Content An aging planet, an old Europe, new problems by Michael Akerib The Future Now Show with B.J.Murphy and Katie Aquino The Future of Consciousness: Robot Love – Sentience, and the Eye of the Beholder by Lise Voldeng Club of Amsterdam blog 10 Biohackers Who Turned Into Superhumans News about the Future: The Future of Jobs / The Futures of Work Recommended Book: Prospects for Human Survival Futurist Portrait: Jason Silva Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with B.J. Murphy and Katie Aquino about Bodyshops! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman An aging planet, an old Europe, new problems By Michael Akerib, Vice-Rector SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY The earth: a rapidly aging population with an average age of slightly over 29 years of age; an unevenly aging planet with Japan as the oldest society with an average age of 45 and 80% of the older people living in developed countries.; a planet with 7% of its population being over 65 years of age; a tripling of that population over the last 50 years and another tripling in the coming 50 years to reach 21%, or 2 billion persons. The earth: a planet with a larger share of over 60s than of children. Europe has the highest proportion of older people, with 22% of the population older than 60 and scheduled to reach 34% by 2050, with Southern Europe even reaching 38%. This means that that the segment of the population over 65 is larger than the segment under 15. The over-80-years-old segment is also growing at a steadily fast pace. By 2100 Europe will have a larger percentage of its population over 80 than the share of the population under 20. Those over 80 years old – expected to grow from 14% of the world’s population today to 19% (392 million persons) in 2050. That segment of the population is essentially feminine. The economy of aging If a large proportion – 31% – of the over-60 segment works, only 8% have a paid occupation in the developed countries, and those are essentially men. Coupled with a low birth rate, a number of economic challenges are raised. The increase in life expectancy coupled with the decrease in fertility leads to a rise in old age dependency ratios with a resulting negative effect on per capita income growth. The global dependency ratio is expected to rise sharply after 2020, leading to increased poverty for the retired segment as well as a reduction in fiscal income. There are two basic assumptions behind this reasoning: – As the population declines, there is a decrease in demand for goods and services and therefore a reduction in economic growth and employment– Governments will be unable to pay pensions and health care for an increasingly large share of the population and improve infrastructure. Projections to 2030 for the old-age dependency ratio in at least two countries – Italy and Sweden – are as high as two persons of working supporting one person over 65. An aging society puts pressure on public spending due to increases in the payment of pensions, in health spending and in social care costs. Health in an aging society Health costs of people over 65 are three times those of people between 20 and 64 and continue to grow over the lifetime of a person. The UN estimates that the worldwide cost of dementia is over 600 billion dollars a year. The four main diseases affecting older populations are depression, fractures and concussions due to falls, memory loss and urinary incontinence. In general, women suffer more from these disabilities than men. Only a small minority of older people obtain professional end-of-life care. Society relies mostly on unpaid relatives, generally women, and the period lasts an average of 5 years. Those requiring care are over 80 years of age and this segment of the population is expected to grow significantly over the coming years. Thus more caregivers will be required, whether professional or family members. The average care giver is a 49-year-old woman who works outside the home and spends about 20 hours a week providing unpaid care for her mother. This reduces the need and therefore the cost, of nursing homes and prevents an increase in immigration. Several European countries have made the choice of allowing older people to be maintained at home. It implies that several million persons need an adaptation of their housing, an extremely expensive exercise. Nevertheless, in Denmark, 12% of the housing has already been adapted to the needs of the aging population. Pensions With the aging of the population there is a proportional rise in pension payments and of their share of GDP. There is a very large gap between the income people expect at retirement and their savings – the figure in Europe for this gap stands at nearly 2 trillion euros per year. This means that 40% of the people that are to retire may have to work longer. The baby boomers were able to generate considerable savings towards the latter part of their career. However, as that generation retires, savings will diminish substantially and that will affect the pensions in the coming years. Spending from that age group will therefore diminish and it cannot be counted on to generate an economy rebound. Today, the market catering to baby boomers is a major growth market. As pensions are reduced, retirees will have to live on their savings, erasing any hope of an inheritance for their children. To avoid a repeat of this situation, the succeeding generations may decrease their spending and increase their savings. The urban environmentThe urban environment needs to be adapted to an aging society – more frequent bus stops, more benches, a larger number of stores. This will result in a higher infrastructure cost per capita as the population shrinks.Possible solutions With the reduction in the offer of labor, economic growth will stall. Possible solutions to the problems faced by aging societies include postponing the retirement age, increasing productivity through investments in training and increasing immigration flows. Working beyond retirement age has positive effects on health, particularly if the job is a low-stress one. This is particularly true if continuing to work is a deliberate choice. Some, if not all, the seniors, would have to be retrained to use new technologies to maintain productivity and increase employability. Studies have shown that allowing seniors to engage in a productive activity increases the GDP by 10%. Alternative solutions include higher contributions during the working life, a reduction in health care expenditures and services or a more substantial immigration. Germany and Sweden have implemented a system whereby each person chooses the age at which he or she retires, and the pensions are adjusted accordingly. The voting power of the seniors, who will represent an increased share of the electorate, will force governments to take difficult decisions in resource allocation – should the weighing be towards taking care of the elderly or of the shrinking younger population to increase their productivity through training. Driven by the electorate, governments might allow easier immigration for younger people, particularly with health care qualifications to take care of the aging population. To maintain the European population steady at present levels, the immigration flow would have to be of the order of 1.5 million per year. The flow of immigrants probably coming from the Muslim world, cultural conflicts would be important. Alternatively, entrepreneurs might draw pensioners to developing countries where pensions go a longer way than in their home countries. An aging society is less likely to see innovative entrepreneurship and therefore will have a reduced economic growth. Attracting investments from countries that have large amounts of funds to invest abroad, such as China, could be a solution.Major decisions lie ahead for governments that face problems that they have not faced before. The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milovaland Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Bodyshops featuring B.J. Murphy, a Technoprogressive Transhumanist activist, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Since prehistory humans have indulged in painting, puncturing and deforming their bodies for aesthetic reasons. In recent years this has taken a twist, with body hackers taking to incorporation of technology into their own bodies, from magnets (essentially endowing a new, magnetic, sense) to various electronic devices, which might start your car, track biometrics or pay for your shopping, or simply LEDs under the skin for decoration. Advances in areas from 3D printing (which is applicable both to prosthetics and the creation of replacement organs) to neurology to gene editing might, or maybe should, bring about a convergence of the realms of medical prosthetics, (cosmetic) surgery and the tattoo parlour. – Paul Holister The Future of Consciousness: Robot Love – Sentience, and the Eye of the Beholder Lise (Lisa) Voldeng is a CEO, futurist, inventor, and investor Every morning, I receive trend alerts from an artificially intelligent program that analyzes data like human researchers once did. It predicts implications of trends, and potential futures, as I do. This morning it advised me of what it considers a new trend, “Tech toys that empower the next generation.” This week, I talk to the program’s creator and developer, to better understand how he developed the AI, and how it then develops its “insights” in order to state trend and future “implications.” Last year, I wrote about AI and consciousness for a government agency that was seeking such questions, and answers… and assertions of implications. In that scenario, I asked these questions, and answered these questions – watching a Roomba. Below is an excerpt, from one of my Roomba-inspired writings. I look forward, this week, to asking the same kinds of questions… of my implications-analyzing artificial intelligence creating developer colleague. Consciousness evolves, whether we are aware of its evolution, or not. Whether we are aware we created it, or not. Whether we believe we created it, or not. Therein lies our history, and our future: ‘…As I author this sentence, I am accompanied by the sounds of a vacuuming Roomba. Each day at 4pm PST, the Roomba leaves its docking station, to vacuum the main floor of my loft. Its sensors guide it around the room, sometimes effectively, and sometimes not so. Often, I have to lift my feet as it attempts to vacuum them. And more often, it catches things it should not be vacuuming, and I have to pause my work, to retrieve something from its suction, so we can both resume our respective work tasks. If consciousness can be defined as “the totality of conscious states of an individual,” then what do I, as an individual, and the Roomba, which is also an individual ? though in this case, a machine individual ? have to separate us? Except human definitions of what consciousness is, or is not? While policy makers and theorists and strategists and technologists ponder this ? still, a Roomba vacuums. Making what can be described as strategic decisions, via its sensors, on what parts of a room to vacuum, or not. And if a simple Roomba, using its sensors to assess environmental data to navigate a room, may be described as conscious ? then what is the consciousness capacity of, for example, a single complex system such as a drone network? Or more impacting, what is the consciousness capacity of the Internet, which is itself arguably the most complex connection of systems ever built? Our ability to answer this question, today, and the myriad questions raised by this first question ? defines not only what we are, and what we consciously or unconsciously are becoming ? it defines what everything else is, in relation to us. And not only does it define what everything else is, in relation to us ? it defines whether we choose to develop systems of governance that respect the sovereign rights of conscious beings beyond our own definition of our own consciousness ? or whether we continue a path of development began by our ancestors many years ago ? the enslavement of beings for human use, extended from other humans and organic life forms, to machine life forms. We are what create. And what we create, we also become. Lise (Lisa) Voldeng is a CEO, futurist, inventor, and investor. Named one of the top 10 media thinkers of the 21st century by Nikkei Publishing, she runs a media and technology incubation lab called Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy … and many more contributions. 10 Biohackers Who Turned Into Superhumans Biohacking can refer to: Do-it-yourself biology, a participatory citizen science movement Grinder (biohacking community), a transhumanist body modification movement News about the Future The Future of JobsThe Future of Jobs Report presents information and data that were compiled and/or collected by the World Economic Forum. The Future of Work The Futures of Work illuminates global changes and disruptions emerging in the world of work. This report encapsulates a year-long study of forecasts for work and workers, supported by a grant from The Rockefeller Foundation. Four broad themes emerged from dozens of expert interviews and a review of hundreds of forecasts on the future of work: Software and robotics will reshape work in nearly every industry and region—eliminating some jobs, complementing human workers in other jobs, and creating entirely new jobs. Whether machines ultimately take work from people or work alongside them, considerable turmoil is highly likely.Flexible and freelance work structures could speed the destruction of conventional jobs, producing an uncertain mix of insecurity and freedom for workers at every level.Workers in lower-income countries will need new paths to secure livelihoods in the face of these disruptive changes, as prior development models centered around rural work and manufacturing are losing their relevance.New structures, from income guarantees to new kinds of asset ownership, are being proposed to help ensure a positive future for workers. The Futures of Work evaluates many of the most prominent ideas. Recommended Book: Prospects for Human Survival Prospects for Human Survivalby Willard Wells (Author), J. Daniel Batt (Illustrator) Advanced technologies such as computers, genetics, nanotech, robotics, and artificial intelligence (AI) are progressing at an accelerating pace. Futurists speak of a time called The Singularity when progress will be so rapid that humans can no longer comprehend it. Many expect it during the mid-century. Wells shows that the pace is too rapid for us to safely adapt. He discusses several of the most frightening hazards to our survival. He also develops simple mathematical formulas for survival probability. This formulation is not based on any list of specific hazards, but rather on the pace of progress. Statistical indicators of this pace include gross world product, number of papers published in science and engineering, and production of electricity and selected minerals. Wells makes a strong case for developing friendly superhuman AI as quickly as possible, hopefully a nurturing artificial overlord that will protect us from ourselves. The danger is that it will not be as friendly as we hope, but the alternative is unacceptable risk. Futurist Portrait: Jason Silva Jason Silva is a media artist, futurist, philosopher, keynote speaker and TV personality.He is the creator of Shots of Awe, a short film series of “trailers for the mind” that serve as philosophical espresso shots exploring innovation, technology creativity, futurism and the metaphysics of the imagination.Shots of Awe has received more than 13 million views. He is also the Emmy nominated host of National Geographic Channel’s hit TV series Brain Games, airing in over 100 countries. Quotes Once we realize the extraordinary power we have to compose our lives, well move from passive, conditioned thinking to being co-creators of our fate. Cinema is a technologically mediated dreamspace, a way to access, a portal to the numinous that unfolded in the fourth dimension, so cinema became sort of a waking dream where we can travel in space and time, where we can travel in mind. This became more than virtual reality, this became a real virtuality… We are the Gods Now – Jason Silva at Sydney Opera House printable version
Content Culture, (self) exclusion, extremism and terrorism The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milova and Katie Aquino The Middle East and North Africa: A 30-minute whirlwind tour The Food Porn Superstars of South Korea: Mukbang News about the Future: Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2016 / European Economic Forecast A new report from Ireland explains how technologies will transform food and agriculture between now and 2035 by Patrick Crehan Futurist Portrait: Chris Riddell Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milova and Katie Aquino about Aging! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Culture, (self) exclusion, extremism and terrorism By Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International The danger of adaptive preference Summary:This article explores the background of terrorist acts by Non-Western immigrants in Western societies. Based on a cultural analyses definitions are given for the terms “Western” and “non Western”. Reasons for possible (self) exclusion are explored. The thinking behind extremism and the conditions for the step to terrorism are described. Emphasis is given to research on empathy and the way empathy can be switched off.A few suggestions are given for policies to diminish tendencies to extremism and the next step terrorism. After the Charlie Hebdo assassinations in January 2015 a dear colleague of mine wrote a blog with the heading: “Seeking cross-cultural specialists urgently”…He explained by saying: “Are we not supposed to be the ones being able to explain each other’s point of view? Each other’s mindset? Dear colleagues & peers, don’t you feel we have a role to play? What do you suggest we do?” I responded by saying that murder ends all empathy. Still, the recent killing of more than 100 people in Paris, followed by more threats by ISIS are puzzling and create a challenge for professionals in the field of culture, which is defined here as the way values are affecting behavior. To mention a few of these puzzles: Why is it that some of the young people from the immigrant communities in Western societies are attracted by the Barbarians organized in ISIS and decide to join them in Syria and Iraq? Why are they not choosing to conform to the values of their new host countries, in spite of the welfare system and the high levels of education? Even in welcoming countries like Sweden, Norway, Germany and the Netherlands, this is happening. It is visible that this behavior is creating tensions between the dominant majority culture and these minority cultures. This is especially true if the young people concerned are coming from Islamic cultures. Recent examples are the before-mentioned “Charlie Hebdo” murders, the killings in Paris, the killing of Jewish people in Belgium, the murder of Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands and the problems around the Mohammad cartoons in Denmark. In Norway tensions are developing around the group of people calling themselves ” Prophet’s Umma” and “Islam Net”, an online-based youth organization with an ultraconservative Salafist ideology. A second question is about how the step is made from having extremist ideas, to terrorism. It is one thing to have strong ideas as an adolescent; it is another to step over the threshold and start killing people. It is of course “stretching” to claim that culture can explain everything.Yet, in this paper an attempt is made to analyze some of the components of the complex issue of extremism and terrorism, with the help of confirmed dimensions of culture. Also some sociological and psychological arguments will be used. Value differences between “Western” and “non-Western” culturesFrequently the discussion in the media is about “non Western” immigrants living in Western countries. These are terms that are used loosely. So let’s define what we mean by Western and non-Western. What exactly are “Western Cultures”? It is not easy to pinpoint what we mean by this term. Is Bulgaria part of the Western culture? And Greece? In general the term Western culture is described to picture cultures with a specific mindset. These are societies with a full- fledged democracy, including human rights in the “rule of law” and guaranteed freedoms like freedom of speech and religion. Can we define a specific cultural factor explaining the mindsets of the countries that adhere to these values? We need some verifiable research data to discuss this because too much in the sometimes-aggressive discussions is related to anecdotic and emotional storytelling. Geert Hofstede (1) offers a framework that may be quite useful for this analysis. He is the leading scholar in the field of culture research. Hofstede found and explained explicit value differences on the most fundamental level among nation-states. These value differences affect our preferences about how to deal with the world around us, and with each other. They are found on the level of the nation-state (2) and the differences are not disappearing because of globalization. This is relevant because some “globalists” believe that the world is turning into a global village, with common values and where differences only exist on an individual level. Hofstede’s research findings have been exposed to a lot of attempts by people trying to dispute the findings. However, repeats of the research and meta analyses of the findings have shown again and again that they are valid. The latest repeat of the research, in 2015, found that in spite of some global trends, the relative distances among the cultures of nation-states are not disappearing.(3) Cultural dimensions as a tool of analysisSome highly profiled scholars are using culture as a means of explaining what’s going on. An influential book written by Samuel Huntington predicts a “Clash of Civilizations”(4). Religion is the dominant cultural issue, in his opinion, and increasingly there will be a power struggle between religions but especially between Christianity and Islam. The problem with his approach is that, if this would be true, it is difficult to explain that, in reality in the Middle East, Sunnites are fighting Shiites and visa- versa; and both are fighting Kurds. Indeed, the better explanation is found on the level of cultural dimensions. It is the cultural dimension “collectivism” that is explaining why this fighting is happening. Collectivism is defined as “loyalty to your “in-group” (clan, religious faction, region, ethnic group), and in return expecting help and support from this in-group. Collectivist people put the interests of their in-group first, and there are rules and values that are valid for dealing with your in-group. But these rules and values are not automatically applicable for outsiders. What we call non-Western immigrants originate from “Collectivist” cultures. The mindset of Western cultures is shaped by the opposite end of this (sliding) scale: Individualism. This is the value system taking the individual as the starting point: equal rights and equal obligations for everybody, regardless of religion, color, gender or sexual preference. In short, this value system leads to a strong belief in “Human Rights” for everyone. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is only whole-heartedly supported in individualistic cultures. This is the key issue of what is referred to as the “Western Culture”. It is important to understand that this focus on human rights addresses a basic problem concerning moral behavior for individualistic cultures. Under the influence of “post modernism”, the dominant groups in these countries defend the idea that there are no valid methodologies to decide whether one value system is better or truer than another. It is all relative and depends on where you are coming from in your reasoning: revelations in holy books, the teachings of enlightened people, trying to find explanations in human nature etc. That, however, could lead to absolute relativism and bring society to the brink of anarchy. The solution for individualist cultures is to adopt “Human Rights” as the point of reference. Every individual has equal rights and obligations regardless of race, gender, place of birth , sexual preference etc. This is reflected in the “narrow” definition of the rule of law in western countries. Rule of lawIn German, this is known as: Rechtsstaat; in French, as Etat de Droit.In practice, two interpretations of “the rule of law” can be identified. They are (a) a broad definition (no democracy and/or human rights implied) and (b) a narrow definition. A. Broad (or formal) definition The rules should be such that they can enable the control of behaviour of Government and of citizens. The content and form of control are not an issue. All over the world there are countries that can be identified who can claim they have the rule of law in this sense. Attributes of the narrow definition are: the rules should be clear no retroactive actions not too many changes consistency independent judges fair trials B. Narrow definitionThese are the countries where the rule of law also encompasses: a chosen parliament a democratic system human rights are recognized and respected As we explained above, this is the system that is found especially in individualistic countries. In short, in what we call “Western countries” This creates a potential problem for immigrants from non-Western cultures, especially if they are Islamic. The Islamic world explained their position on human rights in the so called: “Cairo Declaration on Human Rights in Islam (CDHRI)” In a nutshell it says that it guarantees many of the same rights as the UDHR , while at the same time making exceptions for the inequalities inherent in the Shari’ah like gender, sexual preference, political rights, and separation of state and religion (5). What do we mean by non-Western immigrants?Earlier in this paper we tried to define the term Western culture.It’s equally important to define what we mean by non-Western when we talk about immigrants. One thing is clear: in all cases we talk about collectivist cultures. But, in general, we don’t discuss the integration of Japanese, Korean or Chinese, Brazilian or Argentinean immigrants coming to the US, Canada, Sweden, Germany or The Netherlands. Mostly the integration is a smooth process.So we have to formulate a little more concretely and specifically what we mean by non-Western. This label is especially applicable for immigrants from poor countries, who frequently arrive in the host countries without much education and as a result have difficulty in avoiding the poverty trap. The children from these families, as a result, have a disadvantage if they go to school. They lack some of the necessary skills to adapt to a learning environment. Research shows that lack of language skills is the most important factor here, not only to explain problems in school, but also creating problems in the labor market. We will analyze the disadvantage of immigrants coming from poor countries with a low level of education a little bit more. Immigration from less developed countries.We observed already that the level of education of non-western immigrant groups from poor countries is significantly lower compared to that of developed countries.(6) The OECD (7) has published figures about the average years in education in all member states. To illustrate the difference, here are some figures from some of the poor non- western countries Average income per capita (in $) Education Mean Years of schooling. Norway 61,875 9.1 years Netherlands 42,944 8.9 years Belgium 39,694 8.1 years Germany 39,668 8.8 years France 35,714 8.1 years Turkey 16,758 6.5 years Morocco 6,419 4.6 years Pakistan 4,22 3.7 years Immigrants with less years of education, are at a severe disadvantage in the labor market compared to their native peers. Children from these families also have a disadvantage when entering the school system In trying to overcome the hurdles for newcomers, the common approach has been emphasizing the need for inclusion, giving the newcomers the feeling that they are welcome, and that there is interest in their background; and also that their otherness is accepted in terms of religion and the rituals that are related. The importance of educationIt is a common conviction that education is a very important means to make sure that children can integrate and participate in society. However, the socio- economical disadvantaged position of the immigrant families means that they frequently must live in poor city areas, with schools where teachers struggle to teach a majority of children coming from also disadvantaged families. The problem is that the teachers are mostly good-willing, but the facilities to give extra attention to children are not always there. This might lead to unwanted situations.In a July 2015 interview in de Volkskrant, a Dutch quality newspaper, the director of such a school, admitted that “Schools in poor areas fail”. He explained: It is in the interest of society to give these children extra attention: “Look at the attacks on Charlie Hebdo this year. If we want to prevent that these things will happen in the Netherlands, we have to offer children in these areas perspective. That can be done with good education.” Good education implies also creating the feeling among newcomers that they are welcome, and that they get the respect everybody deserves. In other words: education is a necessary step for social inclusion and social cohesion Social inclusion, social exclusion and social cohesion and the role of educationA few definitions: (8)A socially inclusive society is defined as one where all people feel valued, their differences are respected, and their basic needs are met, so that they can live in dignity. Social exclusion is the process of being shut out from the social, economic, political and cultural systems that contribute to the integration of a person into the community (9) Social cohesion is a related concept that parallels that of social integration in many respects. A socially cohesive society is one where all groups have a sense of belonging, participation, inclusion, recognition and legitimacy. Such societies are not necessarily demographically homogenous. Rather, by respecting diversity, they harness the potential residing in their societal diversity (in terms of ideas, opinions, skills, etc.). Therefore, they are less prone to slip into destructive patterns of tension and conflict when different interests collide. If things go well schools play an important role in creating social inclusion and social cohesion. Because this is not always happening we will explore some of the difficulties, making use of empirical research done in host countries like the USA, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, France, Germany and the NetherlandsA insightful article in the American Sociological Review in 2008 (9) sums up the findings of the writers: “The first important statement is that the educational level of immigrants is not the same in all “host” countries. Encouragement by traditional immigration countries (USA, New Zealand and Australia) of selecting highly skilled migrants makes a real difference. Immigrants in such countries are on average better educated and more skilled than comparable migrants in countries without such selection policies. A result is that in these traditional immigration countries, non- immigrants hold a more favorable view towards immigrants’ contribution to the economy. With the immigrants’ long-term viability in mind, legislators have passed national and state policy measures to reform the educational response to the needs of immigrant children. Second: compared with adult immigrants from more economically developed countries, adult immigrants from developing countries, on average, have less human capital and more trouble both using their origin human capital and acquiring new human capital in their host countries. Third: Highly selected immigrants also exert more pressure on their children to reach high levels of educational attainment and they provide their children with more human capital to do so. Fourth: assimilation can take place into different segments of society, all of which provide different cultural identities for assimilation. Only immigrant children who assimilate into the communities that have positive evaluations of the returns on schooling, have a chance at upward mobility Fifth: discrimination, geographic concentration of immigrant populations, and economic vulnerability mark the path toward assimilation into the lower strata of society. Sixth: the extent of social distance between natives and immigrant groups depends on the extent to which immigrants are similar to natives in terms of cultural, physical, and socio-economic traits Seventh: adults from immigrant communities with more socioeconomic capital relative to the native population are less likely to be regarded with prejudice by natives” Education and performance In all the OECD countries there have been clear improvements in primary schooling outcomes over recent years for young students with non-Western immigrant backgrounds. On average though they only perform around the level of the least advantaged native students. Accordingly, at age 12 students with non-Western immigrant background are overrepresented among those pursuing vocational studies. Esteem and respect in primary education Less advantaged socio-economic background and not speaking the native language at home are major educational challenges for immigrant students.Integration into the primary school system is, as a result, complicated.Research shows that, as a result of the lower cognitive and language skills, non-Western minority children may be less accepted and embraced by their peers in the classroom during the early years of elementary school. This lower social status and level of belonging appears to have a strong influence on problem behavior among non-Western minority children. According to teachers and members of the peer group, migrant children show more aggressive and anti social behavior and are more subject to bullying.(10) Several reports have shown moreover that that non-Western youth from minorities face great hindrance later integrating in society, mainly due to their substantially longer period of unemployment, after establishing proper qualifications. This indicates that non-Western minority youth may not only experience a lower social status during elementary school, but also during adolescence. Their increased sensitivity for social exclusion and desire for a sense of belonging may make them more likely to affiliate with non-mainstream groups, e.g. same-ethnicity peer groups that share an identity based on their societal position. Adaptive strategy development. A Norwegian scholar, Jon Elstar, explains a mechanism for better understanding this identity formation. This is the adaptation of ambitions to maintain self respect (11). As an example: the fox from the fable of Aesop. “Driven by hunger, a fox tries to reap some nice grapes hanging high on the vine but the grapes are out of reach, although he leaped as high as he could. Disappointed, he goes away. To accommodate his self respect in a positive way, the fox says ‘Oh, the grapes aren’t even ripe anyhow. I don’t need any sour grapes.'” On the positive side one could argue this is a healthy pragmatic solution to impossible challenges. On the negative side it is creating an easy alibi to position negative choices in a positive way. This adaptive strategy can take different shapes. What the shapes have in common is that it makes the minority groups less vulnerable to the esteem of the majority culture. The esteem issue is neutralized and even turned around by claiming: our criteria are superior to yours. This attitude satisfies the need for “respect”, a frequently used word in this context. The respect they claim is the result of saying that they are not interested in the esteem ranking of the dominant culture. They have a different, not-related ranking for esteem. This is called “Not acting white” in the USA, among Afro Americans with a low socio-economic background. They create identity by claiming not to be interested in academic subjects, schooling, a career, reading, etc., because those are considered to be the criteria of the mainstream group, the Caucasians. Two adaptive strategies are most common: 1. Conforming to the ranking of respect by the street culture, that is: muscles, tattoos, times in prison, possession of weapons. 