulder and elbow joints accordingly  Ice SaunaThe Snow Room is a ten-degrees-below-zero “spa” that will be making its way to luxury hotels in Antalya, Turkey. The room will be offered to those hotel guests who have had enough of the blazing sun and unbearable heat, and are looking for a way to cool down – at minus ten degrees the Snow Room will be just the place Westergasfabriek Amsterdam If you’re looking for an adventurous place in Amsterdam, then the Westergasfabriek Culture Park is worth a visit. Art and culture form the basis of this down-to-earth industrial complex close to the centre of Amsterdam. The new energy is tangible for everyone who visits for work, play, exercise, entertainment or events. Just about anything goes in these historic buildings; from a photo shoot to major audience events, from weddings to exclusive product presentations. The venues available for a temporary hire are: the magnificent circular Gasometer (2500 m2), the Transformer House with its sacred mood (700 m2), the impressive Purification Hall (1200 m2), the intimate Machine Building with chapel (340 m2) and the small Eastern Meter House (60 m2), furnished as a meeting room. The outdoor spaces such as the quayside, the larger meadow or the gardens of the park can also be used for events. The Westergasfabriek is freely accessible all day. From early in the morning, there’s fresh bread and fine coffee at the Baker’s Shop (open every day) and the Espresso Factory (open tue – sun). There are various galleries and shops, Pacific Parc cafe/restaurant/dancing (open everyday) and the food-design studio Proef (open: fri-sun). The Ketelhuis Cinema (open everyday) shows the latest films and in the Flex Bar (open thu – sun) you can dance late in the night. Opening soon: The WestergasTerras for drinks, dinner, parties & salsa near the wetlands. The modern park surrounding the site offers plenty of space, peace and nature; for a picknick, to throw a frisby or a pleasant walk. You are most welcome. Westergasfabriek / Pazzanistraat 41 / 1041 DB Amsterdam /T: + 31 (0) 20 5860710 / F: + 31 (0) 20 6813062 /E info@westergasfabriek.nl I www.westergasfabriek.com Stanford’s ‘autonomous’ helicopters teach themselves to fly Stanford computer scientists have developed an artificial intelligence system that enables robotic helicopters to teach themselves to fly difficult stunts by watching other helicopters perform the same maneuvers. The result is an autonomous helicopter than can perform a complete airshow of complex tricks on its own. The stunts are “by far the most difficult aerobatic maneuvers flown by any computer controlled helicopter,” said Andrew Ng, the professor directing the research of graduate students Pieter Abbeel, Adam Coates, Timothy Hunter and Morgan Quigley. The dazzling airshow is an important demonstration of “apprenticeship learning,” in which robots learn by observing an expert, rather than by having software engineers peck away at their keyboards in an attempt to write instructions from scratch. Stanford’s artificial intelligence system learned how to fly by “watching” the four-foot-long helicopters flown by expert radio control pilot Garett Oku. “Garett can pick up any helicopter, even ones he’s never seen, and go fly amazing aerobatics. So the question for us is always, why can’t computers do things like this?” Coates said. Computers can, it turns out. On a recent morning in an empty field at the edge of campus, Abbeel and Coates sent up one of their helicopters to demonstrate autonomous flight. The aircraft, brightly painted Stanford red, is an off-the-shelf radio control helicopter, with instrumentation added by the researchers. For five minutes, the chopper, on its own, ran through a dizzying series of stunts beyond the capabilities of a full-scale piloted helicopter and other autonomous remote control helicopters. The artificial-intelligence helicopter performed a smorgasbord of difficult maneuvers: traveling flips, rolls, loops with pirouettes, stall-turns with pirouettes, a knife-edge, an Immelmann, a slapper, an inverted tail slide and a hurricane, described as a “fast backward funnel.” The pièce de résistance may have been the “tic toc,” in which the helicopter, while pointed straight up, hovers with a side-to-side motion as if it were the pendulum of an upside down clock. “I think the range of maneuvers they can do is by far the largest” in the autonomous helicopter field, said Eric Feron, a Georgia Tech aeronautics and astronautics professor who worked on autonomous helicopters while at MIT. “But what’s more impressive is the technology that underlies this work. In a way, the machine teaches itself how to do this by watching an expert pilot fly. This is amazing.” Writing software for robotic helicopters is a daunting task, in part because the craft itself, unlike an airplane, is inherently unstable. “The helicopter doesn’t want to fly. It always wants to just tip over and crash,” said Oku, the pilot. To scientists, a helicopter in flight is an “unstable system” that comes unglued without constant input. Abbeel compares flying a helicopter to balancing a long pole in the palm of your hand: “If you don’t provide feedback, it will crash.” Early on in their research, Abbeel and Coates attempted to write computer code that would specify the commands for the desired trajectory of a helicopter flying a specific maneuver. While this hand-coded approach succeeded with novice-level flips and rolls, it flopped with the complex tic-toc.” It might seem that an autonomous helicopter could fly stunts by simply replaying the exact finger movements of an expert pilot using the joy sticks on the helicopter’s remote controller. That approach, however, is doomed to failure because of uncontrollable variables such as gusting winds. When the Stanford researchers decided their autonomous helicopter should be capable of flying airshow stunts, they realized that even defining their goal was difficult. What’s the formal specification for “flying well?” The answer, it turned out, was that “flying well” is whatever an expert radio control pilot does at an airshow. So the researchers had Oku and other pilots fly entire airshow routines while every movement of the helicopter was recorded. As Oku repeated a maneuver several times, the trajectory of the helicopter inevitably varied slightly with each flight. But the learning algorithms created by Ng’s team were able to discern the ideal trajectory the pilot was seeking. Thus the autonomous helicopter learned to fly the routine better – and more consistently – than Oku himself. During a flight, some of the necessary instrumentation is mounted on the helicopter, some on the ground. Together, they continuously monitor the position, direction, orientation, velocity, acceleration and spin of the helicopter in several dimensions. A ground-based computer crunches the data, makes quick calculations and beams new flight directions to the helicopter via radio 20 times per second. The helicopter carries accelerometers, gyroscopes and magnetometers, the latter of which use the Earth’s magnetic field to figure out which way the helicopter is pointed. The exact location of the craft is tracked either by a GPS receiver on the helicopter or by cameras on the ground. (With a larger helicopter, the entire navigation package could be airborne.) There is interest in using autonomous helicopters to search for land mines in war-torn areas or to map out the hot spots of California wildfires in real time, allowing firefighters to quickly move toward or away from them. Firefighters now must often act on information that is several hours old, Abbeel said. “In order for us to trust helicopters in these sort of mission-critical applications, it’s important that we have very robust, very reliable helicopter controllers that can fly maybe as well as the best human pilots in the world can,” Ng said. Stanford’s autonomous helicopters have taken a large step in that direction, he said.http://heli.stanford.edu Recommended Book Crowdsourcing: Why the Power of the Crowd Is Driving the Future of Businessby Jeff Howe “The amount of knowledge and talent dispersed among the human race has always outstripped our capacity to harness it. Crowdsourcing ­ corrects that -but in doing so, it also unleashes the forces of creative destruction.” – From Crowdsourcing First identified by journalist Jeff Howe in a June 2006 Wired article, “crowdsourcing” describes the process by which the power of the many can be leveraged to accomplish feats that were once the province of the specialized few. Howe reveals that the crowd is more than wise – it’s talented, creative, and stunningly productive. Crowdsourcing activates the transformative power of today’s technology, liberating the latent potential within us all. It’s a perfect meritocracy, where age, gender, race, education, and job history no longer matter; the quality of work is all that counts; and every field is open to people of every imaginable background. If you can perform the service, design the product, or solve the problem, you’ve got the job. But crowdsourcing has also triggered a dramatic shift in the way work is organized, talent is employed, research is conducted, and products are made and marketed. As the crowd comes to supplant traditional forms of labor, pain and disruption are inevitable. Jeff Howe delves into both the positive and negative consequences of this intriguing phenomenon. Through extensive reporting from the front lines of this revolution, he employs a brilliant array of stories to look at the economic, cultural, business, and political implications of crowdsourcing. How were a bunch of part-time dabblers in finance able to help an investment company consistently beat the market? Why does Procter & Gamble repeatedly call on enthusiastic amateurs to solve scientific and technical challenges? How can companies as diverse as iStockphoto and Threadless employ just a handful of people, yet generate millions of dollars in revenue every year? The answers lie within these pages. The blueprint for crowdsourcing originated from a handful of computer programmers who showed that a community of like-minded peers could create better products than a corporate behemoth like Microsoft. Jeff Howe tracks the amazing migration of this new model of production, showing the potential of the Internet to create human networks that can divvy up and make quick work of otherwise overwhelming tasks. One of the most intriguing ideas of Crowdsourcing is that the knowledge to solve intractable problems – a cure for cancer, for instance – may already exist within the warp and weave of this infinite and, as yet, largely untapped resource. But first, Howe proposes, we need to banish preconceived notions of how such problems are solved. The very concept of crowdsourcing stands at odds with centuries of practice. Yet, for the digital natives soon to enter the workforce, the technologies and principles behind crowdsourcing are perfectly intuitive. This generation collaborates, shares, remixes, and creates with a fluency and ease the rest of us can hardly understand. Crowdsourcing, just now starting to emerge, will in a short time simply be the way things are done. EFMN correspondents’ day 2008: Weak Signals in Foresight This year’s European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN) correspondents’ day takes place in Brussels on the 3rd – 4th November. The network comprises European policy professionals, foresight experts and practitioners as well as analysts of science, technology and innovation related issues. . The aim of the EFMN correspondent’s day is to infuse the so far largely virtual EFMN community with real life. The event itself strikes a good balance between presentations of interesting foresight content and the opportunity to network with like minded professionals. Attendance is free of charge. This year’s event theme is weak signals. This topic receives increasing attention from policy-makers and firms to yield results in practice. A mix of presentations is planned covering the methodological challenges of identifying weak signals as well as presentations of case studies from weak signal studies done for firms and policy-makers. The event takes place at the Brussels University Foundation starting at 12:00 on the 3rd and ending the following day the 4th November at 15:00. A detailed programme will be sent to all participants after registration has closed. Highlights of event Weak Signals· Keynote speaker: Dr Elina Hiltunen on weak signals research (Futures Research Finland / Nokia)· Anssi Tervonen on weak signals at timber firm M-real (Datarangers, Finland)· Weak signals identification in policy. EFMN activities· Key Messages from the EFMN Journal Special published 2008.