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Club of Amsterdam Journal, April 2020, Issue 225

Content Climate disasters increase risks of armed conflicts: new evidence By Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany A Fast, Fair and Effective Solution to the Climate Crisis by Brigitte Van Gerven The Future Now ShowAfrica: A Ticking Bomb with Cristiana Benedetti Fasil Green New Deal for Europe News about the Future: Solar Windows / Energy self-sufficient households in Switzerland by 2050? 5G is Bad For Our Health – Not! by Peter Cochrane Recommended Book: Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing Worldby Brian Walker, David Salt The Animal Communicator Anna Breytenbach Climate Change Success Story: Sustainable Rubber by Seow Lye Lok Futurist Portrait: Ken Dychtwald Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about Africa: A Ticking Bomb with Cristiana Benedetti Fasil “The demographics of Africa are unique. Sixty percent of the population is below 25 years old. However, millions of youth lack employment and educational opportunities and cannot develop their full potential. Especially girls and young women are disadvantaged. Women are the backbone of the society. Their empowerment is the key to an inclusive and sustainable economic development. We cannot let down the youth of Africa and we need to act now to defuse the ticking bomb of youth unemployment. With Social Venture Africa we want to make our small contribution to address the challenge.” Felix B BoppFounder & Chairman, Club of AmsterdamUniversal Peace Ambassador Climate disasters increase risks of armed conflicts: new evidence The risk for violent clashes increases after weather extremes such as droughts or floods hit people in vulnerable countries, an international team of scientists finds. Vulnerable countries are characterized by a large population, political exclusion of particular ethnic groups, and low development. The study combines global statistical analysis, observation data and regional case study assessments to yield new evidence for policy-makers. “Climate disasters can fuel some smoldering conflicts – this is a worrying insight since such disasters are on the rise,” says Jonathan Donges at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, co-author of the paper now published in Global Environmental Change. “Ongoing greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels are, if unmitigated, destabilizing our climate. More frequent and more severe weather extremes are one of the effects. The new study adds important evidence and hence robustness to conflict analyses we’ve done in the past few years.” “One third of all conflict onsets in vulnerable countries” is affected The numbers are quite staggering. “We find that almost one third of all conflict onsets in vulnerable countries over the recent decade have been preceded by a climate-related disaster within 7 days,” says co-author Carl-Friedrich Schleussner from Climate Analytics in Berlin, Germany. “This does, however, not mean that disasters cause conflicts, but rather that disaster occurrence increases the risks of a conflict outbreak.” After all, conflict is human-made. The analysis of concrete cases of disaster-conflict co-occurences shows that most such cases are not mere coincidences, but likely linked by causal mechanisms – this is one of the key new findings. In Mali for instance a severe drought occurred in 2009 after which the militant Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb exploited the resulting state weakness and desperation of local people to recruit fighters and expand its area of operation. Other examples analyzed include China, the Philippines, Nigeria, and Turkey. India turns out to be the country with the by far highest number of disaster-conflict coincidences. The most surprising result of the study, says co-author Michael Brzoska from the University of Hamburg, was the prevalence of opportunities for armed violence over those related to grievances in post-disaster situations. “Measures to make societies more inclusive and wealthier are no-regrets options” “Climate-related disasters may act like a ‘threat multiplier’ for violent conflicts,” explains Tobias Ide from the University of Melbourne. A most important finding of the study is that only countries with large populations, the political exclusion of ethnic groups and relatively low levels of economic development are susceptible to disaster-conflict links. Optimistically, Ide concludes: “Measures to make societies more inclusive and wealthier are, therefore, no-regrets options to increase security in a warming world.” Weblink to the article:www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019307307 A Fast, Fair and Effective Solution to the Climate Crisis By Brigitte Van Gerven, on behalf of the Citizens’ Climate Lobby Europe, Brussels, April 05, 2020Contact: brigittevangerven@citizensclimatelobby.be In her pre-election manifesto My Agenda for Europe Ursula von der Leyen outlined her ambition that Europe become the first climate neutral continent. She acknowledged that to make this happen, carbon emissions must have a price, that every person and every sector will have to contribute, and that what is good for the planet must also be good for the people of Europe. In particular she expressed the need for a “just transition for all.” The challenge of dealing with the climate crisis is therefore two-fold. The technical challenge of reducing CO2 emissions, and the social challenge of financing the transition in a way that citizens will see as “just.” An important idea which could go a long way to achieving these goals is the idea of a Carbon Fee and Dividend. Many economists are strongly in favor of this approach and have long advocated the introduction of this policy. In January 2019, an open letter on the subject was published in the Wall Street Journal. In the largest joint statement by economists in history, it was signed by more than 3,500 economists, including 27 Nobel Prize laureates, 4 former chairs of the Federal Reserve and 15 former chairs of the US Council of Economic Advisors. The principle is simple. A steadily rising fee is imposed on all fossil fuels, proportional to their CO2 emissions. This will drive down carbon pollution since companies, industries, the public sector and consumers will move toward cleaner, cheaper options. It will speed up the phasing out of fossil fuels, and will dramatically boost green investments, accelerating the development and large-scale commercialization of low-carbon technologies. The money collected from the carbon fee is then distributed equally among all citizens. This Dividend or Climate Income ensures that the average cost of living does not increase. The majority of households, among which most lower- and middle-income households, may even benefit from this policy. The Carbon Fee and Dividend is therefore a game-changer allowing politicians to pursue an ambitious climate policy widely supported by the population. The mechanism is self-funding, so no new budgets are needed to implement the policy. A major advantage in times of economic crisis and rising budget deficits. This idea is gaining popularity worldwide. Since 2008 it has been implemented in Switzerland. Since April 2019 it has being implemented in Canada. The Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act is currently being put to the US Congress with bipartisan support. The idea has now spread to 13 countries. The Climate Fee and Dividend provides a fast, fair and effective response to the climate crisis. It needs to be given serious consideration in Europe. Citizens Climate Lobby Europe is leading a European Citizens Initiative, to do just that. The goal of the initiative is to put the carbon fee and dividend approach on the legislative agenda for Europe. But for this to work we do need something more. A comprehensive study of the feasibility and benefit of this scheme was carried out in the US in 2014 by REMI. It concluded that the approach would lead to a rapid decrease in CO2 emissions, the creation of 2.8 million new jobs, and the avoidance of 230 000 premature deaths due to a reduction in air pollution. We need to do a similar study for Europe. Citizens Climate Lobby in Europe is therefore advocating that a similar study be undertaken by European economists, to assess the impacts of this promising policy on the European economy, and to provide guidance on how it might be implemented across the EU and its member states. To find out more about the carbon fee and dividend, about the work of the Citizens Climate Lobby in Europe, there are 2 Facebook Live events coming up, on Saturday May 2 and Friday June 3, at 17.00hrs CET. You can also consult the following websites and sign the petition for a Climate Income Now.” CCL Belgium: https://www.citizensclimatelobby.be” CCL Europe: https://citizensclimateinitiative.eu” CCL USA: https://www.citizensclimatelobby.org The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. May 2020 Africa: A Ticking BombwithCristiana Benedetti Fasil “The demographics of Africa are unique. Sixty percent of the population is below 25 years old. However, millions of youth lack employment and educational opportunities and cannot develop their full potential. Especially girls and young women are disadvantaged. Women are the backbone of the society. Their empowerment is the key to an inclusive and sustainable economic development. We cannot let down the youth of Africa and we need to act now to defuse the ticking bomb of youth unemployment. With Social Venture Africa we want to make our small contribution to address the challenge.” The Future Now ShowCredits Cristiana Benedetti Fasil, President and Co-founder of the NGO Social Venture Africa, www.svafrica.orgResearcher at the Directorate General Joint Research Centre of the European Commission The Future Now Show Green New Deal for Europe Striving to be the first climate-neutral continent Climate change and environmental degradation are an existential threat to Europe and the world. To overcome these challenges, Europe needs a new growth strategy that transforms the Union into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy where there are no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 conomic growth is decoupled from resource use no person and no place is left behind The European Green Deal is our roadmap for making the EU’s economy sustainable. This will happen by turning climate and environmental challenges into opportunities across all policy areas and making the transition just and inclusive for all. Von der Leyen: Outlining the European Green Deal Jeremy Rifkin at DLD Munich 20 Jeremy Rifkin has been an advisor to the leadership of the European Union since 2000. He has advised three presidents of the European Commission – Romano Prodi, Jose Manuel Barroso, and the current President, Jean-Claude Juncker – as well as the European Parliament, and numerous EU heads of state, including Germany’s Angela Merkel, on the ushering in of a smart green Third Industrial Revolution economy. News about the Future Solar Windows convert sunlight that passes through their tiny solar cells. These cells are placed at precise angles to collect