Club of Amsterdam Journal, July / August 2022, Issue 245

Journals Archive
The Future Now Shows



Lead Article

Has Xi Jinping miscalculated in aligning himself with Vladimir Putin?
by Tony Walker, La Trobe University

Article 01

New climate insight revealed
Unexpected predictions from the military and
insurance industry on the effects of climate change

by Saul Boyle, Tom Bosschaert, Mark Ratcliff,
Except Integrated Sustainability B.V.

The Future Now Show

New World Order
with Hardy Schloer & Chris Edwards

Article 02

A new world order
VPRO Documentary

News about the Future

> Whole Body Digital Twin™
> Remedy Health Media

Article 03

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order
by Ray Dalio

Recommended Book

Sustainable mining in an AI-driven world
by Dr Kash Sirinanda

Article 04

Biases and creativity
by Peter van Gorsel

Climate Change Success Story

Artificial Intelligence & Robots

Futurist Portrait

John L. Petersen
Founder of The Arlington Institute

Africa, Artificial Intelligence, China, Climate Change,
Cryptocurrencies, Farming, Fixed Mindset, FOOD,
Food Insecurity, Global Political Trends, Growth Mindset,
Healthcare, Innovation, Insurance Industry, Law and Trade,
Macro Economics, Megatrends, Military Industry, Mining,
Neuroscience, New World Order, Political Choices,
Resilience, Risk, Robotics, Russia, Social Ecology,
Sustainability, USA, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping

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Tom Bosschaert: "We continue to face unprecedented droughts, wildfires, and flooding. All the while, our leaders and media pundits continue to spout contradictions that reinforce confusion. It isn't easy to know where to turn and predict how our future will look - either in terms of environmental disasters or how society will deal with them."

John L. Petersen: "At The Arlington Institute, we believe that to understand the future, you need to have an open mind and cast a very wide net."

Ray Dalio: "I'm Ray Dalio, I’m a global macro investor. I have done that for about 50 years in all liquid markets in the world — and the world is changing. And I learned it by having surprises in my lifetime, that many of the things that surprised me didn't happen in my lifetime before, but happened many times in history."



Lead Article

Has Xi Jinping miscalculated in aligning himself with Vladimir Putin?
Tony Walker, La Trobe University


Tony Walker


As Russia’s attempt to intimidate Ukraine and, presumably, install a puppet regime stumbles into its second week, it is clear the Kremlin has miscalculated on several fronts.

Ukrainian resistance is proving more resilient than anticipated, and a global response, led by the United States, has been more unified and damaging to Russia’s interests than might have been expected.

If not turning into a debacle for Vladimir Putin, the Ukraine war is carrying with it risks for his tenure. Russia’s economic stability is in peril in the face of global economic sanctions such as have not been witnessed in a generation or more.

Putin’s apparent failure to anticipate the full extent of a co-ordinated international pushback against his recklessness remains a mystery.

However, in all of this there is a bigger question. This has to do with China’s contradictory responses to Russia’s ruthless breach of a neighbouring country’s sovereignty.

In the diplomatic history of the People’s Republic, there has been a consistent theme. This goes back to Premier Zhou Enlai’s declaration of the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence, adopted by the Bandung Conference of Non-Aligned Nations in 1955.

China has used these “five principles”, which begin with “mutual respect for each nation’s territorial integrity and sovereignty”, as a diplomatic shield ever since to rebut criticisms of its conduct internally and assert its views abroad.

Beijing, of course, has not always adhered to these five principles, such as its invasion of Vietnam in 1978, or its persistent border clashes with India, or its aggressive pursuit of its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea.

China’s resort to the five principles to assail others and defend its own misbehaviour has been nothing if not opportunistic.

Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai dines with US President Richard Nixon in 1972. AP/AAP

On the other hand, there has scarcely been a more flagrant breach of national sovereignty, and therefore the five principles, than Russia’s use of brute force to bring a neighbouring country to heel.

China’s responses to the Russian invasion have been contradictory. On one hand, it has sought to justify Putin’s gambit by suggesting an American-led NATO had brought such an outcome on itself by refusing to disavow Ukraine participation.

On the other, it has tried to reassert its belief in non-interference in the sovereign affairs of another country.

This has been an unedifying spectacle, and one that has called into question both the steadfastness of Chinese diplomacy and the judgment of its paramount leader, Xi Jinping.

As much as this is Putin’s war, it is also Xi’s most challenging and confounding moment on a world stage. If Putin and Xi are intent on ushering in a new world order, their experiment in shifting global building blocks is not going well.

A simple question arises. Will Xi continue to double down on a bad bet on Putin’s recklessness, or will he seek cover in China’s traditional adherence to the principles that Zhou Enlai laid down three-quarters of a century ago?

Put simply, will Xi’s ill-starred alignment with Putin, in which the Chinese leader declared in a joint communique in February the Russian leader was his “best friend”, place him in a diplomatic cul de sac?

If Putin has miscalculated in all of this, then so has Xi, in a year of great importance to him personally.

In Chinese Communist Party history, no events assume greater significance than sessions, each five years, of the National Party Congress.

The NPC’s 20th session since the founding of the Communist Party of China in 1921 will be held in October.

As things stand, it is anticipated Xi will be anointed for a further five year-term as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and president. This will breach the convention introduced during the Deng Xiaoping era that restricted these leadership roles to two terms.

As things stand, Xi Jinping will likely be elected China’s leader for another five years. Ng Han Guan/AP/AAP

Xi’s confirmation will invite questions as to whether he is being installed as Communist Party leader for life.

From Xi’s perspective, he will not want there to be questions about his judgment in the lead-up to this event.

What is sometimes overlooked in assessments of what is happening in China politically is that behind the scenes, debate and contentiousness, often bitter, are integral to leadership manoeuvring. Power struggles are not absent from this process.

The stakes are high in the world’s most populous country, and soon to be largest economy in US dollar terms. China is already the largest on a purchasing power parity basis.

Xi’s alignment with a Russian miscalculation is clearly not in his or China’s interests.

In this, the US-led response to Putin’s war in Ukraine raises the costs for China in its policy towards Taiwan. Global push-back against Chinese adventurism across the Taiwan Strait would dwarf what is now happening in Eastern Europe.