· Opinion poll and discussion on weak signals· Results of EFMN mapping and Issue analysis 2008· Presentation of recent EFMN briefs production and website tutorial Presentation by Pierre Valette; Head of Unit DG-RTD/L.2: Commission Roadmap Networking / self-presentation:· Opening with lunch buffet· Informal dinner arranged at the conference location· Option to present own work and ideas in Pecha Kucha style at conference Sichuan FoodReguliersdwarsstraat 35, 1017BK Amsterdamtel. +31 (0)20 626 9327, fax +31 (0)20 627 7281Open daily from 17.30 to 23.00http://sichuan-food.orientalrestaurants.nl “First Michelin star Chinese restaurant in Europe. Top Chinese kitchen and quality service. The Peking duck is amazing. The restaurant owner is a member of the Order of Oranje.” – Six Star Society “Considered one of the area’s top Chinese restaurants, this small venue entertains a host of adherents. Although it boasts a somewhat formal atmosphere, it isn’t in the least bit off-putting. The cuisine is of good quality too, judiciously spiced and rife with fresh ingredients. Peking duck is excellent, and an array of chicken, beef, pork, and seafood dishes also please local palates. Set menus take care of those who desire the full dining experience, and the value is generally quite satisfying.” – 10Best Restaurant Reviews “Not far from Rembrandtplein, this restaurant (honored several times over by restaurant guides) prepares authentic Chinese food, most notably Szechuan specialties as its name indicates. Inside, the Chinese decor is sombre, drawing attention to a mysteriously blue-lit aquarium of exotic fish.” – Thalys Futurist Portrait: James Lovelock Dr James Ephraim Lovelock, CH, CBE, FRS (born 26 July 1919) is an independent scientist, author, researcher, environmentalist, and futurist who lives in Cornwall, in the south west of England. He is known for proposing the Gaia hypothesis, in which he postulates that the Earth functions as a kind of superorganism. A lifelong inventor, Lovelock has created and developed many scientific instruments, some of which have been adopted by NASA in its programme of planetary exploration. It was while working for NASA that Lovelock developed the Gaia Hypothesis, for which he is most widely known. In early 1961, Lovelock was engaged by NASA to develop sensitive instruments for the analysis of extraterrestrial atmospheres and planetary surfaces. The Viking program that visited Mars in the late-1970s was motivated in part to determining whether Mars supported life, and many of the sensors and experiments that were ultimately deployed aimed to resolve this issue. During work towards this program, Lovelock became interested in the composition of the Martian atmosphere, reasoning that many life forms on Mars would be obliged to make use of it (and, thus, alter it). However, the atmosphere was found to be in a stable condition close to its chemical equilibrium, with very little oxygen, methane, or hydrogen, but with an overwhelming abundance of carbon dioxide. To Lovelock, the stark contrast between the Martian atmosphere and chemically-dynamic mixture of that of our Earth’s biosphere was strongly indicative of the absence of life on the planet. However, when they were finally launched to Mars, the Viking probes still searched (unsuccessfully) for extant life there. Lovelock invented the electron capture detector, which ultimately assisted in discoveries about the persistence of CFCs and their role in stratospheric ozone depletion. After studying the operation of the Earth’s sulfur cycle, Lovelock and his colleagues developed the CLAW hypothesis as a possible example of biological control of the Earth’s climate. Lovelock was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1974. He served as the president of the Marine Biological Association (MBA) from 1986 to 1990, and has been a Honourary Visiting Fellow of Green College, Oxford since 1994. He has been awarded a number of prestigious prizes including the Tswett Medal (1975), an ACS chromatography award (1980), the WMO Norbert Gerbier Prize (1988), the Dr A.H. Heineken Prize for the Environment (1990) and the RGS Discovery Lifetime award (2001). He became a CBE in 1990, and a Companion of Honour in 2003. An independent scientist, inventor, and author, Lovelock works out of a barn-turned-laboratory in Cornwall. CFCs After the development of his electron capture detector in the late 1960s, Lovelock was the first to detect the widespread presence of CFCs in the atmosphere. He found a concentration of 60 parts per trillion of CFC-11 over Ireland and, in a partially self-funded research expedition in 1972, went on to measure the concentration of CFC-11 from the northern hemisphere to the Antarctic aboard the research vessel RV Shackleton. He found the gas in each of the 50 air samples that he collected but, not knowing of the risk that chlorine posed to the ozone layer, incorrectly concluded that the level of CFCs constituted “no conceivable hazard”. However, the experiment did provide the first useful data on the ubiquitous presence of CFCs in the atmosphere. The damage caused to the ozone layer by the photolysis of CFCs was later discovered by Frank Rowland and Mario Molina. After hearing a lecture on the subject of Lovelock’s results, they embarked on research that resulted in the first published paper that suggested a link between stratospheric CFCs and ozone depletion in 1974, and later shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for their work. Gaia First formulated by Lovelock during the 1960s as a result of work for NASA concerned with detecting life on Mars, the Gaia hypothesis proposes that living and non-living parts of the earth form a complex interacting system that can be thought of as a single organism. Named after the Greek goddess Gaia, the hypothesis postulates that the biosphere has a regulatory effect on the Earth’s environment that acts to sustain life. While the Gaia Hypothesis was readily accepted by many in the environmentalist community, it has not been fully accepted within the scientific community. Among its more famous critics are the evolutionary biologists Richard Dawkins and Ford Doolittle. These (and other) critics have questioned how natural selection operating on individual organisms can lead to the evolution of planetary-scale homeostasis Lovelock has responded to these criticisms with models such as Daisyworld, that illustrate how individual-level effects can translate to planetary homeostasis. However, as Earth Systems Science is still in its infancy, it is not yet clear how well Daisyworld applies to the full complexity of the Earth’s biosphere and climate. For instance, climatologists believe that the models used by Lovelock were overly-sensitive to organisms. Nuclear power Lovelock has become concerned about the threat of global warming from the greenhouse effect. In 2004 he caused a media sensation when he broke with many fellow environmentalists by pronouncing that “only nuclear power can now halt global warming”. In his view, nuclear energy is the only realistic alternative to fossil fuels that has the capacity to both fulfill the large scale energy needs of mankind while also reducing greenhouse emissions. He is an open member of Environmentalists for Nuclear Energy. In 2005, against the backdrop of renewed UK government interest in nuclear power, Lovelock again publicly announced his support for nuclear energy, stating, “I am a Green, and I entreat my friends in the movement to drop their wrongheaded objection to nuclear energy”. Although these interventions in the public debate on nuclear power are recent, his views on it are longstanding. In his 1988 book The Ages of Gaia he states: “I have never regarded nuclear radiation or nuclear power as anything other than a normal and inevitable part of the environment. Our prokaryotic forebears evolved on a planet-sized lump of fallout from a star-sized nuclear explosion, a supernova that synthesised the elements that go to make our planet and ourselves.” In The Revenge of Gaia (2006), where he puts forward the concept of sustainable retreat, Lovelock writes: “A television interviewer once asked me, ‘But what about nuclear waste? Will it not poison the whole biosphere and persist for millions of years? ‘ I knew this to be a nightmare fantasy wholly without substance in the real world… One of the striking things about places heavily contaminated by radioactive nuclides is the richness of their wildlife. This is true of the land around Chernobyl, the bomb test sites of the Pacific, and areas near the United States’ Savannah River nuclear weapons plant of the Second World War. Wild plants and animals do not perceive radiation as dangerous, and any slight reduction it may cause in their lifespans is far less a hazard than is the presence of people and their pets… I find it sad, but all too human, that there are vast bureaucracies concerned about nuclear waste, huge organisations devoted to decommissioning power stations, but nothing comparable to deal with that truly malign waste, carbon dioxide.” On 30 May 2006, Lovelock told the Australian Lateline television program: “Modern nuclear power stations are useless for making bombs”. This view may be based on fact that plutonium-239 from the nuclear reactor of a power plant is contaminated with a significant amount of plutonium-240, complicating its use in nuclear weapons. It is easier to enrich uranium than to separate 240Pu from 239Pu to produce weapons-grade material, although even reactor-grade plutonium can in fact be used in weapons eg. dirty bombs. Friends of the Earth Australia responded: “Lovelock’s claim that nuclear power plants cannot be used for weapons production is false, irresponsible and dangerous. A typical nuclear power reactor produces about 300 kilograms of plutonium each year, enough for 30 nuclear weapons” Climate and mass human mortality Writing in the British newspaper The Independent in January 2006, Lovelock argues that, as a result of global warming, “billions of us will die and the few breeding pairs of people that survive will be in the Arctic where the climate remains tolerable” by the end of the 21st century. He has been quoted in The Guardian that 80% of humans will perish by 2100 AD, and this climate change will last 100,000 years. He further predicts, the average temperature in temperate regions will increase by as much as 8°C and by up to 5°C in the tropics, leaving much of the world’s land uninhabitable and unsuitable for farming, with northerly migrations and new cities created in the Arctic. He predicts much of Europe will become uninhabitable having turned to desert and Britain will become Europe’s “life-raft” due to Britain’s stable temperature from being surrounded by the ocean. He suggests that “we have to keep in mind the awesome pace of change and realise how little time is left to act, and then each community and nation must find the best use of the resources they have to sustain civilisation for as long as they can”. He partly retreated from this position in a September 2007 address to the World Nuclear Association’s Annual Symposium, suggesting that climate change would stabilise and