light that comes through the window near the window frame. These panels, called “solar concentrators,” funnel light to capture ideal sunlight on the solar spectrum coming through the glass.See: Physee Energy self-sufficient households in Switzerland by 2050? Researchers from ETH Zurich investigated whether it would be technically and economically feasible for households to achieve energy self-sufficiency using photovoltaics alone in the temperate Swiss climate by the middle of the century. The analysis suggests that total self-sufficiency is technically feasible by 2050 for single- and multi-family buildings in Switzerland across a range of scenarios. Self-sufficiency is most easily attainable for single-family households that successfully lower their energy demand through behavioural change and urban vehicle use patterns, meaning less frequent use over shorter distances. The predicted financial feasibility of self-sufficiency depends on several factors, including (hypothetical) government incentives and the savings from the decreasing cost of energy-storage technologies. All fully self-sufficient buildings are more expensive than buildings that are fully electrified but still connected to the grid, but so are households that still use fossil fuels for heating and vehicles. “In other words, electrification is definitely economically beneficial for households, but complete self-sufficiency comes at a cost premium,” adds Stefan Pfenninger, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich 5G is Bad For Our Health – Not! By Professor Peter Cochrane OBE, Cochrane Associates Co-Founder, Sentient Systems University of Suffolk UKhttps://petercochrane.com Every paper that I have seen concerned with the adverse effects of wireless on humans and organisms under the broad banner of EM radiation employ words and phrases like: might, could, possibly, perhaps, and we think, it seems, and so on! Many also end with that fateful phrase; ‘further study is required,’ which I presume is a prelude to yet another grant application. As far as I can see the 100’s of such publications do not present concrete statements, demonstrations or conclusions and there is no real or verifiable risk in evidence! Now a small detail: Many/most studies employ energy densities far in excess of those we use in any of our wireless communication systems. They have to do this to demonstrate small biological changes, but they then proceed to extrapolate down to the far lower energy levels than are actually allowed in our wireless systems. The basis of the extrapolations tend to be linear simplifications of fundamentally exponential mechanisms! This is a gross error and does not constitute proof! More worrying is the lack of corroboration between groups of these bona fide researchers!The plot thickens! Complementing all this are ever more pseudo-scientific papers from people with impressive CVs in various magazines and dubious on-line publications. These are oft quoted as evidence by the already convinced, easily convinced, or wanting/needing to be convinced!What a travesty! Every one of these I have investigated has been nonsense, non-science, neo-science, a combining of belief, misconceptions, falsehoods and erroneous claims sans fact checking or corroboration!Now to some impressive empiricism! At every cell site, wifi-hub, microwave repeater station and radar facility I have visited there have been no dead insects, birds, mice or rats on or around the antenna or the tower base. Further, there has never been any recorded damage to humans using hand-held or vehicle mounted walkie talkies, and man-pack radios over the past 70 years…apart from back strain that is!The other side of the coin: Mobile technology has saved countless lives and lifted peoples out of poverty all over the planet. 5G and what follows will accelerate all this through low latency enabling tele-medicine, tele-care, tele-surgery, tele-robotics, and tele-manufacturing et al. Now, if only the single dimension/issue thinkers could balance the proven good/gain against some (still) fictitious danger/threat they may, just may, be able to stop panicking about a non-problem and think rationally!Now to the extremists and crazies burning down cell sites in the UK. Right now all the 5G systems being installed are using the same/similar frequencies to 3/4G and wifi hubs! But all microwave links and hubs, satellite broadcast, links and services and radar systems are in the frequency domains they worry about. And I think we can safely say that none of this magically created and propagated CV-19!So, how’s the down-side of their actions working out? They are most likely killing people! The loss of cell sites will prevent 999 calls, delay ambulances and fire service dispatch and control, and worse, disable sectors of the national emergency services network!How did all this madness get started? The rantings of a deranged, ignorant, crazy in the USA supposing to be a scientific expert appears to be the point of nucleation. So, in the home of the brave and land of the paranoid; where ‘Mary on FaceBook’ is an authority on everything and must be believed, where science has little or no value, until there is a pandemic or a war that is, the movement started a social media campaign and the planet wide spread of another crazy meme got underway.Sad to say that all this has now been picked up by uneducated vandals in the UK. But don’t worry! Next month they will be chasing the next big threat! Watch alsoThe Future Now Show5G with Peter Cochranehttps://clubofamsterdam.com/2020/06/15/5g/ Recommended Book Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing Worldby Brian Walker, David Salt Increasingly, cracks are appearing in the capacity of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes to provide the goods and services that sustain our planet’s well-being. The response from most quarters has been for “more of the same” that created the situation in the first place: more control, more intensification, and greater efficiency. “Resilience thinking” offers a different way of understanding the world and a new approach to managing resources. It embraces human and natural systems as complex entities continually adapting through cycles of change, and seeks to understand the qualities of a system that must be maintained or enhanced in order to achieve sustainability. It explains why greater efficiency by itself cannot solve resource problems and offers a constructive alternative that opens up options rather than closing them down. In Resilience Thinking, scientist Brian Walker and science writer David Salt present an accessible introduction to the emerging paradigm of resilience. The book arose out of appeals from colleagues in science and industry for a plainly written account of what resilience is all about and how a resilience approach differs from current practices. Rather than complicated theory, the book offers a conceptual overview along with five case studies of resilience thinking in the real worlad. It is an engaging and important work for anyone interested in managing risk in a complex world. The Animal Communicator Anna Breytenbach  What if you could talk to animals and have them talk back to you? Anna Breytenbach has dedicated her life to communication. She sends messages to animals through pictures and thoughts, and receives messages back! Anna can feel the scars hidden under a monkeys fur or turn a snarling leopard into a contented cat. ENHANCING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMANS, OTHER ANIMALS AND THE NATURAL WORLD Human and animal communication creates a valuable bridge between human and non-human animals. By connecting with our intuition, we can engage in meaningful dialogue and remember how to hear the subtle messages from those whose space we share in our lives and our natural environment. Coming from a place of respect and reverence for all life, we can learn to understand our wilder relatives, honour their truths and live in greater harmony. Anna’s role is communication, guidance and mentoring. She is based in the Western Cape, South Africa and offers workshops in various locations as well as consulting via phone and email for local and international clients. The goals of any consultations, public talks, animal communication workshops or nature retreats are increased awareness, empathy, compassion and mutual understanding. Climate Change Success Story: Sustainable Rubber By Seow Lye Lok, SingaporeCurrently in full-time employment with a local medical school as a media engagement specialist and research communication editor. Southeast Asia is responsible for 90 per cent of global natural rubber production, but the industry faces significant social and environmental challenges. World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a global, CEO-led organization of over 200 leading businesses working together to accelerate the transition to a sustainable world. We help make our member companies more successful and sustainable by focusing on the maximum positive impact for shareholders, the environment and societies. Our member companies come from all business sectors and all major economies, representing a combined revenue of more than USD $8.5 trillion and 19 million employees. Our global network of almost 70 national business councils gives our members unparalleled reach across the globe. Since 1995, WBCSD has been uniquely positioned to work with member companies along and across value chains to deliver impactful business solutions to the most challenging sustainability issues. Together, we are the leading voice of business for sustainability: united by our vision of a world where more than 9 billion people are all living well and within the boundaries of our planet, by 2050. What is sustainable rubber? Rubber is one of the world’s most widely used materials, but irresponsible farming methods have led to deforestation and human rights abuses as the sector has grown. Could there be a better way? Eco-Business explores the potential for sustainable natural rubber. Bouncy, elastic, compressible and moldable — the unique properties of natural rubber make it one of the most widely used materials, found in products from pencil erasers and birthday balloons to condoms and protective gloves.Today nearly 50 per cent of every auto tire and 100 per cent of all aircraft tires are made of natural rubber. Even the invention of synthetic rubber and rubber-like plastics has not stunted demand for this natural material made from a milky sap known as latex, harvested from a tree native to the Amazon region, the Brazilian rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis). In the last two decades, demand for natural rubber, 85 per cent of which is grown in Southeast Asia, has been increasing at a rate of 5 per cent a year.However, over the centuries since rubber plantations took root, life has not become much better for smallholder farmers, who produce more than 80 per cent of the crop worldwide. In Thailand, the world’s biggest rubber exporter, the country’s 2 million rubber farmers, many of them migrant labour from poorer neighbouring countries, earn as little as 200 baht (US$6) a day, and the use of methamphetamine is common as workers are pressured to harvest at ever faster speeds.Meanwhile tropical forests are being lost at an alarming rate as they are cleared to make way for rubber plantations, threatening biodiversity in the world’s most species-rich regions. “As global demand for rubber products shows no sign of slowing, models of ‘business as usual’ scenarios have predicted major habitat conversion to rubber plantations at a possible further five million hectares globally by 2024,” says Vina Dharmarajah, Asia director of Birdlife International.As consumers and the companies that buy rubber grow more discerning about rubber’s environmental and social impacts, so the pressure builds on the industry to produce sustainable natural rubber (SNR), grown in a way that protects forests while meeting rising demand for the commodity.Eco-Business looks at how rubber can be grown sustainably, who’s buying SNR, and how to build the movement for sustainable rubber cultivation. 