Inside the Chinese leadership there will be those who will no doubt hark back to the principles on which effective Chinese diplomacy has rested from the days of China’s emerging leadership of the non-aligned movement, through the Deng Xiaoping era to those of Xi’s predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

Deng’s “24-character” diplomatic strategy, which emerged in 1990 in response to China’s isolation after the Tiananmen Square bloodshed, guided Beijing for more than a generation until Xi began to preside over a more assertive foreign policy.

Loosely translated, Deng’s advice was:


Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.

In the years since, Deng’s words have been truncated to read “hide our capabilities, and bide our time” to suggest he was advocating a foreign policy of concealment. On this question there is no definitive answer.

Deng Xiaoping outlined his influential ‘24-character’ approach to a more assertive foreign policy. Neal Ulevich/AP/AAP

Since he succeeded Hu Jintao as party leader in 2012, Xi has deviated from both the Zhou and Deng principles in the conduct of Chinese foreign policy.

His alignment with Putin would have sat awkwardly with Zhou and Deng, both of whom understood China’s best interests were served by avoiding entanglements that would involve unnecessary cost.

In Xi’s case, the costs could be very high indeed. Nothing would serve China’s interests less than a disruption to global trade flows and a possible recession brought about by the overreach of its principal ally.

China’s economic well-being, and indeed Xi’s own tenure, depends on the country’s continued economic growth and its dominance as a trading powerhouse. At present, China accounts for about 19%, or nearly one-fifth, of global growth and 15% of global trade.

An upheaval that would stunt China’s ability to continue to export and grow its economy would be very bad news indeed for Xi, whose hold on power depends to a significant extent on his ability to continue to improve living standards.

All of this invites questions about Xi’s judgment and his ability to endure in a system that can be unforgiving. The Conversation

Tony Walker
, Vice-chancellor's fellow, La Trobe University


This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license.


Article 01

New climate insight revealed
Unexpected predictions from the military
and insurance industry on the effects of climate change

by Saul Boyle, Tom Bosschaert, Mark Ratcliff,
Except Integrated Sustainability B.V.



We continue to face unprecedented droughts, wildfires, and flooding. All the while, our leaders and media pundits continue to spout contradictions that reinforce confusion. It isn't easy to know where to turn and predict how our future will look - either in terms of environmental disasters or how society will deal with them.

Nevertheless, there is light - and some reasoned thinking - at the end of the tunnel of fear and panic. Our militaries and the global insurance industry, the world's largest and most powerful sectors, have the most to lose from climate change and are usually left holding the bag after a disaster. Despite this, they've been ignored in the climate debate and discussion of what the future may look like beyond 2030. This article reveals how they see the world, what they predict, and why we should be listening to them.

Carbon emissions from sourcing, refining, and using fossil fuels for energy is the most significant factor in causing climate change. We are already experiencing disrupted weather patterns and extreme events, but predicting what the consequences of climate change will be in another few decades is challenging. - Image: AP Photo

Losing the signal amongst the noise

Our media and social landscape are awash with scattered opinions, lies, and mistruths - finding unbiased and trustworthy information is hard enough to come by, let alone recognize.

On the one hand, doomsday reports declare we only have a few more years till the apocalypse is upon us. This reporting style is characterized by overly-simplistic language and focuses on temperature and sea-level rise measurements.

There's an almost endless emergence of projects, initiatives, and social enterprises that promise that it's their solutions that will avert this impending collapse. Each organization spins its own story in a bid to outshine others and convince the audience that they are our saviors and the sole tellers of truth.

On the other hand, many politicians and those supporting the status quo seek to downplay concerns to prevent alarm or emphasize power and control. Science and research institutes are often accused of exaggerating and manipulating data to increase their funding. Likewise, journalists also continue to face difficulties in the face of collapsing business models and an overly-opinionized media landscape.

Trying to forecast how economics and society will behave is near impossible and the current void of uncertainty and bias has muddied the waters even further. It's difficult enough to imagine anything about our present let alone our future.

The military and insurance industries have the most at stake and can't afford to play games. They are more pragmatic and realistic in how they view the world and offer great insight into how humanity will adapt.

Our militaries and insurance industries are the most pragmatic reliable predictors, not for climate change per se, but how we will overcome and cope with the regularity and uncertainty of extreme weather events. - Image: Vallarie Enriquez/NASA


What militaries and the insurance sector predict

It's not always easy to find, but accurate and neutral modeling to predict the most probable socio-economic and political impacts are in the public domain and available for all to see.

Firstly, the world's militaries, particularly the largest, have a host of reports available analyzing and projecting future outcomes. Many are risk assessments focused on current geopolitical weaknesses and crisis points that climate change will only expose and exaggerate. Militaries must plan for this and disregard any grandstanding that too many others in the debate prioritize.

Secondly, predictions and assessments of the global insurance industry are built from the need for managing liabilities and preventing losses. In either case, overvaluing or undervaluing their expenses after the fact will destroy their business model and their sustainability.

Even though they approach from different perspectives, these two groups inherently serve pragmatic needs. Neither engages in the social and political debate on if man-made climate change is real or not, and neither is seeking to gain support, validation, or votes from anyone.

Most importantly, neither group joins in the chorus of souls offering overly-optimistic suggestions about preventing climate change. Both industries work on the assumption that it won't be stopped and accept its inevitability, the reality we will face, and the real risks that will manifest.

These industries talk more about the impact on economics, the domestic and border security of nations, and the expectations for how insurance works and the increased financial risk.

Over the past several years, as climate-related disasters have increased in occurrence and severity, the military has more regularly managed and facilitated vital rescue and clean-up missions. - Image: AP Photo/Sang Tan

The future state of our climate

Sober predictions from the military and insurance world came about after seeing how society reacted to changes in climate. The observations go back to the early 1990s, but a similar pattern is predicted to shape our future and gives insight into what life may be like towards 2050.

Very few insiders or academics worth their weight in salt would be bold enough to suggest they know exactly how the world and how our climate will be like so far into the future. However, there is consensus that we won't be experiencing any dramatic shifts - our world will not suddenly flip upside down. Significant changes may happen but only in a series of small and incremental steps - much like the ones we are currently experiencing today.

