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Club of Amsterdam Journal, October 2017, Issue 198
Content Biomimicry, Climate Change & Architecture: an interview with Michael Pawlyn Internet Society Global Internet Report 2017 The Future Now Show: Digital Twin Cities & Artificial Intelligence with Igor van Gemert Yuval Noah Harari on the Rise of Homo Deus News about the Future: A Sustainable Future Powered by Sea / Special Report: The Maker Movement MycoTree Recommended Book: A History of the Future: Prophets of Progress from H. G. Wells to Isaac Asimov European Inventor Award 2017 ULTRANOW Briefings: A MOUNTAIN AND MACGYVER Futurist Portrait: Chris Skinner Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Artificial Intelligences (AIs) are being increasingly used in real applications. An example, discussed here, is using them to mimic the goings-on in a simulation of a real city (or even country), from traffic flow to electricity and water consumption. This allows us to play with possible variations (which energy sources to use, extreme scenarios etc.) and make wiser decisions about the real city. But hang on; if the AIs can figure this out, why not let them manage the city for us? – Paul Holister The Future Now Show: Digital Twin Cities & Artificial Intelligence with Igor van Gemert “ULTRANOW briefings by Lise Voldeng are advisory bullets traversing every sector of civilization – providing forecasting, analysis and advisory insights on how to prosper integrously. Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Biomimicry, Climate Change & Architecture: an interview with Michael Pawlyn by Biomimicry Institute | Jul 30, 2017 Megan Schuknecht, the Biomimicry Institute’s director of design challenges, is interviewing the world’s foremost thought leaders in biomimicry and sustainability to explore nature-based solutions to the world’s most pressing climate change issues. With each interview, we’ll delve into the top three areas where climate and sector leaders think we should intervene to affect the most change, take a deeper look at the most promising solutions on the horizon, and explore where they think the next big opportunity will be. Michael Pawlyn is an architect and has a well-earned reputation as a pioneer of biomimicry. Megan: What’s one surprising thing about climate change that most people DON’T know? Michael: I always find it kind of absurd when I meet some property consultants in London who insist that buildings have to be air-conditioned and that increasing temperatures will make that even more the case. When they do that, I point them to the example of the Eastgate Centre, the office building that’s pretty close to the equator and works without any air conditioning. Megan: Within the built environment, what are the top three areas where we need to intervene in order to truly impact climate change? Michael: A lot of people would argue that it’s refurbishing existing buildings, and I think that is a pretty strong case because in the U.K. we only rebuild about 1 percent of our building stock every year, which means a hell of a lot of the buildings that will be standing by 2040 or 2050 are the ones that already exist. And by 2040 or 2050, we need to almost completely decarbonize our economies and our built environment. So that makes it clear just how big the challenge is, and of course, the sooner we do it the better. So that’s definitely one. The context for which we are designing is becoming more and more demanding of radical change. The other thing is, I’m constantly frustrated that the pace of change is so slow. We have nearly all the solutions we need to make buildings much more efficient for new build or existing buildings, and yet this stuff is just not getting implemented. And that’s a serious problem. If anything the construction industry in the UK is getting more conservative, when the context for which we are designing is becoming more and more demanding of radical change. The whole aspect of transport and the public realm in cities needs some urgent rethinking. That can, and should, have a big impact on climate change, and thankfully, most of the changes we need to make will actually improve people’s quality of life as well. So it shouldn’t be too big an ask to bring about those kind of changes. And of course the kind of changes I’m referring to are shifting away from single-occupancy private cars towards much more sustainable forms of transport – walking, cycling, and forms of mass transit. Megan: Is there a nature-inspired solution out there that makes you hopeful, related to climate change? Michael: Well, one of the projects we’ve been working on, which is perhaps the most radical in a way, is one that’s called the Biorock Pavilion. The starting point for that was the Vostok ice-core graphs. The part that everyone focuses on is the bit showing how CO2 and temperature have risen exponentially since the start of the industrial revolution. That’s the bit that people tend to focus on, for good reason, because it does look alarming. But in many ways I find the earlier part of the graph more interesting, because that shows how for nearly half a million years, and probably for much longer still, the CO2 and temperature levels varied within a fairly steady band, which raises the question of — what is the controlling mechanism that used to maintain that equilibrium? The conclusion you could draw from [James Lovelock’s Gaia theory] is that the way biology would solve the challenge of climate change is to make more things from atmospheric carbon. The most persuasive explanation I’ve heard is the one that is related to James Lovelock’s Gaia theory, which says that it is coccolithophores and other marine microorganisms that have boomed during periods of higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. So they make their skeletons partly out of carbon in the form of calcium carbonate dissolved in the ocean. Because they’ve got quite short lives and they fall to the ocean floor as what’s called “ocean rain” when they die, they build up layers of limestone, and by doing that they transfer carbon from the atmosphere into the lithosphere and restore the balance. The conclusion you could draw from that is that the way biology would solve the challenge of climate change is to make more things from atmospheric carbon. So we’ve been looking quite a bit at the idea of how you can grow materials. Wood is an obvious example. But biorock appealed to us because it allows for greater control of the forms that you can create. It’s a way of growing structures in seawater using electrodeposition of minerals. It’s mainly calcium carbonate and magnesium hydroxide. And it’s simple – you put a steel frame in the seawater, you pass a very low-level electric current through it, perfectly safe for wildlife, and you get fairly rapid deposition of minerals on that steel frame. After about a year, it can be 20-25 mm thick and it can be as strong as reinforced concrete. So we’ve proposed growing a whole building that way. We’re also looking at other ways of making materials out of atmospheric carbon. Some of the things that Neri Oxman is doing at MIT are very interesting, basically 3D printing with biologically-derived polymers. If we could really scale that up as a proposition, then we would be doing what we need to be doing, which is taking carbon out of the atmosphere and turning it into building materials. Megan: So the Biorock Pavilion is something you’ve made using the mineral deposition technology? Michael: Not yet. We experimented with Biorock in our Sahara Forest Project in Qatar where we grew some structural elements. And we’ve done a design for the Biorock Pavilion, but we haven’t gotten as far as actually doing any prototyping work yet. Megan: Going back to something you said earlier – basically, I think you were referring to the fact that we also need a shift in mindset – the science is there but you’re frustrated that we aren’t implementing things more rapidly. Do you think there is a role for biomimicry in encouraging implementation of existing solutions? Michael: Yes, I do, and probably in a number of ways. But the way that comes most immediately to mind is the way that biomimicry helps tell persuasive stories. And when I say that, I don’t mean that in any kind of belittling way at all. Telling stories is becoming increasingly important, or at least the importance is becoming increasingly apparent. We’ve seen in recent years that there are a lot of people who just aren’t interested in data. You can talk to them about numbers until you’re blue in the face, and it won’t actually change their minds. You need to communicate on a slightly different level. What I’ve found can be very useful about biomimicry is you can start off with a story about a biological organism that does something pretty fantastic, and then you can show how you can translate that solution into something that suits human needs. So one example would be, if I were to get up in front of an audience of people and say, “Yeah, this thing’s called the Sahara Forest Project, and we thought we would make water in the desert and turn the desert green and make energy” and so on, I think most people would be crossing their arms and looking at their watches and thinking, “How long is this guy on for?” Whereas if I start with describing how the fog-basking beetle harvests water, then people are immediately grabbed and they’re leaning forward thinking, “Well, if a beetle can do it then we ought to be able to do it because humans are ingenious,” right? So I’ve found that biomimicry can be very useful for grabbing people’s attention and then getting them over a kind of skepticism threshold so that they are receptive to a new way of looking at things. Megan: I think you just addressed this in a small way, in terms of helping people get over some skepticism and possibly thinking about doing things in a new way, but do you have any advice on how to get more people involved in addressing climate change issues? We could also limit it to your sphere, how to we get more people in the built environment engaging with climate change issues? Michael: I always try to get people excited about positive possibilities, rather than getting them depressed about gloomy realities. In truth we need a bit of both. But, at least in this country, people have heard all of the gloomy stuff. They know that biodiversity is plummeting. They know that climate change is happening. And what we need is a much more lively conversation about solutions. In my talks and when I teach students and so on, I always try to get them to think positively about how you can shape the future. So rather than thinking about the future as something that just happens to you, think about it as something you really can shape. A bit like the way Hans Rosling said you should be neither an optimist or pessimist, because both of those positions imply some sense of inevitability. What you should be is a serious possibilist. You should decide on the kind of future you want and then you set about creating it. Be deliberate about shaping the future. I think that kind of call to action does address one of the problems that a lot of people – this is less true of students, but still some students – are rather lackadaisical when it comes to grabbing hold of something and implementing it. Biomimicry can be very useful for grabbing people’s attention and then getting them over a kind of skepticism threshold so that they are receptive to a new way of looking at things. Megan: Along those lines, we do work with a lot of young people who are very excited about shaping possibilities. But they don’t always know how to get past or work through or stay excited in the face of doing things in a very different way and becoming young inventors or young entrepreneurs. Do you have any particular advice for young biomimics? Michael: In the second edition of my book [Biomimicry in Architecture], I did include an expanded sort of primer on how to actually apply biomimicry. One of the things I say to students, and to architects, is when you’re doing these biomimetic approaches, you can run into difficulties, particularly if you’re trying to mimic ecosystem levels. It can get really complicated, and there’s often a strong temptation to just go back to something that is simpler and more familiar. I’ve noticed this particularly with ecosystem models, where you’re trying to get a number of different elements to be synergized, so the output for one becomes the input for something else. You’ve actually got quite a lot of interconnected flows and interdependencies, and sometimes it’s quite difficult to see what’s going to happen if one link in the chain gets broken and so on. There’s a lovely quotation from an author called Ben Okri who said, “Adversity is not the end of a story, but where there is courage and conviction, it’s the start of a new story, a richer one than existed before.” So if you run into difficulties, I always encourage people to try to apply the same level of ingenuity and imagination as you did at the start rather than feeling defeated. Think about what you can add to the system to solve the problem rather than simplifying it. A good example of this would be the Biorock story. On Sahara Forest Project in Qatar, one of the key inputs to the whole system is seawater. We were told that our seawater pipe would get encrusted with scale very quickly, and our industrial partner said that they would have to use large quantities of bleach to keep the pipes clean. We thought that sounded insane, but they were serious about this being a problem. So we thought about this. The scale is not a problem per se, it’s quite a hard, useful material. It’s just forming in the wrong location. So we proposed the idea of actually growing structural elements in the sea pipe that is supplying the project using biorock. That would take the scale out of the seawater and it would accumulate on these elements of steel structure rather than on the pipe itself. Then the seawater within the pipe downstream would be slightly more acidic, which would be enough to prevent scale formation on the rest of the pipe. Think about what you can add to the system to solve the problem rather than simplifying it. The serendipitous discovery was that the Biorock process also releases very small amounts of chlorine into the water, enough to suppress biofouling, which was another one of our concerns about the pipes getting clogged. There was something very nice about being able to grow elements to expand the project within the pipe that is supplying the project. And it showed that by being imaginative about problem solving, we were able to add a significant new element to the system. Michael Pawlyn Michael Pawlyn established the architecture firm Exploration in 2007 to focus on environmentally sustainable projects that take their inspiration from nature. He has lectured internationally on biomimicry and innovative approaches to sustainability. In 2007 Michael Pawlyn delivered a talk at Google’s annual ‘Zeitgeist’ conference and, in 2011, became one of only a small handful of architects to have a talk posted on TED.com. In the same year, his book Biomimicry in Architecture was published by the Royal Institute of British Architects. Prior to setting up the company Michael Pawlyn worked with Grimshaw for ten years and was central to the team that radically re-invented horticultural architecture for the Eden Project. He was responsible for leading the design of the Warm Temperate and Humid Tropics Biomes and the subsequent phases. He initiated the Grimshaw environmental management system resulting in the company becoming the first firm of European architects to achieve certification to ISO14001. Internet Society Global Internet Report 2017 Paths to Our Digital Future Executive summary The Internet has profoundly shaped our world and has changed our lives in both big and small ways. The technology change around us has happened both quickly and imperceptibly. The very first connections between computers nearly fifty years ago have been transformed into a wave of connectivity that covers the planet. New devices and innovations have given us more ways to harness the power of connectivity wherever we go and have given us functionality we could never have imagined. Vint Cerf Interview The Future Now Show Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show October 2017 Digital Twin Cities & Artificial Intelligence withIgor van GemertArtificial Intelligences (AIs) are being increasingly used in real applications. An example, discussed here, is using them to mimic the goings-on in a simulation of a real city (or even country), from traffic flow to electricity and water consumption. This allows us to play with possible variations (which energy sources to use, extreme scenarios etc.) and make wiser decisions about the real city. But hang on; if the AIs can figure this out, why not let them manage the city for us? — Paul Holister October 2017 The Future Now Show Yuval Noah Harari on the Rise of Homo Deus Prof. Yuval Noah Harari is the author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind and Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. He was born in Haifa, Israel, in 1976. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Oxford in 2002, and is now a lecturer at the Department of History, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He specialized in World History, medieval history and military history. His current research focuses on macro-historical questions: What is the relation between history and biology? What is the essential difference between Homo sapiens and other animals? Is there justice in history? Does history have a direction? Did people become happier as history unfolded? News about the Future A Sustainable Future Powered by Sea OIST researchers develop turbines to convert the power of ocean waves into clean, renewable energy. Professor Tsumoru Shintake at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST) yearns for a clean future, one that is affordable and powered by sustainable energy. Originally from the high-energy accelerator field, in 2012 he decided to seek new energy resources—wind and solar were being explored in depth, but he moved toward the sea instead. “Using just 1% of the seashore of mainland Japan can [generate] about 10 gigawats [of energy], which is equivalent to 10 nuclear power plants,” Professor Shintake explains. Special Report: The Maker Movement Whether you grew up tinkering with radios or cars or built gadgets from scratch, your hobbies might have inspired you to become an engineer. That same sentiment is now spreading far and wide in what’s called the maker movement. In this special report, The Institute takes a look at IEEE’s involvement in the movement. IEEE volunteers are setting up booths at some of the world’s largest maker fairs, which attract tens of thousands of people. We also showcase several members’ projects, including an android named Ken, a robotic Rubik’s cube solver, and 3D-printed prosthetic hands.The 3D printer helped usher in the maker movement, and its capabilities have evolved impressively. We feature a bioprinter being used in classrooms so students can print living organisms for experiments. And the Gigabot 3D printer from the startup re:3D is making it affordable to produce large objects, like airplane parts and flooring tiles. To help turn your big idea into reality, Alon Hillel-Tuch, cofounder of RocketHub, shares his tips on how to raise money by crowdfunding. We also profile IEEE Senior Member Samir Chatterjee, a professor who is transforming classrooms at two schools with the makerspace concept: equipping students with tools to solve problems and to help them turn their ideas into prototypes and even profitable ventures MycoTree MycoTree is a spatial branching structure made out of load-bearing mycelium components. Its geometry was designed using 3D graphic statics, keeping the weak material in compression only. Its complex nodes were grown in digitally fabricated moulds. MycoTree is the result of a collaboration between the Professorship of Sustainable Construction at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) and the Block Research Group at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zürich. It is the centrepiece of the “Beyond Mining – Urban Growth” exhibition at the Seoul Biennale of Architecture and Urbanism 2017 in Seoul, Korea curated by Hyungmin Pai and Alejandro Zaera-Polo, and will be on display in Pavilion i7 at the Donuimun Museum Village from September 1st to November 5th 2017. Utilising only mycelium and bamboo, the structure represents a provocative vision of how we may move beyond the mining of our construction materials from the earth’s crust to their cultivation and urban growth; how achieving stability through geometry rather than through material strength opens up the possibility of using weaker materials structurally and safely; and, ultimately, how regenerative resources in combination with informed structural design have the potential to propose an alternative to established, structural materials for a more sustainable building industry. A Necessary Paradigm ShiftAs populations and aspirations grow, so does the demand for materials and resources to support them. Although such resource demands were once satisfied by local and regional hinterlands, they are becoming increasingly global in scale and reach. This phenomenon has generated material flows that are trans-continental and planetary in scope and has profound consequences for the sustainability, functioning, sense of ownership and identity of future cities. However, the global concentration of the construction industry on a selected few materials puts high pressure on our natural resources. If we talk about the future city, it is clear that it cannot be built with the same resources as existing ones. The 21st century will face a radical paradigm shift in how we produce materials for the construction of our habitat. The linear concept of “produce, use, and discard” has proven itself unsustainable in the face of scarce resources and exponentially increasing urban populations. Instead, to achieve a cycle of production, use, and re-use, we must explore alternative materials and approaches to construction. Materials that were previously considered unwanted and low-strength may present possibilities to end this undesirable state of affairs. Building with materials that can be effectively cultivated on site or nearby and designing in compression to produce structures that can span space despite the low tensile capacity of their components may bring about changes that are desperately needed. Recommended Book A History of the Future: Prophets of Progress from H. G. Wells to Isaac Asimovby Peter J. Bowler In this wide-ranging survey, Peter J. Bowler explores the phenomenon of futurology: predictions about the future development and impact of science and technology on society and culture in the twentieth century. Utilising science fiction, popular science literature and the novels of the literary elite, Bowler highlights contested responses to the potential for revolutionary social change brought about by real and imagined scientific innovations. Charting the effect of social and military developments on attitudes towards innovation in Europe and America, Bowler shows how conflict between the enthusiasm of technocrats and the pessimism of their critics was presented to the public in books, magazines and exhibitions, and on the radio and television. A series of case studies reveals the impact of technologies such as radio, aviation, space exploration and genetics, exploring rivalries between innovators and the often unexpected outcome of their efforts to produce mechanisms and machines that could change the world. European Inventor Award 2017 The European Inventor Award or European Inventor awards (formerly European Inventor of the Year Award, renamed in 2010), are presented annually by the European Patent Office, sometimes supported by the respective Presidency of the Council of the European Union and by the European Commission, to inventors who have made a significant contribution to innovation, economy and society in Europe. Inventions from all technological fields are considered for this award. The winners in each category are presented with an award shaped like a sail. There is no cash prize associated with the award. ULTRANOW BRIEFINGS: A MOUNTAIN AND MACGYVER ULTRANOW briefings are advisory bullets traversing every sector of civilization – providing forecasting, analysis and advisory insights on how to prosper integrously. ULTRANOW briefings are brought to you by Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. and UAI CEO Lise Voldeng. UAI is an accelerator. We train individuals to lead themselves, their lives, their organizations, and their countries with joyous, prosperous integrity. We forecast developments across every sector of civilization. We develop product solutions for every sector of civilization. And we invest in, advise, and mentor individuals and organizations. ULTRA-AGENT INDUSTRIES INC.