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Club of Amsterdam Journal, July / August 2020, Issue 227

Content Rewilding: rare birds return when livestock grazing has stopped by Lisa Malm Finding the people and the books transforming the future of society and business in positive ways The Future Now ShowA third way: Self Sovereign Identity and Disposable Identities with Rob van Kranenburg Project Dormio: Interfacing with Dreams by MIT’s Dream Lab News about the Future: Reshaping the retail experience / DNA testing kits directly to consumers Fraunhofer UMSICHT – a pioneer for sustainable energy and raw materials management Recommended Book: Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World by Brian Walker Electric Oil Tankers & Batteries in EVERYTHING by Fully Charged Climate Change Success Story: Farming for Conservation -The Burren Programme Futurist Portrait: Andy Lowe, Food Futurist Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about A third way: Self Sovereign Identity and Disposable Identities with Rob van Kranenburg The COVID19 virus exposes not only the fragility of an economic system that cannot go on hold for even a fews months, the inadequacy of governance tools and the lack of faith of people in their leaders, but foremost it exposes the lack of fundamental trust of citizens all over the world in that what they paradoxically have in their hands most of the time: the smartphone. Felix B BoppFounder & Chairman, Club of AmsterdamUniversal Peace Ambassador Rewilding: lessons from the medieval Baltic crusades By Lisa Malm, Postdoctoral Fellow, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Umeå University Contributor: Darren Evans, Professor of Ecology and Conservation, Newcastle University Erik Mandre/Shutterstock.comLisa Malm, Umeå University After a particularly long week of computer based work on my PhD, all I wanted was to hike somewhere exciting with a rich wildlife. A friend commiserated with me – I was based at Newcastle University at the time, and this particular friend wasn’t keen on the UK’s wilderness, its moorlands and bare uplands, compared to the large tracts of woodland and tropical forests that can be found more readily abroad. Luckily, I count myself among many who are charmed by the rolling heather moorlands and sheep grazed uplands, whose colours change beautifully with the seasons. But my friend had a point – there is something very different about many of the UK’s national parks compared to those found in much of the rest of the world: the British uplands are hardly the natural wilderness that many perceive. These upland habitats are in fact far from what they would have been had they remained unaffected by human activity. In particular, grazing by livestock has been carried out for centuries. In the long run, this stops new trees from establishing, and in turn reduces the depth of soil layers, making the conditions for new vegetation to establish even more difficult. Instead of the woodlands that would once have covered large areas of the uplands, Britain is largely characterised by rolling hills of open grass and moorlands. Government policy has long been to keep these rolling hills looking largely as they do now. But the future of the British uplands is uncertain. Regulations and government policy strongly influences land management, and the biodiversity associated with it. In fact, the management required to maintain British upland landscapes as they are now – management that largely involves grazing by sheep – is only possible through large subsidies. And due to Brexit, this may change. A new agricultural policy will soon replace the often-criticised Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Joe Dunckley/Shutterstock.com What this will look like remains unclear. There are a range of competing interests in the uplands. Some wish to rewild vast swathes of the land, while others want to intensify farming, forestry and other commercial interests. The rewilders tap into the increased interest in restoring natural woodland due to its potential in carbon uptake, increased biodiversity and reintroduction of extinct species such as wolves and lynxes, while some farmers argue that this will be bad for the economy. The UK stands at a crossroads, and interests are rapidly diverging. Whatever path is taken will obviously have an impact on the unique assemblages of upland plants and animals, many of which are internationally important. But upland birds and biodiversity have for a long time been on the decline. Whether rewilding is the answer to this or not has long been debated: some claim that we need to stop grazing animals to allow the natural habitat to reassert itself, while others claim that some species, such as curlews, rely on such grazing practises for their survival. But our new research, published in the British Ecological Society’s Journal of Applied Ecology, provides the first experimental evidence to our knowledge, that stopping livestock grazing can increase the number of breeding upland bird species in the long term, including birds of high conservation importance, such as black grouse and cuckoo. This is interesting, as it is often argued that land abandonment can result in lower biodiversity and that livestock grazing is essential for maintaining it. Our research shows that, depending on how the uplands are managed, there will be bird “winners” and “losers”, but overall when sheep have gone the number of bird species returning increases. A subsidised landscape Before going into the research itself, it’s important to consider the history of British upland land management. Truly “natural” habitats in the UK are few and relatively small. Deciduous woodland, and to a lesser extent coniferous forests, used to cover most of the British uplands below the treeline. For example, only about 1% of the native pine forests that once covered 1.5 million hectares (15,000km²) of the Scottish Highlands remain today. These woodlands provided homes for charismatic species such as pine marten, red squirrel and osprey, together with now extinct species such as lynx and bears. But centuries of farming has shaped most of the upland landscape to what it is today: a predominantly bare landscape dominated by moorlands, rough grasslands, peatlands and other low vegetation. Michael Conrad/Shutterstock.com These marginal areas tend to have low financial profitability for those who farm the land. And so a range of other activities, such as grouse shooting and commercial forestry, exist to boost rural community incomes. Despite their low profitability, however, many grazed areas are considered to represent “high nature value” farming. This seems paradoxical, but basically means they are considered important as habitats to protected species benefiting from open upland landscapes. One such species is the iconic curlew. Because farming is tough in the uplands and it’s a struggle to make a profit, landowners receive, and often rely on, subsidies to maintain their farms. The form of these subsidies has changed over time, in line with the current perception of appropriate land management for food production. At the moment, the scale of these subsidies are based on the size of the farm, but they also require that the farmer maintains the land in a good agricultural state. This leaves little room for shrubs or trees, except along field edges, especially in England where there is no financial support for agroforestry (where trees are integrated in agricultural land). But these subsidies will soon no longer be allocated through the EU – and so it’s time to reconsider what kind of land management should be supported. It seems sensible to consider introducing financial support for other land management types, such as reforestation, natural regeneration or wildflower meadows. Such habitats have other public and nature conservation benefits. Coatesy/Shutterstock.com It’s not just farming and aesthetics that are at stake here. Challenges such as climate change and air pollution should also inform how financial support for appropriate land management is managed. For example, floods are predicted to become more common as the climate gets warmer. Reforestation can help to diminish floods, the roots channelling water down through the soil instead of letting it run off the land. Re-establishment of woodlands can also improve air quality: the leaves absorb harmful gases such as sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. But rewilding, or any form of restructuring land management, can be costly. It therefore needs to be based on the best scientific evidence, preferably from well-designed experimental research studies. In controlled experimental studies, the cause for any effects found can more easily be determined, as opposed to observational studies, which risk being biased by other, confounding, factors. But due to the cost and complexity of maintaining them, long-term, experimentally manipulated land use studies are rare, and with it the necessary evidence base for long-term management decisions. Experimental grazing I’ve been lucky to be involved in one such long-term experiment. The Glen Finglas experiment, managed by the James Hutton Institute, was set up in 2002 in Scotland’s Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park. The experiment examines the long-term ecological impacts of different livestock grazing intensity levels on plants, arthropods (insects and spiders), birds and mammals. These grazing levels reflect the conventional stocking rate in the region at the start of the experiment (about three ewes per ha), low intensity grazing at a third of the conventional stocking rate (with sheep only or both sheep and cattle), or no grazing at all. The experiment has six replicates of four grazing treatments and covers around 0.75km² of land, with 12km of fencing. This may not seem large, but in experimental terms, it is. According to Robin Pakeman, a researcher at the James Hutton Institute who manages the project, the experiment constitutes “an unrivalled resource to understand how grazing impacts on a whole range of organisms”. Since the start, the Glen Finglas experiment has shown that grazing intensity affects plants and the amount of insects and spiders. The highest amount of plants, insects and spiders were found in the ungrazed areas. This was not too surprising as grazing livestock removes vegetation, which results in reduced habitat conditions for insects and spiders overall (although some species benefit from grazing). There have also been studies on carbon storage, vole abundances and fox activity within the experiment. These have shown higher carbon storage and higher fox activity in the ungrazed areas. Meanwhile, the research on birds within this experiment has, from the start, focused on meadow pipits. These small, brown birds are the “house sparrows of the uplands”, yet often go unnoticed. But they are the most common upland bird and an important part of upland food webs, forming key prey for birds of prey such as hen harriers and a common host for cuckoos. The experiment has provided unique insights into the ecology of this fascinating little bird, and a much clearer understanding of how it is affected by grazing. In just the first two to three years, it became clear that meadow pipits could be affected by grazing intensity. My PhD supervisor, Darren Evans, found that the breeding density and egg size were both positively affected by low intensity mixed cattle and sheep grazing. But there were no differences in how many meadow pipit chicks were produced and fledged between the grazing treatments, at least not in the very early phase of the experiment. I wanted to test whether these results changed in the longer term. Together with colleagues from Newcastle University, the British Trust for Ornithology, The James Hutton Institute and The University of Aberdeen, we looked at whether 12 years of continuous experimental grazing management had affected the breeding success of meadow pipits. We assumed that low intensity grazing, compared to high intensity or no grazing, was most beneficial for pipit breeding productivity. We found the low intensity grazed areas did indeed seem to be better for meadow pipits, but the effects were not clear enough to be statistically significant. And there seemed to be potentially more important factors, such as predation, affecting their breeding outcome. But although we did not initially set out to test it, we found other, more significant, effects on the wider bird community. Unexpected findings When the experiment started, there were almost no bird species other than meadow pipits in and around the treatment areas, hence the focus on them. But in 2015, while looking for meadow pipit nests, we came across a few other beautiful nests in the low intensity grazed areas. These nests had colourful blue eggs or eggs that appeared to have been painted with dark brown watercolour paint. These turned out to be stonechat and reed bunting eggs, two bird species that had not previously been seen in the experiment. Later on, we saw that they had fledged successfully: the parents would call them to warn about human intruders. If we didn’t get too close, the newly fledged young would curiously nudge their heads up through the vegetation. By this stage of the experiment – 12 years in – the vegetation had actually become quite dense and high in the ungrazed and some of the low intensity grazed areas. We also detected several black grouse nests, mainly in the ungrazed areas. Most of them were already hatched, but one had a female who bravely stayed put on her eggs every time we visited this area until they hatched. Another great discovery was when we found a meadow pipit nest with one egg that seemed oddly big in comparison to the rest of the clutch. We were really excited to realise that it had been visited by a cuckoo that had laid an egg there, which hadn’t happened during the early years of nest monitoring in the experiment. This egg had a brown spotted pattern which was fascinatingly similar to the meadow pipit eggs. (As exciting as this all may seem, nest searching should only be carried out under permit. I also had a bird ringing permit covering my research activities). Thanks to all these encounters, we decided to test how the different grazing treatments affected the species richness of breeding birds. Over the first two years, we found that there was basically no difference. But another decade on and there were clearly more bird species found in the ungrazed areas compared to the other experimental plots. A fractious debate It was not only bird species richness that needed time to respond to the change in grazing management. Although plant structure responded early, it was not until 2017 – 14 years since the experiment began – that an effect on plant species richness could be detected. In this case, the variety of species was greater in the intensively grazed areas, probably because the livestock holds back fast-growing plants from dominating. Whether this would remain the same in another decade is far from clear. The ungrazed areas in our study, meanwhile, showed more shrub and tall-growing plants after a bit more than a decade. There were also patches of deciduous tree species, which were not there when the experiment commenced. Rewilding is such a fractious debate because of the difficulty in obtaining solid scientific evidence on which to base decisions. It takes a very long time – far longer than our political cycles, most research studies, perhaps even a lifetime – to determine what the ultimate effects of large scale land management on the environment are. In our experiment, changes have been very slow. Pakeman explained to me that this is partly expected in cold and infertile habitats but another reason for slow responses is that plant communities exist in a sort of “mosaic”, with each community having a different preference for the grazers. He continued: The long history of grazing has meant that the most highly preferred communities show little response to grazing removal as they have lost species capable of responding to this change. There is no one management practice which creates the perfect environment. Some bird species (skylark and snipe) were only found in grazed areas. Other species were more abundant in the ungrazed areas. There is no one size fits all. But much more consideration and effort needs to be given to unattended land and its potential for boosting biodiversity. There is no single answer to what is the best alternative, but our experiment indicates that a mosaic of different grazing types and shrub or woodland would be more suitable if the aim is to increase biodiversity, carbon uptake and habitats for endangered species. The experiment also showed that changing the management had no effects on plant diversity and bird species richness in the first years. But this may only be the beginning of the transformation. Another decade of no grazing may result in even higher, or lower, species richness. This shows how important it is to be patient in receiving the effects of land management on plants and wildlife. Using existing evidence Our results bring some experimental evidence to the debate around sheep farming versus rewilding. Hopefully, decisions around new policies and subsidy systems will be based on such evidence. As new policies are formed, there will inevitably always be winners and losers, among both humans and wildlife, according to which habitat types receive more support. Biodiversity is incredibly important. It creates a more resilient ecosystem that can withstand external stresses caused by both humans and nature. It also keeps populations of pollinators strong. At the moment, perhaps the most current and urgent reason is that it could be instrumental in protecting us from future pandemics. A wider range of species prevents unnatural expansions of single species, which can spill over their diseases to humans. But preserving biodiversity is just one element of long-term environmental aims. Other processes, such as increased flood protection and carbon storage, which both can be achieved through more vegetation, may soon become more prevalent. There are therefore several biological processes pointing towards public gain from increasing the area of unmanaged land. Across Europe, land is being abandoned due to low profitability in farming it. There are predictions that the amount of abandoned land in Europe will increase by 11% (equivalent to 200,000km² or 20 million ha) by 2030. This is often reported negatively, but it does not have to be. The problem most people see with land abandonment or rewilding is the decrease in food productivity, which will have to increase in order to feed a growing human population. But as Richard Bunting at the charity Rewilding Britain explained to me, a decline in food production could be avoided, while increasing the areas subject to rewilding to 10,000km² (a million hectares) by the end of the century:We’re working for the rewilding of a relatively small proportion of Britain’s more marginal land. One million hectares may sound like a lot, but there are 1.8 million hectares [18,000km²] of deer stalking estates and 1.3 million hectares [13,000km²] of grouse moors in Britain. In England alone, there are 270,000 hectares [2,700km²] of golf courses. As farmers and other upland land owners may be opposed to the idea of rewilding, I also asked him how this would work in practice. He told me that he believes farming and rewilding could work well together, but he had some caveats: We do need conversations around fresh approaches to the way farming is carried out and how land is used. A key point here is that for farmers, engaging with rewilding should always be about choice, as we seek a balance between people and the rest of nature where each can thrive. There are many ways to rewild. The Woodland Trust have been successful in restoring ancient woodlands and planting new trees by protecting them from large herbivores such as deer and livestock. Another method is to let “nature have its way” without intervening at all. This has been successful in restoring natural habitats, including woodland, such as the Knepp estate in West Sussex, which Isabella Tree has made famous in her book Wilding. After 19 years of no conventional management, The Knepp estate now hosts a vast range of wildlife, including all five native owl species, the rare purple emperor butterfly and turtle doves. Large herbivores, including both livestock and deer, graze the area on a free-roaming level. These animals are replacing the large natural herbivores such as aurochs, wisent and wild boar which would have grazed the area thousands of years ago. So there is room for discussion on what environmental and financial benefits there may be of different rewilding, or woodland restoration projects, and where they are most suitable. The first thing to do, I think, is to diversify the types of land management championed by the government through subsidy. Natural habitats could be increased through more financial benefits to landowners for leaving land unattended, while improving public interest in visiting woodlands and thereby the support for preserving wild habitats. Meanwhile, long-term research of land-use change would give us a better evidence base for future decisions. But this must go hand in hand with much needed serious evaluations of rural communities’ long-term income opportunities under alternative management scenarios, which will always be a cornerstone in land use politics. Finding the people and the books transforming the future of society and business in positive ways 2020 has changed not only where people work from, but how they work and what tools they use. We are undoubtedly all trying to strike a balance between thinking about two very important realities: the now and the future. The recent pandemic has changed everything we know, particularly about how we remain socially connected. But as more countries begin to lift their lockdown measures, and as we navigate one crisis after another, it seems, we are faced with the problem of how to return to normal. And should we want to? We want to find the people and the books that are already transforming the future of society and business, defining the new ways in which people are approaching their everyday tasks and mindsets. Thinking about the future requires a diversity of views. We need to involve experts from many different domains. We need to include people who bring different perspectives on demographics, economics, technology, artificial intelligence, business organization, mental health, and more. We need young people in the room. A robust working future is a product of collective intelligence, according to the IFTF. This is not about predicting the future, rather it is about engaging people in thinking deeply about complex issues, imagining new possibilities, connecting signals into larger patterns, connecting the past with the present and the future, and making better choices today. For this contest, The Future Of, Publishizer and our partners are seeking topics from futurists, speakers, coaches, and forward thinkers on a broad range of well-defined topics, such as business, self-help, mindfulness, well-being, fitness, clean living, decluttering/organization, psychology and anxiety (especially kids and teens), eco-friendly/zero waste, retail, trees and birdwatching, homeschooling, productivity, true crime, nature-oriented, hidden histories, cultural trends, pop-science, and entrepreneurship. The Future Of Book ideas that aim to reshape or reimagine our future Submissions open now until August 1, 2020 The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. July / August 2020 A third way:Self Sovereign Identity and Disposable Identities withRob van Kranenburg The Future Now ShowCreditsRob van Kranenburg, Transition Coach, BelgiumFounder of Internet of Things Councilwww.theinternetofthings.eu/rob-van-kranenburg Project Dormio: Interfacing with Dreams Photo: MIT MIT’s Dream LabProject Dormio: Interfacing with Dreams Overview Sleep is a forgotten country of the mind; a vast majority of our technologies are built for our waking state, even though a third of our lives are spent asleep. Current technological interfaces miss out on an opportunity to access the unique, imaginative, elastic cognition ongoing during dreams and semi-lucid states. In turn, each of us misses an opportunity to use interfaces to influence our own processes of memory consolidation, creative insight generation, gist extraction, and emotion regulation that are so deeply sleep-dependent. Inspiration Sleep is a forgotten country of the mind. A vast majority of our technologies are built for our waking state, even though a third of our lives are spent asleep. Current technological interfaces miss an opportunity to access the unique, imaginative, elastic cognition ongoing during dreams and semi-lucid states. In turn, each of us misses an opportunity to use interfaces to influence our own processes of memory consolidation, creative insight generation, gist extraction, and emotion regulation that are so deeply sleep-dependent. In this project, we explore ways to augment human creativity by extending, influencing, and capturing dreams in Stage 1 sleep. It is currently impossible to force ourselves to be creative because so much creative idea association and creative incubation happens in the absence of executive control and directed attention. Sleep offers an opportunity for prompting creative thought in the absence of directed attention, if only dreams can be controlled. Scientific Background During sleep onset, a window of opportunity arises in the form of hypnagogia, a semi-lucid sleep state where we all begin dreaming before we fall fully unconscious. Hypnagogia is characterized by phenomenological unpredictability, distorted perception of space and time, and spontaneous, fluid idea association. Edison, Tesla, Poe, and Dalí each accessed this state by napping with a steel ball in hand to capture creative ideas generated in hypnagogic microdreams when it dropped to the floor below. Engineering and Experimentation In this project we modernize this technique, using an interactive social robot accompanied with a custom sleep stage tracking system, and auditory biofeedback. We are able to influence, extract information from, and extend hypnagogic microdreams for the first time: we found that active use of hypnagogia with the system can augment human creativity. This system enables future research into sleep, an underutilized and understudied state of mind vital for memory, learning, and creativity. These Sleep Engineers Could Help You Hack Your Dreams The machine that lets you control your dreams News about the Future Reshaping the retail experience Based out of Tel Aviv, trigo’s team of world class experts is leading the forefront of the grocery industry. Trigo is a computer vision startup reshaping the retail experience. Leveraging world-class AI and algorithmics experts, the company’s advanced retail automation platform identifies customers’ shopping items with exceptional levels of accuracy, creating an entirely seamless checkout process. Trigo’s technology streamlines retail operations, prevents shoplifting, provides invaluable retail insights, and presents opportunities for new levels of customer engagement within retail environments. Trigo’s system consists of ceiling-mounted cameras and sensors powered by artificial intelligence that applies deep learning architecture. With this combination of hardware and software, we create a 3D image of the store and map the shoppers’ movements and their product choices. Using our unique 3D mapping capabilities, we provide an easy-to-integrate and highly-accurate system. DNA testing kits directly to consumers Genetic Researchers have started to identify which genes affect the onset of lifestyle diseases. Thus, a Genetic Test will allow you to understand which diseases you are at genetic risk of developing in the future.Of the Genes that are already mapped, it is known that each individual has a 0.1% difference in the sequence. Since the genes do not change during one’s lifetime, you need to only test once. You can make better lifestyle choices based on your risk profile. GeneLife‘s genetic testing services are brought to you by Genesis Healthcare Asia: a leader in genetic testing and research from Japan. GeneLife offers a range of DNA testing kits directly to consumers, enabling users to assess potential hereditary health risks and lifestyle related conditions Through our test reports and wellness recommendations, customers are empowered to know more about themselves and be informed about potential risks for the future. It allows them to make relevant proactive lifestyle adjustments to enhance their health. GeneLife offers a variety of genetic testing kits ranging from health, personality, diet and nutrition, beauty and skincare, sports and fitness as well as ancestry. Fraunhofer UMSICHT – a pioneer for sustainable energy and raw materials management Fraunhofer UMSICHT is a pioneer for sustainable energy and raw materials management by supplying and transferring scientific results into companies, society and politics. Our society continuously consumes raw materials and energy. How else can we produce, consume, be mobile, heat or cool? In our projects, we ask ourselves: How can we protect the climate and the environment? How do we conserve resources? How do we improve processes or products? What does it cost? Under what conditions do companies implement processes that make industrial societies sustainable? When do people like to contribute to change? We consider what needs to change and what we can do to achieve it. We estimate costs, advise and highlight solutions. Biofuel for ships Ships are among the biggest climate sinners. Millions of tonnes of combusted marine diesel pollute the environment. The shipping industry is responsible for emitting around a billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide worldwide each year. Dr. Andreas Menne, a mechanical engineer, and his colleagues at Fraunhofer UMSICHT in Oberhausen want to mitigate marine diesel’s adverse impact on the climate with a new technology. Menne, who heads up the Biorefinery and Biofuels department, and his team are producing synthetic diesel and gasoline made from renewable resources. To do so, they are converting bioethanol into diesel, gasoline or jet fuel that have nearly the same properties as fossil fuels. Renewables help slash the transportation sector’s CO2 emissions. “Straw, leaves, sawdust, waste wood – we can use almost anything as the feedstock for bioethanol,” says Menne. The new climate-friendly biofuel produces a lot less greenhouse gas. Vehicles should be able to run on nothing but this fuel. By contrast, just five to ten percent of the E10 fuel is bioethanol; the rest is of fossil origin. “We’re not going to feel much of a climate effect with that,” says Menne. “Electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles are not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as this has to happen. We need a holistic approach and a diversity of solutions for tomorrow’s fuels.” The pressure to take action is mounting with the revised Renewable Energies Directive (RED II) calling for advanced fuels to account for a share of 3.5 percent by 2030. The share of alternative fuels based on food crops is to be reduced by the same percentage. Bioethanol made of wheat straw The UMSICHT researchers are producing up to 20 liters of the new biofuel a week in an experimental plant. The feedstock is bioethanol sourced from wheat straw. “Actually, I could use any other alcohol,” says Menne. The straw alcohol initially retains its liquid form as it flows from the metal drum through the pipes of the test plant into a vaporizer. When the temperature reaches 350 degrees Celsius at a pressure of 20 bar, the gaseous alcohol flows into the heart of the plant, a tubular reactor. This reactor is filled with pieces of activated carbon coated with a newly developed catalyst material. These catalysts cause the gas to condense by forming bonds between individual carbon compounds. This produces gasoline, kerosene or diesel, depending on how many carbon molecules are combined. “A catalyst is often developed in the lab but may then turn out to be difficult to produce in large quantities. But we can buy the materials for this catalyst cheaply because it doesn’t consist of precious metals or rare earths. And most importantly, it remains stable over the long term,” says Menne. The biofuel packs plenty of power, as researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Chemical Technology ICT in Pfinztal have confirmed. They put standard commercial engines on a test bench to run trials with the new fuel, rate engine power and measure waste gases with precision instruments. These readings were taken at different operating levels, during cold starts, under different loads and at varying engine speeds. Tests confirm low waste gas emissions These trials found the biofuel’s energy density to be slightly higher than that of conventional fuels. That means a vehicle with this new fuel in its tank would have a slight advantage in a real race. The synthetic fuel’s waste gas emissions were also a selling point with less carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide and hydrocarbons, and a lot less soot emanating from the exhaust. This biofuel’s physical properties come close to those of fossil diesel, so it can be made to comply with prevailing standards. Venkat Aryan, a chemical engineer at Fraunhofer UMSICHT, has added up every molecule of the greenhouse gases in each process step to assess the ecological impact. A well-to-wheel analysis factors all greenhouse gases into the equation, from the extraction or harvesting of raw materials to the fuel’s conversion into kinetic energy. This includes crude oil extraction from underground wells, the cultivation of plants for biofuel and the waste gases. He found that the CO2 equivalents for synthetic diesel made from wheat straw amounted to 64.3 to 91.6 grams per megajoule, depending on the ethanol source. That is up to 32 percent less than the 94 grams for petroleum-based diesel. Shipping companies can make their own biofuel “Our fuel can be converted into gasoline, diesel or even kerosene for airplanes. But the latter is the most complicated,” says Menne. Marine diesel is a much simpler matter. It does not have to be processed in a refinery. “You could simply set up our plant in a port. Our process is so straightforward that shipping companies could produce their own diesel. Then the age of the big stinkers would soon be over,” says Menne. The technology is ready to go to market. While the synthetic diesel is still more expensive than diesel made of petroleum, Menne is confident that this could soon change. As the new legislation takes effect, fossil fuels will no longer be as cheap to produce. Some videos Bioplastics | How plastics become sustainable This is how a circular economy for plastics works CO2 reduction in the steel and chemical industries Recommended Book Resilience Thinking: Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World By (author) Brian Walker,(author) David Salt, Foreword by Walter V. Reid Increasingly, cracks are appearing in the capacity of communities, ecosystems, and landscapes to provide the goods and services that sustain our planet’s well-being. The response from most quarters has been for “more of the same” that created the situation in the first place: more control, more intensification, and greater efficiency. “Resilience thinking” offers a different way of understanding the world and a new approach to managing resources. It embraces human and natural systems as complex entities continually adapting through cycles of change and seeks to understand the qualities of a system that must be maintained or enhanced in order to achieve sustainability. It explains why greater efficiency by itself cannot solve resource problems and offers a constructive alternative that opens up options rather than closing them down. In “Resilience Thinking”, scientist Brian Walker and science writer David Salt present an accessible introduction to the emerging paradigm of resilience. The book arose out of appeals from colleagues in science and industry for a plainly written account of what resilience is all about and how a resilience approach differs from current practices. Rather than complicated theory, the book offers a conceptual overview along with five case studies of resilience thinking in the real world. It is an engaging and important work for anyone interested in managing risk in a complex world. Electric Oil Tankers & Batteries in EVERYTHING by Fully Charged Robert Llewellyn is all alone in a field or to be more professional, the field studio. Where he talks about the latest news about Electric Oil Tankers – yes we feel the irony too. What are they used for and where? Robert also talks about bidirectional charging in Teslas, the wiring is there so it seems, so can we use our Model 3’s to live on in our dwellings?Glass Batteries might be the key to getting renewable energy sources in everything. Oat Milk by EV? Yes, one of the biggest oat milk providers is determined to transport their produce with EVs.Finally, are car dealerships finally realising the power of EV car sales? Climate Change Success Story: Farming for Conservation – The Burren Programme The Burren Programme has developed over a number of years — way back since the 1990s in fact — and evolved through various forms during this time. The success of the programme is built on the input of a lot of people and organisations over a long time, and required a great deal of patience, commitment and mutual respect on the part of all those involved as they pursued a shared vision for the future of the Burren and its people. Identifying the issues The first seeds of the programme were sown in the late 1990s when local farmers, in conjunction with Teagasc, University College Dublin and the National Parks and Wildlife Service, came together to agree on a research project into The Impact of Agricultural Practices on the Natural Heritage of the Burren. This PhD research project was later published by Teagasc in book form as Farming and the Burren (Dunford, 2001). It highlighted the important role that farming plays in supporting the rich biodiversity and cultural heritage of the Burren, and also the worrying breakdown in traditional farming systems and the habitats dependent on them. Testing solutions The original partners — NPWS, Teagasc and Burren IFA — came together again in 2004 to secure funding from the EU LIFE fund to try to address some of the problems identified in the initial research project, and to develop ‘A blueprint for the sustainable agricultural management of the Burren’. This ‘BurrenLIFE project’ (2005–2010) was the first major farming for conservation project in Ireland and one of the very few EU projects which placed farmers at the centre of the conservation agenda. Working on 20 Burren farms (c.2,500ha) over a number of years, the Burren LIFE project successfully developed a tested, costed blueprint for the Burren and paved the way for the roll-out of a new programme to tackle the most pressing issues impacting on the region. Implementing solutions Arising from the success of the BurrenLIFE project, the Burren Farming for Conservation Programme (BFCP) was launched in 2010 by its funders, the Dept. of Agriculture, Food and the Marine and the NPWS of the Dept. of Arts Heritage and the Gaeltacht. The BFCP ran from 2010 to 2015. It worked with 160 farmers on 15,000ha of prime Burren habitat. It built directly on the lessons learned during BurrenLIFE and worked in a very creative way to support and incentivise farmers to maintain and enhance the habitats of the Burren, effectively tackling many of the issues identified in the original research project over a decade previously. The Burren Programme, started in 2016 with 200 farmers, and has now grown to 328 farmers, is a natural progression of the BFCP and will continue to work closely with farmers, advisors and the EU, DAFM and NPWS to implement solutions to help manage and protect the Burren. Futurist Portrait: Andy Lowe Prof Andy Lowe, food futurist, is a British-Australian scientist and expert in plants and trees, particularly the management of genetic, biological and ecosystem resources. He has discovered lost forests, championed to eliminate illegally logged timber in global supply chains, served the United Nation’s Office of Drugs and Crime and is a lead author of the Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services – Land Degradation and Restoration report. He has helped secure a quarter of a billion dollars worth of research funding in his field and is an experienced and respected executive leader, board member, as well as mid-career mentor. Andy has been the Scientist in Residence at The Australian Financial Review since August 2018. Andy is inaugural Director of Agrifood and Wine at the University of Adelaide serving as the external face for food industry and government sector partnerships across Australia, and the world. “If you’re passionate about the journey of food, biological resources, sustainability and innovation, then you’ve come to the right place! Prof Andy Lowe tackles questions about how the food we eat is grown, consumed, protected, and even wasted.” Andy has a new podcast Food Futurists with season one boasting interviews with the likes of Howard Yana-Shapiro of Mars Inc, and Marco Gualtieri of the biggest global food summit around, Seeds&Chips. Andy: “I’ve been fortunate enough to be appointed as Director of Food Innovation at the University of Adelaide to help grow the research and teaching across the food sector. The University has extraordinary breadth and depth of research and teaching capability, with over 250 academic staff working on food-related areas. Its been a real pleasure working with this group.” printable version

