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Tom
Bosschaert: "We
continue to face unprecedented droughts, wildfires, and flooding. All
the while, our leaders and media pundits continue to spout contradictions
that reinforce confusion. It isn't easy to know where to turn and predict
how our future will look - either in terms of environmental disasters
or how society will deal with them."
John
L. Petersen:
"At The Arlington Institute, we believe that to understand the
future, you need to have an open mind and cast a very wide net."
Ray
Dalio:
"I'm Ray Dalio, I’m a global macro investor. I have done that
for about 50 years in all liquid markets in the world — and the
world is changing. And I learned it by having surprises in my lifetime,
that many of the things that surprised me didn't happen in my lifetime
before, but happened many times in history."
Lead Article
Has Xi Jinping
miscalculated in aligning himself with Vladimir Putin?
by
Tony Walker, La Trobe University
Tony Walker
As Russia’s
attempt to intimidate Ukraine and, presumably, install a puppet regime
stumbles into its second week, it is clear the Kremlin has miscalculated
on several fronts.
Ukrainian
resistance
is proving more resilient than anticipated, and a global response, led
by the United States, has been more unified and damaging to Russia’s
interests than might have been expected.
If not turning
into a debacle for Vladimir Putin, the Ukraine war is carrying with
it risks for his tenure. Russia’s economic stability is in peril in
the face of global
economic sanctions such as have not been witnessed in a generation
or more.
Putin’s apparent
failure to anticipate the full extent of a co-ordinated international
pushback against his recklessness remains a mystery.
However, in
all of this there is a bigger question. This has to do with China’s
contradictory
responses
to Russia’s ruthless breach of a neighbouring country’s sovereignty.
In the diplomatic
history of the People’s Republic, there has been a consistent theme.
This goes back to Premier Zhou Enlai’s declaration of the Five
Principles of Peaceful Co-existence,
adopted by the Bandung Conference of Non-Aligned Nations in 1955.
China has
used these “five principles”, which begin with “mutual respect for each
nation’s territorial integrity and sovereignty”, as a diplomatic shield
ever since to rebut criticisms of its conduct internally and assert
its views abroad.
Beijing, of
course, has not always adhered to these five principles, such as its
invasion of Vietnam in 1978, or its persistent border clashes with India,
or its aggressive pursuit of its territorial ambitions in the South
China Sea.
China’s resort
to the five principles to assail others and defend its own misbehaviour
has been nothing if not opportunistic.
Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai dines
with US President Richard Nixon in 1972.AP/AAP
On the other
hand, there has scarcely been a more flagrant breach of national sovereignty,
and therefore the five principles, than Russia’s use of brute force
to bring a neighbouring country to heel.
China’s responses
to the Russian invasion have been contradictory.
On one hand, it has sought to justify Putin’s gambit by suggesting an
American-led NATO had brought such an outcome on itself by refusing
to disavow Ukraine participation.
On the other,
it has tried to reassert its belief in non-interference
in the sovereign affairs of another country.
This has been
an unedifying spectacle, and one that has called into question both
the steadfastness of Chinese diplomacy and the judgment of its paramount
leader, Xi Jinping.
As much as
this is Putin’s war, it is also Xi’s most challenging and confounding
moment on a world stage. If Putin and Xi are intent on ushering in a
new
world order, their experiment in shifting global building
blocks is not going well.
A simple question
arises. Will Xi continue to double down on a bad bet on Putin’s recklessness,
or will he seek cover in China’s traditional adherence to the principles
that Zhou Enlai laid down three-quarters of a century ago?
Put simply,
will Xi’s ill-starred alignment with Putin, in which the Chinese leader
declared
in a joint communique in February the Russian leader was
his “best friend”, place him in a diplomatic cul de sac?
If Putin has
miscalculated in all of this, then so has Xi, in a year of great importance
to him personally.
In Chinese
Communist Party history, no events assume greater significance than
sessions, each five years, of the National
Party Congress.
The NPC’s
20th session since the founding of the Communist Party of China in 1921
will be held in October.
As things
stand, it is anticipated Xi will be anointed for a further five year-term
as general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party and president. This
will breach the convention introduced during the Deng Xiaoping era that
restricted these leadership roles to two terms.
As things stand, Xi Jinping will
likely be elected China’s leader for another five years.Ng
Han Guan/AP/AAP
Xi’s confirmation
will invite questions as to whether he is being installed as Communist
Party leader for life.
From Xi’s
perspective, he will not want there to be questions about his judgment
in the lead-up to this event.
What is sometimes
overlooked in assessments of what is happening in China politically
is that behind the scenes, debate and contentiousness, often bitter,
are integral to leadership manoeuvring. Power struggles are not absent
from this process.
The stakes
are high in the world’s most populous country, and soon to be largest
economy
in US dollar terms. China is already the largest on a purchasing power
parity basis.
Xi’s alignment
with a Russian miscalculation is clearly not in his or China’s interests.
In this, the
US-led response to Putin’s war in Ukraine raises the costs for China
in its policy towards Taiwan. Global push-back against Chinese adventurism
across the Taiwan Strait would dwarf what is now happening in Eastern
Europe.
Inside the
Chinese leadership there will be those who will no doubt hark back to
the principles on which effective Chinese diplomacy has rested from
the days of China’s emerging leadership of the non-aligned
movement, through the Deng Xiaoping era to those of Xi’s
predecessors, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.
Deng’s “24-character”
diplomatic strategy, which emerged in 1990 in response to China’s isolation
after the Tiananmen Square bloodshed, guided Beijing for more than a
generation until Xi began to preside over a more assertive foreign policy.
Observe
calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capabilities
and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never
claim leadership.
In the years
since, Deng’s words have been truncated to read “hide our capabilities,
and bide our time” to suggest he was advocating a foreign policy of
concealment. On this question there is no definitive answer.