[ worldbuilder luxe. for warrior worldbuilders. ] www.ultraagentindustries.com shows:ULTRANOW ICRECREAM BRIEFING: A MOUNTAIN AND MACGYVER Insight courtesy of UAI CEO Lise Voldeng. Title credits music courtesy of UAI CEO Lise Voldeng and Elad Marish. Supported by the Club of Amsterdam. What did I do when I got stuck in a bathroom (while doing laundry in said bathroom) in a cabin on 7 isolated acres on the side of a mountain, where no one else was expected to visit for at least 3 days? I listened to my own knowing, I breathed, I swore, and I morethanMacgyvered, my way. Lisa (Lise) Voldeng: CEO, creator, futurist, and investor. Runs accelerator Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. Loves icecream and integrity. Voldeng consistently forecasts global developments (across every sector of civilization) and successfully implements solutions to help us prosper. She builds brands, markets, organizations, platforms, products, and experiences. She invests in, advises and mentors individuals and organizations who want to prosper integrously. Futurist Portrait: Chris Skinner Chris Skinner is known as an independent commentator on the financial markets and fintech through his blog, the Finanser.com, as author of the bestselling bookDigital Bank and its new sequel ValueWeb. In his day job, he is Chair of the European networking forum: the Financial Services Club. He is on the Advisory Boards of many companies including Innovate Finance, Moven and Meniga, and has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), one of the Top 5 most influential people on BankInfoSecurity’s list of information security leaders, as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal’s Financial News. Described by Seth Wheeler, Brookings Guest Scholar and Former Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy at the White House, as “one of the most authoritative voices on Fintech anywhere”, Chris has previously written many books covering everything from European regulations in banking through the credit crisis to the future of banking. His new book is a sister to his last book, Digital Bank. ValueWeb describes the impact of Fintech and how mobile and blockchain technologies are changing the face of finance in building an internet of value. As a result of the emerging internet of value, banks have to become digitalised, and Digital Bank provides a comprehensive review and analysis of the battle for digital banking and strategies for companies to compete. The Financial Services Club is a network for financial professionals, and focuses on the future of financial services through the delivery of research, analysis, commentary and debate. Founded in 2004, the Financial Services Club meets regularly in Austria, England, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Scotland, Slovakia and Sweden. Mr. Skinner is a regular commentator on BBC News, Sky News, CNBC andBloomberg about banking issues; he is a Judge on many awards programs including the Asian Banker’s Retail Excellence Awards, as well as working closely with leading banks such as HSBC, the Royal Bank of Scotland, Citibank and Société Générale, as well as the World Economic Forum The future of money, trade and finance – Chris Skinner, at USI printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, November 2017, Issue 199
Content Spread of ESGs could herald new global movement Plant trees while you search the web The Future Now Show: Demography of Europe with Michael Akerib Hanlon Lab News about the Future:New report: Establishing Best Practice for Forensic DNA Databases / Changing Societies through Urban Commons Transitions Hashgraph – The Future of Blockchain Recommended Book: Home Made Bio Electronic Arts BLOOM – Smart surface for spatial acoustics ULTRANOW X Briefings: UBERBABE SOS WOW NOW Futurist Portrait: Olakunle Soriyan Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show: Demography of Europe with Michael Akerib “Musings on the future are often quite narrow in scope (e.g. specific technologies) and time. The near future is obviously of great interest as it’s our next page, but it’s one page in a very long book and sometimes you need to read the whole book to get the best sense of what the next page might hold. That approach is taken here when considering the demographics of Europe – the story starts 9000 years ago and spans the planet. Sit back, soak it in, and only then wonder about the future.” – Paul Holister Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Spread of ESGs could herald new global movement By Frank-Jürgen RichterGlobal Times, September 24, 2017 An ESG is a financial product that complies with environmental, social and governance rules, and until recently it was just part of financiers’ jargon – their chat is full of short-form acronyms that many of us do not understand. But recently ESG has come into common parlance. This is good, as it represents a new global inclination to save the planet and to save ourselves from investments we do not understand. Of course, working together in this way is a splendid idea; it creates efficiencies and develops innovative solutions supporting emerging world-wide goals, with many set within the UN Sustainable Development Goals to be met by 2030. ESGs are fast becoming a vital set of criteria for investment development and they demand new measurements of company performance. But there are much broader and more subtle aspects to this movement. Cheating has been commonplace ever since lending and borrowing became institutionalized. William Shakespeare in 1596 aptly commented upon “… this pound of flesh” as something that is owed and ruthlessly claimed in repayment. In more modern times there was the Asian Financial crisis in 1997 expanding out of Thailand, as banks were seen to be over-indebted and could not pay back their customers. China learned much from that and developed its sovereign reserves, thus helping it to weather the 2008 global financial crash emanating from the US. These crashes forced central banks to increase regulation and oversight as well as developing fresh rules such as the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act reforming Wall Street investment and curbing speculation. The EU in 2004 developed the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive, which will be updated by January 2018 as MiFID II (yet another acronym). Although these rulings are primarily US or EU-based, they include all the global operations of firms registered in either the US or EU, in an effort to restrict global corruption. But it is well known that corruption is still widespread, as is the fact that it is the poorest who suffer the most, often losing their jobs if a firm ceases trading while the corrupt boss with good legal aid may well escape punishment. There are many economies that suffer from corruption, especially among the developing nations. The developed world is not exempt, as regulators and the judiciary often bring wrong-doers to trial. One instance is the Libor scandal that was perpetuated by major global banks. The banks falsely set the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), which is the average interest rate underpinning well over $350 trillion in derivatives. The skewed rate benefited the banks in question. The perpetrators have been removed from office and new regulations devised. However, few people connected with this crime have been convicted as the evidence against them was not strong enough, though banks have been heavily fined for allowing the fixing to take place. Other heavy fines for banks have concerned their non-disclosure of hidden savings. Swiss banks have long been known as secretive, closely guarding their clients’ assets – as are certain offshore tax havens. Now global regulations demand that banks open their lists to the relevant tax authorities and failure to do so has resulted in massive fines. This means that rich people have fewer places to hide their undeclared gains. Also, India recently scrapped the use of large-denomination currency notes to crimp their black economy. That shock caused some havoc and temporarily reduced its quarterly growth figures and reduced the wealth of the super-rich by 1 percent. In the future India may halt the use of credit cards, moving instead to biometrics – validating transactions by an eye or thumb scan. I began this piece by suggesting that ESGs are blossoming worldwide. It may be a case of there being a time when influential individuals all have the same idea at approximately the same time. This is noticeable in science when breakthroughs happen in different parts of the world by groups apparently unconnected to each other. Of course they are not “unconnected” as they will have studied the same things and been to the same conferences, but the groundswell ensures the development bursts forth. Perhaps it is time for the world to become more transparent, more inclined to observe better environmental practices, to support better social policies and to adhere to strongly principled rules of governance applied to political as well as commercial practice. We are all facing huge global pressures – it is time to be concerned about our future and it is time for strong global leadership. The 19th National People’s Congress in October may be a defining moment for China to define new developments for the world’s second-largest economy. Dr. Frank-Jürgen Richter is founder and chairman of Horasis, a global visions community dedicated to inspiring our future. Horasis is using its unrivalled history of partnership with corporations from emerging markets to create a powerful platform for cooperation between emerging and developed markets. Plant trees while you search the web Ecosia is a social business run by a small group of dedicated people. We work together to create tools that empower everyone to easily do good by planting trees. We believe our trees have the power to make this world a better place for everyone in it. Ecosia is a social business run by a small group of dedicated people. We work together to create tools that empower everyone to easily do good by planting trees. We believe our trees have the power to make this world a better place for everyone in it. The Future Now Show Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show November 2017 Demography of Europe withMichael Akerib Musings on the future are often quite narrow in scope (e.g. specific technologies) and time. The near future is obviously of great interest as it’s our next page, but it’s one page in a very long book and sometimes you need to read the whole book to get the best sense of what the next page might hold. That approach is taken here when considering the demographics of Europe – the story starts 9000 years ago and spans the planet. Sit back, soak it in, and only then wonder about the future. — Paul Holister Table of ContentHistory 1:16Now 25:52Migration 28:27Opportunities 48:58 The Future Now Showfeatures Credits Michael Akerib, Rector, Swiss UMEF University. www.umef-university.chPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text The Future Now Show Hanlon Lab Hanlon Lab is largely devoted to camouflage and the highly interdisciplinary approaches necessary to study its mechanisms and functions. We conduct a good deal of field work to understand the sensory world and natural behaviors of marine animals that can change their appearance within one or a few seconds. Our main focus is on cephalopods although recently we have studied flatfish, filefish and groupers that can also produce Rapid Adaptive Camouflage on a time scale somewhat similar to squid, octopus and cuttlefish. We also study terrestrial organisms when appropriate. Our greatest source of inspiration – and our guidance of laboratory studies – has come from field research. We conduct a wide range of experimentation in the laboratory to tease out the details of camouflage that we observe and quantify from field studies. These include mechanisms of visual perception and sensory integration as well as the functional morphology of the complex skin that produces the changeable body patterns. We are highly collaborative and work at multiple levels of integration: from molecules to behavior to ecology. Our central focus is the whole organism, and we use a comparative approach in nearly all of our studies. We often combine art and science in our research, and in some cases our work extends to materials science and engineering. We are consistently involved in public outreach, particularly through natural history television and science-based stories on the world wide web. We welcome inquiries regarding our research. Octopus vulgaris Camouflage Change News about the Future New report: Establishing Best Practice for Forensic DNA Databases This report was developed by the Forensic Genetics Policy Initiative using an innovative consultative approach. The final report reflects input from civil society groups around the world from a human rights perspective. The project began as a result of civil society concerns about the lack of public input and debate regarding the development and expansion of forensic DNA databases around the world. The seven-year project has included extensive monitoring of press articles and legislation from 132 countries, visits to a number of countries with forensic DNA databases or developing new legislation (including UK, USA, China, India, Brazil, South Korea), and extensive discussion with civil society groups, policy makers, lawyers, forensic scientists and academics from many other countries. The project has taken the innovative and unique approach of developing best practice international standards by engaging civil society in extensive discussion and debate. As a result, this report is the most wide-ranging and definitive analysis of human rights safeguards for forensic DNA databases that is available worldwide. The report Changing Societies through Urban Commons Transitions examines the re-emergence of the urban commons as both a bottom-up emergence by citizens/commoners and a radical municipal administrative configuration. Starting with an exploration of the relationship between cities and the commons, with a particular focus on the recent revival and growth of urban commons, we attempt to answer the question of why urban commons are so crucial for a social-ecological transition. Then we review grassroots initiatives for urban commons transitions both in the global north and south, but with specific attention towards the municipal coalitions of Barcelona, Bologna, Naples, Frome and Ghent. As a conclusion we propose an institutional framework for urban commons transitions. We look to answer the following questions: i) what can cities do to respond to the new demands of citizens as commoners; ii) what their role may be in facilitating a social-ecological transition; and iii) what institutional adaptations would favour such a role. Hashgraph – The Future of Blockchain Hashgraph – The future of decentralized technology. Core concepts For the full document THE SWIRLDS HASHGRAPH CONSENSUS ALGORITHM: FAIR, FAST, BYZANTINE FAULT TOLERANCE click here The hashgraph consensus algorithm is based on the following core concepts.• Transactions – any member can create a signed transaction at any time. All members get a copy of it, and the community reaches Byzantine agreement on the order of those transactions.• Fairness – it should be difficult for a small group of attackers to unfairlyinfluence the order of transactions that is chosen as the consensus.• Gossip – information spreads by each member repeatedly choosing another member at random, and telling them all they know• Hashgraph – a data structure that records who gossiped to whom, and in what order.• Gossip about gossip – the hashgraph is spread through the gossip protocol. The information being gossiped is the history of the gossip itself, so it is “gossip about gossip”. This uses very little bandwidth overhead beyond simply gossiping the transactions alone.• Virtual voting – every member has a copy of the hashgraph, so Alice can calculate what vote Bob would have sent her, if they had been running a traditional Byzantine agreement protocol that involved sending votes. So Bob doesn’t need to actually her the vote. Every member can reach Byzantine agreement on any number of decisions, without a single vote ever being sent. The hashgraph alone is sufficient. So zero bandwidth is used, beyond simply gossiping the hashgraph.• Famous witnesses – The community could put a list of n transactions into order by running separate Byzantine agreement protocols on O(n log n) different yes/no questions of the form “did event x come before event y?” A much faster approach is to pick just a few events (vertices in the hashgraph),to be called witnesses, and define a witness to be famous if the hashgraph shows that most members received it fairly soon after it was created. Then it’s sufficient to run the Byzantine agreement protocol only for witnesses, deciding for each witness the single question “is this witness famous?” Once Byzantine agreement is reached on the exact set of famous witnesses, it is easy to derive from the hashgraph a fair total order for all events.• Strongly seeing – given any two vertices x and y in the hashgraph, it can be immediately calculated whether x can strongly see y, which is defined to be true if they are connected by multiple directed paths passing through enough members. This concept allows the key lemma to be proved: that if Alice and Bob are both able to calculate Carol’s virtual vote on a given question, then Alice and Bob get the same answer. That lemma forms the foundation for the rest of the mathematical proof of Byzantine agreement with probability one. Mance Harmon, CEO of Swirlds, describes Hashgraph compared to the rest of the market, both in terms of performance and security. Learn more about Proof of Work, Leader-Based, Economy-Based, Voting-Based, and Virtual Voting Systems. September 19th, 2017, TechCrunch Disrupt San Francisco Recommended Book Home Made Bio Electronic Artsby D. Landwehr, V. Kuni “Science for everyone” is the motto of a new movement involving biology and electronics. Here the do-it-yourself approach that is already well-established on the electronics and computer scene is applied to the field of natural sciences, blurring the borderlines between art and science. The artists and scientists who work in the interdisciplinary way refer to themselves as bio-hackers or bio-punks and deliberately take up the creative impetus provided by those two movements. Their research aims to communicate scientific knowledge that is otherwise reserved for insiders only. BLOOM – Smart surface for spatial acoustics BLOOM : A smart, shape-shifting textile surface for acoustic modulation from Yeadon Space Agency on Vimeo. BLOOM regulates acoustic issues in large spaces by opening and closing a knitted surface to provide the right amount of sound attenuation when it is needed. During the development of this project, our team was captivated by the idea of an acoustic cloud that can be folded as simply as origami paper, by using technical knits, smart materials, coded movement, and small modular components. We envision the invention to be suspended from ceilings, where it is sensitive to sound and therefore interacts and behaves intuitively, opening or closing to create a responsive environment. The structure of BLOOM’s surface opens to absorb sound waves and prevent direct reflection of noise. When reverberant sound is desirable, the surface closes up to permit increased reflection around the space that BLOOM inhabits. The geometry of the knitted origami surface is based on pedesis, wherein slightly dissimilar triangular shapes repeat in an aperiodic manner, thus absorbing a broad range of sound frequencies. Additionally, the fibers that are used in the technical knit have a fluffy, hollow structure, with desirable properties for absorbing sound. The fluffy surface interrupts sound reflection so that the sound waves propagate within the surface itself. An increase in the volume of noise that one experiences in a room causes the surface to unfold, exposing more and more fibrous surface area to absorb the unwanted din. Hence, BLOOM can manage the quality of sound that is needed for a specific situation and crowd. Each flower cluster that makes up the surface of BLOOM is designed and tailored from fiber to shape. By being able to custom design the fiber yarns, we control the acoustic qualities of BLOOM, and its lightweight construction. Every single stitch is digitally programmed, which creates the shape and folds instantly for direct application. PRODUCTION Creating a modular system provides us the freedom to easily customize BLOOM for clients. The system could be installed in intimate restaurants and conference rooms, or large airports, schools, auditoriums, and libraries. Each basic module contains a standardized actuator component with a six arms that are digitally controlled by a microprocessor, combined with weighted battens that are integrated into the textile. The entire system is designed to be infinitely variable. Thus, BLOOM has the capability to be adjusted in scale, material and color, due to the use of digital knitting technology and the repetition of modular, manufactured components. The production of BLOOM for a specific installation would ideally be done near the location of the project, by providing digital files to regional fabricators, but the entire system can also be easily shipped for installation. The lightweight, folding pieces makes transport relatively efficient and inexpensive. ULTRANOW X BRIEFING: UBERBABE SOS WOW NOW ULTRANOW briefings are advisory bullets traversing every sector of civilization – providing forecasting, analysis and advisory insights on how to prosper integrously. ULTRANOW briefings are brought to you by Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. and UAI CEO Lise Voldeng. UAI is an accelerator. We train individuals to lead themselves, their lives, their organizations, and their countries with joyous, prosperous integrity. We forecast developments across every sector of civilization. We develop product solutions for every sector of civilization. We develop and direct missions. And we invest in, advise, and mentor individuals and organizations. ULTRA-AGENT INDUSTRIES INC.[ worldbuilder luxe. for warrior worldbuilders. ] www.ultraagentindustries.com shows : Insight courtesy of UAI CEO Lise Voldeng. Title credits music courtesy of UAI CEO Lise Voldeng and Elad Marish. Supported by the Club of Amsterdam. In the covered wagon days of the Internet, I used to tell my Hollywood peers something like, “If you can tell a beautiful story around a campfire, you can tell a beautiful story in any medium.” Today I say, it started it starts with love, singing true. Here is an excerpt from my triple trilogy of my true campfire stories, “uberbabe: sos (stars over shootland), wow (worlds over war), now (nucleus of wonder).” Lisa (Lise) Voldeng: CEO, creator, futurist, and investor. Runs accelerator Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. Loves icecream and integrity. Voldeng consistently forecasts global developments (across every sector of civilization) and successfully implements solutions to help us prosper. She builds brands, markets, organizations, platforms, products, and experiences. She invests in, advises and mentors individuals and organizations who want to prosper integrously. Futurist Portrait: Olakunle Soriyan Olakunle Soriyan – a MasterMind .. Futurist .. Thought Revolutionist .. NATION-BUILDER .. NORMALCY is NOT my thing .. & CONFORMITY is an ADVERSARY. Olakunle Soriyan is based in Nigeria. THE OLAKUNLE SORIYAN COMPANY is a research-driven training, consulting and coaching nation-building social enterprise mapping out solutions to African challenges, developing insight on the most pressing issues, shaping culture and impacting the course of history by mobilizing, inspiring and empowering society’s thinkers, decision makers and influencers; as well as supporting and defending the most vulnerable. “Why I Exist? I am a research-driven nation-building entity mapping out solutions to African challenges, developing insight on the most pressing issues, shaping culture and impacting the course of history by mobilizing, inspiring and empowering society’s thinkers, decision makers and influencers; as well as supporting and defending the most vulnerable amongst us. I primarily exist to improve the state of Africa by ensuring that the people, institutions and organizations of Africa are on the list of the world’s most purposeful, inventive and impactful entities by the year 2035 and beyond. This is why I exist. It is timeless and will never change.” Why Nigeria has bad leaders printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, December 2017, Issue 200
