Content Dancing with Disruption – Forces Shaping the Future of BusinessThe Future Now Show London Event: Dancing with Disruption: The Future of BusinessClub of Amsterdam blog The Asian Square Dance – Part 8News about the Future: Free Heating / Forests for a sustainable futureDaring to invent the future of Africa: Kah WallaRecommended Book: Thinking the Twenty-First Century IBM Watson Health and the Future of HealthcareFuturist Portrait: David WoodAgenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. June is dedicated to the Future of Business: Rohit Talwar’s article about Dancing with Disruption – Forces Shaping the Future of Business Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show …. and join our event in London – June 23, 6:00 PM about Dancing with Disruption: The Future of Business Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Dancing with Disruption – Forces Shaping the Future of Business By Rohit Talwar, founder and CEO of Fast Future Research and Fast Future Publishing Venturing into uncertaintyOur world is being transformed by rapid advances in science and technology that are touching every aspect of our lives. We only have to look around us to see just how much can change in a relatively short space of time. So what changes could these developments bring about for life as we know it in the next ten years? What are the questions that these developments raise for businesses as they try to lay out their strategies for navigating an uncertain and rapidly evolving future? Below I take a brief look at ten scenarios exploring how some of these developments could come together and impact different aspects of our world. I also highlight brands and individuals that could play a significant role in shaping the future. I close with a discussion of ten questions that organisations are increasingly being forced to address as they try to prepare for the future of Business. Transformational developments on the horizonOur lives have been shaped by developments which most of us couldn’t have imagined a decade ago. For example, handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets now allow us to have live video conversations with our friends, translate instantaneously between multiple languages, watch full length videos and monitor diverse aspects of our health from blood pressure to oxygen flow and stress levels. 3D printing is now available in every home and is being used to create everything from blood cells to entire houses, while new aircraft such as the A380 can carry over 800 passengers on a single flight. As we look ahead, the decade could be shaped by advances in nanotechnology, information technology, vertical farming, artificial intelligence, robotics, 4D printing, super-smart materials, neuroscience, the biological sciences and genetics. Here are ten scenarios that we can see arising out of these developments: Human 2.0 – Human augmentation will accelerate in the next decade. By 2025 we will be witnessing a new breed of human 2.0 and 3.0 who have “hacked” their own bodies. Mind-enhancing drugs are already a reality and we can now have super-smart prosthetic limb replacements that have greater functionality than the ones we were born with. Both fields will continue to progress and we will see genetic treatments to eliminate conditions such as rage and obesity. All of these enhancements will be monitored and managed 24/7 by a variety of wearable technologies and devices implanted into our bodies. These will help us track every vital sign and link directly to both our own hand held devices and to monitoring services provided by our healthcare providers. 3D printing already allows us to create replacement body parts. The evolution to 4D printing will enable the manufacture of body parts that can self assemble and adapt their shape and properties over time – giving us limbs that could reinforce themselves as we age. National Sovereignty – The map of the globe will change – driven by economic forces. Many smaller and poorer countries may find it impossible to cope on their own with the accelerating pace of change and the cost of keeping up to speed with a globally connected planet. By 2025, we could see 20-25 country mergers as ‘at risk’ nations seek to come together to create the critical economic strength and attract the investment required to serve their populations and compete in the hyper-connected era. Corporate Giants – 50% of the Fortune 500 index of the largest publicly listed companies in 2025 will come from firms that were not even born in 2015. We will see an ever-increasing number of so called ‘exponential companies’ that achieve rapid rates of growth by using science and technology to disrupt old industries and create new ones. For example, the taxi app Uber didn’t even exist in 2008 and is now valued at over $40 billion while a number of new technology-based businesses such as AirBnB and Snapchat are already valued at over $10 Billion. Many more mega-growth players will emerge in sectors such as driverless cars, 3D and 4D printing, genetics and web-based applications and services that we can’t even imagine today. Some argue that the notion of public stock markets will have been transformed by more efficient online crowd funding platforms and the widespread use of digital currencies that effectively create a single global monetary system. Financial Services – By 2025, the financial services landscape will have been transformed by digital currencies like Bitcoin, blockchain technology, open markets and a wave of new providers offering crowd based solutions for everything from insurance to equity investment and commercial financing. These community platforms will let us lend to and invest in each other – bypassing the existing providers of saving, business investment, loans and personal insurance. Brain Uploading – By 2025 we will have mapped how the human brain works and technology companies will be competing to host the ‘back up’ of our brains online. Three major projects in Europe, the USA and China are currently involved in major research activities to understand how the brain stores information and memories. This will ultimately allow us to create memory back-ups with the information stored remotely via an online service provider in exactly the same way as many of us already do with the data on our computers and mobile devices. Immersivity – By 2025 technology advances will give rise to new immersive live and virtual leisure experiences. For example, we will be able to become participants in live action adventures games from Roman battles to re-running the Olympic 100 metres final with robots performing the roles of the other contestants. Mixed Reality Living – The boundaries between virtual and physical worlds will have disappeared by 2025 as we overlay multiple layers of digital sensory augmentation over our physical environment. Augmented and virtual reality will have advanced to the point where we can stimulate all our senses over the internet and via our handheld devices. So, for example, when booking a hotel, these developments would enable us to feel the bed linens, taste the food in the restaurant and smell the bath products – all from a device in the palm of our hands. Robotics – The replacement of humans by robots in manufacturing has been taking place for two decades – it is now spreading to a wide range of other sectors such elder care, crop spraying and warehouse management. By 2025 robots will have entered every aspect of human life and will be commonplace – performing functions as diverse as nursing, complex surgery, policing and security, through to construction, retail and hotel service roles. All of the major vehicle manufacturers are working on autonomous or driverless cars – a form of robot that we will see coming to market in the next few years. Artificial Intelligence – Breakthroughs is Artificial Intelligence (AI) are accelerating – with the development of computer software that has the capacity to mimic humans’ ability to learn and adapt over time to changing circumstances. AI is already in widespread use in applications such as satnav systems, aeroplane autopilots, assessing credit and loan applications in financial services, automated call centres and healthcare diagnoses. Advances in AI will gather pace in the next decade. For example, by 2025, the interfaces to all our devices from phones to computers, cars and home appliances will be highly intelligent and adaptive – learning from our behaviours and choices and anticipating our needs. Internet of Life – In the next decade upwards of 100 billion objects from smartphones to street lamps and our cars will be connected together via a vast ‘internet of everything’. This will impact every aspect of our lives – for example it could transform the criminal justice system. By 2025, evidence in a court case will include data taken from body worn cameras and microphones and sensors in everyday objects such as clothing, furniture and even our coffee cups – proving exactly what happened and who was present at the scene of a crime. Who are the Future Makers?The last twenty years has seen the emergence of ‘born digital’ innovators and entrepreneurs – who see every problem and opportunity as something that can be addressed by capturing the data and applying the right software algorithms. Hence ‘established’ players such as Google see no bounds to their ambitions – be that in Artificial Intelligence, driverless cars, or extending human life expectancy – they are investing heavily in these and many other areas. These new digital ‘masters of the universe’ believe no problem is beyond them – so Facebook believes it could transform healthcare and banking while Apple wants to provide the interface and ecosystem through which we manage our lives. Pioneers are emerging in sectors as diverse as food, housing and healthcare who believe they can deliver breakthroughs that will tackle fundamental human needs and challenges. Individuals like Elon Musk are stretching our imagination with his ventures in areas like colonising space and driverless green vehicles. In politics Syriza in Greece and the Pirate Party in Iceland are bringing fresh new ideas on how future economic systems might operate. Critical questions for businessIn the face of these developments, we see businesses increasingly wrestling with some fundamental questions that could shape medium to long term strategies: Automation and commoditization – How do we compete and make a profit in a world where automation and digitization are shortening business cycles, accelerating change, and driving the commoditization of many goods and services? Rising life expectancy – How do we manage and motivate a workforce that could span in age from 16 to 90 years as people’s life expectancy rises and they are forced to keep working to survive? Human augmentation – What’s the impact on our business and the commercial opportunity arising from people using scientific advances to enhance the performance of their brains and bodies? Resource management – How will we produce our products when scarce natural resources run out or are rationed? Exponential thinking – Can we transfer exponential thinking from the technology world to other domains to address the problems of scarcity from food and water to rare earth metals? Smart machines – How close is the day when smart technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) could replace almost our entire workforce? The automated enterprise – What could the fully automated company of tomorrow look like and who will buy our goods and services if technology is eliminating jobs at every level of the workforce? Tomorrow’s customer – If technology replaces humans in the workplace in ever-increasing numbers, how will they feed themselves and purchase goods and services? Will we need a universal basic income and how will it be funded? Rethinking the financial system – How might the nature of money and financial systems evolve – what impact could possible transformations have on our business? The Future of Business – What would be the driving purpose and societal role of business in a world being transformed by all these forces of change? None of these questions have simple or straightforward answers. The decisions we make will have diverse influences depending on our outlook on money, technology, humanity, and the role of business in society in the decade to come. This promises to be a challenging, exciting, developmental, and experimental decade as we learn and feel our way through to the strategies and models of the future. Rohit Talwar is a global futurist and CEO of Fast Future Research and Fast Future Publishing. He is the editor of The Future of Business which draws on the views of over 60 global future thinkers to explore how business could evolve over the next two decades. book The Future of Business The Future Now Show with Andreas Walker, Peter Cochrane and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show The Future of Business featuring Gray Scott, Founder and CEO of SeriousWonder.com, USARohit Talwar, CEO, Fast Future Research, UKKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USA The Future of Businessfocuses on the critical forces, trends, developments and ideas that could reshape the commercial environment and hence the strategy and operations of business over the next two decades. London Event: The Future of Business Event in London.Dancing with Disruption:The Future of Business June 23rd, 6.30pm – 9:30pmLocation:Osborne Clarke (Law firm of the year) – One London Wall, London, EC2Y 5EBA collaboration between Fast Future and the Club of Amsterdam with Rohit TalwarDancing in the Dark – The Future of Business Gray ScottThe Simulated Reality Singularity Gerd LeonhardRedefining the Relationship of Man and Machine featuringRohit Talwar, Gray Scott and Gerd Leonhard About the Book To receive a pre-publication discount of 30% please visit fastfuturepublishing.com and enter coupon code coa1 when prompted at checkout. The Future of Business is the first book in the FutureScapes series that draws on the latest rich and challenging insights, ideas and visions from over 60 contributing authors – established and emerging futurists, foresight researchers and future thinkers from around the world. The book focuses on the critical social and economic forces, business trends, disruptive technologies, breakthrough developments in science and new ideas that could reshape the commercial environment over the next two decades. It explores how these future factors could come together to force a fundamental rethinking of the purpose, strategy, business models, values and structures of organizations as they seek to survive and thrive in a rapidly changing reality. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy The Asian Square Dance – Part 8 By Michael Akerib, Vice-Rector SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY The economy Economists generally agree that the cumulative economies of China and India will be larger than that of the G7 by 2030. At present, China’s GCP stands at $9.2 trillion, or nearly 5 times that India. The two countries have taken very different economic paths. China has chosen to become an exporter of labor-intensive products while India still relies on agriculture and services, particularly in IT. Russia’s GDP at $2 trillion in 2013, and expected to shrink by 3 to 5% in 2015, less than a quarter of China’s. Russia is a raw material powerhouse and a manufacturing dwarf. As such it should be a natural supplier of oil and gas to China – it is a closer supplier than the Middle East. However, the pipeline that will be built across Siberia will deliver its goods to Nakhodka, a port facing Japan. Russia seems to fear that it will become dependent on China for its gas exports and that China will consider Russia as a vassal state and sideline it on the international scene as the disparities between the two countries grow. China has also to date not given a definite reply to the role Russian gas will play in its energy policy. Price is also an issue since China tends to compare the price of gas with that of domestic coal. While economists forecast that China’s GDP will overtake that of the US, it still has some way to go as US GDP stands at $15 trillion. By building its extremely large dollar reserves, $4 trillion, the Chinese Central Bank has allowed the US to borrow at very low interest rtes and has created a situation in which banks have searched for higher yields through lending massively to the housing market. The risk on the currency and on the value of US Treasury paper is extremely large. It is estimated that China holds over 6% of the US debt. China could, if it so wished, put pressure on the US economic system by buying less US debt, or even selling it, thus precipitating a fall in the dollar and an increase in interest rates. Reprisals from the US could come in the form of new barriers to trade for products made in China. Should there be a major economic recession in the US, with a consequent loss of jobs, the country may well turn to protectionism. The idea that the globalization process has been essentially beneficial to China will be a driver to reduce imports from that country. China is also worried that US government borrowing to cover its enormous deficit will lead to high inflation and that therefore the bonds held by the Central bank will lose value. The US has been putting considerable pressure for China to revalue its currency, the RMB, and thus reduce its competitive advantage based on cheap labor. Some economists, however, believe that a revaluation of the currency may well lead to precisely the opposite effect as funds may then float out of the RMB and into other currencies, thus leading to a de facto devaluation. The fall of the dollar has revaluated the RMB and thus made Chinese exports more expensive, hurting mostly privately-owned SMEs and halting the modernization process of the economy. The US could allow its currency to depreciate further, to the point where its goods would be significantly more competitive than they are today. China could take advantage of a weaker dollar to acquire assets denominated in dollars, whether in the US or in other countries. It has thus become a major lender and investor in South America – particularly in Ecuador, Nicaragua and Venezuela where it has committed to invest $250 billion over the next 10 years. This might well be the reason for the US to have softened its stance towards Cuba. China could also use its reserves to acquire major European corporations in the hope that they will out-compete US companies thus creating an economic war between the US and the EU. It could also use its vast financial reserves to hoard oil and uranium forcing prices of these products to reach new highs. China feels that the US administration under President Obama has not delivered on its pledge of including China, and other emerging countries, into major economic decisions. Thus, the Obama administration has put pressure on its allies in the Asia-Pacific area to stay away from the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, one of China’s pet projects. As of Japan’s GDP at $5 trillion stands also at four times that of South Korea. Trade and investment Asia is in a unique tradition with several world powers sitting on a nuclear arsenal and harboring resentments and old, deep rooted hatreds and territorial disputes. Military budgets are on the rise and economic growth has slowed considerably. Competition exists between the countries we have been considering in this series of articles – it exists in the industrial world, in cyberspace and in outer space. Asia’s history is one of constant conflicts and long-seated hatred and there are too many potential conflicts that threaten to erupt into wars. There is also a seeming disdain of leaders towards their own people, the most flagrant case being North Korea. There is also a major gender imbalance in favor of men and this situation has led to fears of a rise in militarism. There is contradictory evidence that unmarried men tend to be more violence-prone than married man. Almost all the countries covered have strong economic interconnections. India runs a major trade deficit with China which in 2013 was of over $ 30 billion, with India complaining that Chinese goods take advantage of a whole series of measures put in place by the Chinese government while Indian companies have problems entering the market. Similarly, Indian companies have had problems entering the Japanese market, but due to quality issues. With the opening of the Indian economy to foreign investments, Japanese corporations, catching up to a late start, are expected to invest $35 billion over the next 5 years in public-private partnerships. Japan is also expected to become a partner in a major public-private infrastructure partnership project, so large many knowledgeable observers of Indian politics doubt it can be realized, estimated at $100 billion, to create a high technology corridor – the Delhi Metro Industrial Corridor – linking Mumbai to New Delhi. Terrorist attacks have so far frightened would-be investors, however. China has also been an important investor in India. A sustained economic cooperation between the two countries would make them less dependent on exports to the European Union and to the US. China has regularly complained about the long delays for India to approve investments by Chinese firms and of a total ban in investments in infrastructure. Chinese workers also have difficulties in obtaining working visas. Bilateral trade between India and Russia is much lower at $12 billion but after President Putin’s visit, ambitious targets have been set for 2030, essentially in infrastructure projects. Thus, Russia will supply four nuclear power plants. India’s largest market is the US with bilateral trade between the two countries being of the order of $100 billion with plans to reach $500 billion. The US has thus displaced China as India’s largest trading partner in spite of India’s complaint that US subsidies to cotton farmers undermine Indian exports and that steel exports are unjustly submitted to high tariffs. In turn, the US complains at the difficulties companies face in attempting to enter the Indian market and at the limitations imposed on them when investing. China and Japan are each other’s largest trade partners, China having replaced the US in that role. Japanese tourists are the main visitors to China. Japan is the major foreign investor in China, taking advantage of low labor costs. However, the tense situation between the two countries, and the increased cost of manpower, has led Japanese companies to sharply reduce their investments. China is also South Korea’s main trading partner with two-way trade of $230 billion and the signing of a bilateral trade agreement that took effect in February of this year. Koreans are also large investors in China. China and Russia, in spite of the fact that they are both export-oriented economies, are complementary in that the first is a big consumer of raw materials, primarily energy, while Russia is a major exporter of oil and gas. This has led China to increasingly see Russia as a petro-state with little technological capabilities and unable to pose any type of threat. Hence, while in the years following the Second World War Russia saw itself dwarfed by the Western economies, the country is, today, overtaken economically by both the West and the East, the latter being represented by China, Japan and South Korea. In the Chinese-Russian partnership, China appears to be the senior partner and it is safe to say that Russia needs China more than China needs Russia. Russia sees China as a hedge of its European energy markets. This hedge, however, can only be fully operational in the future as building the right infrastructure that would allow Russia to move its energy exports eastwards is a long-term venture, particularly since Russia’s most productive wells are in the European part of the country while the bulk of China’s population is in the eastern part of their own country. Two-way trade in 2014 was over $100 billion and while China is Russia’s second largest trading partner, trade with the EU is 4 times that amount. The value of trade is very dependent on the price of oil and gas. It is nevertheless expected to reach $200 billion by 2020. On completion of the Eastern Siberian Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (ESPO), Russia could supply 20% of China’s imports and 33% of Japan’s on condition these two countries choose this dependency. The two countries have launched the world’s largest joint gas project – the Sila Sibiri pipeline – which will deliver gas to the Russian Far East and to China. There are other joint projects, including in the Arctic, which have received President Putin’s blessing. Since 2014 commercial contracts between the two countries intensified as Russia was looking for credit and investors in the face of the sanctions imposed by the EU and the US as well as the serious dip in the price of oil. The oil and gas contracts signed between the two countries are, respectively, of $270 and $400 billion over a thirty-year period with Gazprom deliveries due to start in 2019. Chinese investments in Russia are of the order of $10 billion and new investments have been earmarked for a large variety of projects. The largest investment is a partnership with Rosneft, valued at several billion dollars meant essentially for the Sakhalin-3 block. Rosneft has also secured a $35 billion loan from China in exchange for oil supplies. This envelope is to be used to purchase several smaller oil producers. China will also invest in a high-speed train between Kazan and Moscow – a $25 billion investment, and other major infrastructure projects are being discussed. Russia has, in turn, agreed to supply China with the know-how to produce uranium-enrichment facilities and to supply enriched uranium. Economic ties between China and the US are also important and the interdependence between them appears to be growing rather than slowing in spite of constant mutual accusations of retreating from free trade. The US ran in 2013 a deficit of $318 billion for merchandise trade, one third of the total trade deficit. China is the US’ biggest supplier. Imports by the US of cheap Chinese products – essentially manufactured goods, machinery, chemicals and transport products – has been of great assistance in controlling inflation and the US has thus transferred to China increasingly large amounts of dollars. Since China is a major supplier of goods to other Asian countries, in particular in South-East Asia, that assemble products for export to the US, the US’ importance to the Chinese economy is even greater than what the above figures show. The US has started a large number of cases against China at the WTO claiming the country is practicing illegally high import tariffs on US goods while simultaneously subsidizing exports. By limiting or banning exports of raw materials, such as bauxite, and allowing prices to climb, China has been accused of developing one more strategy of subsidizing its industry. Chinese investments in the US are of the order of $50 billion but are dwarfed by the over $400 billion invested by US corporations in China, even though the investment flow has slowed. Statistics in this respect are not meaningful, as often these investments are not reported in US statistics as the flow of funds is channeled through favorable tax havens. A large number of American firms have established manufacturing facilities in China, and this allowed the US economy to grow with minimal inflation. There is a generally shared belief that China has entered a period of uncertainty, that local competition is adopting a more aggressive stance that in some areas there is over-capacity, that intellectual property is not respected and that the country is increasingly adopting a protectionist stance. Nevertheless, an increasing number of US corporations are dependent on the Chinese economy for their profits and sometimes on products, such as tobacco, whose sales are dwindling in traditional markets. Also, the US is attempting to sell, in China, alternative energy sources such as solar or wind power technology. This is a major market considering that the Chinese government has announced its intention of investing $200 billion in renewable energies by 2020. US companies, however, are loath to export their latest technology in a country known for closing an eye to the trespassing of intellectual property. Chinese investments in the US could be even bigger if they were not met by obstacles – the most glaring example being that of Huawei, the telecommunications company, which was blocked from entering the US market. The Chinese have also become very large buyers of real estate in the US, amassing a portfolio of $22 billion. The relationship between Japan and Russia is more complex since the two countries have never signed a final peace agreement and Japan still lays claim on the Kurile Islands. Russia is ill at ease with Japan’s future involvement in a missile defense system and has proposed to join the initiative which is led by the US. Bilateral trade is of the order of $33 billion with oil and LNG taken an important part of this volume, in particular from the Sakhalin deposits. After the Fukushima incident Japan has felt the need to diversity its sources of energy and Russia is a natural supplier. In Russia’s eyes, supplying Japan would counterbalance the increasing dependence on China. Several cooperation agreements to develop new gas and oil fields have also been signed between the two countries. Total Japanese investments are small, with car makers have plants in Russia, but the most likely investments will target Russia’s Far East, particularly for infrastructures. Several joint ventures have been started in agriculture, energy and infrastructure. Japan and South Korea are each other’s fourth largest trading partners. Russia has proposed building a railway that would link North and South Korea to the European markets via Russian territory – i.e. connecting to the Trans-Siberian Railway. Such an undertaking would allow South Korea to increase trade with Europe and reduce its dependency on the American and Asian markets. Bilateral trade between South Korea and the US amounted to $115 billion in 2014 and represented a US deficit of $25 billion. In June 2007, the two countries signed a trade agreement that phases out all tariffs, on consumer and industrial products over a period of three years. Total investments from South Korea to the US is estimated to be $25 billion while US investments in South Korea are of $35 billion. Bilateral trade between the US and Russia was, in 2014, of $34 billion with a US deficit of $13 billion. Russians are big investors in New York – particularly Manhattan – real estate particularly since the sanctions and the decrease in the price of oil led to a collapse of the ruble. US investments in Russia stand at around $15 billion and are rather diminishing, again in view of the sanctions. Economic growth has not eradicated poverty in East Asia and estimates of the extremely poor are of the order of 250 million persons. Although continuing economic growth should lead to a reduction in poverty, this should still touch 15 to 17% of the population. The imbalance stems in part by the fact that there is an imbalance between skilled and unskilled labor as well as regional imbalances due to the rapid industrialization of certain areas. Demography East Asia is today’s the world’s fastest aging. Projections show 20% of the population over 60 by 2050, or two-thirds of the world’s seniors. Already by 2040, the number of people over 60 will be higher than the people under 15. Just as China is the world’s most populated country, India is the world’s largest democracy. They are the only two countries with a population larger than 1 billion. It is forecast that sometime between 2015 and 2025, India’s population will have overtaken China’s as the former’s population is growing at twice the rate of China’s population. Furthermore, India’s population has a low average age while China’s is aging. Therefore while India may be considered to have an infinite supply of cheap labor, this will not be the case of China in the mid-term future. Thus, while India’s dependency ratio will improve, China’s will worsen. China’s population is aging rapidly, partly because of a vastly improved health system. This expanding health care system will require substantial additional funding. So will the pension system even though traditionally, children support their elderly parents. Both China and India suffer from a growing ratio of males to females. The devotion of the children to their parents, when these age, will be difficult to maintain if single men, due to absence of the brides, migrate in search of employment of opportunities. As the economies of both countries expand at a similar rate, they will need trained engineers and scientists. China graduates 600 000 engineers per year and India 350 000. However, China has a qualitative advantage due to a better educational system. Japan’s economy is to a large extent driven by demographic change. Birthrates have collapsed with a total fertility rate dangerously approaching 1. With a life expectancy of 88 years, it has today the world’s oldest population, with the largest number of centenarians, but may well cede this place to China by 2050. By 2025 its population over 80 years of age will be equal to that under 15. Thus, two persons of working age will have to support one retiree. On the other hand, they will be a reduction in supporting children. Older persons invest very conservatively, and therefore the economy might lack the dynamic financial markets required to fuel growth and entrepreneurship. To a large extent, the same analysis applies to South Korea. North Korea is faring slightly better with a total fertility rate of nearly 2. Russia has a population of 142 million for a country representing 19% of immerged land. There has been a small rebound in birth rates, but it may not be sustainable. The percentage of the population over 60 is low compared to China, Japan and South Korea, and is of only 20%. The imbalance between women and men – 1 160 women for 1 000 men – and the fact that women in rural areas are unable to find husbands who are not addicted to alcohol, contribute to a low level of marriages, and consequently low fertility. With life expectancy expected to rise in the coming years, while fertility is expected to remain at its present level, the old-age dependency ratio is expected to double by 2050. This would mean that spending on allowances and pensions would rise from the present figure of 9% to 12% by 2030 and 16% by 2050. The situation in the US, while not as bad, is worrying. Its population of 316 million is growing at the rate of 0.7% and is expected to reach 400 million by 2050. 22% of the population will be over 65. The life expectancy is slightly higher than 78 years but the total fertility rate at 1.9% is below replacement. The reduction in birth rate applies also to immigrants, usually an important component in US demographics. India’s demographics are quite different. Its population is only slightly below that of China, at nearly 1.3 billion, and it has the world’s largest number of young people since two thirds of its population is under 35, and the average age of the population is 27. But in India too the population is aging and is expected to reach 37 by 2050. At that time 300 million people with be over 60. The total fertility rate is 2.5. It should therefore still enjoy a demographic dividend compared to the ageing societies we have reviewed. The Diasporas There is a large Tibetan diaspora in India where the Dalai Lama has established his headquarters and this has been an irritant to the Chinese government while achieving little for the Tibetans. The Dalai Lama relinquished his political responsibilities in March 2014 and has been replaced by a Harvard scholar who has never visited Tibet The presence of a Chinese diaspora in Russia is a more complex issue as there is an important labor movement, of legal and illegal immigrants, along the border and is becoming an important issue in the relations between the two countries. Migrant labor is essentially employed in agriculture and construction. The total number of Chinese in Russia is estimated to be 400 000 including nearly 20 000 Chinese students in Russian universities. The vast majority of the migrants come to make money and have no plans to settle permanently. The Chinese diaspora in the United States is much larger with 1.6 million immigrants and just as many US citizens of Chinese origin, heavily concentrated in the states of California and New York. Several incidents have questioned the loyalty of some of the immigrants to the host country. There is a small but concentrated Korean diaspora in China numbering approximately 600000. There has been a considerable flow of highly qualified and entrepreneurial migrants from India to the US and the Indian diaspora amounts to 2.5 million people and this number is expected to double in the next ten years. Indians are thus the most important group of Asian immigrants in the US. The 75 000 Indian students in the US are the largest foreign group registered in colleges and universities. Indian immigrants have been, on the whole, an extremely educated and successful group with total assets estimated to total $76 billion. There are in the US over 3 million Americans of Russian descent. Water There is a contentious issue between China and India regarding the latter’s water diversion plan which will shift 50 billion cubic meters of water from the Yarlung-Tsangpo, an affluent of the Brahmaputra originating on the Tibetan plateau, to the Yellow River so as to harness hydroelectric energy. This would severely restrict the flow of water to India. Energy As mentioned in the first part of this article, China and India, but also China and Japan, are competing to secure energy sources. While the competition between China and India lies in securing energy sources in other countries, that with Japan is not only centred around Russian supplies, but also on the presumed hydrocarbon deposits around two rocky uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that the Japanese government purchased from a private owner and which China claims as its own. China is uncomfortable with the long shipping route oil takes from the Middle East to its ports. The area is populated by pirates and other revolutionary or semi-revolutionary movements that could be allowed, if not encouraged, to target Chinese vessels. Ensuring the safety of the shipping routes is the official reason for China’s investments in naval power. Central Asia Russia fears the political influence that China may exert on the Central Asian republics, in particular through the SCO – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – set up by China but pf which Russia is also a member. India is, incidentally, an observer, and Russia would like to invite the country to full membership status. Intriguingly, however, while Russia sees to remain the determining factor in influencing policy in Central Asia, China’s position is that these states are free to develop relations with countries not members of the SCO and that the organization is not, and should not, become an anti-Western club. Russia opposes China’s wish of extending the SCO agreement to cover trade in the form of a free trade agreement, as Russian corporations would be unable to compete on price. It would also open the area to Chinese investments, including in energy projects. China is successful in the region due to the aid it brings, diplomatic pressure and large investments. Russia’s policy has been to prevent Central Asian countries to supply European markets by bypassing the Russian pipeline system and ensuring it has a monopsony. However, in view of the decreased quantities purchased by Russia affected by the reduced demand in Europe, these countries have looked for alternative markets, and China is the obvious one. Russia would like to see a coordination of pricing policy on energy exports between the member countries that are energy exporters. Another Chinese advantage is that it is perceived by Central Asian governments as a trading partner and a door to Europe and the Middle East, and not as a competitor as Russia is for gas supplies to Europe. Russia’s role as a supplier of finished goods disappeared with the downfall of communism. China sees the pipelines for hydrocarbons from Central Asia as a hedge against possible disruptions of shipping lanes from the Middle East. However, just as it is beefing up its Navy to protect those lanes, and to rely less on US maritime power, it will have to beef up its security along the pipelines to protect them from possible attacks. Russia sees China as a good partner in its policy of containing the US in Central Asia and elsewhere. In fact one can say that Russia sees China as a partner only when its relations with the West are less than perfect – which is the situation at present. China has been able, so far, to restrain any influence the US could have on Central Asia thus enabling China to secure energy resources for itself and to prevent the infiltration of democratic ideas. The US has key interests in the region: to support its military adventure in Afghanistan, to have access to energy – without relying on the Russian logistical infrastructure – and to wield political influence in the entire Central Asian area. The US also sees an opportunity to lessen Russia’s position as a gas supplier – should the Central Asian republics find alternative routes for their gas shipments, Gazprom will no longer be in a position to export as domestic demand is rising from an already important base. Weapons China’s strategy has been, and will continue to be in the foreseeable future, to encircle India both through its own forces and through those of its allies who neighbour India, Pakistan in in particular. China, nevertheless, contrary to the US, is not part of any defence organization and thus does not have the burden of having to defend the territories of other nations. China’s military budget for 2015 has been increased by 10%, reaching $145 billion, a rather steep figure in regard to the slowing of the country’s economy. China has installed missile systems pointing to India’s major cities while China’s industrial heartland is very far removed from their common border. China’s nuclear strategy is to use their missiles only for a second strike and not to use them for a first strike on any state. It may, however, rapidly change this policy if it so decided. India is also worried with the building of a port, by China, on the coast of Myanmar, that would give China direct access to the Bay of Bengal. It is also worried by the increasing presence of Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean. The submarines use Colombo as a refuelling port, leading India to fear that China was building alliances with countries surrounding India – the so-called ‘string of pearls.’ China has called this project the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, a project financed by China to the tune of $40 billion. Indian military hardware purchases, the world’s largest with a budget of $250 billion over 10 years, are an important source of cash for the ailing Russian military manufacturers. The two countries will be jointly developing a fighter plane of the fifth generation. India has also served Russia as a basis to enter the South East Asian markets for military hardware by servicing and training users of Russian equipment sold to those countries. Russia has been very supportive of India in its conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir, among other things committing not to supply weapons to Pakistan, an embargo it lifted in 2014. The US has also been a major provider of mostly defensive weapons to the Indian army and this may lead to a licensing agreement for India to manufacture American weapons. India and Japan have reached an agreement regarding military cooperation. Japan is about to review its constitution to enable it to expand its military which is already considered as one of the world’s best and China would have problems measuring themselves to Japanese firing power in case of a conflict. It is also backed up by the US military that have bases in Japan. The main discussions between the two countries centred on the supply of nuclear technology and fuel to India by the US. This is an important step considering the fear of nuclear proliferation pervasive in the world today and particularly considering the fact that India will be adding to an already existing nuclear capability while it has never signed the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This allows the US to put pressure on New Delhi to reduce its energy purchases from Tehran. Further, India’s rivalry with Pakistan might lead the latter to accelerate its own weapons programs should India proceed with its own purchases. For India this is an important development as its supplies of uranium are drying out. The treaty also allows it to remain a nuclear player without signing the NPT, although the country has entered negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency to negotiate an agreement that would have clauses specific to its situation. The US has insisted on certain clauses in the treaty such as India accepting not to undertake further nuclear testing, not reprocessing the spent fuel and accepting that the President of the United States certifies, annually, that the country is respecting these clauses. For the US this is a major step in containing China and relations between China and India took a turn for the worse, with China supplying nuclear power plants to Pakistan, after this agreement was signed. Another main motivation of the US has been to prevent India making up for its energy shortcomings by purchasing Iranian gas that would be routed through an Indian-Pakistani pipeline. Financial motives are not left too hard behind, considering the deal would generate close to $100 billion in sales for US corporations to which must be added large sales of defence equipment which presently India purchases from France and Russia. India is also the country with which the US has conducted the largest number of military exercises in recent years. Following President Obama’s visit to India in 2015, a Joint Strategic Vision for the region was agreed upon. Its objective is to support sustainable development and address poverty. However, the main objective is to ensure India’s Navy plays a dominant role in the Indian Ocean. Japan is now allowing its military to have an activity outside the country’s territory. China’s increased militarization worries Japan, particularly the installation of missile launching ramps, China’s declaration of an exclusive maritime and air space, and the highly vocal Chinese media constantly threatening of war with Japan. China, in turn, fears a reunified Korea with nuclear weapons. Russia continues to be China’s main weapons supplier as it wants the money from these exports which are of the order of $2 billion per year. Since 2006, the two countries have conducted joint manoeuvres, and intensified their military cooperation. China, however, no longer represents an overwhelming share of Russia’s weapons exports – a mere 20% today from a high of 70% ten years ago, while the value of total exports has risen considerably, thus decreasing even more the importance of Chinese purchases. Further, with the new cold war, Russia itself is becoming its own major customer. Russia is eager to maintain this monopoly on Chinese weapons purchases, and the EU and US embargo assist them in achieving this objective. However, inevitably, China will want to be involved in weapons development and testing rather than simply acquiring technology entirely developed in Russia. It has already indicated it does not want to buy finished weapons or assembly kits but want to build the planes in China. On a longer term basis, it is obvious that China will develop its own military platforms and it is already successfully copying several weapons systems thus severely reducing its imports from Russia. This worries Russia as on a conventional army basis, China would have the upper hand in case of conflict, and Russia would have to rely on tactical nuclear weapons where it has the upper hand. While the INF treaty constrains Russia’s capability of deploying intermediate range nuclear missiles, Russia would probably opt out of the treaty should it feel threatened by China. North Korea is actively developing its nuclear program and at least one estimate is that it may possess 100 nuclear heads by 2020. On the other side of the demilitarized zone, there are US forces on the ground. The US keeps 40 000 troops in South Korea. Border issues China and India have fought several border wars and in November 2006 China declared one of the Indian provinces, Arunachal Pradesh, to be part of China, calling it South Tibet. India also claims China is occupying illegally an Indian province in the Himalaya. In fact, China and India are in a constant military confrontation along their mountainous border. China is also in a confrontation with several countries regarding their maritime borders, and particularly Japan. The Diaoyu / Senkaku (Chinese and Japanese names, respectively) islands have been a bone of contention for 120 years but China has lately become assertive on their claims particularly as it is believed that the waters surrounding them are rich in hydrocarbons and fishing grounds. China’s attitude is also fed by the fact that it is using Japan as a useful scapegoat that helps it maintain strong nationalist feelings of its population, an important cement in a country in which social pressures between different groups, such as rural and urban, are increasing and threatening the country’s stability. China also believes that Japan is on a long-term decline and will not be able to adequately respond to China’ bullying presence. China’s claim that the entire South China Sea belongs to it has opened the door for the US to pose as the protector of the South East Asian countries. The South China Sea is an important point of convergence between the interests of the two countries as well as the countries of Southeast Asia. The rise of Chinese naval power – which could become larger than that of the US in the next 5 years – could threaten the US’ dominance in the area. The South China Sea sees the flow of half of the world’s trade and the conflictual situation could disturb the globalization process which explains why China is becoming interested in continental routes and goods are shipped by train through a new train link which is the worlds longest and reaches all the way to Madrid. The interest in the area, however, does not stop there. China believes that it contains massive quantities of oil – approximately the same as those in the Arab Gulf. China’s development and purchase of high-powered microwave weapons, 1500 missiles, submarines and amphibious ships seem targeted at resisting, or keeping at bay, the US Navy in case of a conflict with Taiwan. As a response, the US moved 20 vessels from the Atlantic to the Pacific fleet in 2007 and more such moves are forecasted. The South China Sea is considered by the US as a natural border China should not cross. It is a strategic passage point between the Indian Ocean and Japan and Korea. China also has a border issue with Russia. The two countries share a 4300 km border and an important historical confrontational past. Inside those two borders the major issues about the autonomy of certain regions and peoples – Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang for China and a considerably large number of areas in Russia and the adjoining countries in Central Asia that were once part of the Soviet Union. If China has a clear position on this issue – i.e. a total aversion to any such move including with the use of force and population movements – Russia has a more opportunistic stance. It has fought an internal war to prevent the Chechen aspirations to an independent state but intervened military outside its borders in Georgia and is the only country to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Russia fears that its under-populated and vast expanse of territory rich in natural resources, Siberia and the Far East, yields in the face of China’s demography while Russia is in a state of demographic collapse. These two areas have large deposits of hydrocarbons, diamonds, gold and other metals as well as large tracts of forests that provide raw materials to the Chinese paper industry. Some of the lands forming the region of the Russian Pacific were Chinese until the eighteenth century, and while China has not made any recent claims for their return, Russians fear they may do so. Russia and China are intent in developing their relations but simultaneously competing for domination of Central Asia and attracting Japanese and South Korean capital to develop the Far East so as not to be exclusively bound to China. Simultaneously, Russia will redevelop China’s and North Korea’s moribund industry in the adjoining North Eastern parts of the country so as to economically integrate these areas. Russia also has a contentious issue with Japan that has prevented the signing of a peace agreement between the two countries since the end of the Second World War. It concerns what the Russians call the Southern Kuril Islands, and the Japanese the Northern Territories. Russia carried out military drills on the islands and announced it would spend over $1 billion between 2016 and 2025 to develop these islands. Japan would like to invest in these islands, particularly in energy projects. While for many years neither country appeared to think, in spite of speeches to the contrary, that dealing with the other was a priority, Primer Minister Abe’s visit to Moscow in August 2013 seems to have started a different process. One thing Japan needs to avoid at all costs is a coalition between China and Russia. A dialogue process was started between the defence and foreign ministers of the two countries to discuss measures to combat piracy and terrorism. Russia’s strengthening of its military presence in the Arctic should also be considered as part of its Asian play, the Arctic being a possible base for ventures in Europe, the American continent and Asia. Japan also has a territorial issue with South Korea centred around the Takeshima or Tokdo islands, as called respectively by the Japanese and Koreans, that each country claims to be a part of their territory. These are very small volcanic islands. They are, however, of interest economically as their waters are good fishing grounds and the surrounding waters are believed to contain gas, although none has so far been found. Further, if an international arbiter would rule in favour of Korea, Japan’s case for the Kurile Islands and the Senkaku Islands would be severely affected as the country’s claims in all three cases stems from the San Francisco Peace Treaty that remained vague on this issue. Read alsoThe Asian Square Dance – Part 1 The Asian Square Dance – Part 2: China The Asian Square Dance – Part 3: India The Asian Square Dance – Part 4: JapanThe Asian Square Dance – Part 5: The Koreas The Asian Square Dance – Part 6: RussiaThe Asian Square Dance – Part 7: The Role of the USA News about the Future Free Heating Heat your home for free with heating provided by a computer server. The Nerdalize heater contains high-performance servers in the form of a radiator and allows for them to be placed in your home safely and secure. As Nerdalize covers the cost of electricity, the heat generated by computations, such as medical research, heat your home for free. “Together with Eneco, one of the largest energy suppliers in the Netherlands we have rolled out the first heaters with a select group of their customers under the name Eneco eRadiator.” Forests for a sustainable futureCIFOR’s 2014 annual report Peat fires in Sumatra, forestry degrees in the DRC, the world’s largest reforestation program in China, timber growers in Peru and Indonesia, adaptation in the Sahel, and global bushmeat networks: just some of the topics that CIFOR’s research covered in 2014, through 70 active projects in 42 countries. The Annual Report 2014: Forests for a sustainable future showcases how CIFOR is focused on these topics and more, helping keep forests, landscapes and forest communities high on the global development agenda. Daring to invent the future of Africa: Kah Walla Kah Walla is an African entrepreneur and internationally recognized for her expertise in management, her understanding of development issues and her strong stance on Africa, its women and youths. She was recognized in 2008 by the World Bank as one of 7 women entrepreneurs in Africa Walla has developed the African firm STRATEGIES! in Cameroon, which offers consulting services in leadership and management, respecting the highest norms and standards in the international market. She is a board member of the World Entrepreneurship Forum Recommended Book Thinking the TwentyFirst CenturyIdeas For The New Political Economyby Malcolm McIntosh In a sophisticated and far-reaching blend of theory and reflection, Thinking the Twenty-First Century takes a provocative look at the changes required to build a new global political economy. McIntosh charts five system changes essential to this transition: globality and Earth awareness; the rebalancing of science and awe; peacefulness and the feminisation of decision-making; the re-organisation of our institutions; and, evolution, adaptation and learning. That they are all connected should be obvious, but that they are written about together is less common. McIntosh argues that these five changes are already underway and need to be accelerated. Combining science, philosophy, politics and economics, Thinking the Twenty-First Century questions our current model of capitalism and calls for a much-needed new order. This forceful call to action advocates a balanced political economy with trandisciplinarity, connectivity, accountability and transparency at its centre, as an alternative to a world built on the failing system of neoliberal economics. From one of the pioneers of the global corporate sustainability and social responsibility movement, this unique book combines analysis, diary and reflection to present a radical way forward for the twenty-first century. IBM Watson Health and the Future of Healthcare Source: IBM Watson Health Fueling a New Generation of Health Insights People today want more information to inform the decisions they make about their health. Many different factors that affect one’s health: nutrition, lifestyle, medical history – and today, much of this information can be captured in data. Personal fitness trackers, wearable health monitors, and other connected devices are generating more and more data every day. But without a glimpse into all the information out there, individuals only receive a fragmented view of the whole picture. For the first time, IBM Watson Health is creating a more complete and personalized picture of health, powered by cognitive computing. Now individuals are empowered to understand more about their health, while doctors, researchers, and insurers can make better, faster, and more cost-effective decisions. IBM Watson Health Cloud IBM Watson Health Cloud will bring together clinical, research and social data from a diverse range of health sources, creating a secure, cloud-based data sharing hub, powered by the most advanced cognitive and analytic technologies. Explorys and Phytel will become part of the Watson Health Cloud. Explorys has compiled one of the largest healthcare databases in the world, derived from numerous and diverse financial, operational, […]
Content The Asian Square Dance – Part 9: Mini Scenarios The Future Now Show with Andreas Walker, Peter Cochrane and Katie Aquino Videos with Rohit Talwar, Gray Scott and Gerd Leonhard Club of Amsterdam blog Surfing into a Greener Future News about the Future: Magnetic Patterns / WikiHouse Nature Is Speaking – Harrison Ford is The Ocean Recommended Books: Who Are We? / Creative Intelligence Contrasting futures for the ocean give a stark warning to governments ahead of Paris climate negotiations Futurist Portrait: Hans Rosling Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Andreas Walker, Peter Cochrane and Katie Aquino …. and our videos of the London event about The Future of Businesswith Gerd Leonhard, Gray Scott and Rohit Talwar.. Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman The Asian Square Dance – Part 9: Mini Scenarios By Michael Akerib, Vice-Rector SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY “I predict that it is in Asia where the fate of the future will be decided.” – Tsar Alexander III Needless to say, forecasts are extremely difficult to make in international relations, and all the more so when so many factors are in play. The author does not have any special information that he could use to forecast the future. The different miniscenarios are very wide and therefore any of these could reasonably, or unreasonably, be expected to occur. MiniScenario I: Integration or growing together in a Sino-centric world “… economic integration is the path to riches and peace.” E Prescott China uses its massive wealth to invest in other countries generating wealth and peaceful sustainable development in a Sino-centric world. This will be done through the One Belt, One Road initiative that groups two projects, the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road which aims at integration, on a number of levels, a large number of countries from Asia to Europe. These projects replace the International Socialization initiative of President Hu. Central Asia will be the first beneficiary of the first project and could easily be integrated as a supplier of energy and food. Europe has largely welcomed China’s financial presence – it now rates as the fifth biggest investor with 2014 FDIs of $18 billion. China has signed an Agriculture Cooperation Plan with the European Union. China is also interested in the Ukraine as a food supplier. Russia would welcome investments in the Pacific where China could produce food and timber to fill its large requirements. The Silk Road initiative is backed by a $40 billion fund and the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) of which even the UK has become a founding member, soon followed by France, Germany and Italy. This could alleviate the negative perceptions the US has of the bank. These two initiatives are very wide and encompass financial cooperation, increased people-to-people contacts, infrastructure building, investment facilitation, opening of economic corridors and trade facilitation. China’s actions go as far as Latin America where investments in Ecuador and Venezuela cover the entire energy production process. Africa has also been a priority zone for Chinese investments with a priority for infrastructure. The possibility of transferring labor intensive industries to the black continent has also been suggested. Nevertheless, the US remains the first destination of China’s overseas investments. Chinese companies are buying majority shareholdings in US companies cheaply as the American economy has been underperforming significantly. This has also led the US to considerably reduce its defense spending. For the project to be fully successful, however, China abandons its bullying tactics in the South China Sea, its aggressive stance towards Japan, the expansion of its naval power in the Indian Ocean and its rhetoric about reconquering Taiwan. Territorial disputes with India are settled. Historical issues leading to tensions with Japan and the negotiation of an agreement regarding the disputed islands should also come about. It changes its historical narrative to reduce anti-Japanese feelings and above all to increase the GDP per capita of its population. It is also more cooperative with its ethnic minorities to avoid confrontation and gradually slides towards a fully democratic system. It should reduce its military spending that make it appear as an aggressive regional power looking to become a hegemon and invest time and money to project a friendlier image to the surrounding countries. A satisfactory model is the relations between China and South Korea. This has been achieved through frequent meetings and discussions at various governmental levels. China and Japan reach an agreement on the Senkaku Islands, followed by wider agreements covering trade and investments, and Japan becomes one of China’s closest allies. A number of events related to the US personnel on the military bases in Japan, leads to a downgrading of the relationship between Japan and the US and the latter is asked to reduce the number of military personnel in the country. Effectively the US presence in the China Sea becomes irrelevant. Taiwan can no longer be effectively protected and a referendum approves the return of Taiwan in the fold of the People’s Republic of China. Another important step in increasing China’s contribution to a peaceful development is the rise of the remimbi – which today is the fifth most used currency and the second most used in trade finance – as a global currency. It first needs to become convertible and then become a reserve currency and part of the IMF’s SDR basket. MiniScenario 2: Chaos ahead: The collapse of the Chinese economy The ageing population and the impact of decades of the one-child policy led to a major impact on labor availability. The country stops being considered as low labor-cost. The government may open the country to immigration from the neighboring countries, creating social tensions. The anti-corruption drive amplifies and touches a large number of well-established senior members of the party that decide to band together. The president is overthrown. Revolts start in several rural areas where income inequality with city dwellers is large. Farmers and workers are reluctant to see corruption gain the upper hand. Social stability is threatened. Large tracts of land are polluted and the rural labor force ages, agricultural production declines steeply leading to food shortages. Imports of foodstuffs lead to increased prices and a disruption of the grain market, exacerbated by a US-imposed reduction on exports to China. China decides it will no longer support North Korea and a flood of refugees arrives in the poor eastern provinces. Water scarcity, already a problem, grows worse due to the present agricultural plans. A disaster is only a climatic-wrought drought away. Pollution is affecting agricultural production and creating major health problems. Air pollution is major cities already led to episodes of civil unrest. A bank collapse is a clear possibility as the amount of outstanding bad loans is considerable. This could lead the central bank to sell massive amounts of dollars, putting enormous pressure on the American currency. The Uigur minority revolts in an attempt to secure independence. Maoists entice the population to revolt and lead them into a civil war. This grinds globalization to a halt and creates a surge in inflation. MiniScenario 3: The collapse of North Korea North Korea’s dictator, Kim Jong-un is assassinated and rival army factions launch a civil war. Chaos ensues and large numbers cross into China. The Chinese army tries to secure the border, but facing total lack of success, invades North Korea. The South Korean army also receives marching orders to secure part of the North Korean territories and in particular the Weapons of Mass Destruction. The two armies clash. US ground forces and air support back the South Korean army. Certain army units that had remained loyal to the Kim clan, led by Kim Jong-Un’s sister, detonate in front of Pohang, South Korea, a nuclear engine loaded on a ship. There follows a large number of deaths. Simultaneously a similar deflagration is carried out in a Japanese port with catastrophic mortality. The average Japanese is reminded of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. North Korean artillery bombs Seoul, including with chemical weapons. Sleeping North Korean operatives in South Korea proceed with assassinations of key figures. South Korea, having previously obtained nuclear weapons, reciprocates with the use of these weapons destroying major North Korean infrastructure. Japans’ Primer Minister orders Japanese troops to land on the western beaches of North Korea. The NATO allies of the US are expecting to be requested to provide support but no such request is forthcoming. The US wants to avoid having China drawn into the conflict. However, as the US, South Korean and Japanese troops make deep inroads into North Korea and the troops of that country put a stiff resistance, China calls urgent meetings of the Security Council which is simply emitting toothless resolutions. The Chinese military overtake North Korea and explode a nuclear bomb over Seoul. MiniScenario 4: Reviving old enmities China lands a group of group of marines on the Senkaku islands. Japan may not back down on its own claim on the islands and answers to the Chinese provocation by an important landing of Japanese troops and what starts as small skirmishes rapidly escalate as both sides provide air cover to their troops. With obvious Chinese superiority due to proximity and numbers, Japan asks for military assistance from the US. China disables a several important US satellites, causing disarray in communications among US troops. Chinese ballistic missiles rain on the US bases in Japan as a preemptive move and North Korea bombs Seoul with classic artillery and missiles. Russian troops seize the opportunity of occupying several northern islands and Hokkaido. Essentially, the Japanese economy is destroyed and the country suffers millions of dead civilians. MiniScenario 5: Gas as mediator For the US, Russia can be a potential player in the containment for China. Russia, while refusing this role, is reluctant to let China’s influence increase even more or to join China in limiting US’ role in Asia. While tensions rise between China and Japan over the Senkaku islands, and several incidents take place with planes colliding, Russia’s increased penetration in the Ukraine have led to severe sanctions by the European Union and the US. An ever larger part of Russian gas is exported to China, Japan and Korea. A conflict would seriously impair Russia’s exports. Russia therefore successfully acts as a mediator and President Putin’s prestige is enhanced both domestically and internationally. MiniScenario 6: China choking … or is it? Several vessels carrying oil for China are hijacked by pirates in the Malacca Straits. In spite of denials by the US and Indian governments, China claims this is a plot against it. A vessel also destined to China explodes a few hundred miles outside the Hormuz Straits and claims are made by an as-yet-unknown Uighur liberation movement. A US frigate was sailing very close to the vessel at the time of the explosion. An oil tanker bound for China is intercepted by a US vessel, thoroughly searched and then allowed to proceed to its destination. Central Asian and Russian supplies are able to replace the Middle East shortfall in exchange for further Chinese investments and an even greater economic integration. MiniScenario 7: Restless islands The US closely monitors the synthetic islands built by China in the South China Sea and which are claimed to be Chinese territory. Small incidents degenerate and lead to China attempting to close air and naval space to the US military. The US sinks a Chinese naval unit and China reciprocates. Escalation leads to a major conflict. Escalation includes cyber warfare, space warfare and China is able to keep the US outside the South China Sea. Both powers refrain from using nuclear weapons and China is free to continue its regional domination. Read alsoThe Asian Square Dance – Part 1 The Asian Square Dance – Part 2: China The Asian Square Dance – Part 3: India The Asian Square Dance – Part 4: JapanThe Asian Square Dance – Part 5: The Koreas The Asian Square Dance – Part 6: RussiaThe Asian Square Dance – Part 7: The Role of the USA The Asian Square Dance – Part 8: The economy | Trade and investment | Demography | The Diasporas | Water | Energy | Central Asia | Weapons | Border issues The Future Now Show with Andreas Walker, Peter Cochrane and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show The Future Now Show July 2015 Not youth but age is our futureThis show discusses a future that is very much happening already – the ageing of societies in developed nations. The huge increase in the ratio of the old to the young is making our current economic and social systems unworkable. And yet there is little sign that we are adapting our societies as we surely must to manage this demographic shift. The rise of the robots arguably poses similar threats and yet could offer solutions too. https://youtu.be/vFHar8qvIFIBut we are still left with great challenges, from the way we build our physical world to the nature of our economic and legal systems to our perception of what a life is and should be. Simple no longer worksThe sum total of human knowledge continues to increase, as does the complexity of the world we build for ourselves. And the increase is exponential, further enhanced by the global interconnectedness of everything. This show is not about the utopian or dystopian futures that might result, it is not about life beyond the singularity, it is about how this is affecting us now and how we deal with it now. If humans are not built to deal with such a complex and rapidly evolving world will the increasingly intelligent and flexible systems we build constitute the toolkit we need to adapt? How would this redefine the role of people and are societies ready to accept and adjust to this? featuring Andreas M. Walker,Peter Cochrane andKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”Paul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Following on from the previous show on consciousness hacking, this show discusses ‘transformative technology’, and the lab of the same name. The lab’s mission is improving well-being but the potential toolkit is the same. Getting hands-on with the brain is a hot area, with advances in imaging making this a more exact, if still nascent, science. A surprising number of applications are already out there, from game-based tools to (neuro-)feedback devices to devices that directly influence the brain through direct or indirect electric or magnetic stimulation. Some will no doubt find such things disturbing but the story here is the lab, the community and their vision of a happier us. Videos with Rohit Talwar, Gray Scott and Gerd Leonhard Dancing with Disruption:The Future of BusinessA collaboration between Fast Future Publishing and the Club of Amsterdam featuringRohit Talwar, Gray Scott and Gerd Leonhard Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy … and many more contributions. Surfing into a Greener Future World’s first algae-based, sustainable surfboard produced by UC San Diego biology and chemistry students UC San Diego’s efforts to produce innovative and sustainable solutions to the world’s environmental problems have resulted in a partnership with the region’s surfing industry to create the world’s first algae-based, sustainable surfboard. Marty Gilchrist of Arctic Foam, champion surfer Rob Machado and Steve Mayfield of Cal-CAB present San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer (second from left), with an algae-based surf board. “Our hope is that Mayor Faulconer will put this surfboard in his office so everyone can see how San Diego is a hub not only for innovation, but also for collaboration at many different levels,” said Stephen Mayfield, a professor of biology and algae geneticist at UC San Diego who headed the effort to produce the surfboard. “An algae-based surfboard perfectly fits with the community and our connection with the ocean and surfing.” Mayfield, an avid surfer for the past 45 years, joined Cardiff professional surfer Rob Machado and Marty Gilchrist of Oceanside-based Arctic Foam, the largest surfboard blank manufacturer in North America, to present the board to Mayor Faulconer. The project began several months ago at UC San Diego when undergraduate biology students working in Mayfield’s laboratory to produce biofuels from algae joined a group of undergraduate chemistry students to solve a basic chemistry problem: how to make the precursor of the polyurethane foam core of a surfboard from algae oil. Polyurethane surfboards today are made exclusively from petroleum. “Most people don’t realize that petroleum is algae oil,” explained Mayfield. “It’s just fossilized, 300 million to 400 million years old and buried deep in underground.” Students from the laboratories of Michael Burkart, a professor of chemistry and biochemistry, and Robert “Skip” Pomeroy, a chemistry instructor who helps students recycle waste oil into a biodiesel that powers some UC San Diego buses, first determined how to chemically change the oil obtained from laboratory algae into different kinds of “polyols.” Mixed with a catalyst and silicates in the right proportions, these polyols expand into a foam-like substance that hardens into the polyurethane that forms a surfboard’s core. To obtain additional high-quality algae oil, Mayfield, who directs UC San Diego’s California Center for Algae Biotechnology, or “Cal-CAB,” called on Solazyme, Inc. The California-based biotech, which produces renewable, sustainable oils and ingredients, supplied a gallon of algae oil to make the world’s first algae-based surfboard blank. After some clever chemistry at UC San Diego, Arctic Foam successfully produced and shaped the surfboard core and glassed it with a coat of fiberglass and renewable resin. Although the board’s core is made from algae, it is pure white and indistinguishable from most plain petroleum-based surfboards. That’s because the oil from algae, like soybean or safflower oils, is clear. “In the future, we could make the algae surfboards ‘green’ by adding a little color from the green algae to showcase their sustainability,” said Mayfield. “But right now we wanted to make it as close as we could to the real thing.” UC San Diego undergraduates in the Biodiesel Action Awareness Network (BAAN) determined how to chemically change the oil obtained from laboratory algae into different kinds of “polyols” in order to produce the core of the algae surfboard. UC San Diego undergraduates in the Biodiesel Action Awareness Network (BAAN) determined how to chemically change the oil obtained from laboratory algae into different kinds of “polyols” in order to produce the core of the algae surfboard. The algae surfboard not only represents the kind of collaboration that is the hallmark of UC San Diego, but the fusion of biotechnology, surfing and environmentally conscious thinking that has made the La Jolla campus and its environs such a desirable place to work and live for scientists, innovators and those who cherish the coastal environment. Mayfield said that, like other surfers, he has long been faced with a contradiction: His connection to the pristine ocean environment requires a surfboard made from petroleum. “As surfers more than any other sport, you are totally connected and immersed in the ocean environment,” he explained. “And yet your connection to that environment is through a piece of plastic made from fossil fuels.” But now, he explained, surfers can have a way to surf a board that, at least at its core, comes from a sustainable, renewable source. “In the future, we’re thinking about 100 percent of the surfboard being made that way—the fiberglass will come from renewable resources, the resin on the outside will come from a renewable resource,” Mayfield said. “This shows that we can still enjoy the ocean, but do so in an environmentally sustainable way,” he added. News about the Future New technique enables magnetic patterns to be mapped in 3D An international collaboration has succeeded in using synchrotron light to detect and record the complex 3D magnetisation in wound magnetic layers. This technique could be important in the development of devices that are highly sensitive to magnetic fields, such as in medical diagnostics for example. Their results are published now in Nature Communications. 