1. The impact of rubber farming in Southeast Asia Farming rubber sustainably is complex and expensive, and requires an overhaul of traditional farming practices.Deforestation has historically been driven by high rubber prices, which is why it is critical that farmers increase yield to ensure that, when prices rise again, increased rubber production does not come at a cost for forests.Unsustainably-managed rubber plantations can create severe air pollution if, to clear land quickly and cheaply, it is slashed and burned, which has a major impact on forest flora and fauna.Due to the heavy use of herbicides to clear the land to manage the risk of snake bites, animal species that depend on the destroyed plants quickly succumb too. Furthermore, rain erodes the exposed earth, deteriorating the soil quality and exacerbating crop growth problems.Rubber trees are susceptible to blight. Scientists have cautionedthat a single spore of South American leaf blight reaching Southeast Asia could wipe out a substantial portion of the industry. 2. How can rubber be grown sustainably? The process for cultivating natural rubber sustainability involves a few key steps, from land preparation to planting and harvesting.To avoid the negative effects of expanding rubber plantations, land use planning should be based on a solid understanding of rubber farming constraints and their ecological impacts. Local governments and research institutes can use remote sensing studies as a reference point to promote sustainable rubber cultivation.Before establishing a plantation, growers need to obtain land use permission from indigenous communities who live on or near the land, a process the United Nations Permanent Forum on Indigenous Issues defines as free, prior and informed consent (FPIC).It takes about seven years for a rubber tree to mature before it can produce rubber for tapping, and how the crop is planted, harvested and cleared affects the sustainability of the plantation. For example, intercropping rubber with timber trees and medicinal plants counters the ill effects of monoculturing.In October 2018, an independent platform for sustainable rubber cultivation, the Global Platform for Sustainable Natural Rubber (GPNSR), was set up with support from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development to improve the sustainability of the natural rubber value chain.GPSNR director Stefano Savi, who joined the organisation six months ago from the palm oil industry’s lead certifier, Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), said: “We work with players in the natural rubber industry, as well as NGOs to help a move towards sustainably produced natural rubber. GPSNR will consider the people, communities and natural resources touched by natural rubber production, in a global and truly multi-stakeholder effort to drive improvements in the socio-economic and environmental performance of the natural rubber value chain.”In a nutshell, sustainable rubber farming makes rubber cultivation profitable while minimising harm for people and the planet, and GPSNR aims to chart a course for the rubber industry that avoids the problems that have blighted the agricultural sector: deforestation, land grabbing and human rights violations. 3. What are the barriers to joining the sustainable natural rubber movement? Many of the problems with growing a responsible natural rubber sector come from the higher initial cost of growing rubber trees sustainably. It costs more to pay fair wages that buffer farmers from market uncertainties. But over the long term, higher pay ensures that farmers do not switch to other crops such as palm oil, or resort to unsustainable agricultural farming methods that lead to lower yield and greater environmental impact.Currently, rubber supply is higher than demand, which gives buyers the upper hand — including tire companies that want to reduce their environmental footprints. Some of the founding members of the GPSNR, including German carmaker BMW and tire manufacturer Bridgestone, are already leading industry-wide efforts to kick-start the SNR movement. 4. Where can I find sustainable rubber products? The low market prices paid to rubber tappers, plantation workers and smallholder farmers make it difficult for them to support themselves and their families. By supporting ethical procurement suppliers, companies may be paying a premium, but will help ensure the long-term sustainability in rubber supply and market stability. An early way to address the problem came through associations such as the Fair Rubber Association and World Wide Fund for Nature, which advocated for sustainable rubber production. GPSNR has emerged out of a desire from multiple stakeholders to define and implement a sustainable natural rubber system. 5. Who’s using sustainable rubber? By joining GPSNR, which is working on standards to protect biodiversity and water resources, improve yields, and increase supply chain transparency and traceability, rubber-buying businesses can get access to a broad network of resources and contacts for practical sustainability solutions for their supply chains.Some companies have already started on their journey towards sustainable rubber. GPSNR member rubber producers have committed to sustainable production, and a number of buyers have made ambitious pledges to source sustainable rubber. In 2017, General Motors became the first car firm to commit to responsible rubber sourcing. BMW and Toyota have since done the same.Tire manufacturer Michelin — the world’s largest buyer of natural rubber — was the first tire maker to commit to responsible rubber sourcing in 2016. Competitors Pirelli, Goodyear, Sumitomo, Continental, Yokohama, Hankook, Toyo Tires and Bridgestone have since followed.Bridgestone Americas’ senior counsel, environmental, health safety and sustainability, Andy Thompson, says his company has worked hard over the last year to understand how its suppliers are living up to sustainability standards. “Sustainable natural rubber across the value chain will come through collaboration with responsible partners within the value chain and civil society,” he says. Futurist Portrait: Ken Dychtwald Dr. Ken Dychtwald has assembled a highly skilled and enthusiastic team of seasoned professionals to work with the world’s leading corporations. The team provides innovative solutions for customizable presentations, a wide range of landmark research initiatives, the production of high-impact publications and media projects, and proven business-building tools for financial professionals. Individually and collectively, the Age Wave team brings to each project a wealth of knowledge and experience about the social, lifestyle, marketing, and financial implications of an emerging mature marketplace. Their talents and experience span a broad range of industry sectors from consumer goods to healthcare, manufacturing to retail, nutrition to financial services, advertising to media, and more. Over the past 35+ years, Dr. Ken Dychtwald has emerged as North America’s foremost visionary and original thinker regarding the lifestyle, marketing, health care, and workforce implications of the age wave. Ken is a psychologist, gerontologist, and best-selling author of 16 books on aging-related issues, including Bodymind; Age Wave: The Challenges and Opportunities of an Aging Society; Age Power: How the 21st Century Will Be Ruled by the New Old; The Power Years: A User’s Guide to the Rest of Your Life; Healthy Aging; Workforce Crisis: How to Beat the Coming Shortage of Skills and Talent; Gideon’s Dream: A Tale of New Beginnings and, most recently, A New Purpose: Redefining Money, Family, Work, Retirement, and Success. He is currently writing two new books, What Retirees Want: A Holistic View of Life’s Third Age (to be released July 15, 2020) and The Sorcerer’s Apprentice: Lessons from an Irregular Life. He was the executive producer and host of the highly rated/acclaimed PBS documentary, The Boomer Century: 1946–2046. Since 1986, Ken has been the Founder and CEO of Age Wave, a firm created to guide companies and government groups in product/service development for boomers and mature adults. His client list has included over half the Fortune 500, and his explorations and innovative solutions have fertilized and catalyzed a broad spectrum of industry sectors—from pharmaceuticals and medical devices, to automotive design and retail merchandising, to financial planning and health insurance. He has served as a fellow of the World Economic Forum and was a featured speaker at two White House Conferences on Aging. Ken has twice received the distinguished American Society on Aging Award for outstanding national leadership, and American Demographics honored him as the single most influential marketer to baby boomers over the past quarter century. His article in the Harvard Business Review, “It’s Time to Retire Retirement,” was awarded the prestigious McKinsey Award, tying for first place with the legendary Peter Drucker. PBS Next Avenue named him a 2016 Influencer in Aging for his work pushing beyond traditional boundaries and changing our understanding of what it means to grow older. Ken was honored by Investment Advisor as one of the 35 most influential thought leaders in the financial services industry over the past 35 years. Ken and his wife, Maddy, recently received the Esalen Prize for their outstanding contributions to advancing the human potential of aging men and women worldwide. He was also awarded the Inspire Award from in the International Council on Active Aging for his exceptional and lasting contributions to the active-aging industry and for his efforts to make a difference in the lives of older adults globally. During his career, Ken has addressed more than two million people worldwide in his speeches to corporate, association, social service, and government groups. His strikingly accurate predictions and innovative ideas are regularly featured in leading print and electronic media worldwide and have garnered more than ten billion media impressions. In addition to his role at Age Wave, he is deeply involved in numerous activities for the public good including serving as a member of the XPRIZE Board of Trustees. How the Age Wave Will Transform Health, Longevity & Medicine with Ken Dychtwald printable version