Deng Xiaoping outlined his influential
‘24-character’ approach to a more assertive foreign policy.Neal
Ulevich/AP/AAP
Since he succeeded
Hu Jintao as party leader in 2012, Xi has deviated from both the Zhou
and Deng principles in the conduct of Chinese foreign policy.
His alignment
with Putin would have sat awkwardly with Zhou and Deng, both of whom
understood China’s best interests were served by avoiding entanglements
that would involve unnecessary cost.
In Xi’s case,
the costs could be very high indeed. Nothing would serve China’s interests
less than a disruption to global trade flows and a possible recession
brought about by the overreach of its principal ally.
China’s economic
well-being, and indeed Xi’s own tenure, depends on the country’s continued
economic growth and its dominance as a trading
powerhouse. At present, China accounts for about 19%, or
nearly one-fifth, of global growth and 15% of global trade.
An upheaval
that would stunt China’s ability to continue to export and grow its
economy would be very bad news indeed for Xi, whose hold on power depends
to a significant extent on his ability to continue to improve living
standards.
All of this
invites questions about Xi’s judgment and his ability to endure in a
system that can be unforgiving.
New
climate insight revealed
Unexpected predictions from
the military
and insurance industry on the effects of climate change
by Saul Boyle,
Tom Bosschaert, Mark Ratcliff,
Except Integrated Sustainability B.V.
We continue to face
unprecedented droughts, wildfires, and flooding. All the while, our
leaders and media pundits continue to spout contradictions that reinforce
confusion. It isn't easy to know where to turn and predict how our future
will look - either in terms of environmental disasters or how society
will deal with them.
Nevertheless, there
is light - and some reasoned thinking - at the end of the tunnel of
fear and panic. Our militaries and the global insurance industry, the
world's largest and most powerful sectors, have the most to lose from
climate change and are usually left holding the bag after a disaster.
Despite this, they've been ignored in the climate debate and discussion
of what the future may look like beyond 2030. This article reveals how
they see the world, what they predict, and why we should be listening
to them.
Carbon emissions
from sourcing, refining, and using fossil fuels for energy is the most
significant factor in causing climate change. We are already experiencing
disrupted weather patterns and extreme events, but predicting what the
consequences of climate change will be in another few decades is challenging.
- Image: AP Photo
Losing the signal amongst the noise
Our media and social landscape
are awash with scattered opinions, lies, and mistruths - finding unbiased
and trustworthy information is hard enough to come by, let alone recognize.
On the one hand, doomsday
reports declare we only have a few more years till the apocalypse is
upon us. This reporting style is characterized by overly-simplistic
language and focuses on temperature and sea-level rise measurements.
There's an almost endless
emergence of projects, initiatives, and social enterprises that promise
that it's their solutions that will avert this impending collapse. Each
organization spins its own story in a bid to outshine others and convince
the audience that they are our saviors and the sole tellers of truth.
On the other hand, many
politicians and those supporting the status quo seek to downplay concerns
to prevent alarm or emphasize power and control. Science and research
institutes are often accused of exaggerating and manipulating data to
increase their funding. Likewise, journalists also continue to face
difficulties in the face of collapsing business models and an overly-opinionized
media landscape.
Trying to forecast how
economics and society will behave is near impossible and the current
void of uncertainty and bias has muddied the waters even further. It's
difficult enough to imagine anything about our present let alone our
future.
The military and insurance
industries have the most at stake and can't afford to play games. They
are more pragmatic and realistic in how they view the world and offer
great insight into how humanity will adapt.
Our militaries and insurance industries are the most pragmatic reliable
predictors, not for climate change per se, but how we will overcome
and cope with the regularity and uncertainty of extreme weather events.
- Image: Vallarie Enriquez/NASA
What militaries and
the insurance sector predict
It's not always easy to
find, but accurate and neutral modeling to predict the most probable
socio-economic and political impacts are in the public domain and available
for all to see.
Firstly, the world's militaries,
particularly the largest, have a host of reports available analyzing
and projecting future outcomes. Many are risk assessments focused on
current geopolitical weaknesses and crisis points that climate change
will only expose and exaggerate. Militaries must plan for this and disregard
any grandstanding that too many others in the debate prioritize.
Secondly, predictions and
assessments of the global insurance industry are built from the need
for managing liabilities and preventing losses. In either case, overvaluing
or undervaluing their expenses after the fact will destroy their business
model and their sustainability.
Even though they approach
from different perspectives, these two groups inherently serve pragmatic
needs. Neither engages in the social and political debate on if man-made
climate change is real or not, and neither is seeking to gain support,
validation, or votes from anyone.
Most importantly, neither
group joins in the chorus of souls offering overly-optimistic suggestions
about preventing climate change. Both industries work on the assumption
that it won't be stopped and accept its inevitability, the reality we
will face, and the real risks that will manifest.
These industries talk more
about the impact on economics, the domestic and border security of nations,
and the expectations for how insurance works and the increased financial
risk.
Over the past several years, as climate-related disasters have increased
in occurrence and severity, the military has more regularly managed
and facilitated vital rescue and clean-up missions. - Image: AP Photo/Sang
Tan
The future state of our
climate
Sober predictions from
the military and insurance world came about after seeing how society
reacted to changes in climate. The observations go back to the early
1990s, but a similar pattern is predicted to shape our future and gives
insight into what life may be like towards 2050.
Very few insiders or academics
worth their weight in salt would be bold enough to suggest they know
exactly how the world and how our climate will be like so far into the
future. However, there is consensus that we won't be experiencing any
dramatic shifts - our world will not suddenly flip upside down. Significant
changes may happen but only in a series of small and incremental steps
- much like the ones we are currently experiencing today.
The U.S. Department of
Defense in 2019 said that "it is relevant to point out that [the]
future... means only 20 years" time and that "projected changes
will likely be more pronounced at the mid-century mark." (1) They
also reveal that nothing unseen will happen - we are currently dealing
with the impacts of climate change as they have already begun to spread
across regions.