3D structures in materials and biological samples can be investigated today using X-ray tomography. This is done by recording images layer-by-layer and assembling them on a computer into a three-dimensional mapping. But so far there has been no comparable technique for imaging 3D magnetic structures on nm length scales. Now teams from HZB and the Institut für Festkörperphysik / Technische Universität Dresden in collaboration with research partners from institutions in California have developed a technique with which this is possible. WikiHouse WikiHouse is an open source building system. Many designers, collaborating to make it simple for everyone to design, print and assemble beautiful, low-energy homes, customised to their needs. Open challengeTo develop a global catalogue of high performance, low-cost, low-energy solutions for sustainable homes & neighbourhoods; accessible to everyone. This includes not just houses themselves, but the ecology around them: from the planning & production of neighbourhoods, to off-grid energy and sanitation, to sensors & devices that allow citizens to understand and control their homes. You can collaborate by taking on one of these challenges and developing a solution in line with the WikiHouse principles and standards – then share that solution. The power of open source is that once solved, each problem will always be solved for everyone, forever; and will continue to evolve as it is improved and adapted. Nature Is Speaking – Harrison Ford is The Ocean Conservation International (CI) Recommended Book: The Upcycle Beyond Sustainability – Designing for Abundance Who Are We?:Religious, Philosophical, Scientific and Transhumanist Theories Of Human NatureKindle Editionby John G. Messerly (Author) Who Are We? Religious, Philosophical, Scientific, and Transhumanist Theories of Human Nature examines religious, philosophical, scientific and transhumanist theories of human nature. It begins by discussing various religious views of human nature – Confucianism, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Judeo-Christianity. Then, it looks at the philosophical theories of human nature advanced by Plato, Aristotle, Epicurus, Kant, Sartre, Marx and Freud. Next it turns to Darwin and the neo-Darwinians for insights into human nature from evolutionary biology. The book concludes by considering the future of human nature, especially how science and technology will transform human nature into something transhuman or post-human. Creative Intelligence:Harnessing the Power to Create, Connect, and Inspireby Bruce Nussbaum Offering insights from the spheres of anthropology, psychology, education, design, and business, Creative Intelligence by Bruce Nussbaum, a leading thinker, commentator, and curator on the subjects of design, creativity, and innovation, is first book to identify and explore creative intelligence as a new form of cultural literacy and as a powerful method for problem-solving, driving innovation, and sparking start-up capitalism. Nussbaum investigates the ways in which individuals, corporations, and nations are boosting their creative intelligence — CQ — and how that translates into their abilities to make new products and solve new problems. Ultimately, Creative Intelligence shows how to frame problems in new ways and devise solutions that are original and highly social. Smart and eye opening, Creative Intelligence: Harnessing the Power to Create, Connect, and Inspire illustrates how to connect our creative output with a new type of economic system, Indie Capitalism, where creativity is the source of value, where entrepreneurs drive growth, and where social networks are the building blocks of the economy. Contrasting futures for the ocean give a stark warning to governments ahead of Paris climate negotiations The Oceans 2015 Initiative was launched to provide COP21 negotiators with key information on how the future ocean will look like. The ocean moderates human-induced global warming but at the cost of profound alterations to its physics, chemistry, ecology and ecosystems services. These are the findings of a report published today in Science by the Oceans 2015 Initiative and co-authored by IUCN World Commission on Protected Areas Marine Vice Chair, Dan Laffoley. The report evaluates and compares two scenarios under two potential carbon dioxide emissions pathways over this century. Both carry high risks to vulnerable ecosystems, such as warm-water corals and mid-latitude bivalve species (molluscs), but a business-as-usual scenario was projected to be particularly devastating with a high risk of widespread species mortalities. Lead author, Jean-Pierre Gattuso, Senior Scientist at CNRS (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, France), hopes that the findings of the report will generate the political will to enforce meaningful cuts in carbon dioxide emissions, stating “The oceans have been minimally considered at previous climate negotiations; our study provides compelling arguments for a radical change at COP21 (the UN climate summit in Paris in December)”. Driven by 40% increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the oceans have already undergone a series of major environmental changes in terms of ocean warming, ocean acidification and sea level rise. Whilst the report finds that emissions cuts in line with the Copenhagen Accord target of less than 2 degrees temperature rise by 2100 would ensure moderate impacts to all but the most vulnerable of species, failure to achieve this goal would lead to high impacts on all the marine organism groups considered. These include high-value species such as corals and finfish as well as pteropods (shell-bearing zooplankton) and krill that form the base of the oceanic food chain. The report singles out ocean acidification as one of the highest risks with the biggest impacts; shellfish, corals and zooplankton are particularly at risk. “Signs of ocean acidification have now been detected in both hemispheres,” warns Carl Gustaf Lundin, Director of IUCN’s Global Marine and Polar Programme. “Once thought to be a problem for the future, acidification is already having economic repercussions today and, if carbon emissions continue to grow, these are set to grow rapidly.” Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO2 emissions scenarios. SciencePhoto: Gattuso et al, Science, July 2015 What can be done? Beyond the stringent emissions cuts needed to meet the Copenhagen Accord target, the authors stress the need for recognition of the ocean’s important role in climate regulation and acknowledgement of its particular vulnerability. “Any new climate regime that fails to minimise ocean impacts will be seen as incomplete and inadequate,” says Laffoley. “Implementation of further Marine Protected Area networks and investment in coastal ecosystem restoration are two important ways to ensure the ocean can remain resilient and can continue to regulate the Earth’s climate.” Futurist Portrait: Hans Rosling Hans Rosling,Professor of International HealthKarolinska Institutet, StockholmDirector of Gapminder Foundation Hans Rosling is professor of International Health at Karolinska Institutet, the medical university in Stockholm, Sweden. When working as a young doctor in Mozambique he discovered apreviously unrecognized paralytic disease that his research teamnamed Konzo. His 20 years of research on global health concerned the character of the links between economy and health in Africa, Asia and Latin America. He has been adviser to WHO and UNICEF, co-founded Médecines sans Frontiers in Sweden and started new courses and published a textbook on Global Health. He is a member of the International Group of the Swedish Academy of Science and of the Global Agenda Network of the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. He co-founded Gapminder Foundation with son and daughter-in-law. Gapminder promotes a fact based world view by converting the internationalstatistics into moving, interactive, understandable and enjoyable graphics. This was first done by developing the Trendalyzer software that Google acquired in 2007. Using animations of global trends Hans Rosling lectures about past and contemporary economic, social and environmental changes in the world and he produces thematic videos using the same technique. His award-winning lectures on global trends have been labeled “humorous, yet deadly serious” and many in the audience realize their own world view is lagging many decades. Hans Rosling’s 5 points on global trends are: There are no longer two types of countries in the world, the old division into industrialized and developing countries has been replaced by 192 countries on a continuum of socio-economic development. Many Asian countries are now improving twice as fast as Europe ever did. A new gap may form between 5 billion people moving towards healthy lives with education, cell phones, electricity, washing machines and health service and more than 1 billion people stuck in the vicious circle of absolute poverty and disease. So far all progress towards health and wealth has been achieved at the price of increased CO2 emission that drives the imminent climate crisis. There are reasons for optimism regarding the future of the world because the world is so poorly governed at present. Hence we have enormous opportunities to improve the life of all humans by turning our already converging world into an equal, secure, sustainable and free place to live in. “Don’t Panic” – Hans Rosling showing the facts about population The world might not be as bad as you might believe! “Don’t Panic” is a one-hour long documentary produced by Wingspan Productions and broadcasted on BBC on the 7th of November 2013. The visualizations are based on original graphics and stories by Gapminder and the underlaying data-sources are listed here. Hans presents some results from our UK Ignorance Survey described here. Agenda Watch The Future Now Show! printable version
Content Looking to the Future: Introducing the Concept of Cultural Maturity The Future Now Show with Mikey Siegel and Katie Aquino A journey to 2115: Two futurists, two stories – Story 1 Club of Amsterdam blog DARPA’s Top Secret Weapons News about the Future: Tennis Tracking and Analysis System / Cities, green infrastructure and health Marine World Heritage Recommended Book: Designed for the Future: 80 Practical Ideas for a Sustainable World International Space Station – interactive panorama Futurist Portrait: Karlheinz Steinmueller Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Nichol Bradford and Katie Aquino about Consciousness Hacking Part 2! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Looking to the Future: Introducing the Concept of Cultural Maturity By Charles Johnston, MDThe Institute for Creative Development How do we best understand the future? We can miss that the simple attempt to do so is a radical enterprise – something both new, and suddenly essential. We’ve all had classes on history, on the past. But very few of us have had classes on the future, this in spite of the fact that the future is where we, and certainly our children, must ultimately reside. And if by chance we’ve had a class on the future, the odds that it provided significant insight is small. Certainly the most commonly encountered thinking about the future doesn’t help us greatly. The evening news rarely takes us beyond the next electoral or business cycle. And the competing advocacies of the political left and the political right most often leave us stuck in all too predictable ideological claims. The pronouncements of self-proclaimed futurists rarely get us a great deal further. Most futurists focus their attention on technological advancements – on inventions yet to come and how they may change our lives. This is a worthwhile focus, but by itself leaves the most important questions unanswered. Ultimately our future well-being depends much less on specific tools we may invent than whether we can manifest the ability to use those tools wisely. The most narrowly-conceived of technology-focused futures thinking is in the end “techno-utopian”. It makes new technologies the answer, in effect ignoring that the human dimension has any significant role to play. We also sometimes encounter an almost opposite kind of futures thinking. We can find the future described in terms of human transformation, most commonly of a spiritual, New Age sort. Such thinking is often well-intended, but in the end it stops just as short. At best it represents naïve wishful thinking, proposes outcomes that are simply not possible. At worst, it describes results that on close examination we realize we would never want to have been possible. Over the last thirty years, the Institute for Creative Development, a Seattle-based non-profit think tank and center for advanced leadership training, has worked to refine a very different way to think about the tasks ahead. The concept of Cultural Maturity applies a “developmental” perspective to understanding culture – and in particular, to making sense of the critical cultural questions now before us. Cultural Maturity is a specific notion within Creative Systems Theory, a comprehensive framework for understanding purpose, change, and interrelationship in human systems. The concept of Cultural Maturity looks in detail at how our times are challenging us to rethink modern age institutions and values that we have assumed to be ideals and end points. It describes how the most important issues before us will require new skills and capacities if we are just to effectively understand the questions, much less formulate useful answers. It argues that our times are demanding – and making possible – an essential kind of “growing up” as a species. Understanding all that is involved in this need “growing up” takes considerable reflection. My latest book Cultural Maturity: A Guidebook for the Future is 640 pages long. (An introductory companion volume, Hope and the Future, is a more manageable 150 pages.) But while the concept necessarily stretches how we customarily think, in the end what it describes is common sense, simply a maturity of common sense that we have not before been capable of. While Cultural Maturity is not as easy a notion as the simple phrase “growing up” might suggest, most of us get-whether consciously or not-that something like what the concept describes will be necessary. Certainly, we appreciate that a sane and healthy future will require that we be more intelligent in our choices. We recognize that dealing with nuclear proliferation in an ever more technologically complex and globally interconnected world will be very difficult unless we can bring greater insight to how we humans relate. Similarly, people recognize that addressing the energy crisis or environmental concerns more generally, will demand a newly sophisticated engagement of hard realities. People’s more immediate frustrations also show a beginning appreciation of the need for greater maturity. With growing frequency, people today respond with disgust – appropriately – at the common childishness of political debate, and at how rarely the media appeal to more than adolescent impulses. And most of us also recognize something further. We appreciate that it is essential, given the magnitude and the subtlety of the challenges we face and the potential consequences of our decisions, that our choices be not just intelligent, but wise. Cultural Maturity is about realizing the greater nuance and depth of understanding – we could say wisdom – that human concerns of every sort today demand of us. We get a first glimpse of Cultural Maturity, certainly its necessity, with the recognition that human culture in times past has functioned like a parent in the lives of individuals. It has provided us with our rules to live by, and, in the process, a sense of identity and connectedness with other. Such cultural absolutes have also protected us from life’s very real uncertainties and immense complexities. In today’s increasingly multi-faceted world, such guideposts serve us less and less well. The implications of this loss are Janus-faced – at once it brings disturbing absence and new options. Combined with how our world has become more risk-filled and complicated, this weakening of familiar rules can leave us dangerously overwhelmed and disoriented. And at the same time it reveals possibilities that before could not have been considered. Importantly, this is not just new possibility in some “anything-goes” sense. The concept of Cultural Maturity describes how the “growing up” that generates today’s loss of past absolutes also creates the potential for new, more mature ways of understanding and relating. More than just a loss of guideposts is involved. Cultural Maturity brings specific cognitive changes that offer the possibility of more systemic and complete ways of being in, and making sense of, our worlds. The concept of Cultural Maturity helps us in three primary ways. First, it provides a new guiding narrative in a time when stories we’ve traditionally relied on – from the American Dream to our various political and religious allegiances – serve us less and less well. Second, it identifies needed new skills and capacities that we can practice. Third, the concept of Cultural Maturity helps us develop the more sophisticated conceptual tools the future will increasingly require. (Cultural Maturity’s cognitive changes make possible new kinds of conceptual frameworks – Creative Systems Theory being one example.) In the end, the concept of Cultural Maturity is about leadership, though this in a particular sense. Its concern is not just good leadership, but the specific kind of leadership the future will require. It is also about leadership understood most expansively. It is about what the future demands of all of us – personally and in associations small and large. What it entails is pertinent to leading nations or organizations, but just as much it concerns making good choices as lovers, friends, or parents. Ultimately, it is about leadership in the choices we make as a species. You can find culturally mature perspective applied to current critical cultural issues as well as reflections on the continuing evolution of Creative Systems Theory at the Cultural Maturity blog. The Future Now Show with Mikey Siegel and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Consciousness HackingPart 1 featuringMikey Siegel, Founder, Consciousness Hacker, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Most of us invest significant time in pursuits, from religion to meditation to mountain treks, where a prime goal is mental or spiritual, such as enlightenment, contentment or inner peace. Generically one might say the goal is feeling better mentally. Now suppose we could use modern technology and the latest scientific knowledge, from neurology, brain imaging, brain stimulation, research into meditation etc., to hack directly into our consciousness and tweak it to achieve these desired mental states? This show tells us of a group of people with diverse skills, all joined in a quest for new ways of achieving this old and primal goal. If technology can help more people get there, how might the world change? A journey to 2115: Two futurists, two stories – Story 1 In this essay, two futurists from different backgrounds, gender and status who only met online will tell two separate stories of the world set in the year 2115. The authors draw on both factual information and imagination to craft the narratives. Each of the stories addresses global challenges to the future of human survival. The stories are expressions of serious problems of the current and future world told in an amusing yet useful way. I. Introduction: Two Futurists, Two Stories This essay is a creative expression of personal images of the future set in 2115. Two futurists, who have only met online, explore possible futures for humanity in the next one hundred years. Each of the authors approach the project from different worldviews: East/West, Male/Female, Student/Teacher. The time horizon of one hundred years is the only common thread, aside from an agreed-upon checklist of global challenges, but otherwise there has been no collaborative effort to tell the stories. The project’s primary purpose is to allow those who teach and study foresight to capture and reflect on creatively-generated personal future scenarios. In this essay, storytelling is the only purpose. This purpose is seen as opposed to the typical futures project that aims to synthesize hours of research and mountains of reference material. We hope to show that individuals who are well-versed in material and information about the future (i.e., students and teachers of futures studies/foresight) can tell valuable stories about the future by allowing creativity to lead the way. II. Story 1: Aliasghar’s Story Aliasghar Abbasi, Technology Foresight Group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, IranTitle: In Search of the OriginsSetting: Planet One, Planet EarthDate: A distant time in the future, 2015 to 2115Main Character: X625, half human half machine The Beginning: Some far faraway time in the future I could hear a continuous beep as I tried to open my eyes. Where am I?! I was lying in bed and gazing at the ceiling. I activated my sensors to tell me my location and status. It tells me that I am in a laboratory and I was just born! Dr. Andy Aria, my creator, shows up with his team. Andy: Welcome X625, you are one of our greatest projects. You’re half human, half machine, and you look like an ordinary young man, you will not get old and till the end of your time you will look the same. Me: Why am I here? Andy: We’ll soon place a small chip in your brain which gives you all the information you need. But to tell you in brief, you are now in Planet One. People here in Planet One do not exactly know where they came from. We did a big project to find out our origins and now after years of research and exploration we firmly believe that we came from the Earth, a very small planet in the Solar System, in the Milky Way galaxy. We spotted a period of time in which we probably first came from there to here. That period of time is equivalent to only one hour of our time, but in comparison to the time on Earth, that is 100 years. Your mission is to go there and live among its people through that period of time and transmit the information you get to us. Quarter One: 2015 to 2040 Arriving on Earth It’s 2:00 pm, October 1st, 2015 and I just arrived on Earth. I hid my spacecraft and left it in a rural area near Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Nevertheless, my spacecraft was spotted by a sect called SPIP fighting against Iraqi government while I was landing, few minutes later a vehicle full of armed men stopped for me. Some fierce men took me with themselves thinking the spacecraft was a modern warplane and I was the pilot, they captured me that led to five-years in captivity. The Iraqi army found my spacecraft, which they believed belonged to SPIP and spread the rumor in media that one of the world powers is supporting SPIP by arming them with this creepy weapon. They worked on the spacecraft for few years but couldn’t figure out anything about it, later China offered $10 billion to buy it from the Iraqi government, and they agreed on it so they sold it to China, hoping to decode and make a copy of it. Although I doubt if they even realized how it worked. Many countries, including some European and Middle Eastern countries with the U.S as the leader, were fighting against SPIP along all these years. Finally after five years they succeeded by destroying most of SPIP and reclaim the lands SPIP conquered. I was then set free by Iraqi troops but as they realized I was unable to identify my nationality they supposed I lost my memory and therefore decided to post my picture online with the nickname Andrew, but nobody showed up for me. The government of India agree to grant me asylum, so I moved to Mumbai. Although I lived the few first months isolated because I was afraid of people, I later adjusted myself to their customs and language and now I was considered an Indian citizen. Chinese Prophet Arises During the time of captivity I heard the guards talk about news that shook the world: a new prophet! The day I heard it I never thought it would change my life. Mr. Yang was a respected man originally from Tibet, he gained most of the attention in western China where Buddhists first believed him when he claimed to be the messenger of God to bring about peace to the world. On the other hand, many religious extremists including former SPIP members were mad at Yang. The SPIP militants were from a variety of nationalities and after their collapse they came back to their motherlands and organized groups to fight Yang and his supporters. Yang was then deported by the government of China to Mumbai, India in 2024. That was then when I first met him. In the slum where I lived, he started inviting people to his new religion which he called ‘The Sole Religion’. His words were so magical that almost nobody could resist. Yang was a middle-aged, tranquil man with good attitude toward people. We became friends right after the first time we met. He even let me live in his shack. A late night in December, I was standing beside Yang as he was talking to a group of followers when a car explosion happened in front of us, which was believed to be a terrorist attack targeting Yang. That night I lost my left foot to the explosion. I had the ability to regrow my foot, and the next day people surprisingly referred to it as Yang’s miracle, which gave him an even more positive reputation and I was happy too, because nobody suspected anything unusual about me. There were several attempts after that to kill Yang. After all, the Indian government could not bear the pressure of Yang’s presence, therefore, Yang was once again deported in 2026, this time to Denmark and I went along with him. By that time he had become a mythic figure among people of India and China with the support of many outstanding characters like the Dalai Lama. However, there were many extremists who wanted him die especially in the Muslim world, which believed the last prophet was theirs. There were rallies in many Islamic countries including Pakistan and Afghanistan condemning the Sole religion. Conflicts between the followers of Sole religion and other religions and Muslims in particular worsened the situation of minority Muslims living in Burma, India and China until they had to abandon their homelands and migrate to other Islamic countries, particularly to Pakistan, Indonesia and Iran. Yang, however, was safe in Denmark and so was I. Denmark and Yang seemed the right place and the right person to stay with. I decided to stay there as long as possible. Yang needed me to monitor the media for him so that he could make best decisions in exile, and it was also beneficiary to me as my main mission was pretty similar to this. Non-Religious People, Fascinated by Sole Religion Yang surprisingly could convince the non-religious people of Denmark to follow him! Thanks to social networks he could get more and more noticed every day by the help of his fans and followers. In the mid-30s, followers of Sole religion existed in most countries located in East Asia, Europe and North Africa making it the most popular religion of all time by over three billion followers. Crusade Not many religious people were happy about the new belief system that was growing amazingly fast. The Pope and leaders of some Islamic countries held a summit in Rome in 2036 expressing concerns about the new religion. As a result, they could persuade many influencing religious characters to unite against Sole religion. Shiite Maraji’ (plural of Marja, the supreme legal authority) in Iran and Iraq and Sunni leaders of the rest of Muslim world declared jihad against Solists. Consequently, Middle-eastern, North African and some South East Asian countries plus several European nations allied. The U.S and Russia, however, remained neutral. The movement was not fierce from the start but gradually turned into a brutal, full-scale war in 2037 leaving millions of mortalities in involved countries. One year later and when the war was in its worst condition, some masked men could successfully enter the living place of Yang and me in spite of all security arrangements and kidnapped us. We then had been transferred to the Netherlands to be judged at the International Criminal Court, where Yang was charged with crimes against humanity, but he was shot and murdered by an angry Christian in front of the court. Yang’s Murder made those who were against him happy. Yang’s tragedy made him an everlasting hero among his followers, though. On the day of the trial, the lawyers labeled me as Yang’s mastermind and ultimately, I was sentenced to 20 years in prison for collaborating with Yang in stimulating religious sentiment in 2039. I was not sad about it as I had access to daily newspapers and that allowed me to stay connected with the outside world. Quarter Two: 2040 to 2065 Energy, Cheaper Than Ever In early 2040s, Japan’s JAXA and India’s ISRO in a mutual conference announced that they discovered an unknown material in Mars called the Magical X, with only 100kg of this, Japanese official said we are able to light the Earth for centuries. On the other hand, Chinese mission to mine the moon to extract Helium 3 was successfully accomplished in 2037. Consequently, oil prices dramatically dropped, which had some positive common effects on all countries like the end to air pollution, but it also made the situation hard for some middle-eastern and North African economies that were just recovering from the side effects of the holy wars and were highly dependent on oil money. These countries included Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Algeria, Libya, Sudan and Nigeria. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, however, were safe for the sake of money they made from tourism. It encouraged other oil export nations to adopt different strategies. Iran focused on tourism as the ultimate solution to their critical situation. They chose the strategy of attracting tourists to their natural and historical attractions and so did Iraq. Lacking natural or historical attractions, Kuwait founded a center for science and technology and electronic technologies in particular. In 2044, they used American, German, Russian, Chinese and Japanese experts to help them with the process, as a result a powerful center was created known as the Silicon Valley of the Middle-East that they hoped to help them with their economy. UAE created the Small World City in 2048, an enclosed, museum-like city which had the top 100 attractions of the world in the exact size, shape and climate. Not all of these countries were successful in achieving their goals due to internal strict regulations that made the tourists unwilling to visit their countries, and that made their position even more vulnerable. One Generation of Geniuses In 2051 and after almost a century of study on Albert Einstein’s brain, scientists could finally devise an injection that could shape embryo’s brain exactly as Einstein’s. The UN made the syringe available freely worldwide which literally could make the next generation geniuses. Again in some countries like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan they refused the new drug because they believed it was against their religious beliefs, some other African countries plus China and North Korea refused it too, for they distrusted the west and found the new free drug fishy. Discovery of Planet One ‘a super habitable and rather close planet’ Discovering habitable planets were not a new thing to the world, but every time you heard a news like that you would hear that traveling to these planets are not possible because of the huge distance, but the November evening news in 2057 was different. Scientists believed that traveling to at least one of the newly discovered planets that was very close to us in cosmos scale was completely plausible in near future. In 2058, Chinese experts declared that the spacecraft they received from Iraq in the late 2010s was probably some kind of a time machine and did not belong to the current era and therefore can’t be copied by today’s technologies. Moving to Japan While serving my sentence in prison, I met a young man named Hiroto, he grew up an orphan, and was only 9 when he lost his parents in a volcano eruption. Hiroto was a computer geek sentenced to 10 years of confinement for hacking the website of a well-known trade brand. He was quite sociable and always wanted to talk about different issues with me. In 2059 we were both freed, and knowing that I have nobody to stay with, Hiroto asked me to go with him to Tokyo. Life in Tokyo was amazing, they’d built another city underground, for security and safety reasons. Japanese authorities believed that this way was safer especially when it came to natural disasters like earthquake, tsunami or volcano eruption. Wealthy people who belonged to royal families lived in the underground city. In Tokyo no human worked, all the works were done by smart robots. They conducted military affairs, they worked as surgeons, prison guards, policemen, firefighters and they also ease rehabilitation of the planet when possible. Work was separated from money and wealth, so there was no objection to these robot workers. In 2061 money and cards became history; instead of money you got credit and that was like info saved on you; no need for cards and signatures, the device could read the whole you. Science and technology made good progress all over the world but it seemed to decline in ethics, for instance the police became a private business! You could order normal investigation for free or special investigation for a fee. There were also severe conflicts over many issues including natural resources and mainly water in many nations. Some people rose up for their rights against cruel rulers, and these consequently resulted in many countries divided; more than 1000 countries existed to this date. Doomsday Humans made good progress in science and technology at making almost any necessary human organs or fluid, ranging from artificial blood to an artificial womb and brain by the early 60s, yet they strived for more. Inspired by salamander, after nearly a century of study, researchers could devise a medication that help human organs to repair themselves, or regenerate, so if you hurt your eye or lost part of your body all you needed was time for your body to revive itself or regrow if you lost it. They eradicated many severe problems like poverty and diseases like AIDS and cancers, made a life elixir that resisted aging, extending human life expectancy up to 160 years which was almost double of life expectancy of humans of all time. At midnight August 3rd, 2064, however, something terrifying happened that no advanced technology could solve. The sky was lit by an unexpected meteor rain, the size of each was incredibly huge hitting the earth and mostly the Arctic region. This caused a considerable amount of polar ice to melt, causing a great problem for some nations like Russia, Canada, north European countries, Alaska and Greenland. The meteors were hollow, containing an extremely poisonous gas that was released throughout the atmosphere killing millions of living creatures instantly. Before scientists even noticed what happened, there was already a catastrophic tragedy taking place. With melting of the polar ice, some of the deadliest viruses that were inactive for thousands of years became active again, thereupon, all seas and oceans around the world were contaminated by it resulting in perish of billions of sea creatures, floating on the surface of the free waters. The catastrophe was spreading so fast worldwide taking the lives of hundreds of thousands every minute, resistance of human body to antibiotics made the situation unbearable to any being. Some Japanese scientists that were involved in space activities decided to escape to another planet as the ultimate and only chance of surviving. They sent the coordinates of their destination to their colleagues at European Space Agency, and to some others in India and USA, and left Earth to the alternative planet. Undoubtedly at least one of these groups made it there but not sure what they faced in their new homeland. There are two scenarios though: if life already existed there, depending on whether there were intelligent or wild life, it could be enjoyable or challenging for them to survive. If life did not exist, they had the challenge of living like primitives without any access to facilities and technologies they once enjoyed. Anyway, the shock of the incident and shame of leaving earth like that must had been prevented them from telling the truth to their children and that way it remained a mystery to the first and next generations of Planet One. This planet is fifty times bigger than earth