Club of Amsterdam Journal, April 2004, Issue 22

Content Q&A with Bernard Vast about the future of Healthcare News about the Future Research Information Centre The Future of the European Union Questionnaire about ‘the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy?’ Recommended Book Club of Amsterdam Experts Group: Patrick Crehan Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Q&A with Bernard Vast Bernard Vast, M.D., Healthcare ICT Specialist, 2Cure Club of Amsterdam: The subtitle of the next event is “The patient empowered”. How will technology empower the citizen/patient?Bernard Vast: It already does. Internet is currently the major provider of disease- and health-related information to patients. Many doctors still have to get used to patients entering the consulting room with a fresh printout. This doesn’t mean that information alone will bridge the knowledge gap between a patient and an experienced professional; you don’t bring your TV to a repair centre because you know it all yourself. This inherent gap is something the medical profession and patients will have to work out; Dr. Oderwald – one of the speakers – will elaborate also on this. Will Internet be the only or most important enabler in the future?Bernard Vast: The impact of Internet on information society can hardly be overestimated, but in a wider view patients get more knowledgeable through all media. They start to realise that healthcare should be a service industry, serviceable to them; after all, they pay the healthcare institution. They start to know that a healthcare insurance company has a contract with them that obliges the insurance to deliver, not put them on a waiting list. It’s public knowledge by now that in many other European countries waiting lists do not exist. Prof.Dr. Guus van Montfort will also address this topic. How about the more technological side of medicine, are there emerging technologies that could change the landscape of healthcare?Bernard Vast: Progress in genetics and probably also nanotechnology will gradually yield results. But to my opinion a currently underestimated emerging technology is that of bio-energetics, a.k.a. quantum-biology. This is the field where quantum-mechanics meets biology and medicine and it’s exciting. All matter (dead and living) is – on the smallest level – subordinate to quantum-mechanical laws. Current microprocessor technology has made possible affordable devices that measure the body’s sub-atomic activities and present conclusions. Devices like the Vegatest (Germany) or the QXCI (USA) are progressively used by for instance homoeopathic doctors and even laymen. This could very well revolutionise diagnosis and therapy. We might see the day where your doctor scans your body and reads the diagnosis, like dr. ‘Bones’ McCoy in Star Trek. Bernard Vast is the host of our Club of Amsterdam Event about‘the future of Healthcare & Technology on Wednesday, April 28, 18:30-22:15! about the future of Healthcare Cross-border healthcare after EU expands may prove problematic, warns WHO official 02 April 2004. The migration of patients as a result of the European Union’s forthcoming expansion could create problems for some countries that are unprepared, a World Health Organisation official told AFP on Friday.“We will undoubtedly see more patients seeking treatment in neighbouring regions,” Nata Menabde, director of the division of country support of the WHO’s regional office for Europe.“But some countries are not ready for that and are ill prepared for the implications of cross-border healthcare,” she said during a two-day conference of European health ministers in Prague.Freedom of movement to seek treatment abroad would necessitate the development of electronic patient records, for example, while the issue of the transfer of financial resources would have to be addressed, she said. eEurope Awards for eHealth – 2004 “Empowering the Citizen through eHealth Tools and Services”The eEurope Awards for eHealth – 2004 are to be presented at the High-Level European eHealth Conference and Exhibition, in Cork, Ireland 5-6 May 2004. News about the Future WiMAXWorldwide Interoperability for Microwave AccessRepresenting a significant step forward in catalyzing the growth and future viability of the global fixed broadband wireless market, leading equipment and component manufacturers have formed the Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) Forum. As a non-profit organization, the objective of WiMAX is to promote wide-scale deployments of point-to-multipoint networks operating between 2.5 and 66 GHz by leveraging new global consensus standards and certifying the interoperability of various products and technologies from multiple manufacturers. WiMAX is promising long distance connection speeds of 70 megabits per second data rate over a 30 mile radius. Intel President and COO Paul Otellini: “The wireless industry is evolving from a web of independent networks into a single, integrated wireless network with multiple standards, and no single standard is sufficient anymore. There won’t be a battle of competing technologies. It will be a requirement that Wi-Fi, WiMAX, and 3G coexist; and that coexistence is going to enable a host of exciting new applications and business models.” Otellini predicts a WiMAX “inflection point” in the 2006-2008 timeframe similar to what happened with Wi-Fi over the past few years, and says WiMAX capability would be available in notebook computers by 2006, followed by handsets in 2007. MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT Peer-to-peer technology for content distributionBy Balázs Bakos, Jukka K. Nurminen; Nokia Research Center Peer-to-peer computing is a technology that uses the resources of many connected devices to either distribute large computing tasks or distribute content widely without the need for central servers. Up to now the successful peer-to-peer applications have been running on the fixed Internet, mainly on PCs. But as mobile phones and other small devices are gaining computing power, we started to question how the peer-to-peer activities could be scaled down to such devices. We wanted to see what is possible with the current technology and what are the most important limitations that have to be overcome.In order to understand what peer-to-peer computing would mean to mobile phone users we established the PerPhone project along with the Budapest Universtiy of Technology and Economics.Ubiquitous computing, location-awareness, and sensors coupled with phones will potentially make a large number of sensory data available. This data could be potentially used to provide some new services to users.The objective of the project is to create ideas and demonstrators of novel applications arising from the clustered use of a large number of mobile phones. In parallel, the project will create a better understanding of the technical requirements for phones and networks to support clustered, pervasive applications. Concrete results will include software prototypes, measurement results, reports, and publications.During the project period the university department can gain significant knowledge about open software platforms for mobile phones. The competence shall be utilized in curriculum development, so that a new course can be started or an existing software engineering course can be extended at the faculty of Electrical Engineering and Informatics at Budapest University of Technology and Economics. Research Information Centre Michel Claessens, acting head of the Communications unit at the Research DG, is confident the new service will help researchers and the general public better understand the European Union’s activities in this field. “For many people, the goings on in the European Union and the Commission are a bit of a mystery,” he admits. “What we hope to do with upgraded communication tools like the Research Information Centre is give people more insight into the research projects and priorities being supported by the Research DG.”The research information centre gives on-line visitors enhanced access to hundreds of articles and stories from several of the Research DG’s editorial sources, including RTD info, Research Headlines, ‘Success Stories’ and more. Articles have been carefully indexed under 14 themes and up to 70 sub-themes to help visitors find information on a specific research topic. The Future of the European Union The Future of the European Union – Debate Futurum is the interinstitutional site relating to the future of the European Union in general and the process of drafting the European Constitution in particular. This portal site, which is managed by the European Commission, is a source of reference and information on the debate.The objectives of Futurum are to renew and publish as many documents and links as possible about the process of drafting the Constitution, provide the information tools needed to understand it and give civil society the means to make its voice heard in a real European public forum. Questionnaire about ‘the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy? At our recent Club of Amsterdam evening about ‘the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy?‘ we asked the audience some questions: 1. Do you believe Hydrogen Technology will solve our energy problems? 55 % yes39 % no 2. Is Hydrogen a safe energy carrier? 86 % yes11 % no 3. Would you be willing to have less income in exchange for renewable energy? 83 % yes17 % no 4. Should Europe be leading in using renewable energies? 97 % yes3 % no 5. Do you prefer that The Netherlands should first be economically competitive before supporting renewable energies? 25 % yes75 % no 6. Are you already active reducing your energy consumption? 61 % yes39 % no 7. Would you buy a ‘Hydrogen’ car? 78 % yes17 % no Recommended Book Geographic Information Systems and Health Applicationsby Omar A. Khan, Ric Skinner The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in the health sector is an idea whose time has come. The current applications of GIS in health are diverse and extensive. The present GIS environment is heavily driven by technology and such an approach is indeed logical for the most part. However, the needs of less-developed countries in utilizing the concepts and technologies of mapping should not be neglected in the continuing evolution of GIS. Supporter of the Club of Amsterdam event about ‘the future of Education & Learning’ on Wednesday, February 18, 2004 is: Club of Amsterdam Experts Group: Patrick Crehan Patrick Crehan Crehan, Kusano & Associates We have recently seen strikes by scientists in France over cuts in the funding of research positions. The most surprising thing about this is that it has not happened sooner and that it has not happened in other countries of Europe. Scientists spend just as long in education as people from domains such as law, engineering and medicine, yet science is different in that it is not a profession but a highly fragmented group of relatively closed communities devoted to highly specialised disciplines. The members of these communities are the product of a system of apprenticeship that passes though several phases – graduate studies ending in a PhD, a series of post-doc positions and eventually a junior position as a researcher or university lecturer that marks the start of a track to tenure. The post-doc part of the scientific career is based on an annual round of positions allocated by an arbitrary but competitive system. It is impossible for an individual to plan in this period. A new post-doc position usually means a change of address – often to a different country. Remuneration takes little or no account of experience. Limits are imposed on the length of time a position can be held by one person as well as on the age of candidates. The system is one of apprenticeship. Researchers get no formal training in how to carry out research. They carry out tasks that are useful to the laboratory in which they are placed. They observe and try to learn from what other colleagues do and get by on their own. Many scientists pursue post-docs for years on end. They rely on chance to land them in a good environment or provide them with a good supervisor. They are treated as ‘visitors’ not members of staff. They forgo pension contributions, bonus pay, raises and opportunities for personal growth through the assumption of responsibility. Eventually when they get their tenure track position they are engaged to ‘teach’ on the basis of their ability to carry out ‘research’ and they get no teacher training or other professional development. If promoted to ‘head of department’ this is based once more on an ability to carry out research although the primary function of the department is to teach. A university head of department will get no management training and will never have a chance to formally develop skills in strategic planning or in the development of human resources. Academic staff are often required to build links with industry. Having no experience in business they are asked to support the creation of spin-off companies and professors may be assigned to boards of new companies. Scientists in academia are required to do all of these tasks at once without any preparation and from an organisation whose primary function is to teach. Scientists are required to be supermen! No wonder few young people want a career in science? The member states of the European Union attach great importance to the role of science in developing new business and improving the competitiveness of old. The US has 8.08 scientists per thousand workers and Japan has 9.14. The European Union has an average of 5.7 scientists per 1,000 workers and this will drop to 3.5 after the accession of 10 new members states. Given the current conditions in Europe is this any surprise? Science needs to organise itself as a profession. It needs to ensure that its members are treated with respect and that their investment in undergraduate studies, graduate studies and peripatetic post-doc positions pays off. It needs to ensure that its members have opportunities for personal and intellectual development at all stages of their career. When will scientists be able to plan and structure a career in science instead of drifting like fruit-pickers from one seasonal harvest the next? I wonder if the strikes in France are the start of a process of change? Club of Amsterdam Upcoming Events April 28, 2004 the future of Healthcare & Technology May 19, 2004 the future of Architecture June 23, 2004 the future of Culture & Religion

