For the Club of Amsterdam Journal December
2024 / January 2025, Issue 270
Wendy L Schultz, Jigsaw Foresight, Oxford, United Kingdom
Article summarizes research previously reported to Policy Horizons
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CONTENT
SPECIAL EDITION ABOUT
PREFERRED FUTURES
What Is a Preferred Future?
by Andy HinesFutures for the Heart
by Wendy Schultz, Director, Infinite FuturesCryptocurrencies – Quo vadis?
with Peter Maissen, Rohit Talwar, Chris Skinner, Hardy Schloer & Mario de VriesPreferred Future
with Glen HiemstraCybersecurity Labor Shortage in Europe: Challenges and Solutions
by Igor van Gemert, Expert on Generative AI and CyberResilienceThe Circular Economy: A User's Guide
by Walter R. StahelFrom Web 1.0 to Web 3.0: The Evolution of Digital Identity
by Jim Hartsema and Peter van Gorsel
Markku Wilenius
UNESCO Chair in Learning Society and Futures of Education
Tags
AML, Blockchain, Circular Economy, Community Visioning,
Crypto Token, Cryptocurrencies, Developmental Visioning,
Digital Identity, FOOD, Green Software, KYC, Meditative Visioning,
Mental Imagery, Nature, Neuroscience, Plastic, Preferred Futures,
Strategic Planning, Visioning Methods
Welcome
Felix B Bopp
Producer, The Future Now Show
Founder & Publisher, Club of Amsterdam
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Quotes
Any Hines: "Many times, organizations are unclear about what decisions they need to make or what they need to learn. Investing time upfront in clarifying a focal issue will pay dividends in keeping the activity focused and relevant."
Wendy Schultz: "Our futures emerge from the collision of changes, impacts - and dreams. Identify the changes, explore the impacts, and hear the different dreams - then collaborate on transformational paths forward."
Rohit Talwar: "Listen to the other person first until you’ve really heard their perspective, however much of a rush you are in to get your point across. The more people can see that you listen and care what they have to say, the more you’ll be heard, and the faster things will get done."
"Preferred futures" refer to the ideal or most desirable visions of the future that individuals, organizations, or societies aim to achieve. These are often crafted by thinking about what a better, more prosperous, and equitable future would look like, then backcasting - planning backwards from that future to identify the steps needed to get there.
Here are a few ways "preferred futures" are used:
1. Strategic Planning: Organizations use preferred futures to set long-term goals and create a clear direction. This helps guide innovation and prioritize initiatives that align with their vision.
2. Community Visioning: Communities may explore their preferred futures to identify shared values and create cohesive goals, like improving local infrastructure, education, or environmental stewardship.
3. Global Challenges: On a larger scale, preferred futures are relevant in discussions on climate change, economic equity, and technological advancement, aiming for sustainable solutions to global issues.
4. Personal Development: Individuals can also apply the concept to set personal life goals by envisioning a future aligned with their values and taking actionable steps to move toward it.
Exploring preferred futures can be transformative, giving clarity on desired outcomes and creating actionable steps to bridge the gap between present conditions and aspirational goals.
= ChatGPT
Opening
What Is a Preferred Future?
by Andy Hines
Associate Professor and Program Coordinator at the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight
Oh wow, a definitions discussion … how exciting. Bear with me. I think there is some juicy stuff here! We futurists all know the struggle with different interpretations of key terms. Variety is the spice of life, but it can be a pain when trying to explain our work.
Let’s start with good news. I’m seeing much more interest in “preferred futures.” We’ve been asked to include it in our training at Houston Foresight and in our project work as well. For example, we created a preferred future in our Future of Libraries project for the Seattle Public Library system. It also came up on the After Capitalism research where I focused on the difference between visions, images, and utopias.A preferred future is a scenario of what our vision looks like when achieved. - Andy Hines
I grant you that this definition is not exactly how we thought of it previously. It’s been one of those nagging “doesn’t feel quite right” problems. One thing we started doing several years back is creating a preferred future archetype, which was inspired by the work of Clem Bezold (among others) on aspirational futures. Our Houston Archetype Technique (the HAT), which is derived from the pioneering work of Jim Dator, synthesizes scanning and research into a set of key drivers that in turn are projected into the future using four archetypes or patterns of change. We added the “preferred future” as the fifth archetype.
This approach indeed produces a preferred future scenario. But it is kinda different, right? So, what is different? In our Advanced Strategies class, we have been working on integrating foresight more closely into strategy work. We absolutely believe in the power of foresight, and the power of vision, to guide strategy development. But how to connect? Voila. The preferred future can be thought of as the expression of the vision. What might the vision look like? That’s what scenarios do … they tell us stories about what the future might look like.
Are you seeing this growing interest in preferred futures ? Love to hear your stories on that. – Andy Hines
Dr. Andy Hines is Associate Professor and Program Coordinator at the University of Houston’s Graduate Program in Foresight, bringing together the experience he earned as an organizational, consulting, and academic futurist. He is also speaking, workshopping, and consulting through his firm Hinesight.
Article 01
Futures for the Heart
by Wendy Schultz, Director, Infinite Futures
Scenarios are ‘futures for the head’; visions are ‘futures for the heart’. ~ Clem Bezold 1
Introduction
In envisioning positive images of potential futures, people engage in the social construction of a yet unachieved reality that lends meaning and grace to their achieved realities. The image created offers a single symbol for the creatively interwoven goals, norms, and values of the community; it gives people something to work toward, a benchmark for community and personal achievement. The community vision creates value for individual members and turns chance into destiny: it pulls people towards the future. 2What is visioning?
Visioning is the process of articulating and communicating a positive image of a preferred future. These preferred futures may specify discrete goals, or act simply to illuminate possible pathways towards desirable future worlds. Many people are familiar with the use of scenarios in strategic foresight – images of alternative possible futures that explore what could be, collecting patterns of trends and emerging changes and asking, ‘what if?’ 3 Scenarios are thought experiments. Visions in contrast are images of alternative preferred futures that explore what should be, built on emerging possibilities. Visions ask, ‘what do we want?’Why do it?
In both the private and the public sectors, communities and organizations around the world are incorporating vision development into their transformational planning processes. Co-creating a shared vision helps people to unpack and critique their assumptions; to clarify and align values and goals; and to set priorities. The articulation of a compelling and inspiring shared vision increases people’s motivation to create change.Who should be involved?
Facilitators agree that visioning works best with either all the stakeholders and influencers for the focal issue involved, or at least representatives of all the stakeholder and influencer groups. In addition, because visioning preferred futures includes significant problem-solving, social innovation, and creative imagining, inviting participants with diverse professional and cultural backgrounds enhances the group’s ability to reframe problems and generate creativity from difference.What variety of visioning processes exist?
Visioning processes range from the analytical to the intuitive – many methods refer to the meditative visualization step as the ‘fantasy’ stage. Some methods begin with problems and fears, where others focus on past successes and positive projections right from the start. The time required can be the two or three hours of a Causal Layered Analysis workshop, or the three days plus background research time of a Future Search conference. The sheer variety of tools for surfacing and articulating visions of preferred futures opens up the possibility of mixing and mashing up steps from different tools, as well as feeding output from futures research activities like scanning, impact assessment, system mapping, or scenario building into the vision work.