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Club of Amsterdam Journal, June 2020, Issue 226

Content Rewilding: lessons from the medieval Baltic crusades by Aleks Pluskowski, Alex Brown and Rowena Banerjea Digital Fabrication House The Future Now ShowThe Corona Challenge with Elisabet Sahtouris Piet Oudolf – the “emotion” of nature News about the Future: Carculator / Google drone delivery service Reimagining Life In The Cloud by Frank Spencer Recommended Book: Seeing Through the World: Jean Gebser and Integral Consciousness by Jeremy Johnson Green Hydrogen : Can Australia lead the world? Climate Change Success Story: ITER – Unlimited Energy Futurist Portrait: Ramez Naam Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal. The Future Now Show about : The Corona Challenge with Elisabet Sahtouris Have you noticed how well our Earth is doing with all us humans locked up? Can it be that this terrible time of human suffering is also a golden opportunity for human creativity in redesigning our way of life? Are the cleared skies a call to our cleared 2020 vision of a kinder, healthier, more peaceful and cooperative future? Dr. Elisabet Sahtouris is a leading edge evolution biologist, futurist, speaker and author known around the world for helping us lift our spirits to navigate through a Perfect Storm of Crises into a brighter future. Elisabet’s latest book is Gaia’s Dance: The Story of Earth & Us. Felix B BoppFounder & Chairman, Club of AmsterdamUniversal Peace Ambassador Rewilding: lessons from the medieval Baltic crusades By Aleks Pluskowski, University of Reading; Alex Brown, University of Reading, and Rowena Banerjea, University of Reading The Forest of Bialowieza, which straddles the border of Poland and Belarus, is unique in Europe: it is incredibly ancient. Woodland has been continuously present there for some 12,000 years. With the protection of 6059 hectares from human disturbance within the Polish national park, as well as the return of its iconic European bison herds from the brink of extinction, the forest is widely regarded as a model for restoring biodiversity or “rewilding”, which areas across Europe are trying to emulate. Human memories are remarkably short – often only a generation or so. What we remember as “natural” landscape is often what we remember experiencing as a child. This makes conservation and landscape management particularly subject to “shifting baseline syndrome” – a psychological phenomenon which describes how each new generation accepts as natural or normal the situation in which it was raised. This means that significant time depth is rarely considered in future planning. But understanding environmental change, and planning for the future impact of our species, must include a long-term perspective. There are ways around this. Archaeologists such as ourselves are uniquely placed to understand how fluctuations in human activity can affect the environment over much longer time periods. It is well known, for example, that our species’ mastery of farming enabled our populations to grow, with resulting deforestation and loss of biodiversity. This can be mapped through pollen coring, and the study of archaeological plant and animal remains. These techniques have become more precise in our lifetime, especially with advances in radiocarbon dating. The reverse process can also be charted. Scanning of the rainforest in northern Guatemala indicated that entire Mayan cities and fields were recolonised by the jungle after being abandoned, along with large swaths of the Amazon Basin. And, in Europe, the Forest of Bialowieza simulates the type of unplanned rewilding that took place just to its north over seven centuries ago as a result of the Baltic Crusades against pagan native populations. We used archaeological techniques to examine the long-term environmental impact of prolonged warfare and regime change as a result of these crusades, in order to better understand humanity’s longer-term effects on the environment. Regime change Previous knowledge of the ecological impact of regime change at this formative time was based on scattered and highly localised sources. Our project brought together the largest and most diverse dataset ever compiled for the historical period, drawing on archaeological, environmental and written sources, and comparing it across multiple countries. From the end of the 12th century, the pagan tribal societies of the eastern Baltic (today Estonia, Latvia, western Lithuania, north-east Poland and the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast), became the targets of relentless crusades from the West. The conquered tribal territories were reorganised as Catholic polities called Livonia and Prussia and the native aristocracy was replaced by a theocracy, dominated by the Teutonic Order. They built impressive castles, the largest of which were effectively fortified monasteries. The sustainability of the new regime depended on the exploitation of natural resources, particularly for food, fuel and building materials. To this end, the theocracy encouraged Catholic migrants from neighbouring German and Polish regions to settle the conquered territories. Modern warfare has largely had a detrimental effect on wildlife, but the Baltic Crusades resulted in depopulated frontiers with Lithuania, which remained at war with the Teutonic Order for more than a century. Here we found the pollen record showed a drop in human activity and reforestation. This became known as the “Great Wilderness”. Fragments are still visible today, particularly in north-eastern Poland. Written sources and animal bones recovered from frontier castles indicate diverse wildlife: it is here that the last wild European aurochs and bison took refuge. Noticeable human impact on vegetation in the Great Wilderness largely dates from the 17th century. Migration But if rewilding occurred on the frontier, the opposite trend occurred in the political heartlands of the new regime. After the crusades, the steady influx of migrants into newly built towns in Livonia and Prussia coincided with a noticeable expansion in cultivation. In Prussia, this can be tracked in the pollen profiles across the region over time as later waves of migrants reached the frontier. In Livonia, where migrants were largely confined to towns and castles, the native population increased and established new settlements and fields. In both regions, the rural population supplied the growing towns with grain and meat, evident from the combination of archaeological animal and plant remains recovered from excavations. But pollen data, combined with a reexamination of the written sources, indicates that large tracts of woodland remained in populated areas, deliberately preserved as sources of timber, game and beeswax. In the centuries preceding the Baltic Crusades, we can see there was already a noticeable human impact on the environment, coinciding with the rise of the Polish state in the 10th century and the emergence of a powerful native aristocracy across the eastern Baltic, ruling from strongholds. Populations grew, forests were cleared and replaced with cultivated fields. The crusades halted this impact in some areas, and accelerated it in others – and, despite the rewilding of the frontier, continued the general trend in decreasing biodiversity. Wildness today Today’s substantial challenges for conservation are compounded by governments’ tendency to plan on a short-term basis. But in some places land is being left to rewild. Much of this has been unplanned, such as in the exclusion zone around Chernobyl, where wildlife has thrived in the 34 years of dramatically reduced human activity following the explosion, despite radioactive contamination of the soil and ground water. Xopc/Wikimedia CommonsCC BY-SA There are also increasing calls for tracts of land to be set aside in a more planned effort to rewild. This is fantastic. But it is essential that planned increases in biodiversity include a much longer-term perspective of the varied impact of our species on the environment, drawing on and integrating the varied records of the past.  Digital Fabrication House DFAB HOUSEis a collaborative demonstrator of the Swiss National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) Digital Fabrication on the NEST building of Empa and Eawag. As part of the full-featured building project, researchers from eight ETH Zurich professorships have come together with industry experts and planning professionals in a unique way to explore and test how digital fabrication can change the way we design and build. Digitalization has also become a part of architecture. In Zurich, architects, robotics experts, materials scientists, statisticians and sustainability specialists joined forces to develop new construction technologies. 360°-story DFAB House The Future Now Show Shape the future now, where near-future impact counts and visions and strategies for preferred futures start. – Club of Amsterdam Do we rise above global challenges? Or do we succumb to them? The Future Now Show explores how we can shape our future now – where near-future impact counts. We showcase strategies and solutions that create futures that work. Every month we roam through current events, discoveries, and challenges – sparking discussion about the connection between today and the futures we’re making – and what we need, from strategy to vision – to make the best ones. June 2020 The Corona ChallengewithElisabet Sahtouris The Future Now ShowCreditsDr. Elisabet Sahtouris, Holder of the Elisabet Sahtouris Chair in Living Economies at World Business Academy, Honolulu, Hawaiichaminade.edu/academics/business/business-facultywww.sahtouris.com Piet Oudolf – the “emotion” of nature Lurie Garden in Millennium Park, Chicago, Illinois, USA Piet Oudolfis an influential Dutch garden designer, plant nursery man and author. He is a leading figure of the “New Perennial” movement — his designs and plant compositions using bold drifts of herbaceous perennials and grasses which are chosen at least as much for their structure as for their flower colour. Design philosophyWorking primarily with perennial plant varieties, Oudolf practices a naturalistic approach to gardening. Taking a cue from architectural design, Oudolf prioritizes the seasonal life cycle of a plant over decorative considerations like flower or colour. He focuses primarily on structural characteristics, such as leaf or seed pod shape, present before and after a plant has flowered. He explains: “A garden is exciting for me when it looks good through the year, not just at one particular time. I want to go outside and for it to be interesting in all weather, in early spring and late autumn.” The stability of perennials after planting are key to Oudolf’s designs, especially the use of long-lived clump-forming species. The result are gardens that persist in their planned state years after being planted with little deviation from Oudolf’s hand drawn maps. Oudolf’s overall approach to planting has evolved since the 1980s when he and his wife Anja opened their nursery, at Hummelo, in Gelderland. His early work with perennials consisted of block-type groupings based on structure and texture. More recently Oudolf’s gardens has experimented with a variety of approaches, which, broadly speaking, are more naturalistic, often using blends of species. The change in style has been described as a shift from a painter’s perspective to one informed by ecology. It was first introduced into Oudolf’s public work in 2004 as part of the Lurie Garden in Chicago. The approach can be seen in the New York High Line project. – Wikipedia How landscape designer Piet Oudolf captures nature’s ‘emotion’ News about the Future Carculator is an open-source, comprehensive and transparent life cycle assessment tool for passenger cars. It allows for an economic and environmental evaluation of different types of cars under several driving and energy supply scenarios. Results partly rely on the background inventory data of ecoinvent v3.6, and the implementation of impact assessment methods therein. Google drone delivery service After being given the go-ahead to run a drone delivery service in Australia, Google has received approval from the Federal Aviation Administration to launch the service in the US too. The company, or rather its sister-firm Wing, has been granted the same certifications as smaller airlines to operate in the country. This will result in its first drone delivery routes being opened in rural communities in Virginia in the next few months. “It’s an exciting moment for us to have earned the FAA’s approval to actually run a business with our technology,” said Wing’s CEO James Ryan Burgess, in an interview with Bloomberg. Reimagining Life In The Cloud By Frank SpencerGlobal Futurist. Founder @ Kedge & The Futures School Many are wondering what is in store for humanity after The Great Pause. Beyond asking “When?” Or “How?”, a better question may be, “Where will our futures take place?” Only a few short years after the Internet humbly changed the world as we knew it in the late 1980s and early 1990s, researchers and social scientists were already speculating about the vast potential that could emerge from our newfound web of connectivity. In an article entitled “Rules For Radicals: Settling the Cyber Frontier,” Riel Miller, Head of Foresight and Futures Literacy at UNESCO, explored the ways in which the Internet might both alter and evolve how we define life as a species: Universal ‘cyber-citizenship’ or a means for affirming and controlling one’s existence — on-line identity, avatars and reputation — in the virtual worlds made accessible by the net Production systems without offices, factories and commuting Property right laws and payment systems that enable new business models based on tracked ‘credit for mash-ups’ and disintermediated ‘peer-to-peer’ transactions A universal ‘commons’ (open access and semantic web) for all human knowledge Ways of living that reduce the physical weight of human existence. (1) Approximately 30 years later — and despite the fact that the Internet has become an integral part of our daily lives — we are still no closer to making this list of digital attributes a common reality for the majority of humanity. We have certainly seen e-commerce and social media alter the global zeitgeist, but these practices have arguably had more negative than positive impacts on the health of governance, economics and social cohesion. Instead of controlling our online identity, many people feel that their personal data has been misused by large corporations and political parties; virtual worlds as landscapes for transformative access to education and innovation are seen as playgrounds for those on the fringe; and, the transfer of physical activities into web-based platforms as a means to reducing our carbon footprint is still an afterthought. It’s not as if many amazing individuals and groups haven’t been working on these ideas (and many more) over the past 30 years. Rather, we have yet to see the great need to shift our paradigms concerning the intentional development of virtual environments for humanity. Our long-standing (but also obsolete) system of short-term thinking and aversion to complex realities has created a mass deficit of imagination, and we have subsequently ignored the need to continually evolve humanity into these emerging landscapes. We’ve trained and educated almost no one to inhabit new worlds of thought and activity, and our collective potential still lies dormant — or worse yet, it is rapidly deteriorating. As Miller noted in a recent article, “Why do we think that the best strategy for our survival and well-being is to build heavy, imposing, rigid fortresses when we live in a swirling cloud?” (2), we have continued to stand by as the Internet has been hijacked by political and economic interests from an obsolete era, and very little has changed in the population at-large. And then came COVID-19. Suddenly, everyone has been thrust into the virtual world with little to no preparation or training. Teachers and parents are expected to educate our children online when the dynamics of the digital landscape are very different than the old-world systems with which we are familiar; the digital divide and lack of access to the Internet for large swaths of the population have thrown chaos into the face of our inequitable and non-resilient systems; organizations have scrambled to employ virtual platforms to save work as we know it; and, individuals have sought to leverage existing social media, e-commerce and collaboration websites to expand their presence into an exploding gig economy to take advantage of low-hanging fruit or stay afloat during the crisis. Coupled with a mounting list of civilizational threats such as climate change, growing inequality and a distrust of intellectualism, this pandemic is acting as an accelerant to reimagining life inside of Miller’s “swirling cloud”, but the great migration will require a much more purposeful, diligent and concerted effort if we are to see those clouds produce the much needed rain that can enrich the fertile ground of the web. While speaking at The Long Now Foundation on the topic of “Six Easy Steps To Avert the Collapse of Civilization,” famed neuroscientist and bestselling author David Eagleman posited that “We have accidentally invented a technology which I think obviates many of the threats that have caused previous civilizations to collapse… I think we are at a watershed moment in our history, and this may just be the thing that saves our future.” (3) Among the many civilization-saving (as well as life-altering) capabilities that he assigned to the Internet, several ideas resound with unavoidable clarity: Ancient civilizations would often physically congregate during viral epidemics to demonstrate their compassion, solidarity and fortitude. Our relatively nascent science around viruses has revealed that this is the opposite of what we should do, but the need for social distancing and isolation while also connecting for civilizational advancement can be accomplished through the virtual nature of the Internet in practices such as telepresencing for work and social development, telemedicine for public healthcare, and digital tracking for optimal delivery of resources. Many inventions and discoveries were only echoes of well-established information from an earlier time. Sadly, the amnesia of history that is often a result of lost knowledge from conquered, colonized or collapsed civilizations has led to countless incidences of human suffering. (4) Unique throughout history, the Internet now allows us to discover something once, latch onto that idea, distribute it across the entire planet for others to learn from and expand upon, and ultimately — as well as quickly — create a redundancy that is immune to fires, floods and fevers. The dissemination of news needed by individuals and groups for both survival and innovation has traditionally been impeded by time, distance, topic discrimination and non-local media bias, but the web allows for a decentralization of “citizen journalists” who can spread relevant information across neighborhoods, regions and the globe in an on-demand and just-in-time network. The net allows us to generate an immediate response in the face of a crisis, both through digital communication and physical sensors that act as a planet-to-web interface. As Eagleman noted, “With advanced information networks, humans grow closer to omniscience and omnipresence.” Throughout history, tyranny has hobbled cultural progress. The Internet reinforces local information and nested feedback loops which “democratizes the flow of information by giving open access to everybody,” thus keeping governmental censorship and deception in check. More recently, we have seen despotic leaders use the Internet to divide populations or broadcast messages of fear and nationalism, but this only reinforces the fact that we must dive headlong into a global effort to create digital awareness, access and participatory citizenship as a means to frame the web for human development. (5) Crowdsourcing for increased innovation and transdisciplinary discovery has been touted for decades, but we have barely scratched the surface on the potential for open-sourced problem solving and opportunity emergence that is offered through a digital world. Research shows us that the development of human capital depends on open access to education, and this in turn results in greater economic ideation, invention and equity. Such widespread access and civilizational security depends on the maturation of the Internet and the promotion of a digital citizenry, opening the gates to education in a way that was never before possible. When society exceeds its carrying capacity in terms of energy, fighting ensues over limited resources. The web solves this problem by converting practices such as information storage or shopping for goods to the digital world, thus eliminating the need for paper trails, transportation redundancy and a myriad of other energy wasting activities. (6) Indeed, Eagleman’s talk is timely — except it’s not. Interestingly, he gave this talk in 2010 — a full decade before the presently unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. The idea of creating a digital evolutionary platform that holds the potential to positively transform the human experience and aid in ecologically regenerative outcomes is not an idea whose time has come — it’s an idea that is long overdue. In a 2017 paper entitled “The Body, Technology and Translation: Mapping the Complexity of Online Embodiment,” Seweryn Rudnicki addressed this unfolding exploration of the virtual human experience where body, identity, technology, reality and social constructs all intertwine. Speaking directly to our failure to keep pace with the ever-growing potential of a virtual world, he noted that, “Since the first decade of the 21st century, the Internet has become much more mobile, accessed in multiple channels, with numerous devices and used across a number of daily activities. It has also ceased to be commonly understood only as the World Wide Web accessible in browsers, becoming rather an infrastructure for a number of devices (from smartphones to cars) offering a vast number of services. For the sociological interest in the body, it is important that these changes have enabled new forms of interaction between physical bodies and Internet-related technologies, which can now be used not only to represent the body in specific virtual environments in the form of a picture, avatar or description, but also to offer a possibility to track, livestream and record a number of bodily parameters and activities. Yet the social theory of the body seems to be somewhat reluctant to respond to the challenges posed by the increasingly digitally saturated world.” (7) Today, this infrastructure offers us a number of exciting ways for humanity to accelerate our great migration to the digital cloud: Simulate “Mirror Cities” for testing every aspect of physical development or social interaction in digital spaces. Virtual landscapes such as Magicverse, Decentraland and Fortnight that are redefining our traditional models of education, economic development, cultural sharing and entertainment. A “People Cloud” where passion and purpose can override “work as life” models, allowing individuals and groups to inhabit multiple projects simultaneously, and thereby increasing innovations and ideation for all of humanity. Digital Identities/ and Digital Citizenship that opens up new avenues to global connectivity, overcomes problems such as immigration and basic services for humanity, and dissolves the problems created by natural or national borders.Multiple Avatar Personalities that empower each of us to truly explore a Post-Human world. These ideas only scratch the surface of the possibilities that exist in a more intentionally designed and inhabited digital world, and ideas of how to best utilize life in the cloud — ideas that hold the potential to solve many of our existing wicked problems — are exponentially multiplying by the day. However, purposefully fostering a great human migration to the web may no longer be the plot of some Sci Fi movie, and the Internet has certainly grown beyond being an external technology that can be viewed as a luxury. Rather, our present time has given us the opportunity to create new life-giving metaphors for this virtual world, and we would be wise to foster a more deliberate transition to a blended and generative digital reality. References Riel Miller: https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/read/43089928/rules-for-radicals-settling-the-cyber-frontier-riel-miller http://bayoakomolafe.net/project/out-of-the-ashes/ http://longnow.org/seminars/02010/apr/01/six-easy-steps-avert-collapse-civilization/ (ex. The forgotten practice of inoculations being practiced in 10th Century China that wasn’t re-discovered in Europe until after countless plagues, or the destruction of vast stores of invaluable manuscripts housed in The Great Library of Alexandria) (ex. Using cell phone data to report local vote tampering practices in real-time, or breaking through the firewall of fortress governments to deliver information to citizens cut off from the rest of the physical world) (Yes, a more immersive digital world with a greater full-time population would also require more energy, but the solution would lie in the development of green energy — something that needs to happen regardless.) https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.5153/sro.4322 Frank SpencerGlobal Futurist. Founder @ Kedge & The Futures School — Global Foresight, Innovation & Strategic Design. www.kedgefutures.com www.thefuturesschool.com Recommended Book Seeing Through the World: Jean Gebser and Integral Consciousness by Jeremy Johnson Seeing Through the World introduces the reader to the work of German-Swiss philosopher, poet, and intellectual mystic Jean Gebser (1905-1973). Writing in the midcentury during a period of intense cultural transformation and crisis in Europe, Gebser intuited a series of mutational leaps in the history of human consciousness, the latest of which emerging was the “integral” structure, marked by the presence of time-freedom. Gebser’s insights on the phenomenology of human consciousness has brought profound intellectual depth and spiritual transmission to the field of integral philosophy and consciousness studies, influencing the works of American historians such as William Irwin Thompson and the philosopher Ken Wilber. Further syncretic corroboration links Gebser’s integral age to those of the Indian revolutionary and yogi Sri Aurobindo’s “integral yoga” and Pierre Teilhard de Chardin’s evolutionary mysticism. Arguably, Gebser’s structures of consciousness are as significant an ontological insight as C. G. Jung’s “reality of the psyche.” Yet, until now, very little secondary literature has been available in the English-speaking world. Jeremy Johnson, the current president of the International Jean Gebser Society who has spent the last decade as an integral scholar and researcher, produces this introductory volume on the life and writings of Jean Gebser. Part companion piece to Gebser’s magnum opus, The Ever-Present Origin, part inspired treatise on an integral futurism, Jeremy guides the reader through the structures of consciousness and incepts integral scholarship as a divination that scries the age of ecological collapse and the ontological recodings of the Anthropocene. It is the first volume in the NuraLogicals series, produced in partnership with Nura Learning. Green Hydrogen : Can Australia lead the world? By Just Have a ThinkGreen hydrogen, or renewable hydrogen, is now a very real commercial prospect thanks to the plummeting prices of wind and solar power. Australia’s vast land mass, almost constant sun and wind, and access to an array of minerals and resources really does make it the ideal location for large scale hydrogen production powered by renewable technologies. So can Australia move quickly enough to seize this opportunity? Climate Change Success Story: ITER – Unlimited Energy Staff photo, November 2019 When the 2017 staff photo was taken (in this very spot), the circular bioshield was still visible above the walls of the Tokamak Complex. Two years later, the bioshield is hidden in its concrete vault and the last elements of the roof structure are set to be posed. Against this spectacular backdrop, a portion of the 925 people currently employed as staff of the ITER Organization came out on 29 November 2019 for the traditional group photo. Photo: ITER Organization/Gérard Lesenechal – 29 November 2019 Fusion, the nuclear reaction that powers the Sun and the stars, is a potential source of safe, non-carbon emitting and virtually limitless energy. Harnessing fusion’s power is the goal of ITER, which has been designed as the key experimental step between today’s fusion research machines and tomorrow’s fusion power plants. What is ITER? ITER (“The Way” in Latin) is one of the most ambitious energy projects in the world today. In southern France, 35 nations are collaborating to build the world’s largest tokamak, a magnetic fusion device that has been designed to prove the feasibility of fusion as a large-scale and carbon-free source of energy based on the same principle that powers our Sun and stars. The experimental campaign that will be carried out at ITER is crucial to advancing fusion science and preparing the way for the fusion power plants of tomorrow. ITER will be the first fusion device to produce net energy. ITER will be the first fusion device to maintain fusion for long periods of time. And ITER will be the first fusion device to test the integrated technologies, materials, and physics regimes necessary for the commercial production of fusion-based electricity. Thousands of engineers and scientists have contributed to the design of ITER since the idea for an international joint experiment in fusion was first launched in 1985. The ITER Members — China, the European Union, India, Japan, Korea, Russia and the United States — are now engaged in a 35-year collaboration to build and operate the ITER experimental device, and together bring fusion to the point where a demonstration fusion reactor can be designed. We invite you to explore the ITER website for more information on the science of ITER, the ITER international collaboration and the large-scale building project that is underway in Saint Paul-lez-Durance, southern France. *Update 31 January 2020: The United Kingdom has formally withdrawn from the European Union and Euratom but has expressed strong interest in continuing to participate in the ITER Project. The terms of this new relationship will be negotiated during the transition period. Until a new arrangement is reached, the ITER Council has agreed that existing contracts, both with personnel and suppliers, will be honoured. ITER Tokamak and plant systems, 2016 What will ITER do?The amount of fusion energy a tokamak is capable of producing is a direct result of the number of fusion reactions taking place in its core. Scientists know that the larger the vessel, the larger the volume of the plasma … and therefore the greater the potential for fusion energy. With ten times the plasma volume of the largest machine operating today, the ITER Tokamak will be a unique experimental tool, capable of longer plasmas and better confinement. The machine has been designed specifically to: 1) Produce 500 MW of fusion powerThe world record for fusion power is held by the European tokamak JET. In 1997, JET produced 16 MW of fusion power from a total input heating power of 24 MW (Q=0.67). ITER is designed to produce a ten-fold return on energy (Q=10), or 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of input heating power. ITER will not capture the energy it produces as electricity, but — as first of all fusion experiments in history to produce net energy gain — it will prepare the way for the machine that can. 2) Demonstrate the integrated operation of technologies for a fusion power plantITER will bridge the gap between today’s smaller-scale experimental fusion devices and the demonstration fusion power plants of the future. Scientists will be able to study plasmas under conditions similar to those expected in a future power plant and test technologies such as heating, control, diagnostics, cryogenics and remote maintenance. 3) Achieve a deuterium-tritium plasma in which the reaction is sustained through internal heatingFusion research today is at the threshold of exploring a “burning plasma” — one in which the heat from the fusion reaction is confined within the plasma efficiently enough for the reaction to be sustained for a long duration. Scientists are confident that the plasmas in ITER will not only produce much more fusion energy, but will remain stable for longer periods of time. 4) Test tritium breedingOne of the missions for the later stages of ITER operation is to demonstrate the feasibility of producing tritium within the vacuum vessel. The world supply of tritium (used with deuterium to fuel the fusion reaction) is not sufficient to cover the needs of future power plants. ITER will provide a unique opportunity to test mockup in-vessel tritium breeding blankets in a real fusion environment. 5) Demonstrate the safety characteristics of a fusion deviceITER achieved an important landmark in fusion history when, in 2012, the ITER Organization was licensed as a nuclear operator in France based on the rigorous and impartial examination of its safety files. One of the primary goals of ITER operation is to demonstrate the control of the plasma and the fusion reactions with negligible consequences to the environment. Fusion in 30 years? ITER update [2020] Nuclear Fusion: Revolutionary new breakthrough.By Just Have a Think Nuclear Fusion. That perennial promise of perpetual power. If it ever does actually come into reality then the energy needs of the human species will be met for ever with very small, very cheap, zero carbon emission power plants in towns and cities all over the world. But when will it arrive? Now an Australian company think they have the answer. Futurist Portrait: Ramez Naam Ramez Naamis a computer scientist; public speaker on energy, innovation, and disruption, cleantech angel investor; award-winning author of 5 books; and the co-Chair for Energy and Environment at Singularity University. “I was born in Cairo, Egypt, and came to the US at the age of 3. In my career, I first worked at Microsoft, working early versions of Microsoft Outlook, Internet Explorer, and the Bing search engine. Simultaneously, I founded and ran Apex NanoTechnologies, the world’s first company devoted entirely to software tools to accelerate molecular design. I’ve written five books. Nexus, Crux, and Apex (near future science fiction), The Infinite Resource: The Power of Ideas on a Finite Planet (non-fiction), and More Than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement (non-fiction). Now I focus my time on climate and energy, as a frequent public speaker on the inevitability and increasing price advantage of clean energy; and as an investor in and advisor to clean energy, mobility, and climate-related startups around the world. In my personal life, I’ve climbed mountains, descended into icy crevasses, chased sharks through their native domain,backpacked through remote corners of China, and ridden my bicycle down hundreds of miles of the Vietnam coast.” Quotes “Just as remarkably, and relevant for considering the future cost of solar, the decline of solar prices over the past decade has been faster than almost any credible forecast. Let’s add forecasts made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their 2010 World Energy Outlook, along with the forecast I made in 2011 at Scientific American. When we do, using dashed lines for the forecasts, we see that actual solar prices are well below those expected by the world’s most well-known energy analyst and forecaster (the IEA), and even below the most optimistic projections put forward a decade ago (mine).” Exponential Energy | Ramez Naam | SingularityU Portugal Summit Cascais printable version