Club of Amsterdam Journal, March 2004, Issue 21

Content Q&A with Kees Daey Ouwens About the future of Energy News about the Future Smart Cards: Accessibility and Social Inclusion International Education ERICarts-Institute Recommended Book Q&A with Rob van Hattum Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Q&A with Kees Daey Ouwens Kees Daey Ouwens, Professor, TU Eindhoven Club of Amsterdam: Hydrogen is widely expected to be the energy solution for our future. Is this in your opinion a trendy view or are there solid reasons to support this?Kees Daey Ouwens: A prediction of future energy supply is always difficult. Looking back and considering the scenario’s made about 1970, hardly any prediction has been proven to be true. This holds also for hydrogen. The main problems for hydrogen are the production and the storage. Will we produce it from fossil fuels or from biomass? Other routes (e.g. by electrolysis of electricity produced by wind mills or solar cells) will be too expensive. However, if we produce hydrogen from fossil fuels, what will we gain? Of course this route can be made free of the emission of carbon dioxide. However, it will be costly. What are the key factors to agree on a sustainable, renewable energy strategy?Kees Daey Ouwens: The key factors for a sustainable energy strategy are: emphsis on the efficient use of energy; this way the use of energy can be reduced by a factor two or three. recycling of materials; recycling cost a lot less energy in comparison with the production of new materials use of natural gas; relatively low emission of carbon dioxide the use of hydro powerthe use of biomassthe use of solar and wind energythe use of other sources like wave energy, geothermal energy and temperature differences at seaThe sequence of the items represent the importance also. An intensive program (policy!) of research and market introduction is needed to realize such a sustainable energy supply; it is process of change. What are the main challenges we have to face the coming 30 years?Kees Daey Ouwens: The main challenge is if we are able to execute a radical program (policy). Do we supply the money needed for research and demonstration? Do we accept the change? We do not have to change our energy infrastucture and life does not become more expensive. However, any change causes always a large resistence. In this respect is the introduction of wind energy a good example. Hubert Kees Daey Ouwens, Hubert Dubbelman & Rob van Hattum speak at our Club of Amsterdam Event about‘the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy?’ on Wednesday, March 31, 18:30-22:15! About the future of energy Bottling the hydrogen genie by Frederick E. Pinkerton and Brian G. WickeAs the dawn of a new century approached, a transportation revolution was brewing. Visionary inventors and small companies, inspired by new technologies and driven by public outcry for relief from urban pollution, set out to remake an entire industry. Their goal was nothing less ambitious than the creation of a completely new transportation infrastructure Fuel Cells on the Way for Mobile Devices Medis Technologies is partnering with Kensington Technology, a maker and distributor of computer accessories, to bring fuel cells to mobile devices such as cell phones, digital cameras, MP3 players, handheld gaming devices, PDAs and smartphones. The fuel cell is an electro-chemical device that converts the chemical energy of a fuel, such as hydrogen, ethanol or methanol, into electrical energy and water. This is a much cleaner technology than what’s found in current batteries, and it also promises to greatly increase the amount of power available to users. News about the Future MOSTiTECHA new sophisticated robot will be able to guard your home around the clock and keep you informed on what’s happening in the house through your handset even when you are far away. “This is a whole new concept gadget, which will set a new trend of home networking, because this device can move around the home,” an SK Telecom [Korea] official said. The 50-centimeter tall and 12-kilogram machine was developed through partnerships with venture start-up Mostitech after years of intensive work.In case of emergencies, like fire or lethal gas leakage, the robot’s sensors will detect any potential dangers and the camera-eyed robot will be programmed to snap pictures of the situation and send them with a message to a designated person’s cell phone. Also, when unexpected visitors enter a home, the robot will transmit pictures of them coupled with contingency messages. To gather further information, the recipient can order the robot to survey the suspicious situation or persons through a cell phone or Internet. Mostitech president Park Sang-hoon said the company will add face-recognition functionality to the robot so that it can guard a home with even better precision. The battery-operated robot, which moves around on wheels and recharges itself when its batteries run low, will also function as a caretaker and house sitter for kids, as the robot can even read a book. Swissmemory USB Victorinox “It’s the future of personal storage. Your own portable hard drive right in your hands. Small, powerful and easier to use than your house keys. Store your business cards, family- or business project photos, mp3 audio files, video files, anything you want. Plug the SWISSMEMORY USB Victorinox into any USB port and see it appear as a removable mass storage device under all supported Operating Systems.” Smart Cards: Accessibility and Social Inclusion National Smart Card Project [UK] Consumers want user friendly systems which have the appropriate level of security, but are simple to use. Local authorities want to optimise their service level, and to maximise their market penetration. If local authorities do not understand the needs of their consumers, they are likely to find consumers reluctant to use smart card based systems. Cardholder identification should involve the consent of the user who may wish to withdraw their consent at a later date. Authentication provides the user with a secure way to prove their identity during a transaction, but does not necessarily mean that they are authorised to access a specific service. People with special needs include older people, children, people whose primary language is not English, as well as people with disabilities. However the introduction of smart card systems offers exciting possibilities for making life easier for all these groups, if their needs are considered before new systems are introduced. The Disability Discrimination Act requires local authorities to give consideration to needs of people with disabilities. The take-up of smart card based services will be affected by the users’ perceptions of:  the confidentiality of any data on the card or in a related computer system  ease of use confidence that there is a simple system for handling lost or stolen cards … more International Education International Education : the only cement for any Transatlantic BridgeBy Franck Biancheri Think of this seemingly stupid sentence :‘the world is getting globalized!’. It does contain something not stupid though as it is true that in today’s world all local issues are now interconnected. From Irak’s war to jobs outsourcing, from scientific research to religious trends, everything happening on our small planet is now directly echoed in almost every parts of it. Did I say ‘echoed’? Yes, I did say ‘echoed’; and that is where international education represents a crucial investment for all societies: each event, each phenomenon which happens somewhere does affect all of us directly or indirectly, but we only hear its echo most of the time. We do not have a direct vision or understanding of the event. Therefore we need to be able to put it into a larger picture, to ‘rebuild’ its meaning in order to know how it may affect us, what to think o it and how we should react. Without such a know-how, leadership will be a lethal succession of mistakes; and jobs will keep on going to the country next door (which maybe on the other side of the planet). … more ERICarts-Institute European Institute for Comparative Cultural Research (ERICarts)The ERICarts-Institute is organised as an independent, trans-national body, it conducts comparative research and monitoring in all cultural domains, including but not limited to developments in fields such as cultural policies, the state of arts professions, culture industries and the media, arts and heritage management and arts education. In addition, the Institute encourages cultural and scientific dialogues in Europe and around the world, through publications, Internet-services, conferences and other events. Projects:All Talents Count:Pilot survey for the INCP Working Group on Cultural Diversity and GlobalisationThe goal of policies, programmes and strategies in support of cultural diversity is to achieve and maintain harmonious relations among all sections of society by recognising and accepting differences. This goal can only be achieved when, among other things, all groups and individuals in society have equal access to a diversity of ideas, cultural goods and resources, education, decision-making processes, etc. Pyramid or Pillars: unveiling the status of women in arts and media professions in EuropePyramids or Pillars presents the results of a three year European research project sponsored under the EU 4th medium term action plan for equal opportunities between men and women and by the German Federal Ministry for Family, Seniors, Women and Youth.Co-ordinated by ERICarts and the ZfKf, the project brought together researchers from all corners of Europe. They participated in a programme of national studies and empirical stocktaking whose results unveil, for the first time, the (often underestimated) representation of women in cultural labour markets, their inadequate presence in decision-making positions in culture and media institutions, the degree to which they receive public recognition for their work and other key questions regarding training and professional development.Pyramids or Pillars brings transparency about the position of female artists or media practitioners at a time when key political decisions are being made about the fate of equal opportunity programmes and new concepts of mainstreaming introduced throughout Europe. Creative EuropeBoth the UNESCO and the Council of Europe exercises on culture and development (“Our Creative Diversity” and “In from the Margins” respectively) recognised the central role of creativity, not only in intellectual life, but in the development of the economy, ethics and civil society. Creative Europe, which could be considered part of an unofficial follow-up process to these reports, recognises that the conditions framing a climate for innovation are changing and responsibility for cultural policy is shifting towards joint action on the part of public, private and non-profit actors on local, regional, national and international levels; possibly leading to a change of paradigm for “creativity governance” (or management). The question is whether mainstream cultural policies and training programmes have succeeded in reflecting these changing conditions for cultural innovation in Europe.The main purpose of Creative Europe is to examine these changing conditions, address some of the trends and contradictions facing decision-makers, educators, funders etc, examine the points of “convergence” between these different actors and their activities (under the umbrella of creativity governance in Europe) and to situate the role of foundations in this picture. Recommended Book Tomorrow’s Energy: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and the Prospects for a Cleaner Planetby Peter Hoffmann, Tom Harkin (Foreword)The word hydrogen conjures images of devastating bombs and burning zeppelins (the Hindenburg) for most of us, but it inspires visionaries like Peter Hoffmann to picture clear skies and safer roads. Hoffmann’s book Tomorrow’s Energy traces the history of the volatile gas and explores options for its use as fuel. Though the author can’t avoid using some technical language, his writing should still appeal well beyond the community of automotive and power-plant engineers. His coverage, though fairly balanced, tends toward the positive efforts made by government, corporations, environmentalists, and scientists to promote hydrogen as a clean, relatively safe, and potentially cheap alternative to carbon-heavy fuels. Party-line Greens may gasp at some of the suggested schemes, which include using limited nuclear power to generate hydrogen from water. But Hoffmann convincingly assures the reader that ultimately, the planet will be better off this way. Many will be surprised at how far hydrogen has advanced since serious research restarted during the 1970s fuel crisis: the range of cars, planes, and power networks using the gas for power storage is impressive and underreported. Though he makes his case for hydrogen as a means of powering our lives, Hoffmann also shows off its uses in medicine, agriculture, metallurgy, and other fields. Using economic data, he shows that we can expect to live in a hydrogen economy sometime midcentury; if so, we can all breathe a collective, CO2-laden sigh of relief. – Rob Lightner Supporter of the Club of Amsterdam event about ‘the future of Education & Learning‘ on Wednesday, February 18, 2004 is: Q&A with Rob van Hattum Rob van Hattum, Head of Science Programmes, VPRO television Club of Amsterdam: Commercial fuel cells powered by hydrogen are just now being introduced into the market for home, office and industrial use. Is hydrogen the start of new energy solutions or is it the key solution for the future?Rob van Hattum: Hydrogen provides a possibility to use all kind of different energy sources. It is a universal carrier and fits very well in an ecletric society. For that reason Geoffrey Ballard introduced the word ‘Hydricity’. I believe using hydrogen systems is the key solution to a sustainable future energy system (unless we find another way to store huge amounts of electricity very efficiently and quickly). It will start gradually, like oil once started gradually. In fact we have been burning hydrogen all the way, wood, coal, oil, gas…..what we burn is hydrogen. The fuel cell will change the energy system from inefficient burning (like combustion) into efficient electrochemistry. So are we living at the edge of a new era? I think we are but it will take some time before we see it…. Romano Prodi, the president of the European Commission, has unveiled the EU’s $2 billion commitment to a renewable hydrogen-based energy economy. What is Europe’s role compared to the US & Asia in the context of the ‘Hydrogen Economy’?Rob van Hattum: Europe has serious intentions. In fact was Bush’ announcement in the state of the union in 2003 providing 1.3 billion dollars to start the research for hydrogen a reaction on Europe’s idea’s to start the hydrogen economy. European car makers (like BMW, Mercedes) are in fact doing research on hydrogen for many years. What are the key factors for a successful, sustainable introduction of Hydrogen?Rob van Hattum: Create Public Awareness about the impact of hydrogen energy systems and a hydrogen economy, safety awareness.Safe hydrogen storage research.Set up large pilot hydrogen production plants in combination with sustanable energy source (windpark, solarplants, Biomass plants…..etc). To show the publuc that clean fuel production is possible. Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 October 28, 2003 the future of Food & Biotech November 27, 2003 the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry January 28, 2004 the future of the European Knowledge Society February 18, 2004 the future of Education & Learning March 31, 2004 the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy? April 28, 2004 the future of Healthcare & Technology May 19, 2004 the future of Architecture June 23, 2004 the future of Culture & Religion

Final report on the the Green Paper

by European Commission “Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply” The Green Paper on the security of energy supply, adopted by the Commission more than a year ago, opened up a debate on energy policy unprecedented in 30 years. In most of the Member States this debate revived discussion on national options in the energy field. It was used for reference in some third countries, like the United States (during the preparation of the Bush energy plan), Japan and Russia. The Barcelona European Council of March 2002 notes in its conclusions “the intention of the Commission to present the report on the security of supplies based on the results of the debate generated by the Commission’s Green Paper on Security of Energy Supplies, in view of its next meeting in Seville”. Full paper available as a *.pdf file (233KB): click here