The U.S. Department of Defense in 2019 said that "it is relevant to point out that [the] future... means only 20 years" time and that "projected changes will likely be more pronounced at the mid-century mark." (1) They also reveal that nothing unseen will happen - we are currently dealing with the impacts of climate change as they have already begun to spread across regions.

Both the military and insurance sectors agree that a slow increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and the compounding effect on others will be the norm. Looking even closer into our future, as a primary insurance industry report on climate change bluntly states: "due to slow, gradual change, the climate state of 2030 will not differ significantly from today." (2) In other words, with the passing of another decade, the extreme weather events will be similar to what we are seeing now - yet slightly increased in volatility and occurrence. The insurance industry is gambling an inconceivably large amount on this outcome but has determined it will work in their favor.

While never offering definitive or Nostradamus-style predictions and pointing to a specific date, the military and insurance industries can conceptualize and build a relatively clear understanding and predict what societal changes will happen.

We will all be in it together - it will not only be the undeveloped and poorer countries that many wrongly assume. As the impacts from climate change intensify across all regions, we may become a species based on recovering from previous disasters while preparing for the next. (3)

As major rivers are decreasing in flow and aquifers become depleted, it's predicted desertification and the ability to sustain agriculture will exponentially decrease in our most vulnerable regions. - Image:


Food supply, rising costs and political insecurity

The impacts of climate change are vast and currently unseen by many. However, a place where everyone will be able to witness it is the rising cost in food prices and supply chains - a long-term and upward trend for some time already.4

Droughts contribute to this and as they become more common, so does desertification. We see this already in cases like the Colorado River, where changing weather patterns have reduced annual flow, threatening the sustainability of many large cities and farmlands in the driest parts of the U.S. and Mexico.5

A failed harvest has more profound and persistent side effects than simply a lack of food. It threatens farms' economic viability and the survival of entire regions. This outcome will see a rise in claims by both individual and corporate farms to mitigate losses, and as risks become more significant, growth in claims and rise in insurance premiums.

The Department of Agriculture in the U.S. has mitigated the damage from increased claim-related costs by capping the amount paid by insurance companies. Anything beyond that, and most insurance companies get funding via brokers and banks.

However, the financing of these subsidy schemes comes directly from the U.S. Government's tax revenue, which utilizes brokers as middlemen.6 This band-aid solution has already cost U.S. taxpayers approximately US$65 billion between 2000-2016 and will continue to add to future costs and economic woes.

Despite difficulties, wealthier and more developed nations will have a much better chance to sustain their economies. As environmental stability and the adaptability of farmers in poorer countries decrease, the need to constantly reassess their economic sustainability increases - despite the need for local action, we also need to look at the viability of such financial programs from a global and political perspective.

There has been a long and sustained increase in food costs, showing no signs of easing. Increasing food prices and unaffordability of certain goods has proven to be a key indicator in social dissatisfaction and likely unrest. - image: Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press

The credibility of a nation-state, at least in part, lies in its ability to provide reliable and affordable food to its citizens. Climate change threatens to increase and compound the effects of any current food shortages, which will inherently increase prices and threaten a community's autonomy.

When prices for groceries increase to unacceptable levels, the most natural outcome is for citizens to become upset and complain. The next step, if possible, would be to vote in someone new who promises to address the issue. But when democracy is weak and elections fail to bring the correct change, food insecurity acts as a psychological and emotional accelerant, often stoking a relatively minor issue to become much worse.

The Arab Spring in the early 2010s was a prime example of this. What began in Algeria as a single protest for democratic reform against a backdrop of food and water insecurity across the entire Middle East. Shortly after the initial demonstration, a dozen other nations erupted in protest and riots, the side-effects we still see in countries like Libya and Syria. (7)

In the same region, the U.S. military acknowledged that "a severe drought in Syria from 2009 to 2012 negatively impacted the agriculture industry, stoking unrest that led the nation into its ongoing civil war." (8)

When looking to the future, the most pressing climate change-related issue in 2050, from national security and militarized point of view, will be increased geopolitical volatility, likely exacerbated by food insecurity and other associated matters.

Sea levels have been rising and will continue to cause large-scale flooding and erosion. Both militaries and insurance providers agree that it won't be significant singular events. Instead, we will see a series of small and incremental damages over many years. - Image: Getty/The Hill

Our seas will continue to rise

The insurance and military accept that sea level will rise and produce sustained and costly impacts. The United States Naval College at Annapolis is a well-documented and poignant example of how this will happen.

The U.S. Department of Defense conducted a series of studies about projected flooding rates at the college site. They concluded that the academy "is expecting the sea level to rise between 0.6 and 3.6 feet by 2050, putting most of the campus at risk of flooding. The academy will be faced with the tough decision of either mitigating the risk by investing a significant amount of money to install pumps and barriers or by abandoning parts of the campus altogether." (9)

This base is just one of the 70 within the U.S. that will be similarly affected within the same time frame. The DoD focused purely upon the impact upon their bases only. While military bases rarely exist in residential areas, we can expect a similar effect on other civilian areas.

The starkest aspect to the DoD's assessment is the socially pragmatic assessment, despite being written by a body focused on geopolitical risk assessment. They own a lot of lands, and to quote them: "The DoD's global property holdings are worth nearly $1.2 trillion. As the frequency of extreme weather events has increased, the DoD must consider the related risks and make wise investment decisions to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather on the DoD's mission." (10)

If the owner of a US$1.2 trillion property portfolio begins talking about abandoning their sea-front properties, as they are unviable for the next twenty to thirty years, how can any other landowner not do the same?

Insurance premiums in these affected places have already begun to increase, more extreme weather events will follow, and the cycle will repeat. It will become increasingly difficult and expensive to live in coastal areas. Hence, it will affect any region's economic and environmental sustainability.

Wealthier nations will have better chances of constructing more extensive flood defenses. However, the increase in government spending may lead to complaints from other regions about why they should fund such protection.