prove survivable, and that the Earth itself is in “no danger” because it would stabilise in a new state. Life, however, might be forced to migrate en masse to remain in habitable climes. Ocean Pipes proposal In September 2007, Lovelock and Chris Rapley proposed the construction of ocean pipes “100 to 200 metres long, 10 metres in diameter and with a one-way flap valve at the lower end for pumping by wave movement” to pump water up from below the thermocline to “fertilize algae in the surface waters and encourage them to bloom”. The intention of this scheme is to accelerate the transfer of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to the ocean by increasing primary production and enhancing the export of organic carbon (as marine snow) to the deep ocean. The idea is theoretical, and the authors note that it “may fail, perhaps on engineering or economic grounds”, and that “the impact on ocean acidification will need to be taken into account”. The proposal attracted widespread media attention], although also criticism. Commenting on the proposal, Corinne Le Quéré, a University of East Anglia researcher, said “It doesn’t make sense. There is absolutely no evidence that geoengineering options work or even go in the right direction. I’m astonished that they published this. Before any geoengineering is put to work a massive amount of research is needed – research which will take 20 to 30 years”. Other researchers have claimed that “this scheme would bring water with high natural pCO2 levels (associated with the nutrients) back to the surface, potentially causing exhalation of CO2”. A similar scheme to that proposed by Lovelock and Rapley is already being developed by a commercial company Agenda Our next Season Program will be announced soon!September 1417:00 – 01:o0 The First Annual IBC FCPUG SuperMeetLocation: Westergasfabriek – Gashouder, Klönneplein 3, Amsterdam Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join ouronline platform …

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2008, Issue 110

Content Ups and Downs, and Mostly Ups – What Drives the Price of Oil?Next EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureTidal power – energy from the seaRecommended BookSmart CitiesFuturist Portrait: Glen HiemstraAgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.Annegien Blokpoel, founder and managing director, PerspeXo and author “Maak je bedrijf meer waard” about “Increase the value of your company”:“- Why do 80% of enterprise owners not know what the value of their company is?– Why do more than 85% of these companies have less than 10 employees?. There are more than 20 million companies in Europe, and less than 2% have more than 1.000 employees. A major challenge for European SME’s is therefore to overcome the “growth challenges” and their own personal and managerial pitfalls. To overcome – in a well risk managed way – the transformation moments is of key essence for growing on the business life cycle. In order to find out what the major challenges are, and how they could be overcome, Annegien interviewed 20 entrepeneurs and their advisors/capital providers (accountants, private equity and bankers) in the Netherlands. In her presentation she will share her know how as strategic advisor and apply the outcome of the research to practical ways of dealing with the challenges for SME’s.”In case you would like to hear more and also share your thoughts, visit our next event about the future of Values in Business on November 20.Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Ups and Downs, and Mostly Ups – What Drives the Price of Oil? By Michael Akerib, Rusconsult The recent major increases in the price of oil and its derivatives such as gasoline, have affected all businesses. If fishermen and lorry drivers have been the most vocal in their protests, the tourism industry is just as likely to suffer from these new price levels. Higher airfares threaten to severely affect both airlines and the hospitality industry – particularly if predictions of further rises to $250 per barrel turn out to be correct. Airbus and Boeing are already feeling the sting with fears of postponement or cancellation of orders.It is therefore important to understand the drivers behind the recent price movements.Traditionally the factors affecting the price of oil have been grouped into fundamental, geopolitical and ‘other’ categories.The two most important fundamental factors at present are the demand and supply balance and the value of the US dollar. Supply and demand While the market appears to be balanced today, the US government is convinced that an increased production would lead to lower prices. However, the Saudi government’s announcement that they would increase production from 9.5 million to 10 million barrels a day did not contribute to any dampening of the prices. The world’s largest producer and exporter fears that if the prices maintain themselves at levels above $100/barrel, that the present recession will deepen leading to a downward price spiral that would lead to a significantly lower income for the producing countries. They also fear that a further drop in the American currency would severely affect the Saudi kingdom’s reserves. An even worse threat is that a stabilization of oil prices at a high level would spur the introduction of biofuels that would replace oil in a significant manner. Not everyone, though, is convinced of the ability of the Saudi kingdom to increase its production levels in a sustainable manner. The country has, until recently, been loath at opening new deposits as forecasting market demand is extremely difficult in the oil market. Some of the Saudi deposits may well contain high sulphur or heavy crudes that are difficult to sell. Saudi Arabia plans to open the Khurais complex by 2010 – the first major oil field opened in the last 40 years – at a cost of $15 billion. This sum is small compared to the investment that would be required to develop Saudi’s potential offshore field. Other countries too have difficulty in increasing, or even maintaining, their capacity. Thus, Russia, which accounted for 80% of the growth of supply from non-OPEC countries over the last few years, seems unable to maintain its present production level and, for the first time in the last ten years, production in the country fell. Mid-term prospects, however, are optimistic as new Siberian fields are put into production. However, global warming is affecting drilling activities in Siberia as the lack of ice makes it difficult to transport equipment as roads are non-existent on many areas. Major investments are required to keep production at present levels. They are estimates at $1 trillion over the next 20 years for Russia alone. Other non-OPEC countries, such as Mexico and Norway, have also been unable to sustain production levels. More generally, production in a large number of countries is decreasing due to the age of the wells. This has led to a widespread belief in the theory of a peak in crude oil production and discovery. The peak oil theory was first expounded in 1956 and its inventor, Mr Hubert, stated that US oil production would peak in 1970 – and it did. Not everyone agrees, and among them the world’s leading oil consultancy – CERA. Some experts believe we are not running out of oil, but out of production capacity for a variety of reasons such as lack of investments and trained manpower. Another important set of actors weighing on the crude oil market, and they are new compared to the traditional actors in previous oil crises, are the car drivers of the emerging economies, such as China and India, that have access to subsidized gasoline and who are therefore relatively unaffected by major rises at the pump and have thus no incentive to save fuel. Demand is increasing faster in countries with high subsidies. China alone will spend this year around $40 billion to subsidize the price of gasoline. Indeed, the major imbalance today is on gasoline rather than crude. Refineries prefer light oil – used to produce petrol and diesel – to heavy oils that goes into the production of fuel oil used mainly for heating. Iran, for instance, a major producer of heavy oil, stocks large quantities, that they are unable to sell, in vessels moored offshore. Price increases in the retail market will probably lead refiners to increase their investments to treat heavy oils, and this may well decrease prices by increasing availability at the pump. As prices of oil rise, oil producers invest some of the funds locally, expanding the economy, and thus their own oil consumption, leaving a smaller part of their output available for export. This, in turn, leads to price increases. Prices at the pump in oil-producing states, with the notable exception of Norway, is usually tax free – it is, for instance, of US$0.20 per gallon in Venezuela – and this leads to a fairly unrestrained consumption, further reducing quantities available for export. Even though China and India have recently increased the domestic sales price of petrol which remains, however, highly subsidized. The elements above are exacerbated by more fundamental issues such as a lack of qualified petroleum engineers and a need for new infrastructure. Recent graduates from emerging countries are arriving on the employment market but essentially join national companies in their own countries rather than joining one of the majors. The actors Among the biggest players on the oil market today, are the so-called ‘new 7 sisters’ which are Aramco, CNPC, Gazprom, NIOC, Petrobras, Petronas and PdVSA. Banks and other financial institutions such as hedge funds are also major players on the futures markets with the oil producers accounting for less than half the volume. More specifically, index funds attempt to beat certain indexes and therefore need prices to increase. The total volume invested in index funds has grown 20 times over the last five years. They see oil as a refuge from a weak dollar. This has led some political leaders from US presidential candidate Barack Obama to India’s Petroleum Secretary to ask for the halting of oil futures trading, which they believe to be manipulated by the speculation from large institutional players. This, however, is most unlikely to happen. US regulators also consider imposing limits to trading positions, including on those taken by US investors on foreign markets. A number of politicians have blamed ‘speculators’ who are switching their holdings from traditional assets such as stocks and bonds to oil futures, particularly on the NYMEX – the New York Mercantile Exchange. Indeed, the number of trades is twenty times bigger than it was five years ago. This represents eight times the imports of the US. However, it is not clear if speculative action is responsible for the increase in prices or rather if the increase in prices has driven speculators to the market. The US is about to introduce legislation that would limit the positions that investors can take on futures markets. Comparisons have been made with other commodity markets where increased activity is uncorrelated with price movements. Further, some commodities that are not traded on futures markets have risen even more abruptly than oil. Oil future traders do not take delivery of physical product and therefore cannot weigh on prices as they do not hoard product. The US dollar US imports and consumption are responsible for a massive transfer of capital from the US to the oil producing countries, in particular to OPEC countries which supply 40% of the world’s oil. The drop of the US dollar against all convertible currencies has been a contributor to the price increase of the barrel of oil, producers seeking to maintain a stable price in their domestic currency. Every increase in interest rates on the Euro led to an almost immediate increase in the price of oil, in parallel with a drop in the dollar. The OECD scenario forecasts that the share of OPEC countries in global production will