Content The impact of culture on educationJanuary Event: the future of Urban MobilityFebruary Event: the future of Learning Meat AtlasArchitecture and urbanism as a potent lever to contribute to an ongoing paradigmatical shift in world balancesClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: Diversity Pedagogy: Examining the Role of Culture in the Teaching-Learning ProcessIlluminating textilesFuturist Portrait: Janna Quitney Anderson Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Our January Season Event is about the future of Urban Mobility, Thursday, January 30, 18:30 – 21:15.With Wim Korver, Head of Research & Development Unit, Goudappel Coffeng, Robert Dingemanse, Co-founder and CEO, PAL-V, Nick Cohn, Senior Business Developer, TomTom and Rohit Talwar, CEO, Fast Future Research andthe February Season Event is about the future of LearningThursday, February 27, 18:30 – 21:15A collaboration between THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership and the Club of Amsterdam Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman The impact of culture on education Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim InternationalCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. Can we introduce best practices in education across countries? As a result of globalization, many people are becoming interested in ranking systems which show how their own countries compare with others on a variety of measures. The World Economic Forum publishes an annual ranking of countries on economic competitiveness; the United Nations a ranking on human development; the OECD publishes comparisons on the quality of healthcare systems. Even a ranking system for “happiness” can be found. In this paper we will explore the outcome of ranking countries on the quality of education. In particular we will focus on a recent report “The Learning Curve” (2013) published by The Economist Magazine’s Intelligence Unit. In this report an attempt was made to look for “best practices” – approaches that systematically lead to higher quality education thereby enabling policy makers and practitioners in other countries to simply “copy and paste” and work towards educational reforms that have proven effective in raising educational achievement in some countries. The surprising conclusion from this report, however, is that almost no practices were found that could be implemented globally. The authors explain that while the inputs to education – like money, school choice, years in school, and teacher-pupil ratio’s – can be identified; and outputs can be compared looking at ranking systems on measures of literacy, numeracy, and educational attainment; what happens between input and output is very much a local issue. They describe this country-specific process as a “black box”, implying that there is no systematic way to describe how the differences in the teaching/learning process transforms inputs into outputs. We will show that well-researched systematic differences in value preferences across countries are vital for understanding the way teaching/learning processes are handled. Using the seminal work of Geert Hofstede on cultural differences, we will show that the five culture dimensions he found provides an analytical tool for understanding the local differences in educational policy and teaching methods in school systems. Based on this cross-cultural framework, we ask a fundamental question: is it possible to find best practices that work worldwide in spite of these value differences? In short this article attempts to:Summarize recent rankings of educational performance across countries and the influence of culture on these ranking systems. Describe what culture is and how it influences the way we educate and learn. Analyze “best practices”, i.e. can we export practices across cultures. Can we learn from each other while being so different? Enlarge the discussion of some key issues in education by incorporating a cultural perspective. I. Ranking educational systems worldwide In the field of education there are several systems used to compare educational quality across countries, including: Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS); Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMMS); and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). These approaches focus on benchmarking the factors leading to achievement and, more specifically, trying to identify what specific factors differentiate the highest achievers. As professor Schleicher (OECD) says: “education debates are no longer about the improvement by national standards. Best performing countries now set the tone”. Recently the Economist Intelligence Unit of the Economist Magazine published a new ranking system: the Learning Curve Data Bank LCDB: country performance in education. This report outlines the main findings from a large body of internationally comparable education data. In the report they provide an overall ranking (column 1) by comparing cognitive skills attainment (column 2) which combines the results from the PIRLS, TIMMS and Pisa systems, and scores of countries on the highest degree of education individuals complete: “educational attainment” (column 3). The top 20 countries are shown below: The most interesting result of the analyses, as summarized in this report, is “how few correlations there are”. In order to explain this result, one observation is that in any number of surveys researchers measure what is measurable. Usually inputs are identified more than outputs because they are simpler and easier to measure. However, the “softer” inputs of education tend to be left out. The authors conclude: “These inputs, however can be crucial, such as the cultural context in which education occurs.” The difficulty the writers admit is: “how do you disentangle deeply embedded cultural values from social and educational policies?” The quality and approach of teachers plays a big role in this. Teachers are key transmitters of cultural values. Much research has focused on: “what education systems can do to ensure that they find teachers who add value”. But even here the report concludes that “the rules tend to be country specific.” The how and what of education is very much connected to the culture of the country at hand. A lot of different ideas exist about the role and position of the teacher as well as expectations around the “right” behavior of students. These key elements again are highly linked to cultural values. In the Economist report culture is discussed only in a very generic way. Education remains, in the words of The Economist, “a black box (*5) in which inputs are turned into outputs in ways that are difficult to predict or quantify consistently. Looking at the black box above, we believe that it can be opened. We will outline how culture can be used as the key. Culture, however, is a vague term and is used in very different ways. II. What is culture? How does culture influence the learning process? a. About culture: the research of Geert Hofstede We will first delve a little bit deeper in this notion of “culture”. As a starting point we take the results of the scientific research by professor Geert Hofstede. Hofstede is widely recognized as the one who did the most fundamental research on cultural differences(*6,7,8,9). He defines culture as “the collective programming of the mind that distinguishes the members of one group or category of people from others”. Hofstede carried out fundamental research into the dominant values of countries and the way in which they influence behavior in organizations. Original data were based on an extensive IBM database for which 116,000 questionnaires were used in 72 countries and in 20 languages. The results of his research were validated against about 40 cross-cultural studies from a variety of disciplines. Analyzing his data, Hofstede found five value clusters (or “dimensions”) being the most fundamental in understanding and explaining the differences in answers to the single questions in his questionnaires. He measured the differences and calculated scores for 56 countries on these 5 dimensions. Later research, partly done by others have extended this to about a 100 countries. The combined scores for each country explain variations in behavior of people and organizations. The scores indicate the relative differences between cultures. The five dimensions of national culture identified by Hofstede are: Power Distance Index (PDI) Individualism vs. collectivism (IDV) Masculinity vs. femininity (MAS) Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI) Long Term Orientation (LTO) Country scores on each dimension are ranked from low to high, i.e. from 0 to 100. Please note that the score of a country is not meant to imply that everyone in a particular society is programmed in exactly the same way. There are considerable individual differences. But when fundamental values of various societies are compared, ‘majority preferences’ are found to exist, which occur again and again as a result of the way children are brought up by their parents and the educational system. And when we examine how societies organize themselves, these majority preferences turn out to have a modifying influence at all levels. They have an influence on the ways teacher and students are expected to behave. Even the ideas of the objectives of education are stated in different ways. For example in some countries the objective of education is: to develop a critical mind, which in other cultures is viewed as absurd. In these countries students are supposed to try to learn as much as possible from the older generation and only when you are fully initiated you may communicate to have ideas of yourself. […] Read the full article click here Huib Wursten is a speaker at the future of Learning January Event: the future of Urban Mobility the future of Urban Mobility Thursday, January 30, 2013, 18:30 – 21:15Location: Info.nl- Sint Antoniesbreestraat 16, 1011 HB Amsterdam [Next to Nieuwmarkt]This event is supported by Info.nl & TPEX (TelePresence EXchange International) The speakers and topics are Wim Korver, Head of Research & Development Unit, Goudappel CoffengThe 21 century: the end of the car mobility as we know it Robert Dingemanse, Co-founder and CEO, PAL-VFlying cars, how will it affect future mobility? Nick Cohn, Senior Business Developer, TomTomTomTom on Urban Mobility: The Future is Now Rohit Talwar, CEO, Fast Future ResearchGlobal Forces Shaping Urban Mobility February Event: the future of Learning the future of LearningThe impact of culture on teaching and early learning. Thursday, February 27, 2014, 18:30–21:15Location: THNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam (Westergasfabriek)The conference language is English. A collaboration between THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership and the Club of Amsterdam. Our event will take inspiration and use elements of the THNK Forum format which is designed to deepen dialogue and elevate discussion by asking questions and re-framing issues to lead to surprising insights. Beyond the lecture model The traditional way to impart knowledge has been the lecture and question-and-answer session. The message is usually completely fixed before it is communicated. The question-and-answer session allows the audience to get clarification and to put in critical comments. But it is also often unfocused, because questions are dealt with haphazardly as they are raised. Going out of our comfort zone Participants ask the questions and structure the dialogue; they share the responsibility for an interesting outcome. It requires commitment and courage. The experts in creative leadership are encouraged to ask questions of the participants, to make it a true dialogue; this means it’s a two-way street, and participants need to abandon the comfortable position of being the only ones asking questions. Our “thought starters” are: Emer Beamer, Social Designer and Educator. Founder at Unexpect, co-founder at Butterfly Works and NairoBitsEducation’s Blind Spots Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim InternationalCan we introduce “best practices” in education across countries? Meat Atlas Meat Atlas: facts and figures about the animals we eatby Heinrich Böll Foundation and Friends of the Earth Europe How overconsumption and intensive meat production wrecks the planet Intensive meat and dairy production is having an increasingly devastating impact on society and the environment. The way we produce and consume meat and dairy needs a radical rethink. Our industrialised production system is untenable, according to the report, since it depends on scarce land and water resources, and passes on hidden costs to the consumer. Curbs on corporate control over food need to be implemented, it says, to reduce the impact on society and the environment. The Meat Atlas aims to catalyse the debate over the need for better, safer and more sustainable food and farming and advocates clear individual and political solutions. Adrian Bebb, senior food, agriculture and biodiversity campaigner for Friends of the Earth Europe said: “Diet is no longer a private matter. Every time we eat, we are making a political choice, and we are impacting upon the lives of people around the world, on the environment, biodiversity and the climate. Huge amounts of resources go into the food on our plates. Sustainable alternatives exist to the dominant destructive, corporate-controlled and intensive global system for producing and consuming meat.” The report outlines the impact of intensive meat and dairy production on freshwater usage and land. Worldwide agriculture consumes 70% of available freshwater, one third of which goes towards raising livestock. The increasingly intensive livestock sector is also one of largest consumers of land and edible crops, with more than 40% of the annual output of wheat, rye, oats and maize used for animal feed, and with one third of the world’s 14 billion hectares of cultivated land used to grow it. To produce a kilo of beef requires 15,500 litres of water – the same amount required to produce 12 kilos of wheat or 118 kilos of carrots. To make a hamburger requires more than 3.5 square metres of land. Barbara Unmüßig, President Heinrich Böll Foundation: “Intensive meat production isn’t just torture for animals. It destroys the environment, and devours great chunks of our raw materials which we import from the global South as animal feed. After China, Europe is the biggest importer of soya. Argentina and Brazil are dramatically increasing their soya cultivation, and it’s being fed almost exclusively to the animals we slaughter. Rising meat consumption is forcing up land prices. This has devastating consequences: Nearly a third of the world’s land is being used to grow animal feed. Meanwhile, small farmers are losing their land and their livelihoods. That schnitzel on our plates jeopardises the food security of many people in the global South.” The report also warns that the trade talks between the EU and the US risk pushing food and farming standards down on both sides of the Atlantic. Big food and biotech companies want to lift EU restrictions on genetically modified (GM) foods and animal feeds, and are challenging consumer labelling laws. They also want to undermine the EU’s ‘precautionary principle’ which sets food safety standards, and aim to further globalise and industrialise the meat industry. There are solutions, and the organisations urge legislators to reform the livestock sector. The Sustainable Food Communication, due to be launched by the European Commission in spring 2014, should address dietary issues, underlining the basic right to a nutritious diet based on seasonal and local food, which is grown sustainably, respects cultural diversity, and includes a smaller daily intake of good quality meat, according to the organisations. Architecture and urbanism as a potent lever to contribute to an ongoing paradigmatical shift in world balances BC architects and studies is one group trying to conceive, create and practice architecture and urbanism as a potent lever to contribute to an ongoing paradigmatical shift in world balances. “We prefer to work with ecological materials such as wood, straw bale, earth and stone construction, in a contemporary architecture and a well-considered design. Since one spends his or her time living and sleeping mainly inside buildings, we have minute attention for the health effects of construction techniques and materials. We advice self-builders in the design and construction of their home, as well as we love to make renovations or additions to existing buildings.” Library of MuyingaBurundiThe first library of Muyinga, part of a future inclusive school for deaf children, in locally sourced compressed earth blocks, built with a participatory approach. Sama & KasaNiamey, NigerAn extension of the MNBH museum of earth architecture Sama & Kasa (high and low in the Haoussa language) is the project we presented for the pavilion, to promote earth architecture, in the national museum Boubou-Hama in Niamey. Logically the project was inspired by the vernacular architecture of Niger. It contains characteristics of traditional materials, techniques and forms to obtain a contemporary architecture in harmony with the local culture. Lalibela, Ethiopia8 Eco-tourism Hotel rooms The Ben Abeba ‘rock hewn hotel rooms’ project aims at creating a contemporary and ecologically sensitive architecture inspired by the power of expression of the historical rock hewn churches in the town of Lalibela. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy ICT4D: Top trends for 2014by Madanmohan Rao TPP — copyright versus free speechby Annie Machon, Director, LEAP Europe. Formerly MI5 Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian Priorities for 2030by Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok, Vladimir Mesropyan A couple of billion reasons why Africa is a priority for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. The road to nowhereby Michael Akerib Demography and Hegemonyby Michael Akerib Navigating the Transitionby Chris Thomson Will Green Buildings Helpby Mike Rana, Published Author, Speaker, Software Engineer Shaping our Future Evolutionby Chris Thomson News about the Future Pakistan’s Internet Landscape A report by Bytes for All, Pakistan – a human rights organization with a focus on Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs). Pakistan’s Internet revolution is a story of unprecedented, sometimes contentious change, as this medium of communication and information gains popularity in a largely conservative society. A country that has always struggled with freedom of speech and access to information has, at the same time, come to cherish the freedom it has found to interact, communicate and stay informed online. With Internet penetration growing daily, there is great need for further discourse on the impact of the internet, examined in a local context, especially in relation to the state’s increasing attempts to regulate and control cyberspace. The Pakistan Internet landscape report aims to fuel that discourse, and will serve as a reference point for the ongoing debate on Pakistan’s online space. The report outlines Internet control mechanisms deployed by the government, and highlights existing legislation and its application in relation to the internet. It provides a historical perspective of Internet censorship in Pakistan and the move to criminalize legitimate expression online. It also outlines the state of internet surveillance, means deployed, and the purpose and impact of such monitoring. Lastly, the report maps the existing Internet governance infrastructure and examines different stakeholders’ roles including those of government bodies, the military, businesses, politicians, the judiciary and radical religious groups, among others. The role of civil society is also examined, with a discussion on the effectiveness of citizens and organizations involved in the online space. RoboEarth: ‘Wikipedia for Robots’ At its core, RoboEarth is a World Wide Web for robots: a giant network and database repository where robots can share information and learn from each other about their behavior and their environment. Bringing a new meaning to the phrase “experience is the best teacher”, the goal of RoboEarth is to allow robotic systems to benefit from the experience of other robots, paving the way for rapid advances in machine cognition and behaviour, and ultimately, for more subtle and sophisticated human-machine interaction. Recommended Book Diversity Pedagogy: Examining the Role of Culture in the Teaching-Learning Processby Rosa Hernandez Sheets (Author) Written by a powerful new voice in the field of multicultural education, Rosa Hernandez Sheets draws from her extensive teaching experience in urban schools to examine the learning issues of diverse student populations from pre-school to high school. The first in its field to demonstrate and explicate the interconnectedness of culture and cognition to the teaching-learning process, Diversity Pedagogy: Examining The Role Of Culture In The Teaching-Learning Process promotes successful services for more students, especially those from underserved communities. This text introduces a new theory – diversity pedagogy – constructs explicit applications to practice by providing examples of real-life classroom situations throughout, ultimately uniting schooling, culture, and psychology. Illuminating textiles eLumino – a symbiosis of fabric and light Création Baumann, a Swiss innovative textile specialist, artistically fuses refined weaves and light. “eLumino” is an exclusive textile product with embroidered LED elements that shine, glow or shimmer depending upon the desired look and which can even be dimmed. When the two most sensuous furnishing elements, fabric and light, are fused together the result is a work of art, a symbiosis of a soft fluid weave and atmospheric lighting. An ingenious light emitting curtain fabric which can be cut to size and processed into curtaining that is so much more than mere window dressing. It started with the creative design team’s long coveted wish for a harmonious fusion of light and textile. Again and again attempts and fascinating experiments emerged. Finally LED technology facilitated a union which met the exacting standards of Création Baumann products both aesthetically and technically. The technology was developed in a research project in close co-operation with several partners, which included the company Forster Rohner AG and the Lucerne University of Applied Science and Arts. Within the embroidery integrated strip conductors and LED elements generate a decorative pattern of spots of light on the fabric that dim to three different levels of intensity. “eLumino” has a cable which terminates in a USB plug for connection to the power supply, but can also be operated by batteries. Two fabric qualities display different designs. “eLumino Aves” is a metallic, soft shimmering, opaque weave, which can be sculptured and draped. The pattern spreads in a wide linear border along the lower third of the curtain. The second design “eLumino Sema” dances freely and dreamily in waves across the delicate and soft transparent voile. “eLumino“ can be used for stylish staging, in a sea of light or as an individual panel in combination with the harmonised uni fabrics “Aves“ and “Sema“. The innovative light emitting textiles conjure a wealth of ambiance and sensuality into an apartment. The dimmable light displays and the flowing fluid fabric generate textile light sculptures. Futurist Portrait: Janna Quitney Anderson Janna Quitney Anderson, M.A. is Associate Professor and Director of the Imagining the Internet Center at Elon University. She is also Lead author of the Pew Internet & American Life Project “Future of the Internet” surveys. Imagining the Internet explores and provides insights into the impact of Internet evolution. It exposes future possibilities and provides a peek at the past. Here you will find the words of many thousands of people from every corner of the world, from today and yesterday, sharing thoughts about the likely future of humankind. Her 6,500-plus-page Imagining the Internet resource offers thousands of expert predictions about the future of information / communications, and a section that allows anyone anywhere to add predictions to the site. It also offers survey data, videos, audio files, extensive sections on the future of the world and the past history of communications, a KidZone, and a Teachers’ Tips section. The site has won international acclaim, including coverage in the New York Times and other national and international news outlets. Janna Anderson in an interview by FUTURIST senior editor Patrick Tucker:“I do believe that a face-to-face setting is an important element of learning. The era of hyperconnectivity will require that most professionals weave their careers and personal lives into a blended mosaic of activity. Work and leisure will be interlaced throughout waking hours, every day of the week. We need to move away from the format of school time and non-school time, which is no longer necessary. It was invented to facilitate the agrarian and industrial economies. Faculty, teachers, and principals could inform students that they expect them to learn outside of the classroom and beyond homework assignments. The Internet plays a key role in that. Rather than classrooms, one can see the possible emergence of learning centers where students with no Internet access at home can go online, but everyone will be working on a different project, not on the same lesson. You can also imagine students making use of mobile and wireless technology for purposes of learning. More importantly, we need to teach kids to value self-directed learning, teach them how to learn on their own terms, and how to create an individual time schedule. We need to combine face time with learning online. And we can’t be afraid to use the popular platforms like text-messaging and social networks. As those tools become more immersive, students will feel empowered and motivated to learn on their own – more so than when they were stuck behind a desk.” The Future of the Internet and Communications Agenda Season Events 2013 / 2014 January 30, 2014the future of Urban MobilityLocation: Info.nl, Sint Antoniesbreestraat 16, 1011 HB Amsterdam [Next to Nieuwmarkt]This event is supported by Info.nl & TPEX (TelePresence EXchange International) February 27, 2014the future of LearningThe impact of culture on teaching and early learning.Location: THNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam (Westergasfabriek)A collaboration between THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership and the Club of Amsterdam March 27, 2014the future ofCreativity, Arts & ConsciousnessMarch 27, 2014, 18:30 – 21:15 (Amsterdam time)Location: Mediamatic, Van Gendthallen (next to Roest), VOC-kade 10, AmsterdamCo-location: The Vortex Dome, Los AngelesA collaboration between c3: Center for Conscious Creativity, Vortex Immersion Media, TPEX and the Club of Amsterdam April 24, 2014the future of Women in Business May 29, 2014the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings.Location: Geelvinck Museum, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS AmsterdamA collaboration between Geelvinck Museum and the Club of Amsterdam June 26, 2013the future of Transformation Special Supporters