Content Europe’s slow suicide by Michael Akerib Europe – too old to grow? by Miraç Yazici The Future Now Show: Happy Rain with Isabelle Antunès Cryptocurrencies & AI with Quinn Michaels News about the Future: Metasonics / NexLoop Build on Water Recommended Book: Eating Promiscuously: Adventures in the Future of Food by James McWilliams Music with Plants with Mileece Futurist Portrait: Morgaine Gaye Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show: Happy Rain with Isabelle Antunès Storytelling is a fundamental part of what makes humans successful. This is a story about how farming communities in Bangladesh were transformed by an idea that allowed them to profit from the monsoon season instead of migrating away and waiting for it to pass. But it’s also a story about a story, about the documentary that was made and how this has been woven in to the evolution and spread of this transformative idea. – Paul Holister Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Europe’s slow suicide by Michael Akerib, Owner of Innovax, Rector, Swiss UMEF University. www.umef-university.ch ‘I felt that Europe, in its state of derangement, had passed its own death sentence – our sacred home of Europe, both the cradle and the Parthenon of Western civilization.’Stefan Zweig ‘The ageing of populations has touched several populations in history: Greece, Rome and Venice are the most famous examples. Every time, this has led to the death of that particular population.’Alfred Sauvy A brief history The original European population was Homo antecessor and Heidelberg followed by Neanderthals eventually replaced by the Homo sapiens migrants. There seems thus to be an original bias in favor of Europeans as the Heidelberg man had a larger brain than the original Asian population. It is our ancestors who invented agriculture. Migration is a phenomenon as old as humanity and is a well-proven strategy to have better opportunities for both the migrants and their children as well as for escaping natural catastrophes or political oppression. There have also been cases of forced migration, and the slave trade has been one of them.The Dark Ages saw a general decline in Europe – of population, but also of trade, and conversely, an increase in immigration and epidemics. However, in the later period, and until the thirteenth century, the population tripled, reaching 60 million. Europe had a period of intense technological progress in the first millennium, sometimes based on original Chinese inventions and sometimes on inventions that had originated during the period of the Roman Empire, then forgotten and rediscovered. Black Death, in the 13th and 14th century led to a population decline. The 15th century saw the beginning of the Age of Discovery during which European explorers and sea captains sought new trade routes and new lands. Improved ships and firepower allowed them to succeed in acquiring precious metals such as gold and silver as well as spices, but also food and oil. It boosted several industries such as shipbuilding and fisheries. Straddling the 18th and 19th centuries, Malthus (1766 – 1834) published his Essay on the Principles of Population, putting forward the argument that the exhaustion of limited resources such as land and food would limit population growth. Hence, population growth will be limited, he thought, by famines. He has been proven wrong due to technology, the import of foodstuff from the new lands, immigration of Europeans towards other countries and early forms of family planning. The Industrial Revolution, which started at the same time as Malthus published his book, saw the European population grow by 100 million in a century, to reach 266 million by 1850. Technology no doubt contributed greatly by decreasing poverty and thus allowed more money to be used for bringing up the children. Population growth continued to reach 487 million by 1920. Urban centers, whether London or Paris, grew at an even faster rate. European population growth took place in spite of an important child mortality,, with half the children dying before the age of 5 when those with the poorest parents will be placed to work in factories in conditions unimaginable today. Causes of death of the population generally are dysentery, influenza, plague, smallpox and typhus. Even though worldwide population grew to reach 900 million by 1800 with both Europe’s and China’s population doubling, mostly due to a slight increase in the birth rates, by 1850, Europe’s population overtook that of China in a demographic and economic breakthrough that has been called The Great Divergence. The contribution of Europe and the Americas to world output increased to reach 51%, with a corresponding decrease of China’s share. Europe’s Industrial Revolution was the fruit of slave labor, unfair trade practices, and cheap energy from coal. The impact of the Industrial Revolution also touched agriculture and allowed an increase in productivity and therefore an improved nutrition for the entire population. Families were able to finance and provide financing for the new industries. Child mortality decreased due to the reduction in infectious diseases. Families reduced the number of births. Reduced smoking, improved nutrition and increased exercise contributed greatly in improving longevity. So did the frequent use of soap and the boiling of water. Europe will thus take advantage of the demographic dividend. The increased number of the working-age population led to an immigration boom to the American continent where labor was scarce. In fact, 60 million Europeans immigrated to the American and African continents as well as to Australasia in the 19th century. This allowed Europeans to control increasingly large amounts of land, with a peak of 84% of the world’s land in 1914. The twentieth centuryThe 20th century saw the world’s population soar from 1.6 billion to 6 billion, infant mortality drop by between 70% and 80%, and life expectancy double to reach 60. Since the medical industry was focusing on adults rather than children, it is the adults who saw their diseases being successfully controlled – dysentery, malaria, scurvy, syphilis, among others. Vaccination was also a major step in reducing mortality. Simultaneously, a number of public health improvements took place particularly with regards to milk and water supply, the poisoning of rats, slum clearing and swamp draining. The end result was the near eradication of death from infectious diseases, allowing a doubling of life expectancy. Europe witnessed a fast growing economy from 1945 to 1973, making it the second fastest growing zone after Japan, by whatever economic measure. 1973 brutally ended that period. Production in many industries fell considerably, jobs moved from industry to services, high unemployment followed. Average salaries decreased. Very large migratory movements occurred in the 20th century, essentially due to wars and to the decolonization process and the consequent break up of certain countries such as India. Today The European Union is today the world’s largest single market and its currency, the Euro, the world’s second biggest currency. The level of unemployment which peaked at 12% in 2013 is now back to 9.5%. However, 40% of the jobs are not permanent positions and nearly 20% are part-time positions. Youth unemployment remains a major problem. This is partly due to the fact that legislation protects people who have jobs and therefore corporations are afraid to hire. Many Europeans have doubts and even negative attitudes towards the European Union, viewing it as a bureaucratic organization to which they do not relate. The numerous rules and regulations are viewed as an infringement on freedoms. There is also the issue of the refugees to which the EU does not seem able to give a coherent response. Decolonization and economic expansion in Britain and France brought to their shores migrants from the former colonies with major population flows from 1960 to 1973, reaching up to 6% of the European workforce. It was a very different population from today’s migrants. Unemployment, large wage differentials between Europe and developing countries and inside their own country, are the driving factors of today’s immigration flow. However, increasing salaries in developing countries appears to be counterproductive as it allows individuals and families to be able to afford a safer crossing into a host country. Today there is an estimated 250 million migrants, of which only 10% are women, including both legal and illegal migrants, representing 3% of the world’s population. Immigration from Africa to Europe is not likely to shrink, in particular due to wars and climatic warming, to the delight of corporations but to the watchful eyes of governments that have to bear the cost of social services. 2015 saw over one million immigrants arrive in Germany. The total number of legal migrants in the EU is of 11 million and there is an unknown number of illegal migrants. Many immigrants do not integrate and live in ghettos, uninterested by education and therefore limiting their access to employment with a carry-over effect of up to three generations. However, this is definitely not the case for all immigrants. Over a third of them have a college education and many of them have an entrepreneurial spirit. Immigrants have been blamed by working class people of having taken their jobs, when in fact this is due to the transfer of production units to Asia. The labor pool has become global and a new category of workers retain a base in their home country which they leave a few months per year to work abroad and return with their savings. A more serious issue has been the fear of loss of national identity. Systems and procedures to halt migration can be put in place and there are presently discussions in the EU to decide which, if any, are to be adopted, in particular concerning refugees and asylum-seeker. The United Nations refugee agency numbers them, across the world as being 10 million. Some have been admitted legally, others have reached Europe’s shores by raft. In view of the diverging points of view of the various member states of the EU, taking a decision is not easy and has led to major tensions in the Union. Immigration has been considered a problem to which the state should offer solutions. Nowadays, there seems to be some agreement among the Member States’ governments in order to jointly deal with questions concerning immigration and asylum: the impossibility of tackling this problem independently. At the same time, the peculiarities of each State in relation to this phenomenon and the perceptions and national normative references regarding the content of the immigration process complicate the attainment of clear and binding agreements. The futureThe future is unpredictable, but trends can be detected and projections made. With the present fertility rates, Europe’s population in 2060 will represent only 5% of the world’s. The continent’s GDP will have dropped significantly. It will also be the world’s oldest region with a median age of 45. Immigration cannot be viewed as a reasonable solution as it would require allowing 13 million migrants per year if one is to keep the ratio of 4 to 5 active persons for each pensioner. It seems we can safely say that Europe is dying by suicide both through the sharp decline in demography and through its attitude to the rest of the world, almost excusing itself for its very existence. The massive entry of foreigners, in particular from the Middle East and Africa, is changing the ethnic composition and the culture of the continent in ways that were not predicted as assimilation has been the key word over the last fifty years. However, it has not happened. The hybrid culture that many intellectuals believed in has also not happened. Instead, we are witnessing a rise in the number of Moslems entering the country and maintaining their own way of life and wishing to Islamize Europe. The Islamization of Europe is unlikely to happen in the immediate future as the number of Moslems is not sufficient and unlikely to grow out of proportion. Further, the third generation is generally not sufficiently religious. The death of Europe? Europeans generally have lost faith in their political institutions and Europe seems to have gone into a decaying process like previous old civilizations before our time. One of the most important issues has become the change in Europe’s ethnic composition. The divide has been between those praising European culture, identity and liberal values, and wishing to maintain it, on the one hand and those praising diversity on the other hand. The position of this last group is based, among other thoughts on the fact that there is no country in the world that has a homogeneous population and identity due to the various migrations that have occurred over centuries. Diversity assumes that immigrants will want to blend and not maintain their own ethnic profiles. There is also the issue of access to jobs and to public services. The confrontation between the two has led those in favor of diversity to accuse the others of racism. What is certain is that the liberal values so dear to the Europeans are severely put into question. Movements closely recalling fascism are gaining ground and democratic forces seem reluctant to fight for their own values. Europe is committing a slow suicide. It no longer believes in its right of existence. The long build-up of European culture seems to have hit a wall. Our children and grandchildren will soon be taught at school that they should be ashamed of being European. Europe – too old to grow? by Miraç Yazici, Intern at Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, Nevsehir, Turkey The elderly population is rising faster than all younger age groups globally. It is a global phenomenon and called population ageing. Population aging is the increase of the share of people aged 65 and over among other age groups in a society, due to rising life expectancy and fertility declines. Europe has the greatest percentage of population aged 60 or over, with 25 per cent. Hang on tight, population aged 60 or over will reach nearly 250 millions in 2050 and it is more than one- third of European population. [1] Facts about population agingWhen looking at population aging from an economic perspective, the question is: can an ageing society sustain growth? A recent study conducted in US finds that a 10 percent increase in the population ages 60 and over decreases the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5 per cent. Two- thirds of the reduction is due to slower growth in the labor productivity of workers, while one-third is from slower labor force growth. It also finds that GDP growth will slow by 1.2 percent this decade and 0.6 per cent next decade due to population aging in US. [2] Population aging leads to declining workforce, lower fertility, and an increase in the age dependency ratio (the ratio of working-age to old-age groups). The demographic age dependency ratio set to nearly double over the long- term.This implies that the The European Union would move from having 4 working- age people for every person aged 65 and over to about 2 working-age persons by 2060. Total workforce in European Union members is expected to contract by 11.8 per cent between 2020 and 2060. [3] Population ageing will tend to lower both workforce participation and savings ratios, This process will negatively impact economics growth in European Union. Total labour supply in The European Union is projected to stabilise between 2013 and 2023, while it is projected to decline by 8.2 per cent between 2023 and 2060, representing 19 million less people. [4] In addition to rising old-age dependency, declines in the share of young workers among working population are believed to have negative consequences on innovation. There is a fresh study about population ageing and innovation relationship. Study on OECD countries, finds that population aging leads to declines in innovation activity. [5] Last but not the least, growing older population means higher healthcare costs and long- term healthcare spending may cause a fiscal sustainability risk. Increasing costs of public systems of health care, pensions and social protections for a growing older population will also have negative impact on economic growth through higher tax rates. [6] Population aging is creating new opportunitiesWhile having mentioned adverse effects of population ageing, there are also positive effects of this global phenomenon like big business opportunities. Baby boomers travel more than ever before, so travel and tourism industry will benefit from demographic transition. [7] Additionally, companies in healthcare sector will also enjoy increasing profits. Based on US, an investment bank’s research found that people over 65 spends five times more than under 25, on healthcare. [8] Also growing demand for independent living communities, assisted living communities and nursing homes will boost real estate sector. [9] Companies have their own methods to tackle with consequences of demographic change in their labor markets, which increasingly consist of older workers. BMW is one of them, a pilot production line was staffed with workers with an average age of 47, to represent a year-2017 mix of employees. which solve increasing older workers problem. [10] To some extent, there are more sectors benefiting from population ageing like financial services, pharmaceuticals and leisure services. Growth of the elderly population in Europe is effecting society in economic, social, political aspects. In the next decades, Europe will face population ageing related challenges and opportunities intensively. It doens’t have to be a time bomb. Every kind of change has pros and cons. Companies in European economies, which can adapt fast and efficient will mostly benefit from this unique demographic transition terms [1] United Nations, Population Division, Population Facts, No:2017/1, accessed on 31 August 2017. [2] The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity, Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen and David Powell, accessed on 31 August 2017. [3] Europe’s Shrinking, Aging Population, Stratfor, 13 June 2012, accessed on 31 August 2017. [4] The 2015 Ageing Report, European Economy 3/2015, accessed on 31 August 2017, European Commision. [5] Medium-Run Implications of Changing Demographic Structures for the Macro-Economy, Yunus Aksoy, Henrique S. Basso, Ron P. Smith, National Institute Economic Review, Volume: 241 issue: 1, page(s): 58-64, accessed on 31 August 2017. [6] Population Ageing is One of the Greatest Challenges Facing the 21st Century, thewire.in, Joseph Chamie, 16 August 2017, accessed on 31 August 2017. [7] Forget millennial backpackers – globe-trotting baby boomers are transforming travel, 06 April 2017, accessed on 31 August 2017 [8] How to make money from the world’s ageing population, The Telegraph , Richar Dyson, 20 July 2013, accessed on 31 August 2017. [9] How ToMake Money From The Global Aging Megatrend,,Forbes, Richard Eisenberg, 9 May 2016, accessed on 26 August 2017. [10] The Globe: How BMW Is Defusing the Demographic Time Bomb, Harvard Business Review, March 2010, accessed on 13 September 2017. The Future Now Show Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show December 2017 Happy Rain withIsabelle Antunès Storytelling is a fundamental part of what makes humans successful. This is a story about how farming communities in Bangladesh were transformed by an idea that allowed them to profit from the monsoon season instead of migrating away and waiting for it to pass. But it’s also a story about a story, about the documentary that was made and how this has been woven in to the evolution and spread of this transformative idea. – Paul Holister Support and collaborations required to use Happy Rain to provide 5 million people with food, jobs and improved livelihood in floodplains! Turning floods into an assetin BangladeshProject proposal presented by Dr. Isabelle Antunès Credits Isabelle Antunès, Documentary film maker, Francewww.isabelleantunes.com/contactwww.isabelleantunes.com/happy-rain Paul Holister, Editor, Summary Text The Future Now Show Cryptocurrencies & AI Quinn Michaels and Jason Goodman to discuss AI and investigate the connections between cryptocurrency and Artificial Intelligence. The SingularityNET protocol enables a global AI marketplace. As it matures, it will contribute to a decentralized, market-based artificial general intelligence for the benefit of all. News about the Future Metasonics Metasonics technology has been developed by a team of