2. Affiliation to (sometimes extreme) religious groups. In “de Volkskrant” aDutch newspaper (12) a conclusion was summarized from research into the behavior of radicalized young people in the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands. The research was trying to explain: “how does a teenager turn into a skinhead, a left radical, an animal rights extremist or a Muslim fundamentalist. The answer they found was: “It’s not so much that difficult family ties or bad socio economic circumstances are explaining this, but rather it’s about a derailed search for your own identity.” This new identity is attractive because it satisfies the need for respect; and they get extra attention right away, because they are seen by many mainstream people as threatening. This creates a real challenge for the dominant culture, because: a. Religious statements are difficult to refute, because the dominant culture members derive their own identity from democratic values like freedom of religion and freedom of speech. b. These majority cultures themselves are mostly “post modern” in their own development i.e. they believe that there are no criteria for disclaiming the truth or validity of religious statements and assumptions. c. In their own value system, they accept the separation of state and religion. They believe in the “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” This means that they believe in rights and obligations of individuals, regardless of color, race , gender, sexual preference or ethnicity and do not accept religious dogmas as the sole indicator for values and norms. Religion, collectivism and identityAs stated before, religion as such is not the cause for the worldwide conflicts in, for instance, the Middle East. The Islam and the Christian belief systems are both Abrahamic, monotheistic religions sharing a whole range of personalities in their holy books. The conflicts are really about in-group loyalty and behavior versus out-groups. In collectivist cultures people are supposed to be loyal to- and in harmony with- the thinking and the interest of their own in- group (tribe, ethnic group, region, clan, religious group) and in return the in-group will take care of them. What you do to outsiders is different. In this way it can be explained that Sunnites are killing Shiites and vice-versa. The different in-groups have a long memory about wrongdoing from rival groups. While facilitating workshops for people of the peace-keeping forces in the former Yugoslavia, I heard the following “joke”: A Croat says to a Serb: “Why are you killing our children and raping our women?” Says the Serb: “but you people did the same to us. You killed our children and raped our women!” “But that was 80 years ago,” the Croat says. “Might be, but I only heard about it yesterday,” was the response. The step from extremism to terrorism 1. Morality and empathyFrans de Waal, a Dutch ethologist,(13)found in his research that even primates like Chimpanzees, Bonobo and even Elephants are able to show empathy, defined as: “the ability to understand and to share the feelings of others.” So it is safe to say that, in general, humans everywhere share this ability. This is important because this is enabling us to enjoy music, books, paintings and dance, from areas that are very remote from where we live and where we were raised. Recent psychological research found “mirror neurons” in our brains, resonating if something is happening to others. Scientists have shown that the same brain regions light up when you watch such things happening to someone else as when you experience them or imagine them happening to you. Why is it then that, sometimes, terrible things are done to others? The obvious examples are the holocaust and, more recently, the beheadings carried out by the Islamic State. The sad thing is that recent research has shown that our empathy is dampened or constrained when it comes to people of different races, nationalities or creeds. A body of recent research shows that empathy is a choice that we make; about whether to extend ourselves to others. The “limits” to our empathy are merely apparent, and can change, sometimes drastically, depending on what we want to feel. Emile Bruneau, a cognitive neuroscientist, looked into the question: “Why is empathizing across groups so much more difficult?” (14) Bruneau remarks that the lighting up of mirror neurons is not empathy “It’s what you do with that information that determines whether it’s empathy or not. A psychopath might demonstrate the same neural flashes in response to the same painful images, but experience glee instead of distress.” Elements that influence that choice have been studied. Some of the most interesting conclusions are that the choice to empathize with others is negatively influenced by the perception of the role you have and the influence of the esteem for experts. Bruneau summarizes some empirical findings that can create in his words an “empathy gap” The way the mind mutes the empathy signal and stops the ability to put yourself in the position of the “enemy” – Outsider positionidentification with people whom we perceive as outsiders is difficult. This is especially true when those outsiders form an entire community. It is one thing to see the photo of a dead refugee child on the beach. It’s another thing to empathize with all Libyans to try to escape the miserable conditions inside their home country. Joseph Stalin already said: “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.” – Group identityHow much of our ability to empathize is influenced by identification with the group we want to belong to. This is by all means a very relevant issue. Even looking at the infamous fights between soccer fans from rival teams. In my home country, the Netherlands, people were killed in organized fights between supporters of teams from Rotterdam and Amsterdam about100 km apart. Bruneau cites an experience as a volunteer at a summer camp for Catholic and Protestant boys in Belfast. In an effort to build friendships between the two groups 250 children between the ages of 6 and 14 to be bunk together for three weeks, At first he thought things were going pretty well. Some Protestant boys built what seemed like genuine friendships with some Catholic boys. But on the last day of the program a fight broke out between two participants that quickly devolved into a full-scale, 250-child brawl: Catholics against Protestants An analyses showed that it correlated with was the strength of a person’s group identity “The more an individual’s team affiliation resonated for them, the less empathy they were likely to express for members of the rival team,” he says. “Even in this contrived setting, something as inconsequential as a computer game was enough to generate a measurable gap.” This finding creates an serious problem for policy makers. It seems so self-evident to bring people together to build trust and empathy.. Bruneau says: ” But it turns out a lot of those common-sense approaches can be way off-base.’ It seems that: “Increasing empathy might be great at improving pro-social behavior among individuals, but if a program succeeded in boosting an individual’s empathy for his or her own group, (..) it might actually increase hostility toward the enemy”. – Relevance of a group or individual.Stronger activity of the mirror neurons might correlate with how relevant a certain group is to us and not what we feel for them. In a 2012 study, Bruneau showed that Arabs and Israelis showed equal amounts of neural activity when they read articles about their own group’s suffering as when they read about the other group’s suffering. But when they read about the suffering of South Americans – a group with whom they were not in direct conflict the brain activity was muted. As far as the brain is concerned, he says, the opposite of love might not be hate, but indifference. – Following orders of a superior or expertThe Stanley Milgram experiment on obedience to authority figures showed the willingness of study participants to obey an authority figure instructing them to perform acts conflicting with their personal conscience. (15) – The context of our perceived role– The Stanford prison experiment (SPE) was a study of psychological effects of subjects playing a prisoner or prison guard. The experiment was conducted at Stanford University on August 14-20, 1971, by a team of researchers led by professor Philip Zimbardo. The guards and prisoners adapted to their roles more than Zimbardo expected, stepping beyond predicted boundaries, leading to dangerous and psychologically damaging situations. One-third of the guards were judged to have exhibited “genuine sadistic tendencies”, while many prisoners were emotionally traumatized; five of them had to be removed from the experiment early. The conclusion of the experiment favors “situational” attribution of behavior rather than “dispositional” attribution (a result caused by internal characteristics). In other words, it seemed that the situation, rather than their individual personalities, caused the participants’ behavior. (16) From extremism to terrorismTo explain large scale violence three factors are important:1. a long-going grudge where one of the parties feels humiliated by the other; and 2. “de-individualization” or depersonalization. The other side has no individual face but needs to be seen as collectively guilty for the humiliation. This is happening in some Muslim communities. More and more there is talking, writings and preaching about the Muslim humiliation by the Christians, going back to the time of the Crusades. The ISIS fighters refer to the Western World as the “Crusaders”, and in this way they create an enemy without individual faces. In this way they develop a pretext for terrorism. 3. DehumanizationThis is the denial of “humanness” to other people. (18) In general it can take three “faces”: – animalistic dehumanization: comparing certain human beings to non-human animals. “Police are pigs” It is used to prevent one from showing compassion towards stigmatized groups. -mechanistic dehumanization, in which human attributes are removed, and the person is perceived to be unfeeling, cold, passive, rigid, and lacking individuality. -creating “the enemy” a person can be dehumanized is by perceiving the other person as being the enemy. “The enemy is constructed to exemplify manipulation and is described as being opportunistic, evil, immoral, and motivated by greed. The enemy is shown to take advantage of the weak, which in turn justifies any action taken against the enemy” “Dehumanization may be carried out by a social institution such as a state, school, family or religious group. State-organized dehumanization has historically been directed against perceived political, racial, ethnic, national, or religious minority groups Dehumanization can lead to exclusion, violence, and support for violence against others. Likewise, making statements such as “terrorists are just scum”, is also an act of dehumanization.” The other side: How to explain terrorism from the side of members of the endogenous population towards immigrants Globalization versus the need for emotional securityTerrorism can also happen as an outcome of emotional unease because of the visible consequences of immigration. Culture can be compared with an onion with different layers. Values are of course invisible. Freedom of religion and freedom of speech are part of the values of Western countries with the restricted rule of law, giving minority groups the same rights. The expression of these rights, for instance head-scarf’s and places worship like Mosques is however highly visible. This can be experienced by people from receiving countries as de-rooting and loss of identity. If people have been used throughout their lives to the symbols, heroes and rituals of their own culture, it creates also emotional safety. Emotional safety is one of the basic layers of the Maslow pyramid. Only if this need is fulfilled individuals can be open for other experiences. Rapid changes are frequently making people feel unsafe. Unsafe feelings might lead to “cramped” reactions. Leading to de-humanization of newcomers. Right wing groups are using this by calling male newcomers dangerous “testosterone bombs” and “rapists”. Consequence can be that all the above mentioned reasons for terrorism might occur. Violent reactions acts like the Breivik killings in Norway and the attacks on refugee camps in Sweden and German are examples. But there is another element that is creating confusion and emotional stress. It is about misunderstandings about the deepest layer of culture “values” Some highly profiled politicians, writers and philosophers are convinced that globalization is changing national values and that it is old-fashioned to believe that country values are stable and create deeply rooted diverse mindsets. This idea is refuted by the before -mentioned recent repeat of Hofstede’s research published in June 2015 by Beugelsdijk et al. They showed that, in spite of global developments, the Hofstede findings are still consistent over time and valid. This means that “national values” should be taken seriously into account, when talking about the consequences of immigration. The Hofstede findings are defined by comparing the values of nation-states. For some “globalists” this is an old-fashioned idea and even unacceptable.. Even stronger, some of them are saying that referring to culture is tantamount to apartheid on a global scale. And apartheid is racism and fascism in one encompassing word. Hans Magnus Enzensberger used the train compartment as a metaphor for the nation-state. Some people are already sitting in the compartment. Then the door opens and others are entering {stepping in}. The ones who were already there feel annoyed by the newcomers. They are disturbing the peace and are taking available room. You know, of course, that your feelings are “not right.” They have just as much right for a chair as you have.Martin Sommer, a Dutch journalist, says: “the nation-state as something you purchase a ticket for and nothing else?No history, no shared destiny, no obligations? I don’t think so. ” (18) He adds:“Using the train compartment metaphor it is clear that some globalists are seeing this as the European identity. That is to say: no identity. The European identity is about human rights, across borders, post colonial, post Auschwitz. That’s why Europe cannot have real borders; because borders mean exclusion”. As a result, a polarization is growing between the emotions of people on the “grass roots” level in the different nation-states in Europe, and the “rational” opinions of the globalists who believe that it is “stupid” to be afraid. It is clear that one can see uneasiness in the discussion about refugees and immigrants. It is politically incorrect to say that national values are different and can lead to frictions. This amounts to an ideological confrontation of values. Mass immigration and consequencesThe recent influx of immigrants into European countries demands another discussion about the consequences for nation-states with an established welfare system based on solidarity among the members of those nation-states. In general, the majority of the different receiving countries are moderately positive about the need to do something for people who lost everything and fled from the war in their own countries. Still, every day on news media it can be seen that some individuals and groups are violently against getting these refugees to stay in camps in their neighborhood. Already now it can be seen that some people are scaremongering, de- individualizing and dehumanizing immigrant groups. Words like “testosterone bombs” and “rapists” are used for young men, to make people afraid. The media have a special role to play here, to explain reality and give facts.This should not take the shape of a naïve and overly positive approach. It should be clear that there are some real worries for the citizens of the receiving countries. For instance: the problems of housing and priorities for waiting lists. Also legitimate questions are raised about the financial consequences of all this. To avoid “Babylonic” discussions leading to unwanted polarization, it is necessary to separate two kinds of arguments: – The ethical arguments. The discussion about the need to help refugees escaping from dangerous areas and needing shelter to protect their families. In this argumentation it is about “Putting our own people first, versus treating refugees like you would want to be treated yourself.” What do we mean by “fair and just”? – A consequential analysesWhat are the consequences of accepting thousands of refugees? Different perspectives should be discussed in an open way: what are the consequences for them? And for us? What are the consequences for the taxpayers? For the labor force? For the social security system? For education? For security? The two discussions will amount to an ideological and political confrontation. On one hand we have the focus on equality, giving everybody the same rights. On the other hand is the fact that the social security systems are based on solidarity. This solidarity is developed and sustained by people living and working within the borders of the nation state. That took a long time to develop. It should be evident that this solidarity implies frontiers. The Dutch former finance minister Wouter Bos says:“This is not only theory. Big migration can cause a problem for the solidarity in the welfare state.Most of us will not support diminishing the level of solidarity in our type of society. But this is, according to economists, the consequence we will face, if we don’t take measures against the flow of refugees.”(18) Ideas to take into consideration: 1. An active policy is required to aim for the social inclusion of immigrantsElements of such a policy must be:-Recognize the cultural uniqueness of the different cultural groups involved;– Value the importance of the different layers of culture for the identity of thecultural groups and pay explicit attention to it: beliefs, symbols, heroes,rituals, languages, accents, and social conduct;-Value cooperation and bridge-building with community leaders and otherorganizations working within the community;-Value word-of-mouth and interpersonal communication to spread your message. 2. Be aware of the possibilities and limits of integration. People cannot take off their opinions and values like you take off your clothes. Policy implementers should be pro-active in observing and coaching if beliefs and convictions collide, such as the separation of state and religion; or equal treatment of men and women; and the tolerance for different sexual preferences. 3. We have to be acutely aware of the difference between values and norms. Whereas values may be different, but the norms must be common to all; and they are anchored in the constitution and in the law. This makes clear what behavior is accepted and what behavior is forbidden and not sanctioned. 4. We have to develop, quite quickly, some clear examples and case studies concerning seemingly contradictory elements of our societies, such as freedom of speech versus insult and hate speech. We must clarify aspects such as on one hand tolerance and on the other hand social conduct like shaking hands between men and women, and rituals like standing up in a courtroom when the judge is entering the room; between on one hand accepting religious prescriptions like having a long beard for men, and on the other hand observing explicit safety measures in a prison; between on one hand wearing cloth that covers one’s face and on the other hand the need to be able to identify a person. 5. We have to pay much more attention to the needs of non-Western children at the moment they enter the school system. Extra attention, manpower and money are required to prevent (self) exclusion. 6. We have to pay close attention to the collectivist side of the non-Western immigrants and to the potential conflict between ethnical and religious factions like Shiites and Sunnites. These conflicts are sometimes imported. 7. We have to be aware that many immigrant groups are not feeling solidarity to each other. 8. Research by Putnam found that in multi-ethnic city quarters trust in each other is frequently very low. Recent research in a culture like the Dutch is questioning that. So may be a cultural factor has an impact here. 9. Speaking the language is a necessity for communication. Efforts should be increased to enable immigrants to take language lessons. Sanctions should be considered if people drop out. 10. Work is a powerful tool for inclusion. Policies should forcefully fight discrimination in the labor market. 11. Active policies should be in place to prevent de-individualization and de-humanization. Everywhere, but most especially in schools, it should not be allowed that whole ethnic or religious groups are referred to in negative language. Teachers should be trained to be able to stop this and ask the students to look at the dangerous potential consequences. 12. Immigrants frequently ask: “you tell me that we have to adapt to the new culture, but explain to me then what that actually means.” Most often the answer is very superficial, because most people have difficulties to describe the key elements of their own culture. What they see around them is perceived as “normal”. As the saying goes “Fish are the last ones to define water.” It is in this sense that Queen Maxima was describing the Dutch culture as: “you get one cookie with your cup of tea.” What is needed is a better understanding of the basic dimensions of culture and what that means for all the different mindsets involved. This will benefit both the immigrants and ourselves, as we become more aware of our respective identities and seek a form of living together that is mutually respectful and beneficial. Notes1- Geert Hofstede: Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions and Organizations Across Nations, 2nd Edition. 596 pages. Thousand Oaks CA: Sage Publications, 2001, hardcover, ISBN 0-8039-7323-3; 2003, paperback, ISBN 0-8039-7324-1.2. Nation-state: Nation: people sharing a certain territory and having a shared national consciousness who in principle accept the authority, legitimacy and power of their political administration (= state)3- Beugelsdijk, S., Maseland, R. and van Hoorn, A. (2015), Are Scores on Hofstede’s Dimensions of National Culture Stable over Time? A Cohort Analysis. Global Strategy Journal, 5: 223-240. doi: 10.1002/gsj.10984.-The Clash of Civilizations? Essay Summer 1993 Issue United StatesPolitics & Society By Samuel P. Huntington5. Article 24 of the declaration states: “All the rights and freedoms stipulated in this Declaration are subject to the Islamic Sharia.” Article 19 also says: “There shall be no crime or punishment except as provided for in the Sharia.”6- The Educational Performance of Children of Immigrants in Sixteen OECD Countries. J. Donkers and M de Heus- Dossier Migrantengezin – Invloed van migratie, Nederlands Jeugdinstituut.html7–OECD (2014),Education at a Glance 2014: OECD Indicators,OECD Publishing.http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2014-enISBN 978-92-64-21132-2 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-21505-4 (PDF8- see Wikipedia and Social Inclusion: Profiles”. SocialInclusion.gov.au. Commonwealth of Australia. Retrieved 11 March 20119- Immigrant Children’s Educational Achievement in Western Countries: Origin, Destination, and Community Effects on Mathematical Performance Mark Levels, Jaap Dronkers, Gerbert Kraaykamp . Radboud University, Nijmegen, European University Institute, San Domenico di Fiesole. American Sociological Review, 2008, vol.73 (October: 835-853)10-Psychosocial and Educational Adjustment of Ethnic Minority Elementary School Children in the Netherlands.Author(s): Ftitache, B.Link location: http://hdl.handle.net/1871/52607 Year: 2015-04-2011- The Cement of Society: A Study of Social Order by Jon Elster311 ges, $49.50 (hardcover), $16.95 (paperback) published by Cambridge University Press– Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences by Jon Elster 184 pages, $10.95 (paperback) published by Cambridge University Press– Solomonic Judgments: Studies in the Limitations of Rationality by Jon Elster 232 pages, $37.50 hardcover), $13.95 (paperback) published by Cambridge University Press12-De Volkskrant 13-10-201513- Frans de Waal, Ted talk14- as cited in: The Brain’s Empathy Gap. Can mapping neural pathways help us make friends with our enemies? By JENEEN INTERLANDI MARCH 19, 2015 New York Times15-Milgram first described this in 1963 in an article published in the Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology . Later he analyzed it in depth in his 1974 book, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View16- Haney, C., Banks, W. C., & Zimbardo, P. G. (1973). “Study of prisoners and guards in a simulated prison”, Naval Research Reviews, 9, 1-17. Washington, DC: Office of Naval Research.17-Psychwiki.com/Dehumanization18-Martin Sommer. Volkskrant 15-08-201519-Dom interview over belangrijk themaWouter Bos in De Volkskrant 15/10/15 The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Miloval and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show April 2016 Aging featuringSteve Hill, Major Mouse Testing Project, UKElena Milova, Major Mouse Testing Project, RussiaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Vanquishing ageing is obviously an eternal hot topic but only in recent years has it been demonstrated that interventions can have a significant impact. But what is the chemical basis for all this and what chemicals might offer the most precise intervention? Our understanding is at an early stage. Some ideas are coalescing, such as clearing out defunct cells that refuse to die (senolytics), but in general we need much more data. The Major Mouse Testing Program has been set up to accelerate things by, essentially, using a lot of mice. The program is also unusual in that it uses crowd funding, not a traditional way of supporting scientific research but intriguing. And surely this is a topic that will appeal to the crowds. The Middle East and North Africa: A 30-minute whirlwind tour ByJames M. Dorsey, Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Lecture at the Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy, 3 March 2016 No free lunches What the dramatic and bloody developments in the Middle East and North Africa demonstrate is that there are no free lunches. These developments are the product of short sighted policies of on the one hand major players in the international community – the United States, the former Soviet Union and currently Russia as well as Europe and China – and on the other hand of primarily dictatorial regimes or a minority of democratically elected governments like Israel who see merit in exploiting opportunity that allows them to avoid healing festering wounds. The popular revolts that swept the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 toppling leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, sparked the civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen, Saudi military interventions in Bahrain and Yemen, and the rise of jihadism with today the Islamic States at its epicentre, were a response to decades of autocratic, arbitrary rule that failed to produce in national, economic and social terms. That autocratic rule benefitted from the support of the international community. The West saw autocracy as a guarantee for stability while countries like the Soviet Union at the time, Russia today and China never really adhered to values of democratic change. Many have commented that the revolts demonstrated that the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict despite Arab and Muslim claims to the contrary was not at the core of problems in the Middle East and North Africa. They point to the fact that the conflict did not figure prominently in the events of 2011 and has not been key to developments since. That is true. The fallacy is that the conflict never was at the core of regional issues. Israel-Palestine figures less prominently in the developments because it no longer can serve autocrats as a lightning rod that distracts from the real domestic and regional issues. It did however serve to aggravate problems. The lightning rod backfired. Arab military and political incompetence coupled with divisions among Palestinians and Israeli intransigence ultimately served to undermine the legitimacy of autocrats who failed to perform on what a vast majority in the Middle East and North Africa saw as an issue of national importance and pride and fundamental justice. All of this summarily explains why the Middle East and North Africa is in transition. It positions the events of recent years as a rejection of corrupt and failed autocratic rule. What it doesn’t explain is why the transition has taken such a violent turn and produced brutal and ruthless forces that range from the Islamic State to the regimes of Bashar al Assad in Syria and the Al Sauds in Saudi Arabia that are willing to pursue their goals and remain in power at whatever human, social, economic and political cost. Middle Eastern and North African exceptionalism The uprisings of 2011 caught government officials, journalists and analysts across the globe by surprise. They were until then enamoured by what became known as Arab exceptionalism, the apparent ability of Arab autocrats to buck the global trend towards democracy. Arab leaders appeared to be immune to popular aspirations and able to maintain their grip on power with no credible forces able to challenge them. That myth was shattered in 2011. That is not to say that Arab exceptionalism is a fallacy. It isn’t. However, what it represents is something very different from what officials and pundits thought it meant. The nature of Arab exceptionalism becomes evident in the exploration of the answer to the question why political transition was relatively successful in Southeast Asia with the popular revolts in the Philippines and Indonesia and military-led political change in Myanmar and why it is so messy and bloody in the Middle East and North Africa. The answer in my mind lies in four factors – the military, civil society, management of religious and ethnic conflict, and the role of regional powers. In a whirlwind, what this means is that Southeast Asia had militaries, at least parts of which saw change as serving their interest. No Arab military with the exception of Tunisia took that view. Despite repression, Southeast Asia was able to develop some degree of robust civil society, the Middle East and North Africa by and large hasn’t. Southeast Asia has seen its share of ethnic and religious conflict but has often been able to negotiate an end to those disputes. The Lebanese civil war being the exception, the Middle East and North Africa has seen such conflicts as a zero sum game. And finally Southeast Asia is lucky not to have a Saudi Arabia, a counterrevolutionary forced with the temporary wherewithal to stymie change at whatever cost. A decade of defiance and dissent All of this means that there is increasingly little space to push for change. Regimes respond with violence to demands of change. Don’t’ forget that revolts like those in Libya, Bahrain and Syria started as peaceful mass anti-government protests that were confronted brutally. Libya sparked foreign intervention to prevent a bloodbath, Saudi Arabia and the Bahraini regime turned Bahrain into sectarian strife and the regime of Bashar al Assad is willing to fight a horrendous civil war to retain power. All of this takes place in a decade of defiance and dissent. Across the globe, people have lost confidence in the system and their leaders. Donald Trump is an expression of that. The last time this happened was in the 1960s. The difference between then and now is that then there were all kinds of worldviews on offer: anti-authoritarianism. Anarchism, socialism, communism and in the Middle East and North Africa, Arab nationalism and Arab socialism. Today, the only thing on offer are radical interpretations of Islam. Human rights activist and former Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki asked in a recent Wall Street Journal interview why Tunisia had educated people with jobs joining IS. His answer was: “It’s not the matter of tackling socioeconomic roots. You have to go deeper and understand that these guys have a dream—and we don’t. We had a dream—our dream was called the Arab Spring. And our dream is now turning into a nightmare. But the young people need a dream, and the only dream available to them now is the caliphate.” What this means is that identifying the root causes of political violence demands self-inspection on the part of governments and societies across the globe. It is those governments and societies that are both part of the problem and part of the solution. It is those governments and societies that are at the root of loss of confidence. Further troubling the waters is the rise of a public and private anti-terrorism industry that sees human rights as second to ensuring security and safety; has a vested interest in couching the problem in terms of law enforcement and counter-terrorism rather than notions of alienation, marginalization, socio-economic disenfranchisement, youth aspirations and rights; is abetted by autocratic Middle Eastern and North African regimes that define any form of dissent as terrorism; and is supported by a public opinion that buys into support of autocrats and some degree of curtailing of rights as a trade-off for security. Tackling root causes Analysts and policymakers have identified a range of causes for the breakdown of the traditional order in the Middle East and North Africa, ranging from a desire for greater freedom and social justice to the fragility of post-colonial regional states as a result of autocratic failure to engage in nation rather than regime building that gave rise to ethnic, tribal and sectarian strife, to inherent flaws in colonial border arrangements at the time of the demise of the Ottoman Empire such as the Sykes-Picot Agreement and the Treaty of Sevres. All of those notions contain kernels of truth but they have contributed to it becoming common place to pay lip service to the need to tackle root causes of the crisis in the Middle East and North Africa as well as of political violence, and that can mean almost anything. Translating the need to tackle root causes into policy is proving difficult, primarily because it is based on a truth that has far-reaching consequences for every member of the international community no matter how close or far they are from IS’s current borders. It involves governments putting their money where their mouth is and changing long-standing, ingrained policies at home that marginalize, exclude, stereotype and stigmatize significant segments of society; emphasize security at the expense of freedoms that encourage healthy debate; and in more autocratic states that are abetted by the West, Russia and China reduce citizens to obedient subjects through harsh repression and adaptations of religious belief to suit the interests of rulers. The result is a vicious circle: government policies often clash with the state or regime’s professed values. As a result, dividing lines sharpen as already marginalized, disenfranchised or discriminated segments of society see the contradiction between policies and values as hypocritical and re-confirmation of the basis of their discontent. Western nations, for example, in the fall of 2015, deferred to Saudi Arabia’s objections to an investigation by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) into human rights violations by all sides during the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen in which thousands of civilians were killed. Media reports documented, a day prior to the Western cave-in, a British pledge to support Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s foremost violators of basic human rights and purveyors of sectarianism, in the Council. The kingdom, at the same time, objected to references to gay rights in the United Nations’ newly formulated Sustainable Development Goals. Inclusiveness is the answer Creating a policy framework that is conducive to an environment in the Middle East and North Africa that would favour pluralism and respect of human rights and counter the appeal of jihadism and emerging sectarian-based nationalism is not simply a question of encouraging and supporting voices in the region, first and foremost those of youth, or of revisiting assumptions of Western foreign policies and definitions of national security. It involves fostering inclusive national identities that are capable of accommodating ethnic, sectarian and tribal sub-identities as legitimate and fully accepted sub-identities in Middle Eastern and North Africa, as well as in Western countries, and changing domestic policies towards minorities, refugees and migrants. In the case of the international community’s effort to defeat IS, inclusiveness means, for example, that victory has to be secured as much in Raqqa and Mosul, IS’s Syrian and Iraqi capitals, as in the dismal banlieues, run-down, primarily minority-populated, suburbs of French cities that furnish the group with its largest contingent of European foreign fighters; in the popular neighbourhoods in Tunisia that account for the single largest group of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq; in Riyadh, seat of a government whose citizens account for the second largest number of foreign fighters and whose well-funded, decades-long effort to propagate a puritan, intolerant, interpretation of Islam has been a far more important feeding ground for jihadist thinking than the writings of militant Islamist thinkers like Sayyid Qutb; and in Western capitals with Washington in the lead who view retrograde, repressive regimes like those of Saudi Arabia and Egypt as part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Focussing on root causes that are at the core of both the crisis and deteriorating, if not total disrespect of, human rights, means broadening scholarly and policy debate to concentrate not only on what amounts to applying Band-Aids that fail to halt the festering of open wounds but also to question assumptions made by the various schools of thought on how to solve the problem. The facts on the ground have already convincingly contradicted the notion that Western support of autocracy and military interventions primarily through air campaigns despite paying lip service to ideals of democracy and human rights could counter common enemies like IS. It has so far produced only limited results. Respect for human rights has, in many Middle Eastern and North African nations, significantly deteriorated since the 2011 popular revolts while IS is largely standing its ground more than a year into a US-led air campaign, a Russian bombing operation that began in the fall of 2015, and ground campaigns by the Iraqi government and the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The group continues to advocate a regime that celebrates its rejection of pluralism and human rights and metes out relatively transparent yet brutal justice, and it poses a fundamental threat to the existence of post-colonial nation states as the world knew them, first and foremost Syria and Iraq, but ultimately also others like Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Libya. Defeat is not the solution Yet, even a convincing defeat of IS would not solve the problem or promote notions of pluralism and respect of human rights. Al Qaeda was degraded, to use the language of the Obama administration. In the process, it weakened a jihadist force that, despite having no appreciation for concepts of pluralism and human rights, increasingly advocated a gradual approach to the establishment of its harsh interpretation of Islamic law in a bid to ensure public support. Instead of reducing the threat of political violence, the largely military effort to defeat Al Qaeda produced ever more virulent forms of jihadism as embodied by IS. It may be hard to imagine anything more brutal than IS, but it is a fair assumption that defeating IS without tackling root causes would only lead to something that is even more violent and more vicious. Nonetheless, defining repressive, autocratic rule and IS as the greatest threat to regional stability and security and the furthering of more liberal notions is problematic. In the case of IS, that definition elevates jihadism – the violent establishment of Pan-Islamic rule based on narrow interpretations of Islamic law and scripture — to the status of a root cause rather than a symptom and expression of a greater and more complex problem. It is an approach that focuses on the immediate nature of the threat and ways to neutralize it rather than on what sparked it. It also neglects the fact that the ideological debate in the Muslim world is to a large extent dominated by schools of thought that do not advocate more open, liberal and pluralistic interpretations of Islam. That is where one real challenge lies. It is a challenge first and foremost to Muslims, but also to an international community that would give more liberal Muslim voices significant credibility if it put its money where its mouth is. Support for self-serving regimes and their religious supporters, as in the case of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, reduces the international community’s choices to one between bad and worse, rather than to a palate of policy options that take a stab at rooting out the problem and its underlying causes. A wake-up call To be sure, change and progress towards the embrace of pluralism and universal human rights will have to originate from within Middle Eastern and North African nations. Saudi and UAE efforts to target political Islam as such that have also resonated in the West, were articulated by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Blair argued against “a deep desire to separate the political ideology represented by groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood from the actions of extremists including acts of terrorism.” He acknowledged that it was “laudable” to distinguish “between those who violate the law and those we simply disagree with” but warned that “if we’re not careful, they also blind us to the fact that the ideology itself is nonetheless dangerous and corrosive; and cannot and should not be treated as a conventional political debate between two opposing views of how society […]