Content Humanity and the Era of ArtFebruary Event: the future of LearningMarch Event: the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness Manifesto: Crisis as catalyst. Risk as renewalFlowers that generate heatClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: Chaos, Creativity, and Cosmic ConsciousnessThe Letters of UtrechtFuturist Portrait: Jerome C. Glenn Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Our February Season Event is about the future of Learning, Thursday, February 27, 18:30 – 21:15.A collaboration between THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership and the Club of Amsterdam and in March the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness, Thursday, March 27, 2014An event in Amsterdam and Los Angeles!A collaboration between c3: Center for Conscious Creativity and Vortex Immersion Media in Los Angeles and the Club of Amsterdam.The event is supported by TPEX (TelePresence EXchange International) Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Humanity and the Era of Art by Rosana AgudoKeynote address, II International Dreams in Action Unconference:“Living in the Era of Art”, Bilbao 13-12-13 THE BUTTERFLY AS A SYMBOL OF THE II UNCONFERENCE “Scientific investigations have shown that the Butterfly is the only living creature capable of changing its genetic structure completely during its process of transformation: The DNA of the caterpillar that enters the cocoon is different from the Butterfly that emerges from it. Thus, it is the symbol of total transformation. The Butterfly represents the need for change and increasing liberty as well as courage: we need courage to carry out the changes required by our growth process. According to ancestral tradition, its medicine is related to air and the power of the mind. It shows us how to find clarity in our mental processes, for organizing projects or discovering the next step in our inner growth, such that: The egg is the beginning, the birth of an idea or project. The larva is the decision to manifest something in the physical world. The cocoon represents the need to “go inside”, be it for inner reflection or for the development of a project. And the breaking open of the cocoon signifies sharing with the world the splendor of the new creation.” “The flutter of a butterfly’s wingscan be felt on the other side of the world.” It is said of the era we are entering now:“THIS ISN’T AN ERA OF CHANGE, BUT THE CHANGE OF AN ERA” But who changes from one era to the next? How is this done? Who or what changes the era? How will we notice it? Why do we say this? What does it mean? HUMANITY AND THE ERA OF ART What is humanity? Humanity is a term that refers exclusively to the human sphere, that is, to people. When we refer to humanity in holistic terms, we are only talking about what concerns us, about what concerns the human species. We tend to forget the existence of other worlds and other creatures that share the planet with us, and that are evolving along with us. On this blessed planet matter evolves, life evolves, the mind evolves and the spirit evolves. But now let us talk about Humanity. We, humans, men and women, are creatures who are evolving by way of the kind of mind that we call “rational”. We are capable of thinking, and have developed a unique way of communicating, called language, and beyond that, writing. We are also capable of locating ourselves in time and space; we have developed a system called “history” that lets us place our eternal wanderings in a structure that allows us to situate ourselves and use our organism in a healthy fashion. In this respect, Ramesh Balsekar tells us: “We need space so that things can unfold. And we need time so that we can perceive, recognize and measure, in terms of duration, the existence of each object and each occurrence”. For a very long time now, especially since the era of industrialization, we have been functioning more and more intensely with the dyadTIME = MONEY. But for the “next octave”, so to speak, that we are now approaching and that is so much more subtle to us human beings, the dyad is:TIME = ART. And now is the moment to understand Art in a new, surprising way and to live it intensely, not by putting our energy into fighting the status quo – that would only retain it and waste it – but rather, by supporting with all our means that which elevates it. In his novel “Momo”, Michael Ende tells us:“The more time you have inside you, the older you get.” Each one of us has the opportunity to decide whether to use the time we accumulate to grow old, or to convert it into art. And this art is not only within the person who creates it or executes it but also in the eyes that contemplate it. To awaken “the eye for beauty” is to convert time into art. Humanity advances; it evolves as a Totality. Humanity is a being of interdependent cells. These cells need each other in order to configure the Totality they belong to and to show and to unfold themselves in infinite diversity. At the same time, these cells are inter-INdependent because each one represents, and at the same time, is the Totality to which it belongs. At increasing levels of consciousness these person-cells are becoming more and more aware of themselves and of their surroundings. The Hindu philosopher, Sri Aurobindo, tells us, “There are three kinds of humans evolving simultaneously on the planet: the human animal, the human, and the human being.” These three types coexist within each one of us. We evolve from one to the other as we grow in consciousness and, of course, in our aspiration for beauty. To become conscious of ourselves means we realize that we belong to a Totality that embraces us, that exceeds us and that each cell, each one of us, each person, in our heart of hearts, aspires to find and towards which we are nudged along by a fundamental law of evolution: To know we are part of something greater and more all encompassing and to aspire to become one with That. Sri Aurobindo also tells us: “He or she who aspires to the Infinite, has been chosen by the Infinite.” Each one of us is, and at the same time forms part of Humanity. Humanity, in this moment of universal history, is experiencing, in its natural evolutionary process, a phase of maturity towards increasing sensibility and refinement. As does all creation, humanity aspires towards perfection for good and for evil. All humanity aspires towards Beauty, towards Harmony and towards Equilibrium. And as a consequence, all contraries manifest themselves. Some person-cells feel the impulse and the call of Humanity in various ways and at different levels as a personal aspiration and force. We participate in evolution in diverse fashions and in a myriad of social spheres and in the creation of the surroundings needed by this more refined and subtle creature, that we are and of which we form part. The decisive step forward for Humanity will take place when a critical mass of person-cells acquires this self-awareness and begins to participate voluntarily in the evolutionary process, following the impulse that, at the same time, along the way and by taking action, will make us more and more subtle and increasingly awakened to beauty. “The value of education is not the learning of many facts but the training of the mind to think.” Albert Einstein (Remember that our species evolves through the mind.) One of the tasks at hand for education, and not just formal education, is to awaken the eye for beauty. Parents, adults, who are awakened to beauty, transmit the ability to comprehend, observe and enjoy beauty in all its forms to their children. To learn to learn, to comprehend life and the beauty of the “cosmic plan”, the interaction and fraternity among all life on the planet and with Mother Earth herself, nurturer of our experience and our evolution within her… This, the best legacy we can leave to future generations, will lead evolutionarily to an accelerated improvement of the species. It will lead to the destiny promised to humanity. The Objective of the Era of Art is to create beauty and harmony, and in the process, generate economy. When Art is seen only as a business, as is now the case in our society, it loses its transformative capability, its power to touch the soul of society. We observe that because art has the capacity to touch the soul and generate transformation, the economic and financial system with its alienating values that rules society, in an effort to maintain its supremacy at any cost, undermines artistic expression, banishing art, culture, to an underworld where it is reduced to a superfluous hobby, a past time. Artists, for their part, people who care greatly about their work, who cultivate their passion, are made to be seen as rare specimens touched by a special grace that is inaccessible to the rest of us – that is, if they are not labeled as lazy, useless and a burden to society. In spite of all this, if we resist fighting against the system, we can use our energy to support, with all our strength and capabilities, that which elevates the soul of society, that which permits creativity. We can learn to be amazed by the new, to generate new projects in other directions, with other objectives, for which money is a tool, a means and a consequence of a job well done. The Era of Art, will bring wealth and prosperity to the world but no longer will money be made at Art’s expense. In the Era of Art, necessities will no longer be generated as the consumer society has been doing for so long. Instead, we will satisfy insufficiencies. Our attention will be directed at generating a healthier and more intelligent society, rather than one that becomes more and more needy, in the most ample sense of the word. Physical and emotional pain are inherent in the process of self-regeneration of our human condition but poverty, extreme need, and senseless violence are the consequence of the perversion of some of Humanity’s person-cells and these are destined to be cured or will become extinct in a natural fashion when the evolved person-cells take action once having achieved their critical mass. To live in the Era of Art is, therefore, the experience of learning to create wealth through all the manifestations of action. In this era, wealth is conceived to be a consequence of the aspiration towards harmony and beauty and will generate an economy that, in turn, promotes the genuine expression of each capability for the satisfaction of each of society’s needs. And this is Art. Returning to the questions posed above: for us the era will change when a certain number of human beings have made a quantum leap in consciousness. We change the era in our aspiration to become one with that which embraces us, with that we form a part of and at the same time are. We change the era when we comprehend the power of the paradox that confronts the opposites, that generates pain and paralyzes the evolution of action. We change the era when we decisively support those aims we believe to be the highest and that will generate the most wealth in realms impoverished by lack of diversity. Finally, because the aspiration precedes the thought, the thought precedes the idea and the idea precedes the word, the Era of Art is manifesting and this II Unconference is its expression in this physical space with all of you here present and contributing your active and voluntary participation. Infinite thanks to all of you, Artlivingmakers, pioneers and promoters of the Era of Art. THE ERA OF ARTAND PERFECTION IN SERVICE The Club of Amsterdam has been a partner in this conference. February Event: the future of Learning the future of LearningThe impact of culture on teaching and early learning.Thursday, February 27, 2014, 18:30–21:15Location: THNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam (Westergasfabriek)The conference language is English. A collaboration between THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership and the Club of Amsterdam. Our event will take inspiration and use elements of the THNK Forum format which is designed to deepen dialogue and elevate discussion by asking questions and re-framing issues to lead to surprising insights. Beyond the lecture modelThe traditional way to impart knowledge has been the lecture and question-and-answer session. The message is usually completely fixed before it is communicated. The question-and-answer session allows the audience to get clarification and to put in critical comments. But it is also often unfocused, because questions are dealt with haphazardly as they are raised. Going out of our comfort zoneParticipants ask the questions and structure the dialogue; they share the responsibility for an interesting outcome. It requires commitment and courage. The experts in creative leadership are encouraged to ask questions of the participants, to make it a true dialogue; this means it’s a two-way street, and participants need to abandon the comfortable position of being the only ones asking questions. Our “thought starters” are: Emer Beamer, Social Designer and Educator. Founder at Unexpect, co-founder at Butterfly Works and NairoBitsEducation’s Blind Spots Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim InternationalCan we introduce “best practices” in education across countries? March Event: the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness, Thursday, March 27, 2014Location in Amsterdam: Mediamatic, Van Gendthallen (next to Roest), VOC-kade 10, AmsterdamThe conference language is English.A collaboration between c3: Center for Conscious Creativity and Vortex Immersion Media in Los Angeles and the Club of Amsterdam.The event is supported by TPEX (TelePresence EXchange International) For information about the event in Los Angeles, March 27, 9:30am – 12:15 (Los Angeles time), seeThe Vortex Dome, www.thevortexdome.com Humanity has been creating culture and telling stories since the days of early humans when man applied pigments to the walls of caves and told stories around the campfire. Stories are the river that runs through time and the tools and technologies that we design become the rivulets, streams and whirlpools that give us new ways to express our experiences. The human genius has created such fantastic ways to express and share creativity — from music, dance, poetry, visual art and architecture to the book to the theater, from radio to cinema, television, and now the worldwide web and beyond…we now have the tools and the ability to express our stories and culture on a global level. At the same time we are learning more about the nature of the brain and human consciousness. We are unlocking the mysteries of spiritual traditions and discovering the power of meditation to activate greater awareness and health. We are learning how the arts and media effect us and how we can effect others with our art and stories. Where are we headed? Let’s explore possibilities…. The speakers and topics are Los AngelesKate McCallum, Founder, c3: Center for Conscious Creativity, Vice President, Vortex Immersion Media, IncTransmedia, Transformation and the Future of Content AmsterdamFelix B Bopp, Chairman, Club of AmsterdamTravelling in Space and Time – a personal journey Los AngelesEd Lantz, President and CTO of Vortex Immersion Media, IncImmersive Media, Art and Consciousness AmsterdamJack Gallagher, Artistic Director, Bodies AnonymousVigorous Risk and our moderator in Amsterdam isPaul Hughes, Ten Meters of Thinking Part IIOpen discussionAmsterdam connects with Los Angeles … a dialogue between the two cities Exhibition in Amsterdam withRoni Peled, Jelena Popadic, Job Romijn, Robert Shepherd, Winston Nanlohy, … Manifesto crisis as catalyst. Risks as renewalold Manifesto: Crisis as catalyst. Risk as renewal.by Noah Raford Classical strategic planning is based upon the assumption of a slowly changing future. That assumption is wrong. Climate change, technological innovation, resource shortages, political and social volatility, and more frequent technical and natural disasters point to a newly emerging context for strategic planning. The U.S. Army War College calls this the “VUCA Context“ – Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous. VUCA conditions lead to a shift in how we understand and enact strategic planning. They create a crisis in how we govern and manage organisations across a range of domains. ”[Seeing the world] as a ceaselessly complex and adaptive system… involves changing the role we imagine for ourselves… from architects of a system we can control… to gardeners living in a shifting ecosystem [mostly out of our control].” (Cooper, 2009). VUCA and its consequences demonstrate that complexity and crisis themselves are the new context for governance and design. This is uncomfortable. Complexity and collapse, volatility and transition – these will be the defining themes of our decade. Adapting to these conditions requires a re-orientation of our strategic goals and a re-evaluation of the methods we use to accomplish them. This is uncomfortable. Dealing with transition can produce fear, resistance, and anxiety. As a result, many organisations are retreating from the future. Speaking about urban planning, for example, Isserman writes that we have, “lost sight of the future… creating increasingly feeble, myopic, degenerate frameworks that are more likely to react to yesterday’s events than to prepare the way from here to the future.” The effects are habitual blind spots in many modern organisations; making it difficult to discuss or even think about issues of critical change. Thankfully, there are a range of useful tools for addressing long term planning under uncertainty. These include scenario planning, futures and foresight, role playing, red teaming, collective intelligence, crowdsourcing, and experiential learning to name but a few. The challenge for 21st Century professionals is to successfully apply these tools, and the lessons they produce, in the context of stiff organisational resistance and political fear. Our job should be to facilitate events and environments that help institutions understand and prepare for rapid transformation under conditions of surprising, disruptive change. To do so, we must take actions that recognize the difficulties and contingencies of our situation, yet offer tangible solutions for moving beyond them. Such actions are inherently creative, uncertain, and emergent. In order to inspire hope, they must be focused on the positive opportunities which such changes provide. Hope is vital because, without such hope, we are doomed to transactional meaningless or, even worse, the cowardly operationalism of “I was just following orders.” Like gardeners, we must use our tools to cultivate a larger awareness of the patterns of change around us (the seasons) and use our tools to plant seeds of hope in pragmatic, effective ways. Like designers, we must use these seeds to demonstrate new ways of thinking, acting and behaving under radically changing conditions that offer tangible improvement and inspiration. Our goal is to use our creativity and insight to move beyond paralysis and towards complexity, to seek out uncertainty and change with the same vigour we have traditionally reserved for stability. Transition is the goal, design is the method, strategy is the outcome. Dr. Noah Raford is a scenario planner, strategist and policy advisor. He works as an advisor to the UAE Prime Minister’s Office, where he provides policy and strategy advice on a range of special projects. Previously he helped design, develop and manage the nation’s first foresight and scenario planning unit. Before moving to the Gulf, Noah was a strategy consultant with GBN / Monitor, co-founder of the strategy facilitation boutique Sensitive Dynamics, the former North American Director of the design studio/think-tank Space Syntax Limited and the Senior Research Advisor to Prince Charles’ Foundation for the Built Environment. He is currently a Senior Research Fellow at the London School of Economics Complexity Programme, a fellow at the Bartlett School of Architecture, an advisor to the Scenarios Lab at the USC Annenberg School of Communications, and a fellow of the International Futures Forum. Flowers that generate heat by Sharon Robinson, Professor, University of Wollongong, Australia This video introduces the fascinating world of Hot Plants, flowers that generate heat (thermogenesis) to release scents and attract pollinators. We look at three thermogenic plant species, the monocots Philodendron bipinnatifidium and Colocasia esculenta and the eudicot, Nelumbo nucifera. Some plants such as Philodendron and Sacred lotus are also able to regulate their floral temperature, maintaining their flowers at up to 30 °C above air temperatures over several days. Our research team is investigating how plants produce this heat and how they can regulate their temperature so precisely. We are also interested in why the plants produce heat. Is it to release particular scents to attract pollinators, to give a heat reward to the insects or does it also help the plants reproductive development? Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy ICT4D: Top trends for 2014by Madanmohan Rao TPP — copyright versus free speechby Annie Machon, Director, LEAP Europe. Formerly MI5 Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian Priorities for 2030by Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok, Vladimir Mesropyan A couple of billion reasons why Africa is a priority for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. The road to nowhereby Michael Akerib Demography and Hegemonyby Michael Akerib Navigating the Transitionby Chris Thomson Will Green Buildings Helpby Mike Rana, Published Author, Speaker, Software Engineer Shaping our Future Evolutionby Chris Thomson News about the Future CoderDojo CoderDojo is a non profit global movement founded by James Whelton and Bill Liao. At Dojos, young people between 5 and 17 learn how to code, develop websites, apps, programs, games and more. Dojos are set up, run by and taught at by volunteers. In addition to learning to code, members meet like minded people, show off what they’ve been working on and so on. CoderDojo makes development and learning to code a fun, sociable, kick ass experience. CoderDojo also puts a strong emphasis on open source and free software, and has a strong network of members and volunteers globally. CoderDojo has just one rule: “Above All: Be Cool“, bullying, lying, wasting people’s time and so on is uncool. Nanodiamond-embedded contact lenses may improve glaucoma treatmentBy 2020, nearly 80 million people are expected to have glaucoma, a disorder of the eye that, if left untreated, can damage the optic nerve and eventually lead to blindness. The disease often causes pressure in the eye due to a buildup of fluid and a breakdown of the tissue that is responsible for regulating fluid drainage. Doctors commonly treat glaucoma using eye drops that can help the eye drain or decrease fluid production. Unfortunately, patients frequently have a hard time sticking to the dosing schedules prescribed by their doctors, and the medication — when administered through drops — can cause side effects in the eye and other parts of the body. In what could be a significant step toward improving the management of glaucoma, researchers from the UCLA School of Dentistry have created a drug delivery system that may have less severe side effects than traditional glaucoma medication and improve patients’ ability to comply with their prescribed treatments. The scientists bound together glaucoma-fighting drugs with nanodiamonds and embedded them onto contact lenses. The drugs are released into the eye when they interact with the patient’s tears. The new technology showed great promise for sustained glaucoma treatment and, as a side benefit, the nanodiamond-drug compound even improved the contact lenses’ durability. Recommended Book Chaos, Creativity, and Cosmic Consciousness by Rupert Sheldrake (Author), Terence McKenna (Author), Ralph Abraham (Author), Jean Houston Ph.D. (Foreword) This book is a vibrant discussion between three of the most original thinkers of our time as they blend science, creativity, intellectual curiosity, and traditional wisdom to explore and expand our current views of reality. The late psychedelic visionary and shamanologist Terence McKenna, acclaimed biologist and originator of the morphogenetic fields theory Rupert Sheldrake, and the mathematician and chaos theory scientist Ralph Abraham join forces to investigate the relationships between chaos and creativity and their connection to cosmic consciousness. The authors challenge the reader to the deepest levels of thought with wide-ranging investigations of the ecology of inner and outer space, the role of chaos in the dynamics of human creation, and the resacralization of the world. Among the questions the authors raise are: Is Armageddon a self-fulfilling prophecy? Are humans the imaginers or the imagined? Are the eternal laws of nature still evolving? What is the connection between physical light and the light of consciousness? Part ceremony, part intellectual and spiritual discussion, these trialogues are an invitation to a new understanding of what Jean Houston calls “the dreamscapes of our everyday waking life.” The Letters of Utrecht A poem for the future grows in the stones of the street in the center of the town of Utrecht, The Netherlands. One character per stone, one stone per week. Every Saturday a stone mason turns the next stone into the next Letter. In months words appear. With the years verses grow in the streets, extended by a different poet of Utrechts’ guild of poets every few years. Through the centuries the line of the poem will itself draw letters on the map of the changing city. The poem continues for as long as someone is willing to contribute the next Letter as a gift to his town and its future citizens and link his or her name with a Letter by bearing the costs of its creation. Explanation of the Letters of Utrecht At the same time of the publication on the street the Letter appears on this website, with the name of the sponsor. The stone mason can engrave the name or initials of the sponsor in the side of the stone (invisible under the surface of the street). The Letters of Utrecht were unveiled on June 2, 2012. The beginning of the poem of the Letters of Utrecht was predated to fictitiously start on New Year’s day of the year 2000. The first 648 characters were actually placed on May 30th and 31st, 2012. From June 2d, 2012 onwards the next character is hewn out of the next stone every Saturday. The beginning of the Letters of Utrecht, after some rain. Futurist Portrait: Jerome C. Glenn Jerome C. Glenn is the co-founder (1996) and director of The Millennium Project (on global futures research) and co-author with Ted Gordon of the annual State of the Future of the Millennium Project for twelve years. Quotes “The world is getting richer, healthier, better educated, more peaceful, and better connected, and people are living longer; yet half the world is potentially unstable.” “We are winning more than we are losing.” “Changes in the next 25 years are going to be enormous. We are in a race between implementing greater and greater ways to improve the human condition and tackling an ever-increasing complexity and scale of problems.” “Pessimism should be stopped. It is a cowardly intellectual position.” “Maybe the most important thing is not to be looking for the most important thing.” “By 2025, 1.8 billion people could be living in waterscarce areas desperate enough for mass migrations. We have to create more water, not just pricing policies to redistribute resources. Massive desalinization will be needed as well as seawater agriculture programs along 24,000 kilometers of desert coast lines to produce biofuels, food for humans and animals, and pulp for paper industries – all of which would free up fresh water for other purposes while absorbing CO2.” “Instead of being pessimistic, we should be realistic and act together as a team. The future of management is not based on a hierarchical structure, but on connecting different lines of action through nodes.” “How can mystics and technocrats, so long at odds in their vision of the universe, find a common path to the future? …. Mystics must give up their insistence on the empirical truth of their metaphysics, and technocrats must stop denying the truth of anything that cannot be proven empirically, for both the mystical experience and technology transcend religious and cultural differences. And it is the transcendent quality of each that will allow them to merge in the ‘conscious technology’ of the future.” Bio Jerome C. Glenn is the co-founder (1996) and director of The Millennium Project (on global futures research). He was the Washington, DC representative for the United Nations University as executive director of the American Council for the UNU 1988-2007. He has over 35 years of Futures Research experience working for governments, international organizations, and private industry in Science & Technology Policy, Environmental Security, Economics, Education, Defense, Space, Futures Research Methodology, International Telecommunications, and Decision Support Systems with the Committee for the Future, Hudson Institute, Future Options Room, and the Millennium Project. He has addressed or keynoted conferences for over 300 government departments, universities, NGOs, UN organizations, and/or corporations around the world on a variety of future-oriented topics. Recent research includes: Future Elements of the Next Global Economy, Global Energy Collective Intelligence, National Future Strategy Units, Future Education and Learning Possibilities by 2030, Global Energy Scenarios for 2020, the Future of Ethics, 2025 Science and Technology Scenarios, Middle East Peace Scenarios, and Military R&D Priorities to Reduce Health and Environmental Impacts of Nantotechnolgy. Glenn was the Deputy Director of Partnership for Productivity International involved in national strategic planning, institutional design, training, and evaluation in economic development in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, the Caribbean, and Latin America and created CARINET in 1983 as the leading computer network in the developing world subsequently bought by CGNet. He has been an independent consultant for the World Bank, UNDP, UNU, UNESCO, FAO, UNEP, US/EPA, USAID, and several governments and corporations. He invented the “Futures Wheel” a futures assessment technique, Futuristic Curriculum Development, and concepts such as conscious-technology, transinstutions, tele-nations, management by understanding, definition of environmental security, feminine brain drain, just-in-time knowledge and learning, information warfare, feelysis, nodes as a management concept for interconnecting global and local views and actions, and coined the term futuring in 1973. Saturday Review named him among the most unusually gifted leaders of America for his pioneering work in Tropical Medicine (national Leprosy system while a Peace Corp Volunteer), Future-Oriented Education, and Participatory Decision Making Systems in 1974. He was instrumental in naming the first Space Shuttle the Enterprise and banning the first space weapon (FOBS) in SALT II. He has published over 100 future-oriented articles in such as the Nikkei, ADWEEK, International Tribune, LEADERS, New York Times, McGraw-Hill’s Contemporary Learning Series, Current, Royal Society of Arts (RSA) Journal, Foresight, Futures, Technological Forecasting, Futures Research Quarterly, and The Futurist. He is editor of Futures Research Methodology versions 1.0 and 2.0, author of Future Mind: Merging the Mystical and the Technological in the 21st Century (1989 & 1994), Linking the Future: Findhorn, Auroville, Arcosanti (1979), and co-author of Space Trek: The Endless Migration (1978 & 1979). Glenn has a BA in philosophy from American University, an MA in Teaching Social Science – Futuristics from Antioch Graduate School of Education (now Antioch University New England), and was a doctoral candidate in general futures research at the University of Massachusetts. He received the Donella Meadows Metal, Kondratieff Metal, Emerald Citation of Excellence, honorary professorship and doctor’s degrees from two universities in South America (Universidad Ricardo Palma and Universidad Franz Tamayo) and is a leading boomerang stunt man. Global Challenges and the Role of Metropolises Agenda Season Events 2013 / 2014February 27, 2014the future of LearningThe impact of culture on teaching and early learning.Location: THNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam (Westergasfabriek)A collaboration between THNK, the Amsterdam School of Creative Leadership and the Club of Amsterdam March 27, 2014the future ofCreativity, Arts & ConsciousnessLocation: Mediamatic, Van Gendthallen (next to Roest), VOC-kade 10, AmsterdamCo-location: The Vortex Dome, Los AngelesA collaboration between c3: Center for Conscious Creativity, Vortex Immersion Media, TPEX and the Club of Amsterdam April 24, 2014the future of Women in BusinessLocation: Geelvinck Museum, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS Amsterdam May 29, 2014the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings.Location: Geelvinck Museum, Keizersgracht 633, 1017 DS AmsterdamA collaboration between Geelvinck Museum and the Club of Amsterdam June 26, 2013the future of Transformation Special Supporters