Neuroscience and Mental Imagery – the brain and visioning futures
How does the human brain imagine and visualize the future, and how does that capability vary within a population (e.g., between old and young minds)? How does using new digital media like augmented or virtual reality affect mental capacity for visualization? What do these insights mean for the design and facilitation of vision processes? Are different approaches best suited to particular participant communities? This section is exploratory and represents an emerging and ongoing area of inquiry.Mental time travel – theories of visualization
People visualize their reality all the time (except for those with aphantasia, inability to visualize). If asked to describe the office in which you work, or what colour your mother’s hair is, or the hill where you sledded for the first time, you visualize the memory or the situation, and then verbally describe it. But visualization can also assist in processing information and enhancing memory – e.g., memories for groups of objects are enhanced by visualizing the objects interacting. 4 The scene can be recalled as an image for review and more accurate remembrance. Mental imagery consists of more than visual data; it includes the full sensory range – a rich mental image will encompass sight, sound, smell, taste, touch, proximity, pressure, and temperature.
How do people create mental images? We build images up a part at a time, roughly in the order we first assembled or perceived the components. 5 The mind also clusters details into coherent patterns and assembles blocks of patterns to create the whole. It does so by activating similar structures in the brain to those supporting memory and the re-experiencing of the past – essentially enabling ‘mental time travel.’ 6
Imagery helps learning new skills – imagining performing the actions required improves the capability, as long as imagined performance is intermixed with actual performance practice. Susan Greenfield notes that the brain does not distinguish in its responses between the vividly imagined and the vividly experienced: the effects on the body are similar. 7
Athletes commonly visualize preferred optimal outcomes prior to engaging in competitive sports. Recommendations to athletes for performance improvement via mental imagery include: 8Remember also that people bring their own individual experiences and cognitive lenses to imaging and so will interpret images uniquely. The more specific, realistic, and vivid the imagery, the more it will invoke psychophysiological responses, heightening significance for the specific individuals involved and embedding the imagery in their worldview. 9
Differences among people in visualization capacity
Research shows that younger and older people remember the past and imagine the future differently. Younger adults activate more regions supporting episodic detail when remembering events in their own lives and when imagining their possible futures – they remember and imagine more vividly and specifically – than older adults. 10 Studies show that the number of internal details generated by older adults is supported and constrained by their ability to build relations and constructs across memories. The ‘constructive-episodic-simulation hypothesis’ suggests that “simulation of future episodes requires a system that can flexibly recombine details from past events into novel scenarios.” 11 For visioning and future imaging facilitation, this implies that processes that assist participants in acknowledging the future, and reviewing emerging novel changes, and offering mechanisms to create, combine, and recombine details will result in more richly imaged future visions.Implications for Visioning Preferred Futures
According to the neuroscience literature, visualizing skills and actions required to create preferred outcomes improves those skills and increases the probability of achieving desired results. This confirms the idea that visioning preferred futures exerts a ‘pull’ on actions in the present aligned with those visions. The more vividly detailed the vision, the more brain, body, and mind will experience the imagery as a potential reality. The difficulty arises from the location of the process: the same brain structures used to remember the past are activated to help us imagine futures. This could tend to enhance people’s tendency to visualize futures as simple re-interpretations of past experience, rather than as a truly novel, transformed new era.
The neuroscience literature suggests several guidelines for creating visioning processes:
- Provide an array of details that may be combined and recombined to create richly detailed images of preferred futures;
- Encourage people to describe the futures using all their senses;
- Express the visions of preferred future experientially – potentially by using artifacts that also engage all their senses – or via augmented and virtual reality.
Visioning Methods
This section describes the underlying structure and components common to visioning processes. It then provides step-by-step summaries of eleven distinct processes for articulating visions (images of preferred futures). Please note that new approaches to visioning preferred futures are emerging all over the world and futures practitioners are increasingly decolonizing and culturally situating processes specific to their context; this is simply an introduction to more common processes, and is being updated.Every visioning process must include steps to help participants identify and articulate their own preferred future, and then to compare those individual visions, find joint goals and similar themes, and synthesize a group vision. The starting points may differ, and the approach to articulating preferences, but the end result should both acknowledge contrasts across the worldviews and values brought to the process, and an emerging alignment where values agree and interconnect.
Twelve discrete visioning processes follow below, listed by approximate date of origin from oldest to newest. For each process, the brief description here includes: an overview, the basic design objective, and original references. Note that the extended research report also includes the critical steps in the process and tips for using the process – contact the author for the full research monograph.
Meditative Visioning: Ziegler/Boulding, Imaging the Future as a World Without WeaponsOverview
This approach was designed on the process backbone of Warren Ziegler’s experience and practice in community visioning and evolved from Elise Boulding’s work as a peace activist. It empowers participants by demonstrating that even the most idealistic visions can start with practical action in the present. At its core is an extended ‘fantasy’ exploration of an ideal future whose single predetermined element is that it must be a world plausibly without weapons (ie, deus ex machina not permitted).
Objective (when to use it)
This vision approach is topically focused, and best suited to participants eager to explore potential resolutions for conflict.
References
Boulding, Elise. (1991) Imaging a World Without Weapons Workshop guidebook, handout.
Ziegler, W. (1991). Envisioning the future. Futures, 23(5), 516–527. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(91)90099-N
Boulding, E. (1988). Image and Action in Peace Building. Journal of Social Issues, 44(2), 17–37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-4560.1988.tb02061.x
Boulding, E. (1991). The challenge of imaging peace in wartime. Futures, 23(5), 528–533. https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(91)90100-G
Developmental Visioning: Jungk, Müllert, Lutz, Future Workshops
Overview
Jungk and Müllert (with assistance from Rudiger Lutz) developed the Future Workshops process for citizen groups, particularly marginalized communities with few resources who wanted to contribute to decision-making, or to create change themselves. The goal was to envision a future worth living and working for after a critical dialogue about the problems of the present. The design rocks back and forth between rational-logical steps and intuitive-emotional ‘fantasy’ steps.
Objective (when to use it)
While originally designed for social action in disenfranchised communities and groups with few resources, it is arguable that almost everyone facing a need or desire to create change feels their resources are unequal to the task. Consequently, it may be as suited to middle management as to urban squatters. This approach does focus more on near-term futures – solving immediate problems to create positive outcomes in short order.
References
Jungk, R., Müllert, N. (1987) Future workshops: How to create desirable futures. London: Institute for Social Inventions.
Apel, H. (2004). The Future Workshop. Retrieved from http://www.die-bonn.de/esprid/dokumente/doc-2004/apel04_02.pdf
Success-based Visioning: Cooperrider and Srivastva, Appreciative Inquiry
Overview
Appreciative Inquiry (AI) was initially developed in 1987 by David L. Cooperrider and Suresh Srivastva, who were working in organizational behaviour at Case Western Reserve University. AI was designed to respond to an overemphasis on ‘problem solving’ within organizations. It focusses instead on affirmation, creating positive outcomes based on a foundation of a team, organization, or community’s past successes and proven strengths. Furthermore, it assumes that all human organizations are created, maintained - and changed! - by conversations and stories.
Objective (when to use it)
What makes Appreciative Inquiry different is its focus on local strengths and achievements, rather than on deficits, problems or critical analysis. Often the outcomes of an AI process will surprise participants. They will discover future paths and a shared dream that was not obvious at the start. The participatory nature of the process usually builds broad based support for action and commitment of the future. The process builds energy as it goes.
It can be particularly good in creating equity between diverse voices from many different kinds of people.