increase from the present 40% to 52% by 2030. Should the price of oil keep rising, this would translate into substantial increases in the flow of funds towards the member countries. The fall of the dollar translates into lower income in national currency for the producing countries. Nevertheless, the rise of the oil prices has fueled an economic expansion in the Gulf and attracted more foreign workers. Due to a shortage of living space, this has, in turn, driven up rents and consequently inflation. Since the currencies are pegged to the dollar, the oil producers in the Gulf are not free to apply an anti-inflationary policy as it would increase the value of their currency. Kuwait has already pegged its own currency to a basket. The risk is a run on the dollar as sentiment against the currency builds. Seen from the eyes of buyers, countries with currencies appreciating against the dollar may well be tempted to build stocks. A global economic crisis would reduce oil needs and dollar flows from the US, thus strengthening the currency. For the present, however, gold, which has traditionally been the traditional investment product that acts as a refuge against a falling dollar, fear of political disruption and inflation has been replaced replaced, by oil. Geopolitical factors The geopolitical factors include the political situation in Iran, Iraq and Nigeria, resource nationalism, sea lane security, the risk of terrorism as well as climate change. The major fears are, of have been, in the recent past: the disintegration of the Middle East, whether by Turkish incursions into Iraq or by an all-out war between Shias and Sunnis more specifically the fragility of the Saudi monarchy, seen as the insurer of world oil production in case of shortfalls, and the possibility that Al Qaeda may gain power in that country and stop oil exports. The geographic concentration of both production (in a single large facility) and shipment (two oil terminals) makes disruption of the flow of oil possible supply disruptions in Nigeria supply disruption from Venezuela the fact that the vast majority of the large oil suppliers are politically unstable a US military intervention in Iran. The country is the world’s fourth largest oil producer but also could take action to block the Hormuz straits through which a major part of the world oil trade is channeled. Analysts calculate that these fears have put a premium of $25 to 50 on the barrel. Whenever fears drive markets, the latter tend to become unreasonable particularly when stocks are low and producers are unlikely to significantly increase production short term. The future Forecasts on the price for the next year or two vary considerably depending on the assumptions made by the forecasters, and any way forecasting the future price of oil is a perilous exercise at best. Historically, attempts at prediction have lacked precision. The world’s population will certainly continue to increase and their mobility needs are not likely to decrease. The International Energy Agency forecasts a 35% increase in oil consumption by 2030, which translates in additional requirements of 11 billion barrels of oil. Saudi Arabia is presently restructuring its economy to become a major producer of energy-intensive industrial products. Its energy consumption has increased by nearly 25% over the last 3 or 4 years. It is unlikely that the uncertainty surrounding international relations will decrease and this votes in favor of sustained prices. While the majority of the players, including the futures markets, forecast continuing price increases, some of the best known experts believe the price will inevitably drop to below $100 as recession settles in, leading to reduced demand, coupled with the introduction of biofuels and of other sources of alternative energy on a major scale. Changes in the behavior of consumers, particularly in the US, would also go in the same direction. Further, high oil prices should encourage research for new wells and technological progress in reducing extraction costs of deposits that presently are not economically exploitable. Another effect of high oil prices would be the slowing of the globalization process with preference given to local products which would not reflect higher transport costs. The tourism industry has therefore entered an era of increased uncertainty calling for a wait-and-see attitude regarding new investments. Next Event the future of Values in BusinessThursday, November 20, 2008Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: IBM Forum Amsterdam, Headquaters IBM The Netherlands, Johan Huizingalaan 765, 1066 VH Amsterdam The conference language is English. Supporter: IBMThe event is part of the Global Entrepreneurship Week Our speakers areGiuseppe Bruni, IBM Global CEO Study 2008 Program Director, Business Strategy ConsultantCEO Study 2008 Small and Medium Business Point of View Annegien Blokpoel, founder and managing director, PerspeXo and author “Maak je bedrijf meer waard”Increase the value of your company Nicolas Hardinghaus, President and CEO, Hansa Real Consultants, C.A.Strategies for Growth Moderated by Paul Hughes, Strategic Director and Partner of Lava graphic studios, Coach to the Creative Class Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com September 10: EFMN correspondents’ day 2008: Weak Signals in ForesightSeptember 10: IBC FCPUG SuperMeetJune 9 : Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030May 24: Beyond InnovationMay 24: What future coal? News about the Future carbon2go SME calculator – carbon2go calculates the carbon footprint of your business in as little as ten minutes. It covers:Utilities – consumption of electricity, water and fossil fuels such as gas and oil.Business transport – use of private and public transport, air travel and movement of freight.Staff commute – use of car, motor cycle, bus or train.Home office – the use of resources at home for the business.Other greenhouse gasses – optional for businesses that have this data. A summary of the business’ carbon emissions is produced, with those activities generating the most carbon clearly identified.  Key indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2008By Asian Development Bank Key Indicators 2008 features statistical data for 48 regional members of the Asian Development Bank, including Australia, Japan, and New Zealand. Purchasing power parity data are included, as are social, financial, external trade, infrastructure, governance, and environment indicators. The book carries nontechnical commentaries on the Millennium Development Goals. For ease of understanding, regional tables are grouped under seven themes (people; economy and output; money, finance, and prices; international flows; infrastructure; government and governance; and energy and environment). Each theme is introduced by a short, nontechnical writeup highlighting some key developments since the 1990s. Tidal power – energy from the sea Tidal power, sometimes called tidal energy, is a form of hydropower that converts the energy of tides into electricity or other useful forms of power. Although not yet widely used, tidal power has potential for future electricity generation. Tides are more predictable than wind energy and solar power. Historically, tide mills have been used, both in Europe and on the Atlantic coast of the USA. The earliest occurrences date from the Middle Ages, or even from Roman times. Tidal power is the only form of energy which derives directly from the relative motions of the Earth-Moon system, and to a lesser extent from the Earth-Sun system. Tidal energy is generated by the relative motion of the Earth, Sun and the Moon, which interact via gravitational forces. Periodic changes of water levels, and associated tidal currents, are due to the gravitational attraction by the Sun and Moon. The magnitude of the tide at a location is the result of the changing positions of the Moon and Sun relative to the Earth, the effects of Earth rotation, and the local shape of the sea floor and coastlines. SeaGen The world’s first commercial tidal stream generator — SeaGen — in Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland. The technology developed by Marine Current Turbines Ltd works much like submerged windmills, but driven by flowing water rather than air. They can be installed in the sea at places with high tidal current velocities, or in places with fast enough continuous ocean currents, to take out copious quantities of energy from these huge volumes of flowing water. The technology being deployed by MCT, known as “SeaGen” consists of twin axial flow rotors of 15m to 20m in diameter (the size depending on local site conditions), each driving a generator via a gearbox much like a hydro-electric turbine or a wind turbine. These turbines have a patented feature by which the rotor blades can be pitched through 180o in order to allow them to operate in bi-direction flows – that is on both the ebb and the flood tides. The twin power units of each system are mounted on wing-like extensions either side of a tubular steel monopile some 3m in diameter and the complete wing with its power units can be raised above sealevel to permit safe and reliable maintenance. Recommended Book The Leader’s Wayby Dalai Lama, Laurens van den Muyzenberg Why am I writing this book now? Because I feel we all should have a sincere concern and responsibility for how the global economy operates, and an interest in the role of businesses in shaping our interconnectedness. Times have changed and I believe that leaders of religious traditions – with their ability to take a long view – should participate in discussions of global business and economics. Our world faces very serious problems. Those that are of particular concern to me include how to alleviate poverty in poor countries; the fact that even in prosperous countries the sense of satisfaction with life has been stagnating since 1950; the negative impact on the environment that is a result of negligence and of our ever-increasing population and rising standards of living; and, finally, the lack of peace in many parts of the world. Because Buddhism takes a rational and logical attitude to such problems, its approach is sometimes easier to understand for those who are not religious. There is a stress on human values and particularly on the importance of motivation – how humans can be taught to take a holistic approach to solving society’s problems. This is an important contribution that Buddhism can make to these discussions. – Dalai Lama Smart Cities Professor William J. Mitchell, M.I.T.: “The research of the  Smart Cities group focuses upon intelligent, sustainable buildings, mobility systems, and cities. It explores the application of new technologies to enabling urban energy efficiency and sustainability, enhanced opportunity and equity, and cultural creativity. Buildings and cities can usefully be compared to living bodies. They have skeleton and skin systems that provide shelter and protection to their inhabitants, metabolic systems that process inputs of materials and energy to support daily life, and now artificial nervous systems consisting of sensors, networks, and ubiquitously embedded computational capacity. Smart Cities is particularly concerned with the emerging roles of networked intelligence in fabrication and construction, urban mobility, building design and intelligently responsive operation, and public space. It takes a broadly multidisciplinary approach, and is not constrained by traditional professional boundaries.” CityCar The CityCar is a stackable electric two-passenger city vehicle. The one-way sharable user model is designed to be used in dense urban areas. Vehicle Stacks will be placed throughout the city to create an urban transportation network that takes advantage of existing infrastructure such as subway and bus lines. By placing stacks in urban spaces and key points of convergence, the vehicle allows the citizens the flexibility