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DEVELOPMENT: An Obsolete Illusion or Obvious Challenges for the new Century?
Average reader rating: 0  
by Ton Dietz, University of Amsterdam 17 the future of Developing Countries

Club of Amsterdam event about the future of Developing Countries
November 30, 2004
Speech by Ton Dietz,
Professor of Human Geography at the University of Amsterdam,
Fellow of the Amsterdam Institute for International Development and
Scientific Director of CERES, the Netherlands Research School for Resource Studies for Development http://ceres.fss.uu.nl


THE EIGHT MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS FOR 2015,
compared with 1990
  1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
  • halve the proportion of people < 1 $/day (from 30 to 15%)
  • halve the proportion of hungry people
  1. Achieve universal primary education (from 72 to 100%)
  2. Promote gender equality (in education) and empower women
  3. Reduce child mortality by 2/3
  4. Improve maternal health (reduce maternal mortality by 2/3)
  5. Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria
  • reverse the spread of AIDS
  1. Ensure environmental sustainability
  • integrate in country policies
  • halve the proportion of people without access to potable water
  • improve the lives of 100 million slum dwellers
  1. Develop a global partnership for development
  • raise official development assistance
  • expand market access
Millennium development goals: progress (examples given):
See www.unmillenniumproject.org

And http://hdr.undp.org.reports/global/2003/pdf

"Developing countries" are no more: scattered mix of experiences of (rapid) economic growth and decline, and of globalisation and deglobalisation
And the "Third World" as a political category of non-aligned countries is no longer relevant.

Countries with (rapid) economic growth and (rapid) globalisation of trade 1980-2000 (category B), with (rapid) economic growth and relative deglobalisation of trade (category A), with economic decline and deglobalisation of trade (category C) and economic decline and (rapid) globalisation of trade (category D).


PREDICTIONS FOR 2050

What can we predict about the world's population and its 'development' in say 2050?

1) CONTINUED POPULATION GROWTH, particularly in Africa and Asia, and further reduction of demographic importance of Europe.

See: http://esa.un.org/unpp
and for Crosby: http://www2.kenyon.edu/Depts/Psci/Inst21/world_pop.htm
Europe includes Russia
2) AN URBAN WORLD

1960: 33% OF THE WORLD'S POPULATION WAS URBAN
2000: 45%
2030: 60%
2050: 66%

3) RISING DEMAND FOR SCARCE RESOURCES

OIL AND OTHER ENERGY SOURCES
WATER
MINERALS

4) FURTHER COMMUNICATION BREAKTHROUGHS + DIFFUSION OF COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY

5) MAJOR IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
NOT MITIGATION BUT ADAPTATION SHOULD BE CENTRAL CONCERN

6) GROWTH OF VULNERABILITY-INCREASING SHOCKS

RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE
RELATED TO ENVIRONMENTAL MISMANAGEMENT
RELATED TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND TECHNOLOGY
RELATED TO IDENTITY-MARKING BY TERRORISM

7) EQUALIZATION OF WAGE AND SALARY LEVELS

8) SHIFT OF INNOVATION CAPABILITY TO HIGH-TECH, LOW-REWARD ECONOMIES

9) GLOBALIZATION OF LABOUR and increased 'transnationality', and global migration flows.

10) INCREASED FLUIDITY AND INSTABILITY; RAPID CHANGES IN AREAS OF OPPORTUNITY AND AREAS OF THREATS, a) FAVOURING SHORT-TERM GAINS and b) UNDERMINING LONG-TERM CORPORATE INVESTMENTS



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