researchers at the Universities of Sussex and Bristol.Enhanced control over sound will give technology greater power to enhance people’s lives. From bespoke therapeutic wearables to personalised multi-sensory experiences, Metasonics will give customers the flexibility and freedom to do much more with products.Controlling acoustic fields is crucial in diverse applications such as loudspeaker design, ultrasound imaging and therapy, or acoustic particle manipulation. Here, using a process of analogue-to-digital conversion and wavelet decomposition, we develop the notion of quantal meta-surfaces. The quanta here are small, pre-manufactured three-dimensional units – which we call metamaterial bricks – each encoding a specific phase delay. These bricks can be assembled into meta-surfaces to generate any diffraction-limited acoustic field. This powerful methodology dramatically simplifies the design of acoustic devices and provides a key-step towards realising spatial sound modulators Team NexLoop developed the AquaWeb to help urban local food producers collect, filter, store, and distribute atmospheric moisture with a modular, all-in-one water sourcing and management system. AquaWeb harnesses freely available rain and fog and uses passive strategies to distribute this water so that urban farms, including greenhouses, indoor vertical farms, and container farms, can save energy and become more resilient to disturbances.Each aspect of AquaWeb’s design was inspired by living systems. These include how cribellate orb weaver spider webs collect fog from the air, how drought-tolerant plants like the crystalline ice plant store water, and how mycorrhizal fungi like the Jersey cow mushroom distribute water. The team also looked to the dwarf honey bee’s hexagonal nest structure for AquaWeb’s efficient and modular design. How Nanotechnology Will Bring The End of Scarcity Venezia Japan to build cities in the ocean Building for the future featuring Koen Olthuis The world’s first floating city will emerge in 2020 Recommended Book Eating Promiscuously: Adventures in the Future of Foodby James McWilliams The human practice of farming food has failed. There are 7,500 known varieties of domesticated apples; we regularly eat about five. Seventy-five percent of the world’s food derives from five animals and twelve plants. Factory-farmed meat is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions (about 14 percent, larger than transportation) and consumes 75 percent of the water in drought-prone regions such as the West. We are stuck in a rut of limited choices, and the vast majority of what we eat is detrimental to our health and the welfare of the planet. But what if we could eliminate agriculture as we know it? What if we could start over? James McWilliams’s search for a more expansive palate leads him to those who are actively exploring the fringes of what we can eat, a group of outliers seeking nutrition innovation outside the industrial food system. Here, we meet insect manufacturers, seaweed harvesters, road kill foragers, plant biologists, and oyster farmers who seek to open both our minds and our mouths – and to overturn our most basic assumptions about food, health, and ethics. Eating Promiscuously generates hope for a more tasteful future – one in which we eat thousands of foods rather than dozens – with a new philosophy that could save both ourselves and our planet. Music with Plants Mileece is a sonic artist and environmental designer who’s developed the technology to give silent seedlings a portal to their own sonic expression. Mileece is the stage name of Mileece Abson, an English sound artist and environmental designer. She makes music with plants. Meet the Sonic Artist Making Music with Plants: Sound Builders Futurist Portrait: Morgaine Gaye Dr Morgaine Gaye is Director of Bellwether: Food Trends, an annual B2B future-food trend research compendium and has her own healthfood product range of functional food blends called Dr Gaye, which is sold globally online. Morgaine looks at food and eating from a social, cultural, economic, trend, branding and geo-political perspective. Her work involves consulting for food companies and manufacturers, delivering bespoke trend briefings and new product development ideation. “As a Food Futurologist, I don’t look into crystal balls and predict that the future is filled with tall, dark handsome waiters but I do get to talk about food in all different contexts and capacities (I don’t make tubes of food for space ships, or invent new substances like edible lycra – although I’d quite like to and I’m open to offers…) I am passionate about what I do because of how food affects us all on a daily basis. I have a team of wonderful researchers who help me search, scour, interview, write and compile an food trend compendium Bellwether : Food Trends www.bellwetherft.com which forecasts 3 years in advance and I present and deliver some of that content or more bespoke research. Food is a complex topic and involves society, behaviour, geo-politics, culture, beliefs, history, trends, fads, art, marketing, sensorial perceptions, biology and, well, almost everything. On this site you’ll see a variety of ways in which these elements inform different aspects of the work. I apply modern scientific research to history, nature and global cultural theory, branding, marketing and consumer behaviour and help ad agencies, PR companies and brands with new brand extensions/NPD, future gazing and trend reports. Amongst other things, this also involves public and private lectures/seminars, keynote speaking, academic research and publications, journalistic insights into food trends and helping established companies to revive their food brands. In short, as a Food Futurologist, I explore all the facets of food; future food trends, why we eat what we eat, believe what we believe and what the future of food looks like printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, February 2018, Issue 202
Content Does Passion Ignite Perception by Mara Lemanis The Library of Congress The Future Now Show: Social Banking with Christian Heyner World’s biggest ‘smart city’ to rise in Philippines News about the Future:This is how money grows from trees / UNICEF Sudan Humanitarian Situation Report, December 2017 How Nanotechnology Will Bring The End of Scarcity by James Burke Recommended Book:Dawn of the New Everything: A Journey Through Virtual Reality by Jaron Lanier Common Sense – helping kids thrive in a world of media and technology Futurist Portrait: Bertalan Meskó Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show: Social Banking with Christian Heyner It is a strange and unfortunate fact of life that many things people in the developed world pay little for cost substantially more in the developing world. One of these is banking, often costly in the developing world while in much of the developed world banks now offer you money to encourage you to open a charges-free account. Meanwhile, the once highly praised micro-credit systems are now charging loan shark interest rates in some poor countries. This is the story of a new attempt to change all that by creating a global low-cost banking service cleverly designed to be accessible to the poorest. And you can play a part. – Paul Holister Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Does Passion Ignite Perception by Mara Lemanis So many of us have grown up with and then outgrown the division between passion and reason. But early imprinting still urges us to demote one or the other as we set out on our personal course or career, convictions intact. Hamlet’s cry: “Give me that man that is not passion’s slave, and I will wear him in my heart’s core,” is a great motto for many. Conversely, in The Mirror and the Lamp, the great critic M.H. Abrams refers to a quote from the 18th c. playwright John Dennis: “The more passion there is, the better the Poetry.” But I admit to having read poems where passion peaks into barbaric yawps. We’ve been flooded by many therapeutic formulas both to quiet raging passions and skim top-heavy doses of intellection. One of these, especially trendy in today’s culture, is “Mindfulness,” which some objective heads deride as “McMindfulness” — a marketing tool. In fact the mindfulness technique has proved effective at reducing anxiety and stress in many people, deprogramming harmful emotions and addictive passions. It’s an approach that works. Apparently it’s also a program that has become a commodity. To Be or Not To Be Mindful We know it too as a concept birthed through Buddhism. Its original aim was meant to generate unbiased perception of actual events in the world, understanding of one’s own involvement in those events, and compassionate reaction toward all participants, especially those suffering adversity. It underscored exercising compassion for those on opposite ends to one’s own perceptions. But as practiced in the west mindfulness often glosses over the original Buddhist emphasis on compassion, which welcomes foreign and contrary viewpoints that challenge our personal perceptions. Yet following the western model, it can’t be denied that when we’re less depressed or anxious, or less obsessed, we’re prone to make more room for the anxieties and woes of others. I think it’s worth reflecting on how compassion swells into passion. Compassion absorbs sympathy for another person’s sensibility and pain and grows into a strong desire to stop the pain. At that point it transforms into empathy; so it makes sense that strong desire equates with passion. But this is not the common measure. Compulsion or Passion? Clinical psychologists distinguish between compulsive passion and voluntary passion. Clearly compulsions are not under one’s control, whereas voluntary passions are engaged in freely. One of the most valuable insights of Buddhism is how it alerts us to awareness of things in relation to each other, evolving into an awareness of their relative value – prodding us to remember (Smriti) that whatever emotion we experience exists in relation to a mosaic of feelings with either benevolent or noxious outcomes. In remembering, one rises past present-centered, non-judgmental mindfulness toward insights keenly retained. Often this catalyzes a call to ethical action. In the west mindfulness strives to dispose of prejudices, to foster awareness of the moment – the self present in the moment. But retention and remembering can also stir our attention toward sensory experience. Which doesn’t mean that the sensation we have retained necessarily craves after something. Instead it embraces the experience (anubhavah) of our being in the world, often inspired through the medium of art – music, dance, drama, poetry – and leads us to self-knowledge. Because this knowledge can come as a sudden insight, its culmination can be enlightenment, self-revelation, even rapture. Insights Inviting Ecstasy What elation, for instance, when we evoke the memories of perfumes that suffused our senses as we strolled in a garden full of lilacs, freesias, or honeysuckle, or tread through a forest, inhaling the fragrance of pine. And though the moment of exhilaration is transitory, it unites the self with the natural world. It boosts consciousness. Mindful memory enables us to freely recall the feeling of blissful attention evoked by strands of music, images in particular paintings, glints of wit and vision released by certain poems and texts. Or the euphoric scent of intimacy when we make love in contrast to the tang of physical contact when we have sex. Embracing one’s awakened being expresses itself too in the continuous pleasure of work we perform at the peak of our abilities and give to others. In all these ways mindfulness morphs into self-actualization. The character of self-actualized people is autonomous. They don’t cater to societal approval; they seek fulfillment in purposes beyond themselves. Such people detail many instances of “peak experiences” kindred to a sense of ecstasy and oneness with the universe, sustained within a strong, calm, centered self. Probably the most dramatic kind of mindfulness beyond ego, involving millions of people, is witnessed in social reform. This is well-documented in the passionate self-sacrifice of persons like Gandhi; Martin Luther King; the civil rights worker Viola Liuzzo, a white woman relentlessly struggling against segregation before she was felled by a gunman. Their biographies are clear accounts of empathy with those made wretched by injustice and detail their passionate efforts to kindle mankind’s humanity. The passion for reform among such people can’t be reduced to ego drives. They consider themselves as a vehicle to rouse others who are more concerned with personal acquisition, or, for that matter, personal liberation. Critical Thinking From the Buddha Here is where the standardized objective of Buddhism – nirvana, which translates to no/not craving – branches off from liberation for oneself (with the rationale that what you do for yourself automatically contributes to others) and grows into the pursuit of liberation for all humanity. And here again, it is persons like Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, born into the caste of untouchables, who launched human rights campaigns for India’s oppressed and later converted to Buddhism; A.T. Ariyaratne, a high school teacher who helmed a grassroots movement to upgrade agriculture, education, and health that was enacted throughout 15 thousand villages in Sri Lanka; and Buddhadasa Bhikku, who initiated “engaged Buddhism” in Thailand, motivating Theravada monks to do actual work in their communities instead of solely cultivating meditative mastery. Many of these adherents have become “Development Monks” in Thailand and Cambodia. They engage in physical as well as spiritual development to reforest and recultivate the environment and foster economic growth without destroying the countryside. All these movements inspired mindfulness not just beyond ego and passionate avowal but beyond the formal creeds of Buddhism. It was Gautama Buddha himself who warned against accepting his own teachings without first studying, thinking, observing, and investigating before deciding what is true. He strongly advocated freedom of thought and freedom of inquiry. And he invited criticism. Not negation of thought or rationality. Gautama’s attitude highlights the kind of mindfulness in which attentive thoughts are followed by actions that bear fruit. These percepts rise to a flame of passion that does not burn out but ignites the sense of what it means to bear loving kindness for the world and its people. Mara Lemanis has been a teacher and scholar of literature and film at Stanford and Yale; her essays have been selected for 20th CENTURY LITERARY CRITICISM and are included in undergraduate student textbooks in the U.S. She has worked as an archivist for Historical Preservation with particular interest in the study of Oglala Sioux sites at Pine Ridge and Wounded Knee. Her recent work has been with the IRC to assist refugees in Oakland, California. Her father, Osvalds J. Lemanis, was an internationally renowned Latvian choreographer (The Royal Order of Vasa – Gustav V). The Library of Congress The Library of Congress (LOC) is the research library that officially serves the United States Congress and is the de facto national library of the United States. It is the oldest federal cultural institution in the United States. The Library of Congress claims to be the largest library in the world. Its “collections are universal, not limited by subject, format, or national boundary, and include research materials from all parts of the world and in more than 450 languages. The Library has kept the “American Memory” name for its public domain website, which today contains 15 million digital objects, comprising over 7 petabytes. American Memory is a source for public domain image resources, as well as audio, video, and archived Web content. The Future Now Show Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show February 2018 Social Banking withChristian Heyner It is a strange and unfortunate fact of life that many things people in the developed world pay little for cost substantially more in the developing world. One of these is banking, often costly in the developing world while in much of the developed world banks now offer you money to encourage you to open a charges-free account. Meanwhile, the once highly praised micro-credit systems are now charging loan shark interest rates in some poor countries. This is the story of a new attempt to change all that by creating a global low-cost banking service cleverly designed to be accessible to the poorest. And you can play a part. – Paul Holister The Future Now Show Credits Christian Heyner, President of the board at 1bank4all Gründungsverein www.1bank4all.net Paul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Credits Katie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USA The Future Now Show and join the dialogue in ourLinkedIn Group: The Future Now Show World’s biggest ‘smart city’ to rise in Philippines Philippines FUTURE BIGGEST PROJECTS 2018-2030 “You will see the mega projects that will change the philippines. Philippines passed form a poor country to a emerging country in less than a generation. Manila is now very modern and is full of skyscrapers,malls and other modern things. The skyline of Manila is one of the best in the world. The philippines is a place to travel and visit. The 3 mega projects that will change the country are :the manila mega subway, the Eco friendly city and the city of pearl. One day, Phlippines will be developed . In 2030, the country will be a middle income country. The city of pearl will be the biggest smart city on earth and the manila mega subway will be the biggest infrastructure project of the country.” BBC HardTalk On The Road in the Philippines News about the Future This is how money grows from trees BioCarbon Engineering is featured in a ground-breaking report from World Resources Institute and The Nature Conservancy. As we encounter constraints in the planet’s resources, pressure is growing to find new ways to enhance productivity and recover lost natural assets. Land restoration offers a path forward. Companies that develop profitable and scalable business models for restoration have the potential to grow substantially. UNICEF Sudan Humanitarian Situation Report, December 2017 In addition to the response to the protracted humanitarian situation, caused by armed conflict, floods and epidemics, UNICEF responded in 2017 mainly to three new emergencies related to the high rates of malnutrition in newly accessible areas, the Acute Watery Diarrhoea outbreak and the high influx of South Sudanese refugees. Also, the year marked a huge step forward in protecting children from violations in armed conflict by implementing the Action Plan signed between UN and the government. In numbers2,300,000 children in need4,800,000 people# of people who need Humanitarian Assistance (Source: Sudan Humanitarian Needs Overview 2017) 1,100,000 children2,300,000 people# of internally displaced people (Source: Sudan Humanitarian Needs Overview 2017) 126,987 children192,404 people# of South Sudanese refugees since January 2017 (Source: ’Sudan: Refugees from South Sudan as of 15 December 2017’ reported by UNHCR. Around 66% of South Sudanese refugees are children) How Nanotechnology Will Bring The End of Scarcity by James Burke Recommended Book Dawn of the New Everything: A Journey Through Virtual Realityby Jaron Lanier Jaron Lanier, ‘the father of Virtual Reality … a high-tech genius’ (Sunday Times), tells the extraordinary story of how in just over three decades Virtual Reality went from being a dream to a reality – and how its power to turn dreams into realities will transform us and our world. Virtual Reality has long been one of the dominant clichés of science fiction. Now Virtual Reality is a reality: those big headsets that make people look ridiculous, even while radiating startled delight; the place where war veterans overcome PTSD, surgeries are trialled, aircraft and cities are designed. But VR is far more interesting than any single technology, however spectacular. It is, in fact, the most effective device ever invented for researching what a human being actually is – and how we think and feel. More than thirty years ago, legendary computer scientist, visionary and artist Jaron Lanier pioneered its invention. Here, in what is likely to be one of the most unusual books you ever read, he blends scientific investigation, philosophical thought experiment and his memoir of a life lived at the centre of digital innovation to explain what VR really is: the science of comprehensive illusion; the extension of the intimate magic of earliest childhood into adulthood; a hint of what life would be like without any limits. As Lanier shows, we are standing on the threshold of an entirely new realm of human creativity, expression, communication and experience. While we can use VR to test our relationship with reality, it will test us in return, for how we choose to use it will reveal who we truly are. Welcome to a mind-expanding, life-enhancing, world-changing adventure. Common Sense – helping kids thrive in a world of media and technology Common Sense is the leading independent nonprofit organization dedicated to helping kids thrive in a world of media and technology. We empower parents, teachers, and policymakers by providing unbiased information, trusted advice, and innovative tools to help them harness the power of media and technology as a positive force in all kids’ lives. Media and technology are at the very center of all our lives today — especially our children’s. Kids today spend over 50 hours of screen time every week. The media content they consume and create has a profound impact on their social, emotional, cognitive, and physical development. Learning how to use media and technology wisely is an essential skill for life and learning in the 21st century. But parents, teachers, and policymakers struggle to keep up with the rapidly changing digital world in which our children live and learn. Now more than ever, they need a trusted guide to help them navigate a world where change is the only constant. Futurist Portrait: Bertalan Meskó Dr. Bertalan Meskó MD, PhD. – The Medical Futurist, Private Professor at Semmelweis University, keynote speaker, author, visionary. A geek physician with a PhD in genomics and Amazon Top 100 author, he envisions the impact of digital health technologies on the future of healthcare, and helps patients, doctors, government regulators and companies make it a reality. The mission of The Medical Futurist Institute is to initiate public discussions about how the old paradigm of the paternalistic model of medicine is transforming into an equal level partnership between patients and professionals and how it is aided and augmented by disruptive technologies. By providing reports, publications and daily commentary on new technological innovations, the Institute aims at preparing every stakeholder of healthcare for adopting digital health in a way that the human component remains decisive. Under the term “digital health”, advanced medical technologies, disruptive innovations and digital communication have gradually become inseparable from providing the best practice healthcare. While the cost of treating chronic conditions is increasing and doctor shortages are imminent worldwide, the needed transformation in the structure of healthcare and medicine fails to catch up with the rapid progress of the medical technology industry. This transition is slowed down by strict regulations; the reluctance of stakeholders in healthcare to change; and ignoring the importance of cultural changes and the human factor in an increasingly technological world. With access and adoption of technology getting higher, the risk of patients primarily turning to an accessible, but unregulated technological solution for their health problem is likely to increase. We need to acknowledge the ongoing cultural transformation and include digital health in the practice of medicine. Grand Challenges Embrace disruptive medical technologiesMedical professionals and patients must prepare for a technological revolution in medicine – the only way to make healthcare effective and more humanistic. Put patients in the center of healthcarePatients must become experts on their own health so they can be involved in decisions about their health, while also taking part in designing healthcare Digitize Healthcare InformationDigitalization can make care affordable and available, ensuring sustainability and growing our understanding of disease. Shift focus from treatment to preventionLive healthier lives and prevent disease by reforming healthcare based on widespread access to health data. Technology and the Future of Medicine printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, March 2018, Issue 203