Despite defense systems, sudden surges from large storms will still have dramatic and devastating effects on populations in areas that cannot predict or prepare for them. A prime example of such an event was when Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans and the subsequent departure of over 100,000 people leaving the region with most yet to return. (11)

The need to pay for the construction and maintenance of protecting such places will only add to the difficulties of flood-prone regions. The Bank of England's insurance industry watchdog revealed that Lloyd's of London estimated that "20cm of sea-level rise since the 1950s increased Superstorm Sandy's (2012) surge losses by 30% in New York alone." (12)

The military and insurance industry acknowledge that rising sea levels are inevitable, along with widespread flooding and erosion. However, both suggest this won't happen suddenly and will likely be seen as a more gradual increase in relatively small events. We will recover, despite how inconvenient and disruptive.

As climate change makes life in some regions more complicated, many will leave, placing added pressures on existing and introducing new geopolitical and social tensions. The results of many of these mass migrations will mean that governments will have even less time and resources to address climate impacts. - Image: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger

Increased displacement of peoples

The displacement of people caused by political stress, either triggered or made worse by climate change, is a harsh reality of modern times. Nowhere is it more evident than on the southern U.S. border.

In July 2021, the Centre for Climate and Security said that the number of refugees from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras has increased each year consistently since 2012. A majority of them "come from Central America's Dry Corridor (CADC)... where extreme climatic events like prolonged droughts, coffee rust outbreak, and climate-induced disasters have seriously exacerbated social, economic, environmental and political vulnerabilities." (13)

These crises are expected to become more widespread as we move forward and more extreme climate-related events spread to different regions. In addition to international pressures, individual nations will also see significant population shifts within their borders, increasing challenges to those militaries, many of whom will be forced to deploy assets and help where existing infrastructure fails.

It should be noted that large movements of people are never solely due to climate change alone. Instead, it is usually combined with political, economic, and other social pressures, often resulting from extreme weather events and changes. The subject of refugees is emotive and takes up much political capital. Hence, it raises the crucial question of how we will respond to widespread displacement.

Investors and insurance firms are becoming increasingly more aware of climate change and how it will affect markets and certain industries. Something seen to be more sustainable to climate change is less risky and more attractive for those seeking longer-term gains. - Image: Reuters

Entrenched economic woes

Trying to work out how climate change affects us is difficult enough in the current era, let alone predicting what it will be like in another thirty years. However, specific indicators can help gain a more profound overview of the insurance industries' concerns.

The economic predictions for the 2030-2050 period are grim. A recent U.S. government report revealed that "the impacts of climate change beyond our borders are expected to increasingly affect our trade and economy... [and] cause substantial net damage to the U.S. economy throughout this century. Annual losses in some economic sectors are projected to reach hundreds of billions of dollars... more than the current gross domestic product (GDP) of many U.S. states." (14)

A British insurance report mimicked this stark prognosis by stating how the "2011 Thai floods caused US$45 billion of economic damage, which resulted in US$12 billion of insurance payments including claims arising from second-order effects such as supply chain interruption of global manufacturing firms." (15)

The insurance industry doesn't just ensure physical objects like buildings and stock. It has been insuring derivatives and other investments for years. It's their assessment of future risk management in the economic sector and how they identify the upcoming risk that is perhaps the most crucial insight into the needs of the future.

Climate change is affecting the global financial structure, and The Geneva Report revealed in 2019 how our world is shifting from a valuation perspective to a more systemic and sustainable approach. It showed that "investors are beginning to account for the effects that transitioning to lower-carbon economies may have on the long-term earning potential of carbon-intensive sectors." Also, there is an increasingly common tendency for investors to "consider the impact of climate change when making investment acquisition and disposition decisions." (16)

In other words, carbon-intensive business is becoming a much greater risk, and investors are beginning to take note. Sustainable and more systemic investing that takes on the inevitability of economic disruption and seeks more long-term solutions becomes about more than just ethics and has the potential to become profitable.

Even fossil-fuel-heavy industries such as automotive, manufacturing, and air travel are beginning to move away from a purely profit-driven ideology and to a more rational one that assesses all possible risks involved in doing business as usual. This change is a significant and positive step.

The past few years have seen many unforeseen disasters, such as the devastating flooding of the Ahr Valley in Germany, July 2021. It makes one wonder - are we now living in the dystopian future we had imagined for the future? - Image: AP/Michael Probst

Our dystopian present

This article summarizes the work done and forecasts made by risk management and security experts. At first, one may think it suggests a rather grim and uncomfortable world, whereby 2050, the impacts of climate change carry our civilization from crisis to crisis. Political demagoguery, food insecurity, higher prices, and shortages will be commonplace for all.

It suggests a world of increasing economic volatility. The only constant will be the environmental crises and streams of refugees who we'll be too busy dealing with than to care about climate change.

It sounds dystopian, but it's worth considering - could it also be an accurate description of the world as it is now?

There is one crucial example: let's consider July 2021.

During this one month alone, our world witnessed record heat blooms over the Pacific Northwest, killing over 500 people in British Columbia. (17) At the same time, record heatwaves were experienced in both Scandinavia and New Zealand. (18) (19) The sad reality is that excessive heat has killed over 5 million people since 2000 and will continue to do so. (20)

During the same July, we also saw unprecedented flooding and damage in Europe and China. (21) (22) It was estimated all worldwide flooding impacted up to two billion people. (23)

Had we, in 1991, said that in thirty years, events of this scale and disruption would be witnessed in just one month, people would have dismissed it as a dystopian and exaggerated view. And yet, this is not the case today.

Both the military and insurance industries seem to be less driven by mitigating against disaster, and instead focus more on adaptation and coping with their inevitability and subsequent rebuilding. - Image: Fairfield City Champion

We have successfully normalized the encroachment of climate change and extreme weather events over the last 30 years. While the entire world recognizes the dangers, we still don't see a coming together of nations in cooperation.

Instead, we see widespread complacency and an acceptance of these events. In reality, most of these weather events are localized and don't affect most. Those who live through disastrous events continue to exist and cope with whatever life brings us.

What was once unseen and horrific has become the norm. There's no evidence to suggest that as we approach 2050, and as these events happen more often, we will respond any differently.

The world described in the reports from our militaries and insurance industries work upon these simple unspoken axioms. However, the nations where these industries work will continue doing what they do; although perhaps a little differently. Our world will gradually experience another new normal where, sadly, the world's less fortunate will be the most impacted. While relatively undisturbed, the rest of the world is likely to become accustomed and perhaps numb to the new realities.