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, January 2007, Issue 80

Content The Future Evolution of ConsciousnessInternational LABsNews about the future of ConsciousnessClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureEvent about the future of ConsciousnessRecommended BookArchitecture for ChildrenWorld Energy Technology Outlook – 2050AgendaClub of Amsterdam Open Business Club Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.“Consciousness is widely viewed as the last frontier of science. Modern science may have split the atom and solved the mystery of life, but it has yet to explain the source of conscious feelings. Eminent thinkers from many areas of science are turning to this problem, and a wide range of theories are currently on offer. Yet sceptics doubt whether consciousness can be tamed by conventional scientific techniques, and others whether its mysteries can be understood at all.” – 21st Century Join our discussion about   the future of Consciousness on January 25 The Future Evolution of Consciousness If the evolutionary advantage of consciousness is that it “improves the capacity to develop novel adaptive responses”, then further improvements should continue to offer an advantage. One of the specific improvements needed, according to the paper, is the ability to prevent goals supported by the “hedonic system” from controlling sequences of thoughts and behavior. Interestingly, the author concludes that this is exactly what organized religion has been trying to do for thousands of years. This could mean that beings (humans or robots) with consciousness augmented by religion have an evolutionary advantage. Like Daniel Dennett, Stewart believes scientific study of religion should be a priority of scientists. The Future Evolution of ConsciousnessBy John Stewart ABSTRACT What potential exists for improvements in the functioning of consciousness? The paper addresses this issue using global workspace theory. According to this model, the prime function of consciousness is to develop novel adaptive responses. Consciousness does this by putting together new combinations of knowledge, skills and other disparate resources that are recruited from throughout the brain. The paper’s search for potential improvements in the functioning of consciousness draws on studies of the shift during human development from the use of implicit knowledge to the use of explicit (declarative) knowledge. These studies show that the ability of consciousness to adapt a particular domain improves significantly as the transition to the use of declarative knowledge occurs in that domain. However, this potential for consciousness to enhance adaptability has not yet been realised to any extent in relation to consciousness itself. The paper assesses the potential for adaptability to be improved by the conscious adaptation of keyprocesses that constitute consciousness. A number of sources (including the practices of religious and contemplative traditions) are drawn on to investigate how this potential might be realised. 1. INTRODUCTION An improved capacity to develop novel adaptive responses has often been given as the reason why evolution favoured the emergence of consciousness. Consciousness is increasingly seen as a process that confers evolutionary advantage by enhancing the ability of an organism to discover new and better behavioural adaptations (Baars 1988; Dennett 1991; Metzinger 2003 and DeHaene and Naccache 2001). Global Workplace (GW) theory attributes this capacity of consciousness to its ability to assemble novel combinations of knowledge, skills and other resources for the development of new adaptive responses (Baars 1983, 1988 and 1997). This enables consciousness to, for example, recruit the resources needed to construct composite mental representations of alternative responses and their consequences, enabling the most adaptive response to be identified. This paper explores the extent to which the adaptability conferred by consciousness can be enhanced in humans. In particular, it seeks to identify the potential for changes in the functioning of consciousness to improve its ability to discover better behavioural adaptations. Addressing this issue has been greatly assisted by the recent development of information processing theories of the functioning of consciousness. An understanding of consciousness from an information processing perspective enables us to assess its potential for further improvement. We can judge how well consciousness performs its functions, and whether changes in the processes that constitute consciousness could overcome any limitations and enhance its ability to adapt behaviour effectively. This paper uses the information processing framework embodied in GW theory to assess the potential for improvement in consciousness. Of the competing information processing accounts of consciousness, it currently attracts the widest support (Baars 2002; DeHaene and Naccache 2001; Kanwisher 2001; and Dennett 2001). The paper focuses on those improvements that can emerge through the processes of cultural evolution, rather than through genetic change. It therefore considers only changes that can be learnt and can be transmitted culturally. We begin in Section 2 by outlining and developing the main features of Baars’ GW theory that are relevant to our task. This analysis of GW theory is drawn on in Section 3 to identify how the functioning of conscious processes might be improved to enhance the adaptability and evolvability of humans. The search for potential improvements is aided by developmental research that identifies how adaptability is significantly enhanced in other domains when declarative knowledge is used to assist adaptation. In section 4 we use GW theory and other sources to begin to identify practices and experiences that could enable humans to acquire skills and capacities that would realise the potential to improve the functioning of consciousness. […] 4. CONCLUSION Religious and contemplative traditions have accumulated a substantial body of declarative and procedural knowledge about how to modify the functioning of consciousness. This knowledge has the potential to significantly increase human adaptability and evolvability. By enabling conscious processes to be modified, it opens the way for declarative modelling to optimise the functioning of consciousness. This would enable the full capacity of consciousness to discover new adaptations to be used to adapt and enhance consciousness itself. However, the development of these capacities would not just significantly enhance adaptability – it would also change what occupies the GW through time, and therefore what an individual is conscious of. It would change the experience of what it is to be a human being. However, the explanations and interpretations developed by the contemplative traditions to account for the practices they use and the experiences and capacities they produce are prescientific. Their theories have not been disciplined by the scientific method. In particular, they have unnecessarily introduced a plethora of theoretical entities unknown to empirical psychology and science that have little predictive value. Nor have the theories taken advantage of the powerful models and understandings embodied in standard learning theory, clinical psychology, information processing models of cognition, and other areas of cognitive neuroscience. It can be expected that these deficiencies will be corrected as the knowledge accumulated by the contemplative traditions is integrated into the framework and practice of scientific psychology. As this integration proceeds, it is likely that far more powerful models of the phenomenon and associated processes will be developed, and that these in turn will enable more effective practices and interventions to be developed. Such a re-interpretation of pre-scientific declarative and procedural knowledge in the light of the conceptual frameworks and models of other domains is an important step in the declarative transition in any domain. In particular, it enables discoveries, models and understandings from other areas to be applied to the domain in question, and vice versa. Science has been the key vehicle for this process in the most recent 400 years of human evolution. This paper is a contribution to the early stages of this interpretation and integration process for consciousness (see Walsh and Shapiro 2006 for a recent overview of progress). The integration of the discoveries of contemplative traditions with scientific psychology can be expected to greatly assist and accelerate the unfolding of this declarative transition across humanity in general. The successful accomplishment of the transition would open up adaptive possibilities of great evolutionary significance. It would, for example, provide humans with the possibility of choosing to pursue evolutionary goals directly, rather than continuing to pursue proxies for evolutionary success. It would also enable these goals to be pursued more creatively and successfully. Furthermore, as the transition extends to more aspects of consciousness, humans would increasingly be able to choose to adopt particular modes of consciousness to match the needs of different circumstances, just as we now can choose to adopt particular physical postures to match the needs of different physical tasks. You can download the full paper as a *.pdf  click here International LABs LAB on Old and New ENERGYAn immersed experience of a Do-Tank April 17 & 18, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, Spain Max. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersNathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of DundeeNuclear policies specialistSimon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder, Global WitnessEnvironmental issuesChristof van Agt, International Energy AgencySustainable energy specialistPaul Holister, Nanotechnology & Energy News about  the future of Consciousness Religion is intimately interwoven with human biology There is reason to believe that, to some degree, spirituality is hard-wired into the human nervous system. Recent experiments using thermal imaging indicate that brain activity during a “transcendent” experience is highest in the limbic system, that part of the brain which is associated with emotions and motivation, and in the connecting hypothalamus, amygdala and the hippocampus. Neurobiologists Andrew Newberg and Eugene d’Aquili have conducted research in the field of “neurotheology” using brain imaging technology ( Single Photon Emission Computed Tomography, or SPECT for short ). They suggest that “religion is intimately interwoven with human biology.” Their studies of praying Franciscan nuns and meditating Buddhist monks reveal that certain religious experiences, like meditation and prayer, are linked to increased activity and changes in the structure of the brain and nervous system. The Mystery of Consciousnessby Steven Pinker in Time Magazine […] As every student in Philosophy 101 learns, nothing can force me to believe that anyone except me is conscious. This power to deny that other people have feelings is not just an academic exercise but an all-too-common vice, as we see in the long history of human cruelty. Yet once we realize that our own consciousness is a product of our brains and that other people have brains like ours, a denial of other people’s sentience becomes ludicrous. “Hath not a Jew eyes?” asked Shylock. Today the question is more pointed: Hath not a Jew–or an Arab, or an African, or a baby, or a dog–a cerebral cortex and a thalamus? The undeniable fact that we are all made of the same neural flesh makes it impossible to deny our common capacity to suffer. […] Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog February 12:  Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices?January 8:  The Future of ConsciousnessDecember 18:  selfleadDecember 14:  On the Art of Value-Webbing News about the Future VBOX The Venue VBOX – basically a huge shipping container that can be tricked out with cool features and even cooler products – is taking the idea of pop-up retail stores to an extreme. “The VBOX enables a brand or company to follow an event they wish to align their brand with, or pop up where consumers least expect it. Tag along with a photography exhibition or set up shop temporarily at a large sporting event. Brands can even showcase items that consumers may not otherwise be able to purchase elsewhere: just fill the VBOX with one-offs or special editions and you’ll pull in consumers with the prospect that they’ll able to purchase something unique. The VBOX comes self-contained and equipped with an iMac and iPod HiFi. It’s entirely ready to go; all that needs to be done is fill it with enticing products. To date the VBOX has housed collections by some of the fashion world’s most prestigious names: RAF SIMONS (Prada Group) and limited PUMA designer co-labs by Alexander McQueen, Christy Turlington, Mihara Yasuhiro as well as CDs, magazines/books and Motorola phones.” friendspotting MIT researchers unveiled a new social networking application that will make it possible for anyone on the Institute’s 168-acre campus to locate anyone else, via their laptop. Known as iFIND, the new technology was developed by researchers in the Institute’s SENSEable City Laboratory. Carlo Ratti, director of the SENSEable City Lab, described this new form of social networking as “friendspotting”: “Imagine coming out of a class in a faraway corner of the MIT campus, and instantly knowing which friends are nearby, or being able to dynamically schedule an appointment with a faculty member based on his or her proximity to you,” he said. With almost 3,000 WiFi access points, the MIT campus is one of the most densely networked areas in the world. Such connectivity has changed the nature of social encounters on campus. Next Season Event    the future of  Consciousness Thursday, January 25, 2007Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: EnlightenNext, Oudeschans 46a, 1011 LC Amsterdam Mauk Pieper, Trainer, Coach, TeacherCultural development and the development of man as a new more conscious being have to go hand in hand.Arjan Kindermans,EnlightenNext AmsterdamTranscending and including individualism, how do you do that?George Pór , Founder, CommunityIntelligence Ltd.What Color is Your Collective Intelligence?Moderated by Homme Heida, Promedia, Member of the Club of Amsterdam Round Table Recommended Book The Sacred Depths of Natureby Ursula GoodenoughUrsula Goodenough is an internationally recognized cell biologist; she is also an accomplished amateur theologian–an unusual combination of interests in a time when science and religion are widely divided. In The Sacred Depths of Nature, she proposes what she calls a “planetary ethic” drawing on the lessons of both science and metaphysics, celebrating some of the mysteries that are central to both: “the mystery of why there is anything at all, rather than nothing,” for one, and “the mystery of why the universe seems so strange,” for another. Exploring scientifically based narratives about the creation of the universe and the origins of life, Goodenough forges a kind of religious naturalism that will not be unfamiliar to readers of New Age literature–save that her naturalism has the hard-nosed rigor of a laboratory-trained scholar behind it. Goodenough offers a crash course in the life sciences for her readers, encompassing the basics, for instance, of biochemistry in just a few paragraphs (and getting it right in the bargain), touching on Darwinian biology and population dynamics and even chaos theory to make “an epic of evolution” that has all the hallmarks of an origin myth. Faith and reason, in her view, are not mutually exclusive, and her well-written treatise makes a good argument for bridging the gap between the two. Architecture for Kids Rolling BridgeSKM Anthony HuntsPaddington BasinLondon, UK The Cardboard HouseStutchbury and Pape, working in association with the Ian Buchan Fell Housing Research Unit at University of Sydney Bubbletecture Maihara KindergartenShiga Shuhei Endo Architect InstituteMaihara-cho, Shiga World Energy Technology Outlook – 2050 By European Commission KEY MESSAGES The WETO-H2 study has developed a Reference projection of the world energy system and two variant scenarios, a carbon constraint case and a hydrogen case. These scenarios have been used to explore the options for technology and climate policies in the next half-century. All the projections to 2050 have been made with a world energy sector simulation model – the POLES model – that describes the development of the national and regional energy systems, and their interactions through international energy markets, under constraints on resources and climate policies. The development of the world energy system in the reference projection The reference projectionThe Reference projection describes a continuation of existing economic and technological trends, including short-term constraints on the development of oil and gas production and moderate climate policies for which it is assumed that Europe keeps the lead. World energy consumptionThe total energy consumption in the world is expected to increase to 22 Gtoe per year in 2050, from the current 10 Gtoe per year. Fossil fuels provide 70% of this total (coal and oil 26% each, natural gas 18%) and non-fossil sources 30%; the non-fossil share is divided almost equally between renewable and nuclear energy.Energy efficiency improvementThe size of the world economy in 2050 is four times as large as now, but world energy consumption only increases by a factor of 2.2. The significant improvement in energy efficiency arises partly from autonomous technological or structural changes in the economy, partly from energy efficiency policies and partly from the effects of much higher energy prices. North-South balance in energy consumptionEnergy demand grows strongly in the developing regions of the world, where basic energy needs are at present hardly satisfied. The consumption in these countries overtakes that of the industrialised world shortly after 2010 and accounts for two thirds of the world total in 2050. Oil and gas production profilesConventional oil production levels off after 2025 at around 100 Mbl/d. The profile forms a plateau rather than the “peak” that is much discussed today. Non-conventional oils provide the increase in total liquids, to about 125 Mbl/d in 2050. Natural gas shows a similar pattern, with a delay of almost ten years.Oil and gas pricesThe prices of oil and natural gas on the international market increase steadily, and reach 110 $/bl for oil and 100 $/boe for gas in 2050. The high prices mostly reflect the increasing resource scarcity. Electricity: the comeback of coal, the take-off of renewable sources and the revival of nuclear energyThe growth in electricity consumption keeps pace with economic growth and in 2050, total electricity production is four times greater than today. Coal returns as an important source of electricity and is increasingly converted using new advanced technologies. The price of coal is expected to reach about 110 $/ton in 2050. The rapid increase of renewable sources and nuclear energy begins after 2020 and is massive after 2030; it implies a rapid deployment of new energy technologies, from large offshore wind farms to “Generation 4” nuclear power plants. CO2 emissionsThe deployment of non-fossil energy sources to some extent compensates for the comeback of coal in terms of CO2 emissions, which increase almost proportionally to the total energy consumption. The resulting emission profile corresponds to a concentration of CO2 in the atmospheric between 900 to 1000 ppmv in 2050. This value far exceeds what is considered today as an acceptable range for stabilisation of the concentration. The European energy system in the reference projection Energy demand trendsTotal primary energy consumption in Europe increases only a little from 1.9 Gtoe / year today to 2.6 Gtoe / year in 2050. Until 2020, the primary fuel-mix is rather stable, except for a significant increase in natural gas consumption. Thereafter the development of renewable energy sources accelerates and nuclear energy revives. In 2050 non-fossil energy sources, nuclear and renewable provide 40% of the primary energy consumption, much above the present 20%. The consumption of electricity keeps pace with economic growth; the market for electricity remains dynamic because of new electricity uses, especially in the Information and Communication Technologies. CO2 emissionsThis combination of modest climate policies and new trends in electricity supply results in CO2 emissions that are almost stable up to 2030 and then decrease until 2050. At that date CO2 emissions in Europe are 10% lower than today. Electricity productionBecause of relatively strong climate policies, European electricity production is 70% decarbonised in 2050; renewable and nuclear sources provide 60% of the total generation of electricity and a quarter of thermal generation is equipped with CO2 capture and storage systems. Hydrogen productionHydrogen develops after 2030, with modest although not negligible results: it provides in 2050 the equivalent of 10% of final electricity consumption. The carbon constrained world energy system The carbon constraint caseThis scenario explores the consequences of more ambitious carbon policies that aim at a long-term stabilisation of the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere close to 500 ppmv by 2050. Early action is assumed in Annex B countries, while more time is allowed for the emerging and developing countries. A “Factor 2” reduction in EuropeIn this carbon constraint case, global emissions of CO2 are stable between 2015 and 2030 (at about 40% above the 1990 level) and decrease thereafter; however, by 2050, they are still 25% higher than in 1990. In the EU-25, emissions in 2050 are half the 1990 level; on average they fall by 10% in each decade. An accelerated development of non-fossil fuelsBy 2050, annual world energy demand is lower than in the Reference case by 3 Gtoe / year. By 2050, renewables and nuclear each provides more than 20% of the total demand; renewable sources provide 30% of electricity generation and nuclear electricity nearly 40%. Coal consumption stagnates, despite the availability of CO2 capture and storage technologies. By 2050, the cumulative amount of CO2 stored form now to 2050 is six times the annual volume of emissions today. Energy trends in EuropeIn Europe, the total consumption of energy is almost stable until 2030, but then starts to increase. This is in a sense a statistical phenomenon arising from the high primary heat input of nuclear power. Renewable sources provide 22% and nuclear 30% of the European energy demand in 2050, bringing the share of fossil fuels to less than 50%. Three quarters of power generation is based on nuclear and renewable sources and half of thermal power generation is in plants with CO2 capture and storage. Hydrogen delivers a quantity of energy equivalent to 15% of that delivered by electricity. By 2050, half of the total building stock iscomposed of low energy buildings and a quarter of very low energy buildings. More than half of vehicles are low emission or very low emission vehicles (e.g. electricity or hydrogen powered cars). The world energy system in the H2 case The hydrogen scenarioThe hydrogen scenario is derived from the carbon constraint case, but also assumes a series of technology breakthroughs that significantly increase the cost-effectiveness of hydrogen technologies, in particular in end-use. The assumptions made on progress for the key hydrogen technologies are deliberately very optimistic. Total energy demandAlthough the total energy demand in 2050 is only 8% less than in the Reference case, there are significant changes in the fuel mix. The share of fossil fuels in 2050 is less than 60%; within this share, the demand for coal drops by almost half compared to the Reference case, and this despite the lower cost assumed for CO2 capture and storage. The share of nuclear and renewable energy increases, especially between 2030 and 2050; this behaviour is partly caused by the high carbon values across the world and partly by the increased demand for hydrogen. Electricity productionThe move to a hydrogen economy induces further changes in the structure of generation and the share of nuclear reaches 38%. Thermal electricity production continues to grow and is associated with CO2 capture and storage systems; in 2050, 66% of electricity generation from fossil fuels is in plants equipped with CCS against 12% in the Reference case. Hydrogen production and useThe use of hydrogen takes-off after 2030, driven by substantial reductions in the cost of the technologies for producing hydrogen and the demand-pull in the transport sector. From 2030 to 2050, production increases ten-fold to 1 Gtoe / year. By 2050, hydrogen provides 13% of final energy consumption, compared to 2% in the Reference case. The share of renewable energy in hydrogen production is 50% and that of nuclear is 40%. Around 90% of hydrogen is used in transport. By 2050, the consumption of hydrogen in transport is five times as high as in the Reference case, with a share of 36% of the consumption of the sector. Hydrogen is used in 30% of passenger cars and about 80% of these are powered by fuel cells; 15% are hydrogen hybrid vehicles and 5% are hydrogen internal combustion engines. The European energy system in the H2 case Total energy demandNuclear energy provides a third of the total energy demand in Europe. Oil, natural gas and renewables each provides roughly 20% and coal 6%. Electricity productionThe share of fossil fuels in power generation decreases steadily and significantly. The use of CO2 capture and storage systems develops strongly; by 2050, more than 50% of thermal electricity production is from plants with CO2 capture and storage. Hydrogen production and useThe production of hydrogen increases rapidly after 2030 to reach 120 Mtoe by 2050, or 12% of world production. Hydrogen provides 7% of final energy consumption in Europe, against 3% in the Reference case. In Europe, hydrogen is produced mainly from the electrolysis of water using nuclear electricity. The share of hydrogen produced from renewables is also substantial (40% in 2050). About three quarters of the hydrogen produced in Europe go to the transport sector. Agenda Our Season Events for 2006/2007 are on Thursdays:  the future of ConsciousnessJanuary 25, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of Ambient IntelligenceFebruary 22, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of Global WorkplaceMarch 29, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of SuccessApril 26, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of TourismMay 31, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 Taste of DiversityJune 28, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 2-days LABs in Girona, Spain, moderated by Humberto Schwab: LAB on Old and New ENERGY, April 17/18, 2007 LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience, May 29/30, 2007  Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club   Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …  

