by EC Directorate-General Information Society Introduction At the beginning of the 21st century, the potential for information society technologies (IST) to enhance human lives has never been greater. For the economy, IST is central to the “race to knowledge” on which improved productivity and competitiveness depend. The IST industry itself is one of the largest economic sectors, while IST innovations underpin growth in many other markets. In public services, IST enables services to be delivered more efficiently, as well as new services that correspond to people’s evolving needs. And for society at large, IST improves citizens’ quality of life, by offering goods and services that did not exist previously or by improving access to those already available. IST may also play a vital role in helping Europe to tackle the new challenges we see emerging. With enlargement, the number of EU citizens will almost double over the next five years. The EU will have to accommodate, and turn into assets, the further social, economic, cultural and religious diversity this brings. It also has to address the “productivity challenge”: how to create wealth and prosperity in an enlarged Europe. European businesses should be able to take full advantage of technology development, mainly in IST, to adapt and benefit from the emerging networked business environment. Europe needs to improve its competitiveness and develop higher value products and services whilst ensuring a sustainable future. After recent events, security issues remain high on the political agenda and in citizens’ concerns. Also, with the aging pyramid set to be reversed by around 2010, we have to come to terms with our “greying” population and its implications for the economy, and society as a whole. Against this background, in Lisbon in 2000 the EU gave itself ten years to become the world’s most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy, addressing simultaneously three objectives: competitiveness, employment and social cohesion. In Barcelona last year, one of the tools needed to achieve this was clearly delineated – to boost European research spending to 3% of GDP by 2010. Three Pillars for the Information Society The European Union’s policy for the information society is at the heart of the Lisbon strategy. Its goal is to enable Europe to take full advantage of IST and to contribute to their progress within an inclusive, knowledge society for all. Information society policy is based on three interlinked pillars. Firstly, it supports policies for the wider deployment and adoption of IST products and services. Over recent years efforts here have focused on eEurope, as well as the direct support to deployment initiatives such as eContent and eTEN. Community actions under the eEurope 2002 Action Plan have enabled a high and rapid growth in internet connectivity in Europe. In 2002, more than 90% of schools and businesses were already online and more than half of Europeans were regular users. Many more government services are available online and European researchers now benefit from the world’s fastest research network. Building on these achievements, the eEurope 2005 Action Plan targets further measures to stimulate services, applications and content. The second pillar is a new regulatory framework covering all services or networks that transmit communications electronically, which became applicable from 25 July 2003. This aims to develop and reinforce the single market, by promoting competition and safeguarding public and user interests across the communications sector. In e-commerce, the series of directives adopted are providing a more secure environment for e-commerce transactions, in particular cross-border trade, and ensuring an adequate level of consumer protection. Research and development in IST, so as to ensure the mastering of technology and its applications, is the third pillar. Research supported at Community level has been instrumental in establishing and maintaining industrial and technology leadership in key fields such as mobile communications microelectronics, microsystems and consumer electronics. Europe has been, and remains, most successful in those areas where industry and the research community have built strong RTD collaborations at a European level, and where the research effort has been well articulated with deployment and regulatory initiatives. Such joined-up thinking is needed now more than ever. Today, a new generation of IST is emerging driven by the convergence of computing, communications and knowledge technologies. This next wave of technologies will open the door to new devices and systems that will enable people and objects (artefacts) to interact in totally new ways. It will spawn new applications and services that will help build an all-inclusive knowledge society and economy. A sustained effort in IST research, linked to parallel efforts on deployment and regulation, is essential to ensure European leadership in these technologies and to enable all Europe’s citizens and enterprises to benefit from their development. You can download the full book as a *.pdf file [2113KB]: click here
by Institute for the Future August 2003 Anywhere, Anytime, Any Device This report focuses on four new entertainment media: Web logging (blogging), digital music, massively multiplayer online games, and alternate reality games. Why entertainment media? Entertainment media offer a safe place for people to experiment with new practices and methods of communications. Social innovations in interactive and cooperative practices and in identity and presence management are diverse and part of the process of play. By observing what is happening in the world of play and entertainment, businesses have a unique opportunity to get an early warning about how workplace practices will transform as a result of workers learning new modes of interaction, collaboration, and presence management from entertainment media. The report is available at the Institute for the Future:http://www.iftf.org/features/reports.html
Content Q&A with Jonathan Marks About the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry News about the Future Ambient Intelligence Learning Economies Recommended Book The Club of Amsterdam Round Table: Wanda van Kerkvoorden Questionnaire about the future of Food & Biotech Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Q&A with Jonathan Marks Jonathan Marks, Critical Distance BV Club of Amsterdam: Electronic media has been going through a rough patch lately. What can be learned from the downturn?Jonathan Marks: I think it depends on where you are in Europe. Danish public broadcasting has carved itself an excellent market share in a small market. They have fully integrated web, radio and TV production and have worked hard to win over audiences. They drive the digital TV innovation and they are making important inroads with digital radio and audio on demand. Ten years ago, Denmarks Radio was the dinosaur of Europe. Now they are an example of how public broadcasting should be. Similarly, in some of the southern European countries, Spain and Portugal have digitized their archives and see themselves as the curator of national culture.Any country, who’s public broadcasting system is driven by government, technology or structural inertia is going to fail – probably in the short term. That’s the case in Hungary when politicians are meddling. I believe that Holland’s domestic public broadcasting system is on the verge of creative bankruptcy, where broadcasting organisations are being given impossible mission to profile AND work together. The answer is NOT the BBC model – unless Holland is planning to spend 4 billion Euro and employ 26,000 people. At that scale, of course some bits produce some jewels of programming. Instead, Holland needs to look at the UK’s Channel 4 system of clearly defining the role of a channel and commissioning content from independent producers (who could be some of what are now called “omroepen”. At the moment though, the Dutch broadcasting model has become the laughing stock of Europe – 5 years behind, when it used to be 5 years ahead.Internet & websites is becoming mature, its not something on its own. It is part of a cross media approach which successful broadcasters (both commercial and public) are building on week by week. Can you share some brief thoughts about how different generations consume the media? How is the gaming world going to change how information is going to be communicated in the future?Jonathan Marks: Younger audiences are able to absorb a much broader range of material than their parents, but may be in less depth. They can multitask much better. They react to programmes when they believe they can some-how change the outcome, even in a small way. Clever entrepreneurs like Endemol have spotted this and re-invented the audience participation formats of the 1950’s, where SMS replaces the “clapometer” (a device measuring the applause of a studio audience). But there is an overestimation that EVERYTHING must be interactive. I think certain sectors can score well, but only a few are going to get into interactive drama productions. Even callers to the phone-in shows are not a representative sample of the “average” listener and viewer. In short, once the production tools change in studios from cut-and-paste, to drag-and-drop, we will see true cross media production. At the moment, a lot of time and money is wasted because TV, radio and web all use different and incompatible tools to produce. You can be put out of business trying to solve the logistics. What future role has National TV in a globalised market to play?Jonathan Marks: Think global, but act local. NOS Journaal or RTL Nieuws will always attract more viewers than any foreign network available in Holland. Its in Dutch about Dutch issues – and most people want to know what’s going on around them first, before they get the briefing on the disasters happening in the Middle East or wherever. You can adapt formats and content to suit local tastes. But just taking shows from one culture and subtitling them for another doesn’t work in most genres, except children’s animation. Jonathan Marks is the host at our Club of Amsterdam Event aboutthe future of the Media & Entertainment Industry on Thursday, November 27, 18:30-22:15! About the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry New Entertainment Media: Transformation the Future of Work by the Institute for the FutureBy observing what is happening in the world of play and entertainment, businesses have a unique opportunity to get an early warning about how workplace practices will transform as a result of workers learning new modes of interaction, collaboration, and presence management from entertainment media. IST 2003: The Opportunities ahead by EC Directorate-General Information SocietyThis book shows how the IST Priority is working towards a vision of the future of IST that puts people first (“ambient intelligence”). It focuses on the use of IST within three key settings: by individuals and in the home (intelligent spaces); by enterprises and in the workplace (the knowledge economy); and by public services and society at large (digital communities). A fourth section covers core technologies which underpin future services and applications across these scenarios (enabling technologies). News about the Future Flying carsMoller International has developed a personal vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) vehicle.The Skycar volantor is capable of vertical take-off and landing much as a helicopter and flies from point of departure to destination much like an airplane. However, the Skycar volantor is uniquely qualified to travel short distances on the ground as an automobile as well.”In order for volantors like the Skycar to be usable in large numbers they must be easy to use and have an environment in which they can function effectively. For several years now, we have described elements of a “Highway in the Sky” system that would provide highly automated navigation and control for each and every personal aircraft, directly responsible for the flow and management of air traffic. Automated systems offer the only realistic solution to the requirements of a new era of high-speed personal aircraft travelers. As we have watched ground traffic increase and roadways deteriorate, we have stated repeatedly that this new “skyway” should be an urgent national priority and a top priority for the FAA.” – Paul S. Moller, President, Moller International. MOBILITYENERGY Automotive industry: Sustainability leaders clearly outperforming the restShares in the vehicle manufacturers most committed to sustainability have performed significantly better over the last three years than those of their less environmentally- and socially-responsible competitors. This was the finding of Munich-based oekom research AG, which conducted sustainability ratings of the 20 largest car producers and compared the results with the companies’ respective share performances. According to oekom research, the share prices of the top ten companies, among them BMW (DE) and Renault (FR), rose by an average of 8.8 per cent between September 2000 and September 2003. By contrast, the share prices of the ten companies rated, on the basis of environmental and social criteria, as below average fell by nine per cent over the same period. This group is made up predominantly of Asian companies such as Kia Motors (KR) and Isuzu (JP). The results are even clearer when one looks at the top five companies, which scored a Corporate Responsibility Rating of B- or above: with an average rise in their share prices of 36 per cent, the sustainability leaders are plainly outperforming the rest. These findings are confirmed by numerous studies showing that companies operating more sustainably are financially more successful than others. Growing numbers of investors are coming to the same conclusion and are taking sustainability criteria into account when making their investments. The analyses carried out by oekom research alone influence the management of 20 share and bond portfolios with assets valued at more than 800 million euros. 