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- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2009, Issue 121

Content GDP Fetishism Next Event Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community Development Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder… is Wisdom found in the Mind of the Receivers Recommended book New Personal Mobility Device Futurist Portrait: Vint Cerf Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.“The recession itself is accelerating the trend to digital as consumers are seeking better value in the content that they are willing to pay for. Once this has happened we do not believe that the consumer and by definition related advertising dollars will return from whence they had come. As such we do not believe this to be a cyclical recession but one that is going to result in fundamental structural change.” – Marcel Fenez, Global entertainment & media leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers In case you would like to hear more and also share your thoughts, visit our next event about the future of Advertising – October 29! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief GDP Fetishism By Prof. Joseph E. Stiglitz Joseph E. Stiglitz, University Professor at Columbia University and winner of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize, served as Chairman of the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social ProgressStriving to revive the world economy while simultaneously responding to the global climate crisis has raised a knotty question: are statistics giving us the right “signals” about what to do? In our performance-oriented world, measurement issues have taken on increased importance: what we measure affects what we do. If we have poor measures, what we strive to do (say, increase GDP) may actually contribute to a worsening of living standards. We may also be confronted with false choices, seeing trade-offs between output and environmental protection that don’t exist. By contrast, a better measure of economic performance might show that steps taken to improve the environment are good for the economy. Eighteen months ago, French President Nicolas Sarkozy established an international Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, owing to his dissatisfaction – and that of many others – with the current state of statistical information about the economy and society. On September 14, the Commission will issue its long-awaited report. The big question concerns whether GDP provides a good measure of living standards. In many cases, GDP statistics seem to suggest that the economy is doing far better than most citizens’ own perceptions. Moreover, the focus on GDP creates conflicts: political leaders are told to maximize it, but citizens also demand that attention be paid to enhancing security, reducing air, water, and noise pollution, and so forth – all of which might lower GDP growth. The fact that GDP may be a poor measure of well-being, or even of market activity, has, of course, long been recognized. But changes in society and the economy may have heightened the problems, at the same time that advances in economics and statistical techniques may have provided opportunities to improve our metrics. For example, while GDP is supposed to measure the value of output of goods and services, in one key sector – government – we typically have no way of doing it, so we often measure the output simply by the inputs. If government spends more – even if inefficiently – output goes up. In the last 60 y ears, the share of government output in GDP has increased from 21.4% to 38.6% in the US, from 27.6% to 52.7% in France, from 34.2% to 47.6% in the United Kingdom, and from 30.4% to 44.0% in Germany. So what was a relatively minor problem has now become a major one. Likewise, quality improvements – say, better cars rather than just more cars – account for much of the increase in GDP nowadays. But assessing quality improvements is difficult. Health care exemplifies this problem: much of medicine is publicly provided, and much of the advances are in quality. The same problems in making comparisons over time apply to comparisons across countries. The United States spends more on health care than any other country (both per capita and as a percentage of income), but gets poorer outcomes. Part of the difference between GDP per capita in the US and some European countries may thus be a result of the way we measure things. Another marked change in most societies is an increase in inequality. This means that there is increasing disparity between average (mean) income and the median income (that of the “typical” person, whose income lies in the middle of the distribution of all incomes). If a few bankers get much richer, average income can go up, even as most individuals’ incomes are declining. So GDP per capita statistics may not reflect what is happening to most citizens. We use market prices to value goods and services. But now, even those with the most faith in markets question reliance on market prices, as they argue against mark-to-market valuations. The pre-crisis profits of banks – one-third of all corporate profits – appear to have been a mirage. This realization casts a new light not only on our measures of performance, but also on the inferences we make. Before the crisis, when US growth (using standard GDP measures) seemed so much stronger than that of Europe, many Europeans argued that Europe should adopt US-style capitalism. Of course, anyone who wanted to could have seen American households’ growing indebtedness, which would have gone a long way toward correcting the false impression of success given by the GDP statistic. Recent methodological advances have enabled us to assess better what contributes to citizens’ sense of well-being, and to gather the data needed to make such assessments on a regular basis. These studies, for instance, verify and quantify what should be obvious: the loss of a job has a greater impact than can be accounted for just by the loss of income. They also demonstrate the importance of social connectedness. Any good measure of how well we are doing must also take account of sustainability. Just as a firm needs to measure the depreciation of its capital, so, too, our national accounts need to reflect the depletion of natural resources and the degradation of our environment. Statistical frameworks are intended to summarize what is going on in our complex society in a few easily interpretable numbers. It should have been obvious that one couldn’t reduce everything to a single number, GDP. The report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress will, one hopes, lead to a better understanding of the uses, and abuses, of that statistic. The report should also provide guidance for creating a broader set of indicators that more accurately capture both well-being and sustainability; and it should provide impetus for improving the ability of GDP and related statistics to assess the performance of the economy and society. Such reforms will help us direct our efforts (and resources) in ways that lead to improvement in both. Next Event the future of AdvertisingThursday, October 29, 2009, 2009 Location: Pakhuis de Zwijger, Expo Zaal, Piet Heinkade 179, first floor, 1019 HC Amsterdam with Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community Development by Hardy F. Schloer; SCG, Schloer Consulting Group, Spain, Advisory Board, Club of AmsterdamSpeech at the International Conference on China’s Urbanization and Community Development under Globalization Good Afternoon, ladies and gentlemenFirst of all, let me thank the organizers of this event that invited me here today, to give me the opportunity to speak to you.I am the last speaker for the day, and I am sure you are all a little tired by now, so therefore I will try to be quick, and hopefully I shall keep your interest focused on this presentation. I prepared on the subject of “Healthcare revolution for Community Development in China”, and indeed; this is a most fashionable topic these days, as now nearly every nation has began to recognize the importance of managing healthcare more efficiently and more economically. Clearly; healthcare is a basic need within society, just as clean water, pollution free air or the need of basic security. It is a none-negotiable provision that our community leaders should provide in an un-politicized fashion for the common good of all.Unlike common believe, it is healthcare that is the oldest profession on earth. In fact, in agent societies it was a duty of the spiritual leaders to practice healthcare. The druids of the Celtic villages 2000 years ago are an example that comes readily to mind. Even today the so-called medicine man of African natives is still a leftover of this agent practice. So, we can safely say, that healthcare is a central and important aspect of our lives for many millenniums. In the beginning of my presentation I will now talk about the current healthcare conditions in the west, and I will explain some important facts about them. Naturally, you expect relative information pertaining to China, so please bare with me, I will get to China in due time during my talk. The current practice of healthcare in the west offers just such perfect example of “how NOT to do it”, that I simply cannot resist using it also here today. Some say, that we must improve Healthcare substantially, so that the pace of improving healthcare matches that of advancements in, lets say modern biology. In past years technology and science have made significant progress in nearly all areas. Nevertheless, only little has translated into the day-to-day practice of building sustainable, safe and well managed healthcare communities around the globe. In fact, the situation in healthcare is so dire, especially in the west, that it threatens the very existence of commercial businesses, communities and even the economies of whole countries. For example, the US currently spends nearly 3 trillion dollars on healthcare with very little to be proud of, considering the enormous problems that exist in their healthcare system in spite of enormous spending; yet it still claims to be one of the best in terms of results….. So I guess one can only begin to wonder how bad it is elsewhere. Lets talk about some current examples:General Motors is spending currently more money on healthcare then it spends on steel; but making cars from steel is their primary business; not healthcare. Clearly, looking at such numbers, it is no wonder that this company got into great financial difficulties in past years.Additionally we can notice, in spite of the horrendous expenditures, that the healthcare, which General Motors employees are receiving, is consistent with that of any other healthcare community:It is ineffective, expensive, full of medical errors, plagued by corruption due to the strong influence of special interest groups, and most of all badly managed from bottom up, and also from top down. Naturally, we don’t have to look only west, to see fundamental problems in healthcare. South America, Asia, Africa are plagued equally or worse with just very few exceptions in between. One of the premier problems in today’s healthcare is, that we practice it exactly as we did some 50 or 100 years ago.For example, there is no centralized and coherent flow of patient data management that supports the entire healthcare management of any community such as, lets say, a company, a village, a city, a country or maybe even the human community of whole planet. Think about this:Every single time, that there is an interaction between a doctor and a patient, anywhere in the world, there is some extremely valuable knowledge created that should be preserved, compared and analyzed. This information is not just valuable for the patient, and important enough to be preserved for her or him; but more importantly, for the whole field of medicine, because we can statistically track important conditional correlations between drugs, illnesses, environmental and sociological conditions, genetics, and many other such vital factors. Yet, in spite of this empirical fact, doctors treat patients, and store the results of treatments in outdated record systems mostly on paper, or if electronic, then at places where they are inaccessible by the general healthcare process; and often on incompatible standards, and worse of all, never re-analyzed after the patient has left the office. And why should he? The case is closed, the bill is paid; and after all….. the patient is in our modern healthcare process simply just a profit-center! Nothing more! Nothing less! Beyond the problems this process creates for the individual patient, this is also the single most amazing case of wasted knowledge imaginable. Envision, what all this information could produce in terms of identifying epidemics, drug deficiencies; or on a more complex scenario, the hidden combinations of drug and health conditions that escalate into new illnesses undetected, just because we don’t have coherent and broadly machine analyzed access to the collective information of all healthcare records.But there are other additional problems with current systems in ambulant applications! Preventable errors and inconsistent quality of care are some of the main areas of concern in how we practice medicine in our communities. A recent 2008 “Institute of Medicine” report states the following:“Between 44.000 and 98.000 Americans die each year from medical errors. At least 90% of these are preventable. Many more die or have permanent disability because of inappropriate treatments, mistreatments, or missed treatments in ambulant settings.” “More people die each year in the United States alone from medical errors than from highway accidents, breast cancer or AIDS combined.” If this is not shocking to you then lets try this:In 2007 a multinational study was performed in 27 countries to evaluate the frequency and the possible causes of medical errors.Altogether just 113 intensive care units with a total of 1328 patients. The care units self-reported for one specific single day the frequency and the probable cause of the errors committed.Remember! We are talking her about a very small sample on one single day! The results are simply shocking:A total of 861 errors occurred to 1.328 patients! 19% of these cases were exposed to multiple errors. This means, that 191 patients, that is 14%, experienced more then one error! 14 patients who experienced errors died or were permanently handicapped as a result. The reported reasons for these errors lay clearly in the insufficient communication and information structure in today’s healthcare systems. It is clear, there is a major opportunity here to bring about change, and this finally leads me to the subject of Healthcare as Community Development opportunity in China. We begin by looking carefully at 2 interesting factors:First of all, lets talk about the development of data processing technology and its current levels of readiness:Today we have powerful networks, computer systems and databases that are capable to handle in real time the complete health care history of every human living on this planet… and still would not show any signs of computational overload. We could without any problems give every patient and every health practitioner on this planet a convenient and secure web interface that would allow everybody to enter and store every single health record update in a central data processing system, without compromising any privacy issues. To the contrary, such system would enforce privacy better then anything we got today.Such systems and the their current and emerging network technologies could be configured powerful enough to let every doctor practicing on this planet; every pharmacist; every medical researcher use this system in real time; in parallel, and still, such system would easily manage to real-time process all data, store every record, and background-analyze all records every 24 hours against all new medical knowledge gained in every previous 24-hour period. We could easily automate all clinical research in the view of billions of doctor-patient interaction records, and very quickly find out, what treatment would work, under what conditions; however complex; and what would not! We could build such system completely patient-centered and give the patient the right and responsibility to check and update his own record whenever needed, become a active and responsible part in his or her healthcare process, rather then just be an uninformed spectator of current systems. When we talk to visionary healthcare practitioners all over the world and present them with this idea, they seem to all agree: this is the ONLY way, how we can solve the cost and quality problems in modern healthcare. Without exception; all agree! So; why are we not using it? Well, this leads me to my second point:Nearly all countries in this world manage community development as a decentralized task. In fact it became a real trend in the 1980s under Ronald Regan in the US to abandon all centralized governmental procedures and let communities figure out themselves, how to solve the problems of such community development. Nearly all bought into this analogy, and today most countries suffer extensively from those effects…..except one: CHINA China has more then 1000 years of solid experience in how to develop communities from a completely centralized perspective.At no other time in history could this pay more dividends then now, when finally modern communication technologies will allow China to implement efficient and centralized healthcare systems similar to those described just a moment ago. China will be able to do this natively, because its system is ready for it; for 1000 years.And in such way, China will be able to take fully advantage of globalized knowledge, and reuse it through centralized processing and communication systems in real-time, to thrive community development, whereby every community can take advantage of new knowledge developed in any other community, even communities outside of China, in a intercultural and interdisciplinary way.Not only would this usher in a true revolution in healthcare for China, but moreover, it would give China the tools today to leapfrog the entire global community in healthcare, setting so a new standard and leadership in this area. What are the chances, that such revolution could take place here in China in the near future? They are very high! All conditions are present in this moment. No country has adapted in the last 2 or 3 decades to global technological developments as radically and as uncompromising as China. If you have missed this fact about China, you have not been looking very carefully. If the potential of the healthcare revolution will be realized by China, it will become a most successful prove of concept, in how to use the power of technology within the framework of a centralized framework to foster high-quality community development in most efficient manner. There is no doubt in my mind, that a Chinese technology driven centralized community development strategy, if realized vigorously, will result in global leadership in many areas in the shortest time, and set so new global standards. The magic formula is:Centralization + Technology = Winning StrategyThe question is: will the rest of the world adapt?As we all well know from the laws of evolution:It is not the strongest that survives…. It is the one that is most adaptable to change!Time will tell! Thank you, and good evening! See also our blog Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com October 6: … Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the ReceiverSeptember 21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community DevelopmentAugust 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media pastApril 5: Visions for a Sustainable FutureFebruary 10: How China, A Rising World Power Deals with the Current Crisis and Challenges Facing the World News about the Future Power Assisted Suitcase Live luggage, power assisted luxury travel suitcase, first class business & luxury holiday travel, luggage for luxury cruise and train travel. Multi bag design allowing owner to check in whole bag or the flexibility to remove two pieces and treat as hand luggage. 