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, February 2007, Issue 81

Content Changing lives for the betterLAB on Old and New ENERGY in SpainNews about the future of Ambient IntelligenceClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureLAB on MEDIA and Human Experience in SpainMarket Overview – Ambient IntelligenceEvent about the future of Ambient IntelligenceRecommended BookASTRONETRenewable Energy Technology Roadmap to 2020 Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.“Ambient Intelligence allows Information Society services to be available to anyone, anywhere, using a variety of devices. The vision is an Information Society which is much more user-friendly, more efficient, empowers users and supports human interactions. People will be surrounded by easy-to-use interfaces embedded into all kinds of objects and by an everyday environment that is capable of recognising and responding to individuals in a seamless, unobtrusive and invisible way.” – EU Information Society TechnologiesJoin our discussion about  the future of Ambient Intelligence on February 22 Changing lives for the better  Ambient Intelligence by Philips Research – Technologies This year (2003), Philips’ vision of ambient intelligence reached its fourth birthday. it is the vision of a world in which technology, in the form of small but powerful silicon chips, will be integrated into almost everything around us, from where it will create an environment that is sensitive to the presence of people and responsive to their needs. an ambient intelligence environment will be capable of greeting us when we get home, of judging our mood and adjusting our environment to reflect it or soothe it. such an environment is still a vision, but it is one that has already struck a chord in the minds of researchers around the world and become the subject of several major industry initiatives. one such initiative that has already paid valuable dividends is Philips’ homelab – a test bed for ambient intelligence that is more like a real home than a laboratory. Gaining momentum The vision of Ambient Intelligence first proposed by Philips Research back in 1999 is now, in some shape or form, a significant part of scientific research around the world. It has been an important theme in Philips Research’s collaboration with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), in particular in MIT’s Oxygen project, which is developing technology for the computer of the 21st century. Another alliance with INRIA and Thomson Multimedia has resulted in the initiation of a special project called Ambient Intelligence Research and Development, which is developing software platforms for Ambient Intelligence applications in the home. In addition to these initiatives, Ambient Intelligence has also won significant financial backing from the European Union. During a series of workshops organized by the Information Society and Technology Advisory Group (ISTAG), which serves as an influential advisory board to the European Union, Philips’ vision of Ambient Intelligence was adopted in 2001 as the leading theme for the Sixth Framework on IST Research in Europe. This will result in a European research programme, with a budget of 3.7 billion Euros over the coming four years and dedicated to the topic. Philips’ own commitment to Ambient Intelligence is typified by its investment in  HomeLab – a home that is also a laboratory, not a laboratory that is also a home. HomeLab has real living spaces in which the technology is as well hidden from view as it will be when Ambient Intelligence comes to us all, and several Philips Research establishments throughout the world currently contribute to the programmes that run there. Many of the identifiable characteristics of Ambient Intelligence and the technological solutions that have been developed in HomeLab and other parts of Philips Research to implement them you will find discussed elsewhere in this issue of Password. Ultimately however, Ambient Intelligence is not about technology but about people, because it is not Ambient Intelligence that will shape the future of ordinary people, it is ordinary people who will shape the future of Ambient Intelligence – by making decisions on how they want their lives to be changed. Some of the most vital research in HomeLab is therefore aimed at gaining important psychological clues as to what those decisions might be. Privacy and trust In the same way that HomeLab is as close as possible to a real home, the human guinea pigs that are selected to live in it are as close as possible to ordinary people. They are selected from members of the general public by an independent selection agency, the only criteria being that they fit certain profile parameters such as age and interests. Not surprisingly, when these people first enter HomeLab they are highly inquisitive about the environment. Although they are aware that it is a technologically advanced home, technology in the form they have been used to is nowhere to be seen. Instead of conventional TV sets, for example, there are merely screens with none of the usual controls. A typical first response is to seek out the technology, up-ending chairs and other items of furniture in the belief that they will find technology in everything. While some of this inquisitiveness is probably due to natural curiosity, it is also based in a deep-rooted mistrust of a technology that they know must continuously monitor their activities in order to do its job properly. Thoughts of George Orwell’s ‘1984’ are probably not too far from their minds. In practice, this issue of trust (or mistrust) is one of the main areas of concern for scientists at Philips Research and it is why HomeLab project teams typically include one or more experimental psychologists as well as engineers and scientists. With its firm commitment to improving the quality of people’s lives, Philips is only too aware that no matter how advanced its technology and how exciting the scenarios in which it is used, people will not accept it if they do not trust it. The results of its research so far have shown that simply giving consumers access to and control over the data that the system collects about them is often sufficient to allay there fears, even if they do not choose to exercise that ability. This question of trust is closely linked to another social issue that is addressed in HomeLab – namely the issue of privacy. For a long time, video telephony has been hailed as one of the next killer applications for the connected home, but nearly always in the context of the way existing voice calls are made – the phone rings and you choose whether or not to answer it. In an Ambient Intelligence environment, however, one of the main applications for such links is seen as creating a continuous feeling of togetherness so that you can share specific experiences or everyday living with friends and relations who are physically separated from you. Experiments in HomeLab have shown that ‘full-motion’ video links that show every movement and facial expression of each group member can actually be quite disturbing, because participants have the uneasy feeling of being watched. A better feeling of togetherness was created when the visual information available from remote sites was limited to a sketch-like outline of each person. This is a typical example of how experiments within HomeLab have proven that intuitive solutions are not always the correct ones. Researchers in HomeLab have also investigated ways in which this feeling of togetherness can be engendered as a continuous background task rather than being confined to specific activities such as watching a football match together. When you live with people in the same house, you pick up a lot of contextual clues about who is at home and what they are doing – for example, the shoes that you see in the hallway when you arrive home, the sound of running water in the bathroom or the smell of cooking from the kitchen. Philips Research is therefore looking at ways in which some of this contextual information can be communicated between homes in a way that does not intrude on individual privacy. One idea is that the level of activity on utility feeds such as gas, water and electricity could be monitored and transmitted to the homes of friends or family members in order to provide such clues. A key advantage of HomeLab is that it is a fully working home as well as a laboratory, which means that participants can easily live in it continuously for several days. This has two important advantages. Firstly, it gives them time to forget that they are being observed, not only by the sensors that are built into the Ambient Intelligence systems but also by Philips’ researchers from behind one-way mirrors. Secondly, it allows them to become familiar with the environment and to settle down into daily routines that closely resemble those that apply in their own homes. This second phase, when participants have overcome the wow-factor and become oblivious to the cameras, is the one that yields the results Philips Research is looking for. During this time, the activities, postures, facial expressions and the social and user-system interactions of participants are all recorded so that they can be analysed to identify system improvements and new applications. After more than a year in which several projects have run in HomeLab, several important facts have already come to light. Once people realize the benefits of new technology, they begin to trust it. Once they trust it, they become comfortable with it. And once they become comfortable with it, it changes their lives. A culture of cooperation For those fortunate enough to have been human guinea pigs in Philips’ HomeLab, Ambient Intelligence will have already changed their lives, if only for a few short hours or days. Given a glimpse of what the future might look like, it is highly probable that in some small way it will have altered their perspective on technology forever. However, it is not only the lives of HomeLab’s guinea pigs that Ambient Intelligence has already affected. It has also changed the lives of a large number of people within Philips. For practical reasons of human communication and cooperation, large companies such as Philips, are actually made up of many small companies, each with its own business plan, product development roadmap and marketing strategy. Truly successful companies are the ones that can unite these component companies into a common goal. When you look at the current structure of Philips, which has now been in place for the best part of two decades, it is clear that its separate divisions all operate with the common goal of improving the quality of people’s lives. Its Consumer Electronics division is committed to improving the quality of our leisure experiences, its Medical Systems division to improving our state of health, and its Lighting and Domestic Appliances & Personal Care divisions to extending the hours available to us for enjoyment. Stemming from the very top ranks of Philips, an initiative called TOP (Transforming into One Philips) has already been put in place to leverage synergies between these divisions to create new product concepts and user experiences. In the world of Ambient Intelligence few things operate stand-alone. Lighting, sound, vision, domestic-appliance and personal-healthcare products all play a part in creating a total environment that is sensitive and responsive to the presence of people. Ambient Intelligence therefore fits extremely well into the TOP programme, helping to spread a culture of communication and cooperation throughout the entire company. Such cooperation was the source of  “The New Everyday”, a 350-page comprehensive book on all aspects of Ambient Intelligence, published jointly by Philips Research and Philips Design. LAB on Old and New ENERGY in Spain LAB on Old and New ENERGYAn immersed experience of a Do-Tank April 17 & 18, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 DelegatesPlease use our  Energy LAB registration  Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersNathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of DundeeNuclear policies specialistSimon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder, Global WitnessEnvironmental issuesChristof van Agt, International Energy AgencySustainable energy specialistPaul Holister, Nanotechnology & Energy News about the future of Ambient Intelligence Airport SecurityThe plan is to issue an RFID (radio frequency identification) tag to every passenger at check-in so human traffic can be monitored throughout the airport via transponders and video cameras. Paul Brennan, an electrical engineer at University College London, heads the project, which features an RFID technology called Optag. Funded by the European Union, the technology is being developed by a consortium of European companies and the university. Brennan said Optag has been designed to improve airport security by virtue of its ability to track the movement of suspicious passengers, which would enable security personnel to bar them from entering restricted areas. amBX – a new way of experiencing home entertainment “amBX is shorthand for ‘ambient experiences’. Driving the next generation of home entertainment, it’s a scripting language, a software engine and architecture. With amBX, multiple devices in your room work in harmony to deliver new entertainment experiences: surround lighting, sound, vibration, air movement and other effects. It takes what’s pretty much a ‘virtual’ activity – games, DVDs, music – and turns it into a far more tangible, immersive experience. The applications of amBX are only limited by the imagination and creativity of content creators and, ultimately, end users. Just imagine ambient room lighting and other changes tied-in to your favourite music, to web content, interactive toys and games, books, or even to reflect the time of day and your changing moods? “ Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog February 12:  Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices?January 8:  The Future of ConsciousnessDecember 18:  selfleadDecember 14:  On the Art of Value-Webbing News about the Future The Museum of Modern Betas The MoMB is a site dedicated to listing webbased applications on a beta trip.Saurier Duval, the man behind the Museum of Modern Betas (MOMB): “Currently I update entries if a site goes from private to public beta, out of beta, shuts down and so on, and there is a dedicated section for sites which went out of beta. There was a section for sites which no longer exist a while ago, but I removed it ’cause it felt a bit like enjoying someone elses failure and I didn’t like that.” A clear view with transparent coatings Fogged-up windshields will soon be a thing of the past: A new lacquer will ensure better visibility in tomorrow’s cars. The electrically conductive coating uses nanotechnology to heat the windshield across its entire surface – with no wires to obstruct the view. On cold winter mornings, a driver’s vision is often blurred by moisture precipitating on the inside of the windshield. This happens when warm, humid air comes into contact with a cold surface. At a particular temperature, known as the dew point, the moisture in the air condenses and forms a layer on the colder surface; irrespective of whether this is a glass containing a cold drink, the bathroom mirror after a shower, or the windshield of a cold car. Cold air is not able to contain as much moisture as warm air and this fact is much more noticeable in small spaces, in a car for example. Condensation can be prevented by increasing the volume of air (opening the windows), by heating the whole of the vehicle’s interior, or by heating at least the windshield to a temperature above the dew point. Ivica Kolaric of the Fraunhofer Technology Development Group TEG in Stuttgart favors the third option. His new process warms up the windscreen – though not with costly copper heating elements, but instead with a transparent coat of carbon lacquer, or more exactly carbon nano tubes (CNT). Kolaric and his team are currently working on a bonding system which, in a year or two from now, could keep not only windshields but also bathroom mirrors free from condensation LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience in Spain  LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates The underlying question is:“What is the meaning of media innovation on the quality of the human experience?” If we talk about human experience we mean the inner- and outer experience. So cognitive technology knowledge, related fields of neuroscience and anthropology are essential in these matters.We start from the knowledge we have about brain and computer games, television and our psychological state, Internet and communications, identity and images. We use the experience we have with the relation between media and mobility, learning, politics, power etc.Given the ubiquity of media, the change to read and write media, the nano-technology revolution and the open source movement: we have to determine the burning questions. With different brainstorm tools we will innovate al these concepts so we can integrate these new hybrids and innovations in strong human oriented meanings and human values.Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher With the Thought LeadersLaurence Desarzens, urban communicator, beatmap.comPaul F.M.J. Verschure, ICREA research professor, Technology Department, University Pompeu FabraRicardo Baeza-Yates, Director, Yahoo! ResearchRudy de Waele, Founder, M-trends.org www.clubofamsterdam.com Market Overview – Ambient Intelligence A research by Frost & Sullivan Focused Research Efforts Necessary to Take Ambient Intelligence toward Commercialization Ambient intelligence combines ubiquitous computing, interfaces and communications to take interaction between users and devices to a much more sophisticated level. The goal is to develop a network of intelligent devices that is pervasive and unobtrusive to cooperatively gather, process, and transport information across various environments. Current research efforts in this field focus on key areas such as security, generic platforms for executing heterogenous applications, development of autonomous devices, agent-based computing, intelligent interfaces, and distributed architecture among others. Since it is still in the conceptual stage, the success of ambient intelligent is dependent on a combination of factors. For example, the development of unobtrusive hardware that merges with the environment has become a vital requirement. “With the current trend of miniaturization in the electronics industry, and the advancements in nanoelectronics and nanodevices unobtrusive hardware is a definite possibility,” says the analyst of this research service. “Research is also underway to create miniature hardware that exhibits low heat dissipation, consumes less power, operates at higher speeds, and has a longer life.” Since an ambient intelligence environment would consist of a network of innumerable devices that are portable in nature there is also a need for dynamic and distributed device networks. The network should therefore support plug-and-play features to instantaneously connect devices after the initial authentication process, and identity establishment. Researchers must also work toward ensuring greater dependability and security for ambient intelligence to reach commercialization. Interoperability and Standardization Key to Successful Implementation of Ambient Intelligence As researchers strive towards taking ambient intelligence into the commercial market, interoperability and standardization will play a critical role. “Since ambient intelligence is built on the principle of integrating multiple devices through various communications medium and technologies, implementation becomes highly challenging,” explains the analyst. “The key is to enable users to interface with any device in a simple manner through a generic platform that connects all the devices without any technological issues.” Standardization right from the interface level to the implementation and hardware deployment is also proving to be important for integrating a pool of heterogeneous devices. Another key accelerator for ambient intelligence is the rapid advancements in wireless communication technologies in terms of higher bandwidth and data transfer rates and low power requirements. As ambient intelligence overcomes the initial challenges and heads into commercialization, healthcare and home automation are expected to be the fastest and biggest adopters of this revolutionary technology. […] Next Season Event    the future of Ambient IntelligenceThursday, February 22, 2007Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: Info.nl, Sint Antoniesbreestraat 16, 1011 HB Amsterdam [Next to Nieuwmarkt] Introduction by our ModeratorsBen Schouten, Lector Ambient Intelligence and Design, Fontys & CWIRob van Kranenburg, Innovation and Media TheoristThe promise of an Ambient SocietyBoris de Ruyter, Principal Scientist, Media Interaction Department, Philips Research EuropePromise of AI for the home (ideal home)Erik Geelhoed, Hewlett-Packard Laboratories, UKPromise of AI in mobility and mobile gamingBerry Eggen, Professor, Vice Dean, Department of Industrial Design, TU EindhovenPromise of AI for designKlaas Kuitenbrouwer, MediamaticPromise of AI for mediaMaurits Kreijveld, Challenger Recommended Book The New Everyday View on Ambient Intelligenceby Stefano Marzano; Emile Aarts What is Ambient Intelligence? Is it embedding technology into objects? How does it incorporate or cater for universal desires, complex social relationships, different value systems? What about individuals’ likes and dislikes, or the sustainability of economic and natural ecosystems? This book explores the increasingly relevant phenomenon of Ambient Intelligence in the form of essays by experts with illustrations. ASTRONET  ASTRONET was created by a group of European funding agencies in order to establish a comprehensive long-term planning for the development of European astronomy. The objective of this effort is to consolidate and reinforce the world-leading position that European astronomy has attained at the beginning of this 21st century.Science VisionThe goal is to establish a global European Science Vision for Astronomy for the next 15-20 years, based on the existing national and regional strategic plans, complemented from analysis of key scientific themes by ad-hoc panels set up by the ASTRONET Board. To establish a global European astronomical Science Vision for the next 15-20 years will be the task of the Science Vision Working Group (SVWG). The field has been divided in four broad science questions:Do we understand the extremes of the universe?How do galaxies form and evolve?How do stars and planets form?How do we fit in?From  “The future of Danish Astronomy”Astronomy is unique among the natural sciences. Astronomy asks some of the deepest questions facing the human mind: How did the Universe begin, and how will it end? How did it evolve to contain galaxies, stars, planets, and humans? Do we live in a special part of the Universe? Does life exist elsewhere? Such questions have a strong and immediate appeal to the general public; astronomy programs on TV are very popular, and so are planetarium shows and public lectures. Astronomy is also exciting for school children, especially in high school (gymnasium) where about 500 students each year take special astronomy classes, and where astronomy is a popular topic also in physics and science classes. Thus, astronomy is an effective way to ignite the spark of interest of young people in the sciences, a matter of concern for governments and society throughout the world.In searching for answers to these fundamental questions, modern astro-physics is becoming a strongly interdisciplinary activity, involving all branches of physics, many ingredients from chemistry and geology, and elements from biology. Progress is intimately linked to technical advancements over a wide front, from development of new telescopes and detectors for all wavebands to supercomputers simulating the complex dynamics of astrophysical systems. In particular, new and innovative spacecraft now allow astronomers to explore the Earth’s environment and the Solar system, and to study the Universe at wavelengths (gamma- and X-rays, infrared and optical), which are disturbed or blocked by the Earth’s atmosphere.The potential for scientific breakthroughs in the coming decade is tremendous. In the Universe we routinely observe processes under physical conditions far beyond any which can be reproduced in laboratories on Earth; thus, breakthroughs in astrophysics are bound to have profound implications for physics in general. Astrophysics is thus a key player on the scientific forefront of physics, not just an incentive for recruitment to science. The full report describes the most prominent frontiers in more detail. Danish astronomy has the potential to play a prominent role in these exciting developments. Through the Danish memberships in ESO (European Southern Observatory) and ESA (European Space Agency) we have access to most of the leading observational facilities in the world. The development of a coherent international archiving system will place the best observational data worldwide at our fingertips. Denmark is well prepared for this exciting future as an active participant in ESO and ESA, and by developing the corresponding theoretical, modeling and technical capabilities. Now the time is ripe to benefit from these substantial investments. Renewable Energy Technology Roadmap to 2020 The main characteristics of the present energy supply system in Europe are the dominating share of fossil fuels as well as the high dependence on energy imports. In the EU-25, fossil fuels contribute almost 80 % to the primary energy demand. When faced with the fact that only a few EU Member States are currently on track to meet their targets for 2010, it is of utmost importance to ensure that these existing targets for Renewable Energies are being achieved and that a framework for the future is set. This brochure shows the ambitions of the European Renewable Energy industry, while at the same time trying to make a concrete proposal for new targets. Concerning this structure it must be kept in mind that the resources of fossil and nuclear fuels are limited in principle. This might not restrict the energy supply in the short or mid term but the peak of production of, at least, conventional oil is already expected to occur in the next two to three decades, with some geologists seeing this peak occurring much sooner. An even more important problem with fossil fuels arises due to the fact that most of them need to be imported.To make energy supply more secure the EU Commission’s Green Paper, amongst others, recommends to tackle the EU’s rising dependence on imported energy through an “integrated approach – reducing demand, diversifying the EU’s energy mix with greater use of competitive, indigenous and Renewable Energy, and diversifying sources and routes of supply of imported energy”.And the Commission’s statements concerning Renewable Energies are very clear: “Action on Renewables and Energy Efficiency, besides tackling climate change, will contribute to security of energy supply and help limit the EU’s growing dependence on imported energy.” And more importantly, the Commission leaves no doubt that Europe must act urgently, because it takes many years to bring innovation in the energy sector. This is also true concerning Renewable Energies: At present the EU leads the world in promoting Renewable forms of Energy, yet this position must be reinforced.Taking the results of the recently published baseline (“business as usual”) scenario, written by Mantzos and Capros2, Renewable Energies will not meet these expectations by 2020 without further political and legal attention. They will not meet them even if they fulfilled the targets fixed by the EU for 2010. It is true that from 2025 onwards Renewables will become the most important indigenous energy source, but according to the baseline scenario by Mantzos and Capros their contribution to the total primary energy demand will only be roughly 8% in 2010, slightly more than 12% in 2020 and only 12% in 2030 far away from any target set so far. And it is also much farther away from the huge potential within Renewable Energy Sources, as well as from the capabilities of the European Renewable Energy industry, which is ready to commit to contributing a minimum 20% target in 2020 and respective sectorial targets for electricity, heating and cooling as well as biofuels for transport. To strengthen the security of supply and to contribute to the restructuring of the energy system by means of Renewable Energy, the European Union must set more ambitious long term mandatory sector targets to guarantee stability, and commitment for investment decisions.Without a major shift towards Renewable Energy Sources in combination with energy conservation and efficiency we will lose the chance of securing our energy supply system. If we take that chance now, the EU could become the most energy import independent region in the world. Agenda Our Season Events for 2006/2007 are on Thursdays:  the future of Ambient IntelligenceFebruary 22, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of Global WorkplaceMarch 29, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of SuccessApril 26, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of TourismMay 31, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 Taste of DiversityJune 28, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 2-days LABs in Girona, Spain, moderated by Humberto Schwab: LAB on Old and New ENERGY, April 17/18, 2007 LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience, May 29/30, 2007 Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club   Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …  