to combine mass transit effectively with individualized mobility. The stack receives incoming vehicles and electrically charges them. Similar to luggage carts at the airport, users simply take the first fully charged vehicle at the front of the stack. The City car is NOT a replacement for personal vehicles, taxis, buses, or trucks; it is a NEW vehicle type that promotes a socially responsible and more effective means of urban mobility. CityCar The CityCar is a stackable electric two-passenger city vehicle. The one-way sharable user model is designed to be used in dense urban areas. Vehicle Stacks will be placed throughout the city to create an urban transportation network that takes advantage of existing infrastructure such as subway and bus lines. By placing stacks in urban spaces and key points of convergence, the vehicle allows the citizens the flexibility to combine mass transit effectively with individualized mobility. The stack receives incoming vehicles and electrically charges them. Similar to luggage carts at the airport, users simply take the first fully charged vehicle at the front of the stack. The City car is NOT a replacement for personal vehicles, taxis, buses, or trucks; it is a NEW vehicle type that promotes a socially responsible and more effective means of urban mobility. Mobility-on-Demand Mobility-on-Demand systems provide stacks and racks of light electric vehicles or bicycles at closely spaced intervals throughout a city. When you want to go somewhere, you simply walk to the nearest rack, swipe a card to pick up a vehicle, drive it to the rack nearest to your destination, and drop it off. SmartBiking The project, called SmartBiking, will utilize a novel self-organizing smart-tag system that will allow the city’s residents to exchange basic information and share their relative positioning with each other. The project will be implemented citywide in time for the November 2009 U.N. Climate Change Conference, which Copenhagen will host.”One of the most striking aspects of Copenhagen is that it is already a very sustainable city,” said Carlo Ratti, Director of MIT’s SENSEable City Lab, which is overseeing the Smart Biking project. “A considerable fraction of its energy comes from renewable sources and, unlike a few decades ago, 30 to 40 percent of its citizens use bicycles as their primary method of transportation.” “We have developed a Facebook application called ‘I crossed your path,’ which creates a social network for cyclists, allowing them to link up with people they may have ridden past during the day and potentially establish new connections,” explains Christine Outram, the principal research assistant on the project. The smart tags will also allow individuals to monitor the distance they travel while cycling, as part of a citywide “green mileage” initiative, which is similar to a frequent-flyer program. With the ‘green mileage’ scheme you could monitor how many miles you travel by biking and compare this with the CO2 emissions that you have not generated by taking the bus, a car or helicopter. Picture: Exploded image of rear wheel of smart bicycle being developed in collaboration with the MIT Media Lab’s Smart Cities Group. A regenerative motor is used to harvest the energy created when braking and release it while cycling, in a manner similar to hybrid cars. Futurist Portrait: Glen Hiemstra Glen Hiemstra is a futurist speaker, futurist consultant, author, blogger, internet TV show host, and Founder of  Futurist.com. Glen Hiemstra is the founder and owner of Futurist.com, a company dedicated to disseminating information about the future in order to assist individuals, organizations and industries in creating the futures they prefer. An internationally respected futurist, Glen has advised professional, business, and governmental organizations for two decades. He is the author of  Turning the Future into Revenue, from John Wiley & Sons, 2006, and is co-author of Strategic Leadership: Achieving Your Preferred Future. As an expert in preferred future planning and a popular keynote speaker, Mr. Hiemstra zeros in on emerging trends in science, technology, economics, demographics, energy, the environment, and transportation. In his mind-stretching programs, Glen goes beyond simple trend analysis to discuss the opportunities that we all have to shape a future of hope and possibility. Glen has worked with many leading companies, government agencies and organizations including Microsoft, Boeing, Adobe, Ernst & Young, PaineWebber, ShareBuilder, Ambrosetti (Italy), Club of Amsterdam, Northern Telecom, Home Depot, Weyerhaeuser, Hewlett Packard, Novo Nordisk, U.S./Mexico JWC, APAX Partners, Costa Rica Hotel Association, Atlanta 2060, Tulsa 2025, Idaho Transportation 2030, Federal Highway Administration Advanced Research, John Deere, and many others. Glen has also served as a technical advisor for futuristic television programs, working with Steven Bochco Productions (creator of “LA Law” and “Hill Street Blues,”), among others. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, US News & World Report, The Futurist, and the Los Angeles Times. Glen was selected as one of 30 global leaders to advise on the design of the General Motors & Shanghai Automotive Industry pavilion for the Shanghai 2010 exhibition, and is a member of a similar team proposing a Global Solutions pavilion for Shanghai 2010. In a first career, Glen was an award-winning professor and serves as a Visiting Scholar at the Human Interface Technology Lab at the University of Washington, which works on virtual and augmented reality technology. Mr. Hiemstra was educated at Whitworth College, the University of Oregon, and the University of Washington. He lives in Kirkland, Washington with his wife Tracie. They have three adult children. Agenda Our Season Program 2008 / 2009! November 20, 200818:30 – 21:15    the future of Values in BusinessLocation: IBM Forum Amsterdam January 22, 200918:30 – 21:15   the future of BeautyLocation: AMFI – Amsterdam Fashion Institute Febuary 19, 200918:30 – 21:15    the future of Creative AgenciesLocation: Platform 21, Prinses Irenestraat 19, 1077 WT Amsterdam March 19, 200918:30 – 21:15   the future of the BrainLocation: De Waag, Nieuwmarkt 4, 1012 CR Amsterdam [Center of the Nieuwmarkt] April 23,200918:30 – 21:15   the future of GamesLocation: May 2009    the future of BioMed June 2009   the future of ConnectivityLocation: London Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join ouronline platform …

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, November 2008, Issue 111

Content 2020 Future seen from 2015: Futurist Mobile WorldNext EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureWearable TechnologyA Federated Model for a New EconomyRecommended BookCopenhagen Consensus 2008Futurist Portrait: Derek WoodgateAgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.Prof. Dr. Nicolas Hardinghaus, President and CEO, Hansa Real Consultants, C.A. and speaker at our next event:“What could we understand as values of capitalism? Profitability? Pecuniary rewards? Financial independence, even might? Associated to virtues as self determination, valour, bravery, guts?Are these values suffering alteration in or after the financial markets crisis? Turn to greed and frivoulness?Which will be the foreseeable consequences: Regulation instead of deregulation, public ownership instead of private ownership, supervision instead of laissez-faire. Rebirth of state intervention.Consequences for the so called real economy. Don’t make money with money.Is a return to the former, the “old” system (“ancient regime”) thinkable?Another Bretton Woods? Another Gold Or Commodities Standard?After the downfall of the “real existing socialism”, is now the end of capitalism in sight?Money and Mystery, money and eschatological prophecy. Cool down or the ultimate collapse of world finance system? Outlook. “ In case you would like to hear more and also share your thoughts, visit our next event about  the future of Values in Business  on November 20.Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief 2020 Future seen from 2015: Futurist Mobile World Dr Patrick Dixon is often described in the media as Europe’s leading Futurist and has been ranked as one of the 20 most influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50 – 2005). Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Next Event the future of Values in BusinessThursday, November 20, 2008Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: IBM Forum Amsterdam, Headquaters IBM The Netherlands, Johan Huizingalaan 765, 1066 VH AmsterdamThe conference language is English. Supporter: IBMThe event is part of the Global Entrepreneurship Week Our speakers areGiuseppe Bruni, IBM Global CEO Study 2008 Program Director, Business Strategy ConsultantCEO Study 2008 Small and Medium Business Point of View Annegien Blokpoel, founder and managing director, PerspeXo and author “Maak je bedrijf meer waard”Increase the value of your company Nicolas Hardinghaus, President and CEO, Hansa Real Consultants, C.A.Strategies for Growth Moderated by Paul Hughes, Strategic Director and Partner of Lava graphic studios, Coach to the Creative Class Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com September 10: EFMN correspondents’ day 2008: Weak Signals in ForesightSeptember 10: IBC FCPUG SuperMeetJune 9 : Pakistan in the 21st Century: Vision 2030May 24: Beyond InnovationMay 24: What future coal? News about the Future mindsetmindset is an independent concept in the area of electro and hybrid automobiles. Neither a city car, nor an SUV or a sports car. mindset is as unique as it is self-explanatory: a light, powerful and efficient commuter for those day-to-day journeys. Its high heels (i.e. its large, slim wheels) take the aerodynamic coupé body up to eye level with the main traffic. Whether alone, or in company, with babies and bags, cats and dogs – you can get in and out easily and keep an eye on what’s going on whilst moving on swiftly and pleasantly. Its calm appearance projects power without aggression. That’s what mindset understand by a contemporary hybrid automobile. Honda Unveils New Robot Walker Honda Motor Company has displayed for the first time a new computerized walker machine, designed to help factory workers and the elderly.The machine which weighs 6.5 kilos, has a saddle, leg-frames and shoes. It reduces the weight of a user’s legs making it easier to climb and descend stairs, as well as carry out difficult crouching positions. A user sits on the saddle puts on the shoes, and pushes a start button, which then moves the users legs. The device is driven by a computer, has a motor and gears, and battery powered sensors that respond to a user’s movements.Honda says it will start using the machine at a factory in Japan.The device is also expected help elderly people. Japan has a rapidly aging population and also leads the world in robot technology. Wearable Technology “At CuteCircuit we are working on making technology that is more usable, emotionally fulfilling, and fun! We think that wearables will be the future tool for personal communication. Like a dynamic surface around our bodies able to connect us to people and places. The most used communication tool today is the mobile phone, we believe that the wearable technology and the telecommunication market will merge in a not very distant future. Many of our wearables are compatible via Bluetooth with mobile phones, this allows for a faster deployment and adoption of this technology. CuteCircuit wearables are beautiful and pleasant to wear: no loose wires, no hard shells, and no backpacks full of batteries or visible technology (unless for decoration). We pay great attention to details and technological solutions in a sartorial view of technology. For each project you will see highlights of the design process that will help identify the skills and methodology that our team applied during the development of the