4Anti-gravity handle putting 85% of the weight over the wheels4Flat motor technology built into the wheels to assist when going up gradients, curbs, steps4Live Locator ID – a unique ID to help locate your suitcase in the event of loss4TSA recognised combination locks4Unique umbrella storage (umbrella included)4100% recyclable luggage4Soft ballistic nylon case with removable lap top and weekend luggage bags Nike Trash Talk This performance basketball shoe is made from manufacturing waste. It incorporates leftover materials – leather and synthetic leather, foam and rubber – into new shoes without sacrificing any of the performance aspects that come from shoes made from virgin materials. “The Trash Talk shoe is the hero of Nike’s hyper-progressive and innovative sustainability program. High concept, aesthetics and performance–in combination with a smart and comprehensive eco-manufacturing methodology–make this shoe the holy grail of conscious consumption. Karmic debt still outstanding, but this is a huge down payment.” – Valerie Casey, IDSA Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the Receivers by Leif Thomas Olsen, Associate Professor, International Relations, Rushmore University Many futurists and thinkers are today engaged in the revival of the concept of Wisdom. For generations, this concept has been second to more scientific exploits, where evidence rather than reflection is at the core. Although Wisdom still is, if and when inquired, typically ranked as the highest level of knowledge, it at the same time is – due to the vagueness associated with it – often overlooked when more important decisions are to be made. Here will – at least in the West – facts and evidence be considered the only reliable source of guidance. Since the strength of Wisdom is often argued in terms of quotes of statements made throughout history of man, that are considered ‘universal’ in time as well as in place, it could be worth looking at Wisdom from a cultural horizon. What will happen to the concept of Wisdom if/when it is fully exposed to cultural ‘globalization’? Just as the concept of Beauty has suffered immensely – when seen from a multicultural horizon – from the heavy influx of sponsored beauty-contests and promoted design-trends that by default reduce the chances for any local preferences to at all survive, will the concept of Wisdom run a similar risk of being culturally streamlined into hard-hitting one-liners, once our ‘know-all’ international media joins the trend. To explain my concern, and point to a way to protect Wisdom as the valuable source of inspiration it is, I need to argue both in favor of Wisdom and in favor of Culture. Wisdom must – because of its interactive nature – be seen from two angles. The first one is the process of establishing it; the second one the process of absorbing it. The person establishing it is indeed the wise person, i.e. the source of Wisdom (below re-ferred to as the message-sender). But a wise statement is not wise enough if it cannot be absorbed by those receiving it. If the one reading or hearing the quote (below refer-red to as the message-receiver) cannot make proper sense of it, the Wisdom is hidden, and therefore either neutral to the world or, in worst case, counter-productive (if it is misunderstood, that is). Although I do share the view that Wisdom as a concept is ‘global’, any particular piece of Wisdom is, at best, only ‘global to a certain degree’. Not even Wisdom can actually become altogether global, since it is based on induction (inductive reasoning), which – although this allows far greater flexibility than does deductive reasoning, both in its creation (i.e. for the message-sender) and in its application (i.e. for the message receiver) – means that ‘interpretation’ becomes a very important part of Wisdom, just as is the case with anything of ‘interactive’ nature. No doubt is Wisdom, because of its inductive base, very different from more specific ‘claims’ – typically based on deduction – which, even if they are true, still suffer from the fact that their truth-factors boil down to very specific premises, i.e. if these premises are in place, the claims are true, but if they are not, the claims are false. As far as the concept of ‘global’ goes, my concern is that it is only when all related premises actually are accepted as valid that anything at all can become truly ‘global’. Everything else can only, at best, become ‘global to a certain degree’. However, even in favorable cases, the majority (which in a worst case scenario will translate as ‘stronger’) will enforce the ‘global’ aspect of whatever is at stake, at the expense of the minority (which in these worst case scenarios will translate as ‘weaker’). As one may understand from this, I do not see ‘global’ as anything we need to strive for, since the abuse of this term has been immense, often allowing the stronger to oppress the weaker in the name of ‘equal opportunity’ – an opportunity that no matter its basic equality will always depend on available resources. I rather think ‘glocal’ is the way forward, where local conditions and local interpretations are encouraged. In my mind this means that although it may be hard to guess when or where any given ‘wise’ statement was first minted – in that respect making them ‘universal’ – they will still induce different behavior among those who try to apply the Wisdom the statement expresses. Such differences in application are typically instructed by cultural patterns. This should be encouraged rather than discouraged, or we risk ending up in an ethno-centric world where dominant cultures steamroll everything standing in its way. Let me come back to the ‘premise’ component, and how it comes into play. Let us assume that all human beings respond in accordance with the following formula for logical behavior: Observation + Premise = Conclusion (see Olsen: A Book About Culture). The Wisdom statement can then be said to be a Conclusion made by the message-sender (i.e. the source of Wisdom), as well as an ‘Observation’ made by the message receiver (i.e. the person trying to apply the Wisdom). When the latter combines this Observation with any chosen Premises, he/she will draw Conclusions of some sort (consciously or unconsciously). This means that the chosen Premises will decide how the Wisdom is interpreted, meaning we actually ‘apply’ the same Wisdom differently in different cultures. Let me stress that by ‘cultural differences’ I actually refer to the fact that different cultures always have different ‘premises’ in place. This is actually what constitutes cultural differences in the first place. These premises affect the message receiver greatly, and since this is mostly unconsciously, the receiver typically does not even realizes that s/he applies the Wisdom in a different way than what someone with a different cultural origin would do. We westerners often try to take on non-western wisdom, but we tend to interpret it and apply it in quite different ways than do non-westerners. By ‘different’ I do not intend ‘wrong’ – but simply ‘different’. It is important to point out that I by “culture” refer to a wide range of ‘cultures’ – not only national or social ones. Cultures can also be professional or generational, they can be driven by gender, religion, interests, education or lineage, or by any other trait that people value. Cultural dominance can hence be of a wide range of types. Let’s take e.g. women and ‘non-westerners’, just to demonstrate. These groups are often forced to emulate male and/or western cultural behavior if they wish to reach the top in any of those environ-ments where male / western culture dominates – which for that matter happens to be just about everywhere where money is an issue of concern. If they do not take on the dominant culture’s approach, their efforts will be less successful (although exceptions of course do exist). That also includes the dominant culture’s way of interpreting and applying certain Wisdom. Take for example Diane Ackerman’s quote (by some listed among ‘wise statements’): “I don’t want to get to the end of my life and find that I have just lived the length of it. I want to have lived the width of it as well.” To some, this quote could suggest that the best advice to a Laotian woman who wants a slice of the global pie would be to act as what the sport-shoemaker Nike suggests: Just do it! But how many Laotian women would interpret this Wisdom like that? ‘Width’ could alternatively represent a spiritual dimension, which – if that was the interpretation made – would not take her any closer to the slice in question. Another example could be Chinese philosopher Chuang-tsu’s saying: “Live so you are at ease, in harmony with the world, and full of joy.” The way in which we define ‘the world’ is here critical for how we apply this Wisdom. Is ‘the world’ the society we live in and the friends we already have, which means we can disregard those parts of the world we have never encountered, or is ‘the world’ everything we or our fellow humans may encounter in life – including strangers, non-believers, divine beings and ecological systems? Just like so many others I consider Wisdom an underutilized force, one that should be given a far greater role in society. However, I also consider cultural differences both a strength and advantage, why I see no reason to downplay or suppress them by making efforts to eliminate Wisdom’s cultural associations in favor of its universalism. Instead I believe there are some core messages running through all these expressions of Wisdom. These could be entangled and put in context, using a truly ‘multicultural’ approach (considering the wide range of different types of cultures indicated above). These core messages need to be elevated to human fundamentals, to which different societies could link different examples and guidelines, accommodating its prevailing culture or cultures. In a process like this, the fundamentals that all societies can agree to would serve as common denominators, while the culturally accepted references that the respective societies can positively relate to can serve as more direct guidelines for social development. If we all had the same culture there would be no rainbow, just a monotonous light of blue, yellow or red. We must allow Wisdom to retain its truly glocal sentiment, or it will run the risk of meeting the same fate as Beauty – to be hijacked by media in its never-ending hunt for simplifications and glamour. … and yet I haven’t even touched upon another global problem: “Lost in translation”! In October, 2009 See also our blog Recommended Book What Would Google Do?by Heather Rogers Jarvis, columnist and blogger about media, presents his ideas for surviving and prospering in the Internet age, with its new set of rules for emerging technologies as well as industries such as retail, manufacturing, and service. We learn that customers are now in charge, people anywhere can find each other and join forces to support a company’s efforts or oppose them, life and business are more public, conversation has replaced marketing, and openness is the key to success. Jarvis’ other laws include being a platform (help users create products, businesses, communities, and networks of their own); hand over control to anyone; middlemen are doomed; and your worst customer is your best friend, and your best customer is your partner. Jarvis offers thought-provoking observations and valuable examples for individuals and businesses seeking to fully participate in our Internet culture and maximize the opportunities it offers. It is unclear what role Google played, if any, in the preparation of this book, which provides excellent advertising for the company. — Mary Whaley New Personal Mobility Device Honda’s U3-X Pursuing the concept of “harmony with people” Honda has developed a new personal mobility technology and unveiled U3-X, a compact experimental device that fits comfortably between the rider’s legs, to provide free movement in all directions just as in human walking – forward, backward, side-to-side, and diagonally. Honda will continue research and development of the device including experiments in a real-world environment to verify the practicality of the device. This new personal mobility device makes it possible to adjust speed and move, turn and stop in all directions when the rider leans the upper body to shift body weight. This was achieved through application of advanced technologies including Honda’s balance control technology, which was developed through the robotics research of ASIMO, Honda’s bipedal humanoid robot, and the world’s first* omni-directional driving wheel system (Honda Omni Traction Drive System, or HOT Drive System), which enables movement in all directions, including not only forward and backward, but also directly to the right and left and diagonally. In addition, this compact size and one-wheel-drive personal mobility device was designed to be friendly to the user and people around it by making it easier for the rider to reach the ground from the footrest and placing the rider on roughly the same eye level as other people or pedestrians. Key features of U3-X <Free movement just as in human walking> 1.Device control featuring application of balance control technology cultivated through ASIMO research:The incline sensor detects the incline of the device based on the weight shift of the rider and determines the rider’s intention in terms of the direction and speed. Based on the data, precise control is applied to return the device to an upright position, which achieves smooth and agile movements and simple operation by weight shift only. 2.HOT Drive System (Omni-directional driving wheel system):Honda developed the world’s first wheel structure which enables movement in all directions including forward, backward, side-to-side and diagonally. Multiple small-diameter motor-controlled wheels were connected in-line to form one large-diameter wheel. By moving the large-diameter wheel, the device moves forward and backward, and by moving small-diameter wheels, the device moves side-to-side. By combining these movements the device moves diagonally. <Compact size which fit between the user’s legs> 3.Compact and innovative package:The combination of the balance control technology and the HOT Drive System enabled the one-wheel style compact and innovative package of the device. In addition, the device adopts a light-weight monocoque body in which the foldable seat, footrests and body cover that also function as the frame are stored in the body of the device, achieving highly portable convenience. Futurist Portrait: Vint Cerf Vinton Gray “Vint” Cerf is an American computer scientist who is the person most often called ‘the father of the Internet’.” His contributions have been recognized repeatedly, with honorary degrees and awards that include the National Medal of Technology, the Turing Award, and the Presidential Medal of Freedom. In the early days, Cerf was a DOD DARPA program manager funding various groups to develop TCP/IP technology. When the Internet began to transition to a commercial opportunity, Cerf moved to MCI where he was instrumental in the development of the first commercial email system (MCI Mail) connected to the Internet. Vinton Cerf was instrumental in the funding and formation of ICANN from the start. Cerf went to the same high school as Jon Postel and Steve Crocker. Cerf waited in the wings for a year before he stepped forward to join the ICANN Board. Eventually he became the Chairman of ICANN. Cerf has worked for Google as its Vice President and Chief Internet Evangelist since September 2005. In this function he has become well known for his predictions on how technology will affect future society, encompassing such areas as artificial intelligence, environmentalism, the advent of IPv6 and the transformation of the television industry and its delivery model. Some quotes: “The Internet is based on a layered, end-to-end model that allows people at each level of the network to innovate free of any central control. By placing intelligence at the edges rather than control in the middle of the network, the Internet has created a platform for innovation.” “The remarkable social impact and economic success of the Internet is in many ways directly attributable to the architectural characteristics that were part of its design. The Internet was designed with no gatekeepers over new content or services.” “I realized it had taken 20 years for the Internet to take off: from 1973 to 1993,” Cerf says. “So I wondered what I should be doing to prepare for our needs in the future. An interplanetary backbone was the answer.” Agenda Our Season Program 2009 / 2010: October 2918:30-21:15   the future of AdvertisingLocation: De Zwijger, Expo Zaal, 1st floor, Piet Heinkade 179, 1019 HC Amsterdam November 1918:30-21:15   the future of WasteLocation: WTC, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower, 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam February 1118:30-21:15   the future of BiosensingLocation: De Waag, Amsterdam March 2518:30-21:15   the future of SportsLocation: Amsterdam April 2918:30-21:15   the future of MusicLocation: Amsterdam June 318:30-21:15   the future of CERNLocation: Amsterdam  