Content Reinventing Leadership Development by George Por The Future Now Show with John Nosta and Katie Aquino Wisdom of the Crowd or Wisdom of a Few? by Ricardo Baeza-Yates. Yahoo! Labs. Barcelona, Spainand Diego Saez-Trumper. Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Barcelona, Spain A Harvard Mad Scientist Invented Ice Cream That Has Skin News about the Future: Artificial muscle / Freight Farms Mathematics and sex Recommended Book: Daemon by Daniel Suarez Futurist Portrait: Thornton May Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with John Nosta, Digital Health Philosopher and Katie Aquino about Digital Health! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Reinventing Leadership Development George Pór is an evolutionary thinker, Teal mentor, and advisor to culture change and system transition in organisations. Gallup research shows that, worldwide, only 13% of employees are engaged in their jobs. The statistic is shocking and means more than three-quarters of employees are wasting their time, energy, and their organisation’s resources. How can we mobilize the creativity and collective intelligence in our organisations to turn this around? For a challenge this massive, we need more than yesterday’s mindsets and leadership development approaches. The crisis of employee engagement, like any of our global crises, cannot be solved by today’s dominant modes of thinking. “The next cycle is the one of an integral, holistic consciousness that enables the integration of the inner and outer technologies and sciences, deep intuition and systems thinking, spirituality and precision of inquiry.”[1] We need to develop competences in each. The sooner the better. Think of it as scaling a mountain. As we ascend, we leave useless, old stuff beside the path, stuff that burdens and blinkers us. The climb is worth it, though. When we get to the top, we gain an eagle-eye perspective. We now enjoy a broader view. We see realities that were previously hidden from us. And we see how everything is interconnected. As our insight deepens, so does our compassion and inner coherence. As we scale the mountain, we renew ourselves personally and professionally, and step more fully into our potential. Looking back, we wonder how we ever believed in the myth of controlling people, predicting the future, or escaping the consequences of an unhealthy life. And we know that we couldn’t have made this journey alone. Not this quickly and not this smoothly. Our sherpa guides or mentors have been here before. They know how to guide us through the shortcuts and rocky terrain. That’s because they have honed the capacity to sense, think, and relate from a more expansive sense of self. They also help us unlearn unproductive habits and drop them beside the path. As a mentor who guides leaders in next-stage organisations, I can share with you a few things I have learned so far. Some of it comes from the three breakthroughs that Frederic Laloux discovered while researching and writing his book. Their implications are far-reaching, practical, and powerful. Not only can we reinvent our organisations, but also ourselves, and the way we develop as leaders. Let’s look into how. Evolutionary Purpose You may be tempted to start by wondering where your organisation could evolve to next or how it could reach its creative potential. However, that is step two. Step one is discovering that breakthrough in your own self. This is not about deciding what you’ll be when you grow up. And it’s not about pushing forward with your head or will. To get clarity about your evolutionary purpose, it is best to bypass the analytical mind for a little while. Instead, ask the question “who is the world inviting you to be, in service of creating a future that we all want?” and listen to the answer that comes from your heart. Or ask simply where are your deepest talents and highest aspirations meeting a need in your world, one that you feel passionately called to address. Take time to re-read either of those questions that speak to you. Sit with it for a moment. Even better, move away from the computer, take your question to a quiet corner or take it for a walk. Turn your attention to your breath. Know that there is a creative impulse within you, and it wants to manifest through you. But it can only reveal its secret when you become silent or still enough to hear its whisper. A more psychological way to access your inner wisdom is to access your intuition and ask: what kind of work gives me the greatest joy? What is the need/tension in my world that is crying loudest for my help? Where the answers to those questions dovetail, that’s where you will find your evolutionary purpose. At least, for now. I ask myself these questions at least once a year, on my birthday, keeping them fresh, vibrant and dynamic. I use them as a North Star on my journey. Self-Management Leading by example is par for the course in self-managed organisations. As Laloux says, “an organisation cannot evolve beyond its leadership’s stage of development.” This makes your personal development more than personal. You need to embody the qualities you want to inspire in others. And you need to operate from a deeper knowledge of both yourself and the work environment than what is required in a traditional workplace. This involves gaining a high level of knowledge about your organisation’s operating conditions and the various roles and accountabilities that dovetail with yours. Only then can you use your creative potential to the fullest and contribute to the whole. It gets personal. As a leader, your self-management includes the capacity to recognize your needs, values, and moods, and the skills to manage the latter. That calls for moment-to-moment awareness of what is arising from within, as well as the tensions and opportunities for individual action arising from the workplace. Only then can you, as an individual along with groups of individuals, develop skills and practices that allow everyone to work together harmoniously under any conditions, even in the most challenging situations. Developing quiet-mind muscles, in addition to the active-mind muscles you already have, is crucial. This involves stilling yourself enough to gather information through mindful attention, sensing, and feeling. This is about being present, receptive, and simply being. You can try this right now. As you read the rest of this blog, simultaneously keep some of your attention on your breath. It is as if you are attending the words in one hand, and your breath in the other, and you are aware of both. This is not an easy practice because the mind tends to jump to either the sentence or the breath instead of remaining alert to both. With practice, you can become better at it. Try this the next time you talk with someone. Pay attention to your breath or heartbeat while fully absorbing what you hear from the other person. Notice how this changes the quality of your presence. Quiet-mind skills include self-reflection, sense-making, and perspective-taking. They help you nurture the unfolding leadership qualities in yourself and in each member of the organisation. I sense another blog about them in the making… Wholeness Imagine dropping your professional mask and bringing the whole of who you are to work. This is what happens in next-stage organisations. You are free to show up in an authentic way without hiding your vulnerability. You are in touch with your emotions and able to express even the so-called “negative” ones, without harming others. Like you, they value genuine relationships and have no need to to play “games” or to “play nice.” Another aspect of wholeness is about developing a portfolio of the roles you energize, both personally and professionally. Which of your talents come out to play in each role? How do your roles strengthen each other? Which of your roles can generate the larges ripple effects on others’ roles, and then impact the whole. In this way you learn to optimize your contribution and impact on the whole organisation. This also applies to the totality of your lifework roles, which I illustrated here. So, reinventing leadership development has to also address the ways in which you, as a leader, can optimise the investment of your attention/energy in multiple contexts. These are some of the wholeness competencies you may want to develop: conflict resolution; intuition; imagination; generative listening; celebrating accomplishments; and managing the distribution of your energy across a portfolio of your roles. Most important is caring for the wellbeing of all aspects of your diversity, and aligning these parts functionally into a working whole. If you want to go deeper in the individual dimension of wholeness, read the blog of my colleague Celine McKeown “What does Wholeness mean in the context of Teal Organising?”. Wholeness, at the focus of reinventing leadership development, provides an invitation to pay conscious attention to making every decision from the biggest context that can put your arms around. I.e., one that is personally meaningful to you. For some leaders, it will be the well-being of the organisation’s members and other stakeholders. For others it may be the evolutionary purpose of the enterprise. Yet for others it will be evolution itself. It’s all good, really. But attention training will be needed till attending to the largest whole becomes your second nature. If you are an intentional learner, and wish to accelerate your evolutionary journey, here are some tips: 1. Read the Reinventing Organizations book, watch the video, and browse the wiki.2. Join a meet-up group or a community of practice or an online network, focused on next-stage, or self-managing, or Teal organisations, under any other name, and explore with them how to discover next “next stage” in one’s own life.3. Subscribe to and get involved with Enlivening Edge, the online magazine of next-stage organisations. This approach to reinventing leadership development is not for everyone, but it can be introduced on top of more traditional leadership development effort, especially for those who want to move beyond what it offers. Your highest-leverage action to build capacity for organisational reinvention is to become a “next-stage” mentor. Evolutionary mentoring, as introduced here, is foundational to reinventing leadership development, and it is always cross-mentoring that transforms both the mentor and the mentee. That’s why it’s one of my greatest joys. Along with my colleague Jackie Thoms, I will be offering a workshop during the Integral European Conference May 4-8, on how to mentor leaders of “next-stage,” or what Laloux calls, “Teal” organisations. This is work in progress, evolving through the generative conversations with our clients and colleagues. If you want to join the conversation, please comment or ask your questions below. We, at Future Considerations, are working with our clients to help accelerate their journey to the next level of potential. Our Teal mentoring service is an emergent process that starts with a free, in-depth, generative interview. The communication channels we use include: face-to-face meetings, video calls, email, and a dedicated private collaboration spaces. For more details, please get in contact George Pór is an evolutionary thinker, Teal mentor, and advisor to culture change and system transition in organisations. He is a Fellow of Future Considerations and founder of “Enlivening Edge: News from Next-Stage Organizations” and the Teal Practice Group (London). George is the publisher of the Blog of Collective Intelligence, and an independent scholar. His former academic posts included INSEAD, London School of Economics and UC Berkeley. The Future Now Show with Chris Dancy and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show May 2016 Digital Health featuringJohn Nosta, Digital Health Philosopher, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text In an age where biometric devices have become a popular consumer item, where you can go online and get your genome analysed (23andMe), where gene therapy is promising to treat everything from genetic disorders to cancer and where we are mastering the ability to precisely target specific genes for control or editing (CRISPR being the latest buzz technology), how are these myriad developments going to change the way our health is managed? Or the extent to which we can manage it? Add AI into the mix and the possibilities can be dizzying, if not sometimes a little scary. Wisdom of the Crowd or Wisdom of a Few? Ricardo Baeza-Yates. Yahoo! Labs. Barcelona, SpainandDiego Saez-Trumper. Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Barcelona, Spain An Analysis of Users’ Content Generation ABSTRACTIn this paper we analyze how user generated content (UGC) is created, challenging the well known wisdom of crowds concept. Although it is known that user activity in most settings follow a power law, that is, few people do a lot, while most do nothing, there are few studies that characterize well this activity. In our analysis of datasets from two different social networks, Facebook and Twitter, we find that a small percentage of active users and much less of all users represent 50% of the UGC. We also analyze the dynamic behavior of the generation of this content to find that the set of most active users is quite stable in time. Moreover, we study the social graph, finding that those active users are highly connected among them. This implies that most of the wisdom comes from a few users, challenging the independence assumption needed to have a wisdom of crowds. We also address the content that is never seen by any people, which we call digital desert, that challenges the assumption that the content of every person should be taken in account in a collective decision. We also compare our results with Wikipedia data and we address the quality of UGC content using an Amazon dataset. At the end our results are not surprising, as the Web is a reflection of our own society, where economical or political power also is in the hands of minorities. Categories and Subject DescriptorsH.2.8 [Database Management]: Database applicationsData mining;; J.4 [Computer Applications]: Social and Behavioral Sciences General TermsHuman factors, measurement. KeywordsSocial networks; user generated content; wisdom of crowds. 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INTRODUCTIONThe wisdom of crowds is a well known concept of how “large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant, they are better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, and even predicting the future” [20]. On the other hand, although all people that use Internet can contribute to web content (or any type of activity), most people do not. In fact, in any social network, the set of people that just looks at the activity of others (passive users or digital voyeurs) is much larger than the people that is active. Similarly, among the active users most of them do little, while a few do a lot (digital exhibitionists). We are interested in the characterization and interplay of these groups of people regarding the generation of content. Let us take a specific case, say the world of blogs in the Web. Most people do not have a blog and few people have good blogs. Conversely, most blogs are not read and few blogs are well read. Indeed, people contribute to content in a social network or in the Web because they have the (possibly wrong) perception that someone will look at and read their contribution. This perception that they are speaking to the whole world, when the truth is that most of the time they are speaking alone, creates a very long tail of content that nobody sees, a huge digital desert where people write to an empty audience, metaphorically speaking. Although we believe that there is a high correlation between the quality of content and the activity of users interacting with that content, in this paper we explore this process: how people contributes to content and what is the impact of the content generation process in the so called wisdom of crowds. As we cannot study this in the context of the whole Web, as most usage data is private, we use two different datasets: a small sample of New Orleans Facebook users and a large one coming from a micro-blogging platform, Twitter. Both are good case studies for the problem being tackled. In fact, today Facebook and Twitter are the two largest social networks in term of users. In one of these cases we estimate a weak lower bound of how much of the UGC produced is never seen. We also compare the content generation process in these social networks to the content generation of Wikipedia as well as the estimations of unique users per month that visit that website. Moreover, using another UGC dataset from Amazon’s movies reviews, where the quality of content it is explicitly rated, we study the relation between quantity and quality of content produced by people, finding also that the majority of high-quality content is generated by a small set of users Our main results are: • The percentage of users that generate more than 50% of the content is small, less than 7% in our two examples;• These top users are quite stable in time, more than 70% of the initial people in our two examples stay on that group during all the time observed;• The quality of content it is not strongly correlated with amount of users’ activity, but;• Given that quality of content it is (almost) equality distributed among users, more active users produces in absolute numbers – more high quality content than less active users.• The number of users that do not contribute to the generation of content is the majority of them, some because of inaction while thers because their content is not taken in account;• There is a significant volume of content that nobody sees, and hence is not taken in consideration; and• The bias seems to be even worse in non social contexts such as content creation in Wikipedia, where there are also is higher amount of content that is never visited. The reminder of this paper is organized as follows. Sections 2 and 3 give the background. Sections 4 to 6 present the experimental results and discuss them 2. RELATED WORKThe concept of the wisdom of crowds was introduced by Francis Galton in 1907 [6], and used by James Surowiecki in his seminal book “The Wisdom of Crowds” [20], where he posits – among other things – that the aggregated knowledge of a group would be bigger than the knowledge of any of its single components. Although wisdom is difficult to measure, on the Web this concept has been translated – and widely applied – as using the data provided directly (e.g., content) or indirectly (e.g., clicks) by users to discover knowledge in a crowd sourcing approach [14, 9, 5, 8]. A good example of how this wisdom can be used, is exploiting the clicks that users do after issuing a query in a web search engine. This allows to extract semantic relations between queries in an automatic manner [1, 2, 3]. Therefore, in this example and others, more user generated content implies more knowledge that can be potentially discovered. In Online Social Networks, wisdom can be related to the amount of content produced by users. Previous studies suggests that the amount of user’s activity (e.g., number of tweets) it is related with her/his number of followers [19], and also with the monetary value that they produce [18]. Similarly, in social graphs – where node in-degree has a power-law distribution [10, 13, 11, 7] – most of the content produced (i.e., activity) is generated by a small subset of users, while the majority of users act as passive information consumers [16]. Moreover, previous studies have shown that the around 50% of URLs consumed in Twitter are produced by a tiny portion of users (less than 1%) [22]. However, while previous work shows that to have a lot of followers cannot be considered as synonym of influence [4], nowadays we do not know enough about most active users. In this paper we try to understand the importance and characteristics of most active users regarding the generation of content. 3. EXPERIMENTAL FRAMEWORK 3.1 Assumptions and Definitions We consider that each unit of activity (tweets or posts) is one unit of content and that the overall activity is proportional to the wisdom of the crowd. A possible variation is to consider the length of the text of the tweet or the post. Nevertheless, as these texts are small (e.g. tweet length is capped by 140 characters), the results should be similar. Later on this paper, we discuss about the content’s quality, and how it relates with the concept of wisdom. To distinguish top contributors (wise users or digital exhibitionists) from the rest of the active users, we use the following arbitrary definition for a given time period: wise users are the set of most-active users such that they contribute with 50% of the content (or half of the wisdom). Other definitions are possible, for example based in a larger percentage, but we consider that 50% is already a majority of the content. Nevertheless, the results would be similar as all the distributions involved resemble power laws. We call the rest of the users, in fact, the majority of them, others. 3.2 Datasets We use two different datasets from two different kind of social networks: Twitter, a micro-blogging social network; and Facebook, a pure social network. For all the experiments we consider only the active users, meaning users that have shown some posting activity in the time period considered. Facebook: This dataset corresponds to the New Orleans Facebook’s Regional Network (Regional Networks were deprecated by Facebook in August of 2009). [21]. We have two lists: the first one contains the social graph (friendships) and a second list with user-to-user wall posts (where u,v means user v posting in u’s wall), and the timestamp. All these data hasbeen anonymized. The social graph has 1,545,686 edges between 63,731 users. The information about wall posts has 876,993 actions, with 39,986 users doing at least one post (active users). Hence, we can estimate that at least 37% of users are passive or inactive. Notice that these are users that have a public profile, so although the set is partial, is what can be compared to other datasets based on public data as the next one. This dataset has wall posts from 14th of September 2004 to 22th January of 2009 according to Table 1. We use the last three years as the two first are too small. The Pearson correlation of the number of posts with respect to the number of friends, using a logarithmic transformation to linearize the distributions, is 0.64. That is, the distributions are partially correlated. The distribution of posts versus users follows a power law of parameter -1.58. Twitter: Our dataset contains almost all the tweets done in Twitter between March 1st until May 31st of 2009. We also have the complete social graph of Twitter for that period. This information is a subset of the dataset obtained in [4]. Specifically, tweets are represented as a list of pairs (user id,timestamp), and the social graph is an adjacency list. The social graph has 1,963 of edges between 42 million of users (688 million edges between 12 millions of active users). The activity considers 440 million of tweets produced by the active users. In fact, the number of nonactive users (71%) is more than 2.4 times larger than the number of active users (29%). Hence, our analysis would be more striking if we take percentages over the whole user population. Our Twitter data has two limitations: (i) we have “only” the last 3,200 tweets from each user, but we have found only 167 of users with more tweets than this threshold in around 50 millions users; 2( In any case, this implies that our results are a good lower bound because we are trimming the most active users ) and (ii) from the social graph, we cannot establish when each edge was created, therefore we are working with the final snapshot of that graph. In order to study the UCG with different time granularity, in our experiments we use this dataset in two different ways: first, the full dataset split in months and next, a smaller sample where we split in weeks the first three weeks of May. Tables 2 and 3 gives the details of them. The distribution of tweets versus users can be approximated by a power law of parameter -2.1. On the other hand, the Pearson correlation of the number of tweets with respect to the number of followers, using again the logarithmic transformation, is 0.68. That is, the distributions are again partially correlated. 4. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 4.1 Wise and Others We start by finding the proportional sizes of the user groups defined in the previous section. Figure 1 shows that the distribution of user activity is very skewed. For Twitter – Figure 1 (right) – where we have more data points, we show that the distribution also depends on the time window considered, as a longer time window implies that a smaller group of users produced most of the content. For three years, we found that in the Facebook dataset, the wise users were just 7.0% of the total. On the other hand, in a period of three months, we found that in the Twitter dataset the wise users accounted for just 2.4% of them. In the case of the Twitter dataset, looking at the social graph we found that even though wise users are less than 3%, they concentrate more than the 35% of the incoming edges, therefore they have also a higher in-degree (see Table 4). On the other hand, in the Facebook dataset, 7% of the users concentrate 21% of the links. This is not surprising as the Facebook social graph is more sparse as friendship is bidirectional and both users have to accept the relation. To measure the connectivity of each group, we use the Gamma index, that is the ratio between the links observed over all possible links in the complete graph of active users [15]. A larger Gamma Index means higher connectivity into the graph. In Twitter we see that wise are the most cohesive group. In Facebook the differences are even bigger, as wise users are five orders of magnitude more cohesive than the rest. Differences between Twitter and Facebook might be due to the different nature of the link creation process in each platform (in Facebook both parts needs to agree to create a link, while in Twitter each user can decide alone) and the type of graph. However, in both cases wise users are more cohesive than the rest, suggesting that they are a highly connected elite. We can partially compare these results to the content generation process ofWikipedia. Indeed, according to data published by Wikipedia itself, the top 10,000 editors produce 33% of the content editions. Considering that there arealmost 20.8 million registered editors, the top editors represent just 0.04% of them. As the number of passive users, that is, people that use Wikipedia but do not contribute with content, is more than one billion, the percentage of active editors with respect to the total number of users is negligible. Something similar happens with the creation of the almost 4.5 million Wikipedia articles in English, where the 2,005 most prolific authors account for the creation of 50% of the articles [17]. This is less than 0.01% of registered editors, and this number would be even smaller if non-registered users could be taken into account. 4.2 Evolution Along Time Now we find the percentage of wise users for different periods of time for both datasets. Results are detailed in Tables 5 and 6. This shows that even though the percentage of wise users decreases with larger time windows, the absolute number is pretty stable. However, are those wise users always the same? Table 7 shows the percentage of users that were in the wise group in the first year and stay there in the next two years for the Facebook dataset. Table 8 shows the percentage of users that were in the wise group in the first week and stay there during the next two weeks for the small Twitter dataset. As can be seen the wise users are very stable, as more than 70% or 80% remains after three years or weeks, respectively. In Figure 2 we show the dynamics of the wise and others groups, during three years or months for both datasets, showing the percentage of people that come from the groups in the previous month as well as the percentage of new users. The numbers displayed in the edges, represents the percentage of users going to a given group in previous/next time slot. Outgoing edges pointing to previous time slot (e.g. from month 2 to month 1) shows where the users come from, while edges pointing to the next time slot shows the destiny of those users. For example, in Figure 2 (b), in month 2, 66% of wise users come from the wise group in month 1, 27% from others and, 7% from new users (users that were not active in month 1). Next, 92% of those wise users, stay in the wise group in month 3, and 8% went to others. Another way to understand this, would be look at symmetric edges. For example, in month 3, 1% of the new users went to wise group, while 4% percent of the total of wise users come from new users. Overall, we can see that groups are quite stable if we do not consider new users. In fact, at the end of three periods, most of the wise users have always been in this group, for example in Figure 2 (a), 74% of wise users stay in that group from year 1 to year 2, and then 98% stay in that group from year 2 to year 3, confirming the stability of this group. 4.3 The Digital Desert In this section we analyze the phenomena of the content that is uploaded for some users, but is never seen by anyone else. We refer to this content as the digital desert. We can estimate a lower bound for the content that is never seen for the case of the Twitter dataset. (For the Facebook Dataset we cannot estimate the size of the digital desert because was obtained through a snowball sampling) In fact, a lower bound for the digital desert can be computed as the percentage of content generated by people that has no followers. (Potentially, content uploaded by users without followers can be reached through the search page of Twitter or a generic search engine. However, tweets posted by users without followers are unlikely to be top-ranked in any search results.) This percentage of people is only 0.06% for the wise group but 20.58% for the others group. This accounts for 0.03% and 1.08% of the whole content, respectively. Hence, the digital dessert in this dataset is at least 1.11%. Although small, this implies that the opinion of some people is not really considered and hence is not part of the collective wisdom. The size of the digital desert increases if we look at another kind of UGC platform such as Wikipedia. Comparing the logs of requested pages in the English Wikipedia during a month (June 2014) (https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-raw/) with the new content added in the previous month (May 2014) we see that from the 1,350,554 articles edited/added during that month, 31% of them were not visited (These visits include humans and bots.) in June. This is an upper bound for the digital desert in this dataset and time period. 5. QUALITY OF THE WISDOM In previous sections we have used an arbitrary definition of wisdom that is directly related with the amount of content produced by users. However, one can argue that quantity of content produced (i.e., activity) does not imply equal contribution to the global wisdom. To address this problem we need to measure the quality of content. Unfortunately, it is not simply to measure content quality in a social network, because it would be difficult to define what is a “good tweet” or a “good post” in Facebook. One option is to relate quality with popularity (e.g., retweets or likes), but such metric would be clearly biased towards popular users. Therefore,it is preferable to use a dataset where the quality of users’ contributions it is clearly ranked by the readers. A good example of such kind of content are Amazon’s products reviews, where readers can evaluate the helpfulness of a review by answering yes or no to the following question: “Was this review helpful to you?” Specifically, we use a public Amazon’s movie reviews dataset released by [12] in 2013. This dataset contains almost 8 million reviews, from 889,176 users, of around 250K different movies, in a p erio d of 15 years (from 1997 to 2012). From each review we have – among other things – the (anonymized) author, the content, and also a field called “helpfulness”, that contains the numb er of readers that have rated the review as helpful or not. In order to make this data comparable with the previous experiments, first we divided users in wise and others, following the definition given in Section 3.1 that based in the amount of activity (previously numb er of p ost or tweets, now numb er of reviews). In this case we found that 4% of users pro duced 50% of all reviews. This is similar to Facebook (7%) and Twitter (2%), suggesting that the pro cess of content generation is comparable with the previous cases. For future comparison we denote this group of users as activitybased-wise. Next, we want to redefine wisdom by adding the dimension of content’s quality. To do that, we say that users are contributing to the wisdom only if each review has been rated as helpful by at least one reader. The intuition behind this definition is that if a review help ed at least one user, the review is a contribution to the total wisdom. Obviously, stronger requirements can b e imp osed (e.g., that at least 50% of the users rating a review found it useful). However, our definition will establish a lower bound for the content’s value. Hence, now the total wisdom will be the sum of all helpful reviews. Surprisingly, we found that 64% of the reviews were helpful for at least one reader, and 66% of users have produced at least one helpful review, showing that a wide group of users contribute to the total good content and that almost two thirds of the whole wisdom generated is valuable. However, breaking down the results we found that – again – just 2.5% of the users produced 50% of the total helpful reviews. We denote these users as quality-basedwise. Moreover, we found that quality-based-wise users is a proper subset of the activity-based-wise users in this dataset. We also compute the (review) entropy for each user. To that aim, we grouped the reviews of each single user, and then computed the Shannon entropy in that text. Interestingly, we found that the Spearman correlation between activity and entropy is low (0.32), while the correlation between entropy and helpfulness is slightly higher (0.43). Figure 3 shows that from a certain level of users’ entropy the reviews tend to be more useful, but that also there is a saturation point where more entropy does not imply more helpfulness. This relation between entropy and value (helpfulness) is useful to generalize these results because we expect that users that introduce more information per word (i.e., higher text entropy) are – at the same time – adding more wisdom. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK Our results, added to social influences, undermines the independence principle that is needed to have a real wisdom of crowds [20], as the percentage of people that produces most of the content is really small. Moreover, if we consider that very active people is highly connected among them, compared with the rest of users, creating a cohesive elite. The diversity principle is also challenged, as many users do not contribute to the wisdom, either because they do not exercise this option or because their opinion is not taken in account (the digital desert). The distribution of how people contribute to wisdom becomes more skewed when a filter of quality is introduced. Although many people show the capability of producing helpful content, the majority of such content is produced by just asubset of the elite. The datasets used are already a bit old, but on the other hand one of them is complete and less noisy than a more current dataset, as at that time Twitter had less spam than nowadays. For sure the results in other datasets would bedifferent, but we believe the issues addressed in this paper will remain valid for the majority of UCG. Finally, although we would like to believe that the Web is a more democratic environment as all the people has the same opportunities, at the end the Web mimics our society. Indeed, the economic or political power in most countriesbelongs to a minority of the people. Even when explicit decisions must be taken through elections or referendums, many people choose not to exercise their right to vote. REFERENCES[1] R. Baeza-Yates and A. Tiberi. Extracting semantic relations from query logs. In Proceedings of the 13th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 76–85. ACM, 2007.[2] P. Boldi, F. Bonchi, C. Castillo, D. Donato, A. Gionis, and S. Vigna. The query-flow graph: Model and applications. In Proceedings of the 17th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM ’08, pages 609–618, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.