product. The wearable technologies that we develop are RoHS compliant, it means that no lead or mercury are present in the garments. We design technology that is safe for both the wearer and the environment.” Projects PLEATPLEAT is a collection of garments featuring hand-made heat-formed textiles. The collection features a waterproof jacket, with a layer of pleated organza covering a sleeve and part of the front, a pleated dress where the pleats can be reversed to make the dress more or less tight on the body, and a skirt, embroidered with heat-formed pockets. The heat-formed textiles reatain their shape even when they are stressed by daily use of the garments or after washing. Hug ShirtThe Hug Shirt is a wearable Bluetooth accessory for your mobile phone. The Hug Shirt allows to exchange the physical sensation of being hugged over distance through telecommunication networks KineticDressThe KineticDress is part of the Transfor-Me collection developed for the NEMO Science museum in Amsterdam. The KineticDress changes color and pattern depending on the activity of the wearer. SkirteleonThe Skirteleon is part of the Transfor-Me collection developed for the NEMO Science museum in Amsterdam. The Skirteleon changes color and pattern “on-demand” depending on the activities and mood of the wearer during the course of the day. MystiqueThe Mystique Dress is part of the Transfor-Me collection developed for the NEMO Science museum in Amsterdam. The Mystique Dress changes shape and color depending on the time of the day increasing in length from morning to night. A-NerveThe Accessory Nerve is a Bluetooth wearable accessory for mobile phones. When the Accessory Nerve receives an incoming call the fabric pleats on the sleeve change pattern. Embedded TheaterEmbedded Theater is a wearable augmented-reality device. The Embedded Theater analyzes the user location and direction of sight and the system delivers audio narrative and navigational information. A Federated Model for a New Economy By Mauro Forcolin,Jeroen Hermans,Micheal Meurer,Floris Snuif This essay was originally produced in October 2007, when fours students of the Hallo Academy in Amsterdam were asked to analyze the future of economy. Prior to expert warnings about systemic flaws in the banking system and the current economic crisis, trends already pointed to a severe downturn. Even at that time, it was clear that the credit expansion – unfolding without proper safeguards and based only on an unfounded sense of trust – was unsustainable. This led to the provocation: What will happen when it all finally collapses and people no longer trust the institutions charged with managing the economic system, nor value the currencies they promote? Current trends in the housing markets in the US and elsewhere have exposed the weaknesses in the fiat monetary system in place since the collapse of the Bretton-Woods system. Investors are increasingly looking at other alternatives to currencies, such as precious metals. As trends continue, the current economic system will collapse. This will result in mistrust among the general public for what they perceive to be currencies with an arbitrary dictated value, as well as a mistrust of the overarching establishments which govern those currencies. There will be a need for a universal currency, which is directly aligned to society who will use it and can evolve with the society as well. Precious metals, although having some practical applications, have a value based on physical scarcity which is less and less relevant in an increasingly virtual and data-driven world. Water on the other hand is predicted to become increasingly scarce and is also necessary for human survival, but it is not easily portable. The new currency will become the skills and knowledge people possess. Skills and knowledge can be acquired and services based on them can be provided to others. People sharing the same skill sets will have an understanding of the quality, or value of the skills an individual possesses. But people not involved in that area, will not have such a clear understanding of this. In order for them to grasp it without having to delve into that particular industry or field, they will have to rely on the opinion of someone they trust to validate it. This is no different to the way transactions occur in the world today. Organic societies of people with similar skill sets will be formed. These people can vouch for the other members of the society and thereby develop reputations and trust in the value the claim to have. Interaction with other societies to trade from other services will happen through a so-called trusted “weak link”, which is the basis for social networks such as LinkedIn or Facebook. Although such a system works well in small numbers, it is difficult to expand it over a global economy as there are limitations to the amount of relations a single person can maintain and there would be an excessive time delay when hopping across weak links to get to the desired society. The ability for technology to manage such relations would allow for the development of a Federated Model for a New Economy. Rather than having to rely on specific weak links, societies can agree on terms for establishing a common baseline to gauge the values for their different skill sets. This way someone in one society can have a trusted rating of the quality of those skills. With such an integrated baseline, a common system of credits can be established with which to “pay” for services. As these credits are not backed by a physical standard, someone could “invent” credits they don’t have to pay for services. But this kind of fraud would have a detrimental affect on the society someone belongs to, and their own ratings would suffer as their reputation did. For this reason, it would be in their best interests to find the culprit and remove them from their society, essentially placing them in an economic exile. To mitigate this, the same technology that maintains the credit system would also ensure completely transparent transactions across societies and people. People would of course belong to any number of societies, as value creators, consumers and residents, with each society being federated across others (Fig 1). It would be extremely difficult for a single individual to be able to keep on top of the various interactions and societies. They might take on the services of a professional to manage their “investments”, that is the societies they choose to belong to and the associated costs for remaining there. Figure 1: Federated Model for a New Economy Such a federated system is extremely democratic, and the same technology used for maintaining the credit and transactions system would make referendums feasible. Such referendums would allow individuals to have a direct say in negotiating the terms, maintaining and policing the interactions their society has with other societies through the federated model. It would be useful in managing how individuals manage or remain part of a particular society. As the management of such interactions become increasingly complex, people might not want the burden of having to participate in all the referendums which may apply to them. To manage this, representatives can be elected at all the various societal levels where such a representation makes sense. This removes the need for “nations” based on physical locations; every individual would be sovereign and be able to choose which societal associations to make. As people would also belong to a society of consumers, the brand will grow to target all aspects of a consumer society. Producers would no longer exist alone, but would partner with others to complete the brand landscape for a consumer society. As consumer societies can grow, merge and evolve, so too would the brands that relate to them. The complete flexibility created in the consumer and producer societies would be somewhat limited in the resident societies since individuals have to physically live somewhere. Movement is virtual in the consumer and producer societies, whereas physical movement in resident societies has an additional cost which may be limiting. Nevertheless, the ability for a particular resident society itself to grow, evolve and relate with others would be based on true communal similarities and benefit, not archaic national divisions. In the future, as now, skills and knowledge will be of ultimate value. The collapse of the existing economy will introduce a lack of trust in the current currency system and its governing bodies. This will give rise to skills and knowledge being the new global currency. With the application of technology and the newly defined currency, traditional localised trust-based economies can be extended to a global federated model. Such a model would allow for a truly democratic representation of the individual and the freedom to belong and associate with a society of their choice. Consumer societies will define the target that producers wish relate to and in turn producers will align together to provide an entire brand landscape or them. And finally, resident societies will form relate with one another for true communal benefit. Recommended Book How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of “Intangibles” in Businessby Douglas W. Hubbard (Author) From market forecasts to information technology risks to financial reporting, How to Measure Anything reveals the power of measurement to our understanding of business and the world at large. This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business that, until now, you may have considered “immeasurable,” including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI. With case studies ranging from how a marine biologist measures the population of fish in a large lake to how the United States Marine Corps found out what really matters in forecasting fuel requirements for the battlefield, readers are introduced to a “universal approach” to measuring “intangibles,” along with some interesting methods for particular problems. Copenhagen Consensus 2008 The  Copenhagen Consensus exercise started as a simple but untested idea of prioritizing global opportunities. In 2004, the process was carried out for the very first time and ended with a successful list, compiled by some of the world’s top economists, attracting attention from all over the world. Since 2004, the Copenhagen Consensus Center has carried out several similar exercises, e.g. for UN ambassadors in 2006 and in Latin America. The ambition is to carry through a global Copenhagen Consensus exercise every fourth year similar to the Olympics. This ensures that new, important challenges and solutions are included in the process and that research is updated. Copenhagen Consensus 2008 The expert panel of 8 economists, including 5 Nobel Laureates, ranked the following list: Solution Challenge 1 Micronutrient supplements for children (vitamin A and zinc) Malnutrition 2 The Doha development agenda Trade 3 Micronutrient fortification (iron and salt iodization) Malnutrition 4 Expanded immunization coverage for children Diseases 5 Biofortification Malnutrition 6 Deworming and other nutrition programs at school Malnutrition & Education 7 Lowering the price of schooling Education 8 Increase and improve girls’ schooling Women 9 Community-based nutrition promotion Malnutrition 10 Provide support for women’s reproductive role Women 11 Heart attack acute management Diseases 12 Malaria prevention and treatment Diseases 13 Tuberculosis case finding and treatment Diseases 14 R&D in low-carbon energy technologies Global Warming 15 Bio-sand filters for household water treatment Water 16 Rural water supply Water 17 Conditional cash transfers Education 18 Peace-keepingin post-conflict situations Conflicts 19 HIV combination prevention Diseases 20 Total sanitation campaign Water 21 Improving surgical capacity at district hospital level Diseases 22 Microfinance Women 23 Improved stove intervention Air Pollution 