Both the military and insurance
sectors agree that a slow increase in the frequency of extreme weather
events and the compounding effect on others will be the norm. Looking
even closer into our future, as a primary insurance industry report
on climate change bluntly states: "due to slow, gradual change,
the climate state of 2030 will not differ significantly from today."
(2) In other words, with the passing of another decade, the extreme
weather events will be similar to what we are seeing now - yet slightly
increased in volatility and occurrence. The insurance industry is gambling
an inconceivably large amount on this outcome but has determined it
will work in their favor.
While never offering definitive
or Nostradamus-style predictions and pointing to a specific date, the
military and insurance industries can conceptualize and build a relatively
clear understanding and predict what societal changes will happen.
We will all be in it together
- it will not only be the undeveloped and poorer countries that many
wrongly assume. As the impacts from climate change intensify across
all regions, we may become a species based on recovering from previous
disasters while preparing for the next. (3)
As major rivers are decreasing in flow and aquifers become depleted,
it's predicted desertification and the ability to sustain agriculture
will exponentially decrease in our most vulnerable regions. - Image:
nfu.org
Food supply, rising
costs and political insecurity
The impacts of climate
change are vast and currently unseen by many. However, a place where
everyone will be able to witness it is the rising cost in food prices
and supply chains - a long-term and upward trend for some time already.4
Droughts contribute to
this and as they become more common, so does desertification. We see
this already in cases like the Colorado River, where changing weather
patterns have reduced annual flow, threatening the sustainability of
many large cities and farmlands in the driest parts of the U.S. and
Mexico.5
A failed harvest has more
profound and persistent side effects than simply a lack of food. It
threatens farms' economic viability and the survival of entire regions.
This outcome will see a rise in claims by both individual and corporate
farms to mitigate losses, and as risks become more significant, growth
in claims and rise in insurance premiums.
The Department of Agriculture
in the U.S. has mitigated the damage from increased claim-related costs
by capping the amount paid by insurance companies. Anything beyond that,
and most insurance companies get funding via brokers and banks.
However, the financing
of these subsidy schemes comes directly from the U.S. Government's tax
revenue, which utilizes brokers as middlemen.6 This band-aid solution
has already cost U.S. taxpayers approximately US$65 billion between
2000-2016 and will continue to add to future costs and economic woes.
Despite difficulties,
wealthier and more developed nations will have a much better chance
to sustain their economies. As environmental stability and the adaptability
of farmers in poorer countries decrease, the need to constantly reassess
their economic sustainability increases - despite the need for local
action, we also need to look at the viability of such financial programs
from a global and political perspective.
There has been a long and sustained increase in food costs, showing
no signs of easing. Increasing food prices and unaffordability of certain
goods has proven to be a key indicator in social dissatisfaction and
likely unrest. - image: Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press
The credibility of
a nation-state, at least in part, lies in its ability to provide reliable
and affordable food to its citizens. Climate change threatens to increase
and compound the effects of any current food shortages, which will inherently
increase prices and threaten a community's autonomy.
When prices for groceries
increase to unacceptable levels, the most natural outcome is for citizens
to become upset and complain. The next step, if possible, would be to
vote in someone new who promises to address the issue. But when democracy
is weak and elections fail to bring the correct change, food insecurity
acts as a psychological and emotional accelerant, often stoking a relatively
minor issue to become much worse.
The Arab Spring in the
early 2010s was a prime example of this. What began in Algeria as a
single protest for democratic reform against a backdrop of food and
water insecurity across the entire Middle East. Shortly after the initial
demonstration, a dozen other nations erupted in protest and riots, the
side-effects we still see in countries like Libya and Syria. (7)
In the same region, the
U.S. military acknowledged that "a severe drought in Syria from
2009 to 2012 negatively impacted the agriculture industry, stoking unrest
that led the nation into its ongoing civil war." (8)
When looking to the future,
the most pressing climate change-related issue in 2050, from national
security and militarized point of view, will be increased geopolitical
volatility, likely exacerbated by food insecurity and other associated
matters.
Sea levels have been rising and will continue to cause large-scale flooding
and erosion. Both militaries and insurance providers agree that it won't
be significant singular events. Instead, we will see a series of small
and incremental damages over many years. - Image: Getty/The Hill
Our seas will
continue to rise
The insurance and military
accept that sea level will rise and produce sustained and costly impacts.
The United States Naval College at Annapolis is a well-documented and
poignant example of how this will happen.
The U.S. Department of
Defense conducted a series of studies about projected flooding rates
at the college site. They concluded that the academy "is expecting
the sea level to rise between 0.6 and 3.6 feet by 2050, putting most
of the campus at risk of flooding. The academy will be faced with the
tough decision of either mitigating the risk by investing a significant
amount of money to install pumps and barriers or by abandoning parts
of the campus altogether." (9)
This base is just one of
the 70 within the U.S. that will be similarly affected within the same
time frame. The DoD focused purely upon the impact upon their bases
only. While military bases rarely exist in residential areas, we can
expect a similar effect on other civilian areas.
The starkest aspect to
the DoD's assessment is the socially pragmatic assessment, despite being
written by a body focused on geopolitical risk assessment. They own
a lot of lands, and to quote them: "The DoD's global property holdings
are worth nearly $1.2 trillion. As the frequency of extreme weather
events has increased, the DoD must consider the related risks and make
wise investment decisions to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather
on the DoD's mission." (10)
If the owner of a US$1.2
trillion property portfolio begins talking about abandoning their sea-front
properties, as they are unviable for the next twenty to thirty years,
how can any other landowner not do the same?
Insurance premiums in these
affected places have already begun to increase, more extreme weather
events will follow, and the cycle will repeat. It will become increasingly
difficult and expensive to live in coastal areas. Hence, it will affect
any region's economic and environmental sustainability.
Wealthier nations will
have better chances of constructing more extensive flood defenses. However,
the increase in government spending may lead to complaints from other
regions about why they should fund such protection.
Despite defense systems,
sudden surges from large storms will still have dramatic and devastating
effects on populations in areas that cannot predict or prepare for them.