108 environmentally- and socially-oriented public funds, representing an investment volume of approximately 3.5 billion euros, are currently listed in Germany. The sustainability rating shows BMW and Renault occupying, for differing reasons, the top places in the automotive industry. “Against the general trend, BMW, for example, was able to create about 4,000 jobs in 2002 alone, and is also the industry leader in the recycling field,” says Johannes Nikolopoulos, analyst at oekom research. Renault, by contrast, comes out on top in terms of vehicle safety and the low fuel consumption levels of its fleet. oekom research’s survey focussed on, amongst other things, vehicle-related environmental and social factors such as fuel consumption levels, materials used, recycling and vehicle safety, as well as on fundamental aspects such as sustainability strategies, management systems and environmental and social standards. Thursday, November 27, 2003 Ambient Intelligence Philips’ vision of Ambient IntelligencePhilips vision of ‘Ambient Intelligence’: people living easily in digital environments in which the electronics are sensitive to people’s needs, personalized to their requirements, anticipatory of their behaviour and responsive to their presence. Fraunhofer Ambient IntelligenceTechnology should serve people – and not the other way around! The classical input devices such as keyboard and mouse will not always fulfill human needs or even presents an unbridgeable barrier in some cases. Thanks to voice-recognition systems and camera supported motion analysis, the computer will soon respond to vocal input and the wink of an eye. Innovative input systems can help to overcome the digital inhibitions experienced by elderly or disabled persons. “Ambient Intelligence“ is the target, the mobile use and incorporation of distributed, networked intelligent-components at work or at home. Smart environments in the home connect a huge variety of devices from video recorders to heating elements through to automobile electronics. Displays, sensors, control elements can be incorporated into a room, tailored to the needs of the user, and literally read his wishes from his eyes. From a technical point of view all these visions could soon be reality. Using the available information in the right place at the right time is more difficult. How can data be modeled so that it reflects a clear picture of the users needs? “Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” These words, spoken by John F. Kennedy decades ago, are still very true today. For me, they represent the vulnerable balance between the present and the future and especially how the law (but now in its literal sense) is being used both as an accelerator but also as a threshold when it comes to innovation. The laws protecting intellectual property were written with a focus on the future. The idea was that innovation would be stimulated by granting legal protection to the creators of any innovative intellectual works. And so it did (and still does). However, the other side of the coin is that the same intellectual property laws may also be used to try to prevent other parties from exploiting their new inventions. My law firm assists the founders of KaZaA in their ongoing struggle with the music and entertainment industry. Being in the middle of this, I often wondered why the industry chose to fight the new KaZaA technology, instead of embracing it and reversing the considered threat into an opportunity. This vision has been beautifully expressed by the Advocate General who recently rendered his opinion in the KaZaA case to the Supreme Court of The Netherlands:“Even though new technologies may (temporarily) be to the detriment of certain professions and industries, legislators and judges alike have been reluctant – in my opinion rightfully so – to outlaw these technologies or hamper their development. At the danger of risking the objection that any comparison is flawed, I would like to note that the introduction of the railway was to the detriment of the shipping industry. But also this: phonographic music (Edison c.s.) and the radio were to the detriment of small individual performing artists and musicians. The composers (assembled in Buma/Stemra), the star phonographic performers and the phonographic industry benefited (enormously) from these new technologies. One may appreciate these benefits, although I shed a tear thinking of the fate of the small street and bar musicians as a result hereof. No legislator or judge, however, took interest in their fate.” Learn from the past and shape your own future, is what I’ve learned so far. This is what I would like to contribute to and simultaneously aim to find in the Club of Amsterdam. MIT’s Oxygen projectIn the future, computation will be human-centered. It will be freely available everywhere, like batteries and power sockets, or oxygen in the air we breathe. It will enter the human world, handling our goals and needs and helping us to do more while doing less. We will not need to carry our own devices around with us. Instead, configurable generic devices, either handheld or embedded in the environment, will bring computation to us, whenever we need it and wherever we might be. As we interact with these “anonymous” devices, they will adopt our information personalities. They will respect our desires for privacy and security. We won’t have to type, click, or learn new computer jargon. Instead, we’ll communicate naturally, using speech and gestures that describe our intent (“send this to Hari” or “print that picture on the nearest color printer”), and leave it to the computer to carry out our will. ‘Learning Economies’ Innovation ScoreboardKnowledge-based or ‘learning economies’ require a well-educated population with excellent foundation skills and a capacity for continuous learning. Lifelong learning should therefore form a key component of national innovative capabilities. This thematic Innovation Scoreboard assembles 15 indicators for measuring lifelong learning in each EU member state. The most innovative countries in Europe, as identified in TrendChart’s Innovation Scoreboard, are also the leaders in lifelong learning: Sweden, Denmark, Finland, the UK, and Ireland. Conversely, some of the least innovative countries also have the lowest Best Performance Index in lifelong learning: Italy, Portugal and Greece. This result is confirmed by a high correlation between comparable Best Performance Indices for the Innovation and Lifelong Learning scoreboards. Although these results do not establish that good performance on lifelong learning can directly improve innovative performance, the results are suggestive of such a link. Unfortunately, good quality trend data is only available for three of the lifelong learning indicators, which prevents a direct analysis of the causal relationship between lifelong learning and innovation. (Source: TrendChart) Recommended Book I Believe in Music: Life Experiences and Thoughts on the Future of Electronic Music by the Founder of the Roland Corporationby Ikutaro Kakehashi, Robert Olsen (Contributor) The Club of Amsterdam Journal appears 2 x per monthPublished to coincide with the 30th anniversary of the Roland Corporation, this is the inspiring and heartfelt memoir of Ikutaro Kakehashi, a pioneering figure in electronic music instruments and the company’s visionary founder. From war-torn Japan to his first watch repair business to the dawn of and subsequent enormous leaps of electronic musical instruments, Kakehashi’s story is sometimes wry, sometimes touching, always wise. Through it all, Kakehashi has believed in music above else: his first priority has always been an unwavering passion for expanding the potential for artistic expression. Everyone from music aficionados to those looking for time-tested business savvy will enjoy his unique story. The book features fantastic photos throughout, including an 8-page full-color section.Ikutaro Kakehashi founded the Roland Corporation in 1972. He lives in Hosoe-cho, Hamamatsu City, Japan.Robert Olsen worked for 25 years in the international music trade before switching careers to become a college instructor and free-lance author. He lives in Northbrook, IL. PricewaterhouseCoopers is a supporter of the Club of Amsterdam. Sponsor of the Club of Amsterdam event about ‘the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry’ on Thursday, November 27: The Club of Amsterdam Round Table: Wanda van Kerkvoorden Wanda van KerkvoordenSOLV new business advocaten “Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” These words, spoken by John F. Kennedy decades ago, are still very true today. For me, they represent the vulnerable balance between the present and the future and especially how the law (but now in its literal sense) is being used both as an accelerator but also as a threshold when it comes to innovation. The laws protecting intellectual property were written with a focus on the future. The idea was that innovation would be stimulated by granting legal protection to the creators of any innovative intellectual works. And so it did (and still does). However, the other side of the coin is that the same intellectual property laws may also be used to try to prevent other parties from exploiting their new inventions. My law firm assists the founders of KaZaA in their ongoing struggle with the music and entertainment industry. Being in the middle of this, I often wondered why the industry chose to fight the new KaZaA technology, instead of embracing it and reversing the considered threat into an opportunity. This vision has been beautifully expressed by the Advocate General who recently rendered his opinion in the KaZaA case to the Supreme Court of The Netherlands:“Even though new technologies may (temporarily) be to the detriment of certain professions and industries, legislators and judges alike have been reluctant – in my opinion rightfully so – to outlaw these technologies or hamper their development. At the danger of risking the objection that any comparison is flawed, I would like to note that the introduction of the railway was to the detriment of the shipping industry. But also this: phonographic music (Edison c.s.) and the radio were to the detriment of small individual performing artists and musicians. The composers (assembled in Buma/Stemra), the star phonographic performers and the phonographic industry benefited (enormously) from these new technologies. One may appreciate these benefits, although I shed a tear thinking of the fate of the small street and bar musicians as a result hereof. No legislator or judge, however, took interest in their fate.” Learn from the past and shape your own future, is what I’ve learned so far. This is what I would like to contribute to and simultaneously aim to find in the Club of Amsterdam. Questionnaire about the future of Food & Biotech The Club of Amsterdam organised a conference about ‘the future of Food & Biotech‘ on October 28, 2003. The participants of the event filled out a questionnaire: 85% of the participants agreed that we need new technologies to get a higher quality of food. 77% of the participants thought that The Netherlands would miss economic opportunities by discussing biotech for too long. 62% would like to have more political influence on developments of biotech & food. 38% of the visitors already try to influence biotech by buying or not buying genetic modified food. 69% of the participants believe that biotech is able to provide a more environmental friendly food production. 85% thought that the government should promote the development of new technologies, for example by subsidies, to increase the quality of food. All the participants who filled in the questionnaire stated that the right to know what they eat is important to them. 62% of the visitors thought that people are overreacting to the uncertainties of biotech. Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 October 28, 2003 the future of Food & Biotech November 27, 2003 the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry January 28, 2004 the future of the European Knowledge Society February 18, 2004 the future of Education & Learning March 31, 2004 the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy? April 28, 2004 the future of Healthcare & Technology May 19, 2004 the future of Architecture June 23, 2004 the future of Culture & Religion