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, November 2009, Issue 122

Content ‘Designers don’t be shy!’ Next Event Bed of the Future Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Institute for Water Education Recommended book New Kabul City Futurist Portrait: Nick Bostrom Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.What is ‘waste’? Waste is the result of production and consumption of material goods. Only a short while ago, waste was simply thrown away or burned. In most economic theories, the absorption capacity of ‘the environment’ is deemed to be infinite. With 6.5 billion people on the planet earth, we are confronted by the fact that this assumption is blatantly incorrect. As a result, we have no other choice than to rethink ‘waste’ and treat it as a new type of resource. However, can everything be re-used? Is it possble to just treat waste as a resource? What do we need to do, to do so effectively? If it were simple, wouldn’t we have done so longe before? During this event, some examples of effective and promising approaches to waste-management are presented. Join our next event – share your thoughtsNovember 19the future of Waste Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief ‘Designers don’t be shy!’ By Diana den HeldStrategic advisor for Michael Braungart (Cradle to Cradle) www.gevleugeldewoorden.nlDiana is a speaker at the future of Waste Michael Braungart: designers are way too modest when it comes to cradle to cradleTogether with Bill McDonough, Michael Braungart wrote the book Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things. Increasingly more organisations are realising that they can benefit from Cradle to Cradle (C2C) ecologically as well as financially. But what is the role of C2C in the current economic crisis? And what can designers do to help? Diana den Held sits down with Michael Braungart for a candid interview. “In a crisis, besides hoping for change, there is always much fear and uncertainty. People quickly fall back on some medieval behaviour. And then, they aren’t creative, funny or innovative. They just keep doing what they were doing before the crisis.Only when you see that going down the same road is not to your advantage do you go looking for solutions, and only then can you overcome your fear. I’m not trying to say that this will inevitably lead to innovation, but it has happened before,” explains Michael Braungart. With the implementation of Cradle to Cradle, have you already seen changes due to the crisis?“We have mostly noticed a positive movement. Many companies and organisations now see how important it is to make clients loyal by collaborating with them and addressing their needs. At Desso, a Dutch carpet manufacturer that has made the switch to Cradle to Cradle, we can see that they’ve increased their profits in a declining market.” And that can’t just be consumers being environmentally conscious all of a sudden in such times…“No, but they are more aware of quality. As a consumer you are more careful with spending and actually nobody wants a carpet that stinks and is toxic for you and your environment. So much is going wrong now that people want to make the right choices. As a manufacturer you can bring about change.” Are you saying that the financial crisis can bring out the best in us?“Possibly. There is a good reason to be afraid of what is happening now. But if you realise that fear paralyses you and delays the possibilities of change, then you know you have to take action.It is on this point that architects, designers and developers should see the crisis as an opportunity. Of course, sometimes you can’t move as fast as you’d like, but you can pick up the pace by collaborating. Creativity and collaboration take over the main role from capital. Even in the traditionally conservative chemical industry Cradle to Cradle is now high up on the agenda.” What role can designers play in this turnaround?“Although designers are often seen as having an enormous ego, I think they are much too shy when it comes to the environment and raw materials. They arrange a collection of toxic materials a little differently and call that design. It’s time to show some ambition. At the moment, we need designers who can make good things, who can get other people organised and change processes, people who want to be a part of it, and not just ‘make things a little nicer’.” Young designers often make their first designs by hand, as a prototype. But then, their idea is successful and mass production is just around the corner. They could easily fall into the ‘old’ processes of the big production companies. What do you recommend?“Making that first design is always a great phase. But then, you have a relationship with your design and get a deeper connection, which is vital. Only then can you have a romantic affair with a first product design and move on to a serious relationship. Here as well there is a question of ambition. Do you want to continue to act like a teenager where you pick something up and drop it quickly or do you want to grow up? I think designers are happier when they don’t just take part in a small part of the process.” “HISTORY SHOWS THAT REAL INNOVATION ALWAYS CAME FROM TEAMS, NOT FROM INDIVIDUALS.” – Michael Braungart Does the design world need a different attitude?“Today there is major pressure on designers – much is expected from them. They want to be artists. They want to be creative. They have to be entrepreneurs, managers and be able to deal with clients. And then there is also their ego – enough factors to make anybody doubt themselves.This is why I think we need a change in studies. We need different types of designers. For example, communication design is already a separate discipline, but more qualifications are needed, such as ‘material flow’ designers who can form a team with the artists, design managers, etc. A more diverse group is needed. Competing, as a designer, on way too many different levels basically generates mediocrity.There can’t be just one hero that everyone worships. Then you get a person who tries to overcompensate for all their shortcomings. Focus on your strengths, discover your shortcomings and find people who can help you with them.” Many young designers feel that they lack knowledge to work with Cradle to Cradle. You often hear questions, such as “I know that the right materials are there, but where can I find them? How should I work with biologically degradable ‘plastic’?”, etc. What do you recommend to them?“When people ask these kinds of questions, express the desire to holistically make good design, they already have 50% of what they need. I can’t emphasise often enough that they don’t have to do everything themselves. History shows that real innovation always came from teams, not from individuals. You sometimes saw an individual in the foreground, but there always was a team standing behind them. This mechanism also holds true now: on your own at a certain point you’re only working on changing existing things.For designers already more into the design stage, much more C2C material knowledge can be found in the database at Material Connexion in a.o. Milan. But again, don’t take types of materials as a starting point in your concept phase, as it hinders your thinking. What is not available now will be there in a few years, especially if you ask as a designer.” Is that the top tip for designers who want to design in a more Cradle to Cradle way?“Yes. Start by being more arrogant and ask questions about the stuff you’re working with. Just say, “I don’t want to use that material” and get a movement going. For example, if you look at brands such as Louis Vuitton, Dolce & Gabbana and Armani, what comes out of the plant and goes into the shops is just hazardous waste.Almost every famous design brand is due for some serious innovation. Designers have influence there. Ask for materials that you can wear on your body that are suitable for people. Design products for a house or workplace where the indoor air is actually healthy. As a designer, you are a user of materials developed by others. Put them to work.” But how do designers obtain alternative materials?“Why would you let your designs be influenced by the availability of a certain type of material? It is a form of expression of design, not the key. State your wishes and requirements with your design. Point out the shortcomings – it doesn’t need to be 100% perfect. By wanting to have it perfect the first time around you’re just blocking and delaying yourself. As long as you mention when and where you want to introduce changes you can have a look at it together with others. Take intermediate steps, but don’t compromise your vision.” OK. Designers can influence the development of the right materials. But what can they do themselves now concretely also considering the crisis?“As a designer you don’t just shape things, you can also influence the material flow. That doesn’t mean that everything has to go back into the biosphere per se. You can also use materials that aren’t degradable as long as they can go back into the technosphere. This means making your design so that it can be taken apart.For example, building a television set without copper is impossible nowadays, but building a television set that’s easy to get the copper out of can be done. Copper is rarer than oil, which you really don’t want to lose in a garbage dump. You want to be able to get it back to the plant and get it out of the device as easily as possible. To do so you need a good design. It isn’t that difficult to calculate how you can profit from that.” Next Event the future of WasteThursday, November 19, 2009Location: WTC, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam and exhibition Bed of the Future Somnus-Neu is an evolution of the idea of “technology convergence” and high design, bringing together into one space, comfort, design, connectivity, audio, video, lighting and experience.We know that 30% of our lives are spent in bed, yet for thousands of years the bed itself has remained virtually unchanged while all around us advances of every kind have been made, we can now safely say that through innovation and design the bed has arrived for the times in which we live.A soft hue emanates from the underside of Somnus-Neu your bedroom lit from the “night-light” zone, one of three distinct lighting zones built in, all of which are highly efficient and fully programmable LED lights. With 16 million possible color combinations, everyone can create their own unique shade, as mood lighting, underside lighting or reading light. Research has shown that color and light add are valuable components to the way we feel. Now there’s no excuse not to feel good.Everyone these days knows that music and sound can enhance and create our environment. Your music, Your media, Your environment. The heart of Somnus-Neu audio is a Class D digital amplifier, which is highly energy efficient and produces less waste through heat than a typical Class A/B amplifier. Speakers fixed in 5 different points within the space create a listening experience controlled entirely by you. From soft waves rolling in as you embrace sleep, to hard hitting rock’n’roll, plug in your MP3 player, store your own music or stream it in from the outside. We’re connected through an ever growing internet community, the world at our fingertips, we at Yoo-Pod Ltd love being connected, we figured you might too. So we provided two touch-screens, one for you and one for your partner, recessed into the sides of Somnus-Neu. Simply raise the screens from their hidden position, bring the arm around to place it in your perfect position and connect to the world.The real VIP movie going experience is right here. A giant movie screen lives hidden in the top end of Somnus-Neu, lower it into position to take advantage of the “best seat in the house” – Yours. We incorporated a High Def video projector and brought the theater right to you. Hit the button, lower the screen, encapsulate the space with the automatic privacy curtains and experience the real thing.Every detail in Somnus-Neu is considered, the upholstery the hand-crafted wooden bed head, the 100% recycled composites that create the form and shape, nothing has been overlooked. We understand also that people are individuals and as such have allowed for certain customization within the design. Different wood selections and upholstery are possible. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com October 6: … Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the ReceiverSeptember 21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community DevelopmentAugust 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media pastApril 5: Visions for a Sustainable FutureFebruary 10: How China, A Rising World Power Deals with the Current Crisis and Challenges Facing the World News about the Future Scent Design Online Scent Design is the first fully functional online custom fragrance blending store. Scent Design provides you with the unique experience of creating your own personal fragrance oil by choosing which premium scented oils to mix. Choose from 50 base fragrances to make a truly one of a kind personal fragrance. Mind-Controlled Wheelchair The BSI-TOYOTA Collaboration Center has succeeded in developing a system which utilizes one of the fastest technologies in the world, controlling a wheelchair using brain waves in as little as 125 milliseconds (one millisecond, or ms, is equal to 1/1000 seconds). Recently technological developments in the area of brain machine interface (BMI) have received much attention. Such systems allow elderly or handicapped people to interact with the world through signals from their brains, without having to give voice commands. BTCC’s new system fuses RIKEN’s blind signal separation and space-time-frequency filtering technology to allow brain-wave analysis in as little as 125 ms, as compared to several seconds required by conventional methods. Brain-wave analysis results are displayed on a panel so quickly that drivers do not sense any delay. The system has the capacity to adjust itself to the characteristics of each individual driver, and thereby is able to improve the efficiency with which it senses the driver’s commands. Thus the driver is able to get the system to learn his/her commands (forward/right/left) quickly and efficiently. The new system has succeeded in having drivers correctly give commands to their wheelchairs. An accuracy rate of 95% was achieved, one of the highest in the world. Institute for Water Education The UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education is an international institute for water education that was established in 2003. UNESCO-IHE continues the work that was started in 1957 when IHE first offered a postgraduate diploma course in hydraulic engineering to practicing professionals from developing countries. Some projects: SWITCH: Sustainable Water Management Improves Tomorrow’s Cities’ Health The SWITCH Integrated Project aims at the development, application and demonstration of a range of tested scientific, technological and socio-economic solutions and approaches that contribute to the achievement of sustainable and effective urban water management (UWM) schemes in ‘The City of the future’ (30-50 years from now). The approach is to develop efficient and interactive urban water systems and services (city level) in the context of the city’s geographical and ecological setting (river basin level), which are robust, flexible and adjustable to a range of global change pressures (global level). Cities around the world are facing a range of dynamic global and regional pressures, including rapid urbanisation and urban sprawl due to population growth, industrialisation, and climate variability and change. They are facing difficulty in efficiently and transparently managing ever scarcer water resources, delivering water and sanitation services, and disposing of wastewater, while minimizing negative impacts on the downstream environment and on the urban populations’ quality of life including environmental, health, social and economic aspects. The ecological ‘footprints’ of cities are ever growing through over-exploitation of available resources (land, water, energy, food, building materials, energy, finance) for their populations whilst producing massive streams of waste (solid, gaseous, liquid) in return, contaminating soil, air and water. In order to face these challenges, SWITCH is facilitating a paradigm shift in urban water management by converting from ad-hoc actions into acoherent and consolidated approach. The overal goal of the SWITCH project is to catalyse change towards more sustainable urban water management in the “City of the Future”. Approach and ActivitiesThe project is implemented by different combinations of the consortium partners, along the lines of various complementary and interactive themes. Action research address problems through innovation based upon involvement of users. Learning alliances to link up stakeholders to interact productively and to create win-win solutions along the water chain; Multiple-way learning European cities learn from each other and from developing countries, and vice versa. Multiple-level or integrated approach to consider the urban water system, and its components, (city level) in relation to its impacts on, and dependency on, the natural environment in the river basin (river basin level), and in relation to Global Change pressures (global level). Linking upwith key experts on urban water from Europe and developing countries, and pooling scientific, technological and financial resources from partners and in the demonstration cities through an integrated, multi-disciplinary research effort. EXACT: Small-scale Water Treatment Facilities for Domestic Use and Artificial Recharge with Surface Water The project carries out pilot studies in the fields of water treatment and artificial recharge which, after a successful implementation during pilot phase, will be applied on a wider scale in the region. Besides the pilot studies a capacity building programme is carried out to increase the knowledge of the partner institutes on water-related issues. Within the EXACT project special attention is given to dissemination of knowledge and experiences to a broader public. So far the EXACT project has, amongst others, successfully implemented: Identification and setting-up of 3 pilot study sites for small-scale treatment facilities for domestic use; Identification and setting-up of 2 pilot study sites for artificial recharge of surface water; Joint research activities on water treatment and artificial recharge of surface water; Training course on Groundwater modeling; The project forms part of the water-related activities that are carried out in the frame of the Middle East Multilateral Working Group on Water Resources, which was established in 1995 as part of the Middle East Peace Process.The activities are coordinated by the Executive Action Team (EXACT), which includes the Israeli, Jordanian and Palestinian Core parties as well as several donor countries. The Netherlands participates since 2002 with the project with the activities described above. In 2006 the donor approved the extension of the project until April 2010. Approach and ActivitiesThe EXACT project is based on applied research and demonstration activities carried out at pilot sites in the region. The following pilot sites were selected by the consortium: For water treatment facilities: A water well for domestic use in Baq’a, Jordan, contaminated with high iron concentration; The Al Qilt spring, supplying water to the Aqbat Jabr Refugee Camp near Jericho, West Bank, Israel, and biological contaminated; Well Holon 8, located in the industrial area near Tel Aviv, Israel, and contaminated with heavy metals For artificial recharge of surface water: Wadi Madoneh, a small catchment some 20 km east of Amman, Jordan; Wadi Far’a, a basin on the West Bank, east of Nablus, Palestine.The problems tackled in the fields of water treatment and artificial recharge, are of interest to all stakeholders in the region. Therefore, dissemination of the research results forms an important aspect of the project and several scientific workshops will be organized for professionals involved in the research as well as stakeholders from outside the consortium. Other project activities include amongst others the supervision of local MSc research, the organization of a short course on groundwater modeling and training of technicians. Within the EXACT project the partners have established a long-term working relation in which they collaborate and govern the project. Regular project meetings and workshops foster the partnership and staff members of the institutes work closely together on the implementation of the various project activities. Recommended Book Gone Tomorrow: The Hidden Life of Garbageby Heather Rogers*Starred Review* America leads the world in garbage, and that is nothing to be proud of. A clear-thinking and peppery writer, Rogers presents a galvanizing expose of how we became the planet’s trash monsters. Americans were ingeniously thrifty until industrialization ushered in consumer culture and the age of disposable goods and built-in obsolescence. But once the public was exhorted to buy stuff whether they needed it or not–and Rogers provides many eye-opening examples of corporate strategies and propaganda–new forms of garbage began to pile up and break down into toxic substances. Rogers details everything that is wrong with today’s wasteful packaging, bogus recycling, and flawed landfills and incinerators. Here, too, is the inside story of the plastic revolution and the irresponsibly wasteful beverage market, the Mafia’s involvement in commercial waste, and the illegal overseas shipping of garbage, especially toxic e-waste–trashed computers and cell phones. Rogers exhibits black-belt precision in her assault on American corporations that succeed in “greenwashing” the public while remaining “hell-bent on ever-expanding production no matter what the ecological toll.” Set this beside Elizabeth Royte’s Garbage Land (2005), and contemplate Rogers’ dictum: garbage “never really goes away.” – Donna Seaman New Kabul City Existing Kabul Dehsabz City with its commercial agricultural Barikab area, planned for three million inhabitants, completion within 30 years on a 500 sqkm area, located on the north of existing Kabul and made for current and future generations. The perspective of the project is deeply integrated into the existing topography, cultural identity, agricultural life and national priorities of Afghanistan. This provides an excellent opportunity to involve the entire country in a profound social and economic change. It will thus present a confident Afghani face to the world. Kabul is Rising Once More Perched on the roof of the world, at the junction of ancient trade routes and the boundaries of empires, Kabul endures. Amid the remains of conflict children still fly their kites in the winter sky, Chapandaz risk all for glory on the buzkashi field, and vendors sell everything from shoes to hot bolani in the markets that spring up daily on every corner. Streets throng with activity and products from every corner of Afghanistan and the surrounding regions of Central Asia, South Asia, Middle East and Far East fill the market stalls. Carpets, gems, pottery, intricately carved wood, pashmina, raisins and all manner of manufactured goods are for sale in shops that not very long ago lay empty and derelict. As if in defiance of its history, the existing Capital is rising once more as a place of influence and opportunity and for all. Need for a New City Originally capable of accommodating less than half a million inhabitants, Kabul Metropolitan Area now supports a population of over four million in a rapidly expanding economy. Together with improving economic opportunities, this sharp increase in population density brings with it the associated problems of inadequate infrastructure, increasing pollution, and growing unemployment. Afghans are determined to shake off the burdens of the past and embrace a promising future; one in which Afghan enterprises based in Kabul compete on the world stage; but they need a place to do it. While existing Kabul City served the needs of the past, it does not provide for the needs of a sustainable future. A Beacon of Hope on the Roof of the World At this stage, Dehsabz is an exciting new city conceptual master plan, designed to become the engine of Afghanistan’s future. Integrating the latest sustainable technologies with traditional building methods and craft work, Dehsabz will be the world’s first eco-neutral capital city. Powered by water, wind and solar energy, Dehsabz will eventually become the heart of the new Afghan economy. As part of Dehsabz project, Barikab, an area located immediately north,will become a commercial agricultural zone that will create grow food and create employment for the future inhabitants of the Kabul and introduce new agricultural technology to local farmers. While Dehsabz represents the future, existing Kabul City will always be the heart of Afghan history, and this heritage will be lovingly preserved and restored. Side by side they will emerge as a world class Islamic capital city, capable of supporting Afghan and regional aspirations for the future, while preserving the heritage of existing Kabul for generations to come. A fusion of the best of the old world and the new, Kabul will stand as a symbol of Afghan determination and a testament to international cooperation. A beacon of hope on the roof of the world. Bird Eye view of the Concept Design of the New City (Dehsabz) View of the “Central Park” and surroundings A walk-through view of the Commercial Boulevard of the New City Futurist Portrait: Nick Bostrom Nick Bostrom is a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk and the Anthropic principle. He holds a PhD from the London School of Economics (2000). He is currently the director of The Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University. In addition to his writing for academic and popular press, Bostrom makes frequent media appearances in which he talks about transhumanism-related topics such as cloning, artificial intelligence, superintelligence, mind uploading, cryonics, nanotechnology, and the simulation argument. In 1998, Bostrom co-founded (with David Pearce) the World Transhumanist Association (which has since changed its name to Humanity+). In 2004, he co-founded (with James Hughes) the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies. Bostrom currently serves as the Chair of both organizations. In 2005 he was appointed Director of the newly created Oxford Future of Humanity Institute. Bostrom is the 2009 recipient of the Eugene R. Gannon Award for the Continued Pursuit of Human Advancement. Nick Bostrom: “Suppose we get many little things right and make some progress. What use, if we are marching in the wrong direction? Or wasting our resources on projects of small utility while pivotal tasks are left undone? What if we are profoundly mistaken about what matters most? There are big potential gains from getting better at thinking about the right kinds of macro-questions, because at stake is our whole scheme of priorities. Some of these questions are about moral judgment and values. Others have to do with rationality and reasoning under uncertainty. Still others pertain to specific concerns and possibilities, such as existential risks, the simulation hypothesis, human enhancement, transhumanism, and the singularity hypothesis. My working assumption: These high-leverage questions deserve to be studied with at least the same level of seriousness, scholarship, and creativity that is routinely applied to all sorts of insignificant micro-questions. This assumption might be wrong. Perhaps we are so irredeemably inept at thinking about the big picture that it is good that we usually don’t. Perhaps attempting to wake up will only result in bad dreams. But how will we know unless we try? Agenda Our Season Program 2009 / 2010: November 1918:30-21:15 February 1118:30-21:15   the future of WasteLocation: WTC, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business, D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdamthe future of BiosensingLocation: Waag Society, Nieuwmarkt 4, 1012 CR Amsterdam [Center of the Nieuwmarkt] March 2518:30-21:15   the future of SportsLocation: Amsterdam April 2918:30-21:15   the future of MusicLocation: Hogeschool van Amsterdam, Amstelcampus, Rhijnspoorplein 1, 1091 GC Amsterdam June 318:30-21:15   the future of CERNLocation: Amsterdam  