References
Cooperrider, D. L., & Srivastva, S. (1987). “Appreciative Inquiry in Organizational Life,” in Research in Organizational Change and Development, Vol. 1, pp. 129-169. Retrieved from https://www.centerforappreciativeinquiry.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/APPRECIATIVE_INQUIRY_IN_Orgnizational_life.pdf
Cooperrider, D. L. (1987). A contemporary commentary on Appreciative inquiry in organizational life. Advances in Appreciative Inquiry, 1, 129–169. https://doi.org/10.1108/S1475-9152(2013)0000004001
Visual Preference-based Visioning: Nelessen, Visual Preference Survey
Overview
This approach to visioning emerged from urban and community planning. It presents people with visual images of design choices for specific locales and parts of the built environment in their community. The use of contrasting visual examples opens up the idea space for what people could want beyond the limits of whaty they themselves have experienced. Participants vote on how much they like or hate each variation of what could be. They are then offered the opportunity to draw or model the outcome they’d prefer to see on a map of their community, essentially designing a preferred future for their community.
Objective (when to use it)
VPS concretely addresses the problem that people may not understand the full scope of their options for the future prior to articulating what they want the future to be. Visual Preference Surveys / Models aim to show people how the future might be different depending upon their choices and policy preferences, enabling community evaluation and discussion of alternative potential designs. The focus is clarifying community values prior to designing a transformative community plan.
References
Nelessen, Anton C. (1993). “Understanding and Making Use of People’s Visual Preferences,” in Planning Commissioners Journal, No. 9, 12-14
Nelessen, Tony. (2010). “Redesigning cities.” Video, Rutgers University. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el-XbFFK9Mg
Evans-Cowley, J. (2014) "Visual Preference Surveys with StreetSeen", video, Planetizen. https://youtu.be/FqxCGZY3m64?si=zbI2aHNBLEZ54M_4
Nelessen, A. (2021) Community Visioning for Place Making: A Guide to Visual Preference Surveys for Successful Urban Evolution. Routledge. ISBN 9781003108719 https://www.routledge.com/Community-Visioning-for-Place-Making-A-Guide-to-Visual-Preference-Surveys-for-Successful-Urban-Evolution/Nelessen/p/book/9780367622831?srsltid=AfmBOop8NI7mVoeQUcfhZsiRabAErP--deNktLuV01O9CITFYFgIDoT-
Integrated Visioning: Schultz, Futures Fluency (aka Manoa Integrated Visioning)
Overview
This approach to visioning was based on multiple projects facilitated by the Hawai’i Research Center for Futures Studies with public communities, non-profit organizations, and government agencies. The two-day process incorporates a range of foresight activities to offset the tendency of participants new to futures thinking to re-inscribe the past onto their visions of preferred futures.
Objective (when to use it)
This process focusses on expanding participants’ understanding of change overall, its impacts, and the possibilities for positive transformation inherent in articulating and acting upon a positive, preferred image of the future. It assumes that participants may be new to futures thinking and will need to stretch their perspectives, frames, and imaginations in order to articulate novel, transformational preferred futures.
References
Schultz, Wendy L., Clement Bezold, and Beatrice Monahan. (1993). Reinventing Courts for the 21st Century: Designing a Vision Process, A guidebook on futures thinking within state court systems. NCSC, Institute for Alternative Futures, and Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies. https://cdm16501.contentdm.oclc.org/digital/collection/ctadmin/id/15
Schultz, Wendy L. (1995). Futures Fluency: Explorations in leadership, vision, and creativity. Dissertation submitted to the University of Hawai’i at Manoa. http://scholarspace.manoa.hawaii.edu/handle/10125/10157
Stakeholder Visioning: Weisbord and Janoff, Future Search
Overview
Future Search is a three-day, past-present-future exploratory designed to bring stakeholders in an issue together to articulate an ideal future for the issue; identify common ground in achieving it; and commit to an action plan with measurable outcomes. It has been widely used in corporate as well as community visioning and action planning.
Objective (when to use it)
Future Search is designed to engage the whole system – a cross-section of as many stakeholders and interested actors as possible. The extended timeline puts future scenarios in both historical and global perspective, encouraging people to think broadly before acting locally and enhancing shared understanding and commitment, as well as increasing diversity of potential actions. The participatory focus is on dialogue, not problem-solving, and common ground rather than conflict management – honouring differences, not reconciling them.
References
Weisbord, Marvin R. and Sandra Janoff. (1995). Future Search: An Action Guide to Finding Common Ground in Organizations and Communities. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. https://www.bkconnection.com/books/title/future-search
Weisbord, M. R., & Janoff, S. (1996). Future search: Finding common ground in organizations and communities. Systems Practice, 9(1), 71–84. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02173419 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02173419
Structure-analytic Visioning: Inayatullah, Causal Layered Analysis
Overview
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) systematically takes participants down through successive analytic layers to expose leverage points for change. Digging beneath the observable events uncovers the systems and structures driving events and changes; analysing worldviews, paradigms, and cultural structures uncovers the internalised assumptions that create the systems and structures. Alternative futures – whether exploratory or normative – can emerge by suggesting alternative assumptions or cultural structures and building back up to the level of conditions and events.
Objective (when to use it)
CLA is designed to expand the framing of an issue in order to open up the thinking/imaginative space for participants to explore how to respond to the issue. The primary ‘levers’ to open up thinking and imagination are professional and cultural diversity. Thus, CLA is not only suited to multidisciplinary groups, it actively requires them. While often used to create scenarios – alternative possible futures of an issue – it is structurally better suited to creating visions of preferred futures, as it starts with a problem and then analyses deep structural shifts that could address the problem to create a better future.
References
Inayatullah, S. (1998). Causal layered analysis: poststructuralism as method. Futures, 30(8), 815–829. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(98)00086-X
Inayatullah, S. (2005). Causal Layered Analysis — Deepening the future. Questioning the Future: Methods and Tools for Organizational and Societal Transformation, pp. 1–22. Retrieved from https://www.metafuture.org/cla%20papers/Inayatullah%20Causal%20layered%20analysis%20-%20%20Deepening%20the%20Future.pdf
Aspirational Futures Visioning: Bezold, Peck, Institute for Alternative Futures
Overview
This foresight method incorporates a suite of key foresight activities: identifying change, exploring alternative outcomes, and visioning preferred – or ‘aspirational’ futures. The process begins with an environmental (horizon) scan and then bounds the uncertainties resulting from emerging change with scenarios based on archetypes including expectable, challenging, and visionary futures. The visionary futures are expressed as outcomes from a critical mass of stakeholders who have successfully pursued visionary strategies.
Objective (when to use it)
The Institute for Alternative Futures developed this foresight process to help people understand change in the macro-environment, the operating environment, and the organization or community of interest. In addition to helping people better understand the possibilities of emerging futures, this method also incorporates imagining shared visions in order to improve the capacity to create preferred futures. It has been used in government, corporate, and non-profit organizations and communities.
References
Bezold, C. (2009). Aspirational futures. Journal of Futures Studies.
https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2009-2/vol-13-no-4-may/articles-essays/aspirational-futures/
Bezold, C., Peck, J., & Meade, E. (2014). Public Health 2030: A Scenario Exploration. Public Health A Scenario Exploration. Retrieved from https://kresge.org/sites/default/files/Institute-for-Alternative-Futures-Public-Health-2030.pdf
Human-focussed Visioning: Lum and Bowman, Verge
Overview
The Verge General Practice Framework, also known in Europe as the Ethnographic Futures Framework, was developed in 2004 by Dr. Richard Lum and Michele Bowman. Lum has continued to elaborate it, aided by an expanding community of practice in Europe and the US. Verge was originally intended as an alternative to the STEEP horizon scanning taxonomy for change. The six Verge domains are Define, Relate, Connect, Create, Consume, and Destroy. Where STEEP focusses on where change originates, Verge focusses on where change hits: the points of impact with human systems. Or, in the case of visioning, where transformation should occur within human systems.