A prime example of such an event was when Hurricane Katrina hit New
Orleans and the subsequent departure of over 100,000 people leaving
the region with most yet to return. (11)
The need to pay for the
construction and maintenance of protecting such places will only add
to the difficulties of flood-prone regions. The Bank of England's insurance
industry watchdog revealed that Lloyd's of London estimated that "20cm
of sea-level rise since the 1950s increased Superstorm Sandy's (2012)
surge losses by 30% in New York alone." (12)
The military
and insurance industry acknowledge that rising sea levels are inevitable,
along with widespread flooding and erosion. However, both suggest this
won't happen suddenly and will likely be seen as a more gradual increase
in relatively small events. We will recover, despite how inconvenient
and disruptive.
As climate change makes life in some regions more complicated, many
will leave, placing added pressures on existing and introducing new
geopolitical and social tensions. The results of many of these mass
migrations will mean that governments will have even less time and resources
to address climate impacts. - Image: REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger
Increased displacement
of peoples
The displacement of people
caused by political stress, either triggered or made worse by climate
change, is a harsh reality of modern times. Nowhere is it more evident
than on the southern U.S. border.
In July 2021, the Centre
for Climate and Security said that the number of refugees from El Salvador,
Guatemala, and Honduras has increased each year consistently since 2012.
A majority of them "come from Central America's Dry Corridor (CADC)...
where extreme climatic events like prolonged droughts, coffee rust outbreak,
and climate-induced disasters have seriously exacerbated social, economic,
environmental and political vulnerabilities." (13)
These crises are expected
to become more widespread as we move forward and more extreme climate-related
events spread to different regions. In addition to international pressures,
individual nations will also see significant population shifts within
their borders, increasing challenges to those militaries, many of whom
will be forced to deploy assets and help where existing infrastructure
fails.
It should
be noted that large movements of people are never solely due to climate
change alone. Instead, it is usually combined with political, economic,
and other social pressures, often resulting from extreme weather events
and changes. The subject of refugees is emotive and takes up much political
capital. Hence, it raises the crucial question of how we will respond
to widespread displacement.
Investors and insurance firms are becoming increasingly more aware of
climate change and how it will affect markets and certain industries.
Something seen to be more sustainable to climate change is less risky
and more attractive for those seeking longer-term gains. - Image: Reuters
Entrenched
economic woes
Trying to work out how
climate change affects us is difficult enough in the current era, let
alone predicting what it will be like in another thirty years. However,
specific indicators can help gain a more profound overview of the insurance
industries' concerns.
The economic predictions
for the 2030-2050 period are grim. A recent U.S. government report revealed
that "the impacts of climate change beyond our borders are expected
to increasingly affect our trade and economy... [and] cause substantial
net damage to the U.S. economy throughout this century. Annual losses
in some economic sectors are projected to reach hundreds of billions
of dollars... more than the current gross domestic product (GDP) of
many U.S. states." (14)
A British insurance report
mimicked this stark prognosis by stating how the "2011 Thai floods
caused US$45 billion of economic damage, which resulted in US$12 billion
of insurance payments including claims arising from second-order effects
such as supply chain interruption of global manufacturing firms."
(15)
The insurance industry
doesn't just ensure physical objects like buildings and stock. It has
been insuring derivatives and other investments for years. It's their
assessment of future risk management in the economic sector and how
they identify the upcoming risk that is perhaps the most crucial insight
into the needs of the future.
Climate change is affecting
the global financial structure, and The Geneva Report revealed in 2019
how our world is shifting from a valuation perspective to a more systemic
and sustainable approach. It showed that "investors are beginning
to account for the effects that transitioning to lower-carbon economies
may have on the long-term earning potential of carbon-intensive sectors."
Also, there is an increasingly common tendency for investors to "consider
the impact of climate change when making investment acquisition and
disposition decisions." (16)
In other words, carbon-intensive
business is becoming a much greater risk, and investors are beginning
to take note. Sustainable and more systemic investing that takes on
the inevitability of economic disruption and seeks more long-term solutions
becomes about more than just ethics and has the potential to become
profitable.
Even fossil-fuel-heavy
industries such as automotive, manufacturing, and air travel are beginning
to move away from a purely profit-driven ideology and to a more rational
one that assesses all possible risks involved in doing business as usual.
This change is a significant and positive step.
The past few years have seen many unforeseen disasters, such as the
devastating flooding of the Ahr Valley in Germany, July 2021. It makes
one wonder - are we now living in the dystopian future we had imagined
for the future? - Image: AP/Michael Probst
Our dystopian present
This article summarizes
the work done and forecasts made by risk management and security experts.
At first, one may think it suggests a rather grim and uncomfortable
world, whereby 2050, the impacts of climate change carry our civilization
from crisis to crisis. Political demagoguery, food insecurity, higher
prices, and shortages will be commonplace for all.
It suggests a world of
increasing economic volatility. The only constant will be the environmental
crises and streams of refugees who we'll be too busy dealing with than
to care about climate change.
It sounds dystopian, but
it's worth considering - could it also be an accurate description of
the world as it is now?
There is one crucial example:
let's consider July 2021.
During this one month alone,
our world witnessed record heat blooms over the Pacific Northwest, killing
over 500 people in British Columbia. (17) At the same time, record heatwaves
were experienced in both Scandinavia and New Zealand. (18) (19) The
sad reality is that excessive heat has killed over 5 million people
since 2000 and will continue to do so. (20)
During the same July, we
also saw unprecedented flooding and damage in Europe and China. (21)
(22) It was estimated all worldwide flooding impacted up to two billion
people. (23)
Had we, in
1991, said that in thirty years, events of this scale and disruption
would be witnessed in just one month, people would have dismissed it
as a dystopian and exaggerated view. And yet, this is not the case today.