[3] H. Cao, D. Jiang, J. Pei, Q. He, Z. Liao, E. Chen, and H. Li. Context-aware query suggestion by mining click-through and session data. In Proceedings of the 14th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 875–883. ACM, 2008.[4] M. Cha, H. Haddadi, F. Benevenuto, and K. Gummadi. Measuring User Influence in Twitter: The Million Follower Fallacy. In Proc. of the 4th Int’l AAAI conf. on Weblogs and Social Media (ICWSM), Washington DC, USA, 2010.[5] A. Fuxman, P. Tsaparas, K. Achan, and R. Agrawal. Using the wisdom of the crowds for keyword generation. In Proceedings of the 17th international conference on World Wide Web, pages 61–70. ACM, 2008.[6] F. Galton. Vox populi (the wisdom of crowds). Nature, 75, 1907.[7] R. Gonzalez, R. Cuevas, R. Motamedi, R. Rejaie, and A. Cuevas. Google+ or google-?: dissecting the evolution of the new osn in its first year. In Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on World Wide Web, pages 483–494. International World Wide Web Conferences Steering Committee, 2013.[8] C. Hsieh, C. Moghbel, J. Fang, and J. Cho. Experts vs the crowd: Examining popular news prediction perfomance on twitter. In Proceedings of ACM KDD conference, Chicago, USA, 2013.[9] A. Kittur and R. E. Kraut. Harnessing the wisdom of crowds in wikipedia: quality through coordination. In Proceedings of the 2008 ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work, pages 37–46. ACM, 2008.[10] H. Kwak, C. Lee, H. Park, and S. Moon. What is twitter, a social network or a news media? In Proc.of Int’l conf. on World wide web, WWW’10, pages 591–600, NY, USA, 2010. ACM.[11] G. Magno, G. Comarela, D. Saez-Trumper, M. Cha, and V. Almeida. New kid on the block: Exploring the google+ social graph. In Proceedings of the 2012 ACM conference on Internet measurement conference, pages 159–170. ACM, 2012.[12] J. J. McAuley and J. Leskovec. From amateurs to connoisseurs: modeling the evolution of user expertise through online reviews. In Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on World Wide Web, pages 897–908. International World Wide Web Conferences Steering Committee, 2013.[13] A. Mislove, M. Marcon, K. P. Gummadi, P. Druschel, and B. Bhattacharjee. Measurement and Analysis of Online Social Networks. In Proceedings of ACM SIGCOMM Internet Measurement Conference, 2007.[14] M. Pasca. Organizing and searching the world wide web of facts–step two: harnessing the wisdom of the crowds. In Proceedings of the 16th international conference on World Wide Web, pages 101–110. ACM, 2007.[15] C. Ricotta, A. Stanisci, G. Avena, and C. Blasi. Quantifying the network connectivity of landscape mosaics: a graph-theoretical approach. Community Ecology, 1(1):89–94, 2000.[16] D. M. Romero, W. Galuba, S. Asur, and B. A. Huberman. Influence and passivity in social media. In Machine learning and knowledge discovery in databases, pages 18–33. Springer, 2011.[17] K. Rutherford. The few who write Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia: Wikipedia_Signpost/2014- 01- 22/Special_report, 2014. [Online; accessed 19-Jun-2014].[18] D. Saez-Trumper, Y. Liu, R. Baeza-Yates, B. Krishnamurthy, and A. Mislove. Beyond cpm and cpc: determining the value of users on osns. In Proceedings of the second edition of the ACM conference on Online social networks, pages 161–168. ACM, 2014.[19] D. Saez-Trumper, D. Nettleton, and R. Baeza-Yates. High correlation between incoming and outgoing activity: a distinctive property of OSNs? In Fifth International AAAI Conference on Weblogs and Social Media,, Barcelona, Spain, 2011.[20] J. Surowiecki. The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations. Random House, 2004.[21] B. Viswanath, A. Mislove, M. Cha, and K. P. Gummadi. On the Evolution of User Interaction in Facebook. In Proceedings of the 2nd ACM SIGCOMM Workshop on Social Networks (WOSN’09), Barcelona, Spain, August 2009.[22] S. Wu, J. M. Hofman, W. A. Mason, and D. J. Watts. Who says what to whom on twitter. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web, pages 705–714. ACM, 2011. A Harvard Mad Scientist Invented Ice Cream That Has Skin In a sleek new restaurant in Cambridge, Massachusetts, David Edwards is trying to change the way we take in nutrition. The professor, writer, entrepreneur and inventor has created a range of food innovations, from a carafe that will turn your scotch into an inhalable cloud to a device to print smells sent from your iPhone. His best known creation is wikicells, an edible skin meant to replace traditional food packaging. Edwards’ biggest problem isn’t creating these alternatives, it’s selling the public on them. (Video by Drew Beebe, David Yim and Alyssa Zahler) News about the Future Artificial muscle Stanford researchers create super stretchy, self-healing material that could lead to artificial muscle Researchers show how jolting this material with an electrical field causes it to twitch or pulse in a muscle-like fashion. This polymer can also stretch to 100 times its original length, and even repair itself if punctured. This new material, in addition to being extraordinarily stretchy, has remarkable self-healing characteristics. Damaged polymers typically require a solvent or heat treatment to restore their properties, but the new material showed a remarkable ability to heal itself at room temperature, even if the damaged pieces are aged for days. Indeed, researchers found that it could self-repair at temperatures as low as negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit (-20 C), or about as cold as a commercial walk-in freezer. Freight Farms Freight Farms is addressing the needs of the world’s changing food landscape by providing physical and digital solutions for creating local produce ecosystems on a global scale. Freight Farms customers are located across North America and range from entrepreneurs and small businesses, to hotels and restaurants, to corporations and educational institutions. By decentralizing the food supply chain and bringing production closer to consumers, Freight Farms is drastically reducing the environmental impact of traditional agriculture and empowering any individual, community or organization to sustainably grow fresh produce year-round, no matter their location, background or climate. Built entirely inside a 40’ x 8’ x 9.5’ shipping container, freight farms are outfitted with all the tools needed for high-volume, consistent harvests. With innovative climate technology and growing equipment, the perfect environment is achievable 365 days a year, regardless of geographic location. Mathematics and sex Mathematics and sex are deeply intertwined. From using mathematics to reveal patterns in our sex lives, to using sex to prime our brain for certain types of problems, to understanding them both in terms of the evolutionary roots of our brain, Dr Clio Cresswell shares her insight into it all. Dr Clio Cresswell is a Senior Lecturer in Mathematics at The University of Sydney researching the evolution of mathematical thought and the role of mathematics in society. Born in England, she spent part of her childhood on a Greek island, and was then schooled in the south of France where she studied Visual Art. At eighteen she simultaneously discovered the joys of Australia and mathematics, following on to win the University Medal and complete a PhD in mathematics at The University of New South Wales. Communicating mathematics is her field and passion. Clio has appeared on panel shows commenting, debating and interviewing; authored book reviews and opinion pieces; joined breakfast radio teams and current affair programs; always there highlighting the mathematical element to our lives. She is author of Mathematics and Sex. Recommended Book: Daemon Daemon by Daniel Suarez Technology controls almost everything in our modern-day world, from remote entry on our cars to access to our homes, from the flight controls of our airplanes to the movements of the entire world economy. Thousands of autonomous computer programs, or daemons, make our networked world possible, running constantly in the background of our lives, trafficking e-mail, transferring money, and monitoring power grids. For the most part, daemons are benign, but the same can’t always be said for the people who design them. Matthew Sobol was a legendary computer game designer — the architect behind half-a-dozen popular online games. His premature death depressed both gamers and his company’s stock price. But Sobol’s fans aren’t the only ones to note his passing. When his obituary is posted online, a previously dormant daemon activates, initiating a chain of events intended to unravel the fabric of our hyper-efficient, interconnected world. With Sobol’s secrets buried along with him, and as new layers of his daemon are unleashed at every turn, it’s up to an unlikely alliance to decipher his intricate plans and wrest the world from the grasp of a nameless, faceless enemy — or learn to live in a society in which we are no longer in control. . Futurist Portrait: Thornton May Thornton May is a futurist, educator and author. His extensive experience researching and consulting on the role and behaviors of “C” level executives in creating value with information technology has won him an unquestioned place on the short list of serious thinkers on this topic. Thornton combines a scholar’s patience for empirical research, a stand-up comic’s capacity for pattern recognition and a second-to-none gift for storytelling to address the information technology management problems facing executives. The editors at eWeek honored Thornton, including him on their list of Top 100 Most Influential People in IT. The editors at Fast Company labeled him ‘one of the top 50 brains in business.’ Thornton has established a reputation for innovation in time-compressed, collaborative problem solving. Thornton designs the curriculum that enables the mental models that allow organizations to outperform competitors, delight customers and extract maximum value from tools and suppliers. He specializes in creating action-based learning spaces for high performance organizations. He ran the multi-client research program at the Nolan Norton Institute, led the Management Lab at Cambridge Technology Partners, co-founded the Olin Innovation Lab, and founded the CIO Institutes at UCLA and UC-Berkeley. He co-manages the CIO Solutions Gallery at THE Ohio State University, co-directs the CIO Practicum program at the University of Kentucky and was the Executive Director and Dean of the IT Leadership Academy at Florida State College at Jacksonville. Thornton serves as Futurist – External Technology Advisory Board at the Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering and is on the Advisory Board of Mobiquity, Inc. Thornton’s research has been acknowledged in such seminal business books as Seth Godin’s Permission Marketing; Michael Schrage’s Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate; Moshe Rubenstein’s The Minding Organization; Bill Jensen’s Simplicity; and Jeff Williams’ Renewable Advantage: Crafting Strategy Through Economic Time. Thornton’s book, The New Know: Innovation Powered by Analytics, analyzes what organizations know, how they come to know and how they act upon what they know/don’t know. Thornton obtained his bachelor’s degree in Asian Studies from Dartmouth College; his master’s degree in Industrial Administration from Carnegie-Mellon University, and developed his Japanese language competence at the Center for Japanese Studies at the University of Michigan and Keio University in Japan. Thornton May – Computerworld: “For the past seven years, I have traveled around the world asking organizations what they know, what they don’t know, what they need to know and how they come to know. Answers in hand, I have set about examining the data in the context of business outcomes and mission accomplishment (in the case of not-for-profit enterprises). I have come to some broad conclusions about the general state of knowing in the world today. A paradox has emerged. Generally, our capacity to know (that is, what is knowable) is expanding exponentially, thanks to technology improvements (for example, affordable sensors and improved and accelerated analytics) and the apparently never-ending emergence of new sharing platforms (Facebook, YouTube, etc.). What we actually know, on the other hand, appears to be advancing linearly — when it advances at all. Thus, I respond to Nick Carr’s question “Is Google Making Us Stupid?” in the negative. I maintain that Google isn’t making us stupid.” Thornton May: Technology Futurist, Author, Educator and Keynote Speaker Agenda 15 Nov 2016morning AmsterdamHow Fashion Meets ImpactA Blue Ocean Investment Strategy for the Global Textile & Garment Industryin cooperation with Impact EconomyLocation: Denim City | Amsterdam, Hannie Dankbaarpassage 47, 1052 RT Amsterdam printable version
T Content Transformation of Food and Agriculture- Part 1 by Patrick Crehan The Future Now Show with Chris Dancy and Katie Aquino PopUp House Robotics in Logistics News about the Future: Hotel Yearbook 2036 – Eyewitness reports from the year 2036 / Shaping the Future of Construction: A Breakthrough in Mindset and Technology Shell Concept Car launched Recommended Book:Consciousness and the Brain: Deciphering How the Brain Codes Our Thoughts Futurist Portrait: Mehmood Khan Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Patrick Crehan‘s series start – topic Food and Agriculture. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Chris Dancy, “the Most Connected Human on Earth” and Katie Aquino about Mindful Cyborg! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Transformation of Food and Agriculture – Part 1 by Patrick Crehan, Crehan, Kusano & Associates sprl, Brussels, Director, Club of Amsterdam TTF2035 Part 1A new report from Ireland explains how technologies will transform food and agriculture between now and 2035Teagasc (pronounced CHA GOSK), the agency that provides research, training and advisory services to the agri-food industry in Ireland, has recently completed a technology foresight exercise entitled Teagasc Technology Foresight 2035. The final report addresses one of the most significant challenges that the sector will face in the coming years. Namely how to achieve the high levels of growth needed to ensure security of food and nutrition, while reducing the impact of the sector on the environment and climate change. Ultimately the ability of the sector to grow over the coming decades, providing high quality jobs and prosperity to those it employs, is increasingly constrained by its ability to reduce waste, green-house gas emissions and more generally its impact on climate and the environment. New technologies are needed that will enable the sector to grow while respecting the environment and help it meet its obligations in terms of climate change. The report identifies new areas for future research that can help the sector achieve these goals. It outlines the immediate steps that Teagasc will take to establish the new activities needed to make it all happen. In terms of technology, the report emphasises the role that a number of imminent technology revolutions could play, as enablers of new systems for the management of production and processing, distribution, retail and consumption. In the case of consumption this means new value added personalised product and service concepts responding to consumer needs in terms of convenience, lifestyle, health and nutrition. These technology revolutions are going on in at least three areas, the first being in genetics and molecular biology. A genetic revolution is being driven in part by advances in obtaining detailed genetic at high-speed and low-cost, along with the phenotypic data needed to understand how genetics in combination with a range of other factors such as environment and nutrition, determine the performance of production systems, their susceptibility to disease and their response to stress. This new and more profound understanding of biological systems at the molecular level genetics is accompanied rapid progress in a large number of new techniques for enhancing the performance of commercially important plants and animals to create new breeds and varieties or to improve the function of existing breeds and varieties in terms of health, production and impact on the environment. The second area of ongoing revolution is in our ability to understand and manage important micro-biota. This refers to the many complex communities of micro-organisms that inhabit human skin, teeth and digestive systems, the rumens of cows, the bacteria, fungi and microscopic worms that inhabit our soils, and the many microscopic organisms that inhabit the spaces in which we live and work. These are too complex and varied to study at the level of individual organisms, but they can now be studied collectively using techniques such as whole biome sequencing. As a result we are beginning to see the essential role they play in general physical and mental health, in the occurrence of allergies and food intolerances, their importance for digestion, their role in food conversion efficiency and green-house gas emissions of farm animals, their role in the nitrogen cycle of soils and in plant nutrition plants. We have only started to understand the importance of these and the essential role they play in healthy biological systems. Over the next 10 to 20 years we expect our understanding to grow to the point where we can really use this knowledge to move agricultural production as well as plant, animal and human nutrition onto a whole new level of performance. These three false-color images demonstrate the application of remote sensing in precision agriculture: The left image shows vegetation density and the middle image presence of water (greens / blue for wet soil and red for dry soil). The right image shows where crops are under stress, as is particularly the case in fields 120 and 119 (indicated by red and yellow pixels). These fields were due to be irrigated the following day. The third main area that is ripe for revolution is in the application of information and communication technology in farming, food production, distribution retail and consumption. Key concepts include big-data, data analytics and automation, applied to the daily routine of farm-work an agricultural production, to decision making concerning key tasks such as breeding, nutrition, animal and plant health, the management of farm enterprises and the production of environmental goods and services. All of this is being enabled by the ease of deployment of systems using networks of robust low-energy or even no-energy, low-cost sensors based on nano-technologies, connected to data bases and decision-support systems connected to each other and to farm via the “Internet of Farm Things” or even the “Internet of Living Things”. The IoLT refers to a system that connects not only man-made machines and devices but animals and nature itself through sensors that continuously and cheaply monitor the health status of animals and their behaviour in terms of consumption, production and readiness for breeding, the health status of plants their yield, nutritional needs and response to stress, as well as the health of the environment and its auditable output in terms of ecological and environmental goods and services. In addition to these three areas of applied technology, the report also describes new and interesting developments in the area of food processing, as well as new systems and services that will steadily integrate the agri-food sector into the circular bio-economy. Altogether the report identifies 5 major areas for technology driven transformation of the sector. We will have a look at each of these in turn in future extensions of this article on the results of Teagasc Technology Foresight 2035. Disclaimer: The author was employed by Teagasc to assist in the development of the Teagasc Technology Foresight 2035 initiative. Nevertheless the views expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the client. The Future Now Show with Chris Dancy and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show June 2016Mindful Cyborg featuringChris Dancy, “the Most Connected Human on Earth”, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text You’ve heard of the internet of things, an omnipresent network of chattering devices sharing data, but how often have you heard that you might be integrated into it, not just tapping into it but constantly sharing with it untold amounts of data about your physical and mental state, what you are doing, who you are interacting with? ‘The world’s most connected man’ here introduces us to the concept of Existence as a Platform, how we might all become vastly more connected with our devices and with other people, and asks us to ponder the impact of this on things such as safety, privacy and even new forms of consciousness. PopUp House A simple concept: Build an entire building (floor, walls, ceiling) by assembling insulation blocks separated by wooden boards. PopUp House is not a homebuilder. We sell our building system comprising assembly instructions and structure materials to the professional who will build your PopUp House. The supply of the materials constituting the structure (EPS, wood, screws) costs between 250€ and 300€ per square meter of floor area (price before tax). We also provide a detailed study of your project to validate its structure. It is charged 1500€. The expert who will work on your PopUp House will buy us the structurel materials and complete them to build a complete house. He will provide you an accurate quotation, including our materials. For a turnkey house in France, the price is generally included between 1,100€ and 1,700€ per square meter of floor area. The foundations, heating and cooling system, carpentry, and finishes panels impact the total cost. (prices for metropolitan France, before tax) A PopUp House building is assembled with screws. Wood framing and insulation blocks are assembled with long wood screws made to measure. The blocks are sandwiched between the boards and tightened by means of through screws. It does not soil the polystyrene and thus allows the building to be completely disassembled and recycled. Robotics in Logistics Source: ROBOTICS IN LOGISTICS A DPDHL perspective on implications and use cases for the logistics industry – March 2016 “Recent developments in robotics might turn out to be a game changer for the logistics industry. Robots now are able to perceive, pick, manipulate, and place a wide variety of objects in less and less structured environments. The technologies we developed proved to be crucial for winning the challenge, and we hope they will enable further advances in logistics and other industrial applications, boosting productivity, reliability, and profitability.” – Prof. Dr. Oliver Brock, Robotics and Biology Laboratory, Technical University of Berlin (…) CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK Every day we interact with products that were built by robots and yet we never think about it. These robots impact our world even though they are hidden away in factories that we never see. We are entering a point in time when robots will become more visible and impact our lives more directly: in our stores, in our offices, and in our homes. And as robots improve and our acceptance of them grows, they will also enter the world of logistics. Interest in the field of robotics is clearly increasing. More funding is pouring into development than ever before from governments, large companies, and venture capitalists. Low-cost sensors and faster computers have made previously impossible challenges more manageable. Engineering students now see true potential for advancement, and are being enticed into this field by exciting jobs in robotics. Studies show that there will be a labor shortage in many developed countries over the course of the next twenty years. This is problematic for e-commerce, which increases the need for labor in warehouses and greatly adds to the number of parcels flowing to consumer homes. Finding enough labor for the logistics industry could become extremely difficult or even impossible. In answer to this, managers are learning the advantages of supplementing workers with collaborative robots, effectively allowing people to do more complex and rewarding tasks while at the same time improving overall productivity. Retailers like Amazon are leading the way, embracing robotics technology by making large investments. Equipment providers see this trend and are designing robots into their logistics systems as the cost of the technology drops and capabilities improve. With these advances, we are seeing first examples of self-contained mobile picking robots as well as robot forklifts entering distribution centers, and initial trials seem positive. There is still a long way to go before robotics technology is ready and major improvements are still required but many of the pieces are now in place to drive progress. It seems clear that it is not a matter of “if” but rather “when” robots will be working in our parcel sorting hubs, distribution centers, and delivery vans. The business leaders of the future need to understand this technology and start planning for the day when it provides a viable solution to ever-growing pressures on the supply chain.The history of robotics includes many stories of hype and disappointment, but if you take a step back you can see steady progress. There is an incredible difference between the robots of the 1960s and those of today. The speed of progress is increasing rapidly with new advancements and breakthroughs happening every day. Our young children can’t picture a world without computers and it is likely that their children will feel the same way about robots. The outlook for robotics is very positive and the world of logistics will benefit from the coming advances in robotics technology. News about the Future Hotel Yearbook 2036 – Eyewitness reports from the year 2036 Since 2007, The Hotel Yearbook has provided thousands of decision makers in the hotel industry with valuable opinions and insights on what may be in store in the year ahead. To celebrate the 10th anniversary of this forward-looking publication, The Hotel Yearbook 2036 breaks completely new ground, taking a giant leap 20 years into the future. Written from the viewpoint of the year 2036, the book presents dozens of ‘eyewitness reports’ from the future: interviews conducted with fictitious hotel industry executives, consultants, experts – and guests – who describe the world of 2036 from their own perspective, and in doing so, illuminate the dramatic changes that hotel companies will confront between 2016 and 2036 Shaping the Future of Construction: A Breakthrough in Mindset and Technologyby the World Economic Forum in collaboration with The Boston Consulting GroupThirty measures are presented in the report, Shaping the Future of Construction: A Breakthrough in Mindset and Technology as part of a construction “industry transformation framework”. The report describes and promotes the effort needed by all stakeholders for the industry to fully realize its potential for change. Shell Concept Car launched It’s a city car that uses a third less energy in its lifetime than a typical city car, designed with the kind of attention to weight reduction and aerodynamics found in Formula One™ racing. This ultra-light prototype’s low-cost, low-carbon construction demonstrates a way to help keep increasingly crowded cities moving, while minimising energy use and emissions. “You could build this car and drive it for around 100,000 kilometres before consuming the same energy it takes to make a typical SUV,” says engineer Bob Mainwaring, Shell’s Technology Manager for Innovation, who is leading the project. By the middle of this century three-quarters of the world’s population is expected to live in cities, while the number of cars on the road could double. Cars powered by electricity, low-carbon biofuels or even hydrogen could play a growing role in road transport of the future. But much more efficient combustion engines using petrol or diesel are needed to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and air pollution in the shorter term. “We wanted to see what kind of an impact we could have if we really pushed the boundaries of what combustion engine cars can do today,” says Mainwaring. F1™ designer Gordon Murray, engine experts Geo Technology and Shell scientists have worked closely together to co-engineer the car’s body, engine and lubricant to minimise fuel use and CO2 emissions. The result is a concept car that uses significantly less energy from its manufacture to the end of its life. Recommended Book: Consciousness and the Brain: Deciphering How the Brain Codes Our Thoughts Consciousness and the Brain: Deciphering How the Brain Codes Our Thoughtsby Stanislas Dehaene How does our brain generate a conscious thought? And why does so much of our knowledge remain unconscious? Thanks to clever psychological and brain-imaging experiments, scientists are closer to cracking this mystery than ever before. In this lively book, Stanislas Dehaene describes the pioneering work his lab and the labs of other cognitive neuroscientists worldwide have accomplished in defining, testing, and explaining the brain events behind a conscious state. We can now pin down the neurons that fire when a person reports becoming aware of a piece of information and understand the crucial role unconscious computations play in how we make decisions. The emerging theory enables a test of consciousness in animals, babies, and those with severe brain injuries. A joyous exploration of the mind and its thrilling complexities, Consciousness and the Brain will excite anyone interested in cutting-edge science and technology and the vast philosophical, personal, and ethical implications of finally quantifying consciousness. Futurist Portrait: Mehmood Khan Mehmood Khan, Vice Chairman and Chief Scientific Officer, Global Research and Development Dr. Khan, M.D., is PepsiCo’s Vice Chairman and Chief Scientific Officer of Global Research and Development. In its global portfolio of food and beverage brands, PepsiCo has 22 different brands that generate more than $1 billion each in estimated annual retail sales. With net revenues of over $63 billion, PepsiCo’s businesses make hundreds of enjoyable foods and beverages that are respected household names around the world. In his role, Dr. Khan oversees the PepsiCo global Performance with Purpose sustainability initiatives, designed to enhance environmental, human and talent sustainability for the company, and he leads PepsiCo’s research and development (R&D) efforts, creating breakthrough innovations in food, beverages and nutrition—as well as delivery, packaging and production technology—to capture competitive advantage and drive PepsiCo’s businesses forward. With a strong emphasis on broadening the company’s portfolio of offerings, Dr. Khan sets the priorities for innovation, discovery and development at PepsiCo. He consistently pushes the envelope by introducing new technologies and innovative solutions across the development and production processes—and even the entire crops spectrum. As Chair of PepsiCo’s Sustainability Council, Dr. Khan oversees and guides PepsiCo’s sustainability initiatives that help: 1) protect and conserve global water supplies (and provide access to safe water); 2) innovate our packaging to minimize our impact on the environment; 3) eliminate solid waste to landfills from our production facilities; 4) reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions across our global businesses; and 5) support sustainable agriculture by expanding best practices with our growers and suppliers. Under Dr. Khan’s stewardship, PepsiCo’s Food For Good (an enterprise within the company that utilizes PepsiCo’s delivery vehicles, warehouse facilities and management skills to make nutrition accessible for low-income families in the U.S.) is making a difference in the fight against hunger. Additionally, Dr. Khan strengthens PepsiCo’s global network, reputation and knowledge base by launching research projects with leading universities and technology companies, as well as by spearheading agricultural and nutrition science initiatives. With Dr. Khan’s leadership, the investments PepsiCo has made in R&D are helping drive the company’s business priorities today and the sustainable growth opportunities of tomorrow. In 2013, PepsiCo had nine of the top 50 new food and beverage products across all measured U.S. retail channels. In the first nine months of 2014, PepsiCo was the #1 contributor to U.S. retail sales growth among the top 30 food and beverage manufacturers. By continuously aligning dynamic consumer tastes and category development opportunities through seamless, integrated research and innovation, the PepsiCo innovation pipeline is stronger than ever. Prior to joining PepsiCo, Dr. Khan was President, Takeda Global Research & Development Center, overseeing Takeda Pharmaceuticals Company’s worldwide R&D efforts. Previously, Dr. Khan was as a faculty member at the Mayo Clinic and Mayo Medical School in Rochester, Minn., serving as Director of the Diabetes, Endocrine and Nutritional Trials Unit in the endocrinology division. He also spent nine years leading programs in diabetes, endocrinology, metabolism and nutrition for the Hennepin County Medical Center in Minneapolis. ”Seven billion people on the planet today, 9 billion by 2050 … We have that opportunity for this massive increase in consumer base. The question is, are we going to be smart enough to anticipate what they need, but also anticipate what it’s going to take to deliver that?” – Mehmood Khan Future Food 2050 – Segment 1 Future Food 2050 – Segment 2 Future Food 2050 – Segment 3 printable version