Objective (when to use it)
Verge can be used in almost all futures activities as an organizing framework or a set of provocative discussion questions. The six Verge questions can be used to probe for a more complete range of possible impacts in brainstorming futures wheels, or they can be re-phrased from questions about what could happen to questions about how we should change, to create or expand visioning dialogues. The Verge domains, stated as normative probes, can kickstart a visioning process relatively quickly – in a two- or three-hour workshop.
References
Lum, Richard K. (2013). “An Introduction to Verge: a general practice framework for futures work”, slides from presentation at Wolfson College, Oxford, on October 4, 2013.
… (2014). “Working with Verge,” in APF Compass Methods Special Edition. https://ddtconference.files.wordpress.com/2017/07/lum-verge-apfcompass-april14.pdf
Change-wave Visioning: Sharpe, Three Horizons
Overview
The Three Horizons Framework maps overlapping waves of change visible in the present as mindsets: managerial (stewardship), visionary, and entrepreneurial. The Framework was developed by Bill Sharpe and Anthony Hodgson of International Futures Forum as part of work for the UK Foresight Programme’s Intelligent Infrastructures Project, with contributions from Andrew Curry.12 Sharpe initially wanted to depict overlapping waves of technological innovation and change more realistically than traditional technology roadmapping. Three Horizons has proven widely useful as a conceptual model to aid people thinking about current assumptions, emerging changes, and possible and desired futures. It is constantly evolving, and a sizeable library of case studies now exists.
Objective (when to use it)
Three Horizons is an adaptable futures tool, and has several uses, such as:
References
Sharpe, Bill. (2013). Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope. Triarchy Press. https://www.triarchypress.net/three-horizons.html
Curry, A., & Hodgson, A. (2008). Seeing in multiple horizons: Connecting futures to strategy. Journal of Futures Studies. Retrieved from http://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/131-A01.pdf
Impact-cascade Visioning: Hichert, Schultz; Seeds of Good Anthropocenes
Overview
This method is success-focussed – a characteristic it shares with Appreciative Inquiry – in that it evolves visions by combining ‘seeds’ of novel and transformative pilot projects that are already being implemented and succeeding locally in the real world. It explores their first through third order impacts and combines the changes and impacts into a visionary narrative. The process ends with backcasting from the visionary narrative using the Three Horizons Framework as a scaffold for mapping action. This gives the idealistic visions a strong foundation in practical action, and role models for next steps to nurture change.
Objective (when to use it)
The Center for Complex Systems in Transition at Stellenbosch University, South Africa, wanted to “solicit, explore, and develop a suite of alternative visions for “Good Anthropocenes” - positive futures that are socially and ecologically desirable, just, and sustainable.” This initial project’s aim was to create good stories about the future – and subsequent projects have used the method for the same end.
This methodology is designed to avoid generic futures, and the ambient futures embedded in the social context, popular media, and regular academic literature. It aims to transcend ‘used futures’ and develop positive transformative stories that feel fresh and local. The use of Manoa scenario building as the core detail generator, arose from its focus of maximizing difference from current conditions.
References
CST-GRAID. 2017. Report on the Anthropocene Visioning Workshop, 15-18 November 2016, Cape Town, South Africa. GRAID project workshop. Centre for Complex Systems in Transition, Stellenbosch University, South Africa. https://goodanthropocenes.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/anthropocene-visioning-workshop-report_final.pdf
Pereira, L. M., Hichert, T., Hamann, M., Preiser, R., & Biggs, R. (2017). “Using futures methods to create transformative spaces: visions of a good Anthropocene in Southern Africa.” Ecology and Society, 23(1), art19. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09907-230119
Lundquist, C. J., A. Greenaway, K. K. Davies, & M. M. Foley. (2018) Visions for nature and nature’s contributions to people for the 21st century. Report from an IPBES visioning workshop held on 4-8 September 201 in Auckland, New Zealand. https://nicolastiteux.wordpress.com/2018/02/13/visions-for-nature-and-natures-contributions-to-people-for-the-21st-century/
Process Comparison and Analysis
As stated in the introduction, visioning processes range from the analytical to the intuitive; many combine both. Some methods begin with problems and fears, where others focus on past successes and positive projections right from the start. These various visioning techniques can be contrasted across two continua – mode of thinking, and initial prompt.
- Success-building vs fear-acknowledging – does the process focus entirely on success, avoiding the negative overtones of specifically addressing fears and worries? Or does the vision process begin by identifying and acknowledging challenges, constraints, and potential crises?
- Success-building – World without Weapons Workshops; Appreciative Inquiry; Future Search; Verge; Seeds
- Fear-acknowledging – Future Workshops; Visual Preference Surveys; Futures Fluency; Causal Layered Analysis; Aspirational Futures; Three Horizons
Visions - Fabricated vs. Found
The preceding sections have focussed on step-by-step processes designed to help individuals and groups surface and articulate images of preferred futures, or visions. These are primarily processes of invention, focussed on visualizing novel transformative visions that focus action to address issues in the present. Vision facilitators should always remember the context: we are all awash in images of the future lingering from the past and emergent in the present that are ambient in our cultures.
These ambient visions are the substrate of the perspectives participants bring to visioning workshops, and potentially compete with and constrain novel visions the workshop is designed to create. Acknowledging their existence could help address this. Researchers could prepare for vision workshops by identifying and analysing existing images of the future across the culture. In addition to content analysis, software platforms such as Sensemaker enable widespread narrative collection and analysis of images of the future. This could provide a useful comparative input to a visioning workshop – or replace a vision workshop entirely by collecting and collating images of preferred futures across a large population.
Getting Started
Visioning processes are different in quality from scanning, systems mapping, or scenario building. Scanning scouts ahead for emerging change; systems mapping charts key contextual elements and their interconnections; scenarios create narratives of otherness and transformation. These methods observe, model, and extrapolate the external world. Visioning begins with an exploration of our internal world, our core values and worldview. It requires us to share what we cherish and most desire, and as such it is more intensely personal than other foresight methods – ‘futures for the heart.’ Facilitating visioning requires a deft touch.
That begins with acknowledging that you are asking people, essentially, to daydream. The more professionals you have as participants, the more focussed they will be on problem-solving, and they will tend to default to that mode. The best way to begin the session in which you ask participants to articulate their preferred future is to highlight the distinction between daydreaming and problem-solving: remind them that all of us, from childhood are discouraged from daydreaming, and as professionals we are all rewarded for putting out brush fires and managing crises at work. But this is different – ask them to suspend disbelief and for this specific interval of time to give themselves permission to voice their values. If at all possible, have the highest-ranking sponsor make this request, and encourage them to be visionary.
A good get-to-know-each-other warm-up that underlines this request to be upbeat, positive, and visionary is a ‘share your best memories’ pairs exercise. This does triple duty: creates immense positive energy as the best memories are shared back to plenary; provides excellent active listening practice; and shifts people into an imaginative mode where rich sensory detail is stressed. ‘Shared best memories’ pairs people with the assignment that they are to alternate in sharing best memories, and when acting as the listener, prompt for sensory cues (“What did it sound like? Smell like? What was the light like? Who was with you? What did you taste?” etc.), listen accurately, and take excellent notes – because it is the listener’s duty to share their partners best memory back to the group, and vice versa. The shared stories become a joint resource of joy among the participants and provide a solid connection to shared values and dreams.