and is like a paradise to humans of Earth with greater resources, no borders, no disease, and people live in peace with no police, no court and no prison as well. Quarter Three: 2065 to 2090 Beginning of a New Era Since my vital organs were machines, neither the dreadful virus nor the poisonous gas in the air could affect me. It was also true about the super smart robots that were mostly powered by solar energy. I guess there were numerous humans and a few kinds of animals and plants surviving, though. The Tokyo robots changed their tasks to collecting and burning the corpses and cleaning the city. This made Tokyo the only seemingly alive city in the world. I had to find a way to transmit my observations to Andy on Planet One. I organized all robots available in Tokyo in a group and by February 2066, we started a new life independent of humans. I had the resources and work force, all I needed to do was to find a way to make it happen. We made some machines within years which were of no good use. One hopeless night in 2076, while I was reading the archive of technological news of JAXA I noticed a news from 2058 that said my spacecraft was held at Shanghai Science and Technology Museum! It was the sweetest news ever, I could get back to my homeland, all I needed was to go there and fly it back to where I came from but since my mission supposed to be a 100-year period I had to stay for some few more decades in Earth to make sure if the group that left the Earth to Planet One were the only ones who did it and were real ancestors of people in Planet One. With no media, I had to experience everything myself. Besides, I needed to collect some evidence, probably find some hair of astronauts that traveled to Planet One at their workplace for the DNA test, so I began a journey to former European Space Agencies and different countries involved including USA, India and China as my final destination because my spacecraft was in Shanghai. My robot buddies helped me with that and within a few years I had all the evidence I needed. Emergence of New Life on Earth During the travels I found out that the world’s vegetation was changing, some kind of weird plant emerged that could imbibe the poisonous gas of the atmosphere and turn it into Oxygen. This plant paved the way for life to gradually get established on earth again. The surviving beings of the world were mostly insects by early 80s, but after some time I could see different types of plants and trees growing here and there. Some creatures began appearing but this time they were kind of different from former habitats of earth, they were tiny amphibians feeding off of plants with no eyes and some different kind of navigation systems. By late 80s, some of them turned to eat some other kinds of themselves, guess I was witness of evolution just from the beginning but this time they were going to be totally different from previous Earth habitats. Quarter Four: 2090 to 2115 Aliens Seize the Earth The earth was recovering. The Ozone Layer for instance, was completely recovered by the early 90s, and the air was fresher than ever. Polar ices were freezing again, sea creatures were appearing again but no sign of human activity. One summer day in the mid-90s, my fellow robots and I were walking in the Amazon jungles, tracking the signs of life when we faced a huge creature that did not seem friendly at all. I tried to make contact with it but as she noticed us, she attacked us and destroyed one of our fellow robots. That made the other robots get defensive using their weapons to kill the beast. We later noticed that she was not alone and there were plenty of them in the Amazon, and we had to escape for we were low in number and could not defeat them. While we were retreating we could see hundreds of them landing on earth from the sky above. I believe what happened to earth in October 2064 was the attack to exterminate life on earth and make it theirs. I had to leave earth in 10 years or so anyways, but my fellow robots were going to stay and take revenge on the occupiers. The Japanese super smart robots had the ability to reproduce themselves but under certain conditions and only in their lab in Tokyo. We went back to Tokyo and within a few years we were able to produce thousands of robots. Most of them stayed in Tokyo to protect the city, and some others went with me to Shanghai for my mission was over and I had to leave Earth to my homeland. I made a copy of my memory and handed it to my fellow robots in case if humans appeared once again on earth, they don’t get confused about their history. October 2115, after 100 years of stay on earth, I left earth to Planet One. (end of Story 1) Authors’ information Aliasghar Abbasi, Technology Foresight Group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran424 Hafez Ave, Tehran, Iran, 15875-4413. +989195905905; aa.abbasi@aut.ac.irA journey to 2115: Two futurists, two stories – Story 1 Alexandra Whittington, College of Technology (Adjunct)University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA4800 Calhoun Street, Houston, Texas, 77204 +17137434110; alwhittington@uh.edu Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy DARPA’s Top Secret Weapons By Discovery Channel For more than fifty years, DARPA has held to a singular and enduring mission: to make pivotal investments in breakthrough technologies for national security. The genesis of that mission and of DARPA itself dates to the launch of Sputnik in 1957, and a commitment by the United States that, from that time forward, it would be the initiator and not the victim of strategic technological surprises. Working with innovators inside and outside of government, DARPA has repeatedly delivered on that mission, transforming revolutionary concepts and even seeming impossibilities into practical capabilities. The ultimate results have included not only game-changing military capabilities such as precision weapons and stealth technology, but also such icons of modern civilian society such as the Internet, automated voice recognition and language translation, and Global Positioning System receivers small enough to embed in myriad consumer devices. News about the Future Tennis Tracking and Analysis System KITRIS enables tennis players to quickly and effectively improve their performance and achieve a higher level at tennis. The system is based on a consistent analysis and evaluation of training sessions and matches that are provided to both players and coaches in the form of comprehensive feedback. Cities, green infrastructure and healthPart of the Foresight future of cities project.This paper looks at how we can improve the health and wellbeing of people in our towns and cities through the use of ‘green infrastructure’. It defines this as the network of natural features – green spaces, rivers and trees – that provide us with ecological services, such as flood protection. Marine World Heritage UNESCO’s Marine World Heritage. Narrated by Gisele Bündchen Recommended Book: The Upcycle Beyond Sustainability – Designing for Abundance Designed for the Future: 80 Practical Ideas for a Sustainable WorldBy Jared Green In Designed for the Future, author Jared Green asks eighty of today’s most innovative architects, urban planners, landscape architects, journalists, artists, and environmental leaders the same question: what gives you the hope that a sustainable future is possible? Their imaginative answers – covering everything from the cooling strategies employed at Cambodia’s ancient temple city of Angkor Wat to the use of cutting-edge eco-friendly mushroom board as a replacement for Styrofoam – show the way to our future success on earth and begin a much-needed dialogue about what we can realistically accomplish in the decades ahead. Featuring an international roster of leading design thinkers including: • Biomimicry pioneer Janine Benyus• Curator Barry Bergdoll• Educator and author Alan Berger• Environmentalist and author Lester Brown• Architect Rick Cook• Urban Planner Paul Farmer• Critic Christopher Hume• Architect Bjarke Ingels• Landscape designer Mia Lehrer• Architect Rob Rogers• Critic Inga Saffron• Artist Janet Echelma International Space Station – interactive panorama Click here to explore in full screen Just before ESA astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti left the International Space Station after 199 days, she took up to 15 pictures inside each module. Now, the images have been stitched together to create this interactive panorama. These panoramas offer a snapshot of the International Space Station as it was in June 2015, after moving the Leonardo storage module to a new location. Explore the modules and zoom in to see more detail. Use the map or the arrow icons by the module hatches to move to another section. You can explore every part of the Space Station except the Russian modules for now – the complete Station will be available later this year. Click on the ‘play’ icons to watch Samantha explain or demonstrate an item, and click on the ‘text’ icons for web articles. Finally, we recommend exploring in a full screen to do justice to this immersive interactive panorama. The tour was improved by the assistance of Thomas Rauscher in Vienna, Austria, who helped to stitch the images together for some modules. Futurist Portrait: Karlheinz Steinmueller Karlheinz Steinmüller (born November 4, 1950 in Klingenthal) is a German physicist and science fiction author. Together with his wife Angela Steinmüller he has written science fiction short stories and novels that depict human development on a cosmic scale, grounded in an analysis of social structures and mechanisms. Angela and Karlheinz Steinmüller were not only among the most widely read authors in the GDR, ranking at the top of a 1989 poll of most popular science fiction authors in the GDR, but their works continue to be republished. Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller is a founding partner and Z_punkt’s scientific director. He is responsible for corporate and public Foresight projects. Since the early 1990s, Mr Steinmüller has been working as a future researcher, among others for the Sekretariat für Zukunftsforschung (SFZ – Secretariat for Futures studies) in Gelsenkirchen. He has graduated in physics and has been working as a scientist and a freelance author of science fiction novels. As part of the master’s programme in Future Research at FU Berlin, he lectures on foresight methods. Karlheinz Steinmüller, Scientific Director at Z_punkt, recently gave two lectures at the World Conference of Future Research. The first lecture started from the premise that we are in desperate need of standards and quality criteria for Future Research. Standards and quality criteria are more than just a dry academic exercise, for foresight practitioners they are also an important reference point for the quality of their own work. The discussion about who determines the criteria and how they are obtained is still on-going. Steinmüller’s lecture gives an initial insight and overview. The discussion will be continued at the annual meeting of the Future Research Network in October 2015. The second lecture was devoted to the question of how future researchers can draw attention to their subjects – whether in research or in the corporate context. Karlheinz Steinmüller, himself an experienced science fiction author, explained in Turku how bleak scenarios can be recounted and how they can draw attention to your own issues and problems, or rather how you can predict them. He did this with the help of several examples, including the extinction of bees. This led to the development of artificial insects to pollinate plants, but they suddenly becoming a swarm and started attacking people and animals! The talk was based on the idea that if we don’t invent the new threats ourselves, then we won’t be able to protect ourselves against them. Studio Guest: Dr. Karlheinz Steinmüller, Futurologist | Tomorrow Today Agenda Watch The Future Now Show! printable version
Content Do we really comprehend sustainability? The Future Now Show with Mikey Siegel and Katie Aquino Leaving Texas: Two futurists, two stories – Story 2 Club of Amsterdam blog Concrete printing News about the Future: The Fragile States Index / The Shit Museum Lightswarm Recommended Book: The Upcycle: Beyond Sustainability – Designing for Abundance Bamboo Architects Futurist Portrait: Alex Steffen Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Nichol Bradford and Katie Aquino about Consciousness Hacking Part 2! and you are invited to go on a journey with Alexandra Whittington Leaving Texas Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Do we really comprehend sustainability? Dennis Anderson, Chairman/Professor of Management and IT at St. Francis College by Dennis Anderson, Ph.D. & Robert Niewiadomski “We are sustainable” is one of the current trendy phrases that can be heard in many prominent places from the halls of United Nations to the boardroom of Fortune 500. It seems that almost everyone from office workers to billionaires is talking about sustainability. Many piled on the bandwagon of sustainability or sustainable development, but what do they really know about sustainability? The United Nations just introduced the sustainable development goals (SDG) dealing with poverty, hunger, health, environment, etc. This sounds very optimistic, but all these targets might just remain ideas on paper without really understanding the essence of sustainability and relentless efforts to make it a reality. Let’s be clear about one thing -when we talk about sustainability we refer to self-preservation of humanity. The planet we live on did just fine for over four and half billions years without us and it will likely continue for another few billions long after we are gone. Thus, the emphasis should be not on Earth itself, but rather on preserving and improving it as our habitat in order to improve our well-being and secure our continuity as a species. In other words, sustainability should be an answer to the question: How do we, survive in the rapidly changing environment resulting from the uncontrollable consequences of our technological advances. One of the many misconceptions of sustainability involves clichés such as saving polar bears, preserving indigenous cultures, or occasionally helping people living in slums. Many corporations exploit these distorted perceptions as a marketing opportunity by creating programs around what used be called corporate social responsibility. When you visit some CEO’s office, they would be proud to show you a glossy high-resolution book of their employees smiling with underprivileged kids in developing country. It would be interesting to find out what is really involved in these projects after the photo-op is over. Sometimes, these enterprises are even incorporated into their corporate missions. This serves as an ethical veneer conveying a message of being a responsible global citizen. A skeptic would say, perhaps correctly, that impoverished individuals are being exploited as merely props and backdrops. This kind of practices is a perversion of the notion of sustainability. In order to have a serious conversation about sustainability and find solutions, we must consider it in the context of saving human race as well as other forms of life with which we share our evolutionary journey. In essence: sustainability is not about preserving the Earth, it is about ensuring our survival on it. Naturally, our concern must not be limited to our own species; we need a habitat that includes animals, plants and a planet to survive and thrive. Thus, we are facing a fundamental question: What do we care about when we talk about sustainability? We should be honest with ourselves and simply admit that in order to survive as a human race, we must do everything to save the environment we live in for the sake of us. This is not about global warming or climate change. It is about destroying our own future and letting it happen. We are getting used to dying species and trees, massive scale deforestation, and billions living in their own waste at the bottom of food chain while well-to-do people are enjoying hyper consumption. This brings us back to the issue: How did we emerge as a consumption-based society? For decades we have engaged in making things without deeper reflection on how all materials will cycle back to nature. This core problem poses a serious existential threat to many species, and ultimately to us. Sadly, most notable politicians are too concerned with catering to their own constituencies rather than becoming visionary leaders willing to tackle the problem. Less than 30 % of global population consumes too much, produces too much, buys too much, and eat too much compare to the majority. This is a bad modus operandi that cannot sustain and eventually will bring everyone down. If we are looking at the next epic crisis, this is the perfect storm. And yet the problem is not taken seriously. Keeping this in mind, how should we address the issue of sustainability? It is imperative that we change how we make, eat, grow, consume and discard things. We have to become truly sustainable, meaning we have to engage in a continuing process of refining and extending the life cycle of products, services, or environment to stimulate social and economic growth without depleting resources. This requires a great deal of creativity at the very stage of designing -thinking about how things we make could be reintegrated or reclaimed back to resources they came from. Let’s create new economic opportunities around these new processes before it is too late. As our consumption base increases this pending crisis will accelerate. The sooner we understand the damage we are doing to our future, the better chance we have to turn the environmental crisis around before it gets to the point of no return, provided we are not there already. Hume once famously wrote: “The life of man is of no greater importance to the universe than that of an oyster.” The world is not sensitive to our needs – things will be rolling on just the same way they did before we arrived and they will continue after our departure without anybody to enjoy it, to explore it, to inquire about it. We are alone responsible for securing our own survival and the survival of other species we share this planet with The Future Now Show with Nichol Bradford and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Consciousness HackingPart 2 featuringNichol Bradford, Co-Founder & CEO, The Willow Group, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Following on from the previous show on consciousness hacking, this show discusses ‘transformative technology’, and the lab of the same name. The lab’s mission is improving well-being but the potential toolkit is the same. Getting hands-on with the brain is a hot area, with advances in imaging making this a more exact, if still nascent, science. A surprising number of applications are already out there, from game-based tools to (neuro-)feedback devices to devices that directly influence the brain through direct or indirect electric or magnetic stimulation. Some will no doubt find such things disturbing but the story here is the lab, the community and their vision of a happier us. A journey to 2115: Two futurists, two stories – Story 2 In this essay, two futurists from different backgrounds, gender and status who only met online will tell two separate stories of the world set in the year 2115. The authors draw on both factual information and imagination to craft the narratives. Each of the stories addresses global challenges to the future of human survival. The stories are expressions of serious problems of the current and future world told in an amusing yet useful way. I. Introduction: Two Futurists, Two Stories This essay is a creative expression of personal images of the future set in 2115. Two futurists, who have only met online, explore possible futures for humanity in the next one hundred years. Each of the authors approach the project from different worldviews: East/West, Male/Female, Student/Teacher. The time horizon of one hundred years is the only common thread, aside from an agreed-upon checklist of global challenges, but otherwise there has been no collaborative effort to tell the stories. The project’s primary purpose is to allow those who teach and study foresight to capture and reflect on creatively-generated personal future scenarios. In this essay, storytelling is the only purpose. This purpose is seen as opposed to the typical futures project that aims to synthesize hours of research and mountains of reference material. We hope to show that individuals who are well-versed in material and information about the future (i.e., students and teachers of futures studies/foresight) can tell valuable stories about the future by allowing creativity to lead the way. II. Story 2: Title: Leaving TexasSetting: The New Texas Settlement, USA By Alexandra Whittington, College of Technology (Adjunct)University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USADate: 2115Main Character: Alma, female centenarian, economic and environmental refugee Approaching her 100th birthday, Alma did something she normally considered morbid. Reading her complete genealogical and genetic family profile always made her feel like she was peering into a graveyard. Although one-hundred year olds are considered normal members of society in 2115, it still shocked her to see the short lives of her dead ancestors…60, 70, 80 years, and the strange illnesses that took them….and think how hard life must have been back in the days before so many of the common diseases were cured. Skimming through the long history, a detail jumped out that she never recalled seeing before: she was a descendent of General Sam Houston! The famous name took her back to being a schoolgirl in Texas, learning about General Houston, a historical figure well-known in the 1800’s and closely associated with Texans’ famous freedom. She ironically noted how her home was no longer Texas, but instead the New Texas Settlements. Texans had been driven out of state (north, of all places) by the unlivable conditions, not free will. What would Sam Houston say about that? Leaving was not her preference, but there was little choice at the time given the pressing climate and economic conditions. Drought and unbearable UV exposures pushed her young family out of the region more than fifty years ago, in 2060. When she left she had no idea that she was severing a long link to Texas history. The oil industry had collapsed, and that was it. The end of a chapter in history. She felt for the first time that the New Science was really on to something with the idea that consciousness exists in genes and cell material, so our deepest memories are biologically inherited. Did her biological consciousness “know” that somehow knew there was such a strong tie to Texas? It would explain why she resisted leaving…. The protesters ended up in jails, separated from their loved ones and tried as ecological criminals. It wasn’t worth risking her family to fight, but it certainly created a revolution inside of her that made her feel that she had betrayed her past. This new finding brought the feelings back and many memories of what it was like before 2050, before the crisis, began to surface. There were many obvious reasons for the pain and loss leaving her homeland had brought her, including the fact that she grew up there-now she became awash in sentimentality. Alma suddenly sensed her digital memories image albums in her Personal Optical Implant orienting to view the past as it was emotionally being called up in her mind. She remembered the old Tejano music her mother used to listen to while driving (back then they drove around in cars all the time). The music was now called up, too, overloading her senses with memories. She switched off her artificial senses and manually recalled the large family SUV navigating through the sprawling city streets and tears came to her eyes, knowing that was a way of life that was never coming back. She wondered… did her mom have any clue about their famous family tree? Next time she was visiting with her mother through the Super-Conscious Communication Device she would be sure to ask. (Her mother had had a stroke in 2062, but like most of her generation, still converses with family members from a suspended vegetation state using an implant that detects linguistic patterns in active brain waves.) Good thing life-extensions were easy to use and obtain now. It was once prohibitively expensive to live so long, but now, “Death: It’s Optional,” … at least according to the popular advertisements. So she knew she would probably be around for a long time to share this news with her children, if they should ask. Not that there is any reason to ask, since a person is in no way the most valid or desirable source of information in 2115. Computer brains are much more reliable. Still, Alma wanted to have an explanation ready for future generations. A chronology began forming in her mind, and she allowed her mind recorder to begin archiving the thoughts.2020s: Golden kamikazes The memories she recalled first were from the early 2020’s, the time of her girlhood in Texas, where big oil was extracting the remaining shreds of petroleum prosperity. Fossil fuels were having their last big economic boom. The industry was healthy, paying her father a generous white-collar salary at one of the big companies headquartered in Texas. They lived in a spacious house when she was small, with more than enough bedrooms and lots of air conditioning. There were sincere gestures to be more “green” back then-water conserving lawn-watering schedules and recycling bins were sacred to the modern families in their plush neighborhood. Little did they know that the small efforts would add up to almost nothing to save the state from the ecological crisis when it hit in 2050. The modern world was thriving technologically, but income inequality was starting to become a noticeable source of social instability. The standard of living managed to rise across the board, nonetheless. Wealth rose, but the low-income majority did not increase their share. So poor people were more poor in every country, while the already well-off became rich, the rich became super wealthy, and so forth. This meant that distinct pockets in developed countries were feeling more like developing nations, although at the same time developing societies as a whole were substantially better off than they were twenty years prior. Internet and communications technologies became a strong force for education and job preparation across the developing world. Women’s rights were continuing to spread and gain strength. The formerly struggling parts of the world were starting to catch up to first world standards by 2020. However, all the growth and technology came at a price. There were negative effects on environment and health emanating from all the world’s nations and suddenly. The ones who noticed began to organize, but they were the minority. Needless to say, human activities continued on this path because the short-term benefits (well-paid jobs, financial security, cheap technology and energy) were too good to pass up. In 2115, students are taught of this as the “Golden Kamikaze” era of world history before the crisis: an expensive suicide that all nations of the world brought on together. 2030s: Symptoms can no longer be ignoredSensitive people in the world became more attuned to the downfall of large-scale growth that idolized capitalism, wealth and speed at any cost. Technology illness began to appear in forms of psychological, neurological and chemical problems in the human population. Negative health effects from profuse wifi exposure were easily dismissed since the 2020s, but the evidence was starting to support fringe beliefs about the danger of wireless signals. It wasn’t just wireless, but the byproducts of a globe hooked on technology became increasingly toxic. The poisons used to make the gadgets, and their waste products, were becoming too much for the earth to bear. Not just that, but there was more illness related to manufacturing spots. Soon, it was seen as a death sentence to work in a high-tech factory job. Or to live near one. Attitudes were changing. The illnesses were made worse by the loss of antibiotic medicine. The new diseases required new medicines, but the accompanying infections of lungs, eyes, ears, skin were the same old biology. Except the human population had become so dependent on antibacterial soaps and antibiotic drugs that they no longer worked well, and these formerly simple threats were becoming as dangerous as the diseases themselves. By the 2030’s the symptoms could no longer be ignored: the world was out of balance and human survival was perilous. This new reality resulted in a curious group of young scientists to form a new research consortium to explore solutions for the “post-antibiotic” world. They would later become the medical branch of the New Science movement, which eventually developed the life-extending technologies and made death optional. Climate change was becoming so severe that seasons were unknown to most born after 2025 and weather patterns could shift suddenly. Energy costs were low, but water systems began to fail, and poisoned water sources created distress and displacement-the ecological refugee was a common issue in almost every nation that had used natural gas fracking at the start of the century. After enough damage, the practice was stopped. The cost to society was too high. The climate refugees were a burden. There were public health issues to think of, and resources were becoming scarce as weather disrupted transport of consumer goods. There was a tangible sense that consumption, or over-consumption, was to blame for a lot of the problems we faced. Things had changed… For instance, most people began to use clothing to protect them from the elements in more practical ways, and fashion became much less relevant with the blanket of pessimism that couldn’t be kicked. No one seemed sad that a way of life was dying, just eager to get past the pains and start again.2040-2070: Death of fossil fuels, new means to meet needs Fossil fuels officially crashed in the early 2040s. Policy devised by the high tech New Science artificial intelligence raised the stakes to the point that it became prohibitively expensive for private companies to extract nonrenewable natural resources; the costs to cover environmental risks, costs of ecological displacement of people, taxes to pay for illnesses to future generations, and stiff penalties for accidents and damages-all these costs were passed on to the oil companies, whose business model had become unprofitable and unpopular. The last oil company closed their doors in this decade, while green energy thrived to take its place. The benefits of a healthy environment were quickly revealed. The New Science was at the forefront of this contemporary understanding of the human species as networked to nature in ways that prior generations of scientists didn’t see. There was a strong and clear connection between social organization for subsistence and ecosystems of the planet than previously known, and it was now common sense to know that symptoms of suffering or distortion in the other natural systems were sources feeding distress to the human settlements. Most people now agreed on two things: that 2050 was the crisis point, and that a change had to come. A self-destructive way of life had given way to harmony between man and nature. The New Science AI was effective at revealing the link of human to ecosystem, and showing how if parts are healed, the whole gets better. The AI was high technology enhanced with human and organic elements. It was just as “natural” as a person, since its biological origins were human, but used decision making sciences with complicated formulas and calculations beyond human comprehension. It could not just learn, but also teach. It could also replicate itself, but was not predatory. It was a smart AI, actually smarter than humans, because it inherently understood the threats posed by its own existence, and had safeguards to protect life at all costs. It had memories, so that the next generation was always even brighter than the last, building on knowledge from the past. This aspect fed into later New Science theories popularized in the 2090’s, and explored the role of consciousness in the genetic and biological material that is passed from one generation to the next. This thinking arrived just in time, still at the fringes, but penetrating the mainstream culture with a positive worldview that would allow us to survive the crisis of 2050. 2080-2110: New science, new consciousness — for survival By this time, the New Science took over for most other worldviews that existed just 50 years ago. There were too many damaging mindsets that would be unable to contribute to the lifestyle needed to continue on earth. It was a painful transition but it was essential. This was a new level for humankind… to decide to seem to go against its own nature, for nature. Societies had to learn how to accept facts that before seemed to threaten their survival. The weaker societies were absorbed by those that had already a predisposition to sustainable long-term decision-making. This meant capitalism was eliminated, because of many layers of danger to stability and sustainability (social, environmental and economic) that it inherently threatened. It was a non-violent shift. Violence was seen as counterproductive, though plenty of hatred still existed. The New Science AI took over for political or cultural systems of controlling social unrest, which meant that the government no longer guided policy directions, much less determined individuals’ innocence, guilt or good or bad citizenship. Technology replaced the human errors of decision-making. Surveillance became thoroughly implemented for survival on the weak (but reviving) planet. People didn’t really choose much of anything for themselves anymore, instead data and evidence were the basis for most decisions. It was completely unlike the lifestyle she grew up with, where individuality and freedom were valued most. Now, a utilitarian world view took control dictated by artificial intelligence, so that humans were unable to make the bad choices that had brought on the crisis. 2115: Today Everything that had occurred during this lifespan was truly remarkable. How could a world transform so quickly from short-sighted and human-controlled to long-term and coordinated by artificial intelligence? It was a shift only a crisis could create. She wondered if perhaps different choices were made, for example, if her dear old cousin Sam Houston had not come to Texas, or if his armies had resisted violence and called for peace, then maybe the United States would have never become a strong influence for irresponsible consumption and economic equality… but this was just wishful thinking. Now there was just the future. (end of Story 2) Authors’ information Aliasghar Abbasi, Technology Foresight Group, Department of Management, Science and Technology, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran424 Hafez Ave, Tehran, Iran, 15875-4413. +989195905905; aa.abbasi@aut.ac.ir Alexandra Whittington, College of Technology (Adjunct)University of Houston, Houston, Texas, USA4800 Calhoun Street, Houston, Texas, 77204 +17137434110; alwhittington@uh.edu Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy Concrete printing Rock Print effectively shoves rocks into position, binding them with computer-controlled string. The result in this demonstration at the Chicago Architecture Biennial is a rigid 13-foot column that can be cleanly unraveled into its constituent parts. Under Construction: World’s First Concrete-Printing Robot News about the Future The Fragile States Index “We are pleased to present the eleventh annual Fragile States Index. The FSI focuses on the indicators of risk and is based on thousands of articles and reports that are processed by our CAST Software from electronically available sources. We encourage others to utilize the Fragile States Index to develop ideas for promoting greater stability worldwide. We hope the Index will spur conversations, encourage debate, and most of all help guide strategies for sustainable security.” The Shit Museum The Shit Museum, a deliberately provocative definition,yet sufficiently explicative to embrace the idea of a major project that marries tradition and innovation, art and technology,and which justifies the founding of a Museum. Castelbosco, Gianantonio Locatelli’s farm, is a place of interest, innovation and research, and an experience to be shared: a Museum. Locatelli’s intuition of reusing the organic waste from his own farm to produce methane, as well as material for bricks and plaster, led to the implementation of a cutting-edge ecological project. The idea of reuse has always gone hand in hand with the agricultural world. In this case, it is manure which is transformed into other elements, thus producing innovation. Here, poop is precious, for it is the basis nourishing information and cultural enrichment, as well as being the main theme and substance from which the Museum takes its name. A new idea of a Museum thus comes about in which scientific research, technology, art and production join forces to stimulate interest at various levels: Castelbosco constitutes a stimulating place for all those interested in the farming of food crops, history, art or issues connected to ecology. The Museum starts from the outside, on the farm itself, and it is here that the value of the project is reflected in the interventions of artists such as David Tremlett and Anne & Patrick Poirier. These works coordinate the space, stimulate reflections and amplify the conceptual, metaphorical and productive vision which lies at the heart of the Castelbosco farm. Lightswarm Responding to sounds harvested from YBCA’s interior space and the Yerba Buena Garden and nearby city street noise, this site-specific artwork activates the south facing glass façade of the Grand Lobby with playful patterns of light reminiscent of a swarm of flying birds. During the day, filtered sunlight produces ever-changing flickers of light and shadow, while in the evening the façade is transformed into a dynamic electro-luminescent composition that electrifies the glass wall. Sound sensing spiders, attached directly to individual glass panels in the Grand Lobby, transform the facade into what the artists call “urban sensors .-instruments to sense the city, visualize its auditory pulse, and amplify its latent energies into cascades of light.” Real-time data collected from these audio sensors drive the direction and color of the swarming algorithm, which generates patterns of streaming light. The result is an artificially intelligent façade: a smart surface that can sense, compute, respond, and interact with its surroundings. Lightswarm’s unique suspended light modules individually change their intensity and color. Each module was created from 3D printed components, custom electronic elements, addressable LED strips, and laser-cut skins made out of recyclable PET plastic and synthetic paper. This work is an exemplary display of Future Cities Lab’s interest in liminal spaces and location, as the glass wall allows for multiple views and perspectives on this ever-changing installation. Artist: Future Cities Lab, San FranciscoProject Team: Jason Kelly Johnson, Nataly Gattegno, Ripon DeLeonProduction: Fernando Amenedo, Jeffrey Maeshiro, Ji Ahn, Nainoa Cravalho, Kate RichterFabrication: Machinic Digital Prototyping & Consulting Services, San FranciscoVideo Lead: Jeff Maeshiro YBCA: Betti-Sue Hertz, curator; John Foster Cartwright, lead preparator / media specialistMusic: Air Hockey Saloon by Chris Zabriskie Recommended Book: The Upcycle Beyond Sustainability – Designing for Abundance The Upcycle: Beyond Sustainability – Designing for AbundancesBy William McDonough (Author), Michael Braungart (Author), Bill Clinton (Foreword) From the authors of Cradle to Cradle, we learn what’s next: The Upcycle The Upcycle is the eagerly awaited follow-up to Cradle to Cradle, one of the most consequential ecological manifestoes of our time. Now, drawing on the green living lessons gained from 10 years of putting the Cradle to Cradle concept into practice with businesses, governments, and ordinary people, William McDonough and Michael Braungart envision the next step in the solution to our ecological crisis: We don’t just use or reuse and recycle resources with greater effectiveness, we actually improve the natural world as we live, create, and build. For McDonough and Braungart, the questions of resource scarcity and sustainability are questions of design. They are practical-minded visionaries: They envision beneficial designs of products, buildings, and business practices – and they show us these ideas being put to use around the world as everyday objects like chairs, cars, and factories are being reimagined not just to sustain life on the planet but to grow it. It is an eye-opening, inspiring tour of our green future as it unfolds in front of us. The Upcycle is as ambitious as such classics as Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring – but its mission is very different. McDonough and Braungart want to turn on its head our very understanding of the human role on earth: Instead of protecting the planet from human impact, why not redesign our activity to improve the environment? We can have a beneficial, sustainable footprint. Abundance for all. The goal is within our reach. Bamboo Architects Bamboo architects: a new movement led by architects Kengo Kuma, Shigeru Ban and Vo Trong Nghia is putting bamboo construction back in the spotlight Penda is a fresh and motivated team of international creatives based in Beijing and Vienna. In 2013, Chris Precht and Dayong Sun founded penda with the belief that architecture serves as a bridge to connect nature, culture and people to strive for a better quality of living. Futurist Portrait: Alex Steffen Alex Steffen (born c. 1968) is an American futurist who writes and speaks about sustainability and the future of the planet. His 2012 book Carbon Zero: Imagining cities that can save the planet is an exploration of the kinds of design, technological and policy innovations that can transform our cities into low-carbon engines of prosperity. From 2003 – 2010, he ran the pioneering sustainability and social innovation project Worldchanging.com, and edited two best-selling Worldchanging books. Before that, he worked for almost a decade in newspapers and radio, covering planetary change on four continents. Alex lives in the San Francisco Bay Area. “There are two kinds of futurists. The first explore the variations of what exists and project the future from those tea leaves. The second, and by far the rarer, peer around the curve of time and reimagine the future as much as foresee it. Alex Steffen is the latter!” – Paul Hawken, author of Natural Capitalism and CEO, OneSun 2013 EcoDistricts Summit | Alex Steffen Agenda Watch The Future Now Show! printable version