Content Transformation of Food and Agriculture- Part 2 by Patrick Crehan The Future Now Show with Anina and Katie Aquino Biobased Products Innovation Plant: ‘Innovation for companies’ Partnership with InsightBee News about the Future: What do Europeans do at work? A task-based analysis: European Jobs Monitor 2016 / Foresight Africa: Top Priorities for the Continent in 2016 Why Is Arctic Methane An Emergency? Recommended Book: The Industries of the Future Futurist Portrait: Jose Cordeiro Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Patrick Crehan‘s series about Food and Agriculture – Part 2. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Anina, CEO and founder of 360Fashion Network, China and Katie Aquino about Fashion & Technology We are happy to announce the Partnership with InsightBee – Members of the Club of Amsterdam get unique benefits! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Transformation of Food and Agriculture – Part 2 by Patrick Crehan, Crehan, Kusano & Associates sprl, Brussels, Director, Club of Amsterdam TTF2035 Part 2A new report from Ireland explains how technologies will transform food and agriculture between now and 2035: This article focuses on the role of robotics and the automation of physical tasks in enabling this transformation.See also Teagasc Technology Foresight 2035. The attention of the world has been recently been captured by the rapid progress being made in the development of the autonomous car. Almost all major car companies now have roadmaps for the introduction of autonomous cars, in a progressive fashion that has already started for many companies with driver assist and accidence avoidance features, and is intended to culminate in a not too distant future in cars that require no driver, and which take-over all tasks that required the intervention of licensed human beings. Google in particular has captured the imagination of the public with the introduction of its self driving car projectstarted in 2009 and since then many others have followed. Most people are less aware that self-driving car concepts have a much longer history. One of the pioneers of this domain is John Deere the US based maker of tractors, mowers and farm machinery. John Deere is currently the largest operator in the world of autonomous vehicles and you can see one of its tractors in operation on YouTube. Others include ATC, the Autonomous Tractor Corporation. Vehicles such as these reduce the need for labour, or allow available labour to achieve higher levels of productivity. Note that no one is driving the tractor that is pulling the trailer taking the load of corn. Whereas John Deere and other companies like it target large farms others such as Kubota of Japan target the needs of small farmers, farms on rugged hillsides with irregularly shaped fields or water logged land. It is interesting to browse You Tube videos of Kubota machinery operating in the context of fields typical to places like Thailand. It gives an idea of how different is the challenge in these countries compared to the giant prairies of the American mid-west or the vast expanses of Poland. Kubota intends to embed as much intelligence into their small format relatively low cost machines, as is already to the big clients of John Deere. In this way, technology progress in Asia may provide a “frugal innovation” dividend for European producers. IBEX Automation of the UK has developed a robot for spraying weeds that can navigate and manoeuvre in difficult terrain and on marginal lands. The Lettuce Bot developed by Blue River Technology is designed to thin plants such as lettuce, keeping only those that are likely to provide the best product. Energid has developed an autonomous system for picking citrus fruit. Agrobot of Spain has developed an autonomous system for harvesting strawberries. Wageningen University in the Netherlands has developed an autonomous harvester for picking cucumbers. A team at Harvard University is currently working on an autonomous robotic bee capable of pollinating a field of crops. US based Vision Robotics has developed an autonomous system for removing weeds and pruning vines. Its French competitor Wall-Ye is capable of performing a range of tasks including pruning. Wall-Ye demonstrating its ability to prune vines Kubota proposes another approach to problems such as the pruning of vines. One that is increasingly well known in Asia, but almost unknown in Europe, the use of exoskeletons or wearable robots. Video testimonies from users of its Arm-1 exoskeleton on the website of the Kubota Cyber Farm Machinery Squareillustrates how they are currently being used by a wide range of users including seniors who have to carry out physical work on a farm. This system is not intended for lifting heavy loads. It gives relief to workers who may lack physical strength and resilience such as the aged owners of farms in rural Japan. The testimonies indicate that “you really have to try it to understand the value it can provide.” In Australia autonomous drones and four wheeled robots are being tested for herding cattle and sheep. Farmers in Ireland have been experimenting with this as well. A recent FT article describes how drones lift farming to a higher plane in Bulgaria. It is interesting to note that Japan has employed drones in agriculture, already for the last 3 decades. They are mainly used for spraying and it is estimated that 1 in 3 bowls of rice eaten in Japan have been treated at some stage by aerial drone. Yamaha is the main producer and it has only recently started to go over-seas in its sales efforts. In the US, it recently won an exemption from the FAA to a law banning commercial use of unmanned aerial drones. It intends to market them both in the US and the EU, for use in the production of rice and wine. For now these drone systems require human pilots, but future versions will operate autonomously without the need for adult supervision. As cars and tractors and other machinery act with greater degrees of autonomy, so will drones. With the help of AI and machine learning technologies these systems will respond to problems in real time, based on direct commands, scheduled programs of operation or as part of bigger more complex systems that generate alerts from cameras and sensors dispersed throughout the fields and other places of production. Yamaha drone getting ready to spray vines in Nappa Valley The Danish Meat Research Institute is working on the application of robotics in meat processing. It already claims superior results in the use of robotics to process pork. According to Food Quality News a Scottish abattoir has recently made a breakthrough in theuse of robotics to measure the “eating quality” of meat. Scott of New Zealand is a world leader in the automation of work in abattoirs, in particular in the processing of sheep and lamb and in the execution of complex tasks such as the removal of meat from the bone. Its most recent You Tube video talks of how it aims to develop a system capable of processing a whole lamb carcass in under 12 seconds. Scott is not the only actor in this space and the technology is also applied to the processing of beef. To get an insight into what is being done in Australia it is worth having a look at this report on the Bordertown R+D project. The “twelve second goal” of Scott Technology Nowadays there are other ways of producing meat. Modern Meadows is a US based venture backed start-up that intends to revolutionise agriculture by growing animal cells in test-tubes with a view to producing both meat and leather. Perhaps this has the potential to make a “meat eater” out of the most ardent vegetarian. Rearing sheep is a very important commercial activity. They are reared not only for their meat and milk but also for their wool. They are sheared once a year. In some places, if they don’t get sheared, they are at risk of dying from heatstroke. The job requires a lot of skill as can be seen from this short video of a sheep shearing competition. The fact of having to work with a squirming and often confused live animal results in small nicks to the sheep’s skin. When these happen in the vicinity of an artery close to the surface of the skin, it occasionally results in the death of the sheep. The goal of “good shearing” is therefore to reduce trauma to the animal, maximize the yield of wool by shearing as close to the skin as possible, reduce damage to the skin from accidental cuts, and reduce the loss of live animals. Automation is not only as a way to increase productivity but also a hedge against a possible shortage of people who know how to do it well. Research in Australia was conducted on the application of robotics to shearing as early as about 1978. These efforts were successful in that they resulted in the development of a system that was demonstrably faster, better and safer for the animal. However the system was never adopted. It seems it raised many ethical and cultural issues, in particular in relation to the difficulty of ensuring “0” fatalities with the technology available at that time. The cow is trained to use the robot whenever it feels the urge. She has no need for assistance. Traditionally, one of the most labour intensive activities on a dairy farm has the milking of cows. The installation of a modern milking parlour is also among the biggest investments a dairy farmer will ever make. Nevertheless it remains a labour intensive activity and the ability of a farm to grow is often conditioned by the number of cows a single labourer is able to handle on their own. Research in the automation of milking has been going on for many decades and companies such as Lely, De Laval, Boumatic and Fullwood all provide commercial robotic milking systems. These systems make most sense however only for very large farms and so adoption of robotic solutions in milking has been limited by the relatively small size of farms. This is an area ripe for revolution based on new thinking that will bring the benefits of automation to the majority of farmers, for example to those with as few as 100 cows or even less. Maybe it is time for an open source hardware + open source software approach that will create opportunities for local providers competing on science and technology rather than on hardware. Moving away from the countryside and onto the subject of urban agriculture, it is interesting to note the adoption of robotics in the production of small green vegetables, lettuce, cucumbers tomatoes and small fruit such as strawberries. Sky Greens of Singapore claims to be the world’s first commercial vertical farm. California based Urban Plot claims to be able to grow 16 acres worth of food in a 1/8 acre plot. A joint venture involving an indoor farming company called Mirai and GE of Japan has led to the development of systems that produce up to 10,000 heads of lettuce every day. They claim that lettuce grown in this way has eight-to-ten times more beta-carotene and twice the vitamin C, calcium and magnesium of competing products grown outdoors. Although these systems employ human workers, a Japanese company called SPREAD has developed a fully automated indoor farming system entitled the Vegetable Factory. There are already more than 200 such systems in operation in Japan and in 2017 SPREAD will open its newest and largest facility near Kyoto, intended to produce 10 million heads of lettuce a year. These large scale indoor systems have been developing slowly over the last few decades arguably since the publication of Dixon Despommier visionary work on “The Vertical Farm.“ Vegetables are grown in a “pink houses” so called because of the colour of the LED lights adapted to the biology of the plant On a smaller scale but still outdoors FarmBot is a 100% open source robotic system suited to small scale local food production, suitable for small produces and people with vegetable patches in their garden. Targeting an even smaller scale grower we have companies like Urban Cultivator and Grove Ecosystem developing indoor garden concepts based on aquaponics and LED lighting that grows food indoor at home or at work to deliver fresh food all year round. Retail and logistics will also benefit from robotics and the automation of complex physical tasks. At the Future Food District of the 2015 Food Expo Milan, ABB demonstrated its versatile robotic arm capable of picking and packing fruit such as apples. Finally we come to the role of robotics in consumption both at restaurants and in the home. In 2009 a number of YouTube videos appeared demonstrating the future application of robotics in the kitchen. One of these called FuA Men (short for a “Fully Automated raMen”) was a robotic noodle shop in Nagoya. It is not clear if this shop still exists, but it featured a robotic chef and its robotic assistant. They not only prepared ramen, but talked to customers and performed (rather bad) stand-up comedy. Another demonstration of that time involved a weirdly human looking robot hand that made sushi. Since then a group of MIT students has recently developed the Spyce Kitchen concept as the basis for a new style of fast food restaurant, and UK based Moley Robotics in collaboration with the Shadow Robot Company has developed a very impressive robotic kitchen that can emulate Michelin starred chefs and that has already learned by “observation” more than 2000 recipes. This opens up a whole new dimension in food related intellectual property, as well as a new pricing possibilities for the sale of food service systems. Moley intends to make it available commercially from 2017. The Moley Robotic Kitchen We may be on the verge of a breakthrough where automation will enable in all parts of the agri-food supply chain. Autonomous tractors and the smart tools they deploy can help producers or farmers to achieve higher yields with lower inputs through greater accuracy and a greater ability to optimise aspects of production such as weather or time windows for optimal yield. Automation can help with produces of meat and dairy production, the production of cereals, fruit and vegetables. It can help in picking and packing as well as processing, distribution and retail. It is even pretty good in the kitchen. So much has already been achieved, in the automation of physically complex tasks right across the agri-food supply chain, as if by stealth. Although in many cases the potential of automation has been clearly demonstrated, uptake has been limited until now. For many of these systems issues of affordability, maintenance and reliability may need to be addressed. Perhaps a service oriented approach is the way forward based on new forms of ownership, uberisation or sharing and co-ownership. The coming decade should see waves of innovation not only in the transformation of work via new tools and systems, but in the transformation of business via new organisational and economic models. The Innovation LandscapeResearch in agri-food related science and technology is going on all over the world. The two issues I want to highlight here are the role of innovation related competitions and the role of open source hardware and software, as well as the emergence of platforms to help accelerate development. The FRE or Field Robot Event was founded by University of Wageningen in 2003. It appears to be the longest running such event in the world. The last one took place in Slovenia and the fourteenth such event will take place in Germany on 14-16 of June 2016. Nevertheless other parts of the world are starting their own independent initiatives. The US based ASABE agricultural robotics competition for example started in 2007. Even more recently the Ag Bot Challenge starts in 2016. It encourages teams to design, develop and demonstrate autonomous agricultural machinery that address specific on-farm challenges. The 2016 competition focused on planting seeds. In 2017 it will focus on weed and pest identification and removal. In 2018 the plan is to focus on autonomous harvesting. The gantry-like Farm Bot system Earlier on we mentioned the FarmBot initiative aimed at growers that have access to small outdoor gardens. The MIT Open Ag Initiative is an “open source ecosystem of food technologies to create healthier, more engaging and more inventive food systems.” One of its platform projects is the development of a desk-top Food Computer that can be programmed to grow anything by simulating an approach climate, soil and nutrient conditions. FRoboMind is an open source robot control system that originated in Denmark. It was developed with a view to accelerating progress in the application of robotics in agriculture. It is currently employed in more than 10 field robot projects. It is easy to imagine future initiatives based on synergies between efforts such as these and those who participate in or are inspired by other open source movements such as Hong Kong based OSVehicle which has developed an Open Source platform for electric vehicles, and US based Local Motors which claims to produce the world’s first 3D printed commercial automobile. In this article we focused on the role of robotics and the automation of physical tasks in enabling a transformation of global agri-food systems. In the next one we will discuss the role of ICT, sensor networks and big data in the automation of cognitive tasks and the work of management. Disclaimer: The author was employed by Teagasc to assist in the development of the Teagasc Technology Foresight 2035 initiative. Nevertheless the views expressed in this article remain those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the client. See also: Transformation of Food and Agriculture- Part 1 by Patrick Crehan The Future Now Show with Anina and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Juli / August 2016 Fashion & Technology featuringAnina, CEO and founder of 360Fashion Network, ChinaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Take a successful model with a technological bent and plenty of imagination and clothing starts to come alive. From caring for and helping to guide its wearer to serving as an additional form of expression (through embedded lighting, for example) to reshaping itself on demand, the future of fashion technology is rich with possibilities. Biobased Products Innovation Plant: ‘Innovation for companies’ Source: Wageningen University The Biobased Products Innovation Plant is the breeding ground for successful biobased products such as starch plastics from potato skins and Biofoam from PLA. Join us on a tour of this impressing research facility – part of Wageningen UR Food & Biobased Research – in which applied research for companies has been conducted for more than three decades. The Biobased Products Innovation Plant is located in Axis, the same building on Wageningen Campus that accommodates the applied research institute Food & Biobased Research. Two doors down from the reception we suddenly find ourselves in the impressive R&D facility, which feels and sounds like a real factory. Here you have to speak-up to make yourself heard over all the decibels produced by the equipment, while scientists and technicians, wearing labcoats and safety goggles, are carefully monitoring the various processes. This is where smart ideas for the production of commercially viable products from biomass are tested: from laboratory to pilot scale. Impressive growth Although the production of biobased products such as bioplastics is only a fraction of the production of petrochemical products, its growth is impressive. Moreover, says Paulien Harmsen, scientist at Food & Biobased Research, developments are proceeding accordingly. Harmsen shows us the section of the hall where the fresh biomass arrives, ranging from crops like roadside (switch)grass, miscanthus and wheat straw to agricultural residual products such as sugar beet pulp and palm oil residues. However, also more exotic biomass sources such as seaweed are examined on valuable components. “Before biomass becomes valuable, we need to know what is in it “ – Paulien Harmsen, researcher at Food & Biobased Research Biomass analysis We take the stairs and head into one of the laboratories upstairs. “The advanced equipment here is analysing biomass round-the-clock,” Harmsen explains. “Before biomass becomes valuable, we need to know what is in it. We look for valuable components such as specific sugars, cellulose, lignin, proteins and fats. For analysis purposes it’s best to dry or grind the biomass first. This makes it easier to analyse the valuable components.” Chemical building blocks Several doors down is the (bio)chemical laboratory, where biomass is cracked and refined into main fractions. “After the pre-treatment process, we turn it into chemical building blocks which can be used to make an infinite number of products and materials,” explains Jacco van Haveren, programme manager Biobased Chemicals. “Here we mainly develop chemical building blocks based on sugars and lignin via technologies such as fermentation and biocatalysis. We also use catalysts from the petrochemical industry, which is often faster and cheaper.” Van Haveren estimates that 7% of all chemical building blocks are currently biobased. “Examples include paints based on sunflower oil and wallpaper glue from potato starch.” Alternative for PET bottles Scientist Linda Gootjes demonstrates a reactor that is used to convert galactaric acid (from sugar beet pulp) to furandicarboxylic acid (2.5 FDCA). “Sugar beet pulp was seen as a low-value residual stream that could only be used for animal feed and which had a low nutritional value. But it can also be used as alternative for terephthalate used in PET bottles. Following this route the ‘plant bottle’ of Coca Cola soon can be fully biobased.” Companies such as Cosun and Avantium are aiming to meet these types of demands from the market, according to Christiaan Bolck, programme manager Biobased Materials: “They ask us for our input in their search to bring value to residual streams or in developing alternative (biobased) building blocks. Here, together with industry, we take the first steps towards commercial production. We can produce components on such a scale that we can use them to make polymers and, later, bioplastic products.” Micro-organisms in small tubes Now it’s time to enter the microbiology lab, where scientist and fermentation expert Jeroen Hugenholtz is demonstrating the possibilities for putting minuscule bacteria to good use. “Here for example, we use micro-organisms to produce a component that protects strawberries from rapid spoiling due to fungi. To do this we cultivate a large number of micro-organisms in small tubes and let them multiply. Then we add them to the fungus and observe what happens: does the fungus grow quickly, slowly or not at all? With this information we can develop a biobased alternative for chemical fungicides.” Fibreboard from reed In the natural fibre lab, further down the hall, Christiaan Bolck shows us a unique piece of particle board (MDF), made from reed. “We are helping Natuurmonumenten {a leading Dutch nature conservation organisation}, Compakboard from the UK and Royal DSM to create a biobased MDF board made of reed harvested from areas that are managed by Natuurmonumenten. To realise a genuine sustainable board material, we are working with DSM to develop also a biobased ‘binder’ without toxic compounds. This way we meet the demand from consumers for 100% biobased products with no toxic binders.” “Extrusion and compounding allows us to mix the raw materials properly. Moreover, it expands the applicability of the biobased polymers” – Christiaan Bolck, programme manager Biobased Materials Extrusion A unique characteristic of the Biobased Products Innovation Plant is that the research involves the entire production chain, including the production and testing of prototypes of end products. Bolck shows several extruders, equipment that can make granules from polymers. This is where the step from polymer to product based on starch or poly lactic acid (PLA) is made. “Extrusion and compounding allows us to mix the raw materials properly. Moreover, it expands the applicability of the biobased polymers; for instance by improving their heat resistance or flexibility.” Bolck also shows us a plastic cup, which looks exactly like the polystyrene plastic cups we’ve been using to for decades. “However, this cup smells like caramel when it is set on fire because it’s been made from PLA.” Adjusting all aspects We end our tour at the fermenters, where scientist Truus de Vrije shows us one containing a brown, flaky substance. “Here we convert components from seaweed (processed via biorefinery) into lactic acid using bacteria. Apart from bacteria we may also use fungi, yeasts or micro-algae for bioconversion. The trick is finding the best organism and process settings so that companies can use it profitably. In this facility we can adjust all aspects, such as adding air or nitrogen or making the process anaerobic. We can regulate the acidity (pH) or play with the stirring rate. This way we can discover the optimal conditions for the production of biobased building blocks step by step.” Biobased Products Innovation Plant The Biobased Products Innovation Plant is a large R&D facility used by Food & Biobased Research scientists to develop innovative processes to convert green raw materials (biomass) into biobased products. Our goal is to accelerate the development of the so-called Biobased Economy. Together with industrial partners, governments and other research institutes, we focus on the development of sustainable and economically viable biobased chemicals, materials, fuels and biomass sources for bio-energy. Have a look at our online brochure at www.wageningenur.nl/bpip Partnership with InsightBee Club of Amsterdam partners with InsightBee to offer quality, affordable and quick research services to its members InsightBee is the simple way to source high quality custom research and analytics from any device. From proactive alerts to tailored reports, InsightBee’s online platform delivers the intelligence you need every day – across all business functions and industries. With its pay-as-you-go model, ordering tailored insights is easier than ever. ‘InsightBee’s clients include Unilever, Shell, NetApp, JLL and Nestle along with a number of large and small corporate and professional services companies.’ InsightBee is enabled by Evalueserve, an existing partner of Club of Amsterdam (CoA). Evalueserve is a global professional services provider with a 3,200+ strong global team, offering research, analytics, and data management services. Powered by mind+machine™ — Evalueserve’s unique combination of human expertise and best-in-class technologies that use smart algorithms to simplify key tasks. InsightBee is very excited and proud to announce the beginning of its partnership with CoA. With InsightBee’s experience and wide talent-pool, it is confident that it can simplify and at the same time raise the bar for quality insights. InsightBee is happy to announce the following discounts and benefits for CoA members: 1) Access InsightBee through the InsightBee-CoA webpage 2) 30% discount on the first order by using the promotional code‘CoAmemberfirst’ on the ordering page 3) Ongoing 20% discount on all orders by using the promotional code‘CoA2016’ on the ordering page 4) A special 50% discount on all orders till 31st July’16 to celebrate the launch of the partnership by using the promotional code ‘CoAJuly’ on the ordering page Note: One can use only one promotional code/discount option at a time while placing a request with InsightBee. Click here to learn more about InsightBee and how to place an order. Business research was never this easy! Contact Daniel Wald at wald.daniel@insightbee.com in case of any questions or if you need any assistance. insightbee News about the Future What do Europeans do at work? A task-based analysis: European Jobs Monitor 2016 Europe has begun to emerge from the prolonged slump caused by the global financial crisis in 2008 and exacerbated by the euro zone single-currency crisis in 2010–2011. In 2014–2015, aggregate employment levels rose faster than at any time since 2008: over four million new jobs were created in the EU28. This, the fifth annual European Jobs Monitor report, looks at 2011 Q2–2015 Q2 employment shifts at Member State and aggregate EU level. A ‘jobs-based’ approach is used to describe employment shifts quantitatively (how many jobs were created or destroyed) and qualitatively (what kinds of jobs). It also introduces a new set of indicators on the task content, methods and tools used at work. Derived from international databases on work and occupations, these indicators give a detailed account of what Europeans do at work and how they do it. They also provide valuable new insights on the structural differences and recent evolution of European labour markets, as well as a better understanding of labour input in the production process and the changing nature of skills required. Foresight Africa:Top Priorities for the Continent in 2016 Africa is at a tipping point in 2016. Despite all the success the continent has achieved in recent years, new and old dangers – economic, political, and security-related – threaten to derail its progress. With sound policymaking, effective leadership, and enough foresight, however – Africa can meet and defeat these challenges as well as the many more to come. In this year’s Foresight Africa, the Africa Growth Initiative and its colleagues discuss six overarching themes that place Africa at this tipping point and give their view on what they perceive to be key areas for intervention to keep Africa on its current rising trajectory. This year’s format is different from years past, encompassing viewpoints from high-level policymakers, academics, and practitioners, as well as utilizing visuals to better illustrate the paths behind and now in front of Africa. Why Is Arctic Methane An Emergency? by Arctic Methane Emergency Group, AMEG ARCTIC METHANE The Arctic methane potential is a global warming carbon bomb (as has beenrecognised for many years). Previous estimates of Arctic carbon have doubled making the Arctic the site of 40% of all the planet’s carbon. Latest research finds the Arctic is already a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere: 50 million metric tons of methane is released per year from theEast Siberian Arctric shelf alone. Arctic methane emissions are increasing as the Arctic warms several times faster than the rest of our planet. There are three huge reservoirs of Arctic methane till recently safely controlled by the Arctic freezing cold environment. They are now all releasing additional methane to the atmosphere as the Arctic rapidly warms (carbon feedback). The more the temperature increases and the longer the Arctic warms the more methane these sources will emit. That much is certain. The most catastrophically dangerous methane source is Arctic sea floormethane hydrate. This is frozen solid methane gas under pressure in sea floor sediments. The largest source of Arctic methane hydrate is the East Siberian Arctic shelf (ESAS) , the largest continental shelf in the world. Methane is now venting to the atmosphere from under the shelf. All the evidence indicates that an abrupt massive release of methane gas from Arctic hydrates could happen which most likely would be catastrophe to the global climate and our planet. The next great immediate danger are the vast regions of Arctic and subarctic wetlands. These are peat lands that hold the most carbon of any of the world’s soils. They naturally emit some methane but as they warm they put out more methane. They can respond rapidly to a jump in Arctic warming putting out much more methane. The third huge methane source is the vast regions of permafrost. As the world warms the permafrost is thawing and is emitting methane. Permafrost can’t respond very rapidly to a jump in warming but its thawing at some point becomes irreversible. These different methane sources will combine to accelerate the rate of methane emission from each one and to accelerate the rate of Arctic warming. It is certain if the Arctic is not cooled these Arctic methane sources will greatly increase with global warming and that will greatly increase the rate of global warming. Unstoppable runaway Arctic warming will lead to unstoppable runaway global warming. To prevent runaway Arctic warming the Arctic must be cooled. A 2010 review of the Arctic carbon budget by D. McGuire et al finds that the Arctic contains several times the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Most is potentially methane. The review finds many Arctic changes that will result from global warming will increase the emission of Arctic methane. Permafrost holds a currently estimated carbon pool of double atmospheric carbon, mainly as potential methane. When permafrost thaws it adds the wetlands. The East Siberian Arctic Shelf holds over 90% of Arctic methane hydrate, which is estimated by N Shakhova at double atmospheric carbon. The subArctic Boreal forest is the largest forest store of carbon, even more than the Amazon. Boreal forest fires emit mainly CO2 but some CH4 is also emitted. In forested regions over permafrost the fire thaws surface permafrost and more methane is released. Arctic Methane: Why The Sea Ice Matters Why Is Arctic Methane An Emergency? The reason, in one word, is RUNAWAY. Runaway is a descriptive term for what the scientists call abrupt irreversible rapid global warming, which would be global climate catatsrophe. It involves tipping points. A 2012 paper By Prof C Duarte says The Arctic could Trigger Domino Effect Around the World. The science says it can happen (IPCC 2007), but it is not included in the linear projecting climate models. Abrupt climate change encompasses two extreme results of Arctic warming- abrupt cooling can happen (thermohaline circulation change) and abrupt warming (+ve Arctic feedbacks). This page covers the warming process. Abrupt climate warming could be over 10 years or more than100 years. The major risks to society and environment from climate change are posed primarily by abrupt and extreme climate phenomena. Potential forms of abrupt change include […] widespread melting of permafrost leading to large-scale shifts in the carbon cycle. Abrupt and extreme phenomena can exceed the thresholds for ecological and societal adaptation through either the rapid rate or magnitude of the associated climate change [IPCC 2007]. The US is conducting research abrupt warming situations under the Investigation of the Magnitudes and Probabilities of Abrupt Climate Transitions (IMPACTS) Project out of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This includes the following topics.Boreal/Arctic-climate positive feedbacks. Rapid destabilization of methane hydrates in Arctic Ocean sediments; and Mega droughts in North America, including the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. The background information confirms these are all real risks with continued warming, What is not addressed is that these would be mutually reinforcing. The Arctic responds to global warming by increasing the rate of warming through several feedback processes, which, if allowed to become established, will inevitably lead to uncontrollable accelerating global warming or what for many years has been called “runaway” climate change. This is not to be confused with the scientific term “runaway greenhouse effect” or Venus syndrome. There are two general, very large feedback processes in the Arctic that definitely will increase as global warming continues. One is melting Arctic ice and the other is emitting Arctic methane. The loss of ice will definitely increase the emission of Arctic methane to the atmosphere, which makes the Arctic sea ice meltdown the big planetary emergency. “Runaway” is an apt description as runaway climate change is the result of the combined three following inevitabilities: Radiative forcing from combined, cumulative, industrial GHG emissions Climate system inertia (lag time between emission and impact of GHGs) Increased radiative forcing and inertia from multiple feedbacks. We all know about the rapid meltdown of the Arctic summer sea ice. It has long been known that the vast expanse (2.5 million square miles before industrial atmopsheric GHG pollution) of the year-round Arctic sea ice acts in the summer as a cooling influence to the Arctic region, northern hemisphere and to some extent the whole global climate. Its loss in the summertime will lead to additional warming. This emergency to our planet’s biosphere comes from multiple positive Arctic climate feedback processes, each of which affects the whole biosphere and each of which will increase the rate of global warming / temperature increase. Atmospheric temperatures are rising faster in the Arctic than in other regions. Already today, all the potentially huge Arctic positive climate feedbacks are operating. The Arctic summer sea ice is in a rapid, extremely dangerous meltdown process. The Arctic summer ice albedo loss feedback (i.e., open sea absorbs more heat than ice, which reflects much of it) passed its tipping point in 2007 – many decades earlier than models projected, and scientists now agree the Arctic will be ice free during the summer by 2030. However, that is not to say it couldn’t happen very much earlier. Models of sea ice volume indicate a seasonally ice-free Arctic likely by 2015, and possibly as soon as the summer of 2013. Such a collapse will inexorably lead to an accelerated rate of Arctic carbon feedback emissions of methane from warming wetland peat bogs and thawing permafrost. The retreat of sea ice appears to be leading to the most catastrophic feedback process of all. This is the venting of methane to the atmosphere from frozen methane gas hydrates on the sea floor of the Arctic continental shelf. At the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco from 5-9 December 2011, there was a session on Arctic Gas Hydrate Methane Release and Climate Change at which Dr. Igor Semiletov of the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences reported dramatic and unprecedented plumes of methane – a greenhouse gas that is over 70 times more potent than carbon dioxide for 20 years after emission – were seen bubbling to the surface of the Arctic Ocean by scientists undertaking an extensive survey of the region. This has been reported by UK’s Independent newspaper and copied by news agencies around the world and in a number of online blogs. All of these Arctic feedbacks are described in detail in the 2009 World Wildlife Fund (WWF) report, Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications. If methane release from Arctic sea floor hydrates happens on a large scale — and this year’s reports suggest that it will — then this situation can start an uncontrollable sequence of events that would make world agriculture and civilization unsustainable. It is a responsible alarm, not alarmist, to say that it is a real threat to the survival of humanity and most life on Earth. What to do There are several ways to tackle the problem if action is not delayed: they may be grouped together as geo-engineering solutions. However, they do require rapid mobilisation on national and international scales: first, to verify the science, and second, to implement the necessary counter-measures. There is an almost impossible challenge to implement the counter-measures quickly enough to prevent the possible collapse of the Arctic sea ice in summer 2013, but this challenge has to be faced as an international emergency. —————– Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate:27/05/2016 “Methane gas released from the Arctic seabed during the summer months leads to an increased methane concentration in the ocean. But surprisingly, very little of the climate gas rising up through the sea reaches the atmosphere.” “There is still a lot we do not know about seasonal variations. The methane can also be transported by water masses, or dissolve and be eaten by bacteria in the ocean. Thus long term observations are necessary to understand the emissions throughout the year. The only way to obtain these measurements are to use observatories that remain on the seabed for a long time”, says Benedicte Ferré. Ocean floor observatories, research ship and airplane were deployed to a area of 250 active methane gas flares in the Arctic Ocean. Illustration: Torger Grytå. Recommended Book: the Industries of the Future The Industries of the FutureBy Alec Ross Leading innovation expert Alec Ross explains what’s next for the world: the advances and stumbling blocks that will emerge in the next ten years, and how we can navigate them. While Alec Ross was working as Senior Advisor for Innovation to the Secretary of State, he traveled to forty-one countries, exploring the latest advances coming out of every continent. From startup hubs in Kenya to R&D labs in South Korea, Ross has seen what the future holds. In The Industries of the Future, Ross shows us what changes are coming in the next ten years, highlighting the best opportunities for progress and explaining why countries thrive or sputter. He examines the specific fields that will most shape our economic future, including robotics, cybersecurity, the commercialization of genomics, the next step for big data, and the coming impact of digital technology on money and markets. In each of these realms, Ross addresses the toughest questions: How will we adapt to the changing nature of work? Is the prospect of cyberwar sparking the next arms race? How can the world’s rising nations hope to match Silicon Valley in creating their own innovation hotspots? And what can today’s parents do to prepare their children for tomorrow? Ross blends storytelling and economic analysis to give a vivid and informed perspective on how sweeping global trends are affecting the ways we live. Incorporating the insights of leaders ranging from tech moguls to defense experts, The Industries of the Future takes the intimidating, complex topics that many of us know to be important and boils them down into clear, plainspoken language. This is an essential book for understanding how the world works – now and tomorrow – and a must-read for businesspeople in every sector, from every country.. Futurist Portrait: Jose Cordeiro José Luis Cordeiro is a world citizen in our small planet in a big unknown universe. He was born in Latin America, from European parents, was educated in Europe and North America, and has worked extensively in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas. He has studied, visited and worked in over 130 countries in 5 continents. Mr. Cordeiro studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, USA, where he received his Bachelor of Science (B.Sc.) and Master of Science (M.Sc.) degrees in Mechanical Engineering, with a minor in Economics and Languages. His thesis consisted of a dynamic modeling for NASA’s “Freedom” Space Station (the“International” Space Station of today). He later studied International Economics and Comparative Politics at Georgetown University in Washington, USA, and then obtained his Masters of Business Administration (MBA) at theInstitut Européen d’Administration des Affaires (INSEAD) in Fontainebleau, France, where he majored in Finance and Globalization. During his studies, Mr. Cordeiro worked with the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) in Vienna, Austria, and with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC, USA. He started his doctoral degree at MIT, which he continued later in Tokyo, Japan, and finally received his PhD at Universidad Simón Bolívar (USB) in Caracas, Venezuela. He is a lifetime member of the Sigma Xi (Scientific Research) and Tau Beta Pi (Engineering) Honor Societies in North America, is also a honorary member of the Venezuelan Engineers College (CIV), and his name has been included in the Marquis Edition of Who’s Who in the World. Following his graduation, Mr. Cordeiro worked as an engineer in petroleum exploration for the French company Schlumberger. For several years, he served as an advisor for many of the major oil companies in the world, including Agip, BP, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, PDVSA, Pemex, Petrobras, Repsol, Shell and Total. Later, in Paris, he initiated his relation with the international consulting company Booz-Allen & Hamilton, where he specialized in the areas of strategy, finance and restructuring. In Latin America, he has served as an advisor for some of the most important regional corporations and has taken part in the transformation and privatization of a number of oil companies in the continent. His experience and studies in monetary policy, currency boards, dollarization and monetary unions have taken him to participate in several monetary changes in Latin America and Eastern Europe. At present, he is chair of the Venezuelan Node of the Millennium Project, Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE – JETRO) in Tokyo, Japan, and Founding Faculty and Energy Advisor at Singularity University (SU) in NASA Ames Research Park, Silicon Valley, California, USA. He is also an independent consultant, writer, researcher, professor and “tireless traveler”. He has lectured as an Invited Professor at several major institutions, from MIT in the USA and Sophia University in Japan to the Institute for Higher Studies in Administration (IESA) and the Central University of Venezuela (UCV), where he created the first formal courses of Futures Studies (“Prospectiva”) and the Austrian School of Economics in Venezuela. Mr. Cordeiro is founder and president emeritus of the World Future Society Venezuela Chapter (Sociedad Mundial del Futuro Venezuela); director of the Single Global Currency Association (SGCA) and the Lifeboat Foundation; cofounder of the Venezuelan Transhumanist Association and of the Internet Society (ISOC, Venezuela Chapter); board advisor to the Brain Preservation Foundation (BPF) and Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN); member of the Academic Committee of the Center for the Dissemination of Economic Knowledge (CEDICE), the Foresight Education and Research Network (FERN), the World Future Society (WFS) and the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF); expert member of the TechCast Project and ShapingTomorrow; former director of the World Transhumanist Association (WTA, now Humanity+), the Extropy Institute (ExI), the Club of Rome (Venezuela Chapter, where he was active promoting classical liberal ideas and the idea of “World Opportunitique” beyond “World Problematique” and “World Resolutique”) and of the Association of Venezuelan Exporters (AVEX), where he participated in the original negotiations of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). He has also been advisor to the Venezuelan Business Association (AVE) and other companies and international organizations. Jose: “The world is just half full but it is beginning to become fuller and fuller and more beautiful.” The Future of The Future printable version