by Intel Research 2003 Anywhere, Anytime, Any Device The future is unwiredAnalysts predict that by 2005 there will be 700 million mobile handsets and over 80 million WLANs in use world-wide, and nearly 13 million wireless home networks in place in the United States. Explosive growth of wireless networks and devices will have a huge impact on the core network itself. The network equipment infrastructure, converged devices and valuable services that are enabling the unwired future represent an enormous opportunity for computing and communication companies and the businesses and consumers they serve. For thirty-five years, Intel has been changing the way the world computes. Through industry-leading silicon design and manufacturing, standards-based technology and product building blocks, and collaboration with industry, academia, and government, Intel is accelerating convergence and changing the way the world communicates. As communications and computing converge, Intel is uniquely positioned to accelerate the shift to a new world of services and information access anywhere, any time, on any device. “The convergence of computing and communications will bring a new level of productivity to business, reducing costs and extending the reach of communications across the globe, opening up new opportunities on a scale we can’t imagine today. Intel is committed to accelerating toward this future, through continued technology advancements and close collaboration with industry and governments worldwide.” Pat Gelsinger Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer Intel Corporation The report is available at Intel Research:http://www.intel.com/research Visit also the conference about ‘the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry‘
by Ray Kurzweil We are moving towards an era of software-based musical instruments, intelligent accompanists, and music as information, says Ray Kurzweil in highlights from his keynote speech at the 2003 Audio Engineering Society convention. Highlights of the Richard C. Heyser Memorial Lecture to the 115th Annual Convention of the Audio Engineering Society on Oct. 11, 2003. Published on KurzweilAI.net Oct. 13, 2003. Music technology is about to be radically transformed. Communication bandwidths, the shrinking size of technology, our knowledge of the human brain, and human knowledge in general are all accelerating. Three-dimensional molecular computing will provide the hardware for human-level “strong” AI well before 2030. The more important software insights will be gained in part from the reverse-engineering of the human brain, a process well under way. Once nonbiological intelligence matches the range and subtlety of human intelligence, it will necessarily soar past it because of the continuing acceleration of information-based technologies, as well as the ability of machines to instantly share their knowledge. The impact of these developments will deeply affect all human endeavors, including music. Music will remain the communication of human emotion and insight through sound from musicians to their audience, but the concepts and process of music will be transformed once again. The Coming Revolution in Intellectual Property The issue of protecting intellectual property goes far beyond music and audio technologies, but the crisis has started in the music industry. Already, music recording industry revenues are down sharply, despite an overall increase in the distribution of music. The financial crisis has caused music labels to become cautious and conservative, investing in proven artists, with less support available for new and experimental musicians. The breakdown of copyright protection is starting to impact musical instruments themselves. Synthesizers, samplers, mixers, and audio processors can all be emulated in software. It has been estimated that at least 90 percent of the copies of “Reason,” one of the emulation software leaders, are pirated. Music controllers still require hardware, but when full- immersion visual-auditory virtual reality environments become ubiquitous, which I expect by the end of this decade, we’ll be using virtual controllers that are essentially comprised of “just” software. When we have the full realization of nanotechnology-based assembly in the 2020s, we will be creating actual hardware at almost no cost from software. We are not far from that reality today, and for the recording industry it is already clear that the principal product – music – is pure information. In all industries, the portion of products and services represented by their information content is rapidly increasing. By the time we get to the nanotechnology era, most products will be essentially information. With file sharing, we’ve seen a breakdown of copyright protection. With streaming and remote access technologies, the problem will become even worse because existing copyright law doesn’t even cover these situations. If I call up a friend on the phone and play a new CD that I purchased, that’s not a violation of copyright law, nor should it be. But what is a phone call? It’s a streaming connection. File sharing networks will evolve into file streaming networks. So if you want to listen to a song, the network finds a machine with that file and it is played on that machine. You listen in on a streaming connection. No files or information are ever copied. Copyright law is based entirely on the concept of copying, so if we bypass copying, there is no violation. We can extend this concept to all forms of software, including interactive software. In this case, the user effectively uses someone else’s machine using remote access software (such as pcAnywhere or Microsoft’s Remote Desktop). With continued acceleration in hardware power, running software on someone else’s machine is likely to occupy only a small fraction of the power of the computers involved. Clearly, intellectual property licenses, and copyright law itself, can be amended to try to deal with this situation, but there are still problems. How do you define what is to be proscribed? Playing songs or demonstrating software to friends should still be allowed. Obviously, vast sharing networks go beyond friendship. So the law will need to define what constitutes a friend. Obviously there are some very slippery slopes here. The educational challenge will be even greater. If consumers today understand copyright at all, they understand it in terms of making copies of information. How is the public to understand the concept if no actual copying takes place? There are workable schemes for protecting software by building in locks that prevent software from working on machines other than authorized ones. These rely on means to identify what computer is being used, and these systems work reasonably well today. But the streaming approach bypasses this form of protection. Having cited some of the difficulties, we need to recognize that protection of intellectual property is critical, otherwise we destroy the business model that provides for the capital formation required to create the intellectual property in the first place. We could discuss at length various technical means for protecting information such as music files, but the bottom line is that all of these systems are easily breakable if that is what the public wants to do. It may seem obvious that this is indeed what the public wants to do, but that does not need to be the case. Educating consumers on the value to them of protecting intellectual property is feasible, and without such a social compact, technical approaches will inevitably fail. Is such a social expectation feasible? We do have a successful example: the cell-phone industry. Unlike the recording industry, this communications industry did not stick with the business model of the 1950s and 1960s, which included very high charges for a long distance call. The cost of a long distance call has fallen from tens of dollars to pennies. Had that not been the case, you can be sure that people would be routinely breaking cell phone network access just as readily as they now share music files. Although there are people who do break cell phone access codes, this is not considered a cool thing to do. In the recording industry, the fault lies primarily with the industry for not having budged from a business model of charging tens of dollars for an album, a pricing model that existed when my father was a child. The current lawsuits may have an educational effect, but the industry is being disingenuous in the extreme by launching these suits before they have provided a viable legitimate system of file downloading. Apple’s music site is a good initiative, but under industry pressure they have backed off their commitment to allow personal copies, and the services still doesn’t run on 98% of the installed base of personal computers. As we’ve seen in the case of cell phones, people won’t go to the trouble of breaking technical protection schemes if an industry provides a system of access and competitive pricing that the public views as tolerable and fair. With the entire economy headed towards the complete dominance of information, this remains a critical challenge. New Ways to Create Music Musical expression also offers new challenges. It has always used the most advanced technologies available, from ancient drums, the cabinet-making crafts of the eighteenth century, the mechanical linkages of the nineteenth century, the analog electronics of the mid-20th century, the digital technology of the 1980s and 1990s to the artificial intelligence coming in the 21st century. With digital samplers and synthesizers, we were able for the first time in human history to create sounds that had the complexity of acoustic sounds, but that did not originate from purely acoustic instruments. For example, we could start with piano samples and modify them with a variety of digital synthesis techniques to create sounds that had the richness of the piano, but were impossible with acoustic means alone. A particular challenge that we dealt with in creating the Kurzweil 250 was how to recreate the enharmonic overtones of a piano. Most instruments have harmonic overtones, that is the overtones are perfect multiples of the fundamental frequency. In a piano, the overtones are slightly different from being perfect multiples, and this is one of the features that gives a piano its unique timbre. Conventional samplers at the time looped the last waveform and applied a decay envelope. But their piano samples sounded like organ samples (at the point of looping) because the overtones were simple multiples of the fundamental frequency, lacking the subtlety of the complex waveforms generated by the piano and other natural instruments. In recent years, we’ve seen the emergence of software-based samplers, synthesizers, mixers, and sound processors. Although there still are significant performance benefits in using hardware DSP-based devices, software-based systems such as Reason are adequate to create professional recordings, such as movie soundtracks. The next wave of instruments will be based on physical modeling, actually simulating the interaction of sound with the strings, curved wood, and other components of physical instruments. It is then possible, of course, to create simulated instruments that would be impossible to render physically. The concept of physical modeling has been around for over a decade, but available systems are limited to building instruments from limited sets of building blocks. Future physical modeling systems will allow detailed emulation of highly complex shapes and materials, including, for example, the special resins used to create fine violins. The state of the art in physical modeling requires high-end DSP chips today, but software-based physical modeling synthesizers will be ubiquitous within five years. However, PCs will increasingly include DSPs, particularly since they are targeted at applications with audio and image processing that can benefit from DSPs. Intel experimented with this with a special version of the Pentium (Pentium MMX). This is likely to continue to happen. Microprocessors used in synthesizers and consumer products will also increasingly include DSP functionality. We are also moving towards an era of intelligent accompanists. We’ve had for many years “autoplay” features on home pianos for beginning students, but these are largely unsatisfactory because they require the human player to keep up with the automated players. What is needed in an intelligent accompanist is a system that follows the user, not the other way around. With such a system, a student could be playing a simple one-line melody, and the system would fill in with appropriate walking bass lines, rhythmic patterns, and harmonic progressions. Tod Machover has developed a series of interactive instruments that he calls hyperinstruments. They effectively provide the serious musician with intelligent accompanists. Although the human player stays in control, a single player can match the richness and intricacy of an entire ensemble. Music is a means of communicating human feelings and ideas from composers and performers to an audience. It is a language, or we might say a set of languages, that allows us to communicate emotions ranging from humor to sorrow. Machines can amplify our ability to communicate musically by providing richer palettes of sounds and means of manipulating and controlling them. Machines can also provide narrow forms of intelligence that work in close concert with human intelligence. The closeness of this connection will grow over time, reflecting the overall growing intimacy between humans and their machines.