Find your community, and work to find your futures for the heart.
1 Ibid., p. 17.
2 Schultz, Wendy L. Futures Fluency: Explorations in Leadership, Vision, and Creativity. PhD dissertation, University of Hawai’i, May 1995.
3 Schultz, Wendy L., Clement Bezold, and Beatrice P. Monahan. Reinventing Courts for the 21st Century: Designing a Vision Process. Guidebook prepared for the State Justice Institute, 1993, p. 10.
4 Kosslyn, S. M., M. Behrmann, M. Jeannerod. “The cognitive neuroscience of mental imagery,” in Neuropsychologia, 33(11), 1995, pp. 1335-1344.
5 Kosslyn, S. “Aspects of a Cognitive Neuroscience of Mental Imagery,” in Science, 240 (4859), pp. 1621-1626.
6 Botzung, A., Denkova, E., & Manning, L. (2008). Experiencing past and future personal events: Functional neuroimaging evidence on the neural bases of mental time travel. Brain and Cognition, 66(2), 202–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bandc.2007.07.011
7 Greenfield, Susan. Personal communication.
8 “The BASES Expert Statement on the Use of Mental Imagery in Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation Contexts,” 2013, accessed
9 Munroe-Chandler, Krista J. and Michelle D. Guerrero, “Psychological Imagery in Sport and Performance,” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Psychology, April 2017
10 Addis, D. R., Wong, A. T., & Schacter, D. L. “Age-related changes in autobiographical remembering and imagining,” Neuropsychologia, 49(13), 3656-3669, 2011. x
11 Addis, D. R., Wong, A. T., & Schacter, D. L. “Age-related changes in the episodic simulation of future events,” Psychological Science, 19(1), 33–41, 2008.
12 Sharpe and Hodgson, UK Foresight Programme, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures Technology Forward Look
up
At the Summit for the Future, 2005 - Club of Amsterdam
Summit for the Future Report 2005
The Future Now Show
Cryptocurrencies – Quo vadis?
with Peter Maissen, Rohit Talwar, Chris Skinner, Hardy Schloer & Mario de Vries
" The meeting is about the future of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, with a focus on their potential benefits and risks, as well as their implications for businesses and governments. The panelists also explore the potential shift from fiat currencies to alternative assets like gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies, and the role of big tech companies in the future of transactions. Lastly, they touche on the potential for Bitcoin whales to control the system. " AI summary by Zoom
Panel
Moderator
Credits
Peter Maissen
Empowering Innovation: We Path the Future of Virtual Assets
CEO, Bitclear
Liechtenstein
bitclear.com
Panel
Rohit Talwar
Futurist Keynote Speaker - Leadership, Learning, Innovation, and Transformation for the AI Era
CEO, Fast Future
London, UK
fastfuture.com
Publication list:
A Very Human Future
Aftershocks-and-Opportunities - Scenarios for a Post Pandemic Future
Aftershocks and Opportunities 2 - Navigating the Next Horizon
Ensuring AI Serves Humanity
The Future of Business
The Future Reinvented-Fast Future
The Opportunity at the Edge
Chris Skinner
Global keynote speaker | Author | Advisor
Poland
CEO of the Finanser
thefinanser.com
Co-Founder, WebAccountPlus (Holding) AG
webaccountplus.com
Non-Executive Director for 11:FS
11fs.com
Hardy Schloer
Founder & CEO of Alpha Centauri International
Cognitive Intelligence by Alpha Centauri Group
Dubai
Kuala Lumpur
cognitivintelligence.com
Moderator
Mario de Vries
Media Specialist
The Netherlands
gazooom.nl
Felix B Bopp
Producer, The Future Now Show
Founder & Publisher, Club of Amsterdam
clubofamsterdam.com
The Future Now Show
clubofamsterdam.com/thefuturenowshow
You can find The Future Now Show also at
LinkedIn: The Future Now Show Group
YouTube: The Future Now Show Channel
Article 02
Preferred Future
with Glen Hiemstra
2020: "At Futurist.com our primary emphasis has always been on creating the “preferred future.” Thus, we have developed methods to push alternative future scenarios toward a preferred scenario for the organization, the community, or whatever enterprise is planning for its future. This approach has been applied to community futures, to transportation, to future libraries, and to information technology organizations.” – Glen Hiemstra
Gen Hiemstra, retired founder, Futurist.com, former professor, Futurist Think Tank. Focused on now & advocating long-term preferred futures.
At the Summit for the Future, 2005 - Club of Amsterdam
Summit for the Future Report 2005
THE FUTURIST - Glen Hiemstra
In this short film Glen Hiemstra, Founder of Futurist.com, explores what it means to be a futurist and what drives his work. The film was produced by Graymatter Productions, Seattle, Washington.
News about the Future
> Boat Lift
> Green Software Foundation
The Falkirk Wheel - The world's one and only rotating boat lift. A marvel of engineering and Scottish Canals' flagship destination. The Falkirk Wheel links the Forth & Clyde Canal to the Union Canal 35 metres above, allowing vessels to sail through the sky thanks to a unique fusion of art and engineering – and the same power it would take to boil eight kettles - in a half-turn that takes only five minutes.
The wheel was built as part of the £85.4m Millennium link project to reunite the Forth and Clyde and Union Canals in Scotland. The canals had previously been linked by a staircase of 11 locks which took nearly a day to pass through.
The plan to regenerate central Scotland's canals and reconnect Glasgow with Edinburgh was led by British Waterways with support and funding from seven local authorities, the Scottish Enterprise Network, the European Regional Development Fund, and the Millennium Commission. Planners decided early to create a dramatic 21st-century landmark structure to reconnect the canals, instead of simply recreating the historic lock flight.The wheel raises boats by 24 metres (79 ft), but the Union Canal is still 11 metres (36 ft) higher than the aqueduct which meets the wheel. Boats must also pass through a pair of locks between the top of the wheel and the Union Canal. The Falkirk Wheel is the only rotating boat lift of its kind in the world, and one of two working boat lifts in the United Kingdom.
The Foundation's mission is to reduce the total change in global carbon emissions associated with software. When evaluating choices we choose the option that advocates for abatement (reducing emissions) not neutralisation (offsetting emissions).
Operationalise:
We will consider how to minimise carbon emissions in every decision we make around how we conduct ourselves operationally and the standards and technology we create and use.
Be Inclusive and Open to All
Achieving the mission of the Green Software Foundation requires us to act with fairness to all members and be inclusive of diverse perspectives.
We will ensure digital accessibility throughout our organizational processes, communications channels, standard development, and code.
Our working groups and steering committee will work via consensus. If we fail to reach a consensus on issues, then there is a vote. The organization's size does not matter. Each general and steering member organization has one vote each.
Our steering committee will review any requests for resources that, on balance, benefit some member organizations over others.
We will follow the Linux Foundation anti-trust policy.
Article 03
Cybersecurity Labor Shortage in Europe: Challenges and Solutions
by Igor van Gemert, Expert on Generative AI and CyberResilience
Augentic CyberSecurity Agent
September 27, 2024The European cybersecurity sector is grappling with a significant labor shortage, a challenge that has far-reaching implications for businesses and governments alike. This shortage is occurring against a backdrop of escalating cyber threats and an increasingly digital economy, making it a critical issue for the region's security and economic prosperity.