A source for hope

Based on this assessment, one may easily conclude there is little we can do to avoid the disaster to come, right?

Nothing could be further from the truth. Making projections like this, paying close attention to stakeholders and their future assessments, is invaluable for those seeking pragmatic and practical solutions.

We can't avoid the effects of climate change, but we can shape our response. We can prevent errors and inaction by developing sustainable policy and behavioral changes now that will help us face the next century's inevitable climate realities.

Until we invent time travel, these predictions remain the closest to empirical data. Recognizing this and respecting parameters offers the most practical and effective way to plan and shape our future.

Except Integrated Sustainability B.V.


  1. Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense; Department of Defense; January 2019; P17, pdf
  2. The Geneva Association; 'Climate Change Risk for the Insurance Industry; pdf
  3. The International Military Council on Climate and Security (IMCCS); World Climate and Security Report 2021; pdf
  4. Food and Agriculture Organisation for the United Nations; World Food Situation; FAO Food Price Index; pdf
  5. US Bureau of Reclamation; July 16 2021; Reclamation’s July 24-Month Study implements contingency operations in the Upper Colorado River Basin;
  6. US Congress, Congressional Budget Office; 'CBO's April 2018 Baseline for Farm Programs' pdf;
  7. Scientific American; March 2013; 'Climate Change and Rising Food Prices Heightened Arab Spring';
  8. US Department of Defense, Office of the Inspector General; 'Top DoD Management Challenges, Fiscal Year 2021' ; 2020; pdf
  9. Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense; Department of Defense; January 2019; pdf
  10. Report on Effects of a Changing Climate to the Department of Defense; Department of Defense; January 2019; pdf
  11. The Data Centre; August 26 2016
  12. Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority; September 2015; 'The Impact of Climate Change Upon the UK Insurance Sector';
  13. The Centre for Climate and Security; July 13 2021; 'Central American Climate Migration is a Human Security Crisis';
  14. The United States Climate Science Special Report; Fourth National Climate Assessment;
  15. Bank of England Prudential Regulation Authority; September 2015; 'The Impact of Climate Change Upon the UK Insurance Sector';
  16. The Geneva Association; 'Climate Change Risk for the Insurance Industry; pdf
  17. Coroner Recorded Deaths in British Columbia, June 25-July 1 1996-2021;
  18. The Guardian, July 6th, 2021; 'Nordic Countries Endure Heatwave as Lapland records hottest day since 1914';
  19. The Guardian, July 5th, 2021; 'New Zealand Experiences hottest June on record despite Polar blast';
  20. The Lancet, July 1st 2021; Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study; Prof Qi Zhou. PhD et al;
  21. Science;July 20th 2021; Europe's deadly floods leave scientists stunned;
  22. NBC News; July 20th, 2021; 'Severe Flooding in Central China kills at least 12, traps subway riders in waist-high water';
  23. World Health Organisation; Health Topics- Floods Overview;



The Future Now Show

New World Order
with Hardy Schloer & Chris Edwards

Dr. Hardy Schloer in Interview by Chris Edwards in June 2022
In this head-on Interview Dr. Hardy Schloer talks about the world we live in, and the world to be. No subject was avoided, with all the current tough issued taken head on in a fascinating 1 hour and 40-minute roundup of the global ecosphere. Focus of the interview was directed towards many subjects, such as megatrends, macroeconomics, the status of the USA in the world, superpower competition, crypto currencies, global political trends, climate change, law and trade, and most of all the social ecology of political choices made by different global societies.








Hardy Schloer
CEO & Founder, Schloer Consulting Group
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Chris Edwards
President, Oktium Middle East
United Arab Emirates

Felix B Bopp
Producer of The Future Now Show

The Future Now Show

You can find The Future Now Show also at

LinkedIn: The Future Now Show Group
YouTube: The Future Now Show Channel


Article 02

A New World order
by VPRO Documentary


It is more urgent than ever for Europe to become self-sufficient in energy. This is accompanied by major power shifts, both within and outside the EU. What will the energy transition mean for geopolitical relations?

Brussels wants to go green at lightning speed - and thus become less dependent on Russian gas and oil from the Middle East. As head of the cabinet of Frans Timmermans, Diederik Samsom is currently working in Brussels on 'his' Green Deal. According to Samsom, the need to be energy independent is greater than ever. The ambition is to extract the necessary green raw materials as close as possible, and preferably in Europe itself.

EU candidate member Serbia has become a contested field on the green raw materials chessboard because of this ambition. The country is rich in copper and lithium. The Chinese mining giant Zijin has already made headway there and recently opened a large copper mine, important for the construction of wind turbines.

But the EU is also looking at Serbian raw materials with interest. And especially lithium. That mineral is in the ground in the Jadar Valley. The plans of mining company Rio Tinto have been put on hold by the government because of a massive popular uprising against the arrival of the mine. Many Serbs are not waiting for the lithium economy to arrive in their country.




News about the Future

> Whole Body Digital Twin™
> Remedy Health Media

Whole Body Digital Twin™

Your Whole Body Digital Twin™ is a dynamic, digital representation of your unique metabolism, built from thousands of data points gathered daily from non-invasive wearable sensors and self-reported preferences. Your Twin delivers individualized guidance to help you reverse and prevent multiple chronic metabolic diseases.

Chronic metabolic disease is causing havoc on human life. Over a billion people suffer from Metabolic Syndrome, and the number is growing. Diabetes alone afflicts hundreds of millions of people globally.

At Twin Health, we invented the Whole Body Digital Twin™ to reverse and prevent multiple chronic metabolic diseases. Such diseases have a single root cause — a damaged metabolism. Human metabolism is so extremely complex and dynamic that until now it has not been possible to solve for the root cause. I realized the latest advancements in sensors, AI and digital twin technology can be combined with advanced medical science to precisely solve the root cause for the first time. This inspired us to create the Whole Body Digital Twin.

Our clinical research team is conducting the world’s first randomized controlled trial for reversing chronic metabolic disease using digital twin technology. Trial data published in the American Diabetes Association’s Diabetes journal shows first-of-their-kind health outcomes.