Content Gender balance on corporate boardsMarch Event: the future of Creativity, Arts & ConsciousnessApril Event: the future of Women in Business Video games bring new life to old brainsThe Age of Inequality: Farm Crisis, Food Crisis & MediaClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to LeadEnabling human high-performance and well-beingFuturist Portrait: Lisa Bodell Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal.Join the Club of Amsterdam in March the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness, Thursday, March 27, 2014An event in Amsterdam and Los Angeles!A collaboration between c3: Center for Conscious Creativity and Vortex Immersion Media in Los Angeles and the Club of Amsterdam. Humanity has been creating culture and telling stories since the days of early humans when man applied pigments to the walls of caves and told stories around the campfire. Stories are the river that runs through time and the tools and technologies that we design become the rivulets, streams and whirlpools that give us new ways to express our experiences. The human genius has created such fantastic ways to express and share creativity — from music, dance, poetry, visual art and architecture to the book to the theater, from radio to cinema, television, and now the worldwide web and beyond…we now have the tools and the ability to express our stories and culture on a global level. At the same time we are learning more about the nature of the brain and human consciousness. We are unlocking the mysteries of spiritual traditions and discovering the power of meditation to activate greater awareness and health. We are learning how the arts and media effect us and how we can effect others with our art and stories. Where are we headed? Let’s explore possibilities…. and our April Season Event about the future of Women in Business, Thursday, April 24, 18:30 – 21:15 Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Gender balance on corporate boards Gender balance on corporate boards > Europe is cracking the glass ceiling European CommissionMarch 2014 European Commission actions to promote gender balance on the boards of listed companies in the European Union Although today 60% of new university graduates are female, women are outnumbered by men in leadership positions in the corporate sector in the EU. On average, a mere 17.8% of board members of the largest publicly listed companies in the EU are women. The issue has been the focus of intense public debate initiated by Vice-President Viviane Reding. Indeed, not taking advantage of the skills of highly qualified women constitutes a waste of talent and a loss of economic growth potential. Various studies suggest that companies with a higher representation of women at the most senior levels deliver better organisational and financial performance. How many women and men are there in leadership positions acrossthe Member States? In October 2013, the average share of women on the boards of the largest publicly listed companies registered in the EU-28 Member States reached 17.8%. This represents a rise of 1.2 percentage points in the six months since April 2013 (16.6%). There are only five countries – Finland, France, Latvia, Sweden and the Netherlands – in which women account for at least a quarter of board members. Representation of women and men on the boards of large listed companies in the EU, October 2013 Little change in the top executive positions When looking at top executive positions, the numbers are even bleaker: fewer than three in one hundred (2.8%) of the largest listed companies in Europe have a woman CEO (Chief Executive Office). Despite some progress in boardrooms, the level of female representation in the top executive position has hardly changed over the past two years. Change in the share of women CEOs, EU-28, October 2011 – October 2013 Accelerated progress driven by political and regulatory pressure With its Strategy for Equality between Women and Men, the European Commission put the issue of women on boards high on the political agenda already in 2010. In 2011 it called for credible self-regulation by companies to ensure better gender balance in companies’ supervisory boards. One year later it became clear that progress was not visible, which is why in November 2012 the Commission put forward a law – a procedural quota, which ensures that women get a fair chance in the recruitment process. From 2003 to 2010 the share of women on boards rose from 8.5% to 11.9%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points or an average of 0.5 pp/year. Since October 2010, the share has risen 5.9 pp in 3 years, an average of 2.0 pp/year, four times the previous rate of change. Representation of women and men on the boards of large listed companies in the EU, October 2003 – October 2013 Significant progress concentrated in a few Member States In the three years from October 2010 to October 2013 the share of women on boards increased in 22 of the 28 Member States. The largest percentage point increases were recorded in France (+17.4 pp), Slovenia (+11.8 pp), Italy (+10.4 pp), the Netherlands (+10.2 pp) and Germany (+8.8 pp). Most of the significant improvements took place in countries that have taken or considered legislative action or had an intensive public debate on the issue. Change in the share of women on boards, EU-28, October 2010 – October 2013 The impact of the European Commission’s proposal for legislation Noting the slow rate of change, the European Commission – with the strong support of the European Parliament and a number of Member States – decided that taking legislative action was necessary to ensure and to drive progress. On 14 November 2012, it put forward the proposal for a Directive establishing a procedural quota. The Commission proposal establishes an objective for a minimum of 40% of each sex amongst non-executive directors by 2020. If a company does not reach this threshold, it will have to apply clear and gender-neutral selection criteria in the selection process. In case of equal qualification, priority will have to be given to the candidate of the under-represented sex. The proposal enhances fairness and transparency in board selection processes by pushing companies to take a broader base of candidates from the outset. Qualification and merit remain the key criteria for a job on the board. On 20 November 2013, the European Parliament voted with a strong majority to back the proposed Directive. The legislation was adopted on its first reading, confirming the broad consensus to increase gender balance on corporate boards and general endorsement of the Commission’s approach. The Directive is currently being discussed by the Council of the EU. March Event: the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness the future of Creativity, Arts & Consciousness, Thursday, March 27, 2014 Location in Amsterdam: Mediamatic, Van Gendthallen (next to Roest), VOC-kade 10, AmsterdamThe conference language is English.A collaboration between c3: Center for Conscious Creativity and Vortex Immersion Media in Los Angeles and the Club of Amsterdam. For information about the event in Los Angeles, March 27, 9:30am – 12:15 (Los Angeles time), seeThe Vortex Dome, www.thevortexdome.com The speakers and topics are Los AngelesKate McCallum, Founder, c3: Center for Conscious Creativity, Vice President, Vortex Immersion Media, IncTransmedia, Transformation and the Future of Content AmsterdamFelix B Bopp, Chairman, Club of AmsterdamTravelling in Space and Time – a personal journey Los AngelesEd Lantz, President and CTO of Vortex Immersion Media, IncImmersive Media, Art and Consciousness AmsterdamJack Gallagher, Artistic Director, Bodies AnonymousVigorous Risk and our moderator in Amsterdam isPaul Hughes, Ten Meters of Thinking Part IIOpen discussionAmsterdam connects with Los Angeles … a dialogue between the two cities Exhibition in Amsterdam withRoni Peled, Jelena Popadic, Job Romijn, Robert Shepherd, Winston Nanlohy and Maartje van Buuren. April Event: the future of Women in Business the future of Women in Business, April 24, 2014, 18:30 – 21:15Location: Geelvinck Museum, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC AmsterdamSupported by the Amsterdam Economic Board.The conference language is English. Mylena Pierremont, Founding Partner, Ming Pai ConsultingIt is smart business to get more women in business Colby Stuart, International Creative Director, Quantum Brands BVBeyond gender differences in the world of business Cristiane de Morais Smith, Professor in Theoretical Physics, Utrecht University Caro Bamforth, Director of Corporate Communications, VliscoThe international business woman – ?? our Moderator is Annegien Blokpoel, CEO, PerspeXo Video games bring new life to old brains The generation that once invented PacMan now runs a home for the elderly, complete with video game booths. An example of Japanese video game makers moving towards an older demographic. Researchers in California are developing video games aimed at helping older people preserve their cognitive abilities as they age. The games are designed to improve communication between different parts of the brain, boosting memory function and the ability to stay focused. The Age of Inequality: Farm Crisis, Food Crisis & Media This is the video of Extra Mural Lecture conducted on 10 February 2011. Mr. Palagummi Sainat talks about inequality in India. Palagummi Sainath (born 1957) is an Indian journalist and photojournalist focusing on social problems, rural affairs, poverty and the aftermaths of globalization in India. He calls himself a ‘rural reporter’ or simply a ‘reporter’. He is the Rural Affairs Editor for The Hindu, and the website India Together has been archiving some of his work in The Hindu daily for the past six years. Amartya Sen has called him “one of the world’s great experts on famine and hunger”. Recently he also started People’s Archive of Rural India (PARI). Mr. P. Sainath, Rural Affairs Editor of The Hindu, is a recipient of the prestigious Ramon Magsaysay Award, for Journalism Literature and Creative Communications Arts. In a 30-year career as a journalist, he has won close to 40 global and national awards for his reporting. He is someone who has turned down country’s highest civilian award to a set a benchmark for journalistic ethics. Sainath’s book “Everybody Loves a Good Drought: Stories from India’s Poorest Districts” has remained a non-fiction bestseller by an Indian author for years. Sainath’s current work involves a series on the devastation of Indian agriculture by anti-farmer policies this past decade which runs in The Hindu. Consisting of detailed reports from the households of landless labourers and marginal farmers across the country, he has published over 150 investigative reports on the agrarian crisis in The Hindu alone. Inspired by Sainath’s work, Canadian documentary maker Joe Moulins has produced a documentary entitled “A Tribe of His Own: The Journalism of P. Sainath”, till date it has won 14 international awards. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy ICT4D: Top trends for 2014by Madanmohan Rao TPP — copyright versus free speechby Annie Machon, Director, LEAP Europe. Formerly MI5 Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian Priorities for 2030by Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok, Vladimir Mesropyan A couple of billion reasons why Africa is a priority for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. News about the Future Report Release: 2013 – 2014 State of the Future This is the 17th State of the Future report produced by The Millennium Project – a global participatory think tank with over 50 Nodes and about 5,000 participants around the world. The Millennium Project is listed among the top ten think tanks in the world for new idea/paradigm by the Go to Think Tank index of the Univesity of Pennsylvania and was selected by Computerworld as a laureate for its innovations in collective intelligence systems. Indian Company Licenses Berkeley Lab Invention for Arsenic-free Water“A lot of technologies to remove arsenic on the community- and household- scale have been donated. But if you go to these villages it’s like a technology graveyard,” said Gadgil, who heads the Lab’s Environmental Energy Technologies Division and is also a professor of civil and environmental engineering at UC Berkeley. “One study found that more than 90 percent failed within six months, and then were abandoned to rust in the field.” So Gadgil and his lab came up with ECAR, Electrochemical Arsenic Remediation, which binds arsenic using iron dissolved in water. Their innovation was two-fold. They created a technology that is exceptionally effective, inexpensive, and easy to maintain. And just as importantly, from the start they conceptualized a business model for implementing the technology in a way that creates incentives for its longevity. Now Indian company Luminous Water Technologies has licensed ECAR and plans to bring it to arsenic-affected villages throughout India and Bangladesh. Recommended Book Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Leadby Sheryl Sandberg Thirty years after women became 50 percent of the college graduates in the United States, men still hold the vast majority of leadership positions in government and industry. This means that women’s voices are still not heard equally in the decisions that most affect our lives. In Lean In, Sheryl Sandberg examines why women’s progress in achieving leadership roles has stalled, explains the root causes, and offers compelling, commonsense solutions that can empower women to achieve their full potential. Sandberg is the chief operating officer of Facebook and is ranked on Fortune’s list of the 50 Most Powerful Women in Business and as one of Time’s 100 Most Influential People in the World. Enabling human high-performance and well-being After more than a year of trying various new biomedical devices that promised a lot on paper but delivered little in real-life testing, MBA graduate of EPFL in Lausanne and expert in risk and technology management, Alexandros Giannakis, knew he was in front of something unique. CSEM, Switzerland’s most prestigious innovation centre had just completed the development of a new wearable technology for astronauts that addressed all the needs of the sports and medical/well-being markets. The technology, based on dry electrodes, offered groundbreaking new biometrical data of the highest quality and unparalleled levels of comfort for everyday and active life use. That was to become Sense. Inspired by the technology and defying the surging financial crisis, Alexandros decided to found a company with the aim to create the best product in the field of human monitoring, enabling high-performance and well-being. Conscious that the target was to deliver maximum value to the end user and that data alone was not enough outside of a proper medical context, he set about finding the person to make this possible. Dr. Aki Hintsa, of Formula 1 renown, was that person, having developed a philosophy that enabled many athletes reach the peak of their sport, be it Formula 1, or Olympic Games and various World Championships. That was to become Core. Since 2008 and until today, Alexandros and Aki have worked tirelessly together with a group of elite experts in order to combine Sense and Core and develop products that enable not only the monitoring of unique biometrical data but also the assessment of all areas that are related to human high-performance and well-being: health, training, biomechanics, recovery, nutrition and mental energy. Futurist Portrait: Lisa Bodell Lisa Bodell: “We’re so focused on productivity that thinking has become a daring act. Leaders have to create the space for thinking.” “It’s easy to focus on what the big guys have – established brands, tested products, years of experience. But while larger businesses have size, scale, and a whole host of other advantages at their disposal, they have two enormous disadvantages: complexity and complacency.” A globally recognized innovation leader and futurist, Lisa Bodell founded futurethink in 2003 to provide a simple approach to the otherwise complicated topic of innovation. Working with leading brands such as Starwood, Merck, and Bosch, futurethink has become the largest source of innovation research, tools, and training curricula in the world. She is the author of the provocative culture-change book, Kill the Company: End the Status Quo, Start an Innovation Revolution, which was named one of the Best Business Books of 2012 by booz&co. After earning her business degree from the University of Michigan, Lisa launched her career at Leo Burnett in Chicago, where she discovered a gift for uniting strategically driven ideas with forward-thinking themes. She went on to build two successful businesses before moving to New York and focusing solely on the innovation space with futurethink. With time-management skills that border on an art form, Lisa currently serves as an adviser on the boards of the Institute of Direct Marketing in London; the Association of Professional Futurists; the Institute for Triple Helix Innovation; and Novartis’ Diversity and Inclusion Board in Basel, Switzerland. Among her many academic activities, Lisa is a finalist judge at Idea Crossing’s Innovation Challenge held at University of Virginia, and has taught innovation and creativity at both American University and Fordham Universities. A respected thought-leader on innovation topics, Lisa has appeared on FOX News, and in publications such as Fast Company, Forbes, Crain’s, Business Week, The New York Times, WIRED, Investor’s Business Daily, Harvard Business Review, and The Futurist. In addition to Kill the Company, Lisa co-wrote Success Simplified (Insight, 2011), a collection of result-driven strategies for business and life. In her own life, she’s known for solving word scrambles, brain teasers, and logic puzzles with the speed of an Olympian. She can whip up five-course gourmet meals, though she’s yet to master a perfectly grilled burger. After traveling through more than 30 countries, Lisa has set her sights on visiting the North Pole so she can stand in every time zone – simultaneously. ‘Kill the Company’: Identify Your Weaknesses Before Your Competitors Do Agenda April 24, 2014the future of Women in BusinessLocation: Geelvinck Museum, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC AmsterdamSupported by the Amsterdam Economic Board. May 29, 2014the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings.Zero-energy buildings with low-exergy storage.Location: Geelvinck Museum, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC AmsterdamA collaboration between Geelvinck Museum and the Club of Amsterdam June 26, 2013the future of Transformation Special Supporters printable version
Content Revamping existing buildings to make them energy efficientApril Event: the future of Women in BusinessMay Event: the future of Green Architecture India e-commerceHow can design change the world?Club of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: The Greening of ArchitectureWhat keeps energy leaders awake at night?Futurist Portrait: Jørgen Randers Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Join the Club of Amsterdam in April aboutthe future of Women in Business, Thursday, April 24, 18:30 – 21:15 and in May the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings. Zero-energy buildings.May 29, 2014, 18:30 – 21:15 Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Revamping existing buildings to make them energy efficient by Koen MortelmansSource: www.youris.com Energy efficient building companies join forces with researchers to cut the energy bill of existing buildings using both passive and active designs to reach energy efficiency. Tackling energy loss from buildings is one of the key objectives to reach greater sustainability, when it comes to energy consumption. The EU-funded BRICKER project aims to develop ways of reducing energy consumption by 50% in existing buildings, within the next four years. Specifically, it will turn public buildings in Spain, Turkey and Belgium into showcases to demonstrate the level of energy savings that can be achieved. Project coordinator Juan Ramón de las Cuevas Jiménez, is a mechanical engineer and a member of the Energy Efficiency Installations group at the technological centre of Spanish building contractor company Acciona, based in Madrid. He talks to youris.com about ways of improving energy efficiency in buildings. What are the main trends in making buildings more sustainable? Trends include the reduction of energy consumption through insulation and the use of energy from renewable sources, such as solar, biomass and geothermal energy. The market is moving towards low-energy consumption buildings. This is covered in the project. What is the key aspect, which makes this project unique? It combines different active and passive technologies to achieve energy efficiency, in an innovative way. The main breakthrough will stem from the development of an innovative trigeneration system for simultaneous generation of power, heating and cooling. Its power capacity will be around 150 kW and its thermal capacity, around 600 kW. How will you implement this solution? To produce the activation heat for this system, we will use roof mounted parabolic solar collectors, working on a higher-than-usual temperature, at about 250 to 270 °C. This system is already used in industry, but not yet for public buildings. Which other measures are you planning to use? In the best practices book that the project is planning to publish, we will take into consideration the renewable resources locally available in each region. We will use biomass boilers, generating heat from biomass, geothermal district heating and absorption chillers, which use a heat source providing the energy needed to drive the cooling system. This technology already exists, but installations will be tailor-made for the project. Passive technologies include new aerating windows, with an integrated, newly patented electronic heat exchanger, new PIR (PolyIsocyanurate)-based insulation foams with embedded phase-change materials (PCM’s)— which are substances capable of storing and releasing large amounts of energy—and state of the art ventilated facades, commercial windows and insulation panels. All in all, some technologies we use are already on the market, some are innovative. It remains a challenge to integrate both in real demonstration buildings. Are retrofitted buildings a better solution than building entirely new and more efficient buildings? We made calculations to prove that a 50% reduction of energy consumption is possible with retrofitting, starting from old and non-efficient buildings. The investment levels in such measures are limited to about 20% of the price to build a new similar building. The original article can be found here. April Event: the future of Women in Business the future of Women in BusinessApril 24, 2014, 18:30 – 21:15Location: Geelvinck Museum, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam [this is not the regular museum entrance]Supported by the Amsterdam Economic Board.The conference language is English. WithMylena Pierremont, Founding Partner, Ming Pai ConsultingIt is smart business to get more women in business Colby Stuart, International Creative Director, Quantum Brands BVBeyond gender differences in the world of business Cristiane de Morais Smith, Professor in Theoretical Physics, Utrecht University Caro Bamforth, Director of Corporate Communications, VliscoThe international business woman – ?? our Moderator is Annegien Blokpoel, CEO, PerspeXo May Event: the future of Green Architecture the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings.Zero-energy buildings with low-exergy storage.Thursday, May 29, 2014, 18:30 – 21:15Location: Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam [this is not the regular museum entrance]The conference language is English.A collaboration between Geelvinck Museum Hinlopen Huis and the Club of Amsterdam. With Fenneken Anneveld-van Wesel, Independent Architecture & Planning ProfessionalWhy modern technique and sustainability are important for the preservation of historic buildings. Gijs Hoen, Project Leader, Stadsherstel Amsterdam Paul de Ruiter, Architectenbureau Paul de Ruiter bvTowards a CO2-neutral society Mathias Lehner, founding partner, lehner guntherNEXTCity – Biodiversity Design leading to more Quality of Life for all Species Our Moderator is Tarik Yousif, Presenter at the Dutch public broadcaster NTR India e-commerce How can design change the world? The Savannah College of Art and Design (SCAD) is a private, nonprofit, accredited institution conferring bachelor’s and master’s degrees at distinctive locations and online to prepare talented students for professional careers. SCAD offers degrees in more than 40 majors, as well as minors in more than 60 disciplines, in Savannah and Atlanta, Georgia; in Hong Kong; in Lacoste, France; and online through SCAD eLearning. What is SCADpad? SCADpad evolved from one powerful question: How can design change the world? As our global population continues to grow and concentrate in cities, SCAD, as a transformer in art and design education, has cultivated an entirely new vision of an urban community. SCADpad embraces and advances the university’s deeply rooted commitment to adaptive reuse by utilizing a parking structure at SCAD Atlanta to create an inspirational and sustainable community that proposes an answer to the growing urban housing challenges cities are facing around the world. An interdisciplinary group of SCAD students, faculty, and alumni worked for 10 months to design and develop SCADpad — from its architectural footprint to custom furniture to remote home control — to fit in the mere 135-square-feet of a standard parking space. Each of the three SCADpad units has a unique theme and visual identity, reflecting SCAD’s global footprint. A common green space extends the living area, creating a community environment. An organic garden is fed by a greywater filtration and delivery system, while a composting and recycling center helps ensure there is minimal waste. A rapid prototyping area featuring a 3D printer lets residents customize their unit to their preferences and needs – a perfect way to maximize life in a micro house. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy ICT4D: Top trends for 2014by Madanmohan Rao TPP — copyright versus free speechby Annie Machon, Director, LEAP Europe. Formerly MI5 Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian Priorities for 2030by Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Chulok, Vladimir Mesropyan A couple of billion reasons why Africa is a priority for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. News about the Future The Geneva Internet Platform More than 50% of global IG (Internet Governance) is conducted in Geneva. The Internet Governance Forum (IGF), the main IG umbrella body, is based in Geneva. Telecommunication issues are addressed by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). For online human rights, there is the UN Human Rights Council. The Geneva Internet Platform will add to this vibrant scene by bridging policy silos, strengthening the participation of small and developing countries, monitoring digital policies, and facilitating research for evidence-based IG Take part in UNESCO’s Comprehensive Study on Internet Topics UNESCO is seeking input from major stakeholders and experts for its study of Internet-related issues and future options within the UNESCO mandate. Responses are requested before 30 November 2014. Governments, private sector, civil society, academia, international organizations and the technical community are amongst those encouraged to respond. Recommended Book The Greening of Architecture: A Critical History and Survey of Contemporary Sustainable Architecture and Urban Designby Phillip James Tabb, A. Senem Deviren Contemporary architecture, and the culture it reflects dependent as it is on fossil fuels, has contributed to the cause and necessity of a burgeoning green process that emerged over the past half century. This text is the first to offer a comprehensive critical history and analysis of the greening of architecture through accumulative reduction of negative environmental effects caused by buildings, urban designs and settlements. Describing the progressive development of green architecture from 1960 to 2010, it illustrates how it is ever evolving and ameliorated through alterations in form, technology, materials and use and it examines different places worldwide that represent a diversity of cultural and climatic contexts. The book is divided into seven chapters: with an overview of the environmental issues and the nature of green architecture in response to them, followed by an historic perspective of the pioneering evolution of green technology and architectural integration over the past five decades, and finally, providing the intransigent and culturally pervasive current examples within a wide range of geographic territories. The greening of architecture is seen as an evolutionary process that is informed by significant world events, climate change, environmental theories, movements in architecture, technological innovations, and seminal works in architecture and planning throughout each decade over the past fifty years. This time period is bounded on one end by the awareness of environmental problems beginning in the 1960’s, the influential texts by Rachel Carson, E.F. Schumacher, Buckminster Fuller and Steward Brand, and the impact of the OPEC Oil Embargo of 1973, and on the other end the pervasiveness of the necessary greening of architecture that includes, systemic reforms in architectural and urban design, land use planning, transportation, agriculture, and energy production found in the 2000’s. The greening process moves from remediation to holistic models of architecture. Geographical landscapes give a global account of the greening process where some examples are parallel and sympathetic, and others are in clear contrast to one another with very individuated approaches. Certain events, like the Rio Summit in 1992 and Kyoto Protocol in 1997, and themes, such as the Hannover Principles in 2000, provide a dynamic ideological critique as well as a formal and technical discussion of the embodied and accumulative content of greening principles in architecture. What keeps energy leaders awake at night? World Energy Issues Monitor 2014by the World Energy CouncilIn times of unprecedented uncertainty for the energy sector, the pressure and challenge to further develop and transform the our systems to secure a sustainable energy future is immense. WEC’s Energy Leaders’ dialogue over the year 2013 has shown that with this outlook business as usual is not an option. The World Energy Issues Monitor 2014 helps to define the world energy agenda and its evolution over time. It provides a high-level perception of what constitute issues of critical uncertainty, in contrast to those that require immediate action or act as a developing signal for the future. As such, it has developed into an essential tool in understanding the complex and uncertain environment within which energy leaders must operate and a tool through which decision makers can challenge their own assumptions on the key drivers within the energy landscape. The 2014 edition is the culmination of a six-month study capturing the views of over 800 energy leaders including ministers, chief executives and the heads of the WEC’s national members committees covering 84 countries. The report, which highlights strong regional variations, looks at the global energy agenda and analyses the trends and outlook in six world regions plus 24 countries. Readers are encouraged to further explore the evolution of critical issues across years and in different regions and to download the results using the interactive issues monitor in the data section. Futurist Portrait: Jørgen Randers (born 1945) is a Norwegian academic, professor of climate strategy at the , and practitioner in the field of future studies. Jørgen Randers (born 1945) is professor of climate strategy at the BI Norwegian Business School, where he works on climate and energy issues, scenario analysis and system dynamics. He lectures widely at home and abroad on sustainable development issues – particularly climate change – for all types of corporate and non-corporate audiences. Jorgen Randers is non-executive member of several corporate boards in Norway, including the state owned Postal Service. He also sits on the sustainability council of The Dow Chemical Company in the US and (until recently) of British Telecom in the UK. He chaired the Commission on Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions who reported in 2006 to the Norwegian cabinet on how Norway can cut is climate gas emissions by two thirds by 2050. He was President of the Norwegian Business School BI 1981 – 89, and Deputy Director General of WWF International (World Wide Fund for Nature) in Switzerland 1994 – 99. He has authored a number of books and scientific papers, including co-authoring “The Limits to Growth” (1972) and its sequels in 1992 and 2004. He recently wrote “2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”. Jørgen Randers: Five recommendations for global action What could be done to avoid my sad forecast? Five recommendations stand out: 1) Slow population growthHave fewer children – especially in the rich world where each child has a high footprint. Concretely this means to reduce the tacit, pro-natalist attitudes which still dominate modern societies, both rich and poor. More fundamentally, it amounts to welcoming women who choose a career rather than more children. It amounts to agreeing that caring for a larger number of old people is not best solved through immigration, but through an increase in the pension age. It amounts to understanding that when the fraction of old increases, the fraction of young declines, so the total “support burden” of young and old divided by those aged 15-65 actually stays relatively constant throughout. The working age groups will have to care for the old – not in addition to, but instead of, caring for the young. 2) Reduce the ecological footprintEliminate greenhouse gas emissions from coal, oil and gas, first in the rich world The simplest approach would be to ban the use of coal, oil and gas in rich countries. One practical way would be to introduce a carbon tax of 100 euro per ton of CO2 emitted and a border tax adjustment to reduce carbon leakage. (This would roughly treble the price of coal-based electricity from 5 to 15 eurocents per kWh, and make it more expensive than many renewable energy sources.) But it is politically impossible to introduce a high carbon tax because voters resist the resulting jump in the energy bill in the short run. Thus reducing the footprint amounts to gaining public acceptance for a small sacrifice today in order to create a better life for our grandchildren. It amounts to making voters accept slightly higher living costs. It amounts to obtaining political support for deliberate slowing of consumption growth in order to give room for more growth in long term investment. 3) Help the poor with clean energyConstruct a modern low-carbon energy system in the poor world, paid for by the rich world. Concretely this means that the rich world would take the initiative, obtain agreement with the recipient countries, and pay for a climate-friendly energy system in the poor world. The energy system would be based on sustainable hydro, wind, solar and biomass resources, and most likely supplemented with carbon capture and storage retrofits on utilities burning fossil fuels. This energy system would both reduce climate emissions and suffering. At the more fundamental level this recommendation amounts to obtaining political support for a reorientation of existing funds for development assistance. 4) Temper short-termismEstablish supra-national institutions to help nations adopt policy that help our grandchildren. Concretely this means to delegate the authority to decide on certain matters to wise, quick and powerful entities which are beyond the day-to-day control of national parliaments and their voters. There is a good model in the central banks that exist in most civilized countries and decide on the size of the money supply without frequent democratic interference. A “Global Central Bank for Climate” authorized to decide on the maximum greenhouse gas emissions for each member nation, and providing advice (and preferably finance) to achieve the cuts, might do the trick. It could be built on the shoulders of the IPCC. At the deepest level, this proposal amounts to gaining acceptance in the population for the benefits of strong government in situations where a problem is better solved by a supernational institution than by market democracy. 5) Establish new goals for rich societyPursue increased well-being in a world without growth. Once beyond a certain threshold, increased income does not lead to increased well-being. At least when you haven’t anyone to compare with. But there is always the neighbour or friend who gets a raise and triggers your desire/need for higher income – irrespective of how rich you were in the first place. This vicious circle could be broken by banning future income raise, and concentrating social attention on increasing your well-being within the limitations of a fixed annual income. This shift from growth in income to growth in well-being will make even more sense in the future when per capita income will remain stable in spite of the rich countries continuing attempts to achieve growth. But I don’t think we will see democratic decisions to stop income growth. Slightly less improbable is a future decision to reduce the number of hours worked per year. A shorter work year could be sold as a gradual increase in the number of vacation days (replacing the gradual increase in wages). This would reduce income growth, and motivate for further focus on increased well-being – which is natural when people have more free time and less money. This amounts to convincing the majority of something that most middle and upper class people already know (but do not follow) namely that more money does not make you happier. Will the rich world follow these five recommendations? I don’t think so. At least not beyond the level assumed in the 2052 forecast. Capitalism and democracy will prevail more or less as is, and respond to global problems once they have occurred, not up front. And when responding, focus on what is cheapest in the short run. 2052-A GLOBAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FORTY YEARS Agenda Season Events 2013 / 2014 NEXT Event April 24, 2014the future of Women in BusinessLocation: Museum Geelvinck, Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam Supported by the Amsterdam Economic Board. May 29, 2014the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings. Zero-energy buildings.Location: Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam A collaboration between Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis and the Club of Amsterdam June 26, 2013the future of Transformation Special Supporters printable version
Content Scaling up inclusive innovation: asking the righ.t questions?May Event: the future of Green Architecture June Event: the future of Transformation News from the world of robots Ocean noise – the underestimated disruptive factorClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: Social Innovation: Solutions for a Sustainable FutureSocratic DesignFuturist Portrait: Jeremy Rifkin Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Join the Club of Amsterdam in May about the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings. Zero-energy buildings.Thursday, May 29, 2014, 18:30 – 21:15. and our June event about the future of Transformation, Thursday, June 26, 2014 “Transformation is everywhere. Due to changes in the economy, the climate, technology and lifestyle we are transforming our infrastructure, our houses, our companies our cities and ourselves all the time. This evening we will discuss the future of transformation. Big plans and top down is over, are we ready now for bottom up or are there other strategies to think of?” Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Scaling up inclusive innovation: asking the right questions? by Adrian Smith, Senior Lecturer, SPRU – Science and Technology Policy Research, The Sussex Energy Group There has always existed an insistent undercurrent of grassroots innovation activity in societies. Whether born of material or economic necessity, or motivated by social issues marginalised by the conventional innovation systems of states and markets, networks of grassroots innovators have worked to find development solutions that meet the aims, interests, and situations of the activists, communities and individuals involved. Lessons from the grassroots?An emerging agenda for inclusive innovation amongst national and international development agencies has drawn elite attention to grassroots innovation. Grassroots innovation activity attracts interest as both a source of potentially inclusive ideas and practices, worthy of scaling-up, and as a relevant field of experience from which programmes for inclusive innovation might learn. Research into grassroots innovation movements at the STEPS Centre and in SPRU for over a decade certainly suggests some relevant lessons. But the most important lessons are not as directly instrumental for inclusive innovation as some agencies might hope. Because whilst there is valuable experience in grassroots innovations, the main lessons from studying this field is that questions about scaling-up inclusive innovation might be misguided, or at least too narrow, and what is really required are answers to questions about opening-up and democratising innovation systems. There are three motivating questions for the OECD Symposium. This contribution addresses the second and third of them: • What are the impacts of innovation and innovation policy on industrial, social and territorial inclusiveness?• How can inclusive innovation initiatives be expanded to improve welfare and facilitate the democratisation of innovation?• What are key implications for policy? What can be done to support the successful implementation of novel approaches to policy to effectively support inclusive growth? My argument is that inclusive innovation may not automatically facilitate the democratisation of innovation. Indeed, the relationship may need to operate the other way: it is difficult to have deep and meaningful inclusion in innovation (and, by implication, fair and just exclusion) without first democratising innovation systems. Problematising question two in this way means that considerations for policies sought in question three begin to look quite different. Scaling-up processes not objects?Even if one approaches grassroots innovation with an interest in scaling-up inclusive innovation, further questions soon become apparent. Evidence from our own research does include attempts to develop promising grassroots innovations into scalable forms. Typically, this proceeds through measures to formalise and commercialise the innovation. The facilities and tools of conventional innovation systems are brought to the services of promising grassroots innovators and their innovations: through the provision of research, development and demonstration; assistance with standards procedures; and help securing intellectual property. Investment and marketing assistance is also provided. Amongst the more advanced examples of this is the National Innovation Foundation in India. So one can analyse in-depth the processes for developing and marketing goods and services arising from grassroots ingenuity. Models could be developed for inclusive innovations relevant to markets lower down the pyramid. However, this is a view that relates grassroots innovation to inclusion in terms of outputs only. The grassroots furnishes prototypes for the poor; and these are then turned into goods and services for scaling-up, principally by expanding markets. It is also a view that presumes an obvious risk-taking innovator (analogous to a firm or inventor) to support and reward, and an innovation that can be turned into a proprietary object. Of course, the inclusive innovations that result need not be marketed commercially to poorer consumers. Inclusive innovations might become products that are distributed through donor development programmes or social enterprises. However, one of the key lessons from our research into grassroots innovation movements is that the people involved can be as much concerned about the processes of innovation as they are for the outputs of innovation. Grassroots innovators and their networks want to be involved in prioritising and framing the development issue, making design choices, decisions about evaluative criteria as well as evaluating ‘success’, undertaking further development and production, how investments are made, and any returns distributed or reinvested, as well as other aspects of the innovation process. Grassroots innovators are concerned about the form, depth, and scope of inclusion in innovation; and they are creating spaces for experimenting with new forms of innovation process. All of these are concerns that challenge the market-based approach to scaling-up inclusive innovation noted above. A good example here is experience with the Cisterna programme for rainwater harvesting in Brazil. Cisterna involves the provision of household and larger-scale rainwater collection systems that can store sufficient water for families to get through the dry seasons in semi-arid North-Eastern Brazil. The programme emerged originally as a grassroots innovation. Local activists and engineers pioneered an assisted process for households and communities to build their own systems. It proved to be an innovation popular with communities in the region. Wanting to scale-up the use of rainwater harvesting, the government decided to purchase ready-made, plastic systems for more rapid installation locally. However, these standard units did not work well in all situations – buckling under the intense heat in some cases. Just as significantly, simply installing this technology provided neither the space nor processes for development workers and local community members to address issues that affect how the systems would be used. Unlike the government view on scaling-up, the grassroots initiative was about more than providing families with water. There was a desire to address local power relations that affected not only access to water (and the injustices arising from reliance on water tanked in by vendors) but expand it to other development issues too. In its original form, Cisterna attempted through the organisation of the self-build process to build up capabilities for addressing social change, thereby giving people the confidence and power to organise themselves, articulate demands, do projects, and co-ordinate their maintenance. Protests in the region subsequently reinstated a self-build track into the programme. We found a similar difference in breadths of purpose in studying community energy projects in the UK. Again, the government has noticed grassroots activity and begun developing strategies and support schemes with a view to scaling-up initiatives. Again, however, the schemes are framed quite narrowly, this time around engaging publics in sustainable energy. Our research found the protagonists initiating community energy projects had a wider set of economic, social and political aims. These included building cohesion and solidarity in the community, enhancing the skills and employability of people, asserting ownership and democratic control over local renewable resources, local jobs and economic development, and becoming less reliant on centralised fossil energy. The aims were very context specific and varied project-by-project: contextual sensitivities that the scaling-up of standard community energy models or packages risks losing. At stake here are differences in framings of grassroots innovation. A more challenging framing sees grassroots innovation as providing a space for people to experiment, and in so doing build up power to do alternative developments in ways that challenge the structural priorities of incumbent innovation systems. An additional benefit to attending to inclusion in this way is that it opens up space to confront the gender, class, ethnicity, age and other relations that can sometimes be sources of exclusion, even in grassroots initiatives, and to figure out how an innovation process might be accompanied by other changes that ensure a more equitable and inclusive outcome. It has to be remembered that the communities within and across which grassroots innovation happens exhibit (and need to address) inequality, exclusions, and hierarchies just like the wider societies in which they are situated. Innovation: exclusions, resistance and alternativesScaling-up is often seen in terms of standardising. However, even where the process of standardisation is trying to result in more inclusive outcomes, the process can also exclude other original features. Organic food, for example, was an early grassroots example where organisations like the Soil Association developed standards principally to assure authenticity and help with scaling-up. But what expanded was a set of standard and specific practices for cultivating crops and livestock. Synthetics-free ingredients scaled-up and were inserted into conventional food systems, rather than the original organic movement vision for local food economies based in mixed farms. Insufficient inclusion of the organic food vision prompted a reaction, in the reappearance of more localised organic food provision through box schemes, markets, and so forth. Practices in agro-ecology represent innovations that resist the encroachment of agricultural innovations based in high-input, capital-intense, industrialising food production and consumption. It is difficult to foresee inclusion operating smoothly across these two different worlds of innovation. Other grassroots innovations arose similarly as ways of contesting the development pathways implied by incumbent innovation systems. As we see in areas of renewable energy now, such as for the Energiewende in Germany, once innovations grow beyond their grassroots origins, and concerns for ownership, empowerment and democratic control become more assertive, then they can present challenges to incumbent groups, and unsettle prevailing power relations. Sometimes, this leads to the co-option and reinvention of the innovation into forms more palatable to incumbents and their innovation systems. We get utility-scale renewable electricity plants rather than the decentralised electricity systems as envisaged by the pioneers under ownership of local communities. What could become inclusive innovation goes awry as the grassroots gets excluded through a scaling-up based in standardisation, loss of context and insufficient attention to power relations. Debating the democratisation of innovationSo perhaps scaling-up is the wrong question? Scaling-up tends to frame the issue as one of extent and quantity, which glosses over important points of contestation around directions and qualities of innovation. We need to think more carefully about different kinds of inclusions, various sources of exclusions, plural innovation pathways, and resistance and alternatives to incumbent systems. Moreover, we need to think about inclusion dynamically. Seeing inclusion in terms of correcting an exclusion and bringing (market) access to a service through an innovation, implies quite a settled view on innovation as providing fixes: the situation is ameliorated by a more inclusive provision of goods or service; the included passively welcome the innovation. However, as we see in the case of Cisterna, the intended beneficiaries might not be so pliant, they might demand more, or the innovation experience might reveal further points of contestation and generate new issues relevant to questions of inclusion and exclusion. The argument made here accords with the symposium identification with supporting the democratisation of innovation, but it suggests such democratisation will not arise automatically through a technical policy framing of the problem in scaling-up inclusive innovations. We need to think about democratising innovation in much more political terms. How might an agenda based around the democratisation of innovation differ from an inclusive innovation agenda? First and foremost, it would attend to the power relations involved in innovation: the power to do innovation, and power over innovation agendas. The discussion above about scaling-up involves power relations between the grassroots and innovation systems through the way grassroots novelties are selected and developed. Who is in control of these processes? What principles are in play over decisions and selections? Our research finds that grassroots innovators are interested in these questions. In a few cases, they articulate it as a question of democratising innovation, or practicing innovation for social justice. The symposium wants to identify key policy principles for innovation; perhaps they should be democracy and social justice? Drawing on grassroots debates, then a democratising innovation agenda would address the opening-up of innovation systems. Practically, that means thinking of more democratic arenas for establishing research agendas, funding decisions, universities, research institutes, venture and investment capital, training and skills programmes, prototyping infrastructures, marketing, and so forth. It also means building networks and coalitions between these arenas, where the potential can be demonstrated through acts, amplified by lobbying, and win influence through alliances. These are political challenges about opening-up innovation systems, and making systems accessible to citizens. The practical challenges are considerable and uncertain. One practical possibility arising from some grassroots initiatives suggests scaling–down innovation systems, and decentralising facilities and institutions to where people live. This has been attempted with science shops and technology networks in the past, for example, and is being explored through fablabs, hackerspaces and similar community-based workshops today. There are other practical steps that could be explored also, but there is not space to develop them here. Whatever gets considered, experience suggests we need to guard against idealizing grassroots activism in design, experimentation, and development of innovations. People do not respond automatically to the provision of a material facilities and training programmes. The spaces need be in tune with the contexts in which people live: they have to be designed and cultivated carefully, through on-going community development processes. And people have to be supported in gaining confidence within these more structured spaces. Questions of inclusion, exclusion, participation, and so forth are just as pertinent in these grassroots spaces. Issues abound around expertise, knowing how and knowing what, skills, tacit knowledge, and practices that push the scope and flexibility of both high- and low-technological options. The point is that these spaces allow experimentation and learning in democracy itself and what democratising innovation can mean practically. Some concluding remarksWords are powerful. They frame thinking and action. Clearly, inclusive innovation is a term motivating a lot of work amongst policy agencies at the moment (responsible innovation and social innovation are other terms keeping agencies busy). The term inclusive innovation provides welcome recognition that the focus and fruits of innovation need to be redirected and redistributed. But it also raises questions about what is being included in innovation. In this post I have tried to argue that we need to think about alternative terms, such as starting with democratising innovation systems. What might happen if the normative (yet not too threatening) goal of scaling-up inclusive innovation was replaced by aims to open-up innovation systems to more democratic processes? Grassroots innovation experience suggests this is a valid re-framing of the issue. Arguably, such an opening-up might lead to more diverse, balanced, and distributed innovation systems and economic activity. A wider sense of ownership and empowerment over innovative activity might encourage responsible citizens, whose deliberations could, as some democratic theory argues, generate richer discourses and better decisions about innovation. We’ll only learn whether this is the case or not if we ask the right questions. This post by is based on Dr Adrian Smith’s contribution to a session on ‘scaling up’ at the OECD Symposium on Innovation and Inclusive Growth in Paris on 20-21 March 2014. The article was originally written as a blog for the STEPS Centre website. May Event: the future of Green Architecture the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings. Zero-energy buildings.Location: Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam [this is not the regular museum entrance]The conference language is English.A collaboration between Geelvinck Museum Hinlopen Huis and the Club of Amsterdam. WithFenneken Anneveld-van Wesel, Independent Architecture & Planning ProfessionalWhy modern technique and sustainability are important for the preservation of historic buildings. Gijs Hoen, Project Leader, Stadsherstel AmsterdamMonumental buildings: possibilities for a sustainable future Paul de Ruiter, Architectenbureau Paul de Ruiter bvTowards a CO2-neutral society Mathias Lehner, founding partner, lehner guntherNEXTCity – Biodiversity Design leading to more Quality of Life for all Species Our Moderator is Tarik Yousif, Presenter at the Dutch public broadcaster NTR June Event: the future of Transformation the future of TransformationThursday, June 26, 2014Location: Cabral Gebouw, Cabralstraat 1, 1057 CD Amsterdam The event is supported by the Coop MidWest and the Andragologie Alumni Amsterdam.Transformation is everywhere. Due to changes in the economy, the climate, technology and lifestyle we are transforming our infrastructure, our houses, our companies our cities and ourselves all the time. This evening we will discuss the future of transformation. Big plans and top down is over, are we ready now for bottom up or are there other strategies to think of? WithEvert Verhagen, founder and owner, Creative CitiesTransformation in cities Karin Jironet, co-founder of In ClaritasThings change all the time, but sometimes, things will never be the same again. Louise van Schaik, Senior Research Fellow & Coordinator Global Issues, Governance and Diplomacy, The Clingendael InstituteThe politics of climate change Huseyin R Demirhisar, CIO, Managing Partner, Angel Wings VenturesThe Impact Investment Now! and our moderator Annegien Blokpoel, CEO, PerspeXo News from the world of robots Ultra-fast, the robotic arm catches objects on the fly Brain-controlled robot exhibited in Beijing Ocean noise – the underestimated disruptive factor Airgun signals disturb whales across great distances Airguns can disturb marine mammals at distances as far away as 2,000 kilometres says a new study by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA)and deteriorate both the physical and psychological well-being of the animals. Maria Krautzberger, President of UBA, said: “Noise pollution in the oceans is increasing and seems on course to continue, for one because of the expected exploration for natural resources in the world’s oceans. Airguns are a key factor in this context. Their sound bursts can severely impair the communication of blue and fin whales – in the worst case, across the entire distance of an ocean.” This would also occur if airguns were used for scientific purposes only. Airguns were developed to search the