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, February 2007, Issue 82

Content Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices?Energy LABNews about the future of EnergyClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureQ&A with Paul Holister about Nanotechnology & EnergyEvent about the future of Global WorkplaceRecommended BookCross-Media Summit for Content DiscoveryLAB on MEDIA and Human Experience Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.” All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure.” – Mark Twain “I dread success. To have succeeded is to have finished one’s business on earth, like the male spider, who is killed by the female the moment he has succeeded in his courtship. I like a state of continual becoming, with a goal in front and not behind.” – George Bernard Shaw“When you get out of bed in the morning and think about what you want to do that day, ask yourself whether you’d like others to read about it on the front page of tomorrow’s newspaper. You’ll probably do things a little differently if you keep that in mind.” – Warren BuffettFelix Bopp, editor-in-chiefJoin our next Season Event about the future of Success on April 26.And check out our labs in Girona near Barcelona: LAB on Old and New ENERGY – April 17&18 LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience– May 29&30 Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices?   Q&A with Humberto Schwab, Director Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher, Moderator of the Club of Amsterdam LABs in Girona, Spain  LAB on Old and New ENERGYLAB on MEDIA and Human Experience Club of Amsterdam: Humberto – you are an Innovation Philosopher – most people hardly see a connection between philosophy and daily life and even less between philosophy and business. What is the added value? Why has philosophy something to say? Philosophy is the body of experimental and theoretical knowledge collected and shared by humanity since the invention of this specie. It is the richest fountain of wisdom about our selves as human beings, our needs and aspirations, our world outside and inside us and most of all about our values. In philosophy we investigate falsehood and truth, the permanent and the temporarily, good and bad acting, good government and bad societies, beautiful and ugliness. Most of all we have gathered wisdom about the quality of life. We try to make our daily life every day an experience of quality. At least many people try to reach this. This striving for quality is what connects our life with philosophy. Essential in our daily life is that we have our eyes wide open to see the right elements in their right relation; this is where philosophical methods are. We need to get rid of prejudice and false presumptions. In business – more and more – the essence lies in the ability in enhancing the quality of life, in part or as a whole. This quality is related to issues of ethical policy and sustainable business. Sustainable is not only a matter of the natural environment, more and more we realize that sustainability concerns the quality of our communities. The pursuit of the good life is more and more the frame in which innovation in the experience economy is moving. Last but not least, philosophy contains all the possible concepts, approaches, notions and strategies to frame productive ways of reasoning. Innovation is essential the rethinking of tradition, tradition as recipes for life. Taking traditional steps over again leads to new insights. That is why innovation is often a hybrid connection between old practices. Innovation sometimes demands new paradigms; philosophy is the producer of new paradigms. You have been involved in large-scale educational programs. Can you give us an example of what you did and what the outcome was? We managed to position philosophy in the official juridical structure of the secondary school system in the Netherlands. This old philosophy was recognized as one of the strongest innovation in Holland. I designed a complete program for the schools. A big innovation was the transformation of 100 excellent Dutch teachers from different disciplines into real Socratic teachers. That means wise people who put forward the right questions and not the answers. At the moment I am involved in fundamental innovations of education in the Netherlands and in Spain. In our society of the future learning is a value as such. This demands a totally different perspective on education and schooling. In an i-society learning has a different place then in the past hierarchical society. We need business, ngo-s, academies, citizen’s organisations and local government to co-create a challenging learning landscape in Europe. In your EuroLab you use a special combination of techniques – some have been widely used in industries. Can you tell us why you choose them and how you adapt them to your projects? The most used techniques are used instrumental while I always want to work in dialogues. A dialogue involves the total presence and commitment of the individual as reflective being. This means maximal awareness and maximal responsibility. We cannot oppose general techniques on humans, without losing their individual strength. The Appreciative Inquiry method is very strong dialogue method in business, especially when – like the present situation – the relations between the stakeholders become totally different. The Appreciative Inquiry (AI) bring to light all the hidden good practices and experiences of all the individuals involved, emerged from their personal life. The top down model of the expert above sending his missives down kills the experience wisdom present in the whole organization. This AI method is fruit of a bunch of scientific insight on the effects of positive psychological approaches. The Socratic method I have adapted to learning situations in school and business is the strongest context I know. Fundamental in this method is the key role of the good question. Putting forward basic questions is the art of collaboration. It gives new air to breath new ideas. People hardly share basic questions, let alone basic assumptions. Yet they work in contexts as if they share assumptions, values and concepts. The deconstructing of a basic question and the reconstructing of a shared answer uses collective intelligence as a rich fountain and provokes strong bounding on crucial challenges. In the Socratic discourse, the philosophical tradition serves as a support system, it helps to articulate good intuitions, good arguments and good ideas of all the participants. The Socratic chair (trained philosopher) represents the tradition and embodies it in a supportive way for each participant. In a Socratic discourse the group transform in a natural way into a reflecting body that emerges a higher intelligence and a higher responsibility. It exercises human collectively at his best. It has strong rules that forces people to rethink other positions and to rehearse steps in thinking taken by others, it forces people to listen and repeat and to clarify all concepts used. The strong authoritative way of safeguarding the rules by the Socratic chair, gives rise to a real strong participation of all in an egalitarian way. The strong relation between flourishing business and democratic cultures lies precise in the opportunity to put forward any valuable question of the quality of human life. The dialogue starts with the rethinking of standing practices and will virtualize new possible worlds and actions. Good business ideas are in fact very often philosophical brainwaves! More and more good business and good government are critically checked on qualitative grounds, from citizens perspectives. From the Socratic brainstorms we have to come to a stage of productive planning. The future scenario methods are excellent in binding people on shared visions of the future and on shared actions to realize desired scenarios. Good dialogues generate an emergent intelligence that will give complete new frames and horizons. Yet scenarios without value dialogues are blind. That is why in my EuroLABS the basic structure is the embedding of the personas in a value dialogue context. The revitalization of the basic existential questions generates an energy that also creates strong creative content. We often hear that there has been enough talking and we should act now. Why do you put dialogue into the centre of your labs? And how does it relate to Do-Tanks? There has definitely been enough talking, but then we talk about talking in the one-dimensional level we are used to do. Besides this talking is mostly discussions without any check of concepts, understanding of each other or reflections on principles or presumptions. This talking is often a chat between deaf people, they afterwards will follow their own routine in the way of thinking they were used to do. The Club of Amsterdam LABs lead to a change in internal dialogue; people really need a strong dialogue with other beings to change their internal reflections and dialogues. This will directly lead to action, when you make shared action plans and design a sustainable dialogue with the stakeholders. To shift from a money driven society to a value driven society needs a new way of talking: the real human dialogue. Action is always for a crucial part guided thinking or unconscious frameworks of meaning. The Socratic dialogues make sharing intelligent action possible. Thank you Humberto! Energy LAB LAB on Old and New ENERGYAn immersed experience of a Do-Tank April 17 & 18, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersNathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of DundeeNuclear policies specialistSimon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder, Global WitnessEnvironmental issuesChristof van Agt, International Energy AgencySustainable energy specialistPaul Holister, Nanotechnology & Energy News about the future of Energy Energy [R]evolution The good news first. Renewable energy, combined with the smart use of energy, can deliver half of the world’s energy needs by 2050.This new report, ‘Energy [R]evolution: A sustainable World Energy Outlook’, shows that it is economically feasible to cut global CO2 emissions by almost 50% within the next 43 years. It also concludes that a massive uptake of renewable energy sources is technically possible. All that is missing is the right policy support. The bad news is that time is running out. An overwhelming consensus of scientific opinion now agrees that climate change is happening, is caused in large part by human activities (such as burning fossil fuels), and if left un-checked, will have disastrous consequences. Furthermore, there is solid scientific evidence that we should act now. Sealing carbon dioxide (CO2) under the seabed in Japan Injecting carbon dioxide into the ground is a technology currently used for the subterranean storage of natural gas and for increasing petroleum production – known as “enhanced oil recovery,” or EOR. The idea behind sub-seabed storage is to apply this technology in the interests of environmental conservation. It is estimated that up to 90 billion tons of carbon dioxide can be stored in subterranean locations in Japan and sub-seabed locations in Japanese waters. This corresponds to 70 to 80 years’ worth of Japanese carbon dioxide emissions. As Japan has a wealth of experience and know-how in underground storage of natural gas and EOR technology, its work in the field of carbon dioxide sequestration is thought to be closest to practical application. Murai Shigeo, the leader of the RITE carbon dioxide sequestration group: “We have been able to show that carbon dioxide injection in Japan’s particular geological conditions is possible, and computer simulations based on our monitoring activity give a good idea of how the gas will behave over the next thousand years.” Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog February 12:  Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices?January 8:  The Future of ConsciousnessDecember 18:  selfleadDecember 14:  On the Art of Value-Webbing News about the Future Blue Brain The Blue Brain project is the first comprehensive attempt to reverse-engineer the mammalian brain, in order to understand brain function and dysfunction through detailed simulations. A project this ambitious would have been ridiculed a few years ago. “Today we have the computers we need,” says biologist Henry Markram, 44, the project’s director. “And we know enough to begin.” Markram knows about the problems his group can look forward to. “But if we don’t build the brain,” he says, “we’ll never understand how it works.” Global Peer Award Realeyes3D was selected from 20 MobileMonday Global Peer Award finalists chosen from all over the world as best-of-breed companies demonstrating exceptional innovativeness in mobility. Realeyes3D operates at two levels: It runs a mobile copy service for camera phone users, www.qipit.com and sells “handwritten messaging” applications to handset vendors. Q&A with Paul Holister about Nanotechnology & Energy   Paul Holister is a consultant specialising in, among other things, the commercial and societal impacts of new technologies. He is currently writing “Nanotechnology and the Future of Energy”, to be published by John Wiley and Sons. Paul is a Thought Leader at the LAB on Old and New ENERGY Club of Amsterdam: Paul, you are currently writing a book about “Nanotechnology and the Future of Energy”. Can you describe how nanotechnology can have an impact on energy generation, storage, and utilization? Nanotechnology operates at such a fundamental level that there is very little of a technological nature that it will not impact. Thus its effects on energy generation, transmission, storage and consumption are numerous and diverse. Some will be incremental and some quite possibly revolutionary. Rather than trying to sketch the whole landscape, a few examples will hopefully illustrate the variety. At the mundane end of the scale you have anti-fouling paints for wave or tidal power, or materials with a higher tolerance for radiation in nuclear reactors. I did say mundane. In wind power, the potentially enormous improvements in strength-to-weight ratio of composite materials used in blades could pay back surprisingly well because the relationship of blade length to efficiency is not linear but follows a power law – though there is much argument about how this pans out in the real world. At the other extreme of nanotech impact, you have solar energy. We are children in this area, and the playground is built on the nanoscale. Almost any development is going to involve nanotech – an intriguing recent exception being the use of lenses to focus light on old-fashioned silicon photovoltaics, thus demanding less of this expensive material. This is one of the areas where nanotech-enabled technology could well be revolutionary. But what makes for a revolution in energy generation? Two things: availability and economics. The fact that solar energy is so bountiful – enough hits the Earth in a minute to meet our global requirements for at least a week – makes it potentially revolutionary; it’s just the cost of capturing that energy that has been standing in the way. Reduce that enough, or increase the cost of the alternatives, and you have a revolution. One other energy source could, I believe, be equally revolutionary. Not fusion, which, despite the dreams of my youth, I sadly have to relegate to a distant future – not that the ongoing experiments aren’t worthwhile. Geothermal energy, boring as hot rocks and steam may sound – outside of saunas, that is -, has revolutionary potential for the same reason as solar – an essentially unlimited supply of energy untapped only because of economics. The nanotech connection is not as direct here as with solar – you have tougher materials to cut drilling costs or thermoelectric tunneling for efficient low-grade heat conversion – but it only takes the right conjunction of developments and geothermal power stations will be springing up – or down – all over the place. I’ve only considered here principal power generation, but this should already give some sense of the breadth and potential scale of impact. I’d be surprised to find any reader of this unaware of the excitement surrounding developments in fuel cell and battery technology. Nanotechnology figures almost without exception in the cutting edge of both. But I could go on for ages answering this question – you could almost make a book out of it … How do nanotechnology-based solutions apply particularly, if at all, to environmental concerns and energy security issues? From an energy security point of view, nanotech developments are invariably positive since, at the very least, they can help save energy – aerogels for better insulation, IR-reflective window coatings, low-grade heat conversion in cars, etc.. They also assist to varying degrees in the development of alternatives to the fossil fuels upon which so many of us are now so dangerously dependant. I’ve already mentioned the potential of solar and geothermal energy. On the environmental front the answer is not so clear. We live in a world where short-term economics have an overwhelming influence on decision making. The good news for those who worry about things like global warming, is that the increasing cost of oil – a long-term trend that will not stop, oil being a finite resource – and the decreasing cost of alternatives such as solar energy, give renewables an ever more favourable economic position. When you look at the diverse spread of nanotech-related impacts they are almost always supporting technologies with an improved environmental profile. Unfortunately, there is a rather big exception to this. Nanotechnology has helped greatly improve the effectiveness of catalysts. Fuel cells and catalytic converters are among the welcome beneficiaries. But catalysis is also at the heart of gas-to-liquid and coal liquefaction technologies that promise oil independence for those with access to previously uneconomical gas reserves or to coal reserves. Energy security is a big carrot and it so happens that two highly-populated countries that rank among the fastest-growing economies in the world, and thus the fastest-growing energy consumers, are coal-rich: China and India. North America too is coal-rich. If such countries can start to economically run their cars, trucks and buses on diesel made from coal – which ironically is low-emission compared with normal diesel at the vehicle end but overall produces more CO2 than oil-based diesel – then we could be looking at a greenhouse gas nightmare scenario – there is enough coal in the world to supply our energy needs for hundreds of years. So, greenhouse nightmare or an emission-free future? Nanotechnology can enable them both. Barring a global wave of forward planning unseen in mankind’s history, economics will probably make the decision for us. What do you expect from a dialogue between “old and new energy”? Taking ‘old energy’ to be the way we have done things since the dawn of the industrial revolution, i.e. primarily by burning fossil fuels, I think that the likeliest difference between old and new energy, and the generator of greatest debate, will be systemic rather than one particular technology or another. The question of when and how the transition to new energy occurs is also intriguing – as the coal liquefaction scenario above shows, we could in theory be stuck with the old, or pretty similar, for some time to come. We have gorged ourselves for more than a century on the energy equivalent of a free lunch. As we start to realise that, while there may be such a thing as a free lunch, it isn’t necessarily dinner and breakfast too, we can size up the alternatives, the most striking thing about which is their diversity. Only coal and nuclear fission are potential candidates for maintaining the uniform and monolithic energy network we have now in the developed world. There are good reasons to avoid both, if we can – some would argue that we cannot. All the alternatives involve a mix of technologies and energy sources, with energy not always being produced where you want and when you want, thus producing a far more complex system than we have now. The phrase ‘intelligent grid’ is often held up as an example of how this complexity will operate, with buying, selling and saving of energy being possible at many scales. I’d rather do away with the ‘grid’ word altogether because it evokes the electricity grid that we in the developed world generally take for granted but which exists only as a consequence of our historical dependence on fossil fuels, and is grossly inefficient. In a mixed-energy-source scenario, the traditional grid would be challenged by localised generation, the form of which would vary according to location – Saudi: sunshine; Greenland: geothermal. The gridless or localised grid scenario begs the question of how large amounts of energy will be transferred from one place to another, which will no doubt continue to be either required or an economically viable activity. The classic answer is hydrogen, but it is unfortunately a lousy way to transport energy, thanks largely to its volatility. In theory, the development of cheap, high-load superconducting cables – perhaps made of carbon nanotubes – might keep the old-fashioned grid alive but it seems to me that an efficient means of converting whatever energy source happens to be available to you into a fuel that is liquid, or close to it, at room temperature – e.g. methanol -, combined with a fuel cell technology to make good use of it, would be a hard system to beat when it comes to storage and transmission. As I write, there are at least a few scientists around the world trying to figure out ways to outdo Mother Nature in turning sunlight into a compact, transportable energy source. All of which happens, of course, on the nanoscale. Thank you Paul! Next Season Event    the future of the Gobal WorkplaceThursday, March 29, 2007Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Thomas R. Malthusstraat 5, 1066 JR AmsterdamWithMandar Apte, Business Strategy – Competitive Intelligence Analyst, Shell Global Solutions International B.V.Workplace of the future – scenarios and trends – Views of a global citizen Andrew Kruseman Aretz, Partner, Human Resource Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers Belastingadviseurs N.V.Changing demographics of people flows around the World Jean-Claude Knebeler, Director of Foreign Trade, Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade, LuxembourgDoes off-shoring hold the key to success, especially for SME’s? Moderated by Hedda Pahlson-Moller, Managing Director, Omnisource International, Benelux Client Executive for Evalueserve Recommended Book Nuclear Energy: Principles, Practices, and Prospectsby David Bodansky The world faces serious difficulties in obtaining the energy that will be needed in coming decades for a growing population, especially given the problem of climate change caused by fossil fuel use. This book presents a view of nuclear energy as an important carbon-free energy option. It discusses the nuclear fuel cycle, the types of reactors used today and proposed for the future, nuclear waste disposal, reactor accidents and reactor safety, nuclear weapon proliferation, and the cost of electric power. To provide background for these discussions, the book begins with chapters on the history of the development and use of nuclear energy, the health effects of ionizing radiation, and the basic physics principles of reactor operation. The text has been rewritten and substantially expanded for this edition, to reflect changes that have taken place in the eight years since the publication of the first edition and to provide greater coverage of key topics. These include the Yucca Mountain repository plans, designs for next-generation reactors, weapons proliferation and terrorism threats, the potential of alternatives to nuclear energy, and controversies about low-level radiation Cross-Media Summit for Content Discovery The Strategy, Technology and Business Case for Content Description, Visibility, Search and DiscoveryFriday 9th March 2007, Frontline Club, London, UKGathering creators, rights holders and technology expertsModerated by Bob Auger, Technology Correspondent, Cue EntertainmentFree to experts How do content owners increase the visibility and discovery of their content? Do we need more standards? What are the drivers for industry adoption? Can we make the tools easier to use? What are the requirements of end-users in the media industry? THE UNIVERSAL CATALOGUE – IS THERE THE WILL TO BUILD IT?Participants include CEO of ISAN, Head of R&D at MCPS-PRS Alliance, Principal Engineer for Pioneer Digital Design and Microsoft’s DDEX board member. Bringing together key cross-industry strategists and technologists from standards, search, image, music and film, shaping the digital media marketplace. Identifying areas for further investigation to drive adoption of metadata syndication ecosystems. Participants will share experiences, discover synergy and innovate.www.kendra.org.uk Media LAB LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersLaurence Desarzens, urban communicator, beatmap.comMedia & communication specialist for lifestyle companiesPaul F.M.J. Verschure, ICREA research professor, Technology Department, University Pompeu FabraPsychologist. Specialist for wheeled and flying robots, interactive spaces and avatarsRicardo Baeza-Yates, Director, Yahoo! ResearchSpecialist for content and structure organization of a website and for blogs, vlogs and social networksRudy de Waele, Founder, M-trends.orgWireless communication expert Agenda Our Season Events for 2006/2007 are on Thursdays: the future of Global WorkplaceMarch 29, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of SuccessApril 26, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of TourismMay 31, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 Taste of DiversityJune 28, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 LAB in Girona near Barcelona, Spain, moderated by Humberto Schwab:  LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceMay 29 & 30, 2007 Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club   Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …  