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2009, Issue 123

Content World Economic and Social Survey 2009 Next Event The GalaxyDress Club of Amsterdam blog News about the Future Permaculture Food Forest Recommended book Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. Study Futurist Portrait: George Dvorsky Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. “I like men who have a future and women who have a past””– Oscar Wilde, Poet “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” – Antoine de Saint-Exupery, Pilot and Author “The distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.” – Albert Einstein, Physicist “Elegance is not the prerogative of those who have just escaped from adolescence, but of those who have already taken possession of their future.” – Coco Chanel, Fashion Designer “Happiness is not something you postpone for the future; it is something you design for the present.” – Jim Rohn, Business Philosopher Join our next event – share your thoughtsFebruary 11 the future of Biosensing Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief World Economic and Social Survey 2009Promoting Development, Saving the Planet UN report says addressing climate change requires investing in low-emission, high-growth strategies for developing countries As negotiations for a new global agreement to address climate change enter the final stages before the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference this December, the United Nations is issuing a report today that analyzes the growing demands on developing countries as threats from a warming world are added to longstanding development challenges. The report, The World Economic and Social Survey 2009: Promoting Development, Saving the Planet, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, sees little benefit in ad hoc incremental actions, spelling out instead the potential of a big investment push to deliver on both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and helping communities to cope with climate change, and calling for more truly integrated policy responses to development and climate challenges. It does not shy away from describing the enormity of the adjustments that will have to be undertaken by countries at all levels of development if progress is to be made; or from insisting that the advanced countries will have to deliver resources and leadership on a much larger scale than has been the case to date. According to the report, active participation of all countries in tackling the climate challenge will only come about if developing countries can maintain rapid economic growth. This will require satisfying the growing energy needs of developing countries: the energy-generating capacity of developing countries is projected to double that of developed countries in the coming decades. This raises the question for climate change negotiators of how poor countries can pursue low-emissions, high-growth development. The technologies – from low-energy buildings, to new drought-resistant crop strains and more advanced primary renewables – that would allow developing countries to make the switch to a sustainable development path presently do exist. But they are often prohibitively expensive and, the report says, such a transformation would require “a level of international support and solidarity rarely mustered outside a wartime setting.” The report challenges the thinking that the climate problem can simply be addressed by across-the-board emission cuts by all countries from their present levels or by relying exclusively on market-based solutions to generate the required investments.Developing countries, the report finds, are facing “vastly more daunting challenges than those confronting developed countries and in a far more constrained environment.” Economic growth remains a priority for them, not only to reduce poverty but also to bring about a gradual narrowing of the huge income differentials with wealthy countries. “The idea of freezing the current level of global inequality over the next half century or more (as the world goes about trying to solve the climate problem) is economically, politically and ethically unacceptable,” the report states. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, writing in the report’s preface, says that the Survey “makes the case for meeting both the climate challenge and the development challenge by recognizing the links between the two and proceeding along low-emissions, high-growth pathways. There is no single blueprint for achieving these goals. The Survey examines the key building blocks in order to assess the best possible options available to countries at different levels of development.” A failure to match words and deedsThe race to keep global temperatures within safe bounds is now a race against time. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there needs to be a cut in global emissions by 2050 by between 50 and 80 per cent, which is equivalent to a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels from roughly 40 gigatons (Gt) per year (at present) to 8-20 Gt. But as the Survey suggests, increased scientific understanding and greater public awareness have not translated into a focused policy response. This is particularly true in today’s advanced industrialized countries, whose two centuries of carbon-fuelled growth lie behind the present warming of the earth. Since 1950, the advanced countries have contributed as much as three-quarters of the increase in global emissions, despite accounting for less than 15 per cent of the world’s population. The failure of wealthy countries to honour long-standing commitments of international support for poverty reduction and adequate transfers of resources and technology remains the single biggest obstacle to meeting the climate change challenge, the Survey contends. Different economies, different energy outlooksIt is in developing countries that the impacts of climate change are most keenly felt and where the greatest impacts are forecast – more severe droughts in some areas, more intense precipitation in others will wreak havoc with the world’s water supplies and agricultural capacities. Melting glaciers and retreating ice in the Polar regions are contributing to sea level rise, threatening the very existence of small island nations and coastal communities that do not have the resources to adapt. Estimates cited in the report show that for every 1°C rise in average global temperatures, annual average growth in poor countries could drop by 2-3 percentage points, with no change in the growth performance of rich countries. At the same time, the report notes that developed countries have per capita emissions that are still on average 6 to 7 times greater than those in developing countries.One of the most overlooked aspects of the climate debate, the report argues, is that the energy needs of developing countries are very different from those of developed countries. The latter have adequate – even excessive – energy services and infrastructure available. Most developing countries, on the other hand, struggle to provide even basic energy services from inadequate infrastructure. Globally, between 1.6 and 2 billion people lack access to electricity, and connecting those people to energy services will cost an estimated $25 billion per year over the next 20 years. Because of these stark differences, rich and poor countries require different mitigation strategies to address climate change. While a rise in the price of fossil fuels, or changes in lifestyles, may result in the increased use of renewable energy in developed countries, higher fuel costs in developing countries would simply place any modern energy services beyond the means of many more people.The cost of meeting the needs of the “energy destitute” is still small, the report estimates, particularly when compared with the billions pledged by many developed country governments to rescue their financial sectors and automotive industries. “In comparison, the cost of bringing 2 billion people into the modern energy service system would appear to be a real bargain,” the report suggests, noting that the amount of development aid presently spent on energy is only about $4 billion annually, where at least tens of billions are needed. A big investment push towards a sustainable futureStill, the challenge of providing everyone with access to some modern form of energy is small in comparison with that of meeting steep rises in energy demand in developing countries to fuel catch-up growth and to provide energy services to growing urban communities. Expanding cleaner energy services to meet this rise in demand is technologically feasible. However, such a shift, the Survey argues, is neither inevitable nor inconsequential. Recognizing that such a switch “would entail unprecedented and potentially very costly socio-economic adjustments” in developing countries, the Survey argues that achieving such a transformation hinges on the creation of a “global new deal” capable of raising investment levels and channeling resources towards lowering the carbon content of economic activity and building resilience with respect to unavoidable climate changes. To realize scale economies and the benefits of technological learning, the Survey argues that large upfront investments will need to be made, particularly by the public sector, in new energy infrastructure and in complementary research and development to bring down costs. But these efforts will be hampered by constraints on domestic resource mobilization and the limited ability of many developing countries to raise capital in international markets, particularly bond markets. If investment spending is to go towards ensuring cleaner growth pathways, it will require massive international support by means of a global investment programme. How much will action cost?There are widely varying estimates for how much additional financing is needed to address the mitigation and adaptation aspects of climate change, often depending on any number of factors, including the range of the greenhouse gas reduction target. These estimates can range anywhere from as little as 0.2 to about 2 per cent of World Gross Product (WGP), or between $180 billion and $1.2 trillion per year. However, in most projections the big spending would not be required until 2030. The report goes against conventional wisdom by suggesting that significant additional investments in mitigation and adaptation need to take place sooner rather than later, to the tune of at least 1 per cent of WGP annually, between $500 billion and $600 billion. A failure to think in these bolder terms runs the real danger of locking in dirtier investments for several more decades. But by continuing in the present business-as-usual scenario, or making only marginal changes, the permanent loss of projected WGP could be as high as 20 per cent.By any measure, the Survey says that the amounts from bilateral and multilateral sources currently promised and expected to be available for meeting the climate challenge in the near term are woefully inadequate. More than half of the incremental costs of greenhouse gas abatement are expected to fall on developing countries, whose energy investments over the coming decades are projected to grow much faster than those of developed countries.Currently, it is estimated that about $21 billion in official development assistance is dedicated each year to addressing climate change, much of this for mitigation. The total amount of climate financing that is required is a large multiple of that figure. If the international community is serious about a “global new deal,” the Survey suggests, it should be just as serious about committing resources on the same scale as was needed to tackle the financial crisis and defeat political extremism. According to the report, the difficulty of reaching even the current levels of aid commitments suggests that global financing for climate change will require a much more determined effort on the part of advanced countries to provide bold leadership on the climate issue and bolster international cooperation. But it will also require an effort on the part of developing countries to mobilize a larger share of their resources for cleaner investments along a new, sustainable growth path. A way forwardAddressing the climate change challenge requires different approaches in developed and developing countries, the Survey suggests. Market