bottoms of the ocean for oil and gas stores. It is absolutely vital for whales to perceive their environment acoustically because they use their ears to “see”. If acoustic signals are masked, their “field of vision” is reduced and it can harm the biological fitness (physical and mental condition) of marine mammals such as the blue whale and fin whale. Nowadays man-made underwater noise is a virtually constant reality in all oceans. Shipping traffic is a source of chronic noise which has a high “masking potential”. Masking means an overlapping of sound signals. An intended signal of communication between marine mammals is covered up, or acoustically masked, by an interfering signal. Such interfering signals come from airguns which are used to explore the ocean floor. These signals are much louder and often much shorter than typical ship noise. It has long been suspected that these loud seismic signals can damage the hearing of marine mammals since these sound bursts can be 1,000 times louder than a ship. Underwater noise can also interfere with communication between marine mammals and their perception of other sounds in their environment. Whales depend on these signals, for example to find food or a mate. The new UBA study shows that airgun signals can have an impact at distances of up to at least 2,000 kilometres (km). This can affect animals living within the Antarctic Specially Protected Areas located south of 60° south, even airguns are in use on ships located north of 60° latitude. Airgun signals can evolve into intermittent noise with high masking potential already at medium distances of 500 to 1,000 km. At distances of over 1,000 km the airgun bursts can develop into continuous noise. This results in a loss of the natural communication distance of blue and fin whales in Antarctica, reducing it to about one per cent of its original range. The results of the UBA study show that masking effects and significant impact on the vocalisations of animals are possible across great distances and must be taken into consideration in the environmental impact assessment of impulsive sound sources like airguns. The model in this project will be further developed in a follow-up project which will enable applicability to other habitats. These habitats include the Arctic, which is expected to experience a lot of use of airguns to image the ocean floor for mineral resources and for research purposes. UBA’s President Maria Krautzberger said: “We must know exactly what the effects of sound waves from airguns are on marine mammals and take this into account in the environmental assessment of marine research. We therefore need an international noise action plan, perhaps in the framework of the Antarctic Treaty System.” The German Federal Ministry for Environment put into force a noise action plan for the North Sea on 1 December 2013. It enables the sustainable development of offshore wind power in Germany. The aim is to protect the native porpoise against noise, in particular when rearing its young. Noise is caused when foundation piles for wind turbines are driven into the seabed. AirgunsThe airguns used for underground exploration are essentially metal cylinders charged with high-pressure air which is then fired in bursts similar to an explosion. The burst creates an air bubble which generates a very short but very loud sound signal. Most of the acoustic signals emitted from airguns are in the low frequency range of up to 300 Hertz, making an overlap with the sounds and vocalisations of whales and seals probable. The baleen, blue and fin whale common to the Antarctic Sea communicate by and large in this frequency range. Further informationComplete report on UBA study Assessment of potential for masking in marine mammals of the Antarctic exposed to underwater sound from airguns Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy News about the Future Proterra Sets Record for Most Miles Traveled in a Day by a Battery-Electric Transit Bus A bus built by Proterra has set a record for the most miles traveled by a battery-electric bus in a day – traveling more than 700 miles in 24 hours. Equally impressive is the fact that on this trip the bus recorded an average fuel economy of nearly 27 miles per gallon – nearly six times that of a diesel Cultured meat: every village its own factory? Rising global demand for meat will result in increased environmental pollution, energy consumption, and animal suffering. Cultured meat, produced in an animal-cell cultivation process, is a technically feasible alternative lacking these disadvantages, provided that an animal-component-free growth medium can be developed. Small-scale production looks particularly promising, not only technologically but also for societal acceptance. “We believe that cultured meat is part of the future,” said Prof. Dr. Cor van der Weele of Wageningen University in The Netherlands. “Other parts of the future are partly substituting meat with vegetarian products, keeping fewer animals in better circumstances, perhaps eating insects, etc. This discussion is certainly part of the future in that it is part of the search for a ‘protein transition.’ It is highly effective in stimulating a growing awareness and discussion of the problems of meat production and consumption. Recommended Book Social Innovation: Solutions for a Sustainable Future (CSR, Sustainability, Ethics & Governance)by Thomas Osburg (Editor), René Schmidpeter (Editor) Social Innovation is becoming an increasingly important topic in our global society. Those organizations which are able to develop business solutions to the most urgent social and ecological challenges will be the leading companies of tomorrow. Social Innovation not only creates value for society but will be a key driver for business success. Although the concept of Social Innovation is discussed globally the meaning and its impact on the development of new business strategies is still heavily on debate. This publication has the goal to give a comprehensive overview of different concepts in the very innovative field of Social Innovation, from a managerial as well as from a theoretical and social perspective. Over 30 leading thinkers in the field of Innovation, Strategic Management and Organizational Development give a well structured inside on the latest developments and progress in the field of Social Innovation. Thereby the authors not only develop a comprehensive and unique analysis on the state-of-the art of social innovation but also give practical advice and information to business leaders on how to apply the latest management thinking on Social Innovation to daily business decisions. This publication has the intention to become a milestone in the further development of the concept of Social Innovation as well as to further stimulate new business strategies necessary to overcome world most pressing social and ecological challenges. Socratic Design by Humberto SchwabPhilosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam You can only design when you now from where, towards what and for what reasons. Socratic Design is a radical way of changing our paradigms, the way we think and the way we live. We need a radical approach because the soft, step by step, way does not bring us further. We are still heading full speed towards different crises. At the same time there is a lot of innovative intelligence, why are we so powerless? The simple answer is, because we are looking in the wrong corner and in the wrong way. It is not the world we have to change; we have to transform our way of thinking, acting and feeling. We are addicted to old ideas, old thoughts and old feelings. Our mind is not a free sweeping rational engine, nor is the world around us a fixed entity of stable facts. Both are deep fallacies. So if we innovate with our old mind still intact, we will just reproduce more of the same in a different format! You can dress it up but that does not change the content. Socratic Design is a program of awareness and of an action transformation for business, organizations and individuals. It makes us aware that everything around us (all that is touched by men), is designed. The world is designed according to assumptions, a world view and paradigms. In the Socratic practice we identify these and analyze them with scrutiny. In Socratic philosophy we have the tools to execute this analysis consequently and consistently. The objects, the buildings, and the very infrastructure of our society are based on assumptions. For example, the house is built on the assumption that we want to live privately, that we want to separate sleeping and eating, that we want to protect ourselves and our possessions with doors, locks, gates etc. Each of these assumptions leans on deeper assumptions. That we lock the doors, assumes that people will probably act as thieves, this assumes that people are selfish or ego oriented. The world around us is built on this assumption, all the design that surrounds us is suffused with this approach. All governmental programs will be based on the assumption that this is the true nature of man. In Socratic practice we can de-construct even the most hidden assumptions. An example is the assumption that all that is abstract has more truth than what is concrete and personal. The more something is distanced from you, the more objective it is. What you experience is just your opinion – what really is true is the generalization, abstracted from personal experience. Even small things like pencils, or chairs or clothes are designed and thus contain the same assumptions. Cultural fallacies (false assumptions) are stored away hidden in our things that surround us. But here comes the devil: the surroundings determine our inner way of thinking, conditioning our thoughts and our feelings. If you as a child, were to walk around in a school full of cameras, security doors, bullet proof glass and permanent monitoring, you would start to think, feel and act as a criminal. If you enter a hotel where they offer free drinking from the minibar as much as you like, most of us (not all) will feel very responsible and act moderately. If I approach pupils as managers of their learning process, giving them all the responsibility, they will act accordingly. So we are not independent, rational agents (cultural fallacy): we are dependent on the environment we design ourselves. How best then, to break out of this vicious circle of reproducing new thoughts that will only perpetuate old assumptions? Even more disturbing is the fact that we think that we are thinking, but most of the time we are rehearsing the same thoughts over and over again. It would be better to use the word “thought” as the past tense of “to think” instead of the present tense, because that is what we mostly do! The endorphin brain system gives us a release of nice “feeling”, when we have these same old thoughts over and over again. Thanks to this reward we get the impression that we really are thinking while the thoughts “run us”. Socratic Design establishes a sensitive environment to engage in “deep listening” by Socratic dialog. These Socratic dialogs transform us from ego and ratio oriented atoms into a collective sensitive mind that is capable of “listening” to the deepest human values and needs. This method guarantees a higher level of thinking. It frees us from the old addictive neuron-circuits, because each individual mind is “forced” to leave that behind. This sensitive collective organ is the producer of instantaneous wisdom, capable of creating genuinely real knowledge. This knowledge is concrete, personal and built on questions about our values, our authentic needs and on our vision of a good life. It is astonishing how many great minds, CEOs, leaders and politicians decrease their thinking quality-once they’ve reached their chosen field: they just retreat in to rehearsing admittedly very clever thoughts that got them there in the first place. It is not their fault; the top has to broadcast messages that fit in the paradigm of the organization. So we absorb, like the kid in the school, the narrative of the company, and begin to live in it in a subconscious way. The exciting thing about Socratic dialog is that we have to create knowledge each time again from scratch. Knowledge is the way we create the world around us every second. There are no facts; you see what you are focused on. So if we could start really thinking with these clever minds we would really be free of old “coal and steel” thoughts and get into “grafeen design”! Real thinking is the state-of-the-art creative process. As such, we should only design things and practices when we are at our sharpest that means when we are in this super collaborative state of practical wisdom. Socratic Design uses the deepest thoughts of the participants; they bear a lot of tacit knowledge, by making this explicit to the group, we leave procedures knowledge (which often does not match reality) behind and show what we really do; the teacher telling what teaching really is about, instead of using a didactic model, the furniture maker showing how to use the tools. Tacit knowledge contains values, practices, feelings that cannot be gathered by abstract information management or so called knowledge management! Socratic Design does two things: It gets people in a listening mode out of their own circular thoughts by strong moderation AND creates knowledge which starts from universal basic questions. At the end of the day everything boils down to the question “How do we want to live?” or “What is a good life?” A product, a service or an application is always related to this question (Undoubtedly, kids would answer the question about a good life: with the Lego game). For a company to create good stuff, the leader has to be a multiplier in creative thinking, enabling communication and freeing the company from bigotry and fear of leaving the comfort zone. We rigorously analyze the assumptions and narratives of a person or organization, we bring out tacit knowledge, and we create a landscape of values. Within this moral and aesthetic landscape, we design and fashion new assumptions and best practices into a new paradigm. Thanks to Socratic dialog, we can leave old assumptions and thoughts behind. This paradigm contains designed narratives about human beings and their lives. The vision or paradigms include new forms of language (words create our factual world), good organization based on narratives, strong procedures and continuous organized intelligence through dialog. We ourselves can design our lives ourselves towards our biggest goals from deepest human values. Futurist Portrait: Jeremy Rifkin Jeremy Rifkin is the bestselling author of twenty books on the impact of scientific and technological changes on the economy, the workforce, society, and the environment. His books have been translated into more than thirty five languages and are used in hundreds of universities, corporations and government agencies around the world. Mr. Rifkin is the founder and president of The Foundation on Economic Trends in Bethesda, MD. The Foundation examines the economic, environmental, social and cultural impacts of new technologies introduced into the global economy. Jeremy Rifkin has been an advisor to the European Union for the past decade. Mr. Rifkin also served as an adviser to President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, Prime Minister Jose Socrates of Portugal, Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero of Spain, and Prime Minister Janez Janša of Slovenia, during their respective European Council Presidencies, on issues related to the economy, climate change, and energy security. He currently advises the European Commission, the European Parliament, and several EU and Asian heads of state. Mr. Rifkin is the principle architect of the European Union’s Third Industrial Revolution long-term economic sustainability plan to address the triple challenge of the global economic crisis, energy security, and climate change. The Third Industrial Revolution was formally endorsed by the European Parliament in 2007 and is now being implemented by various agencies within the European Commission as well as in the 27 member-states. Recent Books The Zero Marginal Cost Society: The Internet of Things, the Collaborative Commons, and the Eclipse of Capitalism. The Third Industrial Revolution: How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World The Empathic Civilization: The Race to Global Consciousness in a World in Crisis The European Dream: How Europe’s Vision of the Future Is Quietly Eclipsing the American Dream Quotes “Our way of life is likely to be more fundamentally transformed in the next few decades than in the previous 1,000 years. Food and fiber will likely be grown indoors in giant bacteria baths, partially eliminating the farmer and the soil for the first time in history. Animal and human cloning could be commonplace, with “replication” increasingly replacing “reproduction.” Millions of people could obtain a detailed genetic readout of themselves, allowing them to gaze into their own biological future and predict and plan their lives in ways never before possible. Parents may choose to have their children conceived in test-tubes and gestated in artificial wombs outside the human body. Genetic changes could be made in human fetuses to correct deadly diseases and disorders and enhance mood, behavior, intelligence and physical traits.” “We need to move beyond the delusion of retraining for a dwindling number of mass wage labor jobs, and begin to ponder the unthinkable – to prepare ourselves and our institutions for a world that is phasing out mass employment in the production and marketing of goods and services. Redefining the role of the individual in a near workerless society is likely to be the most pressing issue in the decades to come.” “Europe has become a giant laboratory for rethinking humanity’s future. In many respects, the European Dream is the mirror opposite of the American Dream. While the American Dream emphasizes economic growth and individual opportunity, the European Dream focuses more on sustainable development, and the quality of life. We Americans emphasize the work ethic. Europeans place more of a premium on balancing work and leisure. America has always seen itself as a great melting pot. Europeans, instead, prefer to preserve their rich multicultural diversity. We believe in maintaining a strong military presence in the world. Europeans, by contrast, emphasize economic cooperation and consensus over traditional geo-political approaches to foreign policy.” Jeremy Rifkin “The Zero Marginal Cost Society” Jeremy Rifkin on the Fall of Capitalism and the Internet of Things Agenda Season Events 2013 / 2014 NEXT Event May 29, 2014the future of Green ArchitectureRetrofitting existing houses and historic buildings. Zero-energy buildings.Location: Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam A collaboration between Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis and the Club of Amsterdam June 26, 2014the future of TransformationLocation: Cabral Gebouw, Cabralstraat 1, 1057 CD Amsterdam (Near Mercatorplein)The event is supported by the Coop MidWest and the Andragologie Alumni Amsterdam. Special Supporters printable version
Content Daring for Big ImpactJune Event: the future of TransformationThe Future Show with Gerd LeonhardGlobal Entrepreneurship Summit GES 2014Club of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: Big Bang DisruptionHow to Survive and Thrive in the Age of DisruptionFuturist Portrait: Danielle NierenbergAgenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the ClubofAmsterdam Journal. Join the Club of Amsterdam in June event about the future of Transformation, Thursday, June 26, 2014 “Transformation is everywhere. Due to changes in the economy, the climate, technology and lifestyle we are transforming our infrastructure, our houses, our companies our cities and ourselves all the time. This evening we will discuss the future of transformation. Big plans and top down is over, are we ready now for bottom up or are there other strategies to think of?” Club of Amsterdam is a Knowledge Partner of the Global Entrepreneurship Summit GES 2014 Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Daring for Big Impact by Maximilian Martin, Founder and Global Managing Director, Impact Economy SA Impressions from the 4th Impact Economy Symposium & RetreatThe 4th Impact Economy Symposium & Retreat that was held from June 13-15, 2014 on the shores of Lake Constance in Switzerland. The event annually convenes key influencers, thought leaders, and practitioners from the worlds of investment, business, government, and philanthropy in order to surface the most effective solutions, innovations, and opportunities that have surfaced in the promotion of impact. Global leaders of impact capitalism gathered last weekend to unpack the theme of Daring for Big Impact: Blending Inspiration, Innovation and Investment. Impact Economy-the global impact investing and strategy firm-tasked the group to work through five main topics that each have the potential to drive much wider, mutually enabling impact: using the power of storytelling and media to move global warming up on the agenda of the world; mainstreaming impact investing through market-building at the level of the G7 and concrete investments; using Corporate Impact Venturing to enable companies to innovate and upgrade corporate venture capital by investing for impact; redesigning global value chains to achieve a sustainable future, with a special focus on the future of the fashion industry; and exploring the country frontiers with exceptional potential, namely the EMICs (Ethiopia, Myanmar, Iran and Colombia), which Impact Economy Founder and Global Managing Director Dr. Maximilian Martin, who also moderated the event, has identified as a set of catalytic countries. The three-day journey was rounded out by the participation of two spiritual leaders, Han Shan and Swami Nitya, who reminded delegates that people are the true center of positive change, and that improving the state of the world through private initiative, business and investments remains an unlikely proposition if we are not ready to also work on ourselves to unleash our full human potential and give our very best. An exclusive viewing session was conducted on Impact Economy investee Years of Living Dangerously, a nine-episode television series on climate change that was produced by David Gelber, James Cameron, Arnold Schwarzenegger and stars Hollywood A-listers such as Jessica Alba, Harrison Ford, and Matt Damon. This documentary series brings to life the stakes in a country like Bangladesh, where a one meter sea level rise would flood 17 percent of the country, and what US president Barack Obama, who was interviewed for the series by New York Times columnist Tom Friedman intends to do about it, triggering an engaged discussion with executive and co-producers. Throughout, a rich, fast-paced program showcased the possibilities in terms of impact, and challenged participants to aim higher with their own pursuits. Some sessions were eye-opening. Dr. John Cheh, Vice Chairman and CEO at Esquel Group in China, demonstrated how an integrated textile and garment supply chain can achieve remarkable competitiveness as well as social and environmental performance. This presentation provided an aspirational example for Impact Economy’s work and ambition-setting for the industry as covered in the report Sustainable Apparel Value Chains, which shows that boosting total resource productivity, working conditions, and future-proofing profits need not be at odds with each other. In a world where impact investors sometimes focus on the single deal at the expense of a wider country perspective, the new set of countries presented by Impact Economy, namely the EMICs (Ethiopia, Myanmar, Iran, and Colombia) triggered great delegate interest: as high-stakes, high-opportunity countries, they allow impact investors to make a key difference in contributing to achieve inclusive growth. Speakers Ebrahim Afsah, Associate Professor of Public International Law at the Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen; His Excellency Dr. Giulio Haas, Swiss Ambassador to the Islamic Republic of Iran; Khin Lay, Former Leader of Central Youth Wing of National League for Democracy in Myanmar; Frank W. Michel and Meseret Moges, Co-Founders, FriendsUnited Foundation, Ethiopia; and Philippe G. Nell, Minister and Head of the Americas Unit at the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs generously shared their deep insights into what smart investors should consider when aiming to invest for impact in the EMICs. As a pioneer in impact investing, Impact Economy shared additional pointers on how impact can be made investible. This presentation was followed by a fruitful discussion between representatives from the UK Cabinet Office, UBS and Novartis concerning what business and government are looking for, and can contribute, to further market building. The way in which the changing tectonics of value creation at the base of the pyramid, the rise of virtuous consumers, green growth and the circular economy are creating multitrillion-dollar markets and fueling a paradigm shift in the corporate world was another central topic, examined through the lens of Corporate Impact Venturing; a strategy that marries the worlds of corporate venture capital and impact. After three insight-packed days at a 450-year old Swiss castle, complemented by power networking and time for reflection, the delegates adjourned on Sunday-enthusiastic to bring fresh ideas and connections to bear in their pursuits starting on Monday morning, thus blending inspiration, innovation and investment. Impact Economy is an impact investment and strategy firm based in Lausanne, Switzerland, with overseas operations in North and South America out of New York and Buenos Aires. Working with professional investors and companies, the firm’s mission is Making Impact Investible. June Event: the future of Transformation the future of TransformationThursday, June 26, 2014Location: Cabral Gebouw, Cabralstraat 1, 1057 CD Amsterdam (Near Mercatorplein)The event is supported by the Coop MidWest and the Andragologie Alumni Amsterdam. Transformation is everywhere. Due to changes in the economy, the climate, technology and lifestyle we are transforming our infrastructure, our houses, our companies our cities and ourselves all the time. This evening we will discuss the future of transformation. Big plans and top down is over, are we ready now for bottom up or are there other strategies to think of? WithEvert Verhagen, founder and owner, Creative CitiesTransformation in cities Karin Jironet, co-founder of In ClaritasThings change all the time, but sometimes, things will never be the same again. Louise van Schaik, Senior Research Fellow & Coordinator Global Issues, Governance and Diplomacy, The Clingendael InstituteThe politics of climate change Huseyin R Demirhisar, CIO, Managing Partner, Angel Wings VenturesThe Impact Investment Now! and our moderator Annegien Blokpoel, CEO, PerspeXo The Future Show with Gerd Leonhard Overview and introduction Technology and the world that we are living in is changing exponentially and most of the time its hard to keep up especially for those who arent experts, geeks or early adopters. Its for this reason that Futurist Gerd Leonhard created this new web-TV show which aims to present and explain the most pressing issues and exciting future trends to the general public whether theyre savvy consumers, worried parents or curious professionals and business influencers. Every TFS episode is hosted by Gerd and will deliver easily digestible insights in a critical, yet engaging and exciting way. TFSs goal is to show how technologys exponential advancements will radically alter and re-design the way in which we experience the world and interact with each other in the immediate and longer term future. TFS episodes are between 4-7 minutes in length and cover topics that are timely and relevant, impactful and of strong interest to the general public as well as to the global business community. Themes include: Privacy Failure, Human-Machine Futures, The Future of Jobs, Digital Obesity, Sustainable Capitalism, Big Data and many more. Episode 1: Privacy Failure Is privacy really dead? Would a world without anonymity really be desirable? Should we simply accept that our communications, opinions, images, movements and actions are 99% public by default? Will wearable computing devices such as Google Glass, medical self-monitoring devices and smart watches and the rise of the Internet of Things (IoT) make it even harder to adhere to some kind of privacy standard? Will we really live in world where everything that happens must be known (read Dave Eggers book The Circle)? TFS host and creator Gerd Leonhard believes that in a world where almost everything is watched, recorded and analysed, and where information spreads like wildfire, we urgently need to strike a personal balance between openness and transparency and a collective standard of privacy, and frequently review our data-sharing paradigms to avoid entering into truly Faustian bargains. Allowing for mistakes and imperfections is what makes us human, but how would still uphold this concept if we are being monitored and quantified all the time? Episode 2: Knowledge and Learning The perceived value of data, basic information and fact-based human knowledge is becoming increasingly commoditised by the efficiency and sheer horse-power of digital technologies. Any Internet user can now look up, find out and tap into almost any information, anywhere, anytime and very soon, artificial intelligence and so-called cognitive computing will become as normal as sending an SMS. The traditional education paradigm of just-in-case learning is being challenged by the just-in-time learning approach that the Internet seems to afford. As a result, human ingenuity and intuition (knowing without knowing), creativity, social or emotional intelligence and a new kind of wisdom will matter increasingly. Are we moving on from the industrial/information age and its left-brain emphasis to a kind of right-brain renaissance, and will we see a new triumph of creativity, storytelling and imagination? Or will machines and software eat our world and turn us into useless wetware? What skills do we need to teach ourselves or our children so that they can he happy and prosper 5-10 years from now? How will they be successful in those jobs that havent even been invented yet? What will happen to educational institutions, schools, colleges and universities, and will degrees and certificates still be as valuable as they are today? If learning is a lifelong flow and in-demand instead of just-in-case, how will our educational systems evolve? Episode 3: Work and Jobs In the future, most repetitive or machine-like tasks and jobs will be largely offloaded to ultra-smart software and intelligent machines, wether in the manufacturing, financial services, government, transportation or technology sectors. By 2025, up to 45% of jobs might be automated-away in many sectors making a redefinition of work and jobs an urgent priority for governments, industry and educators alike. Gerd believes that the trend away from the jobs-that-robots-can-and-will-do will also free us up to re-focus on those tasks that only us humans can do. Skills or character traits such as creativity, pattern recognition, imagination and storytelling will once again become increasingly important as machines are not yet suited to tackle them, at least in the foreseeable future. As an example, whereas travel agents used to spent the majority of their time searching databases for hotels and flights in the past, they are now focusing on putting highly-tailored travel packages together and offering personalised advice the basic database of flights and hotels is available to everyone, now. This trend towards the right brain will of course pose significant challenges to those who were used to doing pure human computing tasks such as statistics and data analysis, or that were employed in mostly repetitive manufacturing environments. In the future, we are very likely to see what Gerd calls workupation and quite possibly a lot more debate on the concept of the guaranteed minimum income in response to rampant technological unemployment Global Entrepreneurship Summit Club of Amsterdam is a Knowledge Partner of theGlobal Entrepreneurship Summit GES 2014October 10-11, 2014, Bangalore, Indiahttp://www.ges2014.com Global Entrepreneurship Summit is a global platform to share experience, learning & innovations in entrepreneurship & exploring the global opportunities. GES is the World’s largest entrepreneurship summit specially focused on global business scenario, emerging startups, women entrepreneurship, youth entrepreneurship, global brand creation, innovations in entrepreneurship & many more interactive sessions by renowned top leading industrialists, global business leaders, policy makers, entrepreneurs, investors, innovators, chairman, CEO & MD of reputed organizations across the globe will gather and share their experiences. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy News about the Future. Future of Government Smart ToolboxThe Future of Government Smart Toolbox demonstrates how technology can enhance government performance by strengthening efforts to reduce corruption and bureaucracy and enhance political representation, service delivery, trust, leadership, security and innovation. The report highlights successful state practices from around the globe in the digital era. Report by the World Economic Forum. Manipulating and Detecting Ultrahigh Frequency Sound Waves Berkeley Lab researchers have demonstrated a technique for detecting and controlling ultrahigh frequency sound waves at the nanometer scale. This represents an advance towards next generation ultrasonic imaging with potentially 1,000 times higher resolution than todays medical ultrasounds. – Recommended Book Big Bang Disruption: Strategy in the Age of Devastating Innovationby Larry Downes and Paul Nunes Consumer electronics and computer makers have long struggled in a world of exponential technology improvements and short product life spans. But until recently, hotels, taxi services, doctors, and energy companies had little to fear from the information revolution. Those days are gone forever. Software-based products are replacing physical goods. And every service provider must compete with cloud-based tools that offer customers a better way to interact. Today, start-ups with minimal experience and no capital can unravel your strategy before you even begin to grasp whats happening. Never mind the innovators dilemmathis is the innovators disaster. And its happening in nearly every industry. Worse, Big Bang Disruptors may not even see you as competition. They dont share your approach to customer service, and theyre not sizing up your product line to offer better prices. You may simply be collateral damage in their efforts to win completely different markets. The good news is that any business can master the strategy of the start-ups. Larry Downes and Paul Nunes analyze the origins, economics, and anatomy of Big Bang Disruption. They identify four key stages of the new innovation life cycle, helping you spot potential disruptors in time. And they offer twelve rules for defending your markets, launching disruptors of your own, and getting out while theres still time. Based on extensive research by the Accenture Institute for High Performance and in-depth interviews with entrepreneurs, investors, and executives from more than thirty industries, Big Bang Disruption will arm you with strategies and insights to thrive in this brave new world. How to Survive and Thrive in the Age of Disruption Top 12 Insights from Communicasia 2014 By Madanmohan Rao The annual Communicasia conference and expo in Singapore always turns out to be a good time to take stock of local and global telecom changes, network with industry, discover new startups, check out the latest gadgets and gizmos, and party late into the night! Parallel tracks cover mobile, broadcast media and enterprise IT. One key theme which seems to run across many tracks this year is disruption: identifying, understanding, surviving and leading exponential upheavals. Here are my Top 12 takeaways from the speakers discussions and insights on dealing with digital disruption. 1. Understand the scale and speed of disruption In digital media space, the market value of the Top 15 Internet and OTT (over the top) players is larger than that of the Top 100 publicly-traded telcos. And most of these Internet and OTT companies did not even exist 10 years ago, such as Facebook, Tencent, Baidu, Naspers, Salesforce.com, Twitter and LinkedIn. In just a decade, these new entrants have been able to create as much market value as incumbents did over a century. It is not just this kind of scale that was unthinkable, but even the qualitative aspects of digital life that seemed like science fiction just a couple of decades ago such as Internet of Things and smart cities. 2. Denial is not the answerTrying to block new disruptors is not the answer: learn how to work with them. Many telcos tried to block services like Skype and WhatsApp, but that is not the solution. Just because voice and SMS revenues are declining does not mean denial of OTT or submission to them is the only option. More progressive solutions would be AT&Ts deal with Pandora for mobile music streaming, Verizon with Skype, 3 Hong Kong with WhatsApp and KDDI with Line in Japan. 3. Startup alliances are a road to innovation and scaleStartups need partners like telcos for scale, and telcos need startups and grassroots developers for their innovation energy. For example, startup Evernote tied up with NTT DoCoMo for funding and market scale in Japan; it tied up with StarHub to expand in the Singapore market. It has a fulltime team of 15 people to manage alliances with telcos around the world. SingTel bought three startups in an acqui-hire arrangement, including HungryGoWhere (restaurant booking app). In other domains, governments are sharing their information assets with industry via Open Data models to help spur local Big Data ecosystems. 4. Use crowdfunding to validate new ideasPlace a mix of a few large bets and many small bets to see which would succeed in or disrupt the market. Test new ideas through crowdfunding to validate them as well as raise funds. Singapore telco Starhub runs a crowdfunding initiative called Crowdtivate for emerging startups, with mentorship and regional outreach programs. Angel investors themselves are turning to crowdfunding sites to identify new bets and learn from the market. 5. Tap social media across the entire purchase cycle Social media along with mobile are giving consumers even more power than before, disrupting the older power equation of brands. It is not just in pre-purchase research or post sales stages that consumers are sharing their brand experiences but at every single touch point including receiving the first bill, filing complaints and resolving technical issues. Brands should understand the consumer conversation at each of these stages. 6. Listen to customers and co-innovate with themOTT players and startups are mastering the art of innovating along with customer needs, in lean and agile models. Feedback is continually solicited from customers at every stage, giving them a powerful disruptive edge. In contrast, telcos make it very hard for consumers to talk to their representatives and show little interest in learning from them even though, ironically, consumers want to help telcos provide better services. A few operators do try to learn from consumer complaints, such as O2, which is even using British humour in some of its customer response tweets. China Telecom is tapping its consumers for ideas and getting hundreds of them. 7. Dont underestimate ecosystem challengesTen years ago, some industry players claimed that NFC (near field communication) would disrupt the payment world. They are still saying that. The ecosystem challenges in the digital acceptance network have been complex readers, handsets, consumer friendly security procedures, and so on. Digital wallets are still in transition phase, but will eventually take off, eg. MasterPass, Google Wallet. There will finally be ease of offline/online payment and delivery in omnichannel e-commerce across any device, including ones such as Google Glass. 8. Rethink old mediaThe broadcast era of spectrum allocation is not set in stone. There are new frequencies available for satellite Internet, such as TV Whitespace. They can open up new frontiers in bridging the digital divide in rural areas, and change the previous equations of access and distribution. Disruption is coming here too who would ever have thought that Google and Facebook would one day get into the Internet access business via atmospheric balloons and drones? 9. Develop an Asia strategyAsia is on the move. The rise of Japan and South Korea disrupted the world order in the second half of the previous century, followed by the rise of China and India. They are not just large markets but launchpads of new global tech and media players, and are re-drawing hardware, software and services maps. Now other Asian countries are on the move: Indonesia and Vietnam, followed by Myanmar. IBMs 2014 Telecom Consumer Survey across 35 countries showed that Asian consumers expect to spend more on mobile services in the next few years, whereas much of Europe is in an economic downturn and its consumers want to cut down mobile expenses. What is your Asia strategy? 10. Progressive governments can make a differenceSmart city initiatives with Internet of Things and connected devices are being launched in cities around the world, from Amsterdam to Barcelona and the city-state of Singapore is also aiming to become a smart nation by 2025. Its Smart Nation Platform (SNP) will allow government agencies and industry to connect, collaborate and comprehend the new kinds of services that can be incubated and scaled up for mass markets in healthcare, transportation, recreation and the like. Emerging markets which dont have a Silicon Valley-like ecosystem will need government support for incubators, eg. Indonesia. 11. Prediction is hard but you must tryTech dominance in one era is no guarantee of understanding and succeeding in the next. Almost 20 years ago, Bill Gates wrote a book called The Road Ahead, talking about the emerging opportunities for Microsoft which dominated the PC era. Today it seems to have missed leadership positions in the mobile and cloud era. Google led the world in Web-based search, but new players are outflanking it in performance-based search, including psychographic models. 12. Dont forget analogueMuch as we are infatuated and habituated with digital media, there is still a large segment of society which is in a predominantly analogue world. Creative approaches like notice boards carrying information from cybercafés will continue to bring alerts and resources to rural communities but ultimately they too will be disrupted by digital. In sum, dealing with disruption requires a range of strategies to engage emerging disruptors and existing consumers. Culture change is tough, and a company or country may miss one wave of paradigm shift but can regroup to catch the next wave if it is nimble and savvy enough (see my review of the excellent book Big Bang Disruption by Larry Downes and Paul Nunes and my interview with the authors). At a larger societal level, fundamental notions of data privacy, ownership and usage are being disrupted, and will require new kinds of interpretation and enforcement. Welcome to the Brave New Digital World! Madanmohan Rao is research director at YourStory Media and editor of five book series (http://amzn.to/NpHAoE). His interests include creativity, innovation, knowledge management, and digital media. Madan is also a DJ and writer on world music and jazz. He is in the Board of Advisors of the Club of Amsterdam. He can be followed on Twitter at @MadanRao. The original article can be found here. Futurist Portrait: Danielle Nierenberg Danielle Nierenberg is President of Food Tank: The Food Think Tank and an expert on sustainable agriculture and food issues. She recently spent two years traveling to more than 35 countries across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America meeting with farmers and farmers groups, scientists and researchers, policymakers and government leaders, students and academics, and journalists collecting their thoughts on whats working to help alleviate hunger and poverty, while also protecting the environment. She has spoken at major conferences and events all over the world and her knowledge of global agriculture issues has been cited widely in more than 3,000 major publications including The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the International Herald Tribune, The Washington Post, BBC, the Guardian (UK), and other major publications. Danielle served as the Director of the Food and Agriculture program at the Worldwatch Institute. She also worked for two years as a Peace Corps volunteer in the Dominican Republic. Danielle Nierenberg: “Our food system is broken. Some people dont have enough food, while others are eating too much. Theres only one way to fix this problemand it starts with you and me. Food Tank is for the 7 billion people who have to eat every day. We will offer solutions and environmentally sustainable ways of alleviating hunger, obesity, and poverty by creating a network of connections and information for all of us to consume and share. Food Tank is for farmers and producers, policy makers and government leaders, researchers and scientists, academics and journalists, and the funding and donor communities to collaborate on providing sustainable solutions for our most pressing environmental and social problems. As much as we need new thinking on global food system issues, we also need new doing. Around the world, people and organizations have developed innovative, on-the-ground solutions to the most pressing issues in food and agriculture. Through years of field visits (and years of trying to eat better in her own community) our President Danielle Nierenberg has helped to highlight and promote these best practices. Today, we hope to bridge the domestic and global food issues by highlighting how hunger, obesity, climate change, unemployment, and other problems can be solved by more research and investment in sustainable agriculture. Food Tank will highlight hope and success in agriculture. We will feature innovative ideas that are already working on the ground, in cities, in kitchens, in fields and in laboratories. These innovations need more attention, more research, and ultimately more funding to be replicated and scaled-up. And that is where we need you. We all need to work together to find solutions that nourish ourselves and protect the planet.” “We need a food system where science is our servant–NOT our master!” Agenda Season Events 2013 / 2014 June 26, 2014the future of TransformationLocation: Cabral Gebouw, Cabralstraat 1, 1057 CD Amsterdam (Near Mercatorplein)The event is supported by the Coop MidWest and the Andragologie Alumni Amsterdam. Knowledge PartnerClub of Amsterdam is a Knowledge Partner of theGlobal Entrepreneurship Summit GES 2014October 10-11, 2014, Bangalore, India Special Supporters printable version
Content Colombia’s Path to ProsperityThe Future Now Show October Event: the future of Historic Pianos Transformation, Liminality and ChangeClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: Flash Foresight: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossible Climate change adaptation can help promote sub-Saharan African livelihoodsNeuromorphic ‘atomic-switch’ networks function like synapses in the brainFuturist Portrait: Riel Miller Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Club of Amsterdam launches The Future Now Show starting in September! and join our special event in Amsterdam – Monday, 13 October about the future of Historic Pianos Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Colombia’s Path to Prosperity by Philippe G. Nell, Minister, Head of Americas Unit, State Secretary for Economic Affairs, Bern, Switzerland1 President Manuel Santos has been reelected on June 15, 2014 for a second four-year term as President of Colombia. During his first presidency, he has provided new orientations to his country which is now at several crossroads. On the political side, the government negotiates with the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) a peace agreement. Peace is long due and would unleash significant investments in departments strongly affected by the conflict and open new perspectives for their population. The negotiations face however great challenges and the most difficult issues remain to be settled. On the economic side, fundamentals have been strong for years and Colombia has started its accession process to the OECD with the progressive adaptation of rules in several areas. In order to close significant gaps with OECD members, major efforts will be necessary to improve competitiveness, to diversify the economy and to reduce informality, poverty, inequality and corruption. The objective of this article is twofold: first, show why Colombia is on the path to prosperity; and second, highlight some of the most important challenges to achieve the status of a developed country. 1. Colombia at a GlanceColombia has very interesting characteristics. The population of 47 million is young, eager to learn, to work and to improve living standards. Significant natural resources play a key role in the economy. Its location is unique in South America with ports on two oceans. Second in the world for biodiversity, Colombia offers a great potential in terms of commercial applications of natural products. The size of the country is impressive, twice Texas and three times California. Huge parts are yet to be developed. For 2014, economic growth should reach 5%. Colombia has become Latin America’s third largest economy and has overtaken Argentina which is undergoing a very deep crisis. According to the Finance Minister, Mauricio Cárdenas, an ambitious road-building program using private investment will add an extra point to growth in the next four years. Moreover, a peace agreement with the FARC, ending an insurgency of half a century, would contribute an additional point. 2. Economic PolicyColombia has pursued a rigorous monetary and fiscal policy for years and never had to reschedule any foreign public debt. Even during the world recession of 2009, growth was positive (1.7%). Since 2000, except for 2002-2004 and 2007-2008, inflation has remained modest. For the coming years, the perspectives are encouraging for growth, inflation and public debt. Colombia implements a 2011 structural fiscal law and a medium-term fiscal plan with a framework for deficit and debt reduction to 2025. Ambitious fiscal targets and primary fiscal surpluses of 2% and above as of 2016 should be achieved; this will require a new tax reform to increase revenue and reduce evasion. Growth in expenditure will be driven by transfers to victims of the armed conflict and subsidies to address social needs, as well as higher spending on energy, road and housing infrastructure. The debt/GDP ratio of 41.7% (2013) should decrease to 37.5% by 2018. Colombia has a sustainable foreign debt burden and should maintain a current account deficit of 3.3% of GDP during the 2014-2018 period to be financed with substantial foreign direct investment inflows focused primarily on energy, infrastructure and communications. Foreign investment has strongly increased, moving from a yearly average of USD 2.5 bn (1994-2002) to USD 6.9 bn (2003-2010) to reach a new record in 2013 with close to USD 17 bn, that is more than 3% of GDP. These inflows complement domestic savings, contribute to higher productivity and production and strengthen the international reserves position. The steady increase of the investment/GDP ratio from 14.5% in 2000 to 28.4% in 2012 has been the basis for economic growth. 3. Rating Agencies: Investment GradeColombia’s sound position has been recognized by credit-rating agencies. In 2012, Standard & Poor’s, Fitch Ratings and Moody’s lifted Colombia’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade, coinciding with excellent economic and financial conditions. This reflected a reduction in vulnerability to external shocks, the historic fulfillment of debt obligations, confidence in the country’s macroeconomic policy and a tangible improvement in security. 4. Foreign Economic PolicyColombia is a member of the Andean Community and of several other Latin American integration schemes. In 2011, President Alan Garcia of Peru initiated in Lima the Pacific Alliance with Chile, Colombia and Mexico. The objectives are twofold: first, deepen integration with the creation of a single market including the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. Second, define common actions to promote trade links with the Asia Pacific Region. Over the years, Colombia has also set up a wide network of bilateral investment2 and double taxation agreements3. Preferential trade relations were established with the European Union, Switzerland and its EFTA partners, Israel, Korea, the United States, Canada and most Latin American countries; negotiations are presently under way with Japan and Turkey. China has become the second source of imports after the United States and represents a formidable competitor for some local industries; between 2000 and 2013, its share in Colombia’s imports has grown from 3% to 17.4%. International trade openness4 has increased from 24.9% in 2000 to 31.4% in 2012 but remains much smaller than its partners of the Pacific Alliance5; Colombia protects sectors such as dairy, meat and automobiles. Trade must be further enhanced and the potential of free trade agreements (FTAs) fully exploited. To this effect, the government has recently established a center to promote the effective use of FTAs. In order to increase agro-based exports, major work is necessary to address the sanitary and phyto-sanitary requirements of developed countries. After Mexico (1994) and Chile (2010), Colombia aims to become the third Latin American country joining the OECD. This illustrates the willingness to undertake a wide range of domestic reforms to adopt OECD codes – liberalisation of capital movements and current invisible operations, corporate conduct, corporate governance, … – and guidelines thereby increasing the international competitiveness of the country. 5. Economic Issues: Export Dependence on CommoditiesSince 2004, exports have grown substantially mainly due to a strong increase of commodity prices. Export concentration has also strengthened over the years. In 1991, 15 products made up 62.2% of exports; in 2012, only five products accounted for 68.1%. In 2001, commodities and commodities-based products made up 74% of exports, and in 2012, 87%. The share of manufactured products in GDP is low and has been declining from 14.4% in 1996 to 11.3% in 2013. Why did manufacturing not keep up with the economy which grew at about 4% per year? a) The exchange rate of the peso adjusted by inflation differential with Colombia’s major trading partners has appreciated by 41.7% during the past 10 years. As a consequence, manufacturing has been facing growing difficulties to compete on foreign markets and internally against imports.b) Venezuela has fallen from second export market (16% share, 2008) to seventh (3.8%, 2013). Major disruptions in trade flows have affected Colombia’s manufacturing sector.c) Some sectors are excessively protected. A shrinking manufacturing sector in GDP terms cannot boost job creation; nor does mining (8.5% of GDP), agriculture and fishing (6.9%), or electricity, water, gas (3.6%). This implies that the majority of the work force (60 to 70%) operates in the informal sector, is mainly self-employed, active i.a. in services (69.5% of GDP), and lives in very modest conditions. 6. Business Environment: Improved PerformanceStarting in 2005 and with greater emphasis from 2007 onward, the Colombian government has improved the regulatory environment by strengthening policies and institutions with the aim of increasing productivity, accelerating economic growth, and promoting competitiveness. During the last eight years, Colombia gained 30 ranks in the World Bank Doing Business classification to hold a position ahead of all Latin American countries except Chile and Peru (same ranking) (Figure 1). The difference with Argentina, Brasil, Ecuador and Venezuela is very significant. Twenty-five programs were implemented with the objective to facilitate entrepreneurship. The most important improvements were in the areas of firms creation, paying taxes and protection of investors. The focus of the reforms was the reduction in transaction costs, for instance through the creation of one-stop-shop systems for starting a business, registering property and trading across borders. Electronic data interchange systems were developed to file and pay national taxes, duties and social security contributions. In December 2012, the government passed reforms lowering the cost to hire workers and modifying the general royalty system to stimulate investments and regional development. 7. Doing business: Selected CriteriaColombia fares fairly well for starting a business, paying taxes and construction permits. Its performance is weak for enforcing contracts due to the judicial system and for the cost of importing a container due to local infrastructure (Table 1). It is more expensive to move a container from a Colombian Pacific harbor to Bogota than from China to Colombia. 8. InfrastructureAverage investment in transportation infrastructure in Colombia increased from 0.62% of GDP (2008-2010) to 1.14% (2011-2013). Colombia has a weak ranking in Latin America for roads, railroads, ports and airports due to geography and incomplete road infrastructure. For transportation costs, the country ranks 130 out of 148 in the WEF classification. The government plans to invest 3% of GDP (1% public; 2% concessions) and looks for public-private partnerships to fund its National Development Plan. Huge projects are under way and envisaged. Investments of USD 55 bn are foreseen by 2021 including: Roads: USD 47 bn, 47 projects, construction and rehabilitation of 8,000 km of roads during the coming 5 years. Railroads: 1,154 km, concessions; projects have recently been awarded by tenders. Rivers: 800 km for maintenance of Rio Magdalena. Ports and airports: several projects are under way. 9. Other Issues6 Education: while 87% of the children get a primary school education, the number drops to 71% for secondary school. Colombia ranks very low internationally in the PISA ranking (the assessment of 15-year-old students’ proficiency in reading, mathematics and science…but still better than Brazil, Argentina and Peru) and the PIRLS test (10-year old, reading). Three universities get 50% of the public funds, reflecting a very high concentration. Overall, the level of English is low and there is a lack of specialists in technical fields such as software. Major efforts were made during the past ten years to increase technical education with significant results registered by SENA (Servicio Nacional de Aprendizaje). Innovation: 60% of the firms in manufacturing and 68% in services do not innovate. Invention is much more developed in Brazil, Mexico and Chile with coefficients 7.6, 4.5 and 1.3 times larger than in Colombia. R&D: resources allocated to R&D remain modest at 0.2% of GDP and are much smaller than in Brazil (1.2%) and in the OECD countries (2.4%). Justice: there is a lack of mechanisms to enforce contracts and apply rules and a significant backlog of cases. Various measures were taken to address this, including the compilation of an inventory of the various types of cases in cooperation with the World Bank. The judicial system must also be modernized. A strategic plan is under way to deal with electronic processes, information and judicial training. Energy costs: they are higher than in the USA and Peru. Corruption: it is a significant problem in both the public and private sector. In 2013, Colombia’s ranking (129) was lower than Brazil (133) but higher than Peru (111), Mexico (105), Panama (85) or Chile (23)7. In the public sector, the perception of corruption is highest for political parties and Congress (4.3 on a scale up to 5), public officials (4), the judicial system, health services (3.8) and the police (3.7). Transparency norms are not met by several departments. In the private sector, corruption is mostly present with payments to facilitate and accelerate procedures. The costs for society are very high in terms of misallocation of resources which should instead be devoted to education, health and infrastructure. The cost of doing business is higher and foreign investors are affected. There is a need to develop a culture of prevention. Various measures are being taken including the adoption of the OECD Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions and the establishment of the Transparency Secretariat in charge of designing a public anti-corruption policy and to coordinate public entities. 