24 Large, multipurpose dam in Africa Water 25 Inspection and maintenance of diesel vehicles Air Pollution 26 Low sulfur diesel for urban road vehicles Air Pollution 27 Diesel vehicle particulate control technology Air Pollution 28 Tobacco tax Diseases 29 R&D and mitigation Global Warming 30 Mitigation only Global Warming Futurist Portrait: Derek Woodgate Derek Woodgate, President,  The Futures Lab, an international Futures-based consultancy. With experience as an executive on the board of two major corporations and over 15 years Senior Vice-President-level management and operational responsibilities in international businesses, Derek is widely recognized as a global specialist in marketing, innovation, business and futures-based consulting. He is currently on the Board of The American Center for Entrepreneurship, and on the Operating Committee of the Digital Convergence Initiative. In January 1998, Derek set up The Futures Lab, a futures-based consultancy, specializing in leveraging future potential, innovation, category redefinition and repositioning of major brands and businesses. The Futures Lab has helped many major global corporations across a myriad of categories. Derek has lived and worked in eleven countries and is at home in seven languages (English, Croatian, French, Italian, Bulgarian, Russian and Dutch). He graduated with a Bachelor Degree (Hons.) from University College London, in Contemporary Slav Studies and then gained his Masters in Economics – (concentration in politics) from Zagreb University, a city where he spent over ten years. He is a frequent conference speaker, panelist and commentator on the future, particularly with regard to the changing global economy, emerging industries, youth culture and marketing and its relevance to the future business landscape. Derek is a prolific writer on future-related topics, his latest book “Future Frequencies,” was published in 2004, and he is currently writing for a new release entitled “Future Flow”. He also contributed to the major work on Burroughs “Calling the Toads”. Derek is a founding member and a board member of the Association of Professional Futurists, a member of The World Futures Society, The World Futures Studies Federation and is also on the Regional Vision and Strategy Committee for Austin 2020. Agenda Our Season Program 2008 / 2009! November 20, 200818:30-21:15   the future of Values in BusinessLocation: IBM Forum Amsterdam January 22, 200918:30-21:15   the future of BeautyLocation: AMFI – Amsterdam Fashion Institute Febuary 19, 200918:30-21:15   the future of Creative AgenciesLocation: Platform 21, Prinses Irenestraat 19, 1077 WT Amsterdam March 19, 200918:30-21:15   the future of the BrainLocation: De Waag, Nieuwmarkt 4, 1012 CR Amsterdam April 23, 200918:30-21:15   the future of GamesLocation: May 2009   the future of BioMed June 2009   the future of ConnectivityLocation: London Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, January 2009, Issue 112

Content Quotes about BeautyNext EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureThe Mixed Reality LabRecommended BookFutureHotelFuturist Portrait: Jim Carroll Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. Beauty is an evolutionary concept.With our next event we aim to give an overview at the different aspects and interpretation points of what is considered beauty.Demystifying and pinpointing the issues and various perspectives on the concept of beauty.That define and shape contemporary beauty in fields of fashion, cosmetics and wellbeing / fitness-health. In case you would like to hear more and also share your thoughts, visit our next event about the future of Beauty on January 22. Quotes about Beauty “Beauty?… To me it is a word without sense because I do not know where its meaning comes from nor where it leads to.” ~ Pablo Picasso “Everything has beauty, but not everyone sees it.” ~ Confucius “Beauty is not in the face; beauty is a light in the heart.” ~ Kahlil Gibran “Beauty comes as much from the mind as from the eye.” ~ Grey Livingston ” Fashion is merely a form of ugliness so unbearable that we are compelled to alter it ever six months.” ~ Oscar Wilde “Perfect sincerity and transparency make a great part of beauty, as in dewdrops, lakes, and diamonds.” ~ Henry David Thoreau “A woman who cannot be ugly is not beautiful.” ~ Karl Kraus “You can take no credit for beauty at sixteen. But if you are beautiful at sixty, it will be your soul’s own doing.” ~ Marie Stopes “The first question I ask myself when something doesn’t seem to be beautiful is why do I think it’s not beautiful. And very shortly you discover that there is no reason.” ~ John Cage “Beauty is an ecstasy; it is as simple as hunger. There is really nothing to be said about it. It is like the perfume of a rose: you can smell it and that is all.” ~ William Somerset Maugham “Everybody needs beauty as well as bread, places to play in and pray in, where nature may heal and give strength to body and soul.” ~ John Muir “Some people, no matter how old they get, never lose their beauty – they merely move it from their faces into their hearts.” ~ Martin Buxbaum “It is amazing how complete is the delusion that beauty is goodness.” ~ Leo Tolstoy “I don’t like standard beauty – there is no beauty without strangeness.” ~ Karl Lagerfeld “The fact of the matter is that you can use your beauty and use your charm and be flirtatious, and you can get people interested in your beauty. But you cannot maintain that. In the end, talent is the only thing. My work is the only thing that’s going to change any minds.” ~ Madonna Yves Saint Laurent infused his label with his creative genius, elegant and refined personality, discreet and distinguished, during a half century of work, in both luxury and ready-to-wear, because he was convinced that beauty was a necessary luxury for all men and all women. “Love of Beauty is taste, Creation of beauty is Art.” ~ Ralph Waldo Emerson “Fashion has two purposes: comfort and love. Beauty comes when fashion succeeds.” ~ Coco Chanel “A man should hear a little music, read a little poetry, and see a fine picture every day of his life, in order that worldly cares may not obliterate the sense of the beautiful which God has implanted in the human soul.” ~ Johann Wolfgang von Goethe “People are like stained glass windows: they sparkle and shine when the sun is out, but when the darkness sets in their true beauty is revealed only if there is a light within.” ~ Elizabeth Kubler-Ross“Beauty is one of the rare things that do not lead to doubt of God.” ~ Jean Anouilh “Anything in any way beautiful derives its beauty from itself and asks nothing beyond itself. Praise is no part of it, for nothing is made worse or better by praise.” ~ Marcus Aurelius “Beauty of whatever kind, in its supreme development, invariably excites the sensitive soul to tears.” ~ Edgar Allen Poe “It is not sufficient to see and to know the beauty of a work. We must feel and be affected by it.” ~ Voltaire Next Event the future of BeautyThursday, January 22, 2009Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15 Where: AMFI-Amsterdam Fashion Institute, Mauritskade 11, 1091 GC Amsterdam, Near corner Wibautstraat / MauritskadeThe conference language is English. Supporters:AMFI-Amsterdam Fashion Institute, Innergy Creations, Amsterdam International Fashion Week, Instituut voor Media en Informatie Management – HvA Our speakers are Sabina Huf, Beautydesk, Sanoma MagazinesBeauty sells Marc Deurloo, PhotographerBeauty of being different Zoltan Kruppa, Plastic Surgeon, Medea Medisch Esthetisch InstituutFuture of plastic surgery Francesca Bona Demichelis, Director, Bona Consulting sprl, BelgiumFree(d) to Be Moderated by James Veenhoff, Programme Director, Amsterdam International Fashion Week, Partner, Fronteer Strategy Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com January 5: It HappenedJanuary 5: The Real Truth About Beauty: A Global Report News about the Future World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009 By UNCTADGrowth in world gross product (WGP) is expected to slow to 1.0 per cent in 2009, a sharp deceleration from the rate of 2.5 per cent estimated for 2008 and well below the more robust pace in previous years. While most developed economies are expected to be in a deep recession, a vast majority of developing countries is experiencing a sharp reversal in the robust growth registered in the period of 2002-2007, indicating a significant setback in the progress made in poverty reduction for many developing countries over the past few years. The prospects for the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which did so well on average over the past years, are also deteriorating rapidly. Income per capita for the world as whole is expected to decline in 2009.The report analyzes in detail the evolution of the global financial crisis during 2008 and the more fundamental factors that led to its build-up. It further assesses the impact on global economic activity, especially in developing countries. The synchronized slowdown in both rich and poor countries is further evidence that the until recently widely held belief that developing country growth would have been ‘decoupled’ from that in the United States and Europe was dangerously misleading. The report also reviews the policy actions so far taken worldwide in response to the global financial crisis.  2008 Digital Future ReportThe Center for the Digital Future at the USC Annenberg School is pleased to present the results of the seventh year of our project, “Surveying the Digital Future.” The seven years of longitudinal research comprise an absolutely unique data base that completely captures broadband at home, the wireless Internet, on-line media, user-generated content and, now, social networking.This year’s report contains a large module looking at on-line communities and social networking in great detail. Readers can compare the social networking data and correlate it to seven years of attitudes and behaviors on-line. The Mixed Reality Lab The  Mixed Reality Lab, at the National University of Singapore, is aiming to push the boundaries of research into interactive new media technologies through the combination of technology, art, and creativity. We have produced large scale technological deliverables for DSTA and the Singapore military in interactive human computer systems. We have spun off companies such as Brooklyn-Media, and MXR-Cubes. Brooklyn-media is commercializing systems for digital games and mobile entertainment using novel interactive technologies. Some Projects Age InvadersThe cultural and generation gaps between the young and old have been growing in our modern age. This project introduces Age Invaders, a novel social physical game which allows the elderly to play harmoniously together with children in physical space. To design good games which are accessible for both children and the elderly can not only bridge the generational gap but also promote the elderly’s mental and physical vitality. Babbage CabbageBabbage Cabbage is a new form of empathetic living media used to communicate social or ecological information in the form of a living slow media feedback display. In the fast paced modern world people are generally too busy to monitor various significant social or human aspects of their lives, such as time spent with their family, their overall health, state of the ecology, etc. By quantifying such information digitally, information is coupled into living plants, providing a media that connects with the user in a way that traditional electronic digital media can not. An impedance match is made to couple important information in the world with the output media, relating these issues to the color changing properties of the living red cabbage. BlogWallBlogWall extends the short message service (SMS) to a new level of self-expression and public communication by combining art and poetry. Furthermore it will provide a means of expression in