Both the military and insurance industries seem to be less driven by
mitigating against disaster, and instead focus more on adaptation and
coping with their inevitability and subsequent rebuilding. - Image:
Fairfield City Champion
We have successfully
normalized the encroachment of climate change and extreme weather events
over the last 30 years. While the entire world recognizes the dangers,
we still don't see a coming together of nations in cooperation.
Instead, we see widespread
complacency and an acceptance of these events. In reality, most of these
weather events are localized and don't affect most. Those who live through
disastrous events continue to exist and cope with whatever life brings
us.
What was once unseen and
horrific has become the norm. There's no evidence to suggest that as
we approach 2050, and as these events happen more often, we will respond
any differently.
The world described in
the reports from our militaries and insurance industries work upon these
simple unspoken axioms. However, the nations where these industries
work will continue doing what they do; although perhaps a little differently.
Our world will gradually experience another new normal where, sadly,
the world's less fortunate will be the most impacted. While relatively
undisturbed, the rest of the world is likely to become accustomed and
perhaps numb to the new realities.
A source for hope
Based on this assessment,
one may easily conclude there is little we can do to avoid the disaster
to come, right?
Nothing could be further
from the truth. Making projections like this, paying close attention
to stakeholders and their future assessments, is invaluable for those
seeking pragmatic and practical solutions.
We can't avoid the effects
of climate change, but we can shape our response. We can prevent errors
and inaction by developing sustainable policy and behavioral changes
now that will help us face the next century's inevitable climate realities.
Until we invent time travel,
these predictions remain the closest to empirical data. Recognizing
this and respecting parameters offers the most practical and effective
way to plan and shape our future.
Dr. Hardy Schloer in Interview by Chris Edwards in June 2022
In this head-on Interview Dr. Hardy Schloer talks about the world we
live in, and the world to be. No subject was avoided, with all the current
tough issued taken head on in a fascinating 1 hour and 40-minute roundup
of the global ecosphere. Focus of the interview was directed towards
many subjects, such as megatrends, macroeconomics, the status of the
USA in the world, superpower competition, crypto currencies, global
political trends, climate change, law and trade, and most of all the
social ecology of political choices made by different global societies.
Credits
Hardy Schloer
CEO & Founder, Schloer Consulting Group
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates https://scg-world.com
Chris Edwards President, Oktium Middle East
United Arab Emirates https://oktium.com
It is more
urgent than ever for Europe to become self-sufficient in energy. This
is accompanied by major power shifts, both within and outside the EU.
What will the energy transition mean for geopolitical relations?
Brussels wants to go green
at lightning speed - and thus become less dependent on Russian gas and
oil from the Middle East. As head of the cabinet of Frans Timmermans,
Diederik Samsom is currently working in Brussels on 'his' Green Deal.
According to Samsom, the need to be energy independent is greater than
ever. The ambition is to extract the necessary green raw materials as
close as possible, and preferably in Europe itself.
EU candidate member Serbia
has become a contested field on the green raw materials chessboard because
of this ambition. The country is rich in copper and lithium. The Chinese
mining giant Zijin has already made headway there and recently opened
a large copper mine, important for the construction of wind turbines.
But the EU is also looking
at Serbian raw materials with interest. And especially lithium. That
mineral is in the ground in the Jadar Valley. The plans of mining company
Rio Tinto have been put on hold by the government because of a massive
popular uprising against the arrival of the mine. Many Serbs are not
waiting for the lithium economy to arrive in their country.
Your Whole Body Digital Twin™ is a dynamic,
digital representation of your unique metabolism, built from thousands
of data points gathered daily from non-invasive wearable sensors and
self-reported preferences. Your Twin delivers individualized guidance
to help you reverse and prevent multiple chronic metabolic diseases.
Chronic metabolic disease
is causing havoc on human life. Over a billion people suffer from Metabolic
Syndrome, and the number is growing. Diabetes alone afflicts hundreds
of millions of people globally.
At Twin Health, we invented
the Whole Body Digital Twin™ to reverse and prevent multiple chronic
metabolic diseases. Such diseases have a single root cause — a
damaged metabolism. Human metabolism is so extremely complex and dynamic
that until now it has not been possible to solve for the root cause.
I realized the latest advancements in sensors, AI and digital twin technology
can be combined with advanced medical science to precisely solve the
root cause for the first time. This inspired us to create the Whole
Body Digital Twin™.
Our clinical research team
is conducting the world’s first randomized controlled trial for
reversing chronic metabolic disease using digital twin technology. Trial
data published in the American Diabetes Association’s Diabetes
journal shows first-of-their-kind health outcomes.
Remedy Health Media is a leading digital platform that serves millions
of patients, caregivers and healthcare professionals with information
and insights to effectively navigate the healthcare landscape.
Remedy Health Media’s mission is to empower patients and caregivers
with information and tools to efficiently navigate the healthcare landscape,
and as a result, achieve better health utilizing our family of healthcare
destinations.
Our robust digital platforms offers emotionally
engaging health content, self-help tools, and real patient stories that
connect with millions of readers. Through the lens of those living with
chronic illness and their caregivers, we provide the means to protect
and enhance their health so they can enjoy rich, fulfilling lives.
And we serve a community of healthcare professionals
with the goal of giving them instant access to expert opinions and the
most current information to help them deliver the best possible care
to their patients.
We are passionate about
sharing inspiring stories from real patients, publishing in-depth condition-specific
content from real experts to support communities of patients, caregivers
and HCPs.
Ray Dalio: "I believe the world is changing in big
ways that haven’t happened before in our lifetimes but have many
times in history, so I knew I needed to study past changes to understand
what is happening now and help me to anticipate what is likely to happen.
I shared what I learned in my book, Principles
for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and my hope is that this
animation gives people an easy way to understand the key ideas from
the book in a simple and entertaining way. In the first 18 minutes,
you’ll get the gist of what drives the “Big Cycle” of
rise and decline of nations through time and where we now are in that
cycle. If you give me 20 minutes more to watch the whole thing, and
I will show you how the big cycle worked across the last 500 years of
history — and what the current world leading power, the United
States, needs to do to remain strong.