Content Smart health: The death of hospitals The Future Now Show with Valery Spiridonov and Katie Aquino The Declaration of Independence of Cyberspace by John Perry Barlow News about the Future: Inferring urban travel patterns from cellphone data / EnergieTracker Asteroid Mining Recommended Book:Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future Futurist Portrait: Jaron Lanier Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Valery Spiridonov, first ever human head transplant patient, Russia and Katie Aquino Don’t miss our event in Amsterdam!.15 Nov 2016, morning How Fashion Meets ImpactA Blue Ocean Investment Strategy for the Global Textile & Garment Industryin cooperation with impact economy Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Smart health: The death of hospitals By Ed Currie. Ed is a UK-trained medical doctor with over 25 years’ industry experience in pharmaceuticals, diagnostics, medical devices, precision medicine and digital health. This article first appeared in Perspectives 2016 Dr. Ed Currie explains why although there will always be a place for hospitals, they will be much smaller and unrecognizable from how they are today. And why that is great news. Who would choose to spend time in a hospital unless absolutely necessary? They are dangerous and hugely expensive places to be (see infographic at the bottom of the article). The US leads the pack at an average of over $4,000 per bed per day – the price of a luxury suite in a five-star hotel. Prices elsewhere are lower, but still painful. Surprisingly, these costs are often not visible to patients or healthcare professionals. However, there is now a move towards increasing the transparency of hospital pricing, driven by growing awareness of the unsustainability of healthcare costs. Payers are beginning to limit reimbursement for hospital stays, and in several countries will not now pay for readmissions within 30 days of hospital discharge for the same condition, or complications arising from it. It is perhaps no surprise that Castlight, a health IT company that provides visibility of healthcare cost to enterprises, attracted such interest for its IPO. Hospital without beds In his book The Patient Will See You Now, Eric Topol describes a hospital that seems to be pointing the way forward: The new Montefiore Medical Center in New York City has 280,000 square feet, over 11 stories, 12 operating rooms, four procedure rooms, an advanced imaging center, laboratory, and pharmacy services – but no beds! What is driving this reduction in hospital beds? First, a steady improvement in the efficiency of medical procedures over the last decades means that many that used to require a hospital stay – such as coronary angiography, organ biopsies, surgeries – can now be done on an outpatient basis. Even those that require hospitalization now require much shorter stays. Second, healthcare is seeing a shift from illness to wellness. Preventing a disease is always preferable to treating it. Whether it’s avoiding smoking, managing stress through meditation, eating more healthily, or exercising, more people are taking responsibility for their own health. Although many members of society resist health advice, insurance companies are beginning to provide data-driven incentives to those who take steps (in some cases literally) to live more healthily. In September 2015, Google Capital invested in Oscar, an innovative US health insurer that provides Misfit step trackers to its enrollees, and rewards those who use them. Better outcomes Third, if you’re unlucky enough to develop a disease, then earlier detection and intervention will increase your chances of a good outcome, and reduce your need for hospital visits. For example, diabetic patients who are diligent at measuring and controlling their blood sugar have fewer complications. Cancer is another area that is seeing big advances in early diagnosis and effective treatment. Increased awareness through public health campaigns, improvements in diagnostic technologies like imaging, and the development of new tests, such as breathalyzers for stomach and lung cancer, will allow doctors to pick up the disease while it is more treatable. In future, we are also going to see an increase in the use of molecular diagnostic tests in treating and diagnosing cancer. For example, in the UK the NHS 100,000 Genomes Project is sequencing genomes from 25,000 cancer patients, which will lead to personalized (precision) medicine and diagnostics. The interoperability of data from all sources with medical records will be critical in allowing deep analytics on which to base treatments, as will robust data privacy and security to ensure trust. Stay at home Fourth, the delivery of medical care at home, either instead of a hospital stay or after a short one, means that “the hospital room of the future will be the bedroom,” according to Eric Topol. Primary care physicians, specialists and hospitals are now offering medical consultations via video or Skype. Nurses, who are alerted and authenticated by algorithms monitoring the patient’s vital signs, may supplement these with home visits. Remote monitoring of health parameters has for some years been a reality for diabetics (blood glucose), and is beginning to extend to multiple parameters, both active (blood pressure, pulse rate, weight, electrocardiogram) and passive (motion sensors in rooms and under mattresses, gait-measuring sensors in the floor, activation sensors on the fridge and in smart pill boxes, as well as health-relevant temperature and air quality sensors, like Google Nest). Data collection, with patients’ consent, need not stop at the home, but can extend into their car, workplace, or doctor’s office, and can be integrated with their electronic health record to allow analysis. No longer alone Finally, many elderly people stay in hospital for longer than they need, or have to go into a care home, because they have no one to look after them at home. In the UK, delayed discharges account for over 1 million hospital bed days blocked per year. One approach, still in its infancy but being trialed, is robot caregivers. While robots cannot yet replace humans, especially from the emotional perspective, they are expected increasingly to supplement human caregivers, and are becoming ever more lifelike: Nadine, a robot assistant developed in Singapore, gives a glimpse of the future. Robots, combined with remote monitoring and telemedicine, might be enough to tip the balance towards a patient being able to cope at home. Robot Nadine (right) is modeled on real-life Nadine (left) There will always be a role for hospitals – for example, for complex surgery or acute care after accidents – but their role will change significantly. A combination of preventive wellness, early disease detection, minimally invasive medical procedures, precision medicine, and remote, monitored homecare (eventually supplemented by friendly robots), will steadily reduce the need for hospitals. In the future, the smartest cities will be the ones with the fewest hospital beds. How Fashion Meets Impact Breakfast Event in AmsterdamHow Fashion Meets ImpactA Blue Ocean Investment Strategy for the Global Textile & Garment Industryin cooperation with Impact EconomyTuesday, November 15, 2016, 09:15-11:00Location: Denim City | Amsterdam, Hannie Dankbaarpassage 47, 1052 RT Amsterdam With Dr. Maximilian Martin, Founder & President, Impact EconomyJasmeet Sehmi, Investment Group, Impact EconomyTobias Roederer, Investment Group, Impact EconomyEva Olde Monnikhof, Director, AVL-Mundo The Future Now Show with Valery Spiridonov and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show September 2016first human head transplantfeaturingValery Spiridonov, first ever human head transplant patient, RussiaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USA Daily Mail: Valery Spiridonov will undergo the first ever human head transplant. The 31-year-old is wheelchair reliant due to a muscle-wasting disease. The operation will allow him to walk for the first time in his adult life. His pioneering procedure is expected to take place in December 2017. The Declaration of Independence of Cyberspace by John Perry Barlow Governments of the Industrial World, you weary giants of flesh and steel, I come from Cyberspace, the new home of Mind. On behalf of the future, I ask you of the past to leave us alone. You are not welcome among us. You have no sovereignty where we gather. We have no elected government, nor are we likely to have one, so I address you with no greater authority than that with which liberty itself always speaks. I declare the global social space we are building to be naturally independent of the tyrannies you seek to impose on us. You have no moral right to rule us nor do you possess any methods of enforcement we have true reason to fear. Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed. You have neither solicited nor received ours. We did not invite you. You do not know us, nor do you know our world. Cyberspace does not lie within your borders. Do not think that you can build it, as though it were a public construction project. You cannot. It is an act of nature and it grows itself through our collective actions. You have not engaged in our great and gathering conversation, nor did you create the wealth of our marketplaces. You do not know our culture, our ethics, or the unwritten codes that already provide our society more order than could be obtained by any of your impositions. You claim there are problems among us that you need to solve. You use this claim as an excuse to invade our precincts. Many of these problems don’t exist. Where there are real conflicts, where there are wrongs, we will identify them and address them by our means. We are forming our own Social Contract. This governance will arise according to the conditions of our world, not yours. Our world is different. Cyberspace consists of transactions, relationships, and thought itself, arrayed like a standing wave in the web of our communications. Ours is a world that is both everywhere and nowhere, but it is not where bodies live. We are creating a world that all may enter without privilege or prejudice accorded by race, economic power, military force, or station of birth. We are creating a world where anyone, anywhere may express his or her beliefs, no matter how singular, without fear of being coerced into silence or conformity. Your legal concepts of property, expression, identity, movement, and context do not apply to us. They are all based on matter, and there is no matter here. Our identities have no bodies, so, unlike you, we cannot obtain order by physical coercion. We believe that from ethics, enlightened self-interest, and the commonweal, our governance will emerge. Our identities may be distributed across many of your jurisdictions. The only law that all our constituent cultures would generally recognize is the Golden Rule. We hope we will be able to build our particular solutions on that basis. But we cannot accept the solutions you are attempting to impose. In the United States, you have today created a law, the Telecommunications Reform Act, which repudiates your own Constitution and insults the dreams of Jefferson, Washington, Mill, Madison, DeToqueville, and Brandeis. These dreams must now be born anew in us. You are terrified of your own children, since they are natives in a world where you will always be immigrants. Because you fear them, you entrust your bureaucracies with the parental responsibilities you are too cowardly to confront yourselves. In our world, all the sentiments and expressions of humanity, from the debasing to the angelic, are parts of a seamless whole, the global conversation of bits. We cannot separate the air that chokes from the air upon which wings beat. In China, Germany, France, Russia, Singapore, Italy and the United States, you are trying to ward off the virus of liberty by erecting guard posts at the frontiers of Cyberspace. These may keep out the contagion for a small time, but they will not work in a world that will soon be blanketed in bit-bearing media. Your increasingly obsolete information industries would perpetuate themselves by proposing laws, in America and elsewhere, that claim to own speech itself throughout the world. These laws would declare ideas to be another industrial product, no more noble than pig iron. In our world, whatever the human mind may create can be reproduced and distributed infinitely at no cost. The global conveyance of thought no longer requires your factories to accomplish. These increasingly hostile and colonial measures place us in the same position as those previous lovers of freedom and self-determination who had to reject the authorities of distant, uninformed powers. We must declare our virtual selves immune to your sovereignty, even as we continue to consent to your rule over our bodies. We will spread ourselves across the Planet so that no one can arrest our thoughts. We will create a civilization of the Mind in Cyberspace. May it be more humane and fair than the world your governments have made before. Davos, SwitzerlandFebruary 8, 1996 News about the Future Inferring urban travel patterns from cellphone dataResearchers from MIT and Ford Motor have developed a new computational system that uses cellphone location data to infer urban mobility patterns. Big-data analysis could give city planners timelier, more accurate alternatives to commuter surveys. “In the U.S., every metropolitan area has an MPO, which is a metropolitan planning organization, and their main job is to use travel surveys to derive the travel demand model, which is their baseline for predicting and forecasting travel demand to build infrastructure,” says Shan Jiang, a postdoc in the Human Mobility and Networks Lab in MIT’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. “So our method and model could be the next generation of tools for the planners to plan for the next generation of infrastructure.” “The great advantage of our framework is that it learns mobility features from a large number of users, without having to ask them directly about their mobility choices,” says Marta Gonza´lez, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering (CEE) at MIT and senior author on the paper. “Based on that, we create individual models to estimate complete daily trajectories of the vast majority of mobile-phone users. Likely, in time, we will see that this brings the comparative advantage of making urban transportation planning faster and smarter and even allows directly communicating recommendations to device users.” EnergieTracker The EnergieTracker is a tool for the automatic capture, storage and transmission of meter readings by smartphone. EnergieTracker’s recognition technology for meter readings is the result of very intensive development work involving all common models of electricity and gas meters. Asteroid Mining This video continues our look at Colonizing Space by examining the idea of Asteroid Mining and setting up colonies on Asteroids. We explore the science as well as practical issues of engineering, economics, legality, and psychology of such distant outposts. Recommended Book: Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Futureby Martin Ford What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? We might imagine – and hope – that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new innovations of a new era. In Rise of the Robots, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, journalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As progress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evaporate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever further. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries – education and health care – that, so far, have not been transformed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implosion of the consumer economy itself. Futurist Portrait: Jaron Lanier Jaron Lanier is a computer scientist, author, and composer. As a writer: Lanier is one of most celebrated technology writers in the world, and is known for charting a humanistic approach to technology appreciation and criticism. He was awarded the Peace Prize of the German Book Trade in 2014. His book “Who Owns the Future?” won Harvard’s Goldsmith Book Prize in 2014. His books are international best sellers. “Who Owns the Future?” was named the most important book of 2013 by Joe Nocera in The New York Times, and was also included in many other “best of” lists. “You Are Not a Gadget,” released in 2010, was named one of the 10 best books of the year by Michiko Kakutani, and was also named on many “best of year” lists. He writes and speaks on numerous topics, including high-technology business, the social impact of technological practices, the philosophy of consciousness and information, Internet politics, and the future of humanism. In recent years he has been named one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time Magazine, one of the 100 top public intellectuals by Foreign Policy Magazine, and one of the top 50 World Thinkers by Prospect Magazine. His writing has appeared in The New York Times, Discover (where he has been a columnist), The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Harpers Magazine, Nature, The Sciences, Wired Magazine (where he was a founding contributing editor), and Scientific American. He has edited special “future” issues of SPIN and Civilization magazines. As a technologist: Lanier’s name is often associated with Virtual Reality research. He either coined or popularized the term ‘Virtual Reality’ and in the early 1980s founded VPL Research, the first company to sell VR products. In the late 1980s he led the team that developed the first implementations of multi-person virtual worlds using head mounted displays, as well as the first “avatars,” or representations of users within such systems. While at VPL, he and his colleagues developed the first implementations of virtual reality applications in surgical simulation, vehicle interior prototyping, virtual sets for television production, and assorted other areas. He led the team that developed the first widely used software platform architecture for immersive virtual reality applications. Lanier has received honorary doctorates from the New Jersey Institute of Technology and Franklin and Marshall College, was the recipient of CMU’s Watson award in 2001, was a finalist for the first Edge of Computation Award in 2005, and received a Lifetime Career Award from the IEEE in 2009 for contributions to Virtual Reality. Lanier has been a founder or principal of four startups that were either directly or indirectly acquired by Oracle, Adobe, Google, and Pfizer. From 1997 to 2001, Lanier was the Chief Scientist of Advanced Network and Services, which contained the Engineering Office of Internet2, and served as the Lead Scientist of the National Tele-immersion Initiative, a coalition of research universities studying advanced applications for Internet2. The Initiative demonstrated the first prototypes of tele-immersion in 2000. From 2001 to 2004 he was Visiting Scientist at Silicon Graphics Inc., where he developed solutions to core problems in telepresence and tele-immersion. He was Scholar at Large for Microsoft from 2006 to 2009, and Interdisciplinary Scientist at Microsoft Research from 2009 forward. In the sciences: Jaron Lanier’s scientific interests include the use of Virtual Reality as a research tool in cognitive science, biomimetic information architectures, experimental user interfaces, heterogeneous scientific simulations, advanced information systems for medicine, and computational approaches to the fundamentals of physics. He collaborates with a wide range of scientists in fields related to these interests. Jaron: “But the Turing test cuts both ways. You can’t tell if a machine has gotten smarter or if you’ve just lowered your own standards of intelligence to such a degree that the machine seems smart. If you can have a conversation with a simulated person presented by an AI program, can you tell how far you’ve let your sense of personhood degrade in order to make the illusion work for you? People degrade themselves in order to make machines seem smart all the time. Before the crash, bankers believed in supposedly intelligent algorithms that could calculate credit risks before making bad loans. We ask teachers to teach to standardized tests so a student will look good to an algorithm. We have repeatedly demonstrated our species’ bottomless ability to lower our standards to make information technology look good. Every instance of intelligence in a machine is ambiguous. The same ambiguity that motivated dubious academic AI projects in the past has been repackaged as mass culture today. Did that search engine really know what you want, or are you playing along, lowering your standards to make it seem clever? While it’s to be expected that the human perspective will be changed by encounters with profound new technologies, the exercise of treating machine intelligence as real requires people to reduce their mooring to reality.” Who Owns the Future? printable version
Content Middle East 2030: Three visions for one region Breakfast Event in Amsterdam The Future Now Show with Phyllis Josefine and Zak Field Trust Yourself by Terence Mckenna News about the Future: Magnetoreception / Future of an ageing population Back to the Job Recommended Book: Future Humans Futurist Portrait: Vint Cerf Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Phyllis Josefine and Zak Field 15 Nov 2016, morningHow Fashion Meets ImpactA Blue Ocean Investment Strategy for the Global Textile & Garment Industryin cooperation with Impact Economy Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Middle East 2030: Three visions for one region Excerpt GEAB May 2016 GEAB (Global Europe Anticipation Bulletin) by LEAP After Iran and Turkey, a few weeks ago Saudi Arabia presented its “Visions for the future”, and our team considers it important to integrate the strategic developmental plans of the three major Middle East players in its anticipation work. What seems of particular interest to our team is: on one hand (from a pessimistic angle) to anticipate the risks of collision between those plans; on the other hand (and in a more optimistic tone) to note the public nature of those agendas allowing the players to sit at a table and talk about it.First, we will summarize the highlights of each of these Visions. Secondly, the risks of encroachment and collision are raised. The similarity of these three agendas provides a beautiful example of the dangers presented by the multi-polarization of the world and its major regions. At the same time, there is no doubt that having more global-sized players, who have no other choice but to deal with each other, provides the conditions for a new type of governance. Figure 1 – Map of the Middle East. Source: google map. Today, while chaos is reigning in Syria and Iraq, three major protagonists emerge from the conflicted Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, three states involved in the Syrian conflict, with common interests regarding the Islamic State, but having different reactions with respect to the Syrian state; three states which have recently launched themselves in the conquest of another dimension, that of the future, of their future and of the future of this wide Middle East region. The most striking is, of course, the one named “Vision 2030?, a programme presented by Saudi Arabia in April, a model of its kind [001]. First of all, it is about their survival and about taking their states out of the economic, financial and social crisis. For Saudi Arabia, it is about coming out of the oil era and about its launching into the exploitation of new resources; for Turkey, it is about getting out of the European bee-eater, while keeping its pivotal role of mediator between Europe, Asia and Africa; for Iran, it is about conquering the world in order to recover its place among the Middle East power states. Yet, it is also about creating room for the future of their political regimes, with all the faults they might have: absolute monarchy in Saudi Arabia, Mullahs’ regime in Iran, Erdogan’s leadership in Turkey. There is nothing better than projecting the immutability of state governance rules over 20 years. Yet, whether it is Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Iran, it is primarily about ensuring a predominant role for each of them in the future organization of their region. Saudi Arabia – Oil crisis; Yemen, Islamic State – Economic, financial and social stagnation, political archaism: on the horizon 2030, collapse or salvation The oil era has just taken a sudden disturbing turn. The collapse of prices is not only the consequence of a decreased demand (to which the production decline has not been able to put an end), but a change in global paradigms. Indeed, during this global strategic retreat [002], the states seek to limit their dependence, including those related to energy: the United States became the first oil producer, “thanks” to the shale resources [003]; Europe turned to other sources (nuclear, coal, wind, solar and waterpower); new players have entered the market, including Iran. Figure 2: Energy resources consumption – Source : peakoil.com Burdened by structural debt, Saudi Arabia has to leave the petrodollar kingdom and diversify its energy resources. Some even predict the imminent end of this kingdom [004]: the country introduced late in 2015, for the third year in a row, a budget deficit of 20% of its GDP [005], and the 2016 forecasts do not look much better [006]. This state is burdened with debts, namely those of its princes. The reasons for this financial and economic downturn are, of course, the oil price collapse and also the astronomical costs of the war in Yemen [007]. The war is a military and economic catastrophe, weighing primarily on the future of the younger generation [008] as well as on the risks of social blunders, particularly among immigrant workers (second class citizens [009]. « Saudi Arabia: the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds, the investment powerhouse, and the hub connecting three continents… Africa, Asia and Europe »… This is the way the Council of Ministers of King Salman introduced Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. This is a development strategy which included the new face of Saudi Arabia in the twenty-first century world: modern, responsible (here we find all the issues of our time: ecology, economy, society, sustainability, solidarity…), multi-polar. What is missing, though, is the politico-democratic aspect (and here comes the notion of effectiveness and efficiency of the geostrategic political system of the Kingdom, as well as its agile role). Finally, “Vision 2030? aims to give Saudi Arabia a “leadership role” in the Arab and Islamic world, providing it with economic and socially sustainable development. By forging a “nation”, it seeks to become a regional model, as we wrote in the last GEAB [010] “which has transformed the Gulf principalities into free zones and has extended, by pouring in petrodollars, its ideological influence throughout the poor Arab world, whose social fabrics have greatly suffered from this polarization between western modernity and Saudi archaism“. But previously, all this used to happen in the shadows… Turkey’s central role [011] Figure 3: Turkey’s central position. Source: Ali Velshi Turkey, a leading power in the Middle East, directly affected both financially and socially by the geopolitical instability of its environment (Syrian intervention and Kurdish crisis, terrorist attacks and tourism decline, Russian sanctions against Ankara, mass numbers of refugees costing it $10 billion [012] however has managed so far to maintain a moderate growth [013]. After negotiating with the EU the sealing of its borders against the flow of refugees and the visa liberalization for its citizens, Turkey is turning its back on Europe (marked by the ouster of its too pro-European Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu) [014]. At the same time, it remains beneficiary of an important and traditional European financial windfall, which increased by six billion Euros with the refugee crisis in 2016/2017 (security has a price: Turkey is a direct step to the Schengen area in Europe and welcomes more than 2.5 million Syrian and Iraqi refugees [015], knowing that Lebanon welcomes only just more than one million and Jordan a little more than 600,000 – figures which obviously need to be connected to the national populations of those states). Certainly, fulfilling the conditions for joining the EU in 2023 represents the first point of the “Vision 2023? programme (hence its name). However, besides the economic objectives which were recently recalled within nine points, the whole project is about the central role of Turkey in the region: economic and security cooperation, conflict resolution, global positioning, G10 integration and a major role in international organizations [016] … and in the Islamic world [By creating an Islamic Mega-bank in Istanbul. [017]. Iran: Persian Channel, Silk Road and even BRICS agenda – “back in the game” [018] Figure 4: The new Silk Road, toward Iran. Source: the International Network Iran’s international relations with the rest of the world are getting back to normal, except with the United States [019] and its allies in the Arab world (and Israel). These nations are questioning the religious differences and Iran’s hegemony, when in fact it is much more about keeping the economic appetite of this re-emerging country behind the wall created by international sanctions, a wall which has just fallen, as we all know [020]. While the oil embargo was lifted, opening the doors to exportations, Iran prefers higher prices to maximize the income of its production. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, wants to keep prices as low as possible to compete with the price of the US shale [021] That said, Iran’s return on the international stage after ten years of total blackout is definitely more of an opportunity for the country and for the world – the Europeans are not the last ones to ogle this new market, by the way [022] a promising market not only for oil resources, but also for rare mining treasures [023]. Also, it is interesting to note that, during the oil and trans-regional geopolitical crisis, Iran decided to take all possible advantage of its resources, without having to bear the same constraints as the American allies. Here we have a new opening market, free of western influence, detached from the petrodollar [024] (unlike Saudi Arabia [025]), which resolutely turns toward the emerging Asian world, to which it represents the first continental step [026] Iran, with a population which is very young but growing in figures, frustrated by an unemployment rate of about 40%, with aging political leaders and systems, overnight has become an essential and central actor in the Middle East, imposing very serious developmental strategies. During the last national conference on geopolitical developments in West Asia, Iran confirmed its strategy of turning resolutely toward Asia and of forming a grand coalition with the Asian powers [027], Russia, China, India and Pakistan, reconsidering at the same time a rapprochement with Turkey [028]. Iran is already one of the destinations of the Silk Road [029], a project which will fully root this country into the Asian continent. Iran plans to intensify its relations with India [030] and with Russia (through a channel-building project, connecting the Caspian Sea to the Persian Gulf [031]). Those are strategies relying on the multi-polar world, allowing the country to develop and avoid being trapped into an economy based on oil [032], but also to establish its leadership role and contribute, at the same time, to the emergence of conditions for regional stabilization and peace [033]. Unlike Saudi Arabia or Turkey, Iran can rely on its new agile and flexible economy, thanks to the fact that it does not systemically rely on the dollar world. Modern, ambitious and multi-polar programmes The “Visions” 2030 are presented as scale model economic, financial and technological projects, intended to ensure the development of the countries concerned. They are primarily conceived as bringing these countries into the G10, G20, at the global level, transforming them into major continental powers to take into account when speaking of geopolitical relations in the world. Mega-projects: mega-bank, mega-channel, mega-extension of Mecca, mega financial hub… we are facing here powers which own the means and tools meeting the new paradigms of the twenty-first century’s modernity. The political and democratic aspects need some facelifts in order to allow people to join: Saudi Arabia is currently renewing its political class [034] by planning before 2020 the training of more than 500,000 civil servants [035] and by implementing a wide system of NGOs and volunteers who will support the Prince’s entire visionary project [036]. As for the democratic future of Turkey or Iran, the systemic changes will not be able to ensure the economic sustainability and the social stability without democratization. Moreover, the regional aspirations of these three players will imply that they also become political and social stability models. Unless there is a wish to build an empire, and thereby perpetuate the logic of war, people cannot guide the world without respecting the rights and freedoms of others. That’s the whole point of the multi-polar world, in fact. If these programmes are part of the movement named the “great global strategic retreat”, as mentioned in our previous bulletins [037], it is clear that they must incorporate and get integrated into the multi-polar reality of the world, a multi-polarity which also applies to the Middle Eastern region. We therefore have three states claiming the same central position, the same pivotal role connecting three continents, Europe, Asia and Africa, counting on their preferred networks and partners. Saudi Arabia uses the Egyptian support, Iran uses Asia, and Turkey uses the European platform. Mega-budget powers in terms of defence and security [038]: a future tinderbox Placed at the heart of the Middle East tinderbox, directly involved in the conflict against the IS, Riyadh, Ankara and Tehran are armed to the teeth. The defence and arms budgets explode in Saudi Arabia, due to the Yemen war. Erdogan in his fight against Daech is being forced to cooperate more with his army (the eighth army in the world and first in the Middle East) and thereby enables the military power to regain control of the Kurdish politics of Turkey. The war against the PKK in the Kurdish region has produced more than 500,000 internal refugees [039], increasing internal chaos, civil war and riots. As for Iran, while signing military procurement agreements with Russia [040], the parliament has, in the same spirit, given the green light for the country’s new defensive capacity building programme, by allocating 5% of the total budget to the financing plan of the Iranian defence complex [041]. We could legitimately worry about the military face of the three states, especially since their 2030 agendas clearly show that this entire military arsenal is intended to be produced by each of the three countries, in order to avoid any dependence on international contracts. In 2030, arms dealers will have to worry, because most probably each state will be able to produce its own weapons and launch its own high-tech drone squadrons into the air, but especially international organizations should worry about such deployment of risky and uncontrollable death producing