Content 8 predictions for the Future of the Music Business by Gerd Leonhard About the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry News about the Future BBC Research & Development: MixTV Canada – Innovation Nation Recommended Book The Club of Amsterdam Roundtable: Karel van der Poel Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe 8 predictions for the Future of the Music Business by Gerd Leonhard Gerd Leonhard,Music Futurist,former CEO, licensemusic.com, USA/Switzerland 1) Music like water: music is no longer a product but a SERVICE. Music became a product with the advent of recording (records, tapes, CDs) and the formation of an industry that quickly figured out that selling the bottle can make more a lot more money than only selling the wine. For the future, think of a ‘record label’ as a ‘music utility company’. 2) A bigger pie, but cheaper slices: today’s music pricing schemes will be completely eroded by digital music services (legal and otherwise), and by stiff competition from other entertainment products. A ‘liquid’ pricing system will emerge, involving subscriptions, bundles of various content types, multi-channel and multi access charges, and countless added-value services. CD prices will end up at around 5-7 Euro per unit. But most importantly, the overall music consumption will steadily increase, and will eventually bring in $50-$90 Euro per person per year, with 75% of the population in the leading markets as active consumers – the pie will be 3 times as large. 3) Diverse and ubiquitous: a wide range of music will be everywhere, and music will be part of everything that used to be ‘images – only’: from rich media advertising to interactive slideshows to car software to MMS and digital cameras, to advertising in magazines (!) – the audio-visual use of music will soar, and the licensing revenues will explode along with it. 4) Access to music will replace ownership. Soon, consumers will have access to ‘their’ music anytime anywhere, and the physical possession of it will in fact be more of a handicap, or a knack of collectors. Music will feel (and act) like water. 5) Multi-point access to music will be the default environment, allowing consumers to ‘fill-up’ their music devices at airports, train stations and in coffee shops and bars, using wireless as well as fixed-media and on-demand technologies. 6) Go direct: major artists will exceedingly rely on their own ‘brandability’ and – via their managers – go direct to the consumers, using their own in-house marketing, branding and promotion teams. 7) The software PRO: the (performing) right organizations (PROs) as we know them will likely fade away. Complete technology solutions comprised of watermarking and fingerprinting, DRM (Digital Rights Management) and CRM (Customer Relationship Management) components, monitoring, admin / accounting and instant payment solutions will do the job quicker, cheaper and, of course, with complete transparency. 8) Mobile mania: cell phones and other wireless devices will eventually utilize and suck up more ‘content’ than any Internet service or p2p client ever has. Real-music ring-tone offerings, Multi-Media SMS (MMS), java-based games, wireless streaming audio and video, I-Mode type applications and other cell-phone based offerings will proliferate very quickly, at first in Europe and Asia, followed by the U.S. Gerd Leonhard speaks at our Club of Amsterdam Event aboutthe future of the Media & Entertainment Industry on Thursday, November 27, 18:30-22:15! About the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry The Future of Music in the Age of Spiritual Machinesby Ray Kurzweil“We are moving towards an era of software-based musical instruments, intelligent accompanists, and music as information”, says Ray Kurzweil. The Future of Communicationsby Intel ResearchAnywhere, Anytime, Any DeviceThe future is unwired Analysts predict that by 2005 there will be 700 million mobile handsets and over 80 million WLANs (wireless local-area networks) in use world-wide, and nearly 13 million wireless home networks in place in the United States. Explosive growth of wireless networks and devices will have a huge impact on the core network itself. The network equipment infrastructure, converged devices and valuable services that are enabling the unwired future represent an enormous opportunity for computing and communication companies and the businesses and consumers they serve. News about the Future Conducting computers touchlessly Software developers routinely lace their conversations with terms like “interface” and “user interface”. But even the rest of us know these words from experience – when using a touch-sensitive screen to buy a train ticket at an automated dispenser for instance. The touch screen replaces real keys with virtual ones, the idea being to reduce the number of keys and simplify interaction with the various display pages. A variety of sensor-based methods are used to link finger touch to the appropriate point on the screen, so that the computer understands the instruction. Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Media Communication IMK have developed a system that works entirely without physical contact. “The sensor technique that we have developed is based on a phenomenon which is familiar to most people,” says Wolfgang Strauss, cohead of the IMK group on Media, Arts and Research Studies MARS. “If you move around in the vicinity of a radio equipped with an antenna, reception tends to improve or deteriorate depending on where you stand, due to interference with the electricalmagnetical field. Our system measures similar changes in a locally generated, weak, oscillating electric field, but with much greater precision and spatial resolution.” An array of four antennas is installed in front of the display device. When you stretch out your arm to point to a specific part of the screen, the field strength in that area changes. A special processor interprets your gesture by analyzing the strength of the analog signals. It converts them into digital coordinates and passes them on to the multimedia processing system and the screen.aboutConducting computers touchlessly Software developers routinely lace their conversations with terms like “interface” and “user interface”. But even the rest of us know these words from experience – when using a touch-sensitive screen to buy a train ticket at an automated dispenser for instance. The touch screen replaces real keys with virtual ones, the idea being to reduce the number of keys and simplify interaction with the various display pages. A variety of sensor-based methods are used to link finger touch to the appropriate point on the screen, so that the computer understands the instruction. Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Media Communication IMK have developed a system that works entirely without physical contact. “The sensor technique that we have developed is based on a phenomenon which is familiar to most people,” says Wolfgang Strauss, cohead of the IMK group on Media, Arts and Research Studies MARS. “If you move around in the vicinity of a radio equipped with an antenna, reception tends to improve or deteriorate depending on where you stand, due to interference with the electricalmagnetical field. Our system measures similar changes in a locally generated, weak, oscillating electric field, but with much greater precision and spatial resolution.” An array of four antennas is installed in front of the display device. When you stretch out your arm to point to a specific part of the screen, the field strength in that area changes. A special processor interprets your gesture by analyzing the strength of the analog signals. It converts them into digital coordinates and passes them on to the multimedia processing system and the screen. ENERGY Let water power your cell phone: University of Alberta engineering researchers revisit a novel source of electricity A team of researchers at the Faculty of Engineering at the University of Alberta have built upon 40-year-old research to revive a novel way of generating electricity from flowing water – instead of ever having to charge up a cellular again, the phone could soon be fitted with a battery that uses pressurized water. Research published October 20, 2003 by the Institute of Physics journal, Journal of Micromechanics and Microengineering reinforces an older method of generating electric power by harnessing the natural electrokinetic properties of a liquid such as ordinary tap water when it is pumped through tiny microchannels. The research team in Edmonton, Canada, has a prototype for a new source of clean non-polluting electric power with a variety of possible uses, ranging from powering small electronic devices to contributing to a national power grid. The research was led by Professor Daniel Kwok and Professor Larry Kostiuk from the University of Alberta. It built upon a paper published in November, 1964 by Dr. Osterle at the Carnegie Institute of Technology in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. With the assistance of two graduate students, the team was able to build a prototype to illuminate a real light bulb by exploiting the coupling between electrokinetic phenomena and the hydrodynamics of liquid flow. “This discovery has a huge number of possible applications,” said Kostiuk. “It’s possible that it could be a new alternative energy source to rival wind and solar power, but this would need huge bodies of water to work on a commercial scale. Hydrocarbon fuels are still the best source of energy but they’re fast running out and so new options like this one could be vital in the future. “This technology could provide a new power source for devices such as mobile phones or calculators which could be charged up by pumping water to high pressure.” Although the power generated from a single channel is extremely small, millions of parallel channels can be used to increase the power output. More work will be needed to further understand this new means to produce power. The environmental benefit of clean energy conversion using safe, renewable materials is motivating the team to explore how their prototypical device may be developed into a battery for eventual commercial use. The inventors are working with the U of A’s Technology Transfer Group (TTG) to develop a commercialization strategy for the groundbreaking work. A patent application has been filed by the university to obtain broad, early protection of the invention. The TTG is reviewing market opportunities. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT CERN and Caltech join forces to smash Internet speed recordCERN and California Institute of Technology (Caltech) received an award for transferring over a Terabyte of data across 7,000 km of network at 5.44 gigabits per second (Gbps), smashing the old record of 2.38 Gbps achieved in February between CERN in Geneva and Sunnyvale in California by a Caltech, CERN, Los Alamos National Laboratory and Stanford Linear Accelerator Center team. The international CERN-Caltech team set this new Internet2 Land Speed Record on 1 October 2003 by transferring 1.1 Terabytes of data in less than 30 minutes, corresponding to 38,420.54 petabit-metres per second. The average rate of 5.44 Gbps is more than 20,000 times faster than a typical home broadband connection and is equivalent to transferring a full CD in 1 second or a full length DVD movie in approximately 7 seconds. “This new record marks another major milestone towards our final goal of abolishing distances and, in so doing, to enable more efficient worldwide scientific collaboration,” said Martin, Head of External Networking at CERN and Manager of the European Union DataTAG project. “The record further proves that it is no longer a dream to replicate terabytes of data around the globe routinely and in a timely manner.” Newman, head of the Caltech team and chair of the ICFA Standing Committee on Inter-Regional Connectivity said: “This is a major milestone towards our goal of providing on-demand access to high energy physics data from around the world, using servers affordable to physicists from all regions. We have now reached the point where servers side by side have the same TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) performance as servers separated by 10,000 km. We also localised the current bottleneck to the I/O capability of the end-systems, and we expect that systems matching the full speed of a 10 Gbps link will be commonplace in the relatively near future.” Thursday, November 27, 2003 BBC Research & Development: MixTV BBC R&D is a world leading centre for media production and broadcasting technology. The goal of MixTV is to enhance and innovate BBC broadcast productions by using Mixed Reality Technologies in various genres.aboutThe goal of MixTV is to enhance and innovate BBC broadcast productions by using Mixed Reality Technologies in various genres. MixTV: Mixed reality in future productionThe MixTV system can in real time a) merge real and virtual elements, b) work in a conventional studio or outdoor production, c) allow free movement and zooming of the camera and d) allow interaction with the virtual elements. How does it work?1) Markers are tracked in real time and replaced by virtual elements2) The virtual elements are merged with the live video image3) Animations are triggered by bringing two markers together4) Mask layers are generated using the alpha channel5) Transitions from real to virtual camera and video walls Interactive productionsHands-on productions can use a standard PC and a web camera. These can be productions for road shows, public spaces, web and for proof of concept. One example is the Euro Table that shows ways of communicating financial data to our viewers to inform and entertain. Broadcast productionsConventional studio or outdoor productions can use a standard POC and any study quality camera. One example is the WarBoard production that shows possible ways to communicate and analyse news of a country in conflict to our viewers. Canada – Innovation Nation “Innovation Nation – een seminar over de high-tech sector en het ondernemingsklimaat in Canada”, November 14, Amsterdam Recommended Book First Fruit: The Creation of the Flavr Savr Tomato and the Birth of Biotech Foodsby Belinda MartineauEngaging both sides of the agricultural biotech controversy and hoping to initiate a reasoned dialogue, geneticist Belinda Martineau explores the development and eventual failure of the Flavr Savr tomato in First Fruit. One of the Calgene scientists who worked on the tomato (the first genetically modified food on the market), she offers great insight into the scientific and business factors that drive the research and marketing of biotech products. Concerned about the eager and simplistic denial of most of her colleagues when faced with protests from consumer advocates, she wants to see more direct communication between the two sides.Using the story of Flavr Savr’s development, Martineau shows the reader both the quality of biotech research and the power of management to obfuscate or otherwise affect that work. Though straying into dead-end stories of her colleagues’ interactions a little too often, for the most part the narrative flows smoothly and draws the reader along swiftly to the tomato’s eventual, inevitable demise in the market. Ironically, the Flavr Savr failed more because it couldn’t live up to Calgene’s nearly messianic marketing than from any protester’s work, even if it did launch a few activists’ careers. Telling industry to pay more heed to honesty and research