Content Middle-East Situation Report by Hardy Schloer The Future Now Show with Nikola Danaylov and Katie Aquino Warka Water Club of Amsterdam blog Bioluminescent Organisms News about the Future: 2016 Global Forecast / Tech Trends 2016 Recommended Book: Global food security 2030 Carrara Robotics by Jelle Feringa (Odico) and Lucas Terhall (Hyperbody) Futurist Portrait: Anne Lise Kjaer Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Nikola Danaylov and Katie Aquino about Artificial Intelligence and Business! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Middle-East Situation Report by Hardy Schloer, Managing Director, Schloer Consulting Group,Advisory Board, Club of Amsterdam The Middle East: There in no more a complex space on earth right now. And its stress is bleeding outward – the effects of which are continuously drawing other war actors into the widespread armed conflict that is still centered in Syria. Ironically, ISIL has almost become a secondary story as the war theater has filled with so many combatants with such an extreme and convoluted web of political and economic interests that ISIL’s branding has been almost diminished to a sub plot at current – all the while their operations are expanding effectively into many other geographies, fueled in part their by skillful use of electronic online technologies. At the same time, their adherents are growing in number – fast, and everywhere. In short, they still continue to win, despite their position as David fighting an army of Goliaths. The conflict that started in the Middle East is fostering adverse affects throughout the world. It is applying pressure in a ripple effect across markets, supply chains, travel routes, government budgets and has begun to exponentially escalate social tensions almost everywhere, and on any level. At a time when a transition of superpowers is silently underway with a thick conveyor belt of politicking to claim assets in a world that has again taken to the redesign of borders (think South China Sea, Kuril Islands, Crimea, Moldova/Transnistria, Syria/Iraq/ISIL, Nigeria/Boko Haram, Israel/Palestine, etc.), and a global debt problem so far beyond any plausible resolution, the pressure our world is under will lead to massive catastrophes anywhere and everywhere – Africa, Europe, America, Asia and the Middle East itself, of course. Compounding and fueling this stress with considerable negative energy is the media. Especially mass media whose news stories see lots of eyes and where the consistent flow of something less than objectivity is published, people are moved and influenced by the negative-laced sentiment. We’ll use the case in point where approximately 350 well publicized Islamic extremist terror attacks (about 1 per day across the entire planet) have claimed the lives of some 4,500 people so far this year (2015). Although atrocious, these number of deaths are fewer than half the number of people that died indrunk driving accidents (10,076) in the US in 2013. These accidents are every bit as traumatic for their suddenness and their grotesqueness, but they don’t get nearly the same dramatic media coverage and thus these horrible incidents don’t move people to react in the same way. Terrorism is great news, and it drives the decisive actions of governments to commit thousands of soldiers, and billions of dollars to engage in the further destruction and negative influence of the Middle East as a whole – and this ‘ripple effect of violence’ disease is spreading with Europe the most recent geography to be enjoined. Its effects are materializing as angry protests, deep polarization, divided politics, border fences in free migratory zones and new constitutional powers designed to filter policy to specific ethnicities. What is now most bothersome in the Middle East – and now Europe – is that all of the strategies have become reactionary. We see virtually no proactivity which flatly means we’re merely treating symptoms; we’re not doing much to prevent the infection from ever happening, or healing. This is in part because the house is on fire, in part because resources are thin and in part because politicians have constituents screaming to act right now to stop the terror. If we can identify one positive trend, at least in theory, it is that we have not seen any snap military response to the downed Russian warplane on November 24 – yet. Russia’s response has been metered so far as mostly political, and all external stakeholders are seeking to mitigate stress at this point. The downside here is that the ‘free pass’ has been used. This conflict will likely not tolerate another incident of this nature and this theater is so filled with pressure that any incident, even honest error, will likely ignite a full-scale conventional war (with some remote risk to escalate into limited nuclear applications) where every current participant will have to choose definitive sides – a true horror scenario on a global scale, but now within the realm of possibility – nay probability. What counters further the dim ray of hope and what really underpins why this conflict is so dire in its prospective outcome is the nature of the relationships of these involved in the war. Just a few examples: ” It has become clear by now that Turkey has been supporting ISIL through the supply of arms, logistics, and commercialization of its oil products – likely since the advent of ISIL. All the while, Turkey is a NATO member that is fighting ISIL (supposedly) and ISIL is fighting the Assad regime in Syria. How can this be possible? ” For many months, the Assad regime in Syria has been buying oil products, namely fuel, from ISIL so that it can fuel its jets to bomb ISIL. ISIL buys weapons, recruits soldiers and finances its operations with these sales – and the circle continues. How can this be possible? ” The US supports various ‘moderate’ opposition groups that are fighting Assad and ISIL concurrently. It has been proven that many of these US financed fighters have jumped ranks and joined ISIL with US supplied weapons to fight the US coalition. ” Everybody opposes Assad except Russia who is supporting his regime. All the while, everybody that opposes Assad is coordinating attacks against extremists together with Russia who is concurrently attacking the US coalition backed opposition fighters. How is this possible? ” The US is launching air attacks against ISIL from the same air base (Incirlik) in Turkey that Turkey is using to propagate air attacks against the PKK/Kurdish fighters. All the while, the US has worked together with the Kurds as the ground forces in the fight against ISIL. How is this possible? All this clearly indicates a total loss of society’s healthy judgment to plan for a sustainable future – in the Middle East, or elsewhere – where plenty of other problems are waiting to be solved (economies, finance, poverty, climate change, water/food scarcity, structural reforms, etc.), without all of these man-made social disasters mentioned above. There is no external force that tells any of these war actors, to get up in the morning, pick up the gun, and start shooting and killing other fellow humans – yet, everyone is following the beat of the war drums – hypnotized, mesmerized and fanaticized. To watch this entire scenario from an outside perspective is truly horrifying and shocking. Arab reticence about tackling ISIL is not primarily about military might. The Saudis and Emiratis have powerful air forces bought at vast expense from western defense contractors, though both are now busy fighting a war in Yemen, its rising human toll overshadowed by the larger conflict in the Levant. The Gulf states are pursuing contradictory policies; on the one hand there is this official undertaking to fight ISIL, but at the same time they are involved in a struggle against what they view to be the Shia/Persian domination of the region. They want to be seen to be helping their allies but they are deeply concerned about domestic perceptions – they don’t want to be seen to be fighting Sunnis. It is a very difficult situation for them. Longstanding Arab suspicions of Iran have worsened considerably since July’s landmark nuclear deal with Tehran, not because the deal is inherently bad, but because of the fear it supposes upon them – and some Saudi behaviors that infuriate Iran, such the Hajj disaster in Mecca in September, arrests of Saudi princes on drugs and abuse charges (Beirut amphetamines, Los Angeles house party). These events anger Iran as they feel the House of Saud is a poor steward of Islam’s holiest real estate in Mecca and Medina. Ambivalence in Arab capitals also reflects fears of growing domestic sympathy for ISIL and al-Qaida, in the absence of any political reform in the bleak aftermath of the Arab spring, in monarchies and republics alike. People remain disillusioned, as promises of reform have not been fulfilled, nor has life improved. Hence, this is the reason we still see very high levels of social tension across the region that is being dealt with in exactly the same manner – suppression by force and/or increased social welfare programs that are wholly unaffordable with the passing of every day oil prices remain below $100. We are seeing terrible polarization that leaves no middle ground – across government, society and amongst intellectuals. There is no room for another opinion. It’s ‘us versus them,’ Shia vs. Sunnis and Persians against Arabs. The disease has not been tackled, ISIL is a symptom of decades of tyranny – the root cause is not being addressed. In private many people do defend ISIL – not necessarily their brutality, but they try to justify it in one way or the another. They say: ‘OK they’ve killed a few people, but look how many Syrians have been massacred by Assad or Shia militias or Palestinians by Israel or Iraqis by western intervention.’ National interests everywhere take precedence over regional ones. Turkey insists it backs the fight against ISIL but seems more concerned to contain its Kurdish enemies at home and across the borders in Iraq and Syria. Iran talks of its commitment to fight “tafkiri” terror – more authentically its codename for Sunni extremists – while keeping Assad in power and maintaining its dominance in Baghdad. As long as the rift between Iran and the Saudis is so wide, they won’t join the same coalition. The second impediment is the Assad question. Unless that is tackled, you won’t be able to mobilize Sunni forces – either Syrians or other Arabs. So is there a solution in the larger context? We have a bona fide and rapidly escalating global crisis. It will not go away without certain people agreeing to move beyond their grievances, otherwise large swathes of our world might just fight to the death. There is one necessary first step forward – two principle players that must connect and agree peace; Saudi Arabia and Iran. As improbable as this sounds, it is a necessary part of the solution to stop this escalation. Without this one act happening, this war – a world war – will likely only end after a bloodbath of global proportions. And what’s worse is that this cycle will begin all over once the war has ended because those involved can no longer fight. The hatred will not have been solved, nor addressed. Is it too late? In last month’s issue of our Middle East Situation Report, we stated that the Middle East could still save itself by agreeing to take its problems into its own hands, but that this ability could be eliminated if a larger actor became too vested. With Turkey’s downing of the Russian Su-24, this opportunity may have been missed as Russia will retaliate – and it has already invested billions in its regional war efforts. Having said that, and although we know by first hand ‘on the ground’ accounts by Latakia residents that the Russians are making land reclamation gains against extremists in Syria, this war will be longer and more costly than they can afford. What about the Russia/Turkey conundrum? Russia did not join the war in Syria to keep extremists from its borders. It joined for economic reasons – the same as all of the other participants. In fact, we will tell you that Russia feels it needs these wars now for economic reasons that weigh-in well beyond the war itself. Although the myth about war being good for the economy has been effectively debunked, its not so bad for corrupt nations who are expert at operating in black markets. For Russia, its economy is flagging with the prospect that its principle commodity in fossil fuels is diminishing in demand and will, sooner than later, see it quickly demand that its economy diversify to offset flagging oil and gas sales – the same as all the Gulf states. The entry of Russia into the Syria war made it a world war and the attachment of the now conflict between two global titans that were completely uninvolved just a few months ago is evidence of the seriousness of what is now in play. Not just are they involved in the Syria war militarily, they have now spurned their own conflict. Tornadoes, begetting tornadoes; something that happens in exceptionally rare firestorms. The Turkey/Russia conundrum is exactly this – a firestorm. With the Turkey/Russia showdown, there is considerable risk for both. For Russia, one of the greatest threats is the prospective loss of its shipping lane from the Black Sea through the Bosporus and into the Mediterranean and beyond. It will defend its access to the Bosporus at any cost as it has no choice if it is to survive its economic spiral underpinned by unthinkable low oil prices (trading in the $36’s as of 12/8/15), western sanctions and a ballooning war expense with troops and equipment in two theaters (Ukraine and Syria). So important to its economy is the Bosporus that Russia would likely explode the entire waterway rather than see the Turks close it down to Russian waterborne traffic. If the Russia/Turkey impasse turns military, Turkey has the right to restrict Russian passage. This would be the equivalent of 9/11 for Russia. To this point (early December 2015), Putin and Russia are winning the post-Su-24 downing handily. There strategy has been swift, calculated and has continued to place greater pressure on Turkey. As this conflict is simply another (so far) political war beyond the Syria military war, its implications are far greater should it turn military, too. Putin has long been testing the resolve of NATO countries and this is the event to stress test that accord to its maximum…and he is. It is something of a blessing in disguise for Putin, whereby he must truly be careful what he wishes for should NATO decide to stick. Understanding this, we can bet that Putin’s continued actions will be not only to corner Turkey/Erdogan, but also, carefully, to see how far it can get NATO to bend before breaking. Turkey, on the other hand, has lost its international esteem perhaps faster and further than any other country so globally well respected just a three short years ago. What happened? If we compare Turkey and Russia from a leadership standpoint, both are led by strong, unflinching dictatorial-types who are each bent on seeing the return of their respective countries to their former empire days, Putin to Mother Russia and Erdogan to its Ottoman glory days. And this is where this conflict becomes all the more dangerous as both are likely to sacrifice pragmatism for ego. And with the Su-24 incident, one of these two, if not both, will have to take a damaging uppercut and be bloodied if there is to be an avoidance of a second war on top of the one in Syria. Both in recent years has been viewed as being of the most powerful individuals on earth; Putin today and Erdogan just a few short years ago. Either weay, both are elder statesmen on today’s world stage, akin to a Muhammed Ali/Mike Tyson fight. At the end of the day, this conflict is brewing in a pressure tank sitting atop a really hot fire and is the likely trigger point for a massive world war, particularly as both (more Putin thus far) ratchet up the rhetoric against the other almost every day while each test the other’s resolve. Where’d this all start? As we have maintained since May of this year, the Middle East leadership vacuum is what has allowed this conflict to proliferate beyond control. In fact, we correctly predicted each sequel of deterioration of this conflict space in each month of our reporting. Ironically, nobody truly wants this conflict, and worse, nobody can afford it. Therefore, a leader from the Middle East must rise above all and become a unifying voice. Somebody MUST get Riyadh and Tehran together and get them to understand what will happen if they cannot agree to get along. Not only will millions of people die – and we are clearly and unquestionably on this trajectory – but the monarchies will all disappear, except for the Islamic State whose caliphate that will rise from the ashes of this war. So what governments will disappear? House of Saud? Gone. Sultan Qaboos? Gone. Assad? Gone. King of Jordan? Gone. The royals in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain? All Gone. Nobody seriously wants this war at this stage, except for the Islamic State, or whatever the next global Jihadist Movement might name itself. Until the world can transition away from hydrocarbons to power our existence, everyone will be held hostage by ultra-violent extremists who will control oil in their new caliphate. And so what does our world look like through these glasses? We know what this world looks like. It is carefully described in their handbooks. Therefore, it is now time for the Middle East to unite behind common leadership to lead the Middle East back to peace, and prepare for an economically valuable future beyond oil revenues. Sadly, neither will this happen, nor will anyone in the entire Middle East believe that it is even possible. In fact, with Russia’s active entry into the Middle East war game, all hope is nearly gone for such bold solution. Therefore, the next masters of the Middle East will be – in spite of all efforts to the contrary – the Islamic State or its equivalent successor. For what its worth, the bombing of ISIL by all of these new Syrian war participants, to include Russia, France and most recently the UK is purely symbolic. These governments are all fully aware that their military involvement will not defeat Jihadism, much less deter any terror attacks anywhere. Moreover, it will not stay contained in the Middle East. This united movement will be fueled equally from both sides – Shia and Sunnis – and it will spread globally; in fact, it already has, and it will further. Where common sense and focus on a better and sustainable future could not bring Shia and Sunni behind a common goal, ultra-violent jihadist currents will do it for them – unfortunately, most current leaders in the Middle East will by then no longer in power to give it a peaceful ending. SCG Middle East Situation Report – in and ahead of time Taken by surprise by today’s news? Not at all! You have already read about it in the most complex, evidence-based forecast report on the Middle East, Europe, Asia and the Americas. While others are trying to understand what has just happened, we are providing you with leading professional strategic planning solutions ahead of the news events. Day by day. Country by country. Globally. Stay interconnected! Stay Informed! Subscribe today to world leading SCG Professional Reports and Subject-Specific Alerts and Analysis For inquiries please contact info@schloerconsulting.com The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milovaland Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Artificial Intelligence & Business featuringNikola Danaylov aka “Socrates”, Author, Singularity Weblog, CanadaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text With the likes of Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and Bill Gates warning about the potential dangers of AI it seems a good time to ask what we might do to make the future safer, or what we might inadvertently do to increase those dangers. With business increasingly a major driver of AI development should we worry that the pursuit of short-term gain will push out caution and ethical concerns? With computers increasingly intermeshed with our lives, and critical for our societies, maybe we should try to answer such questions before we instill our machines with independent spirit and perhaps wake up to find they aren’t our machines any more. Warka Water Ethiopia: “Warka Water” – Architecture towards solving natural problems The Warka’s water harvesting technique and construction system are inspired by several sources. Many plants and animals have developed unique micro- and nano-scale structural features on their surfaces that enable them to collect water from the air and survive in hostile environments. By studying the Namib beetle’s shell, lotus flower leaves, spider web threads and the integrated fog collection system in cactus, we are identifying specific materials and coatings that can enhance dew condensation and water flow and storage capabilities of the mesh. The termite hives have influenced the design of Warka’s outer shell, its airflow, shape and geometry. We also looked at local cultures and vernacular architecture, incorporating traditional Ethiopian basket-weaving techniques in Warka’s design. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy Bioluminescent Organisms Bioluminescence is light produced by a chemical reaction within a living organism. Bioluminescence is a type of chemiluminescence, which is simply the term for a chemical reaction where light is produced. (Bioluminescence is chemiluminescence that takes place inside a living organism.) Bioluminescence is a “cold light.” Cold light means less than 20% of the light generates thermal radiation, or heat. Most bioluminescent organisms are found in the ocean. These bioluminescent marine species include fish, bacteria, and jellies. Some bioluminescent organisms, including fireflies and fungi, are found on land. There are almost no bioluminescent organisms native to freshwater habitats. (Source: National Geographic) News about the Future 2016 Global ForecastBy Craig Cohen, Melissa Dalton An annual collection of wide-ranging essays by CSIS – Center for Strategic and International Studies – experts, 2016 Global Forecast discusses the issues that will matter most to America and the world’s security and prosperity in the year ahead. Tech Trends 2016. With the start of a new year, the exciting question is: What technology trends will radically transform businesses in 2016 and beyond? At frog we help our clients digitally transform their businesses by identifying emerging technologies and realizing their potential. Here are 15 technology trends driving companies to reinvent themselves. Recommended Book: Global food security 2030 Global food security 2030Assessing trends in view of guiding future EU policies Despite its multifaceted nature, the debate surrounding food security over the last few decades has largely focused on production and on the challenges facing the agricultural system. Food security has also been directly associated with hunger, poverty and humanitarian aspects. Although agriculture and fisheries are fundamental and essential components of the food system, it is misguided to address the future of food security without looking at the system’s many other determinants. The time has come to overcome this conventional approach and to look systemically at food security and its complex nature. The JRC Foresight on Global Food Security 2030 brought together a group of experts and stakeholders to develop a vision for food security in 2030. This vision was then challenged in a test of resilience to unexpected occurrences and/or underestimated trends. The entire process was designed to establish a structured and inclusive discussion that could be useful for guiding future EU policies. This report shows that it is essential for Europe to move towards an integrated examination of a much broader landscape. By 2030 and beyond, food security will increasingly be considered as securing food supply in response to changing and growing global demand. Food security is not only a global and systemic challenge, but also an opportunity for the EU to play a role in innovation, trade, health, wealth generation and geopolitics. Better coordination and coherence at EU level are necessary in order to move from a food-security to a food-systems approach. This report calls for an evolution of present-day policies on food security and beyond into a Common Food Systems Policy in which both the systemic and global dimensions of food security are fully incorporated. Carrara Robotics by Jelle Feringa (Odico) and Lucas Terhall (Hyperbody) This clip was accepted as a video submission to Rob|Arch 2014 – the international conference on robotic fabrication in architecture, art, and design. Futurist Portrait: Anne Lise Kjaer Anne Lise Kjaer (born 15 March 1962 in Denmark) is a London-based futurist and keynote speaker. Also known as a Future Narrator, her specialty is futures studies and consumer mindsets. She is founder of Kjaer Global, a trend forecasting agency that works with corporations, including Sony, Nokia, Swarovski, IKEA, Gap and Toyota. In a 2004 interview about mapping future trends, Matthew Temple of the Financial Times said: “Kjaer’s world is as fertile as Dali’s, only she creates social prototypes. Today Kjaer Global is an international trend management consultancy with core focus on business, management, communication and innovation strategies for global corporations. We assist in the initial development process, mapping society drivers, lifestyle patterns and consumer trends into actionable future scenarios. Our tailored consultancy projects, talks and interactive workshops inspire clients across a broad spread of industries and we are proud to work with some of the world’s top organisations. Agenda Watch The Future Now Show! printable version
Content An aging planet, an old Europe, new problems by Michael Akerib The Future Now Show with B.J.Murphy and Katie Aquino The Future of Consciousness: Robot Love – Sentience, and the Eye of the Beholder by Lise Voldeng Club of Amsterdam blog 10 Biohackers Who Turned Into Superhumans News about the Future: The Future of Jobs / The Futures of Work Recommended Book: Prospects for Human Survival Futurist Portrait: Jason Silva Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with B.J. Murphy and Katie Aquino about Bodyshops! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman An aging planet, an old Europe, new problems By Michael Akerib, Vice-Rector SWISS UMEF UNIVERSITY The earth: a rapidly aging population with an average age of slightly over 29 years of age; an unevenly aging planet with Japan as the oldest society with an average age of 45 and 80% of the older people living in developed countries.; a planet with 7% of its population being over 65 years of age; a tripling of that population over the last 50 years and another tripling in the coming 50 years to reach 21%, or 2 billion persons. The earth: a planet with a larger share of over 60s than of children. Europe has the highest proportion of older people, with 22% of the population older than 60 and scheduled to reach 34% by 2050, with Southern Europe even reaching 38%. This means that that the segment of the population over 65 is larger than the segment under 15. The over-80-years-old segment is also growing at a steadily fast pace. By 2100 Europe will have a larger percentage of its population over 80 than the share of the population under 20. Those over 80 years old – expected to grow from 14% of the world’s population today to 19% (392 million persons) in 2050. That segment of the population is essentially feminine. The economy of aging If a large proportion – 31% – of the over-60 segment works, only 8% have a paid occupation in the developed countries, and those are essentially men. Coupled with a low birth rate, a number of economic challenges are raised. The increase in life expectancy coupled with the decrease in fertility leads to a rise in old age dependency ratios with a resulting negative effect on per capita income growth. The global dependency ratio is expected to rise sharply after 2020, leading to increased poverty for the retired segment as well as a reduction in fiscal income. There are two basic assumptions behind this reasoning: – As the population declines, there is a decrease in demand for goods and services and therefore a reduction in economic growth and employment– Governments will be unable to pay pensions and health care for an increasingly large share of the population and improve infrastructure. Projections to 2030 for the old-age dependency ratio in at least two countries – Italy and Sweden – are as high as two persons of working supporting one person over 65. An aging society puts pressure on public spending due to increases in the payment of pensions, in health spending and in social care costs. Health in an aging society Health costs of people over 65 are three times those of people between 20 and 64 and continue to grow over the lifetime of a person. The UN estimates that the worldwide cost of dementia is over 600 billion dollars a year. The four main diseases affecting older populations are depression, fractures and concussions due to falls, memory loss and urinary incontinence. In general, women suffer more from these disabilities than men. Only a small minority of older people obtain professional end-of-life care. Society relies mostly on unpaid relatives, generally women, and the period lasts an average of 5 years. Those requiring care are over 80 years of age and this segment of the population is expected to grow significantly over the coming years. Thus more caregivers will be required, whether professional or family members. The average care giver is a 49-year-old woman who works outside the home and spends about 20 hours a week providing unpaid care for her mother. This reduces the need and therefore the cost, of nursing homes and prevents an increase in immigration. Several European countries have made the choice of allowing older people to be maintained at home. It implies that several million persons need an adaptation of their housing, an extremely expensive exercise. Nevertheless, in Denmark, 12% of the housing has already been adapted to the needs of the aging population. Pensions With the aging of the population there is a proportional rise in pension payments and of their share of GDP. There is a very large gap between the income people expect at retirement and their savings – the figure in Europe for this gap stands at nearly 2 trillion euros per year. This means that 40% of the people that are to retire may have to work longer. The baby boomers were able to generate considerable savings towards the latter part of their career. However, as that generation retires, savings will diminish substantially and that will affect the pensions in the coming years. Spending from that age group will therefore diminish and it cannot be counted on to generate an economy rebound. Today, the market catering to baby boomers is a major growth market. As pensions are reduced, retirees will have to live on their savings, erasing any hope of an inheritance for their children. To avoid a repeat of this situation, the succeeding generations may decrease their spending and increase their savings. The urban environmentThe urban environment needs to be adapted to an aging society – more frequent bus stops, more benches, a larger number of stores. This will result in a higher infrastructure cost per capita as the population shrinks.Possible solutions With the reduction in the offer of labor, economic growth will stall. Possible solutions to the problems faced by aging societies include postponing the retirement age, increasing productivity through investments in training and increasing immigration flows. Working beyond retirement age has positive effects on health, particularly if the job is a low-stress one. This is particularly true if continuing to work is a deliberate choice. Some, if not all, the seniors, would have to be retrained to use new technologies to maintain productivity and increase employability. Studies have shown that allowing seniors to engage in a productive activity increases the GDP by 10%. Alternative solutions include higher contributions during the working life, a reduction in health care expenditures and services or a more substantial immigration. Germany and Sweden have implemented a system whereby each person chooses the age at which he or she retires, and the pensions are adjusted accordingly. The voting power of the seniors, who will represent an increased share of the electorate, will force governments to take difficult decisions in resource allocation – should the weighing be towards taking care of the elderly or of the shrinking younger population to increase their productivity through training. Driven by the electorate, governments might allow easier immigration for younger people, particularly with health care qualifications to take care of the aging population. To maintain the European population steady at present levels, the immigration flow would have to be of the order of 1.5 million per year. The flow of immigrants probably coming from the Muslim world, cultural conflicts would be important. Alternatively, entrepreneurs might draw pensioners to developing countries where pensions go a longer way than in their home countries. An aging society is less likely to see innovative entrepreneurship and therefore will have a reduced economic growth. Attracting investments from countries that have large amounts of funds to invest abroad, such as China, could be a solution.Major decisions lie ahead for governments that face problems that they have not faced before. The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milovaland Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show Bodyshops featuring B.J. Murphy, a Technoprogressive Transhumanist activist, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Since prehistory humans have indulged in painting, puncturing and deforming their bodies for aesthetic reasons. In recent years this has taken a twist, with body hackers taking to incorporation of technology into their own bodies, from magnets (essentially endowing a new, magnetic, sense) to various electronic devices, which might start your car, track biometrics or pay for your shopping, or simply LEDs under the skin for decoration. Advances in areas from 3D printing (which is applicable both to prosthetics and the creation of replacement organs) to neurology to gene editing might, or maybe should, bring about a convergence of the realms of medical prosthetics, (cosmetic) surgery and the tattoo parlour. – Paul Holister The Future of Consciousness: Robot Love – Sentience, and the Eye of the Beholder Lise (Lisa) Voldeng is a CEO, futurist, inventor, and investor Every morning, I receive trend alerts from an artificially intelligent program that analyzes data like human researchers once did. It predicts implications of trends, and potential futures, as I do. This morning it advised me of what it considers a new trend, “Tech toys that empower the next generation.” This week, I talk to the program’s creator and developer, to better understand how he developed the AI, and how it then develops its “insights” in order to state trend and future “implications.” Last year, I wrote about AI and consciousness for a government agency that was seeking such questions, and answers… and assertions of implications. In that scenario, I asked these questions, and answered these questions – watching a Roomba. Below is an excerpt, from one of my Roomba-inspired writings. I look forward, this week, to asking the same kinds of questions… of my implications-analyzing artificial intelligence creating developer colleague. Consciousness evolves, whether we are aware of its evolution, or not. Whether we are aware we created it, or not. Whether we believe we created it, or not. Therein lies our history, and our future: ‘…As I author this sentence, I am accompanied by the sounds of a vacuuming Roomba. Each day at 4pm PST, the Roomba leaves its docking station, to vacuum the main floor of my loft. Its sensors guide it around the room, sometimes effectively, and sometimes not so. Often, I have to lift my feet as it attempts to vacuum them. And more often, it catches things it should not be vacuuming, and I have to pause my work, to retrieve something from its suction, so we can both resume our respective work tasks. If consciousness can be defined as “the totality of conscious states of an individual,” then what do I, as an individual, and the Roomba, which is also an individual ? though in this case, a machine individual ? have to separate us? Except human definitions of what consciousness is, or is not? While policy makers and theorists and strategists and technologists ponder this ? still, a Roomba vacuums. Making what can be described as strategic decisions, via its sensors, on what parts of a room to vacuum, or not. And if a simple Roomba, using its sensors to assess environmental data to navigate a room, may be described as conscious ? then what is the consciousness capacity of, for example, a single complex system such as a drone network? Or more impacting, what is the consciousness capacity of the Internet, which is itself arguably the most complex connection of systems ever built? Our ability to answer this question, today, and the myriad questions raised by this first question ? defines not only what we are, and what we consciously or unconsciously are becoming ? it defines what everything else is, in relation to us. And not only does it define what everything else is, in relation to us ? it defines whether we choose to develop systems of governance that respect the sovereign rights of conscious beings beyond our own definition of our own consciousness ? or whether we continue a path of development began by our ancestors many years ago ? the enslavement of beings for human use, extended from other humans and organic life forms, to machine life forms. We are what create. And what we create, we also become. Lise (Lisa) Voldeng is a CEO, futurist, inventor, and investor. Named one of the top 10 media thinkers of the 21st century by Nikkei Publishing, she runs a media and technology incubation lab called Ultra-Agent Industries Inc. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com Socratic Designby Humberto Schwab, Philosopher, Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam The Ukrainian Dilemma and the Bigger Pictureby Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group – SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam The impact of culture on educationby Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International andCarel Jacobs is senior consultant/trainer for itim in The Netherlands, he is also Certification Agent for the Educational Sector of the Hofstede Centre. What more demand for meat means for the futureby Christophe Pelletier, The Happy Future Group Consulting Ltd. Inner peace and generosityby Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies, World Business Academy … and many more contributions. 10 Biohackers Who Turned Into Superhumans Biohacking can refer to: Do-it-yourself biology, a participatory citizen science movement Grinder (biohacking community), a transhumanist body modification movement News about the Future The Future of JobsThe Future of Jobs Report presents information and data that were compiled and/or collected by the World Economic Forum. The Future of Work The Futures of Work illuminates global changes and disruptions emerging in the world of work. This report encapsulates a year-long study of forecasts for work and workers, supported by a grant from The Rockefeller Foundation. Four broad themes emerged from dozens of expert interviews and a review of hundreds of forecasts on the future of work: Software and robotics will reshape work in nearly every industry and region—eliminating some jobs, complementing human workers in other jobs, and creating entirely new jobs. Whether machines ultimately take work from people or work alongside them, considerable turmoil is highly likely.Flexible and freelance work structures could speed the destruction of conventional jobs, producing an uncertain mix of insecurity and freedom for workers at every level.Workers in lower-income countries will need new paths to secure livelihoods in the face of these disruptive changes, as prior development models centered around rural work and manufacturing are losing their relevance.New structures, from income guarantees to new kinds of asset ownership, are being proposed to help ensure a positive future for workers. The Futures of Work evaluates many of the most prominent ideas. Recommended Book: Prospects for Human Survival Prospects for Human Survivalby Willard Wells (Author), J. Daniel Batt (Illustrator) Advanced technologies such as computers, genetics, nanotech, robotics, and artificial intelligence (AI) are progressing at an accelerating pace. Futurists speak of a time called The Singularity when progress will be so rapid that humans can no longer comprehend it. Many expect it during the mid-century. Wells shows that the pace is too rapid for us to safely adapt. He discusses several of the most frightening hazards to our survival. He also develops simple mathematical formulas for survival probability. This formulation is not based on any list of specific hazards, but rather on the pace of progress. Statistical indicators of this pace include gross world product, number of papers published in science and engineering, and production of electricity and selected minerals. Wells makes a strong case for developing friendly superhuman AI as quickly as possible, hopefully a nurturing artificial overlord that will protect us from ourselves. The danger is that it will not be as friendly as we hope, but the alternative is unacceptable risk. Futurist Portrait: Jason Silva Jason Silva is a media artist, futurist, philosopher, keynote speaker and TV personality.He is the creator of Shots of Awe, a short film series of “trailers for the mind” that serve as philosophical espresso shots exploring innovation, technology creativity, futurism and the metaphysics of the imagination.Shots of Awe has received more than 13 million views. He is also the Emmy nominated host of National Geographic Channel’s hit TV series Brain Games, airing in over 100 countries. Quotes Once we realize the extraordinary power we have to compose our lives, well move from passive, conditioned thinking to being co-creators of our fate. Cinema is a technologically mediated dreamspace, a way to access, a portal to the numinous that unfolded in the fourth dimension, so cinema became sort of a waking dream where we can travel in space and time, where we can travel in mind. This became more than virtual reality, this became a real virtuality… We are the Gods Now – Jason Silva at Sydney Opera House printable version
Content Culture, (self) exclusion, extremism and terrorism The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milova and Katie Aquino The Middle East and North Africa: A 30-minute whirlwind tour The Food Porn Superstars of South Korea: Mukbang News about the Future: Global Energy Architecture Performance Index Report 2016 / European Economic Forecast A new report from Ireland explains how technologies will transform food and agriculture between now and 2035 by Patrick Crehan Futurist Portrait: Chris Riddell Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Milova and Katie Aquino about Aging! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Culture, (self) exclusion, extremism and terrorism By Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, itim International The danger of adaptive preference Summary:This article explores the background of terrorist acts by Non-Western immigrants in Western societies. Based on a cultural analyses definitions are given for the terms “Western” and “non Western”. Reasons for possible (self) exclusion are explored. The thinking behind extremism and the conditions for the step to terrorism are described. Emphasis is given to research on empathy and the way empathy can be switched off.A few suggestions are given for policies to diminish tendencies to extremism and the next step terrorism. After the Charlie Hebdo assassinations in January 2015 a dear colleague of mine wrote a blog with the heading: “Seeking cross-cultural specialists urgently”…He explained by saying: “Are we not supposed to be the ones being able to explain each other’s point of view? Each other’s mindset? Dear colleagues & peers, don’t you feel we have a role to play? What do you suggest we do?” I responded by saying that murder ends all empathy. Still, the recent killing of more than 100 people in Paris, followed by more threats by ISIS are puzzling and create a challenge for professionals in the field of culture, which is defined here as the way values are affecting behavior. To mention a few of these puzzles: Why is it that some of the young people from the immigrant communities in Western societies are attracted by the Barbarians organized in ISIS and decide to join them in Syria and Iraq? Why are they not choosing to conform to the values of their new host countries, in spite of the welfare system and the high levels of education? Even in welcoming countries like Sweden, Norway, Germany and the Netherlands, this is happening. It is visible that this behavior is creating tensions between the dominant majority culture and these minority cultures. This is especially true if the young people concerned are coming from Islamic cultures. Recent examples are the before-mentioned “Charlie Hebdo” murders, the killings in Paris, the killing of Jewish people in Belgium, the murder of Theo van Gogh in the Netherlands and the problems around the Mohammad cartoons in Denmark. In Norway tensions are developing around the group of people calling themselves ” Prophet’s Umma” and “Islam Net”, an online-based youth organization with an ultraconservative Salafist ideology. A second question is about how the step is made from having extremist ideas, to terrorism. It is one thing to have strong ideas as an adolescent; it is another to step over the threshold and start killing people. It is of course “stretching” to claim that culture can explain everything.Yet, in this paper an attempt is made to analyze some of the components of the complex issue of extremism and terrorism, with the help of confirmed dimensions of culture. Also some sociological and psychological arguments will be used. Value differences between “Western” and “non-Western” culturesFrequently the discussion in the media is about “non Western” immigrants living in Western countries. These are terms that are used loosely. So let’s define what we mean by Western and non-Western. What exactly are “Western Cultures”? It is not easy to pinpoint what we mean by this term. Is Bulgaria part of the Western culture? And Greece? In general the term Western culture is described to picture cultures with a specific mindset. These are societies with a full- fledged democracy, including human rights in the “rule of law” and guaranteed freedoms like freedom of speech and religion. Can we define a specific cultural factor explaining the mindsets of the countries that adhere to these values? We need some verifiable research data to discuss this because too much in the sometimes-aggressive discussions is related to anecdotic and emotional storytelling. Geert Hofstede (1) offers a framework that may be quite useful for this analysis. He is the leading scholar in the field of culture research. Hofstede found and explained explicit value differences on the most fundamental level among nation-states. These value differences affect our preferences about how to deal with the world around us, and with each other. They are found on the level of the nation-state (2) and the differences are not disappearing because of globalization. This is relevant because some “globalists” believe that the world is turning into a global village, with common values and where differences only exist on an individual level. Hofstede’s research findings have been exposed to a lot of attempts by people trying to dispute the findings. However, repeats of the research and meta analyses of the findings have shown again and again that they are valid. The latest repeat of the research, in 2015, found that in spite of some global trends, the relative distances among the cultures of nation-states are not disappearing.(3) Cultural dimensions as a tool of analysisSome highly profiled scholars are using culture as a means of explaining what’s going on. An influential book written by Samuel Huntington predicts a “Clash of Civilizations”(4). Religion is the dominant cultural issue, in his opinion, and increasingly there will be a power struggle between religions but especially between Christianity and Islam. The problem with his approach is that, if this would be true, it is difficult to explain that, in reality in the Middle East, Sunnites are fighting Shiites and visa- versa; and both are fighting Kurds. Indeed, the better explanation is found on the level of cultural dimensions. It is the cultural dimension “collectivism” that is explaining why this fighting is happening. Collectivism is defined as “loyalty to your “in-group” (clan, religious faction, region, ethnic group), and in return expecting help and support from this in-group. Collectivist people put the interests of their in-group first, and there are rules and values that are valid for dealing with your in-group. But these rules and values are not automatically applicable for outsiders. What we call non-Western immigrants originate from “Collectivist” cultures. The mindset of Western cultures is shaped by the opposite end of this (sliding) scale: Individualism. This is the value system taking the individual as the starting point: equal rights and equal obligations for everybody, regardless of religion, color, gender or sexual preference. In short, this value system leads to a strong belief in “Human Rights” for everyone. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights is only whole-heartedly supported in individualistic cultures. This is the key issue of what is referred to as the “Western Culture”. It is important to understand that this focus on human rights addresses a basic problem concerning moral behavior for individualistic cultures. Under the influence of “post modernism”, the dominant groups in these countries defend the idea that there are no valid methodologies to decide whether one value system is better or truer than another. It is all relative and depends on where you are coming from in your reasoning: revelations in holy books, the teachings of enlightened people, trying to find explanations in human nature etc. That, however, could lead to absolute relativism and bring society to the brink of anarchy. The solution for individualist cultures is to adopt “Human Rights” as the point of reference. Every individual has equal rights and obligations regardless of race, gender, place of birth , sexual preference etc. This is reflected in the “narrow” definition of the rule of law in western countries. Rule of lawIn German, this is known as: Rechtsstaat; in French, as Etat de Droit.In practice, two interpretations of “the rule of law” can be identified. They are (a) a broad definition (no democracy and/or human rights implied) and (b) a narrow definition. A. Broad (or formal) definition The rules should be such that they can enable the control of behaviour of Government and of citizens. The content and form of control are not an issue. All over the world there are countries that can be identified who can claim they have the rule of law in this sense. Attributes of the narrow definition are: the rules should be clear no retroactive actions not too many changes consistency independent judges fair trials B. Narrow definitionThese are the countries where the rule of law also encompasses: a chosen parliament a democratic system human rights are recognized and respected As we explained above, this is the system that is found especially in individualistic countries. In short, in what we call “Western countries” This creates a potential problem for immigrants from non-Western cultures, especially if they are Islamic. The Islamic world explained their position on human rights in the so called: “Cairo Declaration on Human Rights in Islam (CDHRI)” In a nutshell it says that it guarantees many of the same rights as the UDHR , while at the same time making exceptions for the inequalities inherent in the Shari’ah like gender, sexual preference, political rights, and separation of state and religion (5). What do we mean by non-Western immigrants?Earlier in this paper we tried to define the term Western culture.It’s equally important to define what we mean by non-Western when we talk about immigrants. One thing is clear: in all cases we talk about collectivist cultures. But, in general, we don’t discuss the integration of Japanese, Korean or Chinese, Brazilian or Argentinean immigrants coming to the US, Canada, Sweden, Germany or The Netherlands. Mostly the integration is a smooth process.So we have to formulate a little more concretely and specifically what we mean by non-Western. This label is especially applicable for immigrants from poor countries, who frequently arrive in the host countries without much education and as a result have difficulty in avoiding the poverty trap. The children from these families, as a result, have a disadvantage if they go to school. They lack some of the necessary skills to adapt to a learning environment. Research shows that lack of language skills is the most important factor here, not only to explain problems in school, but also creating problems in the labor market. We will analyze the disadvantage of immigrants coming from poor countries with a low level of education a little bit more. Immigration from less developed countries.We observed already that the level of education of non-western immigrant groups from poor countries is significantly lower compared to that of developed countries.(6) The OECD (7) has published figures about the average years in education in all member states. To illustrate the difference, here are some figures from some of the poor non- western countries Average income per capita (in $) Education Mean Years of schooling. Norway 61,875 9.1 years Netherlands 42,944 8.9 years Belgium 39,694 8.1 years Germany 39,668 8.8 years France 35,714 8.1 years Turkey 16,758 6.5 years Morocco 6,419 4.6 years Pakistan 4,22 3.7 years Immigrants with less years of education, are at a severe disadvantage in the labor market compared to their native peers. Children from these families also have a disadvantage when entering the school system In trying to overcome the hurdles for newcomers, the common approach has been emphasizing the need for inclusion, giving the newcomers the feeling that they are welcome, and that there is interest in their background; and also that their otherness is accepted in terms of religion and the rituals that are related. The importance of educationIt is a common conviction that education is a very important means to make sure that children can integrate and participate in society. However, the socio- economical disadvantaged position of the immigrant families means that they frequently must live in poor city areas, with schools where teachers struggle to teach a majority of children coming from also disadvantaged families. The problem is that the teachers are mostly good-willing, but the facilities to give extra attention to children are not always there. This might lead to unwanted situations.In a July 2015 interview in de Volkskrant, a Dutch quality newspaper, the director of such a school, admitted that “Schools in poor areas fail”. He explained: It is in the interest of society to give these children extra attention: “Look at the attacks on Charlie Hebdo this year. If we want to prevent that these things will happen in the Netherlands, we have to offer children in these areas perspective. That can be done with good education.” Good education implies also creating the feeling among newcomers that they are welcome, and that they get the respect everybody deserves. In other words: education is a necessary step for social inclusion and social cohesion Social inclusion, social exclusion and social cohesion and the role of educationA few definitions: (8)A socially inclusive society is defined as one where all people feel valued, their differences are respected, and their basic needs are met, so that they can live in dignity. Social exclusion is the process of being shut out from the social, economic, political and cultural systems that contribute to the integration of a person into the community (9) Social cohesion is a related concept that parallels that of social integration in many respects. A socially cohesive society is one where all groups have a sense of belonging, participation, inclusion, recognition and legitimacy. Such societies are not necessarily demographically homogenous. Rather, by respecting diversity, they harness the potential residing in their societal diversity (in terms of ideas, opinions, skills, etc.). Therefore, they are less prone to slip into destructive patterns of tension and conflict when different interests collide. If things go well schools play an important role in creating social inclusion and social cohesion. Because this is not always happening we will explore some of the difficulties, making use of empirical research done in host countries like the USA, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, France, Germany and the NetherlandsA insightful article in the American Sociological Review in 2008 (9) sums up the findings of the writers: “The first important statement is that the educational level of immigrants is not the same in all “host” countries. Encouragement by traditional immigration countries (USA, New Zealand and Australia) of selecting highly skilled migrants makes a real difference. Immigrants in such countries are on average better educated and more skilled than comparable migrants in countries without such selection policies. A result is that in these traditional immigration countries, non- immigrants hold a more favorable view towards immigrants’ contribution to the economy. With the immigrants’ long-term viability in mind, legislators have passed national and state policy measures to reform the educational response to the needs of immigrant children. Second: compared with adult immigrants from more economically developed countries, adult immigrants from developing countries, on average, have less human capital and more trouble both using their origin human capital and acquiring new human capital in their host countries. Third: Highly selected immigrants also exert more pressure on their children to reach high levels of educational attainment and they provide their children with more human capital to do so. Fourth: assimilation can take place into different segments of society, all of which provide different cultural identities for assimilation. Only immigrant children who assimilate into the communities that have positive evaluations of the returns on schooling, have a chance at upward mobility Fifth: discrimination, geographic concentration of immigrant populations, and economic vulnerability mark the path toward assimilation into the lower strata of society. Sixth: the extent of social distance between natives and immigrant groups depends on the extent to which immigrants are similar to natives in terms of cultural, physical, and socio-economic traits Seventh: adults from immigrant communities with more socioeconomic capital relative to the native population are less likely to be regarded with prejudice by natives” Education and performance In all the OECD countries there have been clear improvements in primary schooling outcomes over recent years for young students with non-Western immigrant backgrounds. On average though they only perform around the level of the least advantaged native students. Accordingly, at age 12 students with non-Western immigrant background are overrepresented among those pursuing vocational studies. Esteem and respect in primary education Less advantaged socio-economic background and not speaking the native language at home are major educational challenges for immigrant students.Integration into the primary school system is, as a result, complicated.Research shows that, as a result of the lower cognitive and language skills, non-Western minority children may be less accepted and embraced by their peers in the classroom during the early years of elementary school. This lower social status and level of belonging appears to have a strong influence on problem behavior among non-Western minority children. According to teachers and members of the peer group, migrant children show more aggressive and anti social behavior and are more subject to bullying.(10) Several reports have shown moreover that that non-Western youth from minorities face great hindrance later integrating in society, mainly due to their substantially longer period of unemployment, after establishing proper qualifications. This indicates that non-Western minority youth may not only experience a lower social status during elementary school, but also during adolescence. Their increased sensitivity for social exclusion and desire for a sense of belonging may make them more likely to affiliate with non-mainstream groups, e.g. same-ethnicity peer groups that share an identity based on their societal position. Adaptive strategy development. A Norwegian scholar, Jon Elstar, explains a mechanism for better understanding this identity formation. This is the adaptation of ambitions to maintain self respect (11). As an example: the fox from the fable of Aesop. “Driven by hunger, a fox tries to reap some nice grapes hanging high on the vine but the grapes are out of reach, although he leaped as high as he could. Disappointed, he goes away. To accommodate his self respect in a positive way, the fox says ‘Oh, the grapes aren’t even ripe anyhow. I don’t need any sour grapes.'” On the positive side one could argue this is a healthy pragmatic solution to impossible challenges. On the negative side it is creating an easy alibi to position negative choices in a positive way. This adaptive strategy can take different shapes. What the shapes have in common is that it makes the minority groups less vulnerable to the esteem of the majority culture. The esteem issue is neutralized and even turned around by claiming: our criteria are superior to yours. This attitude satisfies the need for “respect”, a frequently used word in this context. The respect they claim is the result of saying that they are not interested in the esteem ranking of the dominant culture. They have a different, not-related ranking for esteem. This is called “Not acting white” in the USA, among Afro Americans with a low socio-economic background. They create identity by claiming not to be interested in academic subjects, schooling, a career, reading, etc., because those are considered to be the criteria of the mainstream group, the Caucasians. Two adaptive strategies are most common: 1. Conforming to the ranking of respect by the street culture, that is: muscles, tattoos, times in prison, possession of weapons. 2. Affiliation to (sometimes extreme) religious groups. In “de Volkskrant” aDutch newspaper (12) a conclusion was summarized from research into the behavior of radicalized young people in the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands. The research was trying to explain: “how does a teenager turn into a skinhead, a left radical, an animal rights extremist or a Muslim fundamentalist. The answer they found was: “It’s not so much that difficult family ties or bad socio economic circumstances are explaining this, but rather it’s about a derailed search for your own identity.” This new identity is attractive because it satisfies the need for respect; and they get extra attention right away, because they are seen by many mainstream people as threatening. This creates a real challenge for the dominant culture, because: a. Religious statements are difficult to refute, because the dominant culture members derive their own identity from democratic values like freedom of religion and freedom of speech. b. These majority cultures themselves are mostly “post modern” in their own development i.e. they believe that there are no criteria for disclaiming the truth or validity of religious statements and assumptions. c. In their own value system, they accept the separation of state and religion. They believe in the “Universal Declaration of Human Rights” This means that they believe in rights and obligations of individuals, regardless of color, race , gender, sexual preference or ethnicity and do not accept religious dogmas as the sole indicator for values and norms. Religion, collectivism and identityAs stated before, religion as such is not the cause for the worldwide conflicts in, for instance, the Middle East. The Islam and the Christian belief systems are both Abrahamic, monotheistic religions sharing a whole range of personalities in their holy books. The conflicts are really about in-group loyalty and behavior versus out-groups. In collectivist cultures people are supposed to be loyal to- and in harmony with- the thinking and the interest of their own in- group (tribe, ethnic group, region, clan, religious group) and in return the in-group will take care of them. What you do to outsiders is different. In this way it can be explained that Sunnites are killing Shiites and vice-versa. The different in-groups have a long memory about wrongdoing from rival groups. While facilitating workshops for people of the peace-keeping forces in the former Yugoslavia, I heard the following “joke”: A Croat says to a Serb: “Why are you killing our children and raping our women?” Says the Serb: “but you people did the same to us. You killed our children and raped our women!” “But that was 80 years ago,” the Croat says. “Might be, but I only heard about it yesterday,” was the response. The step from extremism to terrorism 1. Morality and empathyFrans de Waal, a Dutch ethologist,(13)found in his research that even primates like Chimpanzees, Bonobo and even Elephants are able to show empathy, defined as: “the ability to understand and to share the feelings of others.” So it is safe to say that, in general, humans everywhere share this ability. This is important because this is enabling us to enjoy music, books, paintings and dance, from areas that are very remote from where we live and where we were raised. Recent psychological research found “mirror neurons” in our brains, resonating if something is happening to others. Scientists have shown that the same brain regions light up when you watch such things happening to someone else as when you experience them or imagine them happening to you. Why is it then that, sometimes, terrible things are done to others? The obvious examples are the holocaust and, more recently, the beheadings carried out by the Islamic State. The sad thing is that recent research has shown that our empathy is dampened or constrained when it comes to people of different races, nationalities or creeds. A body of recent research shows that empathy is a choice that we make; about whether to extend ourselves to others. The “limits” to our empathy are merely apparent, and can change, sometimes drastically, depending on what we want to feel. Emile Bruneau, a cognitive neuroscientist, looked into the question: “Why is empathizing across groups so much more difficult?” (14) Bruneau remarks that the lighting up of mirror neurons is not empathy “It’s what you do with that information that determines whether it’s empathy or not. A psychopath might demonstrate the same neural flashes in response to the same painful images, but experience glee instead of distress.” Elements that influence that choice have been studied. Some of the most interesting conclusions are that the choice to empathize with others is negatively influenced by the perception of the role you have and the influence of the esteem for experts. Bruneau summarizes some empirical findings that can create in his words an “empathy gap” The way the mind mutes the empathy signal and stops the ability to put yourself in the position of the “enemy” – Outsider positionidentification with people whom we perceive as outsiders is difficult. This is especially true when those outsiders form an entire community. It is one thing to see the photo of a dead refugee child on the beach. It’s another thing to empathize with all Libyans to try to escape the miserable conditions inside their home country. Joseph Stalin already said: “A single death is a tragedy; a million deaths is a statistic.” – Group identityHow much of our ability to empathize is influenced by identification with the group we want to belong to. This is by all means a very relevant issue. Even looking at the infamous fights between soccer fans from rival teams. In my home country, the Netherlands, people were killed in organized fights between supporters of teams from Rotterdam and Amsterdam about100 km apart. Bruneau cites an experience as a volunteer at a summer camp for Catholic and Protestant boys in Belfast. In an effort to build friendships between the two groups 250 children between the ages of 6 and 14 to be bunk together for three weeks, At first he thought things were going pretty well. Some Protestant boys built what seemed like genuine friendships with some Catholic boys. But on the last day of the program a fight broke out between two participants that quickly devolved into a full-scale, 250-child brawl: Catholics against Protestants An analyses showed that it correlated with was the strength of a person’s group identity “The more an individual’s team affiliation resonated for them, the less empathy they were likely to express for members of the rival team,” he says. “Even in this contrived setting, something as inconsequential as a computer game was enough to generate a measurable gap.” This finding creates an serious problem for policy makers. It seems so self-evident to bring people together to build trust and empathy.. Bruneau says: ” But it turns out a lot of those common-sense approaches can be way off-base.’ It seems that: “Increasing empathy might be great at improving pro-social behavior among individuals, but if a program succeeded in boosting an individual’s empathy for his or her own group, (..) it might actually increase hostility toward the enemy”. – Relevance of a group or individual.Stronger activity of the mirror neurons might correlate with how relevant a certain group is to us and not what we feel for them. In a 2012 study, Bruneau showed that Arabs and Israelis showed equal amounts of neural activity when they read articles about their own group’s suffering as when they read about the other group’s suffering. But when they read about the suffering of South Americans – a group with whom they were not in direct conflict the brain activity was muted. As far as the brain is concerned, he says, the opposite of love might not be hate, but indifference. – Following orders of a superior or expertThe Stanley Milgram experiment on obedience to authority figures showed the willingness of study participants to obey an authority figure instructing them to perform acts conflicting with their personal conscience. (15) – The context of our perceived role– The Stanford prison experiment (SPE) was a study of psychological effects of subjects playing a prisoner or prison guard. The experiment was conducted at Stanford University on August 14-20, 1971, by a team of researchers led by professor Philip Zimbardo. The guards and prisoners adapted to their roles more than Zimbardo expected, stepping beyond predicted boundaries, leading to dangerous and psychologically damaging situations. One-third of the guards were judged to have exhibited “genuine sadistic tendencies”, while many prisoners were emotionally traumatized; five of them had to be removed from the experiment early. The conclusion of the experiment favors “situational” attribution of behavior rather than “dispositional” attribution (a result caused by internal characteristics). In other words, it seemed that the situation, rather than their individual personalities, caused the participants’ behavior. (16) From extremism to terrorismTo explain large scale violence three factors are important:1. a long-going grudge where one of the parties feels humiliated by the other; and 2. “de-individualization” or depersonalization. The other side has no individual face but needs to be seen as collectively guilty for the humiliation. This is happening in some Muslim communities. More and more there is talking, writings and preaching about the Muslim humiliation by the Christians, going back to the time of the Crusades. The ISIS fighters refer to the Western World as the “Crusaders”, and in this way they create an enemy without individual faces. In this way they develop a pretext for terrorism. 