T Content How to make smart cities human again by Nick Malleson & Alison Heppenstall China’s Demography Challenge by Miraç Yazici The Future Now Show:Wearable technology for breast cancer patients with Victor Portes hosted by Miss Metaverse Powering Businesses with Space Data News about the Future: Engineers create plants that glow / Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals 2017 Holo Recommended Book:The Silent Intelligence – The Internet of Things by Daniel Kellmereit, Daniel Obodovski The Still Small Voice in the Eye of Contradiction by Mara Lemanis Futurist Portrait: Nancy Giordano Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show: Wearable technology for breast cancer patients with Victor Portes hosted by Miss MetaverseBreast Cancer has a massive impact on a woman’s physical, psychological, social-cultural economical well-being. This extends to their families and in some cases, to entire communities. Continuous research and development of materials and technologies include wearable technology, artificial intelligence, 3D scanning and 3D printing solutions forthe purpose of realizing external customized breast prosthesesthat provide comfort, functionality and their personal lifestyle. Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman How to make smart cities human again By Nick Malleson, Associate Professor of Geographical Information Systems, University of Leeds & Alison Heppenstall, Professor in Geocomputation, University of Leeds Huge quantities of networked sensors have appeared in cities across the world in recent years. These include cameras and sensors that count the number of passers by, devices to sense air quality, traffic flow detectors, and even bee hive monitors. There are also large amounts of information about how people use cities on social media services such as Twitter and foursquare. Citizens are even making their own sensors – often using smart phones – to monitor their environment and share the information with others; for example, crowd-sourced noise pollution maps are becoming popular. All this information can be used by city leaders to create policies, with the aim of making cities “smarter” and more sustainable. But these data only tell half the story. While sensors can provide a rich picture of the physical city, they don’t tell us much about the social city: how people move around and use the spaces, what they think about their cities, why they prefer some areas over others, and so on. For instance, while sensors can collect data from travel cards to measure how many people travel into a city every day, they cannot reveal the purpose of their trip, or their experience of the city. With a better understanding of both social and physical data, researchers could begin to answer tough questions about why some communities end up segregated, how areas become deprived, and where traffic congestion is likely to occur.Difficult questions Determining how and why such patterns will emerge is extremely difficult. Traffic congestion happens as a result of personal decisions about how to get from A to B, based on factors such as your stage of life, your distance from the workplace, school or shops, your level of income, your knowledge of the roads and so on. Congestion can build locally at pinch points, placing certain sections of the city’s transport networks under severe strain. This can lead to high levels of air pollution, which in turn has a severe impact on the health of the population. For city leaders, the big question is, which actions – imposing congestion charges, pedestrianising areas or improving local infrastructure – would lead to the biggest improvements in both congestion, and public health. The irony is, although modern technology has the power to collect vast amounts of data, it doesn’t always provide the means to analyse it. This means that scientists don’t have the tools they need to understand how different factors influence the way cities function and grow. Here, the technique of agent-based modelling could come to the rescue. The simulated city Agent-based modelling is a type of computer simulation, which models the behaviour of individual people as they move around and interact inside a virtual world. An agent-based model of a city could include virtual commuters, pedestrians, taxi drivers, shoppers and so on. Each of these individuals has their own characteristics and “rules”, programmed by researchers, based on theories and data about how people behave. After combining vast urban datasets with an agent-based model of people, scientists will have the capacity to tweak and re-run the model, until they detect the phenomena they’re wanting to study – whether it’s traffic jams or social segregation. When they eventually get the model right, they’ll be able to look back on the characteristics and rules of their virtual citizens, to better understand why some of these problems emerge, and hopefully begin to find ways to resolve them. For example, scientists might use urban data in an agent-based model to better understand the characteristics of the people who contribute to traffic jams – where they have come from, why they are travelling, what other modes of transport they might be willing to take. From there, they might be able to identify some effective ways of encouraging people to take different routes or modes of transport. Seeing the future Also, if the model works well in the present time, then it might be able to produce short-term forecasts. This would allow scientists to develop ways of reacting to changes in cities, in real time. Using live urban data to simulate the city in real-time could help to inform the managers of key services during periods of major disruption, such as severe weather, infrastructure failure or evacuation. Using real-time data adds another layer of complexity. But fortunately, other scientific disciplines have also been making advances in this area. Over decades, the field of meteorology has developed cutting-edge mathematical methods, which allow their weather and climate models to respond to new weather data, as they arise in real time. There’s a lot more work to be done before these methods from meteorology can be adapted to work for agent-based models of cities. But if they’re successful, these advancements will allow scientists to build city simulations which are driven by people – and not just the data they produce. China’s Demography Challenge by Miraç Yazici, Intern at Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, Nevsehir, Turkey China is the most populous country in the World, at least for now. India and China are expected to have nearly a population of 1.44 billion each, by 2024, according to UNPD forecasts. By the 1970s, China was facing food and housing shortages and in 1979, decided to limit couples to have only one child and sustained this rule until 2016. Adopting one-child policy created drastic demographic imbalances between old and young population, also between men and women that it could take decades to return to normal. Less babies and more singles As a result of 35 years of the one-child policy, the country has an exceptionally low fertility rate with the sex ratio at birth for every 100 girls to 114 in 2015 according to national statistics. On the other hand, China’s singles population is increasing, it has reached 200 million. The proportion of single men and women within the whole population increased from 6 percent in 1990 to 14.6 percent in 2013. In 2015, It is projected that there won’t be enough brides for almost a fifth of males born today in China, by 2035. Over time, an increase in the number of single people can lead to an aging population and a decrease in the birth rate. In 10-20 years, China might face with a decreasing number of working-age people and the problem of maintaining pensions and pension insurance will arise according to Zhang Ning, an economics expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Two-child policy: First Outcomes China has changed its rules to allow all families to have two children in 2016, after 35 years of one-child policy rule. The new policy is widely regarded as a countermeasure to cope with low fertility rates and the country’s rapidly aging population, but it is highly uncertain whether it will, in fact, positively affect China’s fertility rate. In 2016, there was an increase of newborns more than 2 million compared with 2015. But those figures fell short of what policy makers expected. The one-child years left social scars: Many couples aren’t convinced that two children are better than one child. New Approaches for the challenge There is an extraordinary approach practising to increase fertility rate in China. Communist Youth League organises blind date matchmaking activities across China to help young people find the right partner. What’s more, other government bodies such as labor unions and women’s federations also plays cupid in China. Encouraging fertility has become common in many sectors of Chinese society. For instance, many television stations are making efforts to create a climate of respect for families and fertility, as illustrated by television programs on CCTV’s annual Spring Festival Gala. The Future Now Show Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Wearable technology for breast cancer patients withVictor Porteshosted byMiss Metaverse Breast Cancer has a massive impact on a woman’s physical, psychological, social-cultural economical well-being. This extends to their families and in some cases, to entire communities. Continuous research and development of materials and technologies include wearable technology, artificial intelligence, 3D scanning and 3D printing solutions forthe purpose of realizing external customized breast prosthesesthat provide comfort, functionality and their personal lifestyle. The Future Now Show Credits Victor Portes, Chairman at STICHTING FIGURA NOVA FOUNDATION, the Netherlandswww.figuranova.foundation Katie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAwww.facebook.com/missmetaverse The Future Now Show Powering Businesses with Space Data The European economy is powered by space, so you might already be considering how to use it in your business. At ESA Business Applications we’ve been driving change across the world for years, and our network continues to grow. We want you to be a part of that. We have invested an average of half a million euros in more than 500 businesses across Europe, supporting them in leveraging space in commercial ventures. And it goes way beyond the money. We’ll set you up with a dedicated consultant, access to our global network of experts, investors and incubators, a collection of space resources and a mark of credibility that’ll propel your business well beyond its launch. What will you build with the combined resources of space at your fingertips? Find out about our Industry 4.0 and High Value Manufacturing Kick-Start Activities:https://business.esa.int/funding/invitation-to-tender/industry-40 Find out more about our funding schemes here: https://business.esa.int/funding-schemes https://business.esa.int/funding-schemes News about the Future Engineers create plants that glow Imagine that instead of switching on a lamp when it gets dark, you could read by the light of a glowing plant on your desk. MIT engineers have taken a critical first step toward making that vision a reality. By embedding specialized nanoparticles into the leaves of a watercress plant, they induced the plants to give off dim light for nearly four hours. They believe that, with further optimization, such plants will one day be bright enough to illuminate a workspace. “The vision is to make a plant that will function as a desk lamp — a lamp that you don’t have to plug in. The light is ultimately powered by the energy metabolism of the plant itself,” says Michael Strano, the Carbon P. Dubbs Professor of Chemical Engineering at MIT and the senior author of the study. Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals 2017: From World Development Indicators With over 150 maps and data visualizations, the new publication discusses measurement issues, and charts the progress societies are making towards the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Holo We are a community of passionate humans building a distributed cloud, owned and run by users like you and me. Holo provides a way to unleash the enormous idle capacity in everyone’s computers. This gives us the power to build vibrant cloud hosting communities that will challenge how the Internet monopolies control our data and our interactions. Holo offers each of us the ability to participate by sharing, earning, and building the future of the web. When the gift you wish to share with the world is a decentralized mode of measuring the subtlest streams of value; river, rain, and tidepool metaphors begin to take on more meaning. Eric Harris-Braun, Fernanda Ibarra, and Art Brock’s intuitions about distributed computing and (r)evolutionary human collaboration became a rich floodplain, gathering together techno-culture enthusiasts, activists, media theorists, healers, next economy geeks, artists, and leading thinkers in collective intelligence. Some were in the business of manifesting social entrepreneurship. Others were pursuing their crafts. A few were furthering their studies. Each effort was a steady flow, chipping away the same myth, layered in centuries of thick sediment: humans function best when responding to a central authority-from-above, whether in governments, schools, businesses, or in our increasingly networked digital lives. A year before the financial crisis of 2008 and the subsequent rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency projects, many of the Holo team began dreaming, together as part of the MetaCurrency Project, or separately, driving deep explorations in work and life, of new modes of coordinating and new tools to increase our capacity to affect and be affected by one another. In 2018 we proudly break the levee, bringing to bear a concerted groundswell from our robust team of communicators, programmers, strategists, and artists. The Holo project was created to bring the benefits of distributed apps to anyone with a web browser. Casting light on the abyssal zones of our computational culture, we aim to redistribute the wealth and health made possible by our mounting interconnectivity. Recommended Book The Silent Intelligence – The Internet of Thingsby Daniel Kellmereit, Daniel Obodovski The Silent Intelligence is a book about the Internet of Things. We talk about the history, trends, technology ecosystem and future of Connected Cities, Connected Homes, Connected Health and Connected Cars. We also discuss the most exciting growth areas for entrepreneurs and venture capital investors. We share exciting stories and unique opinions of more than 30 industry veterans, experts and visionaries from Google, Ericsson, AT&T, Qualcomm, SAP, MIT, Jawbone and many others. We called this book The Silent Intelligence because most of the activity and growth in the space so far has been outside of mainstream visibility. Our aim is to help executives, entrepreneurs, investors and everybody who is interested in this topic, better understand the opportunities and challenges of the Internet of Things. We also hope that the new growth opportunities discussed in this book will be as exciting to you as they are to us. The World In 2050 The Real Future Of Earth by Mara Lemanis Though The Law of Excluded Middle claims that two distinct states can’t co-exist in the same time and space, in fact our minds often do battle with a state of cognitive dissonance. If one is striving for little more than the acquisition of power, one’s mind will find a fairly straightforward path toward cognitive consistency. But when cultures seek an accord between each individual’s inner meanings and the social midst through which those meanings ripen, mankind needs supple skills to map a steady path. This is no different from how we all wend our way through life. Like people walking between tall hedges in a maze, we tread in the eye of contradictions. In a famous quote F. Scott Fitzgerald once said, “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.” It isn’t really a matter of holding ideas like galloping horses, sweating to rein them in so they don’t fling the rider into a ditch. If we are aware we know, and if unaware we feel the push and pull of polar opposites. To confront this duality means to come up against the age-old divisions: between reason and emotion;between individual and community;between material and spiritual;between life and death. Except those times when we’re particularly stressed or under siege from painful trials, these oppositions don’t cause strife. We typically acknowledge them through irony-“I’m proud of my humility”…or, “As I’m a saint I see the devil in your heart.” More simply put, we incorporate the polarities. Attempting to prevent disputes and enmities, cultures seek to collaborate. Yet despite its goodwill motives, each community encounters contradictions-between advocacy and self-defense; prowess and deficiency; business zest and public dearth. The mind can be trained to hold most attitudes in harmony. “I love how you boost me” vs. “I hate how you hype me”; “I’m proud of my money” vs. “I’m ashamed of what I do for it” are oppositions susceptible of binding together to streamline goals and focus. Finding cognitive consistency is a normative act. It takes a balancing act-accommodation — to neutralize the force in each polarity. But the best and brightest functions of our brain can turn oppositions into unities. If this sounds like a dialectical turn, it is still not Hegelian. Yet a synthesis is created. That synthesis is less a climax than a fusion, and it is a fusion that heals. Because whatever we believe to be responsible for fulfilling this valued equilibrium, the impact revitalizes. We may believe it is a series of biological moments-neural firings and integration — or we may believe it is a spiritual gift, an intercession beyond clinical analysis. Regardless, it works. It only seems to betray us at times of deep emotional turmoil or a catastrophic event that thrusts us out of our reliable orbit. The sudden imminence of death is such an event. It can overwhelm us. Though we float in the eye of the life-death spectrum, at once absorbing both survival and extinction, the alarming demise of someone close — a sudden forecast of our own end — throws us way off course. We may be hurled so far that it will take some wandering — maybe the balm of therapy and even medication, a suspension of regular activity — before we’re able to return. But when we do return, we come back redeemed by that which integrated us again and made us whole. We can call it a chemical-biological rescue, or we can say our spirit intervened; that God breathed into us. In the final analysis even if we contend that our neurons found a way to reassemble and point out the quick of our path again, a spiritual impulse, like a law of fusion, could be stamped into those neurons. It’s not impossible to state that they have always been and always are inspired. The art in our personal balance and the stability of our culture is to stop the tortuous stumbling away from our core path and let our minds re-mind us we must stop obsessing over one polarity or the other-cease fixating on death but no less on life. In admitting the contradiction and letting our neural grid act as our spiritual guide, we are able to submit and reconcile ourselves. When we keep the contradiction constant, we keep duality at bay. Opposing forces cannot tear or break us. We are not at the mercy of emotional storms. And through that constant within ourselves and our extended community we can once more be joined, at one, made whole. Futurist Portrait: Nancy Giordano Nancy (Patierno) GiordanoStrategic Futurist + Gatherer + Speaker Strategic Futurist | Corporate Strategist | Event Catalyst | Keynote SpeakerDescribed as endlessly optimistic, Nancy is a strategic futurist with a drive to help enterprise organizations and visionary leaders transform to meet the escalating expectations ahead. Recognized as one of the world’s top female futurists, she has spent her career building, shaping and evolving a portfolio of $50 billion worth of major global brands with her unique abilities to sense and synthesize the shifts ahead and to guide those ready to build more relevant and sustainable solutions for us all. With an early career at several of the most influential ad agencies in NY, Chicago, and LA, Nancy has spent the past 10 years as Founder/CEO of Play Big Inc, a strategic inspiration company, applying her broad understanding of the intense cultural and technological shifts we’re facing. Her extensive knowledge of the drivers shaping our future (and driving business) have guided transformation projects with The Coca Cola Company, Brinker International, Sprint, Nestle, Acumen, Energizer, Mercedes Benz and many other Fortune 500 companies. And through keynote talks to CXO leaders in wide range of industries including entertainment, travel, food, business, homebuilding, culture/talent and more. Diving more deeply into the intersections of tech, business and society, she recently worked to frame the internal culture and talent infrastructure for a provocative artificial intelligence company and currently is producing Gigaom Change, a Leader’s Summit diving into the seven most disruptive technologies for enterprise. She has been ranked as one of the World’s Top Female Futurists (research by Ross Dawson) and was voted 7th Woman of Influence on the Future of Leadership list (Women Speakers Association). She was the first global TEDx licensee and currently leads a youth-led team to produce one of the globe’s largest TEDx events for teens, hosting nearly 1000 annually. Nancy’s distinctive ability to design meaningful, future-forward solutions and pathways is honed by her active collaboration with idea-centric organizations such as TED, The World Future Society, REX, Voice & Exit, and the newly forming Global Synthesis Network. She partners with (and learns from) many of the most provocative influencers currently building our collective futures — whom she describes as PYNKrs: people you need to know. Nancy lives in Austin with three fast growing, very curly teens and her ideas can be found on her blog Cultural Acupuncture, often featured on The Huffington Post. printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, April 2018, Issue 204