The Scale of the Problem
The demand for cybersecurity professionals in Europe has been growing exponentially, outpacing the available supply of skilled workers. According to recent studies, the global cybersecurity workforce needs to grow by 65% to effectively defend organizations' critical assets. In Europe alone, the shortage is estimated to be in the hundreds of thousands of professionals.
Salary LandscapeOne of the key factors in understanding the labor market for cybersecurity professionals is the salary structure. Let's examine the salary ranges in the Netherlands as a representative case study:
These figures are generally competitive within Europe, typically higher than those in Southern and Eastern European countries, and comparable to salaries in Germany and France. However, they fall slightly below those offered in Switzerland or the UK, especially in London.
When compared to the United States, European salaries tend to be lower:
The salary gap widens at higher levels and for specialized roles, which can contribute to a "brain drain" as top talent is lured to more lucrative markets.
Causes of the Shortage
Several factors contribute to the cybersecurity labor shortage in Europe:
Impact on European Businesses
The shortage of cybersecurity professionals has several consequences for European businesses:
Innovative Solutions: Augmented Cybersecurity Technologies
To address the labor shortage, many organizations are turning to augmented cybersecurity technologies. These cutting-edge solutions offer a way to "do more with less," enhancing the capabilities of existing cybersecurity teams.
Augmented cybersecurity technologies provide several benefits:
Augemented Roles Provided by Cyberresilience.pro
Copyright 2024These roles cover a wide range of cybersecurity specialties, from technical expertise to strategic leadership and even psychological support. The inclusion of virtual and AI-assisted roles (like Virtual CISO and Virtual ISO) suggests that cyberresilience.pro is leveraging advanced technologies to provide scalable cybersecurity solutions. By offering this diverse set of roles, cyberresilience.pro appears to be addressing various aspects of cybersecurity, including:
This comprehensive approach could indeed help organizations enhance their cybersecurity capabilities with fewer in-house personnel, as they can access specialized expertise on-demand through cyberresilience.pro's services.
The Path ForwardWhile augmented cybersecurity technologies offer a promising solution to the labor shortage, they are not a complete replacement for human expertise. Instead, the future of cybersecurity in Europe likely lies in a hybrid approach that combines human intelligence with technological augmentation.
To fully address the labor shortage, European countries and businesses should also focus on:
By taking a multifaceted approach that leverages both human talent and advanced technologies, Europe can work towards closing the cybersecurity skills gap and building a more secure digital future.
About Igor van GemertIgor van Gemert is a renowned figure whose expertise in generative artificial intelligence (AI) is matched by his extensive 15year background in cybersecurity, serving as a Chief Information Security Officer (CISO) and trusted adviser to boardrooms. His unique combination of skills has positioned him as a pivotal player in the intersection of AI, cybersecurity, and digital transformation projects across critical sectors including defense, healthcare, and government.
Van Gemert's deep knowledge of AI and its applications is informed by his practical experience in safeguarding digital infrastructure against evolving cyber threats. This dual focus has enabled him to contribute significantly to the development of secure, AIdriven technologies and strategies that address the complex challenges faced by these highstakes fields. As an adviser, he brings a strategic vision that encompasses not only the technical aspects of digital transformation but also the crucial cybersecurity considerations that ensure these innovations are reliable and protected against cyber threats.
His work in defense, healthcare, and government projects demonstrates a commitment to leveraging AI and cybersecurity to enhance national security, patient care, and public sector efficiency. Van Gemert's contributions extend beyond individual projects to influence broader discussions on policy, ethics, and the future direction of technology in society. By bridging the gap between cuttingedge AI research and cybersecurity best practices, Igor van Gemert plays an instrumental role in shaping the digital landscapes of critical sectors, ensuring they are both innovative and secure.
Recommended Book
The Circular Economy: A User's Guide
by Walter R. Stahel
A Circular Economy seeks to rebuild capital, whether this is financial, manufactured, human, social or natural, and offers opportunities and solutions for all organisations. This book, written by Walter Stahel, who is widely recognised as one of the key people who formulated the concept of the Circular Economy, is the perfect introduction for anyone wanting to quickly get up to speed with this vitally important topic for ensuring sustainable development. It sets out a new framework that refines the concept of a Circular Economy and how it can be applied at industrial levels. This concise book presents the key themes for busy managers and policymakers and some of the newest thinking on the topic of the Circular Economy from one of the leading thinkers in the field. Practical examples and case studies with real-life data are used to elucidate the ideas presented within the book.
Walter R. Stahel
Walter R. Stahel (born June 5, 1946) is a Swiss architect, graduating from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zürich in 1971. He has been influential in developing the field of sustainability, by advocating 'service-life extension of goods - reuse, refill, reprogram, repair, remanufacture, upgrade technologically' philosophies as they apply to industrialised economies. He co-founded the Product Life Institute in Geneva, Switzerland, a consultancy devoted to developing sustainable strategies and policies, after receiving recognition for his prize winning paper 'The Product Life Factor' in 1982. His ideas and those of similar theorists led to what is now known as the circular economy in which industry adopts the reuse and service-life extension of goods as a strategy of waste prevention, regional job creation and resource efficiency in order to decouple wealth from resource consumption, that is to dematerialise the industrial economy. The circular economy has been adopted by the state-owned-and-run China Coal industry as a guiding philosophy.[1] In the 1990s, Stahel extended this vision to selling goods as services as the most efficient strategy of the circular economy. He described this approach in his 2006 book The Performance Economy, with a second enlarged edition in 2010 which contains 300 examples and case studies. he currently works closely with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation on further promoting his ideas with economic actors.
Article 04
From Web 1.0 to Web 3.0: The Evolution of Digital Identity
by Jim Hartsema and Peter van Gorsel
The Problem with today’s Digital Identity
Today, we’re still an endless stream of passwords, usernames, and profiles, each one vulnerable to be exploited.
Whenever we need to prove who we are - whether it’s to verify our age, access a service, or make a purchase - we’re often asked for much more information than necessary. This over-sharing doesn’t just invade our privacy; it opens the digital door to identity theft and fraud. Once our data is out there, it’s out of our control, sitting on centralized servers that are prime targets for hackers.
All we get in return is more and boring online security training at work - those tedious e-learning modules reminding us not to click on sketchy links or to double-check email senders. It’s like putting a band-aid on a broken leg. The real issue is the shaky foundation of the digital world specifically concerning our digital identity system.
The Potential of Web 3.0: A New Approach to Digital Identity
Prepare for Web 3.0 - the next big leap in the internet’s evolution, offering a chance to totally rethink how we handle and take back our digital identities. Unlike today’s Web, where centralized platforms hold all the cards, Web 3.0 offers the potential for us to take back control of our data, privacy, and identity in a decentralized world.
This shift is powered by a mix of cutting-edge technologies that make decentralized identities possible. One of the coolest innovations is the use of #verifiable credentials, which you can store in your digital identity #wallet, giving you what’s known as #self-sovereign identity. This is all part of the upcoming eIDAS 2.0, https://www.european-digital-identity-regulation.com, set to launch in 2027, building on the original eIDAS 1.0 - which, Dutch readers might remember, introduced DigiD.