3. DehumanizationThis is the denial of “humanness” to other people. (18) In general it can take three “faces”: – animalistic dehumanization: comparing certain human beings to non-human animals. “Police are pigs” It is used to prevent one from showing compassion towards stigmatized groups. -mechanistic dehumanization, in which human attributes are removed, and the person is perceived to be unfeeling, cold, passive, rigid, and lacking individuality. -creating “the enemy” a person can be dehumanized is by perceiving the other person as being the enemy. “The enemy is constructed to exemplify manipulation and is described as being opportunistic, evil, immoral, and motivated by greed. The enemy is shown to take advantage of the weak, which in turn justifies any action taken against the enemy” “Dehumanization may be carried out by a social institution such as a state, school, family or religious group. State-organized dehumanization has historically been directed against perceived political, racial, ethnic, national, or religious minority groups Dehumanization can lead to exclusion, violence, and support for violence against others. Likewise, making statements such as “terrorists are just scum”, is also an act of dehumanization.” The other side: How to explain terrorism from the side of members of the endogenous population towards immigrants Globalization versus the need for emotional securityTerrorism can also happen as an outcome of emotional unease because of the visible consequences of immigration. Culture can be compared with an onion with different layers. Values are of course invisible. Freedom of religion and freedom of speech are part of the values of Western countries with the restricted rule of law, giving minority groups the same rights. The expression of these rights, for instance head-scarf’s and places worship like Mosques is however highly visible. This can be experienced by people from receiving countries as de-rooting and loss of identity. If people have been used throughout their lives to the symbols, heroes and rituals of their own culture, it creates also emotional safety. Emotional safety is one of the basic layers of the Maslow pyramid. Only if this need is fulfilled individuals can be open for other experiences. Rapid changes are frequently making people feel unsafe. Unsafe feelings might lead to “cramped” reactions. Leading to de-humanization of newcomers. Right wing groups are using this by calling male newcomers dangerous “testosterone bombs” and “rapists”. Consequence can be that all the above mentioned reasons for terrorism might occur. Violent reactions acts like the Breivik killings in Norway and the attacks on refugee camps in Sweden and German are examples. But there is another element that is creating confusion and emotional stress. It is about misunderstandings about the deepest layer of culture “values” Some highly profiled politicians, writers and philosophers are convinced that globalization is changing national values and that it is old-fashioned to believe that country values are stable and create deeply rooted diverse mindsets. This idea is refuted by the before -mentioned recent repeat of Hofstede’s research published in June 2015 by Beugelsdijk et al. They showed that, in spite of global developments, the Hofstede findings are still consistent over time and valid. This means that “national values” should be taken seriously into account, when talking about the consequences of immigration. The Hofstede findings are defined by comparing the values of nation-states. For some “globalists” this is an old-fashioned idea and even unacceptable.. Even stronger, some of them are saying that referring to culture is tantamount to apartheid on a global scale. And apartheid is racism and fascism in one encompassing word. Hans Magnus Enzensberger used the train compartment as a metaphor for the nation-state. Some people are already sitting in the compartment. Then the door opens and others are entering {stepping in}. The ones who were already there feel annoyed by the newcomers. They are disturbing the peace and are taking available room. You know, of course, that your feelings are “not right.” They have just as much right for a chair as you have.Martin Sommer, a Dutch journalist, says: “the nation-state as something you purchase a ticket for and nothing else?No history, no shared destiny, no obligations? I don’t think so. ” (18) He adds:“Using the train compartment metaphor it is clear that some globalists are seeing this as the European identity. That is to say: no identity. The European identity is about human rights, across borders, post colonial, post Auschwitz. That’s why Europe cannot have real borders; because borders mean exclusion”. As a result, a polarization is growing between the emotions of people on the “grass roots” level in the different nation-states in Europe, and the “rational” opinions of the globalists who believe that it is “stupid” to be afraid. It is clear that one can see uneasiness in the discussion about refugees and immigrants. It is politically incorrect to say that national values are different and can lead to frictions. This amounts to an ideological confrontation of values. Mass immigration and consequencesThe recent influx of immigrants into European countries demands another discussion about the consequences for nation-states with an established welfare system based on solidarity among the members of those nation-states. In general, the majority of the different receiving countries are moderately positive about the need to do something for people who lost everything and fled from the war in their own countries. Still, every day on news media it can be seen that some individuals and groups are violently against getting these refugees to stay in camps in their neighborhood. Already now it can be seen that some people are scaremongering, de- individualizing and dehumanizing immigrant groups. Words like “testosterone bombs” and “rapists” are used for young men, to make people afraid. The media have a special role to play here, to explain reality and give facts.This should not take the shape of a naïve and overly positive approach. It should be clear that there are some real worries for the citizens of the receiving countries. For instance: the problems of housing and priorities for waiting lists. Also legitimate questions are raised about the financial consequences of all this. To avoid “Babylonic” discussions leading to unwanted polarization, it is necessary to separate two kinds of arguments: – The ethical arguments. The discussion about the need to help refugees escaping from dangerous areas and needing shelter to protect their families. In this argumentation it is about “Putting our own people first, versus treating refugees like you would want to be treated yourself.” What do we mean by “fair and just”? – A consequential analysesWhat are the consequences of accepting thousands of refugees? Different perspectives should be discussed in an open way: what are the consequences for them? And for us? What are the consequences for the taxpayers? For the labor force? For the social security system? For education? For security? The two discussions will amount to an ideological and political confrontation. On one hand we have the focus on equality, giving everybody the same rights. On the other hand is the fact that the social security systems are based on solidarity. This solidarity is developed and sustained by people living and working within the borders of the nation state. That took a long time to develop. It should be evident that this solidarity implies frontiers. The Dutch former finance minister Wouter Bos says:“This is not only theory. Big migration can cause a problem for the solidarity in the welfare state.Most of us will not support diminishing the level of solidarity in our type of society. But this is, according to economists, the consequence we will face, if we don’t take measures against the flow of refugees.”(18) Ideas to take into consideration: 1. An active policy is required to aim for the social inclusion of immigrantsElements of such a policy must be:-Recognize the cultural uniqueness of the different cultural groups involved;– Value the importance of the different layers of culture for the identity of thecultural groups and pay explicit attention to it: beliefs, symbols, heroes,rituals, languages, accents, and social conduct;-Value cooperation and bridge-building with community leaders and otherorganizations working within the community;-Value word-of-mouth and interpersonal communication to spread your message. 2. Be aware of the possibilities and limits of integration. People cannot take off their opinions and values like you take off your clothes. Policy implementers should be pro-active in observing and coaching if beliefs and convictions collide, such as the separation of state and religion; or equal treatment of men and women; and the tolerance for different sexual preferences. 3. We have to be acutely aware of the difference between values and norms. Whereas values may be different, but the norms must be common to all; and they are anchored in the constitution and in the law. This makes clear what behavior is accepted and what behavior is forbidden and not sanctioned. 4. We have to develop, quite quickly, some clear examples and case studies concerning seemingly contradictory elements of our societies, such as freedom of speech versus insult and hate speech. We must clarify aspects such as on one hand tolerance and on the other hand social conduct like shaking hands between men and women, and rituals like standing up in a courtroom when the judge is entering the room; between on one hand accepting religious prescriptions like having a long beard for men, and on the other hand observing explicit safety measures in a prison; between on one hand wearing cloth that covers one’s face and on the other hand the need to be able to identify a person. 5. We have to pay much more attention to the needs of non-Western children at the moment they enter the school system. Extra attention, manpower and money are required to prevent (self) exclusion. 6. We have to pay close attention to the collectivist side of the non-Western immigrants and to the potential conflict between ethnical and religious factions like Shiites and Sunnites. These conflicts are sometimes imported. 7. We have to be aware that many immigrant groups are not feeling solidarity to each other. 8. Research by Putnam found that in multi-ethnic city quarters trust in each other is frequently very low. Recent research in a culture like the Dutch is questioning that. So may be a cultural factor has an impact here. 9. Speaking the language is a necessity for communication. Efforts should be increased to enable immigrants to take language lessons. Sanctions should be considered if people drop out. 10. Work is a powerful tool for inclusion. Policies should forcefully fight discrimination in the labor market. 11. Active policies should be in place to prevent de-individualization and de-humanization. Everywhere, but most especially in schools, it should not be allowed that whole ethnic or religious groups are referred to in negative language. Teachers should be trained to be able to stop this and ask the students to look at the dangerous potential consequences. 12. Immigrants frequently ask: “you tell me that we have to adapt to the new culture, but explain to me then what that actually means.” Most often the answer is very superficial, because most people have difficulties to describe the key elements of their own culture. What they see around them is perceived as “normal”. As the saying goes “Fish are the last ones to define water.” It is in this sense that Queen Maxima was describing the Dutch culture as: “you get one cookie with your cup of tea.” What is needed is a better understanding of the basic dimensions of culture and what that means for all the different mindsets involved. This will benefit both the immigrants and ourselves, as we become more aware of our respective identities and seek a form of living together that is mutually respectful and beneficial. Notes1- Geert Hofstede: Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions and Organizations Across Nations, 2nd Edition. 596 pages. Thousand Oaks CA: Sage Publications, 2001, hardcover, ISBN 0-8039-7323-3; 2003, paperback, ISBN 0-8039-7324-1.2. Nation-state: Nation: people sharing a certain territory and having a shared national consciousness who in principle accept the authority, legitimacy and power of their political administration (= state)3- Beugelsdijk, S., Maseland, R. and van Hoorn, A. (2015), Are Scores on Hofstede’s Dimensions of National Culture Stable over Time? A Cohort Analysis. Global Strategy Journal, 5: 223-240. doi: 10.1002/gsj.10984.-The Clash of Civilizations? Essay Summer 1993 Issue United StatesPolitics & Society By Samuel P. Huntington5. Article 24 of the declaration states: “All the rights and freedoms stipulated in this Declaration are subject to the Islamic Sharia.” Article 19 also says: “There shall be no crime or punishment except as provided for in the Sharia.”6- The Educational Performance of Children of Immigrants in Sixteen OECD Countries. J. Donkers and M de Heus- Dossier Migrantengezin – Invloed van migratie, Nederlands Jeugdinstituut.html7–OECD (2014),Education at a Glance 2014: OECD Indicators,OECD Publishing.http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/eag-2014-enISBN 978-92-64-21132-2 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-21505-4 (PDF8- see Wikipedia and Social Inclusion: Profiles”. SocialInclusion.gov.au. Commonwealth of Australia. Retrieved 11 March 20119- Immigrant Children’s Educational Achievement in Western Countries: Origin, Destination, and Community Effects on Mathematical Performance Mark Levels, Jaap Dronkers, Gerbert Kraaykamp . Radboud University, Nijmegen, European University Institute, San Domenico di Fiesole. American Sociological Review, 2008, vol.73 (October: 835-853)10-Psychosocial and Educational Adjustment of Ethnic Minority Elementary School Children in the Netherlands.Author(s): Ftitache, B.Link location: http://hdl.handle.net/1871/52607 Year: 2015-04-2011- The Cement of Society: A Study of Social Order by Jon Elster311 ges, $49.50 (hardcover), $16.95 (paperback) published by Cambridge University Press– Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences by Jon Elster 184 pages, $10.95 (paperback) published by Cambridge University Press– Solomonic Judgments: Studies in the Limitations of Rationality by Jon Elster 232 pages, $37.50 hardcover), $13.95 (paperback) published by Cambridge University Press12-De Volkskrant 13-10-201513- Frans de Waal, Ted talk14- as cited in: The Brain’s Empathy Gap. Can mapping neural pathways help us make friends with our enemies? By JENEEN INTERLANDI MARCH 19, 2015 New York Times15-Milgram first described this in 1963 in an article published in the Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology . Later he analyzed it in depth in his 1974 book, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View16- Haney, C., Banks, W. C., & Zimbardo, P. G. (1973). “Study of prisoners and guards in a simulated prison”, Naval Research Reviews, 9, 1-17. Washington, DC: Office of Naval Research.17-Psychwiki.com/Dehumanization18-Martin Sommer. Volkskrant 15-08-201519-Dom interview over belangrijk themaWouter Bos in De Volkskrant 15/10/15 The Future Now Show with Steve Hill, Elena Miloval and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show April 2016 Aging featuringSteve Hill, Major Mouse Testing Project, UKElena Milova, Major Mouse Testing Project, RussiaKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text Vanquishing ageing is obviously an eternal hot topic but only in recent years has it been demonstrated that interventions can have a significant impact. But what is the chemical basis for all this and what chemicals might offer the most precise intervention? Our understanding is at an early stage. Some ideas are coalescing, such as clearing out defunct cells that refuse to die (senolytics), but in general we need much more data. The Major Mouse Testing Program has been set up to accelerate things by, essentially, using a lot of mice. The program is also unusual in that it uses crowd funding, not a traditional way of supporting scientific research but intriguing. And surely this is a topic that will appeal to the crowds. The Middle East and North Africa: A 30-minute whirlwind tour ByJames M. Dorsey, Senior Fellow at S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University Lecture at the Lee Kwan Yew School of Public Policy, 3 March 2016 No free lunches What the dramatic and bloody developments in the Middle East and North Africa demonstrate is that there are no free lunches. These developments are the product of short sighted policies of on the one hand major players in the international community – the United States, the former Soviet Union and currently Russia as well as Europe and China – and on the other hand of primarily dictatorial regimes or a minority of democratically elected governments like Israel who see merit in exploiting opportunity that allows them to avoid healing festering wounds. The popular revolts that swept the Middle East and North Africa in 2011 toppling leaders in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, sparked the civil wars in Syria, Libya and Yemen, Saudi military interventions in Bahrain and Yemen, and the rise of jihadism with today the Islamic States at its epicentre, were a response to decades of autocratic, arbitrary rule that failed to produce in national, economic and social terms. That autocratic rule benefitted from the support of the international community. The West saw autocracy as a guarantee for stability while countries like the Soviet Union at the time, Russia today and China never really adhered to values of democratic change. Many have commented that the revolts demonstrated that the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict despite Arab and Muslim claims to the contrary was not at the core of problems in the Middle East and North Africa. They point to the fact that the conflict did not figure prominently in the events of 2011 and has not been key to developments since. That is true. The fallacy is that the conflict never was at the core of regional issues. Israel-Palestine figures less prominently in the developments because it no longer can serve autocrats as a lightning rod that distracts from the real domestic and regional issues. It did however serve to aggravate problems. The lightning rod backfired. Arab military and political incompetence coupled with divisions among Palestinians and Israeli intransigence ultimately served to undermine the legitimacy of autocrats who failed to perform on what a vast majority in the Middle East and North Africa saw as an issue of national importance and pride and fundamental justice. All of this summarily explains why the Middle East and North Africa is in transition. It positions the events of recent years as a rejection of corrupt and failed autocratic rule. What it doesn’t explain is why the transition has taken such a violent turn and produced brutal and ruthless forces that range from the Islamic State to the regimes of Bashar al Assad in Syria and the Al Sauds in Saudi Arabia that are willing to pursue their goals and remain in power at whatever human, social, economic and political cost. Middle Eastern and North African exceptionalism The uprisings of 2011 caught government officials, journalists and analysts across the globe by surprise. They were until then enamoured by what became known as Arab exceptionalism, the apparent ability of Arab autocrats to buck the global trend towards democracy. Arab leaders appeared to be immune to popular aspirations and able to maintain their grip on power with no credible forces able to challenge them. That myth was shattered in 2011. That is not to say that Arab exceptionalism is a fallacy. It isn’t. However, what it represents is something very different from what officials and pundits thought it meant. The nature of Arab exceptionalism becomes evident in the exploration of the answer to the question why political transition was relatively successful in Southeast Asia with the popular revolts in the Philippines and Indonesia and military-led political change in Myanmar and why it is so messy and bloody in the Middle East and North Africa. The answer in my mind lies in four factors – the military, civil society, management of religious and ethnic conflict, and the role of regional powers. In a whirlwind, what this means is that Southeast Asia had militaries, at least parts of which saw change as serving their interest. No Arab military with the exception of Tunisia took that view. Despite repression, Southeast Asia was able to develop some degree of robust civil society, the Middle East and North Africa by and large hasn’t. Southeast Asia has seen its share of ethnic and religious conflict but has often been able to negotiate an end to those disputes. The Lebanese civil war being the exception, the Middle East and North Africa has seen such conflicts as a zero sum game. And finally Southeast Asia is lucky not to have a Saudi Arabia, a counterrevolutionary forced with the temporary wherewithal to stymie change at whatever cost. A decade of defiance and dissent All of this means that there is increasingly little space to push for change. Regimes respond with violence to demands of change. Don’t’ forget that revolts like those in Libya, Bahrain and Syria started as peaceful mass anti-government protests that were confronted brutally. Libya sparked foreign intervention to prevent a bloodbath, Saudi Arabia and the Bahraini regime turned Bahrain into sectarian strife and the regime of Bashar al Assad is willing to fight a horrendous civil war to retain power. All of this takes place in a decade of defiance and dissent. Across the globe, people have lost confidence in the system and their leaders. Donald Trump is an expression of that. The last time this happened was in the 1960s. The difference between then and now is that then there were all kinds of worldviews on offer: anti-authoritarianism. Anarchism, socialism, communism and in the Middle East and North Africa, Arab nationalism and Arab socialism. Today, the only thing on offer are radical interpretations of Islam. Human rights activist and former Tunisian president Moncef Marzouki asked in a recent Wall Street Journal interview why Tunisia had educated people with jobs joining IS. His answer was: “It’s not the matter of tackling socioeconomic roots. You have to go deeper and understand that these guys have a dream—and we don’t. We had a dream—our dream was called the Arab Spring. And our dream is now turning into a nightmare. But the young people need a dream, and the only dream available to them now is the caliphate.” What this means is that identifying the root causes of political violence demands self-inspection on the part of governments and societies across the globe. It is those governments and societies that are both part of the problem and part of the solution. It is those governments and societies that are at the root of loss of confidence. Further troubling the waters is the rise of a public and private anti-terrorism industry that sees human rights as second to ensuring security and safety; has a vested interest in couching the problem in terms of law enforcement and counter-terrorism rather than notions of alienation, marginalization, socio-economic disenfranchisement, youth aspirations and rights; is abetted by autocratic Middle Eastern and North African regimes that define any form of dissent as terrorism; and is supported by a public opinion that buys into support of autocrats and some degree of curtailing of rights as a trade-off for security. Tackling root causes Analysts and policymakers have identified a range of causes for the breakdown of the traditional order in the Middle East and North Africa, ranging from a desire for greater freedom and social justice to the fragility of post-colonial regional states as a result of autocratic failure to engage in nation rather than regime building that gave rise to ethnic, tribal and sectarian strife, to inherent flaws in colonial border arrangements at the time of the demise of the Ottoman Empire such as the Sykes-Picot Agreement and the Treaty of Sevres. All of those notions contain kernels of truth but they have contributed to it becoming common place to pay lip service to the need to tackle root causes of the crisis in the Middle East and North Africa as well as of political violence, and that can mean almost anything. Translating the need to tackle root causes into policy is proving difficult, primarily because it is based on a truth that has far-reaching consequences for every member of the international community no matter how close or far they are from IS’s current borders. It involves governments putting their money where their mouth is and changing long-standing, ingrained policies at home that marginalize, exclude, stereotype and stigmatize significant segments of society; emphasize security at the expense of freedoms that encourage healthy debate; and in more autocratic states that are abetted by the West, Russia and China reduce citizens to obedient subjects through harsh repression and adaptations of religious belief to suit the interests of rulers. The result is a vicious circle: government policies often clash with the state or regime’s professed values. As a result, dividing lines sharpen as already marginalized, disenfranchised or discriminated segments of society see the contradiction between policies and values as hypocritical and re-confirmation of the basis of their discontent. Western nations, for example, in the fall of 2015, deferred to Saudi Arabia’s objections to an investigation by the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) into human rights violations by all sides during the Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen in which thousands of civilians were killed. Media reports documented, a day prior to the Western cave-in, a British pledge to support Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s foremost violators of basic human rights and purveyors of sectarianism, in the Council. The kingdom, at the same time, objected to references to gay rights in the United Nations’ newly formulated Sustainable Development Goals. Inclusiveness is the answer Creating a policy framework that is conducive to an environment in the Middle East and North Africa that would favour pluralism and respect of human rights and counter the appeal of jihadism and emerging sectarian-based nationalism is not simply a question of encouraging and supporting voices in the region, first and foremost those of youth, or of revisiting assumptions of Western foreign policies and definitions of national security. It involves fostering inclusive national identities that are capable of accommodating ethnic, sectarian and tribal sub-identities as legitimate and fully accepted sub-identities in Middle Eastern and North Africa, as well as in Western countries, and changing domestic policies towards minorities, refugees and migrants. In the case of the international community’s effort to defeat IS, inclusiveness means, for example, that victory has to be secured as much in Raqqa and Mosul, IS’s Syrian and Iraqi capitals, as in the dismal banlieues, run-down, primarily minority-populated, suburbs of French cities that furnish the group with its largest contingent of European foreign fighters; in the popular neighbourhoods in Tunisia that account for the single largest group of foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq; in Riyadh, seat of a government whose citizens account for the second largest number of foreign fighters and whose well-funded, decades-long effort to propagate a puritan, intolerant, interpretation of Islam has been a far more important feeding ground for jihadist thinking than the writings of militant Islamist thinkers like Sayyid Qutb; and in Western capitals with Washington in the lead who view retrograde, repressive regimes like those of Saudi Arabia and Egypt as part of the solution rather than part of the problem. Focussing on root causes that are at the core of both the crisis and deteriorating, if not total disrespect of, human rights, means broadening scholarly and policy debate to concentrate not only on what amounts to applying Band-Aids that fail to halt the festering of open wounds but also to question assumptions made by the various schools of thought on how to solve the problem. The facts on the ground have already convincingly contradicted the notion that Western support of autocracy and military interventions primarily through air campaigns despite paying lip service to ideals of democracy and human rights could counter common enemies like IS. It has so far produced only limited results. Respect for human rights has, in many Middle Eastern and North African nations, significantly deteriorated since the 2011 popular revolts while IS is largely standing its ground more than a year into a US-led air campaign, a Russian bombing operation that began in the fall of 2015, and ground campaigns by the Iraqi government and the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The group continues to advocate a regime that celebrates its rejection of pluralism and human rights and metes out relatively transparent yet brutal justice, and it poses a fundamental threat to the existence of post-colonial nation states as the world knew them, first and foremost Syria and Iraq, but ultimately also others like Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt and Libya. Defeat is not the solution Yet, even a convincing defeat of IS would not solve the problem or promote notions of pluralism and respect of human rights. Al Qaeda was degraded, to use the language of the Obama administration. In the process, it weakened a jihadist force that, despite having no appreciation for concepts of pluralism and human rights, increasingly advocated a gradual approach to the establishment of its harsh interpretation of Islamic law in a bid to ensure public support. Instead of reducing the threat of political violence, the largely military effort to defeat Al Qaeda produced ever more virulent forms of jihadism as embodied by IS. It may be hard to imagine anything more brutal than IS, but it is a fair assumption that defeating IS without tackling root causes would only lead to something that is even more violent and more vicious. Nonetheless, defining repressive, autocratic rule and IS as the greatest threat to regional stability and security and the furthering of more liberal notions is problematic. In the case of IS, that definition elevates jihadism – the violent establishment of Pan-Islamic rule based on narrow interpretations of Islamic law and scripture — to the status of a root cause rather than a symptom and expression of a greater and more complex problem. It is an approach that focuses on the immediate nature of the threat and ways to neutralize it rather than on what sparked it. It also neglects the fact that the ideological debate in the Muslim world is to a large extent dominated by schools of thought that do not advocate more open, liberal and pluralistic interpretations of Islam. That is where one real challenge lies. It is a challenge first and foremost to Muslims, but also to an international community that would give more liberal Muslim voices significant credibility if it put its money where its mouth is. Support for self-serving regimes and their religious supporters, as in the case of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, reduces the international community’s choices to one between bad and worse, rather than to a palate of policy options that take a stab at rooting out the problem and its underlying causes. A wake-up call To be sure, change and progress towards the embrace of pluralism and universal human rights will have to originate from within Middle Eastern and North African nations. Saudi and UAE efforts to target political Islam as such that have also resonated in the West, were articulated by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Blair argued against “a deep desire to separate the political ideology represented by groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood from the actions of extremists including acts of terrorism.” He acknowledged that it was “laudable” to distinguish “between those who violate the law and those we simply disagree with” but warned that “if we’re not careful, they also blind us to the fact that the ideology itself is nonetheless dangerous and corrosive; and cannot and should not be treated as a conventional political debate between two opposing views of how society […]
Content Reinventing Leadership Development by George Por The Future Now Show with John Nosta and Katie Aquino Wisdom of the Crowd or Wisdom of a Few? by Ricardo Baeza-Yates. Yahoo! Labs. Barcelona, Spainand Diego Saez-Trumper. Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Barcelona, Spain A Harvard Mad Scientist Invented Ice Cream That Has Skin News about the Future: Artificial muscle / Freight Farms Mathematics and sex Recommended Book: Daemon by Daniel Suarez Futurist Portrait: Thornton May Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the Club of Amsterdam Journal. Watch the new edition of The Future Now Show with John Nosta, Digital Health Philosopher and Katie Aquino about Digital Health! Felix F Bopp, Founder & Chairman Reinventing Leadership Development George Pór is an evolutionary thinker, Teal mentor, and advisor to culture change and system transition in organisations. Gallup research shows that, worldwide, only 13% of employees are engaged in their jobs. The statistic is shocking and means more than three-quarters of employees are wasting their time, energy, and their organisation’s resources. How can we mobilize the creativity and collective intelligence in our organisations to turn this around? For a challenge this massive, we need more than yesterday’s mindsets and leadership development approaches. The crisis of employee engagement, like any of our global crises, cannot be solved by today’s dominant modes of thinking. “The next cycle is the one of an integral, holistic consciousness that enables the integration of the inner and outer technologies and sciences, deep intuition and systems thinking, spirituality and precision of inquiry.”[1] We need to develop competences in each. The sooner the better. Think of it as scaling a mountain. As we ascend, we leave useless, old stuff beside the path, stuff that burdens and blinkers us. The climb is worth it, though. When we get to the top, we gain an eagle-eye perspective. We now enjoy a broader view. We see realities that were previously hidden from us. And we see how everything is interconnected. As our insight deepens, so does our compassion and inner coherence. As we scale the mountain, we renew ourselves personally and professionally, and step more fully into our potential. Looking back, we wonder how we ever believed in the myth of controlling people, predicting the future, or escaping the consequences of an unhealthy life. And we know that we couldn’t have made this journey alone. Not this quickly and not this smoothly. Our sherpa guides or mentors have been here before. They know how to guide us through the shortcuts and rocky terrain. That’s because they have honed the capacity to sense, think, and relate from a more expansive sense of self. They also help us unlearn unproductive habits and drop them beside the path. As a mentor who guides leaders in next-stage organisations, I can share with you a few things I have learned so far. Some of it comes from the three breakthroughs that Frederic Laloux discovered while researching and writing his book. Their implications are far-reaching, practical, and powerful. Not only can we reinvent our organisations, but also ourselves, and the way we develop as leaders. Let’s look into how. Evolutionary Purpose You may be tempted to start by wondering where your organisation could evolve to next or how it could reach its creative potential. However, that is step two. Step one is discovering that breakthrough in your own self. This is not about deciding what you’ll be when you grow up. And it’s not about pushing forward with your head or will. To get clarity about your evolutionary purpose, it is best to bypass the analytical mind for a little while. Instead, ask the question “who is the world inviting you to be, in service of creating a future that we all want?” and listen to the answer that comes from your heart. Or ask simply where are your deepest talents and highest aspirations meeting a need in your world, one that you feel passionately called to address. Take time to re-read either of those questions that speak to you. Sit with it for a moment. Even better, move away from the computer, take your question to a quiet corner or take it for a walk. Turn your attention to your breath. Know that there is a creative impulse within you, and it wants to manifest through you. But it can only reveal its secret when you become silent or still enough to hear its whisper. A more psychological way to access your inner wisdom is to access your intuition and ask: what kind of work gives me the greatest joy? What is the need/tension in my world that is crying loudest for my help? Where the answers to those questions dovetail, that’s where you will find your evolutionary purpose. At least, for now. I ask myself these questions at least once a year, on my birthday, keeping them fresh, vibrant and dynamic. I use them as a North Star on my journey. Self-Management Leading by example is par for the course in self-managed organisations. As Laloux says, “an organisation cannot evolve beyond its leadership’s stage of development.” This makes your personal development more than personal. You need to embody the qualities you want to inspire in others. And you need to operate from a deeper knowledge of both yourself and the work environment than what is required in a traditional workplace. This involves gaining a high level of knowledge about your organisation’s operating conditions and the various roles and accountabilities that dovetail with yours. Only then can you use your creative potential to the fullest and contribute to the whole. It gets personal. As a leader, your self-management includes the capacity to recognize your needs, values, and moods, and the skills to manage the latter. That calls for moment-to-moment awareness of what is arising from within, as well as the tensions and opportunities for individual action arising from the workplace. Only then can you, as an individual along with groups of individuals, develop skills and practices that allow everyone to work together harmoniously under any conditions, even in the most challenging situations. Developing quiet-mind muscles, in addition to the active-mind muscles you already have, is crucial. This involves stilling yourself enough to gather information through mindful attention, sensing, and feeling. This is about being present, receptive, and simply being. You can try this right now. As you read the rest of this blog, simultaneously keep some of your attention on your breath. It is as if you are attending the words in one hand, and your breath in the other, and you are aware of both. This is not an easy practice because the mind tends to jump to either the sentence or the breath instead of remaining alert to both. With practice, you can become better at it. Try this the next time you talk with someone. Pay attention to your breath or heartbeat while fully absorbing what you hear from the other person. Notice how this changes the quality of your presence. Quiet-mind skills include self-reflection, sense-making, and perspective-taking. They help you nurture the unfolding leadership qualities in yourself and in each member of the organisation. I sense another blog about them in the making… Wholeness Imagine dropping your professional mask and bringing the whole of who you are to work. This is what happens in next-stage organisations. You are free to show up in an authentic way without hiding your vulnerability. You are in touch with your emotions and able to express even the so-called “negative” ones, without harming others. Like you, they value genuine relationships and have no need to to play “games” or to “play nice.” Another aspect of wholeness is about developing a portfolio of the roles you energize, both personally and professionally. Which of your talents come out to play in each role? How do your roles strengthen each other? Which of your roles can generate the larges ripple effects on others’ roles, and then impact the whole. In this way you learn to optimize your contribution and impact on the whole organisation. This also applies to the totality of your lifework roles, which I illustrated here. So, reinventing leadership development has to also address the ways in which you, as a leader, can optimise the investment of your attention/energy in multiple contexts. These are some of the wholeness competencies you may want to develop: conflict resolution; intuition; imagination; generative listening; celebrating accomplishments; and managing the distribution of your energy across a portfolio of your roles. Most important is caring for the wellbeing of all aspects of your diversity, and aligning these parts functionally into a working whole. If you want to go deeper in the individual dimension of wholeness, read the blog of my colleague Celine McKeown “What does Wholeness mean in the context of Teal Organising?”