Ray Dalio
A global macro
investor for more than 50 years, Ray Dalio founded Bridgewater Associates
out of his two-bedroom apartment in NYC and ran it for most of its 47
years, building it into the largest hedge fund in the world. Ray remains
an investor and mentor at Bridgewater and serves on its board. He is
also the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles: Life and
Work, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and Principles
for Navigating Big Debt Crises. He graduated with a B.S. in Finance
from C.W. Post College in 1971 and received an MBA degree from Harvard
Business School in 1973. He has been married to his wife, Barbara, for
more than 40 years and has three grown sons and five grandchildren.
He is an active philanthropist with special interests in ocean exploration
and helping to rectify the absence of equal opportunity in education,
healthcare, and finance.
This book
is aimed at a general mining audience wanting to understand the future
of the mining sector. In some of the areas covered in the book, there
are mining companies which are leading and some that are falling far
behind. In addition, some of the concepts discussed are starting to
emerge in the mining sector; others are not. The contents of the book
articulate a vision for futuristic mining. They discuss concepts of
futuristic mining and operating models, and present compelling arguments
about where the industry should be heading in terms of AI and sustainability.
The book highlights how
a mining company can thrive in all the complex scenarios and highly
volatile markets. It is written at a level to ensure that anyone in
the mining industry or new to mining industry can easily follow the
content, from university students to senior executives and people transitioning
from operational roles to technology roles in mining. Technology is
changing at an ever-increasing pace, so some new technologies will be
emerging, and some may become obsolete. The book also highlights how
technology and innovation will revolutionise the world of mining in
the coming years. The information is presented so as not to expose uplift
numbers and client details. Names of start-ups have not been included
as they can become obsolete due to the nature of start-ups.
It should be emphasised
that each and every individual who works in this industry needs to make
this futuristic mining journey happen. Hopefully the ideas put forward
will inspire members of the mining industry to think differently and
to define, deploy and transform a particular mining company. AI and
sustainable business models are rapidly becoming the new norm in the
mining sector. Industries that do not constantly learn and adapt will
fall behind and miss out on important commercial opportunities. Over
time this translates into missed profits and threats to company survival.
Kash
Sirinanda
Kash Sirinanda is a futurist, an engineer, a mathematician,
a consultant and a serial entrepreneur. He is the founder of Mine
Connector, Mine Mutual, Elite Futurists, and Cofounder of
Mine Care, and has a doctorate in mine planning and optimization from
the University of Melbourne, Australia. Kash has been working on various
mining projects which include due diligence, AI, operations, analytics,
optimization and digital in different commodities around the globe.
He is a keynote speaker and he provides mining leaders with strategic
direction, and visionary leadership. He constantly challenges current
business models in mining companies to be open to possibilities in innovation
and technology and to build a better future for the mining sector.
Thoughts and feelings are integral to understanding mankind. Most of
the mental processing happens outside of conscious awareness. In order
to dig a little deeper, the implicit association test (IAT) allows us
insight into parts of the mind that people "are unable to express,
either because they do not want to, or because they do not even know
they possess them" (Smith and Nosek, 2010). Let's see how that
spins out in creativity and the biases hindering creativity.
The hedgehog, the fox
and Tim Cook
Two years of development, thousands of engineering hours and Apple's
new product was ready for a spectacular launch. Or not? Something was
holding it back: the disagreement between the CEO, Tim Cook and Apple's
chief designer Jony Ives. The usual known battle between numbers and
creativity. Ive was Apple's secret weapon, its creative core. He was
the man behind the clear and pure lines. Cook wanted the marketing in
the lead and not the design, let alone letting Ives run the launch.
Under Jobs it had been obvious that Ives was in total control of design,
and launch was part of design. In Wall Street the financial community
feared that if Ives ever left it would shave off a significant share
of the value of Apple. Well, after a disagreement he did leave, to be
hired back later as a consultant. What is behind this fear of creative
thinking and why do managers shrink back from creative and sometimes
unorthodox solutions? To find out we need to take a closer look at human
cognition.
Creativity and why we
don't like it
We applaud creativity but we don't like it. We like it in children because
then it is still harmless but in grown-ups and especially colleagues,
we are afraid of the disruptive quality of their creativity. There is
even a strong association between the concept of creativity and other
negative associations like vomit and poison. These words come from the
mouth of Jack Goncola, a business professor at the University
of Illinois at Urban Champaign. Goncola has spent the last decade studying
the underlying factors that motivate and hinder creators, innovators
and change agents. In the fast-changing environment of modern business
this has become a pressing question for many managers and leaders.
Don't rock the boat
Studies show that we lean towards the status quo. A.k.a. don't rock
the boat; we harbour an implicit belief that status quo means safety
and seek protection in the group we work with. Yet creativity is always
lauded as the life blood of business and life changing innovations,
spellbinding entertainment, and great art. However, preceding that appreciation
is usually a threshold that stops ideas, or concepts taking hold, surviving
and let alone being executed. Who doesn't know the frustration when
it seems that you are standing ankle deep in the organizational mud?
In the way of change
The science ofimplicit bias shows that what people say about creativity
isn't necessarily how they really feel about it. And that doesn't only
go for creativity.
In social identity theory, an implicit biasis an unconscious association,
belief, or attitude toward any social group. Due to implicit biases,
people may often attribute certain qualities or characteristics to all
members of a particular group, a phenomenon known as stereotyping. In
many circumstances the implicit bias can and will get in the way of
change. The behaviour of shirking away from creativity caused by implicit
bias affect many areas of the organization, such as marketing, sales
and above all innovation. We think that the current definition of implicit
bias is too reductionist and that this bias can affect organizations,
markets and brands. The reason behind that is that these areas are heavily
influenced by creativity. Especially in Organizational Change Management
(OCM)it can be a serious roadblock on the way to lasting and meaningful
change.