A new look at the hydrogen economy

by Kas Hemmes, Projectleader, VG2 the greening of gasTPM Coordinates ‘The Greening of Gas’ Project [VG2] To mix hydrogen into the domestic gas network: that is the challenge that those taking part in the EET-subsidized project, ‘The Greening of Gas’ have set themselves. Project coordinator Dr Kas Hemmes (Associate Professor with the Energy and Industry section) describes the many technical and administrative difficulties of this promising idea. Under the Kyoto Climate Treaty, the Netherlands is expected to reduce its emission of greenhouse gases by six per cent (compared to 1990 levels). The main greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal are NOx (nitrogen oxides), SO2 (sulphur dioxide) and CO2 (carbon dioxide). The idea of using hydrogen as a supplementary energy source emerged in the 1970s. Hydrogen has a significant advantage in that its combustion produces only water and no greenhouse gases. “Because the environmental benefits are so obvious, some people do not understand why the idea was not implemented a long time ago,” states Kas Hemmes. “Perhaps they think we can just dig a well and pump hydrogen out. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Pure hydrogen does not occur naturally. It has to be derived from other energy sources such as natural gas, coal or biomass. It can also be extracted from water by means of electrolysis.” Hemmes, who studied experimental and theoretical physics in Groningen, gained his doctorate in 1986 with his research into magnetic recording. However, he soon became interested in energy research. For fifteen years, he conducted research into fuel cells with the Material Sciences and Engineering department of Delft University of Technology. For the last eighteen months he has been involved in the systems design for a national hydrogen distribution infrastructure and the design of transition processes towards a hydrogen economy. This work has been conducted within TPM as part of the ‘Greening of Gas’ project, financed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science and the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) under the Economy, Ecolgy and Technology (EET) programme. Economic interestsThe use of hydrogen as an energy source is not only hampered by its limited availability. Another problem is that it is difficult to store or trans-port in large quantities. “If we want to use hydrogen on a large scale, there would have to be a network of pipelines covering the entire country,” explains Hemmes. “Needless to say, this would entail a huge investment. Our idea therefore becomes even more attractive: we are investigating the possibility of using the existing gas infrastructure. By mixing hydrogen into the natural gas, at least the transport problem is solved.” Because this ‘new look at the hydro-gen economy’ entails investigating a large number of technical and administrative considerations, the project has been split into two parts. The technical questions are being addressed by the Delft Laboratory for Process Equipment, (API), the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Electrabel, EcoCeramics, the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), Gasunie and the Universities of Groningen and Eindhoven. These partners are concerned with such aspects as fundamental combustion research, the effect of hydrogen/ biogas/natural gas mixtures on pipeline materials, gas turbines and gas-fired engines, research into new burner types, and the safety aspects of transporting and distributing hydrogen-rich gas mixtures. The other part of the project, coordinated by Dr Hemmes, involves TPM working alongside Hoek Loos, the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Schouten Research, Energy + i.d. and the City Of Rotterdam Port Authority (GHR). It is primarily concerned with infrastructural development in the technical, socio-economic and juridical contexts. Research is being conducted into the costs-returns ratio, national and international legislation, and the impact of the liberalization of the gas market. “From the technical perspective, mixing hydrogen with natural gas in the existing network could well prove the best solution, but this does not necessarily mean that it will actually be implemented. There are many factors to be taken into consideration. We live in an era in which economic interests are paramount. Everything must be cost effective and market forces must be allowed to prevail. We are looking at both the demand and supply side of hydrogen/ natural gas mixtures. We are designing a suitable infrastructure and conducting dynamic modelling for the transition process. In the final phase, we hope to implement our ideas in the Rotterdam harbour district.” QualityFirst and foremost, TPM’s part of the project involves investigating existing and potential hydrogen production techniques. These include the ‘non-conventional’ techniques such as extracting hydrogen from biomass. If this is indeed feasible, countless interesting scenarios emerge. “Suppose a group of farmers have a pile of surplus biomass which is serving no other purpose. They could use it to produce hydrogen which they will then add to the gas network, wherever they happen to be. This may seem somewhat far-fetched, but in the new liberalized gas market anyone will be allowed to produce and supply gas, in theory at least. Of course, existing legislation must be observed. Gas must comply with certain quality requirements and must have a certain calorific value, as expressed by the Wobbe index. It is still uncertain whether natural gas to which hydrogen or biogas has been added will meet the quality requirements. If not, it may be appropriate to amend the legislation allowing gas of a different quality to be supplied. At the moment, the standard is the ‘Slochteren norm’, with all domestic gas-burning equipment and most industrial equipment designed, built and regulated accordingly. We simply do not know whether consumers and industrial users will be prepared to convert to new burners and gas turbines, as they were required to do in the 1960s when the Slochteren gas pocket first came ‘on line’.” Consequences for the infrastructureThe addition of hydrogen to gas would not be without consequences for the existing gas infrastructure. Hydrogen has a lower calorific value than natural gas, which means that volumes must be increased. Hydrogen-powered buses in Germany Kas Hemmes gives a brief refresher course in chemistry: “Natural gas is actually methane, or CH4, a com-pound of one part C and two of H2. One part of H2 has roughly one third of the calorific value of CH4. This means that if you add ten per cent hydrogen (by volume) to the natural gas, you have added only three per cent energy value. In order to main-tain the same calorific value, you have to transport a much higher volume of gas. It is not certain whether the existing network of pipes would be able to cope.” Another interesting research question with regard to the infrastructure is where the hydrogen should be physically introduced to the network. Gas is always transported in only one direction along each pipe, whereby the hydrogen can only be added ‘upstream’. This is the major difference between gas and electricity, which in theory can be returned from any point in the network. Conversion lossesThe sub-project ‘Demand-side Analysis of H2/NG Infrastructure’ (NG stands for Natural Gas) is studying the possible applications for the hydrogen/gas mixture. Could consumers use it to fuel a central heating boiler? Would industry be better off, or would the disadvantages outweigh the benefits? “Of course, we want to ensure that there are only advantages,” states Hemmes, “since this would represent a significant motive for getting the process off the ground. For industry, it is extremely important that the use of hydrogen serves to reduce CO2 emissions, as this will enable future economic gains to be made. The Vogtländer Commission, appointed by the Ministry of VROM, favours a system of trading in ’emission rights’. This could prove a valuable and efficient instrument in tack-ling the emission of greenhouse gases. Companies which produce relatively little CO2 could make extra profit by selling their emission rights, their ‘quota’ as it were. This system is particularly interesting for the metals industry and companies such as Corus, which use cokes to convert metal oxides into the finished product, thus producing enormous quantities of CO2.” “In the long term, it seems economically viable for industry to convert, at least partially, to the use of hydrogen/ natural gas mixtures. Unfortunately, this is not the case in the short term. We run up against a paradox. A familiar industrial process whereby hydrogen can be produced from natural gas itself is steam methane reforming. The petrochemicals industry uses this process on a large scale to remove sulphur compounds from crude oil. However, it always entails conversion losses: twenty per cent of the energy is simply lost. In the first instance therefore, if industry wishes to convert to the use of hydrogen, greater quantities of natural gas will be required, which will cost more.” IncentivesIt is therefore extremely important that additional benefits are created for hydrogen mixtures, apart from the reduction in diffuse CO2 emissions. The transition process must include incentives to encourage consumers and industry to adopt the new fuel form. Transition -management and dynamic modelling of transition processes fall within the TPM sphere of expertise. What technical and administrative instruments can serve to promote a government objective such as emissions reduction, and how can one monitor the results? Kas Hemmes suggests one possibility: “If hydrogen is introduced to the main gas net-work, every household and every company in the Netherlands will be able to use it. One of the concepts we are investigating is that of micro-generation. Every building would have a fuel cell powered by hydrogen and producing electricity. Some energy is converted into heat during this process and would normally be lost. In our system, it can be used for heating. The gas is therefore used to the full. Because H2 will already be in the gas, no reformer (a sort of miniature chemical conversion plant) will be required. The fuel cell will filter the hydrogen out, as it were.” Another possible application for the mixture is as an automotive fuel. A 80/20 mixture of hydrogen and natural gas (which is already on the market under the trade name ‘Hythane’) has extremely good combustion properties. It has lower NOx emissions, whereby great environmental gains can be made when used in cars with an internal combustion engine. Moreover, provided good separation techniques become available, the hydrogen can be extracted from the mixture for use in electric cars equipped with fuel cells. Research is also being conducted into possible industrial uses for the CO2 which is a by-product of hydrogen production. This could be used in oil and methane abstraction processes. Path dependencyHemmes concedes one fundamental problem in all this. “Although the addition of hydrogen to the gas net-work does seem to have some major advantages, there is a danger that this approach will lead to ‘path dependency’. It would stand in the way of a transition to a 100% hydrogen economy, since once the proportion of hydrogen in the mix has been established, it will not be possible to increase this time after time. Doing so would require further modifications to industrial gas turbines, which is an extremely expensive undertaking. There is a very high likelihood that if this option is adopted, the percentage of hydrogen in the mix will be pegged at 5 or 10% for ever more. A one-step transition may therefore be preferable. We in the department of TPM are working alongside our partners to identify the pros and cons of all the various options.” Visit also the conference about  ‘the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy?‘ 