while suggesting that the public pursue better scientific education shouldn’t be asking too much – perhaps First Fruit will help de-escalate the debate. – Rob Lightner PricewaterhouseCoopers is a supporter of the Club of Amsterdam. Sponsor of the Club of Amsterdam event about ‘the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry’ on Thursday, November 27: The Club of Amsterdam Roundtable: Hugo de Bruin Hugo de Bruin,HDB Interactive,Management &Consultancy The future of TV Over the past decades the TV broadcasters have had a lot of power. The most powerful medium type of our times, TV, is actually more than the medium itself: it is also a technical content form as well as en end user device. The power of the TV broadcaster spans over the complete chain, from production right into the living room. We as consumers are of course very pleased with the large choice of channels and programs we can watch and will probably accept the commercials as an unavoidable side effect. But habits are changing. Today in the USA, youth between 12 and 25 is spending more time on the Internet than watching TV. This generation will inevitably grow up into being the ruling establishment and therewith dictating the consumer market. When asked for the main reason for choosing the Internet over TV, they state that the freedom to choose their own content and subjects is leading. This should be a firm wake-up call for all traditional broadcasters. What will happen to the power of broadcasters as soon as they loose their dominance over the complete chain is evident. After all, in the experience of the consumer the TV is just another screen. So what if you can hook up this screen to the processing power and storage capability of your home PC, which in its turn is connected to the Internet by means of i.e. ADSL? Compression rates and connection protocols are evolving constantly and we are very close to being able to send a complete feature movie over the existing Internet in just a few seconds (thanks to an improved TCP protocol recently tested by CERN and Caltech). The TV will just be another screen in the interconnected home and traditional broadcasters will only survive if they are able to provide the consumer with sufficient added value over their distant Internet competitors, who probably will be the content owners themselves. How they should do this? Your guess is as good as mine, I can only advice them to talk to this new Internet generation and take a close look at what these kids are doing today. Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 October 28, 2003 the future of Food & Biotech November 27, 2003 the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry January 28, 2004 the future of the European Knowledge Society February 18, 2004 the future of Education & Learning March 31, 2004 the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy? April 28, 2004 the future of Healthcare & Technology May 19, 2004 the future of Architecture June 23, 2004 the future of Culture & Religion
by Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality The Hague, September 2000 Policy Document on Organic Agriculture, 2001-2004 Contents Introduction The ambition Difficulties Spearheads of policy Financial resources Annex: Status of organic agriculture in the Netherlands Introduction The policy document on Food Production and Rural Areas (Voedsel en Groen) focuses on the change in thinking about the agricultural sector. It is not concerned solely with primary agriculture, but with the whole chain from primary sector to consumer. This agrifood complex is characterised by socially responsible business practice, a high level of knowledge and innovative strength and is thus a world market leader. A demand-centred approach is essential since the agrifood complex is driven by the wishes of citizens and consumers.The demand-centred approach is the key to this first follow-up to the policy document on Food Production and the Rural Areas. Like other parts of the agrifood complex, the organic chain faces the challenge of developing over the coming decade into a sustainable sector as an integral part of society competing independently in international markets, and setting the standard in Europe.Opting for a demand-centred approach has consequences for the role of the parties involved. This Policy Document on organic agriculture, Een biologische markt te winnen, fleshes out the role of central government and the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality in particular, in assisting the organic chain from 2001 to 2004 inclusive. The organic sector has an excellent record of socially responsible business practice: in all links of the chain, organic production very largely meets our social requirements in terms of environment, animal welfare and biodiversity, and plays a pioneering role for the entire agrifood complex. There is growing demand for organic produce. While total food sales in the European Union are stagnating, sales of organic products are rising. Consumers are motivated not only by social conscience, but also by the healthy and reliable image of organic products. The certification of products and the method of production with the EKO quality mark contribute to this image. Organic production appeals to the standards and values of both consumers and producers: pride in a product created with respect for our natural environment. In its further development the organic sector can count on the support of two significant pillars of the Dutch agrifood complex: namely the great extent of available knowledge and the agricultural trade. Available knowledge can be used and disseminated or new knowledge can be developed in the short term. Organic agriculture requires a different system of production and thus continually fuels innovation, which can also be very important for mainstream agriculture. Partly because of the far-reaching involvement of supermarket chains, this is an international market. The Netherlands already enjoys a strong position in the international market, and further reinforcement of trade will be essential in taking advantage of the international potential of Dutch organic production.However the organic chain also has some weaknesses. Despite the efforts of the chain, supported by government initiatives, Dutch organic agriculture occupies a fairly modest position in Europe. In 1999, for example, only slightly over 1% of the total agricultural land area in the Netherlands was used for organic production (Central Bureau of Statistics, CBS). Area of organic agriculture(hectares) in 1998 Percentage of totalagricultural land in 1998 Average growthper year (%), 1993-1998 Belgium 6,800 0.5 12.3 Denmark 90,000 3.3 28.2 Germany 374,000 2.2 10.7 Finland 119,000 5.5 25.6 France 230,00 0.4 13.9 Greece 7,200 0.1 78.3 Great Britain 188,000 1.0 18.1 Italy 610,000 4.1 46.6 The Netherlands 19,000 1.0 16.1 Norway 15,581 1.5 32.8 Austria 350,000 10.1 15.5 Portugal 17,000 0.4 33.6 Spain 140,000 0.6 36.1 Sweden 110,000 3.2 12.9 Source: Institute of Environmental Studies, Amsterdam University The organic sector is moving from a pioneering phase into an expansion phase. The major trigger of growth, market demand, is already in place. However, growth is currently proceeding in fits and starts. The chain is not yet performing well enough in terms of scale and strength: scale great enough to generate sufficient demand, and strength to continue to meet the high expectations of the consumers. Furthermore, the chain seems hesitant: holding back instead of seeking the initiative, at a time when market prospects are better than ever. Significant market players are showing a readiness to invest in organic production. One example is the supermarket trade association, the Centraal Bureau Levensmiddelenhandel (CBL) [Dutch Association of Food Trade Organisations], that recently announced that organic products would receive preferential treatment and special promotion in the supermarkets. Responsibility for investment in the future lies with the organic chain itself. However, the combination of market prospects on the one hand and the pioneering role of organics in the area of social responsibility and innovative enterprise on the other justify a policy of incentives to give a boost to the organic sector. We have opted more emphatically than in the past four years for a demand-centred approach: for business the market must be the guiding factor, the different parts of the chain must capitalise on the market potential for organic products. The prospects are good: there is an organic market waiting to be conquered. 2. The ambition It would be a feather in the cap for the Netherlands if 10% of available acreage was organic by the year 2010. In international terms this would put the Netherlands in an excellent position. To achieve this the acreage under organic farming would have to increase by around 25% per year from 2001 onwards. Considering that the annual average growth from 1993 to 1998 was 16%, some acceleration is required. This cannot be achieved simply by government measures to stimulate supply. The market players, including consumer and social organisations, must rise to the challenge. The necessary acceleration can be brought about through cooperation. Strong growth in the area under organic agriculture would mean that at the end of this decade: Dutch consumers will be among the top European consumers of organic produce from retail, wholesale and catering sources; the agrifood producers will have a number of strong organic brands; Dutch agriculture, in its leading position in production, technology and management, will also master the field of organic production like no other; the sector will compete independently on the international market; the Dutch agricultural knowledge complex will make a significant contribution to knowledge and technology. The market players have primary and joint responsibility for these tasks. There is an important role to be played by the retail, wholesale and catering trades. They form the link with the consumer and, as the demand for organic products grows, they can exert influence on the conversion process. The government hopes to accelerate growth by providing a temporary impetus, with the emphasis on establishing cooperation between market players. With this temporary stimulus the government hopes to contribute to organic agriculture as a socially responsible and innovative type of operation with effects for the entire agrifood complex. 3. Difficulties The market prospects for organic agriculture are good. However, a number of difficulties could hamper the desired acceleration in growth. These can be summarised under three headings. Difficulty: the chain does not operate as well as possible To have the greatest possible influence on favourable market prospects chains need to work smoothly and professionally. Market players must be able to cooperate with each other. At the moment in the organic chain they are unsure how to find each other, do not trust each other or are even entirely unknown to each other. As a result they do not make adequate use of opportunities. In addition, existing institutions can hinder the operation of the chain. It is striking that a number of existing institutions are barely addressing organic agriculture, if at all. It would be good if, for example, some of the commodity boards would invest more in strengthening organic chains. The result of the imperfect working of the chain is that the supply and range of products is limited and unnecessary costs are incurred, making the price to the consumer unnecessarily high. Market prospects are good because there is a large group of potential new consumers of organic products. However, these new consumers are not being reached, because they require a different approach to the often strongly ideologically motivated consumers who currently buy organic products. The new consumers are concerned with the quality of the product, but are particularly influenced by both the way it is perceived and the availability of a wide range of products. The extra cost of this quality product must not be too high compared with the price of a conventionally produced product, particularly as conventional products are produced in ever cleaner and more environmentally-friendly conditions. The favourable market prospects have not yet penetrated sufficiently far into the chain to make primary producers more willing to switch to organic production. The reluctance to convert has a number of causes. For many, the combination of a 2 – 3 year conversion period with uncertainty about the medium term market situation is an important consideration. In addition, conversion from mainstream to organic production requires a major change in business management and philosophy. Organic production involves different production methods, in turn requiring different knowledge and skills and more work from the producers. It also involves a higher degree of commercial risk, particularly in the initial years. Furthermore many sectors are faced with a statutory conversion period agreed at European level, causing a loss in income which is not offset by any direct price compensation during the period when the produce cannot yet be sold as organic. In certain sectors, such as pig farming, heavy investment in housing units is needed to meet the new requirements. Difficulty: living up to consumer confidence Consumers are demanding ever-higher standards of quality and production methods. This applies to all chains, but it is particularly true of the organic chain, where consumers have high expectations. Consumers increasingly ask for more information about the production process and the traceability and origin of the raw materials. With organic products consumers will want guarantees that the product is produced entirely organically. This requires a reliable inspection and certification system within the chain. Precisely because the organic chain is currently at an early stage of development, there is an opportunity to close the chain properly. European regulations (Regulation (EEC) no. 2092/91) set out the requirements to be met by organic products and production methods and also regulate the inspection process. These European regulations permit limited use of conventional products in organic agriculture: often for a limited period. Although this use is legally permissible, in order to reinforce its image, the sector must strive for the most organic production method possible. However, organic agriculture cannot currently undertake to use only products of organic origin in the production process. There are various reasons for this. For example, with organic starting material and organic glasshouse horticulture it is not yet clear what conditions the product or production methods must meet. The organic product may not be sufficiently widely available, as is the case with, say, organic fertiliser and crop protection products of natural origin. Finally, the sector cannot entirely prevent products that do not belong in organic agriculture from ending up in the process. Genetically modified organisms (gmos) are an example of this. Under European regulations no use may be made of gmos or derivative products in the organic chain. But this does not automatically prevent gmos from finding their way into the organic production process, for example, during transportation. European regulations on organic production methods are still being developed. On 24 August 2000 the rules for crop production were supplemented with those for animal production. However, in practice the rules – for example on organic glasshouse horticulture – will have to be elaborated before we can really talk about European harmonisation. The lack of full European harmonisation means that the rules are still not entirely clear. As a result, organic products from different EC member states cannot always be compared like for like. The rising expectations of consumers go further than the statutory regulations. In the coming years, organic agriculture will be expected to adhere to reliable guarantees over a broader field. The inspection and certification system will have to develop continually. Transparency is a precondition for continuing consumer confidence. Difficulty: lack of new knowledge and inadequate dissemination of knowledge Because it is a different system, organic production methods require different knowledge and skills of all links in the chain. Among primary producers in particular there is a real need for new knowledge about organic production systems and techniques and specific problems in operational management. This applies to the development of business systems, starting material and crop protection methods of natural origin, new forms of weed control, energy use in glasshouses and labour-saving and labour-reducing techniques. Further professionalisation of the chain will require joint development of knowledge, in which conventional and organic businesses and the knowledge institutes collaborate more effectively and benefit from each other’s knowledge. Gaining access to developed knowledge (including experiential knowledge) is a problem for individual businesses. In this context more intensive interaction between researchers, information services, education, intermediaries and primary producers and better dissemination and exchange of knowledge are essential and need extra attention. Finally, when it comes to the driving force behind research, organic agriculture takes too little responsibility for the formulation of research questions. 