Implicit and explicit
As mentioned at the beginning, it is important to realize that implicit
biases operate almost entirely on an unconscious level. While explicit
biases and prejudicesare intentional and controllable, implicit biases
are less so. Sneakily hiding behind socially acceptable behaviour or
linguistically appropriate noises they can expose the dark side of the
organization. Staff and co-workers may even express explicit disapproval
or approval of a certain creative idea, attitude or belief while still
harbouring similar biases on a more unconscious level.
The reason for this implicit bias against creativity can be traced back
to the fundamentally disruptive nature of novel concepts, plans, and
original creations.
There is always the uncertainty of undesirable results, backlash, and
loss of face that will create unrest and instability. The urge to avert
risk is very strong and Dr Mueller of the University of San Diego noticed
many CEOs and company managers professed to want creativity but reflexively
turned down novel ideas. Be careful what you wish for, seems to be the
right expression here. Only every once and a while a Steve Jobs or Elon
Musk comes along who forces his (creative and business) vision on the
organization to show us that biases can and will work disruptively as
we have mentioned above in the case of Jon Ives and Tim Cook.
Nodding heads and leadership
Needless to state that implicit biases against the new can and will
seriously hamper changes that are necessary in an organization. Who
needs nodding heads around a meeting table or in a strategy meeting
when leadership needs to convince or even tempt stakeholders, management,
or workers that changes are the way forward. Leaders will say "we're
innovative" and when the idea goes nowhere, the employees are angry
or afraid. Especially middle managers who are expected to meet the metrics
of change are faced with a career threatening paradigm. This creates
a conundrum because organizations in uncertain circumstances may really
need creative solutions. It is the role of leadership to recognize the
processes and biases that get in the way of creativity and change. To
facilitate staff, take away barriers and accept that mistakes will be
made on the road to change. The way to do that maybe by looking at the
mindset that is prevalent in an organization.
Growth Mindset and Fixed
Mindset
Why are some people devastated by failures and setbacks whereas others
find ways to learn from failures and rebound? Stanford professor Carol
Dweck answered this question by introducing the terms growth mindset
and fixed mindset. Dweck has held the position of Professor of Psychology
at Stanford University since 2004, teaching developmental psychology,
theories of the self and independent studies.
Growth mindset is the understanding that abilities are flexible and
can be developed through effort and resilience. The fixed mindset, on
the other hand, is the belief that abilities are innate and cannot be
changed. Growth mindset has been applied to corporate environments and
has been found to increase overall productivity and performance. Intuitively
this seems to make total sense. Norms of innovation encourage novel
ideas and approaches which help develop new products or services. Employees
that exhibit a fixed mindset usually follow the same routines leading
to the same outcomes. However, in companies that value growth mindset
employees are empowered to innovate and progress. 49% of employees in
GM companies report that the company fosters innovation.
Peter van Gorsel,
former Dean of the Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences now works
with various companies in Gamification, storytelling and applied neurosciences.
Neurofied
is a management consulting
and training
company specialized in Brain & Behavior. We help teams and organizations
design, implement, and optimize their change
management, growth strategy, learning & development and
much more with insights from behavioral psychology and neuroscience.
Since 2018, we have trained 1500+ professionals and worked with 50+
teams of companies like ABN AMRO, Tesla, Calvin Klein, and Adidas. We
are also frequent speakers at universities and conferences.
How does artificial intelligence affect climate change?
Artificial intelligence could help in the fight against climate change.
AI applications could help design more energy-efficient buildings, improve
power storage and optimise renewable energy deployment by feeding solar
and wind power into the electricity grid as needed.
How will artificial intelligence change
the environment?
AI can in the future be applied to thousands of issues affecting the
environment. For example using AI and data from NASA, researchers are
able to identify patterns and monitor changes of land surfaces, such
as decreasing sea area, ice caps surface area which can be used to determine
future risks.
Source: Google
Currently the agricultural sector is emitting
the fourth highest level of greenhouse gases. Switching to responsible
robotic machinery can reduce the level of harmful emissions produced.
Moving away from “traditional” fossil-fuelled machinery to
using robots charged from renewable energy sources, such as wind and
light, will help reduce these harmful emissions.
With
climate change comes increased adverse weather conditions and more frequent
droughts. As excess heat struggles to leave the Earth’s surface,
moisture is taken from soil, leaving crops struggling to survive. These
droughts lead to food insecurity, which is especially harmful in poorer,
rural communities.
To help combat these issues, a team at
the University of Missouri is using robots to collect data with the
ultimate aim of developing drought tolerant crops. Using 3D technology,
the team is able to study crops in greater detail, gaining a more thorough
understanding of the reasons why some crops are able to grow during
droughts. The objective is to gain enough data necessary to develop
new types of drought-resilient crops.
Climate Change AI (CCAI) is an organization composed of volunteers from
academia and industry who believe that tackling climate change requires
concerted societal action, in which machine learning can play an impactful
role. Since it was founded in June 2019 (and established as a US domestic
non-profit on June 14, 2021), CCAI has led the creation of a global
movement in climate change and machine learning, encompassing researchers,
engineers, entrepreneurs, investors, policymakers, companies, and NGOs.
EcoRobotix offers precise, reliable and affordable robotic solutions,
which make farmers’ lives easier in producing healthy food.
We develop, manufacture and commercialise innovating, energy-saving
farming machines, which allow both the ecological impact of modern farming
and its costs to be reduced.
We thus contribute to the
emergence of farming which respects the environment, focused on preserving
soils and hydrological resources, by using a minimal amount of energy.
The STREP PLANTOID Project
will aim at designing, prototyping, and validating a new generation of
ICT hardware and software technologies inspired from plant roots, called
PLANTOIDS, endowed with distributed sensing, actuation, and intelligence
for tasks of environmental exploration and monitoring. PLANTOIDS take
inspiration from, and aim at imitating, the amazing penetration, exploration,
and adaptation capabilities of plant roots.