technologies. Yet, we’re not even talking about nuclear proliferation. Of course, one thinks first of accusing Iran of developing its ballistic [042] missile program, but let’s face it, Saudi Arabia holds its own nuclear weapons [043] (reinforced by Donald Trump’s statements [044]), and Turkey, if it does not produce weapons itself, is suspected of holding some American bombs [045], NATO commands… Hegemonic temptations of 2030/2036 agendas… None of the three states is hiding its ambition to play the role of “leader” in the region, or even beyond that. This is how the Council of Ministers of King Salman introduced the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030: “Saudi Arabia at the heart of the Arab and Islamic worlds, an economic powerhouse, the hub that connects three continents, Africa, Asia and Europe”… The same status is given to Erdogan’s Turkey, which occupies the best place for the East-West and North-South relations, meaning a market of 1.5 billion consumers in Europe, Eurasia, the Middle East and North Africa [046], willing to host in Istanbul in 2020 the Islamic Mega-bank [047]. There is also Rohani’s Iran, which claims to be part of the “Muslim” world [048] and projects itself into an Asian space. As we have seen it above, Saudi Arabia uses the Egyptian support, while Iran uses Asian support, and Turkey is using Europe in its favour. Yet, all of them are addressing the entire Muslim or Islamic world, eyes pointed to the Middle East, this land which has continued to survive the upheavals of history, lining up one conflict after another, until this common enemy, and hopefully the last, Daech, an enemy bringing chaos in the Arab, Muslim, all-faith, all-sect, all-everything worlds. Upon this community of interests, tempting Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey to become each the major player in the region, a new Middle East will emerge, open to multi-polar perspectives, to Asia, Russia, Europe, but also Africa, the latter firmly focused on its elder “brothers” creating more hopes around them than around the former colonizers and neo-colonizers [049]. Nevertheless, one more black hole should be avoided: the return of a US policy which has forsaken the land of the Middle East during the presidential campaign (a 6 month break, already) and has allowed Obama to finally implement his own geopolitical strategy, by defining himself the enemies or friends of the United States. In November, all this might change. Whether we are talking about Hillary Clinton, the well known anti-Iranian candidate, or Donald Trump [050], who continues to lambast Obama for abandoning the “friends” of the United States (Israel, Saudi Arabia), while at the same time he is threatening them to ask for explanations (mostly from the Muslim or Islamist “friends”), the risks of new upheaval partnerships, with new chaotic perspectives in this region, are higher and higher. Only then will long-term perspectives for the region really be determined. Yet, we feel that the players are tired of waiting for Godot, and that their young populations aspire to other horizons, with the risk of falling into another dimension. The Middle East region should finally enjoy the “momentum” and consider now its own pacification tracks [051]. [001] The entire English text here Al Arabiya, 26/04/2016. [002] According to the GEAB 101, 15/01/2016. [003] Source: Les Echos, 10/06/2015. [004] Source: Le Saker Francophone, 06/03/2016. [005] Saudi Arabia is sinking in its budget deficit. Source: Les Echos, 28/12/2015. [006] The debt grade was lowered to « AA- ». Source: La Presse.ca, 12/04/2016. [007] Source: Opex, 29/12/2015. Leading weapon importer in the world, Saudi Arabia dedicates a quarter of its budget to the state’s defence and security, meaning 10.7% of its GDP. Source: La Banque Mondiale. [008] Three quarters of the population is less than 30 years old and 60% less than 25 years old, the demographic curve going up. Source: United Nations, Demographic Components of Future Population Growth. [009] Considering the violent riots of the 50,000 foreign employees of the Bin Laden Group who were asked to pack and leave the country, knowing they had not been paid for months. Source: Middle East Eye, 01/05/2016. [010] Source: GEAB 104 [011] Title given to the GEAB 98, October 15, 2015 [012] Source: Al Monitor, 13/05/2016.. [013] Source: WSJ, 31/03/2016. [014] Source: LSE, 10/05/2016 [015] Source: Commission européenne [016] Source: Foreign Affairs, 2013 [017] By creating an Islamic Mega-bank in Istanbul. Source: NEX, 13/05/2016. [018] Similar title, the Arabian Business, 11/03/2016. [019] Source : 24heures.ch, 27/04/2016 [020] Read on the same topic: « Le bras de fer entre l’Arabie saoudite et l’Iran n’est pas vraiment sectaire ». Source: MiddleEastEye, 13/01/2016 [021] Source: MiddleEastEye, 13/01/2016 [022] Germany is the first recipient and should benefit from the Iranian exports of 2 billion Euros over 2015-2017. It is followed by France, Italy and the UK. Source: Le Monde, 25/01/2016. [023] One of the leading 15 gold resources, but counting also on many more different minerals (around 68). Source: Rare Gold Nuggets [024] Source: Indian Times [025] Source: Les Echos, 25/04/2016. [026] Source: Teheran Times, 08/05/2016. [027] Source: Iran Daily, 28/04/2016. [028] Source: Mehr News, 12/05/2016. [029] First Chinese train arrived in Teheran on February 15, 2016. Source: Europe1, 15/02/2016. [030] Source: Times of India, 01/05/2016. [031] Source: Russian Today, 11/04/2016. [032] Iran’s sustained prosperity must be built on a non-oil economy. Source: Mehr News, 01/05/2016. [033] Source: Mehr News, 03/02/2016. [034] Mohammed Ibn Salman Al Saudi, Vice-Heir Prince, Minister of Defence, Second Vice-Prime Minister, President of the Economic Affairs Council, in charge of the oil and economic policies of the Kingdom, is only 31 years old. Source: Wikipedia. Another example would be the Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, 81 years old and having ruled for 21 years. Source: SZ.de, 10/05/2016. [035] Source: Vision 2030 § 3.1.5 [036] « Among our commitments: A more impactful non-profit sector », Vision 2030 § 3.2.3 [037] And here, before the « hard-landing » of Saudi Arabia or the integrant spirit of Iran. Source GEAB 101, 15/01/2016. [038] Read also « Les dépenses mondiales d’armement s’envolent ». Source: L’Economiste, 22/02/2016. [039] Source: Zaman France, 28/05/2016. [040] Source: RBTH, 18/02/2016. [041] Source: Sputnik, 05/05/2016. [042] Source: Tribune de Genève, 09/05/2016. [043] In 2013, we were asking ourselves about the origin of these weapons. Source: BBC, 06/11/2013. [044] Source: Breitbart, 29/03/2016. [045] Old information, true, but why would the situation have changed after all? Source: Sortir du nucléaire, 10/09/2010. [046] Turkey, Vision 2023. Source: Foreign Affairs, 2013. [047] Source: Bloomberg, 11/05/2016. [048] Iran does not want a Shiite « croissant », it believes in the « Muslim moon ». Source: l’Orient le Jour, 22/04/2016. [049] In the Middle East, as in North Africa, the 2030/2036 agendas are welcomed with interest, for instance in Algeria. Source: La Tribune, 27/04/2016; Kuwait: « Vision 2035 ». Source: Podcast Journal, 09/05/2016. [050] Source: Al Arabiya, 18/04/2016. [051] The Middle East can break free of Western hegemony and internal ills. Source: MiddleEastEye, 26/04/2016. Read also: THINK AGAIN: Egypt looks South, finally. Source: ISS Africa, 28/04/2016. The GEAB, LEAP’s confidential letter is a monthly bulletin available under subscription. Its contents are not made available to the public until three months later. We offer you the access to this exclusive article from May’s bulletin (GEAB n°105). If you want to read our articles in real time, subscribeto the GEAB! How Fashion Meets Impact Breakfast Event in AmsterdamHow Fashion Meets ImpactA Blue Ocean Investment Strategy for the Global Textile & Garment Industryin cooperation with Impact EconomyTuesday, November 15, 2016, 09:15-11:00Location: Denim City | Amsterdam, Hannie Dankbaarpassage 47, 1052 RT Amsterdam With Dr. Maximilian Martin, Founder & President, Impact EconomyJasmeet Sehmi, Investment Group, Impact EconomyTobias Roederer, Investment Group, Impact EconomyEva Olde Monnikhof, Director, AVL-Mundo The Future Now Show with Phyllis Josefine and Zak Field Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show October 2016 Music, AI, the future of MultimediafeaturingPhyllis Josefine, Phyllis Josefine aka DADA, future multimedia artist, musician, GermanyZak Field, CEO of BodAi, UK Trust Yourself by Terence Mckenna Terence McKenna (1946-2000) is an American ethnobotanist, psychonaut, lecturer, author, and an advocate for the responsible use of naturally occurring psychedelic substances. “I really think the internet is the tip of the evolutionary iceberg. In other words, you know, people are waiting for jesus to come, they are waiting for the flying saucers to bail them out, they are waiting for Earth changes… Meanwhile, the internet is here. The internet is more life changing than an alien invasion, far more interesting than an Earth change. It’s here!” – Terence McKennaTrust Yourself News about the Future Magnetoreception Thinner than plastic wrap and lighter than a feather, electronic skin, also known as smart skin or imperceptible electronics, detects information about the internal and external environments. Such technology has been in development for wearable medical instruments, health monitors, prosthetics with sensory feedback, and even robotic skin. Now, scientists are expanding electronic skin into the realm of the once-impossible: endowing humans with a sixth sense. “It would truly be a sixth-sense technology,” says Denys Makarov of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf in Germany. “Artificial magnetoreception is something that extends the five natural senses of humans to something that is unavailable.” Future of an ageing population (pdf) by the Government Office for Science, UK This report brings together evidence about today’s older population, with future trends and projections, to identify the implications for the UK. This evidence will help government to develop the policies needed to adapt to an ageing population. Back to the Job A forest can be cleared quickly using the right kind of equipment – if you only have one chainsaw it takes a little bit longer. In a wheelchair the lumberjack would not even get to the first tree. At the Rehacare in Düsseldorf, companies are demonstrating how to solve this problem. Back into the job after having an accident with consequences – and we’re not only talking about desk jobs here. Recommended Book: Future Humans Future Humansby Scott Solomon Inside the Science of Our Continuing Evolution Are humans still subject to the forces of evolution? An evolutionary biologist provides surprising insights into the future of Homo sapiens In this intriguing book, evolutionary biologist Scott Solomon draws on the explosion of discoveries in recent years to examine the future evolution of our species. Combining knowledge of our past with current trends, Solomon offers convincing evidence that evolutionary forces still affect us today. But how will modernization – including longer lifespans, changing diets, global travel, and widespread use of medicine and contraceptives – affect our evolutionary future? Solomon presents an entertaining and accessible review of the latest research on human evolution in modern times, drawing on fields from genomics to medicine and the study of our microbiome. Surprising insights, on topics ranging from the rise of online dating and Cesarean sections to the spread of diseases such as HIV and Ebola, suggest that we are entering a new phase in human evolutionary history – one that makes the future less predictable and more interesting than ever before. Scott Solomon is an evolutionary biologist and science writer. He teaches ecology, evolutionary biology, and scientific communication at Rice University, where he is a Professor in the Practice in the Department of BioSciences. He lives in Houston, TX. Futurist Portrait: Vint Cerf Vint Cerf is vice president and Chief Internet Evangelist for Google – “advocate of expanding internet to entire world population; work to find new technologies relevant to Google; serve as “intellectual bumblebee” among the remote engineering offices; participate in policy development and advocacy.” He contributes to global policy development and continued spread of the Internet. Widely known as one of the “Fathers of the Internet,” Cerf is the co-designer of the TCP/IP protocols and the architecture of the Internet. He has served in executive positions at MCI, the Corporation for National Research Initiatives and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency and on the faculty of Stanford University. Vint Cerf served as chairman of the board of the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) from 2000-2007 and has been a Visiting Scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory since 1998. Cerf served as founding president of the Internet Society (ISOC) from 1992-1995. Cerf is a Fellow of the IEEE, ACM, and American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the International Engineering Consortium, the Computer History Museum, the British Computer Society, the Worshipful Company of Information Technologists, the Worshipful Company of Stationers and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. He currently serves as Past President of the Association for Computing Machinery, chairman of the American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN) and completed a term as Chairman of the Visiting Committee on Advanced Technology for the US National Institute of Standards and Technology. President Obama appointed him to the National Science Board in 2012. Cerf is a recipient of numerous awards and commendations in connection with his work on the Internet, including the US Presidential Medal of Freedom, US National Medal of Technology, the Queen Elizabeth Prize for Engineering, the Prince of Asturias Award, the Tunisian National Medal of Science, the Japan Prize, the Charles Stark Draper award, the ACM Turing Award, Officer of the Legion d’Honneur and 25 honorary degrees. In December 1994, People magazine identified Cerf as one of that year’s “25 Most Intriguing People.” Quotes “There was something amazingly enticing about programming,” said Cerf. “You created your own universe and you were master of it. The computer would do anything you programmed it to do. It was this unbelievable sandbox in which every grain of sand was under your control.” “The internet is a reflection of our society and that mirror is going to be reflecting what we see.If we do not like what we see in that mirror the problem is not to fix the mirror, we have to fix society.” “Science fiction does not remain fiction for long. And certainly not on the Internet.” “I’d like to know what the Internet is going to look like in 2050. Thinking about it makes me wish I were eight years old.” CH 9+ AI, LA the Next Billion Users | Vint Cerf | Talks at Google printable version
Content One Minute before 12: Understanding The Global ModelWhat is exponential growth?Next EventClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureWageningen UR – Food ProjectsRecommended Book: One: The New Abundant Energy Revolution & The Power of YouChanges in demographyFuturist Portrait: Sundeep WaslekarAgenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Club of Amsterdam 2002-2012 The Club of Amsterdam would like to thank you for 10 years inspiring activities! We would like to thank the members, speakers, moderators, helpers, writers, supporters, knowledge partners – in short: everybody that contributed to this continous exploration of preferred futures. The diversity and quality of the dialogues proves that there is a need – a need that is always also connected to the now. Starting our visions and strategies with ourselves, our environment, our society is essential when creating our future in a smart fashion and the future of generations to come – or simply a sustainable future for this planet! Join us at our Special Birthday event 10 Years Club of Amsterdam – Thursday, December 6, 18:30 – …! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman One Minute before 12: Understanding The Global Model By Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The following article is a very abbreviated extract of a much more comprehensive and complex model study – Effects of Political and Social Conditions; Demographics; Global Finance and Economy; Energy, Food and Fresh Water Production and Consumption; Environmental Effects (pollution, farmland erosion, weather pattern changes, and nuclear waste impacts). The study model was built by SCG in about 4 years of extensive research, extracted from tens of thousand of pages of published research materials, extensive real-time data sources, and hundreds of terabytes of global legacy computer data, provided by governments, global organizations (UN, World-Bank, IMF, etc.) and various free data sources through universities in the US, UK and Germany. Because of the space constraints of this publication, it is not possible to present the underlying data and correlated findings, much less to support them through extensive arguments, as we do normally in our reports. Nevertheless, this article was not built on opinions, but on well-tested probability models, sound mathematics and carefully selected data, verified and responsibly used. Furthermore, our research has focused on the future in order to better understand how the various problem areas cited in the previous paragraph would affect each other over time. This is rarely done with two or three problem fields, and almost never with the of this underlying report by SCG. One Minute before 12: The Consequence Era Human civilization has reached the most critical watershed period in its entire history so far. We refer to this period, 2010 – 2050, as the Consequence Era. It is the era in which we must deal with the consequences of unresolved inter-societal relations, misguided technological development, hyper-militarization of the world, and a dangerous neglect to manage environment and vital resources in a long-term perspective. Given that money and monetary instruments have become an artificial resource, especially in the past 300 years, this consequence also includes the results of our ill-designed global monetary system. Money all by itself, and how it is used in society, has created a severe scarcity that actually prevents us from solving all natural problems and promotes global conflict in an almost fully globalized world. It is therefore especially important to look at the economic conditions and transitions in order to understand the prospect of solving any other hard problems in the future, arising from the management of resources and production of vital supplies. Although this period actually began a few decades ago, we are only now being forced to deal with the harsh consequences of a phenomenon known as exponential change (unsustainable growth and decline patterns in human behavior, finance, economics, environmental impacts and global resources) – the core dynamics of the Consequence Era which together build a real and actual reality that either can be dealt with successfully now, or destroy us, or set us back severely in the short term (the next two to four decades). This is the critical and defining era where globalization has been nearly achieved and where the perfect storm of an outdated and crashing financial and economic system, an exponentially growing human population, greatly magnified by dangerous human consumption and other adverse behavior patterns, passes now the saturation point of environmental, economical and social sustainability. Earth’s inability to remain stable under the present pollution and abuse levels, or renew its natural resources in adequate abundance to allow a growth formula that we have come to expect, will force social and economic development backwards in ways not previously experienced by society. We are approaching the absolute limits for the first time in human history in nearly all vital dimensions. For the first time in our planet’s history, consumption has vastly outpaced supply of many vital resources to the point where we cannot replace certain critical resources for others who will come after us, or, in many cases even for ourselves. For example, for the first time in our planet’s history, we will likely have, in the very foreseeable future, full-scale wars for fresh water and food security (possibly as early as in this decade in some regions), in addition to the ongoing conflicts that are inspired by the exponentially growing need for energy and farming resources. In a former time where only mostly defenseless and voiceless nations in Africa or other less developed regions in the world would run out of food and water, this was only a matter of a News TV program filler or some article in a weekly magazine. But when more developed, militarized nations will run out of food, water or energy, it will become a violent global conflict. This will occur soon. Additionally, religious-dogmatic tensions between whole blocks of nations seem to further complicate the already problematic dialogue. Real needs and dogmatic agendas become confused to the point that coherent action amongst these nations is now seemingly impossible. Nevertheless, the global community must now begin to look at the statistical and mathematical models that show clearly that the world, as we know it, is in line for a period of potentially dramatic socioeconomic upheavals, based on the laws of supply and demand and diminishing returns. We have entered the Consequence Era on earth and we will break entirely new ground as a result of the need to change or, if we cannot manage these problems, we will become greatly reduced or even extinct as a human race. This is not some futuristic horror scenario; this is with us today now, and must be dealt with now, and not in some distant future. Now is the moment when we must carefully look at the mathematical evaluation of how all these factors will affect each other over time. We must set aside complacency as well as political or dogmatic belief, analyze the empirical evidence, and connect those critical dots. There is no more time for opinions, only for science and hard mathematical models, to understand the true reality. We must act accordingly. The solutions to these problems are in some cases unsettling, because they require drastic changes in our behavior and consumption patterns and drastic changes in how we define technological progress in the future. It also requires drastic change in how we organize the world in terms of finance and economic systems. The current systems will prevent us from solutions, not promote them. This realization must also constitute an invitation to world leaders, responsible decision makers, corporate heads and global thinkers to come together now, and to work on urgent solutions immediately, to preserve the continuation of human civilization in a sustainable, dignified and peaceful way. We must do this now, because we are out of time! The Dimensions of Irrational and Single-Minded Finance, Economy, Socio-Psychology, Environment, Geopolitics, Energy and Irresponsible Resource Exploitation The world continues its historic irresponsible economic behavior, dogmatic conflicts, the exponential consumption of the world’s inexpensive energy supply, and its shortsighted depletion of key environmental resources. These factors are all interconnected and dependent upon one another for overall sustainability – something that is now well beyond the failure point. Many of these problems will remain unresolved into the 2025-2030 time frame; however, humanity will have likely suffered so much internal and global conflict by then that a global renaissance of cooperation will potentially bring about a condition in which solutions will become possible. Building and Calculating Global Problem Models Global development is influenced by a multitude of external factors. For example, economic development is part of a global ecology that includes many factors, typically not considered by economists, such as the vital internal and external resource management, national and geopolitical stability, potential food and water shortages or other issues of basic sustainability. What must be considered in a complete model, and why the answers to these questions are vital to make proper decisions and, more importantly, accurate planning projections is illustrated in the following example:Let us look at local fresh water supplies at a given location in the energy-environmental problem context (known effects from observed environmental input-factors), and evaluate them under the constraints of economic cost and activity; then inject them as some of the input factors that affect the ‘Fresh-Water-Model’, and then map the results, how they affect our complete global model. Here we can now find just a very small sample of the many elements of our input components, relating to the above constraints: What will be the impact of forecasted 1) spikes in extreme seasonal temperatures and 2) the increased frequency of long, intense heat waves on water consumption rates and the availability of freshwater drinking supplies? How do these factors relate to water delivery cost? How will natural gas drilling and the rapid expansion of shale gas fracking (hydraulic fracturing drilling operations) impact local aquifers, groundwater, rivers, lakes and the quality of freshwater resources used as drinking water supplies? When will they run out, and what is the expense, at what timeframe, to replace them? How much water will be diverted from already critical drinking water supplies for shale gas fracking operations? What is the likelihood of a conflict (similar to the ‘food vs. fuel’ confrontation that occurred with ethanol) between those who wish to safeguard water supplies for food production and safe drinking-water purposes vs. those who propose to draw off large volumes of water for hydraulic fracturing to produce shale gas? Who is going to make the rules, and with what consequence? What will be the economic consequences, and when? How will exceptionally long heat waves coinciding with scientifically predicted water shortages, impact the availability of water supplies for suppression of predicted wildfires? How will these growing patterns of wildfires impact the environment further, and therefore cause economic consequences? What will be the impact of prolonged heat waves on water supplies for crop irrigation? What will be the economic cost of these counter measures, and how will they affect food prices? How will predicted water shortages, combined with predicted intense heat waves, impact agricultural productivity, food supplies and food prices? Who will go hungry, and what will they do to change this? Will more terrorism be the answer? Wars? What will become the true cost of food and water, when we include these security and economic issues? How will all of this affect the geopolitics of energy? Will hurricanes and other extreme weather events (like Hurricane Sandy in 10/2012) jeopardize the security and quality of safe drinking water supplies and add further to water shortage pressures? How will this affect the cost of water and the cost of energy to provide it? How will prolonged high intensity heat waves impact the availability of water for hydroelectric power production? Will some of these hydropower facilities be retired? (Example Hoover Dam Power Plant in Nevada) How will prolonged high intensity heat waves affect the availability of secure supplies of water used to cool nuclear powerplant reactors and prevent meltdowns? Is Fukushima only a warning of much more to come, given that there are more than 500 Nuclear Power plants operating with the same outdated and deeply flawed design (Fukushima) in seismic active areas of the world? What will be the cost to replace them, and when? Will water shortages affecting nuclear and hydroelectric power plants result in accelerated emissions of greenhouse gases as coal-fired and other fossil-fuel-fired power plants are brought online to replace the loss of power supplied from water-short nuclear and hydroelectric power generation units? (A negative chain reaction of more flawed decisions to answer the short-term problem with the price of medium and long-term negative consequences) How will forecasted water supply shortages affect electric power supplies, power plant reserve margins, outage rates, grid reliability and electricity prices? Will water scarcity cause economic disruption and a surge of refugees migrating into already populated areas unprepared for population spikes? How will forecast underestimates affect the magnitude of water shortage impacts? The short list above illustrates just one of many starting points in the discussion of a holistic model, and demonstrates the many input factors that are necessary to build proper models that hold up for the range of planning and forecasting inclusive periods. To manage the world properly in the short and medium term, we must be looking into the future with hard data by at least three to four decades, and therefore incorporate all observed or identified medium-term complexities. However, long-term sustainability models should look into the future by at least 100 to 300 years, to force us to think in terms of preservation of this planet for our children, and generations to come. We need to develop global ethics and global responsibility.Let us return to the mapping of sustainability models. The initial list of 8 critical input dimensions to a Global Master Model is as follows: 1. Monetary and economic systems and their critical debt sustainability issues2. Governmental/Political trends, conflicts, dogmatic and religious dynamics3. Corporations and their behavior impacts under missing global regulations4. Energy production, global energy economics, and critical conflicts5. Interconnected Farmland, Food and Water factors and their sustainability6. Environmental Impacts, pollution, weather and habitation consequences7. Human overpopulation and its interconnected demographic behavior effects8. Security; cyber-terror; terrorism as the emerging form of ‘political discourse’ Each of these 8 sub-models has cause and effect on every other sub-model in the list. When we evaluate one factor against another, we often cannot determine the outcome; either not precisely, or in many cases not at all. In such case we must record all potential outcomes, and rank them by probability. Our central or most likely model (Prime-Model) is composed of all the factors with the highest probability rating. Nevertheless, each junction of evaluation must be reevaluated each time when new data becomes available. Every time we update any outcome to be likely different from the last calculation requires recalculating the entire Master-Model (The Prime Model and all Sub-Models). It is useful to track many potential Prime-Models in parallel and observe them concurrently. It is also absolutely critical that each model “lives” in a real-time world, where data is continuously added in real-time and the model is recalculated continuously, as data changes. This must be done for the most likely Prime-Model, and all concurrent models. It is therefore also important to track all data sources continuously as a time-series. As a consequence, we elevate the result-density and enable stochastic analysis that can alert us to potentially false results, erroneous data, but also alert-trigger-points and value changes of concern. Preferably, we operate as many parallel models as possible to understand the full range of potential outcomes. These ranges in our Master-Model are the expected ‘corridor of projected behavior’. When we begin to carefully prune the underlying models of most factors of improbable results by use of trained AI tools, we begin to slowly unmask the expected future reality. What this future reality likely holds in store for us is outlined now below: Exponential Changes: The Primary Cause For Critical Societal Crisis Overpopulation, Farmland, Water and Food It took millions of years for the world population to reach 1 billion – having done so in about 1804. It then took only another 123 years to reach two billion, due to the industrialization of the planet – and since 1960 it is growing by one billion almost every 12 years; a staggering, exponential rate of increase in human population and devastating global resource drawdown. The US Census Bureau estimates a global population of 8 billion by 2027 – a 14.3% increase over the current figure, and we are already operating in a zone of unsustainability. Beginning in the 1950’s, an unsustainable exponential consumption trend on earth began and has not stopped, but has further accelerated ever since. The net result of this rise in human numbers has lead to exponential growth in demand for our planet’s finite resources, namely the supply of energy, the stress on the environment and the knock-on effect to the world’s economies. At the same time, these consumption trends are causing a depletion of those resources – a simple fact of math that is indisputable. We know that we cannot preserve, indefinitely, exponential growth of anything for which there is a finite supply. It is also this fact, that all global problems have local effects and vice-versa. Globalization is irreversible, and therefore any regional governmental and industrial decision maker must understand the global implications to understand what the local challenges may be. We have reached the tipping point where the ballooning population has met the peak of developed energy supplies and a declining supply of arable land for farming. This is now an empirical fact, and has very hard and definite consequences. As everything we do on earth requires energy to fulfill our existence, energy is becoming more scarce and soon, within the next two or three years (by 2015); at least carbon-based energy will be unaffordable to many on the planet, including small and medium farmers, who will be unable to harvest crops from their fields at a price that the market will bear on their scale of market accessibility, and who will therefore soon be forced to yield to large farming corporations that have the ability to compensate these effects and manipulate markets more effectively. But even then, food prices will increase dramatically over the next decades, becoming a scarce lead-commodity and a new element of global conflict (wars for oilfields will soon move on to wars for farmland or fresh water resources). In developed nations, each citizen is responsible on average for the consumption of a staggering 30+ tons of food, water, minerals and energy resources from the environment per year. The UN estimates that 25% of the world’s farmland is heavily degraded by now. China and India are modernizing at a rapid rate, thus placing an even greater strain on the global environment. In fact, both China and India are buying farmland at a record pace in nations where corrupt government leaders gamble away national resources for personal gains. In the upcoming farmland scarcity, these behaviors will intensify conflict hotspots in these nations in the future (Africa, South America, Eastern Europe, etc.). We estimate that the world will need to double its food production by 2046 to feed the projected population (assuming that no substantial destruction of human life occurs before). Even with the advance of technology at near exponential rates, we will not see science provide the solution to these problems. War for food and a new wave of terrorism will be the outcome. The argument by some that we can feed comfortably 7 billion to 10 billion on this planet, because we throw so much food away in the most fertile regions of the world, is, under current and near-future technologies, a myth, because we do not have the means of economical distribution (energy price constraints through conserving, and transport or perishability constraints). With only 9.6% of the land on earth suitable for farming and another 37.4% for farm animals/grazing, about half of earth land mass is currently unsuitable for any type of agricultural activity. But the model is continuously shifting negatively. In the last 25 years, the US alone has converted more than 41 million acres of farmland into residential and commercial property – a trend that is consistent with all other developed economies in the world: exponentially expanding demand, while shrinking the available resource to satisfy it. In addition, dust erosion of farmland due to the accelerating effects of global warming will further curtail the available farmland in many regions of the world. Just in the past three years, the world lost 2.2% farmland, and the loss is accelerating. But we need more farmland, not less. Water is an important context to farming. Here are just some contextual facts to illustrate our points: In the last 10 years, global demand for fresh water has spiked 58%; demand for residential, agricultural and industrial purposes are all exponentially increasing. Almost half of India’s energy is spent pumping water from deep in aquifers to the surface for its eventual uses, mostly farming. The price of energy is therefore paramount for India’s food production. Over 713 gallons of water go into the production of one cotton T-shirt 1,000 gallons of water are required to produce 1 gallon of milk. Global water use: Agriculture 70%, Industry 20%, Domestic use 10%. It is easy for any person with an average education to understand that we have an untenable existence at the current pace of consumption multiplied by the rate of population expansion. This is an empirical fact. It is a near certainty that we are now entering a new era of resource dependence where the probability within this decade, we will likely see armed conflict over fresh water supply. This will become a trend for which the frequency and scale will become greater and outpace those of oil or democracy. Under these conditions, the overpopulation problem will produce many extreme views and behavior amongst individuals, societies, organizations and governments. Debt will expand; available resources will become more scarce; life necessities will become extremely expansive, and all, because of overpopulation problems. We will actively think about how population can be reduced, and fast. Population-reducing events will become less unpopular. Human ethics will suffer dramatically in the next two decades, as human existence will be viewed as a burden to the planet. Many will look the other way when genocide occurs in the future. Being alive on this planet will become soon a privilege, not necessarily a right. Unthinkable