4. Spearheads of policy The role of the government is two-fold. It is permanently responsible, under Regulation (EEC) no. 2092/91 among others, for the enforcement of legislation and regulations and supervises the inspection system. In addition, research, education, and provision of information are important instruments of government policy. However, because the organic chain faces a number of difficulties in achieving the desired growth, the government will also have a transitional role as a catalyst, inspiring the chain to take initiatives to overcome the difficulties. Thus government contributes to an economically sound and socially responsible production chain which will be able to operate without government support in the short term. This role will be a transitional one. It is ultimately up to the market players to complete the task unaided. Cooperation between all the parties is important. In terms of policy it should be emphasised that not only the state but also the provincial authorities stimulate organic agriculture. Other regional authorities, such as the municipal councils and water boards, and social organisations are also developing activities aimed at expanding organic agriculture. The government heartily applauds these initiatives. Platform Biologica is an umbrella organisation for primary organic producers, the supply and processing industries, the trade and retailers. In addition to promoting the interests of the sector, Platform Biologica also has a role in relation to this Policy Document, in closing the chain (including organic starting material, gmos), increasing awareness of the regulations for and understanding of organic production methods, and cooperation with the conventional sector. It can also fulfil a role in private and public initiatives to stimulate organic agriculture. Platform Biologica has performed a lot of important work in recent years. As with other organisations, the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality will opt for a market-centred approach. The funding of Platform Biologica will be continued in 2001. Starting in 2002 the scale of funding will be decided on a project-by-project basis depending on submitted and approved project proposals. Considering the nature of the difficulties identified and the desired rapid growth in organic acreage, there is no need for government policy to select particular areas and/or sectors in the Netherlands. Businesses must choose what organic products to grow and where. Government policy will be generic in nature. The demand-centred approach is the main consideration and this will affect the choice of policy instruments. The 1997-2000 Action Plan was aimed primarily at supporting market development, improving quality and stimulating the conversion of primary production. The time is now ripe for a new and different orientation: the chain is the key factor and given favourable market prospects, a demand-centred approach is appropriate. Considering the nature of the problems, the government has opted for the following approach: synergy: cooperation between market players enabling them to exploit favourable market prospects; quality and guarantees by closing the chain; development and dissemination of knowledge. In the next four years following this Policy Document, policy will focus on the following spearheads. I. The professionalisation of demand-centred chains The purpose of this process is to make the best possible use of market potential through cooperation between the parties. It should result in stronger chains with a larger volume and a wider range of organic products at lower prices, and with adequate prospects for primary producers to convert to organic production methods. A framework agreement elaborated in business plansThe Ministry will set up a Task force for market development of organic agriculture with a limited number of representatives from various links of the chain, including banks and consumer and social organisations. The job of the task force will be to catalogue the difficulties and designate solutions and objectives in the various chains. To prepare for the task force, the Ministry has already funded external research, in consultation with the CBL, LTO Nederland (Dutch Federation of Agricultural and Horticultural Organisations) and Platform Biologica, into problems and possible approaches to solutions in a number of organic chains. The work of the task force must culminate in the signing of a framework agreement. In view of the willingness displayed by the market players, this should be possible by the end of 2000.This cooperation between the players must subsequently lead to concrete business plans for the various chains. These business plans must contain specific objectives and binding agreements about the stimulation of the organic chains. The business plan is the stage when the intentions expressed by the various players are put into operation.In the execution of the business plans, the government will make a financial contribution on a project-by-project basis, through the joint innovation programme and other measures, to the development of concrete market activities. Such activities might be, for example, in the fields of quality improvements, production volumes, product innovations, clustering of businesses and logistics. The funding will be limited to projects in which different market players have an interest, projects which would not get off the ground without an extra boost from the government, and which contribute to achieving the objectives agreed in the business plans. The results of the projects must also be of use to all parties.By mid-2001 the business plans should be complete. This will be the time to evaluate this part of the process: too few business plans, or none at all, will lead to a reconsideration of the deployment of government measures and funds. The implementation of the business plans will be reviewed annually by the Ministry, and adjusted where necessary. Information and communication planThe government has the task of providing the public with objective information. By raising public awareness about sustainable production, animal welfare and biodiversity, the public, and thus the consumer, begins to appreciate the real value of the product and will be more willing to pay a higher price for it. The premium is paid because organic agriculture goes beyond the statutory requirements applicable to conventional agriculture, and incurs higher costs in production. Agriculture as a whole can benefit from this process of increasing consumer awareness. An information plan will be elaborated in which institutions such as the Voedingscentrum Nederland (Netherlands Nutrition Centre) will provide the public with objective information on sustainably produced products.Communication with potential new consumers is a challenge to be shared by the market players. A communication plan linked to the framework agreement or the business plans is the obvious direction to take. This communication plan must be aimed at the consumer and the part of the chain serving the consumer (retail, catering and wholesale trades), emphasising the promotion of organic products. The main aim of the communication plan must be to win over and retain new consumers. II. Optimum transparency and closing the chain Optimum transparency and closing the chain are priorities for all players in the agrifood complex. The chains themselves are responsible for this, and the aim is to provide guarantees and live up to consumer expectations. Given the current stage of development of the organic chain, there is now a good opportunity to build up a solid and efficient system. Chain guarantee systemsLike other chains, the organic chain must meet the relevant public health requirements and requirements imposed by market players. The obvious approach is to link this to the development of chain guarantee and certification systems in the conventional agriculture sector. Where necessary a chain guarantee system can be adapted to the organic production system. Transparency is a precondition for consumer confidence. The entire production process must be inspected at every step and must be traceable. The use of the Hazards Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP) principle throughout the chain is therefore desirable. The organic chain can make use of its expertise in the field of certification for the EKO quality mark. Closing the chainOrganic products have a high amenity value. The products are known to consumers as being produced in a natural and environmentally-friendly way without the use of pesticides and gmos. However, the chain cannot currently guarantee that everything is entirely organic. The chain is primarily responsible for this. Given the issues specific to this chain, and the over-riding importance of closing the chain, the government wishes to spur on the process. Where necessary temporary assistance will be provided in the following areas: Organic starting materialThe Netherlands is highly respected throughout the world in the field of the breeding and production of starting material. The organic and breeding sectors must join forces in the short term at European level to arrive at an adequate and accepted definition of organic processing. They must specify what methods are acceptable and how processing should be carried out. Alliances between the conventional and organic sectors would facilitate this. On completion of this first step, the processing sector will receive transitional funding on the basis of initiatives to be proposed by the business community. In addition, to provide support, the research will be expressly aimed at increasing the availability of organic starting material. Genetically modified organisms (gmos)Keeping the chain gmo-free concerns not only organic agriculture but also all other chains seeking gmo-free production. The chain itself is primarily responsible for excluding gmos. The role of the government in respect of gmos is set out in the Integral Policy Document on Biotechnology. The government wishes to give consumers the opportunity to choose between gm and gm-free products. For some years the Ministry has provided support for a project concerned with the non-gm nature of the organic chain. Following on from this project financial support will be given to a joint initiative of the organic business community aimed at the actual development of a gm-free organic chain, and the necessary monitoring system. In this project cooperation with other gm-free chains would be an advantage. Crop protection products of natural originConsumers will in future expect the sector to keep the use of crop protection products permitted under the regulations to a minimum. Prevention of pests and diseases must take precedence. Policy on crop protection after 2000 will be determined this autumn. The crop protection products of natural origin required by the organic sector are subject to the same requirement as the conventional products: that they are safe for mankind and the environment. Work is currently underway nationally and internationally to simplify the approval procedures for crop protection products of natural origin and so reduce the costs of evaluation. In addition the institution of a transitional incentive fund for approval is being evaluated.These actions combined with the activities of the sector in these fields must be sufficient to close the organic chain. InspectionAs announced in the policy document on Food Production and Rural Areas (Voedsel en Groen) the government will take a stronger interest in supervision of the inspection process. In the Netherlands Skal (Stichting Keur Alternatief voortgebrachte Landbouwprodukten) is currently responsible for the inspection of organic production methods under the Landbouwkwaliteitsbesluit biologische productiemethode (Agricultural Produce Quality Control Decree). The role of the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality as the Skal watchdog is currently being evaluated and adapted where necessary. The same applies to the unique position of Skal in the Netherlands. Harmonisation of international legislation and regulations on organic agricultureIn addition to its role as a driving force and supervisory authority, the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality has an important function to fulfil in the development of European and international legislation and regulations. The debate on standards for organic production is currently taking place mainly in the European forum. For the Netherlands issues such as the import of organic products from third countries, the rules for organic glasshouse horticulture and starting material and the further elaboration of gmo-free organic agriculture are of great importance. The sector is being asked to make an active effort to indicate clearly the directions it wants to develop. The object is optimum harmonisation of international legislation and regulations. This must increase the transparency of the chain.European rules for organic animal production have been in force since 24 August 2000. These provide the opportunity to supplement the European rules with national rules. The Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality has decided not to introduce any additional national statutory regulations. Its argument is that the European rules form the basic level and the ‘bonus’ – stricter national standards – can be created in the market. The Ministry does however wish to make a strong case in Brussels for a further round of harmonisation between member states. Should additional harmonisation prove impossible, cooperation