Content 7 success factors to empowering rural women through ICTs Truth in the Time of Chaos by Jordan Peterson The Future Now Show Foresight Future of the Sea News about the Future: Drawdown / Laying Down the Groundwork for a Knowledge-Led Society: Policy and Practice How a New World-view will emerge from Industry 4.0 by Mark Timberlake Recommended Book: Living Well Now and in the Future: Why Sustainability Matters by Ellen Metzger and Randall Curren The World In 2050 The Real Future Of Earth – BBC Futurist Portrait: Jean-Christophe Bonis Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman 7 success factors to empowering rural women through ICTs By FAO – Food and Agricultar Organisation of the United Nations FAO is an intergovernmental organization present in over 130 countries. The Organization is comprised of 194 Member States, two associate members and one member organization – The European Union. Using technology to transform livesInformation and Communications Technologies (ICTs) improve the lives of smallholder farmers in many ways, from monitoring crops to tracking market prices. While women play a fundamental role in agricultural production, they tend to have less access to ICTs, leaving them and their families at a disadvantage. ©FAOThe digital revolution has changed the way we work, access information and connect with each other. It offers opportunities to those who can use the new technologies, but also presents new challenges for those who are left behind.Often referred to collectively as Information and Communications Technologies or ICTs, these technologies are any method of electronically sharing or storing data: telephones, mobile broadband, the internet, broadcasting, sensor networks, data storage and analytics, and more. ICTs improve the lives of small farmers in a myriad of ways, from monitoring crops to tracking market prices and from spreading good practices to facilitating access to banking services. The list goes on.Yet much of this potential remains untapped, particularly in the case of women, who play a fundamental role in agricultural production but also face a triple divide: digital, rural and gender. They often tend to have less access to ICTs, leaving them and their families at a disadvantage. Here are seven critical factors for success when making ICTs available and accessible to rural communities, especially women. 1. Adapt content so that it is meaningful for them.While ICTs can deliver large amounts of information, this does not imply effective use of it. Adaptation of content to local needs, languages and contexts often remains a challenge. Hence, content should be adapted to local languages and repackaged to suit formats that meet the different information needs. 2. Create a safe environment for them to share and learn.Illiteracy, and limited skills in using complex devices to search for information and cultural issues, remain barriers to effectively receiving and using information delivered via ICTs. For example, illiterate and older farmers often have less developed digital skills, and are therefore generally less likely to adopt ICTs.Digital literacy in rural institutions and communities should be developed and enhanced, taking into consideration local needs and constraints by providing appropriate learning opportunities for men, women, youth and people with disabilities, which will enhance individual and collective decision-making skills.Social norms, lack of connectivity and poverty are some of the reasons that rural women have less access to ICTs. Digital inclusion policies should take gender into account to enable men and women to access ICTs equally. 3. Be gender sensitive.Gender inequalities remain a serious issue in the digital economy, as does the gap between urban and rural populations. Access and opportunities for women, youth, older farmers and people living in the most remote areas is hindered by the price of access to ICTs, and by persistent inequalities.Many of the factors that constrain male farmers in adopting more sustainable and productive practices restrict women to an even greater extent. Specific gender barriers further limit women farmers’ capacity to innovate and become more productive. Gender, youth and diversity should be systematically addressed in the planning phase of project design and during the whole project cycle. 4. Provide them with access and tools for sharing.Rural women have less access to ICTs – the phones, the laptops, the Wi-Fi – because they are confronted with social norms, because they are living in unconnected areas, and because they are usually poor. The price of access to ICTs can be very high in some countries. Pricing of broadband or mobile services is a significant barrier for most vulnerable groups, such as women, youth, older farmers and people living in the most remote areas. Digital inclusion policies with gender perspectives should be promoted to enable men and women to access and use ICTs equally. 5. Build partnerships.Small, local private companies, local producer organizations and community-based non-governmental organizations (NGOs) often have the social capital to provide trusted information and good quality services. Diverse advisory and extension services offered by different types of providers are more likely to meet the various needs of farmers, as there is no single type of service that can fit all circumstances.Gender inequalities remain a serious issue in the digital economy, as does the gap between urban and rural populations. Identifying the right mix of technologies and strategies that are gender-sensitive and suited to local needs is critical to increasing farm efficiency and revenues. 6. Provide the right blend of technologiesIdentifying the right mix of technologies that are suited to local needs and contexts is often a challenge, in spite of – or because of – the rapid increase in mobile telephone penetration in rural areas. Blended approaches, such as a combination of radio and telephone, and locally relevant technologies selected on the basis of in-depth analysis of local needs and existing information systems, should be adopted to increase the efficiency of initiatives for ICT in agriculture, and better serve different users and contexts. 7. Ensure sustainability.The digital divide is not only concerned with technological infrastructure and connectivity. It is critical that ICT initiatives target both women and men, as well as the larger family unit and the community to ensure long-term sustainability. An inclusive approach to ICT initiatives will help to generate widespread recognition that it is important for women to be able to use ICTs.ICTs offer valuable opportunities for agricultural and rural development, increasing sustainable output, farm and agribusiness efficiency and revenues for a wide range of players. Access of women to information and education can also increase acceptance for sending both daughters and sons to school, which will have a greater impact, and increase the chances of reducing poverty and achieving a world without hunger. Truth in the Time of Chaos Jordan Bernt Peterson (born June 12, 1962) is a Canadian clinical psychologist, cultural critic, and professor of psychology at the University of Toronto. His main areas of study are in abnormal, social, and personality psychology, with a particular interest in the psychology of religious and ideological belief, and the assessment and improvement of personality and performance Psychologist and professor Jordan Peterson has come to fame, or notoriety depending on your perspective, over the last year. But many of those attracted to his attacks on political correctness are saying that he is one of the world’s most significant thinkers – why? Rebel Wisdom investigates a man who is redefining spiritual and religious thought for the internet generation. Jordan Peterson: Truth in the Time of Chaos The Future Now Show Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Foresight Future of the Sea A Report from the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, UK Government Office for Science This report considers the role that science and technology can play in understanding and providing solutions to the long-term issues affecting the sea. It outlines a number of recommendations to help the UK utilise its current expertise and technological strengths to foster trade links, build marine capacity across the world and collaborate to tackle climate change. The sea covers 70% of the world’s surface and is essential to regulating global temperature, water, and oxygen and carbon dioxide levels. Technological advances are creating new opportunities to understand the sea, its resources and the effects of climate change.We carried out a Foresight project to consider the role that science and technology can play in understanding and providing solutions to the long-term issues affecting the sea. The project worked with policy-makers to identify the most important future trends, challenges and opportunities for the UK from the sea.It focused on the following areas:resources and economic potential of the seaenvironmental issuesgovernance of the sea download the Report News about the Future Drawdown Project Drawdown is the most comprehensive plan ever proposed to reverse global warming. Our organization did not make or devise the plan — we found the plan because it already exists. We gathered a qualified and diverse group of researchers from around the world to identify, research, and model the 100 most substantive, existing solutions to address climate change. What was uncovered is a path forward that can roll back global warming within thirty years. It shows that humanity has the means at hand. Nothing new needs to be invented. The solutions are in place and in action. Our work is to accelerate the knowledge and growth of what is possible. We chose the name Drawdown because if we do not name the goal, we are unlikely to achieve it.Drawdown is based on meticulous research that maps, measures, models, and describes the most substantive solutions to global warming that already exist. It is the most important goal for humanity to undertake. Laying Down the Groundwork for a Knowledge-Led Society: Policy and PracticeWhite paper by AIMS / Robert Bosch Stiftung Africa is a continent with a growing consumer base, entrepreneurial ambition and homegrown innovation. With more than 314 active technology hubs in 93 cities in 42 countries in Africa, entrepreneurs on the continent are innovating in every sector from education and health to agriculture and energy, be it products or services. How a New World-view will emerge from Industry 4.0 by Mark TimberlakeAnalytics | BI | Digital | Mobile Applications | IoT | Senior Project Manager, Sydney, Australia Are we on the cusp of a new World-view or global employment tsunami? Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, and other recent tech innovations are forecast to impact up to 50% of Global employment. And this time it could be different from previous Industrial revolutions. If Artificial Intelligence and Robotics displace humans on a mass scale then the human in human society becomes marginalised; this could be the legacy that we leave to the future. Industry 4.0 In recent years there have been major advances in several technology areas that collectively have been labelled Industry 4.0. Industry 4.0 will have an impact in two ways that will affect us all; employment, and information privacy and security. Through this article, I hope to raise awareness of the impact of Industry 4.0, and how serious it will be.Industry 4.0 will have a Dramatic Global Impact on Employment Robotics, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Augmented Reality (AR), Analytics, and Robotic Process Automation (RPA) are some of the Industry 4.0 technologies. These technologies are at an advanced stage of understanding and development. It has become clear that these technologies can be combined and applied to a wide range of industrial, commercial and social applications. What has also become clear is that, over the next few years, the large scale application of these technologies will have a significant global impact upon employment, economies, and society. In the next section, I suggest that the global impacts upon employment, global pollution, and climate change share a common set of underlying causes; these causes include the nature of technological developments, and some ‘structural’ issues in our society. I will try to outline some reasons as to why I feel that the impact of Industry 4.0 should be carefully considered.Structural Issues in Our Society Will Accelerate the Impact of Industry 4.0 Scientific, technological and industrial developments have frequently involved side-effects, and trade-offs that have had global scale impacts on our environment and society; for example, plastics, power stations and the internal combustion engine have had the side effects of global pollution, and climate change. The prevailing paradigm in our society is based on exploitation: – Scientific, technological and industrial developments involve side-effects, and trade-offs that have had global scale impacts on our environment and society. – Regardless, both Industry and Governments have incorporated these innovations in short-sighted policy decisions, and short-sighted commercial gain. – Responses to issues have been reactive, not proactively managed. And typically the issues have been dumped on governments frequently unable to deal with them. There have been published views that Industry 4.0 technologies applied on a global scale could have non-linear flow on effects upon other industries, economic sectors, and countries. Governments, Industry and societies seem dangerously focused on the short term. We have not approached the management of our society in a long term holistic way. What are the effects on society when significant, multi- industry scale disruptions are unfolding, and with potentially non-linear cascading effects on other industrial and economic systems? And for industries dominated by siloed, reductionist thinking, those disruptions will have amplified effect. I would like to weaken the automatic nexus between new technology innovations and solutions to global problems which were largely the result of technology side-effects and trade-off. I see that nexus as a concern in the case of Industry 4.0 If we pause for a moment to reflect on these issues we open ourselves to new understanding and new possibilities. In the next section I suggest that our future direction may be found in new transcendent levels of awareness of our society and its issues. How Integral Theory Opens a New Perspective on Our Future Developments in Integral Theory present a framework for the development of human consciousness, society, and civilisation. Within the context of Integral Theory is the idea of the emergent evolution of consciousness and culture. Civilisations develop from one world-view to a more expanded world-view, in concert with the evolution of human consciousness. So for example, the Mythical world gave way to an expanded level of human consciousness and the ‘Age of Reason’. Each transition was driven by an evolution of our consciousness that enlarged our understanding of society, its structures, limitations, power relations, and issues. These transitions are irreversible; there is no possibility of returning to the mythical world-view. The transitions involve a paradigm shift. Now emerging, there is a new transcendent level of understanding that recognizes that the tools of the current world-view will not resolve the issues of the day. Historically, social progress at scale has been driven by new perspectives and values that underpinned a totally new world-view. Scholars have recognized (since early last century) that this shift in the evolution in our consciousness has been developing for some time. The sources of many of today’s issues can be found in the amoral nature of scientific and technological developments, and industry; and the frequent adverse impacts of these developments to our environment, to employment, to our society at large. Science and technology have no moral or social consciousness drivers. Developments in science and technology are greatly influenced by ego, competitive pressures, and a simplistic belief in progress. Many scientific ‘advances’ involve side-effects, or trade-offs (typically mass scale impacts on other people); they are not absolute advances, but often shift the problem around: ‘solving’ one issue by creating another. Further, science and technology are instruments that are easily and routinely incorporated into abuses of power (social, economic, political). The suggestion that AI could help solve complex global problems ignores history, and does not address the fundamental causes. First, it suffers from the fallacy that scientific, technological and industrial developments constitute absolute progress that can be applied to the issues of the day; we have serious global unemployment and environmental problems because of technology innovations that have been unleashed on a global scale. Second, the fundamental causes of our issues today are structural problems in our society. So, Integral Theory suggests that we should recognize the structural issues in our society, and look for solutions in new perspectives and values, a totally new transcendent world-view. We need to be more reflective about the issues in society. If technology is being applied on a mass scale regardless of side-effects, and involves trade-offs then we need to rethink. You might still wonder just how relevant this is to the impact of AI and Robotics on jobs. Well, I believe that the collapse of the Soviet Union and the downfall of the Berlin Wall are examples of the social progress at scale I mentioned. In these two situations, there appeared to be a mass alignment of people and their Collective Consciousness; the old paradigms were swept away. The Future of Humanity Institute has just published the Asilomar A.I. Principles; 23 guiding principles for the development of Artificial Intelligence. This could develop into a proactive form of global governance relating to AI and Robotics which is what I suggest in the conclusion of this article. And it could be another expression of our shift in global consciousness. In the title of this article I suggest that a new world-view will emerge out of Industry 4.0; either because the shift in our consciousness to a new level becomes global soon, or because of a global reaction to mass job loss accelerates that change. Industry 4.0 will impact Information Privacy and Security There are moves to provide ‘open’ access to customer data stored by banks. Banks hold a significant amount of confidential information about their customers. When a customer applies for a home loan, or insurance, from a bank, they are NOT offering open access to their confidential details. Whether banks voluntarily offer, or a forced by legislation, providing open access to customer data is an abuse of power, facilitated by the ease with which technological possibility can be appropriated for that purpose. That abuse of power over customer data cascades further, for example: the risk of fraud rises, and the risk of data being stolen increases, and so, the associated risk and cost are transferred to the customer; and since, more customer data is openly available, more of it is assumed to be available BY DEFAULT to Digital Identity, Digital Wallets, Digital Profiles, Digital Attestation ‘services’, IoT devices that can identify you and retrieve your open customer details. And because of this default availability, individuals are increasingly imposed upon to ‘opt-out’; however, over time the option to opt-out is gradually removed by either legislation, or because it becomes wide-spread practise. Some European countries are already considering moves to a cashless society; there will be no opt-out option. The US Company Oculus VR has already claimed the right to your biometric data that its devices can capture. How Industry 4.0 will Impact Global Employment The incorporation of technology in the abuse of economic power has delivered a global mass scale loss of jobs. The global loss of jobs will likely accelerate, because, for example, when a factory retrenches its workforce due to, say, automation, it has a negative effect on the surrounding economy, and suppliers to that factory. The spread of Industry 4.0 will likely accelerate global mass scale job loss; not only will people lose their jobs, but those jobs will simply disappear. So, it is irrelevant where the factory is located because Robotic Process Automation, IoT, Digital Transformation and all other technology innovations that constitute Industry 4.0 will vapourize jobs as we know them. This is not about education, or retraining redundant workers; the jobs simply will not be there. Of course, there will be specialist jobs, but even many of these will disappear as technology innovation encroaches into each and every field of human endeavour. The transitions of economies from agriculture to manufacturing to services to high technology has influenced economies to expand, employment has increased in absolute terms. In the move from agriculture to manufacturing there is an increase in the number of jobs. Why? Because Manufacturing requires human capabilities not used in agriculture, such as; planning, design, forecasting, and other specialist skills. That is, latent human capability was activated and made economically valuable and productive. But, is that trend guaranteed? With the advent of Industry 4.0, is it clear where people may have a role? It is not clear what role for people if Robots can perform manufacturing, and process tasks, and AI can answer the phone, perform design activities, solve problems, predict, and make inferences, etc. The set of human activities that only humans can perform is shrinking. With the previous economic transitions the full range of human capabilities were engaged in an economically productive way. This time with Industry 4.0, technology innovations are acquiring those economically useful capabilities to the extent that the human role is uncertain. If people have a future role, it will likely be highly specialised, advanced analytical, or creative. But, that is not going to guarantee employment for the majority, at all. AI and Robotics will replace Humans In the case of Augmented Reality (AR) headsets deployment, the maturity of this technology, leading to human replacement, might evolve through four stages: The first level might provide or display detailed, step by step instructions in the AR headset. The second stage provides confirmation; for example, the visual display in your AR headset shows readings that confirm success of the task. The third stage generates analytics; for example, showing the last time maintenance was performed and what the results were. The fourth stage then would be to build the AR headset capability into a robot. Low skilled jobs are the easier to displace since they have a lower creative element, involve lower decision making, and