Plants have evolved very
robust growth behaviours to respond to changes in their environment
and a network of highly sensorized branching roots to efficiently explore
the soil volume, mining minerals and up-taking water. PLANTOID has two
major goals:
1) to abstract and synthesize
with robotic artefacts the principles that enable plant roots to effectively
and efficiently explore and adapt to underground environments;
2) to formulate scientifically testable hypotheses and models of some
unknown aspects of plant roots, such as the role of local communication
among root apices during adaptive growth and the combination of rich
sensory information to produce collective decisions.
The PLANTOID artefact will
be composed of a network of sensorized and actuated roots, displaying
rich sensing and coordination capabilities as well as energy-efficient
actuation and high sustainability, typical of the Plant Kingdom. Each
PLANTOID root will consist of an apex that comprises sensors, actuators,
control units, and by an elongation zone that mechanically connects
the apex and the trunk of the robot. The new technologies expected to
result from PLANTOID concern energy-efficient actuation systems, chemical
and physical micro-sensors, sensor fusion techniques, kinematics models,
and distributed, adaptive control in networked structures with local
information and communication capabilities. The foundational research
program of PLANTOID will be carried out by a consortium of engineers,
plant biologists, and computer scientists with demonstrated experience
in interdisciplinary work.
SkyGrow aims to have a legacy
of helping all others and we believe that the best way to achieve this
is through planting Trees. Trees when planted and harvested correctly
are a sustainable resource that can provide jobs, food, shelter, clean
air and water and can be used to reset our economy to create a fairer,
smarter and greener world. Unfortunately land continues to be cleared
and species continue to be lost at an unprecedented rate. The impacts
of climate change are intensifying and existing greenhouse gas emission
statistics indicate that Australia is likely to fall short of meeting
it’s Paris Agreement obligations of reducing emissions by 26-28 percent
below the 2005 level (559.1 Mt CO2-e). Planting more Trees is a real solution
to our environmental, societal and economic issues. On average 1.4 Trees
absorb 1 tonne of Carbon Dioxide. This means that for Australia to meet
the Paris Agreement and to absorb the required amount of Carbon Dioxide
(156.5 Mt CO2-e) we could aim to be planting 220 Million Trees per year
by 2030. At the very least, planting anywhere near this number would provide
huge benefits to Australia. The real problem is that existing techniques
are either slow or unsafe and the technologies that exist are expensive
to operate and destructive to the environment. SkyGrow’s solution
is to provide the world with fleets of autonomous Tree-planting ‘Growbots’
that aim to solve these problems. Our Growbots will be powered by renewable
energy, plant using Global Positioning Systems and are operated by having
two operators using a laptop to control a fleet of four Growbots. Although
it is a huge challenge, we believe that implementing Growbots could create
a green industry revolution and provide a scalable solution for creating
better environmental, community and economic outcomes across Earth.
Smart Farming: How Robots
and AI Can Help Us with Farming | Farming Technology
by DW Shift
The Future of Farming Robots - 13 High Tech Examples by VentureX - Future Tech
John L Petersen
Founder of The Arlington
Institute
John L. Petersen
is considered by many to be one of the most informed futurists in the
world. He is best-known for writing and thinking about high impact surprises
— wild cards — and the process of surprise anticipation. He
edits and publishes an internationally acclaimed e-newsletter, FUTUREdition,
which highlights weak signals and early indicators of significant futures.
John conceived of, designed and developed the world's first national
surprise anticipation center for the country of Singapore.
His current professional
involvements include investing in and developing resources for both
large, international projects and breakthrough technology start-up companies
that have the potential of significantly changing the world. He is also
the developer of a multi-use real estate project. .
John has led national non-profit
organizations, worked in sales, manufacturing, real estate development,
and marketing and advertising, mostly for companies he founded. A graduate
electrical engineer, he has also promoted rock concerts; owned and produced
conventions; and worked as a disc jockey – among other things.
Mr. Petersen's government
and political experience include stints at the National War College,
the Institute for National Security Studies, the Office of the Secretary
of Defense, and the National Security Council staff at the White House.
He was a naval flight officer in the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserve and
is a decorated veteran of both the Vietnam and Persian Gulf wars. He
has served in senior positions for a number of presidential political
campaigns and was an elected delegate to the Democratic National Convention
in 1984. He was twice the runner-up candidate to be the Secretary of
the Navy.
In 1989 Petersen founded
The
Arlington Institute
(TAI), a non-profit, future-oriented research institute. TAI operates
on the premise that effective thinking about the future is impossible
without casting a very wide net. The “think tank” serves as
a global agent for change by developing new concepts, processes and
tools for anticipating the future and translating that knowledge into
better present-day decisions.
An award-winning writer,
Petersen's first book, The
Road to 2015: Profiles of the Futurewas awarded Outstanding Academic Book of 1995 by CHOICE Academic
Review, and remained on The World Future Society's best-seller list
for more than a year. His second book, Out
of the Blue: How to Anticipate Wild Cards and Big Future Surprises,
was also a WFS best-seller. His coauthored article, “The
Year 2000: Social Chaos or Social Transformation?”
was published in six different publication and was one of the most highly
acclaimed writings on Y2K. His 1988 book-length report “The Diffusion
of Power: An Era of Realignment” was used at the highest levels
of American government as a basis for strategic planning. He has written
papers on the future of national security and the military, the future
of energy and the future of the media. John's third book, A
Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change, presents
a template for individuals and organizations for dealing with highly
uncertain futures.
Petersen is a past board
member of the World Future Society, writes on the future of aviation
for Professional Pilot magazine and is a member of the board of directors
of the Charles A. and Anne Morrow Lindbergh Foundation. He is a network
member of the Global Business Network and a fellow of the World Academy
of Art and Science. A provocative public speaker, he addresses a wide
array of audiences around the world on a variety of future subjects.
John is a licensed pilot
who enjoys aerobatic flying and an amateur radio operator. He lives
in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia with his wife, Diane.