10. Political Issues: Peace ProcessNegotiations with the FARC are under way under a six-point program; three parts are concluded: a) Comprehensive agrarian development policy: aims at transforming the conditions in the countryside and reversing the effects of violence. It is necessary to close a big gap between the urban and the rural worlds with programs providing a boost to farmers’ living conditions; the government is aware that violence has flourished there due to extreme poverty, lack of opportunities and weakness of institutions to regulate public life. b) Political participation of the FARC: the objective is to break forever the link between political activity and weapons and reestablish a basic rule of society: “that nobody uses weapons to promote his political ideas and that nobody that promotes his political ideas be victim of violence8“. The essence of any peace process is to facilitate the transformation of an armed group into a political movement in a democratic environment. To succeed, the whole population – farmers, indigens, Afro-Descendants, business people, scholars, social organisers, members of the church – must feel part of the same system. It will be essential that the central, regional and local authorities work together to build an harmonious and cohesive society. Consensus has been reached on: rights and guarantees in general for the exercise of political opposition; democratic mechanisms for citizen participation; effective measures to promote wider political participation at national, regional and local level from all sectors of society, including the most vulnerable and with security guarantees. c) Solution of issues related to illicit drugs: the agreement covers first comprehensive development plans including community participation in the design, execution and evaluation of the substitution and environmental recovery programs for the areas affected by illicit crops; second, drug use prevention and public health programs; and, third, measures against narcotics production and commercialization. The three pending issues refer to a) ending the warfare, disarming the guerrillas and punishments; b) rights of the victims; and, c) implementation, verification and endorsement of the peace agreement. The negotiations must deal with the reincorporation of the guerrillas into society. It is not enough to demobilize them. Land restitution must also be addressed: it is a basic element of justice during a transition. The government has launched an ambitious plan which will be more effective if the land is being given back under the framework of development programs. Difficult questions include: to whom should the land be distributed? To the victims, to the farmers without land or to the ex-guerrillas? Any agreement with the FARC will be submitted to the Colombian population for approval. Colombia has witnessed a significant improvement in security matters during the past years. The current peace process opens the possibility for a new era. The obstacles are nevertheless significant: corruption, clientelism, networks of interest and organized crime threaten a transition. Conclusion Colombia is a high middle-income emerging economy with strong macro-economic fundamentals and a significant potential. China’s competition, the dependence on commodities and competitiveness represent significant challenges. The major tasks ahead refer to diversifying the economy to break the vicious circles of poverty, violence and insecurity and to bringing the internal conflict to an end: a virtuous circle benefitting the whole society would then ensue. 1 This article is based on a presentation at the 4th Impact Economy Symposium & Retreat held at Greifenstein Castle located in Thal, Switzerland, June 13-15 2014. The author sincerely thanks Beatriz Londoño Soto, Ambassador of the Republic of Colombia in Bern and Bernardo Romero Calderon for valuable information on Colombia. The views expressed are exclusively the author’s.2 In force: Canada, Chile, China, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, India, Liechtenstein, Mexico, Peru, Spain, Switzerland, United States. In negotiation: Azerbaijan, Israel, Kuwait, Panama, Russia, Turkey, Quatar, Uruguay.3 In force: Bolivia, Canada, Chile, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Spain, Switzerland. In negotiation: Belgium, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, United States.4 Ratio of imports and exports to GDP.5 Mexico (61.7%), Chile (58.8%), Peru (47.1%)6 Consejo Privado de Competitividad, Informe Nacional de Competitividad 2013-2014, Bogota, 2013.7 WEF, Global Competitiveness Report, Geneva, 2013.8 Sergio Jaramillo, La Paz territorial, Speech, Harvard University, March 13, 2014. S. Jaramillo is Presidential Commissioner for Peace, negotiator in the current peace process with the FARC. The Future Now Show – Launch in September 2014 Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month, for 15 minutes, we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show features October Event: the future of Historic Pianos the future of Historic PianosMonday, October 13, 2014Location: Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC Amsterdam [this is not the regular museum entrance]The conference language is English.A collaboration between Geelvinck Museum Hinlopen Huis and the Club of Amsterdam and supported by PerspeXo. WithAnnegien Blokpoel, CEO, PerspeXo, Co-ModeratorThe Club of Amsterdam in 2014 & 2015 Jurn Buisman, The Sweelinck CollectionGöran Grahn, orgel, fortepiano, clavecimbelGiovanni di Stefano, Curator of Musical Instruments, Rijksmuseum Amsterdam Panel Richard Egarr, Conservatorium AmsterdamDick Verel, Museum of musical instruments Vosbergen, Eelde and more .. Transformation, Liminality and Change by Colette Kavanagh, Ph.D., Cultural Psychologist. The world as we know it is ending. There are changes in the economy, the climate, technology and lifestyle with globalization, technology and the internet accelerating this process. The evolution of societies worldwide is dependent upon the ability to generate new ideas, transform infrastructures, design new cities, services, products, organizations and companies. We need an in-depth understanding of the concept of liminality while also creating new systems of education and transforming ourselves. Transformation and change are nothing new. Since the beginning of history indigenous societies were faced with the necessity to evolve, and those who failed to do so did not survive. However, the exaltation of scientific and technological reasoning has had its price and all around us we see its negative effects. In these times of spiritual, social, and economic breakdown, Western society is no longer equipped to deal with the disruption of liminality, nor able to integrate the tools for renewal. It is difficult for us to incorporate transient realities and transformational movements, and to navigate ourselves through the crucial liminal phase of transition. Liminality is…“an interlude or limen when the past is momentarily negated and the future has not yet begun. It is a period of “fertile chaos” when everything is uncertain, yet one of pure potentiality where the mystery of possibility invites us to explore that which is wanting to emerge” – Colette Kavanagh The word “liminal” comes from the Latin limen. It refers to “the threshold, or the initial stage of a process” (Oxford English Dictionary 8: 964). The World Book Dictionary defines liminal as “the threshold of perception” (2: 1214). However, it is not one threshold or turning point but two. Liminality is the passage between the two thresholds where one “story” or experience ends and a new one begins. In simplistic terms, the first threshold to be crossed is leaving the “old story” or pre-liminal phase. For example, a period in one’s personal life, a job, a marriage, or a company’s way of being in the world may need to come to an end. However, without successfully navigating one’s way through the liminal passage where transformation takes place, one cannot hope to successfully enter the post-liminal phase or “new story” with any degree of success. Transformation and change are not the same dynamic and need to be understood separately. Change frequently involves outer adaptations to a new experience. For example, a company may re-design its logo, modernize its image, uniforms, technology, the interior of their premises or even appoint new leaders. However, the change is results focused and usually involves a shift in the external situations based upon somebody’s perception of a problem. Change is much easier for people to accept than transformation. Transformation is the inner psychological process that people need to go through to come to terms with change. It involves the three-phase process mentioned above and may not be accompanied by short-term productivity. Therefore modern culture sees the liminal phase of transition as failure. It tries to quickly by-pass it especially when it is accompanied with a great deal of resistence and the outcome is uncertain. However, the greater the change the more attention needs to be given to this liminal phase of transition. Liminality can best be described as “fertile chaos,” a storehouse of creative possibilities striving after new forms and structure, or a gestation process. It is what goes on in nature in the fertilized egg, in the chrysalis, and even more richly and complexly in it’s cultural homologues. Liminality is the seedbeds of cultural creativity, an abyss of pure potential: a no-man’s land betwixt and between the structural past and the structural future. Liminality is vital to the maturation of any culture, society, organization, religion or company that wishes to serve the deepest needs of its people. Society is open-ended and is constantly re-generating itself. At socially significant moments in time, between fixed cultural categories, when elements of structural organization are temporarily removed or rearranged, cultural creation takes place. In liminality, the individual may suffer a loss of identity. The previous social status may no longer be effective, yet the new identity role has not yet manifested. This transitional phase is disorientating because it involves significant changes in the dominant self. Individuals will be at different stages of transformation along the change curve and the emotional response to change needs to be recognised. Leaders of change also need to consider their own process of transition. In the liminal or transitional phase of the transformational process, one enters an in-between space or time where creativity is at its most intense. It is a state where new values, behaviours, social dynamics and functions or structures are emerging and coordinated. It is vitally important that this phase is not completed too quickly. The necessity to adapt to market dynamics and pressure for innovation requires individuals and corporations to continuously transform themselves. However, the process of transformation takes time, and if the liminal phase is not given its due space the positive effects of transition will be lost. Colette Kavanagh, Ph.D., lives in Amsterdam. She is a Cultural Psychologist who lectures internationally and has spent the past twenty years specializing in transformation, liminality and change. When Pope Benedict unexpectedly resigned in 2013, the Catholic world was thrown into a state of chaos and liminality. If a pope could resign, future popes could, perhaps, be forced to resign!! At that moment, the University of California invited Colette to speak for half an hour on their radio station to discuss this historical transition and what it might involve for Roman Catholics worldwide. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy News about the Future Nanotechnology for multifunctional roads For Germany an increase in heavy traffic volume of about 40% within the next 15 years is predicted. Under these circumstances it is desirable to have construction methods both for durable and noise reducing road pavements. Nano-optimized concrete is a suitable material for this purpose. In the research project of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research nanooptimized ultra high performance concrete is developed for multifunctional roads. Ultra high performance concrete (UHPC) is durable, robust, bearing and fine-grained. Thus it is appropriate for realizing specially designed low noise road surface textures achieving pass-by level reductions up to 5 dB and at the same time providing good grip. In a joint project with nine partners these textures were to be produced in road surfaces made from UHPC. The main tasks included adapting the composition of the UHPC to the purposes of site mixing and texturing, adapting the predefined texture and the texturing method to the specific characteristics of UHPC, reducing the energy consumption required for producing the UHPC-compound by 40 % compared to standard UHPC-mixes. Appropriate mixing and construction technologies for on site construction in UHPC were developed. Bottling Up Sound Waves Berkeley Lab researchers have developed a technique for generating acoustic bottles in open air that can bend the paths of sound waves along prescribed convex trajectories. These self-bending bottle beams hold promise for ultrasonic imaging and therapy, and for acoustic cloaking, levitation and particle manipulation. “We need to find ways to bend acoustic wave fields without depending on the use of a highly engineered medium,” says Xiang Zhang, director of Berkeley Lab’s Materials Sciences Division. “With our bottle beam technique, we can design and synthesize acoustic bottles that are capable of directing sound waves along paths of desired curvature through homogeneous space without the need of metamaterials or any other highly engineered medium.” “Our technique offers a new degree of freedom for controlling the flow of acoustic energy at will.” “These giant acoustic traps could lead to new technologies and devices for a variety of applications in chemistry, materials, as well as biosciences,” he says. “For example, by creating this three-dimensional bottle-like acoustic trap, we could use it as a micro-chemical reactor and manipulation of biological trafficking devices.” Recommended Book Flash Foresight: How to See the Invisible and Do the Impossibleby Daniel Burrus (Author), John David Mann (Contributor)Flash Foresight offers seven radical principles you need to transform your business today. From internationally renowned technology forecaster Daniel Burrus – a leading consultant to Google, Proctor & Gamble, IBM, and many other Fortune 500 firms – with John David Mann, co-author of the Wall Street Journal bestseller The Go-Giver, comes this systematic, easy-to-implement method for identifying new business opportunities and solving difficult problems in the twenty-first century marketplace. Climate change adaptation can help promote sub-Saharan African livelihoods A UN report. Investing in ways to adapt to climate change will promote the livelihood of 65 per cent of Africans, the United Nations environmental agency reported, warning also that failing to address the phenomenon could reverse decades of development progress on the continent. Africa’s population is set to double to 2 billion by 2050, the majority of whom will continue to depend on agriculture to make a living, according to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). “With 94 per cent of agriculture dependent on rainfall, the future impacts of climate change – including increased droughts, flooding, and seal-level rise – may reduce crop yields in some parts of Africa by 15 – 20 per cent,” UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said. “Such a scenario, if unaddressed, could have grave implications for Africa’s most vulnerable states,” he added. In a new graphical report, Keeping Track of Adaptation Actions in Africa (KTAA) – Targeted Fiscal Stimulus Actions Making a Difference [pdf], UNEP details the implications of climate change, and provides examples of adaptation projects that range from forest ecosystem management to aquatics and agriculture. The report describes sustainable examples of how countries in sub-Saharan Africa enhanced environmental and ecosystem resilience through the use of native plants and natural infrastructure, land plans and rainwater harvesting, among other examples. The projects are integrated into national development policies which can strengthen and enhance the resilience communities against the impacts of climate change, while also contributing to the realization of the anti-poverty targets known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), according to the report authors. “By integrating climate change adaptation strategies in national development policies Governments can provide transitional pathways to green growth and protect and improve the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of Africans,” Mr. Steiner noted. The projects also highlight the urgency to act now in adapting to challenges, especially in developing countries where capabilities to respond to the magnitude of the problem are limited. This year’s Africa Environment Day, marked annually on 3 March, focused on combating desertification on the continent and enhancing its agriculture and food security. The continent has lost 65 per cent of its agricultural land since 1950 due to land degradation, according to figures cited by UNEP. Up to 12 per cent of its agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) is lost due to deteriorating conditions and 135 million people are at risk of having to move from their land by 2020 due to desertification. Neuromorphic ‘atomic-switch’ networks function like synapses in the brain International Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics (MANA): While modern computers have revolutionized information processing, the mammalian brain continues to reign supreme in tasks such as recognizing sounds or objects, reading handwriting, or predicting where food may be found based on both memory and environmental clues. This contrast in performance stems from the radically divergent physical structures and operating mechanisms of neuronal networks and digital circuits. Computers employ a microprocessor to rapidly perform simple, error-free calculations in a sequential fashion and store data in physically separate memory banks. In contrast, the brain comprises a vast network of neurons serving simultaneously as both information processors and memory units, resulting in comparatively slow and imprecise operations in a parallel or distributed manner. Most efforts to mimic brain function involve programming computers to create virtual neural networks. However, researchers at the California NanoSystems Institute (CNSI) at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the International Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics (MANA) at the National Institute for Materials Science, Japan are developing a neuromorphic device designed to incorporate structural aspects inspired by the cortical neuropil and produce the class of operational properties which underlie cognition in the mammalian brain. The atomic switch, a recently developed nanoscale circuit element, has been shown to possess synapse-like properties in a purely inorganic device. Using a nanoarchitectonic approach, millions of atomic switch elements are incorporated into a densely interconnected network of silver nanowires. These atomic switch networks (ASN) retain the synaptic properties of their of individual component elements and generate emergent behaviors comprised of their distributed, collective interactions. Such emergent behaviors are a principal characteristic of biological neural networks and many other complex systems. Ongoing studies involve the utilization of these emergent behaviors for information processing toward the generation of a new class of cognitive technologies. A look inside the ASN device reveals its highly interconnected architecture which comprises synaptic circuit elements at each point of contact between nanowires. The collective interactions between these atomic switches result in unique, emergent properties which have shown significant potential for neuromorphic computing. Futurist Portrait: Riel Miller Riel Miller, head of Foresight at UNESCO For thirty years Riel has been co-creating innovation, leadership and transformation in both the public and private sectors around the world. He is one of the world’s leading strategic foresight designers and practitioners. Currently Riel holds the position of Head of Foresight at UNESCO in Paris. Previously he has worked as a senior manager in the Ontario public service (Ministries of Finance; Universities; and Industry) and for some thirteen years in total at the OECD in Paris (Directorates of Economics; Science & Technology; Education; Territorial Development; Development Centre; International Futures Programme). In 2005 he founded an independent consultancy – xperidox (which means knowledge through experience) to advise clients on how to use the future more effectively . Since 1988, when he managed his first major participatory foresight exercise (Vision 2000), Riel has designed over fifty applied futures projects around the world, large and small scale, public and private. He is an accomplished and innovative designer of processes for using the future to make decisions in the present. Quote`[…] Open learning and closed learning can generate similar capabilities – a better understanding of knowledge creation and acquisition. While closed learning emphasizes internalization of existing knowledge and the development of pre-defined skills and competences, open learning emphasizes the process of learning itself. Open learning occurs in social networks where learners gain and construct new knowledge and capabilities. It is often self-directed and problem-oriented. It is self-motivated, grounded in the learner’s personal context, and often it leads to very rapid competence development. The learning-to-learn that can augment closed learning and vice-versa. […]` – Promethean Thinking Deeper Research Paper No.2 – Introduction and Overview – Riel Miller Interview of Riel Miller by Sirkka Heinonen on Creativity and Futures Design2011 Agenda Watch The Future Now Show! Season Events 2014 / 2015October 13, 2014the future of Historic PianosLocation: Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis, Herengracht 518, 1017 CC AmsterdamThis is a collaboration between Museum Geelvinck Hinlopen Huis and the Club of Amsterdam. UKJanuary 28, 2015the future of Collective IntelligenceLocation: The Cube, Stdio 5, 155 Commercial Street, London E1 6BJThis is a collaboration between The Cube and the Club of Amsterdam. Special Supporters printable version
Content Europe’s Rare Earth dependence on China – Future PerspectivesThe Future Now Show Energy InnovationClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureRecommended Book: The Future of Continental Philosophy of Religion The Asian Square Dance – 1st partISIS and Western intelligence role in the Middle EastFuturist Portrait: Geci Karuri-Sebina Agenda Special supporters Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the ClubofAmsterdam Journal. The first shows are online – with topics like climate change, food,social revolution, 3-D printing and medicine, marketing made meaningful, balanced communities and … The Future Now Show Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Europe’s Rare Earth dependence on China – Future Perspectives by Patrick CrehanCEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & AssociatesDirector, Club of Amsterdam Rare Earth Elements (REEs) form a group of 17 metals which play a very important role in modern industry, especially in the clean-tech and electronic sectors. Despite their name they are not really all that rare. However they are costly to extract, and sites from which their extraction makes commercial sense are relatively few and far between. First discovered in Sweden in the late 1700s, they now play a very important role in modern industry as essential ingredients in: Energy Efficient Electrical Motors: A modern car can contain 60 electrical motors, doing all manner of things from adjusting the seats and the side-view mirrors to winding the windows up and down, controlling the air-conditioning and driving the windscreen wipers. REEs allow manufacturers to reduce their size and weight, while improving their energy efficiency. Modern electrical appliances for use at work or around the home try to be smaller and lighter cutting down on transport costs, while doing the same or better work using less energy. Wind Turbines and Hybrid Electric Cars: The generators of modern wind turbines contain many Tonnes of rare-earth metals. The turbine pictured below is produced by a Finnish company called Switch. Capable of generating 2.5MW, its permanent magnet is an alloy of neodymium and weighs 2000kg. About 30% of this by weight is REE. Speakers and Microphones: For example the small powerful energy efficient ones used in modern mobile phones. Other Uses: Disc drives, flat panel displays, the “phosphor” of traditional TVs and fluorescent light bulbs, new high efficiency light bulbs based on CFL and LED technologies, catalytic converters. The picture below shows an example of a turbine for production of wind-energy. This particular model is produced by a Finish company called Switch. It has an output of up to 3.5MW and employs a permanent magnet containing 2,000 kg of REE alloy. Modern mobile phones use small but essential quantities of REEs. Making the iPhone for example requires 9 different REEs in the screen and to polish the glass of the screen, in the microphone and vibration unit, as well as in its electronic circuitry. The following able was developed by CNET journalist Mark Hobbes. It is easy to see why the demand for REES has developed very rapidly in the last few decades and is likely to continue to increase in future. In 1990 China produced 27% of REEs and related minerals. By 2009, global production was of the order of 132,000 Tonnes of which China produced 129,000 Tonnes equal to almost 98% of global production. According to Wikipedia we are now in the “Chinese Era” of REE production. Things started to get tense however in about 2009 when China announced a plan to reduce exports of REES to 35,000 Tonnes per annum over the period 2010-2015, ostensibly to conserve scarce natural resources and protect the environment. This was followed up by a series of revisions of this policy, which in each case amounted to further limits on the export of REEs, including a total ban on exports to countries like Japan. The result was market chaos as prices rose out of control for a while and a number of REE consumers bought up reserves in a panic to ensure suppliers. This began a period of trade tension between China and other countries including Japan, the US and Europe. Cases brought against China at the WTO, have ruled in favor of the plaintiffs and China is currently in the process of appealing the judgments. In fairness, China is not only the biggest producers of REEs, it is also the biggest consumer. Demand for REEs has grown as fast in China as it has elsewhere. China also had very real concerns about the environmental damage and public health impact of illegal mining activities that had grown up in response to burgeoning domestic and international demand. According to a recent report published on the website of Rare Earth Investing News, 40% of magnetic REE mining supply in China is illegal. These activities are often mom-and-pop affairs described by one of the exports at the EIAS as an opportunistic situation where someone digs a whole in the ground, fills it full of sulphuric acid, waits a while, then scoops up a part of what is produced for further processing, before moving on to dig another hole without much care for the overall consequences on the environment, local water resources or the health of workers involved. Other commentators such as The Economist have pointed out that export restrictions apply only to the raw materials and not to intermediate or finished goods. They observe that this is a very good strategy to help Chinese manufacturers move up the value chain, by “forcing” foreign manufacturers to outsource or relocate at least some of their manufacturing tasks to China. The case of General Motors moving its magnetic research facilities to China in 2006 has been put forward as evidence in support of this hypothesis. The last word has not yet been printed on the WTO case against China. No doubt it will generate headlines in the months and years to come. One of the main messages of the EIAS meeting was that the demand for REES has actually fallen since the crisis. One of the reasons put forward is that many who were in the market for REES are not permanently out because they have found other ways for doing what they did with REEs. Apparently this substitution effect has happened to some extent across all domains of application of REEs. It is possible also to imagine a natural fall-off in demand due to the global crisis that has reduced spending by individuals and by governments. Renewable energy policies for example should be seen as major drivers of demand for