Club of Amsterdam Journal, March 2004, Issue 20

Content ‘The Greening of Gas’ Project [VG2] About the future of Education & Learning News about the Future International Space Station: Science Experiments Bombardier EMBRIO Bubble Fusion Recommended Book Round Table: Willem Basten Upcoming Events Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe ‘The Greening of Gas’ Project [VG2] Kas Hemmes, Projectleader, VG2 [the greening of gas], associate professor, TU Delft A new look at the hydrogen economyTo mix hydrogen into the domestic gas network: that is the challenge that those taking part in the EET-subsidized project, ‘The Greening of Gas’ have set themselves. Project coordinator Dr Kas Hemmes (Associate Professor with the Energy and Industry section) describes the many technical and administrative difficulties of this promising idea. Under the Kyoto Climate Treaty, the Netherlands is expected to reduce its emission of greenhouse gases by six per cent (compared to 1990 levels). The main greenhouse gases produced by the combustion of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal are NOx (nitrogen oxides), SO2 (sulphur dioxide) and CO2 (carbon dioxide). The idea of using hydrogen as a supplementary energy source emerged in the 1970s. Hydrogen has a significant advantage in that its combustion produces only water and no greenhouse gases. “Because the environmental benefits are so obvious, some people do not understand why the idea was not implemented a long time ago,” states Kas Hemmes. “Perhaps they think we can just dig a well and pump hydrogen out. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. Pure hydrogen does not occur naturally. It has to be derived from other energy sources such as natural gas, coal or biomass. It can also be extracted from water by means of electrolysis.” Hemmes, who studied experimental and theoretical physics in Groningen, gained his doctorate in 1986 with his research into magnetic recording. However, he soon became interested in energy research. For fifteen years, he conducted research into fuel cells with the Material Sciences and Engineering department of Delft University of Technology. For the last eighteen months he has been involved in the systems design for a national hydrogen distribution infrastructure and the design of transition processes towards a hydrogen economy. This work has been conducted within TPM as part of the ‘Greening of Gas’ project, financed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science and the Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment (VROM) under the Economy, Ecolgy and Technology (EET) programme. Kas Hemmes speaks at our Club of Amsterdam Event about‘the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy?’ on Wednesday, March 31, 18:30-22:15! About the future of energy Reactor puts hydrogen from renewable fuels within reachA team of chemical engineers led by Regents Professor Lanny Schmidt has invented a prototype reactor capable of producing hydrogen from a renewable resource efficiently enough to hold economic potential. When coupled with a hydrogen fuel cell, the unit – which is small enough to hold in your hand – could generate one kilowatt of power, almost enough to supply an average-size home. The technology, which converts ethanol into water, carbon dioxide, and hydrogen, is cheaper and more efficient than current methods of producing hydrogen. The researchers published their findings in the February 13 issue of Science. Their work was supported by the Initiative on Renewable Energy and the Environment, the National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Department of Energy. Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply”by European CommissionThe Green Paper on the security of energy supply, adopted by the Commission more than a year ago, opened up a debate on energy policy unprecedented in 30 years. In most of the Member States this debate revived discussion on national options in the energy field. It was used for reference in some third countries, like the United States (during the preparation of the Bush energy plan), Japan and Russia. The Barcelona European Council of March 2002 notes in its conclusions “the intention of the Commission to present the report on the security of supplies based on the results of the debate generated by the Commission’s Green Paper on Security of Energy Supplies, in view of its next meeting in Seville”. News about the Future Will innovation flourish in the future?by Jerome I. FriedmanScience and technology grew exponentially during the 20th century. But will the conditions necessary for creating the kinds of innovations that shape our lives be sustained in the future?By definition, the word innovate means to bring in something new, to make changes in something established. Clearly, there is a continuum of innovation that ranges from breakthroughs that change the underpinnings of our society to new methods or tools to solve particular problems. The major innovations of the future, those that will shape society, will require a foundation of strong basic research. Innovation is the key to the future, but basic research is the key to future innovation. And today, the future of basic research appears vulnerable.Although applied research and invention play important roles in innovation, they do not generally produce the major conceptual breakthroughs necessary for creating radically new technologies. The limitation of focused or problem-oriented research becomes apparent in the following observation: If you know what you are looking for, you are limited by what you know. ENERGY  50th anniversary of CERN In the Organization’s golden jubilee year, CERN is focusing on the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), which will be the world’s largest and most complex scientific instrument when it switches on in 2007. Experiments at the LHC will allow physicists to complete a journey that started with Newton’s description of gravity. Gravity acts on mass, but so far science is unable to explain why the fundamental particles have the masses they have. Experiments at the LHC may provide the answer. LHC experiments will also probe the mysterious missing mass and dark energy of the universe – visible matter seems to account for just 5% of what must exist. They will investigate the reason for nature’s preference for matter over antimatter, and they will probe matter as it existed at the very beginning of time. International Space Station: Science Experiments International Space Station: Science ExperimentsBioastronautics Research Crewmember and crew-ground interactions during International Space Station MissionsSpace flight places humans in an environment unlike any found on Earth. The nearly complete absence of gravity is perhaps the most prominent obstacle that astronauts face. It requires a significant modification of living and working habits by the astronauts. Not only do they have to learn to adapt to the way they perform routine operations, such as eating, moving and operating equipment, but they must also learn to adjust to the internal changes that their bodies experience and to the psychosocial stressors that result from working under isolated and confined conditions.The Interactions experiment will identify and characterize important interpersonal and cultural factors that may impact the performance of the crew and ground support personnel during International Space Station missions. Chromosomal Aberrations in Blood Lymphocytes of AstronautsCosmic radiation is a major risk factor in human space flight. This study will assess the mutagenic impact of ionizing radiation in crewmembers by analyzing chromosomal aberrations in blood lymphocytes from pre- and post-flight blood samples.Previous investigations studying chromosomal aberrations were conducted using conventional block stained Giemsa preparations. A disadvantage of this method is that only unstable aberrations, which are of less biological significance, can be detected.In the past few years, new methods of chromosomal recognition were developed, such as fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), multi-colored FISH (mFISH), and multi-color banding FISH (mBAND). These techniques enable researchers to mark all chromosome pairs and allow detection of almost all aberration types in the genome, including stable and unstable ones. These new methods will provide new information about the effects of space radiation on humans. Physical Sciences Pore Formation and Mobility Investigation (PFMI)On Earth when scientists melt metals, bubbles that form in the molten material can rise to the surface, pop and disappear. In microgravity — the near-weightless environment created as the International Space Station orbits Earth, the lighter bubbles do not rise and disappear. Prior space experiments have shown that bubbles often become trapped in the final metal or crystal sample. In the solid, these bubbles, or porosity, are defects that diminish both the material’s strength and usefulness.The Pore Formation and Mobility Investigation will melt samples of a transparent modeling material, succinonitrile and succinonitrile water mixtures. Investigators will be able to observe how bubbles form in the samples and study their movements and interactions. Space Flight Earth Knowledge Acquired by Middle School StudentsEarthKAM (Earth Knowledge Acquired by Middle school students) is a NASA education program that enables thousands of students to photograph and examine Earth from a space crew’s perspective.Using the Internet, the students control a special digital camera mounted on-board the International Space Station. This enables them to photograph the Earth’s coastlines, mountain ranges and other geographic items of interest from the unique vantage point of space. The team at EarthKAM then posts these photographs on the Internet for the public and participating classrooms around the world to view. Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE)The Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) will test the durability of hundreds of samples ranging from lubricants to solar cell technologies.The samples, engineered to better withstand the punishing effects of the Sun, extreme temperatures and other elements, will be flown 220 miles above the Earth — outside the International Space Station and unprotected by Earth’s atmosphere. By examining how the coatings fare in the harsh environment of space, researchers seek new insight into developing materials for future spacecraft, as well as making materials last longer on Earth.Managed by Langley Research Center in Hampton, Va., MISSE is a collaborative effort among NASA centers, the U.S. Air Force and private industry. By pooling resources, these groups can reap the rewards of collaborating on advanced material-science research, while minimizing the total investment of any one participant. Bombardier EMBRIO The  EMBRIO concept is a recreational and commuting vehicle that uses gyroscopic and electronic technology. It is a means of transportation, as well as a way of enjoying transportation as a positive activity. The main power source is a hydrogen fuel cell. In stand-by configuration, the vehicle’s front wheels deploy to the ground like a jet plane landing gear to increase longitudinal stability. Thus stabilized, the Bombardier EMBRIO looks perfectly at home in the urban landscape, displaying the beauty of its sculptural lines until it’s time to go for a ride. Bubble Fusion Nuclear engineer, Rusi Taleyarkhan led the research team at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee that has proposed a small table-top sized nuclear fusion device. Taleyarkhan described the project as true, “tabletop physics, using an apparatus the size of three coffee cups stacked on top of the other.” The researchers bombarded millimeter-sized bubbles of deuterated-acetone vapor with sound waves (called acoustic cavitation) that resulted in a burst of subatomic particles called neutrons and the production of tritium, an isotope of hydrogen both evidence of a nuclear fusion reaction. The bubbles reached temperatures of 10 million degrees Kelvin, the same as the center of the Sun. Earlier test data, which were reported in Science (Vol. 295, March 2002), indicated that nuclear fusion had occurred, but these data were questioned because they were taken with less precise instrumentation. Researchers Rusi Taleyarkhan, Colin West, and Jae-Seon Cho conducted the bubble fusion experiments at ORNL. At Rensselaer and in Russia, Professors Richard T. Lahey Jr., the Edward E. Hood Professor of Engineering at Rensselaer and the director of the analytical part of the joint research project, and Robert I. Nigmatulin performed the theoretical analysis of the bubble dynamics and predicted the shock-induced pressures, temperatures, and densities in the imploding vapor bubbles. Robert Block, professor emeritus of nuclear engineering at Rensselaer, helped to design, set up, and calibrate a state-of-the-art neutron and gamma ray detection system for the new experiments. “These extensive new experiments have replicated and extended our earlier results and hopefully answer all of the previous questions surrounding our discovery,” said Richard T. Lahey Jr. Recommended Book Hydrogen as Fuelby Richard Cammack (Editor), Michel Frey (Editor), Robert Robson (Editor), R.L. Robson, Michael Frey (Editor)The last five years have seen breakthroughs in the understanding of the nature, structure, and biosynthesis of hydrogenases. The book offers a timely description of these results which are just appearing in the scientific literature. It will be of interest to anyone concerned with environmentally friendly energy conservation. Supporter of the Club of Amsterdam event about ‘the future of Education & Learning‘ on Wednesday, February 18, 2004 is: The Club of Amsterdam Round Table: Willem Basten Willem Basten, CEO, LOGICmerce BV Our society faces a massive challenge. Our view of the world expands, we learn about places without visiting them and see people we never actually meet face to face. In the meantime our own sociological circumstances have changed rapidly and I am concerned we are overlooking this.We are a multi-cultural mix and we will have to adapt to it. Those amongst us who are so foolish as to ignore it or attempt to resist this, will become alienated in their struggle. We have to gain understanding and be willing to understand. We are facing a massive challenge. We have to preserve our identity and cultural heritance yet blend those with the flavours, feelings, religions and thoughts from our global neighbours. If not we ourselves, our children definitely will be global citizens. We will have to teach them and make them aware of the opportunities and challenges. That requires awareness. We have to create awareness and be willing to be aware. I am facing a massive challenge. Participating in an expanding complex society struggling with sociological change and struggling with identities it is not an easy task to determine what values to teach to my offspring to prepare them for global citizenship. And I am desperate for understanding and awareness. I do know that knowledge is power and I accept that the scope of our knowledge exceeds anyone’s individual intellectual capacities. So to maintain control over our society we need to share knowledge.In order to gain understanding and create awareness communication is key. Modern age technology offers progressively sophisticated tools to help us manage our knowledge and communicate facts, ideas and thoughts.So I master technology in as much this helps me. Yet one burning question keeps nagging: Is it making us better people??? Club of Amsterdam Events 2003/2004 October 28, 2003 the future of Food & Biotech November 27, 2003 the future of the Media & Entertainment Industry January 28, 2004 the future of the European Knowledge Society February 18, 2004 the future of Education & Learning March 31, 2004 the future of Energy – the Hydrogen Economy? April 28, 2004 the future of Healthcare & Technology May 19, 2004 the future of Architecture June 23, 2004 the future of Culture & Religion