will be sought in the European context with other member states holding similar views. III. Development and dissemination of knowledge Knowledge is essential for tapping new markets, developing new ways of reaching consumers and improving the environment we live in. Development and dissemination of knowledge is essential in all links of the chain: in growing, processing, sales and distribution. The development and dissemination of knowledge has in recent years contributed significantly to the growth of organic agriculture. It will continue to be in demand in the coming years. Primary producers in the process of conversion will want to know more about organic production systems and techniques and specific difficulties in operational management. By forging a link between organic and conventional research, existing knowledge and infrastructure can be used. Organic agriculture will have to strengthen its position within the current structure of research control. Proper organisation of the research questions and contributions to the realisation of the research will help to strengthen its position. Examples of difficulties facing primary producers in organic operational management:pests and diseasesmechanical weed controluse of energy and nutrient management in the glasshousesoil and nutrient managementmineralisation of organic fertiliserslabour productivity Wageningen University and Research Centre (UR) has announced that it intends to put organic agriculture firmly on the agenda. Within a foreseeable time Wageningen UR hopes to devote 10% of its discretionary budget for research to organic agriculture. It is also investigating the possibility of starting a new course in organic agriculture. These initiatives on the part of Wageningen UR will strengthen the development and dissemination of knowledge. Research is not an end in itself. The dissemination and transfer of knowledge are at least as important. Knowledge institutes will have to make extra efforts through cooperation between researchers, information services, education and intermediaries. The government will continue to make a financial contribution to the dissemination of knowledge for potential organic farmers. The emphasis here is on encouraging conversion and improving organic enterprise skills. In the educational world serious efforts have been made to integrate organic agriculture into general courses. This has laid the foundation for the broad introduction and dissemination of organic agriculture in professional practice. This line will be continued in subsequent years, among other things in the reform of agricultural education. Financial assistance will be made available for this under an innovation regulation for agricultural education. Courses on organic agriculture for current producers also receive financial support so that course fees can be kept down. These actions in the field of research, information and education, where the government has a traditional role, will help to tackle the remaining knowledge gaps. IV. Stimulating organic primary production: transition from supply to demand-centred approach Direct government support for the development of organic agriculture is not the appropriate course for the future. Good market prospects must provide the stimulus for farmers to convert to organic production. The business plans referred to under the heading ‘the professionalisation of demand-centred chains’ must in the short term provide primary producers with sufficient guarantees to make the step from conventional to organic methods. On the other hand the sector must be given some time to master this demand-centred approach. The next few years will be a transitional period: new instruments will be introduced to stimulate conversion, old measures will be dismantled. Guarantees for capital-intensive sectorsGovernment guarantees reduce the risks of investment in capital-intensive business systems. In terms of the costs associated with conversion, pig farming has particularly high start-up costs due to the necessary adaptation of the housing. Currently under the Borgstellingsfonds (Agricultural Guarantee Fund) banks lend money to farmers and growers with (partial) government guarantees that the interest and amortisation payments will be honoured. Promoting conversionIn the 1997-2000 Plan of Action financial support was available for the conversion of primary production to organic in the vegetable sectors and dairy farming under the Regeling Stimulering Biologische Productiemethode (Organic Production Financial Incentives Scheme (RSBP)). Under this scheme the government contributed to compensation for loss of income suffered as a result of the statutory conversion period during which the primary producers produce organically but cannot yet market their products as organic. In the last year of the current Action Plan (2000) and the first year of this Policy Document (2001), 65% of the loss of income is compensated by the government under the Financial Incentives Scheme. The scheme will run for the last time in 2002. The compensation for loss of income will then be set at 50%. The scheme is non-selective in that it does not specify which vegetable and dairy farming sectors may be eligible.Business review For a producer to make a considered choice to convert to organic production it is vital to have a commercial development plan drawn up by a competent body. Financial support will be available to all sectors to help with the cost of compiling the plan. V. Other matters LabourOrganic agriculture is labour-intensive and often has seasonal labour peaks. This is not unique to organic agriculture. Other primary sectors are also faced with labour shortages. In addition, working conditions in agriculture and horticulture are not (yet) regarded as attractive. Recruiting the necessary workers can sometimes cause serious problems. The employment strategy is in the first instance the responsibility of the producers themselves. However, in its policy document ‘Voedsel en Groen’ (Food Production and Rural Areas), the government announced that it would examine the possibility of forming labour pools. This would facilitate a broad deployment of labour not bound to a particular business which would benefit organic agriculture. The research process will consider labour saving in operational management by developing labour-saving techniques, among other things. VAT rate for organic productsBased on the sixth EU directive on turnover tax, zero-rating for organic products is not permitted in Europe. In the Memorandum on various VAT issues of 14 June 2000 to the Standing Finance Committee of the Lower House, the State Secretary of Finance indicated that this would only be likely to succeed if other EU member states would be prepared to support such a request from the Netherlands. The Ministry of Finance is currently seeking the views of other member states and will inform the House in due course of its progress. 5. Financial resources The deployment of state funding depends to a considerable extent on the will of the market players to set up joint market-oriented projects. The section ‘The professionalisation of demand-centred chains’ of this Policy Document will be evaluated for the first time in mid-2001 and policy will be adjusted as necessary. A conscious choice has been made not to attach the deployment of financial resources to particular parts of the chain. Deployment must be flexible to respond to the development of the chain. Support for the development and dissemination of knowledge is an exception to this rule. The following amounts are available for the implementation of the Policy Document on Organic Agriculture 2001-2004: Financial statement (commitment in NLG millions) 2001 2002 2003 2004 Total 1. Professionalisation of chain;optimum transparency and closing of chain 5 7.5 7.5 5 25 2. Knowledge – research 17 18.5 18 18 71.5 – information and educational courses 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 10.5 3. Measures to stimulate the conversion of the primary sector – guarantees 5 5 5 5 20 – RSBP 20 10 0 0 30 – business review 1 1 1 1 4 4. Public awareness 1.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 9.1 5. Platform Biologica 0.9 * * * 0.9 6. Fiscal: sustainable business allowance** 22 25 28 31 106 Total 75.1 72.1 64.6 65.2 277 * Based on project funding from public awareness budget. ** The structural part of the sustainable business allowance for organic agriculture amounts to an annual 75 million guilders and will be reached in 2015.It is not known precisely how the other fiscal measures will affect organic agriculture. The tax benefit of the green investment scheme is currently estimated at over 10 million guilders per year. In addition to the instruments described above, organic agriculture can also benefit from other government subsidies, such as the future Agricultural Innovation Fund. New supplementary policy instruments and amendments to existing instruments must be submitted to the European Commission for approval before they are put into effect. Every effort will be made to make the best possible use of opportunities for European co-financing for new policy instruments. During the lifetime of the Policy Document the progress of the incentive schemes will be broadly monitored. An initial part of the process, the development of business plans, will be evaluated in 2001, following which, in 2004, a final evaluation will be carried out and the results submitted to the House. The House will also receive a progress report annually in May on the implementation of the Policy Document. Annex: Current status of organic agriculture in the Netherlands The Policy Document on Organic Agriculture states that the organic sector has witnessed strong growth in recent years. This is confirmed by the statistics given in this annex. Consumption and retail ConsumptionIn general it may be concluded that both production and consumption of organic products represent around 1% of total production and consumption in the Netherlands. Yoghurt is a positive exception with a market share of 2.6% in 1999. In other European countries organic products also account for around 1% of food consumption. Notable exceptions are Germany (2.5%), Denmark (3%) and Austria (5%). It is striking that the Netherlands imports the majority of organic products from abroad. Of these imports, 80% are re-exported. A proportion of Dutch production is also exported. The UK in particular is a lucrative target market.Source :N.M. van der Grijp, F. de Hond : Green supply chain initiatives in the European food and retailing industry (1999) Institute for Environmental Studies (VU Amsterdam); EKO-monitor, Platform Biologica Retail The total retail turnover of organic products in the Netherlands has risen steeply in recent years (in NLG millions): 1997 375 1998 440 1999 515 Source: EKO-monitor, January 2000, Platform Biologica The total food turnover in the Dutch retail trade was 45.9 thousand million guilders in 1999, with organic products accounting for 1.1%.Source: CBL The number of points of sale has also risen steeply. The number of supermarkets stocking over 15 organic products increased from 70 in 1995 to over 4,000 in 1999. The number of wholefood shops has also risen over the same period from 280 to over 400 and the number of pre-purchase schemes (organic box schemes) has risen from 4,000 to 44,000.Currently 60% of consumers buy their organic produce in supermarkets, 30% in wholefood shops, and 15% direct from the farmer or from farmers markets. Since a proportion of consumers buy from more than one outlet, the total exceeds 100%.Source: Evaluatie Plan van aanpak biologische landbouw 1997 – 1999 (Evaluation of Organic Agriculture Action Plan 1997 – 1999) Processing companies Since 1996 the number of businesses in processing and preparation of organic products has increased by 350. Currently 780 organic processors are registered in the Netherlands. These are industrial and craft companies, importers and service companies.Source: EKO-monitor, May 2000, Platform Biologica Primary organic companies In 1999 organic production methods were applied in 1216 businesses (1.2% of the total number of primary producers). Of these 280 companies were in transition. During the period of the Action Plan (1996 to 1999 inclusive) the land devoted to organic agriculture increased by more than 10,000 hectares, to 22,997 hectares (1.2% of total agricultural land area).CBS figures show that in the period 1996-1999, 61% of the increase in land devoted to organic agriculture area was in dairy farming, 34% in arable and 5% in horticulture. Distribution of companies per sector in percentages (1999): Horticulture 24.5 Fruit growing 6.0 Arable farming 24.0 Livestock 42.0 Other (incl. mushrooms and plant material) 3.5 Source : EKO-monitor, January 2000, Platform Biologica; Evaluatie Plan van aanpak biologische landbouw 1997 – 1999 (Evaluation of Organic Agriculture Action Plan 1997 – 1999) Some sectors The figures below relate to the development of organic agriculture broken down into various sectors. Although the same statistics are not available for all sectors, this still provides a rough picture of the growth of organic agriculture. Dairy 1997 1998 2001 (projection) number of cattle farmers 120 175 340 milk delivery (in millions of litres) 33 50 98 percentage of total 0.3 0.5 1.0 Market share (as a percentage) of organic dairy produce compared with total consumption of fresh dairy products: total yoghurt (butter)milk custard 1998 (to end of 3rd quarter) : 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 1999 (to end of 3rd quarter) : 1.8 2.6 2.1 0.4 Source: EKO-monitor, January 2000, Platform Biologica Pig farmingAt the end of 1999 there were 9,000 organic heavy baconer places and 1,200 sow places (35 farms) in the Netherlands. 23,000 organic pigs were slaughtered in 1999. 4,000 organic pigs were imported over the same period.Demand for pre-packed meat for supermarkets is rising steadily.Source: EKO-monitor, May 2000, Platform Biologica Egg productionIn May 2000 the organic poultry stock consisted of around 90,000 chickens. This is around 0.5% of total egg production. Last year there were 50,000 organic chickens.Source: EKO-monitor, May 2000, Platform Biologica Potatoes, vegetables and fruit (PVF)According to the CBL the market share of organic potato, vegetable and fruit products in supermarkets is currently around 5% and will rise to 10%.Source: EKO-monitor, January 2000, Platform Biologica From 1996 to 1999, the area under arable crops grew from 5115 hectares to 6661 hectares, a rise of 30%. This growth is mainly due to the increase in the amount of land devoted to fodder crops (maize, alfalfa and cereals). The area under horticulture rose in this period from 1086 to 1633 hectares, an increase of 50%.Source: CBS The area of potatoes increased by 55 hectares to 749 hectares between 1996 and 1998.Source: CBS Apples 1999 2000 (projection) total (May census) 12,084 ha organic 183 ha 300 ha share (%) of total Dutch acreage 1.5 2.5 Source: publication ‘Biologische groeistuipen'(Organic growing trends), March 2000, Rabobank Stafgroep Duurzame Ontwikkelingen (Rabobank Sustainable Development Group) Mushrooms 1999 2000 (projection) organic 30-40 ton / week 130-150 ton/week share (%) of total Dutch production 0.8 3 Source: publication ‘Biologische groeistuipen'(Organic growing trends), March 2000, Rabobank Stafgroep Duurzame Ontwikkelingen (Rabobank Sustainable Development Group) Visit also the conference about ‘the future of Food & Biotech’ and the sections with articles , books and links.