solutions, including the development of a carbon market, through “cap and trade” mechanisms or taxation schemes in developed countries, are not the solution for developing countries. “Perhaps the more sensible, forward-looking view,” the report states, “is to recognize that carbon markets will continue to expand but that the pace and scale will not be sufficient to help developing countries break the financial constraint on proceeding along a low-emissions development pathway.” Rather, the Survey says the preferred option for developing countries should be a combination of large-scale investments and active policy interventions. This would require strong and sustained political commitment by developing country Governments and, as critically, sizeable and effective multilateral support with respect to both finance and the transfer of technology. The report sets out a range of possible multilateral measures in support of a global investment programme, including a global clean energy fund, a global feed-in tariff regime in support of renewable energy sources, a climate technology programme and a more balanced intellectual property regime for aiding the transfer of clean technologies. Along with strong domestic government interventions, these can provide guidance to the private sector, the report states, commending developing countries for initiatives moving in this direction, such as Brazil’s ethanol programme and China’s renewable energy programme. An earlier success story cited was the United States’ Tennessee Valley Authority, which helped provide the energy that transformed an entire region after World War II. According to the Survey, the big difference this time around “is that the new investment deal that is needed to meet the climate challenge must be recognized as a truly global project.” Next Event the future of BiosensingThursday, February 11, 2010 Location: Waag Society, Nieuwmarkt 4, 1012 CR Amsterdam [Center of the Nieuwmarkt] Biosensing is the conversion of biological processes into useful information. Incorporating “a variety of means, including electrical, electronic, and photonic devices; biological materials (e.g., tissue, enzymes, nucleic acids, etc.) and chemical analysis” biosensing produces signals to detect biological elements, using related technologies to convert these signals into readable data. From biomedicine to food production, environment to security and defense, biosensing addresses a rapidly growing industry in this field. What is more, the Netherlands is home to a number of scientists who are currently working on a number of biosensors, promising to come up with groundbreaking new technologies in all. For the future of Biosensing a few of these scientists are going to share some insights of their work to describe how our future might be effected as a result of these developments. The GalaxyDress The GalaxyDress designed by CuteCircuit is the center piece of the “Fast Forward: Inventing the Future” exhibit at the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago. The museum is celebrating its 75 years and has commissioned the GalaxyDress for their permanent collection. The GalaxyDress provides a spectacular and mesmerizing effect being embroidered with 24000 color LEDs, it is the largest wearable display in the world. Constructed using the smallest full-color LEDs that are flat like paper and measuring only 2 by 2 mm. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com October 6: … Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the ReceiverSeptember 21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution for Community DevelopmentAugust 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media pastApril 5: Visions for a Sustainable FutureFebruary 10: How China, A Rising World Power Deals with the Current Crisis and Challenges Facing the WorldJanuary 5: It HappenedJanuary 5: The Real Truth About Beauty: A Global Report News about the Future Biotech violin Empa researcher Francis Schwarze and Swiss violin maker Michael Rhonheimer’s «biotech violin» dared to go head to head in a blind test against a stradivarius – and won! A brilliant outcome for the Empa violin, which is made of wood treated with fungus, against the instrument made by the great master himself in 1711. In the test, the British star violinist Matthew Trusler played five different instruments behind a curtain, so that the audience did not know which was being played. One of the violins Trusler played was his own strad, worth two million dollars. The other four were all made by Rhonheimer – two with fungally-treated wood, the other two with untreated wood. A jury of experts, together with the conference participants, judged the tone quality of the violins. Of the more than 180 attendees, an overwhelming number – 90 persons – felt the tone of the fungally treated violin «Opus 58» to be the best. Trusler’s stradivarius reached second place with 39 votes, but amazingly enough 113 members of the audience thought that «Opus 58» was actually the strad! «Opus 58» is made from wood which had been treated with fungus for the longest time, nine months. Osmotic power plant The world’s first osmotic power plant opened at Tofte, outside Oslo, Norway. The plant generates power by exploiting the energy available when fresh water and seawater are mixed. Osmotic power is a renewable and emissions-free energy source that Statkraft has been researching into for 10 years and that will be capable of making a substantial global contribution to eco-friendly power production. Statkraft is the world’s leader in the development of osmotic power. Osmotic power is clean, renewable energy, with a global potential of 1 600 to 1 700 TWh – equal to China’s total electricity consumption in 2002. Statkraft is Europe’s largest renewable energy company. The Group develops and generates hydropower, wind power, gas power and district heating, and is a major player on the European power exchanges. Statkraft also develops marine energy, osmotic power, solar power, and other innovative energy solutions. In 2008 Statkraft posted gross operating revenues of EUR 3.1 billion. The group employs 3,200 staff in more than 20 countries. Permaculture Food Forest Source: the Permaculture Institute The idea of forest gardens (food forests) was first articulated by Robert A. de J. Hart in his book ‘Forest Gardening’ and subsequently became one of the keystone concepts in permaculture. A permaculture forest garden mimics the architecture and beneficial relationships of a natural forest. Food forests are not ‘natural’, but are designed and managed ecosystems that are very rich in biodiversity and productivity. At our farm, the food forests are designed to meet several goals: to produce food to produce forage for beneficial insects, pollinators, chickens and song birds to create wildlife habitat to nurture for our bodies through herbal teas and concoctions to create beauty and sense of well being In many locations, the fruit trees produce on average every 2-3 years, due to late frosts or other calamities. But when things work out in the spring, the harvest is great, and it is time to make enough preserves to last for a few lean years. Comfrey and yarrow work good together as a plant guild near fruit trees in our climate. Yarrow attracts beneficial insects, and has medicinal properties. Comfrey hides in its shade, offering its meaty leaves as high-protein animal forage. Because of the dry climate, normally prolific comfrey does not spread in the areas that are not watered. We use this plant guild around young fruit trees, to shade the trunk and ground. Guinea chicks eat grasshoppers, catepillars and ants. They also like fruit, and help (somewhat) with cleaning out the orchard floor. In urban situation, a few bantam chickens would be useful for this purpose. Goats and chickens get tree cuttings, fruit and culled veggies and plants from the Food Forest. We don’t let them browse amidst fruit trees (too much destruction), they get to munch on it in their yard only.Rhubarb is a good insectary plant a food forest. It is attractive to pollinators and various beneficials, who literally cover the entire plant in the early months of summer. To see it happen, let your rhubarb blossom, and don’t cut the blooming stems until they are dry. Take a look to see green lacewings, beneficial wasps and the lady bugs all up and down the stalk. Recommended Book The Age of Empathy: Nature’s Lessons for a Kinder Societyby Frans de Waal For about a decade before I wrote The Age of Empathy, I gathered information on the role of empathy and trust in society — both human and animal. This material came partly from our own research, but most of it from all kind of external sources, recent articles on human behavior, pieces in the media, lectures I attended, clippings from newspapers, and so on. Stories of empathy and altruism are all around us. The book has two main themes. The first is to analyze empathy and it various levels from an evolutionary standpoint, tracing its origin all the way back to early mammals. I would never exclude birds as potentially empathic, but so much less is known about them that I focus on the mammals. Many people have dogs and cats at home, so that they have no trouble understanding the connections that I make between human and animal empathy. The second theme is trickier, because it’s outside my area. This is the role of empathy in society, including human society, such as in politics, religion, the economy, and so on. Couldn’t we use a bit more empathy in society? I feel that the time is ripe for this question, since the emphasis on greed as the driving force has lately been exposed as extremely dangerous. It has brought us near financial ruin, and society is grappling with what to do next. Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. Study The EACC study estimates that it will cost $75 – $100 billion each year to adapt to climate change from 2010 to 2050. The World Bank is working with seven pilot countries – Bangladesh, the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, Samoa and Vietnam on a new study – the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change. The study is funded by the Governments of the United Kingdom, Netherlands, and Switzerland and will help inform the international community’s efforts to provide new and additional resources to developing countries through a better understanding of the global costs of adapting to climate change. It will also help decision makers at the national level to better cost, prioritize, sequence and integrate robust adaptation strategies into their development plans and budgets in a context of high uncertainty, competing needs and limited financial resources. While national governments have to protect their most vulnerable people and identify financing mechanisms to make their countries resilient to climate change, these costs of adapting to climate change are not known. Futurist Portrait: George Dvorsky George Dvorsky is Canada’s leading agenda-driven futurist/activist and an award winning blogger, George writes and speaks widely about the impacts of cutting-edge science and technology. He is the Director of Operations for Commune Media, an advertising and marketing firm that specializes in marketing science. He is the co-founder and president of the Toronto Transhumanist Association and served on the Board of Directors for the Humanity Plus from 2004-06. He serves on the Board of Directors for the IEET. George was the organizing chair for TransVision 2004, an international conference addressing the scientific, political and social issues surrounding human biotechnology. George has been interviewed by such publications as The Guardian, the BBC, Radio Free Europe, and Beliefnet. He made an appearance on the CBC’s The Hour and has been profiled in NOW and This Magazine. He has also written for such publications as The Humanist, Canadian Freethinker, Cryonics Magazine and various Thomson & Gale universitywww.sentientdevelopments.com George Dvorsky – Journalism, Human Enhancement & The Singularity Agenda Our Season Program 2009 / 2010: February 1118:30-21:15   the future of BiosensingLocation: Waag Society, Nieuwmarkt 4, 1012 CR Amsterdam March 2518:30-21:15   the future of SportsLocation: Amsterdam April 2918:30-21:15   the future of MusicLocation: Hogeschool van Amsterdam, Amstelcampus, Rhijnspoorplein 1, 1091 GC Amsterdam June 318:30-21:15   the future of CERNLocation: Amsterdam  