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, March 2007, Issue 83

Content Knowledge Process OffshoringEnergy LABNews about the future of the Global WorkplaceClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureThe Future of China’s Economy – The Path to 2020Event about the future of Global WorkplaceRecommended BookQ&A with Nathalie Horbach about the future of Nuclear EnergyLAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceQ&A with Simon Taylor about Climate and Energy Provision Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.Join our discussion about   the future of the Global Workplace on March 29: Organisations are ‘going global’ in new ways and expanding to new locations, offering considerable benefits for the organisation. These bring a new set of employment opportunities and problems. The traditional arguments for offshoring to new locations have often been built around cost arbitrage, taking advantage of lower labour and related costs in manufacturing or routine service provision. Recent studies show that the ‘new’ locations can offer access to skilled and innovative pools of talent, and to different approaches to leadership and management. The motivation of mobile workers is also changing as employees place different value on working internationally. The discussion examines these changing workforce challenges and how organisations are revising policies to meet these new needs. – Andrew Kruseman Aretz, Partner, Human Resource Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers Belastingadviseurs N.V.Don’t miss the Early Bird registration for the  LAB on Old and New ENERGY– March 9th! And for  LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience– March 16th! Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief Knowledge Process Offshoring Published by Evalueserve Knowledge Process Offshoring (KPO) – A ‘Win-Win’ Situation Executive Summary Indian KPO sector, with revenues of 0.72 billion in 2003, accounted for 56% of the global KPO sector. According to Evalueserve, share of Indian KPO sector is expected to increase to 71% of the Global KPO sector, with revenues of USD 12 billion, by 2010. Evalueserve estimates that the Indian KPO market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 49.5 percent between 2003 and 2010, compared to a CAGR of 30.6 percent for Indian BPO market, and a CAGR of 44.5 percent for global KPO market over the same period. The service sector accounted for 51 percent of India’s GDP in 2003, much higher than 28 percent in 1950 and also one of the highest among the developing economies. Evalueserve estimates that the share of service sector is expected to rise to 57 percent in 2010 and the phenomenal growth of IT software and services sector has remained one of the major components of the Indian service sector growth. Outsourcing of high-end jobs is a win-win situation for both the end client and the KPO vendor. Evalueserve analysis shows a positive change in the cost structure of the clients (cost-cutting of as much as 40-70 percent) due to outsourcing of jobs to low- cost destinations like India. India with its large pool of chartered accountants, doctors, MBAs, lawyers and research analysts, is expected to dominate the KPO sector along with the BPO sector. In fact, India’s edge in providing KPO services will help it stay way ahead of other low-cost outsourcing destinations in the global outsourcing market. There are immense opportunities in high-end KPO for Indian firms. The potential high-end opportunities are in the areas, such as pharmaceuticals, investment banking, market research and competitive intelligence, bioinformatics, data search, integration and management. The full report can be downloaded as a *.pdf  click here Energy LAB LAB on Old and New ENERGYAn immersed experience of a Do-Tank April 17 & 18, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersNathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of DundeeNuclear policies specialistSimon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder, Global WitnessEnvironmental issuesChristof van Agt, International Energy AgencySustainable energy specialistPaul Holister, Nanotechnology & Energy News about the future of the Global Workplace Building a Global Workplace CommunityBy Stephen M. Paskoff, Esq., President, ELI Many multinational firms are struggling with a kind of identity crisis: How do we create one global workplace community out of all of these various and culturally distinct workplaces? Moreover, what do we expect of the members of that global community in terms of how they treat one another and conduct their business? When an employee in one region can send an inappropriate or culturally offensive e-mail to people around the world with one click, finding an answer to these questions is becoming more and more of a business necessity. Corporate culture and “people” issues take on new complexities when the workplace spans multiple countries and regions. read International Trends in Workplace Safety and Health The general trend throughout industrialized nations is a sharing and cooperation of research and legislation. The US, EU, UK, Australia, Japan, Korea, Finland and Canada, all recognizedleaders in occupational health and safety, are using information technology to share this information across borders. This is seen in the buildup of content-rich national websites conveniently linked for ease of use by employers throughout the world. The EU has a research agenda, which puts it in the lead for research-based information on Occupational safety and health. Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog March 20:  The Future of the WebMarch 13:  “We Media”March 05:  Climate and Energy ProvisionFebruary 27:  The future of Nuclear EnergyFebruary 21:  Nanotechnology & EnergyFebruary 12:  Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices? News about the Future Holographic images use shimmer to show cellular response to anticancer drug The response of tumors to anticancer drugs has been observed in real-time 3-D images using technology developed at Purdue University.The new digital holographic imaging system uses a laser and a charged couple device, or CCD, the same microchip used in household digital cameras, to see inside tumor cells. The device also may have applications in drug development and medical imaging. R&D in sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa must improve its scientific and technological capacity if it is to boost social and economic development. According to UNESCO, there is less than one scientist or engineer for every ten thousand people in Africa – compared with two to five per thousand in Europe and the United States. But experts disagree on how to improve this capacity. Some suggest investing in select institutes as centres of excellence; others argue that efforts should focus on strengthening existing infrastructure. Some think policymakers should support capabilities within individual firms, while many believe that informal research and development activities, or cross-sector networks, best encourage industrialisation. The Future of China’s Economy – The Path to 2020   Rohit Talwar is a global futurist, entrepreneur, researcher and specialist advisor. The ReportChina has experienced an unparalleled transformation in just 30 years since opening up the economy. Now the world’s fourth largest economy, over 400 million have been taken out of poverty and it has become the world’s leading consumer of commodities such as steel and aluminium. China is on course to quadruple the size of its economy from $1trillion in 2000 to $4 trillion by 2012. Forecasts suggest it could overtake the USA, Japan and Germany to become the world’s largest economy as early as 2035. The middle class is expected to exceed 500 million within ten years.Against this backdrop of breathtaking statistics, how is the rest of the world reacting, how are businesses viewing the China market and what are their expectations of China’s global impact in the period to 2020?To help address these questions, Rohit Talwar has undertaken a major global business survey on the future of China’s Economy in which over 700 respondents from 60 countries across five continents provided detailed responses. This represents the first global study of its kind on such a scale – providing rich quantitative and qualitative insights into how attitudes and ambitions for the China market are evolving across continents. The FindingsThe report provides a truly global perspective on how businesses around the world see China developing and the impact it will have on their organisations. It highlights how different regions around the world vary in their outlooks, strategies and tactics for the China market. The study explores the impact people expect to see China having on everything from currency markets and investment flows through to product standards and promotion prospects for managers in multinational corporations.The report highlights how concerns and expectations differ between those operating in China and those looking in from outside. It takes a long term-perspective the proportion of firms’ staff, revenues and profits that will be accounted for by the China market and explores the potential for others to follow the lead of IBM’s procurement business in relocating their headquarters to China. The report also provides clear comparisons on how attitudes and expectations differ across business sectors and professions. Finally, the report highlights a number of critical questions for firms’ currently planning or evaluating their China strategies. Next Season Event    the future of the Gobal WorkplaceThursday, March 29, 2007Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Thomas R. Malthusstraat 5, 1066 JR Amsterdam  WithMandar Apte, Business Strategy – Competitive Intelligence Analyst, Shell Global Solutions International B.V.Workplace of the future – scenarios and trends – Views of a global citizen Andrew Kruseman Aretz, Partner, Human Resource Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers Belastingadviseurs N.V.Changing demographics of people flows around the World Jean-Claude Knebeler, Director of Foreign Trade, Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade, LuxembourgDoes off-shoring hold the key to success, especially for SME’s? Moderated by Hedda Pahlson-Moller, Managing Director, Omnisource International, Benelux Client Executive for Evalueserve Recommended Book The Global Workplace: International and Comparative Employment Law – Cases and Materialsby Roger Blanpain, Susan Bisom-Rapp, William R. Corbett, Hilary K. Josephs, Michael J. Zimmer With the forces of globalization as a backdrop, this pathbreaking casebook develops labor and employment law in the context of the national laws of nine countries important to the global economy — U.S., Canada, Mexico, U.K., Germany, France, China, Japan and India. National materials are contextualized by coverage of international labor standards promulgated by the International Labor Organization, as well as the principles that emerge from two regional trade arrangements — the North American Free Trade Agreement and the European Union — and TNC’s self-regulatory efforts. Instructor resources include an extensive teachers’ manual, powerpoint slides, and a website providing updates in this broad and fast-moving subject. Q&A with Nathalie Horbach about the future of Nuclear Energy   Nathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee Club of Amsterdam: Nathalie – you teach at the Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee and you follow the policies of nuclear energy at national and international level. There seems to be on one side a growing pro nuclear energy mood in Europe and on the other side a country like Germany follows a clear exit strategy. How is Europe going to deal with this situation? Europe leaves its member-states the option to choose which course they prefer to follow. However, it now explicitly recognizes the “necessity” of including nuclear energy in the energy mix, for reasons of security of supply and diversification of energy sources, and emission constraints. Due to liberalisation, increased competition and European integration of national energy markets, it seems that such an accommodating approach is both justified and effective. It leaves those member-states, such as France or Finland, with a vested interest and political support to ensure the necessary nuclear share within Europe, while others, such as Germany, may pursue other options in respect of renewables (wind) thereby adequately responding to public pressure. In this way, joint investments in and further development of nuclear energy will be channeled to dynamic and secure markets, which allow also for channeling of safeguards, security and safety activities in order to further improve and ensure safe, reliable and sensible use of nuclear energy in the future. However, due to potential risks involved in nuclear activities, it is important to improve transparency and fair competition (especially in safety and technology) worldwide instead of merely regional, while preventing protectionist approaches. Club of Amsterdam: Can you explain how nuclear energy relates to environmental issues? What role is it going to play in context of sustainable energy sources like wind energy etc.? Nuclear energy provides for a credible alternative source of electricity. It does not emit CO2 although, similar to renewable energy sources, emissions are not entirely zero. Due to the need to mitigate recognized risks, nuclear energy has the most secured and innovative energy fuel cycle, in respect of both strict international and national safety and liability regulation (polluter-pays), including internalization of such costs in the electricity price. It is for that reason that it can be considered to be increasingly ‘sustainable’. However, there remains the issue of waste, which includes also an intergenerational aspect, that could be both negative (imposing a potential ‘radioactive’ inheritance) and positive (potentiality of an essential future energy source in view of new technological reprocessing developments), even though not imposing society with unconfined and uncontrollable emissions. In addition, proliferation and terrorism risks continues to be a source of concern, resulting in political reservations with respect to nuclear energy. Nonetheless, nuclear energy seems in the mid- to long term to be a ‘sensible choice’ in view of all available options. It is a credible and necessary alternative, especially in combination with renewable sources of energy, to reduce carbon fuel dependency both to respond to climate change and environmental concerns as well as insecurities inherent (and recently increasing) in the global energy supply market. As such, the policy to no longer exclude nuclear energy as an option and even to increase reliance on nuclear power, could play an important mid-term role. On the one hand, it attracts further investment into developing safer and environmental neutral forms of generating nuclear electricity. Such is currently the focus of joint efforts in respect of nuclear fusion and ‘new generation’ nuclear facilities, which are constructed to be inherently safe, highly economical, proliferation resistant and produce minimal waste. On the other hand, it ensures an adequate electricity supply in the middle long-term, while reducing usage of carbon fuel as part of a global policy, and thus allows in the meantime increasing efforts and investments in further maturing other energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) in order to shift to a potential better sustainable option in the long-term. Club of Amsterdam: What do you expect from a dialogue between “old and new energy”? It is important to accumulate all fresh, innovative and diverging views, ideas and experience into a solid and new energy dialogue in order to extract important elements for a comprehensive and reality driven energy policy for the future. Often discussions in this field are constructed around narrow and obsolete premises, leaving aside a great potential that might result from a wider and more comprehensive approach based on an innovative method of guiding and channeling thoughts within a more ‘philosophical’ environment. This dialogue could encourage such a focus in search of consensus on new parameters, essential requirements and contemporary guiding principles appropriate to be incorporated in the preparation of future (European and other international) energy policies or strategies. Thank you Nathalie! Nathalie is a Thought Leader in the LAB on Old and New ENERGY Media LAB LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersLaurence Desarzens, urban communicator, beatmap.comMedia & communication specialist for lifestyle companiesPaul F.M.J. Verschure, ICREA research professor, Technology Department, University Pompeu FabraPsychologist. Specialist for wheeled and flying robots, interactive spaces and avatarsRicardo Baeza-Yates, Director, Yahoo! ResearchSpecialist for content and structure organization of a website and for blogs, vlogs and social networksRudy de Waele, Founder, M-trends.orgWireless communication expert Q&A with Simon Taylor about Climate and Energy Provision   Simon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder,  Global Witness Club of Amsterdam: Simon, you are a Director and Co-Founder of Global Witness, an organisation that exposes the corrupt exploitation of natural resources – amongst them oil and gas. What are your long-term strategies and how do plan to implement them? In 1993 together with two others, Charmian Gooch and Patrick Alley, I set up Global Witness to expose the corrupt exploitation of natural resources and international trade systems, to drive campaigns that end impunity, resource-linked conflict, and human rights and environmental abuses. Half of Global Witness’ work involves the compilation of first hand evidence and information about the situation on the ground in areas of conflict and instability through conducting investigations, field visits, and standard research. Such information is then compiled into hard-hitting reports which are subsequently taken to all key policy makers to ensure change. Half of our work is accurate information gathering – the other half strategically using such information to drive positive change. Right now, the existing modalities for natural resource extraction do not work. Details of such arrangements are usually shrouded in secrecy, and the provision of concessions almost always, certainly in the developing world, involves major corruption. Usually also in our experience, it is very hard to see the benefits being accrued to the country and its population – rather, the population is usually on the receiving end of a litany of abuse, a degradation of quality of life, and very often conflict. Such conditions tend to prevail for the masses, whilst a small elite benefit on a vast scale through the wholesale asset-stripping of state assets and the passing of the proceeds through the international banking system, with no questions asked. So, in summary, the existing international architecture which governs the roles of companies taking advantage of such conditions requires a major overhaul. Right now, shareholders, influential mafia-style middlemen, international banks, and elites within natural resource-exporting countries benefit on a massive scale, at the direct expense of their populations. You could even say that the populations of these countries subsidise these “profits” with their livelihoods, and very often with their lives. Global Witness has been exposing key examples of such business practices and the systems by which business activities operate for over a decade. We have been the key initiator of a number of international processes, including the Kimberley Process to combat conflict or blood diamonds, the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI), which came about as a UK Government response to the launching of the Publish What You Pay Campaign (PWYP), and the FLEG initiatives to address illegal logging. These processes are far from complete. In addition, we urgently require additional changes to this international trade and business architecture, otherwise companies and individuals will continue conduct business in areas of conflict and instability, without any accountability over the impact of their actions on local populations. Global Witness will continue to expose examples of bad business in any and all sectors which influence instability and conflict and which destroy serious efforts at development in such countries. Coming out of this work will be further deliverable strategies to address these issues. Club of Amsterdam: “Publish What You Pay” – conceived and co-launched by Global Witness – is a campaign that aims to help citizens of resource-rich developing countries hold their governments accountable for the management of revenues from the oil, gas and mining industries. Can you describe its impact? Publish What You Pay (PWYP) was launched to demand mandatory revenue disclosure from companies in the oil and gas, and mining sectors. Other sectors may be included later. This was because many such companies had been, and continue to be, involved in sleazy deals with producer country elites. These company activities have included the running of slush funds in tax havens for the purpose of bribery or delivery of “favours”, outright bribery, the payments of vast sums into personal accounts and even the payment for and delivery of weapons into conflict zones via company subsidiaries that do not officially exist. We have even come across a system where a major prominent international oil company deliberately rigged the debt of a producer country, such that it completely controlled the entire economy of the country – of course, to its favour. Of course, the other half of this coin is the role of elites in resource exporting countries who, as described above benefit from such activities. Before launching PWYP in 2002, Global Witness had already been involved in a 2 ½ year discussion with some of the more enlightened oil and gas companies to create the conditions for these companies to disclosure their payment data on a voluntary basis. In early 2001, BP announced that it intended to disclose such data in Angola – only to be faced with contract termination and being thrown out of the country. The circumstances around this incident ultimately demonstrated the limits to which oil companies, even if they wanted to, could go. Ultimately, going it alone would be disastrous for any company – not only this, but those companies which were fundamentally part of the problem had no intention of following such an example, and would be left to pick up contracts at the expense of the “good” companies. Such a voluntary process was thus completely inoperable! The launch of PWYP quite rapidly created a reaction from the UK Government, which launched the Extractive Industry Transparency Initiative (EITI), which brings together producer and consumer governments, a large percentage of the global key oil, gas and mining companies (there is a need to attract more of them), and civil society. The initiative is based on the premise that countries would volunteer to disclose the revenue streams they obtain from the extraction and export of oil and gas and mining products. Once a country steps up to the mark, all companies would be then be obliged to disclose the payments they make for the extraction of the resources in their concessions. This way, comparison can be made between what companies say they pay, and what countries say they receive. Any discrepancy could then be independently assessed, with civil society being intimately involved in the process. The result would be a level of disclosure of the vast rents which accrue as a consequence of natural resource extraction (in particular, oil and gas) which hitherto has not been available. This would create an absolute minimum, but vitally important, first step towards creating accountable governance over such revenues in order that they might actually benefit the citizens of the countries concerned. There are various areas of concern with these arrangements thus far. The most important of these is that it remains very hard to imagine the likes of President dos Santos of Angola, or President Obiang of Equatorial Guinea (there are many others who could be added to this list) actually volunteering their countries to implement EITI. The elites who call the shots in both these countries are amongst the pre-eminent kleptocrats in the world today, and they have no interest in being held accountable for the expenditure of their State’s revenues, which are currently making them very rich. Having said that, there is some delivery coming from EITI due to the significant implementation of EITI by Nigeria and Azerbaijan – both places where it would have been hard to believe this was possible only a short while ago. These are significant steps forward, but it is important to understand that this is a work in progress and we need to see where the initiative goes over the next year to year and half, whilst also continuing with efforts to deliver mandatory disclosure mechanisms in a variety of jurisdictions. PWYP is now a coalition of 300+ civil society organizations across all continents of the world. It is an extremely effective and efficient coalition and is represented on the International Advisory board of EITI, such that civil society plays a key role in the evolution and delivery of EITI. The PWYP coalition is intimately involved in a global push to deliver parallel mandatory solutions to revenue transparency, premised on the idea that we need to see accountability over the management of resource revenues by both the elites who control the expenditure, and the companies who do the paying. The consequence of this global engagement is that the idea of revenue transparency in all countries for natural resource extraction has moved from an issue where we were initially laughed at by company and government officials as being unrealistic, to a situation today where it is in the mainstream, and where the key largest oil, gas and mining companies, together with an array of producer and consumer countries have agreed to the delivery of revenue transparency. We now need to keep up the pressure and see where this process goes. Club of Amsterdam: The way we use energy and we treat the environment are closely connected. What do you expect from a dialogue between “old and new energy” and more specifically: What role should nuclear energy play? We are rapidly heading to a global crunch-time regarding the provision and utilisation of energy. This “crunch” primarily relates to two major global crises, which if not addressed are likely to precipitate a vast array of additional crises, seriously threatening any future prosperity, let alone the prospect of significant development across the world’s least developed countries. I am referring here to the nexus of the climate and energy provision crises – each in their own right seemingly vast imponderable problems, but which when taken together create a problem the scale of which humanity has not yet experienced. We are familiar with many of the serious implications of impending climate change, and so I will not go into any detail here. However, thus far the political response to this situation is massively inadequate to the task. We see political posturing, and at best now at least the clarion call for action on the basis that this is a serious matter for humanity to address. But then, almost in the same breath, the “solutions” put forward are so inadequate that one might be tempted to laugh, if the implications were not so serious. Simultaneously, and neatly compartmentalised into another section of governments’ thinking, we also hear the call for energy security. Whilst it is of course obvious from any state’s perspective, to secure stable supplies of essential energy, it is clear that for the main part such calls relate to securing ever more supplies of oil and gas – the very things we should be avoiding if we wish to slow down and ultimately prevent dangerous climate change. The consequence of this shallow thinking is that the entire global energy provision system of financial, diplomatic and corporate operations remains geared to business as usual. As if this was not bad enough from a climate change point of view, we are rapidly heading towards (if we have not got there already!) a peak in global conventional oil production. Gas is not too far behind. The consequence of global conventional oil peaking is not that we run out of oil – oil will still be available for a long time to come. What it does mean once this peak in output is reached is that global oil production will no longer be able to match demand. Furthermore, the lines on any graph of production versus demand are likely to separate very quickly. All this leads ultimately, and within very few years, into very dangerous territory: At best it will completely undermine the global governance agenda, leading to the end of such initiatives as EITI, with companies and governments rushing to the bottom to outbid one another in a downward spiral of dirty deals. At worst, within very few years after a peak of oil output, we face the prospect of global powers – nuclear armed powers – facing off against each other in an increasingly aggressive posture for essential energy resources. Following on from the climate crisis disaster, political thinking around the provision of energy represents a second massive abrogation of responsibility by our political leadership. Given the pre-eminent role oil plays right across the global economy, it is not just the prospect of military confrontation we should be worried about. Indeed the economic implications could be a disaster on the scale of 1929 all over again. There are of course no easy solutions to this situation. However, what is clearly required is the kind of global leadership and international cooperation on the scale we have seldom seen in the past. The output needs to be nothing short of a global revolution around the way in which we generate and utilize energy and its subsequent equitable availability. Nothing less will suffice. Whilst this might sound dismissive, nuclear power would seem to be an unnecessary distraction which does nothing to address either our overall energy requirements, or the overall use of carbon intensive energy sources – and that is before we consider the implications of the complete lack of adequate waste management, the propensity for increased nuclear use to create its own security of supply problem, the appalling overall record of the industry when it comes to onsite safety and maintenance, and the increased risks of nuclear proliferation and the potential for terrorism. In terms of the dialogue, I would hope we can discuss some of these issues further during the  LAB on Old and New ENERGY. Thank you Simon! Shop of the Future Adidas “mi Innovation Center” As the number one sports brand in Europe and the leading brand in football, tennis and all sports apparel categories, athletes will find what they need for their training needs and everything in between. Designed as more than a sports store, the adidas Sport Performance store will further demonstrate adidas’ rich tradition in innovation by launching the first Mi Innovation Center, featuring a high-tech customization process that gives consumers the same treatment as elite level athletes, providing them foot scanning analysis, an “experienced personal partner” recommendation based on their fit and performance needs and customization options allowing them to design and personalize their footwear based on their personal style. The center will feature industry leading technologies, which adidas helped create, including a gesture navigated design and virtual mirror. The brand expects to welcome more than 150,000 visitors before the end of the year, including 70% tourists. This new Parisian space will regularly feature the French and international athletes who are adidas ambassadors. “The brand’s approach to wholly owned stores is complementary to the usual distribution network (specialised stores). The exhaustive offer at this adidas Store will allow consumers to discover the breadth of our ranges and share a real brand experience.” Adds André Maestrini Chief Executive adidas France. Agenda Our Season Events for 2006/2007 are on Thursdays: the future of Global WorkplaceMarch 29, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of SuccessApril 26, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of TourismMay 31, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 Taste of DiversityJune 28, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 LAB in Girona near Barcelona, Spain, moderated by Humberto Schwab:  LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceMay 29 & 30, 2007 Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club   Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, March 2007, Issue 84