today, but reality tomorrow. This transformation of mindset has already started. Economy and Finance In reports we published in April of 2010 we repeatedly stated that the economic crisis of 2008-2009 was simply a mild and early marker of what is to come now and beyond at a much larger, more sustained scale and of greater consequence. Over the past decades, Western governance has committed serious errors in its economic planning and fiscal policies. The results are a dependency on accelerated deficit spending and an enormous accumulation of external debt – neither of which is sustainable. These ill policies have been exported throughout the world over the past decades, and has become the “state of the art” everywhere. All central banks of countries around the world have adopted the western methods of money creation and debt. To understand the severity of the global economic condition, we must look at the world’s lead economy, that of the United States, and understand that the negative trigger effect will overshadow the world, including, for some time, even China, as it is busy to unwind its financial dependency on the west. Today, the US is basically bankrupt; its finances are beyond the point of no return. This is an empirical fact under any accounting scenario, even the most sympathetic one. The debates in the past years over the debt ceiling only serves to obscure this painful fact. The first downgrade of American debt in history by Standard & Poor’s to AA+ over a year ago (August, 2011) is seeping into the general consciousness of an intractable budgetary predicament. The only scenario from here on is default by the U.S. government, and / or significant devaluation of the dollar – this will happen regardless of further modifications to the debt ceiling. As a strong-armed global policy maker and military superpower, the US is getting away with its reckless financial policies a little longer than others might. Most global financial manipulators and players are US based firms, and most financial media is also based or at least rooted there. Therefore, a more sympathetic view of its situation is prevailing in the overall assessment of the current situation. Nevertheless, one must understand that the debt of the US is neither repayable, under today’s dollar value, nor is it much more extendable. The absolute saturation and tipping point is reached within the next 36 months, but more likely within the next 6 to 10 months from the time this article is published. The US is bankrupt as a country, and bankrupt as a people collectively, as the following numbers will clearly illustrate: By early 2012, the total public debt equates to about US$47,000 per US citizen, or US$130,000 per taxpayer. It’s also obvious just why the US debt keeps increasing. So far this year the government has spent over US$3.6 trillion, but only taken in US$2.2 trillion in taxes. The fact to note here is that less than a tenth of that tax income derives from business revenue, and this has further social implications in the future, as we will discuss later in this section. The US is spending over US$700 billion annually on its military and over US$213 billion on interest. It now owes foreign countries over US$5 trillion, equivalent to about four-fifths of the total public debt when George W Bush came to power in 2000. Then, the US public debt was actually coming down. President Bush initially forecast further surpluses of around US$300 billion a year until 2004, before the September 11 attacks, and two rounds of tax cuts changed everything. By the end of 2012, the US government estimates that public debt will surpass GDP for the first time in the country’s history. It is currently at about 98 percent. Countries whose debt outstrips GDP include Italy, Ireland and Japan, the last one having a debt to GDP ratio of 195 percent. In 2004, at the height of the Iraq War, the US public debt was increasing by around $12,000 a second. In 2008, as the international financial crisis was just kicking in, this had rocketed to around $25,000 a second and now it is much beyond even that figure. The debt situation of the US is similar or worse in several statistical categories than that of Greece, Spain or Ireland. The only difference is that the US is a military superpower that is manipulating its view about itself through heavy “perception engineering” and extensive marketing through US media conglomerates. Americans’ personal debt situation is no better than the government’s, owing a staggering US$16 trillion on things like mortgages and credit cards. All sources combined, Americans owe on average about US$176,066 for every man, woman and child living in America. That is a staggering US$668,413 per family, compared to an average of US$6,898 in savings per family. This enormous debt will eventually have real social and geopolitical consequences. The greatest nightmare to the fragile and ultimately hopeless US situation, however, is not so much its internal crisis, but the export of its unsustainable policies to the entire world, especially Europe, which has since the early 1970s followed the US lead and sank its economies and individual citizens into a similar situation. Due to the more vulnerable construct of the EU, and the ill constructed and flawed Euro currency, this system is now set to fail first, at least officially, and cause a deadly domino effect for the entire global monetary system. In the midst of the debt crisis, the U.S. will undergo the greatest strain to its cohesion as a single country since the civil war two centuries ago. It will not only lose its global status and leading model of governance and lifestyle, it will internationally become more and more ignored. Social tensions will test the breaking-point of the American union. And, even as this sounds very dramatic from the perspective of today’s world picture, the outcome of these social tensions have a number of possible consequences that include international isolationism similar to the pre-World War I era, and a potential break-up into as many as 3 or 4 separate entities. We project China will overtake the U.S. economy in 2016. A good share of the U.S. economy has become devoted to a high level of military spending and maintaining the country’s government debt. In contrast, China has relatively little debt, relatively low military spending (2.2% of GDP versus 4.7% in the USA) and is investing in the country’s prosperity. This disparity will accelerate the passing of power between these two countries. Unlike Europe, the U.S. will be faced with the added transition of an ethnic and consequently cultural shift towards a Hispanic society. Hispanics tend to prefer working in small companies as opposed to big corporations, and prefer working in small manufacturing and trade. The U.S. will start acting like a Hispanic society, and will have stronger ties with Latin America than with the East or West. Trends in Europe The end of the Western financial model extends from New York to Frankfurt. Europe also suffers from U.S. fractional reserve-style banking and high debt levels. In the U.S. bankruptcy is being revealed by the debt ceiling limit; in the Eurozone, it is revealed by the discrepancy between the currency area and the political integration that has been a hallmark of the European project in the last few decades. Although there is a single currency for most of its geographic area, debt is issued by governments, not by the European Union. By now, the debt crisis we predicted has already severely affected Greece, Spain, Italy, Ireland, France and Portugal. At this point downgrades of banking and governmental debt has begun, and economic downturns have affected nearly every European nation, either as debtor or as creditor, but equally negatively. Europe further suffers from the costs of a demographic transition towards a higher average age and a diminishing young population in several countries. There are not fewer people, but the age groups are shifting towards retirement and less productivity. Geopolitical Consequences The final outcome of this transition is that both Asian and European interests will fade in the next two decades to the point that US military installations will be abandoned in these regions, and erected in countries to the south, if there is even a coherent US foreign policy in place at that point, and funds available to support it. Unclear at this point, however, is how US corporate power players will maneuver their interests under these transitions. Given that corporations are highly mobile, efficient in reinventing themselves, and innovative in infiltrating any society on any level, it is to be expected that many US corporate super powers will leave the burned-out US markets and reappear as Brazilian, Indian, Turkish, Chinese, Malaysian or Singaporean powers, using the high mobility of assets, money and global nations’ resource controls as tools to maintain super power indefinitely. Most major multinational corporations have already prepared for a resource based value system that can survive even when currencies collapse due to their own volatilities. This element of US corporation transitions will actually be the accelerating factor of the US decay, because a broad recognition of the financially collapsing US will force them to fully abandon the US and Euro zones and move all remaining activities to better pastures, as corporations do not have any constraints of national citizenship or loyalty to their citizens to provide jobs or sustainability. This factor will accelerate the jobless numbers especially in the US, and further depress their tax income. The corporations are in fact the new nations of the world, and as they accelerate in dominance, whereas the nations of the past (countries) will become very vulnerable to decay. Corporations can also selectively choose whom they will arm and to whom they will sell weapons, to support their imperialistic agendas. This transition process will stay mostly undetected for the most part of the next 10 to 15 years, because the world is still very much focused on the nation and still maintains the belief that Presidents and Prime Ministers manage the world, and not corporations. By the time this “new world order” under corporate leadership becomes broadly recognized, the corporate culture will be so interwoven into the nations’ legal, commercial and even defense and security systems that it will become very complicated to separate and regain control of the world under a traditional system of governance. By that time a broad trend of privatization will have weakened the nations around the world to a point, where they cannot regain power, except through revolution. Such privatization will include the justice system (example: American Prison Corporation, which owns and operates many State Prisons in the US) and the military (example: the Blackwater Corporation, which supplied a substantial force for the US war in Iraq and Afghanistan). We predict, that corporations will lobby governments to censor the internet and social media and filter the anti-corporate emerging messages, but that the continued and widening multinational corporate dominance will eventually trigger widespread revolutions, at latest by 2022 to 2025, and the pressure of the people, lead by some nations that are not easily manipulated by corporate power, will force a power-compromise that will perhaps create a tolerable balance at that point between corporate and human interests. Other Geopolitics As we predicted often in years past (2007 and 2010), the conflicts of the future will be ones of social unrest revolving around the lack of the availability of the basic economic necessities for human existence: affordable food, water and fuels. This has now started not just across the Arab world, in Syria, Libya, Egypt, but also across England and Israel during August 2011. We believe that this wave of social unrest will continue to spread throughout the world in the years to come with increasing intensity, as more pressing problems develop. Again, this social unrest comes exactly as we predicted in 2010. The wave of social unrest that will continue to sweep the world will affect China, but in a way that is somewhat disconnected from their economic process. The current police state will slowly fade away, as we have seen happen in Shanghai. The government is extremely active in staying on top of political and social developments in the world, in order not to lose the relative peacefulness in their own country. The Chinese government will, however, not hesitate in the future to make a point with a second ‘Tiananmen like event’, if deemed necessary. From 2025-2030 onwards, the world will be sobered by ongoing waves of deep crisis, and ready for a global renaissance. Just as Europe built out of the ashes of the world wars a period of unprecedented peace, so Asia and the rest of the world will be ready to experience a new age of enlightenment. The meaning of globalization will have gone from being what everyone can steal from himself throughout this planet, to discovering how we can live together, on a global scale, in peace. However, environmental devastating consequences, and a necessary new arrangement of complex resource patterns in unprecedented global cooperation will be the bitter pill of this renaissance. The Big Picture and Likely Outcomes What we end up with in the final analysis is best summarized with the following: Even so the problems ahead are unique in type, scale and consequence, they still produce familiar responses in people and societies. They usually come in 10 very familiar and reoccurring stages: 1. First there is irresponsible exuberance and reckless behavior, mostly motivated by power and monetary gains that lead to major systemic problems and, ultimately, to crisis. 2. When the negative effects of these problems occur and become evident, society goes in denial about them, demonizes and even incarcerates those that bring these problems to attention and push for solutions. 3. Next is a phase of broad recognition by large portions of society that these problems are real and that it is potentially too late to solve them. There is a first ‘coming to terms with the consequences’ by the majority of leaders in society. 4. Now the blame-game of those in power begins, and potential solutions become part of endless political debate. 5. At this stage broad recognition gives away to fear. The reach for religion, which results in a paralyzed state of societies’ ‘middle management’ and, furthermore, leads to the inability to act responsibly, manage the crisis on hand, or try to prevent additional problems from escalating. 6. Fear turns into hyper fear, erases normal behavioral barriers, then promotes high levels of aggression and finally escalation into full conflict. 7. Conflict rages until the input factors for the state of fear are erased. 8. Society, or what is left of it, takes stock of where they are, what they have just done, and what they have lost. 9. Society is now ready to deal with the problem in a sober and analytical way, create visionary laws and regulations, and begins the long and hard road to recovery. 10. Society is now ready for renaissance and an era of great accomplishments, until stage 1 reoccurs again, usually at the peak of stage 10. Currently, we are somewhere between stage 2 and 3. Stage 10 will fall into a time-window between 2025 and 2035, depending on how we get to it. There are two roads to get there: One is immediate commitment by all society to put politics aside and embrace advanced technology as a problem-solving strategy for all of society, and not as a strategy of monetary gain for a few. The other road is severe global conflict on many levels, until the problems or their input factors are removed, including the prime input factor, “overpopulation”. The first road will lead to developing a technological solution of sustainable coexistence with many humans on the planet. The second road will lead to brutal reduction of the world’s population by a substantial margin. It is now time to choose which way we wish to go. Hardy F. Schloer is a speaker at the 10 Years Club of Amsterdam event. What is exponential growth? “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.” – Prof. Al Bartlett Albert A. Bartlett is Professor Emeritus in Nuclear Physics at University of Colorado at Boulder. He has been a member of the faculty of the University of Colorado since 1950. He was President of the American Association of Physics Teachers in 1978 and in 1981 he received their Robert A. Millikan Award for his outstanding scholarly contributions to physics education. Dr. Bartlett has given his celebrated lecture, Arithmetic, Population and Energy over 1,600 times. His collected writings have been published in the book, “The Essential Exponential! For the Future of Our Planet”. 10 Years Club of Amsterdam Our Season 2012/2013 starts with the 10th Anniversary event of the Club of Amsterdam. We are looking forward seeing you at10 Years Club of AmsterdamThursday, December 6, 18:30Location: India House Amsterdam, Spuistraat 239, 1012 VP Amsterdam The Club of Amsterdam is going to promote and discuss ideas, statements, observations and solutions for five areas that are considered key challenges by Schloer Consulting Group. The main characteristics are exponential changes – the primary cause for critical societal and economic crisis: demography, energy, environment, food, water, overpopulation, … With Aleksandra Parcinksa, Andreas van Engelen, Andrei Kotov, Arjen Kamphuis, Diana den Held, Felix B Bopp, Hardy F. Schloer, Hedda Pahlson-Moller, Huib Wursten, Humberto Schwab, Job Romijn, John Grüter, Kwela Sabine Hermanns, Maartje van Buuren, Oebele Bruinsma, Patrick Crehan, Peter van Gorsel, Raj Jagbandhan, Robert Shepherd and many more … … and entertainment, drinks and food …. The event is supported by India House Amsterdam. We are in the middle of a fantastic brainstorm that leads to the anniversary event … and you are invited to contribute to our Public Brainstorm! Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Public Brainstorm: Economic-Demographic CrisisPublic Brainstorm: EnergyPublic Brainstorm: EnvironmentPublic Brainstorm:Food and WaterPublic Brainstorm: Human Overpopulation News about the Future HIV diagnosis for poor countries Scientists have come up with a test for the virus that causes AIDS that is ten times more sensitive and a fraction of the cost of existing methods, offering the promise of better diagnosis and treatment in the developing world. The test uses nanotechnology to give a result that can be seen with the naked eye by turning a sample red or blue, according to research from scientists at Imperial College in London. Professor Molly Stevens, who led the research: “Our approach affords for improved sensitivity, does not require sophisticated instrumentation and it is ten times cheaper.” Mechanism found for destruction of key allergy-inducing complexesResearchers have learned how a man-made molecule destroys complexes that induce allergic responses — a discovery that could lead to the development of highly potent, rapidly acting interventions for a host of acute allergic reactions. The study, published online Oct. 28 in Nature, was led by scientists at the Stanford University School of Medicine and the University of Bern, Switzerland. The new inhibitor disarms IgE antibodies, pivotal players in acute allergies, by detaching the antibody from its partner in crime, a molecule called FcR. (Other mechanisms lead to slower-developing allergic reactions.) “It would be an incredible intervention if you could rapidly disconnect IgE antibodies in the midst of an acute allergic response,” said Ted Jardetzky, PhD, professor of structural biology and senior investigator for the study. It turns out the inhibitor used by the team does just that. A myriad of allergens, ranging from ragweed pollen to bee venom to peanuts, can set off IgE antibodies, resulting in allergic reactions within seconds. The new inhibitor destroys the complex that tethers IgE to the cells responsible for the reaction, called mast cells. Severing this connection would be the holy grail of IgE-targeted allergy treatment. Wageningen UR – Food Projects Wageningen UR ‘To explore the potential of nature to improve the quality of life’. That is the mission of Wageningen UR (University & Research centre). A staff of 6,500 and 10,000 students from over 100 countries work everywhere around the world in the domain of healthy food and living environment for governments and the business community-at-large.The strength of Wageningen UR lies in its ability to join the forces of specialised research institutes, Wageningen University and Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences. It also lies in the combined efforts of the various fields of natural and social sciences. This union of expertise leads to scientific breakthroughs that can quickly be put into practice and be incorporated into education. This is the Wageningen Approach. The domain of Wageningen UR consists of three related core areas: Food and food production Living environment Health, lifestyle and livelihood Food Projects Searching for evidence of nutritional fibres to combat fluFood producers need hard evidence before they are allowed to make claims on their packaging about products improving people’s health. Jurriaan Mes from Wageningen UR (University & Research centre) is joining forces with eight companies, four research institutes and four universities to look into this. The EU is funding the research.We already know that the immune system reacts to polysaccharides. The body’s immune response to intruders is often aimed at the sugar chains on the outside of bacteria and fungi. The immune system recognises bacteria from a specific sugar chain and prepares itself for the attack. sCore as an aid to innovationInnovation without the Internet would be unthinkable these days. The Internet provides a wealth of essential sources! Choose any keyword you like, and you’ll generate million of hits with one click of your mouse. But this is also the weakness of most regular search engines: you get too much information, making it difficult to select and compare the relevant hits. sCore can help you compile a purpose-built overview of recent information sources to match your specific business profile New market-oriented sustainable protein conceptsProteins are important for our health. Meat and fish are an important source for these proteins, but they require a lot of raw materials and are therefore not sustainable. The aim of this project is to stimulate the development of new sustainable protein alternatives. Four sub-projects are described: ‘new market opportunities for meat substitutes’ which looks at opportunities, barriers and alternatives at the market level, 2) ‘revaluation of beans’ in which production and processing of beans is stimulated and in which is explored what new products can be make from beans, 3) ‘healthy fish-alternatives’ and finally 4) ‘the promotion of sustainable protein alternatives. Working towards a 50 percent drop in food wasteMore efficient use of resources and a considerable reduction of food waste in the food chain from field to fork. This is the aim of FUSIONS, a four-year European FP7 project involving universities, knowledge institutes, consumer organisations and businesses.Their ambition is to reduce food waste, by stimulating social innovations in feasibility studies, assessing monitoring methodologies, and developing policy guidelines for national and EU governments. Cater with CareFortified tasty foods for improving health among the sick and the elderly Malnourishment is a serious problem among patients and the elderly; one in every ten elderly people living at home is malnourished. On average, this figure is 17% for people in institutions, and a staggering 25% for hospital patients. The consequences of malnourishment of the elderly can be very serious: they are slower to recover from illness and operations, they have less resistance to disease and run an increased risk of complications. This can lead to a negative health spiral involving longer admissions, increased reliance on drugs and more complex care requirements. PEF nearly triples fruit juice shelf lifeAccording to WHO, consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables reduces the risk on chronic diseases. To support this healthy habit, Hoogesteger produces fresh juices and smoothies for the Dutch market.Food & Biobased Research transferred the PEF pilot set-up into a continuous Fresh Micro Pulse (FMP) process for (semi) fluids and supported the development and implementation of this method into Hoogesteger’s production process. Quality control and consumer tests were integrated in this project to maintain the products quality. FOVEA – Food Valley Eating AdvisorInfluencing human food choice in real life. The governments of the countries in the Western World are currently spending large amounts of money in campaigns promoting a healthier lifestyle.In spite of all this money, the effectiveness of these campaigns is rather low, and it is postulated that the effectiveness of the message will be larger when it is personalized. The incentive for the start of the FOVEA is to develop a system for personalized feedback to stimulate a healthier behavior. Recommended Book One: The New Abundant Energy Revolution & The Power of YouBy Ray Podder This book is a mashup of breakthrough renewable energy technologies, networked socioeconomic trends emerging from the sharing economy and timeless spiritual philosophies to examine how we got here and where we may be headed. All articulated with real world stories from the perspective of someone who has spent a career lifetime studying network behavior and motivating positive actions through information design. Beyond addressing only the technical and political issues, the book also gets to the root behaviors that now drive our energy scarcity based economic activities. It proposes a new framework and vision that views our energy and economics from a systemic network perspective. Expressed through both researched and documented evidence and philosophical essays connecting them to the human motivations that matter. The core concepts in the book looks at our use of energy from what is possible now, and it goes something like this:1. Make renewable energy into a free platform, using nano, bio, info and other emerging technologies. Too cheap to meter renewable energy technologies are real and available now, they just need accelerated innovation networks to make them accessible to all of us.2. Make it ubiquitously accessible to all without wires like how we transmit data signals. Unprecedented achievements in transfer efficiency are here. From induction charging to nano technology based wireless electricity solutions can transform the renewable energy landscape if only we could design a business model that rewards users for sharing rather than charging them for consuming.3. Accelerate innovation so no one has to depend on a job they don’t like to make a living. Distributed and collaborative co-creation environments are transforming everything from crowdsourcing innovation to raising startup capital. The next iteration of global economic systems will be built from network constructs that redefine wealth, access and consumption. Changes in demography Changes in demography: and its impact on jobs, the economy, talent acquisition & retention. By Huib Wursten, Tom Fadrhonc and Carel Jacobs Recently two EU leaders were clear about the solution for the economic crisis in the EU. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank: “Countries have to undergo significant structural reforms that would revamp growth,” Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti agreed and said: “Austerity is not enough, even for budgetary discipline, if economic activity does not pick up to a decent rate of growth” ( Economist, January 2012). This sounds logical, i.e. Growth is key. The only issue is: for growth you need demand for your goods and services and a competitive edge to provide them better and more efficiently than other suppliers. Which in turn require ongoing productivity improvements, and a steady market for labour and talent. In the years ahead the declining labour supply will make it challenging to find, attract and retain any level of labour, skilled and unskilled. The cause is that in the next 40 years the working polulation in the 27 member EU will decline by 25% or over 100 million workers. The decline in working population will become most visible through the gradual disappearance of the middle class. Not only in Europe but in the US as well. Thomas Friedman in his column in the New York Times of 20/10/2012 said: “The high wage, medium skilled jobs are over”. He quoted Stefanie Stanford, a senior education expert at the Gates foundation saying: “The only high wage jobs, whether in manufacturing or services, will be high skilled ones, requiring more and better education. The same observation was made by the Dutch newspaper “De Volkskrant” in its research into the structure of employment in the Netherlands. Their conclusion: “the economy will recover from the crisis sooner or later, but one tendency seems permanent: the middle class is shrinking.”…The phenomenon will manifest itself “by an increasing polarization of the labor market”, I.e. a steadily growing division between high end and low end jobs. The victims are predicted to be blue and white collar workers: factory workers and skilled labor on one hand, and office workers on the other hand. This trend is visible in the Netherlands, the USA as well in other European countries. De “Volkskrant” quoted figures from Eurostat: from 1998 till 2010 the share of Dutch employees with an average middle income shrank with 4.5% in favor of “low” and “high” paying jobs. In Sweden this was 8%, in Germany 6 % in France 9% and in the UK more than 10%. De Volkskrant: “Yet, the amount of jobs in the low pay echelon is growing”.i.e. Jobs that do not require a lot of education. Still, “while these jobs are simple for humans, they are not easily automated… “ On the other end professions like Doctors, lawyers, architects etc remain necessary and will continue to be in demand. In summary, the number of vacancies for low end jobs are increasing and high end jobs will remain stable and thus available. Filling these vacancies, however, is becoming more difficult. As an example, ASML in the Netherlands is looking for 1200 additional engineers. They are difficult to find in the Netherlands and so 50% of the applicants are from abroad. There are already 65 nationalities in the ASML HQ.” Possible Solutions: The solutions widely debated are improvements in labour productivity through re-schooling, technological improvements or outsourcing and byincreasing the official retirement age. In some European countries this is already reality. No doubt they have a valuable impact but these improvements cannot compensate 100 million workers. And sothe debate turns to immigration. Between the UN and the World Bank studies, it is estimated that the European Union would have to accept between 70 and 170 million new immigrants over the next 40 years in order to maintain its present levels of working and tax-paying population. The problem is that this is against the populist “mood” of the general population in many European countries. This could lead to growing tensions between elites and the broader population. While on the one hand the elite sees immigration in terms of the value they bring to the economy and whose daily contact with the immigrant population will be minimal, on the other hand the broader population will be confronted with immigrants’ different lifestyles and values and whose presence competes for jobs and puts pressure on wages, i.e. they are an influence that could lower wages. This development should not be underestimated as it could lead to tensions between the dominant ideas in the EU about economic growth and the issue of cultural stability. Europe is already the culturally most diverse continent of the world. What most EU countries have in common is acceptance of the rule of law, including human rights. Especially non western immigrants might not share the same values. But the shape of democracy in the different EU countries varies. Comparing for instance the Westminster model of the UK (2 strong political parties and the winner takes all) with the French presidential model (completely centralized) and the Dutch 4 C model (Consensus, Coalitions, Collegial administration and Co-optation) reflects this diversity. It will need a strong effort to introduce immigrants to the, sometimes implicit, values behind these systems. What is not helping is the claim by some that there is no such thing as, for instance, a Dutch culture. It is necessary to realize that cultures have characteristics that go back to the 17th century or before. These attributes are going beyond being offered a cookie with your tea, as Princess Maxima of the Netherlands stated. The research of Geert Hofstede can help in making everybody aware of the basic value dimensions per culture without being trapped in stereo types. Talent still key.Everybody agrees that the working population in Europe is declining. Naturally we can debate about solutions like outsourcing and productivity increases and while all the alternatives no doubt will be pursued with vigor, lets prepare for the fact that in spite of the efforts, the working population will decline to a degree. And more importantly, lets focus on the implication: When the working population declines……Workers/talent will be harder to find and more expensive to recruit and retain. And the more unique the worker, the harder the talent is to recruit, the greater the damage to us as a company, a region, an industry, a country.So, what strategies do we need to minimize the damage. Or better yet, what strategies should we pursue to gain a competitive advantage in this shrinking labour market. When the focus is low end workers with a basic manual and clerical skill level, we could easily hide and say such skills are easy to find and replace. Maybe so when we face an isolated instance, but when the problem is constant, we have to find structural solutions. And structural solutions imply attracting labour through immigration to overcome the lack of labour within our own borders. And attracting labour from different cultures and countries requires more than a job and money because every employer waves a job and money in front of prospective employees. To have a competitive advantage over competitors, you have to go beyond to make your company the one where new immigrant laborers want to be and work. And when you imagine the issues, coming from a strange place to establish a new economic future for your family while leaving behind the comforts of home, the answers are not so difficult. You want to be with an employer that provides: 1. Help with the immigration paperwork.2. Housing assistance.3. Assistance for spouses to find jobs.4. In company childcare.5. Decent health care benefits. For highly educated, talented employees who are hard to find even in a normal market, the search and retention challenges are even greater. It is harder to catch a fish when there are fewer fish in the pond and with more people fishing fewer fish, the fish become more expensive. And once you acquired them for a fat salary and signup bonus, they can still decide to move to your competitor for a better deal. So what are the strategies to secure an ongoing stream of high end specialized Talent? Again the answer is no so complicated. Following the fishing analogy, you want to be more visible in the ponds where you always fished, plus you want to start fishing in new ponds with ample fish. i.e. You want to strengthen relationships with the universities where you always recruited and have your management be more visible and make regular appearances. In addition it pays to establish relationships with knowledge centers in places with a talent surplus, with different demographics than ours in the aging developed countries. The countries where you focus depends on the specific talent you seek. It could be the Middle East, Pakistan, India, Eastern Europe. Building relationships with these target universities in different countries/markets is not complicated. Having key executives and managers visit the placement office, doing an occasional guest lecture, and making an appearance outside the times your company is invited to show up as part of some job fair, will have the effect that the universities recommend your company to their most talented graduates. Your company becomes a preferred brand/employer, which is the aim of the effort. In essence you want to be recruiting in countries with different demographics and economic prospects, i.e. in countries where there are more young graduates entering a labour market with fewer opportunities. Regardless what talent you need, it pays to build a strategy to secure a steady inflow. In a shrinking labour market that strategy is more essential than ever ….. …. whether you are a company, an industry, a region, or a country. Futurist Portrait: Sundeep Waslekar Sundeep Waslekar is President of Strategic Foresight Group, a think-tank based in India that advises governments and institutions around the world on managing future challenges. He has presented new policy concepts at committees of the Indian Parliament, the European Parliament, UK Houses of Commons and Lords, United Nations Alliance of Civilizations, League of Arab States, World Economic Forum (Davos meetings), among others. He has travelled to 50 countries for consultations with senior leaders. Sundeep Waslekar was educated at Oxford University, obtaining Bachelor of Arts in Philosophy, Politics and Economics in 1983. He was conferred D. Litt. (Honoris Causa) of Symbiosis International University, at hands of President of India, in December 2011. Sundeep has been involved in parallel diplomatic exercises to find common ground in times of crisis. Since the mid-1990s, he has facilitated dialogue between Indian and Pakistani decision makers and Kashmiri leaders, heads of Nepalese political parties, and post 9/11 between the leaders of Western and Islamic countries. He authored three books on governance in the 1990s – The New World Order, South Asian Drama, and Dharma-Rajya: Path-breaking Reforms for India’s Governance. Since 2002, he has authored several research reports on global future under the auspices of the Strategic Foresight Group, including The Blue Peace, Cost of Conflict in the Middle East, and An Inclusive World. In 2011, he co-authored a book of essays on global governance, Big Questions of Our Time. Sundeep Waslekar about Paradigm Shifts ” … Scientists such as Sir Martin Rees argue that the 21st […]