Remedy Health Media

Remedy Health Media is a leading digital platform that serves millions of patients, caregivers and healthcare professionals with information and insights to effectively navigate the healthcare landscape.

Remedy Health Media’s mission is to empower patients and caregivers with information and tools to efficiently navigate the healthcare landscape, and as a result, achieve better health utilizing our family of healthcare destinations.

Our robust digital platforms offers emotionally engaging health content, self-help tools, and real patient stories that connect with millions of readers. Through the lens of those living with chronic illness and their caregivers, we provide the means to protect and enhance their health so they can enjoy rich, fulfilling lives.
And we serve a community of healthcare professionals with the goal of giving them instant access to expert opinions and the most current information to help them deliver the best possible care to their patients.

We are passionate about sharing inspiring stories from real patients, publishing in-depth condition-specific content from real experts to support communities of patients, caregivers and HCPs.


Article 03

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order
by Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio: "
I believe the world is changing in big ways that haven’t happened before in our lifetimes but have many times in history, so I knew I needed to study past changes to understand what is happening now and help me to anticipate what is likely to happen.

I shared what I learned in my book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and my hope is that this animation gives people an easy way to understand the key ideas from the book in a simple and entertaining way. In the first 18 minutes, you’ll get the gist of what drives the “Big Cycle” of rise and decline of nations through time and where we now are in that cycle. If you give me 20 minutes more to watch the whole thing, and I will show you how the big cycle worked across the last 500 years of history — and what the current world leading power, the United States, needs to do to remain strong.




Ray Dalio

A global macro investor for more than 50 years, Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates out of his two-bedroom apartment in NYC and ran it for most of its 47 years, building it into the largest hedge fund in the world. Ray remains an investor and mentor at Bridgewater and serves on its board. He is also the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles: Life and Work, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and Principles for Navigating Big Debt Crises. He graduated with a B.S. in Finance from C.W. Post College in 1971 and received an MBA degree from Harvard Business School in 1973. He has been married to his wife, Barbara, for more than 40 years and has three grown sons and five grandchildren. He is an active philanthropist with special interests in ocean exploration and helping to rectify the absence of equal opportunity in education, healthcare, and finance.



Recommended Book

Sustainable mining in an AI-driven world
by Dr Kash Sirinanda

This book is aimed at a general mining audience wanting to understand the future of the mining sector. In some of the areas covered in the book, there are mining companies which are leading and some that are falling far behind. In addition, some of the concepts discussed are starting to emerge in the mining sector; others are not. The contents of the book articulate a vision for futuristic mining. They discuss concepts of futuristic mining and operating models, and present compelling arguments about where the industry should be heading in terms of AI and sustainability.

The book highlights how a mining company can thrive in all the complex scenarios and highly volatile markets. It is written at a level to ensure that anyone in the mining industry or new to mining industry can easily follow the content, from university students to senior executives and people transitioning from operational roles to technology roles in mining. Technology is changing at an ever-increasing pace, so some new technologies will be emerging, and some may become obsolete. The book also highlights how technology and innovation will revolutionise the world of mining in the coming years. The information is presented so as not to expose uplift numbers and client details. Names of start-ups have not been included as they can become obsolete due to the nature of start-ups.

It should be emphasised that each and every individual who works in this industry needs to make this futuristic mining journey happen. Hopefully the ideas put forward will inspire members of the mining industry to think differently and to define, deploy and transform a particular mining company. AI and sustainable business models are rapidly becoming the new norm in the mining sector. Industries that do not constantly learn and adapt will fall behind and miss out on important commercial opportunities. Over time this translates into missed profits and threats to company survival.

Kash Sirinanda

Kash Sirinanda is a futurist, an engineer, a mathematician, a consultant and a serial entrepreneur. He is the founder of Mine Connector, Mine Mutual, Elite Futurists, and Cofounder of Mine Care, and has a doctorate in mine planning and optimization from the University of Melbourne, Australia. Kash has been working on various mining projects which include due diligence, AI, operations, analytics, optimization and digital in different commodities around the globe. He is a keynote speaker and he provides mining leaders with strategic direction, and visionary leadership. He constantly challenges current business models in mining companies to be open to possibilities in innovation and technology and to build a better future for the mining sector.


Article 04

Biases and creativity
by Peter van Gorsel

Peter van Gorsel

Biases and creativity

Thoughts and feelings are integral to understanding mankind. Most of the mental processing happens outside of conscious awareness. In order to dig a little deeper, the implicit association test (IAT) allows us insight into parts of the mind that people "are unable to express, either because they do not want to, or because they do not even know they possess them" (Smith and Nosek, 2010). Let's see how that spins out in creativity and the biases hindering creativity.

The hedgehog, the fox and Tim Cook
Two years of development, thousands of engineering hours and Apple's new product was ready for a spectacular launch. Or not? Something was holding it back: the disagreement between the CEO, Tim Cook and Apple's chief designer Jony Ives. The usual known battle between numbers and creativity. Ive was Apple's secret weapon, its creative core. He was the man behind the clear and pure lines. Cook wanted the marketing in the lead and not the design, let alone letting Ives run the launch.
Under Jobs it had been obvious that Ives was in total control of design, and launch was part of design. In Wall Street the financial community feared that if Ives ever left it would shave off a significant share of the value of Apple. Well, after a disagreement he did leave, to be hired back later as a consultant. What is behind this fear of creative thinking and why do managers shrink back from creative and sometimes unorthodox solutions? To find out we need to take a closer look at human cognition.

Creativity and why we don't like it
We applaud creativity but we don't like it. We like it in children because then it is still harmless but in grown-ups and especially colleagues, we are afraid of the disruptive quality of their creativity. There is even a strong association between the concept of creativity and other negative associations like vomit and poison. These words come from the mouth of Jack Goncola, a business professor at the University of Illinois at Urban Champaign. Goncola has spent the last decade studying the underlying factors that motivate and hinder creators, innovators and change agents. In the fast-changing environment of modern business this has become a pressing question for many managers and leaders.