a lesser degree of analytical processing. Substantial cost efficiency can be achieved through mass scale jobs displacement. Low skilled process jobs are especially easy targets for replacement by Robotics. The displacement path for white collar workers is more difficult because of the degree of skill specialisation, the high degree of decision making, and the high level of analytical processing involved. The likely first stage would involve partial automation of their job by implementing Robotic Process Automation (RPA) aimed at automating the routine components of their job. This is happening now, but it requires a non-trivial amount of analysis to identify, specify and encode the relevant business logic, workflow, decision / escalation points, etc.; and this must be repeated for each job type.How Significant is the Impact on Global Employment A recent article contained a forecast that by 2020 more than 3 million truck drivers in the US will be displaced by self drive vehicles. The US Robotics Industries Association (RIA) estimates that more than 265,000 robotics installations are currently deployed at factories across the US. China and Japan have considerably more robotics deployments. Studies at The Centre for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University suggested that between 2000 and 2010, 5.6 million manufacturing jobs were lost, where 85 percent of these losses were due to technology developments. Currently, robots have replaced approximately 10 percent of manufacturing jobs, and this could rise to 25 percent by 2025. Japan also has the worlds first ‘Autonomous Corporation’, that is, it operates with no operational personnel. To be clear, these are deliberate human replacing initiatives. In a recent report, the World Economic Forum predicted that robotic automation will yield a net loss of more than 5 million jobs across 15 developed nations by 2020 which is considered a conservative estimate. And the International Labour Organization estimates that as many as 137 million jobs across Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are at risk of replacement by robots. This represents approximately 56% of the total workforce of these countries. That displacement could happen quickly and before affected governments wake up to what is happening. There will be no noticeable impact until some critical level of jobs displacement has been reached; that is, due to a lag effect governments probably will not notice for some time. The impact on those countries will not be immediately felt in Europe or the US, and may not even be noticed until regional chaos becomes a global issue. Again, because there will be a lag before any effect is noticeable, no one will probably notice, especially governments. So, there will be a significant global impact because of the fragmented geographic / economic sector nature of this jobs displacement, the lag effect before any noticeable impact, and assuming that governments have no proactive governance framework in place. All countries will be affected by jobs displacement due to process automation and robotics, and that impact will be significant. Our Future Lies in a New World-View As a society we need to understand Industry 4.0 and its impact on employment, and how society and economies are going to function when the number of people with jobs is a small minority of the population. I feel that our issues today are structural; we need to embrace a new transcendent level of awareness of our society, new values and perspectives; and not just blindly roll-out the red carpet for Industry 4.0 Possibly one thing that is missing is a ‘Social Responsibility Contract’ which takes into account the total cost to society (for example, the cost of unemployment that governments typically have to carry) that results from the adoption of technology enabled practices. New forms and levels of local and global governance may help to facilitate proactive management of developments in our global community. New global perspectives and values that enable us to rise above environmental and social exploitation are desperately needed. AI, Robotics and the other Industry 4.0 technologies must be subject to Global Governance. The significant potential of these technologies individually and in combination demands that they be considered within the human context of their development, deployment, use, side-effects, trade-offs, scenarios of misuse, appropriation in abuses of power, and proscribed paths of development and application. The world is already struggling with the well understood issues of global governance of Climate Change and Nuclear weapons. To me it is clear that, under the current paradigm, we do not have the maturity to develop global governance of Industry 4.0 technologies which is genuine and unconstrained by trade-offs and political deals, and which gives primacy to considerations of human benefits without side-effects and trade-offs. Our record with most important developments does not suggest serious in-depth reflection at a holistic level, in which we recognize all interdependent relations, the relativeness of benefits, the delayed nature of adverse findings, and the risk of overlooking fundamental subjective assumptions behind decisions and paths taken. The dominant mode of thinking today embodies simplistic notions of scientific / technological progress; it is reductionist and siloed. This mode of thinking has stripped away the complexities and subtlety of holistic thinking in favour of absolutes; and so, it fosters the numerous uncritical evangelical praises of AI, Robotics and Industry 4.0. We all know of the Pied Piper of Hamelin; even sweet music can have a sinister intent. Coda A recently published essay attempted to expose the lie behind automation, technology, and efficiency drives. The author mentioned the naked contingency of the lives of low paid workers subject to ever increasing demands by business for consolidation and efficiency; that contingency manifest, for example, in personal budgets, and childcare. The author continued his theme by taking up the toilet paper dispenser that restricts the amount of paper that can be retrieved to the extent that actual utility is compromised; justified by the ruse of ‘saving the trees’, but in truth, an expression of cost efficiency and contempt. There seems to be a Human / Technology Ledger: new increments of technology are added to other layers of technology to improve on anti-human objectives such as efficiency; however, on the opposite side of the ledger, for each increment of technology added there is a subtle debasement of human values. So in the example of low paid workers, social responsibility, and human nurturing are degraded; with the second example, social consciousness is eroded. I welcome your comments on this important topic Recommended Book Living Well Now and in the Future: Why Sustainability Mattersby Ellen Metzger and Randall Curren Most people acknowledge the profound importance of sustainability, but few can define it. We are ethically bound to live sustainably for the sake of future generations, but what does that mean? In this book Randall Curren, a philosopher, and Ellen Metzger, a scientist, clarify normative aspects of sustainability. Combining their perspectives, they propose that sustainability can be understood as the art of living well together without diminishing opportunity to live well in the future. Curren and Metzger lay out the nature and value of sustainability, survey the problems, catalog the obstacles, and identify the kind of efforts needed to overcome them. They formulate an ethic of sustainability with lessons for government, organizations, and individuals, and illustrate key ideas with three case studies. Curren and Metzger put intergenerational justice at the heart of sustainability; discuss the need for fair (as opposed to coercive) terms of cooperation to create norms, institutions, and practices conducive to sustainability; formulate a framework for a fundamental ethic of sustainability derived from core components of common morality; and emphasize the importance of sustainability education. The three illustrative case studies focus on the management of energy, water, and food systems, examining the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, Australia’s National Water Management System, and patterns of food production in the Mekong region of Southeast Asia. The World In 2050 The Real Future Of Earth Full BBC Documentary 2018 Futurist Portrait: Jean-Christophe Bonis The future is the basis of his career, yet he is never without his trusty backpack as he travels across the globe. With a passion for innovation and technology, Jean-Christophe is an adventurer of modern times. Lecturer, writer, nomad, blogger, coach, eternal hunter of innovative projects, tireless traveler… Jean-Christophe is a confirmed expert who travels the world, pitching his tent and advocating a new world focused on user experience. An expert in new technologies, he worked for more than 15 years on behalf of investment funds and then as a consultant. He has devoted his professional life to analyzing the consequences new technologies have had on consumer behavior and strategic implications in organizations. Founder and President of Oxymore Inc., he is also deeply engaged in the international startup ecosystem. A true futurist, he is totally committed to his clients through the prism of user experience and brand values. Whether it is for the creation of new products, customer relationship, digitization of businesses or the anticipation of new technological breakthroughs, his unrivalled vision supports the teams involved throughout the various business sectors. Jean-Christophe also provides coaching for executive leaders, advising major companies and startups in France and abroad. Acting as a mentor in Europe, Russia and Asia, he also is involved in several business-incubator and booster programs. A real showman, his lectures will blow your mind and beliefs and broaden your outlook. Get ready for a real tornado! The future of humans in a digital world InSIGHT: Future Talk with Alexander Mankowsky printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, June 2018, Issue 206
Content From drone swarms to tree batteries, new tech is revolutionising ecology and conservation by Euan Ritchie and Blake Allan Yanny or Laurel The Future Now Show: Global Economy with Peter R Luik hosted by Miss Metaverse Energy Predictions – What Is The Future Of Energy? News about the Future: Digital Weeding / An electronic rescue dog Oudebosch eco-cabins at Kogelberg Nature Reserve Recommended Book: The New Human Rights Movement: Reinventing the Economy to End Oppression by Peter Joseph What Plants Talk About Futurist Portrait: Alexander Mankowsky Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal.The Future Now Show: Global Economy with Peter R Luiks hosted by Miss Metaverse“The Future Now Show gets a personal opinion about the global economy; where it’s at, what’s coming next, but much more – you can’t talk about the global economy without including geopolitics, from what drives Russia and China, to immigration and the refugee crisis. Peter Luiks makes clear from the start that he is not one for political correctness, so strap yourself in.” – Paul Holister Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman From drone swarms to tree batteries, new tech is revolutionising ecology and conservation By Euan Ritchie, Associate Professor in Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, Centre for Integrative Ecology, School of Life & Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Australia and Blake Allan, Deakin University Understanding Earth’s species and ecosystems is a monumentally challenging scientific pursuit. But with the planet in the grip of its sixth mass extinction event, it has never been a more pressing priority. To unlock nature’s secrets, ecologists turn to a variety of scientific instruments and tools. Sometimes we even repurpose household items, with eyebrow-raising results – whether it’s using a tea strainer to house ants, or tackling botfly larvae with a well-aimed dab of nail polish. But there are many more high-tech options becoming available for studying the natural world. In fact, ecology is on the cusp of a revolution, with new and emerging technologies opening up new possibilities for insights into nature and applications for conserving biodiversity. Our study, published in the journal Ecosphere, tracks the progress of this technological development. Here we highlight a few examples of these exciting advances. Tiny tracking sensors Electronically recording the movement of animals was first made possible by VHF radio telemetry in the 1960s. Since then even more species, especially long-distance migratory animals such as caribou, shearwaters and sea turtles, have been tracked with the help of GPS and other satellite data. But our understanding of what affects animals’ movement and other behaviours, such as hunting, is being advanced further still by the use of “bio-logging” – equipping the animals themselves with miniature sensors. Many types of miniature sensors have now been developed, including accelerometers, gyroscopes, magnetometers, micro cameras, and barometers. Together, these devices make it possible to track animals’ movements with unprecedented precision. We can also now measure the “physiological cost” of behaviours – that is, whether an animal is working particularly hard to reach a destination, or within a particular location, to capture and consume its prey. Taken further, placing animal movement paths within spatially accurate 3D-rendered (computer-generated) environments will allow ecologists to examine how individuals respond to each other and their surroundings. These devices could also help us determine whether animals are changing their behaviour in response to threats such as invasive species or habitat modification. In turn, this could tell us what conservation measures might work best. Autonomous vehicles Remotely piloted vehicles, including drones, are now a common feature of our skies, land, and water. Beyond their more typical recreational uses, ecologists are deploying autonomous vehicles to measure environments, observe species, and assess changes through time, all with a degree of detail that was never previously possible. Coupling autonomous vehicles with sensors (such as thermal imaging) now makes it easier to observe rare, hidden or nocturnal species. It also potentially allows us to catch poachers red-handed, which could help to protect animals like rhinoceros, elephants and pangolins. 3D printing Despite 3D printing having been pioneered in the 1980s, we are only now beginning to realise the potential uses for ecological research. For instance, it can be used to make cheap, lightweight tracking devices that can be fitted onto animals. Or it can be used to create complex and accurate models of plants, animals or other organisms, for use in behavioural studies. Bio-batteries Keeping electronic equipment running in the field can be a challenge. Conventional batteries have limited life spans, and can contain toxic chemicals. Solar power can help with some of these problems, but not in dimly lit areas, such as deep in the heart of rainforests. “Bio-batteries” may help to overcome this challenge. They convert naturally occurring sources of chemical energy, such as starch, into electricity using enzymes. “Plugging-in” to trees may allow sensors and other field equipment to be powered cheaply for a long time in places without sun or access to mains electricity. Combining technologies All of the technologies described above sit on a continuum from previous (now largely mainstream) technological solutions, to new and innovative ones now being trialled. Illustrative timeline of new technologies in ecology and environmental science. Source and further details at DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2163. Euan Ritchie Imagine research stations fitted with remote cameras and acoustic recorders equipped with low-power computers for image and animal call recognition, powered by trees via bio-batteries. These devices could use low-power, long-range telemetry both to communicate with each other in a network, potentially tracking animal movement from one location to the next, and to transmit information to a central location. Swarms of drones working together could then be deployed to map the landscape and collect data from a central location wirelessly, without landing. The drones could then land in a location with an internet connection and transfer data into cloud-based storage, accessible from anywhere in the world. Visualisation of a future smart research environment, integrating multiple ecological technologies. The red lines indicate data transfer via the Internet of things (IoT), in which multiple technologies are communicating with one another. The gray lines indicate more traditional data transfer. Broken lines indicate data transferred over long distances. (1) Bio-batteries; (2) The Internet of things (IoT); (3) Swarm theory; (4) Long-range low-power telemetry; (5) Solar power; (6) Low-power computer; (7) Data transfer via satellite; and (8) Bioinformatics. Source and further details at DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2163. Euan Ritchie These advancements will not only generatemore accurate research data, but should also minimise the disturbance to species and ecosystems in the process. Not only will this minimise the stress to animals and the inadvertent spread of diseases, but it should also provide a more “natural” picture of how plants, animals and other organisms interact. Read more: ‘Epic Duck Challenge’ shows drones can outdo people at surveying wildlife Realising the techno-ecological revolution will require better collaboration across disciplines and industries. Ecologists should ideally also be exposed to relevant technology-based training (such as engineering or IT) and industry placements early in their careers. Several initiatives, such as Wildlabs, the Conservation Technology Working Group and TechnEcology, are already addressing these needs. But we are only just at the start of what’s ultimately possible. Yanny or Laurel “Yanny or Laurel” is an auditory illusion that became popular in May 2018. In the brief audio recording, 53% of over 500,000 people answered on a Twitter poll that they heard a man saying the word “Laurel”, while 47% reported hearing a voice saying the name “Yanny”. MIT grad students explain why some people hear “Yanny” and others hear “Laurel” in the audio clip that’s taken the world by storm. The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show June 2018 Global Economy withPeter R. Luiks hosted byMiss Metaverse “The Future Now Show gets a personal opinion about the global economy; where it’s at, what’s coming next, but much more – you can’t talk about the global economy without including geopolitics, from what drives Russia and China, to immigration and the refugee crisis. Peter Luiks makes clear from the start that he is not one for political correctness, so strap yourself in.” – Paul Holister The Future Now Showfeatures The Future Now Show Energy Predictions – What Is The Future Of Energy? Innovate UK We’ve all heard of green energy, but what about smart energy? Thanks to new innovations, the future is looking brighter than ever. The energy system of the future won’t look like today’s. The scale of change over the next 10 to 20 years will be considerable. The main focus will be on local, low-carbon energy. Thanks to the continuing rise of renewable energy like wind and solar power, the old economies of scale are being turned upside down so that generating and using energy locally will represent better value than the old system of generating energy at scale in relatively few, centralised, power plants. Here are some of our predictions for the future of energy.Decentralised energy and digital technologies One of the major benefits of decentralised energy is the move away from inefficient large power stations to localised production, so that energy won’t have to travel so far. Getting major energy users on board The move to new, greener production and consumption of energy will only be successful if major consumers are also on board. It’s estimated that the cold chain in the UK currently consumes around 14% of all electricity generated, with food retailers operating massive networks of machines distributed throughout the UK. Energy as a Service To make energy part of the circular economy – where, rather than producing, using and disposing of resources, they are kept in use for as long as possible, recovered, regenerated and re-used – there will need to be a shift away from buying energy in kWh and towards buying energy as a service. This means that instead of consumers buying energy from a supplier, they pay a company to get energy at the best price, get the best value from the energy they generate, and improve the efficiency of their homes so that they use less energy. Free energy? It’s easier than ever for us to generate green energy. The cost of renewable generation equipment is coming down, and the amount of energy on the grid is going up – often to such levels that during sunny days or when there’s a lot of wind, there can actually be too much energy on the grid. The swings that this creates in wholesale prices can mean that prices can go ‘negative’, so that there is effectively ‘free’ energy on the grid. Consumers at the heart The biggest change of all is that consumers will go from being on the edge of the energy system to being at its heart. They will have more control over where their energy comes from, how and when they want to consume it, and can take an active role in making sure it doesn’t cost the earth. News about the Future Digital Weeding Zasso Group specializes in weed and invasive plant control technologies by using high-voltage electric power. Zasso destroys both the shoots and the even more critical roots of plants by employing advanced lightweight high-voltage methods. These powerful systems deliver safe and robust solutions without requiring any chemical agro-toxics – save for the environment, the infrastructure and human beings.Specifically designed electric applicators run high-energy power through the whole plant, clearing targeted areas accurately within seconds and keeping them free of plants for months without any such side effects as chemical residues, chemical drift and resulting plant damages, soil erosion, damages to infrastructure caused by mechanical elimination. An electronic rescue dog ETH Zurich scientists have developed the smallest and cheapest ever equipment for detecting people by smell. It could be used in the search for people buried by an earthquake or avalanche.A new measuring device from researchers at ETH Zurich led by Sotiris Pratsinis, Professor of Process Engineering, however, is always ready for use. The scientists had previously developed small and extremely sensitive gas sensors for acetone, ammonia, and isoprene – all metabolic products that we emit in low concentrations via our breath or skin. The researchers have now combined these sensors in a device with two commercial sensors for CO2 and moisture. Oudebosch eco-cabins at Kogelberg Nature Reserve AfriSam-SAIA Award for Sustainable Architecture and Innovation Tucked away in an UNESCO World Heritage Site in the mountains above Betty’s Bay, Oudebosch Camp nestles unobtrusively within a protected wilderness area in the Kogelberg Biosphere in South Africa. The buildings are modestly scaled, lightweight, with planted roofs. The palette of natural, local, renewable, low embodied energy, non toxic materials and components develops the low impact sustainable qualities of the project. Low tech simple passive design principles underpin crafting of the building envelope which is shaped for the shifting seasons. Recommended Book The New Human Rights Movement:Reinventing the Economy to End Oppressionby Peter Joseph Society is broken. We can design our way to a better one. In our interconnected world, self-interest and social-interest are rapidly becoming indistinguishable. If current negative trajectories remain, including growing climate destabilization, biodiversity loss, and economic inequality, an impending future of ecological collapse and societal destabilization will make “personal success” virtually meaningless. Yet our broken social system incentivizes behavior that will only make our problems worse. If true human rights progress is to be achieved today, it is time we dig deeper – rethinking the very foundation of our social system. In this engaging, important work, Peter Joseph, founder of the world’s largest grassroots social movement – The Zeitgeist Movement – draws from economics, history, philosophy, and modern public-health research to present a bold case for rethinking activism in the 21st century. Arguing against the long-standing narrative of universal scarcity and other pervasive myths that defend the current state of affairs, The New Human Rights Movement illuminates the structural causes of poverty, social oppression, and the ongoing degradation of public health, and ultimately presents the case for an updated economic approach. Joseph explores the potential of this grand shift and how we can design our way to a world where the human family has become truly sustainable. The New Human Rights Movement reveals the critical importance of a unified activism working to overcome the inherent injustice of our system. This book warns against what is in store if we continue to ignore the flaws of our socioeconomic approach, while also revealing the bright and expansive future What Plants Talk About When we think about plants, we don’t often associate a term like “behavior” with them, but experimental plant ecologist JC Cahill wants to change that. The University of Alberta professor maintains that plants do behave and lead anything but solitary and sedentary lives. What Plants Talk About teaches us all that plants are smarter and much more interactive than we thought! Futurist Portrait: Alexander Mankowsky Alexander Mankowsky, Futures Studies & Ideation, Daimler AG “Future Studies & Ideation as a working field requires explanation:Future Studies normally results in reports made from scenarios about possible futures. Most often these futures are slightly dystopian or alarmist. These reports then are thrown at business and government, with the request on ‘do something about it’, which is the reason for the alarmist undertone. Personally I find this procedure boring and unsatisfying, even irresponsible. To make more about it, I added the ‘& Ideation’, to show that after the insight in possible futures, the product should be a concept, developed together with creative people from many professions. Take some risk; get your hands dirty, that’s where the fun part begins.” printable version