REEs based products. Another big driver should be overall global population growth. It seems that there is room to continue the conversation started at the EIAS and develop scenarios based on realistic assumptions about the impact of global growth, energy, environment and climate change policies on future demand for REEs. Another major message coming out of the meeting seemed to be that nervousness concerning sources of REEs may be overblown. A representative of Molycorp, a major US producer of REEs based at Mountain Pass in California, pointed out that the Chinese share of production has fallen a long way from the highs of 2009 and 2010 and is now at about 82%, far from the 95% or 97% often quoted in the press. It seems many new sites are coming on line. Molycorp itself has made very important investments in its production facilities. To thoroughly re-invent and modernize its system of production based on in California it has had to obtain more than 500 permits. According to its representative, its new facilities are exemplars of industrial and environmental good practice, allowing it to produce at prices that are competitive with respect to China. Things look calm and stable for now and the pressure causes by Chinese limits on production and export is much lower for now. However the questions remain as to how long this might remain and what impact will growth and progressive policies in emerging economies have on demand and the adequacy of available supplies. In the case of Japan, its reaction to the crisis of 2009-2011 includes initiatives to look into other sources of REEs, for example on the sea-bed. Already interesting prospects for commercially viable under sea sources of REEs seem to have emerged in the regions close to Japan. This indicates that the full range of possible sources of commercially viable REEs has not at all been fully explored. Another reaction in Japan has been to look at the opportunities presented by recycling. Electronic waste is a rich source of REEs through recycling. Unused electronic goods in Japan alone are estimated to contain of the order of 300,000 Tonnes of REEs. Several industrial initiatives have been set up to tap into this opportunity. The extraction of metals from land-fill or urban waste is often referred to as “urban mining.” In the case of e-waste in Europe however it is problematic. E-waste is often classified as hazardous due to the presence of metals and other components that are ultimately seen as harmful to health or the environment, and therefore subject to strict controls in terms of handling and disposal. For this reason e-waste is often wrongly classified as “used goods” and exported without treatment. In this way large quantities of strategically important minerals that could in principle be recovered and recycled are exported from Europe to landfill sites in far-away places such as Africa. One of the “incentives” for doing this seems to be the relatively high cost of recycling of e-waste. In actual fact many exciting and highly effective technologies now exist based on closed-loop chemical processes that enable the recovery of REEs in industry friendly forms, as useful oxides, alloys and mixtures. At the EIAS meeting a German company called Loser Chemie gave an excellent overview of what is nowadays possible. To be really effective these techniques need to be combined with sorting strategies that are “aware” of the REE content of e-waste. A more transparent and liquid market for REEs extracted in this way would help. According to the CTO of Loser Chemie, not even 1% of the potential for recycling REEs in Europe is currently being exploited. It seems that there are many entrepreneurial opportunities for those with the knowledge and vision to make the leap. It would be nice to have a better grasp of the size of the opportunity that represents for Europe. Maybe this is a good question for someone else to take up as a way of building upon the debate started by this initiative of the EIAS. The final question is to ask “how did we end up in this position of crisis in 2010” to start with. According to an online MIT resource dealing with The Future of Strategic Natural Resources, the entire world is still in danger of a resource crisis. Since the 1960s, China developed a strong mineral policy that was in line with its own growth needs, its natural advantage in terms of high quality deposits and low labor costs, while the rest of the world sat by and allowed itself to become dependent on a single country to meet the majority of its needs. Our last though is what ne3ds to be done to avoid this kind of situation ever arising again. 14 October 2014, the EIAS (European Institute for Asian Studies) organized a briefing seminar on “Europe’s Rare Earth dependence on China – Future Perspectives”. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show October 2014about 3-D printing and medicine, marketing made meaningful, balanced communities and … FeaturingLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc.Mylena de Pierremont, Board Member, World Future SocietyPatrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & AssociatesMarkus Petz, Head of Special Projects & Development, Experience Alternative Tampere 3-D printing services are popping up everywhere, but, given their low scalability, where will their biggest impact be? Patrick Crehan reckons that it will be in printing living things. Not whole beasts but organs, from skin (already available) to hearts. The panel discusses the ethical implications, pulling in the increasing ability to build life from DNA up. Sounds scary? It probably isn’t. Probably… Talking about scary, what about massive corporations, whose wealth affords enormous power but whose primary driving force (shareholder value) is fundamentally amoral? Mylena de Pierremont suggests that societal pressures (presumably fuelled by enhanced global communication and wider investor spread) are driving a new business model whereby things like transparency, sustainability and corporate responsibility equate to shareholder value. Maybe those ‘evil giants’ need not be defeated but can be converted. Mark Petz introduces the ‘global village’, as typified by the balance4yourlife project, billed as a new form of ‘intentional community’ – a sustainable urban village firmly anchored in the modern, interconnected world. While global populations are increasingly migrating to cities and city living is proving the most sustainable, can this concept buck that trend? After all, modern communications are often making geographical proximity less important. The attraction of villages, green fields and trees aside, is the small inclusive community, for which humans have arguably evolved, the antithesis of the impersonal anonymity of city life. Is the global village then a potential model for the future, maybe alongside cities? And will we all be invited? – By Paul Holister, Editor The Future Now Show September 2014about Climate Change, Food, Social Revolution and … FeaturingLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc.Kirsten van Dam, Director & Founder, Out Of OfficeArjen Kamphuis, Futurist, Co-founder, CTO, GendoHardy F. Schloer, Managing Director, Schloer Consulting Group Arjen Kamphuis calls climate change humanity’s greatest threat. How will we deal with this and with resource depletion, as forecast famously by the Club of Rome in the ‘70s? Does the point of no return for a solution lie ahead or has it passed and, if so, with what consequences? Kirsten van Dam poses a related critical question, how to feed an ever-increasing population in a time of diminishing resources? Will technology provide an answer, as it has done before, or does mass starvation threaten? A re-run of the Rome model in 2005 forecast collapse for any reasonable input values. And how bad could runaway climate change become? Some suggest a reduction of the Earth’s carrying capacity to 2 million souls. One respectable commentator suggests that a transition to a lifeless new Venus is conceivable. A great threat indeed. Joining the discussion are Hardy Schloer and moderator Lise Voldeng. Solutions might require complete abandonment of the cultural and economic models born with the Industrial Revolution. But how much pain is needed to bring about such a revolution? Hardy Schloer sees a common thread in recent events such as the Arab Spring, ISIS, the troubles in Ukraine and more – the uprising of groups defined by cultural or ethnic heritage, united in their rage against the machine. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the nation state (a relatively recent construct anyway)? Will a more natural new world order emerge, or an older one re-emerge? How ugly might the transition be? These questions are discussed with Arjen Kamphuis, Kirsten van Dam and moderator Lise Voldeng and it is agreed that the recent revolution in global communications is central, now and for the future. Maybe borders are obstacles and traditional democracy is outdated. Maybe we need a sense of belonging and usefulness that is framed around humanity rather than a nation or economic interests. – By Paul Holister, Editor Energy Innovation Elon Musk is a South Africa-born, Canadian American business magnate, inventor, and investor. He is the CEO and CTO of SpaceX, CEO and chief product architect of Tesla Motors, and chairman of SolarCity. He is the founder SpaceX and considered by many to be the cofounder of PayPal,] Tesla Motors, and Zip2. He has also envisioned a conceptual high-speed transportation system known as the Hyperloop. Steven Chu is an American physicist who served as the 12th United States Secretary of Energy from 2009 to 2013. Chu is known for his research at Bell Labs in cooling and trapping of atoms with laser light, which won him the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1997, along with his scientific colleagues Claude Cohen-Tannoudji and William Daniel Phillips. At the time of his appointment as Energy Secretary, he was a professor of physics and molecular and cellular biology at the University of California, Berkeley, and the director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where his research was concerned primarily with the study of biological systems at the single molecule level. Previously, he had been a professor of physics at Stanford University. He is a vocal advocate for more research into renewable energy and nuclear power, arguing that a shift away from fossil fuels is essential to combating climate change. Elon Musk and Steven Chu at the energy innovation Summit 2014 Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy News about the Future Implants That Trigger Self-Healing DARPA’s ElectRx program plans to develop technologies to restore and maintain healthy physiological status through monitoring and targeted regulation of signaling in peripheral nerves that control organ functions. Novel therapies based on targeted stimulation of the peripheral nervous system could promote self-healing, reduce dependence on traditional drugs and provide new treatment options for illnesses. ElectRx is also expected to improve peripheral nerve stimulation treatments for brain and mental health disorders, such as epilepsy, traumatic brain injury (TBI), Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) and depression. Achieving DARPA’s goals for the program would require new technologies for in vivo sensing and neural stimulation, including advanced biosensors and novel optical, acoustic and electromagnetic devices to achieve precise targeting of individual or small bundles of nerve fibers that control relevant organ functions. “The technology DARPA plans to develop through the ElectRx program could fundamentally change the manner in which doctors diagnose, monitor and treat injury and illness,” said Doug Weber, DARPA program manager. “Instead of relying only on medication—we envision a closed-loop system that would work in concept like a tiny, intelligent pacemaker. It would continually assess conditions and provide stimulus patterns tailored to help maintain healthy organ function, helping patients get healthy and stay healthy using their body’s own systems.” Adenosine can melt “love handles” Researchers at the University of Bonn discover a new signaling pathway to combat excess body weight. The number of overweight persons is greatly increasing worldwide – and as a result is the risk of suffering a heart attack, stroke, diabetes or Alzheimer’s disease. For this reason, many people dream of an efficient method for losing weight. An international team of researchers led by Professor Alexander Pfeifer from the University Hospital Bonn, have now come one step closer to this goal. The scientists discovered a new way to stimulate brown fat and thus burn energy from food: The body’s own adenosine activates brown fat and “browns” white fat. “Not all fat is equal,” says Professor Alexander Pfeifer from the Institute of Pharmacology and Toxicology of the University Hospital Bonn. Humans have two different types of fat: undesirable white fat cells which form bothersome “love handles”, for example, as well as brown fat cells, which act like a desirable heater to convert excess energy into heat. “If we are able to activate brown fat cells or to convert white fat cells into brown ones, it might be possible to simply melt excess fat away” reports the pharmacologist. “If adenosine binds to this receptor in brown fat cells, fat burning is significantly stimulated,” reports Dr. Thorsten Gnad from Prof. Pfeifer’s team. It was previously thought not possible for adenosine to activate brown fat. Several studies with rats and hamsters demonstrated that adenosine blocks brown fat. Recommended Book The Future of Continental Philosophy of Religionby Clayton Crockett (Editor), B. Keith Putt (Editor), Jeffrey W. Robbins (Editor) What is the future of Continental philosophy of religion? These forward-looking essays address the new thinkers and movements that have gained prominence since the generation of Derrida, Deleuze, Foucault, and Levinas and how they will reshape Continental philosophy of religion in the years to come. They look at the ways concepts such as liberation, sovereignty, and post-colonialism have engaged this new generation with political theology and the new pathways of thought that have opened in the wake of speculative realism and recent findings in neuroscience and evolutionary psychology. Readers will discover new directions in this challenging and important area of philosophical inquiry. The AsianSquare Dance – 1st part By Michael Akerib, Vice-Rector, SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY Goldman Sachs first coined the expression BRICs – Brazil, Russia, India and China – to identify the economic giants of the future that will reshape the world economic order. While Russia’s economy is linked to the prices of commodities, energy in particular, Brazil has not lived up to expectations. Of the four countries, China and India have shown the most impressive growth in recent years with, respectively, 10% and 8%. Excluding Brazil, the population of the BRIC represents 40% of the world’s inhabitants. With Asia, reckoned to be today the most dynamic continent, accounting for 65% of the world’s population, and China and India together accounting for 40%, these two countries can potentially alter the fragile equilibrium of the world’s economy. It is forecast that by 2030 the East Asian economies will be the world’s largest economic bloc. Due to diverging political ideologies and concerns, however, this bloc does not, in fact, exist other than in prose. Even worse, all the countries in the area have made significant investments in military equipment over the recent past thus sharply increasing the risk of conflict particularly as fears grow over China’s intentions. The US’ dream, during the cold war, of creating an Asian equivalent to NATO was short lived. Today, Asia has five nuclear powers: Pakistan, India, China, North Korea and Russia. On the other hand, the US is constrained by budgetary problems. Our argument in this series of articles is that the development of Asia, and its impact on the rest of the world, depends to a large extent on the relations between five countries: China, India, Japan, South Korea and the US. Depending on the structure of the type of relations that will develop, and choices made by Russia and the US, for instance on their energy policy, we may see a new world order developing, very different from that of the last four hundred years. Further, if the Chinese economy faces difficulties in the future, the US will be instrumental in determining Asia’s future. Conversely, if the US economy falters, China, if it so wishes, could assume the world’s economic leadership. Since the end of the Second World War, the US’ role in the area has been a major influencing factor politically, militarily and economically and while it has declined recently, it remains, nevertheless, important. Asia is challenging the EU as the world’s most important trade bloc. The US imports from Asia for over $2 trillion per year, thus making the US responsible for the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs. A weakening of the US dollar could significantly diminish the US’ role in the region. At issue here is what A F K Organski has termed ‘Power transition theory’ – i.e. the change of the guard of the dominant power where the dominant power occupies this position because of its control of resources, be they demographic, economic, geographic, natural or military. According to the theory, the dominant power, or powers, must ensure the stability of the system failing what the system might be challenged by an emerging hegemon. These situations are conducive to confrontation, very often military. The emerging hegemon is, no doubt, China, and the events in Eurasia, over the coming quarter century will witness an indirect confrontation between China and the US, a confrontation whose secondary actors are India and Russia. Is China striving to attain the status of great power and challenge the US, at least regionally, and what role do the other regional powers, as well as Russia and the US play? Or is it just trying to reduce its feeling of being surrounded by enemies? Asia has become a powerhouse with several countries showing economic strength and appearing to be rivals. A dangerous rivalry inasmuch as five countries in the area have a nuclear arsenal (China, India, North Korea, Pakistan and Russia), with two more (Japan and South Korea) able to produce a nuclear bomb in a relatively short time. Monetary reserves in Asia are sufficient to allow the area to develop without much further foreign investments. Further, an increase in economic stability is heralded by the recent agreement between several Asian countries – the members of ASEAN, China, Japan and South Korea – to pool their financial resources in case of a speculative attack. While the major trade partner of most of the countries in the area is Australia, the European Union and the United States, regional trade has increased considerably. Services such as tourism also cater increasingly to Asians. There remains the question of whether the continent is able to develop its own technological base to compete with Europe and the US. There are diverging points of view on the issue. The perception by the Asian countries of the effect of China’s domination of the continent evolved into an understanding that they only have two options – siding with China or with Japan and its US ally. The financial difficulties originating in the US and which have spilled all over the world have affected Asia in its role of major exporter. As a reaction, China, Japan and South Korea are considering the creation of a community modelled on the European Union that would help them expand trade within their area and increase trade with the ASEAN countries, Russia, the Middle East and Europe. They are encouraged in this action as inter-Asian trade has been growing at twice the rate of global trade. Inter-Asian trade is more important as a percentage of total trade than inter-NAFTA trade. The US should fear the creation of a trading block including China, Japan and South Korea as it would represent 43% of US’ foreign trade and holdings of over one trillion dollars in US Treasury paper.Common problemsThe countries in the area, with the notable exception of Russia, share two major problems: access to raw materials in general, and energy in particular, and an economy essentially geared to exports, and thus very dependent on the purchasing power of EU and US consumers. This last aspect is changing rapidly though with domestic markets starting to take shape and offering local producers a partial insulation from the American-led boom and bust cycles. It is generally felt in the US that China has not been doing enough to stimulate internal demand – the number of consumers is no bigger than Italy while the population is 20 times that of the European country – and that the situation has been worsened by the decision of the Chinese government to peg the Yuan to the US dollar, thus effectively undertaking a devaluation. Should China’s export drive remain as a major contributor the country’s economy, the accumulation of reserves by 2020 will be bigger than that of Germany, Japan and the Middle East countries put together. America’s response could be to return to a more isolationist policy by slapping import duties on Chinese products or getting China to open its doors to greater exports of US products. Both China and India have to contend with an extremely large population. In fact, they are the only two countries with a population of over 1 billion persons. Economic development has brought, to both countries, an uneven distribution of wealth to the extent that social disruptions can be feared in the future. China has become the world’s second largest oil consumer and it is likely that it will surpass the US to lead the world in energy use. Imports which represent 50% of consumption are likely to rise to reach 80% in another 10 – 15 years particularly considering the oil intensity of economic growth is particularly high, as in most developing countries. Thus, for each 1% growth in GDP, the country needs 1.2% additional oil. In fact, China is the world’s fast-growing energy user, Russia is the most inefficient user of energy and he US is the country with the largest carbon footprint. China is also the world’s largest consumer of several raw materials.The country’s search for natural resources has been done in a predatory way, and there is fear that, backed by its staggering reserves, it could encourage suppliers to increase prices at levels beyond those acceptable to a large number of other users. India’s energy requirements are expected to grow by 30% in the next 3 to 5 years and its imported crude oil dependency is expected to reach 95% by 2025. India depends for 50% of its energy needs on coal and increasing its use would create major environmental problems. Its gas suppliers are considered to be relatively unreliable and include Bangladesh, Iran, Myanmar and Turkmenistan. This situation has encouraged India to pursue the road to nuclear power.Such growth in raw material requirements is not sustainable and is strategically dangerous. Both China and India have very large armies (in fact the largest in the world) and nuclear weapons. Japan is also a major energy importer, relying entirely on imports for oil. Japan has an important stockpile of energy products, and it has encouraged other Asian countries, including China, to jointly plan the stocks and their administration. Indeed, Asia’s energy needs are expected to double in the coming 20 years. In spite of this, OPEC countries do not seem to be prepared to invest in increasing production, in large part because of the massive funds required. They have been estimated by McKinsey to be of the order of $ 45 billion a year over the next three decades. The countries in the area perceive themselves as rivals in securing energy sources and China, particularly, has shown an eagerness to develop partnerships, whether through limited investments, or through political support, in the United Nations, of countries like Iran. Hydrocarbon reserves in the China Sea are claimed by several countries, and are a growing point of contention. Neighboring countries are fearful of China’s rising military power and have led them to develop closer relations with the US. In an effort to temper their competition, India and China have made some joint bids to buy and share oil fields. Japan too is dependent on energy imports and has recently been unlucky with their supply sources. Thus, they have had to curtail their investments in Iran, Kuwait, Russia and Saudi Arabia. To counterbalance these losses, Japan has offered Saudi Arabia the possibility of building oil-storage facilities in Okinawa, provided Japan can have access to them in case of emergency. A closer rapprochement between the two countries depends, however, on the US’ willingness for this to take place as the Saudi monarchy depends on the US military shield against the rising threat of Iran and of the djihadists, and there is no way Japan can replace the US in that role. This, in spite of the fact that Asia is today, by far, the largest buyer of both Saudi and more generally, Middle Eastern oil – up to 60% and 70% of their exports, respectively. Reliance on Russia for energy is therefore extremely important. While a pipeline is being built from Siberia to the Pacific that could partly alleviate these escalating needs, a number of other pipeline projects have been proposed. All these projects require large investments ($ 1-2 million per kilometer of pipeline or around $ 12 billion for the pipeline that will link Russia and China), long delays in building and face substantial political and ecological problems. Further, the gas transmission systems in China and Japan are under-developed and therefore not suitable for the transport of large quantities of imported gas. Russian industry has access to gas supplies at prices substantially below those practised on world markets and has therefore become a voracious user. The Russian government will be increasing prices for domestic consumption, including for private heating, and / or turning to alternative energy sources such as coal, hydro-electric or nuclear power. Other possibilities have also been considered, but they all depend on Russia’s cooperation. Thus, for instance, integrating the energy grids of Russia with those of China, Japan and the two Koreas has been proposed to enable the exchange of seasonal surplus. This entails not only Russia’s cooperation, but also North Korea’s. It also requires large investments, although possibly not of the scale of building a pipeline network. Another common point between the China, India, Japan and South Korea is that they constitute, jointly, the world’s largest weapons market and their suppliers are the European Union, Russia and the United States. China and Japan also share the will to stop North Korea’s nuclear program. The two countries are also large emitters of greenhouse gases. Both China and Russia fear, perhaps rightly so, that the US is conducting an encirclement strategy due to their military presence in Central Asia as well as, in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan as far as China is concerned, and Russia is concerned with a possible NATO expansion in Europe. ISIS and Western intelligence role in the Middle East ISIS and Western intelligence role in the Middle East by Annie Machon. ” … We can’t defeat terrorism by war! …” Machon is a former intelligence officer for MI5, the UK Security Service, who resigned in 1996 to blow the whistle on the spies’ incompetence and crimes. Drawing on her varied experiences, she is now a media pundit, author, journalist, political campaigner, and PR consultant. Futurist Portrait: Geci Karuri-Sebina Geci Karuri-Sebina Chair & Director: South African Node at The Millennium ProjectExecutive Manager: Programmes at SA Cities NetworkResearch Associate: Institute for Economic Research on Innovation (IERI) Geci’s interests are broadly in foresight and R&D spanning a range of public policy, development, and innovation issues. She is actively involved in the futures study field which she champions through her role as a founding member and director of the SA Node of the Millennium Project. She holds an MA in Urban Planning, and a Masters in Architecture and Urban Design from the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) and a PhD in development planning and innovation from the University of Witwatersrand.Geci Karuri-Sebina: … “Johannesburg hopes to be a vibrant, equitable, diverse, sustainable, resilient and adaptive city by 2040, a vision that will require rigorous engagement and monitoring over time, in unfolding contexts.…As a foresight enthusiast and practitioner, Johannesburg’s growth and development vision appeals greatly. Not because it will accurately predict or enable a specific outcome – “a world class African city”, “a city of our dreams”, “a city growing with you”, or “a city that works for me,” as various cities across South Africa have outlined in their catchy slogans – but because espousing a view to the future is a basic prerequisite of visionary action. It is a bold move, creating the potential to focus and capture the imaginations of the co-creators and constituents of that future. A basic question remains: What exactly is the future that we see for the entirety of our city? Before we begin talking of GDS 2050, perhaps we should attempt a shared peek from the mountaintop, to see if there is a believable and grounded promised land ahead, with clear signs behind, and many signposts in between.” Source: CityScapes Geci Karuri-Sebina, South Africa Node of the Millennium Project, Baku Futures Forum Agenda Watch The Future Now Show! Season Events 2014 / 2015 UKthe future of Collective IntelligenceJanuary 28, 2015Location: The Cube, Studio 5, 155 Commercial Street, London E1 6BJThis is a collaboration between The Cube and the Club of Amsterdam. UKthe future of Metro VitalityAprll 24, 2015Location: LondonThis is a collaboration between APF and the Club of Amsterdam Special Supporters printable version