Content Q&A with Jeanine van de Wiel About the future of Food & Biotech News about the Future lBiotech Start-Up Recommended Book The Club of Amsterdam Roundtable: Karel van der Poel Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Q&A with Jeanine van de Wiel Jeanine van de Wiel Head of Unit, Safety Assessment of Novel Foods, Health Council of the Netherlands Club of Amsterdam:Can the government guarantee food safety?Jeanine van de Wiel: There is extended legislation and enforcement, education and communication effected by the government to realize food safety. Not only at the national level but also at EU level and worldwide in the Codex Alimentarius standards for food safety are set. Apart from that new risks can emerge and it can take time to develop an adequat policy to counterbalance these new risks. The actual production and sales of food stuffs are in the hands of many different enterprises and food processing is done by catering business and consumers themselfs. So there is a certain vulnerability of the system. As in all human society systems. How will consumers benefit from novel foods?Jeanine van de Wiel: In the same way as they benefit from old foods. Plus possibly environmental stress resistant crops in areas that have now bad agriculture opportunities, less herbicide residues, custom made nutritional profiles, taste improvements (due to novel processes) etc etc. Can Europe or The Netherlands play an independent role in a global market?Jeanine van de Wiel: There is always room for a nation or Europe as a whole to use their own arguments to yes or no allow certain products or production methods within their boundaries. The precautionary principle is recognized world wide. But it has to be used proportional to the – perceived – risk. Join our Club of Amsterdam Event aboutthe future of Food & Biotech on October 28, 18:30-22:15! About the future of Food & Biotech 20 Questions on Genetically Modified (GM) Foodsby the World Health OrganizationThese questions and answers have been prepared by WHO in response to questions and concerns by a number of WHO Member State Governments with regard to the nature and safety of genetically modified food. An organic market to conquer by the Dutch by Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food QualityThis policy document on Food Production and Rural Areas (Voedsel en Groen) focuses on the change in thinking about the agricultural sector. It is not concerned solely with primary agriculture, but with the whole chain from primary sector to consumer. This agrifood complex is characterised by socially responsible business practice, a high level of knowledge and innovative strength and is thus a world market leader. A demand-centred approach is essential since the agrifood complex is driven by the wishes of citizens and consumers. News about the Future Nanotechnology for Energy Prosperityby Richard E. Smalley, Ph.D., Nobel Laureate, University Professor, Rice University Energy is likely to be the single most critical factor affecting worldwide prosperity in this next century. Within the next few decades as production of oil and gas peaks and then begins to decline (even though world population-driven demand for energy continues to increase) we are going to have to find vast amounts of energy from one or more sources, capable of at least 10 terawatts (TW) of low cost, clean, sustainable power. Assuming that we don’t do this with 10,000 nuclear breeder reactors, this 10TW challenge simply cannot be met with our current science base. To get that 10 TW we will need revolutionary advances in the core technologies that underlie solar power; wind turbines; deep drilling to mine the heat of the earth; carbon sequestration; hydrogen production, transport and storage; fuel cells; batteries; flywheels; electric power transmission systems; robotics; and super strong, light weight materials for every moving thing from cars to rockets to satellites. Nanotechnology will be at the core of all these revolutions. GLOBAL ECONOMYKNOWLEDGE SOCIETY World Development Report 2003: Sustainable Development in a Dynamic WorldThe next 50 years could see a fourfold increase in the size of the global economy and significant reductions in poverty but only if governments act now to avert a growing risk of severe damage to the environment and profound social unrest. Without better policies and institutions, social and environmental strains may derail development progress, leading to higher poverty levels and a decline in the quality of life for everybody. Misguided policies and weak governance in past decades have contributed to environmental disasters, income inequality, and social upheaval in some countries, often resulting in deep deprivation, riots, or refugees fleeing famine or civil wars. Today, many poor people depend on fragile natural resources to survive. Similarly, trust between individuals, which can be eroded or destroyed by civic unrest, is a social asset with important economic benefits, since it enables people to make agreements and undertake transactions that would otherwise not be possible. Development polices need to be more sharply focused on protecting these natural and social assets. These are among the key findings of the World Development Report 2003. The report suggests new alliances are needed at the local, national and global levels to better address these problems. The report is now available on-line in a new form that includes a dynamic table-of-contents, improved search capability, and extensive links to supporting documents. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT Video on e-paper?How would you like to sit back in your favorite garden chair and browse through a holiday brochure with video clips that give you an enticing preview of your possible destinations? Or have the pleasure of curling up with a good book that’s actually a movie? Although such possibilities won’t come about tomorrow, Philips’ video-speed, electronic paper is an exciting concept that’s certain to fire the imagination of consumers and manufacturers alike. It is based on a technology called electrowetting, Philips’ new display concept. It’s a ‘reflective’ technology, which means just like paper it reflects ambient light. Unlike other types of display, if you’re in a well-lit space or outside, you can still see the display easily – from any angle and with the same high contrast. And it doesn’t need backlighting, in contrast to the LCDs currently used in mobile devices. “We’re still at the very early stages of development,” says Rob Hayes, one of the senior scientists at Philips Research involved in the project, “but we’ve had a fantastically positive reaction to the small demo screens we’ve created. And there are so many possibilities. Even in the age of screen-based media, people still like the physical pleasure and convenience of books and magazines, and with the continuing development of flexible electronics, we foresee this technology being used to put video displays on thin, flexible support media similar to paper.” Tuesday, October 28, 2003 Biotech Start-Up BioPartner Start-Up VenturesBioPartner Start-Up Ventures is a venture fund for life sciences start-ups. They invest up to a maximum of € 227,000 in life sciences start-up companies. An important condition for their investments is matching funds of private investors. Investments are provided in exchange for shares in the start-up company, or as a combination of shares and and a convertible loan. The fund of € 10.5 million is managed by Zernike Group B.V.http://www.biopartner.nl Recommended Book First Fruit: The Creation of the Flavr Savr Tomato and the Birth of Biotech Foodsby Belinda MartineauEngaging both sides of the agricultural biotech controversy and hoping to initiate a reasoned dialogue, geneticist Belinda Martineau explores the development and eventual failure of the Flavr Savr tomato in First Fruit. One of the Calgene scientists who worked on the tomato (the first genetically modified food on the market), she offers great insight into the scientific and business factors that drive the research and marketing of biotech products. Concerned about the eager and simplistic denial of most of her colleagues when faced with protests from consumer advocates, she wants to see more direct communication between the two sides.Using the story of Flavr Savr’s development, Martineau shows the reader both the quality of biotech research and the power of management to obfuscate or otherwise affect that work. Though straying into dead-end stories of her colleagues’ interactions a little too often, for the most part the narrative flows smoothly and draws the reader along swiftly to the tomato’s eventual, inevitable demise in the market. Ironically, the Flavr Savr failed more because it couldn’t live up to Calgene’s nearly messianic marketing than from any protester’s work, even if it did launch a few activists’ careers. Telling industry to pay more heed to honesty and research while suggesting that the public pursue better scientific education shouldn’t be asking too much – perhaps First Fruit will help de-escalate the debate. – Rob Lightner PricewaterhouseCoopers is a supporter of the Club of Amsterdam. The Club of Amsterdam Roundtable: Karel van der Poel Karel van der PoelCo-founder, CEO, Mirror42Member of the Club of Amsterdam Roundtable When one believes in Darwin’s theories of evolution, one views mankind as a product of evolution. Our ancestors Homo Habilis started to create tools in order to survive. We evolved, created more advanced tools, learned and documented our knowledge. Today, our knowledge has brought us to a turning point in evolution. Evolution of life on earth has evolved to the point that one of its “creations” (human species) can now influence evolution itself! (I like to call this proces: “New Nature”) With the human species understanding a little bit more about the building blocks of life everyday it will become more able to apply that knowledge and manipulate species, eventually our own! Evolution has very clear laws of what defines success and failure. A successful genetic change survives and its genes increase in the overall gene pool of the species, while unsuccessful changes die. Like evolution itself, “new nature” will create successful and unsuccessful changes to several species on earth (from crops to eventually humans). The question is if the human race will be willing to accept the laws of evolution in order to judge “new nature” creations. The results would be that stronger species would eventually dominate the gene pool and that “failures” die, how hard and difficult that might be. It would mean that eventually entire species will be altered forever and that new ones are created and todays ones will die out. Since evolution also has taught us that innovation is central in human evolution, we know that trying to stop these developments is probably impossible. It is in our genes. Therefore let us develop a vision on how to deal and live with the outcome that “new nature” is going to create. Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 October 28, 2003 the future of Food & Biotech November 27, 2003 the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry January 28, 2004 the future of the European Knowledge Society February 18, 2004 the future of Education & Learning March 31, 2004 the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy? April 28, 2004 the future of Healthcare & Technology May 19, 2004 the future of Architecture June 23, 2004 the future of Culture & Religion