Content Impact of Globalisation on daily working lifeEnergy LABNews about the future of the Global WorkplaceClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the Future“We Media”Event about the future of Global WorkplaceRecommended BookSo, how is life in 2020? The future of EuropeLAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceThe Future of the WebShop of the Future Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.“Off-shoring is to most European politicians what garlic is to vampires: the mere mention of it sends them into convulsions. It is associated in public opinion to serious ills ranging from wage dumping and precarious social security networks to child-labour and slavery. Governments in mature economies face a dilemma: they need to foster the competitiveness of their companies while working to preserve certain social standards, at home and abroad. Moving business processes abroad may increase competitiveness but creates social problems. But isn’t there a middle way? Must off-shoring/outsourcing necessarily be a zero-sum game? Or does it hold the key to success, especially for SME’s, on tomorrow’s ever more competitive global marketplace?” – Jean-Claude Knebeler, Director of Foreign Trade, Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade, Luxembourg Jean-Claude Knebeleris a speaker at our event aboutthe future of the Global Workplace on March 29:And check out our labs in Girona near Barcelona: LAB on Old and New ENERGY – April 17&18 LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience– May 29&30 Impact of Globalisation on daily working life   By Frank Brüggemann, MBA; Dipl.-Ing., Consultant 1 Introduction 1.1 BackgroundA lot of companies expand their business into international markets. In most cases, the motive is a search for improved cost efficiency or looking for the chance to expand and achieve growth. Today, companies are able to respond rapidly to many foreign sales opportunities; this is made easier by technological, governmental, and institutional developments. They can shift production quickly among countries because of their experience in foreign markets and because goods can be transported efficiently from most places. Companies can also distribute component and/or product manufacturing among countries to take advantage of cost differences. Once a few companies respond to foreign market and production opportunities, others may see that there are foreign opportunities for them as well. All this is a part of the so called “globalisation”. In operating globally, a company has to consider what the company will seek to do and become over the long term (mission), its specific performance targets to fulfil its mission (objectives), and the means to reach its targets (strategy). There are many factors that may influence companies to succeed in doing global business and remaining competitive in the global arena. Many companies are riding on the wave of globalisation; some of their employees might get tangled up in the flow of the wave with more and more personal involvement as the borders between the working day and the private life become “grey”. They are challenged with a multi-lingual working environment, exposure to different cultures, an increase of pace and stress, they must adapt in order to succeed. The job profiles and working conditions of an international company are nowadays aligned to totally different factors as possibly to a decade ago. The markets are not limited anymore to the exclusive region in which the company is based, but to the whole world. Additionally, technological developments have promoted a flood of communications on every level of economy which helped to ease the way of globalisation. 7 Conclusion – Part 4 Is the daily work life affected by the process of globalisation, which is influencing the attitudes of the company or the employers? Generally yes, it is. We have seen that this company and the whole economy changed their orientation on the market and thus their attitudes and policies to their employees. Tremendous revolutions took place in the plot of the working life of an employee in contrast to decades before “globalisation” made pace. The examined company moves in a global environment. The requirements to do so for this company no longer exclusively refer to their core competencies and activities, e.g. within the production goods range from purely a technological view. But include far more interdisciplinary entwinements (labour unions; wage policies; etc.), which the company and the employee must go around. Having observed items the employee depends on, tendencies in the answers such as the sorrows and insecurities the employees have because of changed work conditions, we can conclude there are several interactions between the economy, the society, the enterprises and the single employee, but there is only a little focus on the impacts on this little “cog-wheel” – the employee and his private life. Even in literature there are only a few scientists who researched in this environment. Scientists on the subject of globalisation like GOSHAL, BARTLETT and YIP are mainly focused on the economy and the enterprises – not on the humans “behind all this”. So, there is a wide field for investigation on how our society, and the individuals in it, are going to change in the coming years with regard to ongoing globalisation. The major difficulty during globalisation is, like in material existing communism, the human being. It is not foreseeable how an employee is acting in a company that is going global. Because of this each person may think egoistically first, and also company heads provide first for their company and their profit. And furthermore each state puts first its own interests at expense of the other. A good example of this is the European Union, in which only important resolutions come to tough negotiations. No technical invention, no political development, and no social change – automatically leads exclusively to change for the better or worse for everyone. No well intended ideology or policy will bring eternal peace. Wealth for all is not realisable, neither by economic systems, nor by globalisation. Every employee in a global company is affected by globalisation – even though everyone is not yet fully aware of how it currently functions.So, he must try to understand what is happening and why and he must regard globalisation as a personal challenge and take personal action. Finally in such a work situation he will and has to pay attention more than ever to his job and his personal life, in order to be able to exist in a global job market. In fact, the “Impact of globalisation on daily working life” is there. The company passes on the pressure of globalisation to each and everyone of the workforce – it has to. But first of all globalisation is neutral. It holds risks and even chances for a nation state, a corporation and finally also for the single employee even in his daily job situation. Globalisation is furthermore not a natural phenomenon. It is sought and made by people. That is why every single employee can also change, shape and guide it in the right direction. What counts is what the single employee makes out of the new possibilities. As far as the company is globalised, or better spoken, as far as the company is determined by the characteristics of globalisation, e.g. entering into new cultures, as far are the employees forced to adapt to those habits, just as being highly flexible also goes with it. Deficits in qualifications and flexibility of the workforce could destabilise the position of the company in a global “arena”. Consequently the company cannot make use of the workforce in a way it would like to do, to fulfil the requirements in global markets. The needs of workers themselves have changed. There is more and more talk about the need to balance work and family or personal responsibilities. The labour force has become increasingly diversified, and this means that ongoing training has become a necessity. Moreover, workers want a greater say in workplace organisation. Despite this movement toward globalisation, there remain significant environmental differences between countries and regions. Managers in an international business must be sensitive to these differences and also must adapt to the appropriate policies and strategies for dealing with them (YIP, 1995). Significant aspects of globalisation with regard to influences and altering processes in the daily job are e.g. the trend to shift toward more highly skilled jobs, as it is shown in Table 2 and the trend that production and jobs have progressively shifted from the goods sector to the service sector, so that knowledge-based industries have grown. That means more and more occupations take place in the office and not as much in a workshop as before. But all the evidence is that these changes would be taking place – not necessarily at the same pace – with or without globalisation. In fact, globalisation is currently making this process easier and maybe less costly to the economy as a whole by bringing the benefits of capital flows, technological innovations, and lower import prices. Thus, all the challenges and changes an employee has, could not have been avoided. Economic growth, employment and living standards are all higher than they would be in a closed economy, so the economy as a whole will of course flourish from policies that embrace globalisation by generally promoting an open economy [8], and coincidently by undertaking of the industry and the government to focus on education and vocational training, to make sure that workers and employees have the opportunity to acquire the right skills in dynamic changing work environments. The philosophy of world companies such as Sony, Coca Cola or McDonald’s “to produce and sell theirs products on the whole world” became generally accepted more and more: Today liberty is defined as boundless consumption. The problem of this variant from free-market economy is however: If there is only the market, everything and everyone becomes the commodity. Companies with ten thousand employees are sold back and forth several times in one year. The individuals fate apparently of no interest, as long as the dividend is good. Are there any possibilities to defend oneself against this? Numerous other socio-economic factors currently affect the workplace and the people in it. The rapid pace of technological change is transforming the workplace and the job experience. It is facilitating the growth of various non-standard forms of work, especially home work, telework and part-time work. […] The full report can be read here Energy LAB LAB on Old and New ENERGYAn immersed experience of a Do-Tank April 17 & 18, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersNathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of DundeeNuclear policies specialistSimon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder, Global WitnessEnvironmental issuesChristof van Agt, International Energy AgencySustainable energy specialistPaul Holister, Nanotechnology & Energy News about the future of the Global Workplace Predictions for the sourcing market in 2007by David Skinner, John F. Delaney, Nigel Colin Harris Stamp A continued trend towards smaller, shorter deals as clients focus on individual processes instead of large, complex institutional transactions; Increased reliance on global service delivery models; Data privacy and data security issues will become ever more important to outsourcing customers; Increased offshoring to Asia as clients become more confident about doing business in China; The outcome of the 2006 U.S. midterm elections may lead to a revival of anti-outsourcing sentiment in the United States; and, Large Japanese companies will begin to adopt recognizable elements of IT outsourcing and BPO models into their traditional contract partnering modes of operation. Trade and Employment This study is the outcome of collaborative research between the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the International Labour Office (ILO). It ddresses an issue that is of concern to both organizations: the relationship between trade and employment. On the basis of an overview of the existing academic literature, the study provides an impartial view of what can be said, and with what degree of confidence, on the elationship between trade and employment, an often contentious issue of public debate. Its focus is on the connections between trade policies, and labour and social policies and it will be useful for all those who are interested in this debate: academics and policy-makers, workers and employers, trade and labour specialists. download the report Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam blog March 20:  The Future of the WebMarch 13:  “We Media”March 05:  Climate and Energy ProvisionFebruary 27:  The future of Nuclear EnergyFebruary 21:  Nanotechnology & EnergyFebruary 12:  Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices? News about the Future Biologically Based Quantum Computers? DNA, Proteins, And Peptides Could Help Construct New Nanoscale Electronicsby Science Daily The U.S. Department of Defense is awarding a team of nine professors from six universities $6 million over five years to exploit precise biological assembly for the study of quantum physics in nanoparticle arrays. This research will help to produce a fundamental understanding of quantum electronic systems, which could impact the way future electronics are created. “By exploiting biology to precisely control size, spacing, composition, and coupling in the arrays, we will be able to examine the effects of electronic, magnetic, and optical interactions at much smaller dimensions than in the past. This will open a wide range of unbroken ground for exploring new physics,” said electrical and computer engineering professor Richard A. Kiehl of the University of Minnesota, who is leading the effort. 2006 European Innovation Scoreboard The study concludes that innovation performance in the EU varies considerably between Member States. There are a number of “innovation leaders” in Europe, including Sweden, Denmark, Germany and Finland, as well as many “innovation followers” where innovation performance is generally satisfactory. However, more than half the Member States are found to be lagging behind. This includes many new Member States, most of which are in the process of catching up with the leading countries. However, there are also some trailing countries where more improvements are needed, including two two of the largest Member States.The report furthermore suggests that there is a process of convergence in the innovation performance of Member States. This means that catching-up countries are closing the gap with the EU average and both country groups of innovation leaders and followers are experiencing a relative decline in their innovation lead. “We Media”   Q&A with Rudy de Waele, Founder, M-trends.org Rudy is a Thought Leader in the LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, Spain Club of Amsterdam: Rudy, you are a leading consultant to the wireless industry. This industry is developing very fast. In most cases I get the impression that products once reaching the customers are already outdated. How does the mobile industry relate their product development to “quality of life”? This is indeed an industry where products have an average ‘lifecycle’ of approximately 2 years. Device manufacturers are designing products to different target customers, with the flashy, shiny, trendy products as to be used by the opinion leaders, early birds/first movers and trendsetters first, and while learning from their experience, the manufactures designs new and improved products that will fit the mass market demand in 1 or 2 years. “Quality of life” is very important in mobile and wireless since every new generation of phones adds something new to satisfy the demands of the consumer and meet the expectations set by the marketing of the products. Don’t forget that the mobile phone is the most sold ‘aspirational gadget’ of all times. For example the new data services, all multimedia (camera, images, video, mp3player, webbrowser, etc.) integrated now in nearly any standard phone, was just unimaginable only a couple of years ago. Note that a typical high-end smartphone can match the performance of a mid-range laptop computer only five years ago! Nokia don’t call them phones any longer but multimedia computers… But these new gadgets might bring also new addictions, away from TV or PC to smaller screens such as mobile devices. Club of Amsterdam: New technologies are getting more hybrid. Virtual worlds merge with the “real” world and in this context the user experience is also changing. How does the future consumer create his “personal” media experience? The youth of today wants to stay connected all the time with their network of friends, news, entertainment and events around through the PC or the mobile… the universal sense of belonging has translated itself in the need to ‘stay connected’ or ‘always on’. In 5 years time, my ‘wearable media’ (MyMedia) device will be able to do a lot more things then what is currently possible, it will have the capacity to store entire movies in good quality, my whole music catalogue, photo album, design- and project works just on my mobile device, to take that with me wherever I’ll be, to connect it to other devices and (bigger) screens and enjoy that media together with friends. There will be a lot more possibilities for the user to be ‘always on’ connected to the internet, the news, entertainment and stay connected to my social networks connected with my friends and exchange more content. So, pretty soon, anyone will have the tools and the possibility to create his own media channel, through audio or video. An explosion of user-media is yet still to come. The virtual will more easily connect with the physical world through taggable objects, once tagged with a phone through image recognition, qr-codes or 2D codes, will bring you directly to some added-value or complementary content or information on the subject tagged. Club of Amsterdam: What do you expect from a dialogue about media and human experience? Raise a set of questions that are essential to create a good human experience in relation to the rapid technology developments of today. To think and discuss about those questions and to put forward some essential issues towards the industry. What is the influence of all this media to our children, society in general? What can be done to improve this? How can we improve our learning systems using media annd technology to make sure our children can rapidly change/adapt to deal with the future changes? Who will control global digital access in the future? What about universal access? Multilingualism? Mobile learning systems? Media conglomerations? Is this really we media or their media? How to organize the overflow of information coming to us? Wikipedia example? Who owns what kind of information and who can manipulate what?Thank you Rudy! Next Season Event    the future of the Gobal WorkplaceThursday, March 29, 2007Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: PricewaterhouseCoopers, Thomas R. Malthusstraat 5, 1066 JR Amsterdam WithMandar Apte, Business Strategy – Competitive Intelligence Analyst, Shell Global Solutions International B.V.Workplace of the future – scenarios and trends – Views of a global citizen Andrew Kruseman Aretz, Partner, Human Resource Services, PricewaterhouseCoopers Belastingadviseurs N.V.Changing demographics of people flows around the World Jean-Claude Knebeler, Director of Foreign Trade, Ministry of the Economy and Foreign Trade, LuxembourgDoes off-shoring hold the key to success, especially for SME’s? Moderated by Hedda Pahlson-Moller, Managing Director, Omnisource International, Benelux Client Executive for Evalueserve Recommended Book Intercultural Communication in the Global Workplaceby Iris Varner, Linda Beamer Intercultural Communication in the Global Workplace continues to be a vital reference for global business professionals. This new edition features updated discussions on the impact of globalization and technology in business communication, expanded treatment of ethics issues, increased discussion of world religions (particularly the role of Islam), and more short cases for improved ease of reading and comprehension. So, how is life in 2020? The future of Europe Media LAB LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersLaurence Desarzens, urban communicator, beatmap.comMedia & communication specialist for lifestyle companiesPaul F.M.J. Verschure, ICREA research professor, Technology Department, University Pompeu FabraPsychologist. Specialist for wheeled and flying robots, interactive spaces and avatarsRicardo Baeza-Yates, Director, Yahoo! ResearchSpecialist for content and structure organization of a website and for blogs, vlogs and social networksRudy de Waele, Founder, M-trends.orgWireless communication expert The Future of the Web   Q&A with Ricardo Baeza-Yates, Director and Roelof Van Zwol, Senior Researcher, Yahoo! Research Barcelona Ricardo is a Thought Leader in the LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, Spain Club of Amsterdam: Ricardo and Roelof – the Internet is constantly changing and offering new possibilities like Web 2.0. Social networks will benefit from these new features. Can you give us an idea how human interaction will improve? Social networks will allows for direct communication with users with similar backgrounds, or interests, or with experts in a certain area.For example, inside Yahoo! we use a social network tool that is the perfect example, where given a few keywords, the experts in any topic like “social media” can instantly be found. It uses not only the self-descriptive tags provided by a user, but also the tags that other people used to tag fellow colleagues. We are using it on a regular basis, and it is especially useful for checking one’s background, or for finding the person with the right expertise within the Yahoo! company, within seconds. Thus at a professional level it already improves the efficiency. When it comes to social networks on the Web, it also allows for the formation of large online communities that share common interests, and allow a user to share, and acquire knowledge. One recent development in the area of social networks, called second life, allows users and companies to start a new and perhaps more exciting life on the Internet. Club of Amsterdam: Knowledge is essential for further development and innovation. Collaborative media will give us a world of new opportunities. Can you describe a future scenario? The second life example already gives you a hint of where the “Future of the Web” will go. Last year, Yahoo! Research has organized a workshop under this title in Barcelona focused in Web Search, when the lab was opened. One future scenario will be that you are commuting to work, and would like to know which route to take, in order to avoid traffic jams, or that it might be better to work form home, due to expected traffic in the evening. You ask this question, and instantaneously receive audiovisual information from either validated sources, like traffic cameras, or from other commuters that have found themselves stuck in a traffic jam. Club of Amsterdam: What are new developments in social media? We already see that the dialog between users and media allows for new forms of interaction between users and their computers. Flickr, the Yahoo! photo sharing site, allows users to upload, and tag their photos online for sharing with their friends or to directly show them to a large community. When another user is exploring the Flickr photo database, he or she can provide additional tags, a photo rating, or give comments on the image. This allows for the retrieval of high quality and interesting photos at a scale that was not envisioned possible before. Currently, the Flickr site contains hundreds of millions of photos that are hand tagged by users, while the current state of the art in content-based image retrieval (CBIR) is not yet ready to handle this scale. This does not mean that existing research in this area has become obsolete. On the contrary, the combination ofCBIR with social media should allow for even better sharing and retrieval services in the future. New forms of media are appearing on a daily basis, and it is next to impossible to track all the new developments in this area. It is however sure that the online presence of users will increase and that the role of media in this perspective is significant. It will allow for direct interactive communication through rich media channels in a fast changing world.Thank you Ricardo and Roelof! Shop of the Future Adidas “mi Innovation Center” As the number one sports brand in Europe and the leading brand in football, tennis and all sports apparel categories, athletes will find what they need for their training needs and everything in between. Designed as more than a sports store, the adidas Sport Performance store will further demonstrate adidas’ rich tradition in innovation by launching the first Mi Innovation Center, featuring a high-tech customization process that gives consumers the same treatment as elite level athletes, providing them foot scanning analysis, an “experienced personal partner” recommendation based on their fit and performance needs and customization options allowing them to design and personalize their footwear based on their personal style. The center will feature industry leading technologies, which adidas helped create, including a gesture navigated design and virtual mirror. The brand expects to welcome more than 150,000 visitors before the end of the year, including 70% tourists. This new Parisian space will regularly feature the French and international athletes who are adidas ambassadors. “The brand’s approach to wholly owned stores is complementary to the usual distribution network (specialised stores). The exhaustive offer at this adidas Store will allow consumers to discover the breadth of our ranges and share a real brand experience.” Adds André Maestrini Chief Executive adidas France. Agenda Our Season Events for 2006/2007 are on Thursdays: the future of Global WorkplaceMarch 29, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of SuccessApril 26, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of TourismMay 31, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 Taste of DiversityJune 28, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 LAB in Girona near Barcelona, Spain, moderated by Humberto Schwab:  LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceMay 29 & 30, 2007 Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club   Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …

- Club of Amsterdam

Club of Amsterdam Journal, April 2007, Issue 85

Content Turning Your Wishes Into RealityEnergy LABNews about the future of SuccessClub of Amsterdam blogNews about the FutureLifestyle and New MediaEvent about the future of SuccessRecommended BookDongtan Eco CityLAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceFuturist (definition): (Twelve) Types of Futures ThinkingMedia goes PULL Agenda Club of Amsterdam SearchSubmit your articleContactSubscribe Welcome to the  Club of Amsterdam Journal.” All you need in this life is ignorance and confidence, and then success is sure.” – Mark Twain “I dread success. To have succeeded is to have finished one’s business on earth, like the male spider, who is killed by the female the moment he has succeeded in his courtship. I like a state of continual becoming, with a goal in front and not behind.” – George Bernard Shaw“When you get out of bed in the morning and think about what you want to do that day, ask yourself whether you’d like others to read about it on the front page of tomorrow’s newspaper. You’ll probably do things a little differently if you keep that in mind.” – Warren BuffettFelix Bopp, editor-in-chiefJoin our next Season Event about the future of Success on April 26.:And check out our labs in Girona near Barcelona: LAB on Old and New ENERGY – April 17&18 LAB on MEDIA and Human Experience– May 29&30 Turning Your Wishes Into Reality   Nisandeh Neta, Founder, Open Circles Academy about his book Elements of Success Nisendeh is a presenter at our next Season Event about the future of Success What does being successful mean to you? Does it mean being financially set for life… having loving, nurturing relationships with your partner, family and friends… finding spiritual fulfillment? We may all have different ideas of what success is but there’s one thing we all agree on – we want it!Yet for many of us, success remains elusive.If only success was something you could view as tangible: something you could take off a shelf and make happen…Now you can.Take a moment and imagine that life is a well-appointed kitchen. All of the appliances and tools are in place. Every ingredient you need is at hand. You can cook absolutely anything you desire.All you need are a few simple recipes.Elements of Success, a new home-study course invites you into the “kitchen” where you’ll discover how to create the life you’ve always wanted. More than simply a how-to course, the easy-to-follow, 200-page hands-on book and CD set puts you directly in the mix as you apply all that you learn towards making your life truly successful.Elements of Success leads you step-by-step through:The myths and mistakes that hinder success. Learn to identify personal pitfalls that have blocked your success in the past and discover how to overcome them. The power of the mind. Every result in life starts as a thought. Elements of Success teaches you how to use your mind to focus energy on attracting any result you wish for. The importance of taking personal responsibility for your actions and thoughts. Find out how to move out of the victim role and reclaim your power as a creator.The power of visualization in creating reality. Learn precise and powerful techniques for manifesting your dreams into reality, receiving answers to life questions and more. The power of acknowledgement and completion. This rarely talked about secret, when used the right way, puts you in a positive spiral. You will get more and more energized with each result you create. What failure really is. As soon as you understand the true meaning of failure, all of the negative connotations and feelings you attach to not getting the result you planned will disappear. How to create instant results by moving beyond barriers of beliefs. Elements of Success offers three simple ways to move beyond what you believe is impossible to create instant transformation. The difference between “wanting” something and “being willing to have” it. Learn the difference between the passive, childish position of “I want chocolate! I want! I want!” and the mature, active, willing position of “I am willing to do whatever it takes, to let go of whatever is not supporting me and to become whoever I need to be in order to fulfill my potential.”And so much more …Elements of Success is divided into three easy-to-digest parts. The first part, Prepping the Kitchen, gets success chefs ready for the creative process. It reveals why the mind is your most important tool and demonstrates how to keep it sharp and ready to carve out success.Once the kitchen has been prepared, you are ready to begin creating success. In the second part of the book, Cooking Success, the SPICE creative cycle is explained. Each creative cycle is made up of these elements:SourcePictureImplementationConsequence andEnrichment.SPICE describes how you’ve created success in the past and what you need to do to create success in the future in any area of your life.SPICE begins with a Source. The source is the inspiration that kicks off the whole creative cycle — the fire that heats the oven.Once inspiration has taken hold, you begin to feed the fire and allow the heat to build. You start to Picture what you want to achieve. You begin to see what success will look like, to savor what it will smell like, to imagine what it will taste like.Once the excitement and enthusiasm take hold, you’re ready to take action – to actually put the ingredients together and Implement your ideas. Your action, in turn, will lead to a Consequence, the result of what you have chosen to create and how you have prepared it.Of course, not every consequence will be the exact one you planned. When you achieve a goal only to realize it’s not what you want, you can either learn a lesson from it, or begin making changes to Enrich the result you’ve created until it’s closer to the one you expected.That enrichment process is often the start of a whole new creative cycle.The heart of the book is in the third part, Serving The Meal. Here, you will “attend” a powerful yet simple six-week hands-on “cooking school,” on two CDs, that will lead you from simply wishing for success to ultimate satisfaction.The techniques on the CDs will help you alter your conscious and unconscious mental patterns, allowing you to rise above current limitations to achieve your longed-for goals. As a finishing touch, the book also includes proven techniques for both relaxation and reinvigoration, and special “success recipes” geared towards different results.You can find the book  click here Info.nl is the supporter of our next eventabout  the future of Success Energy LAB LAB on Old and New ENERGYAn immersed experience of a Do-Tank April 17 & 18, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersNathalie Horbach, Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy, University of DundeeNuclear policies specialistSimon Taylor, Director and Co-Founder, Global WitnessEnvironmental issuesChristof van Agt, International Energy AgencySustainable energy specialistPaul Holister, Nanotechnology & Energy News about the future of Success Positive Psychology News Daily The Positive Psychology News website is authored by graduates of the MAPP (Master of Applied Positive Psychology) program at UPenn. Positive Psychology News writes about psychology, sociology, neurobiology, computer science, and positive psychology. The Psychology Of Success by Joe Love Business knowledge and skills are not the only keys to success. To be successful, you also need to master the psychological skills that will help you to be satisfied and fulfilled, and thus more effective in your work. Knowing how to manage your mind, and understanding how to deal with lack of confidence, stress, anxiety, and depression, is as important as knowing how to handle the strategic and organizational challenges of your business. Success means being fair to yourself and to others. You must learn to be assertive but fair. Assertiveness is based on the idea that your needs, wants, and feelings are neither more nor less important than those of other people. You have the right to make claims for yourself clearly and honestly, as long as those claims don’t impinge on the rights of others.[…] Club of Amsterdam blog Club of Amsterdam bloghttp://clubofamsterdam.blogspot.com April 4:  Lifestyle and New MediaMarch 20:  The Future of the WebMarch 13:  “We Media”March 05:  Climate and Energy ProvisionFebruary 27:  The future of Nuclear EnergyFebruary 21:  Nanotechnology & EnergyFebruary 12:  Innovation – a hybrid connection between old practices? News about the Future The future of booksby the Economist In secret locations and using secret methods, human beings are scanning lots and lots of books for Google, the world’s largest web-search company. Google will not divulge exact numbers, but Daniel Clancy, the project’s lead engineer, gives enough guidance for an educated guess: Google’s contract with one university library, Berkeley’s, stipulates that it must digitise 3,000 books a day. […] What about all the genres of books that fill a different human need? Certainly, some types of fiction–novels as well as novellas–are also likely to migrate online and to cease being books. Many fantasy fans, for example, have already put aside books and logged on to “virtual worlds” such as “World of Warcraft”, in which muscular heroes and heroines get together to slay dragons and such like. Sciencefiction may go the same way, and is arguably already being created by “residents” of online worlds such as Second Life. […] But even anthologies of short stories and poems, like longer novels, are unlikely to disappear. People want to be guided by others. They also want media suitable for unhurried reading in beds and bathtubs and on beaches. Above all, they wantpaper books for what digitisation is revealing them to be. Books are not primarilyartefacts, nor necessarily vehicles for ideas. Rather, as Seth Godin – a blogger and author of eight books on marketing – puts it, they are “souvenirs of the way we felt” when we read something. That is something that people are likely to go on buying. Assistive robot adapts to people and new places MIT researchers are working on a very early version of an intelligent, robotic helper – a humanoid called Domo who grasps objects and places them on shelves or counters. A robot like Domo could help elderly or wheelchair-bound people with simple household tasks like putting away dishes. Other potential applications include agriculture, space travel and assisting workers on an assembly line, says Aaron Edsinger, an MIT postdoctoral associate who has been working on Domo for the last three years.There are now plenty of robots doing manual work on factory assembly lines, but those machines follow a script and can’t learn to adapt to new situations, as Domo can, said Rodney Brooks, director of MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. Lifestyle and New Media   Q&A with Laurence Desarzens, urban communicator, beatmap.comMedia & communication specialist for lifestyle companies Laurence is a Thought Leader in the LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, Spain Club of Amsterdam: Laurence – you are in close touch with youth culture – this from a cultural as well as commercial involvement. Lifestyle is more and more the defining factor for new media. Can you give us some examples how young “urban tribes” are dealing with communication and media at large? First I think we should talk once about the definition of what is “youth” today. Maybe “youth” is less related to an age group and more to a lifestyle. Keeping this in mind … Using new media (which essentially are tools) need time, that’s certainly why it influence your lifestyle. And for sure if you are using these tools you keep in contact to your network and group. That’s what allows you to learn, share and exchange, work, be cool ;). You use mobile, internet, constantly and everywhere, you communicate constantly. So everything influences everything to give birth to colourful, and creative trends in all fields, who constantly evolve. These trends can also be scary and dark off course. It’s the people and not the media who are defining the content. Or is it really 😉 Youth tribes fluidly use all means of new technologies to surf what can be of their very specific interests NOW. They double-check validity, relevance and credibility with their friends faster than the speed of light. They copy, they fake, because the tools are theirs to do so, and why not. They use what is the most convenient for them to communicate … internet, gsm, whatever. You will see website about specific cultures interests: skate, sneaker culture, music, who can bloom in a very short time. You see trends come, go and come back, and mutate. If you take people in hip hop music, you have young producers doing beats, exchanging and working cross borders. Influenced by anything. So they use all these tools whatever they are … AIM, Skype you name it. In hip hop and really in all subcultures it’s simply amazing to see all these mosaic of ideas, tastes and styles developing and exchanging via new media. If main media are not interested they create their own. Look at record label like Stones Throw for example … or Ninja Tune … They build shops, platform, and post. There are many examples besides my space and you tube. Sneakerplay.com is a sneaker community for example, or the fashion blogs who are now giving “the ton” somewhere to print media such as Vogue, it’s “le monde a l’envers”. Club of Amsterdam: Improved bandwidth allows to distribute content through Internet and wireless close to dvd quality. This means a radical change of the media landscape. Can you give us examples of “everybody can be a tv station” etc? What defines a TV station? If it’s about making programs at regular time, with specific subjects, selected and where the information is provided via a journalistic approach, I think it then to have more bandwidth doesn’t necessarily facilitate. But if it’s posting moving images about specific subjects then certainly with bandwidth availability we see an explosion of the worst and the best DIY TV online. Like TV on demand. In wide interests website like www.youporn.com show what is happening when bandwidth and tools are available to everyone … I let you guess, sex definitely is the huge potential for online TV … on the other hand of the ethical spectrum you have a site like www.godtube.com which is for the Christians community. For entertainment www.heavy.com was there pretty early on, and can be seen as TV on demand with lot of ads, special shows, like TV on demand again. Many subcultures used the bandwidth available to document their products, lifestyles or visions, from skateboard to graffiti, and off course hip hop . That’s what’s interesting regarding my own interests. But is it TV or not? Club of Amsterdam: What do you expect from a dialogue about media and human experience? Enhance my knowledge and my network on all levels. Seen the volume of information we need to exchange to proof the intel we get. You are nothing without the others. So I would like to define collaborative visions based on respect and openness or how to optimize these processes, we need to go over the clichés, the fear, we need to admit we can’t have it all, and we don’t need to have it all. I just need to be able to plug in. So it’s about keeping the network open. And respect again. Thank you Laurence! Next Season Event    the future of the SuccessThursday, April 26, 2007Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15Where: Info.nl, Sint Antoniesbreestraat 16, 1011 HB Amsterdam [Next to Nieuwmarkt] WithNisandeh Neta, Founder, Open Circles Academy:Beyond Success Huib Wursten, Managing Partner, ITIM International:The Meaning of Success in Different Cultures Moderated by Homme Heida, Promedia, Member of the Club of Amsterdam Round Recommended Book Five Minds for the Futureby Howard Gardner We live in a time of vast changes. And those changes call for entirely new ways of learning and thinking. In Five Minds for the Future: Howard Gardner defines the cognitive abilities that will command a premium in the years ahead: the disciplinary mind – mastery of major schools of thought (including science, mathematics, and history) and of at least one professional craftthe synthesizing mind – ability to integrate ideas from different disciplines or spheres into a coherent whole and to communicate that integration to othersthe creating mind – capacity to uncover and clarify new problems, questions, and phenomenathe respectful mind – awareness of and appreciation for differences among human beings and human groupsthe ethical mind – fulfillment of one’s responsibilities as a worker and citizen World-renowned for his theory of multiple intelligences, Gardner takes that thinking to the next level in this book, drawing from a wealth of diverse examples to illuminate his ideas. Concise and engaging, Five Minds for the Future will inspire lifelong learning in any reader as well as provide valuable insights for those charged with training and developing organizational leaders – both today and tomorrow. Dongtan Eco City Developed by the Shanghai Industrial investment Corp., Dongtan Eco City, roughly the size of Manhattan, will be the world’s first fully sustainable cosmopolis when completed in 2040. Like Manhattan, it’s situated on an island — the third-largest in China. Located on the Yangtze River, Dongtan is within close proximity of the bustle of Shanghai. Media LAB LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceAn immersed experience of a Do-TankMay 29 & 30, 2007Location: Girona near Barcelona, SpainMax. 20 Delegates Moderated by Humberto Schwab, Director, Club of Amsterdam, Innovation Philosopher and the Thought LeadersLaurence Desarzens, urban communicator, beatmap.comMedia & communication specialist for lifestyle companiesPaul F.M.J. Verschure, ICREA research professor, Technology Department, University Pompeu FabraPsychologist. Specialist for wheeled and flying robots, interactive spaces and avatarsRicardo Baeza-Yates, Director, Yahoo! ResearchSpecialist for content and structure organization of a website and for blogs, vlogs and social networksRudy de Waele, Founder, M-trends.orgWireless communication expert Futurist (definition): (Twelve) Types of Futures Thinking by Acceleration Studies Foundation Understanding the nature, common pitfalls, and limits of human inquiry can help us avoid classic traps and dogmas, including the false threats and promises of many of the most successful memeplexes in global culture, and allow us to see through scenarios which are more a reflection of our own human-centric fears and idealizations than a realistic assessment of what the universe seems busily engaged in doing. We need the ability to be humble and to truly look and listen to see beyond our own individual and collective limitations. \Fu”tur*ist\, n. Social Types 1. [Preconventional futurist]. One who thinks about the future in relation to self (ego, personal vision), but without either concern for or broad understanding of the norms and conventions of society. 2. [Personal futurist]. One who uses foresight to solve problems primarily for themselves, within the conventions of society, and whose current behavior is oriented to and influenced by their future expectations and plans. 3. [Imaginative futurist]. One who habitually develops future visions, scenarios, expectations, and plans in relation to self and others, knowing but sometimes breaking the conventions and norms of society. 4. [Agenda-driven futurist]. One who creates or works toward top-down developed (received, believed) ideological, religious, or organizationally-preferredagendas (sets of rules, norms) and their related problems, for the future of a group. 5. [Consensus-driven futurist]. One who helps create or work toward bottom-up developed (facilitated, emergent), group-, communally-, institutionally- or socially-preferred futures. 6. [Professional futurist]. One who explores change for a paying client or audience, who seeks to describe and advance possible, probable, or preferable future scenarios while avoiding undesirable ones, and who may seek to help their client or audience apply these insights (manage change). Methodological Types 7. [Critical futurist]. One who explores, deconstructs, and critiques the future visions, perspectives, and value systems of others, not primarily to advance an agenda, to achieve consensus, or for payment, but as a methodology of understanding. 8. [Alternative futurist]. One who explores and proposes a range of possible or imaginable futures, including those beyond one’s personal, organizational, and cultural conventional and consensus views. 9. [Predictive futurist]. One who forecasts probable futures, events and processes that they expect are likely to occur, in a statistical sense, both as a result of anticipated personal and social choices, and for autonomous processes that appear independent of human choice. 10. [Evolutionary developmental (Evo devo) futurist]. One who explores evolutionary possibilities and predicts developmental outcomes, and attempts differentiate between evolutionary (chaotic, reversible, unpredictable) and developmental (convergent, irreversible, statistically predictable) processes of universal change. 11. [Validating futurist]. One who seeks to evaluate, systematize, and validate the completeness (for critical and alternative futures) and accuracy (for predictive and evo devo futures) of methodologies used to consider the future. 12. [Epistemological futurist.] One who investigates the epistemology (how we know what we know) of the future, and seeks to improve the paradigms of foresight scholarship and practice Media goes PULL Gerd Leonhard Music & Media Futurist on ‘Media goes PULL’: Agenda Our Season Events for 2006/2007 are on Thursdays: the future of SuccessApril 26, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 the future of TourismMay 31, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 Taste of DiversityJune 28, 2007, 18:30 – 21:15 LAB in Girona near Barcelona, Spain, moderated by Humberto Schwab:  LAB on MEDIA and Human ExperienceMay 29 & 30, 2007 Club of Amsterdam Open Business Club    Club of Amsterdam Open Business ClubAre you interested in networking, sharing visions, ideas about your future, the future of your industry, society, discussing issues, which are relevant for yourself as well as for the ‘global’ community? The future starts now – join our online platform …