Making a European Area of Lifelong Learning a Reality

by EC, Directorate-General for Education and CultureNovember 2001 When planning for a year, plant corn. When planning for a decade, plant trees. When planning for life, train and educate people.” Chinese proverb: Guanzi (c. 645BC)Executive SummaryThe Feira European Council in June 2000 asked the Member States, the Council and the Commission, within their areas of competence, to “identify coherent strategies and practical measures with a view to fostering lifelong learning for all”. This mandate confirms lifelong learning as a key element of the strategy, devised at Lisbon, to make Europe the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based society in the world. People are at the heart of this Communication. Over 12,000 citizens contributed to the consultation which was initiated by the Commission’s Memorandum on Lifelong Learning, issued in November of last year. The feedback highlighted only too clearly the enormity of the challenges ahead. Economic and social changes associated with the transition to a knowledge-based society present the European Union and its citizens with both benefits – in terms of increased opportunities for communication, travel and employment, and risks – not least relating to higher levels of inequality and social exclusion. The scale of such changes calls for a radical new approach to education and training. Moreover, the current uncertain economic climate places renewed emphasis and importance on lifelong learning. Traditional policies and institutions are increasingly ill-equipped to empower citizens for actively dealing with the consequences of globalisation, demographic change, digital technology and environmental damage. Yet people, their knowledge and competences are the key to Europe’s future.A European area of lifelong learningThis Communication contributes to the establishment of a European area of lifelong learning, the aims of which are both to empower citizens to move freely between learning settings, jobs, regions and countries, making the most of their knowledge and competences, and to meet the goals and ambitions of the European Union and the candidate countries to be more prosperous, inclusive, tolerant and democratic. This development will be facilitated by bringing together within a lifelong learning framework education and training, and important elements of existing European level processes, strategies and plans concerned with youth, employment, social inclusion, and research policy. This does not imply a new process, nor can it involve the harmonisation of laws and regulations. Rather, it calls for more coherent and economical use of existing instruments and resources, including through the use of the open method of coordination. In order to achieve the Lisbon aim of a knowledge-based society, close links will be established between the European area of lifelong learning and the European research area, particularly with a view to raising the interest of young people in science and technology careers. What is lifelong learning?Responses to the consultation on the Memorandum called for a broad definition of lifelong learning that is not limited to a purely economic outlook or just to learning for adults. In addition to the emphasis it places on learning from pre-school to post-retirement, lifelong learning should encompass the whole spectrum of formal, non-formal and informal learning. The consultation also highlighted the objectives of learning, including active citizenship, personal fulfilment and social inclusion, as well as employment-related aspects. The principles which underpin lifelong learning and guide its effective implementation emphasise the centrality of the learner, the importance of equal opportunities and the quality and relevance of learning opportunities. Coherent and comprehensive lifelong learning strategiesMember States agreed at the Feira European Council, and in the context of the European Employment Strategy, to develop and implement coherent and comprehensive strategies for lifelong learning. The building blocks of such strategies are set out here in order to assist Member States and actors at all levels. The implication of the building blocks is a gradual integration of formal learning environments with a view to making quality learning opportunities accessible for all, on an ongoing basis. The clear message is that traditional systems must be transformed to become much more open and flexible, so that learners can have individual learning pathways, suitable to their needs and interests, and thus genuinely take advantage of equal opportunities throughout their lives. The building blocks are consistent with the lifelong learning assessment criteria used in the Joint Employment Report 2001. A partnership approach is stipulated as the first building block. All relevant actors, in and outside the formal systems, must collaborate for strategies to work ‘on the ground’. Gaining insight into the needs of the learner, or the potential learner, along with learning needs of organisations, communities, wider society and the labour market is the next step. Adequate resourcing, in terms of financing and the effective and transparent allocation of resources, can then be addressed. The analysis then proceeds to how to match learning opportunities to learners’ needs and interests and how to facilitate access by developing the supply side to enable learning by anyone, anywhere, at any time. There is a clear need here for the formal sector to recognise and value non-formal and informal learning. Creating a culture of learning depends ultimately on increasing learning opportunities, raising participation levels and stimulating demand for learning. Finally, mechanisms for quality assurance, evaluation and monitoring are suggested, with a view to striving for excellence on an ongoing basis. Priorities for actionAction is proposed which builds on the European dimension to lifelong learning, while also supporting strategies at all levels. The priorities are presented under the six key messages, which were the basis of, and endorsed by, the European-wide consultation. A comprehensive new European approach to valuing learning is seen as a pre-requisite for the area of lifelong learning, building on the existing right of free movement within the EU. Proposals focus on the identification, assessment and recognition of non-formal and informal learning as well as on the transfer and mutual recognition of formal certificates and diplomas. Information, guidance and counselling is addressed mainly at European level, with proposals that aim at facilitating access to learning through the availability of quality guidance services. Investing time and money in learning, particularly in the context of the call for Member States to raise overall levels of investment in education and training in the Lisbon conclusions and in the European Employment Strategy, is a condition of bringing about the kind of fundamental changes which lifelong learning implies. There are no easy solutions to how this is to be achieved. Increased investment and targeted funding are called for, along with mechanisms for increasing private investment. Proposals to encourage and support learning communities, cities and regions as well as enabling workplaces to become learning organisations are seen as key ways to bring learning and learners closer together. Importance is also attached to the development of local learning centres. Complementing the work initiated at Lisbon and Stockholm on the ‘new’ basic skills, proposals are developed to ensure that the foundations of lifelong learning are accessible to all citizens, at all stages of their lives and not just within compulsory education. Finally, proposals for innovative pedagogy address the shift in emphasis from knowledge acquisition to competence development, and the new roles for teachers and learners that this implies. Driving forward the agendaAll actors are invited to work in partnership to drive forward the agenda: the Commission and the other European Institutions, the Member States, the EEA and candidate countries, the social partners, NGOs and international organisations (e.g. the Council of Europe, OECD, UNESCO). Implementation will be through existing processes, programmes and instruments, taken forward within the framework of lifelong learning. This framework will support the exchange of good practice and experience and thus the identification of shared problems, ideas and priorities. To facilitate this, the Commission will develop a database on good practice, information and experience concerning lifelong learning at all levels. The Follow-up to the Report on the Concrete Objectives of Education and Training Systems will be one of the main means for cooperation in this field, while the European Employment Strategy will continue to focus on the employment-related aspects of lifelong learning. The Community programmes – Socrates, Leonardo da Vinci and Youth – will be strengthened in the light of this Communication. Increasing the potential of the European Social Fund (ESF) and the ESF Community Initiative EQUAL to support implementation will also be examined. Progress will be measured and monitored through the use of a limited number of indicators – those in existence or development, as well as a small number of new indicators. Implementation will also be overseen by networks and structures: those already established, for example, as part of the consultation process, and a high level group of representatives of Ministries bearing the main responsibility for lifelong learning. This group will help to ensure the complementarity of measures developed in the field of lifelong learning, including the implementation of the work programme for the Follow-up of the Report on the Concrete Objectives of Education and Training Systems, with related processes, strategies and plans at European level. The next steps will be an endorsement of the main principles and proposals by the Council (Education and Youth Council, and the Employment and Social Policy Council), during the Spanish Presidency. There will also be a contribution by the Commission on lifelong learning to the Barcelona Spring Council of 15-16 March 2002. You can download the full report as a *.pdf file: click here

Incubating ‘Real Time Learning’

by Tom Bentley, Demos, Matthew Horne, Demos & NCSL Incubating ‘Real Time Learning’: The role and nature of Real Time Learning in Networked Learning Communities AbstractThis paper outlines the concept and emerging practice of ‘real time learning’ within the Networked Learning Communities Programme. Networked Learning Communities (NLC) is a large-scale, publicly funded, practitioner led, ‘development and research project’. Real time learning aims to be a knowledge generating and knowledge sharing set of processes and relationships which can help to meet the context-specific needs of practitioners working in school to school networks and the wider needs of a larger scale national programme aiming to improve attainment outcomes, meet some of the objectives of an ambitious national reform programme, and help to provide policy-makers with lessons about what constitutes effective, capacity-building intervention. The conceptual framework has been built on a synthesis of the principles of collaborative practitioner enquiry, action research and emergent forms of ‘knowledge management’. It is not designed to meet the conventional requirements of large scale academic research, but to be complementary to, and to draw on, the forms of knowledge which such research generates. As such, it may present a challenge to established conventions of academic ‘rigour’ in relation to the generation and use of knowledge about what forms of pedagogical strategy and organisation are valuable in seeking to improve student attainment outcomes. Clarifying this challenge is important, because it establishes a set of shared understandings between the practitioner community (represented by NLCs) and the researcher community, the value of which should be self-evident to all. The strategy is ambitious, and we are in the early stages of developing and implementing it. The most contested issue remains how knowledge generated through ‘real time learning’ could be used to inform policy making in a dynamic and fast-moving decision-making environment. You download the full report as a *pdf file: click here Visit also: http://www.demos.co.uk