. Wholeness, at the focus of reinventing leadership development, provides an invitation to pay conscious attention to making every decision from the biggest context that can put your arms around. I.e., one that is personally meaningful to you. For some leaders, it will be the well-being of the organisation’s members and other stakeholders. For others it may be the evolutionary purpose of the enterprise. Yet for others it will be evolution itself. It’s all good, really. But attention training will be needed till attending to the largest whole becomes your second nature. If you are an intentional learner, and wish to accelerate your evolutionary journey, here are some tips: 1. Read the Reinventing Organizations book, watch the video, and browse the wiki.2. Join a meet-up group or a community of practice or an online network, focused on next-stage, or self-managing, or Teal organisations, under any other name, and explore with them how to discover next “next stage” in one’s own life.3. Subscribe to and get involved with Enlivening Edge, the online magazine of next-stage organisations. This approach to reinventing leadership development is not for everyone, but it can be introduced on top of more traditional leadership development effort, especially for those who want to move beyond what it offers. Your highest-leverage action to build capacity for organisational reinvention is to become a “next-stage” mentor. Evolutionary mentoring, as introduced here, is foundational to reinventing leadership development, and it is always cross-mentoring that transforms both the mentor and the mentee. That’s why it’s one of my greatest joys. Along with my colleague Jackie Thoms, I will be offering a workshop during the Integral European Conference May 4-8, on how to mentor leaders of “next-stage,” or what Laloux calls, “Teal” organisations. This is work in progress, evolving through the generative conversations with our clients and colleagues. If you want to join the conversation, please comment or ask your questions below. We, at Future Considerations, are working with our clients to help accelerate their journey to the next level of potential. Our Teal mentoring service is an emergent process that starts with a free, in-depth, generative interview. The communication channels we use include: face-to-face meetings, video calls, email, and a dedicated private collaboration spaces. For more details, please get in contact George Pór is an evolutionary thinker, Teal mentor, and advisor to culture change and system transition in organisations. He is a Fellow of Future Considerations and founder of “Enlivening Edge: News from Next-Stage Organizations” and the Teal Practice Group (London). George is the publisher of the Blog of Collective Intelligence, and an independent scholar. His former academic posts included INSEAD, London School of Economics and UC Berkeley. The Future Now Show with Chris Dancy and Katie Aquino Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. The Future Now Show May 2016 Digital Health featuringJohn Nosta, Digital Health Philosopher, USAKatie Aquino, aka “Miss Metaverse”, Futurista™, USAPaul Holister, Editor, Summary Text In an age where biometric devices have become a popular consumer item, where you can go online and get your genome analysed (23andMe), where gene therapy is promising to treat everything from genetic disorders to cancer and where we are mastering the ability to precisely target specific genes for control or editing (CRISPR being the latest buzz technology), how are these myriad developments going to change the way our health is managed? Or the extent to which we can manage it? Add AI into the mix and the possibilities can be dizzying, if not sometimes a little scary. Wisdom of the Crowd or Wisdom of a Few? Ricardo Baeza-Yates. Yahoo! Labs. Barcelona, SpainandDiego Saez-Trumper. Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Barcelona, Spain An Analysis of Users’ Content Generation ABSTRACTIn this paper we analyze how user generated content (UGC) is created, challenging the well known wisdom of crowds concept. Although it is known that user activity in most settings follow a power law, that is, few people do a lot, while most do nothing, there are few studies that characterize well this activity. In our analysis of datasets from two different social networks, Facebook and Twitter, we find that a small percentage of active users and much less of all users represent 50% of the UGC. We also analyze the dynamic behavior of the generation of this content to find that the set of most active users is quite stable in time. Moreover, we study the social graph, finding that those active users are highly connected among them. This implies that most of the wisdom comes from a few users, challenging the independence assumption needed to have a wisdom of crowds. We also address the content that is never seen by any people, which we call digital desert, that challenges the assumption that the content of every person should be taken in account in a collective decision. We also compare our results with Wikipedia data and we address the quality of UGC content using an Amazon dataset. At the end our results are not surprising, as the Web is a reflection of our own society, where economical or political power also is in the hands of minorities. Categories and Subject DescriptorsH.2.8 [Database Management]: Database applicationsData mining;; J.4 [Computer Applications]: Social and Behavioral Sciences General TermsHuman factors, measurement. KeywordsSocial networks; user generated content; wisdom of crowds. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be h onored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from Permissions@acm.org.HT’15, September 1–4, 2015, Guzelyurt, TRNC, Cyprus.Copyright is held by the owner/author(s). Publication rights licensed to ACM. ACM 978-1-4503-3395-5/15/09 …$15.00.http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2700171.2791056. 1. INTRODUCTIONThe wisdom of crowds is a well known concept of how “large groups of people are smarter than an elite few, no matter how brilliant, they are better at solving problems, fostering innovation, coming to wise decisions, and even predicting the future” [20]. On the other hand, although all people that use Internet can contribute to web content (or any type of activity), most people do not. In fact, in any social network, the set of people that just looks at the activity of others (passive users or digital voyeurs) is much larger than the people that is active. Similarly, among the active users most of them do little, while a few do a lot (digital exhibitionists). We are interested in the characterization and interplay of these groups of people regarding the generation of content. Let us take a specific case, say the world of blogs in the Web. Most people do not have a blog and few people have good blogs. Conversely, most blogs are not read and few blogs are well read. Indeed, people contribute to content in a social network or in the Web because they have the (possibly wrong) perception that someone will look at and read their contribution. This perception that they are speaking to the whole world, when the truth is that most of the time they are speaking alone, creates a very long tail of content that nobody sees, a huge digital desert where people write to an empty audience, metaphorically speaking. Although we believe that there is a high correlation between the quality of content and the activity of users interacting with that content, in this paper we explore this process: how people contributes to content and what is the impact of the content generation process in the so called wisdom of crowds. As we cannot study this in the context of the whole Web, as most usage data is private, we use two different datasets: a small sample of New Orleans Facebook users and a large one coming from a micro-blogging platform, Twitter. Both are good case studies for the problem being tackled. In fact, today Facebook and Twitter are the two largest social networks in term of users. In one of these cases we estimate a weak lower bound of how much of the UGC produced is never seen. We also compare the content generation process in these social networks to the content generation of Wikipedia as well as the estimations of unique users per month that visit that website. Moreover, using another UGC dataset from Amazon’s movies reviews, where the quality of content it is explicitly rated, we study the relation between quantity and quality of content produced by people, finding also that the majority of high-quality content is generated by a small set of users Our main results are: • The percentage of users that generate more than 50% of the content is small, less than 7% in our two examples;• These top users are quite stable in time, more than 70% of the initial people in our two examples stay on that group during all the time observed;• The quality of content it is not strongly correlated with amount of users’ activity, but;• Given that quality of content it is (almost) equality distributed among users, more active users produces in absolute numbers – more high quality content than less active users.• The number of users that do not contribute to the generation of content is the majority of them, some because of inaction while thers because their content is not taken in account;• There is a significant volume of content that nobody sees, and hence is not taken in consideration; and• The bias seems to be even worse in non social contexts such as content creation in Wikipedia, where there are also is higher amount of content that is never visited. The reminder of this paper is organized as follows. Sections 2 and 3 give the background. Sections 4 to 6 present the experimental results and discuss them 2. RELATED WORKThe concept of the wisdom of crowds was introduced by Francis Galton in 1907 [6], and used by James Surowiecki in his seminal book “The Wisdom of Crowds” [20], where he posits – among other things – that the aggregated knowledge of a group would be bigger than the knowledge of any of its single components. Although wisdom is difficult to measure, on the Web this concept has been translated – and widely applied – as using the data provided directly (e.g., content) or indirectly (e.g., clicks) by users to discover knowledge in a crowd sourcing approach [14, 9, 5, 8]. A good example of how this wisdom can be used, is exploiting the clicks that users do after issuing a query in a web search engine. This allows to extract semantic relations between queries in an automatic manner [1, 2, 3]. Therefore, in this example and others, more user generated content implies more knowledge that can be potentially discovered. In Online Social Networks, wisdom can be related to the amount of content produced by users. Previous studies suggests that the amount of user’s activity (e.g., number of tweets) it is related with her/his number of followers [19], and also with the monetary value that they produce [18]. Similarly, in social graphs – where node in-degree has a power-law distribution [10, 13, 11, 7] – most of the content produced (i.e., activity) is generated by a small subset of users, while the majority of users act as passive information consumers [16]. Moreover, previous studies have shown that the around 50% of URLs consumed in Twitter are produced by a tiny portion of users (less than 1%) [22]. However, while previous work shows that to have a lot of followers cannot be considered as synonym of influence [4], nowadays we do not know enough about most active users. In this paper we try to understand the importance and characteristics of most active users regarding the generation of content. 3. EXPERIMENTAL FRAMEWORK 3.1 Assumptions and Definitions We consider that each unit of activity (tweets or posts) is one unit of content and that the overall activity is proportional to the wisdom of the crowd. A possible variation is to consider the length of the text of the tweet or the post. Nevertheless, as these texts are small (e.g. tweet length is capped by 140 characters), the results should be similar. Later on this paper, we discuss about the content’s quality, and how it relates with the concept of wisdom. To distinguish top contributors (wise users or digital exhibitionists) from the rest of the active users, we use the following arbitrary definition for a given time period: wise users are the set of most-active users such that they contribute with 50% of the content (or half of the wisdom). Other definitions are possible, for example based in a larger percentage, but we consider that 50% is already a majority of the content. Nevertheless, the results would be similar as all the distributions involved resemble power laws. We call the rest of the users, in fact, the majority of them, others. 3.2 Datasets We use two different datasets from two different kind of social networks: Twitter, a micro-blogging social network; and Facebook, a pure social network. For all the experiments we consider only the active users, meaning users that have shown some posting activity in the time period considered. Facebook: This dataset corresponds to the New Orleans Facebook’s Regional Network (Regional Networks were deprecated by Facebook in August of 2009). [21]. We have two lists: the first one contains the social graph (friendships) and a second list with user-to-user wall posts (where u,v means user v posting in u’s wall), and the timestamp. All these data hasbeen anonymized. The social graph has 1,545,686 edges between 63,731 users. The information about wall posts has 876,993 actions, with 39,986 users doing at least one post (active users). Hence, we can estimate that at least 37% of users are passive or inactive. Notice that these are users that have a public profile, so although the set is partial, is what can be compared to other datasets based on public data as the next one. This dataset has wall posts from 14th of September 2004 to 22th January of 2009 according to Table 1. We use the last three years as the two first are too small. The Pearson correlation of the number of posts with respect to the number of friends, using a logarithmic transformation to linearize the distributions, is 0.64. That is, the distributions are partially correlated. The distribution of posts versus users follows a power law of parameter -1.58. Twitter: Our dataset contains almost all the tweets done in Twitter between March 1st until May 31st of 2009. We also have the complete social graph of Twitter for that period. This information is a subset of the dataset obtained in [4]. Specifically, tweets are represented as a list of pairs (user id,timestamp), and the social graph is an adjacency list. The social graph has 1,963 of edges between 42 million of users (688 million edges between 12 millions of active users). The activity considers 440 million of tweets produced by the active users. In fact, the number of nonactive users (71%) is more than 2.4 times larger than the number of active users (29%). Hence, our analysis would be more striking if we take percentages over the whole user population. Our Twitter data has two limitations: (i) we have “only” the last 3,200 tweets from each user, but we have found only 167 of users with more tweets than this threshold in around 50 millions users; 2( In any case, this implies that our results are a good lower bound because we are trimming the most active users ) and (ii) from the social graph, we cannot establish when each edge was created, therefore we are working with the final snapshot of that graph. In order to study the UCG with different time granularity, in our experiments we use this dataset in two different ways: first, the full dataset split in months and next, a smaller sample where we split in weeks the first three weeks of May. Tables 2 and 3 gives the details of them. The distribution of tweets versus users can be approximated by a power law of parameter -2.1. On the other hand, the Pearson correlation of the number of tweets with respect to the number of followers, using again the logarithmic transformation, is 0.68. That is, the distributions are again partially correlated. 4. EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 4.1 Wise and Others We start by finding the proportional sizes of the user groups defined in the previous section. Figure 1 shows that the distribution of user activity is very skewed. For Twitter – Figure 1 (right) – where we have more data points, we show that the distribution also depends on the time window considered, as a longer time window implies that a smaller group of users produced most of the content. For three years, we found that in the Facebook dataset, the wise users were just 7.0% of the total. On the other hand, in a period of three months, we found that in the Twitter dataset the wise users accounted for just 2.4% of them. In the case of the Twitter dataset, looking at the social graph we found that even though wise users are less than 3%, they concentrate more than the 35% of the incoming edges, therefore they have also a higher in-degree (see Table 4). On the other hand, in the Facebook dataset, 7% of the users concentrate 21% of the links. This is not surprising as the Facebook social graph is more sparse as friendship is bidirectional and both users have to accept the relation. To measure the connectivity of each group, we use the Gamma index, that is the ratio between the links observed over all possible links in the complete graph of active users [15]. A larger Gamma Index means higher connectivity into the graph. In Twitter we see that wise are the most cohesive group. In Facebook the differences are even bigger, as wise users are five orders of magnitude more cohesive than the rest. Differences between Twitter and Facebook might be due to the different nature of the link creation process in each platform (in Facebook both parts needs to agree to create a link, while in Twitter each user can decide alone) and the type of graph. However, in both cases wise users are more cohesive than the rest, suggesting that they are a highly connected elite. We can partially compare these results to the content generation process ofWikipedia. Indeed, according to data published by Wikipedia itself, the top 10,000 editors produce 33% of the content editions. Considering that there arealmost 20.8 million registered editors, the top editors represent just 0.04% of them. As the number of passive users, that is, people that use Wikipedia but do not contribute with content, is more than one billion, the percentage of active editors with respect to the total number of users is negligible. Something similar happens with the creation of the almost 4.5 million Wikipedia articles in English, where the 2,005 most prolific authors account for the creation of 50% of the articles [17]. This is less than 0.01% of registered editors, and this number would be even smaller if non-registered users could be taken into account. 4.2 Evolution Along Time Now we find the percentage of wise users for different periods of time for both datasets. Results are detailed in Tables 5 and 6. This shows that even though the percentage of wise users decreases with larger time windows, the absolute number is pretty stable. However, are those wise users always the same? Table 7 shows the percentage of users that were in the wise group in the first year and stay there in the next two years for the Facebook dataset. Table 8 shows the percentage of users that were in the wise group in the first week and stay there during the next two weeks for the small Twitter dataset. As can be seen the wise users are very stable, as more than 70% or 80% remains after three years or weeks, respectively. In Figure 2 we show the dynamics of the wise and others groups, during three years or months for both datasets, showing the percentage of people that come from the groups in the previous month as well as the percentage of new users. The numbers displayed in the edges, represents the percentage of users going to a given group in previous/next time slot. Outgoing edges pointing to previous time slot (e.g. from month 2 to month 1) shows where the users come from, while edges pointing to the next time slot shows the destiny of those users. For example, in Figure 2 (b), in month 2, 66% of wise users come from the wise group in month 1, 27% from others and, 7% from new users (users that were not active in month 1). Next, 92% of those wise users, stay in the wise group in month 3, and 8% went to others. Another way to understand this, would be look at symmetric edges. For example, in month 3, 1% of the new users went to wise group, while 4% percent of the total of wise users come from new users. Overall, we can see that groups are quite stable if we do not consider new users. In fact, at the end of three periods, most of the wise users have always been in this group, for example in Figure 2 (a), 74% of wise users stay in that group from year 1 to year 2, and then 98% stay in that group from year 2 to year 3, confirming the stability of this group. 4.3 The Digital Desert In this section we analyze the phenomena of the content that is uploaded for some users, but is never seen by anyone else. We refer to this content as the digital desert. We can estimate a lower bound for the content that is never seen for the case of the Twitter dataset. (For the Facebook Dataset we cannot estimate the size of the digital desert because was obtained through a snowball sampling) In fact, a lower bound for the digital desert can be computed as the percentage of content generated by people that has no followers. (Potentially, content uploaded by users without followers can be reached through the search page of Twitter or a generic search engine. However, tweets posted by users without followers are unlikely to be top-ranked in any search results.) This percentage of people is only 0.06% for the wise group but 20.58% for the others group. This accounts for 0.03% and 1.08% of the whole content, respectively. Hence, the digital dessert in this dataset is at least 1.11%. Although small, this implies that the opinion of some people is not really considered and hence is not part of the collective wisdom. The size of the digital desert increases if we look at another kind of UGC platform such as Wikipedia. Comparing the logs of requested pages in the English Wikipedia during a month (June 2014) (https://dumps.wikimedia.org/other/pagecounts-raw/) with the new content added in the previous month (May 2014) we see that from the 1,350,554 articles edited/added during that month, 31% of them were not visited (These visits include humans and bots.) in June. This is an upper bound for the digital desert in this dataset and time period. 5. QUALITY OF THE WISDOM In previous sections we have used an arbitrary definition of wisdom that is directly related with the amount of content produced by users. However, one can argue that quantity of content produced (i.e., activity) does not imply equal contribution to the global wisdom. To address this problem we need to measure the quality of content. Unfortunately, it is not simply to measure content quality in a social network, because it would be difficult to define what is a “good tweet” or a “good post” in Facebook. One option is to relate quality with popularity (e.g., retweets or likes), but such metric would be clearly biased towards popular users. Therefore,it is preferable to use a dataset where the quality of users’ contributions it is clearly ranked by the readers. A good example of such kind of content are Amazon’s products reviews, where readers can evaluate the helpfulness of a review by answering yes or no to the following question: “Was this review helpful to you?” Specifically, we use a public Amazon’s movie reviews dataset released by [12] in 2013. This dataset contains almost 8 million reviews, from 889,176 users, of around 250K different movies, in a p erio d of 15 years (from 1997 to 2012). From each review we have – among other things – the (anonymized) author, the content, and also a field called “helpfulness”, that contains the numb er of readers that have rated the review as helpful or not. In order to make this data comparable with the previous experiments, first we divided users in wise and others, following the definition given in Section 3.1 that based in the amount of activity (previously numb er of p ost or tweets, now numb er of reviews). In this case we found that 4% of users pro duced 50% of all reviews. This is similar to Facebook (7%) and Twitter (2%), suggesting that the pro cess of content generation is comparable with the previous cases. For future comparison we denote this group of users as activitybased-wise. Next, we want to redefine wisdom by adding the dimension of content’s quality. To do that, we say that users are contributing to the wisdom only if each review has been rated as helpful by at least one reader. The intuition behind this definition is that if a review help ed at least one user, the review is a contribution to the total wisdom. Obviously, stronger requirements can b e imp osed (e.g., that at least 50% of the users rating a review found it useful). However, our definition will establish a lower bound for the content’s value. Hence, now the total wisdom will be the sum of all helpful reviews. Surprisingly, we found that 64% of the reviews were helpful for at least one reader, and 66% of users have produced at least one helpful review, showing that a wide group of users contribute to the total good content and that almost two thirds of the whole wisdom generated is valuable. However, breaking down the results we found that – again – just 2.5% of the users produced 50% of the total helpful reviews. We denote these users as quality-basedwise. Moreover, we found that quality-based-wise users is a proper subset of the activity-based-wise users in this dataset. We also compute the (review) entropy for each user. To that aim, we grouped the reviews of each single user, and then computed the Shannon entropy in that text. Interestingly, we found that the Spearman correlation between activity and entropy is low (0.32), while the correlation between entropy and helpfulness is slightly higher (0.43). Figure 3 shows that from a certain level of users’ entropy the reviews tend to be more useful, but that also there is a saturation point where more entropy does not imply more helpfulness. This relation between entropy and value (helpfulness) is useful to generalize these results because we expect that users that introduce more information per word (i.e., higher text entropy) are – at the same time – adding more wisdom. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK Our results, added to social influences, undermines the independence principle that is needed to have a real wisdom of crowds [20], as the percentage of people that produces most of the content is really small. Moreover, if we consider that very active people is highly connected among them, compared with the rest of users, creating a cohesive elite. The diversity principle is also challenged, as many users do not contribute to the wisdom, either because they do not exercise this option or because their opinion is not taken in account (the digital desert). The distribution of how people contribute to wisdom becomes more skewed when a filter of quality is introduced. Although many people show the capability of producing helpful content, the majority of such content is produced by just asubset of the elite. The datasets used are already a bit old, but on the other hand one of them is complete and less noisy than a more current dataset, as at that time Twitter had less spam than nowadays. For sure the results in other datasets would bedifferent, but we believe the issues addressed in this paper will remain valid for the majority of UCG. Finally, although we would like to believe that the Web is a more democratic environment as all the people has the same opportunities, at the end the Web mimics our society. Indeed, the economic or political power in most countriesbelongs to a minority of the people. Even when explicit decisions must be taken through elections or referendums, many people choose not to exercise their right to vote. REFERENCES[1] R. Baeza-Yates and A. Tiberi. Extracting semantic relations from query logs. In Proceedings of the 13th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, pages 76–85. ACM, 2007.[2] P. Boldi, F. Bonchi, C. Castillo, D. Donato, A. Gionis, and S. Vigna. The query-flow graph: Model and applications. In Proceedings of the 17th ACM Conference on Information and Knowledge Management, CIKM ’08, pages 609–618, New York, NY, USA, 2008. ACM.[3] H. Cao, D. Jiang, J. Pei, Q. He, Z. Liao, E. Chen, and H. Li. 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In Proceedings of the 2nd ACM SIGCOMM Workshop on Social Networks (WOSN’09), Barcelona, Spain, August 2009.[22] S. Wu, J. M. Hofman, W. A. Mason, and D. J. Watts. Who says what to whom on twitter. In Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web, pages 705–714. ACM, 2011. A Harvard Mad Scientist Invented Ice Cream That Has Skin In a sleek new restaurant in Cambridge, Massachusetts, David Edwards is trying to change the way we take in nutrition. The professor, writer, entrepreneur and inventor has created a range of food innovations, from a carafe that will turn your scotch into an inhalable cloud to a device to print smells sent from your iPhone. His best known creation is wikicells, an edible skin meant to replace traditional food packaging. Edwards’ biggest problem isn’t creating these alternatives, it’s selling the public on them. (Video by Drew Beebe, David Yim and Alyssa Zahler) News about the Future Artificial muscle Stanford researchers create super stretchy, self-healing material that could lead to artificial muscle Researchers show how jolting this material with an electrical field causes it to twitch or pulse in a muscle-like fashion. This polymer can also stretch to 100 times its original length, and even repair itself if punctured. This new material, in addition to being extraordinarily stretchy, has remarkable self-healing characteristics. Damaged polymers typically require a solvent or heat treatment to restore their properties, but the new material showed a remarkable ability to heal itself at room temperature, even if the damaged pieces are aged for days. Indeed, researchers found that it could self-repair at temperatures as low as negative 4 degrees Fahrenheit (-20 C), or about as cold as a commercial walk-in freezer. Freight Farms Freight Farms is addressing the needs of the world’s changing food landscape by providing physical and digital solutions for creating local produce ecosystems on a global scale. Freight Farms customers are located across North America and range from entrepreneurs and small businesses, to hotels and restaurants, to corporations and educational institutions. By decentralizing the food supply chain and bringing production closer to consumers, Freight Farms is drastically reducing the environmental impact of traditional agriculture and empowering any individual, community or organization to sustainably grow fresh produce year-round, no matter their location, background or climate. Built entirely inside a 40’ x 8’ x 9.5’ shipping container, freight farms are outfitted with all the tools needed for high-volume, consistent harvests. With innovative climate technology and growing equipment, the perfect environment is achievable 365 days a year, regardless of geographic location. Mathematics and sex Mathematics and sex are deeply intertwined. From using mathematics to reveal patterns in our sex lives, to using sex to prime our brain for certain types of problems, to understanding them both in terms of the evolutionary roots of our brain, Dr Clio Cresswell shares her insight into it all. Dr Clio Cresswell is a Senior Lecturer in Mathematics at The University of Sydney researching the evolution of mathematical thought and the role of mathematics in society. Born in England, she spent part of her childhood on a Greek island, and was then schooled in the south of France where she studied Visual Art. At eighteen she simultaneously discovered the joys of Australia and mathematics, following on to win the University Medal and complete a PhD in mathematics at The University of New South Wales. Communicating mathematics is her field and passion. Clio has appeared on panel shows commenting, debating and interviewing; authored book reviews and opinion pieces; joined breakfast radio teams and current affair programs; always there highlighting the mathematical element to our lives. She is author of Mathematics and Sex. Recommended Book: Daemon Daemon by Daniel Suarez Technology controls almost everything in our modern-day world, from remote entry on our cars to access to our homes, from the flight controls of our airplanes to the movements of the entire world economy. Thousands of autonomous computer programs, or daemons, make our networked world possible, running constantly in the background of our lives, trafficking e-mail, transferring money, and monitoring power grids. For the most part, daemons are benign, but the same can’t always be said for the people who design them. Matthew Sobol was a legendary computer game designer — the architect behind half-a-dozen popular online games. His premature death depressed both gamers and his company’s stock price. But Sobol’s fans aren’t the only ones to note his passing. When his obituary is posted online, a previously dormant daemon activates, initiating a chain of events intended to unravel the fabric of our hyper-efficient, interconnected world. With Sobol’s secrets buried along with him, and as new layers of his daemon are unleashed at every turn, it’s up to an unlikely alliance to decipher his intricate plans and wrest the world from the grasp of a nameless, faceless enemy — or learn to live in a society in which we are no longer in control. . Futurist Portrait: Thornton May Thornton May is a futurist, educator and author. His extensive experience researching and consulting on the role and behaviors of “C” level executives in creating value with information technology has won him an unquestioned place on the short list of serious thinkers on this topic. Thornton combines a scholar’s patience for empirical research, a stand-up comic’s capacity for pattern recognition and a second-to-none gift for storytelling to address the information technology management problems facing executives. The editors at eWeek honored Thornton, including him on their list of Top 100 Most Influential People in IT. The editors at Fast Company labeled him ‘one of the top 50 brains in business.’ Thornton has established a reputation for innovation in time-compressed, collaborative problem solving. Thornton designs the curriculum that enables the mental models that allow organizations to outperform competitors, delight customers and extract maximum value from tools and suppliers. He specializes in creating action-based learning spaces for high performance organizations. He ran the multi-client research program at the Nolan Norton Institute, led the Management Lab at Cambridge Technology Partners, co-founded the Olin Innovation Lab, and founded the CIO Institutes at UCLA and UC-Berkeley. He co-manages the CIO Solutions Gallery at THE Ohio State University, co-directs the CIO Practicum program at the University of Kentucky and was the Executive Director and Dean of the IT Leadership Academy at Florida State College at Jacksonville. Thornton serves as Futurist – External Technology Advisory Board at the Franklin W. Olin College of Engineering and is on the Advisory Board of Mobiquity, Inc. Thornton’s research has been acknowledged in such seminal business books as Seth Godin’s Permission Marketing; Michael Schrage’s Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate; Moshe Rubenstein’s The Minding Organization; Bill Jensen’s Simplicity; and Jeff Williams’ Renewable Advantage: Crafting Strategy Through Economic Time. Thornton’s book, The New Know: Innovation Powered by Analytics, analyzes what organizations know, how they come to know and how they act upon what they know/don’t know. Thornton obtained his bachelor’s degree in Asian Studies from Dartmouth College; his master’s degree in Industrial Administration from Carnegie-Mellon University, and developed his Japanese language competence at the Center for Japanese Studies at the University of Michigan and Keio University in Japan. Thornton May – Computerworld: “For the past seven years, I have traveled around the world asking organizations what they know, what they don’t know, what they need to know and how they come to know. Answers in hand, I have set about examining the data in the context of business outcomes and mission accomplishment (in the case of not-for-profit enterprises). I have come to some broad conclusions about the general state of knowing in the world today. A paradox has emerged. Generally, our capacity to know (that is, what is knowable) is expanding exponentially, thanks to technology improvements (for example, affordable sensors and improved and accelerated analytics) and the apparently never-ending emergence of new sharing platforms (Facebook, YouTube, etc.). What we actually know, on the other hand, appears to be advancing linearly — when it advances at all. Thus, I respond to Nick Carr’s question “Is Google Making Us Stupid?” in the negative. I maintain that Google isn’t making us stupid.” Thornton May: Technology Futurist, Author, Educator and Keynote Speaker Agenda 15 Nov 2016morning AmsterdamHow Fashion Meets ImpactA Blue Ocean Investment Strategy for the Global Textile & Garment Industryin cooperation with Impact EconomyLocation: Denim City | Amsterdam, Hannie Dankbaarpassage 47, 1052 RT Amsterdam printable version