Club of Amsterdam Journal, May 2018, Issue 205
Content The fishy problem of underwater noise pollution by Adam Crane and Maud Ferrari Consumerism The Future Now Show: the future of Financial Services with John Best hosted by Miss Metaverse Tribalism – Security or Sovereignty? by Mara Lemanis News about the Future: Voting in real time / The Next Wave Of Tech-For-Good Companies Are Being Built By Women And Minorities Resilient by Design Recommended Book: The Future by Nick Montfort Processed Food by Robert Lustig Futurist Portrait: John Renesch Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show: the future of Financial Services with John Best hosted by Miss Metaverse With an emphasis on maintaining the culture, services, and features you have carefully crafted for your customers over the years, these strategies allow you to make your organization more resistant to digital disruption by adopting key technologies at key points in their evolution. – John Best, author of Breaking Digital Gridlock Felix B Bopp, Founder & Chairman The fishy problem of underwater noise pollution by Adam Crane and Maud Ferrari By Adam Crane, Postdoctoral Fellow, University of Saskatchewan and Maud Ferrari, Associate Professor, University of Saskatchewan Listen Ambient noise These sounds are produced by the motion of the atmosphere, water and seafloor, by animals and, now more than ever, by machines created by humans. Nowadays, the underwater soundscape includes the roar of motors, the ping of military SONAR and the bangs and blasts from offshore development.Communication breakdown For fish, whales and other marine animals, intense underwater noises from blasts can cause acoustic trauma and even death. More common quieter noise, such as construction or shipping noise, may not kill the animals directly, but can disrupt their ability to find food, mates or avoid predators. Researchers use a hydrophone to record and measure noise from a passing motorboat. Maud Ferrari A wide range of species use acoustic signals to communicate with each other. Marine fishes, for instance, are known to make chirps, pops, knocks and grunts using their teeth, swim bladders or fins. One consequence of anthropogenic — humanmade — noise is a masking effect. When the noise is close to a fish, it reduces that individual’s ability to hear the sounds of others. Noise also interferes with the sounds this individual produces, jamming communication. School of noise More and more, scientists are discovering that noise not only interferes with an animal’s cognitive processing of sounds, but also other types of stimuli, such as sight or smell. For example, boat noise interferes with the visual signals that cuttlefish use to communicate with each other. Recent research in our lab indicated that noise can also impair an animal’s ability to process the chemical information released after a predator attack on shoal mates. We looked at the effects of noise from small motorboats on coral-reef fishes at Lizard Island Research Station at the Great Barrier Reef in Australia. In the lab, we trained young damselfish to recognize the odour of the predatory dottyback as a threat. Some fish were trained in the presence of boat noise, while the others were trained with the ambient sound of the ocean. A juvenile Ambon Damselfish being measured for body size traits. (Maud Ferrari) We found that fish trained with boat noise showed no fright reactions when they were exposed to the predator. It was as though they had had no preparation at all. The fish trained in the absence of boat noise, however, were scared. They reduced activity and foraging. We taught another group of fish to recognize the smell and sight of three common predators — in the presence or absence of boat noise — and then we released them back into the wild. School is out It turns out that fish don’t learn very well in noisy environments. After three days, only 20 per cent of the fish exposed to boat noise were still alive, compared to almost 70 per cent of unexposed fish. We often think of the ways climate change, overfishing and run-off pollution threaten fish populations in the Great Barrier Reef, but our study adds to the growing evidence that boat noise may also contribute to fish death through a failure to learn. Boat noise can have a variety of negative impacts on fishes. It can change their activity, force them to live in bad habitats and decrease their ability to feed, defend their territory, reproduce and avoid predators. In some places, such as biodiversity hotspots or sensitive habitats, it may be prudent to create rules or laws that minimize the impacts of noise. Approaches to mitigate the effects of boat noise may include the implementation of quiet zones, speed restrictions or the use of mufflers or low-volume engine models. For example, quiet zones were recently implemented in British Columbia to protect a population of killer whales. Humans rely on the ocean for its biodiversity and natural resources. It also plays a fundamental role in regulating atmospheric temperatures and gases. Cousteau cared deeply about ocean conservation and was gravely concerned about ocean pollution and the over-harvest of marine life. Today’s seas continue to face these threats, as well as from habitat destruction, warming and ocean acidification. These ocean threats are also human threats. As Cousteau said, “For most of history, man has had to fight nature to survive; in this century he is beginning to realize that, in order to survive, he must protect it.” Consumerism I shop therefore I am The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show May 2018 the future of Financial Services withJohn Best hosted byMiss Metaverse With an emphasis on maintaining the culture, services, and features you have carefully crafted for your customers over the years, these strategies allow you to make your organization more resistant to digital disruption by adopting key technologies at key points in their evolution. – John Best, author of Breaking Digital Gridlock The Future Now Showfeatures The Future Now Show Tribalism – Security or Sovereignty? by Mara Lemanis “When people have tried everything and have discovered that nothing works, they will tend to revert to what they know best – which will often be the tribe, the totem, or the taboo.”– Christopher Hitchens Having done work with the Great Plains Indians of South Dakota, I glimpsed a social contract different from the one that has become a major impasse across the globe. As a movement populism seeks to bulwark political cohesion based on a common cultural history and national identity. To the extent that it aspires to homogeneity of attitude, sentiment, and sense of purpose it also looks to secure itself against ethnic diversity as well as local elites. In concerted opposition to a heterogeneous polity, populism claims prime legitimacy among its supporters and treats the opposition as illegitimate. Its most trenchant form is evidenced in Poland, where the Law and Justice party (PiS) holds power, and Hungary, where Fidesz, the right-wing political party, proclaims “nationalism based on soil, blood, culture.” Hallmarks of democracy, such as a free press or media, and an independent judiciary, have been disabled or derailed. Often the word “tribal” is used as a blanket description of an inflexible political stance based on the belief that it is genetically inherited. Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker ascribed the populist condition to the outcome of “our impulses of authoritarianism and tribalism.” Countering this facile rhetoric of dependence on a metaphor that covers supremely nationalistic ambitions are the actual behaviors of tribes as researched and compiled by anthropologists. Their studies show that the history of multiple, actual tribes does not conform to any concept about the deep-seated, organic nature of human society. Their analyses indicate nothing about a genetic cellular attribute, nor some instinctual inheritance that can never be modified or denied. Unlike religious constructs or undifferentiated populist movements, the sense of identity among aboriginal cultures is much more fluid. While nationalism is protectionist and anti-immigrant, tribal life has been disposed toward reciprocity both within and across different communities. Cultures such as the Native American tribes, the Berbers of North Africa, the Lozi of Central Africa, and the Mae Enja of Papua, New Guinea seek out enemy groups to advise them on selecting leaders and settling disputes. Authentic tribes, documented by anthropologists, practice four kinds of social interaction: ” They often adopt outsiders into their community” Marry members from opponent tribes” Are anti-authoritarian and do not endorse absolute judgments.” Avoid rigid structural identities in order to limit social isolation The common feature among these modalities is the desire to prevent internal division since societies that cultivate inequality eventually destabilize and spur internal violence. It has become common that the divisions among technological societies between working people and elites have been flouted as tribal allegiances and tribal enmity. Over the last generation this division has increasingly sharpened against immigrants, especially Muslims, and the political establishments that buttress them. The glaring example of this has been in Hungary, where the prime minister’s popularity rose when he implemented a policy to keep out refugees. Other nations-Poland, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia-have followed suit. A strong, underlying fear across Europe is that populations who consider themselves to be the ethnic natives and carriers of a legacy intrinsic to the cultural pride and legacy of their country are no longer dominant, are fast disappearing. Undeniably the undertow of economic downturns has led to stagnation in many European nations and caused the departure of their youth. Sweden and Denmark believe their welfare systems are under threat from an influx of refugees. “Stop immigration and stop Islamization” has become an unabashed slogan making a blatant appeal. Unlike the practice among aboriginal tribes in America and in numerous other regions of the world where cutting across cultures led to greater inclusion, the U.S., Britain, and Europe have been agitating for greater exclusion. By advocating greater, not lesser participation in their governing councils the identity and sense of purpose for the Iroquois Confederacy in the U.S., as well as the Pashtuns in Pakistan and Afghanistan have been strengthened. By honoring opposing views and attitudes from disparate groups they have been able to arrive at consensus, thus increasing their self-determination. Can there be any other paradigm for the world’s nations to build a stronger base within their borders? How willing are they to expel those immigrants now residing within their borders or repel the ones without? Would they be willing to corral the growing populace of displaced migrants and herd them into a ghetto or conduct them to some desolate island while defraying the cost of their sustenance? Finally what can be the meaning of a social contract that withdraws from its original principles and goals to shrink toward a narrow welfare, a hardened core solely protecting self-proclaimed nativists? Then what sort of humanity does a social contract espouse? These are questions that might be posed to all of us in all the nations of our world. The signing of the Mayflower Compact – a basic set of rules between the Native American tribes and the Colonists at Plymouth, Massachusetts. News about the Future Voting in real time My Vote‘s ambition is to build a secure online voting platform that will allow for greater election transparency. MyVote is a web-based application that enables you to create ranking, rating, and poll voting contests and view the results in real time. The audience can participate live on their mobile phones, tablets and desktops. There is nothing to download or install.Blockchain technology already secures billions of dollars around the world. We believe it should secure our votes as well. Using the unparalleled security of blockchain technology, we are poised to disrupt the established voting industry by offering a more cost-effective and technologically superior solution. The Next Wave Of Tech-For-Good Companies Are Being Built By Women And Minorities A new report by Fast Forward looks at the demographics of so-called “tech nonprofits.” That report, entitled “The State of Diversity and Funding in the Tech Nonprofit Sector,” shows that 47% of all tech nonprofit founders are women, compared to just 17% at traditional startups. Minorities make up 30% of all tech nonprofit founders compared to 13% in the for-profit field. Just what earns a nonprofit that “tech nonprofit” distinction could be the subject of its own debate. “We classify a tech nonprofit as a tech company building original software or hardware, but leveraging a nonprofit business model so they can focus 100% on social impact,” notes report co-author Christina Shatzen. Resilient by Design www.resilientbayarea.org A year-long collaborative design challenge bringing together local residents, public officials and local, national and international experts to develop innovative community-based solutions that will strengthen our region’s resilience to sea level rise, severe storms, flooding and earthquakes. The BIG + ONE + Sherwood Team is co-led by Bjarke Ingels Group (BIG), One Architecture + Urbanism (ONE), and Sherwood Design Engineers (Sherwood). The team also includes experts from Moffat & Nichol, Nelson Nygaard, Strategic Economics, and The Dutra Group. The Team brings together significant international experience in Denmark, the Netherlands, and the Bay Area with a variety of experience in designing spaces that are vulnerable to climate events by understanding a region’s economic, political and social environment. The Team is founded on a shared belief in the power of well-designed spaces that are connected to their contexts – ecologically, economically, and socially – and overall play a transformative role in the cities where they are located. With a collective commitment to embrace the interconnected, rich, and diverse set of human and non-human ecosystems that comprise the Bay Area, the BIG + ONE + Sherwood Team looks at the city as a Social Ecosystem – one where we can proactively design the links between nature, and culture, between people, and their environment. Recommended Book The Futureby Nick Montfort How the future has been imagined and made, through the work of writers, artists, inventors, and designers. The future is like an unwritten book. It is not something we see in a crystal ball, or can only hope to predict, like the weather. In this volume of the MIT Press’s Essential Knowledge series, Nick Montfort argues that the future is something to be made, not predicted. Montfort offers what he considers essential knowledge about the future, as seen in the work of writers, artists, inventors, and designers (mainly in Western culture) who developed and described the core components of the futures they envisioned. Montfort’s approach is not that of futurology or scenario planning; instead, he reports on the work of making the future – the thinkers who devoted themselves to writing pages in the unwritten book. Douglas Engelbart, Alan Kay, and Ted Nelson didn’t predict the future of computing, for instance. They were three of the people who made it. Montfort focuses on how the development of technologies – with an emphasis on digital technologies – has been bound up with ideas about the future. Readers learn about kitchens of the future and the vision behind them; literary utopias, from Plato’s Republic to Edward Bellamy’s Looking Backward and Charlotte Perkins Gilman’s Herland; the Futurama exhibit at the 1939 New York World’s Fair; and what led up to Tim Berners-Lee’s invention of the World Wide Web. Montfort describes the notebook computer as a human-centered alterative to the idea of the computer as a room-sized “giant brain”; speculative practice in design and science fiction; and, throughout, the best ways to imagine and build the future. Processed Food Dr. Robert Lustig believes the food business, by pushing processed food loaded with sugar, has hacked our bodies and minds to pursue pleasure instead of happiness; fostering today’s epidemics of addiction and depression. Yet by focusing on real food, we can beat the odds against sugar, processed food, obesity, and disease. The Hacking of the American MindThe Science Behind the Corporate Takeover of Our Bodies and BrainsLustig, Robert H. “We all know that we can’t put down our sodas or our cell phones. But what if these cravings are engineered — by design? And what if these desires actually cause damage — not just to ourselves, but to our families, our friends, and our entire society? While researching the toxic impact of sugar on our health for his New York Times best seller Fat Chance, Robert Lustig made a discovery that reaches beyond the politics of food. Our seemingly innocent addictions are far from it — they are biochemical, and they are damaging our bodies and our brains. With his trademark wit and incisiveness, Lustig reveals how these chemicals interact with one another to drive our behaviors, and how Big Business uses the science of addiction to keep us hooked — to our detriment, and for their profit. Dopamine is the ‘reward’ neurotransmitter that tells our brains ‘This feels good, I want more.’ Yet too much dopamine leads to addiction. Serotonin is the ‘contentment’ neurotransmitter that tells our brains ‘This feels good, I have enough.’ Yet too little serotonin leads to depression. Ideally, both should be in optimal supply. But too many of our simple pleasures have morphed into something else — a 6.5-ounce soda has become a Big Gulp; an afternoon with friends has been replaced by 1,000 friendings on Facebook. What we think we want, what we’re told will bring us happiness, is just a clever marketing scheme to lead us to consume more and more. Wall Street, Madison Avenue, Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, and Washington, DC., have gotten inside our heads, exploiting newly discovered brain physiology and chemistry to confuse and conflate pleasure with happiness. Our behaviors are not our own, because our minds have been hacked. But there are ways to reclaim our health and our lives. Using that same brain science, Lustig offers solutions to defend ourselves against Corporate America, and to reengage in the pursuit of happiness, even in the face of overwhelming opposition. And the time to take action — for ourselves, for our children, and for all of society — is now.” — Jacket. Dr. Robert LustigThe Hacking of the American Mind at the San Francisco Public Library Futurist Portrait: John Renesch John Renesch is an advisor, mentor, futurist and writer on matters of social and organizational change. He believes that commerce holds the key to bringing about a global shift of human consciousness thus creating a future of tremendous possibility for humankind – the possibility that will allow humanity to transcend the inevitable future that can be projected from current trends. (…) John: “It is so easy to give lip service to doing the right thing, stating the moral high ground, saying what people want to hear but an entirely different moral toughness is required to keep our word – to do what we say we are going to do. After years of hearing these tentative “commitments” the rest of us have gotten used to people reneging on their promises and not keeping their word. The worst of it? It has become “socially acceptable”; that is, we have grown accustomed to people failing to do what they say and we let them off the hook. Empty promises have become quite common. (…) –Journal of Values-Based Leadership (…) John: “Coaching leaders in consciousness requires a unique approach since the subject is ineffable. It requires a non-linear holistic approach that defies straight fact-learning or skill enhancing.” (…) – Coaching Psychology International printable version