Don't rock the boat
Studies show that we lean towards the status quo. A.k.a. don't rock the boat; we harbour an implicit belief that status quo means safety and seek protection in the group we work with. Yet creativity is always lauded as the life blood of business and life changing innovations, spellbinding entertainment, and great art. However, preceding that appreciation is usually a threshold that stops ideas, or concepts taking hold, surviving and let alone being executed. Who doesn't know the frustration when it seems that you are standing ankle deep in the organizational mud?

In the way of change
The science ofimplicit bias shows that what people say about creativity isn't necessarily how they really feel about it. And that doesn't only go for creativity.
In social identity theory, an implicit biasis an unconscious association, belief, or attitude toward any social group. Due to implicit biases, people may often attribute certain qualities or characteristics to all members of a particular group, a phenomenon known as stereotyping. In many circumstances the implicit bias can and will get in the way of change. The behaviour of shirking away from creativity caused by implicit bias affect many areas of the organization, such as marketing, sales and above all innovation. We think that the current definition of implicit bias is too reductionist and that this bias can affect organizations, markets and brands. The reason behind that is that these areas are heavily influenced by creativity. Especially in Organizational Change Management (OCM)it can be a serious roadblock on the way to lasting and meaningful change.

Implicit and explicit
As mentioned at the beginning, it is important to realize that implicit biases operate almost entirely on an unconscious level. While explicit biases and prejudicesare intentional and controllable, implicit biases are less so. Sneakily hiding behind socially acceptable behaviour or linguistically appropriate noises they can expose the dark side of the organization. Staff and co-workers may even express explicit disapproval or approval of a certain creative idea, attitude or belief while still harbouring similar biases on a more unconscious level.
The reason for this implicit bias against creativity can be traced back to the fundamentally disruptive nature of novel concepts, plans, and original creations.
There is always the uncertainty of undesirable results, backlash, and loss of face that will create unrest and instability. The urge to avert risk is very strong and Dr Mueller of the University of San Diego noticed many CEOs and company managers professed to want creativity but reflexively turned down novel ideas. Be careful what you wish for, seems to be the right expression here. Only every once and a while a Steve Jobs or Elon Musk comes along who forces his (creative and business) vision on the organization to show us that biases can and will work disruptively as we have mentioned above in the case of Jon Ives and Tim Cook.

Nodding heads and leadership
Needless to state that implicit biases against the new can and will seriously hamper changes that are necessary in an organization. Who needs nodding heads around a meeting table or in a strategy meeting when leadership needs to convince or even tempt stakeholders, management, or workers that changes are the way forward. Leaders will say "we're innovative" and when the idea goes nowhere, the employees are angry or afraid. Especially middle managers who are expected to meet the metrics of change are faced with a career threatening paradigm. This creates a conundrum because organizations in uncertain circumstances may really need creative solutions. It is the role of leadership to recognize the processes and biases that get in the way of creativity and change. To facilitate staff, take away barriers and accept that mistakes will be made on the road to change. The way to do that maybe by looking at the mindset that is prevalent in an organization.

Growth Mindset and Fixed Mindset
Why are some people devastated by failures and setbacks whereas others find ways to learn from failures and rebound? Stanford professor Carol Dweck answered this question by introducing the terms growth mindset and fixed mindset. Dweck has held the position of Professor of Psychology at Stanford University since 2004, teaching developmental psychology, theories of the self and independent studies.
Growth mindset is the understanding that abilities are flexible and can be developed through effort and resilience. The fixed mindset, on the other hand, is the belief that abilities are innate and cannot be changed. Growth mindset has been applied to corporate environments and has been found to increase overall productivity and performance. Intuitively this seems to make total sense. Norms of innovation encourage novel ideas and approaches which help develop new products or services. Employees that exhibit a fixed mindset usually follow the same routines leading to the same outcomes. However, in companies that value growth mindset employees are empowered to innovate and progress. 49% of employees in GM companies report that the company fosters innovation.



Peter van Gorsel, former Dean of the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences now works with various companies in Gamification, storytelling and applied neurosciences. Neurofied is a management consulting and training company specialized in Brain & Behavior. We help teams and organizations design, implement, and optimize their change management, growth strategy, learning & development and much more with insights from behavioral psychology and neuroscience.
Since 2018, we have trained 1500+ professionals and worked with 50+ teams of companies like ABN AMRO, Tesla, Calvin Klein, and Adidas. We are also frequent speakers at universities and conferences.



Climate Change Success Story

Artificial Intelligence & Robots


How does artificial intelligence affect climate change?

Artificial intelligence could help in the fight against climate change. AI applications could help design more energy-efficient buildings, improve power storage and optimise renewable energy deployment by feeding solar and wind power into the electricity grid as needed.

How will artificial intelligence change the environment?
AI can in the future be applied to thousands of issues affecting the environment. For example using AI and data from NASA, researchers are able to identify patterns and monitor changes of land surfaces, such as decreasing sea area, ice caps surface area which can be used to determine future risks.

Source: Google

Currently the agricultural sector is emitting the fourth highest level of greenhouse gases. Switching to responsible robotic machinery can reduce the level of harmful emissions produced. Moving away from “traditional” fossil-fuelled machinery to using robots charged from renewable energy sources, such as wind and light, will help reduce these harmful emissions.

With climate change comes increased adverse weather conditions and more frequent droughts. As excess heat struggles to leave the Earth’s surface, moisture is taken from soil, leaving crops struggling to survive. These droughts lead to food insecurity, which is especially harmful in poorer, rural communities.

To help combat these issues, a team at the University of Missouri is using robots to collect data with the ultimate aim of developing drought tolerant crops. Using 3D technology, the team is able to study crops in greater detail, gaining a more thorough understanding of the reasons why some crops are able to grow during droughts. The objective is to gain enough data necessary to develop new types of drought-resilient crops.

Source: Robotical


Climate Change AI

Climate Change AI (CCAI) is an organization composed of volunteers from academia and industry who believe that tackling climate change requires concerted societal action, in which machine learning can play an impactful role. Since it was founded in June 2019 (and established as a US domestic non-profit on June 14, 2021), CCAI has led the creation of a global movement in climate change and machine learning, encompassing researchers, engineers, entrepreneurs, investors, policymakers, companies, and NGOs.


EcoRobotix offers precise, reliable and affordable robotic solutions, which make farmers’ lives easier in producing healthy food.