the language that young people understand, and the forms of social communication, which is an essential part of their lives. The application enables a person not only to express herself artistically but also entertain the masses. The user stands in front of the BlogWall and send a SMS to the given mobile number. In the basic mode the application will only display SMS on a projector screen in an animated manner. The application consists of a polling mode which enables it to gather data from the public. In the poetry mode a poem will be created with the means of the user SMS. The extension of this poetry mode is the creation of “Haiku” (haiku is a mode of Japanese poetry). Initial version of this project is installed in the iSpace at Singapore Science center. Classical Meets MediaIn Classical Music Meets Interactive Media, The main goal of this project is linking classical music and visual art through a real-time processing on a violin performance. A meaningful 3D visualization will be correspondence within the original thinking of the composer after an exhaustive analysis of the score for the concert attending to the different parameters of the music language: harmony, counterpoint, instrumentation, formal analysis, style and background of the composer. The violin performer’s expression will be interacting with the music and the 3D visualization to create an interactive visual art in real-time. Confucius ComputerConfucius Computer is a new form of illogical computing algorithm based on the Eastern paradigms of balance and harmony, which are radically different from the ancient Greek logic normally experienced in computing. The system uses new media to revive and model these historical philosophies and teachings, presenting them in new contexts, such as online social chat, music and food. This enables people to experience and explore the ancient culture using the literacy of digital interactivity. Recommended Book Uncontrollable Beauty: Toward a New Aestheticsby Bill Beckley (Editor), David Shapiro (Editor) What ever happened to beauty? Since the late 1960s she seems to have been in exile. Postmodern artists traded her in for flirtations with truth, strength, and purity of form. It was then that women started stripping off their heavy makeup and Barbie doll clothing in an effort to gain equal footing with men. And men, anxious too to break some of society’s molds, shed their business suits and leisurewear — then the paragons of male beauty. But as art critic Dave Hickey unwittingly predicted during the ’80s, that quality — which Plato believed to be eternal and absolute — is the “issue of the ’90s.” After three decades of playing wallflower because she was thought by many artists to be frivolous, easy, tired, and even shallow, beauty is dancing again. Uncontrollable Beauty is filled with exciting essays by artists, critics, curators, and philosophers whose definitions of this elusive quality are often at odds with the Platonic ideal. When beauty besets critic Peter Schjeldahl, his mind is “hyperalert,” his body eases, and he is often aware of his “shoulders coming down as unconscious muscular tension lets go.” Renowned sculptor Louise Bourgeois also experiences beauty as opposed to encountering it: “Beauty is a series of experiences. It is not a noun … beauty in and of itself does not exist.” Artist and coeditor Bill Beckley blames beauty’s banishment on Wittgenstein — who, in a 1938 lecture at Cambridge, said that beauty is most often meant as an interjection “similar to Wow! or rubbing one’s stomach” — and his undue influence on conceptual artists of the ’60s and ’70s. Each essay collected here is rigorous in its definition of this elusive yet powerful force in art and aesthetics. Taken together, the writings are an invigorating read for artists and viewers alike FutureHotel In the innovation project  FutureHotel, Fraunhofer IAO develops scenarios and solutions for the hotel sector. Trend analysis, user surveys, scientific studies and best practise research provide a basis. The following targets characterise the work in the network of FutureHotel: future proof concepts holistic solutions profitable solutions praxis-oriented and short-term realisation increasing efficiency and efficiency of processes competitive advantage for the partner companies public perception innovation lead and scientific neutrality This future observation shall serve the project partners as a decision guidance and provide an established basis for a future compatible strategy development and, at the same time, be a guard rail and signpost for the further development of the hotel sector. Future Development and Operation of the inHaus-NextHotelLabAs »built vision« and showcase for the scenario project FutureHotel, theresearch platform NextHotelLab in the inHaus-Centre Duisburg especially serves as the FutureHotelLab for prototypical application and demonstration of project contents. Aims: visualisation and validation of project contents on the basis of realprototypes.Useful result: partners can use approaches and products realised in the NextHotelLab and also use them as a reference. In addition, the NextHotelLab offers the project partners an exclusive platform for the presentation and evaluation of own products, system solutions and concepts. Futurist Portrait: Jim Carroll International futurist, trends, innovation expert  Jim Carroll has spoken to thousands of media representatives through the years, providing his unique blend of insight into global economic trends, as well as business, workplace, lifestyle, demographic, and career issues. He has provided his insight in dozens of books, in over 600 articles, and in over 3,000 interviews on radio, television and in print, with media exposure and interviews with ABC News, BusinessWeek, INC, Fast Company, CNBC, the South China Morning Post (Hong Kong), American Way, The Age (Sydney, Australia), CAPITAL Magazine (Dubai/United Arab Emirates) CEO Magazine Hungary, Association LEADERSHIP, the National Post and PROFIT. Jim has also: hosted 3 national radio shows, which included all content development hosted a new “innovation” channel for a major online media portal put together almost a dozen customer interview Webcasts for SAP, one of the world’s largest software companies “10 Great Words” Agenda Our Season Program 2008 / 2009! January 22, 200918:30-21:15   the future of BeautyLocation: AMFI – Amsterdam Fashion Institute Febuary 19, 200918:30-21:15   the future of Creative AgenciesLocation: Platform 21, Prinses Irenestraat 19, 1077 WT Amsterdam March 19, 200918:30-21:15   the future of the BrainLocation: De Waag, Nieuwmarkt 4, 1012 CR Amsterdam April 23, 200918:30-21:15   the future of GamesLocation: May 2009    the future of BioMed June 2009   the future of ConnectivityLocation: London Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …

the future of the Brain, March 2009

Club of Amsterdam pdf version Supporter Waag Society Presentations Antonino Raffone, PhD, Researcher in Cognitive Neuroscience, “Sapienza” University of Rome and RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Japan click here Rob van Kranenburg, Innovation and Media Theorist click here For a long period of time brain researchers told us that our brains are not malleable. A person would be the same at 7 and 70. Recent technological developments allowed scientists to have “a closer look” AT the brain. These days, as Einstein’s relativity theory peaks IN popularity among ordinary people, researches conclude that the brain is actually malleable. But how do we define this plasticity? How do we change our brains? Does placing electrodes to our heads for brain feedback OFFER a solution to persistent problems such as drug addiction, aggression or obsessions? Present technologies offer a level of happiness that can be achieved through years of meditation. Could this be a solution to the illnesses our societies suffer as A RESULT of wrongs we have committed through a greedy relationship with technology? Aren’t we all sharing an overwhelming feeling that our societies are heading IN a wrong direction? Could using science and technology the “right way” be an answer to our critical questions? Concept: Iclal Akcay, moderator Antonino Raffone, PhD, Researcher in Cognitive Neuroscience, “Sapienza” University of Rome and RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Japan Neural correlates of meditation states and traits There is an impressive growth of interest in the world about neural correlates of meditation states and traits, as related to cognitive and affective neuroplasticity, as well as psychotherapy and human well-being. This talk will review key-findings in this area, with special reference to research involving long-term Buddhist meditation practitioners. The findings in a recent neuroimaging investigation by dr. Raffone and collaborators, will then presented, and their implications discussed in light of current theories of attention and awareness. Venerable Kaye Miner, Maitreya Institute Amsterdam Consciousness at the Crossroads or Mind in Tibetan Buddhism Mind or consciousness is a particularly elusive phenomenon because it is not perceptible by the senses or even the finest instruments. Therefore mind is considered a hidden or particularly hidden phenomena. Buddhist philosophy has developed an instrument that can show the presence and function of the mind. This is a highly developed, well considered method of reliable reasoning. Using meditation, a method to investigate or research the mind in its own laboratory, valid reasoning is used to develop knowledge of the function and operation of the mind. Viona Wijnen, PhD, Neuropsychologist and Researcher, Alpha-Up | Brain Balancing Institute, Amsterdam How the brain can heal itself – The promise of neurofeedback Viona Wijnen’s research interests involve psychosomatic (Mind/Body) medicine, neurophysiological reactivity and brain plasticity. She will discuss the state of the art knowledge on the brain’s capabilities to change and adapt constantly as a result of environmental stimuli and demands. Specifically, her focus will be on neurofeedback: a revolutionary neurotherapy that devotes itself to training control over electro-chemical processes in the human brain and that has shown to be efficacious for a wide variety of psychological and psychosomatic diseases. Rob van Kranenburg, Innovation and Media Theorist Brainspace There is a tendency to think that we are going forward, going towards situations yet to be formed and discovered. This is governed by a teleology that is at odds with the way we seem to immerse ourselves in digital connectivity. You’d think we respond intuitively to something lost in the first place; our being grounded while being mobile, our being at home in various places and locations, our sense of ubiquity, of the ubiquity of signs and modes of experience that seems ever more natural, more human. The swiftness and speed of the communicative response to the digital, what can it be but the sensual recognition of our intrinsic abilities to experience thought and alchemistic (read: growth and change) processes directly and intuitively? So lets imagine that once we had one brainspace as we have seem to have one world now that we all ‘see’. 19:00 – 20:00 Introduction by our Moderator Iclal Akcay, Research Journalist Part I: Antonino Raffone, PhD, Researcher in Cognitive Neuroscience, “Sapienza” University of Rome and RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Japan Neural correlates of meditation states and traits Venerable Kaye Miner, Maitreya Institute Amsterdam Consciousness at the Crossroads or Mind in Tibetan Buddhism Viona Wijnen, PhD, Neuropsychologist and Researcher, Alpha-Up | Brain Balancing Institute, Amsterdam How the brain can heal itself – The promise of neurofeedback Rob van Kranenburg, Innovation and Media Theorist Brainspace 20:00 – 20:30 Coffee break with drinks and snacks. 20:30 – 21:15 Part II: Open discussion Impressions