Climate Change / Food / Social Revolution and …

The Future Now Show September 2014  about Climate Change / Food / Social Revolution and … FeaturingLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc.Kirsten van Dam, Director & Founder, Out Of OfficeArjen Kamphuis, Futurist, Co-founder, CTO, GendoHardy F. Schloer, Managing Director, Schloer Consulting Group about Climate Change, Food and … Arjen Kamphuis calls climate change humanity’s greatest threat. How will we deal with this and with resource depletion, as forecast famously by the Club of Rome in the ‘70s? Does the point of no return for a solution lie ahead or has it passed and, if so, with what consequences? Kirsten van Dam poses a related critical question, how to feed an ever-increasing population in a time of diminishing resources? Will technology provide an answer, as it has done before, or does mass starvation threaten? A re-run of the Rome model in 2005 forecast collapse for any reasonable input values. And how bad could runaway climate change become? Some suggest a reduction of the Earth’s carrying capacity to 2 million souls. One respectable commentator suggests that a transition to a lifeless new Venus is conceivable. A great threat indeed. Joining the discussion are Hardy Schloer and moderator Lise Voldeng. Solutions might require complete abandonment of the cultural and economic models born with the Industrial Revolution. But how much pain is needed to bring about such a revolution? – By Paul Holister, Editor about Social Revolution and … Hardy Schloer sees a common thread in recent events such as the Arab Spring, ISIS, the troubles in Ukraine and more – the uprising of groups defined by cultural or ethnic heritage, united in their rage against the machine. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the nation state (a relatively recent construct anyway)? Will a more natural new world order emerge, or an older one re-emerge? How ugly might the transition be? These questions are discussed with Arjen Kamphuis, Kirsten van Dam and moderator Lise Voldeng and it is agreed that the recent revolution in global communications is central, now and for the future. Maybe borders are obstacles and traditional democracy is outdated. Maybe we need a sense of belonging and usefulness that is framed around humanity rather than a nation or economic interests. – By Paul Holister, Editor The Future Now ShowSeptember 2014Credits ModeratorLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. Thought LeadersKirsten van Dam, Director & Founder, Out Of OfficeArjen Kamphuis, Futurist, Co-founder, CTO, GendoHardy F. Schloer, Managing Director, Schloer Consulting Group andMario de Vries, Media Specialist, DesignPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text