The Origins of Digital Identity
When the Internet came to life, it wasn’t about us, humans. The early days of the Web, now known as Web 1.0, were focused on giving machines identities through IP addresses so they could communicate with each other. It was all about connecting machines. But while the computers had their digital ID game sorted; humans were left to wander the web without any clear way to manage our own digital identities.
In those early days, the Web was static, featuring minimal interaction. It was like the wild west and back then; the early engineers had no idea what kind of beast they had created. If you wanted to participate, you did so anonymously or with just a sliver of personal info. The idea of a "digital identity" was pretty much unheard of. We were just visitors, browsing the emerging digital landscape without needing to prove who we were. Not much thought was given to how it should be built with privacy and security as foundational principles, where the customer or user came first. It was all about monetization, as most of the times in a capitalistic society.
The Web 2.0 Shift: From Machines to People
However, as the internet morphed into Web 2.0, things got a lot more interactive, social, and “people-focused”. The static websites turned into platforms, and suddenly the Web was all about connecting people. Social media, online shopping, and various services exploded, and with it came the need to have our own digital identities. The reality is that In Web 2.0, our digital identities are scattered all over the Web.
Our digital identities are scattered across countless platforms, each asking for more info than we’d really like to share. We are juggling millions of usernames and passwords, mistaking them for our digital identities”. Instead of having one solid, interoperable identity, we ended up with separate accounts for every possible service: Facebook, Twitter, Amazon etc. Each of these platforms demand personal information: names, emails, birth dates, and sometimes often even more sensitive personal data. The Big Tech firms are collecting as much as they can from you and your data, so they can better target you and follow your behavior on the internet. Something the author George Orwell already predicted and mentioned in his book 1984; “Big brother is watching you”.
This setup isn’t just problematic to manage; it also raises some serious red flags around privacy and (digital)security. Every time you sign up for something new, you hand over a chunk of your personal data, which then gets stored in centralized databases - a dream come true for cybercriminals. As data breaches become a regular headline in today's news. It’s clear that our approach to digital identities has some major flaws that will be addressed by Web 3.0
Jim Hartsema
Shaping the Future with Secure Digital Identity – Empowering TrustAmsterdam
Serendip
Peter van Gorsel
https://ver.id/
https://neurofied.com/
https://vogin-ip-lezing.net/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/vangorsel/
Intellectual curiosity is:
neither a luxury,
nor is it a diversion.
It is a competitive edge.
Editing, sales, publishing, copywriting
Gamification and storytelling,
Cultuur & marketing and PR,
Strategy and business development
pgorsel(at)xs4all.nl
pgorsel123(at)gmail.com
peter(at)ver.id
Climate Change Success Story
Circular Economy
Moving towards a circular economy, where waste is minimized, materials are reused, and products are designed for longevity, reduces resource consumption and emissions from production processes.
The circular economy is a key concept in addressing climate change because it aims to minimize waste, maximize resource efficiency, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the entire life cycle of products and services. By shifting from a traditional linear economy (take, make, dispose) to a circular model, we can significantly decrease the carbon footprint of industries and society. Here's how the circular economy helps combat climate change:
1. Reducing Resource ExtractionIn a circular economy, materials are reused, repaired, remanufactured, or recycled rather than extracted from nature. Reducing the need for new raw materials (such as metals, fossil fuels, and minerals) lowers emissions from mining, logging, and transportation. It also conserves ecosystems, which play a vital role in absorbing carbon dioxide (CO2).
2. Minimizing Waste and Emissions
By keeping products and materials in use for longer through reuse, refurbishment, and recycling, the circular economy reduces the emissions associated with the production and disposal of goods. Waste decomposition in landfills and incineration releases methane and CO2, but reducing waste cuts these emissions.
3. Enhancing Energy Efficiency
Manufacturing new products from recycled materials generally requires less energy than producing them from virgin resources. For example, recycling aluminum uses 95% less energy than producing new aluminum from raw bauxite ore. This translates to significant reductions in emissions from industrial processes.
4. Decarbonizing Supply Chains
Circular business models, such as product-as-a-service or sharing platforms (e.g., renting instead of owning), encourage more efficient use of goods. This reduces the overall demand for new products, leading to lower emissions in supply chains, including production, packaging, and shipping.
5. Promoting Sustainable Consumption
The circular economy encourages a shift toward sustainable consumption patterns. It involves designing products for durability, repairability, and recyclability. Consumers are empowered to buy fewer, better products that last longer, which leads to lower emissions associated with manufacturing and disposal.
6. Circular Agriculture and Food Systems
In agriculture, circular principles promote regenerative farming practices, nutrient recycling, and waste reduction. This helps reduce emissions from fertilizers, pesticides, and food waste. Sustainable farming techniques, such as crop rotation and composting, also sequester carbon in the soil.
7. Enabling Renewable Energy Technologies
Circular economy principles can also be applied to renewable energy infrastructure, such as wind turbines and solar panels. By designing these technologies with recyclable components and longer lifespans, we reduce the environmental and carbon impacts associated with their production and disposal.
8. Innovation and New Business Models
The circular economy drives innovation by encouraging closed-loop systems, where products are designed to be recycled or disassembled at the end of their life cycle. These models, combined with technological advancements, foster lower-carbon industries by reducing the need for new materials and energy.
9. Carbon Sequestration in Materials
Some circular approaches involve the use of carbon-negative materials, such as bio-based products or construction materials that absorb more carbon during their life cycle than they emit. This helps in directly removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
10. Aligning Economic and Environmental Goals
By decoupling economic growth from resource consumption, the circular economy creates opportunities for economic development while reducing environmental impact. This is a critical factor in meeting global climate targets, as it allows businesses to grow without increasing their carbon emissions.
Impact on Climate Change
The circular economy directly contributes to mitigating climate change by addressing one of the root causes: the overconsumption of resources and the waste it generates. According to some estimates, implementing circular economy strategies could reduce global GHG emissions by up to 45% across industries like manufacturing, construction, and agriculture. This approach supports international climate goals like those set by the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to below 2°C.
In short, by promoting resource efficiency, waste reduction, and innovation, the circular economy can significantly lower carbon emissions and help transition toward a more sustainable, climate-resilient future.
Reduce / Reuse / Recycle / Recover
Circular Economy: Rethinking Waste and Resources (21 Minutes)
by BioTech Whisperer
In this enlightening video, we explore the concept of the circular economy, a transformative approach that redefines how we think about waste and resource management. Discover the key principles of the circular economy, including reducing, reusing, and recycling, and how they contribute to sustainable development. We will discuss real-world examples of circular economy practices in various industries and the benefits they bring to businesses, communities, and the environment. Whether you are a student, entrepreneur, or sustainability advocate, this guide will provide you with valuable insights and practical strategies to embrace the circular economy and make a positive impact on our planet.
Resources
Reduce
Reduce: because less is more (efficient)
Reducing the consumption of natural resources is the last R-strategy in the small loops cluster. It aims to increase the efficiency of product manufacturing or use. Doing so results in using fewer natural resources and producing less waste. This also increases the efficiency or use of a product. It can translate into fewer individually owned cars, fewer lawnmowers, lighter designs, and a smaller global material footprint. Reducing resource use during the entire life cycle of a product happens at both production and use phases. At the production phase, processes can be optimised via digital tools, lean manufacturing methods, and bio-based materials.