We develop, manufacture and commercialise innovating, energy-saving farming machines, which allow both the ecological impact of modern farming and its costs to be reduced.

We thus contribute to the emergence of farming which respects the environment, focused on preserving soils and hydrological resources, by using a minimal amount of energy.

The Plantoid Project

The STREP PLANTOID Project will aim at designing, prototyping, and validating a new generation of ICT hardware and software technologies inspired from plant roots, called PLANTOIDS, endowed with distributed sensing, actuation, and intelligence for tasks of environmental exploration and monitoring. PLANTOIDS take inspiration from, and aim at imitating, the amazing penetration, exploration, and adaptation capabilities of plant roots.

Plants have evolved very robust growth behaviours to respond to changes in their environment and a network of highly sensorized branching roots to efficiently explore the soil volume, mining minerals and up-taking water. PLANTOID has two major goals:

1) to abstract and synthesize with robotic artefacts the principles that enable plant roots to effectively and efficiently explore and adapt to underground environments;
2) to formulate scientifically testable hypotheses and models of some unknown aspects of plant roots, such as the role of local communication among root apices during adaptive growth and the combination of rich sensory information to produce collective decisions.

The PLANTOID artefact will be composed of a network of sensorized and actuated roots, displaying rich sensing and coordination capabilities as well as energy-efficient actuation and high sustainability, typical of the Plant Kingdom. Each PLANTOID root will consist of an apex that comprises sensors, actuators, control units, and by an elongation zone that mechanically connects the apex and the trunk of the robot. The new technologies expected to result from PLANTOID concern energy-efficient actuation systems, chemical and physical micro-sensors, sensor fusion techniques, kinematics models, and distributed, adaptive control in networked structures with local information and communication capabilities. The foundational research program of PLANTOID will be carried out by a consortium of engineers, plant biologists, and computer scientists with demonstrated experience in interdisciplinary work.


SkyGrow aims to have a legacy of helping all others and we believe that the best way to achieve this is through planting Trees. Trees when planted and harvested correctly are a sustainable resource that can provide jobs, food, shelter, clean air and water and can be used to reset our economy to create a fairer, smarter and greener world. Unfortunately land continues to be cleared and species continue to be lost at an unprecedented rate. The impacts of climate change are intensifying and existing greenhouse gas emission statistics indicate that Australia is likely to fall short of meeting it’s Paris Agreement obligations of reducing emissions by 26-28 percent below the 2005 level (559.1 Mt CO2-e). Planting more Trees is a real solution to our environmental, societal and economic issues. On average 1.4 Trees absorb 1 tonne of Carbon Dioxide. This means that for Australia to meet the Paris Agreement and to absorb the required amount of Carbon Dioxide (156.5 Mt CO2-e) we could aim to be planting 220 Million Trees per year by 2030. At the very least, planting anywhere near this number would provide huge benefits to Australia. The real problem is that existing techniques are either slow or unsafe and the technologies that exist are expensive to operate and destructive to the environment. SkyGrow’s solution is to provide the world with fleets of autonomous Tree-planting ‘Growbots’ that aim to solve these problems. Our Growbots will be powered by renewable energy, plant using Global Positioning Systems and are operated by having two operators using a laptop to control a fleet of four Growbots. Although it is a huge challenge, we believe that implementing Growbots could create a green industry revolution and provide a scalable solution for creating better environmental, community and economic outcomes across Earth.


Smart Farming: How Robots and AI Can Help Us with Farming | Farming Technology
by DW Shift


The Future of Farming Robots - 13 High Tech Examples
by VentureX - Future Tech


Futurist Portrait

John L Petersen
Founder of The Arlington Institute


John L. Petersen is considered by many to be one of the most informed futurists in the world. He is best-known for writing and thinking about high impact surprises — wild cards — and the process of surprise anticipation. He edits and publishes an internationally acclaimed e-newsletter, FUTUREdition, which highlights weak signals and early indicators of significant futures. John conceived of, designed and developed the world's first national surprise anticipation center for the country of Singapore.

His current professional involvements include investing in and developing resources for both large, international projects and breakthrough technology start-up companies that have the potential of significantly changing the world. He is also the developer of a multi-use real estate project. .

John has led national non-profit organizations, worked in sales, manufacturing, real estate development, and marketing and advertising, mostly for companies he founded. A graduate electrical engineer, he has also promoted rock concerts; owned and produced conventions; and worked as a disc jockey – among other things.

Mr. Petersen's government and political experience include stints at the National War College, the Institute for National Security Studies, the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the National Security Council staff at the White House. He was a naval flight officer in the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve and is a decorated veteran of both the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars. He has served in senior positions for a number of presidential political campaigns and was an elected delegate to the Democratic National Convention in 1984. He was twice the runner-up candidate to be the Secretary of the Navy.

In 1989 Petersen founded The Arlington Institute (TAI), a non-profit, future-oriented research institute. TAI operates on the premise that effective thinking about the future is impossible without casting a very wide net. The “think tank” serves as a global agent for change by developing new concepts, processes and tools for anticipating the future and translating that knowledge into better present-day decisions.

An award-winning writer, Petersen's first book, The Road to 2015: Profiles of the Future was awarded Outstanding Academic Book of 1995 by CHOICE Academic Review, and remained on The World Future Society's best-seller list for more than a year. His second book, Out of the Blue: How to Anticipate Wild Cards and Big Future Surprises, was also a WFS best-seller. His coauthored article, “The Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?” was published in six different publication and was one of the most highly acclaimed writings on Y2K. His 1988 book-length report “The Diffusion of Power: An Era of Realignment” was used at the highest levels of American government as a basis for strategic planning. He has written papers on the future of national security and the military, the future of energy and the future of the media. John's third book, A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change, presents a template for individuals and organizations for dealing with highly uncertain futures.

Petersen is a past board member of the World Future Society, writes on the future of aviation for Professional Pilot magazine and is a member of the board of directors of the Charles A. and Anne Morrow Lindbergh Foundation. He is a network member of the Global Business Network and a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science. A provocative public speaker, he addresses a wide array of audiences around the world on a variety of future subjects.

John is a licensed pilot who enjoys aerobatic flying and an amateur radio operator. He lives in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia with his wife, Diane.


Big Change Coming






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