3-D printing and medicine / marketing made meaningful / Balanced Communities and …

The Future Now Show October 2014 about 3-D printing and medicine, Marketing made meaningful, Balanced Communities and … FeaturingLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc.Mylena de Pierremont, Board Member, World Future SocietyPatrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & AssociatesMarkus Petz, Head of Special Projects & Development, Experience Alternative Tampere about 3-D printing and medicine, Marketing made meaningful and … 3-D printing services are popping up everywhere, but, given their low scalability, where will their biggest impact be? Patrick Crehan reckons that it will be in printing living things. Not whole beasts but organs, from skin (already available) to hearts. The panel discusses the ethical implications, pulling in the increasing ability to build life from DNA up. Sounds scary? It probably isn’t. Probably… Talking about scary, what about massive corporations, whose wealth affords enormous power but whose primary driving force (shareholder value) is fundamentally amoral? Mylena de Pierremont suggests that societal pressures (presumably fuelled by enhanced global communication and wider investor spread) are driving a new business model whereby things like transparency, sustainability and corporate responsibility equate to shareholder value. Maybe those ‘evil giants’ need not be defeated but can be converted. – By Paul Holister, Editor about Balanced Communities and … Mark Petz introduces the ‘global village’, as typified by the balance4yourlife project, billed as a new form of ‘intentional community’ – a sustainable urban village firmly anchored in the modern, interconnected world. While global populations are increasingly migrating to cities and city living is proving the most sustainable, can this concept buck that trend? After all, modern communications are often making geographical proximity less important. The attraction of villages, green fields and trees aside, is the small inclusive community, for which humans have arguably evolved, the antithesis of the impersonal anonymity of city life. Is the global village then a potential model for the future, maybe alongside cities? And will we all be invited? – By Paul Holister, Editor and The Future Now ShowOctober 2014 Credits ModeratorLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. Thought LeadersMylena de Pierremont, Board Member, World Future SocietyPatrick Crehan, CEO and Founder, Crehan, Kusano & AssociatesMarkus Petz, Head of Special Projects & Development, Experience Alternative Tampere andMario de Vries, Media Specialist, DesignPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text

Political transition in the Middle East and North Africa, Changing Universities and ..

The Future Now Show November 2014 about political transition in the Middle East and North Africa, Changing Universities and .. featuringSimon Jones, Provost at Nazarbayev University, KazakhstanJames M Dorsey, SingaporeHumberto Schwab, Owner Humberto Schwab Filosofia, Spain about political transition in the Middle East and North Africaand .. In late 2010 and for some time after the Arab Spring raised hopes of an awakening in societies across the Middle East and North Africa of principles long cherished in ”the West” – human rights, social justice, equality and so on. What went wrong? Four years later the phrase “Arab Winter” has gained currency. Has it all turned sour or is it just the start of a long, painful, and possibly bloody, process with many years yet to play out? Has something in these societies changed irrevocably? Will the geopolitical interests of major powers, including those of the “free” and democratic West, stifle the nascent ambitions in these regions in the name of stability, as they have done in the past? – Paul Holister, Editor about Changing Universities and … When you think about universities, Kazakhstan probably doesn’t come to mind. Yet it houses a university that has partnerships with prestigious universities from around the world. The incentive for such universities in many non-western and often non-democratic countries seems primarily economic – the Asian Tigers demonstrated the economic value of easy access to quality higher education. But questions arise. As higher education becomes increasingly a privilege in the US, what sort of economic shifts might result? How do these universities differ from traditional western ones, especially in societies where freedom of speech is more limited? Are they just turning out skilled cogs for businesses or people more broadly developed intellectually? Does involvement of prestigious western institutions help prop up autocratic regimes? Or is the long-term effect inevitably for the greater good? – Paul Holister, Editor The Future Now ShowNovember 2014Credits ModeratorHumberto Schwab, Owner Humberto Schwab Filosofia, Spain Thought LeadersSimon Jones, Provost at Nazarbayev University, KazakhstanJames M Dorsey, Singapore Intro voicesGunvanthi Balaram, freelance writer, editor, translator, IndiaJack Gallagher, Artistic Director & Choreographer, Bodies Anonymous andMario de Vries, Media Specialist, DesignPaul Holister, Editor

Hope Barometer, Collaborative Networks, Privacy and …

The Future Now Show December 2014  about the Hope Barometer, Collaborative Networks, Privacy and … featuringAndreas M. Walker, weiterdenken.ch, Co-President, swissfuture, SwitzerlandNick Price, Creative Business Consultant and Futurist, UKHardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group, MalaysiaLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc., Canada / USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text about the Hope Barometer and .. How are we doing? If you ask that question of a politician or journalist you will likely get an answer quoting the gross domestic product (GDP), an impersonal metric that someone once derided as a measure of how much we are stealing from the future to sell in the present. So what should we usefully measure? Bhutan introduced “Gross National Happiness” 40 years ago. The Swiss have been indexing fears and worries for 30 years, but they now also have a barometer of hope. How do these measures differ in terms of focus (personal, national, global) and depth, in the sense of being reactive to current events (disasters, terrorist attacks) or founded on fundamental human desires? How do they differ across cultures? A rich topic in which investigation and discussion have only just begun. about Collaborative Networks and … The topic of this show is collaborative networks, which are generally associated with leveraging the internet to work in groups where the members are geographically separated. But the mere existence of social networks like Facebook enables spontaneous collaboration regardless of geographical separation and some activist groups are already using this to great effect. But what are the broader implications of such collaboration? National cultures show strong differences in sentiment, in perception of threats and priorities, and we know that people instinctively behave differently in groups than individually. Will globally connected groups emerge that overshadow national groups or will group sentiments give way to individual sentiments? Will we become more varied or more homogenous, more easily manipulated or more independent in mind and heart, more harmonious or more discordant? about Privacy and … Despite outrage about intrusions of the NSA into our privacy, hordes of us are letting companies like Google ever deeper into our private lives because of the targeted services this enables. Social and work-related discussions increasingly take place in public forums. Do we need to abandon our privacy and accept that our chats, our musings, our lives in general, are open to public view?Would such an evolution lead to a culture of transparency with greater openness? Greater tolerance? Or more mindless mobs? Is it actually a step back, to the days of the village or tribe when everyone knew what everyone else was doing, an environment for which humans evolved and are arguably better adapted to than the more recent civilisation with its anonymity and demigods? The Future Now ShowDecember 2014Credits ModeratorLise Voldeng, CEO & Chief Creative Officer, Ultra-Agent Industries Inc., Canada / USA Thought LeadersAndreas M. Walker, weiterdenken.ch, Co-President, swissfuture, SwitzerlandNick Price, Creative Business Consultant and Futurist, UKHardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group, Malaysia Intro voicesFerananda Ibarra, VillageLab, MexicoMathijs van Zutphen, Ad Valorum, the NetherlandsJack Gallagher, Artistic Director & Choreographer, Bodies Anonymous andMario de Vries, Media Specialist, DesignPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text

Governance for All / Philosophy unbound / Robotics and A.I. and …

The Future Now Show February 2015 about Governance for All / Philosophy unbound / Robotics and A.I. and … featuringKarin Jironet, Co-founder of In Claritas, the NetherlandsMarkus Petz, Head of Special Projects & Development, Experience Alternative Tampere, AustriaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAAnnegien Blokpoel, Founder & CEO, PerspeXo, the NetherlandsPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text about Governance for All and .. The westernised world seems to be living in a state of increasing fear, with many believing we face a clash of civilisations. On one side our cherished democratic ways and on the other, it seems, a rigid, hierarchical (religious) force hell-bent on destroying us. Is there an outlook that is more inclusive of the differences and would we even see it in this polarised climate (which the Hebdo attack may have been intended to worsen)? Might causes of the clash be going unrecognised, like blowback from things we have done in their countries. Does our fear maybe even stem from insecurity inflicted on ourselves by globalisation? When the very nature and causes of the situation are so clouded, how do you decide on a direction? about Philosophy unbound and … Philosophy unbound is a group trying to reclaim philosophy from stuffy academia and bring it alive for people in something akin to the underground music scene. (Imagine your teenage daughter of a Saturday night saying “Dad, I’m going to a philosophy gig in town tonight. I might be home late.”) By keeping it practical, relevant to people’s lives and participative, the hope is that it will spread widely. Will it? What broader impact might it have? And if you want to get really speculative, how would it look with the involvement of enhanced humans or artificial intelligences? about Robotics and A.I. and … Computing power is growing exponentially, and technological advance is accelerating – maybe also exponentially. There is no obvious reason this will stop. Look far enough ahead – and given the nature of exponential growth that might not be so far – and our future offers artificial intelligences that make us look puny, the possibility of humans merging with said intelligences and wild ideas like uploading our consciousness into immortal machines that could head out to the stars, unfettered by the frailty of human bodies. But what is to stop an elite few from taking the spoils and leaving the rest of us behind? We keep losing jobs to machines and this won’t stop so why are working hours and the retirement age going up? A classic utopia vs dystopia discussion seems in order. Which way are we leaning? The Future Now ShowFebruary 2015Credits ModeratorAnnegien Blokpoel, Founder & CEO, PerspeXo, the Netherlands Thought LeadersKarin Jironet, Co-founder of In Claritas, the NetherlandsMarkus Petz, Head of Special Projects & Development, Experience Alternative, Tampere, AustriaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USA Intro voicesFerananda Ibarra, VillageLab, MexicoGunvanthi Balaram, freelance writer, editor, translator, IndiaJack Gallagher, Artistic Director & Choreographer, Bodies Anonymous andMario de Vries, Media Specialist, DesignPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text