Pure Waste’s clothing is made of 100% recycled fibres, containing 60% recycled cotton and 40% recycled polyester from bottles. One t-shirt has a water footprint of 1.2 litres and a carbon footprint of 1.1 kilograms, while the same shirt manufactured from virgin materials uses 1,426 litres of water and produces 2.1 kilograms of CO2. Eliminating virgin fibres from their supply chain saved 4,907,070,999 litres of water and 3,091,056 kilograms of CO2 emissions as of December 2022. - Circularise
MicrosoftIndustry: Technology
Practices: Microsoft aims to be carbon negative by 2030 and to reduce water use by replenishing more than it consumes. Its data centers are designed to reduce water and energy consumption significantly, and the company is focused on shifting toward sustainable hardware production and recycling practices.Industry: Consumer Goods
Practices: Unilever’s “Sustainable Living Plan” targets reducing waste, emissions, and water use. They’re moving towards sustainable sourcing, utilizing renewable energy, and innovating packaging to minimize plastic waste.Industry: Technology
Practices: Apple aims to use only recycled or renewable materials in all its products and packaging, striving to make a closed-loop supply chain. They've committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2030, and their headquarters and data centers run on 100% renewable energy.
Reuse
Reuse is the action or practice of using an item, whether for its original purpose or to fulfill a different function. It should be distinguished from recycling, which is the breaking down of used items to make raw materials for the manufacture of new products. - Wikipedia
Reduce Strategy: Loop partners with major brands to create reusable packaging, cutting down on single-use plastics. By reducing disposable packaging waste, Loop helps brands extend the lifecycle of their materials.
TerraCycle's goal is to focus on hard-to-recycle materials, developing circular solutions for otherwise linear systems. Today we recycle millions of pounds of such material on a weekly basis, diverting it from our landfills and incinerators.When looking at a new waste stream we first focus on moving it from a linear disposal system to a circular one, and then over time to a platform that is as closed loop as technically possible.
Reduce Strategy: Patagonia focuses on reducing the consumption of new raw materials by promoting repair, reuse, and recycling of its products. Its "Worn Wear" program encourages customers to buy used products and offers repair services, reducing the need for new items.
Reduce Strategy: IKEA aims to become a fully circular business by 2030, incorporating sustainable materials and reducing waste across its value chain. The company is working on designs that use fewer resources, prioritizing recyclable and renewable materials.
Recycle
Reusing and recycling products would slow down the use of natural resources, reduce landscape and habitat disruption and help to limit biodiversity loss. Another benefit from the circular economy is a reduction in total annual greenhouse gas emissions. - European Parliament
AdidasRecycling Strategy: Adidas has developed products like its Parley Ocean Plastic line, using recycled ocean plastics in the production of shoes and apparel. Additionally, its Futurecraft Loop shoe is designed to be fully recyclable, encouraging a closed-loop system.
Recycling Strategy: Coca-Cola has committed to a World Without Waste initiative, aiming to collect and recycle a bottle or can for every one it sells by 2030. They focus on creating 100% recyclable packaging and increasing the recycled content in their products.
Recycling Strategy: L’Oréal has integrated recycling into its supply chain by using recycled plastic packaging. Its "Sharing Beauty With All" sustainability program includes commitments to 100% recycled or bio-based packaging by 2030.
Recover
Value recovery models focus on the application of recycle or recover strategies in a products' after-use phase. Products and materials are re-processed to minimise wastage and resource use. - The Circular City Funding Guide
VeoliaRecovery Strategy: Veolia is a global leader in resource management and waste recovery. The company operates waste-to-energy facilities that convert municipal and industrial waste into electricity and heat. Veolia also focuses on recovering valuable resources like metals, plastics, and chemicals from waste streams, ensuring minimal material ends up in landfills.
Reworld (Covanta)Recovery Strategy: Reworld (Covanta) specializes in waste-to-energy solutions, converting non-recyclable waste into electricity through incineration. In addition to generating energy, Reworld recovers metals from the ash produced during the combustion process, providing both environmental and economic benefits.
RenewiRecovery Strategy: Renewi is a European company dedicated to maximizing the recovery of valuable resources from waste. They operate facilities that sort and process waste, focusing on turning residual waste into energy, compost, or materials for new products. Renewi has pioneered solutions to recover energy from organic waste through anaerobic digestion.
Futurist Portrait
Markku Wilenius
UNESCO Chair in Learning Society and Futures of Education
Dr. Markku Wilenius (born in 1961) has acted among the very few professors of futures studies in the whole world. His genuine interests lie in understanding the challenges and possibilities of the long-term future and bringing this foresight to the strategic thinking of society and companies. During his career he has served in surplus amount of major companies and high-level governmental bodies to bring new insight to their future activities.Markku has always actively pursued to foster and systematize the position of strategic thinking inside organisations. In this work, he has developed and articulated the concept of visionary leadership vis-à-vis opportunistic short term thinking. His mission here has been to “futurise” the organisations, but particularly their management teams, to lead the everyday activities of the company from the basis of more fundamental and far-reaching vision.
Markku has had a deep interest in understanding how culture can be seen more clearly as an asset for the whole society as well as for the companies. In 2002-2004 he lead a major study where he, together with his research group, looked more closely at the interaction between culture and economics with the idea that this insight can contribute essentially to our understanding of the future competitiveness of Finnish society at large. As a result, in 2004 he published a widely appreciated book “Towards Creative Economy”. He has continued this work by using values assessment methods with a number of companies to analyse their current organisation culture.
In Allianz SE, world’s largest property & casualty insurance company, Wilenius focussed first on strategic research and development in Group Development, building new model for assessing trends that have potentially major impact on Allianz. During 2009, he led Trends & strategy unit in Economic Research & Corporate development department. He launched “Rejuvenating Allianz” initiative that led to development of a new service model to match the growing demands of flexibility and convenience in the market.
In the recent years, Prof. Wilenius has been increasingly active internationally and he has spent considerable time abroad with various projects. He is Vice-Chair of the advisory board of the European Futurists Conference, a body for professional European futurists. In 2001 Wilenius was awarded the international Aurelio Peccei –prize by L’eta Verde organisation, based in Rome. As natural a part of his scientific activities, he has given innumerable lectures is his home universities as well as abroad. In 2009 Emerald Literary Network awarded him for the most outstanding article of the year.
His current major research effort is to understand the long socio-economic waves and their implications particularly to Finnish economy and society.
Futurist Dr. Markku Wilenius Describes the Value of a Circular Economy
by 12 Geniuses
Futurist Dr. Markku Wilenius and 12 Geniuses host Don MacPherson discuss the opportunities for addressing homelessness, food insecurity, and energy inefficiency by using resources more efficiently. Dr. Wilenius goes on to talk about the transformative possibilities available by creating a global circular economy.In the full episode (S10 | E8), futurist Dr. Markku Wilenius paints a picture of life in 2073 with a focus on how humans will reimagine our relationship with nature. Rather than just extracting resources from nature, we will address climate change through regenerative agriculture, reforestation, and even by leaning on algae as both a food source and building material. Dr. Wilenius ends the conversation by talking about how technologies like blockchain, the Internet of Things, and Artificial Intelligence will enable humans to become incredibly efficient with our resources in the future.
Dr. Markku Wilenius is a Professor of Futures Studies and the UNESCO Chair in Learning Society and Futures of Education with more than 25 years of research and experience in future studies. He works with governments, businesses, and NGOs - like Dubai Future Academy, Finland Futures Research Centre, Allianz, The Club of Rome, and IPCC - to make critical decisions using strategic intelligence. In recent years his research interests include understanding socio-economic long-term waves, the future of the financial industry, the future of the forest industry, and the future of non-hierarchical organizations.
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